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This is Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's assessment of global excess mortality from COVID-19 from the beginning until May 3, 2021. (h/t Ron Unz) You can read about the methodology here. All in all, this sadly comports with the "millions" prediction I made in February 24, 2020. While at the end of last year... Read More
In 2015, I attempted to quantify the military power of the world's states with an index of Comprehensive Military Power. You can read the post, including the detailed methodology, here. Since then, its conclusions - broadly speaking, that China and Russia had about a third of US military power in the mid-2010s, while the next-tier... Read More
There's been reports of a Ukrainian military buildup in the Donbass for several weeks now. The Saker, amongst others, has also reported on them, quoting a Telegram blogger who is claimed to have good sources in Kiev: My main reason for skepticism that the Ukrainians have serious aggressive intentions is that the Ukraine is still... Read More
The Influence of SJW Commissars Upon History
On paper, the US still has by far the world's strongest military. This is the case whether or not you measure it by military spending, by various indices of military power (e.g. MEU, CAP, or the CMP developed on this blog), or as pertains to the narrower if arguably more relevant naval sphere, by naval... Read More
Good taste, not overly tacky (e.g. too much gold like with Trump). I'd probably build something like that as a strongman. There's nothing cardinally new about Navalny's video. The construction of a palace at Gelendzhik in Krasnodar Krai linked to friends of Putin was "leaked" to the world more than a decade by Sergey Kolesnikov,... Read More
One observation I've seen people make is that Elon Musk's industrial empire seems ultra-optimized for the distinctly non-commercial ambition of establishing a Mars colony: SpaceX for providing the reusable rockets to throw large payloads into space at much lower cost. Tesla to provide the batteries for Mars vehicles. Boring Company to dig out the tunnels... Read More
But let's move on to a far more important discussion: Raz of Chaz or MAGA Viking, who did the techno-barbarian warlord aesthetic better during their occupations of Capitol Hill and the Capitol, respectively? Both are very strong competitors to be sure. *** Points in favor of MAGA Viking: (1) Storming one of the key power... Read More
Why is Israel vaccinating its population so fast relative to everyone else? I am seeing some smol brain takes on this. Sure, Israel might be a "small" country, but so is Belgium. Or US states like Massachusetts. But in the US it is those famous dense metropolitan centers of the Dakotas, Wyoming, and Alaska that... Read More
Where will Chinese GDP end up: At ~US level, or 2-3x the US level? Very important question - after all, it will determine whether the world will remain unipolar (if China ~= US, the latter will remain dominant thanks to its alliance system and soft power) or "bifurcated" between a US-Western sphere and a Sino-centric... Read More
This post probably isn't going to make me many friends. Then again, if catering to various echo chambers was my main concern in life, I wouldn't be running this blog. So, did Biden win thanks to electoral fraud? My general impression is that many, if not all, electoral fraud arguments have been rather simplistic and... Read More
I'm not a huge YouTube person, but this genre of "day by day"'s for various historical events has become a popular genre and one of my favorites. Certainly a useful visual guide to reading about it. And in this case useful as a comparator to what's happening today. First observation - Armenia started off in... Read More
Just like the Balkan Wars before World War I, there are interesting lessons to be drawn from the conflict, and as such I find it rather fascinating - if not surprising, given the quality of our chattering class - that it has receiving such scant journalistic and analytical attention. This is not just an insurgency... Read More
Greaves, Jane S., Anita M. S. Richards, William Bains, Paul B. Rimmer, Hideo Sagawa, David L. Clements, Sara Seager, et al. 2020. “Phosphine Gas in the Cloud Decks of Venus.” Nature Astronomy, September. In reality, as Nick Bostrom
"Listva" Bookshop Opens Up in Russian Capital
Black Hundreds CEO Dmitry Bastrakov giving the opening speech. On August 8, 2020 Moscow saw the opening of the bookshop Listva in Moscow. This is their first expansion outside the original Listva bookshop in Saint-Petersburg, where - incidentally - I had been invited to give a lecture on dysgenics last November. There will now be... Read More
Protest meeting in Minsk on July 30. The images of massive protests coming in from Belarus on the eve of their Presidential elections on August 9, in which Alexander Lukashenko is widely expected to rubber stamp himself another term, have provoked talk of a new color revolution/Maidan. The original social contract offered by Lukashenko since... Read More
