The Iran War has been called off for the time being, but the threat of a renewed crisis and future escalation remain. The Iranian missile strikes on two US bases in Iraq provide updated data points on how such a clash will go. 1. The most important adjustment we need to make is that Iranian... Read More
PS. Events overtook my writing of this blog post. Looking forwards to a resolution of the Stealth Question and the Aircraft Carrier Question. How would an Iran War be fought? I already addressed this question on several occasions, most notably on The Road to World War III (see 2.c. The Persian Gulf), as well as... Read More
I am not an Iran expert, and will not pretend that I have magically become one in the past few days. Nor do I see much point in a detailed chronicle of the latest developments and Tweets - for that, there is, say, /r/SyrianCivilWar. Instead, I think it would be more productive to highlight a... Read More
There's one crucial difference, and not many people seem to recognize its importance. "ZOG" pretty much controls the US, which has recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital in defiance of the rest of the world (and 63% of US voters), curtailed its otherwise extensive freedom of speech protections by criminalizing the BDS movement, and whose Conservatism... Read More
All this brouhaha over Russiagate and to think that in the end it was Ukraine that did it... :) Anyhow: I am pretty sure this is a trap (for the Dems), who are initiating impeachment without even knowing what's on the damn transcript. It will be nice to see some questions on how exactly Hunter... Read More
So apparently the US decided to step up its sanctions on the evil mullahs and gas killing animal Assad by banning the popular multiplayer video game League of Legends in those countries. Anyhow, apart from illustrating the schizophrenia of the USG - do they expect gamers to rise up against those regimes and do what... Read More
Discuss the recent Iranian attack (or "attack") on the oil tankers, and the recent Iranian shootdown of the $200 million American drone (allegedly over international airspace - Iran denies it) here. *** I have discussed the consequences of a major US - Iran war in previous posts. I don't have much more to add at... Read More
The NYT has reported that US cyberwar unit has placed malware in Russia's electric grid that could potentially shut it down. It also alleges that Trump has been kept out of the loop on this decision. My short take is that this is a nothingburger aimed primarily at US domestic consumption. We know that there... Read More
I did infer that he is redpilled on all of this stuff in my review of his book, though his interpretation - like Pinker's - is strongly liberal/paternalistic. (Which is perfectly fine and internally consistent). He has definitively confirmed that. This has created quite the ruckus, with Angela D. Saini - author of ominous sounding... Read More
Russian citizen Oleg Tishchenko to face charges in US for buying fighter jet manuals to use in a flight simulation game DCS World after extradition from Georgia. It appears that Eagle Dynamics has kicked their employee to the dogs, claiming that Tishchenko was acting in a "purely private context and for his own personal interests."... Read More
The judge in question was an Obama-era minority appointee. This may have played a role in her imposing the maximum sentence of 18 months requested by the prosecution, despite the ridiculousness of the case. reiner Tor comments:
This translates to nine months plus the nine months already served, which is the full length of time that the prosecution asked for (probation office asked for 12 months). Here is how this stacks up against old FARA prosecutions: 18 months is very fair and proportionate. /s As I noted at that time: "Consequently, if... Read More
It's been a month since I predicted that Andrew Yang would be more than just a meme. I wanted to check to see if this still holds true and that does seem to be the case. 1. He is on a steady 10% chance to take the Dem nomination at PredictIt. 2. He is getting... Read More
So Russiagate 2017 ends in Muellergate 2019. As was pretty clear at the start - as people such as Glenn Greenwald, Aaron Mate, Robert Parry, and Alexander Mercouris have been writing all these years. Manafort, its most prominent casualty, had worked to draw the Ukraine in the West's orbit (hilariously, he kind of belatedly succeeded).... Read More
In my 2011 series comparing life in the US, Britain, and Russia, I wrote the following about university admissions: Overall, university admissions are probably the most meritocratic in the UK. In Russia, though the system is supposed to be meritocratic, it is skewed by corruption, for it is not unknown for applicants to bribe admissions... Read More
