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After years of behaving like a teenager shadow boxing in the basement of his mother’s house, playing out the fantasy of knocking out Ivan Drago in the 1985 movie Rocky IV, the US and NATO find themselves confronting the reality.

SCOTT RITTER

Being a member of NATO used to be pretty cost-free: fun even. You had a suite in the flashy new HQ, admired your flag with all the others, gloried in your excellent values. The biggest downside was that you were expected to provide a few soldiers to participate in the latest war in some dusty place. But, you could go home after destroying Libya or Iraq or Afghanistan and forget about it. Until the refugees showed up. And Washington really did insist that you buy some of its weapons and it was harder and harder to say no. And you started getting sucked into things that weren’t as much fun as you expected. But, overall, for the leaders anyway, it was an attractive deal. And most of you didn’t like Russia much, having edited your own communists out of the story and forgotten what the Germans did to you.

Russia was feeble and weak, going down, and certainly no match for “the greatest alliance in history“. But what happens when that teddy bear turns nasty? Blowing up countries from 20,000 feet, you had stopped paying attention. Lost wars in Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Iraq turn out to be poor preparation and the bear had been paying attention. But, you cry, NATO was supposed to protect me, not put me into greater danger!

And that is the dilemma that Moscow has been patiently preparing for you. On 17 December Moscow published two draft treaties. Here are the official English versions: Treaty between The United States of America and the Russian Federation on security guarantees and Agreement on measures to ensure the security of The Russian Federation and member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. They should be read but, in essence, after reminding the USA and NATO of all the international treaties that they signed up to and ignored, they are asked to commit themselves again, in writing, in public. They must accept the principle that security is mutual. In addition the USA and Russia will not station nuclear weapons outside their territories – which will require the USA to remove some. Finally – and not negotiable – the USA and NATO must solemnly commit themselves to no more expansion. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov later explained why the drafts had been made public: “because we are aware of the West’s ability to obfuscate any uncomfortable issues for them… We have serious doubts that the main thing in our proposals, namely the unconditional demand not to expand NATO to the east, will not be swept under the carpet.” There is little expectation from Moscow that these demands will be taken seriously by the West. I outline my assessment of the “or else” here and again here. Others have done so elsewhere: Moscow has quite a range of options.

There were two rounds of talks in Geneva and a meeting with NATO. The US written answer was delivered on 26 January and, in Lavrov’s words, did not address “the main issue” of NATO expansion and deployment of strike weapons, although there were openings on “matters of secondary importance”. So here we are and we await the next step. It is, of course, quite certain that Moscow has the next step worked out and the ones after that.

Other events since December have been interesting. The CIA Director visited Kiev 17 January; the UK began supplying Ukraine with light anti-armour weapons (rather elderly as it turned out); the US is sending more and others are providing light AD systems; Canada sent some troops (mostly it seemed to help evacuate Embassy personnel); a senior German naval officer resigned after committing crimespeak; some US troops on heightened preparedness”. The biggest laugh was the evacuate-or-not dance: Canada, USA and UK, the three most enthusiastic cheerleaders for war to the last Ukrainian, are running, the EU is staying.

Other developments worth noting. On 3 January the P5 declared “We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” Iran and Russia showed close cooperation. Russian and Syrian aircraft made a joint patrol of all Syria’s borders; these are to be regular occurrences. Agreements with Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua in a range of areas, including military collaboration. And China’s Foreign Minister advised Washington to take Moscow’s concerns seriously. Only a fool would think these were random coincidences.

There was lots of opinion, of course. Much of it stunningly idiotic. My favourite is An Aging Vladimir Putin Hopes War Can Make a Sagging Empire Rise Again. I must confess that when one sees “aging” and “sagging empire”, Putin and Russia are not the first things that come to mind. But these are memorable as well: How Germany’s greed for gas, and another grubby deal with Moscow, could plunge Europe into an abyss and Is Germany a Reliable American Ally? Nein: Berlin goes its own way, prizing cheap gas, car exports to China, and keeping Putin calm. A cry from mummy’s basement: Why threat to Ukraine from Putin’s Russia is exaggerated – Gwynne Dyer: THE geopolitical question of the moment is: how important is it to humour Russian leader Vladimir Putin? The answer is: not very. From another couch warrior: Russia May Underestimate Ukraine and NATO. And lots of threats: eighteen response scenarios; “sanctions like you’ve not seen before“; personal sanctions. The US State Department complains about “Disarming Disinformation” and burbles that it’s “United with Ukraine“. First he said “only winners” could make demands, then he complained he didn’t have a seat.

But Moscow doesn’t want to “invade Ukraine”; if it did it would have to pay for it. In any event, the way Ukraine’s population is melting away, in another couple of decades, it will be uninhabited.

More rational thinkers exist. Scott Ritter, no couch warrior, knows that America couldn’t defend Ukraine even if it wanted to. The troops Washington has put on alert may be from the storied 82nd Airborne but they’re only light infantry. NATO no longer has the heavy forces and their support in place. But Russia does. There is no credible military threat from NATO. Many understand reality: Biden’s Opportunity for Peace in Eurasia; The Overstretched Superpower: Does America Have More Rivals Than It Can Handle?; Opinion: Ignore the hawks, Mr. President. You’re right on Ukraine. People in RAND realise that the weapons being given Ukraine will be useless. Worse than useless, in fact, if they encourage Kiev to start something. This fictional account describes what a Russia-Ukraine war would really look like – over in a day and all with stand-off weapons, a few special forces and the local forces.

There have been some second thoughts. Washington and its allies have been booming the “Russian invasion” threat as hard as they can but Kiev is trying to to turn down the volume – it doesn’t want to scare its principal backers away. No signs on 2 January, or 25 January. Delicate job this, as we see here: you have to say not now but maybe later. Now even Washington is trying to dial it down – after all, Russia has been “about to invade” for three months now.

But the real second thoughts are forming in Europe. By addressing its demands to Washington, Moscow has shown the Europeans where they fit on the tree. It’s Europe that will – again – pay for Washington’s conceits. Washington is always careful to exempt itself from the anti-Russia sanctions – no shortage of rocket engines or oil or titanium – but Europe can’t. Amusingly, the EU is complaining to the WTO about the counter sanctions Moscow put on food which ended a profitable export market. The two favourite sanctions Washington is pushing for are stopping Nord Stream 2 and kicking Russia out of SWIFT. Neither of these will hurt the USA but they will be devastating for Europe. Killing Nord Stream will be a severe blow to German industry. And, absent SWIFT, how is Europe supposed to pay for Russian gas imports? No wonder Germany’s Scholz wants a “qualified fresh start” with Russia as the Foreign Minister calls for diplomacy. An Open Letter in Germany. France’s Macron thinks the EU should start its own dialogue. Hungary’s Orbán is going there for another reasons but will surely be talking about this. Croatia wants nothing to do with the adventure. Bulgaria wants out. One entertaining climbdown was the British Defence Minister’s invitation to Shoygu to come to London; instead he will go to Moscow. Even Washington and London are starting to learn that the sanctions won’t be off-stage after all. London has been warned ther e could be a big spike in energy co sts and some big American companies have asked t o be excepted. As for sending troops, Washington’s not that “United with Ukraine“. NATO won’t; UK’s Johnson admits no NATO count ry is capable of a large-scale deployment in Ukraine.

We are coming to the end of the story. All those people in the West who thought they could ignore Russia’s interests are starting to suspect that they don’t have the leverage they thought they had. Russia is pretty sanctions-proof. It is the closest thing to an economic autarky on the planet: lots of territory, lots of raw materials, lots of water, lots of energy, all the manufacturing it needs, self-sufficient in food, well-educated people, backed up government, armed to the teeth. It’s pretty impregnable and it’s not run by fools. And it’s very closely allied to the biggest manufacturing power and population in the world. Not an easy target at all and almost impossible to hurt without hurting yourself more.

And all this to preserve the so-called right of a country no one wants in NATO to ask to be admitted. What a principle to die for!

Time for Moscow to tighten the screws. How much will Europe and the other NATOites be prepared to pay for being in a security organisation that does nothing but get its members into disastrous wars and make them insecure?

Putin and his team can allow themselves a small smile: they’ve been planning this for a long time. He warned us in 2007 and here we are today.

• • •

I can think of no better demonstration of Washington’s bankruptcy than Nuland’s appeal yesterday: “We are calling on Beijing to use its influence with Moscow to urge diplomacy…“.

(Republished from Russia Observer by permission of author or representative)
 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: American Military, NATO, Russia, Ukraine 
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  1. Notsofast says:

    ….. calling on beijing to use it’s influence with moscow, to urge diplomacy …. wow, that is a real headscratcher isn’t it? i guess these people really are as clueless as they appear or maybe this is their attempt to tar china with the same brush as russia for their upcoming false flag.

  2. Good to see this posting in my inbox earlier, Patrick. I’ve been anticipating your latest take. That “edited your own communists out of the story” link to your 2009 piece was priceless too.

    The last paragraph in this essay above? For the ages.
    May wobbly knees, over her shoulder furtive glances, and incontinence be Ms Vicky’s minimum reward for all that she hath wrought whenever left unsupervised.

  3. The greatest enemy to the USA resides within the beltway of WDC, not Moscow or Bejing.

  4. Looks like the chickens are coming home to roost. Somebody was too busy counting up the Shekels and such deals. Multi-billionaires transforming into trillionaires does not go unnoticed—at least by such folk in the Western world who remain literate and are not sucked so deep into the system that they can’t give up their comfort zones.

    While the U\$ and its alliance of the killing was taking down Libya, Serbia, Iraq and seriously disrupting Syria with its Islamist fanatics as mercenaries; the men in the Kremlin were busy restoring Russia’s infrastructure and reconstructing its military from a doddering Coldwar holdover into a real, actual lean, mean warfare machine. Giving up space for time, like a chess grandmaster and a traditional set of Russian strategists; President Putin and his various staffs turned a hollowed-out Yeltsinstan into the most powerful military establishment on the planet.

    So now the ancient rabbis who make up the Sanhedrin, the Rottenchild and Rottenfeller Crime Clans; their major minions such as \$oro\$ and Ki\$\$inger; their MI6 and CIA governmental control coordinators; bribed, blackmailed and deeply corrupted Pro\$titicians and administrative bureaucracies throughout the West; happen to be up against the proverbial brick wall.

    False flag attacks? A solid third of the heavily propagandized American people are no longer “on Message” when it comes to that type of ruse. Canadian truckers are posing one of the Five Eyes with one incredible dilemma as they near Ottawa. Britain’s Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has the look of a bewildered clown after getting caught partying down. His chief administrative equivalent across the Pond forgets his lines while messing his Depends, while his laughing hyena purported successor is smiling all the way to glory and a whole new set of lap-dancing partners.

    So the Bank\$ter riddled West is running out of options as the covid Plandemic clock winds down to the zenith of it’s day in the sun, while its rulers search frantically for a new hat and yet another rabbit.

    Should there happen to be any adults left in the room, perhaps its about due time to clear up the mess and come to the realization that their lives have been pretty good so far…

  5. @Notsofast

    … i guess these people really are as clueless as they appear…

    Not “clueless”, but “shameless”.

    Those people know exactly what it is that they’re doing. They just don’t care.

    They’ll say and do anything if they think they can get away with it.

  6. I’d like to send some money to help Afghans in Afghanistan. Unfortunately every charity I can find sends part of the money to the USA, to help Afghan refugees there. I don’t want to do that.

    • Agree: RadicalCenter
    • Replies: @vox4non
  7. Hello, hello, Moscow? We just got a message from Nudelwoman. She, or “israel”, or the US want us to urge you to diplomacy! (Several minutes of ROFL) (tape ends).

    • Thanks: Alternate History
    • LOL: Herald
    • Replies: @Mikhail
  8. NATO only exists to: (1) enrich US defense contractors, (2) create cushy jobs for NATOcrats, (3) give neocohens another outlet for their warrior fantasies to make up for their lack of sex, and (4) give US elites with another arm twisting tool.

    It does nothing for average USians. Should have been ended at least 30 years ago. The Ukraine flap is just another phony pretext for elites to justify its existence.

  9. Ktulu says:

    Our place in history, how we got here, and what to do in the future will never be properly understood until the lies surrounding the second world war are finally crushed, and all sides are guilty of upholding these lies. How would Europeans understand their true relationship with America without the abolishment of the just war myth? How are the American kulaks going to rebuild a relationship with their European mother countries without Russia acknowledging it’s role in creating the current world order through the Soviet Union and Stalin’s planned invasion of Europe?

    Russia will have to play second fiddle to China in a world with only Russia and China in it. Russia needs their western brothers, Europe needs their eastern brothers. Believing in the lies of foreigners is not a good way for a family or a race to get along. The the Holocaust didn’t happen and Hitler did what he did for the good of Germany and the western civilization, real non-jewed western civilization, more broadly, and so did the other Fascists of the 20’s and 30’s including in Italy, Romania, Lithuania, Spain, and even capitalist countries like England with Mosley and America with the populists. Any clinging to the old lies is petty, childish and immature.

    • Agree: inspector general, Nancy
    • Replies: @PJ London
    , @Old Brown Fool
  10. Anon[415] • Disclaimer says:

    It’s a complete surprise to see the Euros finally wake up and realize Washington wants chaos and destruction inside Europe.

    Who knows what was the final catalyst for their awakening ? Plenty of possibilities;
    1) leaving the Euros in the lurch during the Afghan retreat.
    2) backstabbing the French on the Ozzie Sub deal.
    3) 4 years of Trump badmouthing the Euros; Biden comes in and no change
    4) and so many more possible eyeopeners

    Let’s not forget the hopelessly botched color revolution in Alma Alty a month ago. The Euros may have concluded from that mid-adventure that Washington has gone fully cra-cra.

  11. There is no US “and” Nato;
    US = Nato.
    Nato-Chief is The Bidens.

    Membership in the JooS’ ring of vassals is for the majority of EU states violently compulsory;

    The JooS has even written it into the basic law given to the remnants of Germany, same with Italy.

    “Why do 350 mio. Americans need to protect 450 mio. Europeans from 150 mio. Russians (Europeans)?”

    Russia has its house and its front yard in Europe. Why should it shut off and errect another Berlin Wall on its front yard? So that the Joomericans can stay and keep on messing Europe up and sucking it dry?

    Should things not be natural, natal, national, nation all? Naturally there is a big wide Sea between the JooS and chewed up Europe;

    Instead of Russia being shut off, America should stay home; Americans get out of Europe!
    Stop meddling in Europe! Who gives you such rights?

    Regarding Russia (as natural part of Prussia and vice versa):

    Why is that sovereign Russia participating in the Big Pharmafraud?

    [MORE]

    Why does Russia have high inflation?
    Why does Russia have “interest” rates in the first place?
    Why does Russia have very high interest rates?
    Why has Scott Ritter’s RT surrendered its commenting section to a Jew firm in California?
    Why does Russia entertain and violently enforce historic lies?
    Why did allmighty Jewtin the Putin surrender and starv a month’ salary to errect the biggest holofraud temple in the world?

    Russia’s peoples are enslaved just like the rest of us.

    The published fight between “West”/USNato and “Russia” is a fight of the money elites, the mafia of West and East; most American oligarchs are Jews and all Russian oligarchs are Jews. They are fighting at our expense over the cake.

    The Joomerican war forever is entertained at the cost of the peoples to the benefit of 200 or 300 families to which Russia added another 90 families, so that the world is getting to small and the western chapter of the thieves in the law is demanding compensation from “Russia”. (Putin owns 3,5 % of Gazprom).

    All “European” royalty got infiltrated by the Jew and is now basically Jewish; a “great” example is this, the great heir of Noway:

  12. Anonymous[917] • Disclaimer says:

    How much will Europe and the other NATOites be prepared to pay for being in a security organisation that does nothing but get its members into disastrous wars and make them insecure?

    Not all that much longer. US dominance is killing Europe through enforced population replacement, as it is killing the US. Europe needs the resources to its East, the CIS needs European industrial ability. Neither needs the US.

    You might contemplate this very old story: http://read.gov/aesop/143.html

    We’re seeing the very early stages of Eurasia, a political alliance from the Urals to the Atlantic. China is on the verge of a “lost decade” like Japan’s as its capital boom ends and its malinvestments fail to generate the income stream needed to pay for them. China will at least attempt to form an EastAsia. The US, having lost its Asian influence by its failure in Iraq and Afghanistan, will attempt to play Oceania, starting with the AUKUS treaty.

    This change is long overdue. The post WW-II system saw every industrial society on Earth drop to sub-replacement fertilities. These are the same industrial societies that saw a population boom up until WW-II. The current industrial system is driving its participants to extinction. Perhaps humans, like other wild animals, don’t reproduce well in captivity. In any event something has to change, and the change is upon us.

    Chances are that the resulting three element international system will stabilize things enough to eventually be destabilized by a new resources, possibly new resources). China might actually lead in that area, its thorium reactors being an example (https://www.livescience.com/china-creates-new-thorium-reactor.html). Or, it might renounce the Western industry that has so thoroughly contaminated its soil with industrial waste. Time will tell, and nothing else will.

    • Replies: @Miro23
    , @HakkoIchiu
  13. tomo says:
    @Notsofast

    it’s called psychopathic projection
    lying on several levels
    I think Hitler described it in his book – why he started hating Jews

  14. chris says:

    Being a member of NATO used to be pretty cost-free: fun even. You had a suite in the flashy new HQ, admired your flag with all the others, gloried in your excellent values. The biggest downside was that you were expected to provide a few soldiers to participate in the latest war in some dusty place. But, you could go home after destroying Libya or Iraq or Afghanistan and forget about it.

    Let’s not short-change them on their overwhelming success in Serbia!

  15. – In slightly more actual reality the Itzig makes damn sure not even
    the defunct denizens of Tierra del Fuego “forget what the Germans did to them”,
    further that anyone reluctant to bomb Russia (or whatever target du jour)
    is anti-semitic ™ .
    It is way over time to hit the swine where it hurts … Mummy must die
    so Europe can get out of the basement.

  16. Levtraro says:

    And, absent SWIFT, how is Europe supposed to pay for Russian gas imports?

    Excellent overview, and just one minor comment reg. the above: If Russian banks are kicked out of SWIFT European companies can still buy and pay for gas and oil imports through the usual means of currency transfers but since the SWIFT messaging system will go dark then (1) deliveries will have to wait until payments are received and accounted for in the Russian banks or (2) a mechanism is put in place for an alternative messaging system, even possibly SWIFT through Chinese intermediaries. That is the reason the US wants to also sanction Russian banks directly, to shut then off from receiving foreign currency from as many countries as possible.

    I can think of no better demonstration of Washington’s bankruptcy than Nuland’s appeal yesterday: “We are calling on Beijing to use its influence with Moscow to urge diplomacy…“.

    And the response can be seen today in Globaltimes.cn: they called it “absurd and ridiculous.” By reading the editorial you can almost see the Chinese writing and then deleting “are these guys complete morons?”

    • Agree: Iris
  17. When asked by the Noodle woman about diplomacy the Chinese should respond by using her favorite words… “Fuck you, Vicky!”

    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Avery
  18. Anonymous[833] • Disclaimer says:

    Looks like Loco Joe has chosen the hill he’s going to die on, or at least his presidency should.

    Impeach him, Kamala, Nancy and whoever the hell is the pro-tem in the Senate all in one fell swoop after this flustercluck plays out. Just leave the job vacant till the next election, avoiding further damage. Give the whole Congress a two-year vacation as well. Bring in temps from an employment agency. There must be consequences for repeatedly dragging your country into disastrous wars.

    • Agree: David from Alaska
  19. Renoman says:

    A great Piece of Writing! Thank you.

  20. Tom Welsh says:

    “Russian and Syrian aircraft made a joint patrol of all Syria’s borders…”

    Actually not. They flew along the line of the Euphrates and then returned westward along the northern border. That left out the very large north-eastern triangle delimited by Iraq, Turkey and the Euphrates.

    Significant because, years ago, the US government declared that zone its property and threatened to attack any aircraft overflying it without Washington’s permission.

    The patrol also skirted the Golan Heights, whereas to follow Syria’s borders they would have had to fly along the line between the Golan Heights and Israel. That might have been considered provocative by the Israelis, although the territory and air space belong to Syria.

    Nevertheless, it was a good start.

    • Thanks: Arthur MacBride, Iris
  21. Anon[254] • Disclaimer says:
    @Notsofast

    There is no simple way to describe them . Are they shoal of Nimo ? Do they forget what just they told and what just they thought of other ?
    Are they actors out of Harry Potter movies ? Are they clones of Karl Rove? Are the uncounted illegitimate offsprings of the mother of Karl Rove ? Do they create their own reality and imagine everyone else living in that reality ?

    There is one explanation that can tie these intellectual dwarfs to the sources of the pathology – prenatal exposure to pesticide of propaganda and post natal upbringing in shared delusional disorders.
    The violent dominant psychopath instructs them what to believe and they start believing those lies . Iraq war ‘s picture was drawn by Israeli thugs and shoved up the back end of Cheney by American branch . Rest followed suit .
    Saying no what would have been an experience of self dissolving or self immolation.
    Current crisis in Ukraine is shaped by the fear control and confusion inscribed deep into the undercurrents of the same dark forces . Those forces eventually turn the rest into robot amd zombie . Therese transformed ogre also know as painful as it is morally and intellectually to them , this would ensure at least what matters most – self preservation and offer them opportunities to shine on TV as pundits .

    • Replies: @emerging majority
  22. PJ London says:
    @Ktulu

    “We will force this war upon Hitler, if he wants it or not.” —
    Winston Churchill (1936 broadcast)

    “Germany becomes too powerful. We have to crush it.” —
    Winston Churchill (November 1936 speaking to US – General Robert E. Wood)

    “This war is an English war and its goal is the destruction of Germany.” —
    Winston Churchill (- Autumn 1939 broadcast)

    Indeed, during most of the 1930s Hitler received widespread international praise for the great success of his domestic economic and social achievements, making the cover of Time Magazine on numerous occasions and even being named its Man of the Year for 1938.

    “Germany must be handed over to Jewry and the Germans shall be scattered amongst the peoples of the world.”
    Lionel de Rothschild, scion of the Rothschild clan, demand on October 22, 1939 to John Colville, Winson Churchill’s secretary.

    “The war wasn’t only about abolishing fascism, but to conquer sales markets. We could have, if we had intended so, prevented this war from breaking out without doing one shot, but we didn’t want to.” —
    Winston Churchill to Truman (Fultun, USA March 1946)

    “Germany’s unforgivable crime before WW2 was its attempt to loosen its economy out of the world trade system and to build up an independent exchange system from which the world-finance couldn’t profit anymore. …We butchered the wrong pig.” —
    Winston Churchill (The Second World War – Bern, 1960)

    “Atrocity propaganda is how we won the war. And we’re only really beginning with it now! We will continue this atrocity propaganda, we will escalate it until nobody will accept even a good word from the Germans, until all the sympathy they may still have abroad will have been destroyed and they themselves will be so confused that they will no longer know what they are doing. Once that has been achieved, once they begin to run down their own country and their own people, not reluctantly but with eagerness to please the victors, only then will our victory be complete. It will never be final. Re-education needs careful tending, like an English lawn. Even one moment of negligence, and the weeds crop up again – those indestructible weeds of historical truth.” – Sefton Delmer, 1904-1979, former British Chief of Black propaganda, said after the German surrender, in 1945, in a conversation with the German professor of international law, Dr. Friedrich Grimm

    “What will the social order of the future be like? Comrade, I will tell you. There will be a class of overlords, after them the rank and file of the party members in hierarchical order, and then the great mass of anonymous followers, servants and workers in perpetuity, and beneath them again all the conquered foreign races, the modern slaves. And over and above all these will reign a new and exalted nobility of whom I cannot speak. But of all these plans the militant members will know nothing. The new man is living amongst us now! He is here. Isn’t that enough for you? I will tell you a secret. I have seen the new man. He is intrepid and cruel. I was afraid of him”
    Adolf Hitler

    “We made a monster, a devil out of Hitler. Therefore we couldn’t disavow it after the war. After all, we mobilized the masses against the devil himself. So we were forced to play our part in this diabolic scenario after the war. In no way we could have pointed out to our people that the war only was an economic preventive measure.”
    – US foreign minister James Baker (1992)

    “THERE WILL COME A DAY WHEN ALL THE LIES WILL COLLAPSE UNDER THEIR OWN WEIGHT, AND THE TRUTH WILL TRIUMPH AGAIN”
    JOSEPH GOEBBELS

    • Agree: Fox
    • Thanks: HdC, _dude, Nancy
    • LOL: Thim, Realist
  23. Miro23 says:
    @Anonymous

    This change is long overdue. The post WW-II system saw every industrial society on Earth drop to sub-replacement fertilities. These are the same industrial societies that saw a population boom up until WW-II. The current industrial system is driving its participants to extinction. Perhaps humans, like other wild animals, don’t reproduce well in captivity. In any event something has to change, and the change is upon us.

    The trend is clear. It’s increasing restrictions on everything from money, to housing to driving, to speech – basically personal autonomy/decision making is being removed in all directions. Governments use “common good” / “health and safety” / “justice” arguments to extend their power.

    Also, their reference point for human happiness in their finacialized world is consumerism, to be a “consumer” and spend money. The richest guys are the best and the happiest.

    This ignores the fact, that humans over the last 150.000 years have adapted to life in close knit social groups with strong inter reliance and traditions. Living close with nature with quite high but necessary risks. Also daily physically active with healthy foods.

    In fact, humans living in (or recreating) the features of the environment they’re adapted for don’t have any problems reproducing. As you say, the problem is their present inhuman captivity separating them from their real needs.

  24. Tom Welsh says:

    “London has been warned there could be a big spike in energy costs …”

    Well, as a British citizen I am painfully aware that household energy prices have already risen very sharply, and there are forecasts that they may double this year.

