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The recent China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai attracted little attention in the Western press but it is one more reminder that China is an economic and trading powerhouse that has surpassed the US. That is right, the word is “surpassed.” The CIIE also serves to remind us that China’s economic power now stands on four mighty pillars.

Americans must understand this clearly, for ultimately all power grows out of economic power, including military power. A confrontational approach to China is therefore extremely dangerous in many ways, and it is being urged on us by almost all of the ruling Elite. The consequences of such confrontation are far different from aggression against Venezuela or Bolivia or Syria or Iraq or Afghanistan- or even Russia. Failure to comprehend China’s strength could lead to a mortal disaster for the U.S. – and for China and indeed the world, as Henry Kissinger has recently warned us.

This brief essay is written as one small contribution to forestall such a disaster. It provides a thumbnail sketch, a primer, of China’s economic tetrad, that is four pillars which provide a measure of China’s power and how it interacts with the world based on that power. These four are: 1, The GDP in PPP terms; 2, Exports; 3,Imports; and 4, Internal Retail Market. In each case we shall compare them to the U.S. There have been plenty of forecasts predicting the imminent disintegration of China’s economy over the decades, and none has come to pass. So, let us have done with forecasts and concentrate mainly on what we observe before us. In that spirit this essay is for the most part a review of cold, hard facts as they presently exist. It is written by a non-economist and that is one reason it hews to the world as it is, not as it might or might not be, given a host of assumptions, models and, mostly, wishful thinking. I hope it does not insult your intelligence, dear reader. It is only an introduction that hopefully also serves as a wake-up call to the reality of our world.

1.China has the world’s largest GDP in PPP terms and this has been true since November, 2014.

Of the four economic pillars we wish to consider, the first and most fundamental is the sheer size of its economy as seen in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Here the conventional wisdom views China’s as the number two GDP – but the surprise to most people is that in fact it is number one. China now has the largest GDP in the world in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms, a metric used by the IMF, World Bank and even the CIA for comparing GDPs of different countries. So it is a measure not to be dismissed lightly or dismissed at all. The IMF which provides the most recent data, provided in October, 2019, gives the PPP-GDP for China and the US, thus:

China, $27.3 trillion U.S., $21.4 trillion

(The number for China does not include Hong Kong, a Chinese city, with a PPP-GDP of $0.491 trillion or Macau with $0.078 trillion. Those two bring China’s total to $27.9 tn.)

Let’s now consider what the PPP metric is in order to see why it is the most meaningful way to compare national GDPs. Briefly the PPP calculation corrects the nominal GDP, the GDP of any country in dollars. The nominal GDP is calculated simply by using the present currency exchange rate to express a country’s GDP in dollars rather than the native currency, for example the Chinese yuan. The PPP correction of the nominal GDP gives a measure of the actual purchasing ability or purchasing power of the total GDP in a given country. Let’s take a [hypothetical] example to understand this. [Suppose] China produced 127 trillion yuan’s worth of goods and services in 2017. Using an exchange rate of 6.37 yuan per dollar, that amounts to US $11.97 trillion. That is China’s nominal GDP. The United States GDP that year was $19.36 trillion. These values $11.97 trillion and $19.46 trillion are designated as the “nominal GDPs” for the two countries, and they are the values we see for the most part in the mainstream media.

But now let us assume that the only good or service produced in the two countries were a Big Mac. In 2017 a Big Mac cost about $3.17 in China but $5.28 in the U.S. using the standard exchange rate for Chinese yuan to U.S. dollars. Thus, Big Macs are cheaper in China – for all sorts of reasons, including different costs of ingredients, labor, transport, etc. So the “Big Mac PPP” ratio for US/China in this example is 5.28/3.17 or 1.67. Now we can calculate the GDPs in PPP terms by applying that ratio to the Chinese nominal GDP. The new values are $19.36 trillion for the US, unchanged, and $19.93 trillion (that is, $11.97 trillion times 1.67) for China. Now China’s GDP, in PPP terms, is the larger of the two. The real PPP ratio used by IMF, World Bank and CIA World Fact Book does not limit itself to Big Macs of course, but uses a “basket” of goods and services to calculate the PPP ratio. In that basket are rockets as well as hamburgers, the wages of factory workers and tech workers as well as those of McDonald workers, factory robots as well as hamburger ovens. The PPP-GDP tells us how much more purchasing power is available than might be recognized based solely on simple exchange rates, i.e., nominal GDPs. (In fact, there is a Big Mac PPP index originally suggested by The Economist some years back as a comic device, but it can give some rough qualitative information since the recipe and ingredients for the Big Mac are precisely the same the world over. Universality is a Big Mac characteristic, the same quality claimed by many religions and for Western values.). The PPP metric is the relevant one for measuring the power of an economy since it tells us what can actually be purchased – currency is meaningless unless and until it actually buys something.

Using the PPP metric, China’s GDP surpassed that of the U.S. in November of 2014 according to the IMF, and today stands at approximately 130% of the U.S. PPP-GDP, according to the IMF’s values for 2019 given above. However, nominal GDP is used by the US and Chinese government routinely in public statements, and there the Chinese GDP is today about 66% of the US GDP. One suspects that this convention satisfies the Chinese government’s desire not to alarm the US, and the US government’s desire to appear as number one in all things. But barring some unforeseen catastrophe, the same story will soon be repeated with the nominal GDP; China will surpass the US in nominal GDP in about 15 years’ time by my rough calculation. But that is a prediction and we wish to avoid them as much as possible. Here we wish to emphasize the PPP-GDP as it already exists. The mainstream Western media also use the nominal GDPs of China and the US for comparison, rarely ever alluding to PPP-GDP. So, it is no surprise that relatively few people are aware of the latter.

Furthermore, even at its present “slowed” pace of about 6%, China’s GDP is growing at a much faster rate than that of the US, about 2.0%. There is no sign that China’s GDP will fall back to number two and no prediction from a reliable source that it will do so. It is this enormous and rapidly growing GDP that is the fundamental pillar of China’s economic power.

Finally, even though China has the world’s largest gross PPP-GDP, it remains a developing nation. It is now both rich and poor. With nearly 1.4 billion people, its per capita nominal GDP is about one-quarter that of the U.S. China is rich in terms of collective power but relatively poor in terms of individual income. So, China needs to develop its economy much more if it is to meet its stated goal of bringing most of its people into the middle class by 2049, the centenary of its founding. Nevertheless, national economic power depends on total economic output not per capita output. If 1 billion people each contribute a dime or 100 million each contribute a dollar, the end result is sufficient to buy, for example, a $100 million base for satellite launches. For national power, more often than not, it is the total that counts.

In general, the PPP metric is used only for GDP. All values in the following sections are based simply on the exchange rate with no further corrections.

2. China is the world’s number one exporter.

The second pillar underlying China’s economic prowess is its well-known status as the world’s largest exporter. Here the surprise is that China is ahead, but not by so much as we are often told when China is excoriated for “taking advantage” of the US in international trade. According to the UN’s most recent numbers, those for 2018, the export of goods by the U.S. and China are as follows in trillions of US dollars:

Export of goods (2018):

China, $2.5 trillion U.S., $1.7 trillion

(This number for China does not include Hong Kong with an export volume of $0.6 trillion, an addition that brings the total to $3.1 trillion.)

But these numbers, the ones usually given, do not include export of services, which provides a much larger addition to the U.S.’s total exports than to China’s

Export of services (2018)

China, $ 0.23 trillion US, $0.83 trillion

In 2018 the U.S. was far and away the world’s largest exporter of services, whereas China lagged behind the US, UK, Germany and France to be the fifth largest services exporter. And over the period from 2014 to 2018, China’s service exports grew by 6% compared to 11% for the U.S. In the area of service exports China shows definite weakness, perhaps due to its greater language and cultural distance from the West. India for example, though number 6 in service exports, saw them grow by 30% in the 2014-2018 period.

