You can read the report with all the polls here. Macron is currently making some moves to normalize EU-Russia relations, which hasn't been covered much because the MSM would much rather blast "Putler puppet" Trump and the now-departed Salvini for it. The actual explanation is a lot more banal. It has nothing to do with... Read More
Spolaore, Enrico, and Romain Wacziarg. 2019. “Fertility and Modernity.” Working Paper Series. National Bureau of Economic Research. As hbd*chick points out, this suggests that the fertility transition in Europe was substantially independent of the Industrial Revolution, and was a process of cultural diffusion that emanated from France (where it began before 1830).
I keep citing Twitter demographer @Cicerone1973. I don't know if he is a professional analyst, but his own projections of Russian TFR and LE usually match mine to the decimal point, so I am sure that he knows what he's doing. And what I try to do for Russia he does for most of the... Read More
One question people sometimes ask is how the intellectual/cultural/scientific output of the Byzantine Empire compared to Western Europe and/or Italy, its most advanced major region for most of the medieval period. How do we answer this? Quantify! Quantify! Quantify! In this post, I will attempt to provide a short "cliometrics"-based answer. Buringh, Eltjo, and Jan... Read More
Here is how emigre journalist Bershidsky (who likes mass immigration to Europe but not to Saudi Arabia) sees the end of history (Russia edition): So Russia's fate is to be a mineral resource depot, dumping ground for Third Worlders, and cannon fodder for the retirement home and taxpayer funded mansion for Somalis better known as... Read More
There's a few theories that I push over and over again when discussions on European social trends come up: Communism was a "deep freezer" that conserved antediluvian ("based" in our lingvo) social attitudes in Eastern Europe, at least relative to countries under the American sphere of influence. These attitudes express themselves particularly strongly on LGBT,... Read More
So EU citizens can no longer insult the Prophet Mohammed: Obviously that isn't going to be applied to insulting Christian figures anytime soon. To the contrary, those few European countries that still have blasphemy on the books are fast doing away with it. Here is how Talha says things might look like in a (real)... Read More
German tech guy notes that Europe barely has a presence in the tech sector. Hardware dominated by East Asians; Europeans used to do this, but Phillips, Nokia had their heyday many years ago. Internet infrastructure (e.g. cloud, DNS) dominated by the United States, though China has its own self-contained ecosystem. Platforms (operating systems, social networks,... Read More
PEW has just made three different projections of the Islamic percentage of Europe's population in 2050. Takes: 1. I think actual policy will be between #2 and #3, i.e. #2.5. (Recall when Merkel said multiculturalism was a failure? What a change half a decade makes
The Ukrainian feminist group FEMEN organize yet another topless action. Life in plastic ain't fantastic - and they will try to prove it through the power of their boobs. Sasha Pyatnitskaya covers the story for Komsomolskaya Pravda. The restless maidens of FEMEN, a Ukrainian feminist group, staged yet another of their topless protests. This time... Read More
I just remembered I'd made some in 2012. It's time to see how they went, plus make predictions for the coming year. Of course I failed to predict the biggest thing of them all: The hacking that made me throw in the towel on Sublime Oblivion (remember that?), but with the silver lining that I... Read More
Pomeranz, Kenneth – The Great Divergence: China, Europe, and the Making of the Modern World Economy (2001) Category: economy, history, world systems; Rating: 5*/5 Summary: Brad DeLong's review; The Bactra Review; Are Coal and Colonies Really Crucial?
Happy new year to all Sublime Oblivion readers! This blog wouldn't be what it is without you. In fact, I'd have probably abandoned it after a month or two after a couple of posts as I did with my first blog in 2006. So please keep on reading and commenting. BTW, the image above is... Read More
There is a wide divergence of views on Russia's economic future. The pessimists project near zero growth (e.g. SWP, Guriev & Zhuravskaya), or even a renewed collapse if Europe goes haywire. The inventor of the BRIC's concept (and Russia bull) Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs believes it will manage to eke out growth of 7%,... Read More
One of the staples of the neocon-Russophobe narrative is that Russia is alone in the world, utterly bereft of friends, left only with the likes of Nicaragua and Nauru to indulge it in its anachronistic "imperial fantasies". Not really. Conflating the West with the world won't change the fact that amongst the peoples of China,... Read More
I enjoyed the egg-throwing scenes from Ukraine's Rada on the ratification of the gas-for-fleet deal with Russia as much as anyone. It also reflected the polarized commentary on the interwebs. The Ukrainian patriot-bloggers get their knickers in a sweaty twist. The academic beigeocrat Alexander Motyl (he of "Why Russia is Really Weak" fame some four... Read More
Though there are plenty of caveats and exceptions, it is safe to generalize that predictions of what the "next war" was going to be like before 1914 were completely inaccurate. The Great War would not be the quick, clean affair typical of the wars of German unification in the 1860's-70's or the sensationalist literature of... Read More
I am going to start off by looking at Europe, defined as the region under the influence of Western Christianity and/or the European Union (not Russia or Turkey, which will be covered in a later Eurasia Report). Demographic problems: aging, low fertility and Eurabia? The unsustainability of the modern welfare state? Cultural decline & reaction... Read More
I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.
One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.
Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.