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The Hunt for Patient Zero
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In our last episode, Last Man Standing, we wondered if the Covid-19 outbreak might prove advantageous to China. Here we speculate about how–thanks to a bureaucratic decision about a common illness–it may cause America to lose world hegemony.

***

Finding the Index Case, Patient Zero, of an epidemic is critical to understanding and curbing further transmission. Dating its first appearance, sequencing its genomes, following the changes in its genetic structure, and finding the root of its genetic family tree help estimate the epidemic’s scale and scope of transmission, find intermediate hosts, understand how spreading took place and curb future transmission by focusing resources to contain it. Since genetic sequencing data can only come from those who are diagnosed, health workers still rely on contact tracing to find people whose infections have gone undetected. Once a patient is diagnosed, their primary contacts must be located and questioned about relevant symptoms and, if any of those contacts themselves fall ill, they trigger a second layer of contact tracing and the workload grows exponentially. Covid-19’s long incubation and asymptomatic transmission can make the search herculean: Indian health officials contacted 2,666 people after the first case was confirmed in Karnataka.

Every public health official on earth knows this yet, despite its WHO obligations, the CDC refuses to identify America’s Patient Zero and attacks those–including the WHO itself–who requests the information. The thesis of this article is that the CDC’s coverup will fail and the consequent revelations will hasten the fall of our First Republic[1]To understand how and why republics fall, read The Collapse of the Third Republic: An Inquiry into the Fall of France in 1940, by William L. Shirer..

***

In 2012, the Rand Corporation concluded, ‘the only threats capable of destroying America’s way of life are pandemics.’ In 2015, after Ezra Klein spoke with Bill Gates about his algorithmic model showing how a new strain of flu could spread rapidly he wrote, “A pandemic disease is the most predictable catastrophe in the history of the human race, if only because it has happened to the human race so many, many times before.” In 2017, Dr. Anthony Fauci expressed ‘no doubt’ that President Trump would face a viral pandemic during his tenure. In 2019, HHS’ Crimson Contagion pandemic report, marked ‘not to be disclosed,’ found Federal agencies jockeying over who was in charge, states and hospitals struggling to figure out what equipment was stockpiled or available, and cities and states going their own ways on group and school closings. This is truly astonishing, since

The CDC has been dismantling our public health system. In 2018 the White House pushed Congress to eliminate $252 million for disease security programs and reduce health spending by $15 billion by cutting the global disease-fighting operational budgets of the CDC, NSC, DHS, and HHS and eliminating the $30 million Complex Crises Fund. The President ordered the National Security Council’s Global Health Security unit shut down and reassigned Adm. Timothy Ziemer and his team. Then-National Security Advisor John Bolton pressured Adm. Ziemer’s DHS counterpart, Tom Bossert to resign, too, and neither team was replaced. Much of the staff of the CDC’s Global Health section was laid off and cooperating countries were cut from forty-nine to ten, and CDC Director Robert Redfield sought a further $7 billion cut for FY 2021. Last November a bipartisan panel convened by the CSIS concluded, “The United States must either pay now to gain protection and security or wait for the next epidemic and pay a much greater price in human and economic costs.”

A Series of Unfortunate Events.

On June 30, 2019, a pneumonia of unknown cause at Greenspring, a nursing home fifteen minutes from Fort Belvoir[3]The US Military Games team trained at Fort Belvoir before competing in Wuhan., VA, killed three and sickened 54.

On July 9th, another pneumonia of unknown cause was reported in Alexandria, VA and all lung images showed the ‘ground glass’ shadow typical of Covid-19. Coincidentally, the CDC chose that date to withdraw the only American epidemiologist embedded with Beijing’s CCDC. The following week a pneumonia epidemic was reported at a nursing home in Burke, VA and the Virginia State Health Bureau banned collective activities and began screening residents in assisted care facilities and requiring enhanced hygiene. In early August the CDC expanded its pneumonia patient detection system and, in an unprecedented civilian intervention in military affairs, shut down the Army’s main military biowarfare lab (and Superfund site), Fort Detrick, MD where, a senior scientist said, the atmosphere was one of “fear and mistrust.”

In late August, the Virginia Department of Health confirmed three more cases of severe lung illness of unknown origin. Between August-October, 2,500 patients reported gastrointestinal symptoms beginning before respiratory symptoms, with fever, elevated heart rate, and elevated white blood cell count–all symptoms typical of Covid-19. Many sought ambulatory care several times before hospitalization and their lung images showed a ‘ground glass’ shadow. Fifty percent needed intubation, many required supplemental oxygen, and some required assisted ventilation. Fifty-three died and the cause of the outbreak remains unexplained[4]The CDC does not actually count and then report the number of people who contract influenza or pneumonia during the flu season, “Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza. These estimates are calculated based on CDC’s weekly influenza surveillance data and are preliminary.” The numbers are statistical estimates only.. A similar outbreak[5]Doctor Giuseppe Remuzzi, director of the Mario Negri Pharmacology Institute in Milan, became a superstar in China. In an interview that went viral, Remuzzi talks about his explosive findings in conversations with general practitioners in Lombardy. “Do you know what happened? Certain family doctors, who have the best antennas in the territory, at least the most able and attentive ones, have told me recently that they were seeing grave cases of pneumonia, which we had never seen in other years. These pneumonia cases had nothing to do with typical flu pneumonia, they were interstitial pneumonias, they had to do CT, radiography [to diagnose it], and this was seen in October, November, December. So this virus has been circulating a long time.” That was indeed in parallel with or even before the first coronavirus cases in Wuhan in mid-November. It’s been already scientifically established that the virus strains in Wuhan and in Lombardy are different. Which came first, and where from, remains a matter of incendiary debate. was occurring simultaneously in Lombardy, Italy.

The following month the Deputy Director of the CIA participated in a pandemic tabletop exercise, Event 201, that modeled a fictional coronavirus pandemic and, after years of reducing headcount, the CDC began hiring quarantine managers:

In January, after private briefings on the COVID-19 pandemic, five senators avoided significant losses by selling major stock holdings and 219 CEOs, the largest cohort ever, retired at the top of the stock market.

On January 3 ILINet[6]The US Outpatient Influenza-Like-Illness Surveillance Network of three-thousand sentinel health care providers who report the weekly percentage of outpatient ILI visits to the CDC. China’s network, modeled on the CDC’s, has 70,000 sentinels. was functioning normally when the WHO alerted the CDC to Covid-19. When Beijing uploaded its genetic sequence a week later the CDC forbade its sentinels, including UW’s Dr. Helen Chu[7]Washington state epidemiologist Scott Lindquist recalled, “What they said on that phone call very clearly was cease and desist to Helen Chu. Stop testing.” https://reason.com/2020/03/11/how-government-red-tap...worse/, to test for it. A New York Times reader commented[8]Comment from Why The US Wasn’t Ready for the Coronavirus. NYT 03/11/2020. that such information suppression is common with the CDC, “I presume her lab continues to conduct the tests for research but is barred from sharing the results with public health authorities. I used to be the principal investigator on an IRB-approved, non-clinical brain imaging study for research many years ago. We decided that in the rare case we detected an abnormality in a participant’s brain, we would strongly suggest that they consult a clinician. Similarly, perhaps your lab could inform a participant testing positive for the virus in your study to seek medical attention immediately.” Two months later Dr. Chu ignored the CDC’s injunction and immediately discovered Covid-19 fatalities in Seattle. The CDC still obstructs and discourages testing.

DETROIT – A NURSE was found dead from coronavirus after her employer reportedly refused to test her because she wasn’t showing symptoms. Lisa Ewald, 53, worked as a nurse at Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit for more than 20 years but died last week after being exposed to the deadly virus. Ewald said she believed she was exposed to the coronavirus by a patient around March 24 while working in the emergency room. Neighbor Alexis Fernandez said Ewald immediately tried to get herself tested, but was told by her employer she couldn’t until she showed symptoms. According to her family, the nurse was refused a test twice.

WASHINGTON — A coroner in Indiana wanted to know if the coronavirus had killed a man in early March, but said that her health department denied a test. Paramedics in New York City say that many patients who died at home were never tested for the coronavirus, even if they showed telltale signs of infection. In Virginia, a funeral director prepared the remains of three people after health workers cautioned her that they each had tested positive for the coronavirus. But only one of the three had the virus noted on the death certificate. Across the United States, even as coronavirus deaths are being recorded in terrifying numbers—many hundreds each day—the true death toll is likely much higher. New York Times, April 7, 2020.

Hunting for Patient Zero

Chinese research shows that the virus was introduced into their country from elsewhere, Japanese and Taiwanese studies point to the US as its likely source, and Russian and Czech authorities share their suspicions.[9]March 29. Tass, “In order to unambiguously answer the question about the origin, where the first case emerged, major research needs to be carried out. So, Washington’s accusing tone in comments against China occasions utter bewilderment. As for ‘US trace’ in the COVID-19 outbreak, we don’t have this data yet. However, for a long time we have been watching with concern the US military and biological activity carried out in direct proximity with our borders. In other words, there are indeed questions for the US.” Kristian Andersen, a Scripps Institute evolutionary biologist, said it is ‘entirely plausible’ that infected persons brought the virus into the seafood market from somewhere outside and dated their ‘most recent common ancestor’ as early as 1 October 2019, when US athletes participated in the 2019 Military World games in Wuhan. Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease expert at Georgetown University, said the first infection has been confirmed as occurring in November 2019, (not in Wuhan), suggesting the virus originated elsewhere. “One group put the origin of the outbreak as early as 18 September 2019. China must have realized the epidemic did not originate in that Wuhan Huanan seafood market.” Lucey also noted that MERS was originally believed to have come from a patient in Saudi Arabia in June of 2012 but later, more thorough studies traced it to an earlier hospital outbreak of unexplained pneumonia in Jordan in April of that year and Western media’s origin stories about SARS, MERS, and ZIKA have all later proven wrong.

Circumstantial Evidence

  • The Director of the CDC is a career military officer and a non-scientist.
  • The CDC blocked Covid-19 testing for months and still obstructs it.
  • The CDC discusses Covid-19 in a top secret, secure facility because, staffers said, “It has something to do with China.”
  • Only under persistent Congressional questioning did the CDC Director reluctantly reveal the existence of earlier cases that had been diagnosed as influenza.
  • The CDC Director flatly refuses to discuss Patient Zero.
  • Western media show no interest in investigating Patient Zero.
  • Western media dismiss questions about Patient Zero as ‘political’ despite the fact that they are scientific.
  • Powerful US Government officials acted on foreknowledge of the epidemic
  • The media have been attacking the World Health Organization for months.
  • President Trump has threatened to de-fund the WHO.

***

Death of a Thousand Cuts

It appears that China has chosen to play offense this time and its weapons may prove decisive. Most American medical laboratories employ Chinese researchers, some of whom smuggled hospital tissue samples to China during the period under discussion. This explains the FBI’s medical panic[10]Including the arrest of Charles M. Lieber, Chair of Harvard’s Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology and leader of a Chinese research group using nanotechnology to identify viruses. last Fall, the CDC’s secrecy, and the Chinese Government’s brazen demand that the US reveal Patient Zero. If China has biological samples of American Covid-19 from 2019, then its demand is just the opening shot in a war of perceptions. Uncharacteristically, Chinese diplomats have ensured that a global audience is paying attention by repeating its challenge in major languages:

Next, to garner publicity for an analysis that could have been performed on a desktop, China chose Tianhe, the world’s first petaflop computer, to compare lung images attributed to vaping and to Covid-19. Using AI-assisted analysis whose algorithm’s accuracy is over 99 percent, Tianhe-1 found a high probability of Covid-19 in the CAT image of a patient who became severely ill between July and August in North Carolina. The features included white patches encroaching on the lower parts of both lungs, a phenomenon raising the eyebrows of some radiologists at the early stage of the outbreak because it was rarely seen in other types of pneumonia. Said the AI-generated report, “The image shows features of Covid-19, and a comprehensive diagnosis is recommended in combination with epidemiological information and other clinical characteristics.” The patient was one of five who presented at the WakeMed Hospital in Raleigh, North Carolina at about the same time, with acute lung injuries, according to information on the CDC website. Dr Kevin Davidson, who led a medical team that examined the patients at WakeMed, defended the original diagnosis but, said a Wuhan doctor, “The disagreement between Tianhe and WakeMed could be resolved by a laboratory test for the new coronavirus in the patient’s samples. If the samples are no longer available, an antibody test can be performed instead.” Pigs will fly…

Truth and Consequences

There are more rounds to be fought but, if China wins, will be sweet revenge for America’s many biological attacks since 1951[11]See The Report of the International Scientific Commission for the Investigation of the Facts Concerning Bacterial Warfare in Korea and China. Sir Joseph Needham, Lead Author, including Harvard’s theft of thousands of biological samples in the 1990s, and recent epidemics of mysterious origins. With ninety percent of its workforce already back in operation, if China does wins, where will the world be in twelve months if

  • Covid-19, like Swine Flu and Spanish Flu, began in the United States?
  • Covid-19 began at a notoriously unsafe military biowarfare facility?
  • The US Government and media covered it up?
  • The US blamed an innocent nation?
  • The US scapegoated the WHO?
  • The US mishandled its own outbreak disastrously?
  • The US coverup precipitated another financial crisis?
  • China again rescued the world from the American recession?

For politicians seeking to deflect attention from their own shortcomings and curry favor with the new superpower, blaming America may prove irresistible.

Postscript: That HHS and the CDC might be involved in villainy is not news. In the 1980s Linus Pauling described the criminal lengths to which HHS went to discredit years of promising research on Vitamin C’s effects on the longevity of thousands of cancer patients.

Notes

[1] To understand how and why republics fall, read The Collapse of the Third Republic: An Inquiry into the Fall of France in 1940, by William L. Shirer.

[2] Patient Zero for the 1918 ‘Spanish Flu’ was traced to Kansas City. Patient Zero for H1N1 officially occurred in San Diego in April, 2009, but three unrelated clusters during March suggest that transmission began earlier.

[3] The US Military Games team trained at Fort Belvoir before competing in Wuhan.

[4] The CDC does not actually count and then report the number of people who contract influenza or pneumonia during the flu season, “Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza. These estimates are calculated based on CDC’s weekly influenza surveillance data and are preliminary.” The numbers are statistical estimates only.

[5] Doctor Giuseppe Remuzzi, director of the Mario Negri Pharmacology Institute in Milan, became a superstar in China. In an interview that went viral, Remuzzi talks about his explosive findings in conversations with general practitioners in Lombardy. “Do you know what happened? Certain family doctors, who have the best antennas in the territory, at least the most able and attentive ones, have told me recently that they were seeing grave cases of pneumonia, which we had never seen in other years. These pneumonia cases had nothing to do with typical flu pneumonia, they were interstitial pneumonias, they had to do CT, radiography [to diagnose it], and this was seen in October, November, December. So this virus has been circulating a long time.” That was indeed in parallel with or even before the first coronavirus cases in Wuhan in mid-November. It’s been already scientifically established that the virus strains in Wuhan and in Lombardy are different. Which came first, and where from, remains a matter of incendiary debate.

[6] The US Outpatient Influenza-Like-Illness Surveillance Network of three-thousand sentinel health care providers who report the weekly percentage of outpatient ILI visits to the CDC. China’s network, modeled on the CDC’s, has 70,000 sentinels.

[7] Washington state epidemiologist Scott Lindquist recalled, “What they said on that phone call very clearly was cease and desist to Helen Chu. Stop testing.” https://reason.com/2020/03/11/how-government-red-tape-stymied-testing-and-made-the-coronavirus-epidemic-worse/

[8] Comment from Why The US Wasn’t Ready for the Coronavirus. NYT 03/11/2020.

[9] March 29. Tass, “In order to unambiguously answer the question about the origin, where the first case emerged, major research needs to be carried out. So, Washington’s accusing tone in comments against China occasions utter bewilderment. As for ‘US trace’ in the COVID-19 outbreak, we don’t have this data yet. However, for a long time we have been watching with concern the US military and biological activity carried out in direct proximity with our borders. In other words, there are indeed questions for the US.”

[10] Including the arrest of Charles M. Lieber, Chair of Harvard’s Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology and leader of a Chinese research group using nanotechnology to identify viruses.

[11] See The Report of the International Scientific Commission for the Investigation of the Facts Concerning Bacterial Warfare in Korea and China. Sir Joseph Needham, Lead Author

 
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  1. Cyrano says:

    No matter how the hunt for the patient zero turns out, I would still put the final blame on US. Because even if the patient zero is found to be Chinese – the patient -10 would most likely be an American.

    Whatever mistake the Chinese have made, even if they are proven to be ultimately the designers of the Covid 19, what might have propelled them to do something like that is simply the desire to be prepared for possible biowarfare against US.

    Everybody knows that US is found of wars. Unfortunately, they have almost zero talent for prosecuting wars (like the wars have done something wrong – it’s all US actually) and you have the result which is finding new and creative ways to wage wars, because you are not too good in the classical ways of warfare.

    I mean it’s only understandable, you are sitting, thinking about your favorite hobby – wars, and your not too good track record in them, and bright ideas start occurring to you.

    You notice a bunch of lazy viruses just lounging around uselessly, wasting their youth, and you think that you found a way to put them to some good use – make some good soldiers out of those lazy, good for nothing viruses. That’s what I think happened here. Even if the Chinese designed the virus – it was in response to someone else’s creative ideas of how to utilize the abundance of supply in viruses for something more “productive”.

  2. BobX says:

    Please do go on about how it started in the US but we hid the bodies until we could blame it on China. Godfree you are full of shit clear up to your eyebrows you Chicom shill.

  3. Patient zero found

    • LOL: Meimou
    • Replies: @anon
  4. How do you do? I’m Patient Zero. I got a persistent cough with two straight weeks of awesome runs in 2019. This was an unprecedented combination for my nose and my asshole, as I never get anything. A panel of a couple dozen infectious diseases returned… nothing. Zero positives.

    When there’s a reliable antibody test, I’m going to get one and I shall be famous as the Gaétan Dugas of not buttfucking. And like him, I wasn’t even the first.

    My fortnight on the can preceded the initial June bump in ‘vaping deaths’ lamely attributed to Vitamin E acetate and, in a tour de force of OPSEC, to an inadvertent fuckup at Fort Detrick. This was not in Virginia, either. Or Washington. Or Detroit. When you conduct your illegal medical experiments on the domestic population, you have a long grace period while your data is lost in the noise. Multiple introductions can be sequenced to hack and impede reporting. After that, when you’re CIA, you’ve got focal points in the public health system to obfuscate the data down to a dull roar. Then, when it’s plain as the nose on your face, you blame it on your enemy China.

    As old micro explained, you have to run biological weapons through a new species to boost viability and virulence there. Who better than the poor shmuks in your own downtrodden shithole? Documentary evidence and SCO COMINT show that UNC isolated SARS-COV-2, then Battelle contractors at Fort Detrick ran it through mice, then possibly ferrets, then us. CIA let it run for a good long time before anybody noticed except us biped lab rats.

    The next epidemic in Virginia is going to be CIA scumbags hanging upside down from lampposts.

    • Replies: @obwandiyag
    , @Truth3
  5. Excellent article.

    The only problem that I noticed is at the end of the paragraph Death of a Thousand Cuts. Looks as though the the last sentence was re-written but “repeated” was not changed to the called for ‘repeating’.

    Uncharacteristically, Chinese diplomats have ensured that a global audience is paying attention by repeated its challenge in major languages:

    Great work, thank you.

  6. ‘The Hunt for Patient Zero’

    What if ‘Patient Zero’ is an employee of Wuhan’s germ warfare lab?

    Somehow, I don’t think we’ll have a successful hunt.

  7. anon[325] • Disclaimer says:
    @Hippopotamusdrome

    Real patient zeros found:

    [MORE]

    • Troll: Seraphim
  8. Jiminy says:

    It would be enlightening if we knew how the CDC goes about its auditing procedure. Did a whistleblower alert them and the next day the bio lab was shutdown? Knowing of the US attitude towards whistleblowers this would seem highly unlikely. Or during a once yearly audit a probable release was picked up by the CDC, and then the bureaucratic wheels are slowly set in motion. I cannot imagine a government body making overnight decisions. In other words was something noticed in, maybe December 2018, and enacted on months later?

  9. EMP says:

    5 RMB has been deposited into your account.

    • LOL: Ozymandias
    • Troll: NPleeze, antibeast, Seraphim
  10. Pretending the W.H.O. is a legitimately run organization is too cute by half.

  11. @Cyrano

    Short version:

    Even if China is the guilty party, the Americans* are akshually extra truly mostest double-dog-dare-ya guilty.

    *My apologies for not using Murccans, but I just don’t have a clever bone in my body.

    • Agree: Poco, Herald
    • Replies: @skrik
  12. Anon[544] • Disclaimer says:
    @Colin Wright

    Stanford Researchers Say Californians May Have Herd Immunity to COVID-19

    Inside Edition CBS April 10, 2020
    As heartbreaking images of a mass grave on New York City’s Hart Island garner national attention, some wonder why California, the West Coast epicenter of the pandemic, isn’t being hit harder. Stanford University researchers believe the COVID-19 virus came to California last fall and was misidentified as a bad outbreak of the flu. Now, it’s possible millions of Californians were exposed to the virus and have developed herd immunity.

    https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/stanford-researchers-californians-may-herd-234859052.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cueWFob28uY29tLz9ndWNjb3VudGVyPTE&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAK6GmC3TKPJgpe2V9vxx7zjoLA93QrXRzR7z8N_ku9j0LhkFPKnnI49Y2KTHhitKEru1JWiKoTX3Otg8KaOMNHqmgBwQoKCKsxuS-6WqOh61sDMENz8rLivoLczC_97IViUQcwBWDRVQhAQgvc2V-FTXhWl4LDlatgPxixJcQFZm

    First of all, Wuhan lab is not a germ warfare lab. It is a pathogen research lab. The French helped build it and scientists from other countries have visited it.

    Secondly, the virus came to California last fall according to the Stanford researchers. Yes, last fall, mind you. See above link. That was before Wuhan’s outbreak.

    I think you got it in reverse. If ‘Patient Zero’ is an employee of Wuhan lab, we will have a successful hunt. If ‘Patient Zero’ is an American, the chance of locating that person is infinitely small.

    • Agree: Godfree Roberts
    • Replies: @Alden
    , @rge
  13. Nuncle says:

    ‘Indian health officials contacted 2,666 people after the first case was confirmed in Karnataka.’

    So what was learned from this?

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  14. @Cyrano

    There is evidence that patient zero is Maatja Benassi. Going down this rabbit hole explains the breakouts in the USA last year and the cases in the Lombardi region of Italy in October, November and December. George Webb’s analysis are very thorough:

    • Thanks: antitermite, Miro23
    • Replies: @Nuncle
  15. Shaman911 says:

    The Chinese Medical definition of “Wuhan” is (A TREMBLING CHILL). This is a World Masonic operation. In Numerology “Corona Virus is a 11” “Wuhan Virus is also a 11”. Then you have Convid-19 which is a 5. But 1 and 9 are part of the title. The Astrology (planet movements) over Wuhan the day this was announced is spot on for an event like this. Read these, it will explain what the future for the next 6 to 7 years is going to be like. Forward these to you friends. This is from 2 years ago and makes a vivid statement for whats happening and coming. https://graycrawford.net/2018/05/14/uranus-in-taurus/ then https://graycrawford.net/2020/04/02/ceres-at-the-crossroads-of-civilization/ and https://graycrawford.net/2020/03/22/saturn-in-aquarius/

    • Replies: @ishaobin
  16. Nuncle says:

    It’s likely that what the CDC wants to cover up is that COVID-19 does not actually exist. Its ‘existence’ is useful for far too many reasons to permit transparency.

    • Agree: Alden
  17. NPleeze says:
    @BobX

    Yes, typical AmeriNazi, just responds to a powerful presentation of facts with an ad hominem. Par for the course for those who know they are wrong or have an IQ < 70. Which are you?

    • Replies: @Realist
  18. NPleeze says:
    @Colin Wright

    Of course you are guaranteed not to have a successful hunt if you are not even hunting. And since hunting is imperative, the lack of hunting itself is proof that Patient Zero was, indeed, associated with Fort Detrick. The very Fort Detrick that had two “breaches” around August 2019 that resulted in the CDC shutting down Fort Detrick.

    You may remember Fort Detrick as the source of the Anthrax that was sent around in late 2001. Despite that obvious breach, the CDC did not shut down Fort Detrick at that time. So, it seems, these breaches in 2019 were much more serious. But CDC won’t tell you what was released – that’s CLASSIFIED. Why? Americans don’t have a right to know what pathogen Fort Detrick unleashed upon the world?

    The fact is you boot-licking AmeriNazis don’t care. If the US government murders 1 billion innocent babies you still don’t care, you’ll wave the flag and say your eyes were lying. Pathetic, really.

    • Agree: Realist, acementhead
  19. NPleeze says:

    I do not think the isolated cases at the nursing homes and the vaping deaths are related to SARS-CoV-2, as that virus spreads much faster and the outbreak that started in the US in mid-February 2020 would have started back in mid-August 2019. Also the vaping deaths started in April 2019 and were spread all over the country and one would have to come up with a plausible theory why only vapers were effected and why there were no “break-outs” in any of the regions where it happened. See map below (gray is 0, light purple is 1, dark purple is 2, red is 3, orange is 4, and yellow is at least 5 vaping deaths):

    Of course, there were at least two breaches at Fort Detrick (the nature of which are classified, of course, since Americans obviously have no reason to know what lethal pathogens their bio-warfare labs have released), so either those cases are unrelated, or the first cases were of the other breach of a much less easily transmitted virus.

    What’s much more telling is the US knowing much more about the virus in Nov. 2019 than China did (here), and that Event 201 “just happened” to simulate in Oct. 2019 the exact pandemic scenario which has unfolded.

    There are countless labs in the US conducting research on coronaviruses, par. with bat components, a lot of it funded by DARPA and the NIH. See e.g. here, here, here (notice the bat in the graphic), and here (see p. 17).

    Importantly, DARPA and NIH research includes “gain of function” research, which seek to construct more deadly viruses than are found in nature. Whether or not this research is “defensive” or “offensive”, the fact is they create super-viruses.

    • Agree: showmethereal
    • Thanks: Spanky
    • Replies: @gay troll
    , @Curmudgeon
  20. @BobX

    Good comment (there’s a serious argument in your irony). If it started in the USA before China I’d expect at least tens of millions of US cases now instead of half a million. Also, the restrictions on early testing were necessary because test kits had to be rationed for the most likely cases. It’s still necessary to check low probability hypotheses though. Sometimes there’s a change in virulence with a mutation. There’s also a remote possibility that US pneumonia treaters were doing something right for COVID-19 earlier by pure luck and that’s not being done now because it’s regarded as an inferior treatment for pneumonia. Trying to find patient zero for a new illness is and always has been expected of all countries, not just the USA. That the USA becomes abusive when asked to do what everybody has always done is suspicious but I suspect it has a lot to do with a wounded feeling of failed superiority. [email protected]

  21. @Cyrano

    the designers of the Covid 19

    Even if the Chinese designed the virus … utilize the abundance of supply in viruses for something more “productive”.

    But are they really that incompetent? What kind of idiot designs a weapon that exclusively kills non-combatants already on Death’s doorstep? Wouldn’t an IQ above room temperature (presumably needed for bio-engineering a virus) presuppose the realization that a weapon must strike potential combatants and disable them?

    If SARS-CoV-19 is lab made, it could only have been an African lab normally dedicated to researching Grape Drank formulas.

    • LOL: Meimou
    • Replies: @foolisholdman
  22. Parfois1 says:

    Smashing article by Godfree Roberts – again!

    Although it is a synthesis of public domain information already gathered (and some published here at UR) it is much more than connecting the dots and becomes a coherent summation and logical conclusion that the US many “initials agencies” have been “gaming” another tool of their abundant arsenal of hybrid warfare dirty tricks – the only way they know of derailing the unstoppable Chinese course to condemn the US to irrelevance. And that hurts when the hubris-drunk ruling class elite (and their imitative monkeys here) proclaim to all and sundry their “chosen”, “exceptional” and “indispensable” quality, now facing the public humiliation of having their snouts rubbed into the dirty to the glee of the sane side of mankind.

    Pity the State endowed with the capacity and resources to be a model to follow ending up as a laughing stock of a mockery – the end result of electing clowns for rulers for a money-whoreshipping clique.

  23. This is actually a very, very good point. No one in the USA seems to be interested in patient zero.

    Just retarded screams by retarded anons repeating China did it. Or that the virus is fake.

    • Agree: Spanky
    • Replies: @Tor597
  24. So the hypothesis is then that it started naturally in the US, which figured out what it was, and that it spread it to China with their military games team – in the heart of China’s travel network, just when the Chinese were moving the most for New Year?

    Sounds fairly Shaytan-e Bozorgi to me.

    • Replies: @Tor597
  25. On July 9th, another pneumonia of unknown cause was reported in Alexandria, VA and all lung images showed the ‘ground glass’ shadow typical of Covid-19.

    Most American medical laboratories employ Chinese researchers, some of whom smuggled hospital tissue samples to China during the period under discussion.

    Obviously the cases reported in the DC Metro Area last summer cannot be attributable to the same virus that spread from Wuhan due to different rates of infectious propagation, so it is misleading to insinuate that the early virus also caused the current worldwide outbreak.

    If one presumes that both viruses came from a lab, then one should not rule out that the one causing the cases reported last year was merely an early and comparatively more benign prototype, without the enhancements (“gain of function” properties) and chimera qualities that were subsequently engineered (“weaponized”) at a lab in Wuhan. Such a relationship would already be sufficient to explain why the US government officials would prefer to remain silent about this topic.

    Professor Boyle from University of Illinois readily acknowledged the likelihood, two months ago, that the base of the virus that spread rapidly in Wuhan had American origins, specifically from a lab at the University of North Carolina.

    What is presented in the article is not inconsistent with the plausible allegation that the current viral outbreak was accidentally released in Wuhan in November.

    So I guess the resulting moral of this article is that the USA should be culpable for the ongoing outbreak anyway, somehow, because they operated Level-4 biological labs but were then too lax and allowed Chinese researchers to steal dangerous viruses from these purportedly secure labs to then be made more deadly at their lab in Wuhan.

  26. Ft. Detrick. That’s where it comes from.

  27. @Colin Wright

    Nothing. Because he’s not. He’s from Ft. Detrick, mook.

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
  28. antibeast says:
    @BobX

    Please do go on about how it started in the US but we hid the bodies until we could blame it on China. Godfree you are full of shit clear up to your eyebrows you Chicom shill.

    US hospitals are now doing mass testing for the presence of antibodies which nobody can hide. With such a high number of both past and current Covid-19 cases, the empirical data is now showing that there had been a viral outbreak in the US Northeast BEFORE the Wuhan outbreak last year.The presence of all FIVE strains of the Covid-19 virus in the USA against only one strain in the UK, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Australia, Japan, HK, Singapore, South Korea and only TWO strains in China proves that the USA is where the Covid-19 virus originated.

    • Agree: showmethereal
  29. Nuncle says:

    The Epoch Times is saturation bombing YouTube with its new documentary blaming China for the outbreak. I look forward to reading your response!

  30. HorstG says:

    A hunt for a patient zero is a common Hollywood plot. By doing so, the narrative is accepted, it’s a frame. Two other scenarios: A – the virus has been released by intent, in this case we would probably have multiple patients. B – there is not one “new” virus, just testing, by witch casualties are categorized as that illnesses.
    It’s just ridiculous. Have a look at the alleged mass funeral on Heart island.

  31. Hempus says:

    The Author of this article should rather make a new hunt for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq or rise the question:

    Did Bill Gates and the big pharma / WHO spell fake menaces over all nations to weaken the resistance against the greater Israel project?

    Unfortunately the leadership of Iran and even Syria fell into the trap installed by the WHO.
    What we face now is the Samson option without nuclear bombs!

    A WHO surveillance police state to crush the resistance.

    God fearing people all over the world are now celebrating eastern and the “exodus” when the almighty god of the chosen people spelled the menaces over the ancient Egyptians.
    But we have not one faser of evidence that this menaces happened. (ancient fake news!)
    The “holy” bible degenerated (like a virus mutation ) into a war strategy camouflaged as a religion.

    Now Bill Gates and the FED money printing machine is the real almighty god of the chosen people. They lend now big money to turn all nations into debt slaves.

  32. Well there has been this theory going around for a while of patient zero being a ‘matbenassi’ or other alias linked to US intelligence https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=%23maatjebenassi (some of those may have been removed)
    Raises more questions than answers.

  33. Mike-SMO says:

    The two terms of President Obama seem to have been enough to render agencies such as the FDA and CDC into inept paper shufflers that were unable to respond to the situation. It is irrelevant from a public health and safety point of view what happened in China. The Federal agencies saw and/or did nothing.

    As I recall, the FDA took about 3 weeks to even decide on a name for the virus/disease that didn’t “stigmatize” anyone. The CDC “borked” what testing material was available and then took almost 2 weeks to notify anyone that they couldn’t possibly handle the testing load. With these groups alone, the U.S. had no further need of traditional “enemies”.

    I suppose that there are some functional components of these agencies that could be transferred, possibly, to the NIH. The rest should be transferred to un-furnished trailers at Prudhoe Bay and south Chicago to collect fleas, ticks, and other vermin that might threaten the local population. That would be a matter of national safety while we chase the Carona Virus and try to keep infected people alive. I suspect that there is no option under Federal employment rules for charging negligent homicide.

  34. Spanky says:

    Thanks… Well researched and written. Interesting article, to say the least.

  35. Valks says:
    @BobX

    Why would we have to hide the bodies? You just write a cause of death that matches symptoms and go on with it. Nothing to test for until China released the make up of the virus.

    • Replies: @Human being
  36. @Nuncle

    The date on which the outbreak started and the phenotype of the virus, A, B, or C.

    • Replies: @Nuncle
  37. skrik says:
    @Gleimhart Mantooso

    but I just don’t have a clever bone in my body

    Obviously not; attention à la merde! You and your ilk could probably afford to drop your dog-turds someplace else? bye

  38. @Colin Wright

    This just in:

    Stanford Researchers Say Californians May Have Herd Immunity to COVID-19

    CBS Inside Edition, April 10, 2020

    As heartbreaking images of a mass grave on New York City’s Hart Island garner national attention, some wonder why California, the West Coast epicenter of the pandemic, isn’t being hit harder. Stanford University researchers believe the COVID-19 virus came to California last fall and was misidentified as a bad outbreak of the flu. Now, it’s possible millions of Californians were exposed to the virus and have developed herd immunity.

    https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/stanford-researchers-californians-may-herd-234859052.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cueWFob28uY29tLz9ndWNjb3VudGVyPTE&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAK6GmC3TKPJgpe2V9vxx7zjoLA93QrXRzR7z8N_ku9j0LhkFPKnnI49Y2KTHhitKEru1JWiKoTX3Otg8KaOMNHqmgBwQoKCKsxuS-6WqOh61sDMENz8rLivoLczC_97IViUQcwBWDRVQhAQgvc2V-FTXhWl4LDlatgPxixJcQFZm

  39. @Jiminy

    I suspect the answer to your question is contained in the agency’s title: the Center for Disease Control. They had to intervene (though I’m sure they were reluctant, as you say) because a disease had escaped and they had to control it.

    That would explain why they shut down Ft.Detrick AND why they banned testing for the escaped virus (probably Covid Type A) and suppressed test results. Combine DOD embarrassment (fatal to Manning and Assange) with CDC corruption (documented elsewhere on Unz Review) and you have a perfect storm of bullshit.

    Judging by this headline, they’ve figured out a way to back out of it:

    Stanford Researchers Say Californians May Have Herd Immunity to COVID-19 CBS Inside Edition April 10, 2020

    As heartbreaking images of a mass grave on New York City’s Hart Island garner national attention, some wonder why California, the West Coast epicenter of the pandemic, isn’t being hit harder. Stanford University researchers believe the COVID-19 virus came to California last fall and was misidentified as a bad outbreak of the flu. Now, it’s possible millions of Californians were exposed to the virus and have developed herd immunity.

    https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/stanford-researchers-californians-may-herd-234859052.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cueWFob28uY29tLz9ndWNjb3VudGVyPTE&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAK6GmC3TKPJgpe2V9vxx7zjoLA93QrXRzR7z8N_ku9j0LhkFPKnnI49Y2KTHhitKEru1JWiKoTX3Otg8KaOMNHqmgBwQoKCKsxuS-6WqOh61sDMENz8rLivoLczC_97IViUQcwBWDRVQhAQgvc2V-FTXhWl4LDlatgPxixJcQFZm

    • Replies: @Tor597
    , @Jiminy
    , @Anon
  40. GeeBee says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    Thanks for your very welcome and thought-provoking article Mr Roberts. One such thought duly provoked (and especially after watching George Webb’s clip posted above at comment No. 14) concerns the so-called ‘vaping death’ phenomenon, to which Mr Webb alludes in his clip. He describes how it is important to run a weapons-grade biowarfare virus through actual hosts, in several stages beyond its first formulation in the lab, in order to increase its virulence, and that this might first include rodents and then move onto human hosts.

    He also adumbrates the potential logistical difficulties attendant upon finding suitable vectors, in order to get the virus into these (presumably unwitting) human hosts. Is it possible that proprietory vaping formulations might have been used as a vector, in order to give the virus its essential ‘run-around’ in human hosts? I’d appreciate your (or iindeed others’) thoughts on this.

  41. Wielgus says:

    I have been intrigued by the language of the virus crisis, especially these two items:
    1. Lockdown – this used to conjure up images of disciplinary measures for dangerous or uncooperative prisoners in jail, preferably high-security. Now John Q. Public is in lockdown.
    2. Herd immunity – herd is a term normally applied to a group of animals. With humans, it has a contemptuous undertone. Why not “group immunity”? “Group” suggests humans and not a bunch of zebras in the Kalahari.

    “Thinning the herd”

    I take from this two things, at least as food for thought –
    1. We are seen as dangerous.
    2. We are seen as animals.

    • Agree: Ber, Meimou
    • Replies: @Human being
  42. @Jiminy

    You have heard of “plausible deniability?’ That is why it was shut down.

  43. Tor597 says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    Agreed. In ALL viral breakouts the CDC would be very interested in finding patient 0.

    Why not this time?

  44. George says:

    CDC Lifts Shutdown Order on Army Biolabs at Fort Detrick

    https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-lifts-shutdown-order-army-202001923.html

    As far as the case in Maryland, if that were Covid why did the situation stop? Wouldn’t it have keep spreading in Maryland?

  45. Tor597 says:
    @Ilya G Poimandres

    My theory is that Corona Virus is a bio weapon that the US released during the Wuhan war games.

    But because of poor safety measures at Fort Dietrich the virus broke containment last year. If the US already has a cure, they could have contained it from breaking out.

    What interests me the most, is that anyone in the Healthcare field will tell you that this fall was a brutal flu season. It was quite deadly. This leads to to question if a milder form of the virus was circulating at that time.

    • Replies: @George
    , @Ilya G Poimandres
  46. Tor597 says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    What is the significance of type B mutating slowly in China but rapidly elsewhere?

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
    , @Iris
    , @ltlee1
  47. skrik says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    USA should be culpable for the ongoing outbreak anyway, somehow, because they operated Level-4 biological labs but were then too lax and allowed Chinese researchers to steal dangerous viruses

    I ‘like’ your “somehow;” my own version = 101%, especially when we consider the concepts implied by ‘Level-4 biological labs’ = “No leaks, idiots, ever!” [Oh, but then they closed Ft. Detrick, how sad.] I’ve read ‘rumours’ of a putative ‘Khazarian Mafia,’ we could here postulate a ‘JooSA Mafia.’ But it would take some ‘special’ sort of criminal, perverse mafia-type organisation to ever embark upon such ‘research’ resulting in a weaponised, human mass-killer virus. FYI, JooSA has multiple Level-4 biological labs spread across the planet – oh; but only for ‘defensive’ reasons, of course! rgds

    • Replies: @skrik
  48. skrik says:
    @skrik

    PS IF the HIV inclusions in the spike are present in *all* 5 types [those 5 only present in *one* country] THEN it would be pretty clear as to origin…

  49. KlcTan says:
    @BobX

    As far back as late November, U.S. intelligence officials were warning that a contagion was sweeping through China’s Wuhan region, changing the patterns of life and business and posing a threat to the population, according to four sources briefed on the secret reporting.

    Concerns about what is now known to be the novel coronavirus pandemic were detailed in a November intelligence report by the military’s National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI), according to two officials familiar with the document’s contents……….Those analyses said China’s leadership knew the epidemic was out of control even as it kept such crucial information from foreign governments and public health agencies.

    CPH comment: If an epidemic was sweeping Wuhan in November changing patterns of life and business, how could the Wuhan gov’t covered it up ??

    This means the US military inserted the virus in Wuhan in Oct/Nov, knew an epidemic would sweep Wuhan in the next few months and tried to warn Trump to make preparations for the US.

    https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/intelligence-report-warned-coronavirus-crisis-early-november-sources/story?id=70031273

    • Replies: @antibeast
  50. anastasia says:

    Notice that no one in the media will tell you how many patients are in each hospital. This is vital information and it is newsworthy. Why do they refuse to tell us. Even Medscape doesn’t know. .https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/928518

    I have heard from some nurses that some are full. I have heard from other nurses that their hospitals are empty. This is hearsay. Most of these nurses are hysterical and you cannot question them and get coherent answers.

    But the reason we cannot know is because the government and the media REFUSE to tell us. On my local channels in New York with Grandpa Cuomo speaking for hours every day, this vital, pertinent and newsworthy info should have been given us. They should have put it up on a screen everyday how many are in each hospital. They do not even tell us how many are in all hospitals. Nor do they tell us how many are on ventilators.

    Putting two and two together, they may be channeling these patients into certain hospitals, creating overcrowding in some, and being empty in others. BUT I cannot know this because they refuse to give us pertinent and newsworthy information. Why?

    Now we know that a protocol has been sent to every hospital by the CDC about how to treat the patient. Intubation. Doctors are now saying this is the wrong protocol and that the ventilators are killing the patients. We are learning that it is not a respiratory problem, but a oxygen in the blood problem. Is this even a virus? Comments are being made about how the virus is getting into the hemoglobin without a “receptor” https://thehighwire.com/

    We also learned that the government is paying hospitals MORE if they are treating Covid patients, and alot more if they put them on ventilators. This is also creating a problem with the numbers for hospital administrators who, like everyone else with dollar signs in their eyes, are guiding what doctors are to do with these patients. Further, it is clear by the Bigtree interview with the emergency room doctor that these protocols have the consequence of usurping their clinical judgment. https://www.citizenfreepress.com/breaking/physician-speaks-out-hospitals-are-getting-paid-more-to-list-patients-as-covid-19/

    We also know that they are manipulating the numbers. We know this from the CDC directives given to hospitals about how they are to count Covid patients. We also know this by other measures taken which reward them (more money) if they lie, or fudge the truth. Alot of doctors already do this already to get money from insurers. I have personal knowledge about this.

    They are presuming that everyone who comes into hospitals with flu symptoms or respiratory problems have this virus (what about other flus? Did they disappear?) . They are directing that doctors put down this virus on the death certificate even though the doctors clinical judgment may be otherwise. Why would they do this. Why would they try to influence a doctor’s clinical judgment in this way? If they were on the level, they would not even try to influence a doctor’s clinical judgment. He is in the best position to know what his patient died from.

    Taking these drastic measures cannot possibly have anything to do with the flu. Scientists and doctors, biomathematicians, should have known this by looking at the numbers in China. They should have known it was the same as any other flu. Finding a new strain of virus is commonplace. They are filed with WHO all the time. See Wodarg. Com Further, David Crowe from Theinfectiousmyth.com shows that the conclusions that were drawn by the Chinese in their clinical studies had no real basis in fact.

    Trump has clearly turned over his Presidency to these insane people in CDC and other government health agencies who are making money as shown by RFK, Jr., and who have complete immunity from lawsuits for any vaccines they inject into us. This immunity from lawsuits is a law. It is not a secret. The law is there for all to see. The lack of any studies about the adverse effects of these vaccines is known because none have been published. They have not published any because they don’t have any. But they will make 500 billion dollars giving everyone a vaccine, and the people in the CDC also stand to gain monetarily. https://www.facebook.com/RTAmerica/videos/the-cdc-is-actually-a-vaccine-company-robert-f-kennedy-jr/607386286749107/

    Here is another, among the many, microbiologist and infectious disease doctor saying that what governments are doing is insane. Wodarg.com

    Could it be any clearer that the measures they are taking have nothing to do with the flu? Look how willingly the people are swallowing what the media is saying and are NOT LISTENING TO WHAT THEY ARE NOT SAYING AND SHOULD BE SAYING because it is pertinent and newsworthy information. The gaps and holes in their news coverage are as wide as the Grand Canyon. Is there anyone left with a critical mind, who doesn’t just swallow whole, even when we see measures like this being taken, even when there are large gaps and holes in the information? Just count the masks, and you will see how many.

    • Replies: @skrik
    , @Spanky
  51. @GeeBee

    I basically watch trends and have no technical expertise to contribute. I suspect ‘vaping’ was part of the coverup of the release of Covid-19 from Ft. Detrick. It certainly was never proven.

  52. George says:
    @Tor597

    ” released during the Wuhan war games.”

    Why at the Wuhan war games? Why not some other random location in China by a random tourist traveling to Wuhan? Seems like people just googled events in Wuhan and that stuck out, but to me it makes no sense.

    • Replies: @Tor597
  53. @Tor597

    I don’t know. We’ll have to wait until the experts have completed their analyses.

  54. MLK says:
    @BobX

    Infectious diseases share many similarities to conspiracy theories whatever the subject matter.

    The impulse to declare the Patient Zero being a rough equivalent to the reductionist conspiratorial beginning.

    Bias Confirmation is present in both. You don’t get a more concise iteration, utterly lacking in self-awareness, than this:

    In our last episode, Last Man Standing, we wondered if the Covid-19 outbreak might prove advantageous to China. Here we speculate about how–thanks to a bureaucratic decision about a common illness–it may cause America to lose world hegemony.

    Roberts makes no bones about his for CCP China. I’ve enjoyed reading him for insight into what is being Transmission Belted on its behalf and, not the least, when Radio Silence is ordered.

    The bias I prefer is one against knee-jerk conspiracy theorizing. As a general proposition, countries have responded in character and current condition. CCP China did as any communist country would, only more so — first with secrecy and then an utter disregard for liberties or anything else that might at some point threaten the CCP and its current leadership.

    As the pandemic spread exponentially, so did the level of complexity any conspiracy theory — remember, exercises in reductionism — had to account for. Killing them in direct relation to the IQ of the would be host.

    I apologize for taking the fun out of this one. But don’t worry, there will be future waves ad infinitum.

  55. Agent76 says:

    Mar 25, 2020 How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu? Which one is more worrisome?

    For comparison, in the U.S. alone, the flu (also called influenza) has caused an estimated 38 million illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

    https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

    Nov 4, 2019 Event 201 Pandemic Exercise: Segment 4, Communications Discussion and Epilogue Video

    Event 201 is a pandemic tabletop exercise hosted by The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. The exercise illustrated the pandemic preparedness efforts needed to diminish the large-scale economic and societal consequences of a severe pandemic.

    Mar 20, 2020 BREAKING: Incoming Troops & MARTIAL LAW As ALL of NY ORDERED on LOCKDOWN With Strict QUARANTINE!!!

    Meanwhile the national guard has been deployed and the US military is taking the steps now to have their soldiers ready for anything when it comes to dealing with those who may disobey the orders.

    • Replies: @Desert Fox
  56. Iris says:
    @GeeBee

    Is it possible that proprietory vaping formulations might have been used as a vector

    This is a very good question.
    A virus cannot reproduce but can survive outside the human body.
    When exposed, SARS-CoV-2 would survive for only hours, possibly 2-3 days. But a purpose-made vaping preparation mimicking a lab in-vitro solution would have the potential to increase considerably its survival time, as well as pass it onto smokers.

  57. nsa says:

    South Korea only racked up 250 wu-wu virus fatalities TOTAL. America has managed to rack up 2000 wu-wu fatalities in just ONE DAY! Quite exceptional for even the Exceptional Nation. All together now: USA…….USA………USA………..USA…. Louder now: USA……….USA………..USA……..

    • Replies: @Really No Shit
  58. @Cyrano

    Your handle is very apropos, Cyrano!

  59. Iris says:
    @Tor597

    What is the significance of type B mutating slowly in China but rapidly elsewhere?

    The researchers who produced this identification of 3 virus strains, A, B and C, noted the oddity that the original Strain B, the most common in Wuhan, stayed quite stable and constant while within SE Asia, but went through much accelerated and varied mutations when taken outside of SE Asia.

    This oddity could be due to:
    – either an unknown founder event
    – or the fact that the B type was so well adapted to East Asian that it did not have to mutate in order to survive.

    Cluster B is striking with regard to mutational branch lengths: While the ancestral B type is monopolized (26/26 genomes) by East Asians, every single (19/19) B-type genome outside of Asia has evolved mutations. This phenomenon does not appear to be due to the month-long time lag and concomitant mutation rate acting on the viral genome before it spread outside of China (Dataset S1, Supplementary Table 2).

    A complex founder scenario is one possibility, and a different explanation worth considering is that the ancestral Wuhan B-type virus is immunologically or environmentally adapted to a large section of the East Asian population, and may need to mutate to overcome resistance outside East Asia.