For those curious about which services are exported, some of the major ones coming out of China are found here and out of the U.S. here. Since the US is primarily a service economy, it is not surprising that services should be about one-third of its total exports. And service exports may provide better jobs than manufacture of products for export. For example, one category of service export is education when foreigners come to the US and pay to go to school. Is it better to be producing more professors or more auto workers? Which provides better income and better quality of life? I see China’s relatively poor performance in this area as a definite weakness, partly due to the level of development of its economy and partly due to its lesser soft power and its linguistic and cultural distance from the West.

Total export of goods and services (2018)

China, $2.7 trillion US, $2.5 trillion

Nevertheless, China is number one in exports, and its export growth has proved remarkably resilient. According to the Financial Times of 9/22/2018): “After overtaking Germany as the world’s top exporter of goods in 2009, Chinese exports have grown at an average of 5 per cent a year to $2.26tn in 2017, compared with annual global export growth below 2 per cent. China’s share of manufacturing exports expanded to 18 per cent from 12 per cent during the past decade — adding to gains made after China’s 2001 entry to the WTO which accelerated the decline of manufacturing employment in developed countries.”

In the same very informative piece the FT also notes that, although the world’s attention has been focused on China’s development of high-tech products by companies like Huawei, the rapid increase in China’s exports has been for “medium level technology such as vehicles and their parts, electrical machinery and construction machinery.” Says the FT, “China is the now dominant producer in medium high-tech industries, with its global share nearly tripling in the past decade to 32 per cent, according to the US National Science Board, surpassing the US in the late 2000s and the EU this decade.”

Moreover, 48% of China’s exports go to countries outside the developed countries of the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) according to the FT. This lessens the influence of the U.S. and its European semi-vassal states over China, and it provides links of all sorts between China and (?, you just said it exports to undeveloped countries in same paragraph) and the developing world. China appears to be far from relying solely on the U.S. market and other Western markets to consume its products.

China is now showing determination to move further up the value chain to high tech and this was formalized in 2015 with the “Made in China 2025” 10 year plan, inspired by Germany’s Industry 4.0. It is this, not the Belt and Road Initiative, that has official Washington wringing its hands. This program is already well under way as exemplified by Huwei’s 5G technology and growth to number three among sales in smart phones. In this essay, however, we are trying to speak as much as possible about present realities, and China is only at the threshold of high tech production and exports. But let us note the following from the Nikkei Asian Review in a story titled “China memory chip output zooms from zero to 5% of world total: Mass production to start in 2020 as Beijing guns for technological self-sufficiency.” The opening reads: “Taipei — Beijing’s push for technological self-sufficiency is on the verge of a major breakthrough, with the country’s nascent chip industry on track to produce around 5% of the world’s memory chips by the end of 2020 from virtually zero last year, sources familiar with the matter told the Nikkei Asian Review.” The US restrictions on memory chips and other electronic commodities are apparently driving China to become self-sufficient and thereby becoming a competitor with the U.S. and other developed countries on world markets. One can ask if the U.S. is behaving wisely in cutting off China from importing U.S. electronic products. It is hard to see how that helps the U.S. balance of payments much less the future market share of U.S. chip makers and manufacturers of other electronic devices. Are the US concerns over “security” real or merely another form of protectionism?

3. China is the number two importer in the world with the second largest retail market and the largest e-retail market – the CIIE in Shanghai.

China’s rapid ascent as importer is not so well-known as its role as exporter. However, in November, 2019, the second annual China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai brought this to the world’s attention. Business people and government officials from all over the world came to Shanghai to pitch their wares to Chinese importers for the burgeoning internal Chinese market. (Recall the first limb of the Chinese economic triad is the ever-growing Chinese economy with growing wages and salaries which generate a huge demand for products.) Perhaps the most noted dignitary was President Macron of France who was urging French wines and other goods on Chinese importers, wine merchants and restauranteurs. He even seduced Xi Jinping into tasting some Gallic grape which they jointly toasted. Of course Xi gave a speech touting, what else, “opening up,” and reminding the visitors that said opening up included a welcome mat for exporters from around the globe to sell to China.

The import volumes of goods for 2018, the latest year for which values are available, are:

China, $2.1 trillion U.S., $2.6 trillion

Import of services (2018):

China, $0.5 trillion U.S., $0.6 trillion

Total import of goods and services (2018):

China, $2.6 trillion U.S., $3.2 trillion

Further, China’s imports are now approaching its exports of goods and services in value ($2.7 trillion, see above) with imports growing at nearly twice the rate of exports. If this trend continues as seems extremely likely, the Chinese positive trade surplus should diminish, making its exports and imports more balanced and removing some of the fear of its export prowess in the world. More pointedly, China’s growing imports provide the basis for alleviating the trade imbalance that is driving the Trumpian trade war with China. If one looks at what the U.S. exports and what China currently needs, the match is pretty good. China needs agricultural and very high tech products. Cut China off from either and it will find other sources, as it has for agricultural products, or invent and manufacture its own, for example chips for electronic devices. We might ask if that is a wise strategy for the U.S.?

4. China’s retail market is roughly equal to that of the U.S. and growing faster.

The growth in imports is one sign of more purchasing power in China. Another is the extraordinary growth in China’s retail market, which is now almost the size of the U.S.’s

Retail sales (2018):

China, $5.2 trillion US, $5.3 trillion

The boom in China’s retail market is made by possible by the growth of its ever expanding middle class. As Monica Peart, senior forecasting director of eMarketer, puts it, “In recent years, consumers in China have experienced rising incomes, catapulting millions into the new middle class. The result has been a marked rise in purchasing power and average spending per person.” China’s e-retail market is even more remarkable, far and away the largest in the world. Again eMarketer, “China’s is by far the largest ecommerce market in the world—more than three times the size of the US ecommerce market. China has a 54.7% share of the world’s ecommerce sales, while the US has just 16.6%.” This is also no surprise because the Chinese have become very tech savvy and closely linked to the internet with the links growing closer as the rollout of 5G, already well underway in China, continues rapidly.

Given the size of the Chinese market and its continued growth, virtually no large corporation wants to be shut out of the Chinese market any more than it wants to be shut out of the U.S. market. Not only corporations but the countries in which they reside must take account of this. This gives China enormous influence, an influence built upon the rising prosperity of its people and no longer on their sacrifice. Moreover, although China has a middle class of about 300 million people, approximately the size of the entire U.S. population, it has 1.4 billion people, and it plans to bring almost all of them into its middle class by 2049, on time for the centenary of the founding of New China.

The immensity of such an economy will make China a power without economic peer on the world stage. And it seems irreversible. barring the prospect of an all-out war in the Pacific. But that is for the future and is beyond the scope of this essay. Predictions are hazardous even in the case of the simplest of systems. China’s present state is quite enough to argue that it should be the object of cooperation not conflict.

China’s triad – the nuclear one.

We would be remiss if after discussion of China’s economic tetrad, we did not also mention China’s nuclear weapons triad. One month before the November CIIE meeting in Shanghai was China’s National Day Parade in Beijing on October 1, celebrating the 70th anniversary of New China’s founding. There on display was China’s nuclear deterrent, the triad – of land-based ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles), SLBMs (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles, and Air Launched weapons. The new, advanced ICBMs made their first appearance, providing evidence that China’s nuclear triad is now fully developed. In short China, like Russia and the U.S., can now destroy any country that attempts to make war on them.

