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Ideology

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Credit where credit is due - Navalny has come out against Trump's deplatforming. (He posted the same thing in Russian). The brighter Blue Checks RT'ed this, saying, OK, good points, though I respectfully disagree. Some of the duller Blue Checks and Russiagaters in the replies attacked Navalny, calling him a Russian nationalist, expressing "disappointment" in... Read More
He monitored the situation. Pretty successful poasting career though.
There are MAGA people claiming this is a deep fake in the replies, LOL. As concerns the ability to generate an undying cult of personality, even past the point of becoming a (political) corpse, I suppose Donald Trump truly is the "God-Emperor of Mankind." Having a non-suspended Twitter account is helpful with that, I imagine.
If you gaze long upon the Ukraine... The Ukraine gazes back into you.
I haven't been following them closely (or at all, really). But my throwaway guess is that Republicans lose both. Why would lower income Trump supporters vote for the party that failed to find Trump 11,780 votes and denied them their well-deserved $2,000 worth of gibs? I certainly wouldn't in their place. Polling average ends in... Read More
Credibly deniable assassinations are a complex O-ring task (everything in a long chain of procedures has to go right). So is covering up failed ones. FSB graduation parade.
Do you run the bioethicists over and call it a day, or do you use the trolley to send them to Gulag camps where they will have a unique and exciting opportunity to acquire practical experience in their area of expertise?
I wasn't able to watch it yesterday, but I was amused to see its main highlight: BBC hack Steve Rosenberg getting owned with facts and logic by PUTLER! There wasn't much new or interesting: Navalny is a tool of American intelligence services, his investigations are a way of laundering their findings... "Our security services keep... Read More
Prior to the 2020 US elections, I ran a predictions tournament. Given that the Electoral College has now formally voted, putting the matter to rest - at least so far as non-ideologues are concerned - it is now time to run the results. *** Best performance in terms of deviation of EC votes from Biden's... Read More
Navalny has released a video in which he has the gall to complain some more about the "Novichok" accelerated weight loss program and multiple rounds of beauty treatments that PUTLER! provided him with for absolutely free. But I just realized something rather more interesting and politically relevant. He has 4.3M subscribers on his YouTube. Dmitry... Read More
The EC vote threw up no surprises, without even a single faithless elector. I did tell you all not to expect miracles or get too invested in this idiotic drama, not least for the sake of your own mental health (or your financial health - if you took the 10% post-elections odds seriously). The screeching... Read More
Russian Duma to consider law on blocking foreign social media that censor the free speech of Russian citizens: Blogging about this a bit late - it was introduced three weeks ago - but this is partially Even though I have long conclusively confirmed that PUTLER reads my blog, he is still a boomer at heart,... Read More
How much bigger will the Chinese economy be relative to the US in the year of 2050? We'll both presumably be near retirement, but OK, it's on. What are we betting on? Bottle of Laphroaig 30-year-old? The amount of ethereum needed to buy the computing costs of simulating a single human em? Suggestions welcome. If... Read More
Many people have remarked that Trump has been an incredibly polarizing President. What's less remarked upon is that the effect doesn't isn't just work across the population, but across time within the hearts of his supporters. Come to think of it, wouldn't Qanon be the very immanentization of a zrada-peremoga cycle, where each "victory" (peremoga)... Read More
Check out my latest podcast with Robert Stark here. No, really. While I'm not always very happy with all the podcasts I'm on, I think this one turned out very nicely. Here are the topics we discussed: Anatoly’s initial Election Predictions which were fairly accurate MAGA Cope, and In Defense of It Biden Recognitions from... Read More
Well we might already have an answer to that (h/t A New Radical Centrism): In fairness, this isn't a 100% done deal, as he continues: Even so, prospects aren't looking good. Large numbers of the "intellectual" Dissident Right (with the notable exception of James Lindsay) ended up backing either Biden or at least neutrality, in... Read More
This post probably isn't going to make me many friends. Then again, if catering to various echo chambers was my main concern in life, I wouldn't be running this blog. So, did Biden win thanks to electoral fraud? My general impression is that many, if not all, electoral fraud arguments have been rather simplistic and... Read More
  I discussed the elections, the political impact of coronavirus, and the likely course of US-Russian relations under a Biden vs. Trump Presidency with Vile Varangian. Twitter users Gaslight, Constantine, fashy zizek, Zero Schizo, and Calm European also took parts at various points in this 5 hour livestream.
