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Fertility

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Time for this year's update, now that 2019 preliminary stats are out. I am not going to write much for this one, since there's nothing new or interesting. For the most part, updating the graphs should suffice. For extended commentary, you'd be better off reading the last one. Absolute numbers of births are back at... Read More
Gebremedhin, Samson. 2015. “Multiple Births in Sub-Saharan Africa: Epidemiology, Postnatal Survival, and Growth Pattern.” Twin Research and Human Genetics: The Official Journal of the International Society for Twin Studies 18 (1): 100–107. The rate of multiple births in Sub-Saharan Africa is 1.7x that of European levels (h/t Emil Kirkegaard): The multiple birth rate in SSA... Read More
As I have written in prior posts, Russian demographics continues to improve as it has throughout the Putin era (Russian Demographics in 2019). Life expectancy is going up very rapidly, constituting a new record of 73.6 years as of the first eight months of this year. Deaths from external causes continue to plummet, including homicide... Read More
As commenter Reykur recently pointed out - citing the work of the blogger denalt, there is a rather curious phenomenon occurring in a few ethnic Russian regions, where rural fertility has exploded in the past decade. As you can see from the above graph, there has been a rather strange divergence between rural fertility rates... Read More
Sweden (Yes!) comes in for a hard time with the Alt Right and the /pol/ crowd on the Internet where it has basically become a meme. However, there's something Sweden - and the Nordics - are doing right.
Spolaore, Enrico, and Romain Wacziarg. 2019. “Fertility and Modernity.” Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research. As hbd*chick points out, this suggests that the fertility transition in Europe was substantially independent of the Industrial Revolution, and was a process of cultural diffusion that emanated from France (where it began before 1830).
In one of my posts on the Age of Malthusian Industrialism, I pointed out that groups such as the Amish and the Mormons will be some of the first to become saturated with genotypic breeders: Now, here is a map of how this may look like, courtesy of /pol/*:
Recent paper (h/t @whyvert). Kim, Yuri, and James J. Lee. 2018. “The Genetics of Human Fertility.” Current Opinion in Psychology 27 (August): 41–45.
I keep citing Twitter demographer @Cicerone1973. I don't know if he is a professional analyst, but his own projections of Russian TFR and LE usually match mine to the decimal point, so I am sure that he knows what he's doing. And what I try to do for Russia he does for most of the... Read More
Last year’s summary: Russian Demographics in 2018 [2016; 2014]. Preliminary data for 2018 is in.
Female earnings decline after the birth of their first child. But according to a new paper released a few days ago: Kleven et al. (2018): Child Penalties Across Countries ... it happens to markedly different extents across different countries and cultural blocs. Robert Dur summarizes: The earnings hit is surprisingly well correlated to public opinion... Read More
In my third post on the Age of Malthusian Industrialism, I suggested: Happily, it looks like some people have already started doing that. Barban, Nicola et al. (2017) - Genome-wide analysis identifies 12 loci influencing human reproductive behavior Here's a very interesting graph from the paper:
Cicerone comments: All valid, excellent points. The UK was still a bit in front of Germany, though I agree that it's really France that stands out.
Brockhaus and Efron Encyclopedic Dictionary (1890-1907) on illegitimate births: Illegitimate births / 100 births in Russia in 1892: St. Petersburg 15.92 Smolenskaya 1.93 Moscow 13.65 Kazan 1.90 Lifland 6.36 Mogilev 1.89 Estland 4.46 Vladimirskaya 1.86 Arkhangelsk 4.33 Kharkiv 1.84 Kovno 4.12 Tverskaya 1.82 Perm 4.07 Olonets 1.79 Yaroslavskaya 4.03 Kaluzhskaya 1.75 Pskovskaya 3.98 Bessarabian 1.74... Read More
Hot on the heels of the Center for Immigration Studies report comes a study from the PEW polling organization, which estimates that there were 250,000 births to illegal immigrants in the US in 2016.
A recent Center for Immigration Studies report estimates that 297,073 of the 3,971,146 births in the US in 2014 accrued to illegal immigrants, or 7.5% of the total. This is a primarily Latino phenomenon. This is obvious just from the five states which, at more than 10%, have the highest percentage of births accruing to... Read More
Global Times: China may reward families with more children next year: demographers. It's funny to see China going from a rigid One Child Policy to Russian/Hungarian-style pro-natalism within the space of no more than four years. However, such turnarounds aren't exactly unprecedented in the history of Communist regimes. Mao was a pro-natalist. The One Child... Read More
Partridge, Emily et al. - 2017 - An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb *** I have been ad
Now that we have established that immigration is not much good, let's take a look at another component undergirding our transition to Idiocracy - the differential fertility rates of different IQ groups. This is a highly contentious topic, and not just on account of the usual political kurfuffles, but also on real disagreements as to... Read More
When I posted a 2007 map of the share of European children born out of wedlock from Reddit to Twitter, it generated considerably discussion, including a discussion at Razib Kan's blog.
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.