But several features of China’s nuclear deterrent deserve notice. As Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post tells us: “The current Chinese nuclear arsenal is estimated to be around 250 warheads in accordance with its “minimal deterrence” strategy, and the country has adopted a “no first use” doctrine towards nuclear missiles…..According to Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military commentator, ‘China doesn’t need to keep too many nuclear warheads, and just lets long-range missiles be equipped with the expensive nuclear warheads, because that’s enough for nuclear deterrence.’” Unlike Russia or the U.S., China does not have thousands of nuclear warheads, and unlike the US it has taken “first use” of nuclear weapons “off the table.” China possesses a powerful deterrent but now presents no offensive threat.

Conclusion.

What are we to make of this economic and military power of China? In sum China is a mighty economic power that cannot be destroyed and has no offensive posture toward the U.S. – or any other country. What is the U.S. to do? Is the answer not obvious – in fact inescapable given the relative power of the two nations? It is time to work out a peaceful arrangement that allows us to live together. The U.S. should do this now while it is possible and before the catastrophe of accidental war, nuclear war, engulfs us all. The clock is ticking.

John V. Walsh can be reached at [email protected]. He writes about issues of war, peace and empire, and about health care, for Antiwar.com, Consortium News, Dissident Voice.org and other outlets. Now living in the East Bay, he was until recently Professor of Physiology and Cellular Neuroscience at a Massachusetts Medical School.

 
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  1. Isn’t China’s debt 4x its GDP? Sounds pretty scary.

  2. Anonymous[411] • Disclaimer says:

    I find it odd how passionately White Americans defend “their” country, considering it is dominated by Jews and blacks and they are very much second class citizens in it and becoming ever more so year on year.

    Yet despite this most of them still have a naive “USA! USA! USA!” mentality, even many white Americans who should know better, such as self-proclaimed “ethnic nationalists” still very often have this mentality. You won’t find this mentality so much amongst ethnic nationalists in Europe, European ethnic nationalists are no where near as invested in supporting the state as Americans are, in fact most European ethnic nationalists frankly see the state as the enemy without a doubt.

    • Agree: Ghan-buri-Ghan
    • Replies: @Realist
    , @Moi
  3. Lin says:

    China produced 127 trillion yuan’s worth of goods and services in 2017

    A typo: China’s GDP in 2017 is 82.7 trillion yuan not 127 trillion yuan according to Chinese gov stats bureau
    PPP GDP could be grossly inaccurate because it doesn’t taking into account consumption pattern.
    Some examples:
    1)The poorer the people, the bigger % of the household budget is spent on food and US farmers have lower production cost of bulk food (Corn and soy are good examples) because of higher degree of mechanization. Consumer computer HW in china also don’t seem to be cheaper.
    2)Indian PPP GDP is said to be $11 trillion. No way india has half of American economic power.
    I once read from an indian nationalist site that it costs 24 times more to have a hair cut in US than in india. Service quality and service experience of the customers aside, tell me how much bulk food could a poor indian barber buy with his/her meagre income?

  4. Here is a great 4-minute video that explains these basics to Americans:

    • Agree: Biff
    • Thanks: Alfred
    • LOL: eah
    • Replies: @eah
  5. A123 says:

    The official numbers may look good, however there are all sorts of problems that make those government sponsored values seem mythical.
    _____

    China has a ‘pump priming’ problem that is worse than the U.S.: (1)

    China stimulated its economy aggressively in Q1 and Q3 2019, but we have not observed a similar emphasis on infrastructure investments as we saw in 2015/2016. In its record-breaking stimulus program in Q3, for example, China concentrated on providing loose credit to enterprises through both conventional and “shadow” banks.

    What is notable is that even with this record stimulus, China has kept its economy growing barely above the “official rate”. This tells us that the Chinese economy has reached or is very close to reaching the point of debt saturation, where households and corporations simply cannot absorb any more debt, and any new debt-issuance fails to stimulate the economy.

    ____

    China has a impending bank failure problem: (2)

    Finally, for those curious which banks are most likely to follow in Baoshang’s footsteps, and fail next, Barclays has compiled a list of regional banks that have delayed publishing 2018 reports, the biggest red flag suggesting an upcoming solvency “event.”

    .

    ______

    Also, consider the fact that the U.S. is ending (or at least reducing) Chinese exploitation in currency valuation and trade arrangements. This is a moving target as negotiations continue, but serious analysts are confident that this will slow portions of the Chinese economy.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/end-chinese-miracle

    (2) https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-30/which-chinese-banks-will-fail-next

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
    , @ritchiet
  6. TG says:

    A word about Henry Kissinger.

    I remember when MFN for China was being ‘debated’ in congress. In New York Times editorials Henry Kissinger insisted that shipping our entire industrial base to communist China would be wonderful and great and there could be no possible downside.

    Of course, these New York Time editorials never mentioned that he was being paid millions of dollars by communist China (laundered through “Kissinger Associates”).

    Whatever else one thinks about all of this, remember that Henry Kissinger was a traitor to his country.

    • Agree: GMC
  7. “for ultimately all power grows out of economic power”

    So then what could possibly be the reason why the USA exported its economic base to China?

    • Replies: @Erebus
  8. @Lin

    “according to Chinese gov stats bureau”

    Well that is a real facepalm moment right there. If china is like the USA most “stats” are made up……..like the inflation and unemployment rates for example.

    • Replies: @Lin
  9. “The nominal GDP is calculated simply by using the present currency exchange rate to express a country’s GDP in dollars”

    these China are masters of the universe articles always argue the same things in their own metrics………how is this metric relevant when China PEGS their currency to the dollar? They can make up any exchange they want to get any PPP level they desire…………..this all just seems so nonsensical.

    Also, I notice that the “China miracle” articles always shift into high gear when the top is in…..IMHO.

  10. Anon[200] • Disclaimer says:

    A trade deal with China is the last thing the US needs. We need a complete decoupling from China, the sooner the better. We need to produce more of what we consume, and they need to consume more of what they produce. Bring back our manufacturing, restore jobs to the heartland. The farm sector is owned almost entirely by 4 multinational corporations that hire the most illegal immigrants, send them all home. Better to create more factory jobs and keep the “deplorables” employed, who are committing suicide and OD’ing on opioid in droves out of despair.

    Same goes for India — their entire service sector is built on outsourcing from the US. It’s time to end the gravy train. End the H1b visa and send these leeches packing, hire and train our own citizens.

  11. US GDP is only 8 trillion when you take out the US govt debt and military. Only an 8 trillion dollars on the productive side.

    Anyway has anyone seen the new Ukraine aircraft crash video ? Its mass murder. 2 shots, 30 second pause between 1st and kill shot.

    MASS MURDER

    • Replies: @Alfred
    , @Ber
    , @Anon
  12. Automation is coming.

    Whichever country handles the coming industrial revolution 4.0 better will reign what is left of this century.

  13. China seems very geographically vulnerable. Much of that industrial base and economic power would disappear with the destruction of several dams. Couple that with a biological weapon like SARS and the greatest genocide on Earth will take place within a matter of months. If anything China should be pumping out nukes like their lives depend on it.

    • Replies: @anon
    , @JohnPlywood
  14. @Priss Factor

    No, China’s debt to GDP ratio is the same as America’s and Europe’s, 250%.

    Its debt burden is much lower because its economy is growing three times faster than ours, and its debt is entirely internal.

    China’s debt burden is thus less than one-third of of ours.

    • Replies: @Mefobills
    , @bobbybobbob
  15. @A123

    Zero Hedge is not a reliable source for information on China. It has always been wrong in both its premises and its predictions.

