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    I am a registered Republican. There, I said it. I'm not a particularly ardent one, but I am not ashamed of being a Republican. I have no idea if there are any other Republican bloggers here at Science Blogs, even nominal ones like myself. Additionally, my impression is that aside from David Ng everyone here...
  • primaries. oregon is now operationally on the state level a mildly reliable democratic state. more variance within the republic primary so more opportunity for choice.
    That may be a reason for registering R, but not for identifying as R. Unfortunately, voting causes identification; it’s difficult to separate these things. Also, I imagine that the Republican party in Oregon is much better than the national party.

  • Two articles are out, one by Stephen Oppenheimer, author of The Real Eve, and another profiling some of Bryan Sykes'1 new research. The headlines are eye-catching, "We're nearly all Celts under the skin!" The fine print: Sykes and Oppenheimer tell the tale of the resettlement of northern Europe, and specifically the British Isles, by Iberian...
  • I hate that the peoples of Britain and Ireland are called either Basque, Celts or Germans, as these are all modern entities, and didn’t exist at the time of the putative migrations or invasions. I would prefer terms like Iberian, or Central European…
    These terms may be misleading, but they are not anachronisms.
    OK, the term Basque is probably only two thousand years old, thus post-migration. And it probably never matched how it’s being used here. But the ancient use of Celt and German seem to be what’s being used here.
    The modern term “German” is much narrower than the ancient, but I think most people understand that. I don’t see any problem with Celt at all. While the Irish are probably the only people who get called Celts today, I think the term is understood quite broadly, and people talk about, say, Celtic influence in France.
    But maybe I don’t think they’re so misleading because I’ve already been mislead. In that case, please enlighten me!
    One might object not on grounds of accuracy, but on grounds of precision. Iberian is more precise than Celtic, but Central European is less precise than German.
    You require javascript to post? Disgusting.

  • pconroy,
    Now I’m really confused. Your last comment makes it sound like you endorse the ancient usage and object to the modern usage. But isn’t it the ancient usage in “We’re nearly all Celts under the skin!”? Why did you write ‘invading “Celts”‘?

  • John Wilkins has a good post on religion, I tend to agree with its general thrust though I might quibble with details. Not being gifted with much marginal time right now, a few quick thoughts: 1) I believe that institutional organized religion, e.g., Christianity, Islam, etc., can increase the magnitude of a social vector, but...
  • I believe that institutional organized religion, e.g., Christianity, Islam, etc., can increase the magnitude of a social vector, but has little influence on its direction. For example in relation to slavery religion was a force for inflaming both abolitionist enthusiasm and justifying the holding of other humans in bondage.
    I agree that organized religion is unlikely to affect the direction, but how do you reach the belief that it can affect the magnitude?
    Perhaps it’s just my ignorance of the history of slavery, but I don’t see evidence there. I see people making religious arguments on both sides, but that doesn’t seem like evidence of much at all: I explain it as the form that arguments had to take.
    Maybe I see some connection between radical sects (eg, Quakers) and anti-slavery positions, but I don’t know what to make of it. Sorting is one explanation. Another is that the rare trait of acting on one’s professed beliefs caused both political and religious radicalism.

  • Back when I was taking economics courses, during Alfred Marshall's heyday, economics professors drilled into us that financial markets were efficient, and therefore you should just put your money into a no load mutual fund because even professionals can't beat the market. Being a trusting soul, I believed them and went into marketing research. My...
  • Here’s a common theory about how hedge funds manage to attract a lot of capital: they make very risky investments. Many of them go bankrupt. The ones that survive look very good, and attract more capital. But they were just lucky in the past and probably won’t be in the future.

    Because no one knows how many funds there are out there, it’s really hard to see how well the typical fund does, to see if the above description is correct, but all the evidence is that it’s true.

    Here’s an approximation to the EMH that is true: it’s really hard to tell who’s good and who’s merely lucky.

  • The Inducivist is always digging into the GSS and coming back with interesting stuff. For example, he reports: Percent who believe astrology is very or sort of scientific 43.3% Extremely liberal 32.2% Liberal 31.4% Slightly liberal 25.9% Moderate 25.9% Slightly conservative 26.1% Conservative 25.0% Extremely conservative What's going on here? I think what's showing up...
  • Inspired by John Roth’s comment, I wonder how much is intelligence correlating with simply knowing that scientists are against astrology.

  • There is always a lot of arguing back and forth over income inequality, but expenditure inequality is little discussed, even though it's just the flip side of the standard of living inequality coin. The recent housing bubble created much inequality of lifestyle, much of it almost random in occurrence. Consider two couples who live side...
  • AIDS & breast cancer are the only diseases with disproportionate NIH funding, I’m told.

  • I've gotten tired of Firefox freezing when Newsweek.com (and other sites) loads. Recently Firefox started freezing in gmail when I tried to use the search. But the UI for Safari, Opera and IE are inferior in my opinion. Any recs for something similar to Firefox that doesn't freeze all the time?
  • Maybe I’m reading the wrong things into your comments, but it seems worth pointing out that if you’re willing to try non-firefox, you should be willing to try firefox w/o extensions, or firefox with 4 extensions.

  • There's been a lot of attention paid lately to the vast endowments piled up by the most prestigious universities. Harvard's endowment recently hit $35 billion, which generates so much return each year that tuition is an afterthought in Harvard's budgeting process. One reason is that Harvard graduates tend to be richer, so they can afford...
  • Hedge funds are a lousy investment if you pay 20 and 2, but they give discounts to prestigious colleges so that they can brag about having them as clients. A diversified portfolio of non-fraudulent hedge funds with low management fees is a pretty good investment.

  • Now that Albania is joining NATO, we can rest easy because the crack Albanian army is pledged to come to America's military defense in case we're invaded by, uh, Venezuela. So, let's check in on the latest from our latest ally ...Oddly enough, the news from Tirana sounds a lot like the news from Miami...
  • SAIC is public, NYSE ticker SAI; google finance responded well to SAIC, too.

    But they only went public in late 2006.

  • Clark has a post pointing to the obvious parallels between the practices of the Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints and those of West African immigrants. The "problem" with the FLDS situation is pretty clear; they're WASPs with weird folkways. Of course the reaction to the FLDS is simply a retread of...
  • Joseph Smith’s cult is the most exotic outlier 
     
    Most exotic of the ones that survived, but, say, Oneida seems more exotic to me. And I think it an interesting example because it was tolerated in upstate New York. (I learned the comparison from David Friedman.) 
     
    the nuclear family is an *eternal* unit in Mormonism 
     
    I don’t know what you mean by this (perhaps you just meant “central”), but here’s something I heard that seems to contradict “eternal”: a woman claimed to have been told that she had to get used to polygyny because there would be a shortage of men in heaven; and that she shouldn’t worry about whether her husband would get in, just that she needed a proper marriage herself.

  • Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science asks where asks where all the Smiths have gone:Where did all the Smiths go from 1984 to 1990? I can believe it flatlined after 1990, but it's hard to believe that the count could have changed so much in 6 years.Perhaps it's the difference between the SSA and...
  • I’ll go with the explanation of ZBicyclist from the original thread: typo. A less plausible explanation is that SSA has a radically different methodology than the census. 
     
    But the decline from census 1990 to census 2000 is surprising on its own. The total population of Schmidts is comparable to that decline, so that isn’t the answer. (+33 ranks for Schmidts is about 10% increase)

  • The caption: What does this mean? The authors say it best in the abstract:Nearly 30 years ago, Cavalli-Sforza et al. pioneered the use of principal component analysis (PCA) in population genetics and used PCA to produce maps summarizing human genetic variation across continental regions. They interpreted gradient and wave patterns in these maps as signatures...
  • John Emerson, 
    migration is 1-way; diffusion is 2-way. That’s what I would say is the difference. I’m not sure how I’d detect that from PCA.  
     
    Also, migration is faster than diffusion. That should show up. An east-west migration would make the east-west genetic difference smaller, hence decreasing the weight of that component, making the north-south gradient show up first. I bet a lot of people would give the exact opposite interpretation.

  • The post below where I show that belief in the literal truth of the Biblical tends to correlate well with IQ scores from the General Social Survey on a denominational scale is getting a lot of response; enough of it is of low quality that I'll close the comment thread soon enough. As I observed...
  • Razib,
    you seem to predict that if we isolated southerners, the correlation would go up. Is the data available to do that? (IQ, it seems, is not, but maybe education?) The diversity index you give might accomplish the same thing, but how to display it?

  • Will Wilkinson and Jon Haidt just did a bloggingheads.tv. I've blogged Haidt's ideas before (Chris is skeptical). During this bloggingheads.tv interview Haidt lays out the difference between college age liberals and other societies with a scenario where a beloved dog dies and the family decides to consume the creature. Most non-college age non-liberals think that...
  • I think Haidt’s categories are useful, although I’m not sure about the liberal vs conservative claims. Even if disgust is merely something that liberals know shouldn’t have to do with morality, that’s an important difference.
    (I’ve read an article & not watched the podcast.)
    Haidt has a Ph.D. and I’m sure he can design good experiments
    You have way too much faith in scientists.

  • A commenter here once pointed out that to be a successful journalist, it helps to be very curious but not very smart. From the Wall Street Journal:The Great Women of China By MEI FONG and LORETTA CHAO BEIJING -- Here is China's secret formula for topping the Olympic medal tally: two X chromosomes. WSJ's Mei...
  • why communists? why not other authoritarians?

  • Genetic and Environmental Effects on Same-sex Sexual Behavior: A Population Study of Twins in Sweden: ScienceDaily has an important caveat: ...The individual's unique environment include
  • That quote from ScienceDaily isn’t quite correct. In a twin study, pregnancy is a shared environment. In particular, this study seems like a blow to the pre-natal infection theory.

  • Most of you who read this weblog know that one of my primary preoccupations is how to invest my marginal time in terms of reading to optimize whatever it is I want to optimize (i.e., to "know stuff"). Life is short. So I recently began reflecting on the choices I make in terms of reading...
  • I think the key is whether the field builds on itself. The Elements are true, but you can find much the same material in high school. Maybe you would have been better off reading Euclid instead, but it’s too late for that. Sociology is faddish, but that means that whatever good it does is thrown out, so there may be much in old books that is not available in new books. Unfortunately, much bad stuff is in the old books as well; it’s probably not worth doing the filtering yourself.
    There’s something to be said for the history of ideas. But not, I think, so much for primary sources. It’s nice to know that Archimedes invented the delta-epsilon proof and that calculus existed for 200 years without it, but now you know it. The less you trust people to understand the field and write surveys and histories, the more you have to read it yourself.
    But if I want to understand the world, knowing the leading thought at various times may not be so important as knowing the common thought. Euclid isn’t going to tell me what percentage of the population could count. Primary sources in philosophy and social science will do a better job of indicating the common (or elite-but-not-specialist) thought, if only implicitly. Moreover, I think there has been a lot more change in common thought on philosophical and social issues than math and science. And it has a lot more impact on people’s actions. Plato seems to be a step backward from where I stand, but it’s a step in a direction I never would have considered, and a step forward from a truly bizarre place.

  • Chad has a post up The Innumeracy of Intellectuals, where he goes on a rant against humanities academics and their blithe complacency in relation to their ignorance of science & mathematics. Two points.... 1) One of the major issues with humanistically oriented intellectuals, I believe, is a lack of anthropological fluency with the culture of...
  • agnostic:
    Population growth surely wasn’t: exponential starting around 1800, pretty static before then. Etc.
    cite?
    that’s certainly not the conventional wisdom, unless “pretty static” just means a smaller exponent. Also, I thought that there was a lot of population growth in Europe due to new world food before 1800, but maybe that didn’t affect world population so much.

  • The source seems to be Angus Maddison. He has a spreadsheet at his home page.
    http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/Historical_Statistics/horizontal-file_03-2007.xls
    He has western European population doubling from 1000 to 1500 again to mid 18th century.

  • Some results from the GSS on what people perceive the ideal number of children is based on social variables. Additionally, the realized number of children the respondent has. I limited the sample to whites who were 40 or older (there are people who have children past 40, but I assume that most of the discrepancy,...
  • A visualization of statistics question: are the income graphs the right thing to display, or should they be smoothed (or bucketed) first?
    I’m sure that a smoothed version would be more pleasant, but would it make extracting information easier? and would it be worth the data thrown out?

  • Dienekes has a long post on a new paper, Correlation between Genetic and Geographic Structure in Europe. I took the figure and decided to just label the geographic provenance of the primary clusters which emerged when one plotted them along the two largest dimensions of variation (Y axis is 1st component, X is 2nd component)...
  • georgesdelatour, 
    there’s a key on the right side of the graph. (I missed it, too.)

