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 BlogAnatoly Karlin Archive

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Last year’s summary: Russian Demographics in 2018 [2016; 2014]. Preliminary data for 2018 is in. Births, deaths, and natural increase in Russia, 1946-2018. There were about 1,599,316 (10.9/1,000) births in 2018, a decline of 5.4% relative to the 1,689,884 (11.5/1,000) births in 2017. There were about 1,817,710 (12.4/1,000) deaths in 2018, a decline of 0.4%... Read More
Russia detains U.S. founder of Baring Vostok private equity group: *** EDIT: Consensus of more informed people seems to be that this is narrowly related to a commercial dispute. He is also apparently far more prominent in finance and US-Russia business relations than I gave him credit for. I am not involved in either of... Read More
When I suggested that in 2-3 more decades Russia will become responsible for the Holocaust, with attendant criminal penalties for its denial in many Western countries, it was said three quarters in jest. But perhaps it should have been fully half serious. But more to the point, I recently came across this infographic of Ukraine's... Read More
Fake Russian gun rights organization that doesn't exist because Russians are too oppressed by Putler to have any independent opinions of their own. A couple of days ago, The New Republic published an astoundingly well-researched longread by James Bamford about the Butina saga. An anonymous commenter has summarized its key points: -Mueller wasn’t interested in... Read More
The Kremlin "ideologue" Vladislav Surkov has recently written an article for Nezavisimaya Gazeta called "Putin's Long State." It posits that the Putinist system's power stems from its unique ability to "listen and understand" Russia's "deep people" - in contradistinction to the "deep states" that control the West beneath their democratic facades. This means that the... Read More
Who is the only very prominent person in the Russian elites whom Navalny hasn’t gone to great lengths to criticize? Which major state-owned corporation hasn’t had an investigative dossier written about it by the Anti-Corruption Fund (even though an ordinary analyst at Sberbank's investment arm managed to find no shortage of very suspicious things about... Read More
A couple of days ago, the Irish conservative journal The Burkean published an essay by its editor Michael O'Dwyer Connolly about the failure of the Convergence Hypothesis: Reasonably anodyne, patently commonsense - even if the article borrows perhaps a bit too gene
My post on the maximum world population drew a large number of "powerful takes" - unfortunately, powerful in the bad sense of the word - idiotic trolling (humorous trolling is allowed), ad hominems, conspiracy SIFs, negative value added, etc. While I appended the MORE tag to a bunch of them, I was also forced to... Read More
Long time no Open Thread! Will try to return to a weekly OT schedule henceforth. The "core" of my series on the Age of Malthusian Industrialism is done. Here is a quick table of contents: Original article introducing the concept: A Short History of the Third Millennium AoMI I: Where Do Babies Come From? AoMI... Read More
Melinda C. Mills & & Charles Rahal (2019): A scientometric review of genome-wide association studies There are many more GWAS being carried out over the years, with much larger sample sizes: Japan's prominence is perhaps surprising.
Cool, useful resource here: Границы России 1462-2018 гг Associated video below: Couple of infographics to go along with that: Russian territory over time. Territories gained/lost by each ruler. Biggest gainz: Mikhail Romanov & Alexey Mikhailovich (Siberia). Biggest losers: Gorbachev, Lenin
Just discovered this 2016 poll (Dalia) on percentage of people identifying as LGBT in Europe. Largely unsurprising. As I keep insisting, there's something with Poland. 2.5x as many LGBT amongst youth as in Hungary. I think my prediction that Poland will legalize gay marriage by 2028 might just turn out correct. What did surprise me... Read More
The title is a bit of an exaggeration. Even back in 2010, there was plenty to criticize Putin for, and since then, the details haven't even changed that much so far as I'm concerned (e.g. corruption, bureaucracy, white elephants). And it's not that I have been unremittingly anti-Putin in the past few years, regardless of... Read More
Now here's the problem: Carbon taxes are extremely regressive. Furthermore, they hit hardest precisely those groups - the rural and small town blue-collars of the US - who have been hit hardest by economic globalization, which massively benefited the transnational oligarchy and the developing world but left the Fishtowns behind in a haze of deindustrialization... Read More
A German writes about Russians in the NYT: Now it's not that he is necessarily wrong. There is surely some genetic component to corruption proclivities, and it is certainly plausible that it is significantly higher in Russia (or Italy) than in North-West Europe. But what is hilarious is that this comes from the employer of... Read More