    See my comment on China’s debt, above.

    • Replies: @Gorgeous George
  16. Yee says:

    TG,

    “I remember when MFN for China was being ‘debated’ in congress. In New York Times editorials Henry Kissinger insisted that shipping our entire industrial base to communist China would be wonderful and great and there could be no possible downside.”

    You do understand that MFN is just a un-discrimination status, don’t you? It just promise to treat China the same as other countries. China also must treat US companies the same as Singapore, Japanese, Korean, Germany, Dutch, Franch, British, Italian etc., no discrimination.

    Henry Kissinger doesn’t need communist China to give him money. He makes plenty of money from consulting fee from US companies which want to enter China. Everytime he visit China, he takes several CEOs to accompany him. Since Kissinger is guaranteed to meet with the leaders, those CEOs will have a nice photo meeting with the leaders to hang in their company… That’s going to cost them quite a bit of consulting fee.

  17. @Priss Factor

    Could be scary. Depends a lot on how the debt is denominated (in your own or foreign currency) & who took it out (public or private) & how it was used (mere speculation or investment in material production or R & D)?

    • Agree: Erebus, Mefobills
  18. @Lin

    Considering the population difference, it is quite plausible India has half the economic power as as America.

    But this is in number terms, economic power also means the types of goods being sold. Surely the country selling $1b worth of computer chip will have more economic leverage than a country selling $1b worth of clothes and food?

  19. @TG

    Kissinger was Jewish so he was the complete opposite of a traitor, he was a patriot of his country which is the Nation of Israel.

  20. GMC says:

    The Plan was to loot America – before it falls { unlike the Soviet Union } . Wall Street and the Federal Reserve /Central Banks/ MIC have already finished with the plan to – not only loot America but to use it as a tool to print as much money as it wants= tens of Trillions. The country was 100% sabotaged, along with any big dollar social funds { SS , housing/urban development, you name them }, and the next Wall Street/ Fed induced depression, will suck even more out from an already dried up society. They will get the upper middle class – next. There is no one working for any huge improvements for the society – Domestic or Internationally – everyone in the Governments { Federal, State, Muni etc. } it seems, is getting all the money and benefits they can .I’m sorry, but I don’t see any positive future, until it comes crashing down and the people can fight off the armies of governmental Controllers that will sabotage everything they can – even afterwards. These ” Owners” got what they wanted in plan #1 – they hate us and would rather eliminate most of us. China watched everything go down and is in on it. Russia too, won’t cry much either.

  21. Erebus says:
    @interesting

    “for ultimately all power grows out of economic power”

    So then what could possibly be the reason why the USA exported its economic base to China?

    They forgot?

    More seriously, America’s elites substituted financial power for economic power because it benefited them to do so. They couldn’t care less about what happened to the rest of the country. They don’t live there.

    Not only did they benefit directly from America’s de-industrialization, but they figured to benefit from the eventual financialization of China’s industrial growth as well. The Chinese had better ideas, and cut them out of the deal. American elites will go down because of it, but Middle America got double shafted. First by their own elites, and then by their elites’ failure to shaft the Chinese.

    That’s what happens when you don’t pay attention to the traitors in your midst.

    • Agree: Iris, 22pp22, Ilyana_Rozumova
  22. Jason Liu says:

    Both the American center left and center right have concluded that China is a threat to the postwar “world order”, “global norms”, “universal liberal values” etc, and from now on that will be the basis for conflict regardless of China’s economic size. The question is how China will respond to this challenge.

    When I was younger I used to think we’ll just make money and keep to ourselves, like Japan/Korea, but unfortunately China’s size attracts much more attention and makes this sort of isolationism untenable. For long-term security the CCP should try to de-normalize the liberal values that the US enforces on the world, so that states that aren’t liberal democracies can still be seen as legitimate and therefore worthy of permanent support without caveats such as “one day they’ll be like us!”

  23. Erebus says:
    @Anon

    We need a complete decoupling from China, the sooner the better.

    You’re getting it, but these things take time. Also, be careful what you wish for. It’ll take more than a generation to “bring back our manufacturing”.

    One reason is that the people who built and worked America’s industrial heartland are retired or gone. A whole generation of hard working men & women have to be raised to man the plants. Who’s gonna raise them? Make that 2 generations. In the meantime, decoupling means a world of hurt for Americans.

    It has to be done, so it will be. The question is how.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  24. China’s most significant advantage in becoming an economic powerhouse is that it doesn’t have parasitic Jews bleeding it to death.

  25. Chinese women are homely. That’s something.

  26. Realist says:
    @Anonymous

    I find it odd how passionately White Americans defend “their” country, considering it is dominated by Jews and blacks and they are very much second class citizens in it and becoming ever more so year on year.

    Yes,way too many stupid Whites.

  27. @Elementarium

    Finance is international, it is unlikely the Jews don’t have some sort of control in China seeing as it was Jew Henry Kissinger who advocated for shipping out manufacturing there in the first place.

    • Replies: @Alden
  28. anon[837] • Disclaimer says:
    @shiny hand

    Sounds like a great plan to neutralize China. Also Chinese were never good at large-scale sophisticated warfare. Han Chinese population needs to be culled….too many of those ugly insects around.

    • Troll: d dan, John Arthur
  29. America has a huge technological lead over China and everyone else for that matter (no not infrastructure like airports, but leading edge technology). It’s probably going to continue for some time. No one’s going to be starting wars with us.

  30. @Erebus

    Isn’t that just a pipe dream? As automation is right around the corner.

    • Replies: @Mefobills
  31. @Elementarium

    It has elites that is different than our own. They also get rich, corrupted, but at the same time do their job and make the country they reside in a little better.

    • Replies: @Digital Samizdat
  32. Lin says:
    @interesting

    Excuse me that I typed in a rush without proper punctuation.
    It should be: according to Chinese gov stats bureau, 2017 Chinese GDP is 82.7 trillion yuan, not that mistyped 127 trillion yuan.
    GDP skepticism is not unusual, without elaborating on the subject, Chinese economic data do coincide boardly with countries with similar GDP/capita.
    Of course, china is a poor developing country overall.

  33. eah says:
    @Carlton Meyer

    While the video is short enough to be easily watched, and it is worth watching, you must have a pretty low opinion of Americans generally to think we’re dumb enough to need the rather elementary information in it.

    While today there are many Chinese tourists who return to their homes in China, there are also many Chinese who emigrate, including illegally, mostly to white countries — and Chinese are the main customers for the ‘birth tourism’ industry in the US — so the migration flow, as opposed to the tourist flow, is still pretty much unidirectional.

    I think a significant majority of ordinary western Whites are aware that China has changed substantially, and do not begrudge the Chinese their deserved success.

  34. Lin says:
    @Anon

    We need a complete decoupling from China…We need to produce more of what we consume, and they need to consume more of what they produce. Bring back our manufacturing…

    While I understand your sentiment, be reminded of the followings:

    –Most of the externally sourced investment in china are not from US.
    –Labor intensive industry: Much of the manufacturing relocated from US to China are of low-valued-added nature. Actually such manufacturing are being relocated to countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh. Feel free to compete with them or if keeping a large number of US seamtresses employed at min wage is so desirable.
    In the recent past, such industry has provided employment to rural migrants in china but demographically china has changed; I doubt, at least in the cities, young Chinese are that interested in working in low-pay factories.
    –Core or medium tech industry: Only the auto industry has received substantial investment from US. You can ask them to ignore the Chinese market and get out. One of the higher profile industries in china is high-speed rail infra-structure which is almost absent in US. China produces 8 to 10 times as much steel per year as US does.
    –Hi tech sector: China has been under severe tech sanction embargo from US. Again, you can ask Microsoft to ignore the Chinese market.
    ………………….
    Of cource decoupling from china is not enough; please add mexico, Canada, germany…to the list.
    I suggest you should also campaign to tax heavily US enterprises that replace human workers with robots.