  • Here's Andrew Gelman's graph showing that there wasn't much regional change between 2004 and 2008 at the state level, just a national shift to the left (up in this graph). (I'm not sure what % of precincts reporting he's using, but I doubt if anything will change much).The states below the 45 degree line swung...
  • I’d like to see a plot from 1952/1956. Sure, I believe the qualitative claim, but how much less correlation was there?

  • I really don't have much to add that's original, I've long tired of the "definition wars." Early this year Steve wrote a column rebutting some criticisms that Malik makes of his definition of race in Strange Fruit: Why Both Sides are Wrong in the Race Debate. The book is out in the United States now...I'm...
  • John Emerson, 
    I see two complaints that you seem to make about the Polish race, which you seem to alternate between. It would be better if they were cleanly separated, particularly if you are really only making one of them. 
     
    The first is that one shouldn’t use the word “race” for such fine gradations as Poles. I am certain that the common word used to have little connotation of size, but I am uncertain of the current usage. It may be that it shifted to very coarse divisions, particularly as they became important in America–perhaps this is even a regional usage. But it also seems possible that this history is propaganda intended to move the current definition. It is certainly an advantage of not using the word that one completely avoids wondering about its common usage. 
     
    The second complaint is that the Poles are an artificial group, not a reasonable population to consider. So then I would say that the common usage is simply an error, on its own terms.

  • I ran into an interesting comment on the net the other day.. "for some, it is hard to determine what productive and ethical use society can make of genetic knowledge that certain individuals are predisposed to higher than average intelligence" Perhaps others can think of some productive and ethical uses. Any suggestions? Some people may...
  • Can you define “ethical” to match society’s current use of IQ tests? Having done so, are you left with any ethical use of genetics?

  • There are now some articles which are detailing the other Ponzi schemes which are coming out in the wake of l'affaire Madoff. One thing that is notable: the next biggest scam is an order of magnitude less significant. That is, while Bernie Madoff's scam was on the scale of billions, the next ones in the...
  • My favorite Ponzi scheme is ant-farming.

  • Just watched the film Today's Man, which is about an individual, Nicky Gottlieb, with Asperger Syndrome. Near the end of the film he attends a meeting with others who are not "neurotypicals." Gottlieb has some weird ticks throughout the film which shows quite clearly that he's not "all there" (or, more precisely, no one else...
  • John Emerson (or anyone else), 
    what are the good features exaggerated in the three disorders you named? 
     
    (The one that springs to mind is that mania is too much hypomania, which seems to be pretty much purely good. But classic bipolar is not just mania, but also depression.)

  • I ran into an interesting comment on the net the other day.. "for some, it is hard to determine what productive and ethical use society can make of genetic knowledge that certain individuals are predisposed to higher than average intelligence" Perhaps others can think of some productive and ethical uses. Any suggestions? Some people may...
  • I would say that the difference between pathogens and carnivores is the relative number of generations of the predator and prey. Humans live similar times to megafauna, so African megafauna was able to keep up the arms race. But pathogens can reach virulence in a single host generation. 
     
    But then it occurred to me that long incubation period, which may be necessary to prevent a virulent disease (of animals) from being only locally virulent, means a long life-cycle and thus a long effective generation time.

  • If you read my previous post on CEO salary cap, check out Jim Manzi's thoughts. Also, Felix Salmon and Megan Barnett debate the pay cap (he is in favor, she against). After Salmon presented his case I'm inclined to be less charitable to Barnett than I was before. But this post by Bob Sutton seals...
  • Razib,
    the study cited in the Slate piece is obsolete. The paper below reproduces that affect, but then sees how IQ affects the regression. Adult height regains much of its big effect on earnings, but adolescent height seems to act largely through IQ (that is, earlier growth spurts correlate with IQ).
    STATURE AND STATUS: HEIGHT, ABILITY, AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES
    Anne Case, Christina Paxson
    http://www.nber.org/papers/w12466

  • ++Addition++An error in the original posting has been updated in response to the astuteness of commenter DK, who pointed out that the figures for male median income were far too high to be plausible. They have been corrected. Also, please see Blode's comment challenging the assertion that thin women, as measured by GSS interviewers, are...
  • But what is there to do about it?

    Ron didn't say "they're lying, so disregard all sex data," but proposed an alternative theory of who would benefit from which lies. It probably has testable consequences, but it sounds overfitted. I think it would be useful to find someone who has not read the post to guess which way the lies would go.

  • If you read my previous post on CEO salary cap, check out Jim Manzi's thoughts. Also, Felix Salmon and Megan Barnett debate the pay cap (he is in favor, she against). After Salmon presented his case I'm inclined to be less charitable to Barnett than I was before. But this post by Bob Sutton seals...
  • Yeah, that sounds almost opposite.
    Causally, the article you point seems easier to explain than the one I point to. But I don’t see that the timing of the height growth spurt should have anything to do with the timing of the brain growth spurt, especially since the brain growth spurt is before puberty. Since the timing is different, it would take a longitudinal study to compare them.

  • Thanks to reader Tino, who found this HUD document, here are the mortgage default rates by ethnicity for three vintages of 1990s FHA-insured mortgages. The sample size is 240,901 loans.The Federal Housing Administration insures smaller-sized mortgages of low and moderate income folks upon appraisal, so this is roughly an apples to apples comparison of fairly...
  • What strikes me about those charts is that time widens the racial gaps. That is: whites only default quickly; hispanics have a constant default rate; and blacks are somewhere in between. The black pattern is what I’d expect; the other two seem pretty weird.

  • From my new VDARE.com column:You’ve heard over and over about how the 1977 Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) could
  • But how much money actually got spent? These are all 10 year pledges, right? But even the 1998 pledges, did those really happen?

    Also, there’s the causality issue. Maybe the banks were awash in capital, knew that they had to make bad loans, and figured that they they might as well get political credit for it, too.

  • A Splendid Exchange: How Trade Shaped the World is a work of economic history focused on trade. It suffers like many in this genre due to a sloppy grasp of the historical record (the numerous trivial errors are a good sign of a very thin grasp of secondary sources).* But when it comes to the...
  • bioIgnoramus, 
    Andy Razaf’s mother was African-American, ie, probably West African.

  • Tyler Cowen points me to this case against YouTube. In short, the user generated crap which dominates the system costs money to host and serve, but doesn't offer much of a return in monetization. But it seems to me that this is just the problem of too much crap on a lot of these "social...
  • One man’s crap… There’s a long tail problem: if they could monetize the niche stuff, they’d win on volume. The problem is that they have less information about the niche stuff, so it’s difficult to figure out what to advertise.

