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I try to avoid cheap jokes about Ukraine is like Africa. But I do sometimes wonder. This is how doctors and nurses at a Lvov hospital reacted to finding out that they wouldn't be hosting potential coronavirus infectees evacuated from China. By singing the ще не вмерла. In fairness, you're probably safer staying at home... Read More
Underreported in the Western media, in the past few weeks there have been massive protests in Montenegro, involving as many as 150,000 people (that is, a quarter of its population). What are they protesting about? Late last December, the Montenegrin parliament approved an EU-supported law allowing the state to seize church property in the absence... Read More
Egor Kholmogorov has noted that Constitution of Bashkortostan, where Bashkirs only make up 36% of the population, proudly announces that Bashkortan is for Bashkirs: On looking it up, I found that the preamble of the Constitution of Tatarstan, where Tatars constitute a bare minority at 53%, has similar phrasing: So we have Bashkortostan for the... Read More
Translation: Preamble: "We, citizens of Russia, united by a common historical destiny, confirming the rights and freedoms of the person, democratic values, and civic peace; preserving and developing the centennial traditions of Russian statehood, as established by the Russian [russkie] people in their striving for national self-determination and identity with the help and participation of... Read More
Bryan MacDonald has covered PM Mikhail Mishustin's new Cabinet in detail at his RT blog, so I'll avoid repeating the listings there and widely available elsewhere. *** Despite the heavy import of Putin's proposed Constitutional changes, the actual change in the Cabinet has been negligible. Sergey Shoigu, Sergey Lavrov (contra initial rumors), and Vladimir Kolokoltsev... Read More
Some people on here and Twitter were sure they'd succeed. But they seem to have vanished off the radar in the past couple of days. Few news stories, no updates on /r/worldnews. What happened? In reality, as I pointed out, they were almost certain to fail. To get a color revolution going, you need a... Read More
The data points keep getting better and better. We now know that 10/11 missiles hit (up from the initial estimate of 6/11). The damage they did has also been upgraded, with a Danish soldier speaking of many helicopters destroyed (as opposed to the US claim of one damaged) and 11 US soldiers reported injured. More... Read More
To do a color revolution, you generally need: Significant proportion of the population going out into the streets (not just university students and office plankton). Some degree of elite defection. Trump's bombast regardless - congratulations to him on learning Farsi and becoming an Iran expert in the past 48 hours - I don't see either... Read More
The Iran War has been called off for the time being, but the threat of a renewed crisis and future escalation remain. The Iranian missile strikes on two US bases in Iraq provide updated data points on how such a clash will go. 1. The most important adjustment we need to make is that Iranian... Read More
The opinion polls in the US show broad based support for escalation with Iran amongst the Republicans (84%), despite their drift towards "America First".
PS. Events overtook my writing of this blog post. Looking forwards to a resolution of the Stealth Question and the Aircraft Carrier Question. How would an Iran War be fought? I already addressed this question on several occasions, most notably on The Road to World War III (see 2.c. The Persian Gulf), as well as... Read More
I am not an Iran expert, and will not pretend that I have magically become one in the past few days. Nor do I see much point in a detailed chronicle of the latest developments and Tweets - for that, there is, say, /r/SyrianCivilWar. Instead, I think it would be more productive to highlight a... Read More
Some interesting estimates of the numbers of foreign fighters that participated in the Donbass War from 2014-2019 from a report [PDF] by the Soufan Center. (h/t Kholmogorov)
You can read the report with all the polls here. Macron is currently making some moves to normalize EU-Russia relations, which hasn't been covered much because the MSM would much rather blast "Putler puppet" Trump and the now-departed Salvini for it. The actual explanation is a lot more banal. It has nothing to do with... Read More
The joint air patrol between Russia and China - the first of its kind - was a further major development in the strategic partnership between the two countries. These have been getting closer for years, despite Western fantasies about an eventual break. However, the most interesting thing about this is Russia's violation of Korean/Japanese airspace... Read More
So apparently the Hong Kong authorities have had the Galaxy Brain idea of unleashing their equivalent of titushki against the Hong Kong demonstrators. It is extremely bad optics. An article about the assaults is the top headline on /r/worldnews, probably the world's single biggest international politics forum. A pregnant woman had a miscarriage as a... Read More
There are reports just coming in that Iran has seized 1 2 3 (?!) British-linked oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. This is in response to analogous British piracy off Gibraltar a few weeks ago. Anyhow I suppose we will soon see how special the "special relationship" between the US and the UK really is.... Read More
This is not meant so much to be an "editorial" post as a set of notes for future reference purposes, although it is hoped that my readers may find them useful as well. Summary of a couple of FOM polls of Russians on China: Russian Interest Towards China (2015) China (2018) (1) As of 2015,... Read More
So apparently the US decided to step up its sanctions on the evil mullahs and gas killing animal Assad by banning the popular multiplayer video game League of Legends in those countries. Anyhow, apart from illustrating the schizophrenia of the USG - do they expect gamers to rise up against those regimes and do what... Read More
So protesters have stormed the Georgian Parliament in Tbilisi after a protest over Russian MP Sergey Gavrilov being allowed to address an international assembly of Orthodox Christian MPs there.