    • Replies: @JUSA
  35. Pillar I

    There is no God but no God and China doesn’t have Big Macs but Big Unknowns (civet cat anyone?).

    Pillar Ii

    Exporter, smexporter… the world gangs up and there goes the export based economy.

    Pillar III

    Importer # 2 … well, if pillar two goes to pieces then # 1 son is not to be found in China but hiding out in plain view.

    Pillar IV

    See please one number and two number and find then please no possible four number…

    All kidding aside, the white boys (Jews and Christians) are NOT gonna give up their power to their own monster and as soon as the Iranian problem is solved to secure the black gold, Russia will be bribed to stay out of the coming confrontation with China using Taiwan as the bait.

  36. Vaterland says:
    @Jason Liu

    Japan and South Korea never were left alone to make money; both were and are effectively occupied by the USA, just like Germany is. China has a tangible chance to at least compete with the USA as a dominant factor in Europe, but for this you need a soft power revolution and understand the European mindset. It shouldn’t be too hard to offer something appealing compared to the current US “cultural revolution”. Sanity, family, peace and prosperity are all in the great harmony.

    Who knows, the end of your century of humiliation might bring an end to ours as well.

  37. China can have the designation of number one. All I see here in my neck of the woods is decay and rot. Let’s stop applying bandages to the Liberal rot. American irrelevance will mean a lot of pain. However it can bring the opportunity of much needed cleanup and restoration. We just need to dispose the military’s nuclear, biological, and conventional weapons first so as to be irreverent.

    Best wishes to China. You still owe lots of money to the Rothschild banks. Plus you got Chinese- African babies, and their mama’s, headed your way. Always remember it’s all about GDP and another dynasty. I wish I had a foam finger to send your way, but you probably made them. I also agree with Mr. Walsh, making nice is to our long term advantage. We need some not interested in payback and revenge.

  38. Alfred says:
    @Paul holland

    MASS MURDER

    Agreed.

    The question is by whom? Who do you think gained most from this tragedy?

    WORLD WAR III: Ukrainian flight PS752 Western False Flag

    Remote Hijacking/Transponder Disabling to Trigger Two Tor-M1 missiles

  39. It’s part of a long plan.

    While the US has been de-industrialized by the bankers of the City of London; China was industrialized. Many POTUS took part of the initiative ever since JFK was assassinated.

    “In mid-1913 the United Kingdom became the first country to promote the use of the yuan in Europe. Germany, France, Switzerland and Luxembourg entered the competition through the installation of OCB to facilitate the use of the «people’s currency» (‘renminbi’). Nevertheless, none of these constituted a serious threat to the United Kingdom. The City of London has more than half of operations denominated in yuan in the European continent.”

    World yuan-ization thanks to the City of London
    https://bit.ly/2TrSYrk

    “In spite of the fierce opposition of the US treasury Department, on November 30 the IMF finally approved the inclusion of the yuan in the Special Drawing Rights, the currency basket created in 1969 to complement the official reserves of the members of the multilateral organization.

    The yuan will be the third most powerful currency in the IMF basket
    https://bit.ly/36V44J3

    “… but on the contrary, it will be able to use the sovereignty of London to develop the yuan market. Already in April, it obtained the necessary privileges by signing an agreement with the Central Bank of China.”

    The Brexit reshuffles world geopolitics
    https://bit.ly/387tVxK

    IMF could be based in Beijing in a decade: Lagarde
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-imf-china-lagarde-idUSKBN1A922L

    • Replies: @Mefobills
    , @foolisholdman
  40. Agent76 says:

    Jan 14, 2020 China’s rising yuan means rude awakening for Americans

    Peter Schiff discusses China’s economy, their rising Renminbi and what that means for American consumers and investors – RT America Boom Bust January 13th 2020.

    • Replies: @Mefobills
  41. onebornfree says: • Website

    The Chinese Economy-Living on Borrowed Time!

    The return [under Xi] of the idiotic, anti-freedom, hard-core communist, pre-Xiaoping economic policies means that China is currently living on borrowed time and must collapse at some point in time, and probably quite soon.

    Fact:The more that the power mad commies at the top react to this collapse via even more top-down, centralized control measures, [i.e. “doubling down”] the faster, and the worse that economic collapse will be.

    Since power-mad megalomaniacs like Xi and his ilk are incapable of learning either through education, history [ e.g. the USSR], or even via direct experience, I expect the collapse of the “Chinese miracle” to continue unabated, and for it to actually accelerate, as the mainland Chinese communist economic illiterates running the show literally double down on their highly destructive policies of  even less economic freedom and  even more draconian control of the Chinese population.

    See:
    China Braces For December D-Day: The “Unprecedented” Default Of A Massive State-Owned Enterprise: something is seriously starting to break in China’s financial system.

    “Three days after we described the self-destructive doom loop that is tearing apart China’s smaller banks,  where a second bank run took place in just two weeks – an unprecedented event for a country where until earlier this year not a single bank was allowed to fail publicly and has now had no less than five bank  high profile nationalizations/bailouts/runs so far this year – the Chinese bond market is bracing itself for an unprecedented shock: a major, Fortune 500 Chinese commodity trader is poised to become the biggest and highest profile state-owned enterprise to default in the dollar bond market in over two decades.”:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-braces-unprecedented-massive-default-state-owned-enterprise

    China’s Skyscraper Boom Comes Crashing Down Amid Developer Default”
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinas-skyscraper-boom-halted-amid-developer-default

    “Economic Recovery Narrative Doomed: Fathom’s China Momentum Indicator Signals More Downside Ahead”
    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/without-china-global-economy-doomed-brace-downside

    Regards, onebornfree
    http://onebornfreesfinancialsafetyreports.blogspot.com/

    • Disagree: bluedog
    • LOL: Mefobills
  42. Mefobills says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    its debt is entirely internal.

    Godfree… China’s debt is internal yes. But, even more salient point is that China’s debt paper is housed within her state banks. People that compare debts are missing the “type and channeling” factors inherent in money. They are comparing unlike kinds. Apples and Oranges.

    In the west, public and private debt instruments are on-sold into markets. There they fall into the hands of plutocracy. The money type of the West behaves differently than that of China.

    China has a mid tier level of private banks, who in turn borrow from the larger state banks, and this mid-tier has done some damage by pushing housing prices. The state has pulled this back some in recent years by preventing loans.

    Bottom line: China has a debt based money system, but the debt instruments that spawn Chinese Yuans channel differently than in the West, and this channeling is a critical feature. China’s debts can be released to prevent polarization of society, because said debts are under political control. China’s debts are not held by a predatory (((plutocratic))) class that hates average citizens. Debt instruments created at public level i.e. state banks, specify how newly hypothecated Yuans are to be spent. Yuan path (channeling) is into the commons and industry. This type and channeling factor means that new Yuans are beneficial and improve the lot of all. It also means that Chinese leadership are doing their job, even if average Chinese don’t understand it.

    Money channeling and type is the critical feature of Industrial Capitalism. I’ve been arguing here that China has an Industrial Capitalist economy.

    Looking at things this way helps one see more clearly. The U.S. and West have already lost to China. The parasite (((finance class))) of the west won in WW2. WW1 and 2 was mostly an economic war of finance capitalism vs industrial capitalism, whereby industrial capitalism of Germany was attacked. Bolshevism was a creature of finance capital, and hence was on the side of the West in WW2.