From a Twitter summary by @PyotrNemets of Xi Jinping's The Governance of China [download]. Now while I realize such official tracts are most often just mainstream political pablum in any country, I think highlighting 19th century Russian literature - and this selection isn't exactly very congruent with official Chinese ideology - is quite telling. His... Read More
So I finally have all the books I own in one physical location. There's ~100 of them. My stock of physical books actually peaked in the mid-2000s, at ~500, before I left Britain for the US. The appearance of e-books and transportation costs-forced elimination of my more r-selected books has steadily whittled down that number,... Read More
I just made my debut on Strategic Culture foundation with an article on US suspension of the INF Treaty. Here is what it boils down to, IMO: However, it is with respect to the balance of power in the West Pacific that the restrictions imposed by the INF on the US – but not on... Read More
Without going into any precise numbers, my feeling is that Kamala Harris will win the Dem nomination, Trump will be impeached (but not convicted), and Harris will win the 2020 elections. Too many scandals (fair and fake) will be weighing Trump down, he'll lose Florida thanks to felons getting the vote, and the advantages of... Read More
Commenter Swedish Family on BHL and Houellebecq on Russia: Seeing Bernard-Henri Lévy's name here made me dig out an old book of his, Public Enemies, a book of Lévy's mail correspondence with novelist Michel Houellebecq in the spring of 2008 (so after Putin's Munich speech but half a year before Lehman Brothers and the war... Read More
This is the fourth in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism. In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world's remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity's capacity for collective... Read More
Ooh, scary. dis gon b gud
The dawn of Russia's era of mass restaurant outings - which began in the early 2000s, in line with an unprecedented expansion in Russian personal prosperity - was dominated by sushi. But when I returned in 2016, it was already clear that era was in decline. Sure, there were - and are - still plenty... Read More
I wrote why giving away the Kurils (even just two of the islands) to Japan in exchange for fuzzy and unenforceable investment commitments is a really bad idea back in 2010 and I see no cause to change any of that. One big problem, then as now, is that ordinary Russians are against it. The... Read More
Emil Kirkegaard et al. (2019) have just released Polygenic Scores Mediate the Jewish Phenotypic Advantage in Educational Attainment and Cognitive Ability Compared With Catholics and Lutherans: One rejoinder to claims of significant race differences in IQ is that, despite the overwhelming abundance
The reason that I maintain that svidomy are a subset of sovoks is because they don't just topple mass produced monuments to Lenin - they seek to rewrite their entire Russian imperial heritage. For instance, this is what the Maidanists and their Western supporters refer to as "de-Communization". A couple of days ago, the Suvorov... Read More
Mitleser points to an interesting take on the Huawei Kidnapping: A great explanation of the Huawei Kidnapping, written by a comrade in the Deng Gang Central discord There may be a lot more than meets the eye in Canada’s shock arrest, at US behest, of Huawei’s CFO and heir apparent Meng Wanzhou (link below). Chinese... Read More
Female earnings decline after the birth of their first child. But according to a new paper released a few days ago: Kleven et al. (2018): Child Penalties Across Countries ... it happens to markedly different extents across different countries and cultural blocs. Robert Dur summarizes: The earnings hit is surprisingly well correlated to public opinion... Read More
In my third post on the Age of Malthusian Industrialism, I suggested: Happily, it looks like some people have already started doing that. Barban, Nicola et al. (2017) - Genome-wide analysis identifies 12 loci influencing human reproductive behavior Here's a very interesting graph from the paper:
This is the third in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism. In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world's remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity's capacity for collective... Read More
While searching my name in Google Scholar, I came across the following... interesting article: USING THE TOPIC OF MIGRATION BY PROKREMLIN PROPAGANDA: CASE STUDY OF SLOVAKIA. Š IŽAK - Journal of Comparative Politics, 2019 - search.ebscohost.com Here is the journal website, Journal of Comparative Politics is the semiannually journal of the Consortium of three Central... Read More
Caracas, Venezuela. One curious thing about Venezuela that few people seem to have remarked upon is that Chavez and Maduro are not really all that hardcore about their class war. The latter assumed the powers of Congress in 2017, but didn't send armed men to round up the querulous parliamentarians. They continued to yack and... Read More
Source: Wikipedia. China has finally come out (functionally) in support of Maduro. With tens of billions of invested in Venezuela, it has more absolutely (if not relatively) at stake there than Russia. It is good to see China taking a more assertive stance. The EU hasn't overtly supported Guaido, but it has called for new... Read More