What you have in #BlackLivesMatter is an emerging religion, complete with its own pantheon of saints and martyrs and the latest iteration of what some have called negrolatry, or the Cult of the Magical Negro.. The latest "saint" in this religion was a highly flawed human being, to put it charitably. Career criminal, drug dealer,... Read More
There are at least many views on the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of lockdowns. The balance of the evidence suggests that they do work, though the effect is confounded in complex ways by people spontaneously engaging in risk-reducing (but GDP-lowering) behavior. Be that as it may, the point is becoming moot, since they are ending across... Read More
As data has crept in over the past few months, it has become incontrovertibly clear what we already kind of knew since the Princess Diamond days - that IFR is ~1%. Consequently, unless Corona mortality "hotspots" were a figment of our collective imaginations, the percentage of people who have been infected with the novel coronavirus... Read More
Map of QNW+SAS+GEO (IQ tests, international standardized test, and geographic imputation) national IQ on the basis of David Becker's National IQ dataset v1.3.3. David Becker has done yeoman work validating Richard Lynn's datasets to produce the world's most comprehensive national IQ database (James Thompson has written about this at UR). Sole purpose of this post... Read More
So, "powerful" as Trump's latest ideas on coronavirus treatment are, there is a surprising nugget of wisdom to the following: Back in March 18, rationalist thinkers Roko Mijic (yes, he of the Basilisk) and Alexey Turchin explored the idea of using "ubiquitous far-ultraviolet light" to "control the spread of COVID-19 and other pandemics" at LessWrong.... Read More
Long-time readers will know that I am a fan of The Nature Index for tracking global scientometrics. Unlike raw numbers of articles published, it automatically adjusts for quality, since only submissions to elite journals are counted. In my previous longread on the subject, I presented a per capita map of the Nature Index FC (fractional... Read More
When I was in Saint-Petersburg in 2017, I spent a couple of hours at the underground base/gym/Ukrainian war trophy room of the Russian Imperial Movement (RIM) when I visited SPB in 2017 - the "white supremacist" group that has just been designated as a White Supremacist terrorist organization by the US State Department. Three individuals... Read More
For most of the past two months, Russian disinformation agents respectable Western Establishment voices such as the Surgeon-General of the US, the CDC, and the MSM (e.g. CNN, Vox) have churned out propaganda that masks are ineffective against containing the spread of the coronavirus. In perhaps the most "powerful" take, Forbes even claimed that they... Read More
This is a reference list of recommendations for avoiding the warm and welcoming if overly suffocating embrace of Corona-chan. Disclaimer: NOT MEDICAL ADVICE! *** Note that I compiled a list of resources for tracking the pandemic. If your country/region is conscientious about testing, and there are no cases in your city/region, there's no need to... Read More
According to an analysis by Luca Dellanna in Italy, a huge number of Italian deaths have been going unregistered. Comparing death rates in Corona-afflicted towns in North Italy this March with the statistics from March during previous years, he estimates that the differential could be as high as a factor of 5. If this can... Read More
The novel coronavirus is a long disease. That's one of the things that makes it so problematic. Apart from having being at least 10x as lethal as the standard flu, and people having no herd immunity against it (so potentially up to 5x as many infectees as during a typical flu season), the average hospital... Read More
Broke: Globalism Broke: MAGA Woke: 14 Principles of Xi Jinping Thought *** Xi Jinping has just hurt the feelings of 6 billion world citizens: China is
Here's what a smart Trump would have done: Two months of hard containment in NYC, Washington, parts of Florida, and other hotspots to knock the epidemic back down to manageable levels. This is not going to be easy; the Chinese closed off Wuhan when it was at just 400 official cases, and the total number... Read More
Russia's still quite low, though now rapidly expanding, number of cases has predictably provoked the Western media into a slew of headlines about how the Putler regime is supposedly suppressing information on what must, by now, be a raging epidemic: Russia's coronavirus count under scrutiny as Putin government denies hiding cases Russia Says It Has... Read More
At least according to something called the "2019 Global Health Security Index", which claims that: The US, which had, until recently, tested 100x fewer people per capita than Italy. The UK, whose game plan - at least until a couple of days ago - was to let most of its population get infected to make... Read More
Permanent 2.5 Year Drop in US Life Expectancy - It's Just Like the Flu, Brah!
