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 BlogAnatoly Karlin Archive

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I have long advocated that Russian political historiography should de-emphasize combatting the Visegrad/Baltic assault on the Soviet interpretation of history ("we liberated Eastern Europe") and move towards counter-guilt tripping them. It's probably not going to happen soon, because Russian officialese is too invested in its WW2 narrative. That is because Victory is the main legitimizing... Read More
The Chinese describe the concerted campaigns to identify and shame various malefactors as a "human flesh search engine." In China itself, it has been used to identify corruptioneers, sadists, or merely people who have been too outspoken about their dislike for China. In the West, it seems that this role is largely played by the... Read More
Some people on here and Twitter were sure they'd succeed. But they seem to have vanished off the radar in the past couple of days. Few news stories, no updates on /r/worldnews. What happened? In reality, as I pointed out, they were almost certain to fail. To get a color revolution going, you need a... Read More
In my previous post, I wrote about the broad outlines of the constitutional changes proposed by Putin, but without speculating too much on their import. I will do that now in more detail. *** Putin is looking for a retirement plan that guarantees the security of the system he has built, but in a way... Read More
The data points keep getting better and better. We now know that 10/11 missiles hit (up from the initial estimate of 6/11). The damage they did has also been upgraded, with a Danish soldier speaking of many helicopters destroyed (as opposed to the US claim of one damaged) and 11 US soldiers reported injured. More... Read More
Major announcements in this State of the Nation speech on Jan 15, 2020. Here is a very brief summary to get the conversation started. Immediate politics: The Medvedev government has resigned The little-known Mikhail Mishustin, former head of the tax service, has been appointed as PM. He is an AI-loving technocrat who reduced uncollected VAT... Read More
The Witcher (Wiedźmin) is a fantasy series by Polish writer Andrzej Sapkowski that was mostly written in the 1990s. It is set in a European-inspired continent riven between constantly feuding kingdoms, ruled behind the scenes by a cabal of mages, while monsters from Indo-European folklore reive on the hapless, mudfooted peasants. A class of specially-trained... Read More
To do a color revolution, you generally need: Significant proportion of the population going out into the streets (not just university students and office plankton). Some degree of elite defection. Trump's bombast regardless - congratulations to him on learning Farsi and becoming an Iran expert in the past 48 hours - I don't see either... Read More
The Iran War has been called off for the time being, but the threat of a renewed crisis and future escalation remain. The Iranian missile strikes on two US bases in Iraq provide updated data points on how such a clash will go. 1. The most important adjustment we need to make is that Iranian... Read More
The opinion polls in the US show broad based support for escalation with Iran amongst the Republicans (84%), despite their drift towards "America First".
PS. Events overtook my writing of this blog post. Looking forwards to a resolution of the Stealth Question and the Aircraft Carrier Question. How would an Iran War be fought? I already addressed this question on several occasions, most notably on The Road to World War III (see 2.c. The Persian Gulf), as well as... Read More
I am not an Iran expert, and will not pretend that I have magically become one in the past few days. Nor do I see much point in a detailed chronicle of the latest developments and Tweets - for that, there is, say, /r/SyrianCivilWar. Instead, I think it would be more productive to highlight a... Read More
New Eurobarometer 493 poll (October 2019) [download data] largely confirms what I wrote about this last year.
Egor Kholmogorov contemplates the meaning and future of Russia in the orchard next to the Tsiolkovsky Museum. Donate to him: ***
Map of Spanish PISA results via /u/bulfcc on Reddit: Not good, but a predictable pattern. *** Thanks to another Twitter user (@caodivino), I learned that there are also regional IQ results for Portugal:
Sugonyaev, Konstantin, and Andrei Grigoriev. 2019. “Эффект Флинна в России.” Экспериментальная Психология 12 (4): 50–61. [PDF] This is the latest paper based on Sugonyaev's n=238,363 database of Russian online test-takers run by the Ministry of Defense. Refer to my two existing articles on this for more details on methodology: Largest Survey of Russian IQ Yet... Read More
Some typical views driving about Volokolamsk. This is a monument to the Bus Driver. The T-34 monument, a hallmark of small Russian towns that were heavily afflicted by the war.
