Just to add a bit to this last point. Visegrad+/”Intermarium” has an Iran sized population, which is in principle sustainable, but is in practice fully enmeshed within the Western noosphere (e.g. no Big Tech ecosystem of their own) and economically dependent on it (those no LGBT zone mayors in Poland reverse their positions rather rapidly whenever the EU threatens their gibs).
 

Poland since it identifies with the West is free to try its luck influencing its course, I’m quite skeptical about its chances of success
 

Energy independent, noospherically self-contained, politically unitary 180M Great Russia
 

Replies: @216, @Coconuts

Add Turkey to the Intermarium.

Energy independent, noospherically self-contained, politically unitary 180M Great Russia seems to have better prospects as a sustainable civilizational pole than a hypothetical 90M Intermarium.
 

Still holding on to most of the country after 30 days of the invasion. Pretty good, I would say, for a "fake and gay" country. Kind of surprised that Thorfinnsson would agree with you though, but he always was mesmerized by the Russian tri-color flag.

Replies: @Thorfinnsson

That guy looks like he is from one of those inside Russia prisons reality shows.

Perhaps the Nazis that are buzzing around inside of your head Anatoly, are closer to your home than you think?

https://www.theweek.in/content/dam/week/news/world/images/2022/2/25/hitler_putinf.jpg.transform/schema-16x9/image.jpg

The "West" does seem to think it is dealing with idiots.

I give Thulean points for having a realistic power view of the situation and never having advocated for a no-fly-zone.

A Russia hypothetically defeated by Ukraine will be proven to be a very weak nation, and one that that would not deserve to be long for this world
 

A Russia hypothetically defeated by Ukraine will be proven to be a very weak nation, and one that that would not deserve to be long for this world
 

Well if that's indeed the case, I'm glad. I heard it from Armenian media first, what can I say. Despite Milonov's extremely 'powerful' views on all sorts of topics, he was one of the only really strong voices for Armenia during the 2nd Artsakh War (and consistently before). Of course, the Duma is largely symbolic, so that's mute, but it was widely appreciated.

As I think I've made clear several times here, I've considered this invasion a catastrophic blunder and unfolding disaster for all involved, but the collapse of the Russian government, even as it exists now, would lead to an even greater one. Its not as if I'm taking any joy in watching the Russian media show first stirrings of national panic, while people are being killed in Ukraine everyday.

Ditto Oliver D Smith, I don't envy you being stalked by a such psychos, but play in the dirt, get dirty, I guess.

Replies: @HenryBaker

Well you did reverse the news story, which you must understand how this would create "fake news" impression for your audience. Whether you were lying to create clickbait or just an honest mistake? I think it is obvious it was an unintentional mistake, otherwise you would not post it to me, as you know I would check. I also don't think you are someone who would intentionally lies to make clickbait. I have a more high opinion of you than that. Generally you seem more in the other direction, almost too honest.

As for giving you advice (not about shoes, which is just people showing off money i.e. monkeys with trinkets), but more important things, of course I would be happy to. However, at moment you seem a little prickly and defensive, so it can wait until you are more calm. Geopolitical events have raised your blood pressure and you have been behaving like the internet version of Renfield in Bram Stoker's "Dracula" when Dracula is approaching London. Probably in a couple of months you will be more calm and hopefully normally again, like "old Karlin" of the past.

Most POC countries seem to be hedging their bets. Japan and South Korea are the same loyal satrapies as the EU countries are. The only true Russia supporter, for now, seems to be China. As far as I can tell. This seems to me to have more to do with revisionism, superpower allegiance, and a shared type of government, than any real racial motive. 'Whitoid' is a misleading world, you should have said 'Westoid', which means USA aligned. If Russia had not been so simply big, if would have been a normal white US satrapy like any other. The third world LARP is simply that.

By the way, I've heard multiple friends tell me 'what Russia is doing is even worse because they're a civilized European country like us'. Most of my literate friends enjoy Tolstoy and Dostojevski, the latter in particular is seen as one of the greatest authors to have ever existed. If this is somehow a 'race war' (I must assume against Slavs?) then why is the entirety of Europe declaring its willingness to save 'fellow European Ukrainian refugees'?

However, since Russia and the West seem doomed to be perpetually at odds, the dumb race stuff is dragged in by the hair to give cultural legitimation to what is really more of a geopolitical conflict. The reason Russophobia exists is because the country is big and therefore 'scary'. That's it. As there is only room for one superpower in Eurasia, the US would never countenance Russia being in the same alliance (NATO) as Russia could subvert it from within by working with sympathethic Eastern Euro countries.

I recently saw one more chart showing that Germans and Russians are (on a global scale) almost genetically identical. You calling us 'whitoids' is simply ridiculous unless you mean a sort of cultural degeneration. Likewise, the adamant nazi claims of Slavs being Untermenschen were pure fantasies as genetic evidence would have proved that they were shooting themselves in the foot. Otherwise it has nothing to do with race; it's all simple revisionism. If you declare a race war, you are, objectively speaking, declaring it against your own race. Good luck with all that.

Replies: @LondonBob, @sher singh, @Barbarossa

it is overwhelmingly Whitoids who hate Russia, POCs either support Russia or doesn’t care.
 