    Democracy of the west is nothing more than state sponsored usury. The neo-liberal, neo-cohens and false economy of the predator class of the west is spent… it can cause chaos on world stage in a desperate bid for profit and control, but cannot summon millions of men and material of war against China. Today’s scenario will not unfold like in the days before WW2.

    Mencken, “Democracy is the pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance. No one in this world, so far as I know and I have researched the records for years, and employed agents to help me has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.”

    Unfortunately, the West is locked into a collective belief system that cannot end but in failure. There is no way U.S. especially can compete with a vampire squid wrapped around its face, and sucking away lifeblood of unearned income and rents. The squid causes inefficiencies, and hence purchasing power is reduced through squid rake-offs. These rake-offs are unseen, but they come in the form of high prices. I estimate it could be as high as 40% of the economy… this is losses and rake-offs causing high prices, a price-tax which funnels purchasing power to the predators.

    Hopefully, Russia escapes to a new Tsar or Byzantine-like King system, and then adopts some sort of Sovereign money control. Then western people will have an example of escape from head lock usurers have on their brain-space, polity and lives.

    http://www.sovereignmoney.eu

    • Replies: @GeeBee
  43. In the early 1970s David Rockerfeller sent his batman Kissinger over to China to open up the Chinese slave labor to the ZUS and then the deindustrialization of the ZUS began and every major ZUS corporation moved their factories to China, the bottom line is that modern China was made by the ZUS.

    The supposed rifts between the ZUS and China are total bullshit.

    • Replies: @Hiram of Tyre
  44. @eah

    Why would anyone care what ordinary Whites think of their country? Ordinary Whites are quite possibly on the lowest rung of the ladder now as they are like a very inefficient piece of machinery, that is to say they demand a lot and give very little in return due to advances in tech made by elite Whites – who are the one who run things along with elite Jews.

    Perhaps the mass 0f unthinking Whites do not bredudge China…but they ought to, their countries’ entire manufacturing base was destroyed when Western politicians shipped all the jobs there.

    • Replies: @eah
  45. @Jason Liu

    You are mistaken in thinking that America dislikes countries because of their lack of Liberal Democracy, America is more than willing to cosy up with the worst dictators and autocrats…as long as they are on the same side. The CIA have installed numerous dictators in Latin America.

    China simply threatens American hegemony, democracy is just an excuse used to justify aggression

    • Replies: @Blankaerd
  46. eah says:
    @Just passing through

    Why would anyone care what ordinary Whites think of their country?

    I presume 1) that’s the target audience for the video; after all, it’s on YouTube, where anyone and everyone can watch it, and 2) it’s why Carlton Meyer posted it here, i.e. so ordinary people would watch it, and so perhaps update their opinion/view of China.

    Some Americans are intelligent and mature enough to realize American politicians and bureaucrats are responsible for the trade legislation and policies that destroyed jobs in the US (also business executives who exploited the situation), and therefore they don’t begrudge the Chinese their economic success — apparently you are not among these intelligent and mature people.

    In deciding to read your comment, I was immediately reminded of why you’re on my IGNORE list.

    Idiot.

    • Replies: @Just passing through
  47. @Desert Fox

    In the early 1970s David Rockerfeller sent his batman Kissinger over to China to open up the Chinese slave labor to the ZUS and then the deindustrialization of the ZUS began and every major ZUS corporation moved their factories to China, the bottom line is that modern China was made by the ZUS.

    The supposed rifts between the ZUS and China are total bullshit.

    Precisely.

    They (the Rockefeller) didn’t have their hands deep in the Warren Commission cover-up of the Kennedy assassination for any reason.

    • Replies: @Desert Fox
  48. Mefobills says:
    @Agent76

    Lolbertarians like Schiff are a laugh riot. They get honorary Jew status for their wrong think.

    Here are some of his comments from your video that beggar belief:

    Bad thing for U.S. Imports (as Yuan goes up) as it lowers standard of living.

    Bad thing in the short term, but good in the long term as the U.S. moves toward Autarky, and begins to make things for its self, as any sovereign nation should.

    Interest rates in the U.S. will go up as Chinese creditors no longer lending money to Americans.

    This would be more typical Lol-bertarian hypnosis, as if you need to borrow or get money from foreign creditors. The U.S. doesn’t need to borrow from anybody, it already has an installed base of technology and capability. It especially doesn’t need to borrow its own dollars back from China, nor does it need Chinese debt or Yuans.

    And so we have to draw from our own savings pool.

    Any sovereign country can issue new money directly into the population… and presto you have a savings pool. Or, any sovereign country can release debts, and then the former credit as money is no longer recalled to destruction, and presto you have savings pool. Or, you can issue directly from treasury into industry, and presto you don’t need Chinese money to build industry.

    Lolbertarians get honorary Jew status for their distorted way of thinking.

    Savings are extremely shallow hence Federal Reserve has to monetize debt that Chinese and other nations want to buy.

    True enough, but Lol-bertarians are apologists for private money and private banks, of which the FED is a an example. Lolbertarians are the pot calling the kettle black.

    Please do yourself a favor and tune out lol-bertarians, they are honorary agents of (((mammon))).

    Schiff keeps talking about standard of living. A real country has its own money, and makes things for itself and cares about its people, and hence its standard of living will rise by dint of its own effort.

    The only time any country needs foreign “capital” is to buy things it cannot make for itself. And even then, borrowing has to be done carefully so new things it buys can increase productivity to pay for money interest – which points at foreign creditors.

    You go into debt to foreigners and you’ve lost sovereignty; a lolbertarian cannot understand these concepts. They are for free markets (no such thing) and free-dumb, and international movement of people in a border-less world.

    The nation-wrecker (((international cabal))) is very happy with their agent Schiff.

    • Agree: utu
  49. @Hiram of Tyre

    In regards to JFK’s assassination, please read the book JFK, the CIA and Vietnam by Col. L. Fletcher Prouty and Blood in the Water by Joan Mellen, both can be had on amazon.com.

    • Replies: @Hiram of Tyre
  50. @Lin

    Search Results
    Featured snippet from the web
    India: Gross domestic product (GDP) in current prices from 1984 to 2024 (in billion U.S. dollars)
    GDP in billion U.S. dollars
    2020* 3,202.18
    2019* 2,935.57
    2018 2,718.73
    2017 2,652.25
    37 more rows•Nov 6, 2019
    https://www.statista.com/www.statista.com › statistics › gross-domestic-product-gdp-in-india
    • GDP of India 1984-2024 | Statista

    The Elephant vs the Dragon.
    And the USA is the eagle.

    I think the mythical beast will overcome both the Eagle and the Elephant.

    • Replies: @Lin
    , @Lin
  51. @eah

    People make videos to inform, however my question was why should people from other countries really care what ordinary White people think? They are essentially irrelevant. Even if White people were to view China in a negative light, China would continue to do whatever it ashes to do and there is nothing these ordinary Whites can do about it. Caring about what ordinary White people think is like caring about what ordinary Bantus think.

    Also, ordinary White people know their own fat cats sold them out, but that doesn’t mean they don’t view China with anger because the intelligent ones know China was just another shithole country before treacherous executives shipped all the jobs there.

  52. Sean says:

    Linked to the essential statement.

    Harvard’s Graham Allison disagrees with Professor Mearsheimer that it is inevitable there will be at least cold or proxy war between China and America. But even Allison thinks the precedents are for it.

    China possesses a powerful deterrent but now presents no offensive threat.

