* BASED. Serbia’s Vucic stabs Drumpf in the back, reneging on the commitment to move his embassy to Jerusalem, also proclaims he “firmly believes that the Communist Party of China will continue leading the Chinese people to stride forward along the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics.”

2 things:

1; Serbia’s government made it clear pretty much after the “Washington Agreement” was signed that it intended to move Serbia’s embassy to Jerusalem only if Israel continued to not recognize Kosovo. The structure of the whole agreement was that Serbia signed it with the USA, not Kosovo Albanians (they only signed it with the USA in turn) or Israel. Bizarre enough (the whole agreement is wierd), Serbia only “promised” to the USA, not Israel, that it would move its embassy to Jerusalem, so it owes Israel nothing (Vucic even made this clear in phone calls to Netanyahu).

The Jewish State of Israel decided to recognize the Albanian “Republic” of Kosovo while the latter moved its embassy to Jerusalem. It’s simply unthinkable that Serbia would reward Israel for such a hostile act.

Also, there was some pressure and activity on the part of Palestine and Turkey to object/protest against Serbia moving its embassy to Jerusaleum. Vucic and Erdogan even had a whole meeting about it where Vucic called out Erdogan for being a hypocrite in recognizing Kosovo while whining about illegal Jewish occupation of Jerusalem.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_and_Serbia_economic_normalization_agreements_(2020)#Unfavourable

At any rate, the “Kosovo-Serbia conflict” and “Israel-Palestine conflict” have become connected issues where Serbia has been reduced to Palestine’s position, especially Serbs south of the River Ibar pretty much endure in nearly the same condition from Albanian settler colonialism that West Bank Palestinians do from Jewish settler colonialism (livestock raid-thefts are an example of a common practices from both settler-colonial groups)…

2; Nothing in the Washington Agreement bans Serbia from having relations with China. Only Huawei 5 G (not referred to explicitly, vague clause). Serbia anyway could use many other different from of economic relations with China before 5G anyway.

Anyone tracking the conflict between PKK and the Turkish state?

Is PKK really on the verge of breaking point in Iraq?

In general it looks like Kurds are going to be screwed once the US military withdraws from the Middle East. There’s already talk about a US military withdrawal from Iraq. That would abandon PKK not just in Iraq but also in Syria (YPG seems to just be the Syrian branch of PKK), since the US military presence in North East Syria can’t be viable without a coastal connection via Iraq.

Submitting to Syria and Iran looks like the best/least bad option Kurds will have in the event of an inevitable US military withdrawal, sooner or later. It’s possible the upcoming breakdown of the Iran nuclear deal (seems very probable) will cause the US military presence in Iraq-Syria to continue in the short term (at least next few years)?

They are still relatively weak in terms of nuclear forces relative to Russia or the US.

I think it’s possible China’s elite may actually be prepared to wait even 2-3 more decades to go after Taiwan just so it can have a nuclear arsenal at least half as large and strong as the USA’s.

Still, I have the unpopular opinion that the most decisive factor in a future war/clash of China vs USA over Taiwan will in fact be, Russia. Russia has the worlds largest and strongest nuclear arsenal. Ever since the USSR’s collapse and US violation of the promise to not expand NATO eastwards, the USA has been doing an excellent job ever since 1991 of persuading Russia to side with China in a USA vs China war over Taiwan, even and most decisively Russia bringing the threat of its nuclear arsenal to bear on China’s side.

Say that China invades Taiwan (maybe someone in USA elite becomes dumb or crazy enough to provoke China by openly backing Taiwan independence declaration) > US Naval Aircraft Carries React and travel (maybe not even close to Taiwan, but just militarized Chinese islands) within Chinese missile range > US aircraft carrier easily sunk > USA threatens to Nuke China in retaliation > Russia intervenes and threatens to nuke USA and 2v1 nuclear war against USA, which USA obviously can’t win > USA backs down without launching nukes > USA society literally breaks out into Civil War and Central/Federal government utterly collapses as a lost war/clash is more than enough to trigger domestic collapse.

At least the above would be the most ideal scenario for everyone that doesn’t depend on the US Empire or has a stake in its maintenance, in other words, the overwhelming majority of the world population.

https://www.dailysabah.com/world/mid-east/lebanons-hezbollah-fires-rockets-into-israel-after-airstrikes

Wouldn’t get my hopes up just yet if I were you. Maybe many more migrants to come.

https://www.indianpunchline.com/jcpoa-a-bridge-too-far/

https://www.indianpunchline.com/a-new-dawn-breaks-in-tehran/

Bhadrakumar seems to think that an Iran nuclear deal is still possible.

It’s clear that a war between Iran and Israel is inevitable at some point. It’s not a matter of if, but when and how. In a sense, Iran and Israel are already at war through IDF vs Hezbollah skirmishes for years already, but since 2006, no decisive clash has happened just yet. Depending on the intensity of war between Israel and Iran in the future, maybe there’s nothing more than just a 2nd attempt by the IDF to successfully invade Lebanon and expel Hezbollah coming up. Maybe Israel has decided upon all out war and since it can’t conventionally invade Iran with the IDF or even the US military, it will just nuke Iran and Lebanon (as a Hezbollah stronghold). Or there might be something in between.
Or there might be a nuclear deal. Or the status quo of intense skirmishing between the IDF and Hezbollah continues. Who really knows?

Whatever happens, Unz Review will be chock full of coverage of it, just like the Hamas vs IDF showdown over Gaza back in May 2021.

I’m actually somewhat doubtful of this. The two countries have been threatening each other with annihilation since at least 1993

Well, I’m not an expert on Middle East/West Asia or Iran v Israel affairs, but to me it seems like prolonged and intense skirmishing must escalate into something decisive at some point.

Back on topic, I don’t know if 2006 was really a decisive victory, more of a stalemate where both sides claimed victory, although perhaps a strategic victory for Hezbollah

I’m inclined to think it was a strategic victory for Hezbollah, although won at a price in terms of manpower, human capital (dead/wounded quality-veteran officers) and material resources more expensive than the devout anti-Israel crowd would like to admit.

I suspect there’s actually a good deal of internal disagreement within Iran about obtaining Nuclear Weapons, much of the religious establishment (as did Khomeini) opposes them as ‘un-Islamic’, and I tend to believe that they’re sincere.

I’m inclined to think as reiner Tor explains in comment #501 that most of Iran’s elite intends to use the threat of getting nuclear weapons to actually back down from it, in order to extract the obvious political and economic benefits. Maybe apart from a possible few hardcore types in the IRGC and Hezbollah that would actually want to nuke Israel, even if it meant MAD, that would most probably be in Israel’s favor.

Israel eventually did murder several prominent Iranian nuclear scientists (probably via the MEK), one in a rather grisly motorbike shooting.

As A123 points out in comment #493, Israel could very well have a bunch of anti-Iran and anti-Hezbollah 5th columns latently waiting to be activated. Apart from MEK and some Lebanese “dissidents”, there’s also Kurdish and Azeri separatism in Iran that could be activated if the circumstances are right, similar to Syria back in 2011-2015.

Australians stupid enough to work for them too.

Lol, I vaguely remember something about this. Any sources/links to provide if you don’t mind?

I think Israel is much more worried about propping up the Saudi family, the de-facto partition of Syria and the future orientation of Iraq at the moment. Overall though, other than Iran itself, Israel’s grand-strategy since the 50’s (The Lavon Plan, i.e., setting the whole Middle-East on fire) has worked out almost perfectly.

The position of the Saudi family and “orientation” of Iraq seems pretty much inevitable to turn against Israel without the US military in both places (Only Bahrain’s mere existence as a country with its ~40% pro-Iran Shia minority-majority seems even more unviable than the continued rule of the Saudi family lol). Iran with Hezbollah and other Shia militias is already the strongest local military actor in Iraq, even though the US military is still nominally present. With hindsight, devastating Iraq so much, especially with the 2003 invasion, was a grave, and perhaps even fatal mistake for Israel-USA as it’s had the consequence of making Iran stronger by completely eliminating Iraq as a relevant enemy of Iran, which once used to have relative parity back in the 1980’s.