Replies: @S

Well said. Shock and disbelief indeed. This is a racial holy war against Western Supremacy

Are you doing hallucinogenics again?

Replies: @HenryBaker

https://www.foxnews.com/world/chinas-ambassador-support-ukraine

Despite fears that China may help Russia avoid economic sanctions and may even provide military support to Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime, China's ambassador to Ukraine told officials in the western city of Lviv this week that his country will support Ukraine both economically and politically.

"We will always respect your state, we will develop relations on the basis of equality and mutual benefit. We will respect the path chosen by Ukrainians, because this is the sovereign right of every nation," Fan Xiangong, who relocated with the Chinese embassy from Kyiv to Lviv after Russian forces invaded on Feb. 24, told Lviv officials on Monday, according to the Lviv regional government.

"In this situation, which you have now, we will act responsibly. We have seen how great the unity of the Ukrainian people is, and that means its strength," Fan added.

https://theprint.in/world/chinas-foreign-ministry-endorses-envoys-comments-on-ukraine-talks-of-political-settlement/877736/

China’s foreign ministry endorses envoy’s comments on Ukraine, talks of ‘political settlement’

::::::::::::::::::::::::::

China will be happy to have Russia as its vassal (what choice does Russia have?) so will not needlessly antagonize it, but is keeping its options open regarding Ukraine, now that it is clear that Russia will not defeat Ukraine quickly and potentially may not do so at all.

Replies: @Mr. Hack

99% chance this is just the latest fake and gay Ukrainian psy-op.
 

Asked about Fan’s comments at a news conference Thursday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said: “China surely supports these remarks by our ambassador in Ukraine. China supports all efforts that are conducive to easing the situation and for a political settlement.”
 

Hey Mr. Karlin,

I'm having a hard time trying to understand why the cowardly Russian troops that have invaded Ukraine continually bomb and attack civilian centers?

Also, why do they so mercilessly bomb and attack cities in Eastern and Southern Ukraine, areas that have historically included more Russians and Russian speaking Ukrainians than other parts of Ukraine?

If this is the way that they treat people that might actually be open to some of their stupid ideas, no wonder that the whole world thinks that Putin and his followers are a bunch of morons. And you seem to be his main cheerleader?

https://s.abcnews.com/images/GMA/surrogate-babies-rt-rc-220316_1647440026767_hpMain_16x9_992.jpg

"Shock and Disgust"

Meanwhile Pu is mortally afraid even to get a mere coronavirus, so in practice oldie does not believe chanches of himself going there or does not want go at all ;)

Replies: @Philip Owen

Shock and disbelief.

Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

You have a lot of psychological projection issues to say the least...

Here's you claiming you find 14 year girls "hot" -

https://encyclopediadramatica.online/Anatoly_Karlin#Sexual_attraction_to_young_teenage_girls
https://trad-news.blogspot.com/2021/10/14-year-old-girl-respecter-anatoly.html

Why is it you've spent ~3 years smearing ODS as a pedophile across the internet but can't provide a single shred of evidence, not even a single quote?

You're also projecting on the incel smear on your blog:

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Anatoly_Karlin#.22Pseudo-rape.22_apologism

Karlin's controversial views on rape are nonsurprisingly shared by incels and his writings are quoted by incel, MRM and manosphere bloggers.[112]

He has been described as an "original incel theorist".
 

Replies: @Official AK biographer, @Asi.

I find it amusing you attack Lord ODS here but are highly influenced by him and have been adopting his views for the past few years-

1. You criticised veganism/vegetarianism for years but recently have adopted a more sympathetic attitude to plant-based diets and suddenly claim to love Indian cuisine (most Indian recipes are plant-based), this is despite the fact you were claiming in the 2010s you wanted to ban vegetarianism in India and described vegetarianism as a malnourished diet which lowers IQ.
2. Distancing yourself, at least cosmetically, from the alt-right/WN in response to the RationalWiki page ODS wrote in 2019.
3. No public usage anymore of racist slurs (the last ones you made such as the n-word were in 2019). This was after ODS quoted them on RW and you came close to an apology on your blog claiming they were too harsh.

You have a long way to go, but my predictions -

2025 - Anatoly Karlin will distance himself from HBD crackpottery.

2030 - Anatoly Karlin's diet will be plant-based and he will be an antinatalist.

Replies: @Yevardian

Calm down political grifter.

https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/729094509816991744

Richard Spencer on the left, accompanied by 3 fellow supporters of white nationalism
 

Replies: @In Lulz we Trust

You don't have to try to dig yourself deeper. I'm not saying whether you are lying or making the honest mistake, who cares. Although as general advice, if you more honestly admitted you wrote a mistake, it would give people a better impression.

made no comment on the likelihood of him winning, but the mere fact that the complaint
 

https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1493177927390871553

mere fact that the complaint was accepted and the complainant in question was not defenestrated by the media and activists (as would happen in any Western country) is telling alone.
 

only people on the planet this will offend are Eurofags and Amerimutts, not any actual humans.
 

