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This January has been Moscow's warmest by a significant margin since records began, clocking in at stunning +0.1C; in all likelihood, it is the first time it has slipped above zero since at least the Medieval Warm Period. The previous maximum was -1.6C just a bit more than a decade ago, in 2007. Saint-Petersburg likewise... Read More
On the surface, quarantining the population of Spain looks impressive and decisive. But it conceals that there were many decisions that are unlikely to happen in advanced country democracies: (1) The lax regulations or biosafety standards that resulted in this zoonosis event in the first place. (2) The Wuhan local government keeping the whole thing... Read More
Comparison of SARS and Corona from the day the WHO started
The Chinese describe the concerted campaigns to identify and shame various malefactors as a "human flesh search engine." In China itself, it has been used to identify corruptioneers, sadists, or merely people who have been too outspoken about their dislike for China. In the West, it seems that this role is largely played by the... Read More
Rindermann, Heiner, David Becker, and Thomas R. Coyle. 2020. “Survey of Expert Opinion on Intelligence: Intelligence Research, Experts’ Background, Controversial Issues, and the Media.” Intelligence 78 (January): 101406. Experts (N max = 102 answering) on intelligence completed a survey about IQ research, controversies, and the media. The survey was conducted in 2013 and 2014 using... Read More
doomed-earth
That Which Withholds Eschaton: The Katechon Hypothesis for Resolving the Fermi Paradox
I have been mulling over the ideas in this article since early 2016, when they crystallized in more or less their current form. I am not quite sure whether these ideas are rather important, or the ravings of a lunatic. But I am certainly glad to be able to finally unload them from the confines... Read More
"Intelligence researcher" doesn't exactly have a reputation as a safe, uncontroversial profession. There are perhaps 200 people in the world who do that full-time. Despite this small population, we seem to get a story - often multiple stories - of them getting denounced, defamed, deplatformed, threatened, and even physically attacked every single year. Thanks to... Read More
Is now ready for 2018. As I wrote last year: The data for this year is attached below. Main observations: 1. As I wrote in The Geography of the Noosphere, China continues gaining ground on the rest of the world. It now produces 56% as much elite level science as the United States. I would... Read More
Kodyleva, T. A., A. O. Kirillova, E. A. Tyschik, V. V. Makarov, A. V. Khromov, V. A. Guschin, A. N. Abybakirov, D. V. Rebrikov, and G. T. Sukhikh. 2018. “Эффективность создания делеции CCR5Ddelta32 методом CRISPR-Cas9 в эмбрионах человека.” Научный Медицинский Журнал РНИМУ имени Н.И. Пирогова 4. This makes Russia the world's fourth country to have... Read More
I called the coming bifurcation of the world economy last November. Could this also extend to science? IEEE, a major science publisher, bans Huawei scientists from reviewing papers: During the Cold War, there developed essentially two different scientific systems (citations databases, journals, language) in the West (dominated by English by the 1970s) and the socialist... Read More
All the cool biopunk stuff seems to be happening in China these days: Chinese scientists have put human brain genes in monkeys—and yes, they may be smarter Here is the paper in question: Shi, Lei, Xin Luo, Jin Jiang, Yongchang Chen, Cirong Liu, Ting Hu, Min Li, et al. 2019. “Transgenic Rhesus Monkeys Carrying the... Read More
I am not one of those people who mock Ukraine as Africa with snow. It's amusing, but not really accurate. But goddamn they do they sometimes give cause for it!
For a long time, the world's most recognizable proponent of radical life extension - not to mention significant scientist in his own right, and not just in gerontology - kept refraining from giving any quantitative predictions of when we would reach "longevity escape velocity." However, I notice that he has been getting a great deal... Read More
Quantifying An Ethics of Animal Rights, or: Why I Avoid Pork For Non-Islamic, Non-Jewish Reasons
There are 10^23 to 10^24 neurons on the planet. The human brain has around 86 billion neurons. World population * human neurons = 10^~10*11^~10 = 10^~21 (slightly less, but let's round up). This means the human population can "safely" increase by at least two more orders of magnitude to 1 to 10 trillion, so the... Read More
Since surrounding yourself with a healthy radioactive glow is not practical for most people, there's fortunately another solution - settle down higher up. That way, presumably, you get to soak up more beneficent, hormetic cosmic rays. *** Voss, J. D., P. Masuoka, B. J. Webber, A. I. Scher, and R. L. Atkinson. 2013. “Association of... Read More
Well, so do we all, but the Japanese in particular. Shizuyo Sutou (2018): Low-dose radiation from A-bombs elongated lifespan and reduced cancer mortality relative to un-irradiated individuals The US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) presented the linear no-threshold hypothesis (LNT) in 1956, which indicates that the lowest doses of ionizing radiation are hazardous in proportion... Read More
Melinda C. Mills & & Charles Rahal (2019): A scientometric review of genome-wide association studies There are many more GWAS being carried out over the years, with much larger sample sizes:
Ask and ye shall receive! Via Nightfox: Here is a partial list of worldwide opinion polls on genetic editing: Highlights below. (Sample sizes not listed are unavailable.) TL;DR US support for cognitive enhancements collapsed in the 1990s. Support for genetic editing appears to be higher outside the Hajnal line (see Turkey, Italy, Spain). U.K., XI.2017:... Read More