    The other day The Times of London had a big front page headline warning that Russia could “weaponise” gas supplies to Europe.

    That looked quite scary, but when you read the first couple of paragraphs (which I did while holding my nose) the argument turned out to be a little more complicated:

    1. IF Russia invades Ukraine (which it won’t),
    2. The West MIGHT impose swingeing sanctions on Russia (which it couldn’t),
    3. And then Russia MIGHT threaten to cut off gas supplies or raise their price (which neither Russia nor the USSR has ever done since 1945).

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  25. tyrone says:

    and it’s not run by fools.

    ….gee wiz, that must be nice.

  26. Tom Welsh says:

    ‘Nuland’s appeal yesterday: “We are calling on Beijing to use its influence with Moscow to urge diplomacy…“’.

    Shouldn’t that read “We are begging…”?

    In any case, both China and Russia are great advocates of diplomacy. It is the West that rampages like a bull in a china shop, believing – quite wrongly – that all it needs to do to get what it wants is to issue bloodcurdling threats and lie a lot.

    • Replies: @HdC
  27. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Notsofast

    Neocon-neolib arrogance to think that China would cooperate after the Bden admin dissed the Beijing Olympics.

    Besides, Russia isn’t North Korea and Ukraine isn’t a democracy.

    • Agree: 36 ulster
  28. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Ultrafart the Brave

    An example of someone playing out of position. Put bluntly, she should be spending more time in the gym. Conversely, someone like myself should be involved within US foreign policy decision making on former Soviet issues.

    • Replies: @Ultrafart the Brave
  29. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Badger Down

    Actually, Israel has a better understanding than US neocons and neolibs like Blinken, Fried, Frum, Goldberg, Nuland and Sherman.

    Israel voted with Russia’s UNGA resolution condemning the glorification of Nazism much unlike the lone two voting against it – US and Ukraine.

    • Replies: @Kurt Knispel
    , @36 ulster
  30. I’m telling ya, there’s a reason why the French call the Brits “Perfidious Albion”. The best thing the countries in Continental Europe can do to regain their sovereignty and their pride is to break entirely with the Anglo-Saxons and boot all American troops out.

    Also, restructure the entire EU project, which is currently more like an American project, away from the Transatlantic relationship. Let it become less political and more free like ASEAN is.

    • Agree: Miro23, HdC, Robert Bruce
  31. Miro23 says:
    @Ultrafart the Brave

    Not “clueless”, but “shameless”.

    Those people know exactly what it is that they’re doing. They just don’t care.

    They’ll say and do anything if they think they can get away with it.

    EU leaders need to listen to Victoria Nuland with her Fuck You attitude towards them. Also think about how they are sold out on arms deals (France), dragged into Neocon wars (Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Serbia), have their vital energy security destroyed (Germany Nordstream) and their media run by corrupt ZioGlob propagandists.

    Really time to pull the plug on the double dealing, corrupt US mafia regime influence in Europe.

    • Replies: @Z-man
  32. I’m against war but on the other hand I’d love to see that Israeli air bridge come alive and fly all the Jews, from Zelenski and Poroshenko down to some Jewish street whore, out of the Ukraine to Tel Aviv. I know it would be worse for the Palestinians but I care more about the Ukrainians. And the Nazis can head West after their Azov battalion gets obliterated; Canada should be most welcoming. Scum to scum and filth to filth.

  33. Chris Moore says: • Website

    It’s Europe that will – again – pay for Washington’s conceits. Washington is always careful to exempt itself from the anti-Russia sanctions – no shortage of rocket engines or oil or titanium – but Europe can’t.

    The ((Jewish)) tightwads will make the world pay for their mistakes until they can’t anymore. Then they’ll make the American people pay. (In fact, they already are. It’s called “inflation.”)

    Certain “Americans” thought hosting ((Jews)) had no downside, when the truth is it has no long-term upside. ((Jews)) are empty suits and empty calories. It’s because they have missing souls. The rabbis must hoard them somewhere like loot. “My precious…”

    Where there is no vision, the people perish.

    But the ((Jews)) say, The world is overpopulated anyway.

    And they’re right. It’s overpopulated with stunted, sefish, suckers and whores who get in bed with ((Jews)).

    • Agree: Ralph B. Seymour
  34. Old Prude says:

    I occasionally read these Pro-Russia, anti US peices. They are clumsy propaganda, but I sympathize with the sentiment. I ain’t got no beef with those Russians. Why can the U.S. government quit meddling in other peoples affairs?

    • Agree: Biff K
  35. absent SWIFT, how is Europe supposed to pay for Russian gas imports?

    Could just send them a cheque in euros, couldn’t they? Euros are good sound currency.

    • Agree: HdC
    • Replies: @RadicalCenter
  36. padre says:
    @Anon

    It’s not the ones responsible awoke suddenly, but rather the fact they didn’t give a shit, till it filled their pockets!

  37. @Mikhail

    Fascist Israhell fosters its Nazi-stuff and fosters it especially in the Ukraina to use it big scale for its holofraud and UN terror. It is more than discusting that the Jew crime state on top of Palestine has a seat and is allowed to vote in the UN; Israhell does not care about UN resolutions let alone International Law.

    And you shit are anything but a “Mikhail”; you are an evil Schlomo troll trying to fish one or the other innocent or clueless reader.

    • Agree: Badger Down
    • LOL: Mikhail
    • Troll: 36 ulster
  38. Thim says:

    No mention in this article of the group, and not a stupid group by any means, and not in mommy’s basement, that is running this operation on both the American and the European sides.

    That is why articles like this are worthless. Studiously detached from reality, a fanatical refusal to look reality in the face, Armstrong has churned out cheap and worthless propaganda, a fix of Hopium, for Q level retards of the pro-Russian sort.

    I certainly wish Russia well. But the group they are facing has defeated Russia before, have seized control of the West, even managed to murder the Christ of God. This opponent is not the joke Armstrong imagines.

    • Replies: @_dude
    , @Mevashir
  39. Z-man says:

    I enjoyed your first paragraph, funny and spot on.
    Crimea is Russian and ain’t ever gonna go back to Ukraine. Most of Donetsk and Luhansk should also be ceded to Mother Russia.

    • Agree: 36 ulster, Biff K
  40. MLK says:
    @john cronk

    Yes, though it’s time for this audience to build on what it’s been right about. It isn’t enough to keep detailing what even a reasonably intelligent middle schooler should know, the US pissed away its “Unipolar Moment.”

    Worse, its ruling and governing classes have gone on a jihad internally. What gave the American Project the wind at its back internationally has been under increasing assault since 2001. I won’t belabor the obvious. California’s descent from a middle class paradise, the envy of the world, is now an oligarchic failed state.

    Okay, so it’s a Sad Story. But no one on planet earth, except the worst of the worst among its elite, is hankering for dominion by CCP China.

    In any event, Russia has accomplished what seemed impossible not that long ago, it has teed up a geopolitical do-over, as if, well, the USG pissed away the last couple of decades. It would have been nice if the personalities responsible for this world-historical f**k up could have at least spent that time coming up with excuses that didn’t add insult to injury.

    Trump almost single-handedly discredited the Republican-branded side of the Uni-party. Though Jeb! helped when he stomped his feet that his brother “kept us safe” on 9/11. Since Trump took the oath in 2017, the Democrats, with the generous assistance of the RINO and Neocon filth, have been on their own journey to getting their minds around the cruel lie that was and remains Obama. To say that he was Bush’s third and fourth terms understates the sheer scope of his destruction to the American nation and its position and reputation in the world.

    The Ukrainian president got to the core of it when he told Biden to “calm down.” I only wish he had directed that wisdom at the entirety of our foreign policy establishment, which is still shouting “Biden needs to show strength.”

    That ain’t in the cards until the Potemkin Village Idiot is removed and Trump is back where he belongs.

    • Replies: @SafeNow
    , @Dave Bowman
  41. Wokechoke says:
    @Tom Welsh

    4 Germany would like to crack on and open up NordGas2 pipeline.

  42. neprof says:
    @MarcusAurelius

    Military guys I’ve know who work in/with NATO claim the acronym stood for “Nothing After Two O’clock”.

    Cushy, do nothing jobs that got you a pension at the age of 45 then onto defense contractor jobs to pad the retirement accounts.

    • Thanks: Sick of Orcs
  43. Reminds me of an old joke.

    Q: What is the difference between our country and a light bulb?

    A: You can unscrew a light bulb.

  44. @Jimmy The Cop

    The greatest enemy to the USA resides within the beltway of WDC, not Moscow or Bejing.

    With “our most important ally” a close second. cough*jonathanpollard*cough.

  45. onebornfree says: • Website

    The Cold War Racket Never Ended for the U.S.:

    “There is something important to recognize about the Cold War: It was not ended by the U.S. government. Instead, it was ended by the Soviet Union. If it had been up to the U.S. national-security establishment, the Cold War would have gone on forever because it is the best racket in U.S. history, one that continually expanded the tax-funded largess, power, and influence of the Pentagon, the CIA, and the NSA…..” From: https://www.fff.org/2022/01/27/the-cold-war-racket-never-ended-for-the-u-s/

    Regards, onebornfree

    • Agree: David from Alaska
  46. Agent76 says:

    Apr 4, 2019 NATO EXIT: Prof. Michel Chossudovsky

    NATO is a criminal entity, an instrument of the Pentagon. There is no “Alliance”. There is military Occupation.

    Nov 29, 2016 The Map That Shows Why Russia Fears War With US

  47. Anonymous[160] • Disclaimer says:

    Eastern half of the Ukraine to Russia and the remaining half to Poland. Case closed!

    • Agree: Biff K
    • Disagree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Mikhail
    , @Biff K
  48. @PJ London

    Thank you for this invaluable contribution to revisionist history. As stated by Ktulu, any quest for emancipation has to start with how we teach history. Of all of Hitler’s detractors, how many have bothered to read Mein Kampf or the books of David Irving.

    You set the record straight about this much ballyhooed psychopath Winston Cuckhill.

    • Replies: @saggy
  49. Last time I looked the barking mad loon heading NATO was a Norwegian.
    Putin should tell the Norwegian King and Prime Minister that the first Russian killed by NATO will cost them Oslo.

    • LOL: Biff K
    • Replies: @emerging majority
  50. Dystopian says:
    @john cronk

    Yes, an otherwise excellent summation of our current situation marred only by the author’s perpetuation of the myth that Biden is in control. Why does anyone give Biden credit for anything? He is a lackluster aging pedophile suffering from late stage dementia, incapable of forming any cogent thoughts. Much like Obama, who could at least read a teleprompter, all of what Joe says is dictated by his handlers. Also like Obama, his occasional departure from his assigned script, is always a disaster but hidden from most Americans by legacy media.

    • Replies: @Nancy
    , @DNA999
  51. HdC says:
    @Tom Welsh

    Change “west” to USA, Britain, and sometimes France, and you’d be right. Mind you, the undue influence of that “shitty little country” on the foregoing counties complicates things tremendously.

  52. @traducteur

    The energy importers could also buy rubles and pay in rubles.

  53. SafeNow says:
    @MLK

    The Ukrainian president got to the core of it when he told Biden to “calm down.”

    Yes, exactly! In the great movie, “The Apartment,” this is the role of the Dr. Dreyfuss character, who repeatedly urges Jack Lemmon to calm down. The secondary character won an Oscar nomination, and I think it was not only his brilliant acting – – Oscar voters realized that the writing was perceptive; the importance of secondary characters.

    • Replies: @MLK
  54. Decoy says:
    @Notsofast

    I doubt if 1 in 50 Americans who voted in 2020 would even recognize the name Victoria Nuland. And that shows you the effectiveness of our media in suppressing info they don’t want out. Nuland is among a very few people who created the mess we have between Ukraine and Russia. Everybody should be aware of the 2014 coup, Nulands role in it, and specifically her “F… The EU” comment.

    • Agree: Nancy
  55. Avery says:
    @InnerCynic

    Good one.
    Another version:

    “Yatz is our man”. “EU won’t like it”. “F_____ EU” (Nuland)

    Chinese answer to Nudelman: “F______ Nuland: Vlad is our Man“.

  56. @Notsofast

    And I suspect appeals are made through Area 51 to the nearest motherships to intercede with Putin…

  57. @emerging majority

    Empires collapse when the incompetent rise to the highest levels. And this happens because organisations are built too big to fail, and therefore any fool could run it.

  58. _dude says:
    @Thim

    When you do a puzzle, just because two pieces don’t perfectly interlock does not make either piece useless. I certainly agree there are deeper layers to discuss and expose, but I don’t find a position such as yours productive. By your logic, if you are not marching on DC with an AR15 this instant, you are wasting time and part of the problem. Makes no sense.

  59. @Ktulu

    Like the previous two World Wars, this will be also a civil war among the White countries. Russia and China will emerge victorious. And China towers hugely above its neighbours, it is already a Universal State for the East Asian countries. Russia will have a very, very long way to go before it can challenge China in economy. And other White countries will be still debating about letting failed men into women’s sport, reparations for their former colonies, etc.

    And China will throw its weight around the world. This is going to be the Chinese Century, probably the first one of two or three.

    And here in Unz Review, Race Realism will mean acknowledging the Chinese dominance.

  60. @Ultrafart the Brave

    Exactly. Nuland (and the rest of them) make me want to throw up.

  61. Nancy says:
    @Dystopian

    ” Why does anyone give Biden credit for anything? ” … and what percentage, again, of his top administration is fifth-column, dual citizen, ashketurks?

  62. @emerging majority

    As they say ” The pigeons come home to roost”.

    So now the ancient rabbis who make up the Sanhedrin, the Rottenchild and Rottenfeller Crime Clans; their major minions such as \$oro\$ and Ki\$\$inger; their MI6 and CIA governmental control coordinators; bribed, blackmailed and deeply corrupted Pro\$titicians and administrative bureaucracies throughout the West; happen to be up against the proverbial brick wall.

    Happy days are here again
    Israel’s biggest weakness is it’s size.

  63. MLK says:
    @SafeNow

    I hope I’m not the only one to have noticed that the Fake News isn’t even attempting to traffic in Fake Polls selling a war with Russia. No, they’re sticking to selling Tucker Carlson as the greatest threat to all that is good and right in the world.

    Nothing could be more devastating than for the President of Ukraine to tell Biden to “calm down.” In other words, stop goading Russia into invading:

    https://asiatimes.com/2022/01/the-west-not-russia-faces-a-ukrainian-quagmire/

    Can anyone say “Escalation Dominance?” Or, ‘If that’s the way you want it, that’s the way you’re going to get it.”

    Let’s take what the “Biden” administration, and its RINO and Neocon filth allies, claim is the worst case scenario. Set aside that it’s glaringly obvious that they’re doing everything to bring it about. And that the whole lot of them are criminally responsible for driving Russia into a Strategic Alliance with China. They claim the world is ending if Russia were to invade Ukraine, spend all of a week removing the Kiev regime, returning Ukraine to status quo ante 2014. Much worse for wear, of course.

    • Agree: SafeNow
  64. Time for Moscow to tighten the screws.

    There are increased signs of collapse, internal as well as foreign “policy” (haha), in the judeo-masonic bloc FUKUS/dependencies. Of course these only affect ordinary citizens so tptb will only act to ameliorate them if discontent reaches threatening level. Possible this was the motive behind Buffoon Boris lifting all cv-19 regulations in England.
    But toyboy Macron doubles down in France in a “fuck-you” to French citizens.
    Maybe tptb seeing which approach works best.
    Like they abandoned “communism” as it began to not work for them.

    Significant if Volodya doesn’t tighten the screws after the collapse of the “pandemic” and the Ukr adventure dissolves in ignominy. When Victor Noodleseller and western “governments” are yet again exposed to global humiliation.
    Not to “tighten the screws” (however that may be defined) on the judeo-masonic Ratpack means it can strategically withdraw, regroup ready for another onslaught on humanity.
    Not to do so, therefore, might cause people to think that the entire Ukr thing (+ cv-19 etc) is just theatre, and that Volodya is just another player …

  65. Excellent post as always.
    Watching, reading, and thinking, I can’t help but being reminded of the final scene of Godfather I.
    Putin, the patriot, the judo master and Strategist extraordinaire.
    The only difference is that even though Michel Corleone served in Armed forces of his country, he had no choice but to come back to his family business, values of which are counter to the common values of his country in general.
    For Putin the focus always has been serving his mother country before and after falling of the USSR, sacrificing his marriage in the process.

    • Replies: @Mevashir
  66. @Levtraro

    And, absent SWIFT, how is Europe supposed to pay for Russian gas imports?

    Alexander Mercouris in these videos explains:
    https://theduran.com/white-house-briefing-exposes-anti-russian-sanctions-as-ineffective/
    https://theduran.com/blinken-rushes-to-meet-lavrov-as-ukraine-tensions-spike-and-swift-sanction-threat-unravels/
    The US cannot selectively sanction some Russian BIG banks, Russia will respond and say no Russian banks can do US Dollar transaction.
    Russia CANNOT be cut off from SWIFT – Germany and Europe would have to use Russia’s own Financial messaging system – this would weaken SWIFT and all payments would be in Euro’s – which would weaken the US Dollar’s reserve currency status.
    And then there are Titanium and Aluminum – last time US tried to sanction RUSAL – world wide aluminum prices spiked.
    And then Natural Gas – US is scouring the globe for supplies. There is not enough supplies nor transportation capacity ( LNG Ships ). And why should Qatar and others not enjoy the high prices ? ( counter point – their customers will collapse economically )

    In sum: shoot first then aim. Another US “slam dunk” – or as the Russians say – “stepping on the same rake”.

    • Replies: @Levtraro
  67. Mevashir says:

    No mention of the Israeli effort to destabilize this situation behind the scenes. To punish Russia for its alliance with Syria and Iran. To create a diversion by using its American Judeocon useless idiots as a wrecking crew.

  68. Z-man says:
    @Miro23

    All it takes is for one of those countries, it could be Lichtenstein or Luxembourg, the smallest one, whatever, to just say NO and the Ukraine thing is finished. But will anyone of these cowardly countries say no to Ukrainian membership? If I had to bet on it the French and Germans would hold their hands together for courage against the Anglo Judaic Beast and vote no, but we shall see.

  69. saggy says: • Website
    @Joe Levantine

    I just checked some of the Churchill quotes and they are phony. I don’t think any of the quotes in the list should be accepted without checking their authenticity. Posting fake quotes is just pure idiocy.

    • Replies: @emerging majority
    , @Nancy
  70. @Mikhail

    Put bluntly, she should be spending more time in the gym.

    … you can put lipstick on a pig – but I don’t think sending the pig to the gym will help.

    Conversely, someone like myself should be involved within US foreign policy decision making on former Soviet issues.

    Anyone outside of their current closed club would be an improvement.

  71. Mevashir says:

    That America’s dying is painfully clear,
    The Christians will pay the funeral
    And all that is dear,
    While the Jews collect the insurance
    And stick it up our collective rear.

  72. Mevashir says:
    @DisinfectantSunlight

    For Putin the focus always has been serving his mother country before and after falling of the USSR, sacrificing his marriage in the process.

    Didn’t heroic Vlad find himself a new marriage bed?

    Doesn’t Vladimir mean World Conqueror in Russian?

  73. Athena says:

    The biggest laugh was the evacuate-or-not dance: Canada, USA and UK, the three most enthusiastic cheerleaders for war to the last Ukrainian, are running, the EU is staying.

    NATOCanada at it again:

    \$1.5 billion a year (taxpayer money) for the state-owned CBC (cousin of the BBC) in service to the Pentagon (all posts contradicting their ”view” are deleted from FB):

    • Replies: @36 ulster
  74. Mevashir says:
    @Thim

    Hopium is priceless!

    Some Russian Orthodox adherents believe that Putin could be the hoped for end times righteous leader (Orthodox Christian Tsar) who will return the entire world to spiritual sanity. I would not count him out too soon.

    • Replies: @haha
  75. Athena says:

    The canadian ”democracy” according to the Trudeau (father, now died) and son (both Kissinger’s protégés):

    Trudeau’s War Measures Act: A Reminiscence

    [MORE]

    https://original.antiwar.com/henderson/2010/10/17/trudeaus-war-measures-act-a-reminiscence/
    (exerpts, emphasis added)

    ”On Friday, Oct. 16, 1970, I woke up at about 7:00 a.m. and turned on the radio. At the time, I was living in Winnipeg, Manitoba. The news I heard shocked me. In the middle of the night, Canada’s Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau had invoked the War Measures Act. What was that? I had never heard of it. The radio announcer explained that by invoking this law, Trudeau had given himself the power to arrest anyone he wished and to hold any people he wished in jail indefinitely without charging them with a crime.”

    ”My thoughts on Trudeau’s invocation of the War Measures Act are relevant today because of what I learned from this: that my instinctive distrust of government officials who claim vast discretionary powers over their citizens is likely to be justified.”

    ”I learned in the newspaper the next day that the law also gave Trudeau the powers of:

    (a) censorship, and the control and suppression of publications, writings, maps, plans, photographs, communications, and means of communication;
    (b) arrest, detention exclusion, and deportation;
    (c) control of the harbors, ports, and territorial waters of Canada and the movements of vessels;
    (d) transportation by land, air, or water and the control of the transport of persons and things;
    (e) trading, exportation, importation, production, and manufacture;
    (f) appropriation, control, forfeiture, and disposition of property and of the use thereof.’

    ”In essence, then, the act gave Trudeau totalitarian power. The good news is that he didn’t use most of these powers. The bad news is that he used the power in (b) extensively. But I’m getting ahead of the story.”

    Interestingly, according to Bouthillier, one of the first people to congratulate Trudeau on his assertion of executive power was that noted civil libertarian Henry Kissinger.”

    (…)

    Trudeau used the law to hold 497 people in prison incommunicado, some of them for months. The police did track down the kidnappers, but only after the kidnappers had murdered Laporte, and negotiated James Cross’s release in return for safe passage to Cuba. According to Canadian author Walter Stewart, in his book, Shrug: Trudeau in Power, the police found the kidnappers using conventional police methods, not, apparently, using anything obtained from the poets, writers, artists, grass-roots activists, politicians, and others whom Trudeau had detained.”

    • Replies: @mulga mumblebrain
  76. anonymous[402] • Disclaimer says:
    @john cronk

    “Calling on Beijing to …” appease Russia? WHO is running the State Dept??? CHINA? Israel? ADL/Neocons???? It seems that our State Dept. diplomats/CFR luminaries are no such thing? actually they have no Plan A and there is no plan B? Global Geopolitical Strategic Plan 50+yrs? duh… WHAT’s that?? duh..Neocons led America into a dead alley..now what??? internal/external FREE FALL??

  77. 36 ulster says:
    @Mikhail

    How true. Netanyahu and Bennett probably don’t much like Putin, but they’re adults who know that things can go horribly wrong in a flashpoint like Syria. (Israel, predictably, backs the wrong side(s)). They don’t have the luxury to indulge their paranoid genes like the (((neocos-leftist Beltway alliance))). Putin has the “effrontery” to facilitate the spiritual instinct in most Russians, and he actually gets along amicably with most religious leaders, not just thepredominant Orthodox, Old Slavonic clergy. Nope, Putin is no Alexander or Nicholas; more like Stolypin-lite.

  78. @Anonymous

    > China will at least attempt to form an EastAsia.

    And they will fail. China’s only true ally in the region is North Korea which it treats like a vassal. The South Koreans might play along but Japan will never willingly submit to an alliance with the Chinese. They’re like oil and water – the Chinese and Japanese despise each other on an almost homicidal level. Frothing-at-the-mouth type of hatred. Despite the genetic similarity they couldn’t be any more culturally distant. Geopolitical realities also dictate that the island nation Japan will always seek autonomy, to go its own way.

    At this point the Chinese have much better relations with Russia, Iran, even the Southeast Asians than they could ever hope to form with Japan.

  79. @Old Brown Fool

    China really does look like a Roman Empire for Asians doesn’t it?

  80. Mevashir says:
    @emerging majority

    I say LOL not in mockery but in hearty respect!

    President Putin and his various staffs turned a hollowed-out Yeltsinstan into the most powerful military establishment on the planet.

    Is this really true or are you being hyperbolic?

    • Replies: @Swede55
  81. The Illegitimate babbling buffoon is being used as a white “House Nigga”, only he’s to damned corrupt and incompetent to know it. One look at his cabinet and appointees reveals who’s in charge and it ain’t CornPop.
    I expect a massive wave of protests in the coming days/months, mostly peaceful until they become effective, then the Feds step in with planted goons to rattle things up, and then claim racists, white supremacists/domestic terrorists are trying overthrow local, state and federal government. Maybe they’ll kill another white female patriot or two just for cover.

    Calling Ray Epps, prepare for another event, your handlers are standing by.

    It’s the same playbook repeated over and over ad neausium.

  82. 36 ulster says:
    @Athena

    “What are they doing in the Ukraine, when we need them in Ottawa?” (Ha!)

    • Replies: @Athena
  83. @PJ London

    “we defeated the wrong enemy” general g. patton

    • Thanks: Nancy
  84. There is no credible military threat from NATO.

    That statement is quite true and renders Putin’s ravings nugatory. There never was a threat from NATO, even at the height of the cold war. Defensive alliances are just that, defensive.

    The weapons being sent to Ukraine are also defensive. Putin, frankly, would have to be a blithering idiot to invade Ukraine any further. The cost would simply be too high. What he holds now is nothing but a drain on his economy which has been cut by a third since 2010. All the while, Ukraine’s economy has been improving.

    One observation on comment areas such as this one. There is a lot of ignorance on the situation with Russia. Russia is not the juggernaut it likes to come across as being. It is impoverished, and becoming more so under Putin’s imperialistic ambitions.

    • Agree: Philip Owen
    • LOL: Mikhail
  85. peterAUS says:
    @HakkoIchiu

    This

    …Geopolitical realities also dictate that the island nation Japan will always seek autonomy, to go its own way….

    caught my eye.