Even though Israel has done well from 1948-2000, slowly but gradually and definitively, the tide seems to be turning against Israel in the long term (and no, the UAE+Bahrain “normalization” agreements with Israel are illusory since they don’t reflect popular opinion, especially not in Bahrain, let alone all the other Arab countries). Iran and Syria could very well prove to be Israel’s ultimate undoing as the former has gained a “Shia crescent” for Hezbollah and other militias from Iran to Lebanon through Syria and Iraq (ironically).

Syria’s still not out of the picture as Assad and the overwhelming majority of Syrians that support him of different religions, ethnicities and political identities (Druze, Alawites, Sunni “moderates”, secularists, etc.) were basically saved by Russia from ultimate defeat (Iran through Hezbollah and other militias only prolonged Assad’s survival to the point of Russian intervention, and provides manpower which is valuable but not decisive). The Kurdish de-facto autonomy/self-rule in the North-East is also completely unviable without the US military presence. It’s the most probable variable to shift the situation from the current Syrian stalemate as the scramble for the Kurdish North-East between Assad and Erdogan unfolds once the US military inevitably leaves at some point. Back on topic, Assad’s Syria hasn’t surrendered its legitimate claim on the Golan Heights illegaly occupied by Israel, which could potentially become a live issue at any time in the future considering the many wars already fought between Syria and Israel since 1948.

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/russia-upgrades-syrian-air-defense-against-israeli-strikes-report

Until the last few years, Israel has usually had the upper hand in its skirmishes against Hezbollah-Iran and Syria, but there are indications the tide could very well start to turn in the future (especially for Syria as Russia arms it against just like back in the Cold War times).

By the way, did you used to comment under the “TheTotallyAnonymous”? Although despite your name, I suspect not, or you would have somehow brought up Croatian and Albanian evildoings already.

Regarding the somewhat strange and awkward sounding title of this commenting handle, I actually picked it up from a Croat nationalist podcast on YouTube, since only there of all places could one hear such a hysterically expressed phrase like “Veliko Srpsko Cetnistvo” (Greater Serbian Chetnikhood). Its use is meant to be somewhat sarcastic/embracing the “bad reputation” like many Serb Twitter accounts do where they sarcastically refer to themselves in the description as “Greater Serbian Aggressors”, “Serb Genociders”, and so on. Honestly though, it’s really just well, so what?

Contrary to the hysterical screeching of Croats, Muslims (Bosniaks), and Albanians, the Chetnik movement was actually quite unremarkable and akin to many other generic guerilla/paramilitary movements throughout the world, with a decent and occasionally impressive military performance all-round given their circumstances, but unlike claims of multiple “Chetnik Genocides against Croats, Bosniaks and Albanians”, Chetniks in reality committed war crimes (when they even did) mostly in retaliation for crimes against Serbs (I know of only one instance pre-1910 against Bulgarians in Macedonia that Vojvoda Tankosic slaughtered and burned down a Bulgarian populated village completely unprovoked). Of course, the “Greater Serbia” hysteria is completely baseless because everyone that screeches about it has absolutely no problems with Greater Croatia, Greater Albania, Greater Bulgaria, let alone Greater Bosnia and Herzegovina + Greater Montenegro, or yes, even Greater “Macedonia” lol.

Otherwise, you can guess for yourself if this is a continuation of “TheTotallyAnonymous”, although if you bothered to notice the first comment I made under this account, it highlighted some similarities in the nature of Albanian and Jewish (perhaps the term “Israeli” is more correct, although it seems to be used as a polite and non “anti-Semitic” way of referring to Jews in Israel, especially regarding their bad behavior) settler-colonialisms.

Regarding Croatian and Albanian evildoings, there are lifetimes worth to be expanded upon that, nevertheless it may be sufficient to outline some of the latest and most relevant plots currently being pushed against Serbs.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/media/uploads/documents/WC%20Consolidating%20Kosovo%27s%20Sovereignty%20report%208.3.2021.pdf

Clearly a coalition of Early Life Checks (Eliot Engel, Edward Joseph, Daniel Serwer, and Jason Steinbaum), Albanians, Muslims (Bosnian + an Ummah contributor), Actual + Semi/Crypto-Croats, and actual Westerners (mostly “Liberals”) has been working against Serbs for a long time (this “report” is far from the first of its kind).

The TLDR of the “report” amounts to a few points.

1: Pressure Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain to recognize Kosovo’s independence as the 5 defiant EU and NATO members (4 NATO members actually, since Cyprus isn’t in NATO) that don’t recognize Kosovo. The intent is for them to betray Serbia over Kosovo similar to how the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco have betrayed Palestine by recognizing Israel in the past year or so. This is disturbingly realistic regarding Greece (it’s under enormous pressure by the USA to recognize Kosovo, and Turkey is seriously threatening Greece on many different fronts) since it has already engaged in economic and other normalization with Kosovo, almost de-facto recognizing Kosovo, sort of like Saudi Arabia and Israel. Greece hasn’t officially recognized Kosovo so far, partly because Serbia has come up with the threat of recognizing Turkish North Cyprus in retaliation should it come to that, but I think neither side is enthusiastic to take those steps since it would be a noteworthy instance of joint political suicide by Greece and Serbia to the delight of their enemies.

2: It doesn’t state this explicitly, but it’s like the authors of the report almost want to openly call for Serbia being economically sanctioned (Serbia is somehow “privileged” by the “West” merely because it isn’t being sanctioned lol) simply because it dares to preserve and be committed to the relative status quo in the Balkans of Dayton Peace Treaty (preserving the mere existence of Republika Srpska), UNSC 1244 (simply continuing to refuse to recognize Kosovo) and the nonsense hysteria about “Serb proxies” (yes, the report uses that phrase) taking over Montenegro when in reality Serbia wants to secure the rights, wellbeing and privilege’s of Serbs in Montenegro against “national Montenegrin” scum, nothing more. Economic sanctions against FRY in the 1990’s were very jarring so most Serbs freak out whenever there’s even the remotest threat of economic sanctions against Serbia. Maybe they shouldn’t, since Milorad Dodik as the de-facto leader of Republika Srpska, is already under US sanctions for several years for “undermining Bosnia-Herzegovina’s territorial integrity” and iirc even being “a malign Russian actor”. It’s not the 1990’s anymore and sanctions against Serbia are increasingly becoming more difficult and unviable to execute. Should it come to that though, Orban’s Hungary would do its best to resist in the EU (obviously a favorable outcome for Viktor Orban and Hungary in their clash with Brussels is very important for Serbia), perhaps making economic sanctions against Serbia a non-starter or at least buying lots of time for Serbia to brace itself. China as a much more serious economic power would also be able to sustain Serbia much better than it tried to in the 1990’s.

3: They call for a revival of the campaign for the Albanian “Republic” of Kosovo (of course, there’s a lot of bullshit about Kosovo, Montenegro and North Macedonia’s “civic multi-ethnic harmony” and the evil “Serbia-Milosevic genociders” spoiling these fantasies about the Balkans) to continue lobbying to join noteworthy international organizations (UN, UNESCO, Interpol, etc.) and recognition by individual states. Kurti already intends to openly push for Kosovo’s recognition at the end of this September once the 1-year deadline on international lobbying on the Washington Agreement expires. Erdogan also brazenly called for international recognition of Kosovo and stated his intention to raise the issue of mutually cooperating with Joe Biden on supporting Kosovo against Serbia in their upcoming meeting, among their other bilateral issues. They’re all in for a nasty surprise since there was a lot of talk first about 5, and now about 10 countries which intend to withdraw their recognitions of Kosovo when Serbia asks them to do so.

https://www.b92.net/eng/news/politics.php?yyyy=2021&mm=08&dd=02&nav_id=111410

Also, the whole Belgrade-Pristina Brussels Dialogue is breaking down and its been a pathetic failure for several years already (it literally makes the OSCE Minsk Dialogue/Process between Armenia and Azerbaijan look good in comparison lol). Kurti literally has the audacity to accuse Serbia of committing 3 genocides against Albanians in the past 200 years. Seems like Albanians want to go down the road of Bosniaks and whining about how they’re victims of 11, or however many genocides lol.

http://prijedor24h.net/2018/07/30/vranjes-bosnjaci-napravise-dokumentarac-u-kojem-tvrde-da-su-zrtve-cak-11-genocida/

“Vranjes: Bosniaks make ‘documentary’ in which they claim they are victims of even 11 genocides”.

