Pretty cool that the US has constructed a Blue Zone in its own capital. Although the 25,000 National Guardsmen are apparently unarmed, which suggests that the Dems don't actually take MAGA terrorists seriously. But it's good theater. Or, I suppose it could be that THE PLAN is coming to fruition. Any hour now.
Prior to the 2020 US elections, I ran a predictions tournament. Given that the Electoral College has now formally voted, putting the matter to rest - at least so far as non-ideologues are concerned - it is now time to run the results. *** Best performance in terms of deviation of EC votes from Biden's... Read More
The EC vote threw up no surprises, without even a single faithless elector. I did tell you all not to expect miracles or get too invested in this idiotic drama, not least for the sake of your own mental health (or your financial health - if you took the 10% post-elections odds seriously). The screeching... Read More
Joe Biden's victory marks a return to Enlightenment principles of science and rationality, from which it was only temporarily diverted by the dark forces of populist reaction and retrogression represented by Donald Trump. It is good that the US is not an obscurantist theocracy such as Iran that exalts its political leaders into the ranks... Read More
In May 2018, Navalny wrote: Here are the latest "developments": The poor guy even had his perfume stolen. *** It is generally America's vassal states that have been tripping over themselves to recognize Biden as President-Elect before the courts or the electors have made their positions known. As did their puppets: But considering Navalny's record,... Read More
The world map of Biden "recognitions" is quite instructive. No surprise that the core BlueGov-aligned vassals are tripping over themselves to congratulate and celebrate, happy at the prospect of the gushing service they are preparing to mete out as opposed to their sullen compliance during the Trump years. More notable, though less remarkable if you... Read More
This post probably isn't going to make me many friends. Then again, if catering to various echo chambers was my main concern in life, I wouldn't be running this blog. So, did Biden win thanks to electoral fraud? My general impression is that many, if not all, electoral fraud arguments have been rather simplistic and... Read More
It's now pretty clear that Biden is going to be the next POTUS. The only moderately interesting question is how long before Trump concedes. Anti-climatic as the election was for those hoping for a Trump set or a 269-269 troll map, there is interesting analysis to be done on: The fraud question - did it... Read More
I discussed the elections, the political impact of coronavirus, and the likely course of US-Russian relations under a Biden vs. Trump Presidency with Vile Varangian. Twitter users Gaslight, Constantine, fashy zizek, Zero Schizo, and Calm European also took parts at various points in this 5 hour livestream.
The last election I watched with a Russian friend at the London School of Economics student room in 2016. The cope and seethe amongst those rootless cosmopolitans was out of this world, as the only Trump supporters in the room it was like being the physical embodiment of trollface.jpg. I don't expect to see a... Read More
Now one common objection, often made by Trump supporters, is that the overwhelmingly pro-Democrat class of hacks and data analysts is biased and ignorant of sentiment in the "Real America" and this colors their judgment, as it purportedly did in 2016*. Conversely, their liberal counterparts rejoinder that popular prediction markets, which are strongly out of... Read More
Make your predictions here. I want to do this in a standard way, so for your contribution to be counted: Navigate over to Color in the map (only red/blue, no toss ups or gradients) Click "share map" Click on the image URL and paste the link to the .png file Paste the png file into... Read More
Then, unsurprisingly, Biden would win. Recent IPSOS poll: Here is how this compares to the 2016 figures. Eyeballing, it looks like foreign perceptions of Trump have actually improved over the past four years, if from a low base. This goes against media rhetoric. *** Although the RussiaGaters will doubtless focus on Russia's figures, the reality... Read More
Reposting for relevance: Good for Hunter, the guy clearly knows how to have fun. Do the MAGA people really think any of the "Never Trump" voters will be swayed to vote against Biden because his wayward son got blown by some Chinese hooker? Really? Pretty lame if this is the best the Trump campaign was... Read More