These countries' sensitivities, were partly how the Soviet Union was able to build strong relations with the third world countries, in contrast to Western bloc, during the second half of the 20th century. Fruit of this investment in these relations have still continued to some extent today and we saw that with the voting in relation to Ukraine invasion in the UN last month.

If you would read books or learn about the 20th century history, then your posts could be more interesting than being only clickbait or Dada performance art. I'm not the right person to recommend about history. But there are people here like Yevardian and German Reader who are educated people and could probably give recommendations .

Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

I'm glad you enjoyed my scenario in the other comment, but your soace-faring piece was a bit half-hearted. The only thing that looks like it harmonising with India soon is your development level, in the direction of theirs.

As for this comment of yours, the lack of those two things you identify just means that Putin doesn't have the will to "win."

This is good, because "winning" would be losing awfully in the long-run, as per the scenario I laid out.

If this stuff really doesn't happen then I guess we'll get a negotiated solution as soon as Wednesday, because you're not even winning the easy part of the war (the invasion and field battles.) You still have the difficult part to go (conquering cities.) And the impossible part (pacifying Ukraine.) You seem to have no theatre reserve, no other troops to call in and you're attriting fast. You are on multiple axes, stretched thin, and having your supply lines hit. Meanwhile, the population in the few places you have "secured" is already having minor riots against your goons. This bodes very badly for you. Every day you stay there, is a day you're even less welcome.

Other than an already nascent insurgency, I'd also worry about those vehicles up around Kyiv. It doesn't seem like they are being sustained in the field. You might be facing a mass surrender, which could lead to a withdrawal under fire on other axes and disaster.

Perhaps you'll advoid this as you seem to have adopted yet another strategy. This is of sitting where you shove reached and blowing up civilians with artillery. The problem with this is that it doesn't gain you anything. It just adds to your blood debt. Yes, it will slow the shockingly fast degradation of your forces, but it isn't risk free and it achieves nothing. It also invites eventual true NATO intervention, and you must now know that the Russian military would be completely helpless in that scenario.

In other words, the Russian forces have still yet to achieve anything that matters. They have only advanced into positions where they are much more vulnerable, suffered horrendous casualties to their most motivated troops and seen Ukrainian forces surge in manpower, equipment and morale.

I could not imagine how it could be going worse.

I still think the negotiated position I outlined at the beginning of the Russian invasion is the best result for everyone, but I less and less see why Ukrainians would agree. Have we seen an organised military that is more committed to its course in decades? I don't think so. They seem extremely willing to fight until they win, and they will eventually win, because they live there and Russians do not. The only question is how much damage is done to Russia, her military, her economy and, most importantly, her society and spirit in the meantime.

Some US politician or someone said, long before the war, that Russia would get what it wants in Ukraine because it cares so much more about Ukraine than the US did. That sounded very convincing at the time, but the truth is that the people who really care about Ukraine, much, much more than the Russians, are the Ukrainians.

As soon as that became obvious, Putin should have found a way out. And this is why war has changed. I thought Russia, of all places, had realised this change. Perhaps your government has, but is just panicked in its incompetence?

Anyway, sorry about the black pill, but it'll be ok. Russia is now the antagonist in the Ukrainian Great Patriotic War, however with certain manouvres it can be Putinists in that role and Russians as having undergone a journey and been redeemed. It is possible.



How's the invasion truly going? Looks like Ukraine is not even losing territory so much as using a little of their depth for defence, just as they should.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1503401312754577408?t=ec7PtxcS1xUCPrZQ97l-Jw&s=19

Also, will most Russians abroad now pretend to be Ukrainian? Forever?

Replies: @sher singh, @Brás Cubas

a great space-faring Empire
 

Replies: @HenryBaker

Western Supremacists will stew in their cesspit of BLM and the 69 genders, papering over their failures with impotent Russophobia and Sinophobia, for at least the rest of this century, a fitting punishment for their innumerable sins.
 

Please don’t lie. The Discord is free, Substack is not my employer
 

Perhaps I am incorrect in my impression, but it is not a lie. I have no desire to have any kind of silly online feud with you, so kindly direct such accusations elsewhere.

While somewhat appreciated, I have no need for your well-wishes, save them for those who need them.
 

As I keep saying, shock and disbelief
 

https://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/367103075

 

And we're to believe your fairy tales that the Russians never bombed anything within Donbas?

Let me put that right "When the Ukrainians were counter bombarding the occupying mercenaries using civilian shields. A necessary tactic to maintain Russian control of the population."

It’s also very curious (and telling) how all these newly sprouted pacifists only seem to be piping up now and now in any of the previous 8 years when the Ukrainians were bombarding Donbass.
 

The 0.2% that are fighting are people who want to be there, who are paid well above average Russian salaries to be there (funded by taxes collected from the 69.8%), and who have specifically trained for years for scenarios like this.
 

It’s also very curious (and telling) how all these newly sprouted pacifists only seem to be piping up now and now in any of the previous 8 years when the Ukrainians were bombarding Donbass.
 