    Out of topic, have been recently reading some books about Japan from Meiji restoration to The Bombs.

    In one of them an author posits that the fundamental mistake Japan made was choosing continental instead of maritime option. Chosen was Prussia/Germany option instead of Great Britain.
    Had Japan chosen the maritime option that path could’ve been MUCH different.

    • Replies: @HakkoIchiu
    , @nokangaroos
  86. Swede55 says:
    @Mevashir

    He is being hyperbolic. The U.S. air force and navy are much bigger than the Russian in planes and ships, the armies and strategic nuclear forces about even.

    • Replies: @Harold Smith
  87. Beckow says:
    @Levtraro

    ….without SWIFT…deliveries will have to wait until payments are received

    This not only applies to paying for Russia’s gas and resources, it also applies to getting paid by Russia for exports from EU. It would be slower, more complex, and would make a lot of EU exports not viable. China and others would gain that market.

    Bank sanctions make it harder for Russia’s oligarchs to quickly move money out of Russia. That is something 99% of population and Kremlin want.

    Washington is in a panic trying by any means to limit the conflict to Ukraine. There is no reason Russia should do anything in Ukraine, a slowly failing state that by itself poses no danger. Russia is also behaving as if time was on its side. It is, the deep NATO penetration into eastern Europe cannot be militarily defended. This is Napoleon marching to Moscow and realizing that he is in a trap. A tense stand-off hurts the border countries and makes them less attractive for business activity. A sword of Damocles over the eager Balts, Poles, Romanians. With time that will look like a bad choice.

    But for Washington or London any climb-down would be a PR disaster, so they have to push and hope for the best. At the end, the “f…k EU” attitude may prevail. Or they are hoping that an asteroid intervenes.

  88. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Anonymous

    Eastern half of the Ukraine to Russia and the remaining half to Poland. Case closed!

    It’s not so easy.

    West Ukrainians aren’t generally so pro-Polish – especially when compared to pro-Russian sentiment in the former Russian Empire part of Ukraine.

    Another issue is what constitutes east and west Ukraine. Just ncluding territory east of the Dnieper leaves out for Russian Empire areas including Kiev and Odessa.

    • Replies: @Biff K
  89. @HakkoIchiu

    NO commenting history. You gotta love dem trolls!

    • Replies: @Anon
  90. @HakkoIchiu

    Troll pushes hatred. Interesting. Japan killed thirty million Chinese, including the Nanjing Holocaust and biological warfare. And members of its vile, corrupt, US-controlled, ruling elite STILL refuse to acknowledge it and still hold onto stolen Chinese territory. Once its US Boss collapses, Japan will come a calling.

    • Replies: @HakkoIchiu
  91. @Athena

    Scratch a ‘liberal’ and you’ll find a fascist.

  92. @Beckow

    With a long history of a bunch of barking mad Zionist loons deciding Washington’s Foreign Policy, Putin would be insane not to do whatever is necessary to prevent nuclear weapons being half an hour away from Moscow.

  93. Rahan says:

    And it’s very closely allied to the biggest manufacturing power and population in the world.

    Each of the players is inside a closing demographic window of opportunity.

    The globohomo leaders are mostly between 75 and 95, and the generation after them was selected by bioleninist criteria and as such is utterly incompetent and hilariously corrupt.

    Russia is entering a demographic hole at least a decade long due to the kids that didn’t get born in the 1990s.

    China is also entering a demographic hole with fertility dropping to European levels.

    India, Indonesia, Africa, are still cranking youngsters out, but that’s more or less irrelevant for now. What is relevant is that all three current big players: USA, Russia, and China, have demographic quicksand sucking at their feet.

    A novel situation, which adds another major variable to the choices of the three powers right now and in the very near future.

    And that’s of course not counting the potential turning of the population into wheezing chronic patients if the clot-shot mania turns out to be as bad science as an increasingly large number of people appear to view it.

  94. haha says:
    @Quartermaster

    You always deliver a laugh, for which thanks in these insane times.

    • Agree: Mikhail
    • Replies: @Mikhail
  95. @Swede55

    He is being hyperbolic.

    He probably isn’t.

    The U.S. air force and navy are much bigger than the Russian in planes and ships, the armies and strategic nuclear forces about even.

    He said “most powerful” which doesn’t necessarily mean biggest. And Russia’s advantage in EW, missile and missile defense technology probably far outweighs any numerical advantage the U.S. may have.

    • Agree: annamaria
    • Replies: @annamaria
  96. sally says:
    @Jimmy The Cop

    not sure its the belt way crown that should be awarded the “enemy number one award for denying humanity or the USA governed citizens its(their) rights”. The Belt way crowd are just greedy yes men afraid of themselves and each other.

    I nominate the search engine giants and the purveyors of proprietary software and OS stuff. Monopoly power has allowed the corporate giants to blackmail the public into buying and using their products. If you don’t buy their software and use their hardware you cannot access or use the digital platform that runs on top of the Internet. Their wealth which monopoly powered vendors have, comes from their ownership of patents and copyrights. And copyrights and patents come from hot thin air, as they are inventions of legislation.

    But the monopoly powered blackmailers would be broke over night if the law were changed to deny these monopoly powered global giants the monopolies [patents and copyrights] that rule of law created for them.
    Humanity would once again flourish as it began again to compete with each other to produce products and to provide services that would improve the lot of everyone in the world.

    Without government there would be no lasting monopoly power in private hands. Remember our maker does not have a patent on planets, or the earth, or the biology or the minerals he or she placed on the earth. . Our maker has the power to stand alone<= only as long as no one invents a better planet, earth, and such. Our makers' rule is contingent of the failure of mankind to produce competition so powerful, that God loses out.
    But mankinds Gods [the global corporations and the 257 nation state system], derive their power by using rule of law to block all competition. Blocking competition is what the wars are all about.

    There is a giant difference between the Internet (node to node physically connected analog system) and the persons who own the copyright and patent s that drive the devices that maintain the digital platform. The digital platform has gates and they control all of the gates. These monopoly powers allow the digital platform to be gated. The monopoly powers are expressed in software driven hardware devices (every bit of which is copyright or patented) The giants own the digital platform one device and one line of code at a time. They claim no one owns the Internet, but if you add up the patent and copyright holdings of these people you discover very few peoples, just like wealth, own all the IP. Monopoly powers concentrate wealth.

    It is s legislation that made monopoly power and nearly allow the monopoly power is in the hands of the privately owned, corporations. These corporations are bigger than any nation state, wealthier then nearly all of the nation states. The global corporations own the monopoly powers that drive the devices at every mac address and every Ip address. Monopoly power, in private hands, not politics in public hands, rules the world.

    • Thanks: emerging majority
  97. haha says:
    @Mevashir

    I don’t know about righteous or spiritual leadership, etc. but Mr. Putin does seem to be remarkably sane, bright, and pragmatic in a world now ruled by unhinged, not-too-bright, and dogmatic politicians . The Cookie lady has now asked/requested/begged/threatened the Chinese to use their “good influence” with Russia while the British clown with the perpetually unkempt hair has ordered his military to get ready to march to the Russian front. Perhaps nobody reminded the clown that Big Brother has said he won’t be going marching to the front and the Ukrainian President has said he doesn’t see any imminent Russian invasion. Looks like without raising his voice and firing a single shot Mr. Putin has created cracks in the NATO wall. Now that is what constitutes having real smarts.

    • Replies: @annamaria
  98. Mikhail says: • Website
    @haha

    Svidomite extraordinaire.

  99. @Bill Jones

    Hey! Thats way over the top. With Viking traditions, the Norse remain as a PEOPLE one of the most noble in the Western world. Their government is compromised. Did you happen to know that with barely over 5M people, over a million go cross-country skiing every wintry weekend. In the summer months a good many of them are sailing their own boats. Lots of independent-minded folk.

    Stoltenberg is a mere waiter—accepting orders and always schmoozing for more tips.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
    , @Redlining It
  100. @Anon

    Like your style. The meta-psychoanalysis is quite apt.

  101. Mikhail says: • Website
    @emerging majority

    Stolts circa 1980s –

    • Replies: @Wokechoke
  102. Athena says:
    @36 ulster

    Ottawa reiterates every two weeks that there is a state emergency because of the COVID-19. So why does he (Trudeau) go to Scotland, Ukraine, etc. to save the planet, protect Ukraine, and so on instead of staying here to find solutions and end this crisis?

    The pretext (a state of emergency) is a lie to give him and Legault absolute power. But even if there were really a state of emergency, the Canadian (and provincial, i.e. Quebec’s) constitutions contain clauses dating back to Nuremberg under which citizens have the RIGHT to say NO to the experiments currently being performed by pharmas on their bodies.

    • Agree: Anon62
  103. Wokechoke says:
    @Quartermaster

    It’s got all the raw materials it needs and the Nord Stream pipe once operational will cut out the Poles and “Ukrainians” from the energy sector. The whole crisis is really about Industrial Germany. Not these Polish and Ukie bumpkins.

  104. Wokechoke says:
    @Mikhail

    So he was a rentboy…

    • Replies: @annamaria
  105. Ned Kelly says:

    Two things are giving me some hope: Europe is too dependent on Russian resources. China telling the US. to stop making trouble and threatening over Tiawan. Hopefully reality will start to sink in.

    Despite pleas from the U.S. and Eastern European governments over the years, Europe remains dependent on Russian gas. Moscow is Europe’s main supplier, providing about 40 percent of the continent’s gas. It also provides more than half of Europe’s coal, and it is a leading supplier of crude oil.
    Germany is even more dependent, relying on Russia for more than 50 percent of its gas, and Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom owns many of Germany’s underground storage sites.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-ukraine-crisis-severe-sanctions-could-trigger-crippling-moscow-response/ar-AATepRa

    There is no way in hell they could substitude that: It would be instant dark age.

  106. The Empire’s toolkit is depleted. Even war is not an option anymore.

  107. Wj says:
    @Quartermaster

    From what I have seen Ukraine’s major export is mail order brides. The whole thing is neocon lies. The same people tbat sold wmd in Iraq to a bunch of American idiots

    • Replies: @Levtraro
  108. Anonymous[917] • Disclaimer says:

    To: Athena

    Emergency? Where are the field hospitals in Canada? Have they trained people to perform emergency protocols other than the vaccination? Not yet as far as I can tell. The Canadian universal health system can’t handle patients in regular times. Would you believe no one answers the phone when I call my local clinic in normal times? I am lucky when someone answers after waiting 15 min on the line. How can that system get properly organized during a pandemic if it is not responsive in normal times?

    So they blame it on the unvaccinated. Pfizer CEO himself is no longer such a vaccine champion and they are working on other protocols. I chose to take the vaccine but I respect the choise of the ones who don’t want it as long as they wear a mask and follow the common rules otherwise. I would like the administrations to do likewise and that includes Trudeau.

    • Agree: Anon62
  109. @saggy

    You want the for sure, real quotes have a read of “Human Smoke” by Nicholson Baker. Used copies are currently available at reasonable rates. He assembled a mass of newspaper articles, diaries and journals, all quite short and succinct—great bed-time reading. On a personal basis, I was once a big Churchill fan—in my teens and into the twenties. Over time I’d become more cynical. After reading his direct quotes and various interlocutors quoting him; I’m totally convinced he was a highly narcissistic psychopath and a supreme sociopath.

    • Agree: Joe Levantine
    • Replies: @erzberger
  110. annamaria says:
    @Wokechoke

    Once a rent boy is always a rent boy.

  111. annamaria says:
    @haha

    “the British clown with the perpetually unkempt hair” is an asset for the City of London and war profiteers like Blair and Arbuthnot.

  112. Nancy says:
    @saggy

    After all your detective work, wouldn’t you like to point out exactly which are ‘phony’… so we can thank you for your efforts?

  113. @peterAUS

    Yes Imperial Japanese expansionist policy was quite schizophrenic. They did end up going for the maritime option (Nanshin-ron) in Southeast Asia which was preferred by the Navy but not before making a ton of blunders and getting stuck in an unwinnable continental conflict against the Chinese, courtesy of the Army.

    • Replies: @peterAUS
  114. @mulga mumblebrain

    YOU sound like a troll and a Chinese chauvinist. I am simply pointing out the facts on the ground. There is much bad blood between the Japanese and Chinese that even a collapse of the US and the prevailing world order will not mend. I have been to both places, they are incredibly different culturally as well, polar opposite mindsets. At no point do I display bias favoring one or the other.

    • Troll: mulga mumblebrain
  115. Anonymous[180] • Disclaimer says:
    @HakkoIchiu

    And they will fail. China’s only true ally in the region is North Korea which it treats like a vassal. The South Koreans might play along but Japan will never willingly submit to an alliance with the Chinese.

    Korea has allied itself with China in the remote past, around AD 1600 (https://www.worldhistory.org/article/1398/the-japanese-invasion-of-korea-1592-8-ce/), but only when actually invaded by Japan. Japan was, apparently, trying to invade China by way of Korea, but got bogged down in Korea thanks to the excellent Korean Navy, severe resistance by the Korean general population, and several Chinese armies active in the Korean theater.

    This reinforces you point that only under the most severe danger would the Koreans ally with China.

    In theory, S. Korea could serve the same function that Portugal did during the Peninsular Campaign back in the early 1800s: a Continental country that was largely inaccessible over land, at least in comparison to its accessibility by water, and was therefore a suitable ally for the United Kingdom. One could say that S. Korea has been serving a similar function for the US since the end of the Korean War. In the long run, though, Korea could become an economic dependency on China if China obtained military dominance over Korea’s coastal waters. That’s in the very long run, since China is apparently in trouble now from malinvestment, made largely over the past decade when China tried to continue its previous capital boom by found itself with few remunerative projects.

    The “economic dependency” would occur should China prove able to extend its anti-ship missile coverage and Coast Guard to Korean wasters, coupled with and AUKUS strategy based on denying Chinese blue water trade.

    Japan is a natural member of AUKUS, as it is clearly an Oceanic power that is just too small to become a dominant Oceanic power, as was demonstrated in WW II. It will be interesting to see how that develops, as Japan has never in its previous history been in alliance with near peer nations.

  116. @peterAUS

    Nah.
    The Navy emerged victorious from the civil war, Khalkin Gol only put the
    final nail in the Army´s coffin; which in turn meant they had to secure at the absolute minimum the oil of Borneo which again in turn would mean war with the US – which again in turn was hopeless from the beginning without a crippling blow to the Pacific Fleet to win enough time to blitzkrieg Southeast Asia and build a ring of island fortresses around the supply lines.
    It always was a desperate gamble but going maritime from the beginning (think of the aftermath of the Russo-Japanese War, Little Britain and the (((banks))) going full Frankenstein on their creation) would have put them on the wrong side of the Usual Suspects much sooner; the alternative was accepting strangulation.

  117. Levtraro says:
    @Dimple Simple Anonymous

    Good points, I agree. But please quote correctly. Your quote on top is not mine, it is Armstrong’s. I was responding to Armstrong question much in the same way as you are doing here.

  118. Anonymous[180] • Disclaimer says:
    @Old Brown Fool

    Russia will have a very, very long way to go before it can challenge China in economy. And other White countries will be still debating about letting failed men into women’s sport, reparations for their former colonies, etc.

    Russia cannot challenge China in economy. It could just about challenge Italy.

    However, Russia allied with Germany (precedent: Imperial Germany under Bismark’s diplomacy) could challenge China, at least defensively, given a few decades. China is now in the first stages of serious trouble, given its malinvestements over the past decade or so, so the Russian – Germany alliance might have the time it would need.

    Mackinder deduced that control of Central Europe would eventually lead to world domination (https://www.thoughtco.com/what-is-mackinders-heartland-theory-4068393), and one could look at UK, then US policy since Mackinder as an attempt to deny control of Central Europe to any other nation. One could thus expect the US to oppose a Russian/German alliance, but right now the US is in so much trouble that it apparently cannot control German foreign policy (https://sawahpress.com/en/world/german-governments-ukraine-policy-is-shameful-opposition-mp-says/). If membership of Ukraine in NATO fails, as did the color revolution in Kazakhstan (https://southfront.org/aspirations-and-failures-of-the-planned-color-revolution-in-kazakhstan/), the US diplomatic offensive against Russia will have failed.
    The failure to include Ukraine in NATO, and to make Kazakhstan independent of Russia, will reinforce the departure of the US and UK from Europe. This departure was signaled by the AUKUS treaty, and the failure of the one last serious US offensive against Russia will confirm that signal. It will take time, but the Russian / German alliance is pretty much inevitable barring an asteroid strike or a nuclear central war.

    We end up with a world recovering from damage caused by the post-WW II world system. Europe and Russia have been reduced to a shadow of what they were in 1900, but have also lost their instinct to go for the jugular in foreign relations. The US is no longer the agrarian democracy with a large industrial sector that it was in 1900. China is no longer the Asian Giant Tiger that it was in 2000, and faces both industrial waste contamination and very large failed investments. Even militarily, China’s investments have done poorly. Its South Sea islands are washing away, and if China invades Taiwan with the inadequate amphibious capability it has, Chain will cause a chip shortage that will shut down much of its industry and a global economic failure (including China) that will make the present circumstances seem like unbounded riches.

    Global integration of manufacturing has decisively failed, both financially and physically, and a form of autarky is now the ideal. I suspect that the world will end up in an interregnum, metaphorically licking its wounds and being poor.

    One could point to the Great Depression of the 1930s as causing WW II, and maybe things will work out that way again. Seems unlikely, the confidence in government needed for WW II doesn’t exist outside of China, and warfare would cut China off from much of its raw materials.

    • LOL: showmethereal
  119. Levtraro says:
    @Wj

    Ukraine exports: prostitutes. See “The Natasha Trade …” by D. M. Hughes:

    The Ukrainian Ministry of the Interior estimated last year that 100,000 Ukrainian women were trafficked during the previous decade. The International Organization for Migration estimated the number to be four to five times higher. Popular destination countries include Canada, the Czech Republic, Germany, Greece, Hungary, the Netherlands, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, the United States, and Yugoslavia. Large numbers of Ukrainian women are trafficked into Korea to be used as prostitutes near military bases.

    https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/jr000246c.pdf

    David. P. Goldman:

    Ukraine is disappearing, for two reasons. It has one of the world’s lowest birth rates at just 1.23 children per female, and one of the world’s highest rates of out-migration. No other country has willed itself out of existence so decisively.

    https://asiatimes.com/2022/01/ukraine-is-the-hollow-man-of-europe/

    The Ukraine needs to free herself from US consultants, Jewish oligarchs, and neonazis, to become a DECENT country, to return to economic and demographic growth or stability, to rebuild her industries and re-gain her closest and most natural markets.

    • Replies: @Poupon Marx
  120. Levtraro says:
    @Quartermaster

    Do you have any original opinion? One that you elaborated yourself?

  121. Biff K says:
    @Mikhail

    West Ukrainians ARE Polish. They speak Polish better than Poles. I’ve lived around both for 70 years.

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  122. Levtraro says:
    @Beckow

    There is no reason Russia should do anything in Ukraine, a slowly failing state that by itself poses no danger.

    The danger is in US stationing bases and missiles in the Ukraine. Russia has very significant reasons to correct her mistake in letting the maidan go as far as it went, so it has major reasons to do something in the Ukraine.

    The fact the Ukraine is being consumed to exhaustion by corruption, Jewish oligarchs, low birth rates, neonazi orcs, emigration, national debt, depopulation and poverty, is not the relevant aspect of the problem. The relevant aspect of the problem is its location. Russia has to do something.

    • Replies: @Beckow
  123. @Anonymous

    In God´s Ear, 180.
    But I suspect the dying Empire will prefer burning the house down to
    letting go of Europe and the WestPac.

    • Replies: @anon
  124. Surely this was all just theatre?

    The “Davos Crowd” was pushing for military confrontation between the Jew.S.A. and Russia.

    Treacherous dual-loyalty elements within the so-called “Biden Administration” also pushing. (oh goy!)

    I agree with Nuland’s sentiments re: the EU, but she’s a nasty bitch alright, who is (in my opinion) doing the bidding of that same Davos Crowd. Nuland’s paternal ancestry is only something on her CV: Ukraine means nothing to her.

    No war! Raise interest rates. Separate the Jew.S.A. from Europa.

  125. anon[314] • Disclaimer says:
    @nokangaroos

    even though technically Japan is a U.S. vassal and China is a rival of the U.S., i gotta say culturally, Japan is much more “based” than China ever was. the “jew fears the samurai” meme I believe is actually quite revealing and funny at the same time. it was not that long ago historically that Japan was the only East Asian nation truly challenging the ((west)) while China was a giant opium whore.

    • Replies: @nokangaroos
  126. I think this was a masterstroke of diplomacy by Russia. Laying all out on the table. Stating plainly they were lied to and the circumstances under which they were lied to… So now they want it in writing a guarantee so that if it is reneged on they can go to the world and say “this is why we are taking this action”. They know 5 Eyes can’t be trusted (Canada is really so bold). Lavrov said it right plainly about Anglo Saxon countries….

    This here is a good example of what China needs to learn from Russia. Every dispute the US tries to bring against China – China has a valid “legal” argument – but they never plainly state the case as Russia has done. Taiwan and the South China Sea are perfect examples. When the US and China established diplomatic relations – they agreed on the “Joint Communiques” and the US promised to facilitate peaceful reunification and to remove all troops from Taiwan and eventually stop selling weapons. The US Congress then went and passed the “Taiwan Relations Act” which basically reneged on everything in the Joint Communiques. When Japan surrendered at the end of WW2 the US had them sign over those South China Sea islands to the the US allied Republic of China side – who had retreated to Taiwan – in the Treaty of Taipei. When the communists took over the mainland all they did was simply continue the claims. Beijing doesn’t spell these things out.

    So I am very impressed by Russia’s statecraft. They are very wise. No doubt the US is in a bind and that’s why it doesn’t want it’s reply revealed to the public. What’s that garbage they always say about “transparency”??? Give me a break. Good to see countries like Croatia pushing back… But they are an example of “why would you want to sign up for NATO in the first place?” But my guess is they say what happened to Serbia via NATO and said it was better to join the gang rather than get rolled over by the gang….

    I think deep down Russia knew the US and UK would refuse to back track NATO to its 1997 borders. But now there is no cover when countries in the western hemisphere like Venezuela and Cuba and Nicaragua accept Russian weapons that are “defense” – using the same game NATO does.

  127. @Old Brown Fool

    You are projecting western values of domination. Did you not see what the Iranian FM said when he went to China recently? He said Chinese and Persians have had dealings for millenia – and always got along. Those were times when China was at it’s apex in the past. If you don’t try to bully Chinese – you have no problem. Merkel understood that – and that’s why German companies got far more concessions in China than other western nations. Russia understands that as well. The only way the relationship with China would change is if an “Atlanticist” takes over Russia after Putin. Something Mike Pompeo recently wrote about the US trying to make happen.
    Sri Lanka and Kenya government delegations and companies get treated with the same respect by China as those from the US and UK. Don’t believe me? Go ask them. Go read their press. They say openly that’s why they prefer taking loans and and investment from China rather than the IMF and World Bank etc.

    • Replies: @Old Brown Fool
  128. @Anonymous

    Pffffftttt… and why would Russia suddenly ally itself with Germany after being repeatedly stabbed by Germany?

    You say that China is in trouble due to malinvestements, I don’t see it. They punctured the bubble of Evergrande in a controlled and timely manner, so they’re quite on top of what’s going on economically with their country.

    I would worry more about the European economy instead. It never truly recovered from the crisis in 2008 and it’s not properly recovering from the crisis in 2020. Furthermore, Germany (the engine of the European economy) is dependent on Russian gas, but they’re having a huge bxtchfest against Russia about every four-year cycle. It’s like watching an unstable person cutting their own nose off to spite their face — though I assume that must be the parasitical Anglo-Saxon influence which is heavily present in zombie-Germany and the rest of continental Europe.

    In contrast, the Russians and Chinese have a good gig going on between them. Russia’s largest trading partner (both import and export) is now China. China supplanted the EU in importation of Russian agriculture after the EU put sanctions on Russian products. Now zombie- EU is having a hot-and-cold sanctions bxtchfest over Ukraine and China is saying “I’ll buy Russian gas and I’m willing to pay more per kuub gas than those Europeans do without any bxtching about your politics like those Europeans do!”, so who do you think the Russians are going to prefer dealing with?

    The Russian relationship with Europe has been tumultuous at best throughout history, having faced several invasions at their western border from Nazi Germany, to French Napoleon, to the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth, to even the Swedes, and now it’s the NATO alliance encroaching on their backyard.

    In contrast, Russia basically has had no wars with the Chinese at all, apart from that tiny border skirmish half a lifetime ago in 1969 when Russia was still the Soviet Union. The major threats to Russia’s eastern borders came from the Mongols when Genghis Khan came to power and from Imperial Japan during WW2.

    As for current border issues, there are none between the PRC and Russia as they settled all of them back in 2008. Taipei, on the other hand, does have border disputes with Russia, but no one seriously believes the ROC will get back into power any time soon. The prognosis for any possible future threats of incursion is also practically zero for Russia, considering that China’s population is not growing anymore and the Chinese citizens are already moving away from the northern borders with Russia, because of its harsh climate.

    So, going by the trends of history, both recent and those stretching back centuries, who do you think makes a more stable ally and partner for the Russians?

    The problem with your thinking it’s that you believe Europeans must pull Russians to your side to fight against the Chinese. This is typical of binary Cold War thinking and not very popular, nor productive, in the modern world and it will not make you any friends in the long term. The Chinese have never tried to keep their Russian friends hostage to fight against Europe, like the USA is currently doing with its European allies in regards to Russia and its Asian allies in regards to China, so why do you insist on making enemies with the east?

