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    In recent months, there has coalesced yet another, fleeting Russian liberal movement, focused on holding (unsanctioned) protests on the last day of the month to draw attention to the 31st article of the Constitution guaranteeing freedom of assembly. As is usually the case with other sagas in the (largely illusory & irrelevant) "Kremlin Regime vs...
  • @Siber
    Было бы классно, если бы agootreaty или Марк Адоманис сходили на митинг у посольства в Вашингтоне и потом написали об этом... :)

    Если он там состоится, конечно.

    Replies: @A Good Treaty, @Anatoly Karlin

    Is one happening in DC today? I can’t find an address or time…

  • In the post with A Good Treaty's interview, the commentator peter recommended this book, ВЛАСТЬ-2010: 60 биографий (Power in 2010: 60 biographies) by Vladimir Pribylovsky, as a "useful primer on who's who in the Kremlin". I happen to agree - with many qualifications, which are discussed below - which is why I translated its introductory...
  • One correction: the Defense Minister is Anatoly Serdyukov, not Aleksandr Serdyukov.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @A Good Treaty

    Thanks!

  • Kicking off the Watching the Russia Watchers interview series at S/O is the promising new blogger A Good Treaty. He is a DC-based foreign policy analyst who prefers a "good treaty with Russia" to only treating with a good Russia: as a foreign policy realist, he is averse to neocon (and neoliberal / liberal interventionist)...
  • @peter
    @A Good Treaty

    Yes, Russian big politics is so perverse and nontransparent that Kremlinology is, for the large part, the only workable approach. As a practical advice, the first section of this book is a useful primer on who's whose in Kremlin, the rest of the book and the author's website are solid reference sources.

    As another remark, if I may, I find the ЖЖ part of your blog reading list a bit peculiar. All your picks are on my френдлента too, but if there was, say, a ten or twenty friends limit, none of them would've made the cut. Well, except Kashin of course. By the way, while we're at it, the article you attributed to Kashin is actually by Andrei "Я Путина видел" Kolesnikov.

    Replies: @A Good Treaty

    Thanks for the PDF link. I will read with great interest. Thanks also for the correction regarding my Kashin citation. I must have pulled the article from Kashin’s LJ and not bothered to check the byline, which Kommersant annoyingly hides at the bottom of their articles.

    So who makes the top ten of your friendlenta? Let’s have it.

    • Replies: @peter, @Anatoly Karlin
    @A Good Treaty

    The inclusion of Krylov is interesting. I might be the only Anglosphere blogger who wrote about his work on culture at Diasporas and Barbarians.

    PS. Beware peter's liberal bias. I'd also suggest:
    * Анатолий Вассерман is just brilliant
    * После смерти Махатмы Ганди поговорить не с кем! - that's Filippov, he of the controversial "Stalinist" textbook.
    * Убийца Иллюзий
    * Теория заговора
    * АНТИРЕВИЗИОНИЗМ on history; see also Книга бревна in this department.
    * За вашу и нашу Свободу! - the archetypal blog of the Soviet dissident who hates Russia and worships the West... so good its a fake (Вассерман is suspected of being behind it)! ;)

  • @peter
    @A Good Treaty

    The problem is proportions rather than scope. I will explain.

    As you surely agree, the current Russian political system is largely a simulacrum: Medvedev isn't really a president, Putin isn't really a prime minister, and Kasparov et al. aren't really opposition figures because there's no such thing as active political opposition in Russia in the first place. Hence, this whole Russophobe(phile) debate about evil (gorgeous) Putin vs. useless (useless) Medvedev vs. heroic (clownish) liberal opposition largely misses the point. Как-то так.

    Replies: @A Good Treaty, @Anatoly Karlin

    It’s a fair point. Do you think it would be more effective or truer-to-life to conduct more of a Kremlinology-type approach, looking for figures in the administration and in United Russia, unpacking their personalities, and so on?

    I’m curious to know what you think could be an improvement, as I’ve been thinking about this myself.