There is a three in a million chance that a Boeing 737 MAX won't arrive at its destination in one piece. At the end of the day, this isn't that big of a deal - as late as the 1980s, this was the average for the commercial airline industry, and risks were twice as high... Read More
Hyperbolic much? At this point, the burden of proof surely now has to be on the optimists, who've been alternately barraging us with "iTs JuSt LiKe ThE fLu", and/or "it's not going to kill non-East Asians anyway" (not that CNN's Sanjay Gupta will admit it). But with epidemics, it's usually a case of go big... Read More
This Wuhan coronavirus (Corona) is very contagious: The WHO gives an estimate of r0 = 1.4 to 2.5 (this means that control measures must prevent 29%-60% of transmissions to stop the epidemic from growing further). There are 41 deaths / 1,287 confirmed cases as of right now (i.e. 3% mortality like 2 days ago). Hopefully,... Read More
Monument to the Heroes of World War I, erected in Victory Park, Moscow in 2014. After a more than a year-long hiatus, caused by certain geographic and occupational changes in his life, the author of these lines would like to resume his translations of Kholmogorov’s work. Remembrance/Veterans’ Day seems like a marvelous occasion to present... Read More
I am not going to cover things that well-informed normies already know: How Israel is a weird outlier in fertility by First World standards, and the collapse of fertility in the Islamic world; how life expectancy has been soaring nearly everywhere; the "Great White Death" in the US and how all races in the US... Read More
doomed-earth
That Which Withholds Eschaton: The Katechon Hypothesis for Resolving the Fermi Paradox
I have been mulling over the ideas in this article since early 2016, when they crystallized in more or less their current form. I am not quite sure whether these ideas are rather important, or the ravings of a lunatic. But I am certainly glad to be able to finally unload them from the confines... Read More
Arthur K. Kroeber - CHINA'S ECONOMY (2016) Rating: 4/5 TLDR: Comprehensive and very readable overview of Chinese economy from a China expert, with especially useful discussions on Chinese SOE's, financial system, and the validity of Chinese economic statistics (spoiler: They're fine). Learned some interesting new things from it, despite having already read a considerable amount... Read More
I am not exaggerating when I say that the Jewish Museum and Center of Tolerance might just be the single best museum that I have ever visited. This isn't because I identify with Jewishness, consider myself an outstanding philo-Semite, or am particularly moved by its spiritual gravitas. I admire it because it does absolutely everything... Read More
I began blogging in 2008. This was the Golden Age of the blogosphere, though by that time, in retrospect, its peak was already behind it. One example: Below is a fair representation of right-alternative ("Dark Enlightenment") bloggers in the early 2010s: Fast forward a decade and the scene has changed. Sure, many of the old... Read More
(1) So yes, basically everyone Alt Right OR Alt Lite is now getting their channels deleted, demonetized, or at least having some of their videos deleted. I don't closely follow the vlogosphere, but here is a Twitter thread that seems to be pretty comprehensive. It's worth pointing out that demonetization is nearly as bad as... Read More
Since the end of the Malthusian era, science-based technological growth has been the source of almost all long-term economic growth. However, we also know that it didn't accrue in all regions evenly. For instance, Charles Murray in Human Accomplishment showed that the vast majority of "eminent" figures in science and the arts hailed from Europe,... Read More
~7% Chance This Guy Will Be President Come 2020. Let's Review His Book.
Andrew Yang - THE WAR ON NORMAL PEOPLE (2018) Rating: 5/5 You can access all of my latest book, film, and video game reviews at this link, as well as an ordered, categorized list of all my book reviews and ratings here: I don't normally read the vapid hagiographies that characterize most political manifestoes. The... Read More
In another timeline, Julian Assange may have enjoyed long walks with Edward Snowden by the Patriarch Ponds in Moscow. Imagine that you are a dissident at risk of extradition to a jilted superpower, whose secrets you just spilled for the entire world to gawk at, and you happen to be caught up in the capital... Read More
The latest polls, jointly conducted by KIIS (Ukraine) and Levada (Russia), show that the collapse in Ukrainian sentiment towards Russia may be turning a corner. Legend: Ukrainian attitudes towards Russia [blue]; Russian attitudes towards Ukraine [orange] For the first time since April 2014, more Ukrainians have a positive impressive of Russia than the converse. Attitudes... Read More
Here is who I predicted would institute basic income back in 2017: So, those first two are basically Trump!2019 and Commissar Kamala, respectively. Yang is not quite a plutocrat, so I'm not 100% sure he'll win. And his tech background he's more East Coast than Silicon Valley. But otherwise, that's his bio to a tee.... Read More
Quantifying An Ethics of Animal Rights, or: Why I Avoid Pork For Non-Islamic, Non-Jewish Reasons
Most normal, civilized people living today would agree that reducing animal suffering is a worthy goal. But how do we to go about it? We can at least all agree, at a minimum, that plants don't have sentience, so veganism is one philosophically and logically consistent option. The problem is that while there are some... Read More
Last year’s summary: Russian Demographics in 2018 [2016; 2014]. Preliminary data for 2018 is in. Births, deaths, and natural increase in Russia, 1946-2018. There were about 1,599,316 (10.9/1,000) births in 2018, a decline of 5.4% relative to the 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017. There were about 1,817,710 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2018, a decline of 0.4%... Read More
This is the fourth in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism. In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world's remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity's capacity for collective... Read More
Russia harvested 133 million tons of grain in 2017, beating the all-time RSFSR record set in 1978. It has also been consistently harvesting more grain than in the Soviet years since the mid-2010s. Here it is in a wider historical perspective. Grain production in Russia from 1900-2012: Graph via @burckina-faso, a pro-Soviet blogger, so can... Read More
The data is based on Goertzel, Ted & al. (2012), Homicide Booms and Busts A Small-N Comparative Historical Study. The lead author kindly emailed me the data used to build their graphs (their version is on the right), which I used to construct the above graph of Russian historical homicide rates from 1875 to 2018.... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.