New Levada poll shows Russians decreasingly willing to identify Russia as a European country: From 52% in 2008 (vs. 36%) to 29% in 2021 (vs. 64%). However, perhaps even more tellingly, this percentage goes DOWN with age. Just 23% of 18-24 y/o's identify Russia as Europe, vs. 33% of 55%+ y/o's. Could it be that... Read More
This is via /r/MapPorn (in turn, I think, via /pol). Overall, the map strikes me as quite accurate. Portugal didn't strike me anywhere near as Black as the UK, I would have put it at not much more than 1%. I think France is a bit too high, probably because it includes the overseas departments.... Read More
Interesting map of European approval of China, though being mostly from 2018/19 (see Sources) this was from before the coronavirus. But I don't expect the general patterns to have changed, the countries already disposed to think well of China wouldn't have had their expectations shattered - possibly, even the converse - while the more Sinophobic... Read More
According to phylogenetic analyses, the oldest Indo-European common story features a Smith selling his soul to the Devil in return for power, before tricking him out of his prize. Which, as a frand observed, later came to be known as the tale of Faust. So Europe is a Faustian civilization in the most direct sense.
This is according to the latest data by criminologist Matt Ashby. This is a stunning reversal from a century ago, where contemporary "Core Europe" (Britain, France, Germany, the Low Countries, and Scandinavia) had homicide rates of 1-2/100,000 vs. around 5/100,000 in places like Italy, Finland, Japan, and Russia. The one good thing about this is... Read More
You can read the report with all the polls here. Of note: 1. Slovakia is the "Russophile" outlier. 2. Results are very largely the same for a conflict putting the US against China (pp. 10) Macron is currently making some moves to normalize EU-Russia relations, which hasn't been covered much because the MSM would much... Read More
Spolaore, Enrico, and Romain Wacziarg. 2019. “Fertility and Modernity.” Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research. As hbd*chick points out, this suggests that the fertility transition in Europe was substantially independent of the Industrial Revolution, and was a process of cultural diffusion that emanated from France (where it began before 1830).
The most notable developments in the 2019 European elections have been: 1. The continued collapse of the center-left (Social Democrats) and center-right (Christian Democrats), the traditional lynchpins of postwar European politics. The Left is also in stagnation, with Corbyn's Labour, Greece's Syriza, Spain's Podemos, and France's Melenchon all having done poorly. 2. The continued rise... Read More
I keep citing Twitter demographer @Cicerone1973. I don't know if he is a professional analyst, but his own projections of Russian TFR and LE usually match mine to the decimal point, so I am sure that he knows what he's doing. And what I try to do for Russia he does for most of the... Read More
One question people sometimes ask is how the intellectual/cultural/scientific output of the Byzantine Empire compared to Western Europe and/or Italy, its most advanced major region for most of the medieval period. How do we answer this? Quantify! Quantify! Quantify! In this post, I will attempt to provide a short "cliometrics"-based answer. Buringh, Eltjo, and Jan... Read More
I'll use this example of N.N. Taleb reaching muh African Einsteins levels of wokeness here to answer a common counter to critics of race differences in IQ. North European backwardness was a function of late demographic development; in those regions, intensive agriculture became technologically possible relatively late: Michael Mitterauer, "Why Europe?" Janet Martin, "Medieval Russia,... Read More
Just discovered this 2016 poll (Dalia) on percentage of people identifying as LGBT in Europe. Largely unsurprising. As I keep insisting, there's something with Poland. 2.5x as many LGBT amongst youth as in Hungary. I think my prediction that Poland will legalize gay marriage by 2028 might just turn out correct. What did surprise me... Read More
Here is how emigre journalist Bershidsky (who likes mass immigration to Europe but not to Saudi Arabia) sees the end of history (Russia edition): So Russia's fate is to be a mineral resource depot, dumping ground for Third Worlders, and cannon fodder for the retirement home and taxpayer funded mansion for Somalis better known as... Read More
I'll go back to posting proper material soon enough, but in the interim, here's another open thread. *** * Glenn Greenwald: Trump DoJ prosecution of Assange is unprecedented threat to press freedoms but many vindictive Democrats support it * Atlantic: Declining marginal returns to science? In past few decades importance of new discoveries fell even... Read More
There's a few theories that I push over and over again when discussions on European social trends come up: Communism was a "deep freezer" that conserved antediluvian ("based" in our lingvo) social attitudes in Eastern Europe, at least relative to countries under the American sphere of influence. These attitudes express themselves particularly strongly on LGBT,... Read More
So EU citizens can no longer insult the Prophet Mohammed: Obviously that isn't going to be applied to insulting Christian figures anytime soon. To the contrary, those few European countries that still have blasphemy on the books are fast doing away with it. Here is how Talha says things might look like in a (real)... Read More
Via /r/europe. Is Poland even a Slavic country? The most "based" (not to mention correct) countries are Eastern Europe minus Poland, Portugal, and the Brits and Irish. Portugal is surprising. The usual explanation for why they don't have a lot of Muslims - just 0.4% of the population, which is a basically Visegrad number -... Read More
