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The optics of the shutdown painted the Democrats in an unfavorable light, as they were accused of being complicit in the crimes associated with illegal immigration. Reports indicated that the number of individuals qualifying as "DREAMers" was significantly higher than previously estimated, complicating the Democrats' position. While mainstream media attempted to place the blame for the shutdown on the Republicans—who control all branches of government—the reality was that a 60-vote threshold in the Senate meant that the Democrats held substantial power in the situation. Ultimately, Schumer's decision to back down highlighted the Democrats' lack of leverage and revealed that the responsibility for the shutdown lay squarely with them.
As the government reopened, the Democrats were left grappling with internal contradictions regarding their narrative. Some Senate Democrats in states that Trump won in the 2016 election distanced themselves from the DACA issue, while others, like Senator Dick Durbin, acknowledged that the shutdown was indeed about immigration policy. The fervent commitment of the Democratic Party to immigration reform, particularly in favor of maintaining protections for undocumented individuals, was evident but also politically risky. Many in their base viewed the reopening of the government as a betrayal, indicating potential backlash and further confrontations over immigration policy in the future.
Despite the Republican Party's recent success, challenges remain, particularly as the midterm elections approach. The political landscape shows signs of a narrow recovery for Republicans, with polling indicating a decrease in the Democrats' lead in generic party ballots. Economic indicators suggest that the Trump administration's policies might be resonating with voters, as evidenced by optimism regarding the economy. However, the GOP must remain cautious; historical trends suggest losses for the president's party in midterm elections, and recent defeats in special elections highlight vulnerabilities. The commentary suggests that Republicans should continue to embrace immigration patriotism as a foundational aspect of their platform, which, if maintained, could enhance their electoral prospects in 2018 and beyond.
## I. Introduction
A. President Trump's political gain at the start of 2018
1. Democrats' shutdown attempt fails
2. Schumer's strategy backfires
## II. The Democrats' Position
A. Commitment to vote on DACA
1. Unclear implications of the commitment
2. Democrats' limited power without Republican cooperation
B. The optics of the government shutdown
1. Federal responsibility to secure borders
2. Public perception of Democrats favoring illegal immigrants
C. The existence of “DREAMers”
1. New estimates reveal a larger population than previously thought
## III. Republican Counteroffensive
A. Trump and GOP’s aggressive stance on immigration
1. Accusations of Democratic complicity in crimes by illegals
B. Media portrayal of the shutdown
1. Mainstream media blaming Republicans
2. The necessity of 60 Senate votes for funding bills
## IV. Democrats' Internal Confusion
A. Schumer's retreat and its implications
1. Democrats acknowledging their role in the shutdown
B. Diverging narratives among Democrats
1. Senators in red states downplaying DACA’s importance
2. Durbin’s admission of the shutdown being about DACA
## V. The Democrats' Commitment to Immigration
A. The fixation on protecting “DREAMers”
1. DACA protections not expiring soon
2. Base-driven decision-making leading to political miscalculations
B. Critique of Democrats’ focus
1. The absurdity of prioritizing foreign nationals over American citizens
## VI. Ongoing Investigations and Political Climate
A. Investigation into “Russian collusion”
1. Deletion of key FBI texts raising concerns
2. Potential abuses of power by the Obama Administration
B. Republican vulnerabilities
1. Significant challenges leading up to midterm elections
2. Historical trends of the president’s party losing seats
## VII. Shifting Political Dynamics
A. Signs of a potential Democratic decline
1. Narrowing advantage in generic ballot polls
2. Recognition of Trump’s economic policies
B. Increasing support for Trump’s tax cuts
C. Corporate leaders acknowledging Trump’s influence
1. Positive remarks from Apple CEO regarding job growth
## VIII. GOP Strategy Moving Forward
A. Shift towards populism in Republican policies
1. Focus on infrastructure and immigration unity
B. Importance of immigration in electoral success
1. Historical evidence of GOP wins when addressing immigration issues
## IX. Conclusion
A. Caution against complacency for immigration patriots
B. Acknowledgment of ongoing political dangers for the GOP
C. Hope for Republicans to maintain focus on immigration issues
1. The potential for a tactical victory in upcoming elections
2. Encouragement to embrace immigration patriotism as a winning strategy
## X. Author's Perspective
A. James Kirkpatrick’s background
B. Call for Republicans to learn from past mistakes and capitalize on current momentum
This outline encapsulates the key points made in the political analysis regarding President Trump's early 2018 political landscape, focusing on immigration issues, party dynamics, and the implications for both parties as they approach upcoming elections.