4: There is the obvious suggestion of arming “Kosovo” against Serbia, which is nothing new really. Even under the supposedly “based” and “pro-Serb” Trump in 2018, the “Republic” of Kosovo began forming its own army in yet another flagrant violation of UNSC 1244, the KSF (“Kosovo Security Force”), which is literally just rebranded KLA/UCK terrorists that will be given lots of heavy weapons this time. What’s more interesting is the current state of an arms race in the “Western Balkans”/Former-Yugoslavia with Serbs on one end, against Albanians and Croats on the other. Serbia is armed by Russia and China, while it has its own domestic arms industry which is quite impressive for a country of its size (not only in terms of unique weapon types, but also size and scale of revival under Vucic). Albanians (both Kosovo and Albania) are being armed by the USA, Germany, and Turkey with all sorts of heavy weapons (notably Wesley Clark intends to visit Kosovo to deliver a few standard US military Predator drones) while Croats are being armed by the USA, Israel and France (seems like France will sell ~12 Rafale fighter jets to Croatia).

Not a perfect and completely up to date list, but decent enough:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Serbian_Armed_Forces

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Croatian_Army

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosovo_Security_Force#Weapons_and_equipment

https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/albania-earmarks-over-9m-for-turkish-bayraktar-tb2-ucavs

This whole comment is probably already long enough, even though this is an Open Thread and almost literally anything goes, but I may as well finish up.

5: Seemingly, no mention of Serbia can be complete without the issue of “Genocide” being brought up. Obviously the “genocide bludgeon” is going to continue to be relentlessly hammered and mauled against Serbs until they break, but since Vucic ascended in 2012 it’s mostly too late, and the times of easily bullying Serbs with “Genocide” accusations and charges are past. Montenegro, “Kosovo”, Croatia and Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina have adopted “Srebrenica Genocide” resolutions, but no one else in the world has actually done it (although the campaign is seemingly never-ending), so apart from making life worse for Serb minorities in these places, who really gives a shit?

https://betabriefing.com/news/region/15952-republika-srpska-assembly-rejects-genocide-denial-ban

Bosnia and Herzegovina is currently the hottest flashpoint in the “Western Balkans”. Vucic even claims the situation on the ground is currently as tense as it was in late 1996 right during the implementation of Dayton when despite US-NATO military saturation, everyone thought the war might restart again. Russia made a failed effort to veto the appointment of Christian Schmidt as Bosnia-Herzegovina’s new High Representative/Colonial Governor in the UNSC but was simply bypassed. Yes, the existence of the OHR/Office of the High Representative is a truly bizarre colonial-imperialist institution and an embarrassment for anti-Serbs and pro Bosnia-Herzegovina activists. Russia and China also tried to pass a UNSC resolution abolishing the institution of OHR but that was vetoed by the USA and several allies/vassals.

The next issue will be the continuation of the mandate of EUFOR (EU military occupation force in Bosnia-Herzegovina), which Russia and likely even China will team to veto in the UNSC at this year’s end, but will probably be de-facto bypassed yet again. The ultimate flashpoint will be Brcko district since it de-facto splits Republika Srpska in two disconnected halves. In 2022 there may well be a Bosnia-Herzegovina crisis due to an effort of deploying US-NATO-EU troops in Brcko District, economic sanctions against Republika Srpska, and severe pressure (economic sanctions and even military threats) against Serbia to stay out. Unfortunately, similar outcomes like 1878 and 1908 are possible, although it would be amazing if it turned out like 1914 with WW3, yet another world war due to the international-political subjectivity of the territory of Bosnia-Herzegovina again lol, but with an added touch of nuclear arsenals flying (Unfortunately I don’t think Russia and China are ready to defend Republika Srpska with their nuclear arsenals).

Obviously it won’t hopefully come to that and it’s maybe possible the USA is simply too busy with other issues to really try a military attempt to abolish Republika Srpska, but who honestly knows, really? Ironically, even though the intent of “Srebrenica Genocide” is to abolish and eliminate Repbulika Srpska, it has resulted in the boycott of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s state institutions by Republika Srpska, so it may very well have an opposite effect, maybe making the dissolution and collapse of Bosnia-Herzegovina inevitable in the future in hindsight, or at least the major crisis or even war that results from the sequence of events further on. It’s not an unreasonable assumption to think its likely Serbia will risk war and economic sanctions with Bosniaks, Croats, Albanians and NATO-USA-EU for the sake of defending Republika Srpska, even if its only a shortlived and valiant but failed effort, it still has the possibility of working since the “West” (or some of its factions) has rarely (WW1, 1941 and 1999 exempted) been willing to deploy and commit extremely serious and disproportionate economic and military resources (hundreds of thousands of soldiers) to stomping Serbs and Serbia.

Otherwise, regarding muh “Bytyqi brothers”, how about US citizens don’t join terrorist groups (even recognized as such by a US government official – Robert Gelbard), especially ones with records of atrocious crimes (while of course falsely presenting them as “innocent Albanian civilians” like all KLA/UCK scum), and then whine when they are executed by unknown lower ranked Serb Special Anti-Terrorist-Unit personnel while their commanding officer, Goran Radosavljevic (whom they baselessly try to pin the guilt on) was absent on vacation?

It’s clear that a war between Iran and Israel is inevitable at some point. It’s not a matter of if, but when and how. In a sense, Iran and Israel are already at war through IDF vs Hezbollah skirmishes for years already, but since 2006, no decisive clash has happened just yet.

I’m actually somewhat doubtful of this. The two countries have been threatening each other with annihilation since at least 1993, just like Netanyahu has ad nauseum warning that Iran is ‘a few months away from the bomb’ since about the same time.
As an aside, following the Gulf War, Israel even extended a hand (covertly, of course, it was conducted via an Arab-American businessman, working for oil company, managed by a Jewish-American) to Saddam Hussein, offering a lineline for Iraq to circumvent American sanctions, particularly oil sales. Obviously, it was another one of those so-lauded Israeli ‘peace’ deals, conducted solely to enable another war, just as Begin made peace with Egypt so Israel could conduct its Lebanon adventure (the complications of which heavily contributed to Begin losing his sanity around ’82).

Back on topic, I don’t know if 2006 was really a decisive victory, more of a stalemate where both sides claimed victory, although perhaps a strategic victory for Hezbollah, considering Israel wasn’t even able to occupy the old ‘Security Zone’ (lol) whereas earlier the IDF and its proxies (now reviled within Lebanon, with zero political power) rapidly overran the whole country up to Beirut.

Bhadrakumar seems to think that an Iran nuclear deal is still possible.

I suspect there’s actually a good deal of internal disagreement within Iran about obtaining Nuclear Weapons, much of the religious establishment (as did Khomeini) opposes them as ‘un-Islamic’, and I tend to believe that they’re sincere. Khamenei himself sends mixed signals for domestic consumption, fence-sitting or being purposely inscrutable as he does on so many internal issues.

Maybe Israel has decided upon all out war and since it can’t conventionally invade Iran with the IDF or even the US military, it will just nuke Iran and Lebanon (as a Hezbollah stronghold).

