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Elections

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As I wrote in my post on the Moscow Duma elections, which took place on September 8, the electoral strategy of the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK) - the main pro-Western opposition front to Putin headed by Navalny and his campaign manager Leonid Volkov - was the so-called "Smart Vote." Claiming that many of their candidates had... Read More
One curious point of agreement between anti-imperialist "Western Russophiles" and the most deranged Russophobes (e.g. Arkady Babchenko, who had called him Russia's "future liberal Fuhrer") is the idea that Navalny is a nationalist. This is despite almost no actual, self-identified Russian nationalists considering him as such, and Navalny himself energetically signalling against Russian identity and... Read More
Zelensky [green] vs. Poroshenko [red] abroad via @vybory_91. Raw results here. Poroshenko's best performance: Canada, where Chrystia Freeland lives - 74%; USA - 72%, UK - 70%. Diaspora is even more svidomy than Lvov, but they are hardly representative. While they are good commenters, this is something to bear in mind wrt AP and Mr.... Read More
The second round of the Ukrainian elections are this Sunday. * Zelensky is almost certainly going to win (PredictIt has had him at ~95% for weeks now). It looks like he is going to blow Poroshenko out, probably something like Zelensky 67% vs. Poroshenko 30%. * Unless plans change I'll be discussing the Ukrainian elections... Read More
It seems to be the one *major* country where the more intelligent - on average, and adjusting for the east/west gradient - vote for the "nationalist" candidate, Poroshenko. And just to be clear, he has for all intents and purposes captured the nationalist niche, however unlikely. His slogan: "Army, Language, Faith." Meanwhile, Zelensky talks of... Read More
So it's pretty clear from the exit polls that Zelensky and Poroshenko are going to be the ones duking it out in the second round. Turnout has falle
Now that the midterms have panned out as the predictions market expected, here's what we can now expect: *** Good Things: 1. It was mostly GOPe cucks getting slaughtered, not Trumpist nationalists (e.g. Steve King stayed, though on a razor thin margin). At least this means that nationalism has real staying power. 2. Cabinet picks... Read More
Odds of Republicans winning according to: House Senate FiveThirtyEight 13.0% 84.2% PredictWise 34% 78% Hypermind 20% 92% Oddschecker 33% PredictIt 36% 88% Augur 36%
You can discuss the Brazilian elections in this thread. Actually, no! The above shows Section 5 in São Paulo, one of the most elite districts in the capital. As elections analyst Alexander Kireev points out, the more conventional right-wing candidate Neves (i.e. someone without the homophobia and RWDS overtones) got 75% in the first round... Read More
Every so often I get so comment so good that it needs to be published as its own post (e.g. see Ethiopia). Well, here's one from a Brazilian, Alin: *** 1- Bolsonaro = Macri? No. Macri is a standard vintage neoliberal, Bolsonaro is an actual conservative. Macri just tried (and failed) to legalize abortion in... Read More
Bolsonaro's 46% is just shy of the 50% he needed to win the Brazilian Presidency, while Workers' Party candidate Haddad is at just 29%. While most or all of the rest of the candidates are against Bolsonaro, I still find it difficult to see Haddad winning with these numbers. PredictIt is giving Bolsonaro almost 80%... Read More
Though they remain a solid majority, fewer and fewer Russians are getting their news from TV. . 2009 2013 2018 TV 94% 88% 73% Internet (journals, websites, etc) 9% 21% 37% Friends 26% 24% 18% Social networks 6% 14% 28% Radio 41% 16% 15% Newspapers 37% 20% 13% Journals 8% 4% 3% Other 0% 1%... Read More
Electoral fraud in Russia exists, and is quite prevalent, tilting Putin's and United Russia's results upwards of where "they should up" by up to 10% points since the mid-2000s. That said, Russian electoral fraud has generally not been banana republic tier for a couple of reasons: Electoral fraud usually happens in the counting stages, instead... Read More
On September 9, Moscow is electing its Mayor. The undoubted winner will be Sergey Sobyanin, who is poised to achieve about 70% of the vote. The main "challenger" is KDPR candidate Vadim Kumin, who is slated to do at least twice better than LDPR candidate Mikhail Degtyarev. There are two factors favoring him. First, there... Read More
So the results are in, and... The AKP just failed to get a majority of seats, though it comfortable clears that level in coalition with the nationalist MHP. Was there fraud? No hard statistical evidence of that, at least so far. But a couple of things that are suspicious at a glance: (1) Erdogan's lead... Read More
Haven't been following it closely, so will refrain from commenting on it myself. Polls:
It's 51.4% Zeman vs. 48.6% Drahos. Things seemed dire for Zeman ten days ago, but he scraped by thanks to Drahos having the charisma of a damp rag and the appearance of a low-grade bank clerk (to steal a phrase from Farage).
One hundred years ago (Jan 19, 1918) the Bolsheviks forcibly dissolved the Russian Constituent Assembly, kickstarting the Russian Civil War.