    • Replies: @peter
    @A Good Treaty

    Yes, Russian big politics is so perverse and nontransparent that Kremlinology is, for the large part, the only workable approach. As a practical advice, the first section of this book is a useful primer on who's whose in Kremlin, the rest of the book and the author's website are solid reference sources.

    As another remark, if I may, I find the ЖЖ part of your blog reading list a bit peculiar. All your picks are on my френдлента too, but if there was, say, a ten or twenty friends limit, none of them would've made the cut. Well, except Kashin of course. By the way, while we're at it, the article you attributed to Kashin is actually by Andrei "Я Путина видел" Kolesnikov.

    Replies: @A Good Treaty

  • @A Good Treaty
    @Glossy

    I appreciate the sentiment that T.I.'s results don't jive with popular notions or stereotypes, but I've still yet to hear much in the way of specifics about why this report's methodology is really flawed. I get it that you don't like the fact that comparisons are even being made, but let's focus on the idea that a monitoring group analyzed Russian transparency and gave it a low grade. In a vacuum, what are your issues with how they did this?

    I'm not asking you guys to go master quantum physics here. That PDF laying out their methodology (see link above) is literally just a collection of questions with quantifiable answers, put to businesspeople and professional experts/scholars.

    I think this discussion would benefit immensely from one of you discontents actually reading the thing.

    Replies: @Glossy, @A Good Treaty

    Glossy, thanks very much for that. I’d say you’ve certainly raised some doubts about the study. Thanks for your take on the matter.

  • @Glossy
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I agree with Anatoly here. When stereotypes clash with sociological data, there's usually something wrong with the data. Sociology isn't like quantum physics - it will never be able to tell us anything about the world that we didn't know already. Public stereotypes will always be the golden standard of accuracy in anything sociological. The fancy term for this is face validity. Stereotypically Russia is about as currupt as Italy, which is more corrupt than countries like Germany or Canada, but better than Saudi Arabia, Central Asia or most of Latin America. The Saud family appears to own the Saudi state. Sub-Saharan Africa is of course in a league of its own.

    I remember seeing a comparison of the numbers of billionaires created in Russia nad Mexico in the 1990s. Market competition had little to do with how any of those people got rich, so it was pretty sad to look at that list. In that decade Russia managed to be about as corrupt as Mexico has always been and still is, but I think things have gotten better in Russia since then.

    Replies: @A Good Treaty

    I appreciate the sentiment that T.I.’s results don’t jive with popular notions or stereotypes, but I’ve still yet to hear much in the way of specifics about why this report’s methodology is really flawed. I get it that you don’t like the fact that comparisons are even being made, but let’s focus on the idea that a monitoring group analyzed Russian transparency and gave it a low grade. In a vacuum, what are your issues with how they did this?

    I’m not asking you guys to go master quantum physics here. That PDF laying out their methodology (see link above) is literally just a collection of questions with quantifiable answers, put to businesspeople and professional experts/scholars.

    I think this discussion would benefit immensely from one of you discontents actually reading the thing.

    • Replies: @Glossy
    @A Good Treaty

    I just looked through it. They collate data gathered by 10 different organizations.

    "Not all sources rank all countries of the index."

    "A country must be covered by a minimum of 3
    different sources to be ranked in the CPI."

    The first two organizations listed are the Africa Development Bank and the Asian Development Bank. Obviously, the first must have concentrated on Africa and the second on Asia. A question immediately arises: when the respondents to the Africa Development Bank's survey rated African countries, were they comparing them to the rest of the world or only to other African countries? I'm sure they were told to rate on an absolute, universal scale, but people often think in relative scales instead. "Well, by African standards, this is a 6" and so on. If you look at the table of correlation coefficients on page 5, you'll see that the Africa Development Bank's data correlated poorly with data from other sources.

    Of course the above is just a guess of mine and the weirdness of the results could be due to other, unknown-to-me causes. And the results ARE weird. I'm looking at their 2008 list right now and Botswana is there at 5.8, while the Czech Republic is at 5.2. Russia is at 2.1, tied with Bangladesh, Kenya and Syria. Liberia is at 2.4. AGT, I'm curious, do you think that Russia is more corrupt or less corrupt than Liberia?