Netanyahu actually ordered a conventional airstrikes on Iran, twice, back in the late 90s and the early 2010s, but was overriden by the Israeli security establishment (who can’t stand him, btw) in both instances. Israel eventually did murder several prominent Iranian nuclear scientists (probably via the MEK), one in a rather grisly motorbike shooting. Compatively restrained, considering the Mossad frequently gets too lazy for such precision and and ends up killing its victims’ entire families as well. Sometimes they get sloppy and murder random Moroccan waiters or Australians stupid enough to work for them too.

Or the status quo of intense skirmishing between the IDF and Hezbollah continues. Who really knows?

I think Israel is much more worried about propping up the Saudi family, the de-facto partition of Syria and the future orientation of Iraq at the moment. Overall though, other than Iran itself, Israel’s grand-strategy since the 50’s (The Lavon Plan, i.e., setting the whole Middle-East on fire) has worked out almost perfectly.

By the way, did you used to comment under the “TheTotallyAnonymous”? Although despite your name, I suspect not, or you would have somehow brought up Croatian and Albanian evildoings already.

No. I pointed put that Iranian patriots can take back their own country from deranged zealot revolutionaries.

Besides… 5th Columns are not needed.

There’s no need to be disingenuous.

https://besacenter.org/dismantle-iran-now/

Literal Ex-IDF Lieutenant Colonel calls for balkanization of Iran lol.

Although yes, there are some genuine “Persian patriots” that would want to overthrow the Islamic regime violently.

You are very inconsistent in your views. If you love UN meddling in Jewish Palestine via UNRWA, you should love UN meddling in Kosovo. Personally, I would prefer to see the UN abolished. That would end interference in both Kosovo and Jewish Palestine.

The UN itself isn’t necessarily the problem, just the fact that it’s constantly abused and merely a platform for the interests of whoever can possibly get their way through its organizations (Mostly the USA and Israel, although also pro-Palestine interest group in some cases) . The UNSC is the only remotely serious institution (even that has its limits) out of everything the UN offers (UN Assembly is pure symbolism, sometimes important, but with almost no substance). Overall, the UN is mostly obsolete and outdated. It could use a lot of structural reforms, improvements and downsizing, although perhaps even complete abolition of the UN would work more smoothly than sceptics think. World affairs and “humanity” have done just fine without the UN for thousands of years anyway.

Israel is still overwhelmingly powerful in the area. Although they didn’t reach their maximal goal of installing a client regime in Syria, the country was thoroughly destroyed and won’t pose any sort of threat for a long time.

I’m admittedly biased in favor of Assad’s Syria (Christian minorities as well, of course) and honestly don’t consider myself a “fan” of any other Middle-Eastern actors (especially not Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, not that Israel is always necessarily the worst out of those 4 actors). Lebanon and the UAE are also interesting and sympathetic (the latter’s role in anti-Turkey proxy wars and political operations especially), although they’re heading in unenviable directions. Lebanon seems to be becoming an even more deeply entrenched Hezbollah stronghold (with Lebanese Christians having almost completely emigrated due to endless Israel-Hezbollah fighting), while the UAE’s mere existence will be in question once the US military leaves the Gulf (although Mohammed bin Zayed seems to be the most skilled of Gulf Arab politicians and might work something out).

Russia’s military presence provides Syria with a core base of territory, population and resources around which any recovery can always be based on, no matter how long it may take. The Kurdish North-East will clearly be up for grabs once the US military leaves inevitably (similar to Afghanistan currently).

The Golan was formally annexed in 2019 after Cheeto Hitler recognised it as ‘integral’, along with the Jerusalum embassy.

After the USA and Guatemala moved their embassies to Jerusalem, the Albanian “Republic” of Kosovo did so, likely permanently killing the initiative of legitimizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital (having Serbia move its embassy to Jerusalem would obviously be much more valuable than Albanian Kosovo lol).

https://twitter.com/Syria_Protector/status/1424143556479000579

Alongside Serbia, many more countries to come (Hungary, Greece, Denmark, UAE, Jordan, etc.) will be moving their embassies to Damascus, the capital of the Syrian state of Syria, instead of to Jerusalem, “capital” of the Jewish state of Israel. Serbia did admittedly open a Chamber of Commerce in Jerusalem, but that’s fine since Serbia’s most basic interest in the Middle East is to increase economic relations with almost all actors (diversifying trade away from EU economies as much as possible). As an interesting side-note, an underrated positive upside of the September 2020 Washington Agreement for Serbia was an improvement and upgrading of Serbia’s relations with the UAE and Bahrain.

I don’t see it. Israel has performed the impressive feat of maintaining very friendly relations with both Russia, China and the United States, even whilst keeping ties with Ukraine and Taiwan.

https://www.indianpunchline.com/russia-israel-ties-are-like-matryoshka-dolls/

Middle-East/West Asia geopolitics is in constant flux with lots of possibilities (partly as a result of the state of endless war in many areas).

The friction between Iran and Russia over spheres of influence in Syria is interesting and underrated. So far it seems Assad balances carefully between Iran and Russia, using Hezbollah and Iranian militias to free the southwest from “Syrian opposition” scum (although this means being subjected to more airstrikes by Israel), while having Russia provide relative security, stability and prosperity in the areas its military covers. It remains to be seen whether Russia and Iran can “co-exist” in Syria, or whether Russia will jealously pry Syria away from Iran (since Iran obviously can’t possibly expel the Russian military from Syria).

Relations with Jordan are excellent, the only minimally functioning Arab country that still keeps a cold distance from Israel is Egypt, but its leadership is terrified of Israel and does everything it can to avoid provoking it, anway.

Why should Egypt ruin a decent deal that saw Israel return some of its occupied land in the Sinai to it?

Egypt clearly isn’t terrified enough of Israel to do anything meaningful about weapon smuggling routes to Hamas in Gaza. It could just be haplessness and incompetence, or even simply indifference, instead of connivance on Egypt’s part.

It is obvious to all rational observers that 5th column intervention is ineffective as a method for large scale change.

Let’s agree to disagree.

This I agree with.

The UN currently does more harm than good.

Perhaps the UNSC could be salvaged, but I am not sure that it is worth the effort.

Agree.

Maybe a Congress of Vienna or Council of Great Powers would be better instead?

The same purpose of the UNSC would be served and there would probably be much less vetoing and intransigent blocking, and instead hopefully more compromise, negotiation, flexibility, and even genuinely, lastingly agreed upon solutions?

“humanity” have done just fine without the UN for thousands of years anyway

Humanity didn’t have the weapons we do have currently. We could wage warfare without the risk of total destruction.

The Concert of Europe worked for a few decades in the early 19th century, and then for almost half a century from the 1870s to 1914. It was not a truly wonderful institution, but it was able to prevent highly destructive great power wars for a long time. Of course it broke down eventually.

I think instead of reforming the UN a more or less formalized Concert of the Great Powers could be created to make it easier for them to negotiate with each other and to de-escalate crises, while avoiding the (theoretically) legally binding and more formalized nature of the UN.

I would add the five permanent UNSC members, India and Japan on a permanent basis, and having the representatives of countries like Germany, Brazil, Pakistan, Turkey, a few more as observers. But maybe the US, China and Russia would suffice as truly permanent members. On an ad hoc basis other countries could be invited or be upgraded to participate in the negotiations where they have special interests, some permanent members might be left out in case of a lack of interest. I’m not sure that Japan needs to be involved in negotiations about some Ukrainian crisis, while Germany would definitely want.

Such a less formal loose group (but more formal than the G7 or G20, probably with a permanent secretariat, and the ability to organize summits or at least a foreign minister level meeting on a very short notice in case of a crisis) would perhaps eventually supersede the UN, while it would remain for some functions (e.g. ordering legally binding embargoes in certain cases) with a reduced prestige.