The next Czech President will probably be the guy who signed a "scientists against fear and hatred" in response to Zeman's "Islamophobia" and expressed concern about Russian elections hacking. Not only did the tipsy, politically incorrect Zeman underperform his poll numbers by around 4% points in the first round of the elections, but current polls... Read More
In my coverage of the French elections, I've been vaccilating between optimism and pessimism. Obviously, Le Pen's result - 34% of the vote - was unprecedentedly good, and her popularity seemed to be especially strong amongst French youth. On the other hand, it was perhaps not as good a result as could have been expected,... Read More
An n=8,200 Ipsos poll from May 5 gave Emmanual Macron 63% to Le Pen's 37%. She needs a miracle. The betting markets are likewise gloomy. Macron is 87% favorites on PredictIt, which is bad but not hopeless for Le Pen. However, the picture becomes much worse for the French nationalists when you lo
I haven't been able to locate any international surveys on Macron vs. Le pen like there were for Trump, unsurprisingly so, since France is after all less important than the US. Still, I have been able to find polls from Germany, Russia, and the UK. ***
One of the reasons that I consider the results of these elections to have been strongly disappointing for the Front National is that it represents not just a stunting but a reversal of their upwards trend since the late 2000s. For instance, back in December 2015, the Front National almost doubled their share of the... Read More
france-elections-2017-whos-who
François Hollande, widely considered to be a failure with single digit approval ratings, has - unusually for French politics - decided not to run for a second term. The polls are now split almost evenly between four canditates: The neoliberal Emmanuel Macron; the hard left Jean-Luc Mélenchon; the conservative François Fillon; and the nationalist Marine... Read More
The results are in and YES has won a narrow 51.4% victory in the Turkish referendum on making the country into a Presidential republic. This map I found (via Turkish Wikipedia) is the only one to show regional gradations. It shows the percentage of people voting NO.
I realize everyone is obsessed with North Kora right now, but the Turkish referendum that is set for April 16 may turn out to be even more significant. Erdogan's AKP and the MHP nationalists have proposed a set of amendments to the Turkish constitution that would remove the office of the Prime Minister, annul a... Read More
Wilders' PVV did increase its share of the vote by 3% points relative to the last elections, but considering the hopes and fears getting pum pumped up, this was certainly a defeat for populism - as Hollande, Merkel, Juncker, Macron, and all the other Respectable Politicians recognized as they rushed to congratulate Mark Rutte. Poroshenko... Read More
Simon Hix has published graphs showing the percentage share accruing to different ideological families in European elections since 1918.
As I've pointed out, support for the pro-Western agenda in Russia is highly circumscribed, usually in the low single digits, never higher than 10%. However, much like with divisions in Europe, Britain, and the US - where the globalist agenda (HRC, "Stay," etc) are supported by multinational and cosmpolitan rich elites in the big cities... Read More
(1) United Russia was polling at around 40% according to different pollsters (both state-owned FOM and VCIOM, as well as independent Levada) in the run-up to the elections. However, adjusting for undecideds would raise it to 55%. This is in line with United Russia's official tally of 54.14%. That said, it should be noted that... Read More
The major financial institutions now rate the chances of Brexit at 30%-40%, which is in sync with the odds given by prediction markets. (Quite the change from the start of this year, when it wasn't even clear that the Brexit referendum would be held in the current year and I gave it
An absolute majority - 51.5% - of French policemen and soldiers planned to vote for the Front National in the recent regional elections, according to a poll by CEVIPOF. This is far more impressive than the oft quoted 20% of Greek policemen who support Golden Dawn (though to be sure Golden Dawn is far more... Read More
Here are my US Presidential elections of 2016 results from what is possibly the most comprehensive quiz/polling site on the issue:
The results for all 650 constituencies in, time to make some brief observations. (1) Almost everyone was wrong (including myself). It is 1992 all over again, with opinion polls massively understating Conservative support. (2) Regionally, the story was essentially one of Conservative and SNP triumph in England and Scotland, respectively. Miliband (Labour), Clegg (LibDem), and... Read More
As voting gets underway - and by all accounts, it seems to be overwhelmingly heading for the pro-secession choice - it's worthwhile to dispel four common but erroneous beliefs about it. (1) The referendum is unconstitutional. This is true enough, as all of Ukraine would have to vote on it. But there is one big... Read More
1. The CEC results Here they are. The turnout was 32%. Sergey Sobyanin – 51.37% Alexei Navalny – 27.24% Ivan Melnikov – 10.69% Sergey Mitrokhin – 3.51% Mikhail Degtyaryov – 2.86% Nikolai Levichev – 2.79% Invalid ballots – 1.53% 2. Pre-elections opinion polls: Navalny's support - among those who indicated a clear preference for one... Read More
According to a roundup of all the major exit polls by Kommersant, it appears that although Navalny's performance was massively better than expected, Acting Mayor Sobyanin still managed to avoid a second tour. In Moscow, voting has finished for the new Mayor. According to exit polls carried out at the doors of the election stations... Read More
A couple of polls to provide the fodder for the subsequent discussions. Feel free to provide an exact figure (to one decimal place) for Navalny's percentage share in the comments and we can have a little competition along the lines of the one we had for the Presidential elections. Background - Sobyanin vs. Navalny in... Read More
There has been some confusion about Navalny's poll ratings due to the varying timing, phrasing, and options in the polls on the matter. The Russian Spectrum tries to clear things up. Below is a summary of comparable polls on this subject by date from two of Russia's three biggest polling agencies: The private Levada Center,... Read More
With the registration period over, there are now six candidates left to compete for the position of Mayor of Moscow in the coming city elections. Who will Muscovites vote for? Which of the following candidates are you prepared to vote for in the upcoming Moscow elections on 8 September? Out of all Muscovites ...who intend... Read More
From a Freedom House publication:
Okay, I promise this will be the last post on the matter. But some of the tropes that come up time and time again in coverage of Chavez's legacy, from neocons and faux-leftists alike, just have to be addressed for me to rest easy. Note that this is NOT meant to be comprehensive; just some... Read More
I just remembered I'd made some in 2012. It's time to see how they went, plus make predictions for the coming year. Of course I failed to predict the biggest thing of them all: The hacking that made me throw in the towel on Sublime Oblivion (remember that?), but with the silver lining that I... Read More
Lost in the furor and liberal butthurt over Depardieu's defection has been a development of far greater import: Russia is going to cardinally change its elections system. According to Putin's directive to the Presidential Administration and the Central Elections Committee, they are to come up with a bill that transforms Russia's current proportional system to... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.