Schumer's achievement:
–Got a debate on a Dreamer bill McConnell said he'd have anyway
–Exposed lack of popular support for Dems' Dreamer obsession
–Caved on the Wall, which is now part of baseline for new negotiations— Mickey Kaus (@kausmickey) January 22, 2018
President Donald Trump starts 2018 with a political win, as Chuck Schumer’s gambit to shut down the government to defend illegal aliens has collapsed [Schumer: We’re reopening government with commitment to vote on DACA if deal isn’t reached by February 8th, by Ian Hanchett, Breitbart, January 22, 2018]. The Democrats did win a supposed “commitment” for an up and down vote on DACA in early February, but it is unclear what that actually means in practice. Besides, the Democrats can’t do much if the GOP doesn’t give them the kind of vote they want: the threat of a government shutdown has now been exposed as hollow.
The optics of the showdown were terrible for the Democrats. Securing the border is one of the few things the federal government is actually supposed to do. It’s was therefore immensely clarifying that the Democrat Party shut down the government to ensure that illegal immigrants are allowed to remain in the U.S. in defiance of American laws.
Indeed, the Democrats chose this hill to die on even as new reports reveal there are millions more so-called “DREAMers” squatting in our country than was commonly believed. [There are 3.6 M ‘DREAMers’ – a number far greater than commonly known, by Alan Gomez, USA Today, January 18, 2018]
Far from cucking, President Trump and the Republicans actually went on the offensive against the Democrats on the immigration issue, accusing them (accurately) of being “complicit” in crimes committed by illegals.
Of course, the Main Stream Media did its best to blame the government shutdown on the Republicans, claiming that the GOP was responsible because it controls every branch of government. But as there needs to be 60 votes in the Senate to pass a funding bill, it was Democrats, not Republicans, who controlled the process. [Government shutdown: Where the senators stand, by Ashley Killough, CNN, January 19, 2018]
The only way the Republicans could have unilaterally ended the shutdown was if they triggered the “nuclear option” and allowed the government to be refunded via a simple majority vote.
Great to see how hard Republicans are fighting for our Military and Safety at the Border. The Dems just want illegal immigrants to pour into our nation unchecked. If stalemate continues, Republicans should go to 51% (Nuclear Option) and vote on real, long term budget, no C.R.’s!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 21, 2018
Perhaps to hold on what little leverage he still had, Schumer caved on Monday, thus implicitly revealing the shutdown was the Democrats’ responsibility the entire time.
Indeed, now that the shutdown is over, the Democrats seem to be plagued by Narrative Confusion. Democrat Senators in red states are claiming the showdown wasn’t even about DACA.
Dem MT Sen Tester: I didn’t vote for this because it’s a bad deal for Montana. It was never about DACA. It’s about making sure a budget goes on for a fiscal year making sure we have money for rural hospitals.
— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) January 22, 2018
But Senator Dick Durbin, whose hatred of the Historic American Nation may be second only to Schumer’s, openly admits the shutdown was about DACA.
Durbin thanks Dem senators for shutting down government over DACA: 'You stuck your necks out and said I'm going to go on record even if it's hard to explain back home.'
— Byron York (@ByronYork) January 22, 2018
What the entire sad spectacle reveals more than anything else: the fanatical commitment of the Democrat Party to replacement immigration. Indeed, even the claim that the government shutdown was needed to “protect DREAMers” doesn’t make any sense, as DACA protections do not expire until March 5, and may even extend beyond that. [The Trump administration is keeping DACA on life support, by Dara Lind, Vox, January 18, 2018]
Like drug dealers high on their own supply, the Democrats were driven into a politically disastrous showdown because of the fanaticism of their base. And their nonwhite clients are already calling the decision to reopen the government a sellout—meaning more blind confrontations ahead. [The Senate sells out Dreamers in deal to end government shutdown, TheGrio, January 22, 2018]
The absurdity of an American political party taking a stance on behalf of the “right” of millions of foreigners to occupy our territory makes the investigation into “Russian collusion” increasingly ludicrous. But even there, Trump is scoring tactical triumphs.