I’ve personally never heard of Hezbollah persecuting Christians in Lebanon or Syria, Hassan Nasrallah has also always come across as quite sane and reasonable. The fighting continues to be ‘endless’ because Israel doesn’t tolerate Hezbollah’s mere existence as a deterrent to Israel

I meant “endless Israel-Hezbollah fighting” as a neutral phrase that doesn’t take any sides. I also didn’t suggest it was necessarily Hezbollah’s fault for the emigration of Christians from Lebanon (Israel is arguably more responsible since it did much to cause the Lebanese Civil War with Palestinian expulsions, and then Hezbollah ultimately became the most powerful faction in Lebanon, ironically) or elsewhere in the Middle East. It does seem to be an objective fact that Hezbollah guarantees the rights and security of Christian minorities in Lebanon and Syria, if not out of genuine altruism, than at least out of an interest in having an economic and tax base for its movement.

You and A123 clearly feel very strongly about the situation in the Middle East (Levant mostly), especially Israel-Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Hezbollah, and Iran.

Yes, its a shame what’s happened to Lebanon’s Christians, and the middle-east more generally, as maintaining the most ancient traditions and cultures of the area. But considering they’ve been far better educated and wealthier (on average) than the Muslim majority, a steep demographic decline was probably inevitable.

I think its a matter of Christian minorities failing to carve out their own statehood or any sort of sovereignty/autonomy, along with failing to mass meaningful military and economic resources, to the point that even a group like the Kurds has more formidable political and military power overall.

The peasant-core of Assyrians/Syriacs were mostly exterminated or expelled along with the Armenians in WW1.

Yes, the Assyrian Genocide/Seyfo is little known. There the excuse that Turks use about a “legitimate” reaction to separatism, is even less convincing than in the case of Greeks and Armenians.

Btw, to what degree do you believe that the current Syrians are related to the ancient Assyrians?

I’m just wondering if the link/continuity between Assyrians->Syrians is just Syrian nationalist hype, or if the Arabization of Syria really was not very thorough?

Lebanon seems to be becoming an even more deeply entrenched Hezbollah stronghold (with Lebanese Christians having almost completely emigrated due to endless Israel-Hezbollah fighting)

I’ve personally never heard of Hezbollah persecuting Christians in Lebanon or Syria, Hassan Nasrallah has also always come across as quite sane and reasonable. The fighting continues to be ‘endless’ because Israel doesn’t tolerate Hezbollah’s mere existence as a deterrent to Israel dumping its market-surplus (Israel quite purposely ran all local vendors out of business during its long occupation of south Lebanon, it was a key reason why massive resistance eventually developed there), assassinating or bombing within the country at will.

Yes, its a shame what’s happened to Lebanon’s Christians, and the middle-east more generally, as maintaining the most ancient traditions and cultures of the area. But considering they’ve been far better educated and wealthier (on average) than the Muslim majority, a steep demographic decline was probably inevitable. The peasant-core of Assyrians/Syriacs were mostly exterminated or expelled along with the Armenians in WW1.

Busy week, this thread is getting pretty old and long, but here I go.

You and A123 clearly feel very strongly about the situation in the Middle East (Levant mostly), especially Israel-Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Hezbollah, and Iran.

Well, I have relatives and friends from there or still living there (more than Europe actually), so yes, there’s an immediacy effect.

It does seem to be an objective fact that Hezbollah guarantees the rights and security of Christian minorities in Lebanon and Syria, if not out of genuine altruism, than at least out of an interest in having an economic and tax base for its movement.

Historically, Shi’ites (and smaller sects, like Druze) in Lebanon and Syria were treated much worse by the Sunni majority than Christians, who were simply indifferent to them, so yes. Similarly, Christians in Lebanon spent most of them time fighting each other, particularly the major Maronite clans. The Chamoun and Gemayel families in particular really hated each other.

I think its a matter of Christian minorities failing to carve out their own statehood or any sort of sovereignty/autonomy, along with failing to mass meaningful military and economic resources, to the point that even a group like the Kurds has more formidable political and military power overall.

The historic Lebanon area is both smaller and differently shaped than the modern statelet. The French carved the Lebanon out of Syria in such a way as to ensure a Christian plurality, but an extremely precarious one that made it easier to divide and rule.
Coastal Syria has very similar demographics, both it and Lebanon have much more in common with each other than their hinterlands. Initially, only the Maronites (who were always autonomous in their mountain strongholds) supported Lebanese independence, the rest of the country wanted reintegration with Syra.

Kurds are very unfortunate in being split between the border areas of 4 nations, but without prior history of statehood, constantly being used being used as great power pawns, and across a rugged and impoverished area. It’s hard for me to think of an exact equivalent anywhere… but your beloved Albanians are almost a perfect match for this.

Yes, the Assyrian Genocide/Seyfo is little known. There the excuse that Turks use about a “legitimate” reaction to separatism, is even less convincing than in the case of Greeks and Armenians.

The British had an Assyrian Legion during WW1, and there was some limited lobbying for autonomy or statehood, mostly from Christian missionary groups, but predictably they had almost no impact.

Btw, to what degree do you believe that the current Syrians are related to the ancient Assyrians?

This could be taken a number of ways.
Do you mean the ‘Syrians’ of the current state of Syria? In which case, firstly, the ancient Assyrian homeland was located entirely within modern Iraq, where until recently most Assyrians still lived. Many emigrated to Syria after Americans destroyed the country, although then Syria was blown up in turn.
The Syrian desert (extending to Jordan and northern Saudi) is where the Aramaic people originally migrated from, from which modern Syriac languages (including modern ‘Assyrian’ or ‘Chaldean’, Siru and Baz languages {often mutually unintellible}) derive from. Amaraic emphatically was NOT the native language of ancient Assyrians, which was Akkadian, a different Semitic language entirely, but which went extinct during Achaemenid Persian times if not earlier.
Which is to say, those ancient hillside Aramaic-speaking Christian villages (in Syria) have no genetic connection to the ancient Assyrians whatsoever.

Regarding Iraq, the Christian people around south-east Anatolia (around Edessa) and the Ninevah plain have been found to be very genetically distinct, and they do match the area of the old Assyrian homeland, so yes, they can be said to be ‘direct descendents’ of the Assyrians, as far such a concept really exists. Actually, the relative isolation and ease of defense of the Assyrian homeland is key reason for the rise of the Neo-Assyrian Empire (the big one, mentioned in the Bible), because during the Bronze-Age Collapse (1200s BC), Assyria was almost the only ancient polity that wasn’t destroyed or overtaken by foreigners during this period (alongside Egypt, partially).

But language-wise, there’s no connection. Akkadian (divided into Babylonian & Assyrian dialects) went extinct largely due to the Empire-building efforts of the Assyrians themselves, as it was a much easier language to learn. Aramaic started using a semi-phonetic form of cuneiform, and later adopted the Canaanite alphabet, in contrast to Akkadian, which had an extremely complex, mostly logographic writing system, clumsily adapted from Sumerian, which was a completely unrelated agglutinative language (much like how Japan’s uniquely clunky writing system owes a lot to Chinese being totally unrelated, having no inflections, whilst Japanese is full of them, etc).

Due to the policy of mass-deportations the Assyrians practiced in conquered regions, it quickly became the lingua-franca of the region, even into Persian times, where it was only replaced by Greek much later. The British in Iraq tried looking for names like ‘Sennacherib’ or ‘Ashurbanipal’ amongst the modern Assyrians, but without success.
Not suprising really, I doubt a single Serb uses any pre-Christian, pre-Slavic names from the Pelasgian or Illyrian period of the region.

I’m just wondering if the link/continuity between Assyrians->Syrians is just Syrian nationalist hype, or if the Arabization of Syria really was not very thorough?

Arabisation of the region took some time. Aramaic and Coptic were still the majority languages of their respective regions until the High Middle Ages. Near the turn of 20th Century, Lord Cromer in Egypt (in his memoirs and books about governing there) even had the impression about 40% of the village ‘fellah’ were Coptic or had such confused Muslim practices they were practically crypto-coptic. Genetically wise, Arabisation was much, much more thorough in Egypt than in the Levant, probably because of lesser distance, and the Levant being seriously contested (Ioanis Tzimiskes, a Byzantine general of Armenian descent, was even poised to reconquer the area before his untimely death) for much longer.

