Automatic Data Processing is a payroll giant that cuts checks to employees. The company publishes a national employment report with Macroeconomic Advisers. Its latest stats show that the nation lost 10,000 private sector jobs last month. It’s not what economists expected. Via the WSJ:
Economists had expected ADP to report a jobs gain of 17,000 in August. The estimated change in employment for July was revised to a gain of 37,000 from an increase of 42,000 first reported. The ADP survey tallies only private-sector jobs, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payroll data, to be released Friday, include government workers. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect that continued layoffs of government workers hired temporarily for the Census will mean a drop of 110,000 jobs from total August nonfarm payrolls. Among those economists forecasting private-sector jobs within the BLS data, the median projection is for a gain of just 28,000.
The ADP number may cause some forecasters to change their Friday expectations. The August unemployment rate is projected to edge up to 9.6% from 9.5% in July.
The reasons for weak job growth? The WSJ cites “market volatility, regulatory uncertainty and weak demand has curtailed economic growth” and “business concerns on regulations, taxes and future health-care costs, plus job mismatch,” and lack of demand.
A separate jobs report by Challenger is getting positive spin: “Announced U.S. Job Cuts Fell 55% From Year Ago.” But: “While companies are cutting fewer workers from payrolls, larger job gains are needed to bolster consumer spending and sustain the recovery. Waning demand and concern over the economic outlook are causing companies and policy makers to cut their forecasts for growth.”
Related: Results from an economists’ survey show that most favor extension of the Bush tax cuts on capital gains and dividends. And this:
Departing Obama economic adviser Christine Romer digs in: White House economist calls for more stimulus.