    I see that one of TI's sources is the Economist Intelligence Unit, which "uses its panel of experts’ assessment on the incidence of corruption." So the EIU doesn't interview businessmen, it uses its own experts instead. OK. The Economist magazine's political stances are well-known. I would describe them as libertarian and neoconservative. Fans of Putin they're not.

    Again, this doesn't prove anything and I am just trying to guess why the results look they way they do. Generally speaking, the most typical cause of survey results failing the face validity test is bad sampling. Are the samples representative of the population being studied? Here the relevant populations would be businessmen and journalists. I can't answer that last question just by looking at a 10-page methodology booklet. All I can provide are guesses.

    , @A Good Treaty
    @A Good Treaty

    Glossy, thanks very much for that. I'd say you've certainly raised some doubts about the study. Thanks for your take on the matter.

  • @daut
    "The local Kremlin there, which hosts both an Orthodox church and a mosque, has a marvelous statue out front dedicated to the world’s proletariat."

    That's not the proletariat, that's Musa Cälil, Soviet Tatar writer and prisoner of the Nazis, and his story is far more interesting. Just check out Wikipedia:

    "Cälil joined the Wehrmacht propaganda unit for the legion under the false name of Gumeroff. Cälil's group set out to wreck the Nazi plans, to convince the men to use the weapons they would be supplied with against the Nazis themselves. The members of the resistance group infiltrated the editorial board of the Idel-Ural newspaper the German command produced, and printed and circulated anti-fascist leaflets among the legionnaires into esoteric action groups consisting of five men each. The first battalion of the Volga-Tatar legion that was sent to the Eastern front mutinied, shot all the German officers there, and defected to the Soviet partisans in Belarus."

    Replies: @A Good Treaty

    Wow. Very cool!

    • Replies: @daut
    @A Good Treaty

    Pretty much a real-life Inglourious Basterd.

  • @Glossy
    "In the 2008 Ossetian war, however, George W. Bush’s advisers apparently lobbied for an attack on the Roki Tunnel..."

    I didn't know that. Do you know who specifically lobbied for this? Just going by stereotypes I'm picturing Cheney being for it and Robert Gates being against it.

    Replies: @A Good Treaty

    Back in February this year, Ron Asmus, a Clinton administration State Department official, published “The Little War That Shook the World.” a book based on interviews with Bush administration people stating that “President George W. Bush and his senior aides considered — and rejected — a military response to Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia.”

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0210/32487.html#ixzz0v8I7tmCO

    • Replies: @Yalensis
    @A Good Treaty

    During Russia-Georgia war of 2008 I recall seeing videos on you-tube depicting American contractors (probably Blackwater) working alongside Georgian troops on Ossetian frontline. American soldiers shot these videos themselves on own cellphones as souvenirs, but then a couple of days later were killed in battle. The cellphones were captured as trophies by Russian troops, and posted on you-tube. Russian troops also captured, as trophy, American hummer filled with communications equipment and used on battlefield, but abandoned by fleeing Georgian troops. I mention this just to point out that, even without blowing up Roki tunnel, American and Russian troops did actually clash on battlefield in 2008, first time ever, I believe, since Russian civil war.

  • @Anatoly Karlin
    @Anonymous

    I don't see how the Pentagon "can't account" for $13tn (source?) when its annual budget is less than $1tn. Do you mean to say that the Pentagon has stolen everything allocated over the past generation, or something?!

    That said, the number of countries tracked by Transparency International nearly doubled from 91 to 180 during the period under consideration. So quoting Russia's slippage in ranking was, I think, a blunder on AGT's part.

    As for the reliability of the CPI itself... well, one can debate the issue for pages on end (and people do). Personally, I don't put much stock in it, for the very simple reason that equating Russia's corruption (2.2) with countries like Zimbabwe (2.2) or Congo (1.9) would appear to be ludicrous from any comparative perspective rooted in common sense. I mean for chrissake, Congo exports $1bn in gold annually, most of which accrue to profits. How much of these does their Treasury rake in? A cool $37,000. Russia looks like Sweden by comparison!