Also, although I haven’t researched the topic in-depth, I suspect a real turning point for the pre-Arab cultures of the Middle-East were probably the Mongol, Turkish and Timurid invasions. The Mongols absorbed a tincture of Nestorian Christianity, so that might have contributed to Christians being seen as collaborators. The Turks just continued that wave of destruction, but were much more fanatical and intolerant of minorities than the previous Arab dynasties and principalities.

Aramaic also never gave birth to any sort of Ferdowsi figure to revive the rapidily dwindling prestige of the language. As far as I know Coptic and Berber have never produced anything much in the way of literature, although due to sheer distance Berber is still around, it altered Moroccan Arabic (Darija) so much as to make it practically unintelligeable for other Arabic speakers.
You could also argue Phoenician still lives, as it was almost identical to Hebrew.. though I imagine few Phoenicianists would like to acknowledge this. Of course modern Hebrew’s pronounciation differs hugely, losing all the emphatic consonants, long-short vowel distinction, epiglottal h, the uvular stop, the dental fricatives, gemination and getting a Franco-German ‘uvular’ R instead of a tap.
Actually, Yemenite Jews preserved nearly all these features in their liturgical pronunciation, but of course, when they arrived in Israel their accent held extremely low prestige and it mostly vanished, even if linguistic purists and a few Rabbis loved it.
But the grammar is still extremely close, just now with a different word-order and an avoidance of clitics.

There’s a lot to be said and replied to. It’s clear you know not only a lot about the history of the Levant/Middle East, but also linguistics.

I could reply to you in this thread if you want, or we could just take it into the next Open Thread. I should thank you for taking time out of being genuinely busy with real life to reply to my comment. Real life things are always more important than some chatter on Unz Review, especially now that the times are getting more edgy and hectic.

Please don’t post Dennis Prager, even as a joke. Some things are beyond the pale.

Assad requested Iranian assistance to help fight the mercenaries, thugs and salafist terrorists that were destroying Syria you dumbshit. In exactly the same manner, Iran even offered the USA (as did Russia) assistance in for overthrowing the Taliban of Afghanistan, both were rejected.

Anyway, I’m aware that commenter is just a typical jingo-American idiot who isn’t worth replying to, but I does give me opportunity to comment on something.

‘Sociopath’ Khamenei is known within Iran for having little interest in foreign policy. Unlike Khomeini, he delegates international affairs to others, based on considerations of balancing internal factions. Khameini has never been particularly respected within his own clerical establishment, he’s a poor speaker and keeps a relatively low public profile.
Khameini actually owes his position almost entirely due to his close association with Khomeini, he himself acknowledged he doesn’t truly possess leadership qualities in a leaked video a while ago, he won out as the compromise candidate, a person who no one in the elite was very enthusiastic about, but who offended the least people.

Another worthless comment, but again, it gives me an excuse to procrastinate on even more some tedious work.

How many Infidels did Muhammad kill ~600 AD when he invaded Jewish (and Christian) Palestine? Have you forgotten about those dead Palestinians? How convenient for your one sided spiel…

The Jews enthusiastically the Muslims in practically all their initial invasions of Byzantine territory, as they previously did during the Sassanid invasions of the same cities a few decades earlier.

Modern Palestinians are the converted descendants of the peasantry of those same Christians and Jews. They almost certainly have genetically more in common with the biblical peoples of the region than most modern Israelis.

This is immorally identical to Nasrallah butchering Christians around the Beirut port when Hezbollah Munitions Dump #12 exploded.

Blatantly false, are you just making shit up on the spot now or what? Hezbollah is one of the only institutions in that entire cursed country that enjoys cross-denominational support. Fuck off.

Serb Talibans 🙂

https://twitter.com/admirim/status/1427178321104842752

https://twitter.com/ljubofil/status/1429369834865823745

https://twitter.com/ljubofil/status/1428279117477261319

https://twitter.com/SillySrpski/status/1426727902507323392

On a more serious note, I’ve been increasingly becoming cautiously optimistic about Serbia’s future, to the point that its almost not cautiously anymore, but cautious optimism is still appropriate regarding Serbia’s future for now.

Part 1:

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/washington%E2%80%99s-fundamentally-flawed-approach-balkans-187403

Part 2:

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/washington%E2%80%99s-fundamentally-flawed-approach-balkans-187403?page=0%2C1

The most important part of the article in part 2:

For instance, Washington is currently promoting various “solutions” for Bosnia’s chronic malaise that are rejected by half the country’s population, by the country’s neighbors, by members of the UN Security Council, and often even by NATO and EU allies. No U.S. policy so widely rejected can be expected to produce a stable outcome in the country.

Similarly, in Kosovo, Washington’s near-unilateral drive to promote Kosovo independence after 2004 quickly became, as Holbrooke himself would note, a “huge diplomatic train wreck.” Kosovo’s statehood is currently rejected by five members of the EU, two members of the UN Security Council, and almost every other major multiethnic state in the world (e.g., Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria, India, etc.). As a result, Kosovo remains in an international/diplomatic limbo so ambiguous that many of Kosovo’s own politicians see unification with Albania as the only way forward, an eventuality that would only lead to another round of violence in the Western Balkans.

At the root of these failures is a fundamental flaw in Washington’s approach to the Balkans. On the one hand, irresponsible politicians and diplomats want to indulge the maximalist political agendas of their favorite clients in the region. On the other hand, however, given the region’s relative unimportance to genuine U.S. interests, Washington can never justify expending the diplomatic, economic, military or political capital in the region needed to fulfill these agendas, especially not in a world in which there are more important and immediate problems affecting real U.S. interests.

Thus, although Washington frequently offers the promise of decisive support to its Balkan clients, it can never actually change Balkan political and strategic realities enough to do so. As a result, Washington’s Balkan policy over the past three decades has usually exacerbated problems and perpetuated Balkan conflicts (frozen and otherwise) rather than promoted regional stability and progress.

While scenes “out of Kabul” are not about to happen in the near future (next few years) in Pristina, Sarajevo, Podgorica and etc, its clear that no amount of genocide denial bans against Serbs in Bosnia, USA giving 500,000 Pfizer vaccines for Kosovo Albanians, NATO heavy weaponry for Kosovo Albanians, trying to steal the property of the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro, and so on, will be successful in changing the objective political and strategic reality of the situation in the Balkans.

Vucic’s current strategy of sticking towards the territorial status quo temporarily in order to focus on Serbia’s economic growth and trying to revive Serbia’s demographics, culture, society, morality, religion and etc. is smart, but not without serious difficulty. The rumors about Russian S-400’s being secretly present in Serbia and undeclared since 2019 are interesting, although the test of their truth will immediately come out at the moment of any future crisis or war involving Serbia. Also to look out for will be Xi Jinping’s visit to Serbia by this year’s end where he might even deliver Chinese FK-3/KS-1 to Serbia, which will be yet another step in making Serbia practically unbombable by NATO.

At any rate, the USA is still busy with its Afghanistan fiasco, Iran-Israel nukes drama (Biden and Benett to meet before this weeks end), Russia, China, and so on, meaning Serbia will be mostly fine before the end of 2021 at least. In 2022 its possible that Daniel Serwer and Janusz Bugajski may get their way with their lobbying efforts to push for a US military abolition of Republika Srpska, but we’ll have to see. In 2021 USA has already had major prestige blows/geopolitical failures starting in January 6th, then in Ukraine (pressing Ukraine to back down in the face of Russia despite pumping Ukraine up for an assault on the east) and now Afghanistan. Its possible before 2021 even ends, there may be more geopolitical failures may be in with US military withdrawals from Iraq (this one’s already a failure really) and the Gulf States. All this possibly means Serbia may even be fine beyond 2021, but we’ll see.

Naive take.