Karlin,

is this for real ? The timing seems a bit convenient and there is no snow, but perhaps they efficiently remove snow as well as dissidents.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Unexpected/comments/tddlnc/two_words_moscov_2022/

Since doing this Tweet I have found slightly more up to date figures (18 dead in 2021 was 7 months. The final figure was 25).

https://twitter.com/PCOwen_a/status/1503900958367133697?s=20&t=zhJjDKwwFZ_8tP9by_A3KA

How touching, Karlin passing the baton to his erstwhile protege Geraldina. "Birds of a feather flock together".

https://m.media-amazon.com/images/M/[email protected]_V1_.jpg

Geraldina, now not only the intellectual heir of the Karlin legacy, but the spiritual one as well! :-)

Master,

Much appreciated and many, many thanks!

If Vitaly Milonov is not available, then I would choose Dmitry as a perfect candidate to take over the blog, ahead of myself. Individual comments he makes way down the page here are easily worthy of being a blog post, he's even more mild-mannered and polite on here than I am to all the commentators, more prolific and with good knowledge. Unclear his patriot-level, but even "neutral" level is a huge improvement on the deluge of cretinism that anglo/western audiences are being brainwashed with.

Thanks for the offer though

Replies: @sher singh

The Germanics no longer have that kind of power, their % of global GDP is too small,
 

Neither Poland by itself or even some kind of schizo Intermarium (as if those peoples would ever get along organically) does not have the weight to be its own civilizational pole,
 

Russia does (just about) have the demographic, economic, and ideological weight to be its own world-civilization
 

I view it as a heroic
 

Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Coconuts

5,000 deaths or 15,000 deaths or even 100,000 deaths is a modest price to pay for resolving this question sooner rather later.

 

The sooner the Americans come the better, one hundred million shattered jewel.

一億玉砕 Ichi oku gyokusai

 

一死以て大罪を謝し奉る 神州不滅を確信しつつ

I—with my death—humbly apologize to the Emperor for the great crime. While convinced that Shinshū* is immortal.
 

Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

This is highly unlikely. Is Australia, much more dependent on Chinese trade, at “China’s mercy”?
 

However, even on the freak chance you are correct, a Russia that does fit that description will massively augment Chinese power, tipping the scales in its struggle with the US and its colonies for world dominance this century.
 

A world in which Russians are relatively privileged satraps of China (having pledged fealty to it first) is better for Russians than one in which they are at best third-class citizens within the West
 

which is clearly the fate that Western Supremacists have marked out for the Eastern Slavs.
 

Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

Russia is obviously far too big and self-contained to ever become a Chinese dependency.

However, even on the freak chance you are correct, a Russia that does fit that description will massively augment Chinese power,
 

The "worst case" scenario is a struggle between Moscow and Beijing to control the duopoly. Both the Kremlin and the CCP have a built in assumption that they will be "The Central Authority".

tipping the scales in its struggle with the US and its colonies for world dominance this century.
 

The Christian people of Russia and the Christian people of the U.S. are logical allies in the struggle against anti-Christian UN/NWO Authoritarianism.

PEACE 😇

ENOUGH.

This is wartime, this means wartime blogging moderation........ which means there must be a wartime alliance between you, the New York Times - listed writer, Anatoly Karlin..... and myself.

I have been too busy, or engaged on ru.net to participate on your blog/SM - but very impressed with your Operation Z performance.

Now, of course you know my opinions and facts about you, but this is all irrelevant now. Think of this as alliance between Putin and Akhmad Kadyrov ( I am designated as Putin in this dynamic)

I will refer to you as Master from now onwards.

Alliance?

# ISTANDWITHTOLYA (New-York/Jew-york Times listed bestselling author)

Replies: @Yevardian, @Anatoly Karlin

Less than six months ago:

https://www.unz.com/akarlin/russias-nationalist-turn/

: (

Replies: @Barbarossa

In just about all relationships I've observed the woman adopts the political views of her man. Not doing so usually means she doesn't really respect him. When Spencer was with a Russian he appeared on RT, repeated Russian government boilerplate, published the most anti-American pro-Russian writers, and censored pro-Ukrainian comments (including those of Greg Johnson) at Alternative Right. Now that he's married (I think) to an American Democrat he's a Biden-supporting, LGBT-friendly, liberal warhawk who calls people traitors for criticising the US. Seems like he's a weak man who never wears the pants in his relationships.

Shock and disbelief when Pizza Hut is no longer available in Russia.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNmcxiWXoAs3W6E.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNEFJhWaAAIjz3O.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNCwBCXacAE8xy9.jpg

19.6K Followers

Do you think the ban hammer will soon fall?

ASBMilitary was eliminated at 200K Followers.

Replies: @Emil Nikola Richard

Self-awareness and self-criticism are very positive useful traits ;)

It is certain that one of the true believer partisan sides is going to be shocked and disbelieving so I guess that your prediction is destined to be 100% accurate.

Either that, or an ultimately unsatisfying outcome for both sides will be spun as a big win by both sides.

How's that for hedging my bets?

I appreciate your resolute certainty, but the only sure bet that I can come to is that all the people who "know" are ultimately posing. They may or may not have an educated reason for their pose, but any vindication or not will probably be a matter of chance or chosen perception. This isn't only directed at you specifically, but at the highly assured people on both sides around here.

Shock and disbelief.
 

Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

That's if they ever tell them the truth. Now they've banned Russian media in the West and the information superhighway is jammed with Western propaganda we're entering the Orwellian 1984 situation with regard to what news the public is served. Even if some speck of truth gets through it'll be dismissed as lies and Russian propaganda. And the minute of hate is now all day long, day in day out.

Replies: @Aedib

Opinions are not so malleable when blood is involved. Putin has managed to even lose eastern Ukrainians to Russia for a generation.

Replies: @iffen, @Aedib

Yet, more Russian fake news:

"Russia claims without evidence that the maternity hospital it bombed — which killed a child — was a Ukrainian militia base"

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-says-mariupol-maternity-hospital-militia-base-no-evidence-2022-3

In any case, at the time of the bombing, were any Azov members inside of the hospital?

Replies: @Wokechoke, @Philip Owen

The best lesson for China is to strike first and strike hard.
 

Replies: @songbird, @Aedib

his [Steve Sailer's] takes on it are highly cartoonish
 

The main lesson China actually learns from Russia/Ukraine is to strike the US military bases at Guam and Japan when invading Taiwan FROM THE OUTSET.
 

In what reality do you think China will actually strike "US military bases at Guam and Japan when invading Taiwan"? I can't think of a worse strategy for China, which will, in a stroke, eliminate any anti-war, pro-China business lobby in the U.S., hugely inflame both American and Japanese populations and likely draw all American Pacific allies into a larger regional war against China, even if China were able to occupy Taiwan quickly.

Do you get your ideas on international conflicts from video games?

I think this is a deeply wishful, and indeed "cartoonish," thinking on your part as a Russian nationalist.

Replies: @Dmitry, @China Japan and Korea Bromance of Three Kingdoms

I don't believe pulling off a Pearl Harbor would be the lesson learned by China.

Actually, the lesson for China should've been pretty straight forward. It is to make preparations, more preparations. And if it is made to align with general development instead of a bunker attitude, then it should be settled. The other parties can do not much at all.

Replies: @Yellowface Anon

Your true disappointment may come in the form of Russia leaving Ukraine after some sort of treaty. Be careful that the 'shock and disbelief' you talk of won't be your own! You're very invested in both the annexation, and ultimate Russian victory points of view. I think you're leaving too many uncertainties out of your analysis here- that's probably the nationalism. Your nationalist biases were imo quite clear in your idea that Ukraine (as a 'fake state') would not resist much and roll over quickly, which is more or less the same sentiment as held by colonizing European powers during the decolonization wars.

However, I will admit that if the Eastern front collapses, it's probably over for the Ukies, at least on the conventional front.

The weaklings get weeded out by history, while the truly Great Men make their own fortune.
 

It would be interesting to read your description of the economic conditions in Russia after that USA launched all its “economic nuclear ICBMs”. They launched their entire arsenal. What is happening and what do you expect to happen?
I think many readers share my curiosity about this sensitive issue.

Replies: @AP

Have you seen Gonzo Lira's report in the Unz newslinks section today? He lives in Khirkov but only has second hand sources as he is Chilean and does not speak or read Russian or Ukrainian.

1. he says the Russian report that they have document proof Americans were operating biological weapons facilities is solid.
2. he says the Russian report that they have document proof that major Ukraine army incursion into Donbas was imminent on Feb 22 is solid.
3. he says the civilian safe passage corridor strategy is something they hashed out in Syria and that the great tactical result is it makes it trivial for uncommitted enemy soldiers to readily desert their post.

I am on the other side of the planet and I have no idea how authentic these claims are but he is presenting them at some risk to his own safety so I have very small doubt that he believes it.

I would have been better served by relying on my own CMP (2020): https://www.unz.com/akarlin/cmp-2021/
-- Russia/USSR: 32.8
-- Ukraine: 4.0

For comparison, in 1991:
-- United States: 92.2
-- Iraq: 2.1
 

 

For comparison, in 1991:

United States: 92.2
Iraq: 2.1

So it went much more quickly and more smoothly.
 

Nonetheless, while I might have been temporarily humiliated, it is Russia whose final victory is all but assured.
 

A single phrase explains the fanatical 'international support' for the 'sovereignty and territorial integrity' of 'Ukraine', the abject worship of the clown Zelenski by the chorus of clowns of the "UK Parliament'' under the direction of the clown in chief Blojo: ''the most important of groups in Ukraine: the Jews''.

I thought Dmowski was an asshole (albeit post-1945 Poland is strangely similar to his vision in some respects) but this quote is quite insightful.

Replies: @Mr. Hack

"Naive" and "Russians" never really sound good together on the lips, IMO. I think Russia calculated that they were willing to lose more of their own soldiers to minimize the "shock and awe" they have to lay down to pacify Ukraine (thus generating the minimum of hatred necessary among the Ukrainian people). They may have figured that if they give logic, Russian messaging (they may not be winning the internet war, but I think they're probably working the bullhorns and the radios pretty hard at the tactical level), Ukrainian word of mouth time to work, and USkraine brainwashing time to wear off, they'll be doing what they can to minimize lemming-like behavior from the population. That kind of thing tends to slow down an advance (making it, I dunno, almost "police action"-like, eh?).

