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 BlogAnatoly Karlin Archive

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Bad news: No real poasting from August 13-21. Good news: There'll soon be travel reports for Novgorod and Bryansk (probably Ryazan too before the month is out). As my travel reports seem to be well received, I'll make a note to start doing more of them in the future. I have recent material/observations on a... Read More
As of this day, less than 2/3 of the way through 2018, I have written 170,072 words [all of 2017: 221,850] of text in 198 [262] poasts. More people have viewed these poasts than during all of 2017. You have contributed 36,000 comments, which is already almost double last year's numbers - and more than... Read More
Central Bucharest, from my Airbnb apartment. *** Long awaited RO-POAST is finally here! As many of you know, I was in Romania early this June. Why Romania? It was nowhere near the top of my to-go list. As with Portugal, the adventure fell into my lap - one of my friends was getting married there.... Read More
* NBC: Trump administration to hit Russia with new sanctions for Skripal poisoning The sanctions are directly based on
W.L. Chen et al. (2006): Effects of Cobalt-60 Exposure on Health of Taiwan Residents Suggest New Approach Needed in Radiation Protection
Today is the ten year anniversary of the South Ossetian War of 2008, in which the Georgian hothead President Mikheil Saakashvili - acting on muddled signals from the US Embassy - attacked the breakaway province, killing a dozen Russian peacekeepers in the process. Here in turn are some of my muddled recollections about that distant... Read More
Buzzfeed recently had an article in which they reveal how Henry Kissinger has been lobbying Trump and Jared Kushner about cooperating with Russia to box in China. The idea is to pull of the reverse of what Nixon accomplished in the 1970s, patching up relations with Red China to exert more pressure on the more... Read More
Dishing out so many red pills you just know the Illuminati (aka ZOG) had to shut him down. Anyhow, Deus Ex was right about everything: The collective CNN/FOX/Buzzfeed filtered through Google and Facebook => Picus News. Infowars => Lazarus. Unz Review => Samizdat. /pol/ = Silhouette.
I realize this is sarcasm, but let's entertain this seriously anyway. General Ripper (LeMay, McArthur), Dr. Strangelove (Edward Teller, John von Neumann), etc. - they all sort of had a defensive point in terms of utilitarian ethics. Here is the choice they'd have faced in the late 1940's-mid 1950's, when America's nuclear stockpile soared into... Read More
The nuking of Hiroshima and Nagasaki is honestly one of the single most effectively altruistic actions in all of human history. By helping persuade the Japanese to surrender (they were open to doing that with preconditions, but that was hilariously at odds with the military balance by mid-1945), the Americans helped make the world a... Read More
This is essentially a short history of the 20th century from the point of view of HBD realism and the maxim that "population is power." This century turned out to be an "American Century." But it wasn't obvious that it was going to be that way - while the United States was almost predestined to... Read More
Pursuant to the discussions at the last big thread, I am making a quick post with my assessments of how realistic various "transhumanist" spheres of technology are. *** Has been, is, and will continue to happen - and will affect lower-IQ occupations sooner. Since it takes IQ to design and maintain the robots, this will... Read More
Temperatures in the European Arctic have soared above 32C this past week: Immediate benefits: Russians can go swimming and sunning in the Baltics or even the White Sea. A couple more degrees, and it might become competitive with southern resorts during summer. Climate Reanalyzer: Temperature anomalies on August 1, 2018. In 2010, the Baltica became... Read More
The Russian Empire, like most European countries, had very liberal gun laws, with no significant restrictions on sales, possession, or open carry. Chelyabinsk gun shop around 1900. After 1905, you needed the permission of the local head of police to buy pistols and revolvers, but this was a very quick affair and granted as a... Read More
Sign the petition here: Drop or dismiss all charges against Russian human rights activist Maria Butina. Don’t Let Maria Butina Go To Prison For Supporting American 2nd Amendment Values! Right to Bear Arms, Russia’s premier gun rights organization, wishes to express its grave concern at what we see as the politically-motivated prosecution of our founder,... Read More
Global Times: China may reward families with more children next year: demographers. It's funny to see China going from a rigid One Child Policy to Russian/Hungarian-style pro-natalism within the space of no more than four years. However, such turnarounds aren't exactly unprecedented in the history of Communist regimes. Mao was a pro-natalist. The One Child... Read More
How do you talk about dysgenic trends in intelligence without coming off as bespectacled old geezer in a tweed suit with a pipe in one hand and a leatherbound copy of The Rising Tide of Color Against White World-Supremacy in the other*? We need something hip, cool. Everyone knows about the FLynn Effect. I suggest... Read More
Vladimir Voinovich (1986) - Moscow 2042 Rating: 2/5 TLDR: Good perspective on sovok-liberal Russophobia. Vladimir Voinovich died the other day. In the Anglosphere, this only seems to have been noticed by RFERL, where this Serb/Jewish literary dissident worked during his exile from the USSR in the 1980s. Like Solzhenitsyn, Voinovich opposed the Soviet regime -... Read More