    Now I don't want to draw this out for too much longer, but IMO, 1) Russia's "Real Corruption Index" would be at around 4-5 (the likes of Greece, Mexico, Turkey) and 2) it did not worsen but rather stagnated or improved slightly during the 2000's.

    Replies: @A Good Treaty

    Anatoly, thanks for setting me straight on my claim about Russia’s ranking drop. I had not realized that the pool of countries doubled. This was sheer laziness on my part. Apologies all around.

    I wonder if you could be a little more specific about why you distrust the CPI’s methodology. I understand that you think the results are far-fetched, but presumably it’s how Transparency International arrived at its conclusions that we should scrutinize — not its unappealing or hard-to-believe results. A detailed overview of their process is available here:
    http://www.transparency.org/content/download/47733/762810/CPI_2009_methodology_long_en.pdf

    If you can turn up something concretely “ludicrous,” I would be interested to hear it. Honestly. (I don’t mean that as some impossible challenge — I’m just curious.) My impression at least is that these guys know what they’re doing.

    I understand that people are offended by the idea that Russia is crippled by un-European-like levels of corruption. Perhaps I should have avoided making a comparison to Africa. This sort of language, after all, is meant only to be sort of ‘shocking,’ and I’ll admit that it’s a tad cheap. But my point is simply that Russia faces a very serious corruption problem that undermines its efforts to further develop and thrive. Medvedev has signed no less than seventeen presidential orders laying out anti-corruption measures (http://kremlin.ru/search?query=%D0%BA%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%80%D1%83%D0%BF%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%8F&section=2&order=&since=1.1.2008&till=1.8.2010&data_type=&rview=full&limit=20). And then there’s the fact that the man himself came out and told the country that “significant successes in the battle against corruption have yet to come” (http://kremlin.ru/news/8341).

    I’m all for calling out Western observers for double-standards, but when I talk about the threat corruption poses to Russia, I’m not saying a word about illegitimate governance in the U.S. or in Sweden or in Africa, or anywhere but Russia. Let’s be real here and realize that it’s not Russophobic to discuss the Russian federal government’s policy hurdles. If you walked into a meeting with Medvedev and the Legislators Council (where he made that aforementioned admission of failure) and you told everyone in the room that the world unfairly accuses the Motherland of suffering from endemic corruption, you’d be told to shut up and asked to start thinking up solutions instead of excuses. This is a paramount domestic policy challenge for Russia. There’s no need to go into spasms of denial and start ranting about how America sucks too. So what if it sucks. We’re not talking about America! (For once.)

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @A Good Treaty

    1. Methodology problem: using different, changing mixes of different surveys to gauge a fluid, opaque-by-definition social phenomenon ("corruption") that can mean any number of different things in different cultures, and claim one decimal point accuracy to boot.

    2. Ludicrous isn't only in the Russia = Africa department. To take another example, Italy (4.3) and Greece (3.8) are apparently comparable to Saudi Arabia, where corruption is institutionalized in the flow of huge oil rents to privileged members of the House of Saud. Another ludicrous. Venezuela (1.9) is the same as Equatorial Guinea (1.8), and worse than Nigeria (2.5). Now I don't doubt that Venezuelan bureaucrats pilfer a lot, but the Venezuelan state (neocon propaganda to the contrary) does provide middle-income country type social services and has greatly expanded them in the last ten years (i.e. the majority of money is not stolen). In contrast, Equatorial Guinea is almost the definition of oil kleptocracy - the President and his buddies rake in all the petrodollars to their Swiss bank accounts, normal people live in a squalor undifferentiated from their Cameroonian neighbors. Basically, it's all a matter of degree. A few discrepancies between an index and real life observations is understandable. But beyond a certain point it becomes hard to take the whole CPI enterprise very seriously.

    3. I haven't, of course, claimed that corruption isn't a serious problem in Russia, nor that it's the same as in the US. I agree with you that Mr. Intelligence Perception Index should start off by assessing himself.

    Replies: @Glossy

  • @Anonymous
    "In 2001, Russia was 79th in Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index... While we shouldn’t attach apocalyptic significance to the designation of a number by a single NGO..."