But I know a lot less about Russia than you do so...

Americans softened up the 85 IQ Iraqi military with no outside support after a month of heavy bombing including civilian infrastructure.
 

naive and humane Russians
 

Replies: @Wokechoke

its rate of advance has been comparable
 

In any case, you know what's not comparable? The respective casualty rates.

Russians underestimated the degree to which Ukrainians had been brainwashed into their Banderist cult
 

naive and humane Russians
 

Mr. Karlin, I thought you were an open-eyed, cold-calculating realist. This kind of a sloganeering is more Baghdad Bob than a sober analyst. You disappoint me.

Replies: @LondonBob

This is a good attempt to be positive, but let's be serious: these are Russian tasks in order of difficulty. The further down the list is the harder they will be to achieve. Basically increasing by orders of magnitude.

1. Achieve air supremacy.

2. Occupy Mariupol.

It seems like Russia will get here in a week, though it is hardly guaranteed.

3. Occupy Kharkiv.

4. Defeat all Ukrainian forces outside of cities.

5. Occupy Odesa.

6. Occupy Kyiv.

This was supposed to happen in 48 hours. It has no chance of happening any time soon. Can the Russian army be combat effective that long? Probably not.

7. Occupy Lviv

How's this going to happen?

8. Maintain order in Russia, Belarus, Chechnya etc. under crushing economic depression.

Good luck!

9. Pacify infinitely supplied Ukrainian insurgencies.

Literally a 0% chance of this happening.

Since you're still struggling with "1" and have no plans for anything above "4", I would wish you luck but the endeavour is rotten and Lavrov will be sweating buckets to make something approaching a non-losers' peace tonight.

Honestly, though, I do prefer your attempts at propaganda to someone like Pepe Escobar's. You seem to be an honest patriot doing your best for a completely insane endeavour. People like Pepe Escobar however are just about the most cringe I can imagine. He doesn't just write geopolitical fan fiction, he writes geo political fan fiction for late middle-aged male incels - the ultimate in cringe demographics.

And that's before I get to Ron Unz, whose "contribution" to Putin's propoganda was to argue that he really is like Hitler and that's why he is great.

Anybody who isn't Russian, isn't directly paid money and is still on the Putin train has outed themselves as manipulatable mush-brained morons.

I respect your efforts as you've been dealt an awful hand, but some of your commenters are among the world's most tragic people. Not because they suffer, but because they're insufferable.

Anyway, I still think that Russia could play a blinder by somehow joining the EU with Belarus and Ukraine. Don't ask me how they achieve it, but some sort of perfunctory regime change, false hope and change agenda and riding the wave of Western public elief might actually get you somewhere. At that point, the conservative Slavs really would control Europe. From defeat to victory in a few wonder manouervres.

This is also my favoured option. Probably a fantasy, but a lot more fun than pretending that this war and the sanctions are going as planned.

Replies: @AaronB, @Philip Owen

I'm not competent to judge how well or poorly the war is going for either side, but I do find it astonishing how ready some people are to believe their own side's propaganda (this is aimed more at the Uke side). It reminds me of Serbian claims that NATO planes were dropping like flies in 1999 (and all the dopey, desperate Serbs who fell for it) and that goofball Iraqi information minister in 2003. I guess no matter how badly you're losing, there's no upside to admitting the truth so why not lie. (To repeat: not saying this is definitely the case for Ukraine. Maybe they're doing just as well - or even better - than they claim. I'm just wary of believing it.)

Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Veteran of the Memic Wars

While you description is mostly true, you should concede that your “Powerful takes" claims were over-optimistic. You predicted the end of the coherent Ukrainian resistance in just 1 week. Also, the Russian side suffered a considerably number of losses, and although the Ukrainians losses are way higher, the end body-count will be quite high. In addition there is a pretty low number of deserters. I don’t buy the inflated propaganda that AP place here but the Ukrainians are still fighting. I must concede that the lost “operational mobility” and are mostly entrenched in cities. Anyway, the mess will last at least two more months. Not a cheap victory (and I’m only referring to the military dimension).

Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

Have you read Sailer's "What Lessons Will Xi Draw From Putin's War"?

Just curious, given that you seem to have high opinon of him. ;)

Recently the DrudgeReport headlines also make interesting read. It got me wondering how much I can trust the impression I got there regarding American domestic issues. 😂

Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

Your childlike responses are meant to impress whom? Even Michael Averko offers more nourishment for the intellect to consume than you. I thought that you've already made your swan song departure from here several times already? Maybe if you ask real nicely, Ron Unz will put you back on his payroll? I'd hate to have to stand in the long unemployment line in Moscow today, which I hear is growing exponentially.

Lol. It's hilarious how people Google your name.

https://twitter.com/InvestigadoraP/status/1501423482407727105

Any estimate of when we will be consumed by shock and disbelief? Weeks, months, years?

I'm asking because I'd actually like this war to end as fast as possible, whatever the outcome, but, having trusted your predictions at the beginning, I see them coming apart with no end in sight.

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/1501304203725217792?s=20&t=KGnJ15FRc1xc2PrYUJWJpQ

Too bad. I figured it was a low chance of accuracy but I liked the way my theory sounded.

