One of the great mysteries of recent years is the exact rank ordering of the Intersectional Pyramid of Privilege. We know that it was invented to elevate black women over black men and white women. And it goes without saying that straight white men are at the bottom.
But what about more subtle questions like how does a Muslim immigrant straight man from a fairly white-adjacent place like Malaysia match up with a Jewish lesbian from Park Slope? Who wins?
Market researchers have been using conjoint analysis for generations to measure consumers’ preference tradeoffs when shopping.
Has conjoint analysis _ever_ been used to nail down the status rank order on the Intersectional Totem Pole.
From the New York Times news section:
How Much Racism Do You Face Every Day?
By AMY HARMON
JAN. 20, 2020
To see how your experience with discrimination compares with others’, answer some of the questions that were posed to 101 black teenagers as part of a study measuring the racism they face on a daily basis.
Anti-black bigotry in America can take many forms, some overt and some harder to measure. To find out just how pervasive racism is, a team of researchers tracked the experiences of 101 black teenagers in Washington, D.C., for two weeks.
Here are some of those questions presented to the teenagers. See how your experience compares. Your tally will appear at the bottom.
In the past two weeks,
How many times were you mistaken for someone else of your same race/ethnicity (who may not look like you at all)?
How many times did you see a racist image online (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram or in a comments section)?
How many times did a teacher assume that you were an expert on people of your same race/ethnic background? (If you are not a student, consider a co-worker.)
Collectively, the 101 black teens participating in the study reported more than 5,600 experiences of racial discrimination over two weeks. That boils down to an average of more than five instances per day for each teenager. That’s more than 70 over two weeks.
Those findings may not be surprising to those who face routine discrimination, but they reflect a higher frequency of racism than has previously been reported.
What caused the increase? Researchers say that the study was the first to include so many expressions of racial bias, 58 in all, and to ask participants to record them daily. Previous studies have typically asked participants to recall experiences from the past, which researchers say is not as accurate.
Although there has been an increase in hate crimes during the Trump administration, this study measures incidents that occurred when Barack Obama was in the White House.
From FBI crime statistics for the 71% of murder victims of 2014-2018 (sample size 49,808) for which there is a known and specified weapon:
Murder victims are 22 times more likely to be killed with a handgun as with a rifle, but most of the gun control energy in recent years has been paid to rifles.
As I’ve often pointed out, the existence of official government reports is important in establishing the respectability of a topic. For example, before the release of the Rotherham Report in 2014, it should have been obvious to anybody who didn’t have his head buried in the sand that England had a massive problem with Pakistani pimps sexually abusing underage English girls. But the abundance of different kinds of evidence wasn’t getting the issue talked about in the Respectable Media, until the city of Rotherham issued an official report on the subject.
Similarly, the statistical fact that African-Americans commit murder at a vastly higher per capita rate than do white Americans is not something you are supposed to mention in the press, but at least dissidents in the comments can cite a PDF issued by the federal Bureau of Justice Statistic s back in 2011 that found that blacks were, per capita, 7.4 times as likely to be murder offenders as whites, with whites, curiously, including almost all Hispanics.
The Bush Administration posted homicide by race trend graphs in easy to use HTML format. The Obama Administration memoryholed the more user-friendly version of the report, but at least issued an update in 2011, even if it is in hard to use PDF format. The Trump Administration hasn’t done anything.
— BostonTea (@Gun_Stats) January 19, 2020
But the black-white gap in murder offending might be worse than the Obama Administration’s 2011 report suggests. One obvious problem with the Bureau of Justice Statistics “Homicide” report is that it doesn’t break out Hispanics from whites, unlike almost all other government reports since c. 1970.
Back in 1945-1965, Latin American pressure groups such as LULAC asked government agencies to lump...
The U.S. Ambassador to South Korea, retired 4 star admiral Harry Harris (appointed by Trump a couple of years ago), has recently grown a mustache, which has become a flashpoint in South Korea.
Harris is half-Japanese and many personages in Imperial Japan during the era when Japan ruled Korea, 1910-1945, such as Hirohito, Tojo, and almost all Japanese governor-generals of Korea, wore mustaches. Of course, being half-white, Harris’s mustache is more impressive than that of most of these Japanese figures.