The last election I watched with a Russian friend at the London School of Economics student room in 2016. The cope and seethe amongst those rootless cosmopolitans was out of this world, as the only Trump supporters in the room it was like being the physical embodiment of trollface.jpg. I don't expect to see a... Read More
Now one common objection, often made by Trump supporters, is that the overwhelmingly pro-Democrat class of hacks and data analysts is biased and ignorant of sentiment in the "Real America" and this colors their judgment, as it purportedly did in 2016*. Conversely, their liberal counterparts rejoinder that popular prediction markets, which are strongly out of... Read More
Make your predictions here. I want to do this in a standard way, so for your contribution to be counted: Navigate over to Color in the map (only red/blue, no toss ups or gradients) Click "share map" Click on the image URL and paste the link to the .png file Paste the png file into... Read More
Sad but not atypical libertarian story: Glenn Greenwald has been censored by The Intercept, the media outlet he co-founded, after Russiagate neolibs and SJWs took it over and essentially turned it into a Mother Jones clone. He has now departed for Substack. My only surprise at this point is that it hasn't happened sooner. Although... Read More
The WSJ on the latest revelations (paywalled version) in the neverending RussiaGate Saga: Quoting the most relevant parts: Olga Galkina's Facebook profile is still up. She has something of a "reputation" in Moscow hack circles. https://twitter.co
Then, unsurprisingly, Biden would win. Recent IPSOS poll: Here is how this compares to the 2016 figures. Eyeballing, it looks like foreign perceptions of Trump have actually improved over the past four years, if from a low base. This goes against media rhetoric. *** Although the RussiaGaters will doubtless focus on Russia's figures, the reality... Read More
Reposting for relevance: Good for Hunter, the guy clearly knows how to have fun. Do the MAGA people really think any of the "Never Trump" voters will be swayed to vote against Biden because his wayward son got blown by some Chinese hooker? Really? Pretty lame if this is the best the Trump campaign was... Read More
RT: Could they be blocked? Russia refuses to grant extension to Facebook & Twitter over demand to store citizens’ data inside country In related news: (1) Twitter has gone from labeling Russian (and Chinese) state news channels "state affiliated media" (while failing to extend the same standards to Western state-owned outlets such as RFERL, or... Read More
Overall, solid performances from both Trump and Biden, they know their respective audiences. The people describing this as "shitshow" etc. seem to be under the mistaken impression this was supposed to be a debate. Both repeated their respective party line on the coronavirus. Trump lasered in from the "China Virus" angle, and mocked Biden for... Read More
If Russiagate fantasies were real and they had the vote in US elections - at least as suggested by this FOM poll. This is not to say that Russians like Trump - their short post-elections honeymoon was soon after undermined by Russiagate sanctions and foreign policy erraticism, such as the strikes on Russian mercenaries in... Read More
KMIS poll on Ukrainian attitudes to Lukashenko vs. protesters from: It was carried out on 12-16 September, i.e. after the breakdown of Belorussian-Ukrainian relations following Lukashenko's about turn on extraditing the Russian mercs to Ukraine. Across the Ukraine, 31% support Lukashenko while 45% support the protesters. I would actually probably similar to figures for Belarus... Read More
I am not going to stick my neck out with concrete predictions, except to the extent that I agree with the betting markets that it's close to 50/50 with the edge going to Biden. Trump has incumbent advantage, but Biden is not Hillary, so the two cancel out. Like it or not, blame for Corona... Read More
This has not been a good year for Russian nationalists mortality-wise. The NazBol Eduard Limonov died in March, while the natsdem (liberal nationalist) Konstantin Krylov passed away in May. And now, the OG of Russian Neo-Nazism, "Tesak" (lit. "Hatchet", real name: Maxim Martsinkevich), a skinhead of Polish-Russian ancestry who can be said to have invented... Read More
Kievan Rus was a historiographic term invented by 19th century historians in the Russian Empire. The people in Rus' ("na Rusi"), or the Russian lands ("Russkaya zemlya"), from Galicia to Vladimir-Suzdal called themselves "Rus." "Rossiya" is nothing more than than Greek for Rus' ("Ruthenia" in Latin). That cleared up, I really don't really understand what... Read More
Jeffrey Goldberg has an article on The Atlantic where he makes various claims about how Trump disrespected the troops and about what a vapid, disrespectful, materialist person he is in general. Let's make the bold assumption that he hasn't conjured this up out of thin air. Honor or denigrate them as you will, but there's... Read More
People want me to comment on Navalny. I have avoided doing so because I just don't know. There are plenty of other people who don't know either but are writing about it anyway so why would I waste my time and your time on this. I don't know what the poison was. It probably was... Read More
