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NATIONAL DATA: Unprecedented Real Wages Surge Under Trump Collapses Under Biden—Border Treason A Cause
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[Research by Edwin S. Rubenstein]

A funny thing happened to the usual cheerleading that greeted the June job report [U.S. Economy Added 372,000 Jobs in June, Defying Slowdown Fears, by Lydia DePillis, NYT, July 8, 2022]. In fact several funny things: a continued Biden Rush at the southern border; record inflation numbers; and (despite the New York Times’ headlined prediction) a “slowdown” that everyone knows would be called a recession if the GOP were in power [GDP fell 0.9% in the second quarter, the second straight decline and a strong recession signal, by Jeff Cox, CNBC, July 28, 2022]. But the cheerleading was misplaced anyway, because as usual it missed the extent to which immigrants (legal and illegal, government data does not distinguish) are taking native-born Americans’ jobs.

According to the widely cited Survey of Employers, the economy added back 372,000 jobs in June. Average hourly earnings rose a 5.1% year-over-year [Y-O-Y], a level that in most years would translate to large real income gains. Unfortunately, with the latest CPI inflation running at 9.1%, Y-O-Y, average incomes are still falling behind in real, inflation-adjusted, dollars.

[Scorching inflation hits 9.1%, highest since 1981, by Courtenay Brown, Axios, July 13, 2022]

The result: the extraordinary 2017-2021 Trump surge in real incomes, attributable at least in part to his curtailment of immigration through executive action and low inflation, has dramatically busted under Biden, attributable at least in part to his unleashing immigration and monetary laxness.

[Employed full time: Median usual weekly real earnings: Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over (LES1252881600Q), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated July 22, 2022]

Underlying this wild gyration: the fact that, under Trump, the immigrant workforce population actually began falling significantly—before bouncing back under Biden.

[amcharts id=“294“]

Thus, in contrast to the Trump trend, in June 2022, despite 1.056 million immigrants reported as unemployed, the foreign-born working-age population expanded by more than 2 million Y-O-Y for the second consecutive month. May and June of 2022 were the first consecutive months of 2-million plus immigrant workforce growth in the past 15 years.

Note carefully what this chart shows. Unlike our other charts, which show absolute values, this one compares each month to the same month of the prior year. So the immigrant workforce population grew by 2.058 million in June compared to June 2021. The corresponding increases for March, April, and May were 1.397 million, 1.970 million, and 2.361 million, respectively.

For most of 2020, the population of working-age immigrants declined Y-O-Y. This far exceeded the net exodus during the 2008 Great Recession, and the brief net exodus during Trump’s first year, when his mere presence seemed to have jawboned illegals into fleeing.

The immigrant population of working age started growing again only in December 2020—when Biden’s election spurred a renewed invasion.

The Biden Rush must exert a downward pressure on wages. But additionally, apprehensions on the southwest border were above 200,000 for the fourth consecutive month:

[amcharts id=“297“]

Some recession-deniers point to the continuing job growth reported in June. But employment is typically a lagging indicator of economic conditions. And the “other” employment survey, of Households rather than Employers, is already flashing red. The Household Survey showed total employment declining by 315,000 in June, according to our analysis.

However, contrary to the major trend dating back to the Obama Administration, our analysis also shows that in June native-born American workers gained jobs, while immigrants lost them:

  • Immigrants (legal and illegal) lost 439,000 jobs, a 1.5% fall from May.
  • Native-born Americans gained 124,000 positions, a 0.1% rise from May
  • Thus VDARE.com’s immigrant employment index, set at 100.0 in January 2009, fell to 130.4 from 132.4 in May, a 1.5% decline.
  • VDARE.com’s native-born American employment index rose to 107.7 from 107.6 in May, a 0.1% increase.

The New VDARE American Worker Displacement Index (NVDAWDI), our name for the ratio of the immigrant to native-born American employment growth indexes since Jan. 2009, fell to 121.1 in June, a 1.54% reduction from the record level (123.0) set in May.

[amcharts id=“295“]

Another displacement metric—the immigrant share of total employment—also retreated from the peak reached in May. Our analysis indicates that 17.847% of jobs were held by immigrants in June, down 1.4% from May’s 18.089%.

But May’s reading was the highest since we started tracking employment by nativity in January 2009.

[amcharts id=“296“]

In June the Household Survey reported 158.1 million people held jobs in the U.S. Each 1% rise in immigrant employment share represents a transfer of about 1.58 million jobs from native-born Americans to immigrants.

A more detailed longer-run picture of how native-born American workers fared over the past year vis-à-vis immigrants is published in Table A-7 of the monthly BLS Report:

 

Employment Status by Nativity, June 2021-June 2022

(numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted)

Jun-21 Jun-22 Change % Change
Foreign born, 16 years and older
Civilian population 42,796 44,854 2,058 4.81%
Civilian labor force 27,653 29,553 1,900 6.87%
Participation rate (%) 64.6 65.9 1.3%pts. 2.01%
Employed 26,059 28,498 2,439 9.36%
Employment/population (%) 60.9 63.5 2.6%pts. 4.27%
Unemployed 1,594 1,056 -538 -33.75%
Unemployment rate (%) 5.8 3.6 -2.2%pts. -37.93%
Not in labor force 15,143 15,300 157 1.04%
Native born, 16 years and older
Civilian population 218,542 218,981 439 0.20%
Civilian labor force 134,514 135,459 945 0.70%
Participation rate (%) 61.6 61.9 0.3%pts. 0.49%
Employed 126,224 130,180 3,956 3.13%
Employment/population (%) 57.8 59.4 1.6%pts. 2.77%
Unemployed 8,290 5,279 -3,011 -36.32%
Unemployment rate (%) 6.2 3.9 -2.3%pts. -37.10%
Not in labor force 84,028 83,522 -506 -0.60%
Source: BLS, The Employment Situation, June 2022. Table A-7, July 8, 2022.