    In other terms, the original Strain B would have been tailored to East Asians or to their environment.

    https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117

    • Replies: @Tor597
    , @Erebus
  60. vot tak says:

    As with hid previous report “Last Man Standing”, this is an excellent article from Godfree Roberts.

  61. Jiminy says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    Yes I did see that explanation diagram earlier, but I was thinking more along the lines that there was a point when CDC ears pricked. When that was would be interesting to know , because then the public could determine roughly the Maryland bio lab release date occurrence. You could then say, “okay the release obviously happened before this particular date. “All we do know is when the CDC shut down the bio lab, not when their suspicions were aroused. I do think we won’t know that little tidbit of information for another 25 years.

  62. Juniper says:

    The CDC is led by a non-scientist military officer.

    This is false, as a quick google search reveals that the current director of the CDC, Robert R. Redfield, while ALSO a (retired) military officer, is an MD who became a medical researcher focusing on the field of virology.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  63. Anon[544] • Disclaimer says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    “These techniques are mostly known for mapping the movements of prehistoric human populations through DNA. We think this is one of the first times they have been used to trace the infection routes of a coronavirus like COVID-19.”

    The team used data from virus genomes sampled from across the world between 24 December 2019 and 4 March 2020. The research revealed three distinct “variants” of COVID-19, consisting of clusters of closely related lineages, which they label ‘A’, ‘B’ and ‘C’.

    Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one discovered in bats – type ‘A’, the “original human virus genome” – was present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city’s predominant virus type.

    Mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the US and Australia.

    Wuhan’s major virus type, ‘B’, was prevalent in patients from across East Asia. However, the variant didn’t travel much beyond the region without further mutations – implying a “founder event” in Wuhan, or “resistance” against this type of COVID-19 outside East Asia, say researchers.

    The ‘C’ variant is the major European type, found in early patients from France, Italy, Sweden and England. It is absent from the study’s Chinese mainland sample, but seen in Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea.

    https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-genetic-network-analysis-provides-snapshot-of-pandemic-origins

    Just want to add the article here.

    • Thanks: Godfree Roberts
  64. @Tor597

    Yes, there is a lot of anectodal evidence to this virus being around for a while. I’m not sure if it was artificial – the Novosibirsk virus lab head said that it looks natural (after carefully saying that one couldn’t know if it was artificial).. https://youtu.be/2opZ3o6BrE8 (in Russian).. Everyone could be political, but the Russians are fairly honest.

    Could have been of course, but that it cripples old people instead of children, would make it a terrible weapon in the long run – just lower pension and medical costs for China.

    In either case, it is the intention that matters. Whether natural or artificial, did the US intentionally spike China with it?

    On the balance of its historical actions, it would only surprise me if they didn’t!

    • Replies: @Tor597
  65. Anonymous[407] • Disclaimer says:
    @Cyrano

    Worried about the response? Check out this video of what our heroes in scrubs are doing in the empty ER’s to fight the mighty coronavirus at “Coronavirus Got Talent” on YouTube and weep not for the patients but for what had once been a civilized nation.

    And because “We’re all in this together,” remember to post selfies of you and your family holding up worshipful cards reading, “We stayed home for you, so you could stay at work for us.” Got help us.

  66. This is the biggest load of crap I have ever seen. This fool even repeats the old bio-warfare canard the Commies and their Western friends spread during the Korean War! Amazing! Communist China is a brutal, aggressive dictatorship. China is a dirty, dirty place. These epidemics (and pandemics) have been coming out of China for centuries because of the way of life of the poor in China, living with their animals and consu,ing things not fit for human consumption. There are no great mysteries about this, except the question of whether the ChiComs let it escape from a bio-warfare lab, on purpose or by accident .

  67. gay troll says:

    Flimsy cover up. The symptoms of EVALI and COVID19 are identical, and according to the CDC there is no diagnostic test for EVALI. Here in California the COVID wave never crashed, and I think the thesis of previous exposure and herd immunity is correct.

    The only difference between these diseases is what the CDC claims about them. CDC is now in the awkward position of making it look like “Chinese flu” is a full-blown health crisis in America, when many or most Americans have already been exposed.

  68. antibeast says:
    @KlcTan

    This means the US military inserted the virus in Wuhan in Oct/Nov, knew an epidemic would sweep Wuhan in the next few months and tried to warn Trump to make preparations for the US.

    This is the smoking gun.

    The US military’s National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) warned Trump in early November of 2019 that a viral pandemic was spreading in China. How did they know this fact in early November of 2019 when the Chinese discovered the new virus only in late December of 2019? Did the US military brought this virus to China when they participated in the Wuhan military games from Oct 18-27, 2019? Did the US participants who were hospitalized during their stay in Wuhan and later airlifted out of China test positive for Covid-19 after their return to the USA? Was this the reason why the NCMI warned Trump that a viral pandemic was spreading in China which would soon impact the USA?

    • Thanks: Iris
    • Replies: @luke2236
  69. gay troll says:
    @NPleeze

    Remember, dead vapers were mostly healthy young people. EVALI was only a scapegoat for these outliers. Older victims would have been blamed on the flu, and indeed the CDC shows an unusually high number of flu fatalities for 2019-20. Meanwhile 80+ percent of cases were asymptomatic/mild.

    The only thing that could ever distinguish EVALI from a respiratory infection was a history of vape use. It was always a correlation and no causative mechanism was ever demonstrated.

  70. Tor597 says:
    @George

    A random tourist bringing in a biological agent is too risky to be caught through screening.

    The advantage of the war games is that you have hundreds of military personnel coming into the country at the same time. It is easier to sneak something in because they don’t go through the same type of airport screening.

    Plus, I think for this operation you can’t do it with just 1 person. You need a team of people to spread it.

    • Replies: @Wally
  71. Al Liguori says: • Website

    While the US suffers a lack of protective face masks, the US Dept. of Defense, shipped over 1 million masks to the Israeli army—and then covered it up!

    [MORE]

    As soon as this drew attention, the Jerusalem Post quickly altered the report.

    Thanks to Archive.org’s Wayback Machine, the evidence is preserved: https://web.archive.org/web/20200408002630/https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/US-Department-of-Defense-give-1-million-masks-to-IDF-for-coronavirus-use-623976

    More details at: http://judaism.is/jew-flu.html

    • Thanks: Iris, antitermite
  72. @Anonymous

    This is worse than the ice bucket challenge a few years back.

  73. Tor597 says:
    @Iris

    Wow, so that leads credence to the race based bioweapon that targets China.

    If it was not the B strain that hit China, the virus may not have even spread since it would have had to mutate to find an efficient way to enter the population.

    I really want to know what strain Iran was hit with. It seems like they were targeted with a bioweapon too.

    • Replies: @Iris
  74. Tor597 says:
    @Ilya G Poimandres

    Why would that be a bad bioweapon?

    It is working exactly as intended if you were an evil neocon. The world is trying against China and will bring more of their supply chain home.

    Meanwhile, the west is also having the same “benefits” of the outbreak with many old American pensioners and blacks dieing out.

    • Replies: @Ilya G Poimandres
  75. skrik says:
    @anastasia

    Is there anyone left with a critical mind, who doesn’t just swallow whole

    Err, perhaps you could try asking Iran, Russia, Cuba etc., say. Q: How do your putative scammers drag such ‘outliers’ into your wild [#coronahoax? or “It’s only a normal flu”] conspiracy theory? rgds

  76. Well done.

    It didn’t take long as I read the thread before finding some a**hat ridiculing you and calling you names.

    As a long time blogger, who has all but given it up, it is refreshing to see others pick up the baton.

    Don’t let the bastards grind you down.

    • Thanks: Godfree Roberts
  77. @obwandiyag

    ‘Nothing. Because he’s not. He’s from Ft. Detrick, mook.’

    I suppose it would be logically insupportable to rule out a hypothesis simply on the grounds that Obwandiyag advocates it. After all, he probably agrees the earth goes around the sun, and that remains true even if he assents to it.

  78. Erebus says:

    The “Czech authority” the article links to was first cited in the Last Man Standing thread and contains a couple of smoking guns, including what I’d consider an extremely interesting, perhaps even critical one.

    I view this as a very important interview, but in no way does Dr. Pekova hint that she thinks it originated in an American Lab. She may have said so elsewhere, but in that particular interview she specifically does not. She initially avoids specificity, mentions the Wuhan laboratory in passing and declines to answer the interviewer’s more leading questions. To suggest that she suspects an American lab is to claim the article’s author can read her mind.

    The italicized quotes below are from the subtitles (but the bolding is mine)…

    The first of the smoking guns is that the test kits initially released by the CDC were, in addition to being the viral test design equivalent of an F-35, non-specific for the SARS-2 virus. The CDC test targets the “tail” of the genome of which much is common across the Corona family, so it gives false positives for SARS-2 but doesn’t indicate the crucial viral load of the SARS-2 virus itself. As she notes, “… during an epidemic, that’s not the way to do it.

    One may wonder why the CDC took such a long time coming up with a useless and expensive test, but Dr. Pekova and her colleagues quickly developed an alternative. It uses the same technologies as the CDC’s but is simple (even a mobile lab can do it), quick (15min), cheap, near 100% accurate for both the presence of SARS-2 and the viral load, and, most importantly, it targets a part of the genome which is unique to SARS-2. No other known virus has this sequence, so the test wouldn’t be picking up one or more of the 1,000s of other Corona viruses that may be present in the subject at the time.

    One may further wonder why the CDC would focus on the SARS-2 genome’s generic tail rather than its unique sections further towards the “head” of the genome. While Dr. Pekova never directly answers that question, she states unequivocally that a singularly important and unique part of the genome could not have had a natural origin.

    She explains:
    Virus mutation occurs primarily in the regions that “… encode (the) structural proteins… that form the body of the virus… (and) attack the cell“. They found nothing unusual through the bulk of the genome, BUT “… what sets it apart is the regulatory region… the ‘control room’ of the virus… which is the region where replication of the virus is triggered“. “In this virus it looks like someone entered the control room… as if someone entered, opened the closets and threw everything out of them, flipped chairs – and if it were a natural variant one could hardly imagine that such extensive mutations, insertions, deletions, various single-nucleotide mutations could happen accidentally and that the virus wouldn’t die during this process, because the virus doesn’t let anything touch this control room.” She goes on to say that while mutating structural proteins are quite acceptable as they have no impact on the virus’ survival, the genome’s regulatory region, the control room, must remain free of mutation. As any mutation could kill it, they happen rarely, incrementally and only to the virus’ advantage. With a scientist’s typical understatement, she concludes that what happened in the SAR-2’s control room is “atypical”. When the interviewer asks in closing whether even more dangerous viruses are being created in secret labs, she replies “I don’t even want to imagine that, but it’s certainly possible.“.

    It’s as if this virus is running a hitherto unseen, even now barely glimpsed source code so nobody knows what drives it or how it will behave. The mutations that split the virus into A, B, & C strains and their various permutations in their travels around the world are just normally expected viral mutations of no great import in themselves. Continuing the software analogy, they’re just apps, morphing as they run but present no danger to the genomic integrity of the virus. They may be of great epidemiological interest, but they’re peripheral in the sense that the crime, the hitherto impossible mutation occurred inside the virus’ “inner sanctum” where mutations aren’t normally allowed.

    Dr. Pekova hopes to be looking at the SARS-2 “control room” with great intensity in the coming weeks. We can only hope that her work won’t suddenly be de-funded or the results buried due to political considerations. She seems to be the only one speaking about what would appear to be a crucial distinction between genomic regions, but if the distinction is as crucial as I think it is the question whether SARS-2 is natural or has been engineered should be settled soon.

    A genetically engineered, or trashed and rebuilt “control room” has enormous epidemiological implications as the naturally occurring, and expected “triggers” that control viral replication have been short-circuited. Perhaps that’s why symptoms vary from nothing at all, to interstitial pneumonia, to brain, nerve and organ damage. Why some patients go from mild, to critical, to even death in hours. Perhaps that’s why it seems to be able to circulate under the radar through a population only to explode without warning. Perhaps the Chinese realized its unpredictability shortly after they mapped the genome, and why they escalated a local medical emergency all the way to the Politburo and locked down so dramatically. Perhaps that’s why they’re pushing back against the Mighty Wurlitzer that the White House has fired up in its attempt at pre-emptive self-defence.

    When the nature/nurture question’s been settled, the common mutations that encode structural proteins will indeed gain critical interest in tracking down the lab it came from, but they ain’t the most legally interesting thing right now. If it’s natural, the notion of liability blurs – a regrettable facet of life in a globalized world. If it was engineered in the course of legitimate research and escaped the lab, liability becomes an issue. If it was engineered and used as a weapon, it’s war, and if the currently accepted mutation genealogy holds, it looks to have backfired horribly.

    • Agree: Tor597
    • Thanks: Iris, FB, Parfois1, Vidi
  79. Truth3 says:
    @Patient Zero

    Were you in NC?

    Near Ft. Bragg?

  80. Erebus says:
    @Iris

    Thanks Iris. Important information.

    In other terms, the original Strain B would have been tailored to East Asians or to their environment.

    Or more accurately, to the epidemiological environment which includes the East Asian populations and available favourable transmission pathways. It may also be the case that the “tail” of the B Strain genome exhibited a temporary “stability” (in Dr. Pekova’s) terms that it lost after a couple of less fortuitous mutations “de-stabilized” it.

    Frankly, I suspect that time plays a role here as well. It went nova in Hubei, and almost immediately appeared in force in neighbouring countries, whereas Italy’s disaster started almost a month later.

  81. Pindos says:
    @Nuncle

    The Epoch Times is a multi-language newspaper[2] founded in 2000 by John Tang and a group of Chinese Americans associated with the Falun Gong spiritual movement.

  82. @Tor597

    Well for the short term panic where the elephant hides from the mouse, sure – but it doesn’t take out their working human capital, nor bring workers back home to look after sick children – quarantined old people is not a weapon to stop an economy, it is a weapon to cut pension and healthcare bills!!

    I’m not saying it’s impossible, and NATO are exceptionally farsical often, but even if this did run through China and kill x% of the population, it would have improved their demographics. Honestly I’d put more money this weapon being intended for the US and allied nations, but they just decided to spike China too – otherwise they’d have been in a position like the US after WWII.

    The push to get supply chains – at least for necessary production like food, medicine – yes, that would be a decent motive. But would they do so much better if there was a plague and production was in home nations? Labourers are stuck at home, so no one to pick fruit for example. Nobody buying cars when sitting at home, whether made in China or the US. The argument that it would be easier to restart a national supply chain instead of a global one is reasonable though.. Perhaps, maybe its Donald’s 444D chess again! 😀

    • Agree: Tor597
  83. Agent76 says:

    Apr 4, 2020 ΝYC-ΙCU DR unknowingly describes the EFFECTS of 60GHz on patients.

  84. Realist says:
    @BobX

    When Gleimhart Mantooso agrees with you…you have reached rock bottom.

    • Agree: Spanky
  85. @Godfree Roberts

    COVID-19 virus came to California last fall and was misidentified as a bad outbreak of the flu[, bro.]

  86. Realist says:
    @NPleeze

    Bobx sounds freakishly like Bobdisqus…an obnoxious, dumbass from Steve Hsu’s Information Processing

  87. Iris says:
    @Tor597

    The most important oddity thrown up by the study is that the original A strain spread through West Coast USA despite not being the most prevalent in China, where the B strain is the primary cause of infection.

    Furthermore, if we take the official “Wuhan virus” narrative for correct, the A Strain virus would have behaved as a demanding tourist, and out of the Wuhan major transport hub, would have selectively travelled to the US West Coast only, ignoring all other destination.

    (The A strain can be found in Australia too, but by very the admission of Australian PM, 80% of the cases are imported from the US).

    The overwhelming prevalence of the initial A Strain in the US West Coast is a blatant indication that the pandemic did not start in China.

    Here is damage-control orientated article by the Daily Mail, to read with a big pinch of salt, as it is oriented to brush away the logical conclusion above:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8204255/There-THREE-separate-types-coronavirus.html

    • Replies: @Tor597
  88. Ron Unz says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    Stanford Researchers Say Californians May Have Herd Immunity to COVID-19

    Stanford University researchers believe the COVID-19 virus came to California last fall and was misidentified as a bad outbreak of the flu. Now, it’s possible millions of Californians were exposed to the virus and have developed herd immunity.

    It’s always advisable to evaluate the quality of a “researcher” before quoting his shocking claims…

    The “Stanford researcher” in question is Victor Davis Hanson, a fanatical Neocon associated with the Hoover Institution, and someone with absolutely no scientific or medical background. For nearly two decades, he’s been endlessly ranting about Islamofascists, ChiComs, and everything else along those lines.

    Now, based upon zero evidence, he has suddenly claimed in National Review that most Californians were already infected with the Coronavirus. Thus, the very low CA fatalities had nothing to do with the early lockdown by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom and suggests that Trump was right all along.

    Naturally, this shocking theory was very widely promoted by FoxNews and other rightwing outlets, but viewed with extreme “skepticism” by all medical and scientific experts.

    Unfortunately, your gullible acceptance of the random spouting-off theories of some ignorant, fanatical Neocon may be quite indicative of much of the other evidence and analysis provided in this article…

    • Agree: acementhead
    • Thanks: FB
    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    , @utu
    , @NPleeze
    , @Ship Track
  89. Ron Unz says:
    @Ron Unz

    may be quite indicative of much of the other evidence and analysis provided in this article…

    I suppose I should be more explicit…

    I’m absolutely no medical expert, and all I know about the Coronavirus is what I’ve read about it. But although most things are disputed, one thing that almost everyone seems to agree about is that it is *extremely* infectious. For example, most experts believe that in America a tiny handful of infected individuals in early/mid January had produced something like 250,000 infections just seven weeks later. Similarly, hundreds of thousands of Italian infections are supposedly traced back to a single visitor from Germany a couple of months earlier. The Chinese certainly recognize the extremely infectious nature of the virus. Okay.

    But in your piece, you are arguing that the virus was already circulating in various parts of Virginia in June and July of 2019. If so, wouldn’t we have expected to see many hundreds of thousands of Americans infected by later that year, producing exactly the same sort of gigantic health crisis we’re now facing? You seem to be suggesting that the CDC tried to “cover up” the outbreak. But once thousands or tens of thousands of Americans were dying, wouldn’t that cover-up have failed?

    It’s obviously possible that some random mutation suddenly made the virus either far deadlier or vastly more contagious. But except for that possibility, backed by no evidence, I just can’t see how the virus could have been circulating in the US almost a year ago without anyone noticing the consequences.

    There certainly seem to be many puzzles about both the nature of the virus and its origins. But its extremely rapid spread in any community seems one of the few things about which everyone agrees.

    For these reasons, I just don’t see how the theory advanced in this article makes any sense at all.

  90. @Ron Unz

    But its extremely rapid spread in any community seems one of the few things about which everyone agrees.

    Please see my comment (#25):
    Must distinguish between early prototype and enhanced version.

  91. @nsa

    The good old United States of America was built up largely by the folks of protestant stock from the British isles and had it stayed that way then none of this shit would have happened … you can blame the speculators for ruining the best country in the world. Now let me hear three loud cheers from you … USA, USA, USA!

  92. Alden says:
    @Anon

    Hart Island NYC is where the city buries unclaimed bodies and bodies whose friends and relatives can’t pay for a funeral.

    The burials aren’t done every day. The burials are done a couple times a week depending on how many bodies there are.

    This isn’t some Year of the Plague mass burial. It’s just the regular weekly or biweekly burials.

  93. anon[372] • Disclaimer says:

    In comment 95 Dr. Unz is arguing that rapid spread of the virus makes it implausible that it simmered in the population for a long time. There are a couple of problems with this.

    This argument presumes that doubling time or exponential growth is an immutable property of the virus. Even if the virus does not mutate, this is not the case. The spread of infections is a stochastic process of transition probabilities among several ergodic states, (let’s base it loosely on overwhelmed NY:)

    healthy to sick: .006
    sick to dead: .2
    sick to recovered: .8
    recovered to immune: .94
    immune to sick: .0002

    Now you can put these in a matrix and invert it to find the steady state, and you can iteratively multiply the transition matrix by a vector of who’s in what state. The result is not exponential. It’s the product of a markov chain. The growth rate of infection changes continuously, accelerating, then converging to an asymptote as you approach the steady state. It increases quite slowly at first.

    This variability is compounded if the virus mutates. And on a novel virus’ first introduction to a new species it’s likely poorly adapted, floundering around for toeholds on your unfamiliar epithelial cells. As the virus adapts, it may spread more quickly, kill more quickly, or abate to a sniffle, or some of each.

    So treating the growth rate as a constant is superficially plausible but it elides two separate stochastic processes. In the real world it is not dispositive.

    • Replies: @utu
  94. @Realist

    There were some cases of pneumonic plague reported at the same time. I wonder if there was some mix-up in the news.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/13/world/asia/plague-china-pneumonic.html

    • Replies: @Realist
  95. utu says:
    @Erebus

    “…one could hardly imagine that such extensive mutations, insertions, deletions, various single-nucleotide mutations could happen accidentally and that the virus wouldn’t die during this process…”

    Her argument is frequently used by creationists that the evolution form A=>B must pass through intermediate stages C (A=>C=>B ) that can be deleterious to survival. The argument is not an iron clad because it’s probabilistic like everything in genetics. The key word here is ‘must’. There are too many paths from A=>B to know all about them and their improbabilities. So, while I like what she said, I am afraid she would back off if she was challenged by somebody who knows as much as she does but is not keen on her conclusion.

    New virus makers could go around the problem altogether by creating the intermediate stage viruses and introduce them into the natural environments (like bats and pangolins) and then having them discovered by a ‘friendly’ scientist and published and cataloged in the virus directory. So when the suspect new virus is studied, its natural antecedents would be waiting in the catalog to be found to show a plausible natural evolutionary path.

    I doubt that she write a paper about it and if somebody did it won’t see the light of day.

    • Replies: @skrik
    , @FB
    , @Erebus
  96. glib says:

    Great post Godfree. The only thing it lacks are the numerous references to scientific papers that point to an earlier origin of the virus (the main thesis of your post). I did a quick & dirty job of adding a couple in the link below but there are at least three papers, from France UK and Italy, also pointing to an earlier origin (and it was done through a variety of analysis methods, so a fairly robust conclusion). If I do the leg work will you add the papers to your article as a single footnote?

    http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2020/04/sicky-covid-19-board.html

  97. @Stan d Mute

    There are other uses for viruses than as weapons. There are apparently, researchers working illegally (Illegally, because the viruses involved are so dangerous) in secure labs, trying to find viruses to make a vaccine against AIDS. The point of doing such research, in spite of the dangers of such research, is that the person or team who successfully develops such a vaccine, will be multi-millionaires.

  98. utu says:
    @Ron Unz

    “…gullible acceptance…” – It was not just his gullibility that made him believe it but his strong confirmation bias. Almost always the weakness of mind is entangled with the weakness of character.

    • Replies: @NPleeze
  99. Realist says:
    @last straw

    There were some cases of pneumonic plague reported at the same time. I wonder if there was some mix-up in the news.

    Possibly, but you will be attacked for going against the official US government proclamations.

    • Replies: @Spanky
  100. Truth3, re 84, no, I was not. I think we will find multiple introductions in spring 2019 or earlier. You wonder, does the raw data of last year’s false-negative FilmArray panels still exist? The physical samples would be gone, of course, but there’s plenty of storage capacity for the raw genetic results. They might show common anomalies for us mystery cases.

  101. skrik says:
    @utu

    Most probably only one single ‘entity’ on the planet that could prompt/make/deploy such a vile virus. rgds

  102. NPleeze says:
    @utu

    LOL, nobody has a higher bot army than the Evil Empire’s propaganda network. They combine humans with AI bots.

    In fact when I read message boards on sites like Breitbart, Inforwars, and the other AmeriNazi/ZioNazi sites, I tend to think about 95% of the posts are from poorly programmed AI bots. I mean, can humans REALLY be that stupid and ignorant?

    • Replies: @Iris
  103. NPleeze says:
    @utu

    Says the pervasively idiot troll with a massive yet primitive confirmation bias, which only steadily confirms that utu is a moronic troll of little moral substance, integrity or critical reasoning skills, and a fragile character and ego.

    • Agree: FB
    • Replies: @utu
  104. @Erebus

    Why does the Wuhan coronavirus genome end in aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa (33 a’s)?

    If you taught the children of a tribe of Talmudic Rabbi’s obsessed with gematria how to use Crispr, what kind of numbers games would they play with a Corona Virus? What kind of Amalek style revenge would they dream up?

  105. @Ron Unz

    I consider this “Virus” to be one part of a bio-weapon tool kit. The US military looted all German and Japanese bio-weapons and know how immediately after the war. They even unleashed forms of bio-weaponized syphilus on black soldiers in the ’50’s and the sprayed the Bay Area with various toxins and bacteria in the 1950’s and 1960’s. The LSD wave of mind poisoning, originating out of Stanford and the Bay Area in the 1950’s as part of MKultra was also a form of bio-weapon.

    So I doubt anyone would argue that the US has a complete arsenal of bio-weapons. Since we know little about the real US bio-weapons programs, we must look to weapons programs we are aware of to draw comparisons. A predator drone, a F-35, a Nimitz aircraft carrier are all multi-purpose, as are most weapons in the US arsenal.

    It is therefore quite logical to assume that the US has more than one form of CV19, more that one form of delivery, more than one form of test kit, more than one form of antidote and/or vaccine.

    One very plausible explanation for Victor Hansen expressing a very common held view that there has been a very nasty flu/cold strain going around Ca and Wa for months is that it is true and that there was a pre-release of a milder virus. This could have also happened all over or on many other parts of the US.

    One way of using a CV19 tool kit would be to release a less lethal stain, perhaps even more contagious, among your population to build up herd immunity before you release the “Little Boy” bio-weapon on Wuhan (Nagasaki).

    This is all just SOP for the Talmudists.

    • Agree: Alfred, Tor597
    • Replies: @Tor597
  106. Cyrano says:

    I think that there could be a different dynamic at play here vis-a-vis the Corona. The news in the past few years have been full of stories about intellectual property theft by the Chinese.

    I think that the US wants to demonstrate to the world that it’s payback time. I mean look, it wasn’t a coincidence that Trump wanted to put a label on the good old Corona – “Made in China”.

    There was a purpose behind this. He wanted to teach the Chinese a lesson, that even though they are the ones that created the Corona, the US can steal their intellectual property and run the numbers higher than any country in the world.

    I think that they succeeded in this. As of today, US are the country with the highest numbers of Corona infections in the world, as well as fatalities. So take that China. US is still number one.

  107. utu says:
    @anon

    The growth rate of infection changes continuously, accelerating, then converging to an asymptote as you approach the steady state. It increases quite slowly at first.

    Probability of the growth slowing down and the process lingering on at a very low level so the number of infected individuals remain so low that is below the critical point for the process to take off exponentially into a major breakout is very small and only gets smaller with every additional infected individual. Time works against you. Basically you have two possibilities. The process either dies out or it takes off exponentially.

    Probability of major breakout is P=1-(γ/β)^k where
    k- is number of infectious individuals
    γ – recovery rate
    β – transmission rate

    If k increases P->1.

    You can run many trajectories to calculate the probability of the breakout not taking off and not dying out and remaining below radar (k very small) from September 2019 to January 2020 in America. And you may not invoke mutations as your deus ex machina.

  108. Zero Hedge is peddling the Epoch Times “Steele Dossier”

    ZH was banned from twitter a couple of months ago when it released an expose on the Bio research facility in Wuhan. Since that banning, ZH has been mounting a propaganda war against China parroting all the official CIA narratives. They have even sunk so low that now they even push the “China knew about how bad the virus was but didn’t tell the US”. It is clear that the US intelligence agencies were well aware of CV19 already before the end of 2019 and the virus is even named with 19 (Notice how CV19 has the 1 and the 9 like 9/11?).

    But ZH keeps needling China like I have never seen them do to Russia or Iran in the past. Something has changed there….

    • Agree: Spanky
    • Replies: @emersonreturn
    , @Alfred
  109. NPleeze says:
    @Ron Unz

    Thus, the very low CA fatalities had nothing to do with the early lockdown by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom and suggests that Trump was right all along.

    Now that is utterly hilarious and, of course, non-sensical.

    The NY lockdown started on March 20, 2020, and California’s lockdown started on … wait for it … March 20, 2020. LOL!!!!!! At that time, NY had 8,299 confirmed cases and CA had 1,095 confirmed cases (though CA had done far less testing so who knows). Why is it, that at that time, CA had less cases? Something to do with authoritarian martial law “being on the minds” of Californians and saving them from imminent death?

    There are a number of differences between the two states, and having lived a long time in both, the two that strike me as most relevant are: East Coast has a far higher population density with vastly more person-to-person contact while going about daily business (from walking on crowded sidewalks, to riding on the subway, to living in highrises and sharing hallways/elevators/parking garages, to the local shops, to congregating in neighborhood parks, etc.). Also, California is much less inter-generational within a home, and really the greatest contagion risk is a young person (who is immune, asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic) coming home and bringing the virus with him/her to infect his/her parents or grandparents.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
    , @Alden
  110. Iris says:
    @NPleeze

    LOL, nobody has a higher bot army than the Evil Empire’s propaganda network. They combine humans with AI bots.

    So very true. The UK’s Daily Mail is a good example too. Under any hot propaganda article, readers’ comments become suddenly very short and expeditious like a subliminal message, without any of the style specificities found with real human. These comments are of course always “Best rated” too, lol.

    • Agree: Spanky
  111. @glib

    Don’t fall for it, Godfree

    • Replies: @glib
  112. @Anonymous

    The Calvinist’s idea of fun is burning witches at the stake.

  113. utu says:
    @NPleeze

    “The great snare of the psychologist is the confusion of his own standpoint with that of the mental fact about which he is making his report. I shall hereafter call this the ‘psychologist’s fallacy’ par excellence.” – William James

    • Replies: @NPleeze
  114. Agent76 says:

    Apr 11, 2020 Sound Familiar? By
    Larken Rose

    A short, timely reading from my first book, “How To Be a Successful Tyrant,” which I finished writing over fifteen years ago.

  115. glib says:
    @ploni almoni

    why? my views, it is easy to see, are well aligned with Godfree. Papers can be found by anyone, it just takes time…

  116. Aqualung says:

    There is NO patient zero because this virus was discovered NOT manufactured.

    • Replies: @ploni almoni
  117. thetruth says:

    Something interesting happens. US CDC usually updated the estimated number of Flu deaths (including pneumonia) once a week. They just published the total number of estimated flu death between Oct. 1, 2019 to April. 4th, 2020, here is the link

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

    CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through April 4, 2020, there have been:
    24,000 – 62,000
    flu deaths

    I made a screen shot for the the numbers up to March 28, the number is almost identical, except the upper range is 1000 more. The new week revised down by 1000.

    CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 28, 2020, there have been:
    24,000 – 63,000
    flu deaths
    I put the screenshot here

    flu deaths up to March 28
    https://ibb.co/2FqnCBt

    so what is the conclusion here? at least for this one week, 100% of the so called Flu deaths are actually Covid-19 deaths. That is why the flu death number remains the same. The deaths counts are all under Covid-19. Then what about the previous numbers? Since US CDC has never started to test the Covid-19 until mid-March. Could they be ALL Covid-19 deaths, or at least a LARGE part of them were Covid-19 deaths? I guess no one knows for sure, but it is very possible!

    • Agree: Alfred
  118. Ron Unz says:
    @NPleeze

    Thus, the very low CA fatalities had nothing to do with the early lockdown by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom and suggests that Trump was right all along.

    Now that is utterly hilarious and, of course, non-sensical.

    The NY lockdown started on March 20, 2020, and California’s lockdown started on … wait for it … March 20, 2020. LOL!!!!!!

    No, I think you’re mistaken. Here’s an excerpt from the San Jose Mercury News analyzing California’s success:

    The Bay Area’s first-in-the-country orders for residents to stay home — starting March 17 — followed several days of increasing restrictions on public gatherings and were emulated by other California counties. On March 19, Gov. Gavin Newsom mandated that all 40 million Californians stay home unless they worked essential jobs. New York’s statewide stay-home order came March 22.

    But by then, New York’s cases had multiplied to 15,168 — 10 times the 1,536 in California at the time.

    https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/08/how-california-has-contained-coronavirus-and-new-york-has-not/

    Keep in mind that the SF Bay Area had been the California epicenter, and it had the first lockdown in the country, coming some five days before NY. Given the exponential spread of the infection, I’ve pointed out that a timing difference of just one week can plausibly produce a death-toll 25 times(!) greater:

    https://www.unz.com/runz/the-government-employee-who-may-have-saved-a-million-american-lives/

    I’m certainly not claiming that the only reason for CA doing so well relative to NY was the timing of the lockdowns, with urban density and mass-transit probably being additional factors. But I do believe that timing was the most important factor explaining why the per capita death rate in NY is more than 30x greater than CA.

    • Disagree: Aqualung, Ship Track
    • Replies: @NPleeze
  119. NPleeze says:
    @utu

    The fact that a chimpanzee like you can copy and paste a quote, without having the slightest inkling what it means, does not impress me that you are anything but a chimpanzee.

    • Replies: @FB
  120. What does the abbreviation CDC stand for?

  121. anon[396] • Disclaimer says:

    utu in 113, after accusing everyone of being Chinese per boilerplate CIA ad hominem procedures – because they didn’t agree with his words, words, words – now reacts to comment 99 by googling furiously for equations, equations, equations! Let’s look at his Dunning-Kruger stab at condescension:

    1. Put up a simplified continuous analog of the discrete model outlined in 99; copy one with wowie-zowie Greek letters to make it look all harrd, zappa crappa, foo!; talk like there are no assumptions embedded in the formulation itself, to fool readers with limited mathematical maturity.

    2. Make vague qualitative arguments about your number-free equations; do not back them up with examples or do the work of sensitivity analysis, or you might make arithmetic errors, and that might compromise your preeminent internet cred as a disembodied voice who argues in 300 different varieties of nyah-nyah-nyah; just assert without support that all possible quantified examples prove vague hand-waving phrases like ‘taking off.’

    3. call mutations a deus ex machina, which you don’t know how to pronounce or what it is, exackly, but it goes with the Greeky groove you’re in.

    4. Q.E.D.! Molon Labe! Veni viddy vichy! With nary a sequential argument or supported assertion. With shit for inductive logic. It’s good enough for governmint work!

  122. thetruth says:

    Chinese Researchers in Wuhan already went back to the Swab test for flu like patients between Oct. -Dec. 2019, and reexamined how many were Covid-19 positive. I would like to see the U.S. CDC can honestly go back to the US Flu like patients Swab test in Seattle, Boston, San Francisco, and NYC, to do a sampling reexamine, and to see how many of them were Covid-19 positive! My guess? Could be MORE than Wuhan, and could be Earlier than Wuhan TOO!

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0713-1

    SARS-CoV-2 detection in patients with influenza-like illness

    Wen-Hua Kong, Yao Li, Ming-Wei Peng, De-Guang Kong, Xiao-Bing Yang, Leyi Wang & Man-Qing Liu

    Nature Microbiology (2020)Cite this article

    Abstract

    Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was first reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in late December 2019. We re-analysed 640 throat swabs collected from patients in Wuhan with influenza-like-illness from 6 October 2019 to 21 January 2020 and found that 9 of the 640 throat swabs were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA by quantitative PCR, suggesting community transmission of SARS-CoV2 in Wuhan in early January 2020.

    The onset date of the earliest case (among those 9 of the 640 throat swabs were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA) was 4 January 2020, one week after the outbreak was reported by hospitals11.

    • Agree: NPleeze
  123. NPleeze says:
    @Ron Unz

    Let’s make a real timeline, shall we? I will use the data from Worldometers from The Way Back Machine, starting on March 18, the first day they provided a state-by-state breakdown:

    DATE NY CA Ratio
    03/18/20 2,499 831 33.25%
    03/20/20 8,299 1,095 13.19%
    03/23/20 20,875 1,828 8.76%
    03/26/20 33,013 3,158 9.57%
    03/29/20 59,513 5,846 9.82%
    04/01/20 83,712 8,704 10.40%
    04/04/20 113,704 12,639 11.12%
    04/07/20 138,836 16,413 11.82%
    04/11/20 172,358 21,374 12.40%

    So you can see, the ratio between the two states went down a lot between 3/18 and 3/20 of detected cases. But, as you well know, this has absolutely nothing to do with the “lock-down” order, since the incubation period (and certainly to get to the point of being so sick that they will actually give you a test) is far longer than 2 days! In fact, the low point of the ratio, on 3/23, was still long before any effect from the Bay area totalitarian martial law would have been noticeable.

    And what else do we see? That ever since then, i.e. during the periods where the 3 extra days of totalitarianism should have shown their “positive impact”, the ratio simply continued to grow! Oh well, so much for that hypothesis!

    So, again, your conclusions based on obviously extremely flawed numbers – as if the number of “detected” cases had any meaningful relationship to the number of actual infections – fails the test.

    In fact there is no actual scientific evidence at all that lock-downs have saved anyone, you can only come to such a conclusion (you remember the scientific method, right?) by having one group that is locked down and one that is not and compare the different spread rates and death rates, presumably over a long period of time.

    As I have noted several times before, the only real “study” where the virus was allowed to infect, for weeks, everyone, was the Diamond Princess. And we know the results of that – about 0.25% of the population (much older than the general population) died. If we apply that to New York, with a population of 19.3 million, that would mean 48,250 dead – again, assuming that every single person in NY was exposed to the virus for weeks. NY already has a death toll of 8,627, supposedly, and its cases are still rising on a rapid basis (almost 20,000 new cases, or about 16% of the total, in the last two days), even 3 weeks after martial law was imposed.

    By the way, what does the massive increase in cases 3 weeks after imposition of martial law say about your love of that absolutely tyrannical measure, when it is being claimed that the vast majority of people get sick within 5 days and 99% get sick within 14 days?

    • Agree: Brás Cubas, Alfred
    • Replies: @Saggy
  124. Spanky says:
    @Realist

    Bullshit… Rather, you’ll be questioned and called out for uncritically accepting highly unlikely conspiracy theories absent facts and evidence which provide robust support for said theory.

    So far, among numerous questionable logical and factual fallacies, I’ve seen posters here using preliminary data — data subject to change normally as more and better quality information becomes available — as a basis for asserting Covid-19 numbers are being both inflated and blown out of proportion. Then, when that data is updated, implying that a conspiracy is afoot effecting those changes. No allowance is ever made for clearly posted warnings about incomplete information due to lag times in reporting (which are cited as several weeks in one case) which accompany those data.

    Most of the time it looks like these posters are so attached to their beliefs that they are willing to goal seek any data which might buttress their position without regard to quality.

    As I’ve noted before, such posters uncritically quote official numbers and statistics when it benefits their conclusions, but will turn on a thin dime and declare that same, and other, information deliberately misleading propaganda covering up a vast conspiracy if it contradicts them.

    Please excuse my skepticism about government, mainstream and alt media, and anonymous internet commenters. After all, several years ago I read with interest government invitations to bid on contracts seeking collaborative multi-user (500 seats, with 10 personas per seat in one case) software capable of anonymously and undetectably posting comments on social media…

  125. @Juniper

    MDs are not scientist, as any scientist will tell you. They are clinicians. Dr. Redfield may have had contact with virologists but he was not qualified in that field and, as far as I can tell, published nothing in it.

    • Replies: @Realist
    , @Alden
    , @vot tak
    , @Anon
  126. vot tak says:

    Coronavirus has been ‘freewheeling’ in California since December, says government official

    https://www.rt.com/usa/485586-coronavirus-in-california-longer/

    “Dr. Jeff Smith, a physician and executive officer in the Santa Clara County government, told the Los Angeles Times on Saturday that the Covid-19 coronavirus “was freewheeling in our community and probably has been here for quite some time” before officials took notice in late January.

    Based on data from local and federal agencies, Smith told the paper that the coronavirus was active for “a lot longer than we first believed,” probably since “back in December.”

    California’s first case – a man in his 50s – was found to have traveled from Wuhan, China, when he turned up in an Orange County hospital late that month.

    When it came to tracing the second case in the Bay Area several weeks later, medics were unable to discover how the patient – a woman who had been ill for weeks – had come in contact with the virus. “That means the virus is in the community already — not, as was suspected by the CDC, as only in China and being spread from contact with China,” Smith said.

    Smith believes that an unusually severe flu season masked the spread of Covid-19. “Symptoms are very much like the flu. If you got a mild case of COVID, you didn’t really notice,” he explained. “You didn’t even go to the doctor.” Indeed, data from the CDC shows that since early December, hospitalizations for “Influenza-like Illness” stayed higher than at any point during the last decade, save for the unusually bad 2017-2018 flu season.

    Even as recently as late February, Dr. Pritish Tosh, an infectious disease specialist at the Mayo Clinic, told Americans that “If they have a fever and respiratory illness, they should assume this is influenza unless they’ve had recent travel to China.” Until March, influenza was considered the more pressing threat to public health in the US, not the coronavirus.

    According to the LA Times, researchers from the National Institute of Health are now scouring blood banks across California looking for antibodies in samples of donated blood. These antibodies could provide evidence that people had been catching – and recovering from – Covid-19 long before authorities noticed the outbreak.

    Three months after California recorded its first cases of coronavirus, just under 19,500 people in the state have fallen ill to the deadly pathogen, and more than 540 are dead. More than half a million cases have been diagnosed in the US in total, and more than 20,000 people have died. The United States now has the highest number of Covid-19 deaths of any country in the world.”

    This article dovetails well with what Roberts has speculated on in his article about the virus epidemic initially being masked by other diseases and not publicly recognized for what it was till later, after it had spread fairly widely. Smith speculated the epidemic onslaught could go back to Dec. 2019, but it could also go further back. The blood sample testing might prove this.

    • Replies: @Wally
    , @Alden
    , @Iris
    , @Wally
    , @Alfred
  127. @Ron Unz

    Damn that ‘Stanford researcher’!

    You’re approaching this as a scientific problem, Ron.

    I’m approaching it as a crime, perpetrated by people who control most of the country’s labs, researchers and media.

  128. @glib

    Gladly. That’s just what we need. (But filter out ‘Stanford researchers’)

    • Replies: @glib
  129. bjondo says:

    Is the search for patient zero or agent zero?

    5ds

  130. Realist says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    MDs are not scientist, as any scientist will tell you.

    That is a fact that should never be overlooked.

  131. @Ship Track

    agree…the site is now unreadable, distasteful & shameless. i believe it’s openly preparing the populace for war with china.

  132. Spanky says:
    @Erebus

    Thanks… Agree/Thanks buttons all used up.

  133. Nuncle says:
    @dogbumbreath

    George Webb is a really weird guy who has put out a huge amount of disinformation over the years, so I’d be wary of anything he says.

  134. @Ron Unz

    What if there are man made different strains with different levels of infectiousness? Deadliness? That would explain it.

    This can only be answered once the virus and it’s strains are fully mapped out if there are any.

    Robert’s theory can also be refuted by simply testing the 300 US personnel who joined the Wuhan games.

    • Replies: @NPleeze
  135. Wally says:
    @Tor597

    said:
    “It is easier to sneak something in because they don’t go through the same type of airport screening.”

    Chinese airport screening for a virus they don’t know about?

  136. Anonymous[114] • Disclaimer says:

    Just checked today’s latest statistics for the biggest population state, California 330 million, but probably more because of all the illegal immigrants.

    330 million people, 541 deaths so far, 19,472,00 cases mostly not serious enough to be hospitalized.

    Let’s have a global wide masquerade ball, The Masque of the Red Death. We’ll dance, drink and screw all night and commit mass suicide as the sun rises. ,

    We’re all gonna dieeee! And enough with the quadruple, quintuple octocuple exponent math. Just regular exponents please.

    • Replies: @vot tak
    , @Ron Unz
  137. Art says:

    Speaking of searching for coronavirus – we are paying for 17 US spy agencies – where is the CIA on China CV.

    Why do we not know what is going on in China.

    Does anyone truly believe that China has wiped out the CV – as they claim?

    The permanent security state is failing America again.

  138. Wally says:
    @vot tak

    said:
    “More than half a million cases have been diagnosed in the US in total, and more than 20,000 people have died. The United States now has the highest number of Covid-19 deaths of any country in the world.”

    – Yeah sure.

    Hospitals Paid Extra to List Patients as COVID19 & 3X as Much if the Patient on Ventilator: https://principia-scientific.org/hospitals-paid-extra-to-list-patients-as-covid19-3x-as-much-if-the-patient-on-ventilator/
    exc.: “Senator Dr. Scott Jensen: Right now Medicare is determining that if you have a COVID-19 admission to the hospital you get $13,000. If that COVID-19 patient goes on a ventilator you get $39,000, three times as much. “

    CDC Tells Hospitals: No Test Needed, Just List CV-19 as “Assumed” Cause of Death: https://principia-scientific.org/cdc-tells-hospitals-no-test-needed-just-list-cv-19-as-cause-of-death/

  139. Nuncle says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    But nothing on how that person became infected?

  140. Alden says:
    @vot tak

    According to the omnipotent * God free Roberts that man who traveled to S California from Wuhan China was not Chinese and not Chinese American

    He was a blue eyed White American devil of a triple secret American bio warfare agent who’d remained in Wuhan after the military olympics to sprinkle the virus all over Wuhan, including nursery schools and maternity wards.

    To describe UNZ since about March 12, the Word credulous comes to mind.

    * omnipotent = all knowing

    • Troll: vot tak
    • Replies: @Seraphim
  141. anon[386] • Disclaimer says:

    If Rand disclosed USA’s one and only weak spot in 2012, the probability that Chinese intelligence read that report is pretty high, correct?

    And there is also the fact that US, EU and China have been cooperating with these biowafare/biodefense activities.

    And then there is the fact that it was a Chinese scientist that first weaponized a coronovirus.

    So this whole “Patient Zero” crap is meaningless b.s. (for all concerned).

    Is it out of the realm of imagiation to think PLA would first release a virus in US and then in China? Chinese have far greater freedom of movement in USA than an American does in Communist China.

    ALL of these countries that works in ‘function gain’ and ‘bioweapons’ are responsible for this mess.

    ALL of these countries MUST pay reparations to other nations that do not engage in such high risk, if not unethical, scientific research.

  142. Iris says:
    @vot tak

    Two recent genetic studies, from the UK and the US, have reconstructed “evolutionary paths” of COVID-19 in humans using Phylogenetic Network techniques.

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20056929v1
    https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117

    They came up with the same conclusions regarding the spread of the pandemic in the US:

    – The NY area was mostly infected from Europe, by a B strain deriving from an earlier B strain that was predominant in the Wuhan epidemic.
    – The West Coast, on the other hand, has been infected by an A strain, a mutation that preceded and generated the Wuhan B strain.

    The virus’ strains in California and NY are not the same, with the NY B strain likely to be more lethal as it has undergone more mutations.

    It cannot be ascertained when the epidemic really started in California, or how lethal the California A strain is compared to Wuhan’s as the critical question of Patient 0 is an international relations’ hot potato. (The UK lead geneticist estimates that Strain A could have appeared as early as September 2019).

    • Thanks: vot tak
    • Replies: @gay troll
  143. CHINESE WUHAN VIRUS. I am in favor of an end to all immigration and trade with China. Fuck the Han and Fuck the Commie Scum Author of this trash. Lol

    • Troll: Seraphim
    • Replies: @annamaria
  144. Alden says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    And thus says a man who hasn’t written a truthful, factual word about this year’s strain of flu which has caused fewer deaths than last year’s strain of flu.

    You’re not lecturing expats at a Chinese cultural center you know.

    • Troll: Godfree Roberts
  145. FB says: • Website
    @Erebus

    Thanks E…for an outstanding contribution here (among a blizzard of diarrhea from the usual UNZ retards…)

    Very insightful information you have dug up…

  146. FB says: • Website
    @utu

    What a moron you are…but you already know that don’t you…?

    Dr. Pekova’s ‘argument’ has nothing whatsoever to do with what you ascribe to it…as usual, your diarrhea is only getting in the way of intelligent discussion here…

  147. anon[386] • Disclaimer says:

    The other issue with this article’s analysis is the matter of illnesses in 2019 in USA.

    For the sake of argument, let’s accept that the nursing home outbreaks were contained due to the measures taken. But those kids with lung problems were not in nursing home and certainly no containment effort was undertaken. And considering the demographics, can we agree that those vapers cum Covid-19 infected most likely shared quite a bit of bodily fluids in a promiscuous manner?

    If those vaping cases were Covid-19, then this is great news. From August 2019 (when the vaping cases were reported) to now with an “unchecked transmission’, we should have a huge number of hospitalized due to Covid-19. But that simply did not happen, so either the R0 must be fairly low, or, that was something else. If former, then ALL of these states, including CCP, are lying about this pandemic, and if latter, it has nothing to do with Covid-19.

  148. Seraphim says:
    @Alden

    ‘Omnipotent’ means ‘all powerful’. All knowing is ‘Omniscient’. Both are names of God referring to distinct ‘qualities’ of God.
    Correct use of words is the first rule of logic.
    The first carrier of the virus was a blue-eyed female, who traveled from America to Wuhan, by bycicle. As it happened she was in contact with Fort Detrick.

    • Replies: @Alden
  149. Spanky says:
    @anastasia

    Might try this site:

    https://covidtracking.com/data

    Scroll down to individual states for Hospitalized, ICU and Ventilator numbers… The data is terribly incomplete (most states are not providing all of it, if any) but some states are better than others and Arkansas is simply outstanding, comparatively, in its reporting.