It was carried out a couple of weeks after China's CRISPRgate. Results are basically the same as for the July 2018 poll by PEW, in which 72% consider gene editing for treating a serious condition at birth appropriate but only 19% support it for intelligence augmentation. Other polls I'm aware of: Chinese poll in 2018... Read More
Technology Review: Chinese scientists are creating CRISPR babies It's a popular meme that a China unencumbered by Judeo-Christian morality/superstitions (cross out as appropriate) will be more open to transhumanist technology. For instance, here is a typical statement of this argument from my friend Hank Pellissier:
HBD blogger JayMan has recently made a blog post critiquing me for my "Hajnal denialism." I really don't know where the criticism comes from. A quick perusal of my website and Twitter reveals that I do think ancestral family systems, as explored in the works of Hajnal and Emmanuel Todd, has significant explanatory power. Heck,... Read More
W.L. Chen et al. (2006): Effects of Cobalt-60 Exposure on Health of Taiwan Residents Suggest New Approach Needed in Radiation Protection
Is now ready for the period 1 January 2017 - 31 December 2017. The Weighted Fraction Count (WFC) of the Nature Index is is probably the single best proxy for quality-adjusted scientific output in the world today. You can read about the methodology here. The first publicly accessible Nature Index dates to 2013, and covers... Read More
Look, I realize Elon Musk is really cool and all, but this latest is just not that significant. The Falcon Heavy can carry 63 tons into orbit - but only if the rocket isn't reused. If it is, it's just a sad 8 tons [for GTO launches]. That already rules out commercial applications involving very... Read More
London Student: Exposed: London’s eugenics conference and its neo-Nazi links Some background: This scandal broke out when Toby Young, a conservative British political figure with a colorful history of Twitter controversies, was appointed to a government board on education - and removed almost instantaneously, after this story broke in The London Student, and was subsequently... Read More
Commenter Polish Perspective draws attention to a startling new statistic: In my 2016 longread, I pointed out that China was converging with America on a broad range of hi-tech economy indicators. Now yes, Chinese papers have a reputation for shoddiness, being worse on average than Western ones, but absolute values do matter, and quality is... Read More
I want to gather most of my arguments for skepticism (or, optimism) about a superintelligence apocalypse in one place. (1) I appreciate that the mindspace of unexplored superintelligences is both vast and something we have had absolutely zero experience with or access to. This argument is also the most speculative one. That said, here are... Read More
Grigoriev, Andrey & Lynn 2009 Studies of Socioeconomic and Ethnic Differences in Intelligence in the Former Soviet Union in the Early Twentieth Century Abstract: This is essentially a short history of psychometrics in the USSR/Russia. (1) The first measurement of Russian IQ was performed in 1909 by A.M. Schubert, who used the French Binet test... Read More
Partridge, Emily et al. - 2017 - An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb *** I have been ad
Tang, Lichun et al. 2017 CRISPR/Cas9-mediated gene editing in human zygotes using Cas9 protein Abstract: Gwern Branwen's comments: Back in February 2015, qualia researcher Mike Johnson predicted that dedicated billionaire with scant regard for legalistic regulations could start
Silicon Valley's tech oligarchs are becoming increasingly interested in brain-computer interfaces. The WSJ is now reporting that Elon Musk is entering the game with a new company, Neuralink. At the low end, they could improve function in patients suffering from diseases such as Parkinson's, which is the modest aim that the first such companies like... Read More
This blog post by Sarah Constantin has an impressively comprehensive tally of performance trends in AI across multiple domains. So "deep learning" might not have been as transformational as the tech press wo
Ashburn-Nardo, Leslie 2017 Parenthood as a Moral Imperative? Moral Outrage and the Stigmatization of Voluntarily Childfree Women and Men Abtract: Nationally representative data indicate that adults in the United States are increasingly delaying the decision to have children or are forgoing parenthood entirely. Although some empirical research has examined the social consequences of adults’ decision... Read More
manyukhin-tower-of-sin
Fundamentally solve the “intelligence problem,” and all other problems become trivial. The problem is that this problem is a very hard one, and our native wit is unlikely to suffice. Moreover, because problems tend to get harder, not easier, as you advance up the technological ladder (Karlin, 2015), in a “business as usual” scenario with... Read More
In recent years there has been a surge in interest in gut flora in the wake of research on its substantial effects on personality, so much so that researchers have even taken to describing it as a neutral network. And much like humans, and even their brains, they are not going to be an exception... Read More
Last month there was an interview with Eliezer Yudkowsky, the rationalist philosopher and successful Harry Potter fanfic writer who heads the world's foremost research outfit dedicated to figuring out ways in which a future runaway computer superintelligence could be made to refrain from murdering us all. It's really pretty interestingl. It contains a nice explication... Read More
Latest data from NASA: (2) Solar irradiance is
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.