    Funny how neither Nato or the Soviet Union, judging by their tens of thousands of tanks facing one another, seemed to believe that nuclear weapons were a deterrent. How does it go again, ‘the threat of an incredible action is not a credible deterrent. The Soviets probably always were capable of steamrolling across the Iron Curtain with their tanks and their almost 10:1 advantage in in tube artillery. Nukes are a deterrent to nuclear war. Yet such a Mexican Standoff leaves open the possibility of conventional war. The Kremlin knew it could not win the conflict fought across the globe against the world’s most powerful economy that would have inevitably followed a military conquest of Western Europe.

    The US will first try to slow down China’s growth, and see if it can out-compete it. There being so many Chinese their country exceeding the US seems inevitable. If American sits and waits China will have an economy too powerful (big and advanced ) to take on. The US will have India and Russia as allies as China becomes more threatening to its neighbours by its sheer size. That time is not yet, but unless the US suddenly begins to outgrow China, the US economic strategy fails and using military force becomes the only way.

  53. @Priss Factor

    Globally, China’s a net creditor. Think about it: have you ever heard of a Chinese bond?

    • Replies: @Antiwar7
  54. @shiny hand

    It is impossible for SARS and all other serious infectious diseases to claim many victims in a sterile, modernized country like China.

    • Replies: @Just passing through
  55. @Astuteobservor II

    Yup. I’d rather have my country run by corrupt engineers than by corrupt lawyers–any day!

  56. Good piece, after brief reading. The axiom–US “elites” have no grasp of global economic, military (especially military) and geopolitical balance. Even (still grossly inaccurate, albeit better than “nominal”) PPP GDP numbers do not reflect an appalling reality of the US “economy” which is monetized to the grotesque scale and is not simply smaller, it is much smaller in terms of REAL economy than economy of China. Remarkably, people who do have at least some grasp of the trends are SOME people in US military (possibly intelligence) and what I would call relatively fringe economists and analysts. The whole house of cards of US Dollar global financial system is just that–house of cards. The reason being that the main instrument sustaining this system–(mythology of) US military power can not sustain it, it simply has no resources (human, technological, intellectual etc.) to do so. This bluff was called few years ago, but many simply refused to face he facts–they will, it is inevitable. So, they better start buying real estate (I am sure they already did) somewhere in Southern Hemisphere or make arrangements for a nice upscale Psychiatric Ward with nice nurses and good drugs.

    • Replies: @John Arthur
  57. Lin says:
    @Rev. Spooner

    I understand the aspiration of the hindu nationalists to look forward to indian ascension to superpowerdom. India is a complicate country and is difficult to predict. Let me repeat what I’ve said here and there:
    1)The biggest problem in india is not economic growth rate. Massive un/under-employment is.
    (Indian govt unemployment figures are highly understated)
    2)The india elite grossly lack sense of prioritization of objectives.
    3)Indian society is excessively elitist.
    (I could add a few more, but lets stop here..)
    ……..
    The indian nationalists complain of the trade deficits with china. The imports from china range from cell phones to solar panels to pots and pans. Indian manufacturing wage sure is much lower than china’s (and china is still a developing country). Isn’t it baffling they can’t make cheaper pots and pans?

    • Replies: @Just passing through
  58. Lin says:
    @Rev. Spooner

    I think the mythical beast will overcome both the Eagle and the Elephant.

    China is still a developing country and has no intention to project power into every corners of the Earth. China hasn’t fought any war since 1979.
    Peace on Earth. Maranatha.

  59. I understood the con of the GDP almost 50 years ago, while in Europe. The cost of a pint of beer (approximately 2 bottles of US beer) in the UK was about 8 pence, with bottled beer being slightly more expensive. At the time, the pound was in the $2 range, so the cost of a pint was roughly 1/12 x 2 = 17 cents. Where could you buy a bottle of beer for 10 cents? The average wage in the UK at the time was 15 – 20 pounds a week, or $30 -$40, or less than half of what it was in the US. It was obvious, in the days of the gold standard, that if everything is priced in dollars, even those with lower wages in Britain were as well off as those in the US with higher wages.
    Scandinavia was different. The cost of everything was much higher, but the average wage was higher than the US, and the difference between the highest and the lowest earners was more compressed than the US. So, while it was more costly, the lower end wage earners had better purchasing power than in the US.
    Floating currency rates has only added to the illusion.

  60. Hodd says:

    Good article that misses out far more important points that are relevant.

    1. China is not an economy based on war, thus all the money wasted by the US on flying bricks like the F35, is invested in infrastructure. Roads, railways and city facilities in China make the US look like a third world country.

    2. There are 100 cities fitted out with a working 5G, each containing a population in excess of 10,000,000 which together with high employment make the US and Europe look like they are almost prehistoric. With these sort of cities, the US has already lost the race.

    3. Education in China is of paramount importance and the standard in essential science subjects is the best in the world. Education in the US, UK and Europe is primarily based upon obsolete politically correct policies being imposed on the indigenous peoples by their alien masters.

    There are many other things such as family morals based on loyalty, respect and common decency. Measuring life through monetary values is not the only or best criteria to use.

    Good article all the same.

  61. Although this is a well presented article, might I respectfully suggest that the author’s argument is too much a macro economic observation of China and one that does not reflect recent facts that call the assertion of continued Chinese economic supremacy very much into question.

    Although, the metrics the author presents do support his overall premise, of the major four points presented might I add the following very abridged counterpoints for initial discussion that are illustrative from the past six months:

    1.China has the world’s largest GDP in PPP terms and this has been true since November, 2014.
    True, but…..China is now in an economic slowdown that has seen GDP plummet from 14.2% in 2008, and has dropped every year for six years down to a current 6.15% in 2018. PBoC estimates that 2019 and 2020 will be below this number.

    2. China is the world’s number one exporter.

    True, but….as reported in Dec. Chinese exports to the US for 2019 were down 23% which is why MSM/Trump has touted the lowering of the trade deficit as well.

    3. China is the number two importer in the world with the second largest retail market and the largest e-retail market – the CIIE in Shanghai.

    True, but….Chinese consumer purchasing is down as shown by the continued drop in auto sales that fell 7.5% in 2019 and 6% in 2018. GM said that its sales were down 15% in China.

    4.China’s retail market is roughly equal to that of the U.S. and growing faster.

    True, but….consumer purchasing is dropping and the PBoC last month stepped in with several moves designed to inject more liquidity into the economy to juice the purchasing and GDP. PBoC just began, after four years, the first interest rate cuts.

    Although the author’s presentation is well done and substantiated, it is an article steeped in the past successes of China, not it’s current internal realities that show that this is another country soon to realize the truth about unsustainable debt.

    I did, however, enjoy the article. Cheers!! B.R-T.

    • Replies: @Mefobills
    , @John Arthur
  62. The economic factor is irrelevant. In time, the average “educated”American will be an expert in “climate change”, “political correctness”, “diversity”,”gender studies”, “equality”, etc, etc.
    The Chinese will have none of that, but highly educated people that are scientists, engineers,and experts in things that are actually real, and productive.

    Guess who’ll win?

    • Agree: Dannyboy
    • Replies: @GeeBee
  63. Mefobills says:
    @Hiram of Tyre

    It’s part of a long plan.

    Don’t confuse the maneuverings of Zion and “Debt Spreading” of London.

    They did maneuver China, especially with Opium wars. The “city” had imbalanced trade with China, especially in Silver, so their idea was to recall their money by hook or crook. In this case it was thrusting a drug dependency hook into the mouths of Chinese. And of course Jews were involved… the Sassoons. They are always involved when crime inc. is being done.

    China learned from that experience. Post Tianmen square they kept their state banks.