By Joshua Berlinger, CNN
Updated 1604 GMT (0004 HKT) January 17, 2020
(CNN) It might just be the most bizarre criticism of a US ambassador in recent memory.
Harry Harris, Washington’s envoy to South Korea, has been subjected to heated vitriol on social media and by anonymous netizens for his mustache.
That small piece of facial hair has, as Harris put it, “for some reason become a point of some fascination here in the media.”
“If you watch social media it’s all out there,” Harris, the former head of US Pacific Forces, told a group of foreign reporters Thursday.
On the surface, the critiques border on ridiculousness. It’s just a small patch of hair.
But Harris’ ‘stache has sparked discussions on topics much bigger than the ambassador himself: the still-raw emotions among many Koreans about the legacy of Japanese occupation; the prevalence of racism in such a homogenous society; and cracks appearing in the future of the decades-old alliance between Seoul and Washington as the two sides attempt to reach a deal on how to cover the cost of US troops stationed in South Korea, amid reports that President Donald Trump demanded a 400% pay increase.
From the opinion section of The Guardian:
Micah White is the co-creator of Occupy Wall Street, author of The End of Protest: A New Playbook for Revolution and founder of Activist Graduate School, an online school for activists
Rejecting Davos is easy when one hasn’t been invited. Now that I have a chance to go, I want to discover its revolutionary potential
Sat 18 Jan 2020 02.00 EST
Last year in Taki’s I pointed out that it’s interesting that the Great Awokening began not long after the collapse of Occupy Wall Street in late 2011. Perhaps the rise of Woke Capital was a response to the Occupy movement to exacerbate Occupy’s tendency to fragment into identity politics squabbles instead of focusing on expropriating the rich. If so, Davos might be a natural place to organize Woke Capital.
But I haven’t noticed much new evidence for this conspiracy theory since I published it.
Hispanics/Latinos are a diverse group of admixed populations with African, European, and Native American ancestries. They remain understudied, and thus little is known about the genetic architecture of phenotypic variation in these populations. Using genome-wide genotype data from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos, we find that Native American ancestry has increased over time across Hispanic/Latino populations, particularly in Mexican Americans where Native American ancestry increased by an average of ∼20% over the 50-year period spanning 1940s-1990s. We find similar patterns across American cities, and replicate our observations in an independent sample of Mexican Americans. These dynamic ancestry patterns are a result of a complex interaction of several population and cultural factors, including strong ancestry-related assortative mating and subtle shifts in migration with differences in subcontinental Native American ancestry over time. These factors have shaped patterns of genetic variation, including an increase in runs of homozygosity in Native American ancestral tracts, and also influenced the genetic architecture of complex traits within the Mexican American population. We show for height, a trait correlated with ancestry, polygenic risk scores based on summary statistics from a European-based genome-wide association study perform poorly in Mexican Americans. Our findings reveal temporal changes in population structure within Hispanics/Latinos that may influence biomedical traits, demonstrating a crucial need to improve our understanding of the genetic diversity of admixed populations.
T hey find that Mexican Americans born in the 1930s averaged 43% Native Americans vs. 54% Native American for Mexican Americans born in the 1990s, based on the smoothed graph above, although perhaps the peak Amerindian ancestral percentage was those born in the 1980s.
This helps explain the curious fact that Mexican-Americans used to be...
From NBC News’ opinion section:
Republicans and Democrats alike have been unwilling to reprimand voters or to hold them accountable. But racist voting isn’t an accident.
Image: Donald Trump
Jan. 17, 2020, 1:30 AM PST
By Noah Berlatsky
If the Trump era has taught us anything, it’s that large numbers of white people in the United States are motivated at least in part by racism in the voting booth. …
Terry Smith, a visiting professor at the University of Baltimore School of Law, offers a different response in his new book, “Whitelash: Unmasking White Grievance at the Ballot Box.” Rather than excuse racist voters or try to figure out how to live with their choices, he argues that racist voting is not just immoral, but illegal. The government, Smith says, has the ability, and the responsibility, to address it.