    Anyone who considers those "corruption perception" numbers anything but propaganda by a sock puppet NGO can't be too bright.

    The Pentagon can't account for $13 TRILLION dollars, yet there was no official investigation, no one went to prison over "missing" such huge amount of money and the U.S. corruption perception index is 19. You see, missing trillions of dollars isn't corruption, it's just an accounting irregularity. And anyway, it's all about perceptions by some puppet NGO.

    My Intelligence Perception Index for this guy is 3 out of 10 (hint: higher is better)

    Replies: @A Good Treaty, @Anatoly Karlin

    LOL.

    Transparency International makes no secret of their methodology. They amalgamate 13 different sources to produce a quantified score, which they then rank. Here are their sources: the Country Performance Assessment Ratings by the Asian Development Bank, the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment by the African Development Bank, the Bertelsmann Transformation Index by the Bertelsmann Foundation, the Country Risk Service and Country Forecast by the Economist Intelligence Unit, Nations in Transit by Freedom House, Global Risk Service by IHS Global Insight, the World Competitiveness Report by the Institute for Management Development, Asian Intelligence by Political and Economic Risk Consultancy, the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment by the World Bank, and the Global Competitiveness Report by the World Economic Forum.

    The scores for both Russia and the U.S. were pulled from eight of these sources (though not the same eight sources). If you have issues with the research of any of these reports, I’m happy to hear your objections, but it seems to me that you’d prefer to get red in the face about how America is corrupt, too.

    Yeah, no shit. The USA is rated 19th, by the way — hardly a gold medal for ‘the exceptional nation.’

  • @Seansrussiablog
    Good interview. I'd be curious why you chose Slezkine's Communal Apartment. I don't disagree with the choice, just why you chose it.

    I personally think AGT is the best Russia blog out there at the moment. Good analysis, original, interesting topics and understands the importance of brevity.

    I would also like to hear more about the impending project with Adomanis wherever you guys are ready to spill the beans.

    Replies: @A Good Treaty

    Thanks for the kind words, Sean. I chose Slezkine’s piece because I think he addresses the most important issue that shaped the USSR (nationality) in a way that best illuminates the Russian Federation’s starting-point. It’s really hard for me to imagine trying to get a handle on contemporary Russian politics without appreciating the dynamics of the Soviet collapse. And for that, Yuri’s article is wonderful.

    Also, his metaphor (the communal apartment) is just good literature. It’s fun as shit to read. For others who haven’t seen it yet, or for those who might not remember it completely, have a look at his concluding paragraph, where he really brings the literary tropes home:

    This points to another great tension in Soviet nationality policy: the coexistence of republican statehood and passport nationality. The former assumed that territorial states made nations, the latter suggested that primordial nations might be entitled to their own states. The former presupposed that all residents of Belorussia would (and should) someday become Belorussian, the latter provided the non-Belorussian residents with arguments against it. The Soviet government endorsed both definitions without ever attempting to construct an ethnically meaningful Soviet nation or turn the USSR into a Russian nation state, so that when the non-national Soviet state had lost its Soviet meaning, the national non-states were the only possible heirs. Except for the Russian Republic, that is. Its borders were blurred, its identity was not clearly ethnic and its “titular” residents had trouble distinguishing between the RSFSR and the USSR. Seventy years after the X Party Congress the policy of indigenization reached its logical conclusion: the tenants of various rooms barricaded their doors and started using the windows, while the befuddled residents of the enormous hall and kitchen stood in the center scratching the backs of their heads. Should they try to recover their belongings? Should they knock down the walls? Should they cut off the gas? Should they convert their “living area” into a proper apartment?

  • @poemless
    Excellent piece! Are we all finally getting beyond the stale Russophobe/phile frame? This was refreshingly -dare I say it?- realistic. More intelligent and informed than anything I have read in a while on the topic.

    And no, I am not posting this comment from the grave.

    Replies: @A Good Treaty

    Glad you’re feeling better, poemless! I eagerly await your reaction to Surkov’s visit to Селигер-2010! If you’re not preparing anything already, I hope you’ll take it up and share your thoughts.