PDF

From June 2021 to June 2022:

  • Immigrant employment rose by 2.439 million, an eye-popping 9.36%, while native-born American employment rose 3.956 million, a 4.8% gain. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS
  • The immigrant population of working age rose by 2.058 million, a gain of 4.8%, Y-O-Y, while the corresponding native-born American population increased by only 439,000—a 0.20% rise. THE IMMIGRANT WORKFORCE POPULATION GREW A WHOPPING 24 TIMES FASTER THAN THE NATIVE-BORN AMERICAN WORKFORCE POPULATION. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS
  • The immigrant labor force (people working or looking for work) grew by 6.87%, more than 9 times the 0.70% gain in the native-born American labor force. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS

(This data is from the Survey of Households, which includes self-employed workers, agricultural workers, and private family workers, who are excluded from the Payroll Survey. Also overlooked, we contend, are illegal immigrants working “off the books” in large corporations.)

  • Labor Force Participation Rates rose for both native-born Americans and immigrants, but the 1.3% point (2.01%) gain for immigrants was four times larger than the corresponding gain for native-born workers. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS
  • Unemployment rates for native-born American workers fell by 2.3 percentage points, or 37.1%, while the immigrant unemployment rate fell by 2.2 percentage points, or 37.9%. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS
  • 5.279 million native-born Americans, and 1.056 million immigrants, were unemployed in June; over the prior 12 months the number of unemployed immigrants fell by 33.8%, while native-born jobless declined by 36.3 %. ADVANTAGE NATIVE-BORN AMERICANS

The big picture: June numbers showed a continued demand for labor, especially in sectors dominated by native-born American workers. Nevertheless, labor-force participation rates for native-born Americans have fallen, Y-O-Y, relative to those of immigrants. The Fed has not yet broken the inflationary fever. Further interest rate hikes seem likely. June’s native-born American job gains could revert to trend very quickly.

(Republished from VDare by permission of author or representative)
 
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  1. Anonymous[258] • Disclaimer says:

    Ya know, the countries these immigrants come from bitch about this in the treaty bodies too. Unlike the US government, those states don’t want their workers getting screwed.

    Know what those LATAM states say? They say worker exploitation is a two-pronged attack. One prong is supply manipulation with migrants (letting them in illegally, driving them here with ratfuck wars and coups). The crucial prong is undermining labor rights. Corporate kleptocrats won’t hire beaners if they can’t fuck em over.

    https://www.uscib.org/docs/US_Ratification_of_ILO_Core_Conventions.pdf

    So if you want to curtail immigration, just push for ILO Conventions 87 and 98. That’s world-standard law, unlike the loopholed shit fakelaw the USG dreamed up to fuck you.

    You can see why crooked bosses don’t want you to think of this, cause then you would have rights. They want you to blame wetbacks so they can treat you like shit forever.

    • Thanks: anyone with a brain
  2. I appreciate seeing a Peter Brimelow post on this site. Thank you, Mr. Unz, and hello Mr. Brimelow!

    I don’t have the numbers from Ed Rubenstein, but I do get around with my eyes and ears open. It was my ears this time – a guy who drives people around to and from a hotel in southern Louisiana told me that he drives people to and from the helipads down in the delta (Houma) where they get their rides to the oil rigs in the Gulf for a week at a time or what have you.

    These guys happened to have been staying at this hotel, he told me. “Why?” Because they are Filipinas, and not from around there. Rather than get into a political discussion with this very nice van driver, I just surmised that these guys were SPECIFICALLY brought into this country to work on the rigs. True, this may have been for housekeeping and that, but these BigBiz folks going for the cheap labor won’t stop unless we make it very HARD on them.

    Not only does it hurt American workers’ wages, but it’s Human Trafficking, plain and simple. Big Biz CEOs will lecture the employees to keep an eye out for human trafficking, as if it’s an American thing. No, it’s not an American thing – it’s Zhou Bai Dien policy now.*

    .

    * More here.

  3. The only way to stop illegal imigration and invasion is if USA declares asylum or refuge will not be granted to anyone for next 10 years. Also poice and border patrol iCE etc . must be enabled to interrogate any ctizen within USA land at any time and every person that is living illegally in USA will be punished with jail and big fines hat his or her country will have to pay if the law breaker can not pay. ONLy that wan the countries that send illegals to USA will stopt doing that.

  4. Franz says:

    This happens now and again.

    It happened under Reagan just as his second year ended. Steelworkers and foundrymen were getting their jobs destroyed all over the country… but agribusiness had put more land into production in the preceding seasons and so lots of alien low-wage jobs were added.

    Reagan had a lot of seasons like that.

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