This sounds radical. But Smith argues that it’s in line with the Constitution and with years of court rulings. For example, Smith points out that racist appeals in union elections are illegal and that an election in which one side uses racist appeals can be invalidated by the National Labor Relations Board. Similarly, in the 2016 case Peña v. Rodriguez, the Supreme Court ruled that when a juror expresses overt bigotry, the jury’s verdict should be invalidated.
“When voters go to the booth, they’re not expressing a mere personal preference,” Smith told me. According to Smith, voters who pull the levers to harm black people are violating the Constitution. If the Constitution means that overt racist appeals undermine the legality of union elections, it stands to reason that they undermine the legality of other elections, as well.
So how can you tell when voters are acting out of prejudice? Again, Smith says, employment discrimination law provides a useful analogy. In discrimination cases, courts...
Races reversed, the biggest story in America. Right? You know what happens when a black individual engages in a mass shooting? Silence from the corporate media. They can’t be promoting racial stereotypes, can they?
Confirming them wouldn’t be productive, right?
No narrative (white gun owner, with obviously racist leanings, engaging in a mass shooting to justify his small sexual organ) to advance…
Only hours before the day tens of thousands of white people would peacefully march with AR-15s and other semi-automatic weapons in Richmond, Virginia, defending their right to bear arms (defending the 2nd Amendment in the face of tyranny), a black criminal in Missouri would once again remind the nation why the 2nd Amendment should be null and void for blacks [Police identify gunman in mass shooting outside Kansas City bar, KCTV5.com, January 20, 2020]:
KANSAS CITY, MO (KCTV) — Police continue to investigate after a mass shooting took place at a nightclub Sunday night.
Two people were killed, one of whom was the shooter. At least 15 people were injured.
The shooter is identified as 29-year-old
of Kansas City, Missouri. He has a record meaning he shouldn’t have had a gun, but he has several.
Police said that an armed private security guard at the club shot and killed Swift about 11:30 p.m. just outside of 9ine Ultra Lounge located in the 4800 block of Noland Road.
The victim is 25-year-old Raeven A. Parks of Kansas City.
At least three of the 15 injured victims are in critical condition.
Police say they have not yet interviewed all of the victims and do not yet know whether all were injured by gunfire.
Investigators recovered multiple firearms at the scene. It appears the suspect and the security guard were the only ones who fired shots, police said.
KCTV5 News spoke to a security guard who was at the nightclub, he says the gunman got into a fight with a few guys and was denied entry. That was when the gunman went to his car to get the gun he then...
Richmond, Virginia is a city where virtually all gun crime is committed by blacks. It’s a 48 percent black/41 percent white city, where statues dedicated to Stonewall Jackson and Robert E. Lee on Monument Avenue are somehow compelling blacks to kill one another. Even the statue of black tennis legend Arthur Ashe can’t compel blacks to put down the guns and stop shooting one another.
In the Beyond Containment: Reevaluating What’s Important to Improve Public Safety in Richmond report published by the Richmond Office of the Commonwealth’s Attorney in January of 2019, we learn the role blacks play in violent crime in the capital city.
The answer? Basically all of it:
Indeed, the numbers are alarming. Richmond’s population is approximately 48% African American20, yet according to Richmond’s Police Department, in the last three years, 88% of violent offenders and 77% of violent crime victims in our city have been Black. Even in gentrifying neighborhoods like Churchill North and Fulton, about 90% of victims of violent crime are still Black. Why are we seeing so much crime involving Black residents? Perhaps this phenomenon can be attributed to neighborhood demographics or correlations with poverty on trauma. Or perhaps we need to dig deeper. Does the history of slavery, Jim Crow, and segregation constitute a sort of cultural trauma internalized by our Black residents? If so, do we see this internalized trauma in some of the violence in the Black community? (p. 6)
Perhaps segregation existed to protect white people from black criminality? Perhaps this is why segregation persists in 2020 Richmond, VA? What if propensity to violent crime has nothing to do with poverty, neighborhood demographics or trauma, but genetics?
What if white people long ago understood this and enacted laws to protect their civilization and posterity from the same...