You’re underestimating the extent to which Serbs are utterly loathed in the Western mainstream (why do you think all the fake trash and scum like Albanians, Bosniaks, Croats, Montenegrins, Slovenians, etc. have been able to get away with everything for so long?) and the much more problematic prospect of Turkey’s return as a top 10 great power. The Turkey issue is a greater problem in the long term actually.

Even though Turkey is currently fighting 3 wars simultaneously in Libya, Syria and against PKK/Kurds, and it has significant economic issues with the value of its currency, it’s still a formidable future opponent as Albania getting TB-2s and Albanian Kosovo buying Turkish military equipment proves.

Once Camp Bondsteel is withdrawn, a future Battle of Kosovo between Serbia (backed by Russia, of course) and Turkey, especially in the air with at least hundreds of drones, fighter jets and SAM/AA weapon systems is really not far-fetched at all …

Either way, however, there is a rather potent pro-Serbian camp in the west that can be used – especially in the anti-globohomo opposition.

Again with the naivety.

The last nominally “pro-Serb” leader in the West was Trump and gave us that weird September 2020 Washington Agreement (not that its completely terrible, imo). If you’re referring to the “far right”, “alt-right”, and so on, those guys are currently irrelevant and are getting completely wrecked in lots of different ways. Those guys can only become relevant when the USA completely crashes and burns as a hegemonic superpower due to a geopolitical crisis (most likely successful Chinese liberation of Taiwan and US military failure to stop it).

They would then have to be willing to fight and go into coups, civil wars or even armed and violent secessions against their governments in Western countries. Majority of the “potent pro-Serbian camp in the west” has until the Jan 6th coup in the USA been completely and utterly unready for any act of public violence and rebellion, let alone civil war, secession and everything else that involves. Even now, they’re mostly disoriented, losing fast, and running out of time with only now the numbers maybe willing to truly be “extreme” or “radical” increasing despite lots of delusions and general confusion, chaos and disarray.

It shouldn’t be necessary to add that at least some Western and Anglo-American “far-right” types acutely hate Serbs because of Western supremacist notions, butthurt about WW1 and muh Habscucks, Roman Catholic supremacism, traditional Germanic-Mitteleuropean animosity, but especially anti-Russian hatred that is easily proxied onto Serbs as “notorious” pro-Russians.

As for Turkey – we’ll see. The Kurd problem will only become bigger as time goes on – the smart Turks are also having breeding issues.

More wishful thinking.

The fantasy that Kurds will somehow overthrow Turkey and dismember it is similar to the anti-Russian copes about Chechnya, or even anti-China fantasies about independent Xinjiang/Uyghurstan/West Turkestan. In the 1980’s and 1990’s successfully independent Kurdistan (from Turkey) and Chechnya actually were quite realistic scenarios, but it’s clear that both have failed and the objective military and other strength of the Turkish and Russian states (and nations/ethnos) has increased considerably, respectively.

Regarding Kurds specifically, sure they have very high birth rates, but that’s not enough for them to truly overthrow the Turkish state or even free themselves from the draconian and assimilationist anti-Kurdish policies by Turkey against them. After all, Whites in South Africa were relatively successful with Apartheid for quite some time, and Turks are far from being in a seriously demographically disadvantageous position vis-à-vis Kurds. Also, many Kurds in Turkey (even Iraq as well) are de-facto collaborators/loyalists of the Turkish state (see: Kurdish village guards against PKK) and the PKK has been losing against Turkey, with the tide seemingly definitively turning against Kurds ever since the 1990’s, especially after Abdullah Ocalan’s capture and imprisonment. In the Kurdish autonomy in Iraq, Turkey is openly hunting down the PKK with enthusiastic help from the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga willing to engage in an inter-Kurdish tribal civil-war to defeat the PKK, as Iraqi Kurds are mostly more hostile to the Iraqi state than Turkey.

As for the Albanians – their animosity to us is relatively recent, historically speaking – only from the past 150 years or so, prior to that they were perhaps the only people in the Balkans that had an amicable relationship with us (see: Dositej’s journeys into Albania).

Lol, why so much naivety?

Citing Dositej travelling finely in Albania in the late 18th century doesn’t change the fact of relentless Albanian terror against Serbs, as voluntary and enthusiastic collaborators of the Ottoman Empire, especially against Serbs in Kosovo-Metohija since the mid-15th century onwards. There’s also the demographic invasion and theft of current-day Albania, which is really ancient Serb land (apart from the Greek majority south), from Serbs since the 13th century at earliest, the tragedy of everything that’s happened to Skadar ever since being an especially infamous example of this.

The narrative of “modern” and “new” Serb-Albanian “hostility” and “conflict” is anti-Serb bullshit since it easily excuses unhinged nonsense like “the evil Servs came to Nis and genocid the inocent Albanians in 1878” (never mind everything Albanians were doing to Serbs until 1878 across the Balkans). Since then it is supposedly the “fault” of Serb nationalism, the Serbian Orthodox Church and other bullshit. In reality, even before the majority of Albanians converted to Islam, Serbs had tense relations with them because of their primitive Thracian tribalism above all (although yes, Islam plays an important part, of course). Catholic Albanians are also hostile to Serbs, while even many Orthodox Albanians are hostile to Serbs because the West has artificially consolidated their nationhood in the last 150 years.

http://www.rastko.rs/kosovo/istorija/kosovo_chronicles/index.html

Read about some of the Albanian terror and crimes against Serbs that has been relatively well recorded (pre-19th century records about Albanian crimes and terror against Serbs has less surviving records and many have vanished unfortunately) only in the past 200 years alone …

We’ll see if this new paradigm of hostility sticks into the future – if we play our cards wisely, it won’t, at the cost of the Albanians basically disappearing due to assimilation.

Vucic’s comment that Serbs and Albanians will be the most numerous nations in the “Western Balkans” in 100 years, and even 200-300 years in the future, is very strange and interesting to say the least.

Maybe not everything is up to Serbs, and the Albanians bear responsibility for their savagery and barbarism, along with all the great powers that relentlessly back them against Serbs?

In order, however, to impose such a system that would allow a state powerful enough to basically dissolve these “problematic” neighbors, we need the Final Solution to the Westerner Problem.

The “Final solution to the Westerner Problem” cannot be “given” by Serbs, since Serbs as a nation do not number more than ~15 million, with Serbia and Republika Srpska as Serb states/entities struggling to merely preserve and improve themselves as is.

The fundamental problem is the completely unhinged and evil elites of the USA Empire which needs to, and basically inevitably will crash and burn (Trump was the last chance for any meaningful structural reform that clearly flopped). The US Empire is obviously the greatest problem since without it Serbs themselves can mostly reshape the Balkans to their liking. In some sense, since 1878 Germany has been a greater long-term enemy of Serbs than the USA, even to this day, due to its unrelenting anti-Serb geopolitics, although it too is currently declining, but not as much as the USA.

This will be accomplished by taking Montenegrin ships, and rerouting them from smuggling cocaine to smuggling the worst quality third worlders we can find. Literally by the millions, and just straight up dumping them in enemy ports.

Sure, just like Lukashenko’s current migration flood against Lithuania and demographic warfare is super successful compared to Erdogan’s against Greece. It should be implicitly clear that the interest of Serbs is not in doing absolutely everything they can to destroy the West (it’s doing a good enough job of that itself with Jews, Muslims and Africans doing much of the work), but to revive and recover Serbs to above 2.1 birthrates, their nation and society from all the disasters of the past ~120 years. Revenge against all the fake trash and scum in “the region” as well, of course.

How about Americans buy guns from Serbian arms companies in preparation for their upcoming and seemingly inevitable civil war?

https://zastavaarmsusa.com/

The real and single most important cause of TFR and low Birth Rates is the behavior of women. In other words, women’s freedom, female empowerment and other garbage. A society will completely breakdown (like the current West) without men functionally controlling the behavior of women in all relevant matters. Proper control of female behavior by men, society, the state, elders, church and etc. is the true solution to the problem of low TFRs and Birth Rates.

