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Welton vs. Chisala Round II: “Brave and to be Welcomed—But Not Persuasive”
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It is extremely brave of Dr. Chanda Chisala (right) considering the hot water that even writing a critical letter to can get you into, to write a response to my article “Race Denier Chanda Chisala Doesn’t Deserve His 15 Seconds Of Twitter Fame” in the form of “Reply to Lance Welton: Why Blacks Outperform Whites in UK Schools.”

For Dr. Chisala, the fact African immigrant children in the UK score only 8 points lower in their GCSEs (English school leaving certificates taken at 16) demonstrates that race differences in IQ scores might not be genetic. Dr. Chisala doesn’t give the absolute numbers and he accepts that blacks generally do worse than white. But he points out that, in Britain, African-descended blacks, as opposed to West Indian-descended blacks, do almost as well as whites.

I disputed this in my article and in this piece I would like to respond to Dr. Chisala’s criticisms of my original critique. As far as I can see, his response—though brave and to be welcomed—is not persuasive.

African average IQ is 30 points lower than white average IQ. As I showed in my first article, this is almost certainly for genetic reasons, because there are race differences in the percentages of populations carrying alleles associated with extremely high IQ and these very strongly correlate with national differences in average IQ. But in my article, I contended that African immigrants to the UK are likely to be a relatively elite African population and that this would explain why the African-White difference in the UK do not reflect this broader genetic race difference.

Dr. Chisala countered that this hypothesis is unpersuasive because of “Regression to the Mean.” He wrote:

If it is true that the African immigrants are a select group whose IQ is, say 2 standard deviations above the African mean, their children should still regress significantly downwards—regression to the mean.

He then gave an example:

Jensen and others demonstrated that black American parents with relatively high IQ (and high income) still produce children with IQs that are so low that they score lower than poor whites in school tests.

But this is an (albeit common) misunderstanding of what Regression to the Mean actually is. Regression to the Mean does not mean that clever parents will always have children who are less intelligent than they are. If that were the case, we would become continuously less smart every generation and we would eventually have the cognitive abilities of snails.

Regression to the Mean is a statistical phenomenon whereby, if a random variable is extreme on its first measurement, then it will be less so on subsequent measurements.

What this means, in terms of the genetics of human intelligence, is that if two reasonably intelligent parents—for example Einstein’s parents—have a phenomenally clever child with extreme outlier high IQ, then Einstein’s children will probably “regress to the mean”—i.e. they will be similar in their IQ to their grandparents. This is because, argue Edward Dutton and Michael Woodley of Menie in At Our Wits’ End: Why We’re Becoming Less Intelligent and What It Means for the Future, [pp.23-24], Einstein’s outlier higher IQ—this term usually referring to more than 3 SD above the population mean, with the Ashkenazi mean being 112—has come about through unlikely, but possible, genetic combinations (and perhaps also unlikely environmental factors) and these are unlikely to reoccur in his offspring .

Similarly, it is possible that two sets of African American parents, each with IQs of about 85, could have, respectively, a son and a daughter with IQs of 115. If this son and daughter have children together, the children will “regress to the mean” and likely have IQs that are much lower, though pushed to their phenotypic limit due to being raised by intelligent parents.

But this scenario is extremely rare. In general, when African-Americans have IQs of 115 they have inherited this from similarly intelligent parents. They are at the extreme “right tail” of the bell curve of their race’s IQ distribution.

Richard Lynn’s meta-analysis Dysgenics reported [p. 101] that IQ is about 0.8 heritable: your IQ will be very similar to that of your parents. And research by J. Philippe Rushton and others has found that parents tend to have very similar average IQs to each other because IQ is strongly genetic and people tend to mate with those who are genetically similar to themselves, especially on intelligence. (He discussed this in Ethnic nationalism, evolutionary psychology and Genetic Similarity Theory, in Nations and Nationalism, September 27, 2005]

So, if elite Sub-Saharan Africans emigrate to the UK and they have an IQ of 115, then so will their children. And intelligence researcher James Flynn argues in Are We Getting Smarter? that the intellectual stimulation caused by living in a developed country pushes IQ to its phenotypic maximum. So these children’s IQ, in a Western country, is more likely to be pushed to its phenotypic maximum more than in than Africa. So these children of immigrants’ IQ might well be actually higher than that of their parents.