  150. mcohen says:

    Also worth a sniff and scratch.china is playing with fire by not respecting the wildlife.

    https://www.virosin.org/

  151. vot tak says:
    @Anonymous

    “Just checked today’s latest statistics for the biggest population state, California 330 million, but probably more because of all the illegal immigrants.

    330 million people, 541 deaths so far, 19,472,00 cases mostly not serious enough to be hospitalized.”

    Either some knuckle-dragger forgot to take its psychiatric meds or this was written by a low quality software program. 😀

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  152. FB says: • Website
    @NPleeze

    Please…calling the moron ‘utu’ a chimpanzee is a dreadful insult to the noble simian…

  153. vot tak says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    I would add that those with specialist training, such as doctors, lawyers, microbiologists, etc. who select a career in the u.s. military are usually bottom of the barrel material in their fields.

  154. Ron Unz says:
    @Anonymous

    Just checked today’s latest statistics for the biggest population state, California…541 deaths so far… cases mostly not serious enough to be hospitalized.

    We’re all gonna dieeee! And enough with the quadruple, quintuple octocuple exponent math. Just regular exponents please.

    Sure, California’s doing fine…mostly because of Dr. Sarah Cody!

    But if you were living in New York, you’d have a different perspective. Given all the endless disputes about over-counting and under-counting Coronavirus deaths, the NYT just sat down and produced a chart showing *total* monthly deaths for NYC going back 20 years:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html

    Note the dramatic spike in April. Also note that the chart ends on April 4th, before the daily deaths really got going. When they next update the chart in a week or two, the spike will be enormous.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if April deaths end up running 1,000% above normal, and that’s despite the lockdown. A highly-contagious disease that raises NYC death rates by 1,000% seems like a pretty big deal to me…

  155. vot tak says:

    Lotto tickets are OK, but not seeds? Residents baffled after Michigan bans purchases of ‘non-essential’ items

    https://www.rt.com/usa/485572-michigan-seeds-sale-ban-coronavirus/

    “Governor Gretchen Whitmer announced in a public address that “essential” businesses such as grocery stores will be restricted in what they are allowed to offer to their customers.

    “If you’re not buying food, medicine, or other essential items, you should not be going to the store,” she said. Big-box retailers such as Walmart were ordered to shutter entire sections of their stores – such as furniture, carpeting, plant nurseries, paint, and garden centers – beginning on April 10.

    The state’s strict lockdown measures mean residents will be stuck at home for the start of spring, but those who were hoping to plant a vegetable garden to help pass the time – or get some fresh air – are fresh out of luck.

    Outraged shoppers have posted photographs of roped-off shelves of seeds. (See the posts reprinted at the article link)

    The policy quickly caught the attention of local media, which pointed out a number of bizarre inconsistencies. “In-store purchases of Michigan Lottery tickets are still permitted, but buying a can of paint or a bag of seeds is off limits,” observed the Detroit Free Press.

    Small businesses have also been hit hard by the new provision. Bob Kuszmaul, a wholesale grower for nearly 40 years, told the Detroit News that his business was on the brink of going bust. He is part of a group of business owners and state lawmakers who have called on the governor to ease the new restrictions.

    Michigan isn’t alone in its puzzling anti-Covid measures. Vermont, Indiana, Colorado, and Missouri have imposed similar rules barring stores from selling “non-essential” items, leading to similar anger about what is – and isn’t – deemed important for living.”

    What about rope?

    Something about the american that when given a bit of power over others, they simply cant resist being corrupt and fascist.

  156. Wally says:
    @vot tak

    Piling on:

    CDC: About 90% of ‘Coronavirus’ Hospitalized Patients Have Underlying Conditions / Comorbidities: https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/11/cdc-about-90-of-coronavirus-hospitalized-patients-have-underlying-conditions/

  157. ltlee1 says:
    @Tor597

    The phrase does not make sense when framed in rate of change. It makes more sense when viewed as more versus less mutation.

    The way I see it:

    Viruses can only undergo mutations when they have invaded living cells and reproduced themselves. More invasion-reproduction cycles will means more mutations in a probabilistic manner.

    If there is two randomly selected sample genomes of the same virus strain from two locations X and Y, and if sample genome from X has more mutations, then one could conclude that the virus strain had stayed in location X longer than it had stayed in location Y. Or, the virus had reached X before it had reached location Y.

    Rather than ‘type B mutating slowly in China but rapidly elsewhere’, I would say ‘Type B had been outside of China before its had reached China.”

  158. @GeeBee

    Putting a virus into a vape cart is certainly possible. However, unlikely: the vape is designed to heat the liquid to a high temperature. This would most likely destroy a virus or bacterium. Of course, they could dust the mouthpiece area with virus, I guess. We are deep in conspiracy land here. Already said above is a valid (to me) fault to the “Using vape carts to experiment on unwitting civilians” theory: where were the other infections? There weren’t any. All the people who got sick and/or died had been using vapes of dubious origin, using unapproved ingredients. It’s always fun to believe in the evil geniuses running the world and imperiling us. But in this case, let’s consider the simplest explanation. There are lots of teens and other dumb fucks that will do stupid things and risk their health. I was no better when I was a druggie teen, although vaping Vitamin E was not a thing 40 years ago.

  159. Alden says:
    @Seraphim

    Thanks.

    Alternatively the FT Detrick virus could have traveled to Wuhan via an ordinary crop duster small Cessna. Then sprayed over the city by the CIA pilot.

    There’s rumors on the internet the lab animal disposal workers in the Wuhan lab didn’t kill and cremate the no longer useful lab animals.

    The virus infected animals were sold to butchers at the nearby meat market.

    God free the CPR advertising man should investigate that.

    • Troll: NPleeze
  160. @Aqualung

    You have found your niche at last. You’ll go far.

  161. Anon[114] • Disclaimer says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    And you’re not an MD medical researcher, scientist either Mr Roberts. Just a shill for China and all the American industries who moved everything to China to benefit China and impoverish the average American.

    • Replies: @annamaria
    , @Daemon
  162. Erebus says:
    @utu

    New virus makers could go around the problem altogether by creating the intermediate stage viruses and introduce them into the natural environments (like bats and pangolins) and then having them discovered by a ‘friendly’ scientist and published and cataloged in the virus directory.

    Why would they unless it was developed to meet the requirements of a specific attack plan that included the introduction of an array of intermediary genetic red herrings across many generations of bats and pangolins? Has anyone claimed that such a plan exists, much less that it was actually stood up and executed? I haven’t heard of anyone doing so.

    Moreover, I’d think that any planners of biological attacks using viruses would never develop such a plan. Knowing at least as well as you do that everything about genetics is probabilistic, the possibility of blowback and/or discovery at every intermediate step would steer them towards a surprise attack with a fully weaponized virus. Like I said, nobody is claiming that, and we haven’t seen any evidence of it in this case.

    Dr. Pekova’s salient point is that neither she nor any other (published) researcher has ever seen, or can even imagine a natural sequence of mutations that would bring the virus’ “control room” from its originally stable state, through a total trashing on its way to arriving at a new stable state.

    That makes SARS-2 a never before seen outlier. Nature abhors outliers.

    BTW, that also explains why the Nature article purporting to show that SARS-2 couldn’t come from a laboratory because no computer model would suggest the kinds of mutations Dr. Pekova is talking about to occur, is itself a red herring.

    As anybody with any experience using them knows, all computer models operate within a set of boundary conditions. Some are set by the user, and some by the authors of the software. As such, some or even all of them can be changed.

    Speaking metaphorically (and with gross oversimplification), if one changes the genetic computer model’s boundary conditions from “Natural Mutation Processes Only” to allowing “Arbitrary Mutation at Will”, presumably one can do what one wants and the model generates the results.

    I’ve often done similar with computer models when trying to “stretch the envelope” of something I’m working on. Genetics is an order of magnitude more complex than what I do, but I can easily imagine a genetic researcher doing just that in the normal course. Most would die in the model, but occasionally a configuration will live and if it shows interesting characteristics in the model, the impetus to make one and see what it does in the physical world would be hard to resist.

    And with that, Dr. Peskova’s observations take on a whole new level of both probability and danger.

    • Replies: @utu
  163. NPleeze says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    Robert’s theory can also be refuted by simply testing the 300 US personnel who joined the Wuhan games.

    A lot of questions would be answered if:

    1) the US declassified the CDC and other reports having to do with the Fort Detrick breaches as well as all of the meetings centered around COVID-19 (there is not the slightest legitimate reason to have any of this classified – not one sliver of one)

    2) random testing on the entire population was done, in sufficient quantities to assure a fair knowledge of how widespread the virus is, using (fairly reliable) antibody testing rather than (very unreliable) RNA strand testing (there is absolutely no excuse why this hasn’t been done, except the government wants to keep deceiving the people)

    3) random testing of those who died from pneumonia in the last year

    4) deposition of anyone involved in preparing the Nov. 2019 intel reports relating to the alleged “pandemic” raging in Wuhan

    Of course, none of these things will happen, because the US government is an extremely corrupt, evil, malicious, tyrannical state that doesn’t give a fuck about anything but their own power and arrogance.

    I am absolutely disgusted with the awful US government, possibly the worst government on the entire planet.

  164. Alden says:
    @NPleeze

    There were county, school, business and facility lockdowns in California before March 20. San Francisco and Bay Area private schools all closed down sometime in the first week of March. And there’s a lot of private schools compared to the rest of the country. Public schools followed the week of the 9th. Individual schools and districts, not ordered by the state ED department.

    The huge Moscone convention center in SF received cancellations the first week of March and closed completely around the 12th? Several thousand permanent employees and hundreds of thousands of convention goers were thus protected. The numerous hotels that have conventions from all over the Bay Area closed down and sent all the convention workers home that same week.

    Our data center jobs in San Jose, Mountain View and San Francisco closed a couple days later. Many, many Bay Area businesses closed down the first 2 weeks in March I can see the main highway to San Francisco. It was fairly empty from about March 10 or 11 because of the early closings of many local schools businesses.

    I’ve been in the Bay Area since the first week of March. I have observed that the schools, conventions, public events, and many many businesses including ours closed a good 10 days before the governor ordered the lockdown.

    Private businesses, government agencies, individual public and private schools and school districts colleges all closed before the governors order. Conventions started cancellations around the first week of February. So the convention centers and hotels knew what was coming.

    School principals, business owners, unions government agency managers, employers we didn’t wait around for a governors order.

    • Replies: @NPleeze
    , @Ron Unz
  165. NPleeze says:
    @Ron Unz

    Note the dramatic spike in April

    And what a fraud that is. They deliberately left numerous points on the X axis clear so they could spike it on one day, exactly the type of malicious disinformation for which the malignant Jew York Slimes is notorious. At least their malicious lies won’t result in the deaths of millions in this case, in shallah.

    Also worth noting, there were no way 9,780 deaths from Apr. 1 – Apr. 4 in NYC. That is such an obvious fraud I’m surprised the Shitberger Slimes ran with it, normally they take some nominal measures to pretend they are reporting instead of just lying their asses off.

    By the way, what ever happened to those millions of starving folks in Venezuela the Shitberger Slimes was droning on and on about for months?

    • Agree: Realist
  166. Anonymous[567] • Disclaimer says:
    @vot tak

    I posted the California DPH and CDC statistics as of this morning April 10. 541 deaths, 19,472,00 cases most didn’t need hospitalization in a state of more than 330 million people.

    I wrote it. Please explain your assertion that I’m off my meds for quoting state and national public health statistics.

    • Replies: @Sparkon
  167. Saggy says: • Website
    @NPleeze

    And what else do we see? That ever since then, i.e. during the periods where the 3 extra days of totalitarianism should have shown their “positive impact”, the ratio simply continued to grow! Oh well, so much for that hypothesis!

    You don’t have to collect data to determine that 1+1 = 2, and you don’t need to collect data to determine that lockdowns and social distancing will reduce the spread of CV.

    • Replies: @NPleeze
  168. @BobX

    Two things could have happened.

    1. It really began in China because of bat soup or Wuhan lab negligence.

    2. Foreign agent released it in China.

    If #2, what nations or groups would most likely do that?

    Perhaps, Tibetans and Uighurs hate the Chinese enough to do that, but they got no science know-how. Vietnam and South East Asian nations have issues with China, but I don’t they’d dare; and they lack imagination. Besides, they are too close to China and would fear disease spreading to their own countries.
    Japanese have problems with China, but Japanese don’t do anything unless told by the US.

    I can’t imagine Russia, Iran, or Latin America doing it to China.

    I can’t imagine Trump and his bigshots cooking up such scheme either. Too crazy.

    But what about agents of rogue elements in the West? Consider how Arnon Milchan can walk around as a free man despite admitting to having stolen US secrets for Israel. There are rogue agencies that are allowed to operate freely in the West. Jews are the ‘made men’ of the West and can get away with all kinds of shit. To this day, the facts of USS Liberty aren’t part of the official story.

    There was some nonsensical story of some infected US military officer spreading it in China.
    If foreign agents did release it in China, it was not by an infected person but by an uninfected agent with a test tube. He spread it and then took off. (He could then have spread it in Iran shortly thereafter.)

    What does Jewish Power have to gain from this?

    1. By turning China into a pariah nation, it tarnishes Russia and Iran to be its allies. Also, it ruins China’s reputation all around the world. China is working on silk road and other projects as the world power that prefers to do business than invade other nations… unlike the Jewish-run US that operates on basis of “Is it Good for Jews?”
    But if China is associated with virus and disease, it becomes the evil dragon around the world. Jews hate Russia, and Russia on its own is a mere regional power. But Russia and China are a big deal. So, dealing a blow to China can undermine Russia(and Iran).

    2. By making Americans and other hate China as enemy #1, the growing anger and anxiety are diverted from Jews, Zionism, and Globalism. Or Globalism’s problems are blamed all on China. Look at the news, and you’d think Chinese tentacles are all over the US. It was Russia Russia Russia, and now it’s China China China. Both hysteria distracts us from the fact that US is ruled by Jews Jews Jews.

    3. It’s a good way to renege on debt. For several decades, Chinese have been making stuff and shipping them to the US in exchange of promises of paper currency, and China bought lots of US bonds with it, in effect financing US government. But if the Narrative is CHINA LIED, PEOPLE DIED, then the US can say all debts should be canceled since China owes stuff to the US and the world.

    So, if Covid was spread to China, it was not because some people in the US were infected first. Rather, it was by a foreign agent who used test tube of the virus and set it off in China… which would be so easy to do.

    But that is an IF. I still think it was bat soup or Wuhan Lab negligence.

    That said, given Jewish globalist behavior over the years, I wouldn’t put it past them to pull such crazy stunt.

    • Replies: @Miro23
    , @Amon
    , @Herald
    , @TRM
  169. NPleeze says:
    @Alden

    Doesn’t mean squat, the virus is still spreading. As fast as anywhere else, who had no lock-downs. Really you are just confirming the view that martial law is just totally ineffective, even though it imposes a massive cost.

    It is true schools started closing earlier, Mar. 9 I believe in the Bay Area, Catholic schools closing Mar. 12, and state schools on March 16.

    Several thousand permanent employees and hundreds of thousands of convention goers were thus protected

    LOL, do you have any evidence for that? Of course not. It’s just the hysteria speaking.

    • Replies: @Alden
  170. annamaria says:
    @BrokenheartAmerican

    A proper tree to bark up: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

    A plane carrying over a million surgical masks for the IDF landed in Ben-Gurion airport Tuesday night, in an operation ran by the US Department of Defense’s Delegation of Procurement.

    Remember: numerous American healthcare workers, first responders, and others are going without face masks because of dangerous shortages. The administration has invoked the Defense Production Act to prevent the export of surgical masks and gloves outside the country. …

    Why and how is someone in New York sending tens of thousands of masks and other equipment to the Israeli military? Especially when these have been so desperately needed by people in New York, which recently reported a record 800-plus coronavirus deaths in one day. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

    When will Americans have the courage to stand for their country? As for the US dependence on China, you should ask Mr. Summers, Mr. Rubin, and Mr. Clinton, how come that the US industries have been relocated to China and not a single person was punished for this anti-American scumming schema.

    The Pentagon Bio-weapons: http://armswatch.com/the-pentagon-bio-weapons/

  171. glib says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    Sorry, in the end (I reread all papers for which I had a link) only this paper shows that there was a lot of evolution compared with its closest relative

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1567134820300447

    That means a lot of time, and/or genetic editing, but it is far from conclusive. I am sure I saw an Italian paper early in the crisis spelling out that the virus had been around a lot longer than Feb. 21 (first case in Italy), but now I can not find it. The methodology was similar (genome statistical comparison) as the paper above (which does have already 70 citations). Perhaps it was retracted. so I am giving you almost no help.

  172. Sparkon says:
    @Anonymous

    Just checked today’s latest statistics for the biggest population state, California 330 million, […] We’re all gonna dieeee! And enough with the quadruple, quintuple octocuple exponent math. Just regular exponents please.

    I posted the California DPH and CDC statistics as of this morning April 10. 541 deaths, 19,472,00 cases most didn’t need hospitalization in a state of more than 330 million people.

    California’s population is 39.5 million, not 330 million, which is the population of the entire United States. There were 19, 472 cases in California, not 19.47 million. It doesn’t inspire confidence when you can’t get basic facts straight, meds or not.


    United States

    Confirmed 530,463
    Recovered 31,340
    Deaths 20,499

    California
    Confirmed 19,472
    Recovered 307
    Deaths 541

  173. annamaria says:
    @Anon

    “…all the American industries who moved everything to China to benefit China and impoverish the average American.”

    — There are a few Americans who have been enjoying huge offshore accounts and great country-houses and private jets thanks to “moving everything to China.” The industries moved to China according to the decisions made on the highest level among mega-financiers and governmental officials. Why don’t you address the deeds of the US “deciders” first instead of making a tantrum on this forum?
    The same deciders are always eager to make a nice gesheft on the war & weaponry: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3051683/us-must-gird-possible-military-clash-china-pentagon-official

    The United States must prepare for a possible military conflict with China by developing new weapons, strengthening ties with allies and improving the Pentagon’s efficiency, a senior Trump administration official said on Thursday.
    “The stakes of the challenge of conflict with China, in other words, are formidable,” said Chad Sbragia, deputy assistant secretary of defence for China. … Sbragia is the former US defence attaché in Beijing…

    The war profiteers are preparing to send American youth to die for the MIC/Pharma/Wall Street, while the local “patriots” oblige with the two minutes of hate towards China (Iraq, Afghanistan, Lybia, Russia, Iran, Syria…)

    This should be recited at schools at least weekly:

    Smedley D. Butler:
    War is a racket. It always has been. It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives. A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of the people. Only a small ‘inside’ group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few, at the expense of the very many. Out of war a few people make huge fortunes.

    • Agree: Spanky, Iris, Mehen
  174. cortesar says:
    @NPleeze

    I cannot agree with you that the propaganda is not effective, millions of hysteric females are easily manipulated with and that is the targeted group (not intelligent people)
    Let us break it down:
    1- As you pointed out they forged it in way that it looks that the spike happened instantaneously
    2- More importantly they moved goal posts. Up to a few days age they were forecasting hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions just a few weeks ago (Including Unz)
    When number fell well below they decided to use relative measures as “double” “triple” and such
    If one we have one death and next 2 that is double
    Comintern propagandist learned they stuff 100 years ago
    If they would say that the total number of ALL deaths to April is 9870 that would be so dramatic as to say that is doubled
    3- They placed 9/11 purposely at the beginning
    4- Finally they will never do this for other US cities that were also supposed to have millions of dead

    This chart has been re-published everywhere with one sole purpose to further induce fear and hysteria in population

    • Replies: @Alden
  175. @Ron Unz

    If we chart 20 years of America’s seasonal ‘flu/pneumonia deaths through June 2020, I doubt that the present ‘crisis’ will be noticeable: we were warned in August that the current ‘flu season would be bad, and ‘bad’ is sufficient to encompass 80,000 deaths. The Covid deaths will fit comfortably in that number.

    If you read the comments in NYT articles on Covid-19 you will see literally hundreds of people describing precisely what we now call Covid-19 symptoms. Several commenters lost relatives who exhibited the full range of Covid symptoms and we know that thousands were dying every month, as they always do.

    If no-one was testing for Coronavirus infection and someone was suppressing testing/reporting then an outbreak like the current one could have gone undetected. The difference between that state of innocence and today’s ‘crisis’ is publicity. The excess death rate is within normal range.

    And we know that the CDC not only suppressed testing, but that it did so until March 1, which has got to tell you something.

    And we know that earlier Covid deaths had been misattributed because the CDC said so.

    And we know that the CDC will not reveal details of its earlier cases and refuses to reveal its Patient Zero even in the face of worldwide pressure.

    And we know that the CDC is very corrupt.

    And we know that the science is far from settled, as this commenter explains:

    I have been reading this article in the PNAS titled Phylogenetic network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes by Peter Forster, Lucy Forster, Colin Renfrew, and Michael Forster.

    It’s a study of the genomes of 160 Covid-19 patients from the around the world. As readers may know, viruses are RNA-based entities that periodically and regularly undergo mutations. One can study these mutations and almost like clockwork trace their evolution – i.e. their lineage and migration pattern.

    The authors specifically employed a methodology known as “character-based phylogenetic networks”. The technique has been used as the “method of choice” to reconstruct prehistoric human population movements, language evolution, various ecological studies, and some 10,000 phylogenetic studies of diverse organisms – and now virology.

    This is an early study – the sample size is only 160 humans – with 100 types. However, the results are stunning. Among the key conclusions:

    There are three major types of coronaviruses, A, B, and C, with type A being the ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 in humans and showing 96.2% similarly to a particular strain of virus in bats.
    Most of the viruses in China and Wuhan are of type B while most of the viruses found in America, Europe and Australia are of type A and C. Type C is not found in Mainland China but is found in significant numbers in Hong Kong, S. Korea, and Taiwan.
    While Type B is found in large numbers across Mainland China (including Wuhan), it is not found in significant numbers around the rest of the world.
    The methodology used was successfully used to trace severally clinically verified cases of virus travel from Wuhan out to various nations, including Brazil and Italy. As such, the author concludes the “character-based phylogenetic networks” methodology was useful and appropriate for studying the spread and evolution of the coronavirus.
    Yet, according to the methodology, the earliest sample of virus studied – collected on December 24 2019 in Wuhan – WAS NOT close to being the ancestor of SARS-CoV-2.

    Let all the above sink in for a minute.

    Some observations…

    First, most of the viruses in the West do not seem to have arisen from China. The authors identified Type B as the main virus type found in Mainland China, with that Type mostly confined to Mainland China and Types A and C predominant outside China – including U.S., Europe and Australia.

    Two reasons given for why Type B variants (“China’s virus,” if you must) did not expand much beyond Mainland China: one being “complex founder scenario” and second “the ancestral Wuhan B-type virus is immunologically or environmentally adapted to a large section of the East Asian population, and may need to mutate to overcome resistance outside East Asia.”

    Since I have yet to see any reputable studies that shows any strains of the coronavirus having any affinity or dislike to any ethnicity of people 1, let’s focus on “complex founder scenario” and “environment” resistance.

    The authors have noted many perplexities in the study. But if we consider the possibility that coronavirus did not originate in Wuhan, those perplexities all go away. More specifically, let’s presume a scenario where the virus was already circulating under the radar in the West and were carried to Wuhan in December or some time before, where it then spread locally within China.

    Consider the fact that the authors had noted that Type B variants outside China did not show the “one-month” variations that would have been expected were Type B variants and descents to have traveled out of China to infect the rest of the world.

    But if Type B variants – including Type C “descendants” – were already communally established and transmitted outside China, then this paradox easily go away.

    Assuming the virus to have been brought to Wuhan instead of originating from Wuhan would also constitute a “complex founding scenario” that the author hypothesized could solve the riddle.

    This assumption also provides an explanation for the “environmental resistance” the author hypothesized. If the virus arrived in Wuhan with the Chinese authorities quickly closing down the city soon afterwards, the virus would not have had chance to spread to the rest of the world. The Chinese governments’ shutting down of Wuhan in January could easily form the “environmental resistance” the authors hypothesized for the Type B virus.

    Finally, it is important to note that in this study, of the 160 samples, most are of patients in China, only a few from outside Asia. In this study, the author had tentatively labelled Type C as a descendant of Type B found in China. But while Type B is found mostly in Wuhan, it has also been found in significant numbers outside China. As more data from outside China comes live (one hopes soon), the same methodology will probably reveal that the predecessor to Type B and Type C arose outside not inside China. Type A and Type C thus all arose outside China and independently of China.

    While the current study is China-centric (most data are from China), it already has established that the virus probably did not arise in Wuhan. The authors noted importantly in the data supplement “that the oldest isolate from 24 December 2019 (brown node, week 0) lies diagonally opposite to the bat virus outgroup root.”

    As we get more data, studies such as this will shed a lot of light on the origins of the coronavirus. It is really too bad, such a shame that the U.S. and Europe has missed such critical times testing and tracking the viral flow. It is truly shameful the attempts of U.S. officials to try to blame China for the virus. But even with limited data, we are already able draw some shocking conclusions!

    See, e.g., https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0258/v2
    https://blog.hiddenharmonies.org/2020/04/11/interesting-study-published-in-pnas-tracing-the-evolution-and-migration-of-sars-cov-2-i-e-the-coronavirus/

    As far as I can see, the question of the origin of Covid-19 remains open, both scientifically and forensically.

    • Thanks: TomSchmidt, FB
    • Replies: @last straw
    , @Vidi
  176. @Cyrano

    One problem (not insurmountable if you’re a liar) is that China did not and does not steal American IP.

    Check the WTO court records (its TRIPS database), and San Jose, LA, NYC, Beijing and Shanghai IP courts and you’ll find three interesting facts:
    1. China has never even been charged with stealing significant IP nor has any final IP judgement against a Chinese firm resulted in significant damages.

    2. Though it is the world’s leading economy and largest manufacturer, judgements against Chinese IP thieves rank behind judgements against other nationalities.

    3. The FBI has has made ten times more IP theft allegations against Chinese and dropped 10x more suits than it has successfully prosecuted. All smoke, no fire.

    Like most stories about China the ‘China stole our IP’ story was created to hide the fact that China is beating our pants off in almost every way, and our oligarchy, instead of gearing up for competition by investing in education and technology, is buying back corporate shares.

    • Replies: @Cyrano
  177. Seraphim says:
    @Nuncle

    It was Epoch Times which published in 2005 an alleged speech of “Chi Haotian, China’s Minister of Defence and Vice-Chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, given to his military leadership in which he exposed the “Plans for Conquest & Extermination of North America”, by means of biological war!
    I remember that it was published in Chinese on Strategic Culture site, but it was immediately taken down, I suspect that SC being a rather leftist outlet, smelled the rat in time. No less than the crude ‘Nazi’ tone and expressions uncharacteristic for Communist China.
    But it was avidly swallowed by the ‘Whites’ of ‘Christian Identity’ and assorted Stormfront ‘Aryans’ type (the target of the hoax). I couldn’t find much (perhaps because of a lack of patience), but the following from a ‘suspended account’ that I downloaded at the time is revealing:
    “The following chilling speech by Chinese Defence Minister Chi Haotian was first carried August 12 by U.S broadcaster Hal Turner. It is a chilling but coherent plan for war,. It explains that China needs more space and resources for its soaring population. It offers a vision of Chinese racial superiority and entitlement to regional, if not world, hegemony. It calls for the conquest of North America, already once conquered by Asians [the Native Indians] and the extermination of at least half of North America’s population, preferably by a still-to-be-perfected biological weapon that targets Caucasians” (Paul Fromm).
    “Chi Haotian, China’s Minister of Defence and Vice-Chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, gave the following speech to his military leadership. … In it, he spoke openly about China’s need for “more living space” and stated bluntly that The United States, Canada and Australia are the only places large enough to accommodate future Chinese needs. He notes the need for a quick, effective biological attack upon the U.S. to depopulate it as a prelude to conquest, and plainly states that China is working on genetic bio-weapons to kill everyone except ‘yellow people.’ His chilling remarks boast of a recent survey of the Chinese public wherein upwards of eighty percent (80%) were willing to ‘shoot and kill women, children and prisoners of war’ as part of such an effort.
    More frightening was his admission of an ongoing deliberate deception of the U.S., with China portraying itself as a peaceful business partner, while actually planning to kill ‘one or two hundred million Americans.
    He also notes that, thanks to trade, income from Chinese exports is providing the financing needed to vastly expand Chinese military might in preparation for an attack upon the U.S. which he seems to indicate will occur within “five to ten years.” — Hal Turner

    • Replies: @Seraphim
    , @Nuncle
  178. occupatio says:

    @ Godfrey
    A correction on a detail, which doesn’t affect the overall article. The research featured on the Taiwan program was actually done by Dr. Yu Wenbin, who led a team of researchers in China to analyze the complete genomes of 93 samples of the virus provided by 12 countries. That paper was submitted in late February, and its English version can be found here:

    http://www.chinaxiv.org/abs/202002.00033

    If you download the PDF for the article, you can see that the graphics featured in the Taiwan TV program are the same, and indeed come from Dr. Yu’s article.

    Dr. Yu’s research has been summarized (in various ways) here:
    https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1181159.shtml
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3051981/coronavirus-did-not-originate-wuhan-seafood-market-chinese

    If we look at figure 3 of Dr.Yu’s article, we see this distribution of the five types, while keeping in mind that the type(s) in a country may have been imported from abroad.

    Hubei (which includes Wuhan): C,B

    Guangdong: A,C,E

    Japan: A,C

    Korea: B

    Taiwan: B,D

    Australia: B,C,D.

    USA: A,B,C,D,E

    Type D (found in Taiwan, Australia, USA, as well as France) is not found anywhere in all of China. That indicates that China is not where all the types evolved.

    Three places have type A: Guangdong, Japan, USA. The USA has all five types, so it could be the place where all the types evolved.

    Finally, new research corroborates Dr. Yu’s findings, and has expanded to include more samples.
    https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-genetic-network-analysis-provides-snapshot-of-pandemic-origins

    Both studies use the A,B,C etc. evolutionary model, in which A is the earliest.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  179. @anon

    In my reply to Ron, above, I suggest that this season’s ‘flu deaths will fit within the normal ‘bad’ range–which the CDC warned last August that it would be–of up to 80,000.

    The CDC admits it classified earlier Covid deaths as ‘flu and that was probably the plan all along: don’t test, don’t tell. That’s a bureaucratic decision and was the UK’s policy until it was revealed.

    Since China knew (as I explain in the article) what the US was doing, did it create the Covid-19 panic specifically to punish the US? Was Wuhan a civil defense exercise that grabbed the world’s attention and alerted it to this awful virus? Is that why the CDC banned testing for it until March?

    Since China’s government is run by geniuses and ours is run by morons, the temptation may have proved irresistible.

  180. NPleeze says:
    @Saggy

    You don’t have to collect data to determine that 1+1 = 2, and you don’t need to collect data to determine that lockdowns and social distancing will reduce the spread of CV.

    LOL, that just shows how utterly stupid people – and you in particular – are. You have no evidence whatsoever, but to you the propaganda for idiots is an immutable law, like 1 + 1 = 2.

    If you actually had a complete lock-down and quarantine, you would probably be correct. But US has nothing of the sort – it has the worst possible “solution”, a partial lock-down combined with ongoing vulnerable/non-vulnerable co-mingling, leading to not only the continued rapid spread of the virus but, as a bonus, the massive destruction of the economy. That is why it continues to spread.

    My God you hysterical cowards are a hopeless lot of ignorant simpletons.

  181. Alfred says:
    @Ship Track

    But ZH keeps needling China like I have never seen them do to Russia or Iran in the past. Something has changed there….

    The old waterboarding treatment works … unfailingly.

    Best of all, it leaves no marks … except on the brain

  182. utu says:
    @Erebus

    I will try to address what I can in your comment but first I would like to open your mind to a bigger reality that what we are witnessing and we are subjects of some disinformation campaign run by intelligence agencies from several states like USA, China, Russia. Stakes are very high because the outcome could lead Avery and situation. But the methods use are no different from the ones successfully tried in the Operation Infektion by KGB in 1980s. You can read all about it here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Infektion

    Articles are planted in some 3rd rate paper in the 2nd world country, scientist are sent to minor conferences, they give interviews to 2nd rate news network, then a major Soviet Block paper picks it up, then some 2nd rate paper in the West picks it up and soon people with right confirmation bias begin to believe the story. Then they did not have internet so the process of seeding the story and whipping it up from whispers to the storm took much longer.

    “A complex of [active] measures regarding this issue has been carried out since 1985 in cooperation with the [East] German and to some extent the Czech colleagues. In the initial stage, the task was resolved of spreading in the mass media the version regarding the artificial origin of the AIDS virus and the Pentagon’s involvement in by means of the military-biological laboratory at Fort Detrick.”

    The Operation Infection was so successful than even after USSR collapse when former KBG, STASI and Bulgarian intelligence officers admitted that the whole campaign was a hoax people in the world continued to believe in the KGB make up story.

    In 1992, KGB Director Yevgeny Primakov admitted that the KGB was behind the newspaper articles claiming that AIDS was created by the U.S. government.[1] Segal’s role was exposed by KGB defector Vasili Mitrokhin in the Mitrokhin Archive. The 1999 book Stasi: The Untold Story of the East German Secret Police describes how the Stasi cooperated with the KGB to spread the story.

    Now go back to Sona Pekova, MD, PhD. What do you know about her? Yes, she is a microbiologist though her publications do not deal with viruses. Currently she is a head of the laboratory, expert supervisor at testing lab Tilia Laboratories in Czech Republic 20km North-West from Prague. They seems to be doing routine tests for human and animal genetics and diseases. The Tilia Laboratories must be a very small outfit as only three employees are listed. One of them is Miroslav Pek, MD who likely is Sona’s husband. He had a very interesting scholarship (?) and affiliations in the past:

    Miroslav Pek, MD
    2005 USMRICD, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD, USA and USAMRIID, Fort Detrick, MD, USA
    2001 – 2003 Head of Epidemiology Department, Military Health Institute Prague
    2003 – 2013 Deputy Director, Military Health Institute Prague

    Now find out who and when did the interview with Sona? One commenter 1 week ago said that the interview was 3 weeks old. Which paper in Czech Republic first picked up the story (AE News) and who used that story in the next step (Dimsumdaily Hong Kong).

    Obviously I am not saying that it is so, that Sona wittingly or unwittingly is playing a role in a disinfo operation run by some intelligent service but I can’t exclude it. I just advise caution.

    • Replies: @Erebus
  183. Seraphim says:
    @Seraphim

    My curiosity was aroused after I sent the post. I checked who Hal Turner was. And guess what?

    “Far-right radio host Hal Turner promotes unproven coronavirus bioweapon conspiracy”:

    “A far-right radio host who has supported the rhetoric of white supremacy is spreading misinformation about the origins of the coronavirus outbreak.
    In an article published Feb. 1, the Hal Turner Radio Show wrote that the 2019 coronavirus is “a military bioweapon developed by China’s army” at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. As evidence, it points to two screenshots from a national database of genetic material.
    “Somehow, it got out. The world is now facing a massive wipe-out of humanity as a result,” the article reads. “The proof that this virus is a genetically-modified Bat-SARS-Like Virus, manipulated by the Chinese Army, appears below. The evidence is irrefutable.”
    @ https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/feb/11/hal-turner-radio-show/far-right-radio-host-hal-turner-promotes-unproven-/

  184. Alfred says:
    @vot tak

    According to the LA Times, researchers from the National Institute of Health are now scouring blood banks across California looking for antibodies in samples of donated blood. These antibodies could provide evidence that people had been catching – and recovering from – Covid-19 long before authorities noticed the outbreak.

    If this is true, this is welcome news. In most countries, those who donate blood freely are healthy people. In the USA, those who donate blood for money are perhaps not so healthy.

    The only way to resolve this California versus New York discrepancy is by testing random samples of the population for antibodies. I strongly suspect that the reluctance of the media to discuss this gives the game away. I am surprised the LA Times ventured in that direction.

    Of course, they longer they delay the more herd immunity installs itself in New York so that it equalizes with California.

    • Replies: @vot tak
  185. Cyrano says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    The way I see it, Godfree, the Chinese are only human. Let say that you had a neighbor and his oven has broken down, or they disconnected his electricity because of unpaid bill, or he/she has some mental issues and doesn’t want to use his/her own oven.

    So they give you a beautiful cake to bake it for them. You are so impressed with the cake and ask them for the recipe. They refuse to give it you, they just want to use your manual labor and your oven. So you don’t have any other recourse but to reverse-engineer the cake. Do you catch my drift? If your neighbor didn’t want their cake to be reverse-engineered by you – the Chinese man, they shouldn’t have given you the cake to bake it for them in the first place.

  186. Tor597 says:
    @Iris

    Interesting, so does this indicate that the West Coast of America was the origin of the virus?

    • Replies: @Vidi
    , @Iris
  187. Alden says:
    @NPleeze

    I’m here, you’re not. You’re just googling around trying to prove something. Hard to figure what your trying to prove? What is it, that the bodies are piling up in the Bay Area? That hospitals have people lying in the corridors?

    As far as the conventions that didn’t happen, since they didn’t travel to convention centers in San Francisco, San Mateo or Santa Clara no one got China virus at a convention in the area.

    Canceling the conventions and closing the venues did prevent the hundreds of thousands who planned to attend the conventions from getting infected as well as the workers.

    As for the convention workers and data center builders, of whom the family business employs about 300 at several sites, none who stayed at home caught the virus so far. When electricians were classified as essential workers one went back to work for another company. He did get infected by going back to work. He’s in his thirties. Not dead or hospitalized yet. As far as I know, they’re all staying home and not getting sick.

    I’m here. You’re not. State schools? They’re not really state schools. They are individual school districts located in the state. They set their own schedules. They don’t need permission from some state education department to set their closing and opening schedule. Our public school system isn’t like that of Europe.

    Post about something you know, not the results of googling.

    40 million people, 541 deaths so far.

    Whether it was Santa Clara County Dr Cody, the convention cancellations, the unions, decisions by the individual school districts, decisions by businesses big medium and small, the fact remains California started the lockdown about 2 weeks before the governor issued his order.

    40 million people, 541 deaths so far.

    You’re suffering from CVDS, Covid virus derangement syndrome, characterized by an obsession with covid, excessive googling about it and arguing with perfect strangers about the convention centers her family business helps operate.

    • Replies: @NPleeze
  188. Tor597 says:
    @Ship Track

    Exactly.

    What is especially suspicious to me is the CDCs delay in testing as outlined in comment 82.

    It looks like they did not want a test that was specific and instead wanted something more generic.

    It might be because they wanted to obscure different forms of the Corona Virus in lab results.

  189. Alden says:
    @cortesar

    The mostly White man governors who put most American states under marital law aren’t hysterical females. The newspaper and TV channel owners who are selling the tens of millions will die propaganda aren’t hysterical women. They’re mostly men, White men like Ron UNZ and the rest of the guys endlessly posting predictions that tens of millions will die on this site.

    I’m a woman. I’ve been totally skeptical about the new plague from the beginning. Maybe it’s like 9/11, an excuse for more TSA and government totalitarian laws.

    Maybe it’s a plot to greatly lower the value of stock, bonds real estate and other assets so they can be snapped up at low prices.

    Maybe it’s a plot by every government in the world to reduce us to beggars in a food line.

    Maybe it’s a plot to kill off half the population of the earth to save Mother Gaia from global warming. Africa and soon the southern Mediterranean are having a locust year. Maybe the conspirators saved the covid plague for a locust year. They occur every 17 years. They’re always bad, but about 3 times a century they’re devastating. Last real bad one was about 50 years ago.

    Hysterical female is probably your wife who spent some of your money on rubbing alcohol and masks. Or maybe you’re mad your local bar is closed.

  190. @Cyrano

    I think that the US wants to demonstrate to the world that it’s payback time.

    Yes, that was definitely one part of the war gaming/planning.

    I think that this divergence between the gold price in London and Comex is one of China’s responses. Most Asian countries, especially China and Russia, have large gold reserves.

    England sold most of their gold for $200 during Brown’s bottom. Canada and New Zealand have sold every last ounce their of gold reserves. Australia has a puny 80 tons. The entire commonwealth has divested itself of gold. Meanwhile the US has 8000 tons, on paper anyway.

    It is quite conceivable that if the US still has its claimed reserves while the commonwealth has little or none. This could part of the reason for the massive spread between NY and London gold price.

    But it is also quite conceivable that China is somehow causing gold market instability as a form of covert retaliation.

    Bullion bank nightmare as lbma comex spread blows up again

    Ronan basically says that the problem is in London and the “market makers” are not trading with each other because they don’t trust each other. I think it centers around HSBC, which well may have been involved in the Hong Kong troubles last year.

  191. Parfois1 says:

    In the style of the absent commenter “clickkid” (where are you?), I am taking the liberty of composing an unauthorized sequel of the little tale featuring Mr. Washing, with a provoking tail:

    Once upon a time there was a truculent rich man in a village whose business was to interfere with everyone and everything. Everyone had to pay him protection tax on pain of being visited by thugs if they refused to pay. In fact, they were not thugs, they were the local policemen doing off-duty work in their civvies.

    You might remember about Mr. Chan’s troubles when they had a large family gathering and they fell sick, and some even died, when they drank a toast for good health and prosperity. Because some were abstemious and did not drink wine, they did not suffer any ill effects and that led to the suspicion that the wine had been laced with poison. Mr. Chan then secretly sent a sample of the wine to an out-of-town laboratory to have the wine tested.

    Meanwhile, in Mr. Washing’s mansion, in the basement of which his servants made strange concoctions, the man in charge one day forgot to lock the door and some servants who did not work there went in and saw crates of bottles of wine stacked there. Believing that the wine was of higher quality than the one stored in the cellars, they took many bottles with them and shared them with friends and relations.

    Many people in the village fell sick and died and rumours spread around that the wine had been poisoned. Mr. Washing used his influence with the local radio station and newspaper to tell the villagers that Mr. Chan was responsible for the outbreak of the disease.

    The servants who stole the wine and survived did not want to reveal the theft for fear of Mr. Washing’s punishment and kept their mouth shut but one of them, a Mr. Snow, whose family had suffered several deaths, was intent on taking revenge for the tragedy. In due course Mr. Chan was informed by the laboratory that the wine had been contaminated with batshit mixed with some toxic chemical.

    One day, when Mr. Washing was celebrating with family and friends his birthday, Mr. Snow was in charge of bar service and he saw his chance of seizing the day: he had saved some of the bottles stolen from the basement and liberally served the contents to his Master, family and associates.

    • LOL: vot tak
  192. @NPleeze

    Thanks for pointing that out as I hadn’t looked at that graph closely enough and wanted to press the agree button on Ron’s comment. It looks like they left out more than a year of observed data, that of 2019 and the first three months of 2020. That data is available so someone should show us the real graph including the missing data. It seems strange that the NYT editors and proofreaders would have missed that. Hasn’t anyone pointed it out to them and asked for a correction to be published? Let’s not accuse them of deliberate misinformation until we know for sure.

  193. Daemon says:
    @Anon

    And you’re defending the regime that is still doing that to this very day. How stupid do you have to be?

    It’s in YOUR interest that those in Washington crash and burn.

  194. @anon

    Or…no-one was testing for Coronavirus because, says the New York Times, the CDC forbade it.

    Jan. 30– US State and Federal officials refuse permission for Dr. Chu, UW infectious disease expert permission to use ongoing ‘flu tests to monitor for coronavirus*.

    Feb. 3–US CDC refuses to adopt a WHO test and ships 200 test kits.

    Feb. 15–CDC announces that its tests were flawed and recalls them.

    Jan 27–Dr. Chu tests anyway and immediately finds Covid fatalities.

    * https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html

  195. @occupatio

    Many thanks!

    Why have our media ignored Dr. Yu’s work?

    Western media exclusively focus on frightening statistics, blaming China and ignoring the science. Eurasian media priorities are the reverse.

  196. @Godfree Roberts

    I’m approaching it as a crime, perpetrated by people who control…

    • Is the intentional destruction of crucial evidence not a crime, especially if it is linked to a possibly criminal event?

    • What motive could there be to destroy such evidence other than to cover up criminal culpability?

    Quotes below from Caixin Global – February 29, 2020
    In Depth: How Early Signs of a SARS-Like Virus Were Spotted, Spread, and Throttled

    https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-29/in-depth-how-early-signs-of-a-sars-like-virus-were-spotted-spread-and-throttled-101521745.html

    On Jan. 1, gene sequencing companies received an order from Hubei’s health commission to stop testing and destroy all samples, according to an employee at one. “If you test it in the future, be sure to report it to us,” the person said they were told by phone.

    Two days later on Jan. 3, the National Health Commission issued its gag order and said the Wuhan pneumonia samples needed to be treated as highly pathogenic microorganisms — and that any samples needed to be moved to approved testing facilities or destroyed.

    One virologist told Caixin that even the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences was not qualified for the tests and told to destroy samples in its lab.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  197. Miro23 says:
    @Priss Factor

    4. Punish China for defying US (read Israeli) sanctions on Iran, and continuing to buy their crude. Iran is the Empire/Israel’s primary target and it refuses to price its oil in US dollars ( threat to dollar reserve status). The amounts are insignificant in the totality of China’s oil imports but they may encourage others to follow their lead. For the moment, Japan and Korea comply with US sanctions, but China’s action encourages them to break away.

    Also, as Ron pointed out, the SARS1 virus stayed local to China and they may have assumed that this variant would do the same.

    https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/defying-us-sanctions-countries-have-taken-oil-from-12-iranian-tankers

    WASHINGTON (NYTIMES) – China is receiving oil shipments from a larger number of Iranian tankers than was previously known, defying sanctions imposed by the United States to choke off Teheran’s main source of income, an investigation by The New York Times has found.

  198. Nuncle says:
    @Seraphim

    Like Germany before both world wars, the status quo was working very well for China, so there was no reason for the Chinese to want to do anything to change things very much. By contrast, the U.S. war machine constantly fabricates enemies, so it’s not hard to suspect that the impetus for all this came from there. How the Epoch Times fits in, I do not know, but it’s obvious now that it fits in there somewhere.

  199. So now we have evidence that you are more likely to contract coronavirus if you vape and there was the mysterious fatal pneumonia outbreak among vapers in the US last summer. Then we have the panic closing of Fort Detrick around the same time. Very interesting.

  200. @Ron Unz

    More evidence that Victor Hanson could be correct and that this “virus” could already have blown through California.

    Blood tests show 14% of people are now immune to covid-19 in one town in Germany

    • Thanks: Alfred
  201. @Been_there_done_that

    The only sources for article you linked to are “a Caixin investigation and ‘anonymous sources.’” That’s pretty thin.

    Their reporting is either factually wrong or provides misleading interpretations.

    On Dec. 30, Dr. Li Wenliang was one of several in Wuhan who sounded the first alarms and released initial evidence online. Li, who was punished for releasing the information

    ” is false. Li did not sound the first alarm (the WHO timeline attests to that), nor was he punished. He was asked why he released confidential information on social media and released.

    As early as Dec. 27, a Guangzhou-based genomics company had sequenced most of the virus from fluid samples from the lung of a 65-year old deliveryman who worked at the seafood market where many of the first cases emerged. The results showed an alarming similarity to the deadly SARS coronavirus that killed nearly 800 people between 2002 and 2003. Around that time, local doctors sent at least eight other patient samples from hospitals around Wuhan to multiple Chinese genomics companies, including industry heavyweight BGI, as they worked to determine what was behind a growing number of cases of unexplained respiratory disease. The results all pointed to a dangerous SARS-like virus. That was days before China notified the World Health Organization (WHO) on Dec. 31 about the emergence of an unidentified infectious disease

    . Of course it was days before China notified the World Health Organization! They were confronting a totally new organism whose behavior would take weeks, even months, to predict. They couldn’t simply say, “Hey! We’ve found this, um, thingie.” They were obliged to provide useful information and it took days to accumulate and analyze it.

    Then on Jan. 3, China’s National Health Commission (NHC), the nation’s top health authority, ordered institutions not to publish any information related to the unknown disease, and ordered labs to transfer any samples they had to designated testing institutions, or to destroy them. The order, which Caixin has seen, did not specify any designated testing institutions

    . So did every health authority on earth. Only labs with special permits are permitted to handle dangerous biological materials–and even they screw up regularly, as the closure of Ft. Detrick illustrates. Lower security labs must (very carefully and thoroughly destroy such samples or forward them to a high security lab.

    The article is part of the US campaign to blame China for the outbreak and, as my post suggests, I believe that it will not only fail but do great damage to the US itself.

  202. Bork says:

    The virus is so infectious that it is impossible for it to have been present in America in june 2019 because if such was the case every american would have been exposed to it already.

    • Replies: @mcohen
    , @Nuncle
  203. Debz says:

    @Godfree
    Good article and interesting comments section.

    Here’s my 2 cents worth.

    The Nation article, published after Scott Ritter’s article in American Conservative re the intelligence failure, followed by a tweet from Scott Ritter.

    Exclusive: The Military Knew Years Ago That a Coronavirus Was Coming | The Nation

    https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/covid-military-shortage-pandemic/

    Scott Ritter’s Tweet 3 days ago.

    “Media reporting about the existence/release of NCMI Coronavirus-related product/assessment in November of 2019 is not correct. No such NCMI product exists,”
    Colonel Dr. R. Shane Day, director NCMI.