I was saying from the beginning that managing Belarus in the next few months will be a delicate balancing game for Russia, consisting as it does of the following components: Weakening Lukashenko, which is happening of its own accord, which strengthens Russian negotiating positions in pushing for reintegration. But preferably not so much that he... Read More
So a couple of months back, the publisher and developer of the "Call of Duty" US military propaganda video game franchise Activision/Infinity Ward were pushing the Black Lives Matter like any other good Woke Capitalist. But it seems the children have now had their fun, and - as in the UK, where the authorities suddenly... Read More
From Gerard Toal and John O’Loughlin in The Washington Post, who have in general done some very useful and objective (at least, quantitative) work on geopolitical attitudes in Russia's Near Abroad over the years. Here is the key observation: While allowances may be made for youngsters drifting towards more conservative positions with age, the divide... Read More
Not really sure about Lukashenko's strategy at this point. In the morning, he was telling booing factory workers that they would have to "kill him" if they wanted new elections. Which is admittedly a very Chad move, if tempting of fate. A few hours later, he was promising elections after a nationwide referendum on a... Read More
Ukrainian svidomy are obsessed with demanding English language speakers say "Kyiv not Kiev" and "Ukraine, not the Ukraine". They even demand that Russians say "в Украине", instead of "на Украине". Amusingly, when even Khodorkovsky of all people - the exiled anti-Putin oligarch who personally traveled and spoke before the crowd at the Euromaidan - suggested... Read More
From the beginning I have stressed that the opposition protesters in Belarus - the masses of people out on the streets because they have issues with electoral fraud, economic stagnation, and/or Lukashenko having overstayed his welcome - are not anti-Russian ideologues. These "zmagars" do exist, and their influence has grown since 2014, thanks in significant... Read More
Despite Westernist hopes that the Lukashenko rally would end like Ceausescu's last one, where the unexpected booing of the masses signaled the end of the regime, there was no such reaction here. Despite claims of many of them being state workers who had been coerced into turning up, there was even some limited enthusiasm. You... Read More
Our powerful host Ron Unz joins a growing roster of UR bloggers and columnists to be interviewed by Robert Stark. Some of the topics they discussed: Recap of Ron’s Top Issues in past California U.S. Senate Race The Unz Review as a big tent of important, interesting, and controversial opinions from both the left and... Read More
General Strike: Ironically, this wouldn't have happened if Lukashenko had pursued neoliberal reforms. ~90% of the Belarus economy is state-owned. Prediction Market: The only prediction market I'm aware of on whether Lukashenko remains President of Belarus (as of Jan 31, 2020) is on Metaculus, it is now at 60% (down from an initial 75-80% until... Read More
So apparently 70% of Romanians agree with that powerful slogan. When I was in Romania, their libs were telling me only marginal freaks supported reunification with Moldova. But evidently, they were wrong. It is more like 70% of the population as that map shows. I actually think Moldova is pretty interesting as a comparator for... Read More
Robin Hanson is one of the central people in this entire rationality/effective altruism network, along with Scott Alexander and Eliezer Yudkowsky. For him to be canceled, by a vote of 6 vs. 1 out of eight at that, for a set of modestly controversial thought experiments - that is, the basis of all philosophy -... Read More
It's become glaringly evident that Western societies (unfortunately, Russia "qualifies") do not have the state capacity or social discipline to contain Corona. Not high IQ enough to solve it through technological silver bullets like ubiquitous testing. Not imaginative enough to do large-scale variolation, as Robin Hanson proposed. Nor do they have the fortitude to "power... Read More
Is "brutal policewoman" Kamala really a bad pick in the midst of a Black crime epidemic? Can be relied upon to be loyal to the neoliberal order, while ticking all the diversity and woke boxes. I think the whining is Chapo and Trumpist cope. White lib boomers are going to lap this up. Anyhow, belated... Read More
Not many good recent photos, so reaching back to winter in my archives. Anyhow, the Museum of the Russian Diaspora is very good - strong recommend. *** I talked to Robert Stark on Scott Alexander's idea of the "Gray Tribe" and other topics on his podcast: Anatoly’s article No Country for Gray Tribesmen Gray Tribe... Read More
Along with Sputnik and some others. Which is fair enough, except that the following don't also get the same treatment: BBC Voice of America RFERL France 24 Deutsche Welle Al Jazeera (!) Al Arabiya TRT The @Russia account is labeled, but not the @Ukraine one. However, it does include a bunch of Chinese media outlets:... Read More
We all know this, but always good to have priors confirmed. Ok, Ekin, Yi Qian, Brendan Strejcek, and Karl Aquino. 2020. “Signaling Virtuous Victimhood as Indicators of Dark Triad Personalities.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, July. We investigate the consequences and predictors of emitting signals of victimhood and virtue. In our first three studies,... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.