The Unz Review: An Alternative Media Selection
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There are at least many views on the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of lockdowns. The balance of the evidence suggests that they do work, though the effect is confounded in complex ways by people spontaneously engaging in risk-reducing (but GDP-lowering) behavior. Be that as it may, the point is becoming moot, since they are ending across... Read More
As data has crept in over the past few months, it has become incontrovertibly clear what we already kind of knew since the Princess Diamond days - that IFR is ~1%. Consequently, unless Corona mortality "hotspots" were a figment of our collective imaginations, the percentage of people who have been infected with the novel coronavirus... Read More
Map of QNW+SAS+GEO (IQ tests, international standardized test, and geographic imputation) national IQ on the basis of David Becker's National IQ dataset v1.3.3. David Becker has done yeoman work validating Richard Lynn's datasets to produce the world's most comprehensive national IQ database (James Thompson has written about this at UR). Sole purpose of this post... Read More
So, "powerful" as Trump's latest ideas on coronavirus treatment are, there is a surprising nugget of wisdom to the following: Back in March 18, rationalist thinkers Roko Mijic (yes, he of the Basilisk) and Alexey Turchin explored the idea of using "ubiquitous far-ultraviolet light" to "control the spread of COVID-19 and other pandemics" at LessWrong.... Read More
Long-time readers will know that I am a fan of The Nature Index for tracking global scientometrics. Unlike raw numbers of articles published, it automatically adjusts for quality, since only submissions to elite journals are counted. In my previous longread on the subject, I presented a per capita map of the Nature Index FC (fractional... Read More
When I was in Saint-Petersburg in 2017, I spent a couple of hours at the underground base/gym/Ukrainian war trophy room of the Russian Imperial Movement (RIM) when I visited SPB in 2017 - the "white supremacist" group that has just been designated as a White Supremacist terrorist organization by the US State Department. Three individuals... Read More
For most of the past two months, Russian disinformation agents respectable Western Establishment voices such as the Surgeon-General of the US, the CDC, and the MSM (e.g. CNN, Vox) have churned out propaganda that masks are ineffective against containing the spread of the coronavirus. In perhaps the most "powerful" take, Forbes even claimed that they... Read More
This is a reference list of recommendations for avoiding the warm and welcoming if overly suffocating embrace of Corona-chan. Disclaimer: NOT MEDICAL ADVICE! *** Note that I compiled a list of resources for tracking the pandemic. If your country/region is conscientious about testing, and there are no cases in your city/region, there's no need to... Read More
According to an analysis by Luca Dellanna in Italy, a huge number of Italian deaths have been going unregistered. Comparing death rates in Corona-afflicted towns in North Italy this March with the statistics from March during previous years, he estimates that the differential could be as high as a factor of 5. If this can... Read More
The novel coronavirus is a long disease. That's one of the things that makes it so problematic. Apart from having being at least 10x as lethal as the standard flu, and people having no herd immunity against it (so potentially up to 5x as many infectees as during a typical flu season), the average hospital... Read More
Broke: Globalism Broke: MAGA Woke: 14 Principles of Xi Jinping Thought *** Xi Jinping has just hurt the feelings of 6 billion world citizens: China is
Here's what a smart Trump would have done: Two months of hard containment in NYC, Washington, parts of Florida, and other hotspots to knock the epidemic back down to manageable levels. This is not going to be easy; the Chinese closed off Wuhan when it was at just 400 official cases, and the total number... Read More
Russia's still quite low, though now rapidly expanding, number of cases has predictably provoked the Western media into a slew of headlines about how the Putler regime is supposedly suppressing information on what must, by now, be a raging epidemic: Russia's coronavirus count under scrutiny as Putin government denies hiding cases Russia Says It Has... Read More
At least according to something called the "2019 Global Health Security Index", which claims that: The US, which had, until recently, tested 100x fewer people per capita than Italy. The UK, whose game plan - at least until a couple of days ago - was to let most of its population get infected to make... Read More
Permanent 2.5 Year Drop in US Life Expectancy - It's Just Like the Flu, Brah!