As [primarily, no, overwhelmingly] white Virginia gun owners prepare to descend upon Richmond and declare their support for the 2nd Amendment in the face of tyranny (all possible because of demographic change courtesy of mass immigration), it’s important to remember who/whom in the Commonwealth is responsible for violent crime.
Gun crime in Richmond, Virginia Beach, and Norfolk is overwhelmingly committed by blacks. Were data actually published for fatal/nonfatal shootings in Richmond, we’d learn blacks are responsible for close to 96 percent of all fatal/nonfatal gun crime in the capital city of Virginia.
But this data is rarely published by police departments, because it would only confirm stereotypes about gun crime we all know to be true.
The statistics are right there, if you just know where to look. Virginia is an 62 percent white state. Its population is 19 percent black.
The 2018 Virginia Uniform Crime Report provides an interesting look at violent crime in the 62 percent white state:
Though blacks are just 19 percent of the population, they represented 70 percent of the arrests for homicide in the state of Virginia in 2018.
It should be noted Hispanics are lumped in with whites in the Virginia Uniform Crime Report.
This means blacks were 8 times more likely than whites to be arrested for homicide in Virginia in 2018.
If only the Richmond Police Department would release fatal/nonfatal shooting data by suspects race, we’d be able to find out who/whom is committing all the gun crime in the capital city of Virginia. Odds are it’s close to 98 percent fatal/nonfatal shootings being committed by blacks.
Previously on SBPDL: Memphis Commercial Appeal APOLOGIZES for RUNNING Truthful Headline About Massacre of Five White Cops in Dallas and Even Though He Had Non-White Friends and Colleagues, John Palmer “J.P.” Shelley Is Still Dead (Courtesy of Three Black Males)
If you want a glimpse of the future, where extreme white guilt is exacerbated with toxic levels of white privilege-rejecting white people, look no further than this insanity from 65 percent black Memphis.
A young white boy is attacked by a group of black kids over a $20 bill. A white Unitarian minister runs to the local media and describes the real crime as being “insensitive” Facebook posts from outraged neighbors noticing the racial angle of the assault on the young white child.
Calling these black attackers of their white child “thugs” and “criminals” is a far, far worse crime than the racial attack itself… [Memphis family hopes for perspective after attack, WREG.com, January 16, 2020]:
MEMPHIS, Tenn. — One Memphis family is sending a surprising message to a group of teenagers that attacked their son.
The family is dealing with a traumatic event, but they do not want stereotypes or preconceived notions to paint an unfair picture about the boys who attacked a member of their family.
A group of teens was spotted in a Cooper-Young neighborhood riding bikes Sunday afternoon. They can be seen in a video following a pair down an empty street.
Less than two hours later, their actions took a violent turn.
One of them asked 16-year-old Leif Love-Cloys for a dollar. He gave it to them.
But when he refused to hand over a $20 bill they saw in his wallet, the group attacked.
“That’s when they jumped him,” mother Rev. Edith Love said. “One of them held him from behind, while another one was punching him on the sides of his head.”
Though traumatic, the attack did not leave any permanent physical damage, but the family is hurting due to social...
The Queen City.
Charlotte, North Carolina.
A 45 percent white/35 percent black city (the rest of the racial breakdown largely Mexican illegal immigrants helping build new homes, high rise condos, strip malls and commercial real estate for white people escaping areas of the city overwhelmed by black crime).
2019 was a particularly violent year in the city, fueled by individual blacks collectively trying hard to live up to every negative stereotype surrounding Africans in America and violence. [A deadly year: 2019 murder rate was Charlotte’s worst in more than a decade, Charlotte Post, January 16, 2020]:
Charlotte just posted its highest murder rate in more than a decade, prompting city leaders to say the violence should be treated as a public health crisis.
The city’s rate — 11.6 homicides per 100,000 people — is the highest since 2005 and more than double the rate from just six years ago. That year, 2014, remains Charlotte’s lowest on record. The rate takes into account population growth and is one way to look at deadly violence in Charlotte over time.
This month, city leaders have raised concerns following the 88% increase in the number of homicides in 2019 — 107 — compared with 57 in 2018.