Dr. Chisala’s second argument is to defend the utility of GCSE Mathematics as a proxy for an IQ test. But as the Alternative Hypothesis YouTuber has pointed out in his video on this very subject—“The UK Gaslight”—GCSE Mathematics differs significantly from a standard IQ test. Most importantly, pupils are divided into “tiers”—easier and harder—in which they sit tests with different levels of difficulty, seemingly to maximize the possibility that the less intelligent children attain the best grade they possibly can, so boosting the place of the school in national League Tables of GCSE results.

Whites, it is pointed out by The Alternative Hypothesis, are more likely than blacks to take “higher tier” GCSE Mathematics. So, in many cases, blacks and whites in the UK are actually taking quite different tests. In other words, GCSE Mathematics is not an absolute proxy for an IQ test.

I would also highlight Dr. Chisala’s accusation that my critique involves “moving the goal posts”. He writes:

This has been the modus operandi of many HBDers [Human Biodiversity is the term for race realism popularized by Steve Sailer although he attributes it to anthropologist Jonathan Marks] in this debate. When a goal is scored against them (or even an own-goal by themselves), they simply shift the goal posts and declare it a non-goal.

First it was “Blacks can’t outperform whites in school anywhere in the world – just find one country where they do and it’s game over.”

When it was shown that black Africans do perform better than whites in the UK, it changed to “well, those are just pass rates, they can’t outperform whites when you look at actual scores.”

When actual scores were found and presented, it changed to, “Well, that’s in eight subjects; blacks can only beat whites in eight subjects because most of those are easy subjects, unlike hard subjects like math.”

Firstly, we shouldn’t see academic discussions in terms of opposing teams. That is a recipe for emotion and clouded thinking.

Consistent with this, secondly, I’m not sure anyone has ever asserted that all whites will always outperform all blacks on IQ tests. That is a straw man argument.

Thirdly, reaching the truth requires a degree of skepticism of what people tell you. So, if Prof Chisala makes an assertion, it is perfectly reasonable for people to present him with counter-arguments and ask him to respond to them…in pursuit of reaching the most parsimonious and empirically accurate model.

This is what this discussion has involved. Prof Chisala has critiqued my arguments and I have refuted those criticisms.

There is no inconsistency between his GSCE findings and the overwhelming evidence for considerable genetic average black-white IQ differences.

Lance Welton [email him] is the pen name of a freelance journalist living in New York.

(Republished from VDare by permission of author or representative)
• Category: Science • Tags: Britain, IQ, Race and Iq 
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  1. This Welton is just a liar, and a bad one at that. As Chisala, who is smarter than Welton, and black as the ace of spades, has been at pains to point out, little Nigerian girls are smarter than Welton. And you, by the way.

    Can’t take the truth, as usual.

  2. For Chrissake, Obi-Wan … science is not a dick-measuring contest.
    (Besides, you come up short again 😛 )

    Contrary to popular belief scientists love it when something does not behave according to the Model. Just think of all the tweaking and filing and hammering and screwing – what a boring world it would be without …

    I will concede that neither side has presented a model that lends itself to fourth-grade maff (“What IQ does an individual male who is 3.1416 % White, 2.7183% black and ad 100 % other possess if raised fruitarian in Bangkok?”).
    – The ability to hear et altera pars is a major part of the appeal of this here site.
    Isn´t this what “peer review” is all about? Those who hate your gut are most dependable in finding weaknesses in your reasoning; and I cannot be the only one who comes here to avoid the Bubble.

