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War in Donbass

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Some interesting estimates of the numbers of foreign fighters that participated in the Donbass War from 2014-2019 from a report [PDF] by the Soufan Center. (h/t Kholmogorov)
Putin has just signed a law on simplified citizenship for residents of the LDNR. Any person with LDNR residency documents now has the right to apply for Russian citizenship, and can expect an answer within three months. Citizenship is immediately conferred upon a positive decision. Comments: 1. Fundamentally, this is the humanitarian thing to do,... Read More
The second round of the Ukrainian elections are this Sunday. * Zelensky is almost certainly going to win (PredictIt has had him at ~95% for weeks now). It looks like he is going to blow Poroshenko out, probably something like Zelensky 67% vs. Poroshenko 30%. * Unless plans change I'll be discussing the Ukrainian elections... Read More
Broke: Russians downed MH17 so Russia must pay reparations, withdraw from the Ukraine, Putler must go to the Hague. Woke: Muh Ukrainian false flag. *scribbles 5,000 words on obscure alt media webzine that no-one will read* Bespoke: Russians downed MH17 and Russia must face up to it like a civilized, Western country (i.e. no apologies,... Read More
Israel Shamir argues that Pavel Grudinin doing relatively well east of the Urals - then declining in the (much more populated) European Russia - constitutes evidence of fraud. This is unlikely to be true, since all the statisticians who regularly analyze Russian electoral fraud - needless to say, virtually all of them anti-Putin - agree... Read More
Since the Russian election is taking place on the anniversary of Crimea's incorporation into Russia - an intentional play to increase turnout - now is as good a time as any to reflect on the complete failure of the Kremlin's Ukraine policy. The Adepts of Putin's "Clever Plan" have predicted all twelve of the Ukraine's... Read More
* Blog status: Main posts in the last couple of weeks: RationalWiki Hagiography Colonize Space… With Nukes IQ in Time and Space Russia Elections 2018: The Political Compass The Rybka Affair * Large bunch of interesting books that have come out recently. Heiner Rindermann with a huge (592 pages) academic synthesis of research on IQ/GDPcc... Read More
This is one possible interpretation of a recent report in Vedomosti, which analyzed a Russian Ministry of Defense tender for military insurance for the years 2018-2019. Included within was detailed Russian military mortality statistics for the 2012-2016 period, lifting the lid on a veil of secrecy on such matters since 2010. 2005 2012 2013 2014... Read More
Famous Sputnik i Pogrom designed banner from 2014 that still adorns many pro-Novorossiya sites.
The figures for Russia are from Levada, those for Ukraine are from KMIS. The basic story is that there was a (mutual) collapse in Ukraine-Russia views of the other country around 2014, which has remained steady since.
I don't follow many people on YouTube, since it's not really my format, but EmperorTigerstar is one of the few people I make an exception for. Not only has he mapped all the classics - WW2, WW1, Napoleonic Wars, history of Europe and the Roman Empire - but also plenty of relatively less well known... Read More
On March 15, the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, headed by Alexander Turchinov, a hardliner who launched the "Anti-Terrorist Operation" as the interim President after Euromaidan, signed off on the legalization of the Donbass blockade, and transmitted a request to Ukraine's Central Bank to finalize a plan to put sanctions on Russian banks... Read More
It has emerged that on February 27, the PM of the DNR Alexander Zakharchenko issued an edict fixing the borders of the DNR at the current frontline. The document, posted at the website of the DNR's Ministry of State Security, illegalizes border crossings between the DNR and "territories under the temporary authority of Ukrainian state... Read More
This is in response to the blockade of coal shipments from the LDNR into Ukraine by right wing militants, who oppose absolutely anything that helps finance the republics. The resulting energy blockade threatens the stability of what appears to be a surprisingly vigorous Ukrainian economic recovery, and puts Poroshenko - with his record low ratings... Read More
Over the years I have studiously avoided commentary on MH17 because of the banal fact that I am not an expert on plane crash forensics. The official Dutch inquiry that has just released its findings says that it was downed by a Buk missile that came from rebel-controlled territory. Many serious people have come to... Read More
Another August, another war scare. Intermittent reports of Russian military forces "staging" near Ukraine. Are the guns about to honor the title of a famous history book once again? Almost certainly not. Or at least, not by Russia's hand. (1) Though you could play a drinking time for every mention of "Gleiwitz" in conjunction with... Read More
Just a collection of completely random, not very important news snippets. (1) Diplomats’ Dissent Bolsters Calls for U.S. Assault on Assad: For now, the Obama administration seems inclined to agree. A U.S. official who did not sign the memo but read it told Foreign Policy that the document was unlikely to influence Oval Office policy... Read More
One of the main thrusts of the Maidanist Ukrainian and Western information campaign against Russia during the Ukrainian conflict has beeen the allegation that the NAF (Novorossiyan Armed Forces) were mostly manned by Russian citizens or even the Russian military. This is not to say that there haven't been voices of dissent. For instance, Prof.... Read More
For those who missed this affair, the aptly urled Russian website bs-life.ru (Business Life) published a secret Kremlin directive to compensate the relatives of 2,000 Russian military KIA and 3,200 WIA . Alarm bells should have rung from the start. Start with the website. The design runs on a free, mass-use Joomla magazine template. I... Read More
The Guardian's Shaun Walker reports on the latest activities of Andrey Babitsky, the anti-Putin journalist who was fired from RFERL close to a year ago amidst a conspiracy of silence. Here is my full article on Babitsky's account of his work and departure from RFERL, including translations from an interview he did with a Czech... Read More
The second one in my new series. This one is substantially shorter, as will be most consequent sitreps. Gallup Has conducted a very comprehensive poll about attitudes in the EU, Russia, Ukraine, and the US to various aspects of the Ukrainian crisis. Here is the link to it. I will highlight the most important findings.... Read More
This is the first post in a new series that I intend to do in 1-2 week intervals every Friday. Just like Patrick Armstrong does with his RF Sitreps on Russia Insider, these sitreps are intended to cover both developments in the ongoing War in the Donbass.
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.