    • Agree: showmethereal
  129. @HakkoIchiu

    You learned fake Japanese history… Much of Japan’s culture is based on Tang Dynasty China. Do you even realize where the Japanese marking of epoch’s of time came from??? The characters in the alphabet???

    You are correct it is unlikely that Japan will ever form an alliance with China. For centuries Japan resented China – like a younger brother who always wanted to usurp the bigger brother. Especially since China used to protect Korea from Japanese aggression.

    But Japan still has delusions of grandeur because of US backing and has been mouthing that it wants the Kuril islands back from Russia. Remember that China still looks at Japan as a little brother. Russia has NO SUCH affinity towards the Japanese. So they put their S400 on those islands and their other near shore missile systems to remind Japan to not le the US boost their head up again. They won’t allow a repeat of the Russo Japanese war… Hence the naval drills and circumnavigation of Japan with China.
    Please tell me who actually likes Japan in Asia??? Only the countries that the US tells that they should. But that doesn’t always work either. One of the things North and South Koreas agree on is their loathing of Japan for it centuries of aggression.

    • Replies: @HakkoIchiu
  130. @HakkoIchiu

    Though the Chinese may have had as big an impact on the east as the Roman empire had on the west, the Chinese are not Romans and will never be like Romans. That’s why historically Rome fell and died, whereas China came back every dynastic cycle.

    The reason for this is simple. The Romans enjoyed waging war and emptied their coffers to pay their overstretched military to assert their dominance over their vassals. The Chinese don’t like war, because war is too expensive, that’s why the Chinese historically prefer not to wage any offensive wars, so they set up the tributary system to assert their influence instead, which basically means — you acknowledge me as superior through gifts and I will give you preferential access to my great internal market.

    In other words, the difference between ancient Rome and ancient China is that one asserted dominated through military and the other did so primarily through economic means. These same patterns are being repeated today, with the USA asserting its dominance through violent regime change and illegal invasions of sovereign countries, whereas modern China already showed some examples of re-establishing its assertive nature by economically countersanctioning Australian wines and other products.

    • Thanks: showmethereal
    • Replies: @HakkoIchiu
  131. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Biff K

    West Ukrainians ARE Polish. They speak Polish better than Poles. I’ve lived around both for 70 years.

    That they’re Polish is news to most of them as well as yours truly. Suspect likewise on the claim that they speak Polish better than Poles.

    I’ve heard it said that Ukrainians are Polonized Russians. Conversely, I’ve heard it said that Ukrainians are Russified Poles. Unlike Poles, the Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians trace their origin back to Rus.

    • Replies: @annamaria
    , @Biff K
  132. @Anonymous

    Ming and Joseon had quite good relations if I’m not mistaken, after they jointly managed to kick the Mongols out. Yes, Japanese power is probably at its lowest in recent memory. Their most prominent backer is a neurotic dumpster fire and all of their immediate neighbors hate them. Will be very interesting to see how they proceed from here…

  133. @Mary Marianne

    All good points, though it’s arguable that modern China cannot afford to adopt a pacifistic position in light of the geopolitical conundrums of the day.

  134. @showmethereal

    Yes Kanji and material culture was largely derived from Tang China but I speak in terms of general behavior and mindset. I’ve always found Japan to be very distinct in its region even relative to its next-door neighbor Korea which is very much Sinicized. It’s cultural foundations are built on Shinto and Buddhism with a very superficial layer of Confucianism/Legalism which the Chinese and Koreans largely adhered to from the time Japan broke off relations and went into isolation post-Tang. Also, I’d argue most Southeast Asians and Taiwanese are very Japanophile but are indeed unlikely to take sides in any conflict against China. They wouldn’t have the economic or industrial strength for it anyhow.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  135. anon[138] • Disclaimer says:
    @PJ London

    Churchill was a big betrayer . He was indebted to Jewish economic and media forces for his rise and for his sustenances. The succors offered to him by the Jewish forces included his daily expenditures ,travels, and even expenses for the marriage ceremony .

    But those above quotes are mostly invented by `others (( Zionists ))to put a doubt in to the Jewish role into the rise of Churchill . By disproving the quotes ’s origin ,the deceit to hide the Zionism’s fathering of Churchill would succeed .

  136. antibeast says:
    @HakkoIchiu

    China really does look like a Roman Empire for Asians doesn’t it?

    China built the Great Wall to keep out its Northern neighbors — those Xiongnu-Turko-Mongol nomadic tribes who moved West to conquer Eurasia. The Great Wall marked the borders between China — the Civilized World of East Asia — and the Northern Barbarians. With the exception of the Yuan and Qing Dynasties, China never invaded Southeast Asia which is across the South China Sea even though it had the naval power to do so during Admiral Zheng Ho’s voyages. When the Han and Tang did acquire new territories in Central Asia, it was to secure trade routes via the Silk Road, not to colonize alien lands. The most expansionist periods in Chinese history actually were from two foreign rulers of China, namely, the Mongol Yuan and the Manchu Qing.

    In contrast, the Roman Empire conquered the whole of the Mediterranean out of lust for power and greed for wealth, with Roman Imperialists capturing European Slaves from vanquished lands and practicing White Slavery on a continental scale. The Western Empires that arose during the Age of Imperialism followed the same script as the Roman Empire, starting with Catholic Spain, Portugal and France and ending with the Dutch, British and Anglo-American Empires. Those Western Imperialists were driven by the same motives as the Roman Imperialists — lust for power and greed for wealth — while practicing African Slavery on a continental scale.

    • Replies: @anon
    , @Anon
  137. @MarcusAurelius

    NATO exists “to keep the Russians out, the US in, and the Germans down”.

  138. @Quartermaster

    NATO is only defense?? So what happened in Yugoslavia was defense?? What happened in Libya was defense? What happened in Iraq was defense??? How do you get that??

  139. @Beckow

    “But for Washington or London any climb-down would be a PR disaster, so they have to push and hope for the best.”

    It will probably end up like the Cuban Missile Crisis. The US gets to make big boasts about how they go Russia to stand down – while not telling the public that the US had to agree to remove missiles from near to Russia also – in order to get Russian missiles out of Cuba.

    • Agree: Commentator Mike
    • Replies: @Beckow
  140. Here is an example of the many things that the U.S. is plagued with. On a well known far leftist forum, which however is quite large, a story with the following title was printed, “Why Extremists in America Now Have a Chance to Win. ” By extremists it was referring to Trump supporters and conservative Americans in general. Then on a following story right below this one they had a story with this title, “A women asked, ” Why all this fuss because of a f–ing cop that was killed.” SIGH…… Can anyone see why this country is in serious trouble? A felon is killed and the whole U.S. must glorify this guy to the point of his killing causing the deaths of many more people around the nation. A cop is killed and some people have a problem with the traffic his funeral causes.

  141. Beckow says:
    @Levtraro

    ….Russia has to do something.

    I think Russia will do something. But my point was that it doesn’t have to be in Ukraine. Washington is almost desperately trying to focus on Ukraine and they want Russia and whatever is left of Ukraine to have something resembling a war, or something they can declare a “war” for the Western gullible populations.

    The reasons are obvious: increase hostility between Russians and Ukrainians, distract from NATO previous expansions and missiles in Poland-Romania, but above all Washington can stay out of it. They are scared, that’s why the hysteria and panic. If they can reframe this as “Russia invasion of Ukraine” it allows them to scream and yell, but do nothing. If Russia takes out a missile base in Poland or a ship in Black See or anything that personal for NATO they would have to respond militarily. They very much prefer not to have to face it.

    Russia can sit on its advantage: NATO in eastern Europe is too weak to defend itself and they know it. For PR reasons they cannot withdraw, but their local positions are unsustainable militarily. They are sitting ducks. Their only response is a nuclear exchange and that’s not popular with their people who don’t want to die for a made-up principle like “any state can join any military alliance, so you all shut-up”.

    It is a zugzwang caused by the Western incredible and emotional stupidity so a prolonged stand-off and allowing things to cool down would be another acceptable outcome. Based on simple complexity of the situation it is unlikely to happen that way, any random act can trigger unraveling. Waiting for Franz Ferdinand to come prancing around, maybe they can send BoJo.

  142. Beckow says:
    @showmethereal

    …probably end up like the Cuban Missile Crisis.

    Could happen that way but the level of awareness today is too high. Public would know and that is an absolute PR disaster. The public in eastern Europe would definitely know and that would impact how they perceive the West.

    Since 90% of what Washington does now is about PR, losing face is simply not an option. That’s what makes it so hard. They probably at least hinted to Russia that would be the way to go, but having a local advantage (actually a dominance), Russians don’t seem to be willing to play that game. At least not yet.

  143. @Anonymous

    Korea was a tributary state of China…. So when Japan would attack Korea – prior to the 1800’s when China fell apart… China would aid Korea and beat back Japan. When Japan invaded Korea in the late 1800’s the first thing it did was end that tributary status as Japan resented it for centuries because they felt superior to the Koreans. Korea was often the go between for China and Japan. So Japan decided – no tributary – but direct colonization of Korea. While contemporary thought may have changed (mainly because of US influence) – if you see this Korean scholarship link below – most Korean writing of antiquity – the leaders and scholars would note basically that a prosperous China meant a prosperous Korea:

    http://has.hallym.ac.kr:8001/Upload/ades_asia_study_data/%EA%B3%BC%ED%95%99%EC%9B%90%20%EC%98%81%EB%AC%B8%EC%A0%80%EB%84%90Vol.3_3%20InSungJang.pdf

    As to economic dependency…. Ummm -China is South Korea and Japan’s largest trade partner by far. More so South Korea.
    As to missile coverage. Well all you have to do is look up the YJ12 and YJ 18 missiles… Then the DF 21 and 26. It’s already happened.

    https://sputniknews.com/20211019/tokyo-closely-watching-naval-activities-near-japan-in-wake-of-russia-china-joint-drills-1090034240.html

    Japan joining Aukus is exactly why Russia and China together had join naval drills right next to Japan and circumnavigated Japan with their naval ships. There is nothing “natural” about Japan being in AUKUS. Japan is an Asian country – regardless of what they think. When push comes to shove they become “Japs” again to westerners very quickly. You forget the 1980’s.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  144. @Anon

    Did Trump bad mouth the Euros because he wanted them to accept a fair share of their own defense? When WW2 ended and the authoritarian systems collapsed, the communists who had been waiting in the wings, immediately took over. They did so, largely in the educational arena in Western Europe. The “professors” taught communist/socialist ideas at all the famous European universities. They did so free of censorship. The Europeans are infected with this today and is one main reason a super capitalist like Trump, was immediately hated in Western Europe. Eastern Europe fell to Soviet tanks. Western Europe, although nominally free, fell to Soviet ideology. Many of the free Western Nations in Europe suffered nothing but constant communist pressure in their universities after the war.

    • Thanks: Johann Ricke
  145. antibeast says:
    @Anonymous

    Japan is a natural member of AUKUS, as it is clearly an Oceanic power that is just too small to become a dominant Oceanic power, as was demonstrated in WW II. It will be interesting to see how that develops, as Japan has never in its previous history been in alliance with near peer nations.

    No, Japan is not a ‘natural’ member of AUKUS, anymore than India. Although both Japan and India are members of the QUAD, neither of them were consulted about the formation of AUKUS. That alone proves how ‘unnatural’ the QUAD is which was supposed to serve as the ‘Indo-Pacific’ alliance of the USA.

    You also miss the historic fact that Japan and England were allies prior to WWII. That didn’t stop Japan from ditching England in favor of an alliance with Nazi Germany to form the Axis Powers which started WWII.

    Lastly, I don’t see how Japan can be described as an ‘Oceanic’ power as it doesn’t possess a Blue Water Navy capable of projecting its military power across the high seas. China on the other hand is building its own Blue Water Navy, making it an ‘Oceanic’ power.

    • Replies: @CosmicMythos
  146. @anon

    The dynamic is interesting … Germany and Japan the bright but flickering flame,
    Russia and China the immovable object (the US is more something of a growth).
    It is however undeniable Germany and Japan are broken for the foreseeable
    future while one historian likened China to a giant fat prickly hog in a waller:
    No matter what you do all you get is a grunt and a slight adjustment of
    posture 😀
    The Sons of Amaterasu have forgotten the Plaza “Accords” where their
    Heroic Liberators ™ took away their trade surplus at gunpoint and kicked
    them into debt peonage – I wouldn´t call that “based” (but the potences
    in either case are still there).

  147. peterAUS says:
    @HakkoIchiu

    Yep.
    Found this book
    S.C.M. Paine – The Japanese Empire_ Grand Strategy from the Meiji Restoration to the Pacific War-Cambridge University Press (2019)
    quite interesting in that regards.

    Now, on a related but different track.
    I’ve just seen that TV show Pacific. I guess you’ve seen it too. Not impressed. Just me.

    There is one element, though, from there that I’d like to ask about:
    Depiction of The battle of the Tenaru I guess. The annihilation of the Ichiki Detachment to be more precise.
    Watching those infantry assaults was…unsettling, actually.

    Now, before anybody starts lecturing me about the topic I do have some personal experience there (or so I say). No way anybody of us would “bound” if a machinegun was heard at the opposite side. With “zips” one could try to take a peek. With “cracks” and ricochets all of us played moles.

    Having said all that what I’d like to know is what the lone Japanese survivor soldier was saying before getting shot by Robert Leckie.

  148. @Levtraro

    IOW, cozy and fraternal relations with Russia.

  149. anon[104] • Disclaimer says:
    @antibeast

    There ’s a reason USA wrapped itself with Roman names ,ideals ,and Roman sense of historical place in the world . American founding father looked at Rome as the model .

  150. @MLK

    That ain’t in the cards until the Potemkin Village Idiot is removed and Trump is back where he belongs

    And since the Democrat scum with the help of their ((( friends))) successfully stole the last election to put the vicious, senile old cretin where he is now, without so much as a formal public Enquiry – let alone any form of punishment or full political restitution – so they know they can now steal the next election too, and the next, and the next after that, Trump being “back where he belongs” is simply never going to happen.

    The US is screwed without direct action now.

  151. erzberger says:
    @emerging majority

    Not only Churchill quotes. Human Smoke was a total eye opener for me. And the only book ever stolen from my home library. Only got the audio book left

  152. @Quartermaster

    I wasn’t going to bother replying to your garbage until this:

    Putin’s imperialistic ambitions

    Please leave. You are lowering the average IQ of this forum.

  153. @Old Brown Fool

    And China will throw its weight around the world.

    Do a reading of history.

    The Chinese know when to lay off and back off, and they also instinctively know that all parties must benefit equally from any relationship.

    That’s their entire diplomatic history, in a nutshell. China doesn’t do it this way merely out of its philosophical values. It has learned, from its own history, that it’s better to be merely “influential” forever, than to be “all-powerful” for a very short time.

    China has also learned, again through thousands of years of experience, that artificial means of suppressing peoples and cultures will simply not work.

    Colonial empires, rigged economic systems (which produce nothing), “alliances” designed not to defend but only to contain, and any “crusade” or “jihad” of any sort – these all, in the fullness of time, will always FAIL.

    Does anyone actually see China becoming any sort of American-style hegemon, trying to subordinate any others’ societies and nations under its own? RIDICULOUS.

    The influence of China in a future world will not even approach that of Germany in Europe today. They don’t seek to control the financial system, or the politics, or the industry, or the media of any other state or society.

    They will have a strong voice, yes. Will they dictate even the smallest piece of legislation, or the most minor policy? I don’t see it.

    Does anyone believe, for an instant. that such proud and independent peoples as the Russians, the Iranians, the Pakistanis, the Arabs, the Turks, the Koreans or anyone else would ever be on (very) friendly terms with the Chinese if they saw China as exerting “dominance”?

    It’s very simple, when China says everyone can win, they back it up with solid action and sincere effort.

    In no way am I saying the Chinese character is better than anyone else’s. But China’s enlightened self-interest, its own desire to succeed, leads it to behave in such a way that allows ALL to succeed.

    In Europe, Belgium or Denmark can tell Germany, France or Britain to f___ off, without consequence.
    In the coming world, the influence of China, Russia or the United States will be even less than that – just strong voices in a huge hall where everyone can be heard, and treated equally.

    • Agree: showmethereal
  154. erzberger says:
    @Mary Marianne

    Poor Russia! always suffering, always being invaded by European countries but nevertheless ending up the largest country on earth. A miracle

    • Troll: mulga mumblebrain
  155. @antibeast

    I don’t see how Japan can be described as an ‘Oceanic’ power

    Japan has been historically described as “Oceanic” because any hope it has of exerting military-geopolitical dominance is via the sea, not on land.

    On most any continent, on land, Japan is quite hopeless. Think about it, where can Japan, by itself, actually invade and topple governments, even should it want to?

    Maybe they could pull it off in hitherto undeveloped South America and Africa. (Not for much longer, as those places are developing fast). If they would steel themselves for the inevitable insurgencies, Japan might have a very slim chance of success. Japanese land armies might manage to invade selected countries in the Middle East (but not the larger ones). Anywhere else, they would just lose.

    Britain also, by itself, and Australia, with its small population and industry, are necessarily “Oceanic”.

    Most other large nations are not exclusively oceanic. They build powerful navies by choice, to protect their trade and to guard against predation from the sea.

  156. Hoyeru says:

    once again, NOT a very good article.
    the main ideas USA/UK is simple: make Ukraine attack Donabass causing Russia to react, then smear Russia economy.
    All that cutesy talk about NATO leaving mummy’s basement is useless BS and doesnt make a good article.

    • Agree: Commentator Mike
  157. annamaria says:
    @Mary Marianne

    There was also the Crimean War in the middle of the 19th century, which Russia lost “to an alliance of France, the Ottoman Empire, the United Kingdom, and Piedmont-Sardinia.”

    A letter by Mikhail Pogodin (a professor of history at Moscow University), exposing the supercharged British hypocrisy that has never subsided:

    France takes Algeria from Turkey, and almost every year England annexes another Indian principality: none of this disturbs the balance of power; but when Russia occupies Moldavia and Wallachia, albeit only temporarily, that disturbs the balance of power.
    France occupies Rome and stays there several years during peacetime: that is nothing; but Russia only thinks of occupying Constantinople, and the peace of Europe is threatened.
    The English declare war on the Chinese, who have, it seems, offended them [by trying to curtail malicious opium trade by Jewish traders Sassoons. The Sessions used the British military to subdue the Chinese!]: no one has the right to intervene; but Russia is obliged to ask Europe for permission if it quarrels with its neighbor.
    England threatens Greece to support the false claims of a miserable Jew and burns its fleet: that is a lawful action; but Russia demands a treaty to protect millions of Christians, and that is deemed to strengthen its position in the East at the expense of the balance of power. We can expect nothing from the West but blind hatred and malice. … – Comment in the margin by Nicholas I: ‘This is the whole point.’

    • Thanks: Mary Marianne
  158. annamaria says:
    @Mikhail

    Map of territories annexed to Ukraine:
    https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-5ed5c845f450254c5a36ee01c7cb4b30

    A territory that used to belong to Poland:

  159. @anon

    Note also the repeated depictions of fasces, the symbols of Roman Republican State power, sprinkled around the US Capitol building. Mussolini, a great favourite of the US elite, liked them, too.

  160. @HakkoIchiu

    Yes though the Buddhism that Japan adopted is Zen Buddhism which is a Chinese version… Kind of like South America got Catholicism from Spain/Portugal as opposed to mainly Protestant North America from England etc.

    As to Japanophiles in South East Asia and Taiwan… Nah – that’s just US influence. Japanese like Americans brutalized Filipinos. Same with those on Taiwan. It’s only because of politics now the DPP tries to be friendly with Japan. Some of the ones that lived under Japanese colonialism and prospered like Japan – but most hated Japan… Only in recent decades has that changed for political reasons.
    Malays witnessed the brutality of the Japanese – though they will tell you Japanese especially targeted killing Chinese in Malaysia. Only Thailand had generally good relations with Japan. They weren’t much influence until the modern era.
    Take away US influence and their would be no real affinity to Japanese in Asia.

  161. @anon

    Yes and in Washington DC there is a lot of Roman optics – in case people didn’t get the point by the government structure itself.

  162. What happened to the Iran threat? Haven’t heard a peep in weeks’

    • Replies: @Wielgus
    , @showmethereal
  163. Anon62 says:

    Ground Truth on the Ukraine “conflict.”

    From MoA comments:

    I would just like to report: I am in Odessa right now. Landed from Poland in Odessa, with a western European passport. Border checks were minimal and solely related to Covid. Crossed into “russian occupied” Tiraspol, once again quite chill mood at the border. Crossed back into Ukraine, and, guess what. Local TV is showing their usual stuff and local news are more concerned about domestic issues than the supposed imminent war.

    I realized that what is said about Ukraine in the western news is considerably more “fanatic”, “patriotic” than within Ukraine itself. There is a huge disconnection between real Ukraine and CNN Ukraine. Really relevant news such as the five soldiers killed by a berserk companion, rising living costs, poverty simply seem to do not exist. The more impossible World War 3 seems to ukrainians themselves, the more western propaganda ramps up. It is hilarious.

    • Thanks: annamaria
    • Replies: @Patrick Armstrong
  164. I saw it at the start but hadn’t realised until Lavrov’s interview how important this part of the diplomatic move is.

    But now that we have cited the promises made not in word but in the form of documents signed by the leaders of all OSCE states, including the US President (the 1999 Istanbul Declaration and the 2010 Astana Declaration), our Western partners have to find a way out of a very serious situation. The point is that both declarations set out the participating states’ commitment to the principle of indivisible security and their pledge to honour it without fail. This principle was formulated very clearly. It includes two interconnected approaches. The first is the freedom of states to choose military alliances. The second is the obligation not to strengthen their security at the expense of the security of other states. In other words, the freedom to choose security arrangements is conditioned by the pledge to respect the security interests of any other OSCE state, including the Russian Federation… I told him, just as I have told our other colleagues, that we would shortly send them an official request for an explanation why they choose only one of their commitments and disregard the other commitments on which its implementation depends. It will be an official request sent to all countries whose leaders signed the Istanbul and Astana declarations. I hope that it will not take them long to explain the Western position.
    https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1796041/

    Making us face up to our hypocrisy

    • Replies: @Mikhail
  165. @Anon62

    Ze is learning that his BFFs probably won’t even bother to come to his funeral. So, do you think he is smart enough to figure that he only has one friend and that one is in… wait for it… well you guess where is the only leader who won’t sell him out in an instant

    • Replies: @Anon62
  166. Wielgus says:
    @Carroll price

    Only one “threat” can be handled at a time.

  167. Anonymous[180] • Disclaimer says:
    @showmethereal

    Thanks for the translated article on sadae (http://has.hallym.ac.kr:8001/Upload/ades_asia_study_data/%EA%B3%BC%ED%95%99%EC%9B%90%20%EC%98%81%EB%AC%B8%EC%A0%80%EB%84%90Vol.3_3%20InSungJang.pdf). I hadn’t seen anything on the nature of the relationship between the Chinese and tributary states. In-Sung Jang (and the article’s translator) do an excellent job of making that clear enough to contrast and compare with the West’s idea of government based on family relations and ritual.

    Surprisingly enough, at least to me, is that sadae has an uncanny resemblance to the 1950-perhaps 2016 relationship of the Northeast and the Federal Government to the rest of the United States. The same mix of raw power with cultural reverence as a stabilizing element dominated back then. The Federal Government could say that we all had to wear purple underwear and change it every hour, and wear the underwear over our other clothes so they could check (Woody Allen reference, search for “Dictator’s Speech Bananas” in YouTube for the scene), and the proposal would have received serious consideration, perhaps to be modified to white underwear, only the lower half, and a two hour changing period by the workings of the West’s sadae equivalent. After all, the idea of the Great Society worked out even worse than the purple underwear project would have.

    OK, having said that, it’s obvious that Korea could come to terms with a Confucian society if it had to. The US used to look at Europe that way — sure, Europe couldn’t touch us militarily, but they knew how to live and we didn’t, as we were too busy in the practice of living to understand the right way to do it. Something similar was said about sex back in the late 1960s. The funny thing is that I’m being sarcastic above, but the Americans of the time really believed what I’m being sarcastic about. It took a direct threat to life and health (the Covid affair mixed with the Afghanistan rout and the “open boarders” fiasco) to change that attitude.

    Back to Korea. Korea could come to terms with a Confucian society if it had to. The PRC isn’t Confucian. It is Chinese Legalism pretending to be Confucian. Confucianism in the Chinese Mainland was largely destroyed during the Cultural Revolution, and appears to have been replaced by a sort of centralized and highly directive Utilitarianism. In contrast, Taiwan is, apparently, Confucian, and China apparently wants destroy that Confucian government. Hong Kong is also being remade. It is not at all certain that Korea could count on a the parent-child relationships of sadae in dealing with the PRC, and Korea might no want to take a chance on sadae prevailing.

    China is South Korea and Japan’s largest trade partner by far. More so South Korea.

    It will take considerable time for a new world trade system to develop. If the new system is neo-mercantile and the world has a three weakly competing superstates organization, Korea could find itself in an Oceania area of influence (the Portugal analogy I used before), or in an EastAsia area of influence. Under a mercantile system, a secondary power doesn’t get much choice who it trades with.

    all you have to do is look up the YJ12 and YJ 18 missiles… Then the DF 21 and 26.

    The US Navy doesn’t think so, nor does the PRC government. These systems are untested in combat. They may or may not work in real life, and nobody wants to bet more than they can stand to lose on an untested military system. Over the long term the reliability of sea denial missile systems will be determined, and at that point Korea may well find its costal waters within an area of Chinese control. Remember, geography dictates that sea denial of Korea’s East coast cannot be based in China.

    There is nothing “natural” about Japan being in AUKUS. Japan is an Asian country – regardless of what they think.