    So thanks to Mr. Chisala for presenting his point to the not choir.
    But the Model is not even “bloodied, but unbowed” – with a load of goodwill that´s at best a black eye.

    Pass the popcorn 😀

  3. In summary Chisala was comparing apples and oranges as evidently attention to details AKA reading the fine print isn’t his forte.

    His peers in America are prone to similar problems.

    Black scientists held back by being less scientific

  4. This article to me says that national IQ scores do not form an argument against immigration from non-White countries, but that we should IQ test all immigrants coming in and let them in based on their scores without considering race at all.

    The whole point of this IQ debate is to give sites like VDADE ammunition against non-White immigration, so why then do their writers waste so much time on this subject when it won’t even give them the decisive logical edge in the debate? Both the arguments “we should severely limit non-White immigration” and “we should IQ test all immigrants” are valid policies that can be deduced from the existence of IQ differences between Nation.

    One of the main arguments against IQ testing of immigrants was the “regression towards the mean” argument which said that even if you IQ tested immigrants, their progeny would ultimately regress back to the lower IQ ranges but apparently this is not how it works according to Welton.

    The main argument against moderate to large scale non-White immigration is culture change, this is a purely emotional argument and is what I suspect the majority of immigration restrictionist like those at VDARE are coming from, so my question is why waste time on this IQ nonsense? Is it simply to pad your website with more content? Do you support the influx of Chinese and upper-caste Indian immigrants because they have a higher IQ than 100 and have been shown to score BETTER than Whites in various socioeconomic metrics like income, crime rates and educational attainment?

    (This is for the UK, it seems to be replicated in other Western countries as well by my naked eye observations)

    Anyway, it is rather funny to see “elite” redpilled Whites engaging in pilpul over IQ scores while they are dispossessed in the countries their ancestors built. One would think raw emotion and common sense would be enough but apparently the new God in the West is “science” and everything must be backed by it and human dynamics must be put on the backburner.

    I look forward to Chisala’s response to your article Mr Welton. I still don’t understand what the significance of race and IQ will be and why continuing to debate about it is even productive seeing as we have had this data for decades and it doesn’t look like it will ever be used to alter immigration policy, I suppose it is good for the purposes of allowing Whites to feel smug and superior.

  5. Bliss says:

    Lance Welton wrote:

    African average IQ is 30 points lower than white average IQ.

    Bullshit. A shamelessly brazen lie that is repeated ad nauseam by dishonest HBDers such as yourself.

    1. You stupid liars take the IQ of a tiny handful of white nations with IQ ~100 and claim that is the “white average IQ”. Lol. Who the hell do you think you are fooling? Anyone can look at a list of National IQs and see that the IQ of the overwhelming majority of white caucasian nations ranges from the high 70s to mid 90s. Explain this wide range in white IQ and then tell us why you lied that the average white IQ is 100.

    2. The IQ of african-americans is higher than that of numerous “white caucasian” nations. Explain that away.

    3. The “african average IQ” is 10 points higher than the IQ of Nepal which has no africans, only “caucasoids” and mongoloids”. Explain that away.

    • Replies: @Bonner Tal
  6. Bonner Tal says: • Website

    I’m gonna help you out, because you are so earnestly seeking …

    Context matters. This article is about the UK and average white IQ in the UK is 100 by definition. In the US it is 100 empirically.

    White means “of European ancestry”. It does not include Arabs or Turks etc. The white IQ globally ranges to the high 80ties in the Balkan and when the white IQ is discussed in global context, its average is put into the 90ties.

    African Americans live in a first-world country and had the full benefit of the Flynn effect. Your “white caucasian” countries below 85 are not white.

    The IQ databases aren’t perfect views into genetic realities. Measurement errors exist. Extremely low mean IQs should always be interpreted as “living conditions are extremely bad” and don’t tell us much about the possible ceiling.

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