  • What If Vitamin D Deficiency Is a Cause of Autism?: I started to get interested in Vitamin D a few years back for personal and intellectual reasons. I had deficiency myself despite the fact that I tried to make a proactive effort to get a lo
  • Finally, I also wonder if the role of novel infection might be at work among the Somalis.
    Sorry if I’m slow, but it seems worth spelling out that this is compatible with the vitamin D hypothesis, since D is relevant to the immune system.

  • Andrew Gelman has a post up titled Difficulties in trying to understand the views of others, responding to a Robin Hanson taxonomy outline the motivations of liberals, conservatives and libertarians. Gelman is skeptical of Hanson's glosses of each group. The human ability to engage in Meta-Representation is one of the hallmarks of our species. We...
  • michael vassar:
    Frankly, people can learn to understand themselves and to deconstruct others much better than most do.
    razib:
    yes. one way to do it is to socialize widely with those who you have deep ostensible differences with. the problem with this is that there is psychic discomfort in having your presuppositions contradicted.
    I’m skeptical that this is that useful. I think it will make you sympathetic and stop attributing their positions to evil, but beyond that I doubt it will help accuracy. (note that mv is also talking about understanding yourself)

  • On another weblog someone alluded to the sex difference in religious belief among black Americans, to the effect that it was more pronounced than among whites. Is this true? I decided to check the GSS, and found something interesting, though not too surprising. It's a robust cross-cultural finding that women are more religious than men,...
  • I’m surprised you made the first graph, treating the difference as a proportion, since the absolute number is so shockingly constant.

  • Over at Why Evolution Is True Greg Mayer wonders: The the fact that the % of Americans who aver "No Religion" has increased greatly in the past 20 years is a surprise to many people, because naturally it isn't as if Richard Dawkins is organizing revivals. Like the decline in crime in the 1990s this...
  • Greg Mayer’s hypothesis seems psychologically backwards to me. If you substituted “nationalism” for “religion” no one believe it for a second.

  • At the end of an otherwise good reflection in the WSJ on where Google can go from here, we read the following:Stan Liebowitz and Stephen Margolis debunked this at least 10 years ago in their book Winners, Losers, and Microsoft, and probably earlier, though I can't recall which journal article it originally appeared in. Scroll...
  • The WSJ does not make the false claim.  
     
    To say that Word won only because of monopology and bundling is false, but to say that they played a role is not. At least it is not immediately contradicted by any of the data you link to. I don’t find that data terribly convincing, either. The magazine ratings, user ratings, and market share don’t seem terribly related.

  • Recently at my personal blog I've been focusing on the idiocy of Web 2.0's central strategy for growth, namely creating online networks or communities where costly participation is given away for free. (The profitable online papers charge, YouTube and Facebook still not profitable, and a more general round-up of the second dot-com bust.) The hope...
  • Yes, the 31 page report is the most detailed. Here are all its details: 
     
    “To preserve traffic from search engines, make the headline and the first paragraph of  
    every story free.  
     
    Charge a micropayment of 10 cents to read a full article.  
     
    Charge 40 cents for a daily pass and $7.50 for a monthly pass.  
     
    Establish an annual pass for $55 with print subscribers getting the first year of full  
    online access free, but possibly moving to 50 percent of the online price.  
     
    Establish a 5-cent charge, also known as a pass-along fee, to forward an article unless  
    the recipient already has a subscription.” 
     
    It also talks about things other than Jornalism Online, like the idea that newspapers are better lobbyists than Google and should extort money through threat of anti-trust litigation.

  • John Emerson: Probably local newspapers will become even more shopper-like than they are already 
     
    I don’t know what you mean, whether I’m agreeing or disagreeing, but that 31 page pdf, which was mainly not about this particular plan, says that there are several local newspapers that charge for access. One possibility is that they have a monopoly on local news, that lots of papers could charge for content. But national and international news may be more competitive and have to stay open. Still, if people start buying access to their local paper, that may bridge the penny gap.

  • Carl Zimmer is rather mild-mannered, but has expressed rather strong sentiments about what recently happened on bloggingheads.tv. Sean Carroll, not surprisingly, has stronger opinions. But they're now both proactively dissociating themselves from bloggingheads.tv. The McWhorter & Behe discussion is now back online. The issue is really simple. John McWhorter played up Michael Behe's ideas as...
  • the reality is rather simple, scientists dislike being associated with creationists in contexts where they seem to be giving creationists credibility.
    So why aren’t they calling for a boycott of Lehigh U? say, a boycott of physics conferences held there? Yes, what scientists dislike is simple, but how they balance that is not.

  • as noted in sean carroll’s post
    That’s true. I liked Chad Orzel’s post but it made me forget Carroll’s similar paragraph. That seemed like a reasonable way to frame the question (although I disagree with the answer to that question). I don’t like the paragraph about laundering money, but I agree with the conclusion, so maybe I just don’t understand the metaphor. But Zimmer’s post reads to me as a sulk.
    J.J.E.,
    I had read the disclaimer. But the physics department has no disclaimer, which is why I complained about physics conferences. I have a lot more sympathy with Zimmer than with Carroll. (despite my opinions on their posts)
    Also, the Lehigh disclaimer really isn’t much. It hardly seems more than Wright’s disclaimer that C&Z don’t make much of.

  • His two primary reasons: I can understand why some would want to distance themselves from BHTV after the recent events. But there's no reason that everyone of similar mind needs to follow the same strategy. The flight of Zimmer, Carroll, etc., from BHTV serves as a warning shot, but it still has the potential to...
  • Is there a reason for anyone of a similar mind to follow Zimmer, etc?
    I can see the point of a boycott, but the first people didn’t call for one, so it’s not going to happen. There is some value in the publicity of these “warning shots,” but there is rapidly diminishing publicity to more people doing it. In particular, PZ Myers’s quiet exit looks worthless to me.

  • Toward the end of this episode of EconTalk, Nassim Taleb (Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan) talks about religion and the history of medicine. He notes that one of the benefits of adhering to religious practices was that you probably avoided going to a doctor when you were in trouble -- you prayed to a...
  • razib: 
    i regularly see the 19th or early 20th century as the “turn around” date for the efficacy of the medical profession in increasing, rather than decreasing, lifespan. anyone have a citation from where this comes from? 
     
