I recently travelled through several areas that were above replacement fertility in South Asia and I was stunned by how common 1 child families have become, talking to people in their 40’s that won’t have any more kids the prevalence of 1 child families has risen a lot, and this includes people who own several hotels, are rich etc, choosing only to have 1 child. Among poorer families there seems to have been a transition to 2-3 children from 4-5 which was the norm in the previous generation.

I went and talked to a lot of very poor people, rickshaw drivers, bricklayers etc and they all had no more than 3, big families have vanished completely it seems in India. Even among very poor people who formerly had big families, most now have only have 2.

I broadly agree with this assessment, the overall mortality rate taking into account undetected cases is probably around 1%, even if only 10% of the worlds population catches it, we’re still looking at around 8 million deaths, I recently travelled through Singapore and all the locals at the airport had masks. It’s possible though the virus could mutate and have a mortality rate of 2% and infect 40% of the worlds population at which point 62 million excess deaths would occur, it would slow down the rate of global population ageing though.

I would just point out that you can't use preliminary birth data as not all births are identified by race, for example in 2016 preliminary data, births by race only add up to 3.821m, while total births are 3.941m, the final births by race tend to adjusted later and tend to be in line with the original figure. Hence, the total % of White births once all births by race are identified is likely to be 2.054m/3.821m which gets you 53.8%.

The share of White births as a % of all births has been flat since since 2006 at around 53-54% due to the collapse in the Hispanic birthrate.

For looking at births by race and state I would recommend this site as it contains data going back 20 years by race.
https://www.marchofdimes.org/peristats/ViewSubtopic.aspx?reg=01&top=2&stop=10&lev=1&slev=4&obj=3

Regarding Alabama, it is one of the few states where the share of white births is growing over time, in the 2006-08 period, 59.7% of all births were white, by 2013-15, that figure was up slightly to 60.3%.

Perhaps the decline in promiscuity among younger generations is due partially to genetic selection, promiscuity surely has somewhat of a genetic component as does every other observable behavior and as those genes decline in prevalence, it leads to a lower number of sexual partners.

Arguably the biggest demographic shift of the last decade has been the convergence of White and Hispanic fertility rates, in 2006, Hispanic fertility was 51% higher then White fertility, 1.9 vs 2.86, by 2015, the difference was down to 21%, 1.75 vs 2.12, a radical change.