    With the population of all its neighbors base populations hating Japan, Japan has to ally with somebody to protect it from its neighbors. Japan switched from being an occupied nation to a

    de facto

    ally during the Korean War. The US is a founding member of AUKUS, and Japan could simply continue its present alliance under a new name. Remember, countries don’t have friends, they have interests.

    When push comes to shove they become “Japs” again to westerners very quickly. You forget the 1980’s.

    Didn’t happen. US had an overwhelmingly favorable image of Japan during that interval. Search “Dilber.com” for the term Japan to see some of that image. Same thing for the Asian Tigers. The Japanese success was considered a model for the US to follow right up until Japan’s real estate market failed.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  168. annamaria says:

    My apology for the lengthy repost, but this comparison of Obama’s criminal policies in Syria with Obama-Biden’s criminal policies in Ukraine exposes an arch of deception committed by US government on orders from US ‘owners” – banksters, MIC, and multinational corporations. https://thesaker.is/virtual-ukrainian-invasion-virtually-imminent/

    Obama and Syria:

    In Chapter 11 of the book, “United States, Russia, and Outside Powers” Reese Erlich writes: “… the Obama administration was pursuing a secret military track. The CIA began overseeing arms shipments to the Free Syrian Army no later than June 2012… The CIA began directly arming and training rebels in early 2013 (see chapter 5). … the State Dept. was populated with ‘humanitarian interventionists,’ people who favor one or another form of military intervention by claiming it will, in the end, protect civilians. ‘But we never discuss the legality of such attacks, let alone the morality … ‘They’ll always find a way to justify whatever policy is decided.’

    Obama-Biden and Ukraine:

    Claims of “invasion” have been circulating on and off for the past 8 years [since the ziocons-arranged “most blatant coup” in Kiev], and started sounding louder in April of 2021. …

    At the beginning of December [2021], Russia’s Ministry of Defense issued an unheard-of warning about the possibility of the false flag attack in Ukraine with someone impersonating the Russian military. A couple of days later, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that it had handed the Biden administration demands for the security guarantees, and in another two days, the rest of the document was posted on the ministry website. The demand for the security guarantees for Russia from the US and NATO acted as a giant monkey wrench thrown into the spinning wheel of the Western propaganda of the “invasion of Ukraine.”

    On Friday, January 28, the DOD and Biden administration announced the “imminent” invasion of Ukraine during a Biden/Zelensky phone conversation. Zelensky disagreed and, counterintuitively, insisted that there wasn’t much proof that the Russian army was going to “invade Ukraine.” According to CNN, the conversation “did not go well.” … The White House and Pentagon have been emphatic that they believe the attack could be “imminent.”

    The Zerohedge article collected a hilarious confusion of the warmongering CNN coming with war propaganda and then removing it after a few hours and claiming that they were deceived by their source in the Zelensky administration.

    … we witness a giant mix of fear, greed, hatred, russophobia, incompetence, bloodlust, and pure clinical insanity, which constitute modern American policy-making.

    Sigh…

  169. Anonymous[180] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mary Marianne

    You say that China is in trouble due to malinvestements, I don’t see it.

    High speed rail: Good only for trips of about 500 miles. All those were completed a decade ago. Now most high speed rails lack the traffic to pay their bills. Some can’t even pay electricity costs; all have continuing personnel and maintenance costs.
    Construction: Much of the new construction is “tofu” grade. China can print money and say the problem is solved, but has in fact not paid foreign investments or supplied housing to Chinses citizens that paid for it. It would have to pay for demolition and then construction to achieve what honest work would have provided in the first place. In the meantime, China will have trouble getting foreign investment.
    Belt and Road: The program has deteriorated into a search for countries that will take Chinese money to hire Chinese firms staffed by Chinese personnel and laborers, there being no other way to keep them occupied.
    Water diversion from South to North: A megaproject that has produced water too expensive for the North to buy. This is another project that has a stream of future loan payments, maintenance, and personnel costs that cannot be avoided.
    This leaves China with the problem of industrial waste disposal, which has not, to date, been seriously addressed.

    It’s like watching an unstable person cutting their own nose off to spite their face — though I assume that must be the parasitical Anglo-Saxon influence which is heavily present in zombie-Germany and the rest of continental Europe.

    And is currently being ended by the retreat of the US from Asia. Russia plus Germany and several other European countries would make a formidable economic block if allowed to rule themselves.

    The major threats to Russia’s eastern borders came from the Mongols when Genghis Khan came to power and from Imperial Japan during WW2.

    And the Russians still remember Mongol rule. But, more recently, the Russso-Japanese war included the defeat and loss of the entire Russian fleet in the 1905 Battle of Tsushima (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Japanese_War) by a numerically inferior but very well led Japanese force. In Russia, the loss triggered the Revolution of 1905 and indirectly to the successful 1917 revolution, which subsequently proved catastrophic.

    As for current border issues, there are none between the PRC and Russia as they settled all of them back in 2008.

    Chinese settlers continue to migrate into Russian territory. Nobody wants to raise the issue.

    The Chinese have never tried to keep their Russian friends hostage to fight against Europe, like the USA is currently doing with its European allies in regards to Russia and its Asian allies in regards to China, so why do you insist on making enemies with the east?

    As I’ve said, the US is currently abandoning Asia entirely, and that includes Europe. Bush’s attempt to gain influence in central Asia failed, the US attempt to include Russia in the international trade system failed.
    The PRC is more a practitioner of mercantilism than free trade and is certainly not amenable to US influence just now. China’s replacement Confucian society by Legalism within its borders, takeover and subsequent reorganization of Hong Kong, and threats to invade and presumably remake Taiwan. The US has as much chance of controlling China as it does of draining the Pacific Ocean, and is just starting to uncover the influence of Chinese influence operations inside the US.

    So the US has made AUKUS and is bidding a farewell to Asia and the “liberal society” described in Fukuyama’s 1993 The End of History and the Last Man. Just as well, Fukuyama apparently didn’t know it but “The Last Man” was Nietzsche’s highly effective criticism of the West, not a goal for it. Good luck to you, it’s “Asia for the Asians” for the next few decades.

  170. Anonymous[180] • Disclaimer says:
    @anon

    There ’s a reason USA wrapped itself with Roman names ,ideals ,and Roman sense of historical place in the world . American founding father looked at Rome as the model .

    And, of course, the bunch off you go off haring after “Roman means Empire, the US always wanted an empire”.

    Here’s the sense in which the US took Rome as a model:

    https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315095707-8/theory-mixed-constitution-rome-andrew-lintott

    And here’s what happened to it:

    https://theimaginativeconservative.org/2021/02/mixed-constitution-crisis-matthew-pauley.html

    As for wanting an empire:
    https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/jqadams.htmhttps://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/jqadams.htm

  171. @Carroll price

    Oh it’s still there… It’s just not going to well for NATO either.

    • Thanks: DevilAdvocate
  172. @Anonymous

    “Back to Korea. Korea could come to terms with a Confucian society if it had to. The PRC isn’t Confucian. It is Chinese Legalism pretending to be Confucian. Confucianism in the Chinese Mainland was largely destroyed during the Cultural Revolution, and appears to have been replaced by a sort of centralized and highly directive Utilitarianism. In contrast, Taiwan is, apparently, Confucian, and China apparently wants destroy that Confucian government. Hong Kong is also being remade. It is not at all certain that Korea could count on a the parent-child relationships of sadae in dealing with the PRC, and Korea might no want to take a chance on sadae prevailing”

    Too many errors to correct in one paragraph. Those are things viewed from a western lens but aren’t really accurate. it is true the CPC TRIED to get rid of Confucianism… But they couldn’t… And now they embrace him again… Along with other Chinese philosophies such as Daoism. You wouldn’t get it but it is because of the government on Taiwan having claimed to be the “real China” that made the communists make the change. So now they call it “socialism with Chinese characteristics” because you can’t kill thousands of years of Chinese civilization with a 19th century western philosophy.

    In any event – South Korea has far too much US influence to be China’s “little brother” again culturally. But economically and – soon – technologically – it is happening in many ways. Moon was elected after the THAAD debacle stating plainly that South Korea cannot afford to offend China. That’s not my guess – that was openly said in the campaign. That’s also why he said he will not join Quad. Again – stated publicly.

    “Didn’t happen. US had an overwhelmingly favorable image of Japan during that interval.”

    Where were you?? The same exact script Trump used against China in his campaign was recycled almost word for word as to what he said on television in the 80’s about Japan. Then you had congress people smashing japanese products calling for boycotts. Media saying the US should stop selling all it’s real estate to Japan. Anti Asia violence rose. A young Chinese man was murdered in Michigan because they thought he was Japanese and they blamed him for stealing American jobs. It all tampered down after the Plaza Accord neutered Japan’s economy and it was no longer a “danger” to the US. The whole “Made in the USA” campaign was based on repudiating the fact people considered Japanese products superior.

    As to the issue of the missiles… Ummmm – the Pentagon and Rand Corp have said as much (the US has to keep it’s military out of the first island chain because they are too easy to be destroyed now).

    And you again skip over Russia. That is Russia’s neighborhood too. Russia has no desire to see another Russo Japanese war again. And they will not allow the US to use Japan against them either. A war with NATO – people only think of the European theater and not the Asian one. The US has bases in Japan and South Korea (which is why Russia ALSO protested THAAD)… And the Russian Far East abuts Alaska.

    • Replies: @antibeast
    , @Anonymous
  173. @emerging majority

    With mass immigration into Norway, those people are going to be destroyed through race mixing and culturally destroyed by Islam becoming dominant.

    If Russia wins over the West then there is hope for this process being stopped and even reversed with mass deportations.

    Everything is on the table with this undeclared silent war against Whites that (((they))) are waging.

  174. antibeast says:
    @showmethereal

    Too many errors to correct in one paragraph. Those are things viewed from a western lens but aren’t really accurate. it is true the CPC TRIED to get rid of Confucianism… But they couldn’t… And now they embrace him again… Along with other Chinese philosophies such as Daoism. You wouldn’t get it but it is because of the government on Taiwan having claimed to be the “real China” that made the communists make the change. So now they call it “socialism with Chinese characteristics” because you can’t kill thousands of years of Chinese civilization with a 19th century western philosophy.

    Western views on ‘Communist China’ tends to be Orientalist caricatures which makes them prone to exaggerate the impact or influence of foreign ideologies such as Marxism-Leninism on Chinese Society. The fact of the matter is that Marxism-Leninism was too alien to the Chinese masses when the Soviet Cominterm set up shop and founded the CCP in China. That’s why Mao had to invent his own ideology called ‘Maoism’ suitable for China by appealing to the Chinese masses, specifically in the countryside.

    Mao’s Cultural Revolution was a one-off event which suppressed traditional and Classical Chinese Culture but never really destroyed it. By the time Deng opened up China to foreign investors, the Overseas Chinese had flocked en-masse to their ancestral hometowns to rebuild their family shrines and revive traditional Chinese Culture. That’s when the CCP decided to allow the revival of traditional Chinese Culture which quickly spread throughout China during the 1990s. By the late 2000s, the CCP began to appease the KMT by officially promoting both traditional and Classical Chinese Culture in China as part of its reunification talks with Taiwan. This cultural revivalism has now reached the highest levels of Chinese officialdom including Xi himself who wants to rejuvenate China as its own Civilization. Contrary to Western propaganda, Xi is a Chinese nationalist who wants to revive Chinese Civilization based on traditional and Classical Chinese Culture, not revert back to Maoist Communism.

    Similar things are happening in Russia where Putin wants to promote traditional values based on Slavic Orthodox Christianity, reversing seven decades of religious persecution in the USSR. And contrary to Western propaganda, Putin is a Russian nationalist who wants to revive Russian Civilization based on Slavic Orthodox Christianity, not revert back to Soviet Communism.

    Here’s a video on Putin blaming Lenin for destroying the 1,000-year old unitary State of the Russian Empire:

    Here’s a video on Putin comparing Lenin to a prophet who created Soviet Communism as an atheistic religion which later worshipped Lenin as its Saint:

    Both Xi and Putin have adopted the ‘Civilization Paradigm’ as the central organizing principle in China and Russia, respectively. What this means is that whenever political ideologies — Capitalism, Socialism, Liberalism, Authoritarianism — are contested, they are viewed from and subjected to the lens of their respective Civilizations.

    • Thanks: SolontoCroesus
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    , @showmethereal
  175. Mikhail says: • Website
    @Patrick Armstrong

    I saw it at the start but hadn’t realised until Lavrov’s interview how important this part of the diplomatic move is.

    But now that we have cited the promises made not in word but in the form of documents signed by the leaders of all OSCE states, including the US President (the 1999 Istanbul Declaration and the 2010 Astana Declaration), our Western partners have to find a way out of a very serious situation. The point is that both declarations set out the participating states’ commitment to the principle of indivisible security and their pledge to honour it without fail. This principle was formulated very clearly. It includes two interconnected approaches. The first is the freedom of states to choose military alliances. The second is the obligation not to strengthen their security at the expense of the security of other states. In other words, the freedom to choose security arrangements is conditioned by the pledge to respect the security interests of any other OSCE state, including the Russian Federation… I told him, just as I have told our other colleagues, that we would shortly send them an official request for an explanation why they choose only one of their commitments and disregard the other commitments on which its implementation depends. It will be an official request sent to all countries whose leaders signed the Istanbul and Astana declarations. I hope that it will not take them long to explain the Western position.
    https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1796041/

    Duly noted here:

    https://www.eurasiareview.com/01022022-biden-administrations-flawed-stance-on-russia-oped/

    Blinken’s reported shrugged shoulders reply is in line with his openly asking the Chinese to criticize Russia on Ukraine. Neolib-neocon elites appear to not be good at playing role reversal Why TF should China do such, given the Biden admin’s dissing of the Beijing Olympics and Kiev regime culpability?

  176. Anon62 says:
    @Patrick Armstrong

    If Ze has any smarts he realizes his BFFs are likely to precipatate his funeral.

    I think the most intriguing aspect of this verbal conflict and military posturing is the response of the other 190 UN member states. I suspect a great many of them are observing the conduct of the US/UK and the reasoned démarches of the RF and contemplating whose side they wish to be on and which side they seek to pretend to be on until the cost to their self interest rises above the potential cost to their pocketbook.

    Mark Twain, when asked how he went bankrupt responded “slowly at first, then all at once.” I suspect a similar denouement may apply to hegemonic decline.

    Cheers! (And glad to see you have kept CSIS from your door).

    • Replies: @Patrick Armstrong
  177. @Anon62

    Indeed. The West likes to think that it’s the “international community” and the audience for everything. But Moscow knows there are other watching and judging

  178. Anonymous[331] • Disclaimer says:
    @showmethereal

    Where were you?? The same exact script Trump used against China in his campaign was recycled almost word for word as to what he said on television in the 80’s about Japan. Then you had congress people smashing japanese products calling for boycotts. Media saying the US should stop selling all it’s real estate to Japan. Anti Asia violence rose. A young Chinese man was murdered in Michigan because they thought he was Japanese and they blamed him for stealing American jobs. It all tampered down after the Plaza Accord neutered Japan’s economy and it was no longer a “danger” to the US. The whole “Made in the USA” campaign was based on repudiating the fact people considered Japanese products superior.

    Where was I? Industrial engineering department, USA. The attitude among staff and students and visiting industry people was uniformly chagrin at not having kept up with the world.

    While the things you point out happened (except for the anti-Asian bit), the US is a large country, and you can find any kind of event any day of the year. As I recall, a Hmong immigrant shot several members of a gun club during a hunting expedition at around this time. Does this mean serious anti-American lethal action by all Asians?

    What did not happen was exclusion of Japanese (or later, Chinese) manufacture from the American market. The general public conclusion was that it was better for the US to excel than to try to damage Japan. I knew at least one person who joined a Japanese company explicitly to learn about Japanese management. This interest in Japan waned sharply after the Japanese property bubble broke, and it became apparent that Japan had enjoyed significantly lower interest on capital than the US. This was a mistake; even back then giving capital to US corporations was like giving wine to an alcoholic.

    About the Plaza Accord. It is easy to say “xyz happened” when people know nothing about xyz. I’ll content myself with quoting Wikipedia, not known for being a right wing propaganda outlet:

    The Plaza Accord was successful in reducing the U.S. trade deficit with Western European nations, but largely failed to fulfill its primary objective of alleviating the trade deficit with Japan. This deficit was due to structural conditions that were insensitive to monetary policy, specifically trade conditions. The manufactured goods of the United States became more competitive in the exports market, though were still largely unable to succeed in the Japanese domestic market due to Japan’s structural restrictions on imports. The Louvre Accord was signed in 1987 to halt the continuing decline of the U.S. dollar.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plaza_Accord#searchInput

    The various accords had no serious effects on US decline, which I attribute the US attempt to maintain domestic stability, an attempt that simply produces stasis (in the sense of a stalemated civil war, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stasis). Stasis is responsible for the large number of zombie corporations that existed, to my personal knowledge, as long ago as the early 1970s, and are actually dominant today. See: https://finbox.com/blog/zombie-companies/

    As for the rest of your post:

    Too many errors to correct in one paragraph.

    Well, not really. More like two interpretations. Your style of argument is simple contradiction — you say things with certainty, but with no support.

    Consider the argument that “China tried to eliminate Confucianism, but could not”. For that argument to succeed, you would have to say how the Chinese social credit program, and for that matter the cancelable “digital yuan” and the treatment of Hong Kong, is Confucian. In all of these, it’s mind over matter — the central government doesn’t mind if locals protest, and the protest doesn’t matter. That’s Legalism in a nutshell, and is on the face of it incompatible with the parent/child relationship upon which Confucianism rests.

    You do much the same with Russia. I doubt that an alliance between the Russian Federation and the Federal Republic of Germany would (at this point) result in war, especially not a war with Japan.

    And so on. You can believe what you want, this did, after all, used to be a free country, but you might consider that betting on the wrong outcome can lead to nonproductive investment of time and money, and try to see what is happening rather than simply stating your group’s position.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  179. Anonymous[331] • Disclaimer says:
    @antibeast

    First, thanks for the material. I hadn’t seen before how thoroughly Putin has thought things through.

    For example, his statement that the Bolsheviks had structured the USSR around their party so thoroughly that the USSR became a confederation rather than a centrally ruled state. This is consistent with many other sources, the most accessible of which is Spufford’s _Red Plenty_, even though Spufford doesn’t get beyond Russian-Russian interaction.

    Note that the PRC (People’s Republic of China) is similarly structured around the CCP (Chinese Communist Party). The PRC has been relying on its capital boom for legitimacy for about a decade now, and has wasted much of its capital. Central planning just can’t cope with the information gathering and processing load of an industrial economy in peacetime, the more so if the figure of merit is political. Something similar happened to the “third way” in the West — in practice, the two other ways could not be measured and so the third way was simply lost most of the time. Furthermore, even in theory measuring the other “two ways” wouldn’t have been a sure guide to action under any circumstances.

    So the CCP is in trouble. Putin must know that.

    Both Xi and Putin have adopted the ‘Civilization Paradigm’ as the central organizing principle in China and Russia, respectively. What this means is that whenever political ideologies — Capitalism, Socialism, Liberalism, Authoritarianism — are contested, they are viewed from and subjected to the lens of their respective Civilizations.

    Further, assuming that Putin means what he says, he must be aware that Chinese civilization (“Sinic society”, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Asian_cultural_sphere) is a good deal different from Russian Orthodox civilization. This makes a close and lasting alliance of the two difficult at best. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clash_of_Civilizations)

    If you are correct about the relationship between the PRC and the ROC (Republic of China, Taiwan), then the PRC will not invade the ROC. From my standpoint, such an invasion would be an historic tragedy, a great setback to the bulk of the Chinese population finding a way to live in a congenial way for them with industrialization. As it is, the Chinese population is headed towards extinction through low fertility. Such an invasion would also cause a large step function down in semiconductor production, resulting in a severe decline in standard of living. Accordingly, I really strongly hope you are correct.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  180. @MarcusAurelius

    Ensures American political hegemony over Europe and keeps American troops nearby to protect Israel.

  181. @showmethereal

    Yes, my comment was about the West – including the Orthodox Christian one. How China treats other countries when it is the number one power is yet to be seen. Last time it was, China treated the rest of the world with disdain (justified or not). Not much has changed since in the Chinese minds.

    • Replies: @annamaria
    , @showmethereal
  182. antibeast says:
    @Anonymous

    Note that the PRC (People’s Republic of China) is similarly structured around the CCP (Chinese Communist Party). The PRC has been relying on its capital boom for legitimacy for about a decade now, and has wasted much of its capital. Central planning just can’t cope with the information gathering and processing load of an industrial economy in peacetime, the more so if the figure of merit is political. Something similar happened to the “third way” in the West — in practice, the two other ways could not be measured and so the third way was simply lost most of the time. Furthermore, even in theory measuring the other “two ways” wouldn’t have been a sure guide to action under any circumstances.

    That’s a common misconception about ‘Communist China’ from foreigners especially Westerners. The CCP is very different from the CPSU, even under Maoist Communism. Khrushchev found that out when Mao decided to split China from the USSR and go it alone, both in his pursuit of developing nuclear weapons as well as exporting his Maoist People’s Revolution worldwide.

    That was the CCP back then. But the CCP today is more appropriately called the ‘Chinese Confucian Party’ because that’s exactly what it is — a Political Class of Confucianist Technocrats — rather than a Political Party of Marxist-Leninist Ideologues — which confuses Westerners to no end. The Chinese technocrats running China today are well-versed in both Marxism-Leninism and Western Capitalism including its various variants, i.e., Anglo-Saxon ‘laissez faire’ Market Capitalism as practiced in the USA and Nordic-style Social Capitalism as practiced in Northern Europe. They are also aware of the various variants of East Asian Capitalism as practiced in Japan and Singapore. Heck, Chinese officials even know the difference between Anglo-Saxon Liberal Democracy and Nordic-style Social Democracy!

    Further, assuming that Putin means what he says, he must be aware that Chinese civilization (“Sinic society”) is a good deal different from Russian Orthodox civilization. This makes a close and lasting alliance of the two difficult at best.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Asian_cultural_sphere

    What the ‘Civilizational Paradigm’ does is to organize Society and State along immanent characteristics based on ethnicity, language, religion, culture or history rather than political ideologies which are transitory in nature. Russia as its own Civilization based on Slavic Orthodox Christianity and China as its own Civilization based on Sinic Confucianist Buddhist Socialism are both orthogonal to each other with their own geo-cultural spheres of influence. China does not have any problems with Slavic Orthodox Christianity anymore than Russia has any problems with Sinic Confucianist Buddhist Socialism.

    On the other hand, the USA-led Anglo-Saxon West has very little in common with Slavic Orthodox Christian nations like Belarus or Ukraine, both of which were historically under the cultural sphere of influence of Russia as the core State of Slavic Orthodox Christian Civilization. Other Slavic nations such as Poland or Orthodox Christian nations in the Balkans and the Caucasus all the way to Greece could potentially become part of the Eastern Orthodox Christian Civilization led by Russia.

    In a similar vein, the USA-led Anglo-Saxon West has nothing in common with Japan and South Korea, both of which were historically under the cultural sphere of influence of China as the core State of Sinic Confucianist Buddhist Civilization. Other Buddhist nations in Asia such as Sri Lanka or Thailand and Confucianist peoples in Southeast Asia such as Chinese Singaporeans or Chinese Malaysians could potentially become part of the Sinic Confucianist Buddhist Civilization led by China.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clash_of_Civilizations

    What could pose a problem for both Russia and China is the Islamic Wahhabists of Saudi Arabia. And indeed, Putin has had to deal with Islamic Wahhabists in Chechnya while Xi has had to deal with Islamic Wahhabists in Xinjiang, both with ties to Saudi Wahhabism which has been ‘weaponized’ by the West as an insidious instrument of Western Imperialism. Ironically, MBS has denounced Saudi Wahhabism and marginalized the Saudi Wahhabist Imams since coming to power.

    Another potential problem for Russia is Turkey which has had a long history of Huntington-type ‘Clash of Civilization’ with its neighbors Greece and Armenia, both of which are Eastern Orthodox Christian countries. The latest incident involved the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War between Azerbaijan and Armenia which lost the war as it didn’t have the backing of Russia unlike Azerbaijian which had the backing of Turkey. If Russia had backed Armenia as an Eastern Orthodox Christian country, then that territorial conflict would have turned into a proxy war involving a Huntington-type ‘Clash of Civilization’ between Russia’s Orthodox Christianity and Turkey’s Turkic Islam.

    But Islam as a Civilization need not clash with non-Islamic Civilizations as exemplified by Shiite Iran which has established a de-facto alliance with both Russia and China. Iran is unique because of its long history as an Aryan Empire and its ancient culture as an Aryan Civilization based on Zoroastrianism, a millennia before the Prophet Muhammad founded Islam. After the Arab conquered Iran, Islam was introduced to Iranians who converted en masse to the Arabic version of Sunni Islam not under the Arabic Umayyads but under the Iranian Samanids, only to create their own Iranic version of Shiite Islam under the Iranian Safavids, five centuries later. Today’s Shiite Iran is the modern reincarnation of the Safavid Empire 2.0 which views itself as the core State of Islamic Civilization, rivaling Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, the other three Muslim States vying for leadership of the Muslim World. Incidentally, Pakistan has close strategic and defense ties to China, both of which shares a common border with arch-rival India.

    • Thanks: showmethereal
  183. annamaria says:
    @Old Brown Fool

    This “last time” China was within her borders. How many Chinese military bases are around the globe – doing regime-changing, “humanitarian interventions,” and other pretexts for looting and murdering, which are characteristic for the US/UK and NATO.

    It was sanctimonious Great Britain that had sent her sons to protect Sassoon’s opium trade in China in the 19th century. But it is antisemitic to mention millions of Chinese poisoned and destroyed by the Sassoon empire.
    “The Sassoon Family aka ‘The Rothschilds of the East: https://www.realhistorychan.com/the-sassoons-the-rothschilds-of-the-east.html
    That was BEFORE the genocidal Jewish/American project for the Russian empire.