    This is not the hard data you probably want, but Lewis Thomas’s memoir “The Youngest Science: notes of a medicine-watcher” begins with the transition in the early 20th century. He talks about how his physician father knew that there was practically nothing positive he could do to help the patients, but that his colleagues did intervene, to negative net result. here is a summary of these first few chapters (with titles like “1911 Medicine,””1933 Medicine,” “1937 Internship”) 
     
    I second Fabian and Caledonian, among others on this thread. Vassar has proposed almost exactly the opposite theory, that people are evolved to respect priests and that doctors are priests. The evolved part is awfully specific; I can accept the second part while rejecting the first. There are some great parallels, like compliance: people acknowledge the authority of priests, but don’t actually obey all that much.

  • My post below elicited a lot of response. One thing to point out though, which I want to emphasize: a higher proportion of smart people go to college now than in the past. How can this be? First, let's review the change in distributions of intelligence of those with college degrees (or higher) and those...
  • In the previous post you labeled one group “no college” but now you label it “no bachelors.” Are these intended to be the same group? The new label makes it clearly exhaustive, but I had interpreted “no college” to mean not even starting community college.
    The not started college group is down to 50%, so if the complementary “some college” group has higher IQ, neither group can be average. Whereas bachelors are small enough that their IQ can move around while the complement stays fixed at average.

  • Believe it or not, tigers are not the largest big cat. Ligers are (you might remember ligers from Napoleon Dynamite). Why? It has to do with the weirdness that occurs when you hybridize across two lineages which have been distinctive for millions of years, but not so long so as not to be able to...
  • Does the imprinting information really give us enough information to deduce things about the reproductive habits, or are these just-so stories? A few years ago, Vassar tried to take this size differential and the social structures and conclude the sexes of the parents, but got it backwards. Tigers have more variety of mates; lions may have a few mates in a pride, but they’ll be the same the next year. Maybe competition within a litter trumps competition between litters, but it’s not obvious.

  • Since Canadians seem to have an obsession with American health care policy (a nation of Ezra Kleins?), I thought I would pass along this weird Intrade screenshot: OK, I assume my liberal readers have cleaned themselves up after seeing that screenshot. I check Intrade as part of my "morning reads" and I really don 't...
  • Generally, the bid/ask interval is the relevant statistic, not the last price. It is visible in your screenshot, 44-80. It is bizarre that the last price is not between them. Such a wide range suggests an illiquid market and little information, but it was just the temporary effect of the one purchase.

  • It has been known for years that interracial marriages have higher than expected divorce rates. But I did not know that the rates varied quite a bit contingent on the combination of race & sex. Gori Girl* has a post up, Interracial Divorce in the U.S. - Statistics and How Much They Matter: - Marriages...
  • The dating preferences don’t seem relevant to me to the divorce rates. Yes, a lot of white women don’t want to date other races. More don’t want to marry other races. But why should this tell us about the ones who actually do? Maybe Omar’s comment explains why interracial dating doesn’t lead to marriage, but by the time people do marry, shouldn’t they be past that hurdle?

  • The strange case of the twins of Kodinji:
  • Dizygotic twinning is heritable and varies widely. Some people believe that monozygotic twinning is heritable, though the conventional wisdom is that it is not. One theory is that it can be triggered by the father, that there are inherited properties of the sperm that cause splitting. (while it is hard for the father to induce multiple ovulation)
    It is not so rare to confuse MZ and DZ twins (really!), so it is plausible that we miss variation in MZ twinning when DZ is much more common, as is true in most populations. But if there were a population where MZ were more common, people would notice the sex ratio.

  • Generous Leaders and Selfish Underdogs: Pro-Sociality in Despotic Macaques: Probably would be nicer to have more dots on the scatterplot...but that would involve tracking more troops. Someone needs to pay for more ethologists!
  • TGGP,

    I guess 20 monkeys were tested with non-kin (solid circles) and 10 of them were also tested with kin (open circles), but that’s not quite what the text of the article says.

  • We have some data that in fact older generations were more sexually promiscuous, contrary to the moral panic perpetually ascendant. As a follow up to my previous post, there is some scholarship which suggests that misattributed paternity rates have been declining. Recent decline in nonpaternity rates: a cross-temporal meta-analysis: Nonpaternity (i.e., discrepant biological versus social...
  • It’s clear what conclusion to draw from Sykes, but what does Genghis tell us? All we know is that his Y chromosome is widespread, not that it’s correlated with a name, right? So it could be that it spread via cuckoldry.

  • Ancient Egyptian farmer ploughing a field Recently several weblogs have pointed to a new working paper on the role of plough-based agriculture vs. hoe-based agriculture in shaping cultural expectations about male and female labor force participation specifically, and the differentiation of gender roles more generally. My first reaction was: "doesn't everyone know this already?" I...
  • Some scholars hypothesize that interpersonal violence was more common, not less, among hunter-gatherers, because there was no central authority regulating conflicts.

    Does your invocation of theory mean that you are not impressed by attempts to measure? Perhaps it is a topic for another post, but I would like to know your assessment of the attempts to measure violence.

    I’m not convinced by this theoretical argument because, while a central authority would want to suppress local violence, it might want war.

  • A few people have asked about me the assertion I made about the decline in violence over time. This doesn't seem to pass the smell test for many moderns. In particular, I think the objection about the magnitude of modern wars is a valid one...but the main issue to remember is to focus on the...
  • I mentioned war in my comment, but I’m more concerned about interpersonal violence among hunter-gatherers. I’ve heard of many ways to measure this, with wildly different results. But maybe one should start with pushing measures of agricultural homicide back earlier. Do we know murder rates in Rome?

  • For Those About to Rock…You’ll Need These. Chris Mooney has a round-up of 'Rock Stars of Science'. I've been meaning to talk about this, as Chris gave me a heads up, but I've been kind of busy with other things. But better late than never. I have some of the same concerns as the nay-sayers....
  • Here is the paper on web history sniffing, including the list of sites.

  • Anthropology a Science? Statement Deepens a Rift: Aspiring to Know like a white man If you don't know about the controversy surrounding Chagnon and the Yanomamo, see
  • In what sense is Chagnon “science-oriented”? He looks to me to be doing the same thing as other cultural anthropologists, just reaching different conclusions.

    It seems to me that in anthropology “science” is a political label and it would be good to get rid of it for that reason. I’m more concerned about statements like “Chagnon’s friends are scientists, so he’s right” or “Chagnon is right, so he’s a scientist” than this. In other words: “the scientists started it.”