    My original analysis stands.

    • Thanks: Godfree Roberts
  204. mcohen says:
    @Bork

    No one anticipated this.i think.

  205. Nuncle says:
    @Bork

    There are a great many questions as to how infectious it is. We also have no idea how many Americans have been exposed to it.

  206. Rollmop says:

    The Americans will just bullshit their way out of it like they always do, their many vassal states will nod along and say “Ja, ja, it was China!”, and life will go on as before. The evidence is irrelevant. This is what both China and Russia fail to understand. Trying to get the world on your side by telling the truth and playing by.the rules doesn’t work when your adversary controls the narrative.

    • Agree: Nuncle, Godfree Roberts
    • Replies: @Nuncle
  207. bjondo says:

    Hysteria, graphs galore, back and forth
    how to prevent dirt from getting on hands
    and what happens if hands get dirty.

    Yawn.

    Why the panic? Get your hands dirty.

    Keelhaul every bio weapons/lifeform modifier researcher to Guantanamo never to return.

    5 dancing shlomos

  208. Amon says:
    @BobX

    That’s easy, you just label the cause of death as the common flu and cremate the body to prevent any chances of tests being carried out.

  209. Amon says:
    @Priss Factor

    You left out the fact that the US deep state and military agencies are operating on their own these days to counter what Trump and his cronies want.

    Recall if you can, the middle manager in some alphabet soup agency that was outraged that Trump dared to run a foreign policy not approved by the inter agency task force and took steps to sabotage it.

    I would not rule it out that some armchair general and his closed group of comrades decided that Trump was doing the wrong thing regarding China and that they had to take steps to solve the problem before it got worse.

    • Replies: @Iris
  210. vot tak says:
    @Alfred

    Those donating blood for money are probably not any less healthy than the rest of the population., just more in need of a few bucks. Perhaps actually more healthy, since they go through a health exam and have their blood tested for existing abnormalities before they can be a doner and go through a short exam and interview everytime they donate. The donation centers are generally located in the suburbs, not inner cities because they are looking for healthy individuals and middle class suburbanites are usually better able to access health care than the poor in inner cities. The companies who run these donation facilities are doing it to make a profit. They can’t sell blood products from unhealthy individuals.

  211. NPleeze says:
    @Alden

    I’m here, you’re not.

    You’re in one tiny part of California. That makes you the expert on the entire state, country and world (to compare), does it? LOL! What arrogance!

    You’re just googling around trying to prove something.

    Yes, I do research, but as I have roots in California I’m also in contact with people all over the state. Just more false, irrational assumptions by you.

    Canceling the conventions and closing the venues did prevent the hundreds of thousands who planned to attend the conventions from getting infected as well as the workers.

    You saying that doesn’t make it true. First, not everybody would have gotten infected even assuming a huge number of infected folks attended – see Diamond Princess, the case that hysterical boot-lickers like to ignore because it goes against their hysteria, for a 20% upper bound. Second, how many will get it anyway before all is said and done? That said, I do agree it makes sense to close convention centers and other large gatherings, I just don’t agree that the results are nearly as dramatic as you assume, without any evidence.

    Our public school system isn’t like that of Europe.

    I meant public schools, since I linked to SFUSD anyone not trying to be a nitpicking pinhead would have picked up on that.

    You’re suffering from CVDS

    Actually you are suffering from CVHCS, CoronaVirus Hysterical Cowardice Syndrome.

    • Agree: acementhead
  212. TT says:

    Just my speculation.

    After series of asymmetrical warfare and trade war failed to derail China, ZUS deep states decided to deploy bioterrorism as last attempt, short of hot war.

    Since US has always get away unscathed in all its successful bioterrorism on China, in 2003 SARS1.0, H1N1 swine flu, H1N5 bird flu, African Swine flu, locust seeding, plant parasites, river parasites pollution,…it decided to utilize Pentagon patented attenuate Coronavirus again.
    https://patents.justia.com/patent/10130701

    https://metallicman.com/laoban4site/was-the-2020-wuhan-coronavirus-an-engineered-biological-attack-on-china-by-america-for-geopolitical-advantage

    But this time it decided to go real big, one that is hard to contain with long incubation, will infect a billion, overwhelm hospital, killing 100Ms with all its aged CCP leadership wipe out.

    Then a global Marshall Plan 2.0 will launch to enslave the devastated world like WWII, establishing a NWO with ZUS as the ultimate unchallenged master.

    So US started by planting a false flag in Ft Detrick Lab leaking as cover, just incase been caught red handed sparking a public outcry or Chinese immediate WMD retaliation. Can a weak US CDC shutdown a Pentagon’s powerful military biowarfare lab?

    If 3000 lifes can be sacrificed for 911, what’s 30,000 to win another century of hegemony.
    Mike Pompeo Admits COVID-19 Is a “Live Exercise,” Trump Retorts “I Wish You Would Have Told Us”
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/secretary-state-mike-pompeo-admits-covid-19-live-exercise-president-trump-comments-i-wish-you-would-have-told-us/5707223

    [MORE]

    The plan was to release a mild strand “A” for “herd immunity” in US before launching a more lethal “B” strand on China. Thousands will die during the herd immunity program like vaccines, but will easily covered up under a bad flu season.

    US allies Nato, Oz, Nz, Japan & SK are also given the “A” strand for herd immunity via USM bases.

    https://broward.ghost.io/2020/03/19/biowar101/

    This is a biowar hypothesis to explain several anomalies in this pandemic. There are two CoronaVirus (CV) strains: “S”, which is low fatality and “L”, which is high fatality.

    A series of media warfare was started since early 2019, spreading Wuhan Lab was stealing pathogenic Coronavirus to dev bioweapon and leaking….in Greatgameindia.com and ZeroHedge.com, doxxing Chinese scientists…to prepare ground for smearing campaign.

    Coronavirus Bioweapon – How China Stole Coronavirus From Canada And Weaponized It
    https://greatgameindia.com/coronavirus-bioweapon/

    Coronavirus : India To Investigate Wuhan Institute Of Virology
    https://greatgameindia.com/coronavirus-india-to-investigate-wuhan-institute-of-virology/

    300 herd immuned USM soldiers with some injected with higher fatality “B” strand were sent to Wuhan military games to spread. They were also ask to target NK & Iran soldiers particularly. 5 US soldiers became very sick and evacuated in emergency in excuse of malaria. But Chinese did not get alarmed by it.
    https://www.veteranstoday.com/2020/03/25/china-us-brought-covid19-to-china-during-army-games-hid-disease-in-us-as-influenza/

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1183658.shtml

    A series of events then unfolded like Event 201 simulation exactly. From global outbreak to economy impact.
    https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/11/06/event-201-health-security/

    Been convinced with Herd Immuned theory, West is not over concern about outbreak despite WHO warnings. US is awaiting China collapsed to pull out its entire supply chain and decouple it globally with border closing. A declaration of global crisis will give US great excuse for unlimited QE to execute Marshall Plan 2.0

    Iran attack reason is obvious. Italy was singled out for “B” strand infection in Oct19, for committing unforgivable sins in: joining China BRI, adopt Huawei 5G, and refused to join USNato hostility towards Russia.

    Saudi MBS was tasked to collapse oil price to devastate Russia, Iran & Venezuela oil economy in crisis.
    https://southfront.org/all-out-oil-war-could-lead-to-collapse-of-saudi-arabia/

    But Chinese CDC system was so damn good that it detected the COVID just with 4~8 reported cases by 31Dec2020, instead of simulated few mths later with 100M infections. Determined it as a bioattack, CCP decisively locked down entire country at astronomical $T cost.

    Within 2 mths, Chinese contain the epidemic with only 84,000 infections, 3,400 deaths. The dragon is injured, but not fatal. Its now ready to revenge, with its biowarfare defense chief Gen Chen Wei took over the game.

    ‘Wolf Warrior’ strives to make China first with coronavirus vaccine
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/chinas-wolf-warrior-strives-to-be-first-with-coronavirus-vaccine/2020/03/19/d6705cba-699c-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html

    The virus then mutated from “B” to “C”, “D”, “E”..and spread to Asia and back to US & EU. Chinese knew the source of virus.
    https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1181159.shtml

    US was caught off guard by China’s unexpected quick success. With no excuse for its unlimited QE plan to save collapsing Wall Street, Plan B was launched.

    Plan B: USNato play fear porn by competing to be most infected nations. This justified their QE & $T bailout plans, as well as preparing a police state for a WMD war.

    But US found its Herd Immune program wasn’t working very well for mutated “C” strand it don’t anticipated. It didn’t work according to Event 201 playbook. Alerted UK & Nato make a quick U turn to fully lockdown, crippling West economy.

    US followed soon on advice that “C” strand if left to run it course, has typical 60% (210M) infection with 15%(30M) hospitalization, 3%(6M) ICU and 0.1~4%(200k~8M) deaths is devastating.

    China & Russia played along the game by sending medical aids team to study the pandemic situation in EU. A new strand of Coronavirus is co-developed with vaccines for retaliation.

    USNato find itself in a quagmire. If they lift the lockdown too fast to declare success, global economy has not yet devastated with 60M deaths as Event 201 simulated. Unlimited QE global Marshall Plan 2.0 will not be able roll out successfully if the world economy is not damaged.

    The mutated “C” strand is also not responding well to its ready Remdesivir & other prepared vaccines, nor the chloroquine treatment. So some lockdown is still require to buy time for new vaccines dev.

    But holding lockdown for too long, global supplies and food will run out in 60days, giving China an unprecedented upper hand using its supply chain power. In fact some clusters have already moved production order to China from West recently due to global supply disruption.

    China is now watching the game in a high position. It has yet to decide if to retaliate or benefit from the crisis. A Chinese Marshall Plan is also been envisaged.

    USNato is struggling with its own created “epidemic” with no effective vaccines yet. A Plan C of WMD war with China can’t be launched until Gate’s digital vaccines can be completed, with a well prepared West police state.( The Anglosaxons Mission).
    http://projectcamelotproductions.com/interviews/anglo-saxon-mission/anglo-saxon-mission.html

    Seeing no near timeline to end pandemic, Trumps suspended the $10 oil price game by calling Putin & MBS. Otherwise devastated oil nations may cave in to start selling oil in RMB to China, the single largest oil buyer. This will collapse Petrol$, hence destroying US global power.

    A Plan D Cold War 2.0 is also on brewing. That is to play victim sueing China as culprit of pandemic for compensation. US & gangs will then confiscate all China overseas assets & treasury, decouple China permanently. US, UK, Oz & India politicians have already started making noise, with US officially filing law suits in Texas for $20T, while India sueing in International Court.

    Breaking/Hilarious: India Accuses China of Bio-War Attack with CV19, Files Court Case
    https://www.veteranstoday.com/2020/04/04/breaking-hilarious-india-accuses-china-of-bio-war-attack-with-cv19-files-court-case/

    China has started its vaccines testing on human. Once work, it will able to contain US global bioterrorism damage, hence derail NWO Marshall Plan 2.0

    Its also now aggressively ramping up its food production, anticipating a global food shortage soon. With medical aids and later food aids, the world geopolitical situation will incline in favour of a benevolent helpful China, while Trumps continue his tyranny of tightening sanction and snapping at allies medical supplies.

    Its unlikely China can replace US Petrol$ with RMB soon, so it will has to contest a new Cold War 2.0 with its aids program and a Marshall Plan after pandemic over. This may divide the world into two, like Soviet era.

    But India is the most unstable nuclear time bomb to watch out. Its already fragile fake economy $2.8T will be devastated by its unprepared sudden lockdown on 4hrs notice.

    50M homeless and beggars are now packed in gov and charity houses to get food.

    100M migrant workers have lost jobs walking back to village spreading infections.

    200M slum dwellers living in open cesspits have mostly become jobless running out of food. Living 10 to one tiny zinc roof hut with no toilet and water to wash hand, its super hot bed for virus spreading.

    700M Indians are still defecating outdoor with no clean water access. Feaces & urine are proven to carry virus for long time. 90% of India cities has no sewage system, polluting all water sources with direct discharge.

    800M depending on agriculture can’t plough/ harvest their land for spring season will see food shortage & lost income. Many farmers relying on loan to buy Monsanto GMO seeds & weed killers will bankcrupt.

    1300M poors will deplete most of their tiny savings if any without jobs in couple of mths. Consumption will fall to rock bottom. Millions of business will shut in vicious cycle.

    India economy relying over 50% in service sector and tiny export will collapse. Its already bad debts ridden banking sector will put to acid test.

    But India has no ability to print rupees out of trouble for unlimited QE like US & EU. Its already nose deep in debts(70% to GDP) to get more loan.

    So Modi may resort to border confrontation with Pakistan again to divert attention. US will try goad it for a false flag nuclear war hoping to drag China in using India as canon fodder.

    US & China will decide the entire world future in next 5 yrs. US is for a hegemony world lead by its MAGA policy, while China is for a common destiny of mankind with multipolars world.

    • Replies: @denk
  213. Iris says:
    @Amon

    I would not rule it out that some armchair general and his closed group of comrades decided that Trump was doing the wrong thing regarding China and that they had to take steps to solve the problem before it got worse.

    This is a most plausible explanation why President Trump privileged economics indicators over the risk of equally image-damaging epidemic in the US, before making a U-turn when the health situation abruptly deteriorated in Europe.

  214. @Godfree Roberts

    The article is part of the US campaign to blame China for the outbreak…

    This article was merely an investigative report (in the journalistic sense) appearing in Chinese media not under the control of the central Chinese governmental authority.

    It is common knowledge that Chinese government culpability for the global pandemic has already been irrefutably established because this Wuhan Virus – known to be extremely dangerous, as evidenced by the destruction of evidence orders – was nonetheless allowed to spread throughout the world for at least a couple of weeks, due to the Wuhan Airport not having been shut down in the first part of January (January 9th at the latest).

    However, a few belated bureaucratic “demotions”, issued in mid-February, cannot exculpate the central Chinese government for its primary responsibility, toward the rest of the world, for having allowed this outbreak to have emerged and spread outside its own territory, without proper preparedness.

    • Replies: @last straw
    , @Nuncle
  215. @NPleeze

    I do not think the isolated cases at the nursing homes and the vaping deaths are related to SARS-CoV-2,

    The now suddenly late Frank Plummer may have agreed with you. Note the date.
    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-analysis/cause-of-sars-disputed-51794

    It is interesting to note that the whole Corona virus thing has been a big secret. This is Plummer again in 2012.
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/saudi-coronavirus-work-stymied-at-canadian-lab-1.1322426

    I do note that there is a US patent on the Corona virus, assigned to the CDC:
    https://patents.google.com/patent/US7220852B1/en

    I became familiar with Plummer’s outside the box thinking when he and Alan Ronald were doing research on HIV in the mid 80s. Samples from Kenyan prostitutes were being sent to a Cytology Lab. There was a safety concern raised as the samples were coming by regular mail, and not marked as bio hazards. The study was on the spread of HIV. Kenya was at the crossroads of Africa for road transport. The trucker used prostitutes frequently. They were able to track the spread within Africa. The puzzle became why some were dying and others not, even though infected truckers had used prostitutes from both “groups”.

    That is not unlike the situation with the current situation. Why do some “healthy” people die, and some not, even though both groups are exposed?

  216. aandrews says:

    Should we expose ourselves deliberately to COVID-19?

    Should we expose ourselves deliberately to COVID-19? Economist Robin Hanson says yes: according to him, voluntary exposure would be a cost-effective measure that should be added to our anti-COVID-10 toolbox. On April 2, 2020 he debated this proposition with Gregory Cochran, co-author of The 10,000 Year Explosion: how civilization accelerated human evolution. This exceptional debate between two excellent and impertinent thinkers was open to all and was hosted live by Presans, the leading European science and technology consulting platform.

    • Thanks: Alfred
  217. denk says:
    @TT

    Unlike the corrupt and wasteful MIC, CIA always goes for the biggest bang per buck, this CV shit shoots one stone killing how many birds ?

    1] Deal a great blow to China’s economy, I heard SARS1
    shaved off more than 1% of China’s GDP, this one is much worse.

    2] Force an exodus of MNC’s supply chains outta China, even if it never goes back to USA.

    3] Derail Made in China 2030 and the 5g roll out.
    Note the hue and cries about 5g health hazards, even blaming the sickness on 5g instead of the virus.
    There’ve been orchestrated attacks /arsons on 5g towers in various parts of the world.

    4]
    The same [[[mofo]]] who orchestrated a genocide of ethnic Chinese in Indon 1965, the same [[[bastards]]] who tried to incite a global jihad on Chinese by the Uighur caper, now wanna make China/Chinese pariah of the 21C.

    Witness the many cases of racial abuse, attacks on Chinese in West/India.
    gawd Damn India never see an anglo war on China that it doesnt like,

    How devilish ?
    Over night, China the rising star, a key node of the anti pax murikka coalition, become the whipping boy of the world. !

    5] FUKUS is leading a campaign to demand ‘war reparation’ [sic] from China, followed by Oz, Germany…
    India has already filed complaIn to the world court. [sic]

    Its the de facto eight nations alliance agaIn, always has been ,always will be,

    US is scheming to write off its huge debt to China, top up with an astronomical ‘reparation’. !
    Oz is talking about huge compensation and….nullifying
    the Darwin port lease , which has been a thorn in Washington’s side. 😉
    We can chalk this up to yet another plausible motive of the CV caper.

    6] Last but not least, let China take the rap for the planned world wide economy depression.

    • Agree: Nuncle
    • Replies: @utu
    , @Erebus
    , @aandrews
    , @TT
  218. Iris says:

    A new study by scientists from Los Alamos National Laboratory shows that SARS-CoV-2 may spread twice as fast as previously thought, with one patient infecting 5.7 others rather than 2.5.

    The virus passed from 1 to another between 2.3 to 3.3 days, half what initially estimated

    The study found that 82% of people would need to be immune to achieve group immunity.

    High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

    Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

    The R0 values we estimated have important implications for predicting the effects of pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions. For example, the threshold for combined vaccine efficacy and herd immunity needed for disease extinction is calculated as 1 – 1/R0. At R0 = 2.2, this threshold is only 55%. But at R0 = 5.7, this threshold rises to 82% (i.e., >82% of the population has to be immune, through either vaccination or prior infection, to achieve herd immunity to stop transmission).

    Results show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic persons can be effective when the fraction of unidentified persons is low. However, when 20% of transmission is driven by unidentified infected persons, high levels of social distancing efforts will be needed to contain the virus (Figure 6), highlighting the importance of early and effective surveillance,


    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article#tnF1

    Such alarming results only highlight why transparency and information-sharing are badly needed to allow all people on Earth to resume a normal life. Come on, CDC !!!

    • Thanks: utu
  219. zevatron says:

    Several people already brought up the PNAS paper which showed type A was mostly found in the US and Australia, type B was highly localized in Wuhan and type C mutated from B.

    Dr Sona Pekova in her interview stated the regulatory or structural protein of SARS-COV-2 had major changes, which were highly unnatural, @ 16:00m

    I’ve been trying to understand exactly what type of unusual changes Pekova was referring to, and this paper seemed to provide a key evidence:
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.976167v1.full.pdf
    In Supplementary Figure 2, the tail section of the virus or 3′ UTR of patient from Wuhan (presumably type B) showed a 10 base insertion CGAUCGAGUG between position 76 – 85 relative to the other two patients from Australia (presumably type A). I am by no means knowledge in molecular biology, but I find it extremely unlikely this type of changes could naturally occur. For amateur like me this NY article helps me understand the structure of this virus tremendously https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/science/coronavirus-genome-bad-news-wrapped-in-protein.html
    NY article gives the complete genome sequence. Interestingly, if you look at the ending section, it matches type B:
    caaucuuuaaucaguguguaacauuagggaggacuugaaagagccaccacauuuucaccgaggccacgcggaguacgaucgaguguacagugaacaaugcuagggagagcugccuauauggaagagcccuaauguguaaaauuaauuuuaguagugcuauccccaugugauuuuaauagcuucuuaggagaaugacaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

  220. Erebus says:
    @utu

    Your points are well taken and well made. I wish that was always so, but I’m not proud of all of my own contributions either.

    If your points can be summed up by saying that the world is suffering as much from a pandemic of competing narratives generated by various players and wannabees and their even more varied vested interests, I concur. Caution is indeed the word of the day against every type of pandemic.

    We ain’t 6 blind men and an elephant. We’re 6 blind men in a phucking zoo, and we’re not all encountering the same animal.

    • Agree: utu
  221. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8208397/Sweden-sees-just-77-new-deaths-coronavirus.html

    “The 77 new deaths, down from 106 yesterday, bring the total from 793 to 870
    Another 544 cases – a fall from yesterday’s 722 – take tally from 9,141 to 9,685
    Bars, restaurants, cafes and primary schools remain open with no lockdown”

    Schools open, minimal mortality. Likely the majority of victims are dark skinned arabs and blacks who don’t produce vitamin-D in a Swedish winter. Darkies should stay near the equator.

    • Replies: @Herald
  222. utu says:
    @denk

    You might be right. The fallout from the covid pandemic may lead to what you put in your six point list. Those who think it was about hurting China by her suffering from economic slowdown are shortsighted and unimaginative. If only China suffered people would lend her empathy and support. But it was the world wide ire and anger with China that was desired. To accomplish this the whole world had to go into the pandemic that would be attributed to China. So far it is working. Now the pressure on the free wheeling capitalist class that saw China as its source of profit is enormous. They will have to leave China and accept the losses for the greater good of the western dominance over the world.

    • Replies: @denk
  223. @Godfree Roberts

    It’s actually quite remarkable for the Chinese health professionals to detect the novel coronovirus in such a short time frame during the winter flu season, thanks to their national medical surveillance system established after SARS.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/medical-surveillance-allowed-china-to-discover-novel-coronavirus-2020-1

    It’s possible that the U.S. does not have such a robust nationwide, or even statewide, surveillance system so they missed the hot spots and misattributed the causes of deaths, not to mention CDC corruption.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  224. Erebus says:
    @denk

    US is scheming to write off its huge debt to China, top up with an astronomical ‘reparation’. !

    Relax.
    If the US repudiated their debt to China it would instantly turn the UST from a financial asset into a piece of political paper. Goodbye world reserve currency status, and hello hyperinflation as the world’s dollar holdings pour back into the USA in a desperate attempt to convert them into tangible assets.

    What’s more, China would retaliate by nationalizing >$1T of US owned assets in China. How pleased would Ford, GM, IBM, MS, Caterpillar, etc, etc be about that? Not very pleased, I’d wager, and unlikely to stay quiet about it.

    In short, it’s all grandstanding and posturing to deflect blame from the guilty to the victim. The victim in this case, however, is not without recourse so all this is just chatter.

    • Replies: @denk
  225. @Been_there_done_that

    It is common knowledge that Chinese government culpability for the global pandemic has already been irrefutably established because this Wuhan Virus – known to be extremely dangerous, as evidenced by the destruction of evidence orders – was nonetheless allowed to spread throughout the world for at least a couple of weeks, due to the Wuhan Airport not having been shut down in the first part of January (January 9th at the latest).

    However, a few belated bureaucratic “demotions”, issued in mid-February, cannot exculpate the central Chinese government for its primary responsibility, toward the rest of the world, for having allowed this outbreak to have emerged and spread outside its own territory, without proper preparedness.

    The Chinese side informed WHO on Dec. 31 and published the genome of the novel coronavirus on Jan. 12. The Caixin article obviously did not tell you the whole story. There was nothing wrong that the Chinese authority required unqualified labs to destroy highly contagious samples and allowed only qualified labs to handle such dangerous samples.

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf

    Not a single country locked down outbound traffic in the early stage of the outbreaks. Doing so without sufficient evidence would be counterproductive. It would just encourage more people to flee and spread out the disease even more.

    • Replies: @Been_there_done_that
  226. denk says:
    @utu

    shortsighted and unimaginative

    The troll Canspeccy has been bleating that this couldnt be a fukus caper cuz their economies are also being hit.

    Now the pressure on the free wheeling capitalist class that saw China as its source of profit is enormous. They will have to leave China and accept the losses for the greater good of the western dominance over the world

    Washington and Tokyo are demanding their MNCs to pack up and go home., all losses incurred would be fully reimbursed.

    Wilbur Ross
    This is a great opportunity to reset the global supply chain !

    Another plausible motive.

  227. denk says:
    @Erebus

    How pleased would Ford, GM, IBM, MS, Caterpillar, etc, etc be about that? Not very pleased, I’d wager, and unlikely to stay quiet about it.

    Perhaps thats why Trump is goading them all to uproot and go home ?

    His trade war tactics has always been
    like cutting off the nose to spike the face

    • Replies: @Erebus
  228. ishaobin says:
    @Shaman911

    Thanks. Few know or appreciate the use of Astrology by the Freemasons and other elites.

  229. Realist says:
    @Ron Unz

    I wouldn’t be surprised if April deaths end up running 1,000% above normal, and that’s despite the lockdown.

    The fact that you wouldn’t be surprised…lends no credence to your postulate.

    • Agree: Nuncle
  230. Herald says:
    @Priss Factor

    You had me on the edge of my seat, as you very plausibly explained why certain rogue elements in the US could have been behind the Wuhan epidemic, yes that might well be worth pursuing. However, further consideration was not needed and without further ado, charges had been laid and somehow it must have become quite clear that China or possibly rogue Chinese bats were the likely guilty parties.

    Always leave them wanting more, it sometimes still works.
    .

  231. Nuncle says:
    @Rollmop

    Ditto for Germany prior to both WW1 and WW2.

  232. aandrews says:
    @denk

    “[5] FUKUS is leading a campaign to demand ‘war reparation’ [sic] from China…”

    I found that hard to believe. I guess it’s true. Is there a historical precedence for that, a country being held accountable for the origin of disease outbreak? Seems rather bizarre.

    More than half of Americans think China should pay coronavirus reparations, poll shows
    Majority of Americans Support Reparations… From China
    Should China foot the bill for coronavirus pandemic?

    …and so forth.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
    , @denk
  233. @last straw

    What’s remarkable is that the US does have such a surveillance system, a 3,000-node network of professionals who record clinical ‘flu admissions every season. Dr. Helen Chu, who the NYT featured, was one of them.

    BUT after she read the WHO red notice and asked if she could re-task her throat-swabbing program to look for Covid the CDC told her and the entire network, “No!” and kept the ban in place until March 1.

    That’s a dead giveaway, I think.

  234. TRM says:
    @Priss Factor

    “Two things could have happened.
    1. It really began in China because of bat soup or Wuhan lab negligence.
    2. Foreign agent released it in China.”

    Oh there are more than 2 options. Lots more. Any time spies are involved just think of the craziest idea you can and then keep going.

    1) Accidental escape from Wuhan lab.
    2) Accidental escape from Ft Detrick taken to Wuhan accidentally by military athletes or support personal.
    3) Accidental escape from Ft Detrick covered up by releasing it in Wuhan.
    4) Normal CAFO operation (millions of chickens in confined quarters)
    5) A third party.
    6) A space borne pathogen (Don’t laugh, see link below)

    https://cosmictusk.com/wickramasinghe-predicted-coronavirus-pandemic-in-november-2019/

    I have no idea which, if any, are even close. The data is complete garbage at this time from China and the USA rendering any conclusion from it equally worthless.

  235. Herald says:
    @Ship Track

    Darkies should stay near the equator.

    Or take supplementary Vitamin D.

    Of course, if all “darkies” had stayed near the equator, then it seems that there would be no lighter skinned people.

    • Disagree: Nuncle
    • Replies: @Ship Track
  236. Ron Unz says:
    @Alden

    There were county, school, business and facility lockdowns in California before March 20. San Francisco and Bay Area private schools all closed down sometime in the first week of March…

    The huge Moscone convention center in SF received cancellations the first week of March and closed completely around the 12th? Several thousand permanent employees and hundreds of thousands of convention goers were thus protected. The numerous hotels that have conventions from all over the Bay Area closed down and sent all the convention workers home that same week.

    Those are excellent points. I’m sure I’d read about them in my newspapers, but had forgotten. Also, Facebook, Google, and other Big Tech firms told all their tens of thousands of employees to begin working at home around the same time.

    Even more importantly, Stanford University shut down and sent all their students home, which really was an earthquake in Silicon Valley. Someone pointed out it probably played an important role in persuading the local public health authorities to issue their March 16th order.

  237. @aandrews

    It just shows how effective propaganda is on the American public.

  238. Nuncle says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    ‘Chinese government culpability for the global pandemic has already been irrefutably established’

    Nonsense. The antecedent events are still being debated and so far seem to point away from China. I would say we have to hone in on Bill Gates and find out what we can about his influence over the CDC.

  239. aandrews says:

    “6) A space borne pathogen (Don’t laugh, see link below)”

    I love shit like this:))

    In all seriousness, I think it’s a rather fully accepted notion that simple amino acids were conveyed to the primordial earth by comets, so…. Thanks for the lead on an obscure book (the Kindle version is only four bucks!).

  240. Seraphim says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    Can the fact that Caixin Global was incorporated in Hong Kong in 2016 and is praised glowingly by the likes of New York Times, Bloomberg Businessweek, Financial Times, The Economist, Forbes, The Guardian as an ‘Influential reformist magazine’, an ‘intrepid Chinese magazine well known for unusual bold investigations’, whose Editor-in-Chief is ‘the nation’s best “crusading financial journalist”, make us take its ‘unusual bold investigations’ with more than a pinch of salt?

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  241. Iris says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    I’m approaching it as a crime, perpetrated by people who control most of the country’s labs, researchers and media.

    A crime at this scale is a crime against humanity.

    Until two days ago, and on the basis of the excellent information gathered by yourself and by the UR, it seemed that the most likely cause for the Covid-19 pandemic was an accidental leak from Ft Detrick.

    But the Cambridge study of the virus’ genetic trail brings to light even more disturbing facts :
    – The ancestor A strain being so prevalent outside China may indicate that a less lethal strain was first used to enhance the virus and build herd immunity within hostile countries, before them carrying out the biological attack on China.
    – The Bat strain being genetically the furthest apart from Wuhan’s initial strain proves how improbable and unlikely it was for a pandemic to start precisely in that town. If genetics is unlikely to be involved, then it is Wuhan’s strategic position that made it a target.
    – The B strain infecting Hubei and SE Asia not undergoing significant mutations sugges it was particularly well adapted and tailored for the target population. A “miraculous” right-first time virus, in other words.

    It becomes very difficult to believe that this pandemic was not a deliberate operation; it looks more and more like the work of the criminally insane, genocidal NeoCons.

    • Agree: acementhead
  242. TT says:
    @denk

    Thanks Denk for the concise summary. Another 8 Alliance opium war with Indian as sepoy, but a Global one this time.

    These same gangs are raking up casualty numbers to inflate war reparations claim after pandemic over. US, EU, India, Oz,..politicians are demanding Chinese blood to compensate their Herd Immunity program lost. Global Chinese xenophobia is aiming to cull Chinese globally, like they did in Indonesia during Sukarno era.

    Perhaps Americans themselves are helpless walking zombies victim of this Great Game of anglo-jews zionists aka owners of FED.

    These few gawd chosen Cabals using front boys like Soros & Pompeo, have declared war on Chinese openly. They are determined to destroy China for their perpetual 14M members clan’s privilege to lord over world 99.8% population.

    Watch this video, who is behind all the world crisis every 10yrs & endless wars.

    American Freedom to Fascism
    By Aaron Russo

    [MORE]

    Or you can download here:

    Their tentacles are everywhere in the world.
    https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jewish-population-of-the-world

    China “jews” are revived & groomed by Israel to infiltrate.
    https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/china-virtual-jewish-history-tour

    One jews Zionist Nasseh Meyer is said to control half to 3/4 of Spore assets, making fortune in Opium trade with strong link to India. He is President of Asia Zionism, HQ in in Spore. Is he the mastermind of CECA aka Indianized Spore to control Malacca Straits.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manasseh_Meyer

    “Born in Baghdad and educated in Calcutta, Manasseh Meyer came to Singapore in 1861 aged 15.In 1864, he returned to Calcutta to work with his uncle in business as well as to learn literary Hebrew and Arabic.[3]

    Meyer returned to Singapore in 1873 and founded his own import-export business known as Meyer Brothers involved in the opium trade.[7] The firm grew to dominate all trade with India, linked by the two then flourishing Baghdadi Jewish communities of Calcutta and Singapore.

    Having initially built his fortune in opium he expanded into real estate and further his fortune in property in booming colonial settlement of Singapore after the trade was ceased.[10]

    Not only was he one of the richest men in Singapore, at one point he was believed to own three-fourths of the island.[13]

    Inspired by the Ben Yish Hai’s focus on supporting the growing Jewish community in Palestine, he became a committed Zionist.[21]

    In 1922 Meyer became the founding president of the Singapore Zionist Organization. His home was known as a “beehive” of Zionist activity in Asia.[24] “

    https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/singapore-virtual-jewish-history-tour

    • Replies: @denk
  243. vot tak says:

    Iranian General Says Tehran Looking at Possibility of ‘Biological Warfare’ Behind COVID-19 Outbreak

    https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202004131078932160-iranian-general-says-tehran-looking-at-possibility-of-biological-warfare-behind-covid-19-outbreak/

    “Iranian authorities are undertaking “comprehensive studies” into the possibility of “biological warfare” behind the coronavirus outbreak in the country, the head of Iran’s Health Department of General Staff of the Armed Forces, Second Brigadier General Hassan Araghizadeh, told Mehr News Agency on Sunday.

    “Every country is looking into the matter to see the likelihood of any biological warfare behind the issue,” Araghizadeh said. “The Iranian scientific centers are also conducting researches in this regard, however, a definite decision needs more time and effort”.

  244. Vidi says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    And we know that the science is far from settled, as this commenter explains:

    I have been reading this article in the PNAS titled Phylogenetic network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes by Peter Forster, Lucy Forster, Colin Renfrew, and Michael Forster.

    Note that PNAS is the “Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America”, a strongly peer-reviewed journal. Thus the paper by Forster et al (link) is not some flaky amateur work.

    First, most of the viruses in the West do not seem to have arisen from China. The authors identified Type B as the main virus type found in Mainland China, with that Type mostly confined to Mainland China and Types A and C predominant outside China – including U.S., Europe and Australia.

    Futhermore, according to the paper, Type A is ancestral to Type B — and Type A is prevalent in the US but not Mainland China. If the Forster work holds up, The Donald’s smears of the “China virus” will be totally demolished. And he will have to defend against accusations of the “America virus”.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  245. Erebus says:
    @denk

    Perhaps thats why Trump is goading them all to uproot and go home ?

    That occurred to me as well, but that’s not something one can do overnight. They can certainly abandon their factories and R & D centres and send their ex-pat staff home, but they can’t just pick up and remove the factory’s infrastructure or Chinese staff.

    All that stuff belongs to the Chinese subsidiary, which has a Chinese joint-venture partner in almost all cases. Regardless, the American parent doesn’t own it. So…

    [1] they’d have to go through the legal process of dissolving the partnership,
    [2] they’d need an export license to dismantle and send machinery & equipment overseas,
    [3] there’s plenty of rules in the rulebooks to deny a license, and
    [4] the building itself can’t be moved in any case.

    Trump’s goading is going nowhere, or at least nowhere that advantages the American worker. If Ford leaves China, they’ll go to Mexico, Canada or even Venezuela. It’s just political grandstanding, with a view to setting up the Overton window that’ll define a politically advantageous narrative when that inevitable exodus starts.

    • Replies: @denk
  246. @Seraphim

    I’m shocked, shocked! to find an HK-based publication badmouthing China. Shocked, I say!

  247. @Iris

    My Chinese friends say the country is preparing for war. Pouring enormous resources into food security to get imports down from 25% to 10%.

    • Replies: @Iris
    , @TT
  248. Vidi says:
    @Tor597

    Interesting, so does this indicate that the West Coast of America was the origin of the virus?

    Either that, or the west coast sequenced more of the virus than the east coast.

  249. aandrews says:
    @Iris

    Phylogenetic network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes
    Peter Forster, Lucy Forster, Colin Renfrew, and View ORCID ProfileMichael Forster
    PNAS first published April 8, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2004999117
    https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117

    Abstract

    In a phylogenetic network analysis of 160 complete human severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) genomes, we find three central variants distinguished by amino acid changes, which we have named A, B, and C, with A being the ancestral type according to the bat outgroup coronavirus. The A and C types are found in significant proportions outside East Asia, that is, in Europeans and Americans. In contrast, the B type is the most common type in East Asia, and its ancestral genome appears not to have spread outside East Asia without first mutating into derived B types, pointing to founder effects or immunological or environmental resistance against this type outside Asia. The network faithfully traces routes of infections for documented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, indicating that phylogenetic networks can likewise be successfully used to help trace undocumented COVID-19 infection sources, which can then be quarantined to prevent recurrent spread of the disease worldwide.

    • Replies: @Iris
  250. Iris says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    The US’ belligerent strike primarily boils down to the NeoCons.

    In hindsight, it was a giveaway that the “Wuhan lab leak” accusations were made by an Israeli military, and that the first lawsuit against China was announced by a Tel Aviv-based lawyer.

    • Replies: @Seraphim
    , @Godfree Roberts
  251. luke2236 says:
    @BobX

    Precisely.
    The ‘virus’ has been shown – beyond too much reasonable doubt – to be the ‘brainchild’ of a dr (((lieb))) in the US. BUT… this was then smuggled into red china for them to use against their own population; they have an ‘excess labour supply’ ya know and quite a few pesky dissidents… and hey, after admitting to murdering 45 MILLION of their own, whats a few more million under the cloak of a virus?
    This worked so well that ‘TPTB’ decided to release it elsewhere for not only regime change, but to wreck the economies of the West. Due to teh goys idiocy, it has worked remarkably well.
    The facts are there, but the idiots in the West just cant seem to read… the wuhan flu is , so far, not even as deadly as the ‘regular’ flu season of last year.
    This is ALL political. period. And it may well have been created here at Ft Detrick – probably so as the red chinese do not possess the ability – but it started IN red china and was exported, on purpose, elsewhere. I SO tire of these morons who cannot see the evil of teh chicomms…

    • Troll: Seraphim
  252. denk says:
    @TT

    These same gangs are raking up casualty numbers to inflate war reparations claim after pandemic over. US, EU, India, Oz,..politicians are demanding Chinese blood to compensate their Herd Immunity program lost.

    Exactly.

    Nobody really know how many of those ‘flu’ deaths in U.S. pre-Wuhan were actually CV casualties, nobody to verify how many of these latest CV deaths are real, inflated or fabricated.
    Its all black box op from day one .

    Global Chinese xenophobia is aiming to cull Chinese globally, like they did in Indonesia during Sukarno era

    .

    For those who missed it.
    This is how [[[CIA/MI5]]] orchestrated the culling of chicoms in Indon 1965…

    U.S. officials were particularly interested in linking the September 30th plotters to Beijing. They helped to spread stories about China’s alleged involvement and reported on caches of weapons purportedly “discovered” by the Indonesian army with the hammer and sickle conveniently stamped on them. “We have bonanza chance to nail chicoms on disastrous events in Indonesia,”

    https://monthlyreview.org/2015/12/01/the-united-states-and-the-19651966-mass-murders-in-indonesia/

    We therefore agree with the [above] recommendation… Suitable propaganda themes might be… Chinese interference in particular arms shipments; PKI subverting Indonesia as agents of foreign communists”.

    http://markcurtis.info/2007/02/01/us-and-british-complicity-in-the-1965-slaughters-in-indonesia/

    Your vid is more than an hour, I normally prefer transcript, but I’d
    take time to sit thru it, your recommendation seldom disappoints.

    In fact, your original post is one of the best review on the CV caper, I havent fully digested yet.

    So much B.S., so little time.

    • Replies: @TT
  253. luke2236 says:
    @antibeast

    Certainly you wouldnt expect the red chinese to ADMIT to anything like a pandemic until it was impossible not to? Accepting ANYTHING the chicoms say as true is a fatal error.

  254. Iris says:
    @aandrews

    pointing to founder effects or immunological or environmental resistance against this type outside Asia

    Although created by mathematical methods, the phylogenetic network obtained must ultimately be interpreted by a competent geneticist. The lead author of the study has indicated that the second possibility is more realistic than a hypothetical complex founder event:

    A complex founder scenario is one possibility, and a different explanation worth considering is that the ancestral Wuhan B-type virus is immunologically or environmentally adapted to a large section of the East Asian population, and may need to mutate to overcome resistance outside East Asia.

    The Wuhan B strain was so well “tailored” to East Asians that it did not mutate much while there, in contrast with the accelerated mutation pace it went through once it moved to Europe and US East Coast.

  255. Nuncle says:
    @Iris

    Perhaps that what chemtrails were doing (aerosol dispersion of the A strain)?

  256. denk says:
    @Erebus

    wHAT happens if a US controlled ‘world court’, or even a kangaroo court in the U.S. itself, rule in favour of Chinese reparations to all ‘victim’ countries ?

    The U,S. and others take over all Chinese assets, even write off the debt itself as part of the ‘compensation’.
    If China retaliates in kind, I wont let pass the likelihood that Washington would resort to war.

    The cabal is desperate, [[[they]]] figure that the next five years are the last window they can take on China militarily aNd prevail,. Beyond that the Chinese would be too strong to defeat.

    • Replies: @Erebus
  257. denk says:
    @aandrews

    Pr-Wuhan polls showed that more than 60% of murkkans believed China is a
    ‘threat’ to national security. [sic]
    So far none of them could give me one good reason on how did the chicoms threatened good ole U.S.A tho !

    Just wonder what’s the latest figure now ?

    John Pilger
    Murkkans are like mushrooms, kept in the dark and fed bullshits all day long.

    P.S.
    Once again, [[[mofo]]], [[[sobs]]],
    refer to the satanists who rule fukus and its apparatus like CIA./MI5.

  258. Iris says:
    @Tor597

    Interesting, so does this indicate that the West Coast of America was the origin of the virus?

    Not necessarily, but it proves that the virus appeared in the US West Coast (under A strain) before it appeared in Wuhan (under B strain).

    There are still sections of genetic lineage missing, roughly between the bat and the A strain.

    • Replies: @Erebus
  259. Seraphim says:
    @Iris

    See the recent post of Gilad Atzmon.

  260. Erebus says:
    @denk

    wHAT happens if a US controlled ‘world court’, or even a kangaroo court in the U.S. itself, rule in favour of Chinese reparations to all ‘victim’ countries ?

    The ruling would be patently political. With the evidence we now see building in its favour, only a kangaroo court could find it guilty in any way. China, supported by its allies Russia, Iran, and doubtless a few others that can read the tea leaves, will ignore the ruling.

    China’s largest foreign investments have been in Asia, Africa and S. America where the US hasn’t got the pull it has in Western Europe or the Anglo world. I’m not saying China wouldn’t get its hair mussed, but it holds a lot of good, even decisive cards if the war stays on the economic front.

    If China retaliates in kind, I wont let pass the likelihood that Washington would resort to war.

    A hot war changes everything, of course, but short of a nuclear exchange it’s a war the US is even less likely to win, at least in any normal sense of “win”. They cannot unseat the CCP, and they cannot unseat China’s position as the world’s largest economy nor as the world’s industrial superpower. They certainly can’t extract or force any “reparations” from China other than tit-for-tat asset seizures, so unless China sees an opportunity to make a favourable deal they’ll leave the case hanging with nothing but a court transcript to wave around to a distracted audience.

    The cabal is desperate, [[[they]]] figure that the next five years are the last window they can take on China militarily aNd prevail,.

    They’ll get even more desperate as the consequences of the pandemic become clear, and it’s certainly not unlikely that both Russia and China will have to start becoming more assertive. Time to take the pillow gloves off and get standard competition ring gloves, at least. The China-Russia partnership will be tested, but if it holds the cabal will run out of runway and go into the bushes.

    • Replies: @denk
    , @d dan
  261. @Herald

    “it seems that there would be no lighter skinned people.”

    Yes, we all know the PC narrative. It has been drilled into our brains for decades. Anyone paying attention and not stuck in a media opium bubble knows that this “science” is merely more cultural marxist drivel. Throw it in the garbage can with “multiculti”, “diversity is our strength”, “climate change” and the entire gay disco.

  262. Erebus says:
    @Iris

    There are still sections of genetic lineage missing, roughly between the bat and the A strain.

    My money now says they’ll stay missing. Or more accurately, they’ll remain a “black box” where an “atypical” genetic leap took place.

    • Replies: @d dan
  263. The pandemic is a natural disaster, not a terrorist act by China. China is protected by state immunity in foreign courts and by sovereign immunity in its own courts. Suing China for compensation is a nonstarter.

  264. @Iris

    I wonder how China plans to crack the omertà of the US science community–all of whom depend upon the government for grants. ZERO interest in Covid-19 phenotypes.

    Their non-participation is astonishing. Talk about a totalitarian state. The FBI’s Charles Lieber stunt was effective.

    If there was a US plot as we surmise, and if the Chinese knew or divined its details (as seems likely), and gathered evidence in advance, and tuned up their civil defense mechanism, then they sprung the trap in Wuhan. Only senior Chinese would have known the details and I notice that two of them, the chief virologist and the head of the CCDC, were livid at the Wuhan local officials (who clearly weren’t in on the plan) who delayed notification. Publicly white hot with anger!! No wonder.

    That’s why I think Valerie Van Kerckhove was onto something when, months ago, she said, “I actually find the response by the Chinese government to be extremely interesting. It seems like it’s overblowing the matter on purpose. Considering the low number of cases (compared to China’s population) and low death rates, it feels like the Chinese government is overblowing fears on purpose, with maps filled with dark areas and shutting down everything everywhere (and this is during China’s most important holiday season).

    “I suspect it’s practicing for when a Really serious disease breaks out, the sort with people dying like flies. So I find all this fuss quite interesting. We’ve been warned about a potential superbug outbreak for years, and now we can see how the response will look like. No doubt the Chinese government is busy taking notes on what it could have done better.

    “Not to mention, I don’t think most Westerners realize just how big Wuhan is, just how significant Chinese New Year is in terms of people moving around and just how many people go in and out of those wet markets every day. That’s like, tens of thousands of people leaving the wet markets, taking public transport then going home to expose all their visiting relatives, and all those people in turn going to all sorts of crowded areas too. With a high enough contagion rate, we’d easily be at 1 million infected. The fact that we haven’t reached such numbers means that this virus isn’t That bad.”

    I notice more articles like this: “COVID-19: On average, only 6% of actual infections detected worldwide.” (University of Göttingen) https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-covid-average-actual-infections-worldwide.html?utm_source=nwletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=weekly-nwletter

    • Agree: dogbumbreath
    • Thanks: Iris
    • Replies: @Vidi
  265. @luke2236

    Since accepting ANYTHING the chicoms say as true is a fatal error, you clearly are familiar with lots of things they’ve said.

    From those things, could you share just one example of a lie?

    Not an allegation, mind you, but a direct chicom statement, with a link, that proved to be a lie.

    Gracias!

  266. More evidence that Victor Hansen could be correct:

    Roseland Hospital phlebotomist: 30% of those tested have coronavirus antibody

    30% to 50% of patients tested for the coronavirus have antibodies while only around 10% to 20% of those tested have the active virus.

    Sumaya Owaynat, a phlebotomy technician, said she tests between 400 and 600 patients on an average day in the parking lot at Roseland Community Hospital. Drive-thru testing is from 9 a.m. to noon and 1 to 4 p.m. each day. However, the hospital has a limited number of tests they can give per day.

    Owaynat said the number of patients coming through the testing center who appear to have already had coronavirus and gotten over it is far greater than those who currently have the disease.

    “A lot of people have high antibodies, which means they had the coronavirus but they don’t have it anymore and their bodies built the antibodies,” Owaynat told Chicago City Wire.

  267. @Vidi

    Notice the total silence from the US scientific community? British and German researchers are doing the heavy lifting.

    What makes that even more remarkable is that the US leads the world in medical science and biology.

    Yet they have zero interest in this research–even as it kills their parents and grandparents.

    • Replies: @Vidi
  268. antibeast says:
    @luke2236

    Certainly you wouldnt expect the red chinese to ADMIT to anything like a pandemic until it was impossible not to? Accepting ANYTHING the chicoms say as true is a fatal error.

    What the US military intelligence did — warning the Trump Administration of an impending viral pandemic in China in early November 2019 — before the Chinese authorities had discovered that a viral pandemic began infecting large number of Chinese residents in Wuhan in late December 2019 establishes a priori (before the event) knowledge of epidemiological facts which didn’t exist in China at the time. Your claim that the Chinese had posteriori (after the event) knowledge of an impending viral epidemic is a contradiction in terms. Just look at the timeline: early November to late December. The viral outbreak starts slowly at first (early November) until it reaches a critical mass at which point the initial infections have turned into a viral pandemic (late December). If the viral epidemic had not started yet in early November, how would the Chinese authorities know of an impending viral epidemic the following December? More importantly, how come US military intelligence knew of an impending viral epidemic in early November which they communicated to the Trump Administration but withheld notifying the Chinese authorities?

    China officially notified the WHO on December 31st, 2019 while the WHO officially declared the Covid-19 viral pandemic only on March 11, 2020. But US military intelligence had already warned the Trump Administration of an impending viral pandemic in early November 2019!!!

    How did they know that this was going to happen? And if they knew, how come they didn’t notify China and the WHO?

    • Agree: dogbumbreath
    • Replies: @acementhead
  269. @last straw

    There was nothing wrong that the Chinese authority required unqualified labs to destroy highly contagious samples and allowed only qualified labs to handle such dangerous samples.

