Lebanon proved a quagmire for Ehud Olmert too, after he launched a war in 2006 that demonstrated how exposed Israel’s northern communities were to Hezbollah’s rockets. The fallout helped pave Netanyahu’s path to victory and his second term as prime minister three years later.
 

And, having learned from that quagmire, ground troops would not be deployed. There is also a program with a U.N. "ground forces only" line in the way. Instead The engagement would be 99%+ air driven.

The people who have the most to fear are the human shields living in Beruit. Once violent Iranian troops launch weapons from a site it becomes an eligible target. Given al'Hezbollah use of hospitals, schools, and other critical civilian infrastructure as weapons depots, Beirut would rapidly become uninhabitable pushing 1MM+ refugees North. This is really the largest constraint to Israel action. Russia and Israel are allies, and Russia doesn't want millions of refugees flooding north into Syria surrounding Tartus. Russia and Israel would have to coordinate timing so that refugees flowed East instead.

Something else to consider. 20 years ago Iran-Saudi relations were much better, and Israel had very few options to strike directly at enemy command and control in Iran. With current Gulf politics and improved military systems Israel has many more options. If Ayatollah Khameni orders an Iranian al'Hezbollah offensive against Israel, there would almost certainly be retaliation against Iranian oil refineries (2) and possibly against targets in Tehran.

Over the past year, Israel’s ability to hit missile convoys as they pass through Syria has narrowed as Bashar Al Assad has regained control of Syrian territory and installed more sophisticated, Russian-made air defences.
 

Assad has acquired one S300 control unit and four launchers. As pointed out almost everywhere, including pro-Shia sources such as Southfront and The Saker (1), this does not meaningfully limit Israeli capabilities in Southern Syria.

Hezbollah and Iran view this growing stockpile of precision weapons – capable of hitting key military installations in Israel – as a vital restraint on Israel’s freedom to attack its neighbours.
 

First strike munitions can only be used on offense. And, Israel correctly identifies this capability as a prelude to invasion or simply attempted genocide. Israel's Iron Dome defenses have a good % shoot down capability. But, the only 100% solution is blowing up Iranian first strike weapons before they can be launched.

So how would an Iranian first strike play out:
-- Can Iranian al'Hezbollah kill or injure hundreds, possibly thousands, of Israeli Jews? Yes. This seems likely.
-- Would the Israeli response kill tens of thousands and injure hundred of thousands of Lebanese Muslims, many of whom are Sunni not Shia? Yes. This also seems likely.

It is hard to see how Iranian al'Hezbollah could lose 100:1 and spin it as a victory. Especially since many of the Lebanese casualties would be non-Shia that could easily turn on the Iranian forces.
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I willing to offer a deal. Iran regular and al'Hezbollah militia troops leave Syria in a verifiable manner. The number of Israeli strikes against Iranian targets deep within Syria would go to zero. Everybody wins. Except violent Iranian interests bent on exterminating Jews.

A viable peace proposal. I can almost hear the inevitable howls of protest from the "Trolls of Team Iran" already....

PEACE 😇

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(1) https://thesaker.is/why-s-300-in-syria-not-being-used-against-israeli-aircraft/

(2) unz.com and blogspot.com do not seem to be cooperating on this insert map.

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/_E-QOnTGFX_o/SHd6jAqwMAI/AAAAAAAADg4/RFi1V6wRJbk/s1600-h/iran-refineries.jpg

If this shows as a broken link for you feel free to locate your own map of potential targets via your preferred search engine -- "iranian refineries map"

Replies: @B456, @peterAUS, @Rabbitnexus

Trump's method for disseminating foreign policy is the result of SJW craziness making the world absurd. His methods make perfect sense and are absolutely necessary given the deranged loonies he is up against.

Bolton has long been regarded by those who still believe that Donald Trump actually has a heart and a mind as the eminence grise seated behind the throne who has encouraged the president’s bad angels. That may indeed be so, but leaks are now suggesting that the president has been disagreeing with his chief minister and marginalizing his presence in meetings.
 

You do understand that Trump has to push his message past the Soros Globalist media disinformation corps..... Don't you???? Institutions of mass deception like the New York Times, the Washington Post, CNN, and everyone's darling MSNBC.

Trump has been using Bolton as "Bad Cop" to manipulate the media decepticons into giving him positive coverage for some time now. Remember a couple months ago when he got a "Good Cop" story out of lefty puppets, like The Guardian (2), by publicly cancelling an airstrike?

This sort of thing reduces the victims of Trump Derangement Syndrome [TDS] to rabid mouth frothing incoherence. Those with more thought and less hysteria see the matter for what it is. The stories about recent disagreements with "Bad Cop" Bolton are yet more readily understood judo against the Fake Stream Media complex.

The Treasury Department added that the vessel was “blocked property” under an anti-terrorist order, and “anyone providing support to the Adrian Darya 1 risks being sanctioned.” ... It is, inevitably, being stalked by the United States Navy, which may or may not attempt to take control of it before it heads to shore in Lebanon or Syria.
 

Two reasons why the monitored tanker will be allowed to offload.

-1- Being a floating oil tank for Iran is a lesser crime. Breaking sanctions by being filmed delivering Iranian oil is a much more compelling one. Now that surface radar contact can be maintained 24/7 there is no chance of the tanker ghosting away unless there is a truly horrendous weather event or the tanker returns to the Atlantic.

-2- Can you imagine the ultra-lefty wailing that would occur on MSNBC if the captured tanker was to be burned at sea with its cargo? While I personally would obtain entertainment watching Rachel Maddow go even more Gonzo phweet than usual, Trump only provokes MSNBC when there is a specific purpose to be served. Absent that, it is much easier to dispose of the criminal vehicle if it empty. After it unloads it can be detained and either scrapped or scuttled based on its commercial value. The proceeds to be used to compensate victims of Iranian sponsored terror attacks.
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Trump's highly skilled diplomatic efforts are letting sociopath Ayatollah Khameni dig his own grave by over reacting. One of the great fears trying to hold the sanctions against Iran was non-cooperation by India, as a large purchaser of Iranian oil. By provoking Khameni, the U.S. and U.K. created a situation where Iran bravely held hostage the unarmed Indian crew of the Steno Impero for several weeks (1). As a result the Ayatollah has permanently slammed shut the door on good relations and oil sales with India.

In short -- If the world was less crazy, foreign policy would be delivered in a different way. Because the world is not sane, Trump has to cleverly package intelligent foreign policy for delivery to an insane and anti-intellectual world. Those who cannot see and understand this simple truth set themselves upon the path of self deception.

PEACE 😇

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(1) https://www.republicworld.com/india-news/general-news/exclusive-eam-s-dot-jaishankar-to-meet-dominic-raab-to-discuss-safety-of-indians-iran-held-uk-ship

(2) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/21/donald-trump-retaliatory-iran-airstrike-cancelled-10-minutes-before

Replies: @B456, @anon, @Colin Wright, @Baxter, @Anonymous, @Herald, @BuelahMan, @DanFromCT, @Johnny Walker Read, @Oscar Peterson, @SeekerofthePresence, @Mike G, @restless94110