Oliver D. Smith seems like a very special character. If you are finding yourself shadowed on the internet and trolled by such a lowlife, you have my sincerest condolences.

https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1500839485642194944?s=20&t=vl0-aRKeGnfRGKOKGMHtbw

fertilizer exports have been drastically cut (Russia and Ukraine account for 1/3 of the world’s wheat exports), etc.
 

https://twitter.com/Dragondescendan/status/1500655326021894147?s=20&t=1cY9BgpA3_704aYnftTQuQ

AK (2022)
. . . on the freak chance that Russia “loses” to Ukraine, it was never going to succeed anyway, it will have proved itself a loser civilization that might as well put it out of its misery sooner rather than later.

AH (1944)

If the German people cannot wrest victory from the enemy, then they shall be destroyed… they deserve to perish, for the best of Germany’s manhood will have fallen in battle. Germany’s end will be horrible, and the German people will have deserved it.

No, Putin's government is a loser government. You see, if I worked for him and believed him when he said there was no chance of him invading Ukraine, I would have lied to him and told him Russians would be welcomed and it would be over in 2 days too. This is why open and democratic will always beat closed and controlled in the long run. Yes, it looks more chaotic, but that is just superficial. In reality, by getting the chaos all out in the open, it creates better results.

To paraphrase Augustine of Hippo: if you're going to sin or makes mistakes, do at least do it consciously or honestly.

Amusingly, the only "Empire of Lies" that has been haunting Putin turned out to be his own bureaucracy and that is entirely his fault.

Replies: @Wokechoke

The sad thing is that Russia's future fate will be the same (comprehensively destroyed) no matter what the outcome in Ukraine. If it manages to take over some of Ukraine's cities, think of all of the time and resources it will consume in trying to subdue the insurgent countryside (that will spill over into the cities as well). Imagine the very worst IRA scenarios imaginable, that is what probably awaits Russia. Drat! There goes your comfy position as a director of some transhumanist research facility.

Replies: @Philip Owen, @yakushimaru

It might also have been better to not gamble literally the whole of the Russian cultural world's future existence for the next century on a single dice roll instead.
What makes me so angry and gloomy is that is doesn't even look it was intended that way (Putin has always been cautious, I doubt this was intended as some imperial reconquestica, rather a collosal miscalculation), but after such a step has been taken there's no turning back.

I mean, this analogy will easily be misquoted or misinterpreted, but look at Germany in 1939.. re-armament had only just started, I didn't even switch to a full war-economy until the 1943 or so.

Replies: @Yevardian, @Anatoly Karlin

What about loyalty to tribe, family, and nation even unto death and defeat?

What about the long game - where ultimate victory means many temporary defeats?

I suppose this kind of shallow opportunistic thinking is the ultimate logical result of materialism - one is "loyal" only to gross power and success, and only in it's immediate short term manifestation.

Of course, this level of "commitment" never succeeds in the long run. Only uncompromising long term commitment - unconditional and "illogical" - does. If this is the calibre of "loyalty" Russia is attracting, I now see it has no chance of long term success.

This attitude is in such stark contrast to the "illogical" commitment, loyalty, and resistance of the Ukrainians.

But then, I have already noted that it's an illusion Russia is in any way healthier on fundamentals than the West.

Oh, and one more thing - this attitude that mere failure is so terrible a thing, this fear of mere failure, is the small minded attitude that makes sure glory and success never come.

And yet, a materialist cannot help but fear failure as the worst thing, and cannot help but be defeated by setback.

2022 looks to be another Russian self-own, like 1914 or 1917. Many Russians were optimistic at the beginning of those disastrous misadventures, also. You have a lot of company.

Only question is how bad it will be. Sad.

The consolation is that on the truly freak chance that Russia loses to a fake and gay country, it will prove itself to be an even faker and gayer country, and will deserve everything it gets from a vengeful and embittered West.
 

Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

Ukraine was bombing Donbass for 8 years and was ready to bomb it for another 80 years or however long it took until conquering it.
 

Bullshit. In 2012 I was asked to supply 30,000 pairs of army boots to a military surplus dealer in Taganarog.With hindsight clearly intended for Malofeev's army. The scenario planning was published in 2005. 80,000 men were thought to be required to take Novorossiya. In the end they went for Donbass with 25,000. Russia via irregulars very very definitely started this war and planned it a decade before Maidan. It is not in doubt. The Third Empire even descirbes a Maidan pushed by Russia.

When the Ukrainian army thrashed them, they retreated to civilian areas. Since then they have regularly shell Ukrainian positions from civilian cover. When a man dies the Ukrainians shoot back.

The fascist mercenaries need this reaction. Conflict keeps their hold on the civilian population. Most of the dead are soldiers anyway, the largest number being Ukrainian.

We are seeing the limits of rational discussion when extreme emotions take over. It should help us understand why some events in the past happened - and how easy it is to descend into one-sided madness.

Creating a fake hysteria over 'attack on nuclear power plant' is so over the top that only people raised in the retarded Hollywood world could buy it. I hope they did it consciously, if they are really that dumb God help us. When the music stops and dancing cholas go home, where will Mr.Hack go? How many booster shots will the latter-day Nazi 'unz' pump into himself?