  • @peter
    I think "A Good Treaty" is one of the better blogs in the genre, I really do, but a quick name count reveals the extent of a typical Russia-watcher's insight into Russian politics: Putin 14, Kozlovsky 8, Medvedev 5, Khodorkovsky/Milov/Yashin/Yeltsin 4, Kasparov 3, Illarionov/Kondrashov 2, Chapman/Estemirova/Gontmakher/Kudrin/Luzhkov/Magnitsky/Shevchuk/Surkov/Yakemenko 1. Not interested.

    Replies: @A Good Treaty

    Peter, I see your point, and I agree that it gets tiresome to discuss the headline-news figures over and over, but this was a fairly general discussion, so I’m not sure it would have been germane to have explored lesser known individuals here.

    • Replies: @peter
    @A Good Treaty

    The problem is proportions rather than scope. I will explain.

    As you surely agree, the current Russian political system is largely a simulacrum: Medvedev isn't really a president, Putin isn't really a prime minister, and Kasparov et al. aren't really opposition figures because there's no such thing as active political opposition in Russia in the first place. Hence, this whole Russophobe(phile) debate about evil (gorgeous) Putin vs. useless (useless) Medvedev vs. heroic (clownish) liberal opposition largely misses the point. Как-то так.

    Replies: @A Good Treaty, @Anatoly Karlin

  • Labor Day 2010 Special - a list of the most influential, interesting, and readable English-language blogs about Russia. But first, a few caveats. Inclusion does not mean that I agree with everything - or in La Russophobe's case, almost anything* - the author says. Second, don't take any of this personally. Being ranked below La...
  • @Anonymous
    This page cracks me up! When I read the back and forth, I really get the feeling of the whole lot sitting in front of their computers in their pajamas at noon meticulously calculating how many stats they get over their arch enemies on the trollosphere. "Veteran of the field," Zing! "quite predictable and repetitive..." LOL!!!

    AK -- nice that he put himself in his own list of top 10 Russia blogs, then says that LR is an egomaniac.

    LR -- I actually think that she is a performance artist and that her whole site is a hilarious parody and the joke is on the readers. She picks fights with people who agree with her. Can't be for real.

    Adomanis -- his stuff on Ukraine cracks me up: "the Ukraine," "Yushenko," "Kiev", "Yanukovich"... it's like when people misspell "Barack Obama" -- likely they haven't any real insight enough to use correct spelling. "Neocons love Ukraine, hate Russia", "As for my qualifications, they shouldn't matter." Explains how he ended up as a guest on RT as an "expert."

    Averko -- "independent writer, analyst and media critic" = hack. At least Sean admits he is between jobs.

    Replies: @A Good Treaty

    The Russified transliterations of Ukrainian words and names is pretty common. Seeing as how far more outsiders are reading Russian language sources when it comes to Ukrainian news, I think we can all understand why it’s Kiev instead of Kyiv for most people. (Try googling “Kyiv” and the first hit is for “Kiev.”)

    Otherwise, you sound like you’re generally well entertained. Glad to hear it.

  • Thanks for the shout-out, Anatoly. I’m happy to be included among such talented company. Sean and Mark are definitely leading the pack these days, with Sean being a veteran of the field and Mark writing nearly every day. In terms of unexpectedness, you and Poemless always manage to surprise me the most with the topics of your posts. It all makes for a great mix of smart buzz-commentary and original insights.

    LR’s list also includes Julia Ioffe, incidentally. I guess that makes her the winner of the Internets?

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @A Good Treaty

    SWP comes higher on both LR's and my list, so I guess he's the winner on this criterion! ;)

  • The recent sinking of a South Korean (ROK) corvette, with the probable deaths of several dozen sailors, brings to focus the fraught situation on the Korean peninsula. Now the cause of this incident - North Korean (DPRK) torpedo or tragic accident - is not yet clear. Moreover, the two sides have a long history of...
  • Wow, I don’t know where you find the time to put together such frequent, well-researched pieces on events so recent. Very nice work.