The Virgin HCQ shill vs. the Chad Sputnik V respecter. Anyhow, this might have helped Trump by generating sympathy. But, given his not entirely undeserved reputation as a floomer, probably won't. Rallies are Trump's lifeblood, chances of him winning have surely plummeted just now. He's fat and 18 years older than BoJo, who was hospitalized.... Read More
Overall, solid performances from both Trump and Biden, they know their respective audiences. The people describing this as "shitshow" etc. seem to be under the mistaken impression this was supposed to be a debate. Both repeated their respective party line on the coronavirus. Trump lasered in from the "China Virus" angle, and mocked Biden for... Read More
If Russiagate fantasies were real and they had the vote in US elections - at least as suggested by this FOM poll. This is not to say that Russians like Trump - their short post-elections honeymoon was soon after undermined by Russiagate sanctions and foreign policy erraticism, such as the strikes on Russian mercenaries in... Read More
I am not going to stick my neck out with concrete predictions, except to the extent that I agree with the betting markets that it's close to 50/50 with the edge going to Biden. Trump has incumbent advantage, but Biden is not Hillary, so the two cancel out. Like it or not, blame for Corona... Read More
Is "brutal policewoman" Kamala really a bad pick in the midst of a Black crime epidemic? Can be relied upon to be loyal to the neoliberal order, while ticking all the diversity and woke boxes. I think the whining is Chapo and Trumpist cope. White lib boomers are going to lap this up. Anyhow, belated... Read More
The betting odds between Trump/Biden (~45-50% vs. 40%-45%) have stayed remarkable steady since Bernie got put out of his misery. However, there's been one remarkable shift. Whereas in 2016, support for Trump increased monotonically with age, more and more polls now appear to confirm that older people, especially Silents and Greatest are turning away from... Read More
So with both Bernie Sanders, Barack Obama, and - finally - Elizabeth Warren - having endorsed Joe Biden now is perhaps not the worst time to give my take on US politics in the Current Year. *** As I observed when I left the US in 2016, the bipolar party system had come under strain... Read More
Reddit has just quarantined The_Donald, the single biggest Trump support forum on the Internet. The_Donald played a critical role in the 2016 elections, helping generate a lot of the memetic momentum that propelled Trump to the Presidency. Considering his narrow margin of victory, it's entirely possible that Trump would have been stumped without The_Donald. True,... Read More
Here is the podcast: Robert Stark talks to Anatoly Karlin about Andrew Yang and The War on Normal People Robert Stark is a Yang supporter. You can check out his article "Andrew Yang and the Post-Nationalist Future" at Taki's Mag. Brandon Adamson (website) also participated, but unfortunately he was cut off due to technical problems... Read More
I looked at all the people with more than a 2% chance of becoming US President in 2020 according to PredictIt. There are some patterns here. Biden: Hasn't Tweeted since April 19. Not a credible contender, but honorary mention goes to:
It's been a month since I predicted that Andrew Yang would be more than just a meme. I wanted to check to see if this still holds true and that does seem to be the case. 1. He is on a steady 10% chance to take the Dem nomination at PredictIt. 2. He is getting... Read More
Here is who I predicted would institute basic income back in 2017: So, those first two are basically Trump!2019 and Commissar Kamala, respectively. Yang is not quite a plutocrat, so I'm not 100% sure he'll win. And his tech background he's more East Coast than Silicon Valley. But otherwise, that's his bio to a tee.... Read More
He is best known for championing Universal Basic Income, and loves to talk about AI and automation. This means that while he is a marginal candidate, he has the support of many transhumanists (even though he has not expressed any opinion on more radical transhumanist ideas such as radical life extension). His policies seem to... Read More
Without going into any precise numbers, my feeling is that Kamala Harris will win the Dem nomination, Trump will be impeached (but not convicted), and Harris will win the 2020 elections. Too many scandals (fair and fake) will be weighing Trump down, he'll lose Florida thanks to felons getting the vote, and the advantages of... Read More
I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.
One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.
Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.