Keep the blog for now. The story needs an ending, here too. There will be enough time to archive it once this is over.

under my name but I don’t even have moderation powers

Peter, Peter, pumpkin eater has lost his moderation theatre.

I remember you defending R. Unz vis-a-vis this issue with Peter Frost.

Serves you right.

Man-child is throwing a tantrum.

Rantrums run through three phases:

Yelling and screaming. During this initial phase, a child asserts his or her will mostly vocally, often disagreeing with a directive.

Physical action. This is when the child may push furniture or throw toys, ultimately tiring out and bringing on the final stage.

Crying, whining and fussing. The more physical part of the tantrum over, bigger histrionics give way to tears and the child can be consoled.
 

Replies: @sudden death

Well, I personally think least bad option at this stage, is a quick and overwhelming Russian victory, to end what is looking to become a horrific meatgrinder close to the heart of Europe, but nonetheless I still find your blatantly imperialist attitude quite disgusting, not to mention extremely vulgar, the I think only word that describes it adequately is пошлость.
But either way, the only 'upside' of this, in the next week, it will either be Akarlin, Pharmakon, Mike Whitney and his Asian Attack-Panda all seething and writhing uncontrollably, or the other equally emotional and hyper-partisan side doing the same (Laxa, utu and Mr. Hack etc).

The evidence points at this stage that Russia severely miscalculated on the level of Ukrainian resistance, but it's still far too early for any Armchair Generals to make any confident prediction, imo.
If I had to guess, I'd say Russia will take Ukraine in the next fortnight, at costs far more severe than anticipated, with immense damage to its military reputation, but ultimately achieving its goals, if not its maximalist ones. Like Finland.
And overall, I still don't see how Russia will benefit from annexing an intensely hostile population of an utterly ruined land either. Any 'demographic' wins will easily be cancelled out by the accompanying emigration of skilled people and a dramatic drop in birthrates (which like the Russian economy, were bad already).

Replies: @sher singh, @German_reader, @Emil Nikola Richard

Do you even yet know that you're the one in shock and disbelief?

And yes "cockroaches", such as the many bungled invasion apologists here, are stuck in that place with you.

Replies: @utu

Putin's armoured advance reminds me of the scene at the end of The Last Samurai, but with one difference. The Samurai knew that they had already lost the war.

What do you hope it achieves?

That they encircle Ukrainian cities? This should be easy, but it only puts Russia in a worse position. Vulnerable and stuck in a war of attrition against an infinite and infinitely supplied enemy. How will you even pay for it?

Or that they enter Ukrainian cities and establish positions? Again, that puts them in a much worse position. Where else would Russia's opponents want Russia's armies than in ridiculously vulnerable positions trying to govern obviously hostile cities?

What are you going to do? Sick the Chechens on them? This idea is somehow more idiotic than it is even repulsive. Chechens can't do counter-insurgency in Ukraine. You literally could not pick a worse force for that. They know nothing and are hated and uncontrolled. Moronic.

Meanwhile, on the Hybrid War front, Russia is eviscerated. You could not have been more obviously defeated.

Putin was already not a glorious "victorious warlord." He lost in Ukraine over the last decade. Idiots can whinge about "Empire of Lies" or "psychopathic Nuland", but those institutions won. This is why they will remain popular and in power.

Meanwhile, Putin had a fig leaf of respect because he had not yet thrown everything away on one last and completely pointless and hopeless charge. But now he has signed, sealed and delivered total victory to the US and wrecked everything that he stood for.

Let me say again, the only option for Russians who want to save something of their project is to scapegoat Putin. Apologise. Withdraw. Recognise that you already lost Ukraine and move on.

Putinism is swiftly becoming the loser ideology that it pretends to counter. What way is victory? What are your goals? Every Russian killed in this war is soil heaped on the coffin of your project, as is every Ukrainian killed. No matter who dies, you only lose harder. There is no end to the losses Russia might sustain if this continues. Things can get much worse for you. The country could be dismembered. And for what? So your youth can sit in armoured positions in hostile cities, getting shot whenever they break cover? Or getting NLAWed?

F*CK me. This is the stupidest and most ridiculously tragic decision of my life...

And all of this is before we get to the fact that Russia is going around murdering Ukrainians...which is a blood that will not wash off, no matter how much you try to pretend that it isn't there or is somehow justified. No joke, if speaking figuratively, but this mission is damned by heaven and the only result for its perpetrators is hell.

(Finally, I know that you know that everyone in Russia, including Putin, desperately wishes they could turn the clock back to before the invasion. You could have gotten sanctions lifted, Crimea recognised and maybe more. But now you're stuck in a snowballing situation without even a concept of victory. The only question is whether you get out now and the avalanche only takes out Putin and other token heads, or later, and you risk most of Russia. There is no limit to how much this might cost you if you continue. It could be a collapse of the Soviet Union, but without the international goodwill and worse, even with an opportunistic China. Get a f*ckng grip. Even Hitler knew the Anschluss wouldn't work if he wasn't welcomed.)