Although only 35% of the city’s population is black, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, the majority — 80% — of 2019 homicide victims were black, according to the Observer’s analysis of data provided by CMPD. Of those killed, 80% were men.
Half of the victims, both men and women, were under 30 years old.
Arrests have not been made in around one-third of the 2019 murder cases. Of the 107 homicides, officers have closed about 78 cases.
Because investigations are ongoing, complete demographic information on people charged with murder is not available. Statistics from homicide cases from 2016 to 2018, however, indicate some trends, CMPD says.
▪ 90% of homicide suspects were male
▪ 85% were black
▪ 41% were between 18 and 24 years old, a segment...
“Frodo: I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.
Gandalf: So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us.” — Lord of the Rings
Gun crime in the state of Virginia is overwhelmingly committed by blacks. It’s a fact the National Rifle Association (NRA) is afraid to admit, and every conservative runs from admitting.
Race and gun crime (fatal and nonfatal shootings) for every city and state in the USA represents the key to unlocking the truth about gun control in America. But both conservatives and liberals fear this door opening, for racial truths would flow forward, immediately requiring justification for being locked away from public consumption for so long, because lives could have been saved were they promoted and instituted into public policy.
And now, as Democrats in Virginia (courtesy of demographic change fueled by legal immigration and monolithic black vote) seek to pass massive gun control, white Virginia rises.
And now, one of the whitest states in America is offering those heavily white counties in Virginia declaring themselves Second Amendment sanctuaries the chance to secede and join West Virginia. [HOUSE CONCURRENT RESOLUTION 8, West Virginia Legislature, January 14, 2020]:
HOUSE CONCURRENT RESOLUTION 8
(By Delegates Howell, Summers, Shott, Householder, C. Martin, Hott, Graves, Cadle, Barnhart, J. Jeffries, Maynard, Phillips, Foster, Hamrick, Steele, D. Jeffries, Wilson, Waxman, Bartlett, Paynter, Linville, Sypolt, Bibby, Hill, Ellington, Higginbotham, J. Kelly, Mandt, Pack, Dean and P. Martin)
[Introduced January 14, 2020]
Providing for an election to be had, pending approval of the General Assembly of the Commonwealth...
He had no ‘white privilege’.
He was a septuagenarian, a man of modest means, living in Davenport, Iowa.
His name is Bob Long. He was a prolific author of books dealing with chess.
He was a white man. You’ll never hear his name, unless you read one of his many books on chess, or live in Davenport, Iowa and learn about how he was strangled to death in a botched car robbery.
Mind you, his murderer was a black teenager. [UPDATE: Davenport murder suspect charged with assaulting, robbing Rock Island County man in October 2019, KWQC.com, January 9, 2020]:
According to Rock Island County Court documents, Charlie Gary III, 19, of Davenport is facing battery, theft, and robbery charges stemming from a case in October.
This is in addition to the homicide case where a 74-year-old man was strangled to death and found dead Tuesday evening in Davenport.
According to the criminal complaint, on October 27, 2019, Gary assaulted a 63-year-old man of Rock Island, striking him in the head with a TV and a lamp. The complaint also shows Gary reportedly stole the man’s vehicle and a 55′ flat-screen television.
Meanwhile, Davenport police tell TV6 there is no information that would indicate a cause for concern for community safety after the Davenport victim, Robert Long, 74, was killed.
Police say while the investigation is ongoing at this time, preliminary information shows the victim knew 19-year-old Charlie Gary III. Police say that information also shows they believe this was not a random incident.
Police say on Tuesday, just before 5:45 p.m., they were called to the 1500 block of LeClaire Street in reference to an unresponsive person. That man, 74-year-old Robert Long, was pronounced dead at the scene.
Police say Gary III, of Davenport, admitted to police that he went into the man’s home forcibly with the intent to steal the man’s car. Police say Gary III strangled Long, killing him and then stole property and his car and left the scene. Police...
“What I’m saying is that man had rights!”
Well I’m all broken up about that man’s rights.
— Dirty Harry
The new District Attorney of San Francisco has declared war on the criminal justice system. Why? All because the concept of law and order is, in his eyes, deemed to perpetuate “structural inequalities and white supremacy.”
