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Demographics

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One of the nicest sites on the Internet for data freaks is Max Roser's Our World in Data, which produces lavishly illustrated graphs on a wide variety of political, economics, and society-related topics. The links to the original data sources are also very useful. I found something similar (if much smaller scale) for Russia at... Read More
New census finds that there are 37.3M people in the Ukraine, down by almost 30% relative to their Soviet era peak of 52M. This means that at least semi-officially, the Ukraine now has a lower population than Poland for the first time in recorded history. In reality, even this is probably a significant overestimate: Official... Read More
While we wait for the last data to trickle in to update Russian Demographics in 2019 for the new year, I would note that Rosstat released a new demographic forecast at the end of December. Here is the TLDR on what they project for 2035: As usual, there is a Low, Medium, and High scenario.... Read More
As I have written in prior posts, Russian demographics continues to improve as it has throughout the Putin era (Russian Demographics in 2019). Life expectancy is going up very rapidly, constituting a new record of 73.6 years as of the first eight months of this year. Deaths from external causes continue to plummet, including homicide... Read More
As commenter Reykur recently pointed out - citing the work of the blogger denalt, there is a rather curious phenomenon occurring in a few ethnic Russian regions, where rural fertility has exploded in the past decade. As you can see from the above graph, there has been a rather strange divergence between rural fertility rates... Read More
This is yet another question that excites much heated commentary in the "Ukraine debates." There is a "school" of thought amongst the more ideological Russophiles that the Ukraine has completely emptied out. Here is an article by Andrey Fomin in which he argues that it only has 22-24 million people versus the official figure of... Read More
In my tradition of rescuing sufficiently fine comments from the relative oblivion that are long comments sections, I am reprinting Thulean Friend's detailed comment on Israel's prospects in the last Open Thread. *** I got into a discussion with Dmitry some time ago about emigration patterns from Israel. His postion was that it was an... Read More
In one of my posts on the Age of Malthusian Industrialism, I pointed out that groups such as the Amish and the Mormons will be some of the first to become saturated with genotypic breeders: Now, here is a map of how this may look like, courtesy of /pol/*:
Graph of air accidents in Russia 1923-2019 (via the blogger genby).
This was a very nice livestream in which JF Gariépy gave my the chance to concisely set out my views on the intersection of Russia, the Alt Right, Russian foreign policy, and the Western media (amongst other things).
I have sometimes made the point that All-Russian improvements in mortality/life expectancy lag the City of Moscow (or the Baltics) by around a decade. There are some good, relevant graphics that reinforce it from a recent paper: Щур, Алексей Евгеньевич. 2019. “Города-миллионники на карте смертности России.” Демографическое обозрение 5 (4): 66–91.
(Foreign-owned) Moscow Times: Russia Will Be One-Third Muslim in 15 Years, Chief Mufti Predicts I hope my readers are well acquainted enough with my reporting on Russian demographics to identify this for the BS this is. But if not, here is a refresher: Russia Becoming *More* Russian From Russia to Russabia? Not Anytime Soon
I keep citing Twitter demographer @Cicerone1973. I don't know if he is a professional analyst, but his own projections of Russian TFR and LE usually match mine to the decimal point, so I am sure that he knows what he's doing. And what I try to do for Russia he does for most of the... Read More
So far as Western media tropes on Russia go, this one is in the almost entirely false category. See my most recent comprehensive debunking here: The Nth Wave of Russian Emigration. The "increase" in question almost exclusively accrued to greater numbers of Central Asians leaving Russia after the 2014 devaluation made working in Russia as... Read More
Last year’s summary: Russian Demographics in 2018 [2016; 2014]. Preliminary data for 2018 is in.
Cicerone comments: All valid, excellent points. The UK was still a bit in front of Germany, though I agree that it's really France that stands out.
I have always been fascinated by the blogger Audacious Epigone's theory about Generation Zyklon - the surprising and counterintuitive idea that America's youngest cohort are rejective progressive propaganda in the schools and media, and becoming as "based" as their Silent forefathers. It's an important question, after all, and one that will determine to what extent... Read More
Brockhaus and Efron Encyclopedic Dictionary (1890-1907) on illegitimate births: Illegitimate births / 100 births in Russia in 1892: St. Petersburg 15.92 Smolenskaya 1.93 Moscow 13.65 Kazan 1.90 Lifland 6.36 Mogilev 1.89 Estland 4.46 Vladimirskaya 1.86 Arkhangelsk 4.33 Kharkiv 1.84 Kovno 4.12 Tverskaya 1.82 Perm 4.07 Olonets 1.79 Yaroslavskaya 4.03 Kaluzhskaya 1.75 Pskovskaya 3.98 Bessarabian 1.74... Read More
Hot on the heels of the Center for Immigration Studies report comes a study from the PEW polling organization, which estimates that there were 250,000 births to illegal immigrants in the US in 2016.