    What “highly contagious samples“, that you stated were OK to destroy, are you referring to?

    Evidence of biological weapons research?

    Samples of human blood or sputum taken from patients and used for sequencing the deadly virus?

    If yes to the latter question, then following your logic would also entail either exterminating (and then cremating) all individuals suffering from the virus or else sending them to a qualified lab for treatment instead of a hospital. Note that according to the Caixin Global article I quoted from above, not even the Institute of Virology in Wuhan was deemed safe for testing, so which lab was even qualified then?

    Following this leads to contradictions, so it must be the answer to the first question. Instead of rebutting the point I made you have actually reinforced it.

    Not a single country locked down outbound traffic in the early stage of the outbreaks.

    It was only necessary to close down one airport on January 3 of this year – in Wuhan – based on the information that was already available then.

    • Replies: @last straw
  270. TT says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    From what i read in China news, China gov anticipating a global food shortage due to world wide shutdown. So they will help stabilize world supply from (((commodity future traders)))) manipulating price.

    China already has its food stockpile program for 9mths incase of war. They can’t overstock as food has shelves date, and granary/ warehouse capacity is limited.

    During ladt few wks lockdown, many nations farmers are not able to plough their land nor harvest their ripen produces without workers. Tonnes of food are rotting in Italy. Poultry & fish farms facing feed supply issue and drop in demand are reducing stocks to cut loss. Fishermen also stop their work.

    This was make worst by several grain exporting nations announcing banned in food exports. Even Russia jumped in to ban soya export to China which don’t make sense, making Russia look an unreliable partner in crisis.

    So China gov has activated its grassroots to supply lands & resources with 600RMB per mu(acre) incentive to all farmers for any newly planted land in early season ploughing (hence enable twice sowing per season). Many farmers are delighted by the incentive with some kind of guaranteed minimum buying price.

    Which means there will not just increase farmed area but also double harvest to vastly increase food production. 100,000 special seeding pigs are also imported from France to boost poultry farms.

    So after medical aids, there will be a food aids also from China to save the hungry world. West msm will squeak again.

    • Thanks: Godfree Roberts
    • Replies: @Erebus
  271. denk says:
    @Erebus

    I hope you’r right.

    But Beijing should be wary of Washington’s notorious
    long arm jurisdiction, which has claimed some very illustrious victims like Toshiba, Alstom, ZTE, with Huawei now fully in the cross hair.

    Nation wise, U.S. has successfully destroyed three peer competitors since ww2, Germany, Jp and the USSR by outright warfare, imperial dictat [the Plaza accord] and thru local compradors. [Yeltsin]

    Moral of the story,
    there’s no international law.
    What we’ve is law of the jungle and uncle sham calls the shot.

    This attempt to take out China by biowarfare is truly beyond the pale, yet par for the course with the fukus ruling class.

    ‘In a 2010 diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks, Johnnie Carson, U.S. assistant secretary for African Affairs, echoed Kerry’s concerns. In fact, Carson went so far as to classify China as a “very aggressive and pernicious economic competitor with no morals.”’

    Say who ?
    The wolf who always cries wolves !

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/hidden-agenda-behind-americas-war-on-africa-containing-china-by-fighting-al-qaeda/5320939

    Faced with such an aggressive, pernicious and amoral predator, China should be prepared for all eventualities, including a nuclear first strike.
    Mind you, some crazies in the Washington cesspool believe nuclear war is winnable, they might even have underground bunkers already built up for such purpose !

    • Replies: @lulu
  272. lulu says:
    @Nuncle

    Listen to this :https://soundcloud.com/media-roots/bannon-tom-cotton-bill-gertz-anti-china-neocon-propaganda-in-the-wake-of-covid19-part-1-of-2 (start from 1:05), tons of information exposes Epoch Times, a tool for/used by right wing China scaremongers.

    Epoch Media Group, New Tang Dynasty Television and Sound of Hope are all part of Falung Gong’s Media empire, which is funded by CIA. Its free newspaper 大纪元 in Chinese has been delivered to all Chinese/Asian shops worldwide, which would be impossible without free money from CIA and/or its front organs)

    – Epoch Times ads account 70% of youtube’s advertisement for the last two months for any random unlogged-in viewers;

    – Epoch Times started to push for Wuhan lab created coronavirus since Feb. 3;

    – Steve Bannon, Bill Gertz, etc. have been frequenting Epoch Times for their anti-China push.

    Jennifer Zeng, Falung Gong follower and Epoch Times reporter, who has been spreading all sorts of lies about China, such as the laughable “alarming truth of 20 million mobile phone numbers disappeared=coronavius deaths, frequently gives speech on right wing meetings.

    (Just in case someone of you wonder why 20 million mobile numbers disappeared:

    – Before 2020, customers had different phone numbers when they opened accounts with each of China Mobile, China Union and China Telecom. Now customers can use the SAME phone numbers when switch between different mobile companies;

    – People, esp. thousands of millions of university/college students and businessmen, used to have several phone numbers to make calls at local rate in different regions. Since last year, mobile phone companies start to use flat rate across all regions, so now there is no need for people to have different phone numbers to benefit from local rates.

    – Finally, China has been rolling out 5G since last year, many places have already upgraded their systmes, and now 4G accounts become obsolete.

  273. lulu says:
    @denk

    Recent days there is a huge push of blacks got racial abused in Guangzhou with a viral video. Lots of Africans are crying out China/Chinese, even African Union consulate was shouting at Chinese officials.

    What is left out by MSM and twitterati is why the locals in Guangzhou went rage against the illegal Africans, who refused to observe the lock-down and social distancing rules: A Nigerian man who tested positive for #COVID19 refused to undergo medical quarantine and assaulted a nurse, beating her and biting her face: https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1245561169986736129

    Details description of what happened by a Nigerian in Guangzhou: https://twitter.com/yellownotwhite/status/1249266002971578370

    • Replies: @denk
    , @Astuteobservor II
  274. denk says:
    @lulu

    The other day there seem to be another case in Shandong , where some Africans jumped queue to get their CV screening, got into quarrel with the locals.
    In the end I think some officials intervened to let the queue jumpers had their way, to the chagrin of the locals.

    China is being hammered from all sides, no shit !

    P.S.
    Did I meet you in GUardian’s comment is free years ago, ?

  275. d dan says:
    @Erebus

    There are still sections of genetic lineage missing, roughly between the bat and the A strain.

    My money now says they’ll stay missing. Or more accurately, they’ll remain a “black box” where an “atypical” genetic leap took place.

    Fame and money are powerful motivating factors for people to working at hard problems. That includes scientists. The curious thing is the lack of curiosity of American scientists to trace the origin of A strain upstream – literally a trillion dollar issue of epic importance.

    • Replies: @Erebus
  276. @Nuncle

    “Epoch Times” — aks “CIA Times”.

    • Replies: @Nuncle
  277. @Valks

    Here’s the make up of the virus:

    [MORE]

    Inside info from George Webb, former US secret operations:

    America’s Dark Legacy With Bioweapons at Fort Detrick

    Benassi, shut down of investigative unit

  278. @Wielgus

    1. “Lockdown” was chosen by western presstitutes to imply the authoritarian nature of the policy. So the CIA media’s implied guilt on Chinese government also makes almost all governments guilty of same. UK withdrew the “herd immunity” policy, so only Sweden retains the freedom for citizens to get infected. (And freedom for the virus to travel freely.)

    2. “Herd immunity” initially came from vaccine makers. Yes, they do see humans as animals.
    Source:
    https://vaccinechoicecanada.com/about-vaccines/general-issues/herd-immunity/herd-immunity-the-misplaced-driver-of-universal-vaccination/

    • Agree: Wielgus
  279. @Been_there_done_that

    Did you read the link in my comment?

    On 31 December 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. From 31 December 2019 through 3 January 2020, a total of 44 case-patients with pneumonia of unknown etiology were reported to WHO by the national authorities in China. During this reported period, the causal agent was not identified.

    The Chinese authority, who learned from their experience with SARS, which has a fatality rate of more than 10%, is much more vigilant than you are. That’s probably the reason they ordered some samples, but not all, being destroyed.

    If all the samples were destroyed, how could China isolate the virus on Jan. 7, then sequence the full genome and share it with the rest of the world on Jan.12? The Caixin article did tell the full story, as I said.

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf

    Wuhan is China’s high tech and high speed rail/traffic hub. Closing one airport will achieve nothing.

  280. @lulu

    I read that. N I was like damn, news are outright lying now. Not even any pretense.

  281. Vidi says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    Notice the total silence from the US scientific community? British and German researchers are doing the heavy lifting.

    What makes that even more remarkable is that the US leads the world in medical science and biology.

    Yet they have zero interest in this research–even as it kills their parents and grandparents.

    Perhaps the US scientists are too vulnerable to funding cutoffs. Not only for their current research (into SARS-CoV-2, for example) but also for the rest of their careers if they do disapproved investigations. Dr Helen Chu of UW probably needs to watch her back.

    I don’t know how to fix this problem, other than for a researcher to get multiple and independent sources of funding, so that pressuring them all will be harder. But even then the researchers would have to watch for physical assaults: they could be JFK’ed, or they could be “persuaded” to commit “suicide” (like Professor Zhang Shoucheng of Stanford, who suspiciously went out at the peak of his career, having gotten much acclaim for many fine achievements). So I don’t know if a fix is possible.

    • Agree: Godfree Roberts
  282. Erebus says:
    @d dan

    Fame and money are powerful motivating factors for people to working at hard problems. That includes scientists.

    Somebody once said that no man wants to learn something if his pay-cheque depends on him not knowing it. It’s no different for scientists.

    Scientists work in academic and commercial labs nowadays.

    They research questions lab mgmt approves and budgets the funds for. The lab itself, especially if it’s an academic lab, depends on its funding from Big Govt and occasionally Big Pharma. The word goes out to lab Mgrs that there’s no money for research into the genetic trail of intermediaries going back to an animal virus, and no mgr will allocate funds for the research.

  283. Erebus says:
    @TT

    I’ve also heard about the CCP’s incentives for farmers, but they’re also pouring money into other sectors.
    Picking a nit…

    …China gov has activated its grassroots to supply lands & resources with 600RMB per mu(acre) incentive to all farmers…

    The is actually about 0.165 US acre (0.06665 hectares). So if your number is right, farmers are actually getting ¥3636/US acre. You can bet they’re very happy with that.

    • Replies: @TT
  284. @Been_there_done_that

    Thanks been there done that-you added good information to a discussion where it seems the majority of readers are easily led into believing whatever Roberts writes.
    Roberts didn’t mention the work at South China U where the Chinese felt the virus slipped out of a lab in Wuhan. I made this sound very simplistic but that is information I got from other research papers.
    There are hundreds of opinions out there and this whole Covid 19 (SARS 2 CoV) can make for a fantastic mystery novel. I would bet that when things get much better , many movies will be made and will be thrillers.

    Too many readers here show their anti USA feelings and their ability to agree with anything that reads authoritative, and too many readers always give away their knee jerk leftist bias. I don’t belong to a political party. I try to find out what the truth is or whatever is closest to the truth.

    Antibeast on Comment 29-where did you get your data from? Did you get it from a reliable scientific source or was it the hearsay that so many bloggers throw in?

    Many commenters say this article is well researched. I don’t see the references. How is it well researched?
    I have read hundreds of articles related to this virus. Writers can be very convincing whether on the left or right but I prefer to stick with articles where proof is given and where investigators gather good genetic and epidemiologic evidence.

    Where does Roberts show real proof?
    There are many scientists, clinicians, epidemiologists, geneticists who present data indicating that the virus likely began in China. Chinese researchers even indicate this. We have so many experts who seem to disagree.

    I am still wondering just how it began. Unlike most readers here I still don’t see anything definitive as to how this pandemic got started.
    When I worked in a scientific field I quietly watched one clinician after another be so sure of themselves and some of us always knew that the more you know you realize that there is so much you don’t know. Most of the time those who were so sure of themselves and made snap diagnoses from their wishful thinking often hurt their patients.

  285. Nuncle says:
    @Human being

    It wouldn’t surprise me – however, I thought it was the Falung Gong’s media outlet.

  286. TT says:
    @Erebus

    Thanks for correcting, now i learn something. ¥3636/US acre, no wonder that farmer had a wide grin on her face.

    CCP put agriculture as their highest priority since Mao era. As they said, filling the stomachs of 1400M is a big matter.

  287. TT says:
    @denk

    Should have shared the video transcript to you. Will be useful for your future quick reference. But its in Chinese.

    https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2S94en9q9EfCKCCC6m2_pw

    • Replies: @denk
  288. gay troll says:
    @Iris

    September 2019, that is a key month. The CDC’s EVALI epidemic “peaked” and started to wane. The Federal Reserve began repurchasing securities from banks who needed liquidity. This is likely when, having let the original virus (from Fort Detrick) pass through the population, they isolated several strains and selected the best one to let loose in Wuhan. This is also the month Dr. Linda Quick’s job in China was “discontinued”. Event 201 and the World Military Games took place the following month. And we have witnessed the U.S. “reaction” to this pandemic.

  289. Seraphim says:
    @Lost american

    They ‘felt’ that the virus ‘likely’ began in China. Therefore it began in China. QED.

  290. Vidi says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    I wonder how China plans to crack the omertà of the US science community–all of whom depend upon the government for grants. ZERO interest in Covid-19 phenotypes.

    Perhaps by encouraging (and funding) non-American researchers to make the breakthroughs. Science is a global effort now. I doubt American researchers would enjoy falling far behind.

  291. Here’s a chart of excess deaths by age group for the past five years.

    Five years hence, will Covid-19 be discernible?

    • Replies: @Iris
  292. A year or so ago, I had what I thought was whooping cough. Part of it was not being able to catch my breath. But I was tested negative.

    A scientific blogger I correspond with said that she also had the same thing, as did several others she knew. Whooping cough that isn’t whooping cough.

    I wonder.

  293. Erebus says:
    @Lost american

    There are many scientists, clinicians, epidemiologists, geneticists who present data indicating that the virus likely began in China.

    I’m sure if you post some links, the gallery here would be pleased to take them into account. For myself, I have yet to encounter any that didn’t assume rather than indicate Wuhan was the source.

  294. Yee says:

    lulu,

    “Recent days there is a huge push of blacks got racial abused in Guangzhou with a viral video. Lots of Africans are crying out China/Chinese, even African Union consulate was shouting at Chinese officials.”

    Nobody abuse the Africans. There has been an alarming number of Africans with Covid-19 showing up in hospital lately. That’s why the city government ordered a test of all African nationals. The result is out today.

    Of the 4553 Afrians in Guangzhou, 111 tested positive, 2.24% of them! That’s an infection rate worse than Wuhan at the peak. I find this horrifying…

    广州4553名非洲籍人员接受新冠检测 111人呈阳性
    https://m.sohu.com/a/387894462_115479

  295. Yee says:

    I really don’t understand why the Africans resist a test. If possible, I’d like everybody in the whole world to test, so we can find out who is infected and who is not, things would have been far easier to handle than not knowing.

  296. @Yee

    As long as the tests are reliable, but from what I read they’re not: not the Chinese ones and not the German ones, and …

  297. antibeast says:
    @Lost american

    Antibeast on Comment 29-where did you get your data from? Did you get it from a reliable scientific source or was it the hearsay that so many bloggers throw in?

    The Chinese researchers were looking into pangolins as the origin of the Covid-19 virus which turned out to be a false lead because the RNA of the Coronavirus carried by pangolins matched only 90% of the RNA of the Covid-19 virus. They also failed to find any animal sold in the Wuhan Wet Market carrying the Covid-19 virus. So that rules out the Wuhan Wet Market as the original source of the animal-to-human transmission of the Covid-19 virus.

    Chinese researchers are not the ones pointing to the USA as the likely origin of the Covid-19 virus but independent researchers all over the world outside of China. There are links to their findings right here on UNZ.com. While the scientific evidence from non-Chinese international sources attests to the non-Chinese origin of the Covid-19 virus, US researchers have largely remained silent and strangely nonchalant while the US Government and the Western Media have decided to exploit this Covid-19 pandemic to defame, malign and castigate China by denying scientific evidence, delaying scientific research and deflecting blame on China.

    The contrast between the rational actions undertaken by the Chinese authorities and the scientific evidence produced by the international community stand in contrast to the massive deceptions and irrational actions being carried out by the US Government and the Western Media. To speculate on conspiracy theories would be an act of futility but to discuss, evaluate and decide on the basis of scientific evidence is the rational thing to do.

    • Agree: Godfree Roberts
    • Replies: @Iris
  298. denk says:
    @TT

    Thanks !
    Chinese is my mother tongue 😉

    BTW,
    This must be one of the main reason why Italy is targeted, besides BRI and 5g !

    https://www.researchitaly.it/en/news/space-italy-china-collaboration-for-manned-flight-signed/#null

    • Replies: @TT
  299. Yee says:

    Commentator Mike,

    “As long as the tests are reliable, but from what I read they’re not: not the Chinese ones and not the German ones,”

    You can run the test twice. That will greatly reduce the faulty rate…

    Anyway, the infection rate of the African community in Guangzhou indicates that there’s no way Africa could contain the epidemic, even if they had competent governments. Because they don’t have co-operating citizens.

    • Replies: @Iris
    , @Alfred
  300. Iris says:
    @antibeast

    Chinese researchers are not the ones pointing to the USA as the likely origin of the Covid-19 virus but independent researchers all over the world outside of China.

    For clarity, the GISAID global database, which information was used for the studies, contains a compilation of thousands of SARS-CoV-2 complete and partial genomes, decoded and contributed by clinicians and researchers from across the world.

    https://www.gisaid.org/

    At the time of writing, 8000+ genomes have been submitted.
    The database is in free access to any researcher, including US geneticists should they wish to verify, challenge any result, or produce their own contradictory study.

    • Thanks: Godfree Roberts
    • Replies: @antibeast
  301. vot tak says:
    @Lost american

    Not a very original trolling technique. Pretending to be “open minded” about the subject while subtly and not so subtly promoting one view.

    • Replies: @Lost american
  302. Iris says:
    @Yee

    Because they don’t have co-operating citizens.

    It is true, and it is not racist to say so. It is a socio-political fact resulting from the almost total historic colonisation of Africa.

    There has been too much violent imperialist meddling in too many African countries, colonisation, coups, executions, foreign military interventions. As a result, state administrations are weak and not trusted by the population. Inconsciously, some view their national state as the continuation of the colonial administration it replace, and don’t show discipline even when public health is at stake.

  303. @vot tak

    I wouldn’t know what a trolling technique is. You must judge everyone by how you think.
    I should have simply said that there are dozens if not hundreds of writers making a case that they have the answers and they contradict each other. Most sound very authoritative but where are their references?
    I didn’t say the things that you want to hear so you call me a troll. I am not good with computers. I will make sure I never again enter comments as everyone is clearly smarter.

    • Replies: @Iris
    , @vot tak
  304. Iris says:
    @Lost american

    I will make sure I never again enter comments as everyone is clearly smarter.

    There was nothing stupid in your comment, as long as you honestly meant what you said.

    Understanding foul politics has nothing to do with one’s intelligence, but with the personal time invested in debunking institutional lies.

    There are lots of unpleasant people one comes across on an “anonymous” (???) thread: trolls swarm in any discussion involving hot topics, some people are disgustingly rude just because they write under a moniker, others are here just to prove they are smarter than most. Interacting with any of those is a complete waste of time and of emotional energy.

    But you will also encounter insightful commenters whose ideas will be a complete illumination, as they will display an original view of things never encountered in books and articles, and discussing with them will enrich both sides in a fantastic dialectics.

    If your goal was to learn, you should not stop commenting. Best wishes and regards.

    • Replies: @Parfois1
  305. @Been_there_done_that

    Look it up. Scientists from 5 nations worked on the genome. Most of China’s cases are “Type B” (which means not the first mutation). Other nations currently have a lot of Type C – which is another mutation after China. Guess where most of Type A is found…. The United States. Look it up.

    • Replies: @TT
  306. @Nuncle

    Yup – the Falun Gong cult strikes again. I wonder how much CIA/NED funding they get to run Epoch Times. In any event – yeah the worse part about them bombing YouTube is that I can’t even seem to disable the ads. It’s non-stop almost. Almost every video I watch has the ads. Most people have no clue Falun Gong runs Epoch Times.

  307. vot tak says:
    @Lost american

    That is a passive-aggressive trolling technique favoured by guardianista websayanim when their biases and duplicity are exposed.

    Regarding the previous comment from “lost american”, the following quotes from it show the various trolling techiques being used by this websayan.

    “you added good information to a discussion where it seems the majority of readers are easily led into believing whatever Roberts writes.”

    A thinly veiled smear against Roberts.

    “Roberts didn’t mention the work at South China U where the Chinese felt the virus slipped out of a lab in Wuhan.”

    Another smear attempt using unsourced material to do so. It implies Roberts avoided important material. One will notice the websayan cleverly avoid sourcing this material, while implying it is top notch credible here:

    “I made this sound very simplistic but that is information I got from other research papers.”

    The above was intended to discredit Roberts and what he wrote. One will notice the websayan carefully avoided specifics in the smear and kept it general. A one size fits all type of smearing technique that avoids the websayan having to justify a specific lie on their part.

    “There are hundreds of opinions out there…blah, blah, blah…many movies will be made and will be thrillers.”

    Filler to disingenuously establish the websayan’s open mindedness and disinterest in any specific pov. To set the stage for what follows.

    “Too many readers here show their anti USA feelings”

    Standand smear against those who disagree with the u.s. government official propaganda and or right wing propaganda.

    “and their ability to agree with anything that reads authoritative”

    They hate america, follow “authority”, because they are:

    “and too many readers always give away their knee jerk leftist bias.”

    Leftists, of course. And naturally “they hate us because of our freedoms”.

    “I don’t belong to a political party.”

    No of course not.

    “I try to find out what the truth is or whatever is closest to the truth.”

    The smear followed by insistence of being neutral. Just an angel looking for the truth…

    “Many commenters say this article is well researched. I don’t see the references. How is it well researched?
    I have read hundreds of articles related to this virus. Writers can be very convincing whether on the left or right but I prefer to stick with articles where proof is given and where investigators gather good genetic and epidemiologic evidence.

    Where does Roberts show real proof?
    There are many scientists, clinicians, epidemiologists, geneticists who present data indicating that the virus likely began in China. Chinese researchers even indicate this. We have so many experts who seem to disagree.”

    Back to trying to discredit Roberts, using that generalized smearing technique. No specifics, using generalized, and false, claims and no sources provided to back the diarrhea up.

    “I am still wondering just how it began. Unlike most readers here I still don’t see anything definitive as to how this pandemic got started.
    When I worked in a scientific field I quietly watched one clinician after another be so sure of themselves and some of us always knew that the more you know you realize that there is so much you don’t know. Most of the time those who were so sure of themselves and made snap diagnoses from their wishful thinking often hurt their patients.”

    Concluding remarks to further establish the websayan’s credibity as a neutral observer with no axe to grind while it simultaneously implies most readers of the blog do have an axe to grind.

    These are not the ramblings of a guy honestly in the dark seeking answers, but the efforts of someone experienced in webtrolling techniques attempting to discredit the article writer, Roberts, and the views he presents in the article. While at the same time smear other comment writers who express agreement with Roberts as anti-american, dupes, lead by the nose and horror of horrors, possibly even being leftists.

    A lot of what the websayan wrote about other comment writers and readers of this site is of the one size fits all sort these webtrolls use on sites where they are not yet familiar with the make up of those frequenting the site.

  308. TT says:
    @showmethereal

    Only the evil empire sibling Australia has predominant “A” strain too.

    Type B is prevalent in EU & UK, similar to China’s. Whereas Asia outside China, Type C is more common.

    Did someone release different strains on different regions after cultured in Labs?

    https://www.techtimes.com/amp/articles/248721/20200410/coronavirus-has-three-distinct-strains-according-to-study-us-suffering-from-original-variation.htm

    Two-thirds of the samples acquired from the U.S. showed that they have a Type A novel coronavirus and that the infected patients did not come from New York, which is considered an epicenter of the COVID-19 infection in the U.S.

    Instead, most of the patients came from the West Coast.

    Type B Coronavirus is More Common in Europe
    Meanwhile, the Type B strain of the coronavirus is more prevalent in Europe, specifically in the United Kingdom, with three-quarters of the samples from the country testing positive for the strain.

    Countries like Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, France, and Germany also have dominant cases of Type B coronavirus strain.

    On the other hand, Type C coronavirus strain is also common in some places in Europe as well as in Asia, specifically in Singapore. This strain is the “daughter” of Type B and is just one mutation different from it.

    • Replies: @Seraphim
  309. vot tak says:

    Chinese scientists identify drug that reduces risk of severe pneumonia during Covid-19 infection

    https://www.rt.com/news/485804-china-coronavirus-drugs-pneumonia/

    “A group of Chinese medics studying 564 coronavirus patients, including 61 with acute pneumonia, in several hospitals across the country during January and February, have discovered an interesting pattern.

    Their paper ( https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057539v1 ), published on the MerRix website but not yet peer-reviewed, reveals that certain drugs usually prescribed for hypertension have apparently proven effective in preventing severe pneumonia from Covid-19.

    Only 6.3 percent of the hypertensive patients who were given angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, or angiotensin-receptor blockers (ACEI/ARB), suffered from a pneumonia complication while infected by the coronavirus, according to their data.

    However, among those who received alternative blood pressure treatment, the number of people with acute lung fever stood at 32.7 percent. The Chinese scientists also pointed out that “nonspecific antiviral therapy did not prevent clinical progression to severe pneumonia.”

    Hypertensive patients on ACEI or ARB may be protective from severe pneumonia in Covid-19 and hence these therapies should not be ceased unless there is a strong indication or further epidemiological evidence.

    The authors of the paper said that the results they’ve produced weren’t final and that further study was required.

    Chinese medical workers have a unique insight on treating the coronavirus, after their country became not only the first to report cases of the highly contagious disease, but also to curb the epidemic’s progress.”

    Good news.

  310. TT says:
    @denk

    Of course there are more reasons. But is this that touch Trumps’ nerve, MIC2025 trade war wanted to kill?

    https://beltandroad.ventures/beltandroadblog/2018/05/13/china-italy-innovation-collaboration-synergies-and-roadblocks

    These sectors are also major pillars of Made in China 2025, China’s grand plan to upgrade its industrial sector through embracing technological innovation.

    While China is investing heavily in upgrading its manufacturing sector, it still has a long way to go. Italy’s world leading know-how in industrial machinery and additive manufacturing technologies could help support the realization of Made in China 2025.

    And Italian does has some good technologies in various fields, not just the flashy Ferrari .They also have semiconductor & microelectronics knowhow, such as SGS Thomson.

    IEG: Italy-China exchange of green technologies, collaboration with Caepi signed at Ecomondo
    https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/77548/IEG-Italy-China-exchange-of-green-technologies-collaboration-with-Caepi

    The Application of CCS Technology in China: Lesson from the Sino-Italy Collaboration on Coal Fired Power Plants
    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/272380945_The_Application_of_CCS_Technology_in_China_Lesson_from_the_Sino-Italy_Collaboration_on_Coal_Fired_Power_Plants

    Why Did Italy
    Embrace the Belt and Road Initiative?
    https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/05/20/why-did-italy-embrace-belt-and-road-initiative-pub-79149

    EU has openly warned Italy against joining BRI that may jeopardize its bargain power aka blackmailing with China.

    Italy rattles US and EU with likely support for China’s Belt and Road
    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/20/italy-rattles-us-and-eu-with-likely-support-for-chinas-belt-and-road

    Italy joining China’s Belt and Road project is ‘geopolitically unwise,’ former prime minister says
    https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/03/25/italy-joining-chinas-belt-and-road-project-is-unwise-former-pm.html

    This is how Italy slapped USNato:
    https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/it-forrel-ru.htm

    Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini of the far-right League party looked to forge close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin and has paid several visits to Moscow in recent years. He has repeatedly denounced EU economic sanctions on Russia and pledged to try to overturn them.

    Putin visited Rome in July 2019 and praised Salvini, telling Corriere della Sera newspaper he was “in constant contact” with the League.

    “Salvini has a welcoming attitude towards our country,” the Russian leader said. Both Salvini and Savoini attended a dinner thrown by the Italian government to honor the visiting Putin.

    • Replies: @denk
  311. Seraphim says:
    @TT

    And in Australia the ‘type A’ comes definitely from America.

    • Replies: @TT
  312. Parfois1 says:
    @Iris

    If your goal was to learn, you should not stop commenting.

    You are very forbearing … and diplomatic. However, the commenter you addressed does not appear to have the goal of learning; if so, there are copious amounts of material referenced here for any one with an open mind to grasp the issues surrounding the most probable origin of the CV-19 virus in its several dimensions: genetic, ideological, political, economic and geostrategic, even militarily because the ramifications of the “operation” would also affect the warfare capacity of the confronting powers.

    It is hard to isolate CV-19 to being a simple scientific event separated from the overall geostrategic environment if one takes into account the myriad of factors surrounding its occurrence. The sequence of events bearing on and prior to the release of the virus, probably starting with the “Pivot to Asia” (obviously meaning China), the faux moratoria on biowarfare research and subsequent subcontracting that role offshore and underground, the naming of several Chinese researchers charged for being “caught with unlawful” laboratory samples, closing down of Fort Detrick (probably a hoax to prove innocence), Event 201 (coincidental with the Wuhan Military Games) and many other coincidences make a solid compact case for the prosecution that the US ruling elite have their fingerprints all over the CV-19 thing.

    When investigating a crime, the detective does not only look for the medico-legal (forensic) evidence. He needs to construct his case from all material angles bearing on the crime, from the psychology of the actors, inclinations, relationships, motivation, material benefits, capacities, opportunities and up to their religious/eschatological beliefs. It’s an all encompassing task the scientific part of which is only to hammer home to the lay jury that the case is beyond reasonable doubt. But even that “smoking gun” evidence can doctored one day or the other and the only guidance leading to the criminal is the totality of logical and reasonable inferences derived from the circumstantial evidence available.

    There was a little piece of deja vue which alerted me to something being manufactured about this pandemic. Very early there was a Johns Hoskins University’s sophisticated computer display of infections and fatalities, which I found very surprising for a simple outbreak of a strain of flu that had barely touched the US, if at all, at the time. Why? Later somebody reported the “Event 201” and the penny dropped.

    The “Lost American” is not only lost, he’s blind. We (I say this in jest!), the sages, can see with our hearts…and minds. The eyes (organs easily deceived) are only for the scientists.

    • Thanks: Iris
    • Replies: @Seraphim
  313. Iris says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    GISAID is an organisation maintaining a global database compiling thousands of SARS-CoV-2 genomes contributed by clinicians and researchers from across the world. This genetic information is available for free to any scientist; this where the Cambridge study raw data was obtained from.

    GISAID is run by Germany, funded by the EU and the USA. It has a “preferred” partnership with a team of geneticists and programmers called NextStrain, who run their own Phylogenetic Tree to describe the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

    NextStrain don’t provide any interpretation of the data trending,; they just plot the genomes, using a Phylogenetic Tree. Below is the last version of their trending as of 18 March 2020.

    (NextStrain present the information under the form of a conventional Phylogenetic tree with horizontal evolution lines, while the Cambridge team used a radial tree format, which is more correct as the “bat” root of the mutation is not fully identified.)

    By comparing with the Cambridge study, one can see that, roughly, from left to right hand side, the horizontal purple lines are the A strain, the khaki lines the B strain, and the red lines the C strain.

    One can play with the interactive report, and select a country, a lab, a location to narrow down a research:
    https://www.gisaid.org/epiflu-applications/next-hcov-19-app/

    Selecting USA as country, for instance, will bring up a large concentration of sampled genomes on the red (Strain A/West Coast) and khaki (Strain C/NYC) lines.

    Even more interestingly, selecting successively USA, then Australia, then China, will show that the countries’ samples corresponding dots (crimson, light blue and dark purple) fill up almost all of the early records of strain A, to the left side of the purple lines.

    One should take screenshots of those overlaying graphs before they get altered, as they too prove that the early strains were found only in China, the US and Australia, which in turn indicates the virus travelled to China, not off China.

  314. Seraphim says:
    @Parfois1

    The hearts, yes, but guts also.

  315. antibeast says:
    @Iris

    At the time of writing, 8000+ genomes have been submitted. The database is in free access to any researcher, including US geneticists should they wish to verify, challenge any result, or produce their own contradictory study.

    Yes, I know. But where are the US scientists? Why aren’t they conducting their own scientific research “to verify, challenge any result, or produce their own contradictory study”? All we hear from the US Government and the Western Media are the 3Ds — Denial, Delay and Deflection — instead of rational discussion of the scientific evidence presented by international researchers based on objective analysis of empirical data.

  316. @Iris

    One can play with the interactive report, and select a country, a lab, a location to narrow down a research:

    I tried this and saw that the base of the tree on the left side, with its initial branching in December, is simply “inferred“.

    Hovering over the initial reports (purple dots) along two separate branches (December 24 and 26) relate to China. The earliest report from the USA (red dot) is January 19, and the earliest report from Australia (light blue dot) is January 8.

    This is peculiar in itself because during the early dates the virus had not been sequenced yet. So the report must have been generated later from frozen samples or done posthumously.

    Furthermore, the chronological viral transmission progression on the map clearly originates in China. Lastly, the graph makes no explicit references to the A-B-C strain scheme that you postulated, other than showing lines in three colors.

    My observations of the graph do not correspond with your description of it. You have not explained how any of this (including the graph you posted yourself) “proves” your claim that the virus traveled to China instead of originating there.

    • Replies: @Iris
    , @antibeast
  317. @Iris

    Very useful. Many thanks!

    • Replies: @PandaAtWar
  318. Iris says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    Lastly, the graph makes no explicit references to the A-B-C strain scheme that you postulated, other than showing lines in three colors.

    You are lagging because you joined the discussion late, but still talk to people arrogantly.

    Everybody discussing this topic knows that the A, B and C strains were identified in a separate, more specific and better interpreted PNAS Cambridge survey.

    https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117/tab-figures-data

    • Replies: @Been_there_done_that
  319. antibeast says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    Furthermore, the chronological viral transmission progression on the map clearly originates in China. Lastly, the graph makes no explicit references to the A-B-C strain scheme that you postulated, other than showing lines in three colors.

    The map shows the chronological discovery of the viral genomes not the chronological viral transmission progression with color codes for each country reporting their discovery. China was the first country to report its discovery of the viral genomes but that doesn’t imply that the virus originated there. The links between the countries refer to the phylogenetic network which is the genetic commonality of the viral genomes in each country. The map shows the time when the genomes were discovered and their genetic links with each other.

  320. @Iris

    You have been suggesting that the A-strain did not come from China and therefore it must have originated in America:

    …which in turn indicates the virus travelled to China, not off China.

    You referred to two sources, both of which I have checked out. I have found no evidence for that supposition from the chronological tree data, nor from the genome network analysis from a few days ago. I think the following quote pertains to the A-strain you alluded to, and I have highlighted pertinent parts in bold:

    There are two subclusters of A which are distinguished by the synonymous mutation T29095C. In the T-allele subcluster, four Chinese individuals (from the southern coastal Chinese province of Guangdong) carry the ancestral genome, while three Japanese and two American patients differ from it by a number of mutations. These American patients are reported to have had a history of residence in the presumed source of the outbreak in Wuhan. The C-allele subcluster sports relatively long mutational branches and includes five individuals from Wuhan, two of which are represented in the ancestral node, and eight other East Asians from China and adjacent countries. It is noteworthy that nearly half (15/33) of the types in this subcluster, however, are found outside East Asia, mainly in the United States and Australia.

    In light of two million reported cases already, the sample sizes cited are rather low and inconclusive.

    According to Professor Boyle of the University of Illinois, as recently quoted by Paul Craig Roberts, a part of the alleged Wuhan weaponized virus came from North Carolina, and another part from Australia. I have no idea if this genome network would be including alleged component parts too.

    In any case, your assertion quoted above is not really warranted by the data you referred to.

  321. denk says:
    @TT

    Wow !

    Italy’s seven deadly sins, if you need another one…

    https://ahtribune.com/world/europe/3880-italy-to-kick-out-steve-bannon.html

    Can you imagine uncle sham frothing at his mouth over the Italiano’s ‘impertinence ! ‘

    P.S.
    Italy’s robotics is also world class.

    • Agree: TT
  322. Herald says:
    @Lost american

    I am still wondering just how it began. Unlike most readers here I still don’t see anything definitive as to how this pandemic got started.

    The chances of definitive irrefutable smoking gun evidence coming to light are very low.

    If this deed is the result of We need to look at the circumstantial evidence and importantly cui bono. Then consider the amount of money spent on bioweapon research, also any previous use of bio/chemical/nuclear weapons and so the list of likely suspect automatically then becomes extremely short.

  323. TT says:
    @Seraphim

    Did not Oz PM claimed all its 80% infected type A comes from US? Who know US may counterclaim Oz is the source since they have tens of thousands bats flying into cities during forest fire last year…

    But where did Type A in US come from then?

    Is it not possible in the US lab, scientists extracted the Coronavirus from bat to infect a monkey. Then let the mutated virus “jump” to humans using vaccines program. Next extract the virus strain from these patients. Let it further mutated into few versions of various lethality.

    This virus will has completed its natural evolution without been detectable as Lab altered virus.

    They are now ready to be deployed in either a aerosol spray no larger than a lighter, or a group of “Herd Immune” military soldiers as carriers despatch to Wuhan, EU, … port callings, cruise, ..

    The 1918-19 bacterial vaccine experiment may have killed 50-100 million people
    by Kevin Barry, President
    First Freedoms, Inc.
    http://themillenniumreport.com/2018/11/spanish-flu-of-1918-was-really-a-bioterror-attack-on-humanity/

    In 1918, Rockefeller institution injected US soldiers with Coronavirus, sent them to Europe battlefields to devastate Europe killing 100M. When Spain first detected, US called it Spanish Flu for a century.

    Did Rockefeller repeated the same trick, with Chinese the unlucky one to detect first this time?

    • Replies: @Ber
    , @Seraphim
    , @denk
  324. TT says:
    @Iris

    Just my curiosity, why is Cambridge researchers reported only three strains= ABC, while the Chinese researcher reported 5 strains =ABCDE earlier?

    • Replies: @Iris
  325. Sammyboy says:

    Damn, you had me until the postscript about Linus Pauling and vitamin C. Pauling may have been a Nobel Prize winning chemist, but he was not a physician or even an expert in the biological sciences. I was a young physician at the time that he was extolling the wonders of vitamin C for treating diseases ranging from cancer to the common cold. None of his claims was ever confirmed by empiric evidence, and it wasn’t for lack of trying. In the final analysis, Pauling was a self-aggrandizing mountebank.

  326. @Godfree Roberts

    A short interview of Dr Peter Forster on his findings by Dr Yuan, a chemical physicist of The University of Science and Technology of China:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ge33OP-8rU4&feature=youtu.be

    • Thanks: Godfree Roberts, Erebus
  327. Herald says:
    @Sammyboy

    None of his claims was ever confirmed by empiric evidence, and it wasn’t for lack of trying. In the final analysis, Pauling was a self-aggrandizing mountebank.

    It would be helpful direct us to some of the extensive research you refer to, which was directed at using Vitamin C in megadoses.

  328. @Sammyboy

    His collaboration with a renowned clinician, Ewan Cameron, produced this paper: Supplemental ascorbate in the supportive treatment of cancer: Reevaluation of prolongation of survival times in terminal human cancer* Ewan Cameron† and Linus Pauling‡. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1978 Sep;
    doi: 10.1073/pnas.75.9.4538

    Then Ewan Cameron’s memoir of what followed: http://scarc.library.oregonstate.edu/coll/cameron/cameron-personal/page1.html

    Then Pharma: Greed, Lies, and the Poisoning of America by Gerald Posner. The latter horror story explains why Americans are the unhealthiest people on earth.

  329. Ber says:
    @TT

    “Did not Oz PM claimed all its 80% infected type A comes from US? “

    Is the OZ PM suggesting that the remaining 20% originated in Australia since OZ’s count is totally of the A strain?

  330. @Iris

    Are you interested in collaborating on an article about the origin of Covid-19 and the (possible) differences in lethality of the different strains?

    Peter Forster’s research is getting a lot of play and, in a couple of weeks, when the article is ready, the time should be ripe. If you’re up for it, use the contact link at thailandretirementhelpers.com.

  331. glib says:
    @Sammyboy

    Far from me supporting megadoses of vitamin C, but it is clear that an immune system under attack generates a lot of toxins to kill invaders. Specifically, water peroxide, which is extremely oxidizing. Megadoses of anti-oxidants will spare the body the oxidation damage it would otherwise receive, and give indirect help to the immune system, since free radicals do interfere with the immune system operation. 99.7% of people exposed to covid get rid of the virus just with their immune system after all.

  332. Iris says:
    @TT

    Hi TT; I think that “Strain” is a catchword us, members of the public, use when in fact for geneticists it means a set of viruses close enough on a continuous genetic scale to be considered a cluster.

    The letter correspond to a cluster identified and named in a way that is arbitrary and specific to the researcher.

    Also, the Feb 2020 Chinese genomic study had only 90+ genomes available, while the Cambridge study which came later in March benefited from a richer database and used 160 samples.
    They were both trying to guess the picture of a jigsaw puzzle constituting the virus’ evolutionary path, and the second team had more pieces so may be was able to better identify the contour of the clusters

    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Wen-Bin_Yu2/publication/339351990/figure/fig1/AS:[email protected]/Evolutionary-relationships-and-geographical-distribution-of-58-haplotypes-of-SARS-CoV-2.ppm

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339351990_Decoding_the_evolution_and_transmissions_of_the_novel_pneumonia_coronavirus_SARS-CoV-2_using_the_whole_genomic_data

    The results from both teams are not in contradiction, the contrary. Both teams found, using separate mathematical methods and software, roughly the same pattern of clusters. If anything, this is proof that their results are valid, as different methods led to similar results.

    • Replies: @Seraphim
    , @Parfois1
    , @TT
  333. Seraphim says:
    @TT

    It is a shrewd observation. I should have thought of it, the more that dead bats were left to rot for days in a park next to my house, on a street that, albeit rather central, is systematically avoided by the local Council for cleaning.
    In actual fact the Ruby Princess was already infected on its previous voyage which started also from Sydney.
    Let’s hope that the criminal investigation would shed some light.

    • Replies: @TT
  334. d dan says:
    @Erebus

    Professor 翟东升 has a much more pessimistic view about this “reparations” issue than you think [link below]. He thinks the chance of this happening is higher than most people believe. It is no longer a fringe political thinking in US. For example, Lindsey Graham, a powerful senator, has been talking about this. Larry Kudlow toys with the idea of using taxpayer money to underwrite 100% of expenses for US companies to move out of China (perhaps as preparation for this new economic war). Further, as demonstrated by his behavior during the trade war, Trump does NOT care about the interests of US multi-national companies. Like many nationalists, he thinks those companies are treasonous.

    “The ruling would be patently political. With the evidence we now see building in its favour, only a kangaroo court could find it guilty in any way. China, supported by its allies Russia, Iran, and doubtless a few others that can read the tea leaves, will ignore the ruling.”

    翟东升 thinks that US does not have to initiate the legal process. They can simply use national “emergency” power to freeze China’s assets. (As you may already know, Trump abuse the “emergency” power like nothing. He used that power to ban Huawei last year. Also, US has frozen many countries’ assets before e.g. Iran, Libya, etc, and more recently, threaten to do so for Iraq). When this happens, it becomes China’s “legal burden” to sue US government to unfreeze those assets – and good luck with that.

    “… China other than tit-for-tat asset seizures…”

    The problem with that is the fact that US investments in China is much lesser than most people understand. American likes to rave about US helping China, but the overall US assets in China is definitely much less than 1 trillion – the amount of reserves that China holds that is subjected to US freezing. The tit-for-tat will see China running out of bullet very fast.

    I would leave it to you to watch the video to see what 翟东升 thinks is China’s best response:

    • Replies: @antibeast
    , @Vidi
  335. denk says:

    How conveeenient that while the Whiteys and their Indian satraps are clamoring for ‘reparations’, a ‘whistle blower’ in China has published her ‘Wuhan Dairy‘ in English and German.

    The book is a scathing critique of CCP’s purported mishandling and cover up of the Wuhan outbreak.
    It is receiving rave reviews in Germnay and FUKUS.
    They are calling this as EVIDENCE of CCP
    ‘criminal incompetence’ which inflicted this disaster on the entire world.

    Could this be the biggest bird thIS CV caper intends to fry. ??

    • Replies: @Been_there_done_that
  336. denk says:
    @TT

    Who know US may counterclaim Oz is the source since they have tens of thousands bats flying into cities during forest fire last year

    Some Chinese nitizens are asking why did Shi Zheng Li ‘donate’ thousands of bats to her murikkan ‘colleagues’ for ‘research’ ???

    • Replies: @TT
  337. Seraphim says:
    @Iris

    Funnily, ‘Strain’ is short for Australian.

  338. Erebus says:
    @Iris

    I think you’re over-interpreting the data. The nodes in these phylogenetic matrices are related to geography only insofar as the genome at that node was sequenced at a particular geographical location.

    Both A & B were first found in Wuhan. That doesn’t mean they first appeared there, but it also doesn’t mean that one or both of them didn’t, much less that one appeared earlier in the US specifically. The phylogenetic tree simply makes no claim in this regard.

    Put another way, phylogenetic analysis makes no claims about what happened between the first sequencing event (Wuhan, 12-24) and the external stimulus (in this case a “bat”).

    It is only when the intermediary genomes going back from Wuhan 12-24 A to the” bat” get sequenced that we’ll start being able to point to where that “bat” was physically located. Whether that proves to be a bat cave in Yunnan, or in Ft. Detrick, or Wuhan’s Institute of Virology, or some other place that we haven’t even considered is unknown. IOW, we really don’t have anything .

    However…

    In the video, Forster says that SARS-2’s mutation rate indicates Strain A surfaced in humans no earlier than Sept 13 and as late as Dec 14. Given the mutation rate we’ve seen since Dec 24, his window is wide enough for 2 or more pre-A strains to have emerged so unless A was uncharacteristically stable during that period (not impossible) I’d expect his 95% confidence level bell curve to be heavily skewed towards the centre. The date lying dead centre of his window is of course Oct 31, immediately after the Games. Not knowing what that bell curve looks like, I’d guess the two weeks on either side of Oct 31 would share in the skew.

    If so, we see that the phylogenetic analytical model lends indirect, but scientifically robust support to one of the principal theories floating around, namely that the Games had a central role in the outbreak.

    Now that is interesting.

    • Replies: @Been_there_done_that
  339. antibeast says:
    @d dan

    翟东升 thinks that US does not have to initiate the legal process. They can simply use national “emergency” power to freeze China’s assets. (As you may already know, Trump abuse the “emergency” power like nothing. He used that power to ban Huawei last year. Also, US has frozen many countries’ assets before e.g. Iran, Libya, etc, and more recently, threaten to do so for Iraq). When this happens, it becomes China’s “legal burden” to sue US government to unfreeze those assets – and good luck with that.

    The USA freezing the USD assets of China will force it to dump the USD in its foreign trade and investment as it could be denied access to those USD assets. But the USA will also suffer because its economy is dependent upon the Petrodollar System. Remember that China buying USD assets is part of the Petrodollar System upon which the US debt-based economy is based.

    In the case of Iran, Libya, Venezuela, etc., the USA competes against those oil-producing economies. So blocking or shutting those competitors from the global oil market is a net positive for US Shale Oil. They’re too small to affect the USA so sanctioning them doesn’t hurt the US economy. But Saudi Arabia and Russia are different because these two are the world’s largest oil producers, together with the USA. So even though the USA has imposed financial sanctions on Russia, those sanctions were limited to select Russia citizens and Russian corporations. The USA freezing the USD assets of Russia would have forced it to dump the USD in its foreign trade and investment. But would only pave the way for the end of the Petrodollar, something the USA to maintain at all costs.

    • Replies: @d dan
  340. Parfois1 says:
    @Iris

    The results from both teams are not in contradiction, the contrary. Both teams found, using separate mathematical methods and software, roughly the same pattern of clusters. If anything, this is proof that their results are valid, as different methods led to similar results.

    Thank you for explaining the different categories of reported strains. I did notice that apparent discrepancy and relied on the authority of the publishers that there was no inconsistency. Luckily we have you to clarify in clear lay language our doubts.

    However, recent developments (such as the realization that CV-19’s lethality is almost within normal range to other varieties of seasonal infections) do not agree with the notion of an aggressive biological attack designed to cripple or severely undermine an “adversary power”. It does not lead to the rejection of the hypothesis of an ill-intent – it may have been planned to achieve other ends (eg. testing defensive responses, a lesser virulent dry-run, causing an economic-financial re-booting, maybe an incremental multi-staged mega-operation, a botched cock-up, etc.) – but it leaves open the question of the ultimate objective. Time will tell. Cheers

    • Replies: @Iris
  341. @Erebus

    I’d expect his 95% confidence level bell curve to be heavily skewed towards the centre. The date lying dead centre of his window is of course Oct 31, immediately after the Games.

    Inferring a time for human emergence that spans a period of four full months, based on tweaking certain parameters in some software, with hardly any reliable genome information from that early period as inputs, seems a little like fuzzy mental masturbation.