Translation: too many people of color in jail and an insufficient amount of whites behind bars.
More to the point, don’t all white people know they are automatically in a gang even if they don’t know the secret handshakes? That’s the genius of the concept of white privilege, where the only gang color necessary for identification is white skin. [SF DA-elect Chesa Boudin sets new course in gang cases, citing charges ‘infused with racism’, San Francisco Chronicle, December 15, 2019]:
One of Chesa Boudin’s first planned policy changes when he takes over as San Francisco’s district attorney next month seeks to answer a question that has long ignited debates in the city: Should people accused of crimes face harsher punishments if their actions allegedly benefited a street gang?
The former public defender, who takes office Jan. 8, promises to put an end to filing what are known as gang enhancements against defendants — charges that can add years to felony sentences. Gang enhancements have drawn increased opposition in California, driven by statistics showing that they are disproportionately applied to people of color in poor neighborhoods.
Many law enforcement leaders say the charges are an important tool that allows them to hold gang members accountable for the fear they create in communities when they protect turf, intimidate witnesses, recruit new associates and commit violent crimes. But critics...
COTW comes from 216 in response to MikeatMikedotMike on a question I often find myself pondering–does the quotidian degeneracy of the contemporary Western world have to bust through institutions and organizations standing in opposition to it like a battering ram against a fortified gate, or does it merely lean up against rotted wooden planks and casually walk inside?
There is also a subversive political and cultural force working to reduce fertility in the US and the West in general.
Most would say that East Asia is less effected by this subversion, yet their fertility rates are even lower. Even Iran has sub-replacement fertility, and the very purpose of the Iranian government is to prevent Westoxification.
The propaganda just isn’t as effective as we think it is. Westerners are constantly bombarded with ideal sexualized imagery, but are more obese than ever. A far larger share of voters express nationalist sentiments, but don’t vote for nationalist parties.
Psychology aside, it’s never been easier to achieve peak physical condition than it is today–equipment, trainers, 24/7 gyms, supplements, food variety and availability, climate control for optimal sleep hygiene, etc and yet most people today are the fattest, least physically capable people that have ever been. That’s because psychology can’t be put aside. People know what they want, know what they have to do to get it, but won’t do it.
Regarding fertility, while America’s realized fertility has steadily declined, her ideal fertility has not. Since the GSS’ inception, the survey has asked respondents how many children a family should have. The ideal average number of children, by decade:
1970s — 2.69
1980s — 2.58
1990s — 2.46
2000s — 2.50
2010s — 2.58
After hitting an all time low in the mid-seventies, realized American fertility rebounded modestly through the nineties and oughts, but set new record lows at the end of the teens....
The following results are unsurprising, especially upon realizing that “others” includes American Indians. As Steve Sailer has noted, the white man and the red man are increasingly behaving like defeated peoples, their existences characterized by rising rates of depression, directionless, substance abuse, and suicide.
Percentages who deem doctor-assisted suicide to be “morally acceptable”, by race:
Nothing happens to any man that he is not fitted by nature to bear. We get a hundred years to live if we’re lucky. Find joy in them. You have until the end of time to be dead.
If you’re going to take the easy way out, though, you may as well enlist the aid of a physician. It’s less messy than a bullet to the brain.
In early 2017, YouGov asked about various forms of speech they thought “people should be able to talk about in public”. Five controversial subjects were evaluated–personal criticisms of the president, calls for violence, sexually explicit language, racial slurs, and religiously offensive remarks.
The following graph shows the percentages, by selected demographics, who asserted that none of these things should be permitted in public. These are people who, if they don’t want free speech snuffed out entirely, want it relegated to basements and boiler rooms:
Young, affluent, liberal white and Asian men–Silicon Valley check?–are, at least abstractly, the most resistant to the concept of silencing unpopular opinions. This discomfort is a virtue to be celebrated. To kill open expression is to murder that which has set us free:
Or how over-policing is a problem over there, but not over here. Congress is bad but my congress critter is good. The police state is bad but don’t take the police out of my state.