    The First Opium War was fought between the United Kingdom and the Qing dynasty of China, mainly over the trade in opium. The privately-owned British East India Company, (cough cough, Rothschild, cough, cough) had been growing opium in India and smuggling it into China illegally. The influx of narcotics reversed the trade surplus which China had enjoyed while creating millions of opium addicts. Understandably, Chinese officials were not pleased about the British India-China opium trade.

    In 1839, the Emperor instructed viceroy Lin Zexu to stop the trade. To that end, Lin wrote a letter to British Queen Victoria appealing to her moral responsibility to stop the opium trade. Little did the viceroy know that by that time, Queen Victoria was already just a figurehead. It was Rothschild and his ilk that ruled Britannia. There was no response to the letter.

    Finally, Lin resorted to force by confiscating all supplies and ordering a blockade of foreign ships and confiscation their cargoes of opium. The British Rothschild government responded by dispatching its sophisticated heavy gunboats to defeat those of the Chinese. The Chinese were forced to sign the Treaty of Nanking in 1842 — which granted treaty ports to foreign merchants, imposed reparations and ceded Hong Kong Island to the British Empire.

    Thanks to that unjust war, by the 1840s, Sassoon & sons came to dominate the opium trade between India and China. Branching out from Bombay, the drug smuggling low-lives established operations in some of the Chinese port cities which the British now controlled — Shanghai, Hong Kong and Canton. In time, Shanghai would become notorious for its opium use, prostitution, and other vices. The dope, and the shekels, were really flowing now

    Why do Brits never mention the Sassoon’s Opium Empire in relation to the history of Hong Kong? – Too much Sackler?

  184. Anonymous[299] • Disclaimer says:
    @antibeast

    Again, thanks for the summary. You’ve obviously thought this through appear to be professionally active in this area.

    There are a few subjects on which we are not quite communicating, however.

    In a similar vein, the USA-led Anglo-Saxon West has nothing in common with Japan and South Korea, both of which were historically under the cultural sphere of influence of China as the core State of Sinic Confucianist Buddhist Civilization.

    Quite so, on the cultural level. However. China is quite capable of treating Japan the way it has treated Tibet, or for that matter the way Pres. Biden and his supporters are treating the US: forced population replacement. From what I understand, the rest of the Sinic civilization area would be at most highly enthusiastic and at least neutral should this happen. Whether this is justified I don’t want to consider here. The important part is that Japan would most likely be opposed to such a program.
    The US might actually withdraw from Asia into to an Oceanic strategy. The US appears to be doing, forced into such a strategy by the failure of its monumentally stupid Iraq and Afghanistan initiatives, not to mention domestic policies that appear to have destabilized the US. If that is the case, Japan faces a choice between being subsumed into the Chinese (EastAsia) sphere of influence (as an offshore island, a bigger version of Taiwan) or subsumed into the AUKUS sphere of influence (Ociania).
    That choice involves both AUKUS and Japan, hence is “something in common” in the Hobbesian sense of the phrase. Japan may choose to be the Switzerland like neutral within the Oceania coalition, but could not choose that within the EastAsia sphere — it would be like Germans setting up a city government in Israel. I suspect that Japan would choose an AUKUS alliance, if given a choice.

    As far as EastAsia (Urals to Atlantic), it is true that Orthodox Civilization has not much in common with Western European civilization. It is also true that, pre-WW I, Western Europe was a primary source of capital and engineering knowledge for Imperial Russia. It is claimed that the rate of Pre-WW I industrial growth in Imperial Russia exceeded that of the USSR, which was backed by engineering and some funds from the US but concentrated only on heavy engineering.
    Right now, a regression to the Pre-WW I modus vivendi is required by both the Russian Federation (RF), which needs the industrial knowledge of Western Europe, and Western Europe, which badly needs both the resources and (to be blunt) sanity of the Russian Federation.

    What could pose a problem for both Russia and China is the Islamic Wahhabists of Saudi Arabia. And indeed, Putin has had to deal with Islamic Wahhabists in Chechnya while Xi has had to deal with Islamic Wahhabists in Xinjiang, both with ties to Saudi Wahhabism which has been ‘weaponized’ by the West as an insidious instrument of Western Imperialism.

    Islam has been a threat to the Western Europe and Orthodox civilization since AD 700. We’re in agreement that this is unlikely to change. Islam has sense enough to quit pushing openly when it is seriously overmatched, as it was during the 1800s, but right now it is not seriously overmatched.

    Iranian Islam may well be less aggressive than other sorts, although it was notably aggressive in opposing the US in Iran. I’m not sure what is happening in Iran — the country is apparently developing weapons that require both science and engineering, yet both disciplines require the concept of immutable physical laws. Islam has considered its supreme being to be beyond any constraints whatsoever, changing the rules of the universe (or anything else) if it is the supreme being’s will to do so. The idea of a supreme being that is bound by the supreme being’s previous actions is thought to be nonsensical. This means that physical laws can change at any time, and so reliance on these laws is a waste of time, not to mention vaguely heretical.
    https://www.wholereason.com/2015/02/when-islam-abandoned-reason.html

    Iran may be moving away from that, back to the pre-1500s time. That would be a very interesting development with unpredictable outcome. In the present, Iran appears to be an independent actor, as you say, and that’s all I can say about it.

    Incidentally, Pakistan has close strategic and defense ties to China, both of which shares a common border with arch-rival India.

    I would consider that another example of Hobbesian “common interest” in survival, or perhaps just mutual secular advantage.

  185. @antibeast

    A most erudite and deeply researched commentary. Kudos.

    One small pick: A quick peek at the flag of South Korea will suggest that at least within Korean cultural development; that nation is not so much of the Confucian organizational set, as it is Taoistic. Taoism and Confucianism have long vied for the adherence of East Asian civilization. As a practitioner, though hardly an adept of the I-Ching; I consider that tradition to be more holistically connective than the rationalist, analytical, scientistic mindset which conforms well to Confucianism.

    It is my belief, based upon no research data whatsoever, that the more measured and balanced minds in the East look to sages who happen to be adepts in I-Ching divination and its attendant sense of harmonious balance. As for China itself, consider two elements: The system of governance via meritocracy and the exquisite concept of the Celestial Kingdom.

    • Replies: @CosmicMythos
    , @antibeast
  186. The Angluck West failing to convince the Rest. Some good news.



    Video Link

  187. @Levtraro

    SWIFT is headquartered in Belgium. It is not subject to US law. The US was a late arrival and does not have a huge influence. Europeans outvote. Russia so far remains an active member of SWIFT. The chair in 2015 was a Russian.

    Although the USD is utterly dominant as a Reserve Currency, it is far from dominant as a Trading Currency for making payments. Depending on exchange rates, the price of oil and the time of year, the USD and Euro take turns to occupy the #1 spot with about 30-35% of trading volume each. The GB Pound is decisively 3rd with 5-10%, usually about 7%. The Yen and Renimbi follow distantly. So if the US blocks Russia from trading in dollars, there is plenty of capacity for SWIFT to transact in Euro and GB Pounds. The Rouble dropped out of the top 20 in 2014 but in December came back in at #20. (No, the Russian standalone system is not used internationally, not even with China).

    Cutting Russia out of SWIFT means creating difficulties in sourcing Russian gas, oil and agricultural goods. As Brexiters are struggling to understand, the prize in international trade is imports (other peoples added vaue sent to you). Most everybody in a country benefits from imports but they don’t notice until they disappear and prices rise.

    • Thanks: Levtraro
  188. @annamaria

    Jardine, an even bigger opium trader came to run Hong Kong. His firm is still there.

  189. @emerging majority

    The essential core identity and soul of China is Daoism. By far its oldest philosophy, Daoism descends directly from the hunter-gatherer past of China, FAR predating, and never bring replaced by Chinese Confucian and Buddhist thought.

    In fact, it is Confucian teaching, Buddhism and even Legalism which had to adapt themselves, sometimes with mental somersaults, to the primordially ingrained Daoist impulses of the Chinese.

    All Chinese would look askance at anyone who tried to argue that such and such practice was not in conformity with strict doctrines of Legalism/Confucianism/Buddhism. The final arbiter of Cosmic Truth, in the Chinese soul, is the Way of Harmony (with the Universe, that is).

    As such, it is probably just plain wrong to say that Koreans practice the Way more than the Chinese. (In fact, no Asian would ever think that, it’s too ridiculous)

    South Korea is more developed than China, for the moment; this does not make them the exemplar of what remains THE core Hua Xia identity.

    • Replies: @emerging majority
  190. @Anonymous

    Quite so, on the cultural level. However. China is quite capable of treating Japan the way it has treated Tibet, or for that matter the way Pres. Biden and his supporters are treating the US: forced population replacement

    How so? The mechanics of such a program quite elude me, unless there is something I am missing?

    There is not a single country in Asia, or in fact in wider Eurasia, that is not in control of its borders and territory. They all practice that age-old method of territorial control called “using armed force”.

    To do a thought experiment, what would happen if say, 10 million Thais were to try to cross into Myanmar (Burma)? They would be stopped cold at the border by law enforcement, and the Burmese would watch as they set up camps on the Thai side of the frontier.

    If they tried to force their way into Burma, as soon as they set foot in Burmese territory, massive amounts of tear gas, microwave devices and sonic riot control devices would come into play, plus the packs of vicious dogs, and water cannons.

    If all these failed, the Myanmar military would open fire, without the slightest hesitation.

    If Chinese attempted to cross by sea into Japan, the boats would be turned back, and the Japanese coast guard would absolve themselves of all responsibility afterward. There are no migrant flows in Asia, as far as I know.

    Historically, migrations of entire peoples against the will of established populations take place SOLELY as armed invasions (Turkic-Mongol-Manchu into China, Germanics into the Roman Empire, Europeans into the Americas and Australia, Russians into Siberia).

    It is somewhat of a unique event when elites and populations are so much at odds, as we have today regarding the massive waves of immigrants into ALL Western nations.

    The extreme fragmentation of the unity between the mass citizenry and the elite rulers in “the West” is usually, at least in historical experience going back to 3,000 BC, a sure predictor of social, political, and economic breakdown, followed by total collapse and chaos, until new arrangements arise.

    If there happen to be outside pressures as well, say over-commitment abroad, then we have a perfect storm all but guaranteeing catastrophe.

    • Agree: Arthur MacBride
  191. @antibeast

    Great comment. Yeah a lot of it they just watch or read twisted history to make the CPC to seem illegitimate. I remember arguing some time ago with a guy who repeats the same misnomer that all the Chinese artifacts were destroyed in the Cultural Revolution and it was a good thing the KMT took most of them to Taiwan. When in fact the museum in Beijing is far larger and has far more pieces than the one in Taipei. The KMT couldn’t take most of it so they took what they thought was most valuable… And of course they need a lot of space of for all the gold and such in the national treasury. Aside from the fact that the government after the Cultural Revolution they spent lots of money restoring almost every time of history throughout the country that they could find. But hey – it’s hard to convince people who think they “know”.

    And thanks for the clips from Putin. I had seen him say similar things before on a Valdai Club session I watched before. I had the same thought… Putin is very serious about Russian civilization. And that’s why he is hated by the 5 Eyes/G7 nations. Only a form of their civilization is seen as valid.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  192. antibeast says:
    @Anonymous

    Quite so, on the cultural level. However. China is quite capable of treating Japan the way it has treated Tibet, or for that matter the way Pres. Biden and his supporters are treating the US: forced population replacement.

    This is silly nonsense. The Tibetans themselves are the ones moving from Tibet to the Han cities in search of better lives not the other way around. Also, Japan is facing the prospect of a massive decline in population by 2050 which would affect its viability as a globally competitive industrial powerhouse. Either Japan opens its door to mass immigration or its aging society will not be able to renew itself, affecting its tech-driven economy which will decline precipitously as Japanese companies ‘outsource’ their R&D to other countries. That’s also true for South Korea and Taiwan, both of which have the lowest TFR in the world today.

    The US might actually withdraw from Asia into to an Oceanic strategy. The US appears to be doing, forced into such a strategy by the failure of its monumentally stupid Iraq and Afghanistan initiatives, not to mention domestic policies that appear to have destabilized the US. If that is the case, Japan faces a choice between being subsumed into the Chinese (EastAsia) sphere of influence (as an offshore island, a bigger version of Taiwan) or subsumed into the AUKUS sphere of influence (Oceana).

    Yes, I agree with your prognosis, as the ‘Indo-Pacific’ strategy encapsulates the Oceanic thinking behind the formation of AUKUS, in lieu of the earlier QUAD, which has become stillborn due to the lack of common values between the four members of the QUAD — US, Australia, Japan and India. For this reason, I think Japan will be left out of AUKUS as it has nothing in common with the US-led Anglo-Saxon West, with AUKUS fitting neatly into the Civilizational paradigm that I wrote about in my last post. I mean how can Australia be comfortable with a military alliance with Japan which was the nation responsible for committing war crimes against Australians during WWII?

    That choice involves both AUKUS and Japan, hence is “something in common” in the Hobbesian sense of the phrase. Japan may choose to be the Switzerland like neutral within the Oceania coalition, but could not choose that within the EastAsia sphere — it would be like Germans setting up a city government in Israel. I suspect that Japan would choose an AUKUS alliance, if given a choice.

    Not so much Hobbesian, more like avoiding another case of the Thucydides Trap which ignited the First and Second Sino-Japanese Wars. Back then, Imperial Japan was the emerging Power challenging the Qing Dynasty for leadership of East Asia. That’s the rationale behind Imperial Japan’s war drive to create a ‘Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere’ in the Asia-Pacific region.

    But Japan today finds itself emasculated by the US military which is still occupying its territories, albeit mostly in Okinawa, a former Japanese colony. Facing Japan are not one or two but three nuclear-armed States — China, Russia, North Korea — which makes any prospect of Japan getting entangled in any future US-led military alliances to be well-nigh impossible. That’s why the current situation in post-war Japan is best described as a US military occupation rather than a US military alliance. Given the wartime history of the Japanese, their geopolitical fate is one of ‘Finlandization’ which would turn a post-American Japan into a neutral country with zero influence in the geopolitics of East Asia.

    As far as EastAsia (Urals to Atlantic), it is true that Orthodox Civilization has not much in common with Western European civilization. It is also true that, pre-WW I, Western Europe was a primary source of capital and engineering knowledge for Imperial Russia. It is claimed that the rate of Pre-WW I industrial growth in Imperial Russia exceeded that of the USSR, which was backed by engineering and some funds from the US but concentrated only on heavy engineering. Right now, a regression to the Pre-WW I modus vivendi is required by both the Russian Federation (RF), which needs the industrial knowledge of Western Europe, and Western Europe, which badly needs both the resources and (to be blunt) sanity of the Russian Federation.

    Tsarist Russia is long dead, replaced by a highly Sovietized Russia, similar to the ex-Soviet Republics like Belarus, Kazakhstan, etc. The Soviet legacy can be seen in the tech industries that Russia excels in today — Space, Nuclear Energy, Aerospace, Defense — which hardly existed during Tsarist times. Despite the high rates of industrial growth during Tsarist Russia, its nascent industrialization saw rapid growth of the most basic industries — railways, steel, textiles — catching up but trailing behind Western Europe. Only later under Stalin did the USSR turn into a world-class industrial, military and scientific power which is the Soviet legacy to Russia today.

    Russia has a lot more options today as far as its trading partners are concerned. For example, 60% of its weapons exports goes to Asian countries with 30% going to Africa and Latin America. Less than 10% goes to European countries which buys most of its weapons from NATO countries. In nuclear energy, same story with Russia being the number one exporter of nuclear reactors, followed by China. In aerospace, Russia has a JV with China to build a civilian aircraft to compete against Airbus and Boeing. In space, Russia has a JV with China to build a lunar base station on the Moon. In defense, Russia has a JV with India to build a fifth-generation jet fighter. In autos, Japanese, South Korean and Chinese automakers have all setup factories in Russia to produce cars for the local market. In telecommunications, Huawei has setup R&D centers in Russia for Computer Science. Ditto for e-commerce as Alibaba has been investing actively in Russia.

    Now Russia wants to build the Northern Sea Route, effectively bypassing the Southern Sea Route. This is a game changer as Russia gets to control the Northern Sea Route from Asia to Europe, thus neutralizing the Indo-Pacific strategy of the US-led AUKUS, which is based on Alfred Mahan’s Sea-Power Doctrine to control the Southern Sea Route. Additionally, Russia already has an all-weather, warm-water seaport in Vladivostok, which could be used as an international gateway to/from Asia and the Pacific, linked to Europe, via the trans-Siberian railway. The Russian Far East could potentially turn into the California of Russia with Vladivostok as its San Francisco.

    Here’s a map of the Northern Sea Route which bypasses the Southern Sea Route, as shown below:

    https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fd51afcc2-61ef-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e?dpr=1&fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=700

    • Thanks: GMC
    • Replies: @Anonymous
  193. @CosmicMythos

    As adherent to the New World Cosmographic Alphabet I have long been fascinated with your choice of screen I.D.’s. My own preference is Tao, rather than Dao, but why squabble over semantics?

    Perhaps you may wish to re-read my message. It was not my position to claim that the Koreans—many of them now being Methodists and Presbyterians, having accepted the Missionary Position—would be the superior to the Chinese in being imbued with the way of the Tao.

    If you read my message carefully you will note that the Korean adhesion is such is that they present Taoist symbology on their very flag. So at this particular point of history we might should agree that in an imagistic and indeed a Taoistic sense, the Korean flag as a symbol far more of the Way than the Red Star over China.

    • Replies: @CosmicMythos
  194. antibeast says:
    @Anonymous

    However, China is quite capable of treating Japan the way it has treated Tibet, or for that matter the way Pres. Biden and his supporters are treating the US: forced population replacement.

    By the way, where did you get the idea that China is forcing population replacement in Tibet and Japan? No such thing exists except in your dreams! What is more likely to happen is for the Woke West to force Japan to accept population replacement by black Africans and brown Asians imported from sub-Saharan Africa and the non-Confucianist parts of Asia, respectively. IF that happens (and this is a big IF), Japan as we know it today would cease to exist as part of the Sinic Confucianist Buddhist Civilization of East Asia.

  195. @Anonymous

    Wikipedia is not a good place for scholarship on the effects of the Plaza Accord on Japanese economy.

    Your views on China are distorted. I see antibeast gave you more facts – so I will let that suffice.

    I don’t even understand where you are getting some of your ideas. What does Russian friction with Japan over Kurils have anything to do with an alliance with Germany??

    Never mind.

  196. antibeast says:
    @showmethereal

    The Cultural Revolution is overhyped in the West. In reality, the PLA was sent to guard, defend and protect all the important cultural sites in China during the most tumultuous phase of the Cultural Revolution. What the Red Guards destroyed were mostly family heirlooms and household treasures as they went out ransacking the homes of ‘counter-revolutionaries’ whom they targeted. They did inflict minor damage to cultural sites, mostly by vandalizing their public facade. For this reason, China is still home to the highest number of UN World Heritage Sites in Asia.

    The breakneck speed of economic development and industrial modernization did more damage to the cultural heritage of China during the 1990s and 2000s, as suburban sprawl replaced ancient villages which were bulldozed to make way for modern cities. But that model of urbanization has since been replaced by a policy promoting cultural preservation and environmental protection from the 2010s onwards after Xi took office in 2012.

    • Replies: @emerging majority
  197. @Old Brown Fool

    China’s problem was that it always became isolationist – not that it tried to rule over others.

    • Replies: @Old Brown Fool
  198. Anonymous[823] • Disclaimer says:
    @antibeast

    The Tibetans themselves are the ones moving from Tibet to the Han cities in search of better lives not the other way around. Also, Japan is facing the prospect of a massive decline in population by 2050 which would affect its viability as a globally competitive industrial powerhouse. Either Japan opens its door to mass immigration or its aging society will not be able to renew itself, affecting its tech-driven economy which will decline precipitously as Japanese companies ‘outsource’ their R&D to other countries. That’s also true for South Korea and Taiwan, both of which have the lowest TFR in the world today.

    Ah. I’ve struck a nerve here. Probable cavity, we’ll take X-rays.
    This is an age of population decline and population replacement. US, (United States of America), EU (European Union), RF (Russian Federation), PRC (People’s Republic of China), Japan, all with grossly sub-replacement populations. Even semi-industrial countries, like the Islamic block, are at sub-replacement.

    Nevertheless, the PRC retains a policy of not letting Han control of territory slip. The PRC has probably headed off a serious insurrection with its Uighur policy, and one could call the PRC’s actions there self defense and forced integration. Not so in Tibet, though: https://www.clovisinstitute.org/tibet/ . The PRC policy in Tibet is most likely doomed, as Han women are not adapted to pregnancy at low partial pressure of oxygen. The fetus just doesn’t get enough oxygen, but I didn’t say it would succeed, only that it exists.

    That’s why the current situation in post-war Japan is best described as a US military occupation rather than a US military alliance. Given the wartime history of the Japanese, their geopolitical fate is one of ‘Finlandization’ which would turn a post-American Japan into a neutral country with zero influence in the geopolitics of East Asia.

    Japan’s Finlandization is one quite possible future. However, consider the US treatment of Korea and Japan and, for that matter, Germany after WW II. The US built both of them up as counterbalances to the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics), despite the direct competition of both with US businesses (which the US was trying to weaken for reasons internal to the US). China itself was built up into a “counterweight” to the USSR, as was Al Qaida.
    You’d think that the US would have forever abjured “counterweights” after the above, which destroyed US autarky and built up two powerful enemies. Nope. During the US Revolutionary War, 1770s, POW (Prisoners of War) taken by the British suffered a 50% mortality, and many more had their health destroyed. This was apparently done to encourage the POWs to enlist in British forces, a policy that produced very few recruits. The result was such lingering bad feeling that (guess what) the US Federal Government in WW I had to mount a special propaganda effort to neutralize the bad feeling.
    Countries don’t have friends, or even memories, they have interests. It’s dance the dance, then the music changes and everybody gets a new partner; whoever dances best gets the prize, and that’s all anybody cares about.

    So it’s quite possible that the US would build up Japan if it found itself playing Oceania in a game with EastAsia and EurAsia. Industrial and technical ability would be at a premium. The emergence of Japan as an active participant in Oceania is at least possible.

    As for the below replacement fertility rate of Japan, well . . . everybody has that problem now. Either it somehow gets solved or industrial civilization becomes one with the Bronze Age Empires of the eastern Mediterranean. I, personally, think it’s because human beings, like other wild animals, don’t breed well in captivity.
    The Roman Empire found itself with the same problem, slaves didn’t breed well and there weren’t any small-holders after the slave plantations undersold them and the wars depopulated them. Descendants of Roman small-holders went in to the demographic sinks of cities and didn’t come out again, and the slaves weren’t having children.
    So the Romans gave slaves new rights, including eventually land of their own to till, their own shelters, and rights to keep money earned. This proved stable and eventually gave rise to the medieval European peasant, who had similar rights when living on a manor.

    Industrial workers don’t have the rights that the late Roman Empire slaves had.

    It is interesting to me that the first industrial society to have and keep a sub-replacement birth rate was the USSR, which took total control of all land and capital in Russia and left the bulk of the population owning pretty much nothing. The US has been tending the same way since the Korean War took out an entire generation of small business owners who had served in WW II and now again in Korea. That trend has become the Great Reset, in which we will own nothing and, because it’s legally required, be happy. Humans, like most wild animals, don’t breed will in captivity.

    Tsarist Russia is long dead, replaced by a highly Sovietized Russia, similar to the ex-Soviet Republics like Belarus, Kazakhstan, etc. The Soviet legacy can be seen in the tech industries that Russia excels in today — Space, Nuclear Energy, Aerospace, Defense — which hardly existed during Tsarist times. Despite the high rates of industrial growth during Tsarist Russia, its nascent industrialization saw rapid growth of the most basic industries — railways, steel, textiles — catching up but trailing behind Western Europe. Only later under Stalin did the USSR turn into a world-class industrial, military and scientific power which is the Soviet legacy to Russia today.

    The RF has about the economic GDP of Italy, and isn’t going to improve as long as it has to support an immense military establishment. Lenin and Stalin built an industrial base to support of an army, one that later proved impossible for the USSR to convert so as to support a civil society. That’s why the Russians reorganized the USSR into the RF. If trends under Tsarist Russia had continued, the RF would be much more populous and have a much higher GDP (Gross Domestic Product) than it does. The RF would like to convert that “if” into “is”.

    But Russia is adjacent to Europe, and the RF apparently believes that NATO is a security threat. Putin’s actions and words make little sense unless the RF believes that NATO is a security threat, and so great a threat that the RF believes its existence is threatened. One obvious way to neutralize this security threat is an alliance with Germany, which would eventually include the entire EU. There are some signs that Germany wants such an alliance, and that it would be commercially valuable to both the EU and the RF. That the RF sells worldwide is hardly important in this context. It could continue to do so in the new organization, if Eurasia, EastAsia, and Oceania, wanted it so.
    Hence, an RF preference for an alliance with Western Europe. IMHO, of course. Even I recognize the worlds of the great authority Kay Serah: “The Future’s Not Ours to See”.

    From your graphic, the Northern Sea Route appears to be open only during August and September. Granted that it will be an economic asset to the RF, the route can’t support the year-round traffic needed for global trade as it now exists. The military bases shown, however, should be able to prevent encroachment by an Oceania or EastAsia sort of country.

    • Replies: @antibeast
    , @antibeast
  199. @antibeast

    What impresses me about China’s volte face in their redevelopment mania is that along their ultra high-speed railroad corridors between and among their major cities; they have come up with what they call a “string of pearls” strategy along those transportation conduits.

