Update 1:02am Eastern. I’m giving the last word to Paul Mirengoff at Power Line, who sums up tonight’s results with the perfect blend of pith and sarcasm:
“Iowa has given its seal of approval to (1) a one-term Senator who stands for “hope” and “change” and (2) a tacky, big spending governor who doesn’t know much about foreign policy but did stay at a Holiday Inn Express. The common demoninator here, other than a patent lack of qualifications for the presidency, is likeability. Well done, (small fraction of) Iowa.”
Update 12:26am Eastern. Shepherd Smith asks, in light of Ron Paul’s 10 percent showing, whether Fox should reconsider its exclusion of Paul from the NH debate next week. Greta says yes. “Why not pull up another chair?” Smith appears to agree.
Update 11:55pm Eastern. Hah.
Update 11:06pm Eastern. Obamamania! “They said this day would never come. They said our sights were set too high…but on this January night, at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn’t do…Our time for change has come!”
ChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChange! Invokes Selma, the American Dream. An inspired speech.
I’ll say this: Obama gave the peppiest speech of the night–and his supporters registered the loudest on the applause-o-meter.
Hillary must be feeling a mighty chill wind.
Update 10:40pm Eastern. Huck takes the stage. Chuck Norris right behind him. “I love Iowa a whole lot!…It’s a new day in American politics…People are really more important than the purse.”
Update 10:27pm Eastern. Hillary takes the stage. I see Madeline Albright behind her. “This is a great night for Democrats.”
Just not for you, hon.
It’s all about “change.” ChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChangeChange. HRC: “I am so ready to lead!”
Update 10:15pm Eastern. Silky takes the stage to claim second place victory. “The status quo lost and change won.” Ugh. He’s talking about having a spine. I can’t watch anymore.
Update 10:02pm Eastern. Hill turned upside-down…For all her gender card-playing, it was Obama who won the women’s vote in Iowa…
Update 9:56pm Eastern. A Johnston, Iowa reader e-mails, “I just got home from my precinct’s caucus…here are the results:”
Johnston Iowa – Precinct 2
*Huckabee – 83 votes
*Romney – 64 votes
*Thompson – 35 votes
*McCain – 25 votes
*Ron Paul – 13 votes
*Keyes & Rudy – 6 votes
*Hunter – 1 vote
Update 9:29pm Eastern. 76 percent of Dem precincts reporting…Obama declared winner by FNC…and NBC…
Update 9:11pm Eastern. On the Dem side…
Senator Barack Obama : 33.88%
Senator John Edwards : 31.84%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.60%
What’s the deal with the deal rumors? Lefty blog Iowa Independent reports:
It seems that the under-the-radar caucus night dealmaking first reported by Iowa Independent last night may be even more complicated than once thought, according to additional reports from sources on the ground across the state.
Two well-placed sources told Iowa Independent last night that Gov. Bill Richardson’s campaign plans to direct their supporters to Sen. Barack Obama in precincts where their candidate does not reach the 15% threshold for viability.
Today, more sources have come forward to tell Iowa Independent that some supporters of Sen. Barack Obama have been directed to swing delegates to Gov. Bill Richardson in certain counties and precincts. Sources confirm that in at least three counties, Obama campaign field organizers have told their supporters to drive support to Richardson. The three confirmed counties are all likely Obama strongholds, and each county will assign a relatively high number of delegates tonight. We have decided not to list the counties by name to protect sources’ anonymity.
Obama activists in certain other counties denied receiving instructions for Richardson-Obama vote-swapping. We have heard similar rumors about precinct-specific deals between Obama and Sen. Joe Biden, although we have been unable to confirm them.
Here are the denials.
Update 9:03pm Eastern. McCain and Ron Paul neck and neck at 12 and 11 percent respectively.
Update 8:56pm Eastern. With 15 percent of precincts reporting, Fox projects win for Huckabee.
Romney with Chris Wallace for reax. “This is a 50-inning ball game. Congrats to Mike and we’ll go on to New Hampshire.”
Update 8:51pm Eastern. McCain is on Fox praising Huckabee; attributes Huck’s success to his debate performances.
Early results coming in…Huck is up; Dems are neck and neck and neck.
Update 8:27pm Eastern. A Democrat caucusgoer yells “Troops out of Iraq now!” Another caucusgoer says Hillary’s running in third place at Precinct 53.
Update 8:04pm Eastern. C-SPAN is showing the opening statement of Jim Sutton, Democrat Precinct 53 Caucus temporary chairman. He’s filibustering for the camera. A caucusgoer jibes: “Jim, move it along!”
“Are you ready to cha-cha?” Nominations being taken for permanent caucus chair.
I’m not a gambling woman, but if you want to weigh in with your predictions, feel free.
Scott Elliott at Election Projection shares his:
Mike Huckabee – 30%
Mitt Romney – 19%
Fred Thompson – 18%
Barack Obama – 38%
John Edwards – 29%
Hillary Clinton – 25%
Who’ll still be around next week? Allah peers into his crystal ball.
Rich Lowry lays out various optimal scenarios.
And via Intrade (hat tip – FR)…
Richelieu at the Weekly Standard gives it to Obama by a lot and Huckabee by a sliver.