    Whatever curve arises from such manipulations will certainly NOT be a bell curve (symmetrical, Gaussian) but a different curve with a shape strongly skewed toward the latter period of time in December, especially when also factoring in the rate of viral spread, which was apparently not part of Forster’s model, but for which there is much more reliable empirical data.

    Now that is interesting.

    It is interesting how this will be hyped up, though it smells like a “nothing-burger”. The video mentioning the Chinese media interest essentially confirmed that they are in a frenzy to conduct damage control by redirection and are therefore willing to grasp at anything to present to those eager to believe it.

    Still, this early strain investigation essentially rules out the most speculative narrative that many here latched onto, of the virus having originated in July or August in Maryland last year.

    • Replies: @Erebus
  342. @denk

    The book is a scathing critique of CCP’s purported mishandling and cover up of the Wuhan outbreak.

    The diary of “Fang Fang” became popular within mainland China, otherwise they wouldn’t have bothered with published translations. According to the publisher it will not be available until June 30:

    https://www.harpercollins.com/9780063052635/wuhan-diary/

    An excerpt from the NYTimes doesn’t appear to be so scathing by western standards:

    The enemy isn’t just the virus. We’re also our own enemies or accomplices in crime. It’s being said that many people are only now waking up, startled to grasp that it’s meaningless to yell empty slogans day in and day out about how amazing our country is, to grasp the total ineptitude of those officials who spend their days in political study and bloviating, and can’t get a real job done.

    If she had not written this and gained such acclaim within China by those who shared her views, perhaps those officials would not have gotten demoted by the leadership ten days later. See here for report:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/international/analysis-china-hubei-officials-sacked-xi-jinping-protected-2020-2/

    • Replies: @vot tak
  343. Iris says:
    @Parfois1

    and relied on the authority of the publishers that there was no inconsistency

    Dear Parfois; for clarity, genetics is not my area and I don’t pretend to understand it. But the geneticists use a combination of maths, statistics and programming to outline their Phylogenetic trees, so we all can understand the logics behind their work.

    I think that the study by Pr Forster is provoking a lot of attention, not only because of the result he obtained indicating there is no evidence the virus started in China, but also because the method he utilised has been proven to yield accurate results:

    character-based phylogenetic networks [is] the method of choice for reconstructing their [viruses] evolutionary paths and their ancestral genome in the human host. The network method has been used in around 10,000 phylogenetic studies of diverse organisms,

    While it is not an exact science, a method proven by so many successful genetic network reconstruction works, and utilised by an expert, is going to be very difficult to refute.

    However, recent developments (such as the realization that CV-19’s lethality is almost within normal range to other varieties of seasonal infections) do not agree with the notion of an aggressive biological attack designed to cripple or severely undermine an “adversary power”

    A French mathematician has well summarised the problem. Covid-19 seems to have high contamination capabilities, with a Reproduction number Ro in a range between 2,5 to 5,5.
    What makes it so different is the long asymptomatic phase that can go up to 2 weeks. During this phase, there could be a silent and accelerated spread of the contamination going unnoticed among the population, and resulting suddenly in a high number of patients simultaneously overwhelming health services and hospitals.
    To avoid such scenarios, the main lever public health authorities can use is to artificially maintain the Ro around 1, by applying lockdowns that greatly disturb socio-economic life.

    Even if it is not as lethal as feared, this is a terrible, awfully crippling disease which will negatively impact our lives for months, if not years. It is diabolical and satanical. And because it will not go away quickly, it will also provoke a global political reckoning, with risk of major showdowns.
    May be that was the goal, and the pandemic is certainly leading to such indirect outcome.Best.

  344. Erebus says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    Inferring a time for human emergence that spans a period of four full months…

    Umm, mid-Sept to mid-Dec is 3 months, not 4.

    … based on tweaking certain parameters in some software…

    It comes straight out of Strain A’s observed mutation rate. If Strain A was mutating at a certain rate, how long it took to produce Strain B isn’t just “tweaking parameters in some software”. It’s looking at the rate of change and the rate of change^2 in Strain A’s forward going history and extrapolating backwards. It’s the less predictable rate of change^2 that widens the window and puts the “tails” on both sides of the curve.

    I agree that it’s unlikely to be symmetrical. The curves I deal with rarely are even though they’re often centred. I called it a “bell curve” as a generic catch-all for the type of curve I’d expect to see and readers can visualize – a peak of probability with declining probability to the left and right. And yes, I’d expect to see peak probability roughly centred with asymmetrical tails. The “fatter” tail reflecting the higher probability heading into Dec.

    Obviously, viral spread affects mutation rate, but I’m not clear that he didn’t consider it. Probability and mutation rates are the bread ‘n butter of genetics, so it would surprise me if his probability model ignored it.

    Scientists of Forster’s and his colleague’s calibre aren’t prone to indulging in “fuzzy mental masturbation” and I haven’t seen any of his professional peers accuse him of it. Have you seen any, or are you the first?

    Still, this early strain investigation essentially rules out the most speculative narrative that many here latched onto, of the virus having originated in July or August in Maryland last year.

    Had you understood the phylogenetic model he presents, you’d understand that Forster’s analysis doesn’t “rule out” anything of the sort. Instead it treats everything coming before Strain A (Wuhan 12-24) as a black box, including the “bat”. You may have noticed his comment that the model barely changed when he put in a pangolin instead.

    IOW, Wuhan 12-24 is the model’s Day 0, and there isn’t a Day -1. The “bat” is a placeholder to stimulate the model’s analysis. Strain(s) pre-A1 (pre-A2, pre-A-3, etc) that may eventually find their place between Wuhan 12-24 and the “bat” are unknowns that are simply outside the analysis. The model has nothing to say about the “bat’s” whereabouts, what Strains came between it and Wuhan 12-24, or how long it took to get from one to the other.

  345. d dan says:
    @antibeast

    “But the USA will also suffer because its economy is dependent upon the Petrodollar System. “

    Agree that this will be a lose-lose situation between US and China. But the point of the professor is that Trump and neo-con have the penchant to resort in lose-lose move (e.g. trade wars with every one, sanctions of various countries, etc) – always thinking they are still the top-dog in the world, and therefore could easily crush any resistance. So this is not a small chance event to be simply ignored.

    I believe China, and the rest of the world, and even private US citizens and companies need to have contingency plans in case this materializes. Don’t wait until the day when US dollar is not accepted for purchase of face mask to start complaining.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  346. @Erebus

    …spans a period of four full months…

    …mid-Sept to mid-Dec is 3 months, not 4.

    Yes, thanks for the correction. It was sloppy editing on my part; I later inserted the word “full” without having decreased the corresponding number of months.

    …isn’t just “tweaking parameters in some software”

    I saw one of these papers, and they certainly do use software, which depends on certain inputs (parameters), which may not necessarily be precise, or contain mean or aggregate values, so there is certainly room for “playing” with the data.

    …Forster’s analysis doesn’t “rule out” anything of the sort.

    Of course that’s technically true, but practically the probability of a summer viral release from Maryland, as some people have been obsessed in wanting to believe as the source of the outbreak, is so insignificant, based on his model, as to be ridiculous, though I suppose it will not stop them from continuing to dwell on that concocted narrative.

    Then, as soon as the probability of an intentional viral release, for various reasons, as opposed to an accident, is discounted, the Wuhan Military Games as an accompanying backdrop becomes irrelevant.

    It is already bad enough that the US government had been funding the dangerous lab research done in Wuhan.

    • Replies: @Erebus
    , @denk
  347. @Yee

    Why are Africans in China unwilling to do tests? You have to go back to the era of HIV/AIDS. Africans know that a test means poverty and death. HIV/AIDS was a scam/hoax. When the “test” is administered, it showed “HIV positive” which follows with the expensive drug AZT and then death. History is strong in African minds.
    http://whale.to/b/hiv.html

  348. Erebus says:

    Here’s an article published by Nassim Taleb et al on Jan 26, 2020: Systemic Risk via Novel Pathogens.

    China’s engineering based politicians, and what must be a similar mindset permeating the civil service including the public health authorities, got it right. I have no idea whether they noticed the article at the time, but the principles they put into action are right out of the article.

    Conclusion: Standard individual-scale policy approaches such as isolation, contact tracing and monitoring are rapidly (computationally) overwhelmed in the face of mass infection, and thus also cannot be relied upon to stop a pandemic. Multiscale population approaches including drastically pruning contact networks using collective boundaries and social behavior change, and community self-monitoring, are essential.

    That was China’s playbook in a nutshell. The authorities understood what “convexity” and “fat tails” could do to numbers that amounted to a national total of only 571 confirmed cases and 17 deaths at the time they locked Wuhan down.

    It got to where it is today, epidemiologically speaking by using basic principles of risk engineering rather than complex epidemiological models suggesting the pandemic could be managed.

    Ignoring Taleb et al in favour of micromanagement (aka: gambling) is how much of the West got to where it is. The failure will, I believe eventually prove existential.

    • Thanks: Iris
    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  349. Erebus says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    … the probability of a summer viral release from Maryland… is so insignificant, based on his model, as to be ridiculous…

    You still don’t understand it. It says NOTHING about what happened before Wuhan 12-24. Nothing, as in the release could have happened in the summer of 1 AD as far as the model is concerned, or in the late Pleistocene, or before the Big Bang.

    I suggest you re-re-review.

  350. @Erebus

    I’d expect to see peak probability roughly centred with asymmetrical tails.

    I suggest the confidence curve would have to look more like a log-normal curve because the right hand side on the temporal scale (late December) could not have an asymptotic tail due to the given constraint of looking back in time from a specific point.

    Here is just an example with the time line reversed, though the density would be skewed even more toward the left side than in the illustration:

    • Replies: @Alfred
  351. @Erebus

    It says NOTHING about what happened before Wuhan 12-24.

    You are making a big deal about a relatively trivial distinction in this discourse, namely the model Foster used and what it cannot say conclusively, versus what can reasonably be inferred with a high level of confidence regarding what the results of the model and its associated calculations, pertaining to mutations, would indicate with regard to a chronological span. In other words, you are just nitpicking.

    Note your own terminology, from two posts:

    Forster says that SARS-2’s mutation rate indicates Strain A surfaced in humans no earlier than Sept 13 and as late as Dec 14. Given the mutation rate we’ve seen since Dec 24, his window is wide enough for 2 or more pre-A strains to have emerged…

    …lends indirect, but scientifically robust support to one of the principal theories floating around, namely that the Games had a central role in the outbreak.

    I am suggesting, however, that the support for the Wuhan Military Games having had a central role is not “scientifically robust“, based on the presumptive confidence level curve derived from his model being heavily skewed to the right (December), so that it would be foolish to continue obsessing upon earlier periods, especially the alleged but contrived genesis during the summer.

    It’s a little like looking forward and harping on about becoming a 150 year old person, simply because the remote possibility of that occurrence cannot be categorically excluded.

    • Replies: @Erebus
  352. Vidi says:
    @d dan

    @d_dan
    https://www.unz.com/article/the-hunt-for-patient-zero/#comment-3840315

    The problem with that is the fact that US investments in China is much lesser than most people understand. American likes to rave about US helping China, but the overall US assets in China is definitely much less than 1 trillion – the amount of reserves that China holds that is subjected to US freezing. The tit-for-tat will see China running out of bullet very fast.

    However, the American dollar would be dropped as a reserve currency. After the theft of China’s $1T of US dollars, nobody sane would ever voluntarily lend the US any money (by buying US treasury bonds, for example). If that happened, the US’s reserve currency status would be dead.

    And having the world’s favorite reserve currency is worth far more to the US than China’s trillion dollars. For example, the Americans created the recent $2.2 trillion bailout magically from nothing, and the newly printed dollars would be worth nothing too if many other countries didn’t agree that it was worth something. That agreement, plus the expectation that the money would continue to have value, is what defines a true reserve currency. The US won’t throw that away — unless it’s suicidal.

    • Replies: @d dan
    , @Astuteobservor II
  353. d dan says:
    @Vidi

    “However, the American dollar would be dropped as a reserve currency. “

    Those American war hawks would probably believe that China and the world would NOT dare to drop US dollar as reserve currency. They figure that China would make a lot of noises, but would come back to using US dollars. All the usual US vassals would obviously comply too. It was just like the beginning the trade war – many people in Trump administration believe that China would not dare to retaliate with tariffs on US goods.

    I don’t know how high the chance of “reparations” would happen, or whether sane persons will prevail in US politics. However, US does has the history to freeze other countries’ assets. We may think this is unlikely for China, but several months ago, we also thought that bioweapon attacks on China was unlikely. How sure are you now?

    • Replies: @Vidi
  354. Iris says:

    The Chinese embassy in Paris has produced a scathing criticism of the media attacks that started coincidentally as soon as the USA’s Covid-19 death toll exceeded China’s:

    http://www.amb-chine.fr/fra/zfzj/t1768712.htm

    Restoring distorted facts – Observations by a Chinese diplomat stationed in Paris

    [..] If after doing so much in the first three weeks, China has been considered to have ” dragged on,” so what did the Europeans and Americans do in the two months after China’s first report and a month after Wuhan’s closure?

    Their leaders said that it was only a “small flu”, that there was no need to worry, that the virus only hit the “Chinks” and that, in fact, the risk of it circulating in their countries was minimal. Their media and experts, while revelling in the blind serenity of their countries, have worked to defame China, to mock it with good jokes and to hope for it a “Chernobyl effect”.

    On the other hand, there was no one to think about measures to combat the epidemic or to supply necessary medical equipment to avoid being caught off guard. The editor-in-chief of the British magazine The Lancet has called Britain’s health prevention measures a “national scandal.” Recently, the President of the European Research Council (ERC), Mauro Ferrari, said he had “lost faith in the system” of European pandemic management and resigned with a bang.

    China has not been afraid to cut its GDP by thousands of billions of yuan, inject hundreds of billions of yuan into resources, mobilize more than 40,000 caregivers from across the country to support Wuhan and Hubei, and finally defeat the epidemic in just two months.

    At the same time, in the West, politicians have been seen tearing each other apart to get votes back; advocate group immunization thus leaving their citizens alone in the face of the viral hecatomb; stealing medical supplies; resell to private structures equipment purchased with public money to enrich themselves. Residents of retirement homes were obliged to sign emergency waivers renouncing their rights to treatment; EHPADs’ health care workers abandoned their posts overnight, collectively deserted, leaving their elderly residents to die of hunger and disease; the Commander of an aircraft carrier was seen asking his superiors for permission to dock to allow infected sailors to be treated ashore. He was sacked…, and so on.

    And it goes on to compare Western MSM to Goebbels’s propaganda:

    Western anti-Chinese media always attack us with the same two processes: first by inventing lies, then by relentlessly hammering them. Are they afraid of being uncovered? Not at all, because the lie “runs, as soon as let go.” Even if it is eventually d, the rumour, like a virus, has already gone around the world. And to give it body, they repeat them in a loop, like a broken record. “A lie repeated 1000 times becomes a truth.” This is their credo and modus operandi.

  355. @Vidi

    I can see it happening if USA can get EU countries on board. Pompeo even though up in the GO meeting.

    As long as USA got other developed countries on board, they can steal the one trillion USD from China.

    I think that is one of the major reasons why China started a huge push on the humanitarian front in EU. Also why newspapers royal to the US cause started to shit on the same humanitarian inactivities of China.

    • Replies: @Vidi
    , @antibeast
  356. Iris says:

    A striking illustration of how well each country looks after its people, with the undisputed “champion” of the contest being the UK:

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-04-13/How-Trump-mishandled-coronavirus-outbreak-in-U-S–PEXjgD2968/index.html

    • Replies: @Erebus
    , @Erebus
    , @glib
  357. vot tak says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    IE: keep the hasbara going…

    The guardianista way…

  358. antibeast says:
    @d dan

    Agree that this will be a lose-lose situation between US and China. But the point of the professor is that Trump and neo-con have the penchant to resort in lose-lose move (e.g. trade wars with every one, sanctions of various countries, etc) – always thinking they are still the top-dog in the world, and therefore could easily crush any resistance. So this is not a small chance event to be simply ignored.

    It’s beyond lose-lose because China loses a one-time asset write-off while the USA loses its key role in the USD-based global financial system. The Trump Administration may not realize it but losing China would damage the USD Petrodollar System because China is such as large player in the global economy which presupposes its key role in propping up the USD Petrodollar System. I can only presume that the economic damages to the USA will be far greater than whatever USD debts that China holds because it destroys the intrinsic value of the USD-based global financial system. If the USA loses its key role in the USD-based global financial system, that would be catastrophic to the USD-debt driven US economy.

    I believe China, and the rest of the world, and even private US citizens and companies need to have contingency plans in case this materializes. Don’t wait until the day when US dollar is not accepted for purchase of face mask to start complaining.

    It’s been slowly happening since the introduction of the Euro some twenty years ago. The EU — which is China’s largest trading partner — has been trying to get the Euro to replace the USD in international trade/investment since then. The Europeans defied the US sanctions against Iran by creating INSTEX which bypasses the USD-based SWIFT. Now Russia is in talks with the EU to adopt their currencies for bilateral trade/investment as it did with China when it was slapped with US sanctions a few years back.

    The Trump Administration has displayed time and again its lack of understanding of how the global economy works. The USA would end up destroying the SYSTEM it created after the post-WWII Bretton Woods Agreement established the USD as the international reserve currency. But that would imply the end of the USD Petrodollar System, the USD-based global financial system and its USD-debt driven economy.

    • Agree: d dan
    • Replies: @ThatDamnGood
  359. TT says:
    @Iris

    Thanks for explaining.

    I would think Feb 2020 Chinese genomic study classification of 5 strains group point out more explicitly that the source is only possible from US, since only US alone has A strains if i read correctly:

    Five strains: ABCDE
    China: C
    Taiwan: B, C
    Others: C,D,E
    Iran, Italy ≠ C
    Oz: B
    US: ABCDE

    https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1181159.shtml

    The article said the haplotypes of the 58 new coronaviruses, numbered H1-H58, were divided into five groups: A, B, C, D, and E, with A being the oldest and E the youngest.

    However, in Hubei, only coronavirus from Group C are detected, but in the US the viruses from all five groups have been found.

    Therefore, Yu and his colleagues believe that the novel coronavirus which caused the epidemic in Hubei might be imported from some other places.

    China’s Coronavirus: A Shocking Update. Did The Virus Originate in the US?
    Japan, China and Taiwan Reports on the Origin of the Virus
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/china-coronavirus-shocking-update/5705196

    One of his main points is that the type infecting Taiwan exists only in Australia and the US and, since Taiwan was not infected by Australians, the infection in Taiwan could have come only from the US.

    The basic logic is that the geographical location with the greatest diversity of virus strains must be the original source because a single strain cannot emerge from nothing.

    He demonstrated that only the US has all the five known strains of the virus (while Wuhan and most of China have only one, as do Taiwan and South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam, Singapore, and England, Belgium and Germany), constituting a thesis that the haplotypes in other nations may have originated in the US.

    Korea and Taiwan have a different haplotype of the virus than China, perhaps more infective but much less deadly, which would account for a death rate only 1/3 that of China.

    Neither Iran nor Italy were included in the above tests, but both countries have now deciphered the locally prevalent genome and have declared them of different varieties from those in China, which means they did not originate in China but were of necessity introduced from another source. It is worth noting that the variety in Italy has approximately the same fatality rate as that of China, three times as great as other nations, while the haplotype in Iran appears to be the deadliest with a fatality rate of between 10% and 25%. (7) (8) (9)

    COVID-19: Further Evidence that the Virus Originated in the US
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/covid-19-further-evidence-virus-originated-us/5706078

    Not only did the virus not originate at the seafood market, it did not originate in Wuhan at all, and it has now been proven that it did not originate in China but was brought to China from another country.

    Part of the proof of this assertion is that the genome varieties of the virus in Iran and Italy have been sequenced and declared to have no part of the variety that infected China and must, by definition, have originated elsewhere.

    It would seem the only possibility for origination would be the US because only that country has the “tree trunk” of all the varieties. And it may therefore be true that the original source of the COVID-19 virus was the US military bio-warfare lab at Fort Detrick.

    This would not be a surprise, given that the CDC completely shut down Fort Detrick, but also because, as I related in an earlier article,

    between 2005 and 2012 the US had experienced 1,059 events where pathogens had been either stolen or escaped from American bio-labs during the prior ten years.

    • Thanks: Godfree Roberts
  360. TT says:
    @denk

    Indeed, and Chinese netizens also question why Shi Zhengli, chief of China virology institutions, and Wuhan lab need to collaborate bat Coronavirus research with most anti-China USM & India,funded by USM-USAid, the same organizations that funded HK riots and all the anti-China campaign. Chinese has no lack of fund.

    It looks like US-Israel-India have been setting China up for long time with joint study of bats Coronavirus before launching global bioterrorism to scapegoat China hence decoupling it.

    Since last year India & US have already started series of media warfare to accuse Wuhan Lab dev bioweapon & leaking. Greatgameindia.com & ZeroHedge have been working hand in hand since Mar19.

    Hilarious: India Accuses China of Bio-War Attack with CV19, Files Court Case
    https://www.veteranstoday.com/2020/04/04/breaking-hilarious-india-accuses-china-of-bio-war-attack-with-cv19-files-court-case/

    India’s complaint to the United Nations Human Rights Council seeking compensation from China specifically presents as evidence GreatGameIndia‘s report on how Chinese biowarfare agents stole Coronavirus from a Canadian lab and weaponized it at Wuhan Institute of Virology.

    In addition to the Indian complaint, a $20 trillion lawsuit has also been filed against China for waging a Biological war in Texas Federal Court, alleging that it unleashed the coronavirus as a bioweapon upon the world.

    In the (US) lawsuit, Klayman argued that because China had already agreed by Biological Weapons Convention treaty to outlaw such weapons c. November, 1984, these actions cannot be official governmental actions of the People’s Republic of China and therefore, China cannot claim legal immunity from the class action lawsuit.

    Coronavirus : India To Investigate Wuhan Institute Of Virology
    https://greatgameindia.com/coronavirus-india-to-investigate-wuhan-institute-of-virology/

    The Indian government has ordered an inquiry into a study conducted in the Northeastern state of Nagaland (close to China) by researchers from the U.S., China and India on bats and humans carrying antibodies to deadly viruses like Ebola, officials confirmed to The Hindu.

    The study came under the scanner as two of the 12 researchers belonged to the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s Department of Emerging Infectious Diseases, and it was funded by the United States Department of Defense’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). They would have required special permissions as foreign entities.

    The study, conducted by scientists of the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, the National Centre for Biological Sciences (NCBS), the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences in the U.S. and the Duke-National University in Singapore, is now being investigated for how the scientists were allowed to access live samples of bats and bat hunters (humans) without due permissions.

    The results of the study were published in October last year in the PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases journal, originally established by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

    • Replies: @denk
    , @denk
  361. TT says:
    @Seraphim

    Yet we never see a new Coronavirus appear and kill million of Australian with such scale of 30,000 bats dying and rotting in Australia cities. So don’t worry.

    In fact, bats soup is not a delicacy or like by most Chinese. Its a cooked up story by West msm using Chinese tourist video in Palau to setup China.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bat_as_food

    Bats are a food source for humans in some areas. Bats are consumed in various amounts in some regions within some Asian, African, European,[1] and Pacific Rim countries and cultures, including Vietnam, Seychelles, Indonesia,[2] Palau, Thailand,[3] China,[4] and Guam.[5][6]

    Bat meat is considered a delicacy in the Cook Islands, Niue, Guam, the Mariana Islands, and Samoa. It is popularly consumed in Fiji, New Caledonia, and Vanuatu.[14]

    A 2010 study documented that per month, 3,000 bats were sold in markets in four Bolivian cities.

    Additionally, the greater short-nosed fruit bat is hunted for medicine, but not food.[14] Bat meat is not especially popular in China.[17][18][19]

    India, Pakistan, Bangladesh eat bats too. Indians are even more skillful in skinning bats with special tool, and prepare them in dirty condition.

    So has Indonesia long history of eating bats, dogs & wildlife.

    Just search Bat eating in youtude, plenty of nations eating bats videos dated years ago. Try wildlife, dogs, snakes…you will see plenty of nations eating these for centuries without problem, not just China.

    Is bat soup a delicacy in China? We debunk a rumour on the origin of the coronavirus
    https://observers.france24.com/en/20200203-china-coronavirus-bat-soup-debunk-videos-viral-palau-indonesia

    • Agree: Ber
    • Replies: @Seraphim
  362. Vidi says:
    @d dan

    Those American war hawks would probably believe that China and the world would NOT dare to drop US dollar as reserve currency. They figure that China would make a lot of noises, but would come back to using US dollars.

    They might be crazy enough to try it.

    But more than China would react if the US stole China’s trillion dollars. After such a giant heist, every country would be asking itself, “If not even a power as great as China could defend itself from being robbed by the Americans, are my own dollar holdings safe?”

    The answer, of course, is that no country would be safe. They would all dump their dollars, and the US reign as the creator of the world’s favorite reserve would end.

    All usual US vassals would obviously comply too.

    It doesn’t matter if the vassals would support the dollar. Even in 2017, when the US was much stronger than it is now, less than 40% of international trade was settled in dollars (link). If the US turned thief, the international usage of the dollar would fall like a stone.

    • Replies: @Parfois1
  363. Erebus says:
    @Iris

    Thanks Iris.

    I actually did up a quick spreadsheet including a number of small countries with <10k cases a couple wks ago. I occasionally updated it, but it consistently showed the Asians, incl small countries like Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore etc doing a vastly better job of it than anybody else.

    Much more striking than China's national numbers can be seen when one digs a little deeper. Hubei's numbers ex-Wuhan, and then in the rest of the country ex-Hubei show how effective Taleb et al's formula is. I say "Taleb's" because I have no idea what calculations motivated the Chinese, but they must have been similar and showed the expected results.

    In short:
    Take Wuhan out of Hubei's numbers, and the rest of Hubei had a bad flu season. Take Hubei out of the national numbers, and the rest of the country barely even had a flu season as the measures dramatically reduced the incidence of all communicable diseases.

    That brings up a critical point regarding "how well each country looks after its people" that can't be quantified with any accuracy. Namely, how many cases actually developed vs how many cases would have developed had a country done things differently.

    Despite being at ground zero, hit with no forewarning by an epidemic well underway, extremely high population density in its cities and the largest population generally, China had only 83k cases. The USA faced vastly less daunting odds with 2 mos more warning, but with a population 1/5th of China's, it's already contracted 8x the absolute number of cases and 10x the absolute number of deaths (at time of writing) with the numbers continuing to deteriorate.

    Converting the absolute numbers to performance relative to population & population density would yield results that don't belong on the same chart. Even comparing NYC to Wuhan looks bad enough.

    PS: Something's whacko about the UK's numbers. Either there's reporting irregularities (as in the NHS has no idea), or the British are the most unhealthy people on the planet saddled with it's most inept medical system. Neither of those are likely to be true so the UK's numbers should be considered an outlier.

    • Thanks: Godfree Roberts
  364. Seraphim says:
    @TT

    I don’t worry. I am just amused at the hullabaloo made around bats, throwing stones in the glasshouse. I am sure that it operates at the subliminal level, bats=Dracula=vampires.

  365. Erebus says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    … the model Foster used and what it cannot say conclusively, versus what can reasonably be inferred with a high level of confidence regarding what the results of the model and its associated calculations…

    Not sure if you’re talking about the phylogenetic model showing the virus’ genomic changes through space & time after 12-24, or the probability algorithm Forster used to generate a pre-history of Strain A, or if you’ve muddled the two together.

    Use of the term “Strain A” can be misleading because it creates the impression that SARS-2 appeared as Strain A. The model says no such thing. Furthermore, it is highly improbable that SARS-2 appeared as Strain A as no genetically similar bat virus appears in the data banks. “Strain A” is simply an arbitrary name the researchers gave the genetically oldest of the strains that have been sequenced.

    Iris suggested the phylogenetic model inferred an earlier US origin, and you think it somehow precludes SARS-2 emergence in May-June in Maryland. My point is it does neither. The model allows for no “reasonable inferences” whatsoever prior to A 12-24 any more than Big Bang Theory infers what happened before it. Forster’s probability curve precludes (with 95% confidence) the emergence of Strain A prior to Sept 13, but says nothing about strains that may have preceded it. It may well be that a precursor to Strain A was active in Maryland in May-June, or in the “vaping flus”, but has not been found/sequenced publicly and so can’t be part of the model.

    The probability curve he generated regarding Strain A’s emergence (NB: not SARS-2’s emergence) prior to 12-24 is not itself phylogenetic. It’s “associated” with the model only in the sense he spoke about it in the same context, and of course in that the algorithm that generated the curve used the same mutation rates.

    Nobody, least of all myself, is saying that the model supports the notion that Strain A emerged in May-June, nor am I saying that the probability curve suggests that. I am saying that the peak in the probability curve describing Strain A’s pre-Wuhan 12-24 emergence looks to be coincidental in both space and time to Wuhan and the Games. That is perhaps one coincidence too many, and so lends support (though not evidence) to the notion that the Games played a central/important role in what followed.

    • Replies: @Been_there_done_that
  366. Vidi says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    I can see it happening if USA can get EU countries on board. Pompeo even though up in the GO meeting.

    As long as USA got other developed countries on board, they can steal the one trillion USD from China.

    Actually, the US needs no help to steal a trillion dollars from China. Any country can wrest its currency back from others with no help. The currency held offshore is debt; a country can renege on its debt at any time. Of course, the deadbeat country would have to deal with the consequences, which could be military. However, China doesn’t want to start a World War.

    But China doesn’t have to be extreme, regardless of what the EU wants. The US dollar is already in precarious position, as already in 2017 less than 40% of international trade was settled in dollars (link to SWIFT, the system for international settlements; warning: a PDF document). It wouldn’t take much to push the dollar out; grand larceny by the US would certainly do it. If the dollar isn’t needed for international settlements, it isn’t needed as reserve currency either.

    If the US lost its status as the global reserve, the country would seriously suffer. This is why the US won’t steal China’s dollars — unless it’s suicidal.

  367. Erebus says:
    @Iris

    PPS: It’s interesting to note that the national de facto performance rankings on JHU’s chart are an almost perfect inversion of the de jure rankings they received on the JHU sponsored “Global Health Security Index” that I linked on Godfree’s previous thread.

    About the Index Project Team

    The GHS Index is a project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (JHU) and was developed with The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

    I wonder whether JHU’s collective head will be facing forward when it stops spinning.

    Somebody’s metrics are utterly disconnected from reality, and/or they totally missed the principles guiding the decision making process that would in turn drive any particular country’s response. On the face of it, both. Another indictment of the US’ intellectual elite.

    Here it is again in all its glory.

    • Replies: @Parfois1
  368. @Erebus

    Good point, as this WHO chart makes clear:

  369. antibeast says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    As long as USA got other developed countries on board, they can steal the one trillion USD from China.

    You have a poor grasp of how international capital markets work. The US Federal Government issues US Treasury Bills which are bought by US banks who then resell them to domestic and foreign creditors in international capital markets. Those US Treasury Bills are not issued to China but are bearer notes redeemable upon maturity. The holders of those debt are then free to sell them through international capital markets until the US Federal Government redeems the US Treasury Bill upon maturity. For the US Federal Government to “cancel” its public debt by reneging to pay those outstanding US Treasury Bills would instantly degrade the credit rating of the USA to junk. That would affect ALL holders of those debt, including ALL domestic and foreign creditors, not just China.

    • Replies: @Erebus
  370. @antibeast

    Correct me if I am wrong, Petrodollars created the Eurodollar market which now is quite independent of it.

    Hence, viability of the Eurodollar market should be the object of analysis.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  371. @Erebus

    Use of the term “Strain A” can be misleading because it creates the impression that SARS-2 appeared as Strain A. The model says no such thing.

    I was alluding to the pre-history algorithm and curve that was generated on the basis of the mutation data. Of course the results are necessarily “inconclusive”, in a technical sense, due to a lack of sufficient early gene sequence data.

    Most importantly, we both agree that @Iris had misrepresented that this Cambridge study proves an emergence of the virus in America, which was the main thrust of both our earlier comments.

    If you still maintain that the resulting probability curve has two tails, you haven’t made a case for why this ought to be so. I have suggested it would have to look similar to a log-normal curve, which has only one asymptotic tail, going back in time to minus infinity, in case that kind of curve-fitting formula is used in the software.

    Furthermore, I have suggested that the peak and predominant density of such a curve would be so heavily skewed toward the end-point in December that obsessing about the possibility of an original release in Maryland or an intentional release at the Wuhan Military Games was unwarranted, even though it might not be ruled out mathematically. The reported cut-off point in September may have been arbitrarily selected.

    Note that the curve presented in my comment #361 is a mirror image of what I have suggested, namely it needs to be rotated 180° around the y-axis into the negative region to represent what we have been discussing. Based on the non-parallel nature of the tail, one could also assert that multiple antecedent strains presumed prior to “Strain-A” do not necessarily originate in a bat, as was presumed for the sake of convenience, but instead to a flying dinosaur 200 million years ago, during in the Mesozoic Era.

    I have not seen Forster’s probability curve, so if it can be authoritatively produced here in detail, that would be helpful information.

    • Replies: @Iris
    , @Erebus
  372. antibeast says:
    @ThatDamnGood

    Correct me if I am wrong, Petrodollars created the Eurodollar market which now is quite independent of it. Hence, viability of the Eurodollar market should be the object of analysis.

    Those two terms are not synonymous but apply to two different things: Petrodollar refers to the USD used to buy Arab oil while Eurodollar is the term used to denote USD held in foreign banks outside the USA, mostly in offshore tax havens. The Petrodollar System refers to the trading of oil (plus other energy commodities) using USD while the Eurodollar System is used by US MNCs, US Hedge Funds, US Trust Funds, US Foundations, etc. to hide their USD assets outside of the USA.

  373. Erebus says:

    From the Times of Israel…

    US alerted Israel, NATO to disease outbreak in China in November

    An article linked from the above, says…

    President Xi Jinping warned the public on the seventh day, (after learning of the pandemic on) January 20.

    Putting 2 and 2 together, the upper echelons of the US, Israel, and NATO knew of the pandemic mid-Nov, some 2 months before Xi Jingping.

    • Thanks: Iris
    • Replies: @Been_there_done_that
    , @TT
  374. denk says:
    @TT

    why Shi Zhengli, chief of China virology institutions, and Wuhan lab need to collaborate bat Coronavirus research with most anti-China USM & India,funded by USM-USAid,

    One charitable view could be the Chinese have been denied international collaboration on high tech for so long,
    So Shi and co jumped at such an opportunity when it arose, without even realising the shady background of their ‘pardners‘.

    When your enemy offer an olive branch, why refuse ?
    Whats there to lose in such a harmless hookup , or so they thought !

    When it comes to geopolitical skulduggery, the Chinese are like babes in a wood compared to FUKUS, which have perfected it to a science .
    [[[they]]] had all of five centuries to practice on after all.

    • Agree: TT, thetruth
    • Replies: @denk
    , @Ber
  375. Iris says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    Most importantly, we both agree that @Iris had misrepresented that this Cambridge study proves an emergence of the virus in America, which was the main thrust of both our earlier comments.

    I told you before, you are too lazy to follow a conversation, but nonetheless arrogant enough to report the REVERSE of what was stated. So, again, this is what I really said about the origin of Strain A:

    @Tor597

    Interesting, so does this indicate that the West Coast of America was the origin of the virus?

    Not necessarily, but it proves that the virus appeared in the US West Coast (under A strain) before it appeared in Wuhan (under B strain).
    There are still sections of genetic lineage missing, roughly between the bat and the A strain.

    https://www.unz.com/article/the-hunt-for-patient-zero/#comment-3834616

  376. Erebus says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    The reported cut-off point in September may have been arbitrarily selected.

    That’s not what Forster says. “Not earlier than” and “no later than” (his words, iirc) means the tails on his curve go to zero at Dec 14 and Sept 13.
    I see no reason why the…

    … peak and predominant density of such a curve would be so heavily skewed toward the end-point in December…

    Where did you get that notion from?

    I don’t know the variables involved in mutation rates, but given that time is linear, it must be the variation in mutations per unit time that yields the curve. Remember, we’re talking about a sufficient number of sufficiently important mutations to take us to Strain A’s predecessor, which would be a new, 4th strain to add to the 3 he names A, B & C. You’re claiming that the probability of that event had to have happened recently, as recently as 10 days prior to 12-24, but I see no reason to think that’s the case. Why would the probability skew heavily towards the most recent time?

    Surely the skew depends primarily on some average or mean interval between lesser and greater mutations, and as we don’t know what that is, or the range of temporal variation between them, it makes little sense to argue about the shape of the curve. We know probability drops to zero at those two dates with a peak somewhere in between, and nothing more.

    As for…

    … obsessing about the possibility of an… intentional release at the Wuhan Military Games…

    … no obsessing here, nor have I said anything about “intentional” or “unintentional” releases. The Games may have played a central role in a variety of ways, including those two.

    Given that we now know that the outbreak was sufficiently prominent on US intelligence agencies’ radar for them to have issued reports warnings to the USG, NATO and Israel by mid-Nov (and briefed the WH thru Dec), it is quite likely that it started at least a few weeks earlier. That “few weeks” brings us straight into the Games. Whether it was brought to the Games by an infected team member, or infected competitors at the Games who then took it home and/or elsewhere becomes a distinct possibility. If so, yes, I’d call the Games’ role central to the pandemic that followed.

    • Agree: Godfree Roberts
    • Replies: @Been_there_done_that
  377. @Erebus

    Putting 2 and 2 together, the upper echelons of the US, Israel, and NATO knew of the pandemic mid-Nov, some 2 months before Xi Jingping.

    Reporting on what was announced by Israeli television media, based on unsourced information, with no details and no corroboration of any kind, much less any leaked documentation, should be worthy of an investigative follow-up report that relies on substantive research.

    In light of a January 9th public announcement by WHO and January 3rd internal announcement, to suggest that the “Dear Leader” Xi first learned about all this on January 14 would indicate that he may be like self-aggrandizing US buffoon presidents – completely out of the loop on important things going on. An alternative explanation would be that Xi knew much earlier but now wishes to evade any culpability. Neither interpretation is favorable.

    If correct, this report would also tend to suggest that one of the two Wuhan labs, from where the virus was likely accidentally released, must have known about this mishap early on, even before any symptoms had eventually emerged in patients. It would hint at ongoing information by certain US authorities pertaining to goings on at those labs; after all, they were funding some of the research. It also indicates that nobody in November was really aware of how severe the consequences of the outbreak would be because everybody who had been informed took a wait-and-see approach.

    • Replies: @Erebus
  378. Erebus says:
    @antibeast

    The US Federal Government issues US Treasury Bills which are bought by US banks…

    Not quite.
    The PBoC has its own account with the Treasury, and in effect is its own primary dealer though it doesn’t (iirc) sell the paper onwards except through one of the other primary dealers.

    … Treasury Bills are not issued to China but are bearer notes redeemable upon maturity.

    Not quite.
    Treasury paper is serialized, and registered as to who purchased it, or at least which primary dealer purchased it. So, the US Treasury could indeed declare such paper as the PBoC holds in its account at the US Treasury null & void by simply listing the PBoC’s papers’ serial numbers and so declaring without affecting the value of any others.

    The PBoC and the US Treasury came to that agreement at the PBoC’s insistence during the GFC of a decade ago.

  379. @Erebus

    Why would the probability skew heavily towards the most recent time?

    Because the probability curve is supposed to have also factored in the empirically obtained data on the rate of spread of the virus. I have seen the underlying infectious curve to look close to a logistics curve (S-shaped) with the maximum at 14 days (hence this is the common quarantine period). This makes an initial outbreak much earlier on, with correspondingly increased prior mutation span, far less likely than a more recent initial infection.

    Since the study attracted so much attention I find it peculiar that this curve we have been discussing has not been presented. I am curious to see it.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
    , @Erebus
  380. denk says:
    @denk

    I came across some rather unflattering remarks about Shi.
    Anyway, lets say she’s simply innocent of the jungle out there when working with NIH, NCU etc etc.

    But the murkkans are anything but naive.

    Why’d the U.S. [[[cabal]]], with their pathological hatred of anything Chinese, allowed, hell , even sponsored such cooperation in dual purpose BIO research ?

    I mean, for the past seventy years [[[they]]] have been zealously denying the Chinese access to high tech, weapon sales, space program, been ethnic cleansing Chinese researchers from Uni labs, slandering them as security risks.

    Remeber Lee Wen Ho, the Taiwanese persecuted by Washington, we can actually go right back to Chien Xue Shen’s era.
    uNDer Trump, this yellow peril has been retched up to feverish pitch.

    [[[their]]] sinophobia are so pathological that Chinese scientists have been kicked out of Cancer research program in the U.S..!

    If they didnt even want to partner the Chinese in harmless cancer research, why the fuck would they wanna help the Chinese in dual purpose CV manipulation ?
    So that China could perfect their bio warfare defense ?
    So the Chinese could derive their own bio-weapon to threaten uncle sham ??

    It makes no sense.
    Unless ……….

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
    , @Parfois1
  381. TT says:
    @Erebus

    Looks like US-India had planned very well ahead for a Coronavirus outbreak in China:

    Jun19
    Greatgameindia.com started series of smearing campaign with ZeroHedge.com on Wuhan BLS4 Lab stealing Canada Lab Coronavirus to dev bioweapon. Zerohedge Doxxing Wuhan scientists.
    https://greatgameindia.com/coronavirus-bioweapon/

    Jul19
    US axed its epidemiologist Linda Quick embeded with China CDC.

    “The message from the administration was, ‘Don’t work with China, they’re our rival,’” Frieden said.
    U.S. axed CDC expert job in China months before virus outbreak
    https://www.physiciansweekly.com/exclusive-u-s-axed-cdc/amp/

    18Oct19
    Event 201 simulate Coronavirus pandemic watch by Pentagon, pharma giants,..
    https://hub.jhu.edu/2019/11/06/event-201-health-security/

    On the same day, USM sent 300 “soya” soldiers to Wuhan military game that ranked 35th.
    https://www.veteranstoday.com/2020/03/25/china-us-brought-covid19-to-china-during-army-games-hid-disease-in-us-as-influenza/

    B/Nov19

    US military’s National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) reported concerns about China coronavirus pandemic to US gov repeatedly that it will seriously affect USM bases in SK & Jp.
    “Analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event,”
    https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/intelligence-report-warned-coronavirus-crisis-early-november-sources/story?id=70031273

    M/Nov19
    US intelligence alerted Israel, NATO to disease outbreak in China in November — report
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-alerted-israel-nato-to-disease-outbreak-in-china-in-november-report//

    15Nov19
    US CDC start recruiting quarantine specialists for many states.
    https://jobs.cdc.gov/job/dallas/public-health-advisor-quarantine-program/250/14136286

    17Dec19
    USM ally SK run China Coronavirus outbreak exercise., deem pure good luck just ready for everything.

    Two dozen leading infectious diseases specialists tackled a worrying scenario: a South Korean family contracts pneumonia after a trip to China, where cases of an unidentified disease had arisen.
    https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-30/south-koreas-emergency-exercise-in-december-facilitated-coronavirus-testing-containment

    27Dec19
    China Wuhan Dr Zhang Jixian detected & reported suspicious cases to CDC.
    http://en.people.cn/mobile/new/content.html?cI=1002&nI=9680648&aT=m

    31Dec19
    China notified WHO & US CDC. WHO timeline.
    http://en.people.cn/mobile/new/content.html?cI=1002&nI=9678956&aT=m

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-alerted-israel-nato-to-disease-outbreak-in-china-in-november-report//
    “As far back as late November, U.S. intelligence officials were warning that a contagion was sweeping through China’s Wuhan region, changing the patterns of life and business and posing a threat to the population, according to four sources briefed on the secret reporting.

    “Analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event,” one of the sources said of the NCMI’s report. “It was then briefed multiple times to” the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s Joint Staff and the White House.”

    • Replies: @Erebus
  382. thetruth says:

    Israel media said U.S. has warned Israel and NATO in last Nov., for the disease outbreak in China! Before Chinese realized it themselves! Do I need to say more who is the villain here?

    https://scontent-sjc3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/93109497_3444123692271309_2172133118146772992_o.jpg?_nc_cat=108&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_oc=AQn56EwHez2q3ABqN_a_BYghnwMvPJdTK4SceRF5uyEqr_wxlc2l8YQSAzCmP5Gz1x0&_nc_ht=scontent-sjc3-1.xx&oh=b71d131d72ce3b363541cb4e260b3376&oe=5EBF5397

    • Replies: @denk
  383. glib says:
    @Iris

    misleading plot, since the first three spots are occupied by the countries with the 3 oldest outbreaks. Obviously the older the outbreak the higher the number of recovered people. You can get a hint from the fact that x+y is less than one. Long term, x+y must be equal to 1.

    The x-axis also varies from country to country, as locally they decide how much to test. If country were to decide to test more (everyone with even the mildest symptoms) that country would move towards the (0,0) point in both axes.

    • Replies: @Iris
  384. Iris says:
    @glib

    Hello. These indicators are those agreed upon and appearing on the WHO dashboard, so I guess the most “consensual” one can get. Very interesting interactive map with downloadable data:

    https://covid19.who.int/

    They are not perfect; personally I find it a little meaningless to compare small populations on one hand, with larger ones on the other hand.

    Regarding the denominator used (the number of confirmed cases, or total cases as called in the graph), it should stop growing as transmission decreases, as this another measure of the efficacy of public health policies. So testing more people should result in finding mostly negative results, and therefore not change much the ratios. Once the epidemic is under control for a given country, both respective ratios should tend to the country’s specific steady values, not to zero.

    You are right about the time lag between outbreaks, but all the countries in the plot have allegedly passed the peak epidemic. So given an additional 10-15 days, the average time for recovery, it seems ok to compare them, no?

    • Replies: @glib
  385. The people behind this man-made virus will never be found and punished just like the real perpetrators of JFK assassination. That is how the US DEEP STATE works. This was all about another Economic reset and excuse for more wealth transfer to the 0.1% super elites for more control and power. The Thesis of this article cannot be proven unfortunately. One thing is certain:
    2008 Nobel Prize Winner Says Covid-19 Is Man-made.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-man-made-virus-hiv-discoverer-says-could-only-have-been-created-lab?utm_campaign=&utm_content=ZeroHedge%3A+The+Durden+Dispatch&utm_medium=email&utm_source=zh_newsletter

    • Replies: @Iris
  386. Erebus says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    Reporting on what was announced by Israeli television media, based on unsourced information, with no details and no corroboration of any kind…

    Did you go to the television media to see what “details and corroboration” it reported?

    The Times of Israel ain’t Wikileaks. Here’s ABCnews’ report corroborating the ToI’s effort, but from a week earlier. As both reports agree as to substance, and as both also appear to have been made against interest, I’d say there’s fire behind the smoke.

    … to suggest that the “Dear Leader” Xi first learned about all this on January 14 would indicate that he may be like self-aggrandizing US buffoon presidents – completely out of the loop on important things going on.

    Leaving your juvenile sarcasm aside, I’d expect Xi to be concerned about 100 things more important than a few dead patients in Wuhan. The WTO (& CDC) had been informed, the situation was being monitored. Bureaucrats were being bureaucrats and info moved through the chain accordingly – in fits ‘n starts. The real question is what data did the intelligence agencies have in mid-Nov, and why did they think it was so dangerous at a time when the number of cases was infinitesimally small?

    … this report would also tend to suggest that one of the two Wuhan labs, from where the virus was likely accidentally released…

    “Likely”? Really? And do you have any “details and corroboration” for that gratuitous claim? Anything besides what you might have sucked out of your thumb? Or is it simply just “likely” for no reason at all?

    It would hint at ongoing information by certain US authorities pertaining to goings on at those labs; after all, they were funding some of the research.

    It would hint equally strongly that one of their operatives in those labs they were funding released it accidentally/on purpose. After all, why else fund them other than as a “Trojan Horse” which could prove handy when some mischief needs releasing? Highly “likely” in my opinion.

    Here’s an even more “likely” scenario.
    The intelligence agencies would be an important component of the USM team’s security arrangements at the Games, so were very active in Wuhan in Sept-Nov. They would be very aware of the illnesses that befell some of the team, and as some required hospitalization would have been involved in collecting the associated medical details, including treatment, tracing how and where they fell ill, assessing the medical threat to them, to the rest of the USM contingent, and by extension to rest of the USM’s personnel in the region. Those activities would have included getting details from Chinese medical personnel about similar cases they’d seen locally, and it’s quite likely that they’d follow up with them after the Games on any further similar new cases. I’d also fully expect them to follow up by checking with allied medical intelligence colleagues at the Games on any of their contingents getting ill, and follow up with them as well as the USA’s after they went home or elsewhere. That’s the NCMI’s job, and doubtless they carried out their function with a high level of professionalism if their analysis quite accurately indicated a high level threat developing around Wuhan by mid Nov.
    In the course of their work, they saw a threat that perhaps even the Chinese public health authorities weren’t aware of, investigated and reported their findings to Washington who passed it on to the IDF and NATO. Notably, they didn’t pass it on to the WHO or to China. Why?
    Keep in mind that NCMI personnel in Wuhan wouldn’t necessarily know the details of the various outbreaks of unusual pneumonias in the US immediately preceding the Games, the details of Ft. Detrick’s closure, or connect them to their findings in Wuhan.