  • Denisovans did not have red hair. John Hawks pokes around the Denisovan genome. Interesting that he notes that the coverage of the Denisovans is very good in comparison to the Neandertals. I Won’t Hug This File — I Won’t Even Call It My Friend. A weird screed against the internet and free content, posted on...
  • That Wired article had too memorable a headline. A cursory search suggests that the Japanese bought 35 million phones last year, including 6 million smartphones, including 4 million iphones.

  • Several people have inquired as to my opinion on the OKCupid post The Mathematics Of Beauty. I've blogged data from this dating website in the past, in particular, the differential race consciousness of women vs. men. But that material is a different class than the current post. As I have noted before, there is a...
  • How good is the evidence for symmetry? For example, composite photos fail to distinguish between the symmetry hypothesis and the smooth skin hypothesis.

  • Walter Russell Mead has a fascinating blog post up, The Birth of the Blues. In it, he traces the roots of modern American "Blue-state" liberalism back to the Puritans, the Yankees of New England. This is a plausible argument. I believe that many social-political coalitions and configurations in contemporary America do have deep historical roots....
  • I was confused by the statement about Calhoun. I read it as referring to brand-name Unitarianism, the church of his president, JQA; which would make it false, since he attended his wife’s lax Episcopal church. It would have been clearer to me to repeat the word “Deism” of the previous sentence.

  • For 20 years, you've always heard about how horrible Japan's economy is. In 2008 you heard over and over about how the worst thing that could happen to America is a Japanese-style Lost Decade. It always sounds like Godzilla, or maybe the B-29s, have come back. And yet, Japan doesn't actually seem to be a post-apocalyptic...
  • Yes, the Japanese are better dressed and generally spend more now than in 1990; and they are a lot richer in 1990 than in 1980. But there are a lot of unemployed youth who seem to a lot less happy than the unemployed youth in Europe.

    But, yes, news coverage is biased by financiers.

  • One of the most annoying aspects of the post-Westphalian era is the conceit that all national administrative units are equivalent in some deep fundamental sense. So, for example, you get comparisons of per capita income for nations, and Luxembourg and Lichtenstein inevitably show up at the top of the rankings. Everyone knows that this is...
  • Paul, this is a final b, while Berg is an initial b. I believe this pronunciation is standard German, while Bavarians probably pronounce it Hapspurg.

    As I understand it, terminal b in standard German sounds like p to English speakers and probably to speakers Romance languages. Often this applies to a b at the end of a syllable as well, as in Habsburg. The sound is neither voiced nor aspirated, so it is a third sound, distinct from initial p and b; Germans can distinguish it from terminal p, though I can’t. Here is wikipedia, which doesn’t seem to agree with either of us.

  • A few years ago a story came out about a town populated by Germans in Brazil which exhibited a tendency toward twinning. The combination of Germans, Brazil, and twins, naturally meant that Josef Mengele came into the picture. A more prosaic explanation for the twinning, favored by locals, was that it was something environmental, like...
  • There are lots of populations with high twinning rates. It seems suspicious to me that a gene for twinning should be first discovered in this photogenic population.

  • In my experience most scientists are not too clear on the details of intelligence testing, perhaps because the whole area is somewhat in ill repute (except when you want to brag about your own SAT/GRE score!). This despite the fact that the profession of science is skewed toward the right end of the intelligence bell...
  • What is the situation with height?

    I thought it was the same as with IQ: hundreds of unreplicated claims from GWAS. Hsu mentions failure of IQ replication, so he seems to be asserting height replication. Is it true?

  • hbd chick has made an interesting response to my review in The American Conservative of Francis Fukuyama's The Origins of Political Order. First, another excerpt from my review:Indeed, it is “not obvious,” but Fukuyama’s challenge is hardly unanswerable. In arranged-marr
  • For anyone who is, like me, suspicious of that wikipedia quote, here is the text of the Fourth Lateran council of 1215. Item 50 bans 3rd cousin marriage. Item 51 indicates that this reduced the prohibition by 3 (canon) degrees, so 6th cousins really were banned before.

  • On occasion I browse through books on Amazon with an eye for really good negative reviews. The other day I stumbled upon a really strange positive review of the awful fantasist David Bilsborough. It was confusing to me to see 4 out of 5 stars for this author, but the "review" was even more perplexing:...
  • Evidence for Domino’s theory is this comment at the skeptical post razib linked, claiming that the #6 reviewer (in 2007) was selling books on amazon, labeled as received from the distributor and never read.

  • Actually, that #6 reviewer was reviewing technical books, much more valuable (though illiquid) things to resell than HK’s. Domino’s suggestion of $125k is spread out over 5 years. Since the books are new, they’re probably going for more than $5, though.

  • At The Intersection Chris Mooney points to new research which reiterates that 1) political ideology exhibits some heritability, 2) and, there are associations between political ideology and specific genes. I'll set #2 aside for now, because this is a classic "more research needed" area at this point. But as I mentioned in the comments the...
  • People obviously get their politics from their parents. That seems to me much more actionable than nuance about nature vs nurture, but people ignore it.

    Older people are more conservative than younger people, but they rarely try to impart their wisdom to the youth, rather than just saying “Someday you’ll agree with me.” Have they learned something or have their personalities just changed?

  • Update: Stephen Dubner emailed me, and pointed me to this much longer segment which has a lot of Bryan Caplan. So it seems like the omission that I perceived was more of an issue with the production and editing process and constraints of the Marketplace segment than anything else. End Update I play a lot...
  • ohwilleke, yes, but aren’t Philippinos an exception? aren’t current immigrants pretty average? Or maybe they are temporary workers who shouldn’t be counted as immigrants?

  • From the Washington Post:Other recent
  • Does anyone have a citation for those 3% and 4% numbers? At least that's an objective question.

  • Steve,

    thanks for that clarification on the 3 and 4%. These numbers aren't important for your point, but I'm curious what they are.

    Gabaix and Landier claim that from 1980 to 2003, S&P500 market cap and ceo compensation both increased 6 fold. Assuming constant P/E, this corresponds to constant percent of profits. They say that it is well known that executive pay grows like the cube root of the firm size, at any fixed point in time, but that the constant varies with time and is such that pay is proportional to the largest firm size.

    Between 1993 and 2003, I found contradictory claims. This time series the percent of profits was the same (2.5%) at the end points, but much higher (4%) in 1999. Whereas, this paper on a larger set of firms claims that the top five executives moved from 5% to 10%. I thought it also claimed that CEO pay alone increased alone, but I can't find that anymore.