Republicans are outraged at the news key text messages between FBI agent Peter Strzok and Department of Justice attorney Lisa Page were deleted, sharpening suspicions that the entire investigation of Trump was politically motivated. [Lost FBI texts could form basis for motion to dismiss in Trump team fight against Russia probe, by Rachel Stockman and Ronn Blitzer, Law and Crime, January 22, 2018]
There is also a great push to release a mysterious dossier which supposedly shows the Obama Administration improperly using law enforcement resources to spy on domestic political opponents. [Republicans hope to release ‘jaw-dropping’ memo on surveillance abuses, by Barnini Chakraborty, Fox News, January 22, 2018]
Republican strength shouldn’t be overemphasized. There is still a great deal of time before the midterm elections and Republicans should still be worried. The defeat of Roy Moore in Alabama, a recent Democrat victory in a conservative region of Wisconsin, the retirement of many Republican incumbents and the general historical trend of the president’s party losing seats in Congress two years into his term all mean the GOP is fighting an uphill battle. [Democrats flip Wisconsin district that Trump won by 17 points, Associated Press, January 17, 2018]
Still, there are some sighs the “blue tide” may recede and that this moment represents a turning point in President Trump’s political fortunes. The Democrats’ advantage in the generic party ballot had declined from double digits to only five points even before this Republican victory [Poll: Democratic lead narrows on 2018 generic ballot, by Julia Manchester, The Hill, January 21, 2018]. It’s increasingly difficult for the Democrats and the media to pretend the booming economy has nothing to do with President Trump’s policies [Poll: Booming economy lifts Trump, Hispanics, women optimistic, by Paul Bedard, Washington Examiner, January 16, 2018]. The Trump tax cut still doesn’t win majority support, but support is increasing [Poll: Support for Trump tax law increasing, by Naomi Jagoda, The Hill, January 17, 2018].
Even anti-Trump corporate leaders like Apple CEO Tim Cook are giving the president some praise and making enthusiastic announcements bringing jobs to the United States [Apple CEO: Trump Tax Plan ‘Will Result In Job Creation And A Faster Growing Economy, by Lucas Nolan, Breitbart, January 18, 2018]. And with President Trump turning to infrastructure and the Republicans staying united on immigration, the GOP is shifting in a populist direction just in time for campaign season [Leaked document shows White House plan for major rural infrastructure program, by Gabby Morrongiello, Washington Examiner, January 22, 2018].
A great deal of political commentary consists of variations on the theme of “this person’s best political strategy would be to act in accordance with my own ideological preferences.” Yet since President Donald Trump descended that escalator at Trump Tower to overturn the entire American political establishment, it’s impossible for immigration patriots not to believe they have the key to political victory. If you want to win an election as a Republican in 2018, you shouldn’t listen to political consultants, you should read VDARE.com.
When Republicans fight on immigration issues, they win. When they run away from these issues, they lose.
It’s too early to for immigration patriots to rejoice, and the GOP is still in great political danger. But with this tactical victory in the shutdown, it appears Republicans are at least beginning to learn immigration patriotism is a political winner as well as sound policy.
Hopefully, the Stupid Party can stay strong, and not seize defeat from the jaws of victory next month by caving on immigration.
James Kirkpatrick [Email him] is a Beltway veteran and a refugee from Conservatism Inc.
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It will be interesting to see if the Repubs don’t fold over immigration. Recent surveys of blacks show that over 85% are against the Dems on immigration. Furthermore, the true crime statistics of illegal immigration must be forced onto the main stream media.
What most of the Dems don’t understand is that Trump as crazy as he is on some things can operate in chaos. He is used to it. I know people who have worked for Trump and still do; he is a chaotic micromanager. The Dems can’t operate in this chaos and it’s driving them insane.