    In sum, in addition to NCMI’s reports and analyses there’s tons of anecdotal and clinical evidence that SARS-2 (perhaps as Strain “X”) was circulating in the US and Wuhan in November, and in the US at least as early as Sept. CT scans of “vaping flu” victims’ lungs are clinically identical to victims of COVID-19 and their “ground glass” appearance is unlike any flu or pneumonia seen before. Unless your most “likely” scenario either connects (or convincingly discounts) those dots, it ain’t likely at all.

    • Replies: @Been_there_done_that
  387. @Erebus

    “The PBoC and the US Treasury came to that agreement at the PBoC’s insistence during the GFC of a decade ago” What agreement?

    The agreement to make PBoC a primary dealer?

    • Replies: @Erebus
  388. Parfois1 says:
    @Erebus

    I suggest you re-re-review.

    As an observer of the on-going dialogue, I think he does not want to understand because ” It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it” as some humourist put it.

    The term “salary” has to be understood not only as the financial reward but also the other intangible rewards to reinforced one’s perception of self, as in hedonistic or narcissistic tendencies, status and reputation, as well as the psychological need for rejecting anything that might bring cognitive dissonance.

    Lets face it, some people have the need to cling to their worldview at all costs and are impenetrable to reason.

    • Agree: Astuteobservor II
  389. @Been_there_done_that

    Would you mind communicating directly with Peter Forster or his coauthor?
    [email protected]
    or
    [email protected].

    You’ve been following this branch of the argument so can phrase your questions so as to help all of us.
    Here’s a machine transcript of his video interviews:

    On April 8th, researchers from the UK and Germany published a paper in the PNAS mapping the early evolutionary paths of covered 19 debate erupted over whether the findings suggest China may not be the origin of the outbreak. It identified three variants of the virus, namely A, B and C with a B in the origin of virus B and C with subsequent derivatives. And they were each prevalent in a different region of the world. It was mainly seen in the US and Australia, the in East Asia, including China and C in Europe. The paper made instant headlines in China and its methodology and conclusions debated on social media around the world. One video invited the details out of the paper and Dr Peter Foster, a dialogue with real life associate professor at the University of Science and Technology of China. We begin with an introduction [00:01:00] from Dr. Foster himself.

    “I, as a student, worked in virology, so twenty five years ago in one of Germany’s leading biological institutes. I then actually moved in to the field of population genetics, where we try to use mitochondrial DNA first and then the Y-chromosome to see how our planet was populated at what how many. Thousands of years ago, people, our ancestors entered the various continents and colonized them. So [00:01:30] I teamed up with a mathematics professor in Hamburg University in Germany and with his PHC post-doc. And we developed methods in the 1990s called phylogenetic network methods, which can deal with these kinds of difficult data. We have a high mutation rate with our close relationships between the data points and we publish successfully over the next 10 years how the world was colonized. Then in January, I started [00:02:00] paying attention to the outbreak of the Corona virus and how it was spreading. So from the middle of February onwards, I registered with the KSA, a database which is an international database where many Chinese researchers have submitted virus genome data for other researchers in the world to use. And when, of course, the infection became more widespread, the epidemic became more widespread. Researchers in other countries also contributed to this database. [00:02:30] So the first Chinese data is that genome is from the 24th of December 2019 and that database and the database is continually being updated. And this is my initial motivation where I took the 160 first and complete corona virus genomes and and used our father genetic network method to see how these types are related to each other.

    And [00:03:00] then I applied what we call an outgroup to find the earliest genome variant that exists for the Corona virus. And for an outgroup, you need to take something which is not human. So you have the Bat Corona virus, which is 96 percent similar to the human virus that has been shown by other researchers, Chinese researchers. And that then is a suitable out. We have called a. And from that derives another [00:03:30] type through two mutations, which we’ve called B. And then there’s another mutation leading to a C type. On these ABC types, in turn have created minor descend into daughter types, so to speak. And now the geography is interesting. The A-type has representatives in China and Wunan, but also internationally. And so that was one important point that we get the routine that we know how it started. It started with an age, you know, and [00:04:00] not with the predominant type in and which is the beach either. Then we have the B type, which is the characteristic type for Wu had really. And for much of mainland China, the C type is found not in mainland China so much, but in surrounding territories and countries and ultimately also arrived in Europe. OK. Perhaps I shall stop here and perhaps you can ask a question.

    Centers. I [00:04:30] guess so. It’s very nice to have you. So my major is the chemical physics, not to biologists. But anyway, I and the many people are very interested in your work, as I understand. So why was the best means in this paper? I’ll be traced back to what? So once these people are USDA Gates is not a to a reaching out to whites, but to evolution. I would go from one to our on the word. It’s this understanding, correct?

    That that is correct.

    But at the same time, [00:05:00] so reponse it is people which are questioned by some colleagues. So could you please respond to that?

    Yes. Please let me know what the questions are.

    So first you will take the crown. The wires are a TDE 13 from Besse and it’s a ancestor out-of-nowhere Colonel Ark’s right. And analyze the data based on this assumption. I fail to understand the data. We always need the starting point for any structures. Having said that. How [00:05:30] do you think about the reliability of this assumption?

    As I’ve mentioned, you can also take a pangolin as an owl group and you get the same result.

    Secular much statistic that increases the robustness of your calculus. I hope that yes, some of my expert friends are now dead from a December of last year to early March of this year. Till well. Two hundred and fifty three. No work on the virus. Genomics is a database that [00:06:00] she set. So why did you choose just two? One hundred and sixty of them.

    So my criterion was to take a high quality, complete sequences in in early March when I extracted the data for the analysis. There were only about, as you say, 250 sequences available. I align them all. I looked at them all and I quickly saw that quite a number of them were extremely short. So these short snippets of a few hundred nucleotides are completely without any information. Then there are [00:06:30] a few which where the sequence started very late or finished very early. And so it wasn’t complete either. So a few of those had to go out as well. And so by this process of focusing on the complete and high quality sequences, you are left at that point with 160. Well, I have now added an analysis for the 1001 expanded genome. I took one thousand and one of again, high quality complete sequences out of the 1300. So for late March [00:07:00] and this time I wanted to look at the mutation rate. How fast does the virus change? Interesting.

    The mutation rate differs between Asia and outside Asia to outside. The virus is mutating one and a half times faster, 50 percent faster than in Asia.

    And and this, I think, potentially supports a suspicion, which I wrote [00:07:30] in the PNAS paper, which is published, that the virus seems to feel comfortable and doesn’t need to change if it has found and a successful genome inside a particular population. But if it moves to a different population with a different disease history and therefore a different immune history, immune response history than other virus variants which are mutated are perhaps more successful. This is not a working hypothesis. I must say. One surprise, [00:08:00] one motivation for me was I perhaps you know this in in Italy, you have these high death rates. You see that these high numbers of deaths, many, many more than in China. And so says most just north of Italy, you have Germany where the mortality seems to be 10 times lower.

    Yes, that’s a miracle.

    Yes. So why is that so? And one idea, of course, that you think of as a scientist is perhaps the virus has evolved a strain in Italy, [00:08:30] which which is a more lethal than the one which is in northern Europe, for example. Well, the first thing I did was check, is there such a difference in strains between Germany and Italy? And to my surprise, at the end of March.

    There are only very few sequences from Italy, Germany, Spain. So there is not enough data for proper comparisons. And if I compare, for example, the database of over a thousand, you know, about one third of them are produced by Chinese scientists. [00:09:00] Another third by American scientists. But for big countries like Italy, Germany, Spain, there’s very, very little. And that, I hope, will change.

    I must say, you know, because we have been watching here in the West what has been happening in China. And you have your lockdown measures. You have given us time. You have given us time to prepare. And I have the impression this time has not always been used everywhere. Yes. Excuse me. Yes.

    So [00:09:30] thank you very much, sir. Next question. As I said to me, evidence of your paper is the coincidence. I always a wire being ape’s and relations between the known cases so far. This method may also help fund the oneil relations between cases, namely to see the cases. So do you see the value of this people?

    Yes. And I think both in China and I hope in the West, we will have a situation [00:10:00] where the lockdown can be completely lifted. And then I think we will have sporadic cases and we need to be prepared with the right tools then to locate where did you get this from? And then you can analyze the context and see, is it likely is it more like the B 5 strain? And that probably comes from this part of the world or is it a 12 strain? And then possibly these people here need to be looked at and potentially quarantined said that.

    Is that an application I see for the future, I hope, is [00:10:30] that by learning how the virus mutates, we can also learn its weaknesses and how to design therapies and vaccines against it. So this is then very fundamental research towards towards designing these effective treatments that I hope might be a contribution.

    There are some quenches it’s about the reaching of the wires. So in order to study its original, the wires, some of my experts friends through to re-examine. So [00:11:00] you flew under the walls and the seal mix of the last to come under winter all around the world. So how do you think about this statistic?

    So the geographical origin, that is something I haven’t directly attempted to do in this PNAS paper, but what you do see is that the virus representatives in D, A and B nodes of both have Chinese [00:11:30] and other East Asian countries prominently represented in there. But also, interestingly, when the oldest a node already has representatives outside East Asia. So in Australia and Canada and so forth. So this spread. That’s my interpretation now, which I haven’t necessarily put in the paper. But I can tell, you know, it it could be older than it’s assumed. And let me go into a little more detail on that. The [00:12:00] first sample which was sequenced and put on the index international database was collected from a patient in Treuhand on Christmas Eve, 2019 on the 24th of December. And we have looked at the mutation rate, as I’ve explained, and we find that if we take a linear regression. So if we extrapolate backwards in time with this mutation rate, we find the first infection must have happened at some point between [00:12:30] the 13th of September 2019 and the 7th of December 2019. And that’s a wide range, but that’s the 95 percent confidence interval. And that means hello, cat. That means that that. When the first sample was sampled from a patient on the 24th of December and who had the disease was already about two or three weeks. In existence [00:13:00] and we are fit, and you can imagine that it takes some time before doctors realize this is something that needs to be analyzed. And most of the samples in December are from the end of December. So really three weeks have passed before we have the first sequence and possibly months of fast because potentially it went back as far back as September.

    So that will make it difficult to really pinpoint the exact location. [00:13:30] One more thing, which I can tell you is that the ancestral A-G know still exists in the sample. One of the people kept two of the people carrying it off a move on. Then I think there is a Canadian in Australia, but one of them is a Belgian. And I was admitted a bit surprised. Why a Belgian? And it turns out this is the first. This is the first Belgian case. This is a man who has married a Chinese woman and he lives in China and works there. And [00:14:00] when the epidemic started, he was flown out by the Belgian government to return to his country along with other Belgian nationals. And then he was the only person on the plane to develop disease in Belgium. And he has this A-type, this ancestral type. And he does not know where he got it from. But the city that he lives in, in China or lived in is 50 kilometres south east of here. So it’s not directly in hand. And he would have got his infection [00:14:30] by about January 2020. So if I were a research in China, I would take a careful look with whom we had contact there. And if there is no connection to hand and take a look at potential other connections and then see if there are agent homes not in Iran, but sort of in in a different area. And we know now that is not the ancestral type. It’s a. So. So I would I would probably. Recommend taking another look at the question of really [00:15:00] whether it came from this fish market in Boofhead or whether there is some other possible source.

    You’ll be intensively reported discussing China. So how are you? Response. Europe and America.

    It’s interesting. The first to respond. The Europeans. So very quickly, you got long articles and they reported on these three strains. It was very popular then.

    I think the second wave of interest was from Chinese [00:15:30] media and I have never had so much interest people from Chinese media.

    I must say, you know, I’m very flattered. But I also heard I also heard late yesterday that there were social media responses where they perhaps over interpreted our paper. And that probably that probably is is one reason why there has [00:16:00] been this interest. Yes. But anyway, that gives us a chance to talk.

    Yes. At the third level now the Americans are getting interested. So I’ve had the first American interviews as I listened.

    The original was the why was the purity a scientific approach? And that has nothing to do with politics. Until recently, some politicians cards, whereas Chinese works all longworth’s and the claim that China should pay for that. How do you see this?

    I I haven’t paid much attention to these [00:16:30] political discussions. Diseases all start somewhere.

    So that’s modern and not important from a moral point of view. But I think our reaction to how to deal with the problem when it arises is important. Thanks very much. So I think because the disease. It’s a common view of the scientific community.

    Researchers might be forgiven for thinking at the time that B is the original type. But actually it’s not. It’s type A, which in one hand is only a minority type, but B has become the majority type during the outbreak. And that is mutated further into C.. Now, the C type is not found in the early phase of the outbreak. In China, it is found outside. For example, it’s well represented in Singapore.

    Q: And your report says B, for example, was different from say that your report [00:00:30] referred to it as a daughter. Does that mean, then, that different people from different races in different countries should seek different treatments because they’ll be afflicted by different versions or different mutations of Kove at 19?

    A: I think that’s the next step. Now, on this basis, to investigate whether a different virus variants have different clinical presentations, it’s by no means needs to be the case. And as I’ve mentioned, we have only a few samples [00:01:00] from key areas such as Italy and Germany so far. So one key question will be to gain a proper sample base and then to see if we can link the viral type that a patient has with the clinical outcome and clinical presentation of that patient that that’s research. I think that is well worth doing.

    Q: And do the symptoms differ according to which mutation you have?
    A: Well, this is exactly what I mean. I [00:01:30] think we need to have, first of all, genomes. We need these data first before we can start asking the question, is there a difference between the virus variant in a patient who might have a and that other patient who might have B or C? Is that a difference in clinical presentation? Do they need different kinds of treatments? Do we need different kinds of vaccines? Those questions need to be asked and research into. Once we have good coverage of the virus genomes in these various areas of the world, the first [00:02:00] sample was collected in one hand by Chinese researchers on the 24th of December 2019. So Christmas Eve, 2019, because we have now and our study in PNAS unravelled the viral tree with the A, B and C types. We can now do something very neat. We can apply the mutation rate of the virus like a clock to our tree and calculate when the outbreak occurred. And [00:02:30] doing this, we find that the first infection, possibly from a bat to a human, happened. No earlier than the 13th of September, 2019 and no later than the 7th of December 2019, so that December, the Christmas Eve sample doesn’t really tell us about the origin of the disease at all.

    What I wanted to do in this research, together with my colleagues, is to identify the original viral genome, the original viral genome type, because the virus mutates or changes and you get variants arising and which is the original one because all these mutations have happened without anybody realizing a disease is among us. This is in well, the first genome that we have is from Christmas Eve in [00:00:30] 2019 would choose a 24th of December, obviously. And what came before that, we don’t know. That is the aim of the paper. And what we have reconstructed is the network of possible trees, how it evolved. We’ve got all the realistic trees included in this network at one glance, which is what other methods can’t do. And then we apply what we called an outgroup. That means an independent, non-human virus, which tells us inside these discursive [00:01:00] trees, which is the oldest virus, Gina. And as an outgroup, you need something which is non-human. So what do you take? You take the bat coronavirus because that’s very closely related to us. And if you apply that, you find out that the location and the network which we’ve called type A is the original type. That would have infected humans and then it would mutated and change into a type B. This Type B was then the [00:01:30] first genome to be picked up in mewhen when the disease became apparent. Researchers might be forgiven for thinking at the time that B is the original type. But actually it’s it’s not. It’s type A, which in one is only a minority type, but B has become the majority type during the outbreak. And that is mutated further into C. Now the C type is not found in the early phase of the outbreak. In China, it is found outside. For example, it’s well represented in Singapore. [00:02:00]

    Q: Now, you first started your research by studying at 19 and Wunan. How does that differ then to the other areas of your research? I didn’t, in fact, start my research in who had I read a section?

    A: My research started when I realised in early February that the outbreak was a serious matter, not simply like a flu epidemic, and that I needed to start right away with my colleagues, too, to understand [00:02:30] how the virus was evolving before it really spreads across the world. So that’s a start of the research. What is not important to consider? Is that the oldest, Gina, which has been placed into the database, is not necessarily the origin of the disease. If I had sampled, you know, someone from Scott, then put him in the database first and obviously it would look as if Scotland was the object that. That is not a [00:03:00] valid approach. And I’m saying this because there are people who do take this approach, but that’s not the way to do it. The first sample was collected in hand by Chinese researchers on the 24th of December, 2019. So Christmas Eve, 2019. And that first sample, that genome sequence, is available for study by international researchers. And since then, many hundred many thousand other sequences have been contributed from across the [00:03:30] world. Because we have now in our study in PNAS unraveled the viral tree with the A, B and C types. We can now do something very neat. We can apply the mutation rate of the virus like a clock to our tree and calculate when the outbreak occurred. And doing this, we find that the first infection, possibly from a bat to a [00:04:00] human, happened. No earlier than the 30th of September, 2019 and no later than the 7th of December 2019 to. This is what we call this span of time between September and early December, the 95 percent confidence range. In other words, there’s only 5 percent chance that the infection from back to human happened before September the 13th. Or after this after December [00:04:30] the 7th. So that December, the Christmas Eve sample doesn’t really tell us about the origin of the disease at all.

    So what I wanted to do in this research together with my colleagues, is to identify the original viral genome, the original viral genome type, because the virus mutates or changes and you get variants arising and which is the original one instrumental in this is the AIDS database.

    So [00:00:30] this is run by the German ministry. And people from across the world, especially from East Asia and China, have contributed their genomic information into this database. What is not important to consider is that the oldest, Gina, which has been placed into the database, is not necessarily the origin of the disease. If [00:01:00] I had sampled, you know, someone from Scotland and put him in the database first, then obviously it would look as if Scotland was the object. That that is not a valid approach.

    My background has mainly [00:01:30] been to trace prehistoric human migration through human molecules. So we we use and have developed software methods to reconstruct prehistoric molecules which no longer exist. And if you apply that, you find out that the location and the network which we’ve called type A is the original type that would have infected humans. Then it would mutated and change into a type B. This Type B was then the first genome to be picked up in Ruthanne [00:02:00] when the disease became apparent. And so researchers might be forgiven for thinking at the time that B is the original type. But actually, it’s it’s not. It’s type A, which in Wunan is only a minority type, but B has become the majority type during the outbreak. And that has mutated further into C. Now, the C type is not found in the early phase of the outbreak in. In China, it is found outside, for example. It’s well represented [00:02:30] in Singapore.

    • Thanks: Vidi, Iris, annamaria
    • Replies: @Been_there_done_that
  390. @denk

    I mean, for the past seventy years [[[they]]] have been zealously denying the Chinese access to high tech, weapon sales, space program, been ethnic cleansing Chinese researchers from Uni labs, slandering them as security risks….It makes no sense….

    Whether or not it makes sense, it has certainly failed!

    • Replies: @denk
  391. Erebus says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    I have seen the underlying infectious curve to look close to a logistics curve (S-shaped) with the maximum at 14 days (hence this is the common quarantine period)

    Perhaps you could share what you’ve seen as I can’t make out what you’re driving at.

    Are you talking about the S-curves showing the rate of infection visible on (EG:) JHU’s dashboard and many other places showing the typical infection numbers rising exponentially from an initial condition until it “tips” into deceleration as it approaches maturity (aka: no new cases)? Of course, there’s a lot of noise in these numbers due to a given country’s testing rate.

    WTF that has to do with skewed mutation probability curves during a time (pre- Dec 14) when we know nothing at all about the infection numbers, or even where the infections were occurring is frankly beyond me. Perhaps you’ll illustrate your thoughts a little more coherently.

    • Replies: @Been_there_done_that
  392. Erebus says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    The agreement to make PBoC a primary dealer?

    Yes

  393. Erebus says:
    @TT

    I was aware of many/most of your data points and in fact posted those willy-nilly in various threads.
    Thanks for organizing a lot of stuff together in one spot.

  394. Iris says:
    @Socratic Truth

    Thanks ever so much for the link; the statement by Pr Luc Montagnier is very intriguing.

    In essence, what he says is that by analysing very carefully the genetic structure, him and a bio-mathematician colleague have come to realise that sequences of HIV virus had been inserted into the genome of SARS-CoV-2, and that this was done in places so specific that it could not have happened by chance, and could have only be performed by very skilled molecular biologists.

    He then adds diplomatically that one has to assume this manipulation was done in good faith, possibly in order to create an AIDS vaccine.

    In his first, full interview (podcast in the link below), he accuses China of covering up an accidental leak at the Wuhan laboratory. He also adds that China’s lab has had help from other nations, including financial and scientific help from the USA, and that all countries should own up as to what research was going on.

    https://www.pourquoidocteur.fr/Articles/Question-d-actu/32190-EXCLUSIF-La-these-d-un-virus-manipule-echappe-d-un-laboratoire-chinois-pave-mare-Pr-Luc-Montagnier

    In a second interview, which came later, Pr Montagnier noticeably retracts from his previous statements, saying that he cannot make accusations against a specific party, but maintains that the virus was obviously engineered due to the insertion of small AIDS virus sequences at specific places within the Coronavirus’ ARN.

    To put things in context, despite being a Nobel Prize laureate, Pr Montagnier has been stood aside by the official scientific community because of unorthodox positions, towards vaccines in particular. So he may be having a dig at the French government which played an important role in setting up the Wuhan lab.

    What is extraordinary is that in the current context of China-bashing, the MSM are completely outraged by his anti-Chinese declaration. Clearly, the problem lies elsewhere: talking about an engineered virus is a political taboo.

  395. Parfois1 says:
    @Vidi

    If the US turned thief, the international usage of the dollar would fall like a stone.

    Are you serious? The most rapacious power since the end of the British Empire, occupying lands in every continent and many strategic islands to enforce its ownership, the blatant use of state power to support high end thievery by the crony vulture funds, the “disappearance” of the gold hoards of many countries invaded, more recently Iraq and Libya, the confiscation of many countries’ assets (eg. bank accounts) in the US, work hand-in-glove with the sidekick thief Israel, and so on and on. And you write “IF”?

    • Agree: Iris
    • LOL: Vidi
  396. denk says:
    @TT

    Why’d the rabid sinophobic [[[cabal]]] allowed Chinese participation in dual purpose CV research, all expenses paid. ?

    It doesnt make sense.
    Unless….

    *It looks like [[[They]]] have been setting China up for long time with joint study of bats Coronavirus before launching global bioterrorism to scapegoat China hence decoupling it.*

    SET UP.

    Funny That phrase have been buzzing in my mind for some time now

    How many here ever heard of the Wuhan biolab, never mind Shi Zheng Li, let alone her long career history, before the shit hit the fan in Wuhan ?

    I can see nobody raise their hands , no surprise there’

    I’ve never heard of Shi before Wuhan either.
    mIND you, I had a keen interest in such matter after the Made In USA SARS race specific bioweapon hit China in 2003, followed by all kind of HXNX craps known to man in later years, up to this very day.

    Yet from the outset, after the Wuhan outbreak, there was an army of anons and newbies here and MOA, who trotted out the wuhan lab and Shi’s long career, especially her researches on CV as
    THE SMOKING GUN OF CHINESE CULPABILITY.,

    By now, Shi must be a household name.

    As we know, anons and newbies in a China thread should’ve raised the red flag, especially when they seem to be people in the loop, kinda like privy to a script, they seemed to be telling us how the plot would play out.

    The current trend and meme on Chinese screw up at the lab, its alleged cover up, the hue and cries for reparation etc etc., seems to bear this out.

    Ever since those apparent ‘insiders’ swarmed the forums ,I have this ominous thought like you, the Chinese might have been set up , walking into a trap with eyes wide shut.

    • Replies: @Seraphim
  397. denk says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    After imposing an all out global Chinese exclusion act on China, uncle sham had the cheek to apply for a seat in the up and coming Chinese space station !

    I heard it has been duly rejected.

    • Replies: @Vidi
  398. Parfois1 says:
    @Erebus

    It’s interesting to note that the national de facto performance rankings on JHU’s chart are an almost perfect inversion of the de jure rankings they received on the JHU sponsored “Global Health Security Index”

    Parbleu! Very observant of you. I have been noticing some oddities in the “scores charts” but missed that stark comparison. It just confirms the institutional confirmation bias coming out from the official mouthpieces. It is that consistent propaganda that reinforces our perception that whatever they do it has a meaning and purpose – that consistency cannot be explained as random occurrences – as if events obey a pre-determined masterplan supported by a specific narrative.

  399. Parfois1 says:
    @denk

    It makes no sense. Unless ……….

    It does make good (evil) sense, and you know it! Come on, share it with us… although I think I know what it is. (Hint, plausible deniability).

    • Replies: @denk
  400. denk says:
    @Parfois1

    Yes thats [[[their]]] script all along.

    There’s this bio lab in Wuhan.

    They’v been doing this kind of research all along.

    We have the proof here, see this report at the prestigious Nature, Shi’s name was right there.

    hehehehe

  401. Vidi says:
    @denk

    After imposing an all out global Chinese exclusion act on China, uncle sham had the cheek to apply for a seat in the up and coming Chinese space station !

    Not only that. According to SCMP (link), the US is apparently planning to follow China to a landing on the Moon’s far side. (As everyone knows, Chang-e 4 successfully landed there on January 3, 2019.) After banning China from participating in the International Space Station, the Americans had the nerve to ask for use of China’s communication satellite (Quequiao) for their far-side mission.

    However, the article is by SCMP and may not be totally reliable.

    • Replies: @denk
    , @d dan
  402. denk says:
    @Vidi

    I read that in Chinese media too, could be true.

    Btw, iNDIA the back stabbing sepoy also applied for a seat in the Space station….
    and had been approved.

    What’r those Chinese smoking ???

    • Replies: @TT
  403. Seraphim says:
    @denk

    @How many here ever heard of the Wuhan biolab, never mind Shi Zheng Li, let alone her long career history, before the shit hit the fan in Wuhan ?

    Quite a few and for a very long time. In 1981 one of ‘the best-selling authors of all time’, Dean Koontz wrote “The Eyes of Darkness” (reissued in 2008). The book tells of a Chinese military lab that creates a virus as part of its biological weapons programme. The lab is located in Wuhan, which lends the virus its name, Wuhan-400:
    “It was around that time that a Chinese scientist named Li Chen moved to the United States while carrying a floppy disk of data from China’s most important and dangerous new biological weapon of the past decade. They call it Wuhan-400 because it was developed in their RDNA laboratory just outside the city of Wuhan.”
    What is particularly interesting is that in the first edition (published under the pseudonym Leigh Nicholls) the virus was called Gorki-400 and produced in Russia. But in the edition of 1989, published under his own name, he changed the story and Gorki became Wuhan! Critics didn’t miss the reason of the change. 1989 was the year of Reagan-Gorbachov dalliance, end of Cold War, Russia no more the Evil Empire. 1989 was the year of Tienanmen Square ‘massacre’. The new Evil Empire was found.
    Who can say that life does not imitate art? Don’t be surprised if his book would be invoked as a ‘proof’.

    • Replies: @denk
  404. Erebus says:
    @Iris

    … sequences of HIV virus had been inserted into the genome of SARS-CoV-2, and that this was done in places so specific that it could not have happened by chance… He then adds diplomatically that one has to assume this manipulation was done in good faith, possibly in order to create an AIDS vaccine.

    Interestingly, Montagnier’s “specific places” echoes Dr. Pekova’s “control room”. A pity the interviewer didn’t push him for more detail on why those place were important. She may not have recognized the HIV sequences for what they were, and Montagnier may have considered the “trashing” secondary – the inevitable collateral damage of gene insertion.

    Clearly, the problem lies elsewhere: talking about an engineered virus is a political taboo.

    You bet it is. All parties involved in the field, guilty or innocent, have a vested interest in getting this topic off the front pages asap.

    Should it come out that this mass destruction of so many people’s life and livelihood was caused by some cowboy(s) in a lab, there wouldn’t be a lab left standing. Perhaps a few cowboys would go down as well.

    • Replies: @Iris
  405. d dan says:
    @Vidi

    “After banning China from participating in the International Space Station, the Americans had the nerve to ask for use of China’s communication satellite (Quequiao) for their far-side mission.”

    I heard that too.

    Since people are talking about space tech, I want to share another interesting factoid. Apparently, when an object landed on the moon (and probably other planets as well), the dust plume it stirs up contains wealthy amount of scientific info (e.g. calculation of the gravitational field, composition of the dust, etc). Therefore, the video of the dust plume is always an extremely important output of any landing.

    Since it was the first time any human object landed on the far side, obviously its dust plume pattern is very important to scientists. NASA has a permanent satellite circling the moon, and it asked China for the exact timing of the landing. China knew NASA wanted to record the video of the dust plume, and “accidentally” informed NASA just in time when its satellite orbit adjustment missed the landing.

    To date, China never releases the video of the dust plume.

    • Replies: @Parfois1
  406. Ber says:
    @denk

    In this video by Benjamin Fulford who claimed that the ownership of the Wuhan lab can be traced back to the George Soros Foundation and that there is forensic proof of this…the Soros Foundation is a front for the Rothschilds Family…as claimed by Fulford. See video below starts at 1.11 minute.

    • Replies: @denk
  407. antibeast says:
    @Erebus

    The PBoC has its own account with the Treasury, and in effect is its own primary dealer though it doesn’t (iirc) sell the paper onwards except through one of the other primary dealers.

    The PBoC doesn’t have an “account” with the US Treasury because the latter is not a bank but a government agency. The PBoC does have an account with the Bank of International Settlements where currency swaps are effected with foreign Central Banks in addition to swap lines established with certain foreign Central Banks but not with the US Federal Reserve System.

    Wikipedia says (in bold):

    United States Treasury securities are government debt instruments issued by the United States Department of the Treasury to finance government spending as an alternative to taxation. Treasury securities are often referred to simply as Treasurys. Since 2012, U.S. government debt has been managed by the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, succeeding the Bureau of the Public Debt.

    There are four types of marketable treasury securities: Treasury bills, Treasury notes, Treasury bonds, and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). The government sells these securities in auctions conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, after which they can be traded in secondary markets. Non-marketable securities include savings bonds, issued to the public and transferable only as gifts; the State and Local Government Series (SLGS), purchaseable only with the proceeds of state and municipal bond sales; and the Government Account Series, purchased by units of the federal government.

    Treasury securities are backed by the full faith and credit of the United States, meaning that the government promises to raise money by any legally available means to repay them. Although the United States is a sovereign power and may default without recourse, its strong record of repayment has given Treasury securities a reputation as one of the world’s lowest-risk investments.

    Note my emphasis on the bold sentences above. The only way for the US Government to “cancel” its debt is to default on its Treasuries. But that would prompt the international capital markets to downgrade the market value of T-Bills which would make it more expensive for the US Government to issue more debt.

    Treasury paper is serialized, and registered as to who purchased it, or at least which primary dealer purchased it. So, the US Treasury could indeed declare such paper as the PBoC holds in its account at the US Treasury null & void by simply listing the PBoC’s papers’ serial numbers and so declaring without affecting the value of any others.

    The primary dealers buy the initial issuance at auctions conducted by the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Those T-bills are then sold to secondary markets by the primary dealers. The PBoC may then buy those T-bills in international capital markets from foreign banks. Whether T-Bills are serially numbered is irrelevant because they’re bearer notes similar to currency.

    The PBoC and the US Treasury came to that agreement at the PBoC’s insistence during the GFC of a decade ago.

    I will believe you if you can provide a link proving your statement above.

    • Replies: @Erebus
    , @Vidi
    , @Erebus
  408. @Erebus

    Perhaps you could share what you’ve seen…

    I do not have a habit of saving and cataloguing everything interesting I come across when I read or observe things on the Internet. The S-curve I had seen looked very similar to the one shown and described in Figure 2 at the following link, which I found in a search to answer your question. It is a cumulative probability curve showing the incubation period – the time between viral exposure and onset of symptoms – based on infected travelers from Wuhan in January:

    https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.5.2000062

    Enlarged:

    Roughly 50% have become infected within five to six days, and 90% within ten days. These early data are more reliable because back then it was still possible to do the tedious individual tracing of infected individuals, so it was more easy to reliably pin-point the specific transmitter, and when that transmission likely occurred due to contact. Nowadays, due to the relative prevalence of the virus, this tracing exercise would be too difficult.

    The incubation period needs to be distinguished from the infectious period, during which time the disease can be transmitted. For the Wuhan virus this latter period begins one or two days before symptoms are noticed, and lasts between seven to twelve days, but on average fourteen days for more severe cases.

    This is relevant when investigating mutation rates in an effort to project backwards in time because one should want to know the mean number of transmissions associated with a distinctive mutation from a prior sequence pattern.

    When you have such variability in relevant input data (incubation period, infectious period, number of transmissions per infectious person) the aggregation and evaluation process to derive mutation rates for earlier time spans necessarily gets fuzzy, hence my earlier reference to tweaking the data, including the methodology of processing the cumulative data in the model itself.

    On the basis of very high doubling rates during the early transmission, and the critical mass of hospitalized patients with acute symptoms needed to arouse attention at clinics, one can reasonably assume that the necessarily asymmetrical confidence curve for the time of initial infection would have to be skewed more heavily forward in time than backward, toward September or earlier along the rapidly diminishing single tail thickness. Consequences from an earlier initial infection would have already aroused clinical attention earlier than was actually the case.

  409. @Erebus

    “Likely”? Really? And do you have any “details and corroboration” for that gratuitous claim?

    The claim is much more plausible than what you have been fantasizing about. Consider the following points:

    • It was known from the scientific literature that scientists at the Institute of Virology in Wuhan were investigating and experimenting with exactly the same types of bat-based corona viruses as the one that has caused the current pandemic.

    • Shi Zhengli, the so-called “bat woman” was quoted in a March Scientific American article as having asked herself, suggesting this was definitely possible; also quoted her as having not slept for days about this question: If coronaviruses were the culprit, she remembers thinking, “could they have come from our lab?”

    • Researchers at the lab in Wuhan were familiar with “gain of function” research and viral enhancements such as engineering chimeras through nanotechnology.

    • A Chinese researcher associated with the lab in Wuhan, highlighted in a previous article at this web site, had stolen samples from the only Canadian level-4 biological lab in Winnipeg, indicating a determination to be at the forefront of bioweapons research.

    • Documented cases of sloppiness resulting in infection of a worker at the lab or animals having escaped, were featured in the media, highlighting the fact that accidental releases are possible.

    • Reported instances of lab animals having been sold at the wet market; presumably it was thought that because these animals had survived infections that the presumed antibodies would transfer to the person who ate them.

    • Association of the Wuhan lab with research institutes at the University of North Carolina and also in Australia.

    • The cases you alluded to (vaping deaths) occurred much earlier in time, and the presumptive viruses that caused these effects did not have nearly the same degree of infectiousness. Therefore, though they may have been similar types of infections based on similar viruses, they were more likely to have been viral prototypes that were subsequently enhanced by the researchers in Wuhan. If these cases are even related then you are trying to conflate a basic virus that may have come from Maryland, based on similar symptoms of those who were affected by it, with a subsequently modified and more powerful version, the latter of which is the investigative topic.

    • Based on a Chinese news report (domain .cn) the US military patients who fell ill had malaria, and the conspiratorial speculation, which you are indulging in even now, was unwarranted. The link to the English language story had been posted in one of the numerous threads on this web site about that topic.

    It would hint equally strongly that one of their operatives in those labs they were funding released it accidentally/on purpose.

    It would be hard to distinguish between who is a military “operative” or a scientific “associate”. You continue to want to entertain an intentional release, but that would be completely counterproductive from a tactical perspective, even more so when no known antidote exists and the effects are unknown, but you simply wind up doubling down and then hypothesize a nefarious intent anyway: “when some mischief needs releasing“.

    Your series of confabulations are certainly not more likely, which is why they should to be discounted as implausible.

    …I’d expect Xi to be concerned about 100 things more important than a few dead patients in Wuhan. … The real question is what data did the intelligence agencies have in mid-Nov, and why did they think it was so dangerous at a time when the number of cases was infinitesimally small?

    Here you have exposed your strong political bias in a peculiar juxtaposition that is truly humorous, negating any sense of analytical approach or objectivity: The Benevolent Leader did not need to be aware of an emerging pandemic in a major city in his country, at a time when public warnings had been issued, because he should be concerned with “about 100 things more important“. Yet the intelligence agency that allegedly reported on an incident in November was supposed to have already thought it was “so dangerous” that all those who had learned about it did not do anything about it.

    • Replies: @annamaria
    , @Erebus
  410. @Godfree Roberts

    Here’s a machine transcript of his video interviews:

    Thank you for the suggestion. I hope you did not bother to produce the long transcript yourself because I had already seen the video a few days ago.

    Unfortunately there is no confidence or probability curve available to support the conclusions from the study, as I had hoped to see.

    I could not find a reference in Forster’s research paper for the following quote in the interview, so perhaps he was just speaking informally:

    No earlier than the 13th of September, 2019 and no later than the 7th of December 2019

    This assertion already seems dubious with regard to the end date of December 7 because a later date would have also been possible if both incubation ans infection periods preceding conditions would have been on the low end of their ranges, unless it were known that the specific patient from whom the sequence that was obtained on December 24 had already been in the hospital for at least a week.

    To obtain more information one is supposed to go to the following site and download a spreadsheet with data on 1001 genomes; the link is near the top:

    https://www.fluxus-technology.com/cov2020.htm

    The spreadsheet contains nine tabs. The analyses are for both “Asian” and “Non-Asian”.

    I went to the tab entitled “A”, representing the A-Strain. Both linear regression tables are forward-looking, showing respective periods of time after December 24, when the initial genome sample used in the study was taken.

    The data are scattered, so a linear regression appears to be just a simplistic, standard mechanism commonly used for any kind of plotted data. The Asian regression line is virtually horizontal.

    If the purported time of transmission from “bat” to human is supposed to be the intercept of the regression lines with the abscissa – horizontal line at y=0 (y is mutational distance) – then this would have happened years ago for Asians, due to the relatively flat slope, but still after December 24 for Non-Asians, with the implication being that the virus must have originated in Asia.

    This methodology of taking a relatively small sample of scattered data and trying to derive useful temporal information from a relatively flat regression line is inherently unreliable.

    Any one can attempt their own assessment. To me the result, with respect to finding Point-Zero on a timeline is a just a “nothing-burger”.

    • Thanks: Godfree Roberts
  411. Erebus says:
    @antibeast

    I will believe you if you can provide a link proving your statement above.

    Fair enough. I’ll try to find one.
    The discussions concerning the PBoC’s then new arrangements with Treasury were discussed in the late 2000s. There may still be some around so give me a day or two.

  412. annamaria says:

    “…though they may have been similar types of infections based on similar viruses, they were more likely to have been viral prototypes that were subsequently enhanced by the researchers in Wuhan…”

    — What if the US had the “proper” version already and this version then affected China?

    Maryland Department of Health, January 2019:

    Symptoms of Vaping-Associated Lung Injury

    These injuries often seem like pneumonia, but they are not caused by an infectious disease, and they do not improve with antibiotics. Respiratory symptoms reported include: shortness of breath, chest pain, pain on breathing, and cough. Other symptoms reported by many patients include: fever, chills, nausea, weight loss, vomiting, diarrhea, or abdominal pain. … Many patients have required medical treatment with supplemental oxygen. Some required assisted ventilation.

    “Cases of Vaping-Associated Lung Injury:” (Maryland, January 28, 2019): https://phpa.health.maryland.gov/OEHFP/EH/Pages/VapingIllness.aspx

    “Vaping illness in Maryland in August 2019“: https://www.wmar2news.com/franchise/indian-river-lagoon/health/5-serious-vape-related-illnesses-in-maryland

    “US vaping illness deaths rise to 18 with 1,000 cases reported” (October 2019): https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49929276

    First Covid-19 case happened in China in November 2019: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/first-covid-19-case-happened-in-november-china-government-records-show-report

    Wikipedia is, unsurprisingly, in a lying mode re the dates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–2020_vaping_lung_illness_outbreak

    • Replies: @Iris
  413. denk says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    as soon as the probability of an intentional viral release, for various reasons, as opposed to an accident, is discounted,

    For someone who chided others for sloppy prob consideration, what’d you say about the following ?

    Conditional prob
    [CV19 was an accident/ Given that……

    It occured at,

    A period of peak migration,

    A major hub for domestic rail and international flight,

    After almost an entire year of dry run on dealing with a pandemic originated from China,

    After Gates actually warned about an outbreak from a Chinese wet market in Nov 19

    After Gates presided over a simulation of global pandemic in Oct 19,

    After an avalanche of unnatural disasters…

    February 15, 2018: H7N4 bird flu. Sickened at least 1,600 people in China and killed more than 600. Many chickens killed. China needs to purchase US poultry products.
    June, 2018: H7N9 bird flu. Many chickens killed. China needs to purchase US poultry products.
    August, 2018: outbreak of African swine flu. Same strain as Russia, from Georgia. Millions of pigs killed. China needs to purchase US pork products.
    May 24, 2019: massive infestation of armyworms in 14 province-level regions in China, which destroy most food crops. Quickly spread to more than 8,500 hectares of China’s grain production. They produce astonishing numbers of eggs. China needs to purchase US agricultural products – corn, soybeans.
    December, 2019: Coronavirus appearance puts China’s economy on hold.
    January, 2020: China is hit by a “highly pathogenic” strain of bird flu in Hunan province. Many chickens died, many others killed. China needs to purchase US poultry products.

    After two years of trade blitzkrieg failed to achieve Trump’s coveted decoupling from China…….

    In the midst of intense provocations at TW straits and SCS/]

    = ??

    https://www.veteranstoday.com/2020/03/19/larry-romanoff-did-the-virus-originate-in-the-us/

    • Replies: @Parfois1
  414. @Iris

    In essence, what he says is that by analysing very carefully the genetic structure, him and a bio-mathematician colleague have come to realise that sequences of HIV virus had been inserted into the genome of SARS-CoV-2, and that this was done in places so specific that it could not have happened by chance, and could have only be performed by very skilled molecular biologists.

    Montagnier is likely referring to a scientific paper publicized more than two months ago on the Internet by a research team in India. These specific insertions were referred to as “HIV delivery system“, or HIV-120, which actually refers specifically to an envelope glycoprotein (GP120):

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Envelope_glycoprotein_GP120

    Here is a quote:

    Efforts to develop HIV vaccines targeting gp120, however, have been hampered by the chemical and structural properties of gp120, which make it difficult for antibodies to bind to it.

    The entire “HIV virus” construct has been a scientific fraud sine its inception in April 1984. The alleged HIV retrovirus was never isolated according to the guidelines set forth by the Pasteur Institute, but was merely inferred, due to political correctness. Maintaining the HIV-120″ nomenclature tacitly reinforces the false notion that HIV is real. Accordingly, Montagnier never deserved to receive his Nobel Prize for the reasons cited. HIV was supposed to have “caused” AIDS – a syndrome with 29 associated diseases – but that was only by virtue of a circular definition that essentially decreed it to be so.

    Associating the Wuhan virus with HIV is therefore misleading. What is relevant is that the GP120 facilitates the viral attachment to cell receptors and is difficult to combat with antibodies. The three insertion points detected by the Indian research team in their research paper provided the proof that the world was dealing with an engineered (enhanced) chimeric virus. The intent was for the virus to become more aggressive and pervasive. For whatever reason, the research team eventually withdrew their paper (still available online), no doubt due to pressure coming from somewhere.

    What is obvious by now is that the Establishment has made it taboo to openly acknowledge the engineered nature of the virus. Had the population been aware of this early on, it would have been taken more seriously instead of denigrating it as just another flu virus that jumped from an animal to humans.

  415. TT says:
    @denk

    China is focusing on preventing US attempt to gang up too many vassals to join attack it.
    8. 用兵之法,十则围之,五则攻之,倍则分之,敌则能战之,少则能逃之,不若则能避之。

    上兵伐谋,其次伐交,其次伐兵,其下攻城。

    India is very aggressive and never hide its ambitious to beat China and takeover US. Its geographical location made it impossible for China to ignore.

    Is India Superpower or Superpowder by 2020 as it bragged since 1998?
    https://scroll.in/article/948319/india-superpower-2020-tracing-the-brief-history-of-a-spectacularly-incorrect-prediction

    In 2008, a decade after his book was published, Kalam brought forward India’s rendezvous date with superpowerdom to 2012. “Though I have envisioned India to become a superpower by 2020, the attitude and the confidence of the youth, to conquer everything in the right spirit, would make the country a global leader and super power within five years,” the by-then former president said with an admirable sense of self-belief.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Swamy39/status/268147222116454401

    But China know clearly India is a totally broken nation impossible to develop. It can’t even built a decent fighter plane Tejas or toilets for 750M Indians still defecating outdoor. So India is not even in same league with China to threaten.
    7.知彼知己,百战不殆;不知彼知己,一胜一负,不知彼不知己,每战必殆。
    10.不战而屈人之兵,善之善者也。

    India will implode with 1600M poors by 2030.
    https://www.quora.com/Will-India-be-the-number-1-superpower-as-US-India-propagate-or-implode-with-1-6B-unemployable-poorly-educated-population-by-2030/answer/Thomas-Edward-71

    《孙子兵法》
    1.兵无常势,水无常形,能因敌变化而取胜者,谓之神。
    2.知可以战与不可以战者,胜。
    3.善用兵者,避其锐气,击其惰归。
    4.兵者,诡道也,故能而示之不能,用而示之不用,近而示之远,远而示之近。
    5.利而诱之,乱而取之,实而备之,强而避之。
    6.攻其无备,出其不意
    7.知彼知己,百战不殆;不知彼知己,一胜一负,不知彼不知己,每战必殆。
    8.用兵之法,十则围之,五则攻之,倍则分之,敌则能战之,少则能逃之,不若则能避之。
    9.投之亡地然后存,陷之死地然后生。
    10.百战百胜,非善之善者也;不战而屈人之兵,善之善者也。

    “上兵伐谋,其次伐交,其次伐兵,其下攻城。

    • Replies: @Seraphim
    , @Ber
  416. denk says:

    If Indians are as smart as they claim, they would’nt have made such boisterous claim to ‘the next superpower’.
    That’s the cardinal sin in the eyes of their anglo cousins.

    Bharat can get away with anything , for now, cuz its an useful asset for fukus , as cannon fodder to confront China.
    BUt its well advertised aspiration to superpower state cannot go unnoticed in Washington/London.

    • Replies: @denk
  417. annamaria says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    And the US ‘intelligence agencies’ knew miraculously about the covid-19 dangers in November: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/04/17/us-knew-report-says-american-intel-threat-coronavirus-was-shared-israel-and-nato

    The Times of Israel reported that U.S. intelligence agencies were aware of the disease as early as the second week of November and shared the information with President Donald Trump’s White House, NATO, and Israel.

    Some prescience! Were the agencies aware of this? “Cases of Vaping-Associated Lung Injury,” Maryland, January 28, 2019: https://phpa.health.maryland.gov/OEHFP/EH/Pages/VapingIllness.aspx

    Yes, it was January 2019 in the US, well ahead of the spread of the virus in China in November 2019.

  418. Iris says:
    @Erebus

    A pity the interviewer didn’t push him for more detail on why those place were important.

    Pr Montagnier, in both interviews, referred to the Indian (only) paper who purports to have identified insertions of HIV virus into SARS-CoV-2.
    Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag
    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1

    This paper has been criticized by virilogists, including Chinese ones, for faulty methodology and misleading conclusions:
    Scientists Criticize Un-Peer Reviewed Indian Study That Fuelled Coronavirus Conspiracies
    https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-12/scientists-rush-to-decipher-coronavirus-in-unvetted-preprint-papers-101514290.html

    As a consequence, the Indian authors withdrew the pre-issue over two months ago, and did not re-submit an updated version. This does not speak in favour of their scientific competence; two months is plenty of time to correct non-fundamental flaws.

    Pr Montagnier also refers to this study, in English, by French bio-mathematician Dr Perez, whom he helped interpreting the genetic aspect:
    WUHAN COVID-19 SYNTHETIC ORIGINS AND EVOLUTION

    The main result of this updated release is the formal proof that 2019-nCoV coronavirus is partially a SYNTHETIC genome. We proof the CONCENTRATION in a small région of Wuhan New genome (300bp) of 3 different régions from HIV1 ENVELOPPE gene and 3 others from HIV2 and SIV (ENV and POL RT). All this is remarkable and bears the mark of a desire for organization of a human nature: LOGIC, SYMETRIES

    https://zenodo.org/record/3724003#.XpsS7W5FxfG

    These demonstrations are weak and unconvincing: the Indian team was unable to respond to scientific criticism, the French duo’s article is a one-man job, and they are criticised by equally competent French virologists, one of whom even defends the competence of Wuhan lab biologists.
    http://www.leparisien.fr/societe/coronavirus-et-vih-pourquoi-la-theorie-du-pr-luc-montagnier-est-invraisemblable-17-04-2020-8301387.php

    So I am not convinced by Pr Luc Montagnier, and this a contrario well illustrates the superior work of Pr Forster whose methodology and data are transparent for all to scrutinise ans challenge.

    What I found strikingly interesting is the undeniable and well-choreographed media frenzy denying the virus was engineered. Now, that is something to witness Western MSM flying to the defence of a Chinese Bio lab, LOL. Best.

  419. Erebus says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    Everyone here has long been aware of all the points you raised, as well as the dubiousness associated with some of them. All have been discussed, and several have been debunked on this site. An equal (or more) number of points, of at least equal (or more) import can and have been raised to suggest the outbreak began in the US, not least of them the fact that there’s a few genetic and epidemiological analyses that suggest a US origin while none suggest a Chinese origin.

    For the Record: I would have no problem at all accepting an accidental, or even intentional release from a Wuhan lab if the evidence led there. In fact, the former was my first explanation, and it remains a distinct possibility in my pantheon of possibilities.

    The claim is much more plausible than what you have been fantasizing about.

    Enlighten me. What have I been fantasizing about?