  • The standard survey on executive compensation is by Kevin J Murphy in 1999 (not to be confused by Kevin M Murphy). It has a graph showing both the time series for executive compensation and for the number of papers on the subject.

  • I have seen the claim that profits are back to pre-war levels. One change that may be of interest is that pre-war companies didn't have employee-executives. They were smaller and were run by their owners. So executives may well have retained a much larger percentage of profits, but not as salary.

  • John Winthrop, ~1600. Mitt Romney, 2008 - image credit, Jessica Rinaldi Recently Megan Mcardle had a post up where she expressed curiosity as to why "futurists" circa 1900 had a tendency not to imagine revolutions in clothing style which might have been anticipated to occur over the next few decades. You also see see this...
  • I may be missing the point, but it seems worth pointing out that the Roundhead picture in wikipedia is from the 19th century and thus, perhaps, not reliable. The Cavalier pictures are a mix of contemporary and 19C.

  • During my adult lifetime, there has been some improvement in how potential jurors are treated by court systems. When I was first summoned for jury duty by Cook County in the 1980s, potential jurors were treated like cannon fodder. They're basically free to the court system, so their time was wasted by stupid inefficiencies. By...
  • Sounds like a definite improvement, but a drawback is that people would not take as seriously faces on a screen as they would people in the same room.

    This claim would be easy to study in mock trials. Also, sometimes victims, mainly of sex crimes, are allowed to testify in absentia to avoid confronting the accused. I wonder if this has been studied?

    Roman Polanski managed to win a libel suit in England without setting foot there. I don't know if he testified, though.

  • My old college newspaper editor, David R. Dow, op-edizes in the New York Times:Yes, but who perpetrates more homicides? And who gets executed more often? Those facts are the kind of news that's not fit to print, evidently.The simplified model of how it really works is that white-dominated jurisdictions tend to be more conservative and...
  • Complaining about his lack of numbers is a bit unfair. He does mention the effect of both victim and perp on execution.

  • Last week, I pointed out how Microsoft had cut their tax rate on corporate profits from 25% in FY 2010 to 7% in 2011 by claiming to make most of its profits in places like Puerto Rico. A reader writes:I would be sympathetic to an investment firm that actually does its work on an island...
  • Geographical concentration of finance is just like geographical concentration of any other business. People who have money they want managed all go to NYC, so money managers have to have an office there. This includes the above-mentioned Jim Simons, whose quants are all out on Long Island.

    Also, bankers get raises by threatening to quit. The threat is a lot more credible in NYC than in Boston.

  • Are Empowered Women Driving Reduced Tolerance Of Extramarital Affairs?: He's talking about a chart which shows decline in tolerance of extramarital sex by education: I just replicated but broke it down by male and female:
  • Whenever I see a time series involving college graduates, I guess that they as their population expands, they become more like the general population. That turns out not to be the explanation – the general population shifted to “always wrong.” In general, it seems to me worth graphing the aggregate data whenever one graphs demographic breakdowns, especially if the demographics are changing.

  • A few weeks ago I said that I would post an update on how A Dance with Dragons was doing on Amazon. Here it is: A 5 star rating is good. The sample size is not too large in relation to previous books, but I think we can conclude that this is more in keeping...
  • Razib, and what did you think of this approach to evaluating a new book by reviews? If I recall correctly, your plan was to read it if it reviewed better on Amazon than Feast, but it failed that test in the end. Did you read it because the earlier reviews were more positive? or were you caught up in the excitement of the release and unable to keep to the plan? Was the book as you expected from the reviews? Was it a good plan?

  • Married at age 21 A few years ago the president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, asserted that his nation did not have gays as they did in the West. What Ahmadinejad seems to have meant is that a public gay identity does not exist in Iran. He has to be aware that homosexual behavior is not...
  • How clear are the details of English public school or navies? Do they match #12?

  • From The Guardian:Here's the abstract:General intelligence is an important human quantitative trait that accounts for much of the variation in diverse cognitive abilities. Individual differences in intelligence are strongly associated with many important life outcomes, including educational and occupational attainments, income, health and lifespan. Data from twin and family studies are consistent with a high...
  • How does this differ from earlier GWAS studies? Older studies identified lots of genes, none of which replicated. If they don't explain why the earlier studies failed, why should we trust this study? (Maybe they do address this, but the abstract implies that there were no earlier studies.)

    Yes, it's good that they were able to predict IQ in a separate sample, but only 1% of the variance. Those p-values for the 1% don't sound right to me.

    How can they explain 40-50% if they haven't found the genes, but only have SNPs in linkage disequilibrium? Everyone who has these genes happens to have characteristic SNPs?

    Maybe the linkage disequilibrium SNPs explains why other studies weren't replicated. One should expect different GWAS to point to different SNPs. But if the second study directly asked whether a SNP in the first was predictive, it should replicate. As far as I know, they fail even this test.

  • Remember all those car-burnings in Paris suburbs that peaked in 2005? Did we ever get a straight story on whether the rioters were mostly North Africans or sub-Saharan Africans? The American press assumed the former, and that therefore the car-be-ques were a Muslim thing, but there were hints that this was more like a U.S....
  • Steve,

    this sounds like the kind of thing where you, personally, look at photos and tell us.

  • A few people have pointed me to Charles Murray's comment at The Enterprise Blog, The Debate about Heritability of General Intelligence Radically Narrows, which alludes to the recent finding of genomic confirmation of the behavior genetic heritability measure for intelligence. Murray indicates that this should end the "debate" on the heritability of intelligence as a...
  • Let’s talk about Germans, not the English, because there is more data. Would the graph look very different for their descendents? In the end the slaves were slightly taller, and that has reversed today, but most of the gap at age 15 was due not to final height, but to speed of maturation. I believe that in America today blacks mature faster than whites.

    Of course, the class part of the graph shows that maturation then was largely environmental.

    (I assume that the graph is just males. If I recall correctly, in America, black men are almost as tall as white men, but black women are somewhat shorter than white women. If this graph is both sexes, then the change of the difference of final heights is large.)

  • Earlier, I pointed out how remarkable it is that Charles Darwin has, in recent decades, been promoted to near-divine status in our culture, while his 13-year younger half-cousin Francis Galton has been demonized. I don't know a huge amount about the two, having merely read a few biographies. Still, the two don't strike me as polar...
  • Maybe Darwin is famous for inventing natural selection, but Wallace did that, too. Darwin is important for his thorough work on it.

    There was a big fight of credit between Newton and Hooke about the inverse square law leading to Kepler's laws. But Newton wrote a book and won.

