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I noted on Friday that libs were getting “anxious” about the MA Senate race.
The latest numbers from Public Policy Polling should have them hitting the panic button even faster:
The Massachusetts Senate race is now a toss up.
Buoyed by a huge advantage with independents and relative disinterest from Democratic voters in the state, Republican Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 48-47.
Here are the major factors leading to this surprising state of affairs:
-As was the case in the Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia last year, it looks like the electorate in Massachusetts will be considerably more conservative than the one that showed up in 2008. Obama took the state by 26 points then, but those planning to vote next week only report having voted for him by 16.
-Republicans are considerably more enthusiastic about turning out to vote than Democrats are. 66% of GOP voters say they are ‘very excited’ about casting their votes, while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment- and that’s among the Democrats who are planning to vote in contrast to the many who are apparently not planning to do so at this point.
-Brown has eye popping numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley. Health care may be hurting Democratic fortunes with that group, as only 27% of independents express support for Obama’s plan with 59% opposed.
Hey, remember when Biden campaigned for losing Democrat gubernatorial candidate Jon Corzine in New Jersey and when Obama campaigned for losing Democrat gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds in Virginia one week before Election Day?
Please, Mr. Obama, go up to Massachusetts and campaign for your SEIU-backed pal Martha Coakley. Work your reverse-Midas magic again!
Culture of Corruption, Bay State-style: The Dems want to keep Ted Kennedy’s seat by any means necessary….
Friday, a spokesman for Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin, who is overseeing the election but did not respond to a call seeking comment, said certification of the Jan. 19 election by the Governor’s Council would take a while.
“Because it’s a federal election,” spokesman Brian McNiff said. “We’d have to wait 10 days for absentee and military ballots to come in.”
Another source told the Herald that Galvin’s office has said the election won’t be certified until Feb. 20 – well after the president’s address.
Since the U.S. Senate doesn’t meet again in formal session until Jan. 20, Bay State voters will have made their decision before a vote on health-care reform could be held. But Kirk and Galvin’s office said Friday a victorious Brown would be left in limbo.
In contrast, Rep. Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell) was sworn in at the U.S. House of Representatives on Oct. 18, 2007, just two days after winning a special election to replace Martin Meehan. In that case, Tsongas made it to Capitol Hill in time to override a presidential veto of the expansion of the State Children’s Health Insurance Program.
Friday, Brown, who has been closing the gap with Coakley in polls and fund raising, blasted the political double standard.
“This is a stunning admission by Paul Kirk and the Beacon Hill political machine,” said Brown in a statement. “Paul Kirk appears to be suggesting that he, Deval Patrick, and (Senate Majority Leader) Harry Reid intend to stall the election certification until the health care bill is rammed through Congress, even if that means defying the will of the people of Massachusetts. As we’ve already seen from the backroom deals and kickbacks cut by the Democrats in Washington, they intend to do anything and everything to pass their controversial health care plan. But threatening to ignore the results of a free election and steal this Senate vote from the people of Massachusetts takes their schemes to a whole new level. Martha Coakley should immediately disavow this threat from one of her campaign’s leading supporters.”
Fight Demcare corruption/SEIU/Massachusetts’ political machine: Support Scott Brown for Senate here.
William Jacobson at Legal Insurrection blogs from Brown HQ:
My expectations were fairly low. I figured I’d stay an hour or so, talk to some people, get a better “on the ground” sense of things, send out some tweets and do a post.
I arrived at around 11 a.m. The best description of the experience was that it was like one of those movies or commercials where everything is quiet until the actor opens a door, and then there is a blast of noise and light.
From the moment I arrived until I left about 5 hours later, the atmosphere was electric. I had not expected the frenzy of phones ringing, people walking in the door to write checks, dozens of people making calls to voters, and generally ebullient mood.
Those of you who follow this blog know that I am a big supporter of Scott Brown. So I claim no neutrality. And you can believe me or not when I tell you that there is an air of excitement and movement which is beyond belief.
They are out of lawn signs and bumper stickers. Completely. Nothing left, but people kept calling all day wanting to find out where they could get them. I was told it has been this way for days.
The Boston Globe shows Coakley up 15 points.
Charlie Foxtrot notes:
Why the difference? Well the Globe poll is a poll of 554 likely-voters, but was conducted from 2-6 January. The PPP poll was made up of 774 likely-voters, and conducted from 7-9 January. Perhaps the PPP poll is more updated due to the very recent phone-bank ops conducted by the Brown campaign.
What is interesting is the political make-up of the Globe Poll. PPP breaks out its respondents as 44% Dem, 39% IND, and 17% GOP. The Globe is 55% Dem, 15% IND, and 28% GOP.
So the Globe immediately has a heavier disposition towards the Dems. Now perhaps their weighting is better than that of PPP, only time will tell.
OK, so this is a Boston Globe poll and who’s to say they’re more trustworthy than PPP? Well, PPP was way off on the NY-23 race most recently, so consider their recent track record.
I suspect the reality lies somewhere in between, with Coakley probably up by single digits and Brown gaining. Is there enough time for him to make up a single-digit gap? Perhaps. But 15 points? Highly doubtful when you consider this is the bluest of blue states and Democrats will probably be spooked enough to show up come election day. A scare for Democrats, no doubt, and an ominous sign for things nationally come November.
Karl in the Green Room takes a closer look at “What’s Up with the Mass. Polls.” An excerpt:
One point of agreement between the two polls is the role of relative intensity. PPP reports that “66% of GOP voters say they are ‘very excited’ about casting their votes, while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment.” The Globe reports that “Brown matches Coakley – both were at 47 percent – among the roughly 1 in 4 respondents who said they were ‘extremely interested’’ in the race.” Some might be tempted to frame these numbers as an “enthusiasm gap,” though it is probably more accurate to note that the Right tends to vote more regularly than the Left, and that the key for Coakley will be turning out enough of the state’s much larger pool of Democrats.
Gird your loins, in other words, for more SEIU shenanigans.