Long live Trump our savior. Let God bless him.
Instead of the anodyne-sounding REPLACEMENT IMMIGRATION, the German term – recently much in the news – sounds much more sinister and totalitarian, which is only appropriate:
UMVOLKUNG (re-peopling, pronounced OOM FOL KOONG).
Say it: Schumer and the Democrats are the party of UMVOLKUNG.
What a nauseating read. All the quipsters break the news cycle by breaking with reality and claiming the big show is between two thoroughly corrupt wings of a whorehouse dedicated to pleasuring the oligrachy. You can post this crap on Huffington Post. Do a word replace with one party for the other, a little dressing and voila, another screed about nothing much at all.
Something wrong here some dreamer kids are over 35 years old. Why this never was a problem before?
And how come Democrats with Obama did pile up close to 10 trillion debt in eight years and now Democrats do not want to approve 20 billion for wall?
This was one of those moments when one has to wonder just how stupid the Democrats really are?
This was an obvious loser. Picture the TV ads …… Show pictures of Americans harmed by the shutdown. Perhaps of a federal employee, maybe an anti-terrorist specialist, wondering how she’ll pay the mortgage if the paycheck doesn’t come. Then the announcer comes on and says “and the Democrats inflicted this pain on hard-working Americans to favor illegal immigrants.”
At this point, one has to start to wonder if the Democrats have a mole in their high organization that is secretly working for the Republicans. Or are the Democrats now so completely out of touch with the American people? Maybe Schumer needs to stop having dinner with Wall Street bankers long enough to spend a little time with ordinary Americans? Either way, this was an obvious, brain-dead, sure-loser of an issue for the Democrats to fight over.
To James Kirkpatrick,
Great article as usual.
One issue never brought up is the investigation into pedophilia and sexual perversions of high ranking politicians. This only started happening after President Trump and his backers gained political, financial, and military ascendancy. This is the reason both democrats and republicans politicians are “Retiring” rather suddenly.
Most of the Founding Fathers were in horror of the Demos; of Democracy. They worked diligently to see we never went that way. Most of what we subscribe to is the mythology we’ve been forced fed for centuries. The rest of the world ignores our jingoism and judges our actions. They are no longer impressed. Learn Mandarin as Ivanka’s kids have done. Might come in handy.
https://robertmagill.wordpress.com/2017/04/18/we-have-always-been-a-right-wing-plutocracy/
OOOPs. Posted to the wrong columnist.
This is today. If I were betting I’d give the points against the Republicans going forward.
If you learn Mandarin then you’re stuck working with the Chinese, which sucks. Way more than Americans, Germans, whomever else working with the Chinese is impossible. You can’t have a schedule because everything takes too long, you can’t have a budget because everything costs too much and you can’t freeze the project’s scope because they don’t know what they want!
Do not make your kids learn Mandarin you’re offering them a life of working with some really crappy organizations/companies.
Minorities don’t generally want more unskilled labor entering the country, for obvious reasons…Whether that will change their votes is unknown
The defeat of Roy Moore was the doing of Republicans. McConnell, Sessions, Graham, Shelby, McCain, and Ivanka all piled on. Was Moore guilty of statutory rape? Maybe, but if any of these people had actual knowledge of the situation they should have brought it forward, and if they didn’t they should have shut up and waited for the facts to come in. Roy Moore was targeted because he’s an old-fashioned paleo-conservative religious fundamentalist — something the party’s single-issue liberal billionaire donors despise.
I don’t have much confidence that the GOP leadership (the French Republicans) will hang tough any of the immigration issues; they only watch the M5M, and all they hear is how many of Trump’s base (62% or some absurd number like that) want to help the children, and so they will, because they want to be loved by the M5M, unless …
The grass roots in flyover country better get busy making it crystal clear to their lower-ranking Republican Reps that they don’t support the DACA Kiddies or DREEMERS and that it is time to consider new leadership, because another cave-in will usher in that blue-tide we think we might have dodged.
#StopTheInvasion
Still thinking over what this all means.
Was Moore guilty of statutory rape?