There is a three in a million chance that a Boeing 737 MAX won't arrive at its destination in one piece. At the end of the day, this isn't that big of a deal - as late as the 1980s, this was the average for the commercial airline industry, and risks were twice as high... Read More
Hyperbolic much? At this point, the burden of proof surely now has to be on the optimists, who've been alternately barraging us with "iTs JuSt LiKe ThE fLu", and/or "it's not going to kill non-East Asians anyway" (not that CNN's Sanjay Gupta will admit it). But with epidemics, it's usually a case of go big... Read More
This Wuhan coronavirus (Corona) is very contagious: The WHO gives an estimate of r0 = 1.4 to 2.5 (this means that control measures must prevent 29%-60% of transmissions to stop the epidemic from growing further). There are 41 deaths / 1,287 confirmed cases as of right now (i.e. 3% mortality like 2 days ago). Hopefully,... Read More
Monument to the Heroes of World War I, erected in Victory Park, Moscow in 2014. After a more than a year-long hiatus, caused by certain geographic and occupational changes in his life, the author of these lines would like to resume his translations of Kholmogorov’s work. Remembrance/Veterans’ Day seems like a marvelous occasion to present... Read More
I am not going to cover things that well-informed normies already know: How Israel is a weird outlier in fertility by First World standards, and the collapse of fertility in the Islamic world; how life expectancy has been soaring nearly everywhere; the "Great White Death" in the US and how all races in the US... Read More
doomed-earth
That Which Withholds Eschaton: The Katechon Hypothesis for Resolving the Fermi Paradox
I have been mulling over the ideas in this article since early 2016, when they crystallized in more or less their current form. I am not quite sure whether these ideas are rather important, or the ravings of a lunatic. But I am certainly glad to be able to finally unload them from the confines... Read More
Arthur K. Kroeber - CHINA'S ECONOMY (2016) Rating: 4/5 TLDR: Comprehensive and very readable overview of Chinese economy from a China expert, with especially useful discussions on Chinese SOE's, financial system, and the validity of Chinese economic statistics (spoiler: They're fine). Learned some interesting new things from it, despite having already read a considerable amount... Read More
I am not exaggerating when I say that the Jewish Museum and Center of Tolerance might just be the single best museum that I have ever visited. This isn't because I identify with Jewishness, consider myself an outstanding philo-Semite, or am particularly moved by its spiritual gravitas. I admire it because it does absolutely everything... Read More
I began blogging in 2008. This was the Golden Age of the blogosphere, though by that time, in retrospect, its peak was already behind it. One example: Below is a fair representation of right-alternative ("Dark Enlightenment") bloggers in the early 2010s: Fast forward a decade and the scene has changed. Sure, many of the old... Read More
(1) So yes, basically everyone Alt Right OR Alt Lite is now getting their channels deleted, demonetized, or at least having some of their videos deleted. I don't closely follow the vlogosphere, but here is a Twitter thread that seems to be pretty comprehensive. It's worth pointing out that demonetization is nearly as bad as... Read More
Since the end of the Malthusian era, science-based technological growth has been the source of almost all long-term economic growth. However, we also know that it didn't accrue in all regions evenly. For instance, Charles Murray in Human Accomplishment showed that the vast majority of "eminent" figures in science and the arts hailed from Europe,... Read More
~7% Chance This Guy Will Be President Come 2020. Let's Review His Book.
Andrew Yang - THE WAR ON NORMAL PEOPLE (2018) Rating: 5/5 You can access all of my latest book, film, and video game reviews at this link, as well as an ordered, categorized list of all my book reviews and ratings here: I don't normally read the vapid hagiographies that characterize most political manifestoes. The... Read More
In another timeline, Julian Assange may have enjoyed long walks with Edward Snowden by the Patriarch Ponds in Moscow. Imagine that you are a dissident at risk of extradition to a jilted superpower, whose secrets you just spilled for the entire world to gawk at, and you happen to be caught up in the capital... Read More
The latest polls, jointly conducted by KIIS (Ukraine) and Levada (Russia), show that the collapse in Ukrainian sentiment towards Russia may be turning a corner. Legend: Ukrainian attitudes towards Russia [blue]; Russian attitudes towards Ukraine [orange] For the first time since April 2014, more Ukrainians have a positive impressive of Russia than the converse. Attitudes... Read More
Here is who I predicted would institute basic income back in 2017: So, those first two are basically Trump!2019 and Commissar Kamala, respectively. Yang is not quite a plutocrat, so I'm not 100% sure he'll win. And his tech background he's more East Coast than Silicon Valley. But otherwise, that's his bio to a tee.... Read More
Quantifying An Ethics of Animal Rights, or: Why I Avoid Pork For Non-Islamic, Non-Jewish Reasons
Most normal, civilized people living today would agree that reducing animal suffering is a worthy goal. But how do we to go about it? We can at least all agree, at a minimum, that plants don't have sentience, so veganism is one philosophically and logically consistent option. The problem is that while there are some... Read More
Last year’s summary: Russian Demographics in 2018 [2016; 2014]. Preliminary data for 2018 is in. Births, deaths, and natural increase in Russia, 1946-2018. There were about 1,599,316 (10.9/1,000) births in 2018, a decline of 5.4% relative to the 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017. There were about 1,817,710 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2018, a decline of 0.4%... Read More