From YouGov back in 2017, percentages who would “prefer to see in your local area” “a larger police presence”, “no change”, or “a smaller police presence”, by selected demographics. “Don’t know” responses, constituting 11% of the total, are excluded:
Anarcho-X has few friends. Order precedes liberty, especially where population densities are high. De-policing kills.
The following graphs compare the last YouGov poll taken on the eve of the 2016 election with the most recent YouGov poll in mid-January of 2020 by race. One major distinction, of course, is that the 2020 Democrat candidate has yet to be determined. We are thus making a Clintons-to-Generics comparison.
From a Trumpian perspective, things appear woeful among whites:
Better among blacks:
Happier among Hispanics:
And astonishing among others:
Trump’s point gain (loss) in 2020 relative to 2016, by race:
Seeing is believing, sure. These are merely polling prognostications. But the potential wrenches they throw in both conventional and contrarian narratives is fascinating.
President Trump has focused the Republican electorate on immigration and re-calibrated its views on trade. When it comes to war, however, it looks like they still want more. The following graph is constructed using data from YouGov’s latest release. “Not sure” responses, constituting 22% of the total, are excluded:
Though it seems redundant at first blush, responses by both partisan affiliation and 2016 presidential vote are included to show that Trump voters actually express more bellicosity than self-identified Republicans do. Bill Kristol wept and so do I.
This spark didn’t catch, but the next one might. Iranian aggression, in this context, involves retaliation for assassinations against a force we’ve spent most of the last 17 years essentially on the same side as. Iraq is safe for Shiite retaliation today because we toppled the Baathists and reduced Sunnis to the status of enfeebled minority more than a decade ago. When we allowed Sunnis to breath again, ISIS was born. We then spent several subsequent years fighting alongside Solemani’s forces to destroy the caliphate we facilitated the creation of:
If American forces weren’t camped next door, there would be no Iranian aggression to confront.
We need more than just an end to the forever wars. We need to end the conditions that create more of them. Bring the troops home.
The following table, created from results of Democrat primary survey data in the most recent Quinnipiac poll, shows the correlation in relative support by demographic group between the top seven candidates. The demographic categories considered are political orientation (very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate/conservative), sex (men, women), race (white, black), age (18-29, 30-44, 45-64, 65+) and annual income (less than $50k, $50k-$100k, over $100k). Positive correlations indicate similar demographic support profiles, negative correlations indicate dissimilar ones:
To make the information easier to digest, here is how the rest of the field compares to each candidate, from most similar to least similar.
Pairing the top three candidates up with the one most dissimilar to him/herself for a potential full ticket, with the more popular one at the top, yields the following:
A Warren/Bloomberg ticket is implausible, but the other two are quite conceivable. Though I’m still eating Harris Crow leftovers, I’ll go ahead and audaciously predict a Biden/Yang nomination now.
On the other side of things, the most demographically similar candidates stand to gain the lion’s share from said similar candidates dropping out. The progressive cannibalization from Sanders and Warren is the most salient illustration of this. Less often discussed but potentially critical in ending the nominating process in...
America (and probably even more so Canada) are becoming increasingly expensive, competitive, and anti-social. That has all sorts of interesting implications.
Imagine a society full of young people working long hours for low wages, deep in debt, living in tiny apartments/pods (or with parents), eating vegan, “socializing” through a smartphone, afraid of being accused of sexual harassment, staring at a screen for most of the day, and immersed in a pro-gay/lesbian/trans culture.
It’s not an environment conducive towards getting pregnant.
It doesn’t require much in the way of imagination anymore.
It is an environment conducive for electing a Democratic Socialist. though. Throw in the coming siege of the sexbots and pregnancy won’t stand a chance:
And another perfectly succinct one from SFG:
A conservative’s idea of a white supremacist is a guy with Nazi tattoos who lives in a compound by himself and stockpiles guns for the coming race war he intends to start. A liberal’s idea is a white person who doesn’t hate himself.
The latter sentence would have sounded hyperbolic even five years ago. Today, it almost sounds too tame–even whites who are ashamed of and hate themselves must be made to understand how they unwillingly work to uphold white supremacy anyway. We’re awfully close to having to drop the “who doesn’t hate himself” part.