No, even in the accusation, he only got to second base and then with the bra and possibly the top in the way. There is no evidence he got even as far as a kiss with the ones claiming he was a creep at the mall. She was also 14 in a state with the age of consent at 16. It is highly likely that plenty of 14 year olds back then started playing and ended up in a shotgun marriage at 16.
Most Americans are dead stupid when it comes to the details of any policy. Breitbart and Tucker Carson are getting out the word that these people don’t even rise to the level of mediocre and on the whole will never be a net positive to America but nobody else in the media (and that includes anybody else on Fox) will touch it.
The average American thinks we will be kicking out some valedictorian whose high school project was getting cold fusion to work. They don’t realize that we are keeping illegals who will get the jobs in fast food that our teenagers used to do for a year or two before going to college or getting a real job.
If the accusation is true, Judge Moore committed sexual abuse with the 14 year old, a misdemeanor.
In any case, it was enought for 200, 000 Republican voters to stay home.
It would be great if welfare could be marked as nonessential spending. That way the next time the government shuts down, Democrats would face the choice of pitting two of their pet parasites against each other. Blacks and illegals would be ripping each other apart.
Judge Moore committed sexual abuse
I am not sure that is true since it was consensual. Banging your underage girlfriend can get you statutory rape but I don’t think there is statutory sexual contact.
Time will tell . . .
DACA is just a start point — there are plenty of sovereignty issues to go.
McConnell just had to trash Moe Brooks at any cost, which left the door open to Moore. Having left Moore in the catbird seat, McConnell seems to have decided McConnell was safer with a Dem in that seat rather than imposing a little party discipline and backing Moore.
Moore did surprisingly well considering what was being thrown at him and who was working against him. Nothing short of remarkable, actually.
Think about it … maybe 200k Republicans stayed home, but far many more showed party loyalty than the Party’s own leadership.
#McConnellMustGo
(a) A person commits the crime of sexual abuse in the second degree if:
…
(2) He, being 19 years old or older, subjects another person to sexual contact who is less than 16 years old, but more than 12 years old.
(b) Sexual abuse in second degree is a Class A misdemeanor, except that if a person commits a second or subsequent offense of sexual abuse in the second degree within one year of another sexual offense, the offense is a Class C felony.
It all depends upon the age of the actors. If you are 16 and she is 14, and she gives you the green light you are good to go until dad shows up.
Is fondling through the bra sexual contact? A question for the jury and the voters.
Don’t call them kids, Sherlock, unless it’s in scare quotes. These are adults, some of whom are close to 40. Calling them kids help makes them seem like innocents in need of our help instead of adults who need to take responsibility for themselves regardless of what their parents chose to do.
An acquaintance of mine told me that he opposed the plan to deport these “citizens who were born here” because their parents were immigrants. I asked where he got that idea and he said, “it’s all over the news”.
I don’t watch TV, especially not TV news, so I can only imagine what kind of nonsense is being reported on CNN and the other networks. If the ideas they are pushing lead people to conclude that black is actually white, I’m happy to remain uninfected by their nonsense.
There’s also the possibility that 200,000 republican voters didn’t stay home and that the vote counts were falsified. That election was typical of the way the uniparty decides in advance that their candidate won.
http://investmentwatchblog.com/democrat-judge-announces-election-results-will-be-erased-after-alabama-senate-race-they-are-trying-to-block-any-recount-requests/
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/us/alabama-senate-jones-moore-writeins.html
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/updates-democrat-jones-projected-winner-alabama-senate-race/story?id=51720725
The advance work was even announced before the voting started. Write-in votes, deletion of count documentation and the msm outlets issuing their predictions telegraphed the intentions of the usual suspects to hand an election to a patently unacceptable candidate.
It happens in Virginia with every election, so I don’t doubt it happened in Alabama as well.
I thought the context was self-evident, but you make a good point.
Just asking, but since the crime is a state crime, did this come from Alabama criminal statutes 40 years ago? Maybe 40 years ago it wasn’t even a crime in Alabama. Lots of crimes get added over time to make some vocal minority happy. I doubt peeing by the side of the road was a crime as high as a Class D felony (exposing yourself) back then.