This is the fourth in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism. In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world's remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity's capacity for collective... Read More
Russia harvested 133 million tons of grain in 2017, beating the all-time RSFSR record set in 1978. It has also been consistently harvesting more grain than in the Soviet years since the mid-2010s. Here it is in a wider historical perspective. Grain production in Russia from 1900-2012: Graph via @burckina-faso, a pro-Soviet blogger, so can... Read More
The data is based on Goertzel, Ted & al. (2012), Homicide Booms and Busts A Small-N Comparative Historical Study. The lead author kindly emailed me the data used to build their graphs (their version is on the right), which I used to construct the above graph of Russian historical homicide rates from 1875 to 2018.... Read More
Technology Review: Chinese scientists are creating CRISPR babies It's a popular meme that a China unencumbered by Judeo-Christian morality/superstitions (cross out as appropriate) will be more open to transhumanist technology. For instance, here is a typical statement of this argument from my friend Hank Pellissier:
HBD blogger JayMan has recently made a blog post critiquing me for my "Hajnal denialism." I really don't know where the criticism comes from. A quick perusal of my website and Twitter reveals that I do think ancestral family systems, as explored in the works of Hajnal and Emmanuel Todd, has significant explanatory power. Heck,... Read More
Joseph Tainter - The Collapse of Complex Societies (1998) Rating: 5/5 Notes: Can be downloaded here. Access my other reviews here: TLDR: Joseph Tainter argues that the root cause of civilizational collapse is because of over-investment into and declining marginal returns on complexity. Societies invest in complexity to solve their problems and typically need to... Read More
Izvestia (Dec 13, 1941) honors Vlasov amongst eight other heroes of the Battle of Moscow. Anybody who has spent any amount of time questioning the standard Soviet narratives about the first half of the 20th century will invariably be called a Vlasovite at some point. So far as neo-Stalinists are concerned, the turncoat general is... Read More
Kiev Pechersk Lavra. This is what Nicetas, Archbishop of Nicomedia, wrote in the 12th century about the Great Schism (1054) between Catholicism and Orthodoxy: Difference between then and now? A millennium ago, the Vicar of Christ presided over a flock that was about as demographically predominant within Christendom as the Russian Orthodox Church is within... Read More
Sergey Prokudin-Gorsky: Kiev in 1905. I suppose that if superintelligence is developed soon, or the entire world melts together into a post-historical open borders dystopia/utopia, or some existential risk does as all in, then these considerations will become rather irrelevant. However, if the 21st century continues on a more or less "business as usual" path,... Read More
Wei Geisheing (2013). Aerial Shanghai by Crane Operator 2. Let's take the standard assumption that national power consists of three main elements: Economic, military, and cultural ("soft"). Why can we be confident that China is on its way to superpowerdom? China has already overtaken the US in terms of GDP (PPP) in the mid-2010s at... Read More
Robin Hanson once wrote a blog post about how reasonably intelligent people (for instance, the sort of people who read his blog) tend to overestimate how smart everyone else is. For instance, about half of Americans are unable to correctly read a table and do a simple addition/subtraction calculation: Such is the banal reality of... Read More
AK: This is a guest post from a friend of mine who... let's just say has spent a lot of time in both Russia and the United States. I can personally vouch for almost of all of these observations. *** Scholars variously assign responsibility for the political demise of the Soviet Union to different world... Read More
* NBC: Trump administration to hit Russia with new sanctions for Skripal poisoning The sanctions are directly based on
This is essentially a short history of the 20th century from the point of view of HBD realism and the maxim that "population is power." This century turned out to be an "American Century." But it wasn't obvious that it was going to be that way - while the United States was almost predestined to... Read More
Global Times: China may reward families with more children next year: demographers. It's funny to see China going from a rigid One Child Policy to Russian/Hungarian-style pro-natalism within the space of no more than four years. However, such turnarounds aren't exactly unprecedented in the history of Communist regimes. Mao was a pro-natalist. The One Child... Read More
Sergey Prokudin-Gorsky (1911): General view of the Church of St. John Chrysostom in Korovniki (from the mill) from the west. It is a curious thing that one of the most important stories of the Russian Civil War doesn't even have an English language entry in Wikipedia. Google results either lead to fleeting mentions in obscure... Read More
maria-butina-1
As I suspected, Trump's meeting with Putin did indeed turn out to be a damp squib, at least relative to the unrealistic expectations that all sorts of strongly ideological camps had built up around it. Putin repeated his insistence that Russia did not meddle in the US elections, congratulated Trump on North Korea, acknowledged that... Read More
"15,000 African refugees could be resettled in Stavropol," read the Komsomolskaya Pravda headline, as displayed on Kholmogorov's latest post to appear on my Facebook feed. So this is the terminal stage of Putinism, I thought. Infinity Refugees. It is as if the kremlins looked at what is happening in the US and Western Europe and... Read More
The FLynn Effect has not acted uniformly across the various domains of intelligence. To put it very roughly, in the past century, the developed world has seen a two S.D. improvement on Raven's Progressive Matrices, hardly any improvement in verbal or Backward Digit Span tests, and a one S.D. improvement in various picture arrangement and... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.