Discuss the recent Iranian attack (or "attack") on the oil tankers, and the recent Iranian shootdown of the $200 million American drone (allegedly over international airspace - Iran denies it) here. *** I have discussed the consequences of a major US - Iran war in previous posts. I don't have much more to add at... Read More
Albeit with a minor adjustment for reality that was not to the advantage of our unfortunate patient. Dmitry Tymchuk was a svidomy activist and "information warrior" whose Facebook postings were followed by 270,000 people. He was also a friend of the obese toad Anton Gerashchenko, who set up a website hosting a hit list that... Read More
The NYT has reported that US cyberwar unit has placed malware in Russia's electric grid that could potentially shut it down. It also alleges that Trump has been kept out of the loop on this decision. My short take is that this is a nothingburger aimed primarily at US domestic consumption. We know that there... Read More
As I have blogged before (see "2.c. The Persian Gulf" in this article), Iran's best chance to substantially shut down the Strait of Hormuz is to lay mines, then target US minesweeping vessels. They are far less well defended than its capital ships, and more fragile than the double-hulled, compartmentalized behemoths that constitute modern oil... Read More
First, you have the obvious false flag in the Gulf of Oman, which Pompeo is already blaming on Iran. Even though one of the tankers in question was Japanese, with whose PM the Iranians were meeting on that very day. Plus there is the fact that the Japanese ship - which was coming from Saudi... Read More
Back in the mid-2000s, in a conversation with a Taiwanese exchange student, the topic somehow turned to international relations (proof that I am not making this up just because it's now a hot topic). I recall asking him what he thought would happen if China was to invade. His response? He thought that a good... Read More
Guardian: Ukraine president offers Russians citizenship in snub to Putin I take back everything bad I ever wrote about Zelensky - not when it emerges that he is my faithful reader! I strongly approve of the Ukraine giving out passports to Russians. No oppressed Russian should be denied the opportunity to participate in Ukraine's vibrant... Read More
RT is now reporting that Putin said Russia may offer fast-track citizenship to all Ukrainians at the Belt and Road summit in Beijing. He has also reacted forcefully to critics of giving Donbass residents citizenship: So what did I tell you? This as good as confirms that PUTLER reads my blog. Back in October 2018,... Read More
Putin has just signed a law on simplified citizenship for residents of the LDNR. Any person with LDNR residency documents now has the right to apply for Russian citizenship, and can expect an answer within three months. Citizenship is immediately conferred upon a positive decision. Comments: 1. Fundamentally, this is the humanitarian thing to do,... Read More
I looked at this question in depth in 2016 (see "Trump Is Factually Right on Crimea"). TLDR: Yes, the did, and overwhelmingly so.
My post about how it is very likely that Julian Assange sought asylum in the Russian Embassy before being refused has met some criticism, as well as outright allegations of making things up and being a Russophobe CIA troll. Consequently, I feel the need to clear up a few issues. Am I a lying homosexual... Read More
Map of how often countries vote with the US at the UN. One of your first, more elementary considerations should be that your target country would actually be willing to give you political asylum. This rules out pretty much the entire West, and America's various vassal states in the Third World. This is the relatively... Read More
So it's pretty clear from the exit polls that Zelensky and Poroshenko are going to be the ones duking it out in the second round. Turnout has falle
So Russiagate 2017 ends in Muellergate 2019. As was pretty clear at the start - as people such as Glenn Greenwald, Aaron Mate, Robert Parry, and Alexander Mercouris have been writing all these years. Manafort, its most prominent casualty, had worked to draw the Ukraine in the West's orbit (hilariously, he kind of belatedly succeeded).... Read More
The latest polls, jointly conducted by KIIS (Ukraine) and Levada (Russia), show that the collapse in Ukrainian sentiment towards Russia may be turning a corner.
Well this was unexpected. But Kazakhstan's President Nazarbayev, who has effectively led the country since 1989, is stepping down and handing over power to the head of the ruling party until a replacement could be found. I wrote about him here: In short, [the secret of his success] is pragmatism over ideology. The narrow-minded nationalist... Read More
This is a very good summary and syncs with how I view things. *** To be fair, I respect Mr. Martyanov’s views and also read his blog regularly. It’s true as well that China’s SSN fleet remains a relative weakness, so even in my opinion he’s certainly correct there to an extent. However, I do... Read More
But that doesn't seem to be coming along too well. Remarkably, it's not just the Novorossiya region that is seeing very few defections into schism, but some eastern and otherwise strongly pro-Ukraine regions, such as Poltava. Even Kiev isn't that dense adjusting for population. And this is all despite the official pressure - sometimes backed... Read More
I have already mentioned that there is virtually zero popular support for handing over the Kurils to Japan, so current hopes (and histrionics) on this topic are almost certainly nothing but hot air. I wouldn't even be making this post if not for a new development in this saga - the appearance of concrete numbers... Read More
From a Twitter summary by @PyotrNemets of Xi Jinping's The Governance of China [download].
I just made my debut on Strategic Culture foundation with an article on US suspension of the INF Treaty. Here is what it boils down to, IMO: However, it is with respect to the balance of power in the West Pacific that the restrictions imposed by the INF on the US – but not on... Read More
I wrote why giving away the Kurils (even just two of the islands) to Japan in exchange for fuzzy and unenforceable investment commitments is a really bad idea back in 2010 and I see no cause to change any of that. One big problem, then as now, is that ordinary Russians are against it. The... Read More
Mitleser points to an interesting take on the Huawei Kidnapping: A great explanation of the Huawei Kidnapping, written by a comrade in the Deng Gang Central discord There may be a lot more than meets the eye in Canada’s shock arrest, at US behest, of Huawei’s CFO and heir apparent Meng Wanzhou (link below). Chinese... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.