From the most recent Eurobarometer poll [see also other countries]: Strange patterns, at first glance. Even just a few years ago, this map would have been unrecognizable, with East European countries viewing Russia with relatively greater hostility than Western Europe. So what changed? Well, what I suspect happened is a European version of the return... Read More
Convenient summary h/t Ivan Vladimirov. Ireland and Iceland look to be in the best shape. While Ireland is one of Europe's most religious countries, Iceland is one of the least ("0% of Icelanders aged 25 or younger believe world was created by God"). Adjusting for fertility non-EU immigrants also substantially smooths - indeed, probably almost... Read More
German tech guy notes that Europe barely has a presence in the tech sector. Hardware dominated by East Asians; Europeans used to do this, but Phillips, Nokia had their heyday many years ago. Internet infrastructure (e.g. cloud, DNS) dominated by the United States, though China has its own self-contained ecosystem. Platforms (operating systems, social networks,... Read More
PEW has just made three different projections of the Islamic percentage of Europe's population in 2050. Map of Muslim share of each European country today and in 2015 (High scenario). Here are the assumptions behind each of them: Low: All migration into Europe stops from 2016. Muslims still increase from 4.9% to 7.4% by 2050... Read More
In the spirit of Foreign Policy's map of Chinese stereotypes about Europe, I did the same thing for Russia using the autocomplete to "why [country/people]..." in Google.ru. Vast swathes of Eastern Europe are dominated by Russians asking why the local denizens don't like them, so to make room for more interesting stereotypes, I just colored... Read More
Cartographic guide to the European immigration crisis with each country's estimated cuck rating. Pink = Go back to your cuckshed, Sven! Red = Very Cucked. Light Red = Soon to get cucked. Light Green = "So bad even wartorn refugees think it sucks," according to the Taiwanese. Being based is good but is not that... Read More
The Ukrainian feminist group FEMEN organize yet another topless action. Life in plastic ain't fantastic - and they will try to prove it through the power of their boobs. Sasha Pyatnitskaya covers the story for Komsomolskaya Pravda. The restless maidens of FEMEN, a Ukrainian feminist group, staged yet another of their topless protests. This time... Read More
I just remembered I'd made some in 2012. It's time to see how they went, plus make predictions for the coming year. Of course I failed to predict the biggest thing of them all: The hacking that made me throw in the towel on Sublime Oblivion (remember that?), but with the silver lining that I... Read More
Pomeranz, Kenneth – The Great Divergence: China, Europe, and the Making of the Modern World Economy (2001) Category: economy, history, world systems; Rating: 5*/5 Summary: Brad DeLong's review; The Bactra Review; Are Coal and Colonies Really Crucial? It's a rare book that not only vastly informs you on a particular issue, but in so doing... Read More
After a year long hiatus from interviewing Russia watchers, I decided it was time to get back in the game. As it happens, my attention first fell on a Europe blogger – and not just any incisive, counter-intuitive scribbler whose intellect and analytical acumen is matched only by the number of themes he is prepared... Read More
Happy new year to all Sublime Oblivion readers! This blog wouldn't be what it is without you. In fact, I'd have probably abandoned it after a month or two after a couple of posts as I did with my first blog in 2006. So please keep on reading and commenting. BTW, the image above is... Read More
There is a wide divergence of views on Russia's economic future. The pessimists project near zero growth (e.g. SWP, Guriev & Zhuravskaya), or even a renewed collapse if Europe goes haywire. The inventor of the BRIC's concept (and Russia bull) Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs believes it will manage to eke out growth of 7%,... Read More
One of the staples of the neocon-Russophobe narrative is that Russia is alone in the world, utterly bereft of friends, left only with the likes of Nicaragua and Nauru to indulge it in its anachronistic "imperial fantasies". Not really. Conflating the West with the world won't change the fact that amongst the peoples of China,... Read More
I enjoyed the egg-throwing scenes from Ukraine's Rada on the ratification of the gas-for-fleet deal with Russia as much as anyone. It also reflected the polarized commentary on the interwebs. The Ukrainian patriot-bloggers get their knickers in a sweaty twist. The academic beigeocrat Alexander Motyl (he of "Why Russia is Really Weak" fame some four... Read More
Though there are plenty of caveats and exceptions, it is safe to generalize that predictions of what the "next war" was going to be like before 1914 were completely inaccurate. The Great War would not be the quick, clean affair typical of the wars of German unification in the 1860's-70's or the sensationalist literature of... Read More
I am going to start off by looking at Europe, defined as the region under the influence of Western Christianity and/or the European Union (not Russia or Turkey, which will be covered in a later Eurasia Report). Demographic problems: aging, low fertility and Eurabia? The unsustainability of the modern welfare state? Cultural decline & reaction... Read More
I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.
One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.
Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.