  • In the comments below a weird fact came to light: it does not seem that liberal/Democrat reduced skepticism toward astrology vs. conservatives/Republicans can be explained just by a secularization, and therefore diminished Christian orthodoxy. There are two reasons for this. First, on a priori grounds most people are religious, liberals and conservatives. The difference between...
  • It is a common claim that Newton’s mysticism allowed him to postulate action at a distance. Actually, he didn’t like it, either, and said that it must be only a practical theory and not fundamental.

  • I'm not very interested in music compared to the average person. But I'm curious about changing tastes in music over time, because it's part of our cultural fabric. Since I lack real "thick" knowledge in this domain, I started to think of crutches to allow me to get a slice of perception as a function...
  • I was surprised how rarely the top single came from the top album.

  •   The post below is probably going to elicit a lot of comments. Some of it will repeat chestnuts of historical wisdom which illustrate the ignorance of the typical modern. For example, it is false that the lower classes always have more children than the upper classes. In general it is the reverse, because the...
  • fish, the numbers claim to have been surveyed after the year 2000, largely after childbearing.

  • In light of growing health care costs and the demographic reality of an aging profession stories like this one in The New York Times are both depressing and hopeful. Calling the Nurse ‘Doctor,’ a Title Physicians Oppose: But while all physician organizations support the idea of teamwork, not all physicians are willing to surrender the...
  • As to the name, I have no sympathy for those who live by the sword. Physicians wanted the respectability of teachers, so they stole the name. They shouldn’t be surprised if nurses do the same to them.

  • For those who talk of “terminal degrees,” there is only one: the habilitation.

  • The Washington Post writes about the public speaking racket:I really don't get the public speaking bus
  • Lots of powerless bad speakers are on the circuit, too. eg, Ray Kurzweil speaks to lots of groups that would seem uninterested in what he has to say.

  • Follow up to the previous post, (Via Ed), Fetal gene screening comes to market: In the "news your can use" section of their press release:
  • Actually, this company was already selling maternal blood screening for cystic fibrosis last year, and received an FDA complaint. What’s new this month is trisomy 21, which is ordinarily easier to test for, but apparently harder this way.

  • My main current interest in personal genomics right now is pure recreation. I don't expect much utility out of it, because a lot of correlations between genes (SNPs, etc. ) and traits/diseases are rather weak. But there are some exceptions. Recently I was temporarily put on a prescription medication and I wanted to check if...
  • Is there any example of pharmacogenetics that is not about rate of metabolizing the drug?

    Why not directly measure serum levels? This would catch unknown genetic variation in metabolism rates, interaction with other drugs, etc.

  • I should try to get the NYPD to raid my garage and throw out for me all the decades of junk piled up in there.Anyway, Occupy Wall Street reminds me of another current phenomenon, food trucks and other businesses that have set themselves up rent-free in the public streets.For example, in recent years, there's always...
  • I believe that food trucks in good locations pay rent.

  • Here's a lengthy article by Benoit Denizet-Lewis on problems with the faddishly-popular English bulldogs (the #1 breed in L.A., a factoid that is cited in the article as a self-evidently alarming statistic). Back since bull-baiting was outlawed in 1835, English bulldogs have been bred to look like a cartoon of a human baby, with all sorts...
  • You can explain anything by assuming it fits the goals. Do owners have worse goals, or are they falling prey to marketing? Do the owners have the wrong goals, or do the breeders?

    What effect will the split between US and UK standards yield? Can the UK make the dogs healthier without losing popularity?

  • At the VDARE blog, I write:Read the whole thing
  • Have you read Clinton's book on giving? Do you think he wrote it?

  • Nicholas D. Kristof writes in the NYT:Way back in 2000, I wrote a 5-part series for VDARE on How to Help the Left Half of the Bell Curve. In it, I protested: "America's growing IQ stratification, and the resulting class war that the clever are waging upon the clueless, is one of the great unmentionables."The...
  • Your experience at the dealership is an example of salesmen not profiling. Why did they apply these tactics to a gringo? Do they not have enough white customers to bother learning other techniques?

  • There's been extensive reporting in the media on the rise of Chrome, and the decline of Firefox, based on StatCounter data. I've got access to four weblog analytics, one of them going back to 2006. I see the same trend. It's real. What I don't understand is the lack of acknowledgment of the continued stagnation...
  • While the WSJ doesn’t mention the fast decline of IE, its graph agrees with yours, though sandwiching FF makes it hard to read.

    I’ve seen a lot of these graphs and they are usually quite sensitive to the particular website. I’m surprised your data agrees so well with StatCounter.

  • Economist Robert H. Frank (as Half Sigma likes to point out, there are a whole bunch of commentators named Robert Frank, so it's important to use the middle initial) writes in Slate:It’s done that through a process that I’ve elsewhere called “expenditure cascades.” The process begins with the completely unremarkable fact that top earners have...
  • Bigger houses, especially when mandated by developers and / or zoning,

    Developers and zoning are completely different. Zoning usually mandates large lots, not large houses. This produces artificial scarcity to drive up the price and keep the poor out. Developers want large houses, close together. In CA, the cost of the house is small compared to the cost of the land. And, as you always say, a large house is cheap if you're willing to put lots of people in it.

  • Fascinating story about the re-identification of people of Eurasian ancestry as white to get into elite universities. Some Asians' college strategy: Don't check 'Asian': In the article Steve Hsu observes that the Ivy League universities have a suspiciously similar proportion of Asians, about 2/3 of the fraction of a "race blind" admissions college like Cal...
  • Steve Hsu @41, I think it is important to distinguish between unconscious discrimination and quotas. They could both be true, but unconscious discrimination doesn’t seem relevant once there is a quota. The claim in that quote is that Stanford was surprised to discover that it was holding Asians to a higher standard. That seems to require it not to have a quota. Of course, there are complicated possibilities, such as some admissions officers being unconscious of a quota enacted by others.

  • Silicon Valley: In Steve Hsu’s comment thread, Yan Shen quotes the book “The Chinese in Silicon Valley.” It says that of the top 150 companies of SV, 10% had Asian CEOs (including Indians) in 1999. But the percentage of high tech firms in general is much higher and much more Chinese than Indian. I find implausible the claim of 20k Chinese engineers and 2-3k Chinese high tech CEOs.

    The book has a lot of statistics, but they are badly organized, alternating lumping and splitting, absolute numbers and percentages, different years, etc. I don’t trust that the author correctly describes them, but his sources might be useful.