The PISA 2018 report has detailed regional data for Canada, Spain, and Kazakhstan (as well as more limited regional data for eight other countries), which you can find on pp.255-260 of PISA 2018 Results (Volume I) [excel]. We have already had maps of regional PISA-based IQ in Italy, Spain, Russia, and Germany, but this is... Read More
PISA 2018 results dropping in a few hours. Use this thread for discussing them. In particular, I am excited to finally get some definitive answers on the Ukrainian Question. (And Belarus). *** UPDATE: The results are in. Raw data.
As I have written in prior posts, Russian demographics continues to improve as it has throughout the Putin era (Russian Demographics in 2019). Life expectancy is going up very rapidly, constituting a new record of 73.6 years as of the first eight months of this year. Deaths from external causes continue to plummet, including homicide... Read More
Is the talking point I'd use if I was in the business of making pro-Russia propaganda. Poll: апр. 92 апр. 09 май. 11 май. 12 май. 13 май. 14 мар. 15 май. 15 май. 16 May 17 Sept 19 Gathering documents for exit <1 1 1 1 <1 1 1 1 1 1 <1 Have... Read More
There's one crucial difference, and not many people seem to recognize its importance. "ZOG" pretty much controls the US, which has recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital in defiance of the rest of the world (and 63% of US voters), curtailed its otherwise extensive freedom of speech protections by criminalizing the BDS movement, and whose Conservatism... Read More
Rindermann, Heiner, David Becker, and Thomas R. Coyle. 2020. “Survey of Expert Opinion on Intelligence: Intelligence Research, Experts’ Background, Controversial Issues, and the Media.” Intelligence 78 (January): 101406. Experts (N max = 102 answering) on intelligence completed a survey about IQ research, controversies, and the media. The survey was conducted in 2013 and 2014 using... Read More
After an epic search for one of the ten Teremok restaurants in Moscow that serve the Немясо (Beyond Meat) patty... ... I finally found one and sampled it. The CEO of Teremok is an incredibly based and redpilled man, who can be viewed as Russia's equivalent of Chick-fil-A's Dan Cathy. But I don't think his... Read More
Tessa Violet is an American singer of modest popularity and talent who kick-started her career by video-blogging and lip syncing songs. Here is her most popular music video to date: This isn't exactly a pop culture blog, so why am I writing about her? Basically her imperial flag-colored hair has made her into a minor... Read More
doomed-earth
That Which Withholds Eschaton: The Katechon Hypothesis for Resolving the Fermi Paradox
I have been mulling over the ideas in this article since early 2016, when they crystallized in more or less their current form. I am not quite sure whether these ideas are rather important, or the ravings of a lunatic. But I am certainly glad to be able to finally unload them from the confines... Read More
"Intelligence researcher" doesn't exactly have a reputation as a safe, uncontroversial profession. There are perhaps 200 people in the world who do that full-time. Despite this small population, we seem to get a story - often multiple stories - of them getting denounced, defamed, deplatformed, threatened, and even physically attacked every single year. Thanks to... Read More
So about Polish elections. Almost everyone familiar with the endless discussions on HBD/Hajnal Line would be familiar with this basic electoral map of Poland. AIDS map.
Some interesting estimates of the numbers of foreign fighters that participated in the Donbass War from 2014-2019 from a report [PDF] by the Soufan Center. (h/t Kholmogorov)
Meduza is a Latvia-based news website that was started up by journalists who had departed Lenta.ru after a change in management. While it has produced some genuine investigative work, its geopolitical orientations are decidedly anti-Russian and pro-Western, e.g. focusing on the travails of a few cherry-picked Russian businessmen in the Crimea, while neglecting to mention... Read More
In my Age of Malthusian Industrialism concept (see archive), I explore the possibility of a future scenario in which technology stagnates due to problems becoming harder and dysgenic reproduction patterns. Meanwhile, the demographic transition will be reversed, since fertility preferences are heritable, and ultra-competitive in a post-Malthusian world. This may eventually bring the world population... Read More
All this brouhaha over Russiagate and to think that in the end it was Ukraine that did it... :) Anyhow: I am pretty sure this is a trap (for the Dems), who are initiating impeachment without even knowing what's on the damn transcript. It will be nice to see some questions on how exactly Hunter... Read More
You can read the report with all the polls here. Macron is currently making some moves to normalize EU-Russia relations, which hasn't been covered much because the MSM would much rather blast "Putler puppet" Trump and the now-departed Salvini for it. The actual explanation is a lot more banal. It has nothing to do with... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.