(h/t Hannah Gais) This is gonna be a black author... *checks* Yep, it's a black author alright. It's always a black author. Haldeman: "Not intellectual enough. Not smart enough... not smart enough to be spies." There were still conservative boomer doofuses casually interchanging Soviet/Russian as late as the Iraq War, but I think that finally... Read More
Sergey Prokudin-Gorsky (1911): General view of the Church of St. John Chrysostom in Korovniki (from the mill) from the west. It is a curious thing that one of the most important stories of the Russian Civil War doesn't even have an English language entry in Wikipedia. Google results either lead to fleeting mentions in obscure... Read More
One persistent thing I have noticed in this recent saga is the refusal to believe that there is any civil society in Russia that is even marginally independent of Putler and ROG. Clarification: While there are genuine pro-"democracy" (pro-LGBT, pro-Ukrainian, etc.) organizations in Russia, which are of course viciously repressed, there are certainly no such... Read More
Gargantuan (174 pages) paper with an staggering amount of data about family systems and kinship related institutions by Jonathan Schulz et al. (2018): The Origins of WEIRD Psychology (h/t @pseudoerasmus). Our approach integrates three insights. The first, drawing on anthropology, reveals that the institutions built around kinship and marriage vary greatly across societies (21–23) and... Read More
Today is the centenary of the crushing of the Yaroslavl Rebellion against Bolshevik tyranny. I will have a post on that imminently. Romania travel post is still in the works. Given previous prediction failures that I would publish it "within a week," I will just settle on saying that it will likely be "sometime soon."... Read More
The Tweet in question. Incidentally, kudos to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for this unexpectedly strong show of support. #FreeMariaButina As I have pointed out, Maria Butina is neither a spy, nor even a Russian agent: US Arrests Russia's Foremost 2nd Amendment Activist. Unless this is rapidly resolved, hopefully Russia will escalate with symmetrical... Read More
It has been noted in the HBDsphere that the Christian Arabs sorry N.N. Taleb, I meant Phoenicians, Copts, Maronites, Alawites, etc., have been rather successful relative to their Muslim neighbors. This is true for economic achievement (e.g. Carlos Slim, Steve Jobs) and for intellectual achievement (e.g. Albert Hourani, Skin In The Game man). Why? One... Read More
The Knesset has just formally passed a Basic Law stipulating that Israel is "the historical homeland of the Jewish people and they have an exclusive right to national self-determination in it." Jerusalem is furthermore defined as the "complete and untied... capital of Israel." Power summary: Jews constitute 75% of the Israeli population, but they have... Read More
So I was at World Russia Forum 2018 today: I was a panelist at WRF 2012 and WRF 2013 in Washington D.C. It is a semi-annual event, alternately hosted in Washington D.C. and Moscow, meant to bring together Russian and American experts, academics, journalists, and policy-makers in an effort to improve relations between these two... Read More
Approximately 100,000 Russians took part in the remembrance march marking the centenary of the murder of the Romanov family. Just for context, this now seemingly remote event, in a regional city with 10% of the population of Moscow, drew as many people as did the very largest protests of the Putin era. It is also... Read More
maria-butina-1
As I suspected, Trump's meeting with Putin did indeed turn out to be a damp squib, at least relative to the unrealistic expectations that all sorts of strongly ideological camps had built up around it. Putin repeated his insistence that Russia did not meddle in the US elections, congratulated Trump on North Korea, acknowledged that... Read More
Q: Is it true that there is freedom of speech in the United Kingdom, just like in the USA? A: In principle, yes. In the USA, you can stand in front of the White House in Washington, DC, and yell, "Down with Trump!", and you will not be punished. Equally, you can also stand in... Read More
So I know everyone is in a GET HYPE mood for this, fueled by loony interpretations ranging from THE RESISTANCE's idea that Trump is going there to receive his annual performance review from DARK LORD OF THE KREMLIN, to Trump having chosen Helsinki specifically for Finland's symbolic value as having played a role in the... Read More
Good to find a place where Pluto is still a strong, independent planet. Been a long time since we had a proper Open Thread. Reminder that all footballing discussions should go to the other Open Thread. Several people here have expressed an interest in an informal meetup [discussion: 1, 2]. I am open to this... Read More
This is hopefully the last football thread for the next two years. Please try to keep all footballing talk to this thread in the next few days. I suspect that Belgium will beat England to take third place during the penalties, while France will beat Croatia by 2-1 or something like that. At this point,... Read More
So as I said I'm supporting Perfidious Albion over the Ustaše today, but convinced by Marko Marjanović's apologetics, I will settle back into neutrality once the Finals roll by. I have a feeling that the Eternal Anglo will win today, anyway (and yes, I wrote this sentence before their goal at 5 minutes). But at... Read More