Cicerone comments: All valid, excellent points. The UK was still a bit in front of Germany, though I agree that it's really France that stands out. Fertility rates in UK, Germany, France 1800-2015. There's a huge variety of other factors to consider, for instance: 1. Starting genotypic fertility preferences (e.g. during the medieval age and... Read More
I suppose we will now see whether the failings of half-assed socialism and the tried and tested techniques of color revolution by way of Uncle Sam will win out over Cuban intelligence officers and a nascent social credit system by way of Uncle Chang. Idiot Sechin has trouble getting back money even now (unlike the... Read More
This is the second in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism. In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world's remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity's capacity for collective... Read More
This is a Russia-specific offshoot to my previous post Where Do Babies Come from? For reference purposes, here is how Russia's actual TFR has developed since the end of WW2. Since I last posted substantially on the topic of Russia fertility preferences in 2009-2010, a lot more data has come in. Here is a survey... Read More
This is the first in a series of posts about the demographics of the coming Age of Malthusian Industrialism. In the decades and centuries to come, technological progress will slow to a crawl, as dysgenic reproduction patterns deplete the world's remaining smart fractions (assuming that there are no abrupt discontinuities in humanity's capacity for collective... Read More
Financial Times: This looks like a minor growing trend. The Soviet Union sunk untold billions in development aid to the Third World, for questionable gain, and was rewarded with a knife in its back every so often. Bu
Matt Forney (now at Terror House Mag) is a manosphere/conservative writer who moved to Eastern Europe a couple of years ago. He had excellent coverage of Hungary and Orban's politics at his Medium blog, which he unfortunately deleted. However, you can still check out his excellent post 3 Depressing Realities About Living In Eastern Europe... Read More
But for all that, the US is remarkably civil. To date, 10 people have DIED in the French yellow vests protests. That's a Charlottesville every few days. Meanwhile, the US is having a national scandal over some people shouting and sneering at each other. *** Moreover, now that we're on an Americanophile tangent: There's some... Read More
A reader (and generous contributor) asks: Real life example of a trend I reported on a few months ago. I'll offer some of my own thoughts, but since there are plenty of East Europeans here, I am also opening it up for wider discussion. *** First, I assume this is obvious and that you have... Read More
Printout:
I have always been fascinated by the blogger Audacious Epigone's theory about Generation Zyklon - the surprising and counterintuitive idea that America's youngest cohort are rejective progressive propaganda in the schools and media, and becoming as "based" as their Silent forefathers. It's an important question, after all, and one that will determine to what extent... Read More
A few months ago Ron Unz, suggested I write an article about Bill Browder and the Magnitsky Act. I said I would think about it, but that I was not the most qualified person for the job. I have never investigated this affair deeply myself, so unless I was to spend a few days if... Read More
spandrell [Korean link]: Deep history in action? Vietnam: Rebelling against China since before Christ - turns commie (if with a marked nationalist brand, as Linh Dinh will tell you); hates China anyway, and building defense ties with the US. Korea: Near always a loyal vassal to China - gets bifurcated thanks largely to China, becomes... Read More
I am by no means a Serbia expert, and have to rely on other, more informed people - e.g., a couple of Serbian nationalist acquaintances - to tell me what is really going on there. Anyhow, here's the critical part which they are all agreed upon. Despite his "reputation" in the West, Vucic is not... Read More
Epstein's book about race differences in sport published in the West vs. a Russian translation of Dutton & Lynn's book about race differences in sport published in Russia. :LOL:
Further to my last post on the matter, I spent this evening collating all the most interesting maps I have on Russia, which I just published on my website: (Why not here? Because I want it to be a page that I can keep editing indefinitely - adding to, and occasionally, deleting. For instance, since... Read More
Brockhaus and Efron Encyclopedic Dictionary (1890-1907) on illegitimate births: Illegitimate births / 100 births in Russia in 1892: St. Petersburg 15.92 Smolenskaya 1.93 Moscow 13.65 Kazan 1.90 Lifland 6.36 Mogilev 1.89 Estland 4.46 Vladimirskaya 1.86 Arkhangelsk 4.33 Kharkiv 1.84 Kovno 4.12 Tverskaya 1.82 Perm 4.07 Olonets 1.79 Yaroslavskaya 4.03 Kaluzhskaya 1.75 Pskovskaya 3.98 Bessarabian 1.74... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.