It is pretty evident that Chinese naval power is growing by leaps and bounds, with a lot of qualitative literature about it: Chinese military procurement ($70 billion) now half the rate of American ($155 billion). Adjust for purchasing power parity, and it should be virtually equal. If China is ahead deploying Railguns, electromag catapults and... Read More
He is best known for championing Universal Basic Income, and loves to talk about AI and automation. This means that while he is a marginal candidate, he has the support of many transhumanists (even though he has not expressed any opinion on more radical transhumanist ideas such as radical life extension). His policies seem to... Read More
Gallup: Majority of Americans Now Consider Russia a Critical Threat Relative to average Russia disapproval of 73%, this reaches 80% amongst Democrats, 84% amongst liberals, and 84 amongst college graduates. So basically there was a major shift around the 2016, when Democrats started becoming much worse disposed towards Russia, while Republican attitudes - especially young... Read More
Without going into any precise numbers, my feeling is that Kamala Harris will win the Dem nomination, Trump will be impeached (but not convicted), and Harris will win the 2020 elections. Too many scandals (fair and fake) will be weighing Trump down, he'll lose Florida thanks to felons getting the vote, and the advantages of... Read More
But for all that, the US is remarkably civil. To date, 10 people have DIED in the French yellow vests protests. That's a Charlottesville every few days. Meanwhile, the US is having a national scandal over some people shouting and sneering at each other. *** Moreover, now that we're on an Americanophile tangent: There's some... Read More
I have always been fascinated by the blogger Audacious Epigone's theory about Generation Zyklon - the surprising and counterintuitive idea that America's youngest cohort are rejective progressive propaganda in the schools and media, and becoming as "based" as their Silent forefathers. It's an important question, after all, and one that will determine to what extent... Read More
A few months ago Ron Unz, suggested I write an article about Bill Browder and the Magnitsky Act. I said I would think about it, but that I was not the most qualified person for the job. I have never investigated this affair deeply myself, so unless I was to spend a few days if... Read More
In recent days, Russia has arrested the American spy Paul Whelan. This is widely viewed as retribution for the prosecution of Maria Butina. Perhaps the kremlins were finally cajoled into action by China's example. (Main theory making the rounds in Russiagate circles is that it is a ploy to arrange an exchange with Butina back... Read More
What do the current legal travails of a Russian "oligarch" (he has zero power) in Monaco actually have to do with him having gotten involved in a real estate transaction ("money laundering") with Bad Orange Man a decade ago? Let's have a look at housing prices in Florida: As one can see, they did indeed... Read More
Now that the midterms have panned out as the predictions market expected, here's what we can now expect: *** Good Things: 1. It was mostly GOPe cucks getting slaughtered, not Trumpist nationalists (e.g. Steve King stayed, though on a razor thin margin). At least this means that nationalism has real staying power. 2. Cabinet picks... Read More
The Center for Immigration Studies appears to have had a rather productive October. Apart from their report on illegal immigrant births, they have also produced a report on general immigration to the US as of 2016. What's striking, though, is the collapse of Mexican emigration, though Central America has increased its share.
A recent Center for Immigration Studies report estimates that 297,073 of the 3,971,146 births in the US in 2014 accrued to illegal immigrants, or 7.5% of the total. This is a primarily Latino phenomenon. This is obvious just from the five states which, at more than 10%, have the highest percentage of births accruing to... Read More
I just had a look at the website of the Pittsburgh "Tree of Life" synagogue that Robert Bowers shot up. Here is what it has to say about Israel's borders: In other words, the outlook of their rabbis is identical to that of Julia Ioffe, who condemns Trumpists as anti-Semitic nationalists for their anti-immigration stances... Read More
From the latest DoJ indictment of Russian trolls [pdf]: That said, I don't quite see how this kind of "Internet research" qualifies as conspiring to "commit offense against" or "defraud" the United States (18 U.S. Code § 371).
First, the US - along with other high IQ countries - is one of the very safest countries for young women in the world. Rape in civilized countries is an order of magnitude or two lower than in the Third World. College campuses, where people are generally brighter than average, can be expected to be... Read More
I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.
One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.
Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.