In a little-noticed milestone, US crude oil production in March-April 2018 exceeded previous all-time monthly peak of 310 million barrels October 1970. It is also extremely likely that production during 2018 will exceed the record year of 1970. So much for #peakoil. In all fairness, it's not so much that their models were flawed -... Read More
Can the Ukrainians really be trusted? Andreev, E. et al (2013) - Comparing alcohol mortality in Tsarist and contemporary Russia: is the current situation historically unique? This is the question that arose on finding that paper. Probably not! Anyhow, AP, you're welcome to this latest nugget of Ukrotriumphalism. Fig. 1. The rate of sudden male... Read More
"15,000 African refugees could be resettled in Stavropol," read the Komsomolskaya Pravda headline, as displayed on Kholmogorov's latest post to appear on my Facebook feed. So this is the terminal stage of Putinism, I thought. Infinity Refugees. It is as if the kremlins looked at what is happening in the US and Western Europe and... Read More
One of the quainter, more obscure attractions in Moscow is the Museum of Soviet Arcade Machines. The post-Stalinist USSR aimed to provide a good material living standard to its people, and technologies were bought from the West towards that end (e.g. the classic Lada was a copy of an Italian Fiat car). Ergo for arcade... Read More
My apologies, it was all my fault. So long as I was castigating the Russian team, it kept winning. But today I got too clever by half and jinxed it all. This implicitly assumed Russia would beat Croatia and thus nullified my previous prediction: Go frogs, go waffles, go whatever it is that Croatians eat.... Read More
Alexey Bessudnov (2016) - Ethnic Hierarchy and Public Attitudes towards Immigrants in Russia Interesting paper on attitudes towards immigrants in Russia. Big sample (n=24,500). It is written from very neoliberalism.txt perspective (e.g. Ctrl-F on "xeno-" yields 37 matches; "prejudice" yields 17 matches), but data is data. Highlights: 1. Russian regions by "xenophobia."
I have long been of the opinion that the only real countries are the playable ones from the Civilization video game series (and DLCs don't count!). So I am liking Thorfinnsson's sizzlingly powerful idea of Trump annexing Canada more and more. The moral case: They’re anti-American and constantly inventing dubious reasons as to why Canada... Read More
Wiltshire pair 'poisoned by nerve agent' Alexander Mercouris has written at length about the outsized impact of British individuals, especially in the intelligence services, on pushing the Russiagate conspiracy theory to annul Trump's stated desire for rapprochement with Russia. With the Trump-Putin summit in Finland coming up on July 16, the timing is certainly impeccable.... Read More
The FLynn Effect has not acted uniformly across the various domains of intelligence. To put it very roughly, in the past century, the developed world has seen a two S.D. improvement on Raven's Progressive Matrices, hardly any improvement in verbal or Backward Digit Span tests, and a one S.D. improvement in various picture arrangement and... Read More
Nicholas II & family, 1914. Colorized by Olga. As the perfect companion piece to his takedown of Stalin, here’s Egor Kholmogorov's appraisal of Nicholas II, styled an “anti-Stalin”, written during his recent trip to Crimea, which provoked another round of teeth-gnashing among Neo-Stalinists and Sovietophiles. It should also be norws that a recent poll shows... Read More
In the past few days, VCIOM released the results of a large opinion poll about Russian attitudes towards the Revolution, the Civil War, and various historical figures. The results largely speak for themselves, but to identify the most important elements: 1. Soviet attitudes are dying out. While older generations are still highly "pro-Soviet" historically, attitudes... Read More
Under the measures announced on June 15, in the immediate glowing wake of Russia's 5:0 football victory over Saudi Arabia, the pensions age is to rise from 60 for men/55 for women to 65 for men/63 for women. It will be a gradual increase, with the full increase for men only being attained in 2028,... Read More
Vasily Vereshchagin. Apotheosis of War (1871). There have recently been discussions on Mesoamerican civilizations prior to the Spanish incursions on this blog, in light of the recently unearthed racks of thousands of skulls sacrificed in honor of the blood gods. Interesting fact about Tenochtitlan, capital of the Aztec Empire: With a population of 250,000 in... Read More
So the results are in, and... Erdogan wins 52.4%, winning the Presidency - a much more powerful position after the 2017 referendum - on the first round. The AKP just failed to get a majority of seats, though it comfortable clears that level in coalition with the nationalist MHP. Was there fraud? No hard statistical... Read More
From a new paper by Mingrui Wang and Richard Lynn: It seems that rural Chinese teens in 2006 were already as bright as their urban counterparts in 1988. This is comparable to increases in South Korea between 1970 and 1990. Note that Raven's tests see some of the biggest increases due to the Flynn Effect,... Read More
You will have to excuse the paucity of posting this month. Many things going on. But I hope to get the Romania post out today. I predicted that Russia would win against Saudi Arabia and Egypt (both happened), but would lose against Uruguay. We'll see what happens tomorrow. * Turkey Presidential & legislative elections. My... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.