Guillaume Durocher has an English language write-up of the disquieting conclusions reached by researchers at the nationalist French website Fdesouche.
Couple of telling Breitbart headlines. * 42% of children in West Germany comes from migrant background It's a double whammy. While the US continues to remains very attractive for white Americans, this doesn't seem to be the case for Germany and native Germans. Not only are immigrants coming in, but Germans are going out. That,... Read More
If you're interested in real time demographics updates, you could do worse than follow Cicerone1973. Every couple of months, he provides an update of the fertility situation in those countries that maintain up to date statistics (s0, mostly the developed world and ex-socialist bloc). Anyhow, something pretty weird is happening. Fertility is plummeting across pretty... Read More
Global Times: China may reward families with more children next year: demographers. It's funny to see China going from a rigid One Child Policy to Russian/Hungarian-style pro-natalism within the space of no more than four years. However, such turnarounds aren't exactly unprecedented in the history of Communist regimes. Mao was a pro-natalist. The One Child... Read More
Can the Ukrainians really be trusted? Andreev, E. et al (2013) - Comparing alcohol mortality in Tsarist and contemporary Russia: is the current situation historically unique? This is the question that arose on finding that paper. Probably not! Fig. 1. The rate of sudden male deaths due to drunkenness in the Russian provinces in 1870–1894... Read More
Commenter Betlo alerts us to an interesting development in Sweden. In a recent school election, the Sweden Democrats got 57% of the vote, in the largest secondary school of Kristianstad Municipality. The neoliberal but moderately anti-immigration Moderate Party came second, with 19%. "Peer pressure" is cited as one explanation, though according to one pupil, a... Read More
The blogger Audacious Epigone has done yeoman's work over the past couple of years documenting the surprising "basedness" of Generation Z(yklon). With the collapse of the Alt Right and Trump turning out to be a damp squib, it might well be that Gen Z is the last best hope for America to remain a somewhat... Read More
Belated comment on the Kemerovo fire that killed 64 people, including 41 children. 1. Tragedies like this are inevitable and will always happen, the best that could be done is working to minimize and mitigate them (personally I favor legislating exorbitant compensation for victims, since money > ethics so far as almost all businesses are... Read More
Population size doesn't matter much if your goal is to live as a small, comfy, unambitious Switzerland or Singapore. But a large population, along with a sufficiently high IQ, remains of sine qua non of being a Great Power or superpower. France went from having 20% of Europe's population during the reign of the Sun... Read More
Last year's summary: Russian Demographics in 2017 Preliminary data for 2017 is in.
PEW has just made three different projections of the Islamic percentage of Europe's population in 2050. Takes: 1. I think actual policy will be between #2 and #3, i.e. #2.5. (Recall when Merkel said multiculturalism was a failure? What a change half a decade makes
Results of the Pakistan Census are out and show that the population has reached 207,774,520 people as of 2017. Note that the UN Population Division estimated Pakistan's population to be 197 million in 2017, or 10 million lower than the just released census figures. Low-lying and impoverished Bangladesh is more commonly cited as the big... Read More
Another Uraza Bayram. Countless photos showing zillions of Muslims filling up Moskvabad's streets. More gleeful shitposts from /pol/ to svidomy forums about imminent Russabia.
So we correctly make fun of people like Neil Turok and Deirdre McCloskey who expect to discover the next generation of Einsteins amongst 70-75 IQ Africans. Even if we could run the full FLynn program on Africa and raise it up to its genotypic IQ potential of 85-90, it's not like countries with those sorts... Read More
The USSR played the leading role in the defeat of Nazi Germany, which the majority of Europeans recognized in 1945 even if half a century of Hollywood propaganda successfully displaced it in the public imagination in favor of the USA. But what about within the USSR itself? Back in January 2015, during his brief nationalist... Read More
Here is a graph of monthly births in Russia since 2006 through to March 2017: Now to be sure, birth rates should - all else equal - be falling, because the diminished generation of the 1990s is now moving into its peak childbearing years. It shouldn't be falling by 10% in any one year, however.... Read More
Emil Kirkegaard dug through a PEW dataset to find out who supports big government. Charles Murray isn't going to be happy about this. His is a doomed ideology.
The final figures for life expectancy and TFR in total and for the regions have been released today. The Rosstat computations give an estimate of TFR = 1.76 children per woman and LE = 71.9 years for 2016, which are pretty close to my rough estimates a month ago. The total population is estimated to... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.