    The pearls will be cities in the 30,000 range which will serve as service and market hubs for rural areas surrounding them. Socrates famously remarked some 2,500 years ago that the largest size a city could grow without endangering civic pride and harmony would be in that 30K range. At this stage these micro-metros will serve as somewhat of an experimental template.

    Should their experiences play out within the purview of Plato’s attribution to the thoughts of his mentor; they might conclude that this development may pave the way for all future planning regimes.

    With lesson #2 we might expect that as that nation’s reproduction replacement rate has subsided considerably, that they may embrace the ancient African proverb that it takes a village to raise a child. That could eventuate in Neo-village Chinese will employ “modern” ag methods for large-scale crops such as rice, millet, wheat and corn/maize, while “going Amish” in production of vegetables, fruits, nuts, hogs, chickens and ducks, as many hands make light work.

    This template may then be adopted by the more astute of Western cultures, where essentially childless modest sized cities will function in those areas at which cities excel. Smaller market towns will serve to educate youngsters in secondary education and will also favor restoration of craft-work, particularly along traditional lines. These market towns would be in the 1,200 to 3,000 demographic range.

    Should these strategies prevail in China and elsewhere, the megalopolitan phase will gradually be phased out, mainly so that real-estate and cultural investments may amortize over time.

  200. antibeast says:
    @Anonymous

    Nevertheless, the PRC retains a policy of not letting Han control of territory slip. The PRC has probably headed off a serious insurrection with its Uighur policy, and one could call the PRC’s actions there self defense and forced integration. Not so in Tibet, though: https://www.clovisinstitute.org/tibet/ . The PRC policy in Tibet is most likely doomed, as Han women are not adapted to pregnancy at low partial pressure of oxygen. The fetus just doesn’t get enough oxygen, but I didn’t say it would succeed, only that it exists.

    That website looks like a hack. This one is better:

    My research on the census data shows two opposing trends at play: First, the Han Chinese population share in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) is increasing, but from a small base and remaining a small minority. More specifically, this increase is concentrated in Lhasa and several militarized prefectures involved in ongoing border conflicts with India. Second, the Han population share is decreasing or remaining stable in Tibetan areas outside the TAR, which account for about half of the Tibetan population in China. In these areas, declining Han shares are characterized by Han depopulation, that is, falling numbers of Han people due to strong outmigration.

    There is no question Beijing has encouraged Han people to migrate to Tibetan areas. However, the government presents this as a matter of assisting local development by rectifying what it perceives as insufficient local human resources to enact development plans, particularly given the tendency for skilled labor to migrate out of these regions—a problem that is endemic in remote rural regions around the world. Beijing also claims to have supported the development of local culture rather than eradicating it.

    This narrative does not necessarily exonerate the government of the possibility of covert strategies of swamping that it might pursue under the cover of its propaganda. Still, previous attempts at orchestrating large-scale Han in-migration in the 1950s and 1960s generally failed in Tibetan areas, and at the beginning of the reform period in the 1980s many Han, especially cadres and skilled workers, left the region as restrictions on population mobility loosened for the first time in decades. Hence, it was only with the resuscitation of western development strategies from the 1990s onwards that the prospect of net Han in-migration returned, especially with the successive intensification of these strategies in the 2000s and 2010s.

    Such Han migration to the TAR has been bolstered by massive economic subsidies from the central government, which exceeded 100 percent of the TAR GDP from 2010 onwards. These encourage migration indirectly through the economic opportunities that they generate for those who can access these opportunities, which are prejudiced in favor of migrants with Chinese fluency and related attributes. However, the prevailing tendency in the less intensively subsidized Tibetan areas outside of the TAR appears to be outmigration rather than in-migration. This outmigration is stronger among Han than among Tibetans, and higher birth rates among Tibetans also compensate for their own emigration. The government might have the intention to reverse this (we can only speculate), but regardless, such structural tendencies are often out of its control, as they are elsewhere in the world.

    https://www.chinafile.com/reporting-opinion/viewpoint/how-much-does-beijing-control-ethnic-makeup-of-tibet

    The problem for Tibet in the past was underdevelopment which forced Tibetans and Hans alike to migrate to other parts of China. The last two decades have seen an influx of Hans working Tibetan in development projects subsidized by the State, which was intended not to displace the Tibetans but to provide them with a higher standard of living, thereby reducing outmigration from Tibet.

    So it’s quite possible that the US would build up Japan if it found itself playing Oceania in a game with EastAsia and EurAsia. Industrial and technical ability would be at a premium. The emergence of Japan as an active participant in Oceania is at least possible.

    Japan is already built-up, with help from the USA during the Cold War, but effectively ‘handicapped’ by the Plaza Accords and other deals forced upon the Japanese by the Yanks to prevent them from overtaking the US economy.

    US politicians love to bash China as their favorite bogeyman responsible for destroying US manufacturing industries. But the reality is that US allies such as Japan, Germany, EU, Canada, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, etc., exploited the open US market which decimated much of US manufacturing industries.

    With the rise of Trumpism in the USA which is hostile to foreign trade and investment, I don’t see the Yanks reverting back to the Cold War policy of handing out economic concessions to US allies including Japan which was responsible for decimating much of the US auto, electronics, semiconductor, machine tools and other industries.

    If Trumpism wins in the USA, a return to pre-war autarky is possible with protectionist policies designed to limit foreign trade and investment. The 2024 Presidential Elections is going to decide the fate of the globalist policies which have hallowed out US industrial base since the 1960s.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  201. antibeast says:
    @Anonymous

    The RF has about the economic GDP of Italy, and isn’t going to improve as long as it has to support an immense military establishment. Lenin and Stalin built an industrial base to support of an army, one that later proved impossible for the USSR to convert so as to support a civil society. That’s why the Russians reorganized the USSR into the RF. If trends under Tsarist Russia had continued, the RF would be much more populous and have a much higher GDP (Gross Domestic Product) than it does. The RF would like to convert that “if” into “is”.

    Russia has a world-class STEM workforce which can be redeployed from defense to civilian sectors such as biotech, semiconductor, aerospace, space, energy, AI, etc. That’s how California’s Silicon Valley came into being with Pentagon-funded or NASA R&D projects in Internet, AI, wireless, computing, semiconductor, aerospace, space and other technologies.

    The problem with the low TFR could be alleviated by pro-natal policies. To this end, Putin now wants to promote ‘traditional values’ based on family and faith, which could lead to a revival of the Russian birth rate and reverse the decline in the Slavic population of Russia.

    The rest of your post about Germany ignores the Elephant in the room which is the US-led NATO. Of course, Germany wants closer and cordial relations with Russia which supplies much of its energy needs. But without NATO, the USA will cease to be an Empire in Europe. That is why the Yanks are never going to allow any rapprochement between Germany and Russia, as proven by the ongoing US sabotage of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

    But Russia could turn to Asia as a destination market for its weapons, energy and agricultural exports. And if Russia succeeds in creating its own civilian high-tech industries, that would add more diversity to its industrial base which is too dependent on its defense sector today. Russia could also position Vladivostok as its international gateway to Asia and the Pacific, effectively turning the trans-Siberian railway into a pan-Eurasian trade route.

    Lastly, the Northern Sea Route does need icebreakers to allow cargo ships to transit through polar ice. To this end, Russia has deployed nuclear-powered icebreakers in the region:

    https://www.arctictoday.com/the-worlds-most-powerful-icebreaker-makes-its-first-voyage-along-the-eastern-northern-sea-route/?wallit_nosession=1

    I am not as pessimistic as Westerners are on Russia’s future prospects. Right next door to Russia is Asia which will account for half of the world’s GDP by 2050. The West is no longer the only game in town anymore as East Asia has achieved global leadership in infrastructure, manufacturing and technology industries. East Asia still lags behind the West in traditional service industries such as fashion, finance and marketing but is now leading the world in emerging tech-driven service industries such as fintech, e-commerce and mobile internet.

    • Agree: annamaria
  202. @emerging majority

    So at this particular point of history we might should agree that in an imagistic and indeed a Taoistic sense, the Korean flag as a symbol far more of the Way than the Red Star over

    China.

    Forgive me if I make certain assumptions regarding your core meaning.

    I think I may grasp some of what you are saying when you use “imagistic” together with “Taoistic”.

    Indeed, the Dao/Tao encompasses the inner-spiritual as well as the outer-material (and you might agree the proportions of these ebb and flow with the universe’s cycles), and inasmuch as imagery goes more directly to the unconscious (and powerful imagery goes yet more directly to the Collective Unconscious), then yes, when South Koreans look at their flag, it probably does trigger an awareness of the harmony. Images are sub/unconscious communication. In this, do disagreement.

    But, pull back. Get the perspective of some historical distance. The Dao/Tao, seems to direct people to be in harmony with the flow of Reality/the “universe”, and for us mere finite beings (otherwise known as “humans”), the flow of human history.

    Put more simply, as a question, “What must be done in light of present actual reality, and going forward for some time”.

    The Chinese probably chose their flag due to the harmonious NEED/ADVANTAGE to focus their energies and national spirit into material development at the time of their republic’s founding (1949, the beginning of the Western imperial downsizing).

    After their centurie(s) of humiliation, they had found it DISharmonious to neglect the material world – the physical, scientific, technological, economic and yes military aspects of . . . well, Reality itself. And so, they aligned themselves with what seemed to be the historical demands of their epoch, “Socialism with Chinese characteristics”.

    It’s forever a fascinating balancing act with China. Overemphasize one or the other aspect of Reality, and it bites you in the ass. Your society undergoes great suffering and distress. The Chinese lived this in the last 200 years. Be in harmony with the universe, or see your civilization die out, permanently. (There are very disturbing signs in ours in the West, you may concur?)

    I find it interesting that the Chinese, (and the Koreans as well) are very open, without any fetishizing (this must be emphasized), to ideas/influences from all corners of the globe, to include (from their perspective) the Far South West (Africa) and Far South East (South America), as well as the usual India, West Asia, Russia and Europe/North America.

    To them, these places are not “fashionable”, but worthwhile sources of wisdom, learning, and meaning. An excellent perspective.

  203. Thank you for your well considered response as well as sharing your insights into a perceived need by the Chinese to strengthen what I presume to be the left-hemisphere logical, rational. analytical, more materialistic aspect of their culture. Though I may not be in full agreement with the assessment, it appears to be theoretically valid for further study and contemplation.

    As somewhat a student of the concept of higher harmonics extending into geopolitical realities (that realm being currently and massively dominated by the left-brain narrative.) After having recently read the late Dr. Leonard Shlain’s “The Alphabet Versus the Goddess” and additionally his “The Brain of Leonardo”; my primary takeaway dimensionally broadened my own theoretical explorations of the totally abstract quality of those alphabets which made for an easily learned and mastered literacy of those simplified signifiers of human speech.

    As Shlain expostulates, those abstracted formulations were fundamental to the development of the three Abrahamic organized religions. In the processes of their expanding hegemonies, those religions and the mindsets which were implicit within them constituted a revolution by that leftbrain dominance which overthrew both the ancient Mother Goddess religions/traditions as well as nature-centered practices of all indigenous peoples right across the Western half of the planet.

    In vivid contradistinction to the East, the Westernizing world devolved deeper and deeper into conceptualizing reality with only half a brain/half a mind. Existential conflicts and destruction, based on that which I call “Idiotologies”, engendered turmoil and chaos within Western mindsets.

    Though not utterly without value in terms of mechanical and technological progress in many fields; these mindsets have led us to the very lip of the abyss, in large part due to these spiritually hollow, half-minded perspectives. T.S. Eliot, William Butler Yeats and numerous other deeply-delving thinkers of approximately 100 years ago, began sounding the alarms.

    How to escape from this conundrum? As Dr. Shlain pointedly signaled ,the underlying cultural misbalancing inculcated by a totally abstract alphabet, one which utterly decried and degraded the contributions of our right brain’s holistic and integrative approach (essentially the Tao); would not the corrective antithesis formulate a foundation by means of a process of Trans-Abstract Realism within the arts and graphics, developing a harmonizing corpus calosum empowerment of those two bifurcations of the brain by means of a symbol-based transliteration/transmutation of the easily learned contemporary Latin-based alphabet into imagistic form? Thus each letter would transmute into a universalist symbol through which the Twain shall meet.

    As you propound, perhaps the East, China in particular, has restructured its culture by embracing more thoroughly the left side of the Tao; would it not be apposite that the West might achieve evolutionary realization by reactivating its long denied, decried and degraded right hemisphere by means of adopting a trans-abstract alphabet, which would harmoniously meld the two polarities into an integrated and holistic singularity?

    I eagerly await your well-considered response.

    • Replies: @CosmicMythos
  204. antibeast says:
    @emerging majority

    One small pick: A quick peek at the flag of South Korea will suggest that at least within Korean cultural development; that nation is not so much of the Confucian organizational set, as it is Taoistic. Taoism and Confucianism have long vied for the adherence of East Asian civilization. As a practitioner, though hardly an adept of the I-Ching; I consider that tradition to be more holistically connective than the rationalist, analytical, scientistic mindset which conforms well to Confucianism.

    Taoism came to Korea during the Silla Dynasty which became its founding State ruling over the entire Korean Peninsula, after the conquest of Baekje and Goguryeo Dynasties in the 7th century CE. Buddhism arrived later and became dominant during the Goryeo Dynasty which succeeded the Late Silla Dynasty. But the Goryeo Dynasty was succeeded by the Joseon Dynasty which suppressed Buddhism in favor of Song Neo-Confucianism.

    Unlike the ‘social humanism’ of the Han Confucianists, the ‘rationalist, analytical, scientific’ mindset came from the Song Neo-Confucianists who rejected the ‘mystical, other-worldly, ascetic’ mindset of the Taoists and Buddhists. That’s why the Song Dynasty is widely regarded as the progenitor of China’s first proto-Scientific Revolution based on Zhu Xi’s ‘Investigation of Things’ which formed the basis for the empirical rationalism of Song Neo-Confucianism, antedating the rationalism of Rene Descartes and the empiricism of Francis Bacon by more than 500 years! The world’s first proto-Industrial Revolution also took place during the Song Dynasty predating the Industrial Revolution of England by 800 years!

    It is my belief, based upon no research data whatsoever, that the more measured and balanced minds in the East look to sages who happen to be adepts in I-Ching divination and its attendant sense of harmonious balance. As for China itself, consider two elements: The system of governance via meritocracy and the exquisite concept of the Celestial Kingdom.

    Taoism, which is the indigenous religion of the Han Chinese, evolved out of the pre-Taoist animism of the Hua-Xia peoples. That’s why the cosmology of Taoism involves the ‘Spirit in Nature’ as the Tao of the Universe. Shintoism, which is the indigenous religion of the Japanese, was still animist until its transformation into an organized State religion during the Meiji Restoration when Emperor-worship was incorporated as the central tenet of State Shinto. However, folk Shinto never lost its place in Japan where its animist beliefs are still practiced by the Japanese to this day.

    The Mongols and Manchus who ruled China during the Yuan and Qing Dynasties respectively were originally Shamanistic but had adopted Tibetan Buddhism which they imposed as the official Court Religion of China. The medieval mysticism of Tibetan Buddhism then spread throughout China, displacing the empirical rationalism of the Song and Ming Neo-Confucianists.

    While the Manchu Qing later became patrons of Classical Chinese Culture, they retained their indigenous Shamanistic religion which fused with the medieval mysticism of Tibetan Buddhism. As a Tungusic people, the Manchus did not understand nor adopt the ‘rationalist, analytical, scientific’ mindset of the Song/Ming Neo-Confucianists which explains why the Manchus opposed and obstructed any and all attempts by their Han officials to modernize China and industrialize its economy. This Manchu Obscurantism impeded the development of Science and Technology as well as the growth of Commerce and Industry in Qing China, while the West was undergoing its Scientific and Industrial Revolutions during the 17th and 18th centuries, respectively.

    THAT was the reason why China fell behind the West.

    • Thanks: annamaria
  205. @showmethereal

    True, but may not be this time; historical China was autarky, and rarely imported anything in bulk; but the present day China consumes raw material from the rest of the world. When a country depends on foreign raw material for something essential, it will be dragged into foreign politics. This time, China will definitely have a say in the rest of the world.

  206. @annamaria

    All that is true, but after the expeditions of Zheng He, China lost interest in maritime power (and paid dearly for it); this time, China is more integrated with the rest of the world than ever in the past. Therefore, sooner than later, even if it tries to be isolationist, China will be dragged into the internal politics of other countries.

    • Replies: @annamaria
  207. Anonymous[794] • Disclaimer says:
    @antibeast

    Nice research on Tibet. You’ve dug out detail that I wasn’t aware of — the place isn’t of primary interest to me, and I just follow general trends there. So let’s just stipulate your findings as true for sake of discussion.

    The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has, you point out, made several episodic attempts to increase Han population in Tibet. Han can’t live there comfortably, too low a partial pressure of oxygen. Han women have trouble with pregnancy in high Tibet. Tibetans and Peruvian Inca descendants both have successful physiological adaptations to high altitude life, although the physiological adaptations are different. Han attempts at displacing native populations are unlikely to succeed in the long run. They amount to convincing a civil population that they should live in Hell and have sick children. Hard sell, although at one time northern China did have similar troubles with south China — administrators sent South tended to die of local diseases. Fortunately, northern China had many replacement administrators, rather like the UK and India.
    But the PRC, while persevering, is plainly still trying. I take anything said by a government as attempted deception. “Communication is anything that changes the behavior of the intended recipient”, such as “sending a message” to North Vietnam by bombing it, or “eliminating misinformation” by deleting Twitter accounts. Disregarding PRC statements about its own motives, I’m left with another attempt to introduce Han population into Tibet.

    So let’s take the hypothetical population of Japan by a hypothetical EastAsia. I have seen many posts about the assessment of Japan by continental Sinic civilization. The attitude appears to be that Japan is a persistent threat that has at times caused severe material loss and casualties throughout the Sinic region. The PRC has a utilitarian and long range goal of minimizing persistent threats. For example, PRC is neutralizing an attempted Uigher asymmetric war right now, where a Western government would take no action. PRC also claims that it will invade Taiwan, and the threat here appears to be little more than the survival of a Han population that rules itself without authoritarian government and maintains pre-1900 Chinese society.
    Should the PRC morph into EastAsia, and somehow gain control of Japan, one response to the persistent threat would be to displace Japanese society by displacing the indigenous population itselff, which (as you point out) has been attempted in Tibet. Actually, accomplishing that would take little more than continuing present US policy and eventually introducing a Han replacement population.

    Japan is already built-up, with help from the USA during the Cold War, but effectively ‘handicapped’ by the Plaza Accords and other deals forced upon the Japanese by the Yanks to prevent them from overtaking the US economy.

    Let’s say that you are correct about the Plaza Accords. The US at the time had the USSR stopped; the US was in no serious danger. That was back then. Now, things are different, and will continue to be so.

    The US (United States) has pulled out of central Asia and is in process of leaving the rest of Asia, including Korea and Western Europe (which is in Asia in the sense of being part of the same continental mass). Asia has been made untenable by Bush’s attempt at integrating Iraq and Afghanistan (Graveyard of Empires once again) into the “liberal world order” of Fukyama’s End of History. The US is destabilized (https://www.takimag.com/article/hollywoods-jews-get-their-wandering-papers/ , https://thesideview.co/journal/why-civilizations-collapse/) and most likely about to see a severe financial crisis. Moreover, the European allies have had about enough of destroying themselves at the behest of the US US occupation forces.
    National interests say that Germany will ally with the Russian Federation, and pull most or all of Western Europe with them. Germany is too small to survive on its own, and has few natural resources. Russia is too small for the military capabilities it is supporting. Obvious step is for the Russian Federation to eliminate its security problem to its West by accepting Germany as an ally. Germany gets resources and a new scope for its industrialists. Presto: EurAsia is formed. The US doesn’t veto, as a Eurasia forms a counter to the EastAsia, and the US needs a counter. As an Ocianic power, the US needs to play Continental powers off against each other — hard to do if there is only one Continental power.

    However- An Oceanic power needs a Navy. The US sort of has one, but it is getting obsolescent and as Oceania it will need more. Japan is currently building up a Navy, and the US will accept this (actually, is accepting this) out of dire necessity.

    US politicians love to bash China as their favorite bogeyman responsible for destroying US manufacturing industries. But the reality is that US allies such as Japan, Germany, EU, Canada, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, etc., exploited the open US market which decimated much of US manufacturing industries.

    Well, as a very long term US resident, the same facts look different to me. I’d say that US industries were deliberately destroyed. Remember, the Republicans used to be the party of corporations. The Democrats simply destroyed the Republican power base. The Republican party went so fare recently as to sever ties with the corporate sector, which has become populated by zombie corporations and is now effectively Democrat (https://thehill.com/policy/finance/532573-manufacturing-trade-group-condemns-gop-push-to-overturn-biden-victory) .
    Trump doesn’t want to end foreign trade, but rather to stop the destruction of US corporations. He has a hard task there, as most of the US corporations are hollow shells (https://thesideview.co/journal/why-civilizations-collapse/). In fact, as Oceania, the AUKUS countries will have to establish autarky — the Oceania/EastAsia/Eurasia tripod assumes economic warfare between its segments, each of which are autarkic. Trump, or somebody, has to re-make US business structures, and can’t fall back on the command economy method as a command economy would not support an adequate Navy.

    There are many vital things that neither of us has so far discussed:
    * Sub-replacement fertility in all industrialized nations.
    * Resource scarcity.
    * Failure of both “world trade” and “command economies”, leaving no practicable model.
    * Effect of radical restructuring in at least Oceania and Eurasia, and probably EastAsia as well. Part of this effect will be a sharp drop in efficiency, and feeding the world is a close run thing as it is (US nitrogen based fertilizer costs have doubled in 2022, so farming corn [maize] is uneconomic in the Midwest).
    * Failure of all political models. As a US resident, I can say that capture of the Federal government by “political machines” was not supposed to happen, and marks failure of both the Constitutional model of balanced power. The utter incompetence with which the COVID affair has been handled marks failure of this machine dominance.
    Similarly, the PRC’s malinvestment over the past decade marks the failure of centralized political power and a more or less free economy (Mussolini’s solution).
    Political theory? All gone, ain’t nothin’ left.

    So this transition is going to be quite a ride. Might take 30 years, might (as it did in the Late Bronze Age) take forever.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  208. DNA999 says:
    @Dystopian

    Ahem, Doingthejew’\$ Biding is \$Tring-Theory, near-live on air. Either that or his mind-o’-their own vampire fangs migrated down to his inner wrist to make ‘Bloodstrike’ upon each and every handshake. Shake, strike, Nanobots go in, wait, new customer/donater for life.
    Without his clothes, he’s just a ball o’ yarn, in line with the ‘tangled web we weave’ style fabrication of TV theatrical theories.

  209. antibeast says:
    @Anonymous

    Thanks for your elucidating reply which makes me think you’re viewing things from two competing theories of geopolitics, namely: Mahan’s doctrine of sea power vs Mckinder’s heartland theory of Eurasia.

    In my last posts, I was merely stating facts without making any judgment based on any theory of geopolitics.

    Japan, for example, is suffering from a long-term demographic crisis which would preclude it from having the economic means to serve as a geopolitical tool of the US-led AUKUS, not including its historical baggage as an imperialist aggressor during WWII. The combined weight of its economic and historical liabilities implies that the only viable option for a post-American Japan is some kind of ‘Finlandization’, that is geopolitical neutrality, with its national security guaranteed by both China and Russia.

    As for China, I think you misread my last posts. If you had read the entire article linked in that post, it says that half of the Tibetan population live outside of Tibet, due to outmigration to nearby provinces. That’s also the reason why past attempts to settle Tibet with Hans had failed, as noted in the article. The recent influx of Hans is mostly work-related which debunks the alleged Chinese attempt to swamp Tibet with Hans.

    Beyond these two points of fact, I can’t say for sure if your prognosis is based on any factual analysis of the geopolitics of East Asia. You mentioned Germany + Russia = Eurasia as a potential counterweight to China without even acknowledging the role of Japan as a US counterweight to both China and Russia. You also seem oblivious to the plight of Germany as a US military colony which formed the basis for the US-led NATO in Europe during the Cold War. How can Germany form an alliance with Russia if the USA would not allow the Germans to buy natural gas from Russia? What more for the USA to allow Germany to buy weapons from or form an alliance with Russia? Besides, China has had an excellent relationship with Germany dating back to Chiang’s Republican era which has lasted to this day while Russia has had a tortured relationship with Germany, dating back to WWI, WWII and the Cold War.

    Lastly, China is now in the process of integrating the whole of Asia, not just East Asia, with the BRI, RCEP, AIIB, SCO, etc. Japan has been doing the same with the ADB while ASEAN is doing the same with Southeast Asia. Russia too has its own Eurasian initiatives such as the CSTO, EAEU, GEP, etc. The recent intervention of the CSTO, which is the Russian-version of NATO, in Kazakhstan highlights the strategic role of Russia as a Eurasian Power which complements China as an East Asian Power. In other words, Russia covers China’s back in Eurasia while China covers Russia’s back in East Asia. Remember that Japan fought four wars against Russia/USSR and claims the Russian-occupied Kuril Islands to this day. As a host to US military bases, Japan serves as the strategic linchpin of the US Empire in East Asia. Meanwhile, the Russian military maintains a naval base in Vladivostok which sits at the mouth of the Sea of Japan, directly facing the US Seventh Fleet. Here’s Putin explaining to Abe why Russia is at not liberty to sign a peace treaty with Japan due to the latter’s ties with the US military.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  210. Anonymous[146] • Disclaimer says:
    @antibeast

    Ah. It seems we’re getting closer to a synthesis. or at least a definition of overlapping domains.

    (note — I’m adding URLs of information you already know for benefit of other readers. No slight is intended towards you.)

    You are looking at current diplomatic and potentially military initiatives that are undeniably taking place. I’m trying to look at things from straight long horizon geopolitics. The two approaches give differing results, both of which might yield a verifiable prediction on its own time scale.