    Here you have exposed your strong political bias in a peculiar juxtaposition that is truly humorous, negating any sense of analytical approach or objectivity: The Benevolent Leader did not need to be aware of an emerging pandemic in a major city in his country, at a time when public warnings had been issued

    Enlighten me, what strong political bias do I have?

    I’ve lived and worked under a variety of governing systems, from parliamentary democracies, to monarchies, to military dictatorships, as well as the Chinese system which is a category of its own. How many have you lived/worked under? I’m biased to what works. What are you biased to?

    Leaving your juvenile sarcasm to one side yet again, I’ve spent some time on other threads here strongly criticizing China’s public health authorities’ initial response. And yes, Presidents are concerned with matters of State, and though one could make a case that SARS-2 should have been escalated more quickly by the Chinese bureaucracy (as I have elsewhere), one would very hard pressed to argue that it was a matter for the Politburo prior to early January.

    It may surprise you to learn that Xi Jingping’s role is very different from a President in the American mold. Simplifying somewhat, in the Chinese system he represents and speaks for the consensus decisions taken by the Politburo’s Standing Committee. The week delay that the ToI mentions is the lag between the Committee being informed, then debating and taking its decision to take Wuhan’s still quite local problem to the national level, which Xi duly announced.

    In contrast, the White House learned that the NCMI’s analysts had concluded that Wuhan presented a serious threat to national security in mid-Nov, and then was briefed continuously on developments thru Dec. That the American system thought the information important enough to warn its favourite allies, but did nothing to prepare the country, (in fact impeding local preparations), hardly recommends being as biased towards it as your words suggest you to be.

    From where I sit, the primary question in this puzzle now revolves around what did the NCMI know and how did they know it? They clearly knew things even the Chinese authorities didn’t know about Wuhan’s situation in very early Nov if their analyses reached the white House mid-Nov. What data were they working with that the Chinese either weren’t privy to, or didn’t recognize?

  420. denk says:
    @Seraphim

    I heard a lot about Koonz’s book.

    This one says ‘by 2008, the location had been changed from Russia to Wuhan’.

    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/dean-koontz-predicted-coronavirus/

    I was thinking has it got anything to do with the secret mason meeting in 2005, where [[[they]]] joked about
    China will catch a cold ??

  421. Thanks for the great article.
    I am living in a city close to Wuhan after coming back from California, and I have many friends living in Wuhan.
    No one got infected as far as I know, but people were really scared because of 2003 SARS.
    There were rumours about SARS outbreak in Wuhan starting early Jan after New Year 3-days Holiday.
    My friend warned us in a group chat and do not visit Wuhan.

    The US soldiers lived in Wuhan Oriental Hotel, which is around 300 meters away from the Huanan Seafood market and next the train station. Five US soldiers were sick of fever and treated with malaria.

    Many people in China suspect the US soldiers were Patient 0 in Wuhan. However, the Chinese social platforms are deleting related articles and videos about the topic.

    Trump has changed his China Virus statement.

    Is China and US making a deal about the outbreak and origin? Is there gonna be a war?
    I have many Asian friends living in US now afraid of race discrimination.

  422. Iris says:
    @annamaria

    — What if the US had the “proper” version already and this version then affected China?

    Dear Annamaria, this is why the identification of successive A, B and C strains by the Cambridge team is so important.

    – The ancestor A Strain being prevalent in only 3 countries (China, USA and Australia) is not consistent with the virus originating in Wuhan. It would equate at concluding that, out of that major Chinese transport hub serving the world, the virus would have selectively decided to travel only to the USA and Australia.

    – The ancestor A Strain is scarce in Wuhan, where the epidemic is overwhelmingly caused by its daughter the B strain. However, this A strain is strong enough to survive, thrive and cause the bulk of the epidemic in the US West Coast.
    So unless one can demonstrate a good scientific reason, such as the A strain being less compatible with Asians’ genetic heritage for instance, there is no reason for its replacement by a B Strain, other than the fact there was not enough of A Strain in Wuhan in the first place, because it had travelled from somewhere else.

    The thinking above shows that the likelihood of the virus NOT originating in China is extremely high; it does not prove that SARS-CoV-2 originated in the USA, and also, it does not really explain how and why Strain B appeared in China.

    • Thanks: annamaria
  423. denk says:
    @Ber

    Wuhan bio lab was a state proj., does Fulford mean that CCP is owned by Soros , that’d be hilarious . !

  424. @Erebus

    What have I been fantasizing about?
    .
    …what strong political bias do I have?

    You have been fantasizing wishfully about the strong likelihood of an intentional release of an engineered bioweapon, by US operatives, onto the Chinese population, even though (a) there is no evidence anyone even understood what the effects might be in a worst case scenario, (b) that there was no antidote, and (c) that the US officials were themselves unprepared to defend against it – not to mention that (d) they had a variety of safer means to conduct economic warfare, if that had been their intent. In other words, to believe your fantasy, the US intentionally launched a type of suicidal attack on itself and its allies.

    Your bias is clearly toward the Chinese government, and you are willing to assist in their cover-up by promoting an alternative outbreak scenario, for which there is no evidence, and which is inconsistent with the observed spreading pattern. I have already suggested that you could be conflating a local and limited outbreak in Maryland, of a basic virus last summer, with an enhanced version of such a virus, yielding a more deadly outbreak.

    Due to your bias you are blowing up tendentious and uncorroborated reports from the gutter press (UK tabloids like Express, Israeli TV) while ignoring documented and relevant information from the scientific literature, thereby exposing yourself as just another shill; whether it is a voluntary endeavor or a paid service doesn’t really matter. Your affinity is so strong that you even became offended by sarcastic terms as “Dear Leader” and “Benevolent Leader”. Do you have a picture of the Life-Long Leader hanging on your bedroom wall?

    What data were they working with that the Chinese either weren’t privy to, or didn’t recognize?

    This is impossible for an outsider to answer. I presume that some Chinese officials or scientists at the labs in Wuhan were privy to the same information and immediately recognized it for what it was, even more so than US intelligence, because the scientists were the experts at the scene.

    According to ABC News: “The report was the result of analysis of wire and computer intercepts, coupled with satellite images.

    • Replies: @Erebus
  425. d dan says:
    @Erebus

    “Enlighten me. What have I been fantasizing about?”

    You talk facts, not fantasies. Thank you for your perseverance and good senses.

    • Replies: @Iris
  426. @Erebus

    I forgot to include this in my response, about points I have previously raised:

    All have been discussed, and several have been debunked on this site.

    Some have been discussed and remain a point of disagreement; others have been completely ignored; none of them have been debunked, unless you want to include a recent editing error, which I have acknowledged (three full months instead of four full months).

    So please, as a challenge to anyone: Tell me, specifically, what you believe has been conclusively debunked, on this thread or any other thread on this site during the past few years, and why you think it was debunked, rather than just challenged.

    • Replies: @denk
  427. Iris says:
    @d dan

    Completely agree. Erebus is one of the principal treasures of the Unz Review.

    • Thanks: Erebus
    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  428. denk says:
    @denk

    that’s reply to TT.

  429. glib says:
    @Iris

    Thank you, and thanks for providing the best commentary to this article. Without a doubt the graph will evolve over time. Over time, also, the x-axis should be replaced by

    #excess deaths/#of exposed people

    we have numbers on percentage of exposed people from Denmark, Germany, and the Bay Area, with numbers approaching 15% of population. Excess deaths can be computed year over year, a noisy but unbiased metric. There will still be outliers since, for example, Lombardy is such an extreme set of circumstances.

    So I am criticizing the WHO and not you.

  430. @Ron Unz

    The evidence shows California was spared by weather, living conditions/population density and other factors, not an early lockdown.

    1. California barely has less deaths than Florida per million, even though Florida did not lockdown early and had a more lenient lockdown. Never mind all the old people!

    2. South Dakota looks substantially the same as its neighbors that went into full lockdown.

    The biggest factors that correlate with death rates between states are not early lockdowns or even lockdowns, period. It’s weather, population density and other factors. Same goes for countries – see Mexico and Southeast Asia.

    California was saved by weather, single-family housing, low use of public transportation etc. If California remained open – like South Dakota – there’s reason to believe their death rate would not be substantially greater.

  431. Seraphim says:
    @TT

    M.K. Bhadrakumar, who knows something about Indians, had a fortunate expression: Indians are endowed with ‘a Himalayan ego’.
    To wit:
    “The Americans are vastly experienced with the Indians’ Himalayan ego and by now they know well enough where and how to tickle Indian vanities. How they pedal fresh dreams to the Indians and pick up the fruits of their endeavors will be keenly watched not only by the multitude of Indians back at home, but also by the Pakistanis, Chinese and the Russians” (The Dragon spews fire at the Elephant, by M K Bhadrakumar @Asia Times, Oct. 17 2009).

    • Replies: @TT
  432. Sean says:
    @Erebus

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/03/09/a-local-guide-to-the-coronavirus

    Then came 9/11, the anthrax scare, and the creation of a national network of so-called biodefense centers. [Ian[ Lipkin ran the one in New York.

    Talking about researchers in Wuhan Ian Lipkin said. “On December 31st, researchers there identified it as a coronavirus but said, ‘It’s not highly transmissible’”. Two previous novel coronaviruses had arisen SARS and MERS which have mortality around 10%, but very limited transmissibility; the Chinese appeared to have assumed COVID-19 was the same. As Lipkin (advisor on the film Contagion) said about the misleading information that China provided to him and other international experts including the WHO, we will never find out what the Chinese knew and when.

    As late as the the 24th of January, Doctor Fauci gave a briefing for senators in which he said there was very little danger to the US from the Wuhan disease. Later that day he repeated that opinion at a press conference.

  433. Parfois1 says:
    @d dan

    China knew NASA wanted to record the video of the dust plume, and “accidentally” informed NASA just in time when its satellite orbit adjustment missed the landing.

    Thanks for that info, Please forgive my naivety or ignorance about the relevance of the “dust plume” and why NASA wanted to video it. In my understanding the video would not reveal any useful information either than the shape or motion of the dust disturbed by the landing.

    By the way, was the landing deliberately “aborted” or was there a genuine malfunction?

    • Replies: @Iris
  434. vot tak says:

    The israeloamericans are working on a several level strategy which includes back-ups in my opinion. The israeloamericans are trying to cover all the bases at once.

    So they claim China created the virus in a lab, in case it gets out it was lab created, meaning israel or the usa created it in a lab. The israeloamericans claim the virus leaked out of the Wuhan lab in case evidence is found that israeloamerica deliberately planted the virus in Wuhan or it spread from a source in the usa through some other vector. The israeloamericans claim China mislead the world about the virus so people wont notice the reality that China has successfully thwarted the virus, while trump & co. have continued making it worse. The claptrap about China under reporting victims is a variation of the latter tactic. And so on.

    Is what is being reported in the following article “damage control”?

    Neither ‘lab’ nor ‘wet market’? Covid-19 outbreak started months EARLIER and NOT in Wuhan, ongoing Cambridge study indicates

    https://www.rt.com/news/486194-study-coronavirus-southern-china/

    Another vector in the israeloamerican preemptive strategy? Now that research is showing the virus may have been infecting people earlier and neither a market in Wuhan, or even Wuhan itself, may be where it originated?

    With regard to western response to the pandemic, especially american, the delay in israel’s trump colonial regime’s containment response to the virus tells me they deliberately wanted the virus to spread across the country and cause the ruckus it is now causing. The question is why israel had them do this.*

    * Compare the israeli response, IE: strong proactive containment strategy, to the weak responses in most zionazi colonies. It is clear there is an actual strategy underlying this difference. And it entails more than israel being sacrosanct.

    • Replies: @Alfred
  435. Parfois1 says:
    @denk

    Your list of events materially connected to the US mindset and animus towards China are some of the clues pointing to US guilt. By comparison, you’ll be hard-pressed to come up with a single instance of an event of hostility by China to accuse it of aggression vis-a-vis the US or any other country. In other words: the US openly declares China as the enemy and China does not reciprocate – although they are aware of being in the crosshairs. Besides the historic record speaks volumes of numerous US aggressions against China from the Opium Wars to the current economic and military provocations. On that score, there is not a single bellicose incident by China against the US.

    When the question is asked, who is the agressor state?

    If one looks at the precedent use of biological or chemical warfare, one can go as far as the wars of occupation against the original inhabitants of America to ground the accusation of using those means against defenceless peoples. At the beginning of last century they introduced the Spanish Flu to the battlefields of WWI and they did it again in WWII (the only country to have deployed nerve gas to Europe, something that even evil Churchill refrained from). After incinerating the Japanese cities (and also Dresden) the US liberally sprayed several countries (Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia) with chemical weapons, some of which eventually fell on China itself.

    More recently, and also more germane and closely related to the current CV-19 outbreak, let’s remember what Johns Hopkins University and Fort Detrick were up to in 2001 as a prelude and prologue to the World Trade Centre demolition job.

    Prof. Graeme McQueen’s “2001 Anthrax Deception” reveals the biological warfare simulation game (similar to “Event 201”) titled “Dark Winter” conducted by the JHU at Andrews Air Force Base which resembled the actual anthrax attacks later on. Not only that, “Dark Winter” proposed the responses that were later applied after the demolition. After accusing the “hijackers” and Iraq as the perpetrators of the attacks (of course with no grounds whatsoever) they also falsely pinned the blame on Bruce Ivins, a scientist doing research on anthrax at Fort Detrick, who later “committed suicide”.

    There are many similarities and coincidences between the events in 2001 and 2020, particularly the consequential after-effects: then to initiate the War on Terror (via Afghanistan and Iraq) and curtail civil liberties, now to declare War on … (via China) and further curtail civil liberties.

    • Replies: @denk
  436. denk says:
    @thetruth

    Its the same [[[mofo]]] who did…

    Mh370

    Tibet destabilisation,

    Xinjiang terrorism,

    HK mayhem,

    TAM,

    iNDON genocide on ethnic Chinese 1965

    [[[sobs]]] failed to incite a global jihad against Chinese, they’r upping the ante now, a global genocide .
    Im talking about [[[CIA/MI5]]] BTW.

  437. Vidi says:
    @antibeast

    Whether T-Bills are serially numbered is irrelevant because they’re bearer notes similar to currency.

    There must still be a central registry for who owns which Treasury bill. Otherwise there would be false claimants: people who lie about owning a T-bill that they have sold.

    For example, suppose China bought T-Bill number ZZZ from Chad. In this electronic age, I expect Chad to tell the registry that it has sold ZZZ, and China to signal that it has bought ZZZ.

    Without the registry, what’s to keep Chad from claiming that it still owned ZZZ? Even if serials were huge numbers and difficult to fake, the fact is that Chad used to own ZZZ, undoubtedly had a record of the serial number, and could produce it as a “proof” that it still owned ZZZ. China would be robbed by Chad.

    (I have nothing against Chad; I’m just using the country as an example.)

    No, there would have to be a central registry or database of the Treasury bills owned by China. So as Erebus noted, the US could simply declare these specific T-bills null and void, without affecting the others.

    Of course, if the US stole China’s trillion dollars, it would lose the world’s trust, and countries everywhere would rush to dump their dollar holdings. This would kill the dollar as the world’s favorite reserve, and the US would suffer immensely. So I doubt the Amercans would steal the US dollars owned by China.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  438. denk says:
    @Parfois1

    Well said.

    When the [[[assholes]]] in Washington cesspool bleats about China’s ‘threat’,
    its par for the course, after all, what’s an asshole supposed to do, they keep crapping shits all over thats what.

    But when so many murkkans come here to parrot that craps, it makes my blood boils,
    is the USA land of the shitheads ???

    This is no laughing matter.
    Even before Wuhan caper, seventy % murkkans believed China is a threat, what do you think of the current perception ?

    [hint]
    Lots of abuses , assaults on Chinese already happening, vast majority of murriakkans followed their leader, demanding reparation from China !

    The [[[mofo]]] can declare their global Chinese exclusion act mission accomplished.

  439. Jiminy says:

    Looking at the news report now shows Trump blaming WHO for most of his troubles, with the Chinese now saying how the WHO is right in blaming nature for this virus. So it appears that there is now a new narrative forming. I also wonder if Trumps boys were upset that osama is no longer around as he would have made a great scapegoat for all of this. The Easter period would have been a good time to see him resurrected. When reading the information about the e- vaping incidents, you must wonder if this wasn’t the canary in the coal mine. Nowhere else in the world did it happen and yet anyone, anywhere can obtain the ingredients virtually overnight via the Internet. And it seems that the symptoms are so much similar to those of Maryland flu.

  440. Erebus says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    You have been fantasizing wishfully about the strong likelihood of an intentional release of an engineered bioweapon, by US operatives, onto the Chinese population…

    Let me send that back to you, suitably rephrased so as to more closely resemble reality…

    You have been fantasizing wishfully that I’m arguing for the strong likelihood of an intentional release of an engineered bioweapon, by US operatives, onto the Chinese population… but I’m not.

    The reason I’m not is that I consider the probability of an intentional, State-directed release as infinitesimally small. In the case of the US, it would mean being put on the agenda for consideration by the NSC, and duly approved. Echoing Dr. Pekova “I don’t want to imagine that”. Even less can I imagine such an item on the Standing Committee’s agenda. In the latter case deciding to release it within their own country.

    Intentional release by rogue ideologues within a State’s security apparatus, or within its military lab network, otoh are much higher probability, and the greater the percentage that a State’s security apparatus has been “outsourced” to private interests, the greater the probability. An accidental release from any lab doing bio-work is inevitable given a long enough timeline, so escape from a hi-security lab working on Corona viruses remains the most likely scenario.

    Given the arguments we’ve heard from both sides of the natural vs artificial divide, it’s hard not to notice that the Artificial side marshals results from genetic and epidemiological studies, while the Natural side depends on what amounts to special pleading.

    Ergo, I view the hi-return question to be between accidental release vs intentional release by a non-State directed actor from a hi-level lab, and secondarily which of the world’s many BSL-3 & 4 labs the virus sprang from.

    The US has by far the largest number of such labs operating both in the US and abroad, and its labs’ safety record is both bad and secret. When USA Today requested documentation of incidents in “select agent” laboratories that warranted enforcement action, it received an almost 100% redacted reply, along with a letter that said that’s as good as it gets.

    “Select agent” is govt-speak for 65 specially regulated pathogens that can be used as bioweapons. Laboratories operating as part of the Federal Select Agent Program are secret – including their number, names, locations, activities and safety record. They include Govt, private and university laboratories. And that’s just the labs located in the continental US. Who knows what’s going on in the Pentagon and USG bio-labs that dot the planet.

    Given the above, it is certainly not less statistically likely that any SARS-2 escape would be associated with a US Lab rather than one of the vastly smaller number of Chinese labs.

    In sum…
    Unfortunately, your fantasies are not only misplaced, they’ve taken you across the line that separates rational disagreement from disruptive trolling.

    • Replies: @Been_there_done_that
  441. @Iris

    Despite mid-November warnings* from US intelligence, China, and the WHO, NATO nations did nothing to prepare for the Covid-19 epidemic.  They were unanimous in their inaction. 

    When they took action, they did so heterogeneously–as we see from their disparate results.

    Given that those nations have the best public health programs on earth, what caused their inaction? 

    Was it, “Expect a Coronavirus outbreak in China next month but don’t worry, it’s only lethal for ethnic Chinese”? 

    Did the US release an attenuated ‘A’ strain domestically in September via an ‘accidental’ leak at Ft. Detrick? That’s a perfect cover story if their plot was later discovered. 

    Cambridge’s Peter Forster found**, “Variant A…is described as the root of the outbreak. Mutated versions of A were seen in Americans reported to have lived in Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the US and Australia. The A and C types are found in significant proportions outside East Asia, that is, in Europeans and Americans. In contrast, the B type is the most common type in East Asia, and its ancestral genome appears not to have spread outside East Asia without first mutating into derived B types, pointing to founder effects or immunological or environmental resistance against this type outside Asia.

    _____________________________

    *”https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-alerted-israel-nato-to-disease-outbreak-in-china-in-november-report/

    **https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117

    • Replies: @Iris
    , @Iris
  442. Erebus says:
    @antibeast

    The PBoC and the US Treasury came to that agreement at the PBoC’s insistence during the GFC of a decade ago.

    I will believe you if you can provide a link proving your statement above.

    A few minutes on Google, and voilà!

    NEW YORK (Reuters) – China can now bypass Wall Street when buying U.S. government debt and go straight to the U.S. Treasury, in what is the Treasury’s first-ever direct relationship with a foreign government, according to documents viewed by Reuters.

    At the time, there was a lot of heated discussion about what it all meant. IMHO, it meant little beyond the two parties’ mutual wish to keep China’s moves in the Treasury market more discrete.

    Vidi addressed the serialization issue adequately, so I need not add anything. Treasuries are serialized, and their movement in the Treasury market is tracked and registered. The UST Dept can’t afford to [a] redeem illicitly gotten paper, or [b] allow disputes between conflicting owners, or [c] allow an enemy state to accumulate a strategically dangerous stockpile on the sly.

    Cash yes, Treasury paper, no. If you steal a box of cash (which is really just a bearer bond), unless the serial numbers have been registered with police/insurance co and the registered owner surfaces, it’s yours. Not so with Treasuries. The Treasury Dept knows who owns every one of them.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  443. @denk

    IM stILL waiting for your answer ….

    My challenge was for anyone to try pointing out something I had asserted here that has been conclusively debunked, since I am confident there have been no such incidences, not to find instances of unanswered “questions”.

    I did not respond to your rant because I thought it was too infantile, basically amounting to a reflection of your muddled opinion, formulated as a rhetorical question. You were just throwing out a few supposed “premises” to support your belief that the viral release must surely have been intentional and coordinated by the US.

    Bill Gates has regularly been warning about viral outbreaks for many years already, so why should yet another simulation exercise deserve any special significance merely because it occurred a few weeks prior to the fateful viral release?

    China has plenty of big cities that serve as rail and flight hubs. Wuhan is not even among the top five most populated cities in the country. Why should that have any special significance?

    The period of peak migration began during the end of January. So your premise must then be that the intent was to curtail people’s migration (screw up their holiday plans), but the opposite would be more logical if the intent were nefarious, namely to release the virus much later, so that the period of peak migration would serve as a means for people to spread the virus unwittingly throughout the country, from which many new locations the virus would then evolve, instead of primarily in Wuhan. Even then, this would only have made sense, from a devious perspective, if this were a crafty bio-weapon that could only affect ethnic Han Chinese.

    Outbreaks of bird flu and swine flu you mentioned from a previous year and subsequent ones merely demonstrate that viral outbreaks occur every now and then. Other regions of the world regularly get plagued by swarms of locusts. Who do you want to blame that on? Maybe “climate change”? [Laughing]

    Initiating biological warfare against the world, including one’s own society, cannot enhance the terms of ongoing trade disputes, which can more effectively be conducted on their own terms.

    When you observe and compare the effects that the release of the virus has had on economies and societies across the world, while maintaining your persisting premise that it was done intentionally, then the answer to the question “cui bono?” yields the result that China has come out better than Europe and the USA economically. And Taiwan has come out ahead most of all, relative to all the rest, so maybe you should just start blaming Taiwanese agents for the pandemic.

    Your accumulated tidbits of information do not significantly support your conspiratorial supposition and cannot compete with the high plausibility of an accidental release from a lab in Wuhan as an explanation. Why do you have such a problem to simply acknowledge this?

    • Replies: @denk
  444. antibeast says:
    @Vidi

    There is no central registry of T-bills even though the US Treasury conducts annual surveys from foreign Central Banks on how much T-bills they hold. And nobody tracks these T-bills except maybe the primary dealers who buy the initial issuance of T-bills at auction and sell them in secondary markets all over the world. The PBoC then buys the T-bills from secondary markets. Those T-bills are bearer instruments with no registered buyers/sellers except maybe for primary dealers as noted above. The only way for the US government to “cancel” its public debt to foreign creditors such as China is to default on its Treasuries. By the way, it’s not hard for foreign creditors such as China to sell its US T-bills in secondary markets. That happens all the time.

    • Replies: @Vidi
  445. antibeast says:
    @Erebus

    So the US Treasury allows the PBoC to buy T-bills direct but the PBoC can still buy or sell T-bills from/to the secondary market.

    Maybe the US Treasury keeps a record of T-bills sold on the primary market. But I don’t think there is a central registry of T-bills after they’re sold in the secondary market.

  446. Ber says:
    @TT

    One needs to guard against looking down against the next fellow, not necessarily Indians only. One would not like some “superior” others looking down on oneself either. Therefore one needs to also guard against being too chauvinistic.

    This is not a criticism against anyone.

  447. TT says:
    @Seraphim

    Thks for sharing. Indeed the anglosaxons knew the elephant goading trick well.

    Trumps has declared India as developed nation to Indians’ ectasy. Even it means US will remove all the trade concession India enjoyed, no complaint. Whereas China is complaining on a similar move that its still a developing nation by per capital GDP basis.

    Here’s a typical Indian bragging of India superpower status in many media like Quora.

    BJP MP, Subramanian Swamy
    13 Nov 2012
    By next Deepavali we patriots will have much to celebrate. By 2020 India would have overtaken China, and economically challenge US. Jai Hind

    “I would like to add that the founding fathers of the Indian Union always had the design of the ‘Indian nation’ in mind! ❞ This Bharat(Land of knowledge/light) covered as wide as its army & people can access.

    Nehru said: ” Let India be strong and be able to assume the leadership of Asia, which is its (birth) right”( P.D.Saggi, Life & Works of Vallabhbhai Patel, Bombay n.d.p.89). On 7 November 1950, Patel wrote to Nehru: “the undefined state of the frontier (in the north and north-east) and the existence on our side of the population with its affinities to Tibetans or Chinese have all the elements of potential trouble between China and ourselves…Our northern or north-eastern approaches consist of Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim, Darjeeling(area) and tribal areas in Assam…The people inhabiting these portions have no established loyalty or devotion to India”.

    So he proposed that “political and administrative steps” should be taken “to strengthen our northern and north-eastern frontiers. This would include the whole of the border, i.e., Nepal, Bhutan, Sikkim, Darjeeling and the tribal territory in Assam”(Durga Das,ed. Sardar Patel’s Correspondence, vol.X,pp.337-8,340).

    Toeing in the line of Nehru that small nationalities are bound to be doomed to pave the way for the creation of the ‘Indian nation’, Patel advocated the establishment of Indian domination over all these countries and regions in the north and the north-east.

    Did not above famous quote of India founding fathers reveal India had long harbouring ambitious to be Asia leader as its birth right, determined to invade all small neighbours since founded, esp all the Chinese ethnic borderlands of China that it deemed will not be loyal to brown Indians?

    “India had previously been lecturing the world about the virtues of nonviolence, President Kennedy told the Indian ambassador to the US, “You spend the last fifteen years preaching morality to us, and then you go ahead and act the way any normal country would behave… People are saying, the preacher has been caught coming out of the brothel.”[77]

    India is acting like its British master, has invaded every single neighbors and occupied every land within its reach since gaining independent 1947. Its still actively doing so. But the West has been strangely silence if not supportive.
    https://www.quora.com/Did-Indians-invade-or-rule-any-country-in-the-past/answer/Thomas-Edward-71

    In today’s world, Weapon of Mass Destruction is no longer the deadliest weapon to invade another nation or dominate the world, it’s
    Weapons of Mass Migration: Are You a Target of India?

    https://www.quora.com/Will-Indians-dominate-the-world/answer/Thomas-Edward-71

    When these India huge population of 1380M hit the road towards your country, you can understand how this lethal deadliest weapon work.

  448. @Erebus

    Given the above, it is certainly not less statistically likely that any SARS-2 escape would be associated with a US Lab rather than one of the vastly smaller number of Chinese labs.

    I detect a modification of your earlier implied position, which is a positive step forward. Based on your latest clarification, in which you now attribute a very low probability (“infinitesimally small“) to an intentional governmentally directed release by US agents, which had heretofore been the most trendy explanation on this site for weeks, also abetted by Ron Unz, the US presence at the Wuhan Military Games must then take on a less important role in the causation narrative, and indeed you did not allude to that event this time.

    Your basic statistical assessment, as cited above, is correct, as far as it goes, which has a ceteris paribus proviso, but upon closer examination that key qualification is not fulfilled. What needs to be taken into consideration is the fact that at the Wuhan level-4 lab researchers had been focusing on all those aspects pertaining to the type of virus that was released.

    Wuhan was where the top experts in this specialized domain were working, which would explain why they received funding from the US government. Incidentally, it was extremely irresponsible for that kind of risky research to have been carried out in such a large city; a desert setting in the middle of nowhere would have been a more suitable location.

    We are not primarily trying to find out where an earlier and more simple variant (“prototype”) of the deadly virus, that has caused the global pandemic, might have come from, but instead where the fully engineered chimeric virus, including GP-120 insertions and other enhancements, to remain in the air for a longer time (likely a non-spherical shape to attain a lower density), originated from – accidentally, no doubt.

    If all the level-4 biological labs in the US had been engineering that same deadly virus, then it is indeed statistically more likely that it would have accidentally escaped in the US, but then it would also not likely have been possible for its rapid spread into the surrounding population to have been concealed.

    • Replies: @antibeast
    , @annamaria
  449. Ber says:

    Explosive video exposing fake Pandemic and Vaccines

  450. antibeast says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    Wuhan was where the top experts in this specialized domain were working, which would explain why they received funding from the US government. Incidentally, it was extremely irresponsible for that kind of risky research to have been carried out in such a large city; a desert setting in the middle of nowhere would have been a more suitable location.

    That’s exactly why the US government shut down the Ft. Detrick lab.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/05/health/germs-fort-detrick-biohazard.html

    We are not primarily trying to find out where an earlier and more simple variant (“prototype”) of the deadly virus, that has caused the global pandemic, might have come from, but instead where the fully engineered chimeric virus, including GP-120 insertions and other enhancements, to remain in the air for a longer time (likely a non-spherical shape to attain a lower density), originated from – accidentally, no doubt.

    If there had been an accidental release of the Covid-19 virus from the Wuhan Lab, then the viral spread to the surrounding population would have been detected not only by Chinese authorities but also by the US Consulate in Wuhan. As it were, the first Covid-19 infections were detected in the Wuhan Wet Market which is nowhere near the Wuhan Lab. That’s where Chinese researchers assumed to be the first animal-to-human transmission of Covid-19.

    If all the level-4 biological labs in the US had been engineering that same deadly virus, then it is indeed statistically more likely that it would have accidentally escaped in the US, but then it would also not likely have been possible for its rapid spread into the surrounding population to have been concealed.

    Same reason why the Wuhan Lab could not be the source of the viral outbreak as US intelligence officials on the ground in Wuhan have already publicly admitted that they found no evidence that the viral outbreak occurred in or near the Wuhan Lab.

  451. denk says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    your rant because I thought it was too infantile, basically amounting to a reflection of your muddled opinion, formulated as a rhetorical

    You chided people on not using Con prob, in fact gave a lecture on it.

    comment 315
    https://www.unz.com/pgiraldi/who-made-coronavirus-was-it-the-u-s-israel-or-china-itself
    [link url not working , comments hidden]

    But When I follow your advice, its ….
    rhetorical, infantile and muddled ?

    • Replies: @Been_there_done_that
  452. …the first Covid-19 infections were detected in the Wuhan Wet Market which is nowhere near the Wuhan Lab.

    Where first infections were detected would have been in a hospital, due to patients having symptoms severe enough to have checked in and the availability of testing and diagnostic equipment, plus examinations by pulmonary specialists.

    There are actually two Wuhan labs; the Institute of Virology and the Center for Disease Control, the latter being essentially on the same block (280 meters away from) the Wet Market.

    Same reason why the Wuhan Lab could not be the source of the viral outbreak as US intelligence officials on the ground in Wuhan have already publicly admitted that they found no evidence that the viral outbreak occurred in or near the Wuhan Lab.

    This statement is a combination of faulty logic, in conjunction with unsourced and irrelevant information:

    First, what is your source for this and when did they purportedly admit this? Second, were they even looking for evidence? Third, what evidence should they have found – a voluntary confession? Fourth, even if they had investigated, how likely is it they would have found any evidence if there had been effort to conceal or destroy it? Fifth, do you seriously believe that US intelligence officials have never lied in their official capacity? Sixth (lastly), you cannot conclude that one of the labs could not have been the source of the outbreak simply because US intelligence officials publicly reported they found no evidence.

    In an earlier post farther above I had already cited the comments that appeared in the March Scientific American about the “Bat Woman” who worked at one of the labs having had sleepless nights because she wasn’t sure that the virus had been released from there, thus acknowledging the possibility, which in turn could only have been the case if they were actually also working at that time on exactly those kinds of viruses, with the same infectious symptoms, among humans, that had been reported.

    • Replies: @antibeast
  453. @denk

    You chided people on not using Con prob…

    The big difference is that the three conditional probabilities I cited in that particular post were all directly related to each other (specifically in the context of the Wuhan lab) whereas your probabilities were associated with independent (essentially random and unconnected) events. You have misapplied what I was referring to.

    • Replies: @denk
  454. denk says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    The big difference is that my CP was conditional on known facts.

    YOur CP was based on your imagination, or
    probable event at best.

    Example./

    what is the probability that one of these workers might have felt sorry for those (infected) animals and covertly sold them at the nearby open market, a block away (<280 meters air distance), where these lab animals were subsequently processed to some soup or other dish at a restaurant?

    This is what I call…
    Rhetoric, muddled….perhaps not infantile yet !

    • Replies: @Been_there_done_that
  455. Vidi says:
    @antibeast

    There is no central registry of T-bills

    That makes no sense. What keeps me from buying a Treasury bill, copying it exactly, selling the original, and claiming that I still own the bill (and producing the perfect copy as “proof” of ownership)?

    There would be huge incentive to do just that, as T-bills are valuable. What prevents it?

    • Replies: @Erebus
  456. annamaria says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    “If all the level-4 biological labs in the US had been engineering that same deadly virus, then it is indeed statistically more likely that it would have accidentally escaped in the US, but then…”
    — It did. https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/filqx9/is_it_possible_that_vaping_deaths_were_actually/
    And not the first time.

    There are documented ‘accidental escapes’ of the deadly bio-products concocted by the US alchemists on the territories of foreign countries. The ZUSA has no scruples. What would you expect from the consummate murderers like Cheney and M. Albright? http://dilyana.bg/the-pentagon-bio-weapons/

    You pretend that there was no presentation by Powell, and other yellow cake inventions, that led to the mass slaughter of civilian populations, including tens of thousands of children of all ages, in the Middle East. The ‘exceptional nation’ has been also practicing the use of depleted uranium with gusto, whether in the former Yugoslavia or Falluja. Do you know what depleted uranium does to the unborn? — Do some googling.

    When has China attacked any foreign country recently?– Only specialists would answer at once.
    When has the US attacked a foreign country recently? The immediate answer would be, “Which one?”
    The ZUSA empire is totally amoral. The reputation is well deserved.

    • Agree: Ber, denk
    • Thanks: Iris
    • Replies: @Been_there_done_that
  457. @denk

    “The big difference is that my CP was conditional on known facts.

    Obviously you are confused because you are mixing up the conjectural probability with its associated condition. In the example you cited, from my post more than a month ago (a worker possibly feeling sorry for a lab animal and selling it on the market), the conditions were the following:

    Assuming that the lab in Wuhan would have also employed workers, such as secretaries or business coordinators, without PhD degrees and subsequent specializations in coronavirus enhancements (gain of function), and assuming that certain types of animals were being used in the experimental testing process to observe the effects of viruses…

    This was not an imaginary proposition because it is known that animals were used there and it was reasonably assumed that not everyone who worked at the huge facility had a PhD degree.

    It is nearly irrelevant whether your cited “condition” was a known fact (for instance, Wuhan is a transportation hub) if it did not more directly link, in a causal manner, to your conjectural probability of an intentional release of the virus by US state actors. You might as well have also stated something like “Given that it is sometimes windy in Wuhan…” to allude to an enhanced viral spread under windy conditions.

    Let me rephrase one of your conjectural probabilities relating to the recent “201” exercise sponsored by Bill Gates in October as a condition that you mentioned:

    Given that the result of the exercise sponsored by Bill Gates, the World Economic Forum, and Johns Hopkins University in October 2019 concluded that the vast majority of counties were unprepared to adequately deal with a global pandemic, what is the probability that US state actors would nonetheless have intentionally initiated a viral attack in China just a few weeks later (perhaps at the Wuhan Military Games as a cover) even though the progression of the outbreak could eventually impact the United States population and economy, which was known to not be prepared to deal with it?

    Most sane people would conclude that this presumptive conditional probability alone is virtually zero, yet you appear to suggest that the combination makes it more likely than would have otherwise been the case by itself (also nearly zero, as I have suggested), or else you wouldn’t have bothered to mention this basically unconnected event as a condition that warranted suspicion. So instead of having suggested an enhanced probability of an already low probability event, upon closer scrutiny the resulting probability is actually even further diminished, which takes us into the realm of fantasy.

    It was exactly because you make no sense that I didn’t bother to respond to your rant, but in the meantime you have effectively begged me, for the fourth time, to explicitly expose your nonsensical thinking.

    • Replies: @denk
    , @Seraphim
    , @denk
  458. @annamaria

    When has China attacked any foreign country recently?– Only specialists would answer at once.
    When has the US attacked a foreign country recently? The immediate answer would be, “Which one?”

    Your implicit argument appears to be:

    Since the US government acts aggressively and amorally in various ways toward other countries, it must therefore surely also be responsible for this particular viral attack on China and the rest of the world – including itself. Any close analysis of the precise circumstances surrounding the current pandemic is therefore unnecessary.

    Many commentators here have conveyed this basic attitude, so you likely feel emboldened to assert it too, because no proof is necessary anyway. Yet you ignore that biological attacks are different from rhetorical attacks or those using military power, financial leverage, or trade conditions.

    But guess what? China is no angel, in case you thought so. The country has waged a military war against Vietnam, regularly threatens Taiwan, is engaging in territorial intimidation at sea agains the Philippines, steals and expropriates intellectual property from the United States, Germany, and Japan, among others, and unduly insinuates itself in the affairs of Hong Kong during its ongoing transition period. It also keeps a tight and oppressive grip on its own population, suppresses the desires for independence of the Tibetan people, and treats other minority groups poorly.

    Instead of examining the details of the matter, you are just running on auto-pilot, which is not a useful contribution to the discussion. You have no proof that any biological lab in the US was engineering exactly that same deadly virus now causing the pandemic.

    • Troll: Erebus
  459. Iris says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    You have no proof that any biological lab in the US was engineering exactly that same deadly virus now causing the pandemic.

    What is proven is that the only country we know of to have experienced the Covid-19 epidemic at least as early as China did, if not earlier, is the USA. The ancestor A strain constituting the bulk of the infection in the US West Coast would be difficult to explain otherwise.

    So the only thing the US has to do to show respect to the rest of nations is to come clean, as China did, and let the CDC provide details about suspected Covid-19 cases in America.

    These details are fundamental to identify the genetic path the virus took to adapt and infect humans. The US authorities refusing to collaborate with such indispensable information can only blame themselves for looking a guilty party.

    • Agree: acementhead
    • Replies: @Been_there_done_that
  460. Erebus says:
    @Vidi

    That makes no sense.

    Of course it doesn’t. antibeast is just a(nother) poser. He was 100% certain that the PBoC was buying through a primary dealer. When shown he was 100% wrong, he threw up a fog about “secondary markets”.

    FWIW, Treasury bills are just like cars. The serial number goes into a registry when it’s first licensed, and each transaction is recorded and the new owner registered as the car goes through its chain of owners until its serial no is retired when it’s scrapped.

    >$500B worth of transactions are done daily in the Treasury markets. How many aircraft full of bearer bonds would have to be circling the planet picking up paper from the seller and delivering it to its new owner in settlement? The notion is simply ridiculous. In a nutshell, the transaction takes place in a database and seller’s name is replaced by the buyer’s against a series of serial nos.

    FWIW, I do recall reading that the US Treasury did issue Bearer Bonds in the 1800s, and possibly into the early 20thC.

    • Replies: @antibeast
    , @Iris
  461. Iris says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    its ancestral genome appears not to have spread outside East Asia without first mutating into derived B types, pointing to founder effects or immunological or environmental resistance against this type outside Asia.

    That was one of the most interesting points in the Cambridge study.

    The results pointed at the pace of mutation of the B Strain being relatively slow within East Asia, compared to a much faster pace of mutation when contaminating individuals in Europe.

    There are two possible reasons for this noted change in the B Strain pace of mutation.

    One could be that the sub-strain that moved out of Asia did so after undergoing a “founder effect”, a genetic mutation resulting in a small population losing part of the intra-group genetic diversity, and hence establishing itself as a distinct subgroup which then would have gone to infect Europe.

    The other possibility is that, once out of Asia, the virus had to adapt faster and more frequently because the human and environmental context was not so favourable to its survival. This is another way of saying that the East Asian human and environmental material was, conversely, very suitable and adapted for the original B Strain virus to thrive.

    The study’s author hints that the second possibility seems probable.
    The first one would require, not only to identify a hypothetical founder event, but also one that would explain why the resulting B Strain sub-group did not prosper in East Asia.

    This is why the second option seems more likely.

  462. Iris says:
    @Parfois1

    relevance of the “dust plume” and why NASA wanted to video it

    I did some research. Apparently, the regolith, the dust resulting from millions of years of astral collisions and subsequent dustification at the surface of the Moon, presents a much thicker layer on the “dark” side on the Moon.

    That far side had never been explored until China sent a first probe last year.
    The dust plume gives an indication of the thickness of lunar dust layer, which is a problem because it so very fine that it obstructs and hinders sensors and probes. So assessing the dust plume helps design future exploration instrumentation. Best.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=72&v=-_dAqq7aLCw&feature=emb_logo

    • Replies: @Parfois1
  463. antibeast says:
    @Erebus

    Of course it doesn’t. antibeast is just a(nother) poser. He was 100% certain that the PBoC was buying through a primary dealer. When shown he was 100% wrong, he threw up a fog about “secondary markets”.

    You guys don’t know much about how capital markets work. The primary dealers buy the T-bills at auction from the US Treasury, after which the T-bills are sold by the primary dealers to the secondary markets. The PBoC can buy T-bills either from the primary dealers or from the secondary market, or directly from the US Treasury as per their special arrangement. (Note: I wasn’t aware of the special arrangement the US Treasury has with the PBoC which no other Central Banks has. This could be because the PBoC was buying lots of T-bills in the past but that’s no longer the case today.)

    FWIW, Treasury bills are just like cars. The serial number goes into a registry when it’s first licensed, and each transaction is recorded and the new owner registered as the car goes through its chain of owners until its serial no is retired when it’s scrapped.

    Sure, just like stocks and bonds.

    >$500B worth of transactions are done daily in the Treasury markets. How many aircraft full of bearer bonds would have to be circling the planet picking up paper from the seller and delivering it to its new owner in settlement? The notion is simply ridiculous. In a nutshell, the transaction takes place in a database and seller’s name is replaced by the buyer’s against a series of serial nos.

    When I said “bearer instruments”, I didn’t imply that it is still done in paper form. In the past, that was how it was done but nowadays it’s done in electronic form. But the legal force and effect is still the same,i.e., US T-bills are marketable securities that can bought, sold and traded in secondary markets after being auctioned off by the US Treasury to primary dealers at issuance. The fact that the US Treasury allowed the PBoC to buy direct does not imply that the T-bills cease to be marketable securities.

    FWIW, I do recall reading that the US Treasury did issue Bearer Bonds in the 1800s, and possibly into the early 20thC.

    Whether in paper or electronic form, US T-bills are marketable securities that can be bought, sold and traded in secondary markets. The PBoC can and do buy, sell or trade its T-bills in the secondary market.

    I stand by my earlier conclusion to this whole exercise: the only way for the US Government to cancel its public debt is to default on its T-bills. But that would instantly degrade the credit rating of the US Government which would be reflected in the market value of the T-bills traded in the secondary markets.

    Any more questions?

    • Replies: @Vidi
    , @Erebus
  464. I appreciate your persisting in this investigation.

    One problem is the absence of US samples prior to January 27, the official starting date of the outbreak in America. The CDC’s ‘Don’t test, don’t tell’ policy prior to March 1, coupled with its refusal to share details of its index case, may doom this investigation.

    Forster’s database has expanded and he has a new paper due out soon. No doubt it will be more thoroughly scrutinized than they last one before it is released

    His university (and British media) have supported his work to date. Let’s hope they continue doing so. He has published his contact details, too, which is encouraging.

    According to a comment on the Cambridge website Forster’s article originally read, “mutated versions of ‘A’ were seen in Americans reported to have lived in Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the US and Australia.”

    This was later changed to the currnt “Versions of ‘A’ were seen in Chinese individuals, and Americans reported to have lived in Wuhan, and mutated versions of ‘A’ were found in patients from the USA and Australia.”

    I’m currently trying to understand why the West unanimously did nothing to prepare for Covid–while China did everything.

    • Thanks: Iris
    • Replies: @128
  465. @Been_there_done_that

    We know, beyond any reasonable doubt that the US has launched bio-attacks on China before. See The Report of the International Scientific Commission for the Investigation of the Facts Concerning Bacterial Warfare in Korea and China. Sir Joseph Needham, Lead Author.

    We also know that the US maintains many biological warfare sites around the world and that it has attacked other countries, like Cuba, repeatedly with bioweapons.

    We also know that the US has attacked and threatened China many times, so Annamaria’s assertions are well grounded, even if not proven.

    • Agree: denk
  466. Iris says:
    @Erebus

    Hi Erebus;
    Just a side note. I remember a comment of yours about medical acquaintances who informed you of specific neurological impairments affecting their Covid-19 patients.

    Well, this side of the Covid-19 syndrome has been addressed by a Chinese research article:
    “Neurological Manifestations of Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective case series study”
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.22.20026500v1

    Overall, 36.4 per cent of the patients studied in the paper had neurologic manifestations.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8208417/In-half-severe-cases-COVID-19-affect-brain-nervous-too.html

    • Replies: @Erebus
    , @Godfree Roberts
  467. denk says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    nonsensical thinking.

    There’s this gangster in town who hates your guts for refusing to pay him ‘protection money’
    he has been caught committing arson and other vandalism on your property dozens of times .

    The intimidation intensified in the last two months.
    He has been harassing you, beating up your son, even threatening your life .

    your car tyre got punctured by a nail on Mon,

    ‘shit’

    Somebody broke your windows on Tue,

    ‘What the fuck, ‘

    Your house caught fire on wed,…

    By now any sane people would’ve called the police.
    But you being the resident dumbfuck,

    ‘Shit, just my ass luck’

    hehhehe

    P.S.
    Rhetorical, muddled and infantile.
    Thats the hallmark of your rants.

  468. @Iris

    Even more interesting Montagnier works in China:

    A long-time researcher at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, he currently works as a full-time professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University in China

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luc_Montagnier

  469. annamaria says:
    @Been_there_done_that

    “You have no proof that any biological lab in the US was engineering exactly that same deadly virus now causing the pandemic.”

    — And what is the proof that made you side with the incorrigible warmongers? The US had suffered the mysterious ‘vaping’ epidemic well before China did: January 2019 (US) versus November 2019 (China).

    As for your Jeremiyas “China steals and expropriates intellectual property from the United States,” the Epstein saga has illuminated the massive treasonous activities of certain influential Israel-firsters who robbed American inventors: https://www.mintpressnews.com/mega-group-maxwells-mossad-spy-story-jeffrey-epstein-scandal/261172/
    One only need to take a look at the ethnicity of the best young American mathematicians and physicists to see how funny is the belief in the intellectual inferiority of the Asians: https://alphastar.academy/us-team-wins-1st-place-at-international-math-olympiads/

    https://www.aapt.org/aboutaapt/US-Physics-Team-Travelers-2018.cfm

    • Replies: @Been_there_done_that
  470. Vidi says:
    @antibeast

    You guys don’t know much about how capital markets work. The primary dealers buy the T-bills at auction from the US Treasury, after which the T-bills are sold by the primary dealers to the secondary markets.

    Yawn. I notice that you avoided my question: without a central registry for Treasury bills, how is serious misbehavior prevented?

    An example of a serious misbehavior: Suppose a crook buys a T-bill (whether from a primary or secondary market, or in paper or electronic form, it doesn’t matter). Then he makes an exact copy of it. He sells the original. Later, he can claim that he still owns the bill, and can even produce the perfect copy as “proof” of ownership.

    Without a central registry that tracks owners, how does the financial system stop a crook like that? As I said, the crook will have huge incentive to cheat: T-bills are valuable.

    Some readers may be wondering why all this is relevant, so I repeat what I wrote:

    No, there would have to be a central registry or database of the Treasury bills owned by China. So as Erebus noted, the US could simply declare these specific T-bills null and void, without affecting the others.

    Of course, if the US stole China’s trillion dollars, it would lose the world’s trust, and countries everywhere would rush to dump their dollar holdings. This would kill the dollar as the world’s favorite reserve, and the US would suffer immensely. So I doubt the Amercans would steal the US dollars owned by China.

  471. Erebus says:
    @Iris

    Thanks Iris!
    Much appreciated. I’ll forward your links as I’m sure they’ll be of interest.

    My contact has recently been rotated out of the COVID ICU into COVID General Medicine. That’s mgmt’s way of giving them a break as ICU staff are getting burned out but they’re too short-staffed to give anyone time off.

    Numbers are now going down in that institution. In-patients have reduced by ~100, but the remainder are “very, ve