Over the weekend, one of Mickey Kaus’s readers proposed that shamnesty opponents use YouTube to deliver a message to open-borders senators up for re-election. Bryan and I whipped up our first one–a quick, straightforward Hot Air negative ad with Lindsey Graham’s name on it:

Muchas gracias, Señor Graham (click to play):

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Here again, via NRO, are the 12 senators who will be critical in deciding the fate of shamnesty:

The following 12 senators are leaning against the bill itself but so far are leaning toward the cloture motion — which means, in reality, that they would be helping pass the amnesty, because if the bill comes to a final vote, it will pass. These are the Senators whose decisions will likely determine whether the amnesty passes or not:

Bond (R-Mo.)

Bingaman (D-N.M.)

Burr (R-N.C.)

Boxer (D-Calif.)

Cochran (R-Miss.)

Conrad (D-N.D.)

Ensign (R-Nev.)

Levin (D-Mich.)

Gregg (R-N.H.)

Nelson (D-Neb.)

Hatch (R-Utah)

Webb (D-Va.).

***

Update: The very latest on the wobblers.

Update: According to Numbers USA, this is the amendment list should cloture pass (prepare for the worst):

Democrat Amendments

Dodd-Menendez S.A. 1199: would increase the annual cap on green cards for parents and extend the parent visitor visa.

Webb S.A. 1313: Community ties for [amnesty]

Baucus-Tester S.A. 1236: would strike all reference[s] to REAL ID.

Sanders-Grassley S.A. 1332 : prohibits companies that have announced mass lay-offs from receiving any new visas, unless these companies could prove that overall employment at their companies would not be reduced by these lay-offs.

Byrd-Gregg-Cochran S.A. 1344: adds a $500 fee to obtain [amnesty] and sets aside the revenues collected in order to fund border and interior enforcement.

Menendez-Obama-Feingold S.A. 1317: increases family points in merit system

Brown S.A. 1340: requires that before employers can be approved to employ Y-1 workers, they must have listed the specific job opportunity with the state employment service agency.

McCaskill S.A. 1468: increases ban on federal contracts, grants or cooperative agreements to employers who are repeat violators of hiring immigrants who are not authorized to work

Levin-Brownback S.A.1486: gives access to Iraqis to apply for refugee status under existing U.S. law.

Leahy S.A. 1386: protect scholars who have been persecuted in their home countries on account of their beliefs, scholarship, or identity.

Schumer: provides for tamper-proof biometric social security cards

Boxer S.A. 1198: reduces Y visa cap by number of Y workers who overstay

Republican Amendments

Alexander S.A. 1161: requires DHS and the Department of State to notify a foreign embassy when one of their nationals has become a U.S. citizen

Bond S.A. 1255: prohibits green cards for [illegal aliens granted amnesty]

Coleman S.A. 1473: outlaws state and local policies that prevent public officials including police and health and safety workers (except for emergency medical assistance) from inquiring about the immigration status of those they serve if there is “probable cause” to believe the individual being questioned is undocumented.

Domenici S.A. 1335/1258: increases Federal judgeships

Ensign S.A. 1490: redetermines work history for current beneficiaries of social security depending on their citizenship status

Graham S.A. 1465: enforcement. Still being drafted.

Grassley-Baucus-Obama S.A. 1441: strikes and replaces Title III on employer enforcement

Hutchinson S.A. 1440: changes the “touchback” requirement from the time of applying for adjustment of status, as it currently stands in the Senate proposed bill, to the time of applying for the Z visa. Increases the number of individuals required to touchback

Thune S.A. 1174: prevents [illegal aliens] from [being granted amnesty] until all triggers have been met.

Chambliss S.A. 1318: Totalization agreements

Isakson S.A. 1282: Preemption/Home Depot

Graham: Criminal penalties/mandatory minimums for overstays