    For what it’s worth, my specialty is engineering systems analysis, and I’ve had some good results with that, getting realized predictions from very little information about the systems involved. One of the better ones has been the decline of the cities — once you consider the cities’ vanished natural monopolies and the migration from countryside to city, it becomes obvious that cities would first dominate (but slowly decay) by using population power to support themselves politically, then sharply decay when cumulative urban infrastructure decay destroyed their political support by forcing political elites out of the cities. That one got me out of urban dominated states while it was still relatively easy to move.

    This EurAsia/EastAsia/Oceania is about as obvious now as the urban decay arc was a decade ago. The original idea of unsustainable political power comes from Copley’s Uncivilization, and as it happens I’ve studied the areas that used to be urban natural monopolies, even used to work in the Garment District of New York, back when there was one.

    So I’m throwing the “reversion to three zones of power” or EastAsia/EurAsia/Oceania idea out, together with the point that Germany’s has recently departed from US policy (https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2022/01/24/sasse-germany-has-de-facto-exited-nato/) and is really upset about the US Green mandate that is shutting off nuclear power and simultaneously refusing natural gas from the CIS, and the AUKUS alliance, and the US Afghanistan fiasco.
    Will it happen? I work in probabilities, and I maintain that such a tripartite division seems a lot much likely than it did a decade ago (when it really seemed a very very remote possibility). It is something to watch, and perhaps bet on if the odds are right. Rather like Bitcoin after 1 share of Bitcoin reached the price of 1 oz. of gold and then declined sharply, but did not fall to zero. The need is there, and the systems to attain it are almost in place.

    The recent intervention of the CSTO, which is the Russian-version of NATO, in Kazakhstan highlights the strategic role of Russia as a Eurasian Power which complements China as an East Asian Power. In other words, Russia covers China’s back in Eurasia while China covers Russia’s back in East Asia.

    The above quote is the sort of thing I’m talking about. Russia covers China’s back in Eurasia while China covers Russia’s back in East Asia is the way things start. In the long term, simple administrative convenience says China takes EurAsia, and Russian/Germany takes EurAsia. The US doesn’t want to become Oceania (the present government is incapable of executing an Oceanic strategy), but will be forced into it by the sheer inability of the two Asian powers to build a fleet capable of invading Oceania. While either one alone could build such a fleet, the two together form a “crabs in a bucket” situation (https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Crabs%20in%20a%20Bucket) — if one seems to be building up such a fleet, the other will counter with land initiatives that destroy the other’s Navy budget.

    Historical example: during the American Revolution (late 1700s) the French tried building up their Navy. The succeeded in saving the American Revolution, but drove France to bankruptcy. The UK didn’t have to support large armies on its borders in addition to a Navy, and so could have a Navy that France could not support, and also have money to spend supporting French continental rivals, thus ensuring that France could not equal the UK’s Navy.

    So that’s my description of the entire method of thought — look for dominant properties of the system, then predict system behavior. It’s rather like predicting that a “double your bet if you lose” rule guarantees early success and eventual bankruptcy. Again, the classical bit of wisdom in searching for equilibria is expressed in Aesop: http://read.gov/aesop/143.html

    Your methodology of looking at what governments are actually trying to doo, on the other hand, is much better for short and medium term predictions. Perhaps a fusion would prevent surprises from discontinuous system behavior (https://thesideview.co/journal/why-civilizations-collapse/), but unfortunately they are both full time jobs.

    For me, I can say that the transformation will take somewhere between 1 and 3 decades (30 years war level reorganization), possibly longer (if mixed with a climate or other natural but unfavorable change occurs), and possibly won’t be completed (if a new energy source such as Thorium isn’t developed quickly and the industrialized world becomes physically unsustainable). Not a very precise prediction, I’ll admit.

    Hope this has been useful.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  211. Biff K says:
    @Mikhail

    News to American high school graduates from WASP enclaves who know ZERO about that “over there” place. You know more than most, but too generic.

    Do us all a favor, babe. Stick to Goethe.

  212. Anon[157] • Disclaimer says:
    @antibeast

    Only a demented chinese nationalist could portray the bloody conquest by barbarous warlords of the asian plain that gave rise to the nation of china swalowing one tribe after another where slavery and indebted serviture were widespread since the most remote dinasties as some peacefull fairytail .

    The difference is that the steep and montainous geografy of europe make the meditarranean the easier route for conquest and unification the same way the asian plain did it for the earlier chinese warlords that formed the chinese nation , a little detail the conquest of the souther mediterranean was preceded by the cartaginian expansion in italy and spain ,a war that we didnt start but a one we finished

    • Replies: @antibeast
  213. antibeast says:
    @Anonymous

    You are looking at current diplomatic and potentially military initiatives that are undeniably taking place. I’m trying to look at things from straight long horizon geopolitics. The two approaches give differing results, both of which might yield a verifiable prediction on its own time scale.

    That’s called realpolitik which is a realist doctrine of geopolitics.

    For what it’s worth, my specialty is engineering systems analysis, and I’ve had some good results with that, getting realized predictions from very little information about the systems involved.

    I see now where you’re coming from — a systems-theoretic worldview — which is ahistorical by definition. You’re obviously forming your hypothetical projections not based on a historical analysis of geopolitics but based on abstract models from a systems-engineering standpoint.

    This EurAsia/EastAsia/Oceania is about as obvious now as the urban decay arc was a decade ago. The original idea of unsustainable political power comes from Copley’s Uncivilization, and as it happens I’ve studied the areas that used to be urban natural monopolies, even used to work in the Garment District of New York, back when there was one.

    I haven’t heard of Copley but your tripartite division of the world into three competing blocs (EurAsia/EastAsia/Oceania) is not new as it was first conceptualized by George Orwell’s 1984 novel, as shown in the map below:

    I find this tripartite model of three competing blocs (EurAsia/EastAsia/Oceania) to be problematic because it ignores the ethno-linguistic, cultural, ideological and historical differences between the nations within each bloc.

    By way of comparison, Samuel Huntington’s ‘Clash of Civilizations’ posits the ‘Civilizational Paradigm’ in the making of a New World Order after the end of the Cold War. Here’s how Huntington view the world based on his ‘Civilizational Paradigm’:

    While I don’t agree with some of his generalizations such as his prognosis that inter-Civilizational Clashes are inevitable, his theory of the ‘Clash of Civilizations’ has become true in the USA. The massive influx of Latino illegals and Indian workers has given rise to Trumpism which is a manifestation of an extra-Civilizational Clash. The ‘Clash of Civilizations’ can also be intra-Civilizational as seen in the sectarian conflict between Saudi Wahhabism and Iranian Shiism. History has shown that inter-Civilizational Clashes are rare while intra- or extra-Civilizational Clashes are quite common.

    The above quote is the sort of thing I’m talking about. Russia covers China’s back in Eurasia while China covers Russia’s back in East Asia is the way things start. In the long term, simple administrative convenience says China takes EurAsia, and Russian/Germany takes EurAsia. The US doesn’t want to become Oceania (the present government is incapable of executing an Oceanic strategy), but will be forced into it by the sheer inability of the two Asian powers to build a fleet capable of invading Oceania.

    The US-led Woke West, with its ‘perpetual wars’, is eerily similar to ‘Oceana’ today, complete with its own ‘Ministry of Truth’ and its use of ‘doublespeak’, constant surveillance by Big Tech which has the power to instantly ‘deplatform’ any dissident guilty of ‘thoughtcrime’ into becoming ‘unpersons’.

    As for ‘Eurasia’, I need not repeat what I’ve written in my previous posts but suffice it to say that China’s vision of ‘Eurasia’, as exemplified by the BRI, is complementary to Russia’s version, as exemplified by the CSTO, as the former seeks economic relationships while the latter seeks geopolitical allies, both in Asia and Europe.

    Both China and Russia have been building their own ‘Blue Water Navies’, albeit for different ends: for the economic purpose of securing its maritime trade routes in China’s case and for the strategic mission of projecting its military power in Russia’s case. As far as national security is concerned, China only has to worry about Japan while Russia has to worry about both Japan and the US-led NATO.

    So that’s my description of the entire method of thought — look for dominant properties of the system, then predict system behavior. It’s rather like predicting that a “double your bet if you lose” rule guarantees early success and eventual bankruptcy.

    Your methodology of looking at what governments are actually trying to do, on the other hand, is much better for short and medium term predictions. Perhaps a fusion would prevent surprises from discontinuous system behavior.

    Your approach reminds me of Robert McNamara who relied on ‘systems analysis’ and ‘body counts’ to measure the effectiveness of his military campaigns during the Vietnam War. But McNamara failed miserably for which his quantitative methodology is now known as the ‘McNamara fallacy’. Geopolitics is not an objective science, which makes it difficult to model mathematically, unlike the dismal science of economics. So I would treat all that crap with a grain of salt.

    For me, I can say that the transformation will take somewhere between 1 and 3 decades (30 years war level reorganization), possibly longer (if mixed with a climate or other natural but unfavorable change occurs), and possibly won’t be completed (if a new energy source such as Thorium isn’t developed quickly and the industrialized world becomes physically unsustainable). Not a very precise prediction, I’ll admit.

    Demographics is the single biggest factor that will cause the economic decline of Japan. This is no longer conjecture but an accepted scientific fact derived from various demographic studies on the aging and declining population of Japan. Japan’s world-leading technology-driven manufacturing industries will suffer as its aging workforce declines by attrition while more young workers are shifted to welfare industries to take care of an aging population. Japan’s much-acclaimed consumer industries will suffer as well from a dearth of young consumers as its growing population of the elderly consume less goods and demand more welfare. The econometric models have predicted the deflationary impact of the looming demographic crisis on Japan’s economy, from its industrial and technology sectors to its real-estate and financial sectors.

    That’s the objective prediction while rest of your post is just idle speculation.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  214. Anon[181] • Disclaimer says:
    @mulga mumblebrain

    Isnt it true you repugnant hipocrite?

  215. antibeast says:
    @Anon

    The founding of China was indeed a violent act of military conquest by the Qin Dynasty to politically reunify the Huaxia Kingdoms. But the Qin Dynasty lasted only 15 years until the Han rebellion established the Han Dynasty. That’s when the Han Dynasty adopted Classical Confucianism as its official State ideology, displacing the Qin Legalism of the Qin Dynasty. The Social Humanist philosophy of Classical Humanism led to the abolition of slavery as early as the Han Dynasty!

    Buddhism also entered China during the Han Conquest of Xinjiang which thereafter ‘pacified’ the Han Chinese. This explains why the Chinese Empire never even attempted to expand beyond its core area inhabited by the Han Chinese who were content to keep out the ‘barbarians’. The Tang Reconquest of Xinjiang had the same motive as the Han Conquest which was to secure China’s trade route to Persia via the Silk Road. Only during the rule by two alien Dynasties — Mongol Yuan and Manchu Qing — did the Chinese Empire expand its territories beyond its core Han Chinese area, centered in the Yangtze and Yellow river valleys.

    Outside the Huaxia Kingdoms, the Chinese Empire founded by the Qin Dynasty started building the Great Wall to keep out the non-Huaxia barbarians living in the North. This policy was continued by the Han and all succeeding Dynasties, based on the ‘Hua-Yi’ dichotomy which persisted throughout the Sinic Confucianist-Buddhist Civilization of East Asia, from China, Korea to Japan and Vietnam, for two millennia. Only after the Mongol invasions was this policy breached as large numbers of Mongols, Uyghurs, Tibetans and Semus settled in Yuan China. But those foreign settlers too became ‘Sinicized’ and thus ‘civilized’ over time.

    In contrast, the Romans were motivated by their lust for power and their greed for wealth, invading, conquering and enslaving non-Romans such as the Gauls. Julius Caesar came back from his Conquest of Gaul with a million Gauls as his personal slaves! The Romans tried to invade but failed to conquer the German ‘barbarians’ in the Battle of the Teutoburg Forest. That defeat dissuaded the Roman Imperialists from invading the German ‘barbarians’ again, thus marking the Rhine river as the borderline between the Roman Empire and Germania.

    The Romans not only practiced institutionalized slavery but also enjoyed gladiator matches which was a Roman pastime. To satiate their ‘blood lust’, the Romans built huge Coliseums where they get to watch the bloody spectacle of their slave gladiators fight each other to death or scream their hearts out as Christian prisoners get devoured by carnivorous lions. That was the favorite pastime of the Romans. And it ain’t no football game.

    • Agree: showmethereal
    • Replies: @Anon
  216. Anonymous[146] • Disclaimer says:
    @antibeast

    Your post consists of repeated “I don’t like this” or “I won’t believe this”. OK, fine. Don’t.

  217. Anon[415] • Disclaimer says:
    @antibeast

    All the previous dinasties that prepared the terrain to the formation of the ” modern chinese empire” from shang to the quin the last of ones contemporany with the roman republic practiced widespread slavery among the conquered regions while the peasants masses had not even the right to leave the land owned by aristocrats , the masive amount of slaves produced by the punic wars happened in a similar tiframe in the west too , so not very different really

    Even During the han dinasty slavery was only partially limited instituting laws that prohibited only the posesion of more than 200 slaves for the equivalent of european dukes while other officials were limited to 30 slaves each. An analogous process of pacification was happening in the west too but instead of buddism it was a mix of stoic ethics and christianity the ones who gradually dismantled the moral foundation of slavery , gave every citicen roman citicenship by the year 212 and mantained a non expansive policy with the surrounding trives by the early second century a.c .

    The period that encompass the warrior states quin and the han dinasty look like an eastern mirrored version of rome , the difference only really start to grow after the fall of the western roman empire

    • Replies: @antibeast
  218. antibeast says:
    @Anon

    The Hua-Xia Kingdoms during the Warring States Period were feudalist aristocracies whose landed estates had landless serfs. That’s not exactly chattel slavery which was institutionalized in the Roman Empire and codified into Roman Law. The only time in China’s history where slavery was institutionalized was during the Qin Dynasty when the Imperial State conscripted slave laborers to build the Great Wall and other public works such as canals, roads, dikes, etc. But the Han Dynasty abolished the Qin-era State-conscripted system of slave labor, allowing ‘contractual’ slavery for limited cases, such as Eunuchs serving the Imperial Court or household slaves serving the aristocratic nobility, which is more akin to debt peonage. Other than captured prisoners during wartime or arrested criminals during peacetime, chattel slavery where private citizens can buy, sell or trade slaves in open slave markets did not exist in China, at least not institutionalized by the State nor codified into Law. Not saying that chattel slavery never existed but that they were illegal practices, not sanctioned by the State.

    In contrast, Slavery of White Europeans is a Western tradition, as ancient as Greece and as pervasive as the Roman Empire.

    The Greeks were the first Europeans to practice chattel slavery and made their living off the White slave trade which was a big part of the Greek economy. The Phoenicians were the first Mediterraneans to establish the White slave trade which passed onto the Greeks. That’s how the Romans got the idea of enslaving the Gauls, Bretons, Thracians, Germanics, etc. which drove them to conquer those tribes and establish the Roman Empire.

    The Greeks are known to have invented ‘democracy’ but the reason why they had all those ‘freedoms’ was because they lived off the White Slavery.

    • Replies: @Anon
  219. annamaria says:
    @Old Brown Fool

    At least you honestly use “if”

  220. Anon[301] • Disclaimer says:
    @antibeast

    Around 5% of the population of the han dinasty were slaves capture in war, slave raiding, and the sale of insolvent debtors were all procedures attested by law during the han era , the exact same method that produced the vast mayority of slaves during the romann expansionist era , while around around 10- 15% in roman empire as a whole according to modern estimates so again not so different .

    only once under Emperor Wang Mang in 9 CE was slavery abolished , although it was restored 3 year later when he faced opposition of the aristocracy .
    The inaugural edict of Wang Mang, CE 9, in stating the evils of slavery, claimed the following:

    “””Furthermore, [the Ch’in dynasty] established markets for nu-pei [putting humans into] the same pens with cattle and horses.””””

    Slaves during the han era were sold in the same kind of pens cattle and horses were sold in, , a “certificate of servitude” was drawn up, which included the slave’s name and date of birth. Slave traders had no special name to distinguish them from ordinary merchants, although some did specialize in the sale of “luxury slaves” for aristocracy. The slave market itself was indistinguishable from ordinary markets that sold cattle or utensils.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  221. anonymous[394] • Disclaimer says:

    After Russia and its group annihilates NATO’s chickenshit tank parade in four minutes of hypersonic nonballistic hellfire, they will try the criminals who started the USA’s last war, and last official act.

    Chief among them will be that horny dwarf Bloomberg. They will hang him for the inchoate crime of war propaganda in breach of ICCPR Article 20:

    The sand Nazi’s stubby little legs will scurry and twitch in the icy dawn of Khabarovsk. And the peoples of the UN member nations will cheer as one.

  222. @emerging majority

    @emerging majority

    You have raised quite a lot of pertinent points, and it would ideally lead to (a) free-flowing (and thoroughly satisfying) discussion(s) over many sessions. I will have to share my thoughts in stages, as time and opportunity allow. TLDR: That’s a whole lot to unpack and breakdown.

    I’ll start:

    1) The role of phonetic alphabets, focusing nearly exclusively on speech SOUNDS, as a way of conveying thought AND emotion;
    and the role these alphabets played in the suppression of right-brain/”experienced reality” (as opposed to “objective”) everywhere Abrahamic paradigms took hold
    ?

    There might actually be something to that hypothesis. Definite merit, but it requires MUCH more investigation. Sound, as opposed to vision, are more related in neuro-psychology to the human (and maybe the collective human species’) “Left” or “logical” brain.

    So perhaps the disappearance of pictorial or even conceptual means of communicating and undrestanding reality, had the unintended effect of also overemphasizing the objective and underemphasizing of the subjective.

    We can even see the effects in our own lives today. When something is called “subjective”, it’s subtext is that that is based on something less true, less valid, and not real. Certainly when modern societies discuss anything, “logic” is given far more weight than “experience”.

    There is a growing pushback against this black-OR-white, real-OR-not way of viewing things. I think it comes from an inherent impulse, which is both conscious and instinctive, to re-harmonize society, to bring the human world back into balance.

    • Replies: @emerging majority
  223. antibeast says:
    @Anon

    Here’s an excerpt from a research report “Slavery in Early China: A Socio-Cultural Approach” by Robin Yates of McGill University:

    I therefore believe that, although the large number of laws concerning agriculture and grain storage, with their remarkable detail, show that taxes in the form of grain and hay, together with the poll tax, provided the main source of government income, the Qin’s exploitation of slave and convict labor in the advanced sector of the economy, not to mention its use of great amounts of corvée labor, may have been one of the decisive factors in their success in defeating the other states and unifying China.

    Does this mean that in Qin times the basic mode of production was the slave mode? In the current state of research, I would have to say a tentative “no” in response. The reasons for my opinion are that it is likely that, as I have argued elsewhere (Yates 1987), the vast bulk of the population were members of the “free” commoner class, and that it was they who provided most of the agricultural labor and most of the personnel for the Qin armies and aspired to positions in the Qin bureaucracy. Nevertheless, there was a slave, or at least forced labor, mode of production.

    Unlike Rome, where slaves were a far greater component of the total population and where slave labor was employed on a vast scale, particularly in the agricultural estates, the latifundia and also in mining, in certain occupations in the urban economy and in education, and which therefore has a strong claim to be labeled a slave mode of production (Anderson 1974: 53–107, especially 62ff), in China this mass of “free” commoners was a predominant force and certainly owned some of the means of production, such as oxen and tools, even if at present the extent to which they were able to own the land itself is open to question (Hulsewé 1985b: 215–18). As we have seen, these commoners could own slaves themselves, but there was clearly a wide range in financial circumstances between the richest and the poorest of them, and their wealth certainly was not at all equal to that of the aristocrats.

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233521004_Slavery_in_Early_China_A_Socio-Cultural_Approach

    That was during the Qin Dynasty. Since the Han abolished the Qin-sanctioned ‘conscript’ or corvée labor, prisoners and convicts became the only other sources of slave labor. The author also debunks debt bondage as another type of ‘slave” labor which is more akin to indentured servitude rather than chattel slavery.

    According to Finley in his book “Ancient Slavery and Modern Ideology”, there had been only FIVE(5) genuine slave societies in world history: Ancient Greece, Ancient Rome, Brazil, Caribbean and the USA. Moreover, Finley quotes John Gillies who claims that the slaves in Ancient Greece outnumbered the free by four to one!

    • Replies: @Anon
  224. Anon[414] • Disclaimer says:

    One last thing we have hundreds of samples from dozens of previously excavated sites of the roman republic and empire era and the vast mayority of samples from the city of rome from the late republic onward have a very strong middle eastener and north african ancestry ,so at least the grand mayority of slaves since the destruction of cartague were of of middle eastern/ north african ancestry with a very high afinity to the levant

    https://ibb.co/6YrYvsn

    Even the proto romans of the villanovan culture or for the proto greeks for that matter they did imposing thenselfs over the neholitic farmers that were autosomally nearly identical to the middle eastener.

  225. Anon[203] • Disclaimer says:
    @antibeast

    “According to Finley in his book “Ancient Slavery and Modern Ideology”, there had been only FIVE(5) genuine slave societies in world history: Ancient Greece, Ancient Rome, Brazil, Caribbean and the USA”

    Ridiculous only north africans slaved 15 million of subsaharan africans even more that the entire atlantic slave tradde castrated the males forcing them to work to death in the planyations and raped the females , now 60% of the female line of north africans came from subsaharian womans .

    Ottomans slaved the people from the balcans and bought entire comunities of eastern europeans slav-es making them The backbone of the ottoman military and the womans part of the harem of the the otoman dignataries

    bantus ( black africans) slaved and ulyimely extermimated the entire race of pigmeans , the testimony of arabs and later of europeans documentating how pigmeans were slaved all across subsaharan african and treated inumanely .

    Aztecs slaved all the nehighbours they conquered, ritually murdering much of their victims , if this is not a slave society i dont know what it is

    And In china slavery is well documented since the most ancient times , maybe it didnt reach the scale and diversity of profesional extension as in the roman empire during han dinasty but it was existant nonetheless , usually counted around 5% of the population

    the only difference may be the superior organization of europeans building a state and private organizations capable of implementing and documentating the whole process , thats all.

    That you cite a jewish called Moses Israel Finkelstein ” finley” as reputable source It’s the icing on the cake, a guy ​personally asociated with the frankfurt school whose anidmarversion to the germans later on extended to all europeans spawned a movement that have reduced the compresion of history to a childlike dualism where europeans are the bad the rest of the races of the world good saint and blameless no matter what.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  226. antibeast says:
    @Anon

    Finley had an ideological agenda when he began studying the history of slavery in Ancient Greece. He later wrote the essay “Was Greek Civilization based on Slave Labour?” So, yeah, I was surprised that he omitted any mention of the Arab, Persian, Tatar, Mongol, Ottoman and Barbary Slave Trades. But his intent was not to explore Oriental Slavery but to establish the historical antecedents of the modern slave societies in the New World to the ancient slave societies of Greece and Rome.

  227. @CosmicMythos

    Thanks for the thoughtful and informative response. I do wish there was a means by which we could communicate directly, as it is highly evidential that you would represent the ideal pre-publication sounding-board, possessed with a plethora of introspective critical thought.

    As I reside for communitarian purposes (among other factors) in a very common-sense and get the job done populated area; my direct interpersonal relationships hereabouts are not such as to facilitate the levels of discussion and general feedback which would be most helpful for my current primary intention to directly address those closing words in your response: “to re-harmonize society, to bring the human world back into balance”.

    My goal, precisely in releasing “The New World Cosmographic Alphabet” is to present a template, a precursor for a de-centralized form of globalism. Imagine for a moment that returning to a Real-Eye-Zation of Sacred Space of holistic re-harmonization, might be grounded on availability of a set of universalist symbology/graphic imagery which addresses not only that logical, rational, analytical left-brain, but also its subdued and subjected polar coordinate via the corpus calosum with its more than 200,000 interconectual neurons.

    Today, my task will be to compose yet another Cheat-Sheet explication of the Cosmographic image for the letter “T”. Simply enough, at least for English speakers, it happens to take the form of a pictographic image of a Ponderosa Pine or Eastern White Pine, comprised of some fifteen lines, one of them being the central trunk.

    Initiating the alphabet is yet another pictographic depiction, that of a teepee with smoke emanating from its structural support poles at the top of that A-frame structure. Arapaho, Apache, Assiniboine, even “America” can be portrayed in the levels of subconscious realization in that readily recognized bit of imagery. Additional to the 50 full-color plates of the states in the initial public offering, will be this currently 37 page exposition explanatory of the transmutation of each letter into right-brain consciousness form.

    With the technological availability of offset printing, it will be possible to leave Gutenberg Galaxy linearity behind in the dusty past, thus thrusting through the McLuhan Barrier by re-empowering both hemispheres of the brain into a harmonized whole. Thus, some of the states will be depicted in vertical, rather than strictly horizontal presentation.

    Graphically, it’s looking good and although the first edition, limited to 500 copies, will still contain a wart here and there; the prospect of new and improved updated editions will be enhanced by inputs from the minds and talents of additional individuals who might wish to become a contributor to this evolutionary enterprise experience.

    Perhaps another reading of the I-Ching today will further assist me in this quest. Could be that the old Chinese curse/proverb of “may you live in interesting times”, like the Tao itself, has more than one side to the equation.

    Again, my thanks for your presentation of a well-presented left-brain analysis based upon the limitations of my communication. Health of human social consciousness insists that we learn to think with more than half a brain.

  228. vox4non says:
    @Badger Down

    And only a minute amount actually goes to the person in need, after deducting “administrative” costs.

  229. JR Foley says:
    @Anonymous

    China is enjoying higher rate of all countries-

  230. Biff K says:
    @Anonymous

    Ethnically correct and it would make nice with NATO, too.

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