Anyway, Vucic’s pro-natalist policy of immediate one-time cash handouts for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd child is a good effort, but not the best policy. The Hungarian TFR/Birth Rate boosting policy of forgiving loans and taxes for families and married couples is superior and has given concrete results, but its still not at 2.1 or above TFR just yet.

The problem with Vucic’s current policy is that Gypsies and Muslims (Albanians and Bosniaks) will take advantage of it most and there’ll be even more undesirable elements in Serbia (already saturated with treacherous 5th columnists and worthless degenerates as is). There are more than enough of these as is, especially considering how a big part of the Albanian problem in Kosovo becoming so bad was because of Serb gibs, and gibs in general by SFR Yugoslavia that encouraged them to breed aggressively (no, its not a “Serb conspiracy theory”, Albanian Mullahs and Hoxha’s deliberately told their tribal flocks and communities to breed aggressively to wage demographic warfare, down to taking over the local hillside or mountainside).

Of course, we need more procreative sex.

Getting rid of shit like Parovi and Zadruge would go a long way. If only …

Well, Kosovo Serbs, especially south of the River Ibar, are in a very similar position to West-Bank Palestinians and Whites/Afrikaners in South Africa (especially rural groups). The latter 2 groups are also known to have very high birth rates, like Kosovo Serbs.

The paradigms are similar because only Blacks, Jews, and specifically Albanian-Moslems are believed to have legitimate rights in “the West”, and are even considered “human”, unlike their sworn enemies, so it’s considered acceptable for them to do almost anything they like to White-Afrikaners, Palestinians and Kosovo Serbs …

Perhaps the high birth rates of the latter 3 groups has to do with being exposed to extreme, constant, daily, relentless, and brutal persecution and terror, making their lives literally unlivable at the daily level, even from moment to moment, without a serious commitment to maintaining traditional, communal, collective, national, racial, ethnic and religious bonds on a literally personal level?

Additionally, men in such communities would naturally control the behavior of their women to a much greater extent than otherwise, as the women would otherwise be raped, kidnapped, murdered and so on, meaning the women will also naturally stick close to their men, birth and raise more children, instead of pursuing careers, choosing “empowering” women’s university education, etc.?

Video Link
I found Dmitry’s confusion about this video that Sher Singh posted quite strange.

It actually makes perfect sense.

The theme of the video is about a Sikh hero who executes his unfaithful woman and her Muslim lover (indicated by clothes) and then goes on to majestically save Buddhists from arbitrary harassment by the Muslims, by well, killing more Muslims. The Sikh hero is then executed by the eternal Anglo (plot based around British rule time), seemingly in collusion with the brown Muslims.

This is actually a very based video.

It shows a healthy and normal attitude by Sikh men to adultery/cheating by unfaithful women and the problem of Muslims. The Sikh-Buddhist friendship and solidarity against Muslims present in the video (also illustrated by AltanBakshi and Sher Singh in some of Karlin’s past Open Threads), that’s clearly deeply rooted is impressive and interesting.

It’s overall just quite a glorious, heroic and authentic music video, although admittedly a bit goofy in terms of some mannerisms as is typical for most Indian/subcontinental movies/music videos (including Bollywood).

Video Link
The theme of Chad Sikh men executing unfaithful wives/girlfriends clearly seems to be quite a common theme in Sikh music videos, and perhaps Sikh culture more broadly (I decided I may as well watch a few other Sikh music videos, but fortunately managed to stop myself from getting carried away and letting them completely pollute my YouTube feed lol).

No, it’s literally a Jatt killing his best friend who goes after his sister in law & then saving Brahmins..

I was tempted to make a similar comment, although much more hostile, but you beat me to it.

It’s amusing to me that Yevardian mocks Serbia for harming itself by “refusing to give up on past grievances.”

Putting aside the fact that Serbia tried exactly that at least twice by hosting Yugoslavia (surprise! it failed), Serbia in 2021 is light years ahead of Armenia in 2021, and I’m sure I’d definitely win if I made a bet that in 2024 Serbia will only leave Armenia behind in the dust even further than it already has.

It’s really bad form to criticize other random nations on factually baseless grounds (the obsession with India is also strange, although admittedly Armenia is superior to India insofar as it doesn’t practice street-shitting), especially considering the current state of his own. Perhaps genius Yevardian would care to explain how Serbia would be better off “giving up on past grievances”, especially considering it’s working out so well for his home country right now lol.

Pashinyan is re-elected and planning somekind of peace process to normalize relations with Turkey.

Lol.

The “Caucuses Pace Initiative” or whatever, by Erdogan and Putin is basically a divvying up of the Caucuses in Russian and Turkish sphere of influence where Georgia and Armenia are the big losers. Russia and Turkey will have at them however they feel like it, with Putin and Erdogan agreeing not to meaningfully interfere with each others’ grinding into submission and abuse of Georgia and Armenia respectively.

Pashinyan said this week that he supports the Turkey-Armenia railway.

Lol.

This was even funnier to me. Looking at Armenoids freak out on Twitter over the fact Pashinyan didn’t inform his population of the terms of the peace treaty he signed (this issue is interesting and worth detailed reflection, but it’s more for Open Thread) was pleasantly amusing.

There seems absolutely overwhelming evidence that the Sarajevo assassination was organized by Serbian Military Intelligence. Even anti-conspiracy Wikipedia treats it as a simple fact.

Folly and Malice: The Habsburg Empire, The Balkans and the Start of World War One, by John Zametica

You would do well to question this all too often repeated false assumption, and discover the truth buried by anti=Serbs through reading this book.

https://twitter.com/admirim/status/1439886037174603778

https://twitter.com/admirim/status/1439898261003902976

https://twitter.com/kos_data/status/1440783200989560834

https://twitter.com/kos_data/status/1440788249149009922

https://twitter.com/SerbiaBased/status/1441061700338323460

Should all be added that this is yet another flagrant Albanian violation of Brussels Agreement with the license plates since ~2012 and that 3 Serbs logging near the “border” have already been beaten up by Albanian “Kosovo police”. Serbs also obviously demonstrating at “border” crossings against this with ~400 protesting for more than a few days.

Have you ever visited Kosovo btw?

No, but a branch (they have a memory of living in Kosovo and Metohija since around 1700’s) of my family was forced out by Albanians in the early 60’s.

A grandma worked in the Pristina hospital where Albanian nurses stabbed needles through the heads of Serb babies (because babies have soft heads so they could get away with it, of course).

Another ancestor was a judge and WW2 veteran who fought for Partisans against Germans and Albanian SS divisions. He sentenced many Shiptar criminals and scum successfully for violent crime and terrorism against Serbs. After Rankovic was removed by Tito and Kardelj, his position became untenable and Albanians shot bullets at his door and window in the night (he was a man that survived Germans shooting a bullet into his lung that stayed there even after WW2). After several nights of that, him and his family had no choice but to pack and leave although they could’ve maybe fought the Albanians, but there were only a few dozen of them compared to hundreds that the Albanian clans and tribes could’ve summoned (they were also in Metohija, technically Kosovo but sort of its own region/sub-category, not far from the border with Albania).

I would hear about the similar outrages about Serbs acting like pigs when Kosovo was often practically under Serbian military occupation during the Yugoslav era

During the SFRY only in the time of first Aleksander Rankovic and then Milosevic was Kosovo in any sense “ruled by Serbs” (so effectively ruled by Albanians from 1945-Rankovioc ascension and ~1960-Milosevic ascension ~1989). “Serbian military occupation” (JNA was also multi-ethnic and Serbs were around ~40% until it was reformed into VJ in April 1992) only existed during Milosevic’s time as a reaction against Albanian separatism, terrorism and subhmanry.

It might be pointless to explain further, but Albanian mass immigration occurred in waves during SFRY with no more than a few hundred thousand in total, but in waves of ~50,000 mostly and ~100,000 once (although Albanians had already been relative majority but combined with high birthrates it was yet another fatal blow).