    While the US has been de-industrialized by the bankers of the City of London; China was industrialized

    The de-industrialization of America occured mostly post 1995, where “international capital” wanted to take wage arbitrage on Chinese labor. China helped the wall street/london gambit along by sweeping their communist era debts into the trash can, so they could meet the criteria, to then acquire trading, even MFN status.

    “In spite of the fierce opposition of the US treasury Department, on November 30 the IMF finally approved the inclusion of the yuan in the Special Drawing Rights, the currency basket created in 1969 to complement the official reserves of the members of the multilateral organization.

    By having Yuans in the “basket of currencies” then that lowers the relative power of dollar in world trade. Those who issue dollars (private banking), and their lackeys (U.S. Treasury) would not be for that, hence the opposition.

    China’s money is mostly sovereign, and under full government control through its 5 State Banks. Any private corporate banks within the system (middle and lower tier) ultimately are under state control. The private banks are not allowed to get froggy, and start stealing from the public weal.

    You cannot conflate IMF with China, as IMF is supranational while China operates in their national interests.

    • Replies: @Hiram of Tyre
  64. Mefobills says:
    @Brett Redmayne-Titley

    China, not it’s current internal realities that show that this is another country soon to realize the truth about unsustainable debt.

    China doesn’t have unsustainable debt… it is a laughable assertion made by brain dead economists trained in Neo-Liberal economics.

    China’s debt is sovereign, and held in their state banks. They can simply erase it at any time. China can also stimulate internal consumption anytime, they no longer need to maintain the export model.

    Further, China is acquiring new minerals resources assets and capability on the silk roads.

    China’s population is growing in capability as their human labor becomes more efficient, while simultaneously, their industrial plant and equipment is regenerated to new status regularly, and their commons are improved. All of the new rail roads and ports are visible testament.

    China is operating the former “american system of economy” of industrial capitalism.

    Meanwhile, american economist have become brain-washed dupes of neo-liberalism type economy (imported from ZOG London) and cannot see the forest for the trees. So, we have to suffer with comments about China’s unsustainable debt.

    Whistling past the graveyard is not a survival tactic. Seeing things for how they really are, is a survival tactic.

  65. @JohnPlywood

    I think you may he wrong on that. Although it is true Chinese cities are very clean, the more rural areas are not and I say this from experience. Wikipedia has 2% of the population practicing open defecation and one of the worst toilets I’ve ever seen was in China, it was a squat toilet with shit smeared across the floor and even the walls!

    I think bioweapons would claim a lot of casualties in China, a lot of the population still live in rural and dirty environments.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    , @Vidi
    , @Realist
  66. nsa says:

    The main trade dispute between China and the USA involves the opening of the Chinese service sector to “foreign financial services”…..a euphemism for the jew. The importing of actual Chinese goods is not a problem, as the jew is well represented with their middle men, wholesalers, and retail outlets getting a generous cut off every imported pair of crap flip flops, cheap sunglasses, and nike afro boots….so excessive importation from China is not a problem. Notice that in the recent partial “trade deal” with China, the crypto-jew Trumpstein and his merry band of real jooies (Munchkin, Krudlow, etc) have obtained a promise to allow a greater penetration of the Chinese domestic service sector by “foreign financial services” i.e. the jew. The idea of cream shooting 1.4 billion Wangs and Wongs with reverse mortgages, payday loans, 96 month car loans, home equity loans, ETFs, annuities, 18% credit cards, mutual funds, casinos, etc etc has the KKK (Kock Kutter Kult) thinking it just hit the motherload………the possibility it can dominate China the way it dominates a cowering subservient North America.

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  67. @Brett Redmayne-Titley

    China’s elites make *much* better foreign policy/demographic decisions than the US, which is why their country is far more secure than the US or the West.

    However, China’s economy is markedly slowing down as you had stated, but the growth slowdown is much more than you think.

    The US has been growing faster on a per-capita basis at PPP for the last 10 years, with the absolute gap between the US on a per capita basis and China on a per capita basis growing. The US’s per capita GDP is more bigger than China’s than it was in 1990.
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=US-CN
    Here are chained dollars:
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD?locations=CN-US

    When you consider the extremely dysfunctional Black population, this result becomes even more astonishing. The gap between the per capita GDP of American Whites and Han Chinese is massively larger than the current gap between all Americans and all Chinese.

    The problem is that America’s economy is by far the best of any big country in the world, but its elites are *extremely* greedy and have been hording all the money for themselves, and have been wasting it on stupid and silly wars, and pocketing much of American money for themselves.

    • Replies: @last straw
    , @last straw
  68. @Lin

    India is also very multi-ethnic so change happens very slow due to democracy and squabbling, if it even happens at all. I do think the Modi government are trying to unite the Hindus and Sikhs into one identity though at the expense of Muslims.

    Chinese economy seems to be very centralised and smooth running. Indian economy is very informal and everything is a cottage industry, you won’t see Wal-Mart type stores in India except in some major cities. This in my view is good from a cultural standpoint as there still exists that sense of community that has ceased to exist in the West due to MNCs moving in and destroying uniqueness.

    The biggest problem India has is the caste system IMO, there is no meritocracy and there is instead a affirmative action system that allocates government jobs and university places in different proportions to different castes based on the demographics of that particular state. In some cases as many as 70% of places can be reserved for those deemed to be “backwards caste”, think the American university system but in steroids, this results in brain drain as the people who can afford to emigrate do so, and those that can’t afford to do so are kind of screwed.

    The US also seems to be using India as some sort of pawn to balance of China, the US used to be very chummy with Pakistan, even sending a carrier group to to the Bay of Bengal in support of the Pakistanis during the 1971 War. Pakistan has good relations with China even back then but the latter was small potatoes and nobody saw it as a threat. But since then, China has grown and so too has Sino-Pakistani relations with things like CPEC. US is now backing India and shunning Pakistan.

    Pakistanis saw they were getting a better deal with China who were actually building their country IL as opposed to America who were just causing wars to sell weapons to them, the CIA can almost certainly he blames for Pakistan being a hotbed of Islamic terror (much more so than Iran)

    India isn’t really a nation state in the traditional sense and it is a wonder it hasn’t balknanised in its 72 years of existence. I do wonder if it would be good for them to enter China’s orbit though.

    • Agree: John Arthur
  69. JUSA says:
    @TG

    Whatever else one thinks about all of this, remember that Henry Kissinger was a traitor to his country.

    Not if you realized his country is not the USA.

  70. GeeBee says:
    @Mefobills

    Mefobills (the very name you choose warms my heart) you are on a roll. I take it you have experience in the world of finance/economics? At all events, your words cut through the dense fog of obfuscation that surrounds Western polity and which obscures what ought to be obvious. I refer not just to this post which I reply to, but several others of yours in this same article. Keep up the good work!

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @onebornfree
    , @Mefobills
  71. JUSA says:
    @Lin

    Multinationals that care more about profit than country are the biggest culprits in bringing in mass immigration from the third world. I won’t shed a tear if they all decide to move out of the country. Google, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, all could GTFO for all I care. Goodbye and good riddance. Move the hell out of the US and stop selling their shite in the US. If you want to sell in the US, not just make it in the US, but hire US citizens. Let’s see which market they can’t afford to lose more, US or China.

  72. Moi says:
    @Anonymous

    “I find it odd how passionately White Americans defend “their” country, considering it is dominated by Jews and blacks and they are very much second class citizens in it and becoming ever more so year on year.”

    Yeah, that is stupid, but then we are a stupid, ignorant, rude and loutish people.

  73. Am I being naive to think a culture which hasn’t invented any fundamental technologies is in no position to supplant the culture which invented basically everything?

    • Replies: @Astuteobservor II
  74. GeeBee says:
    @Common sense Giuseppe

    ‘In time, the average “educated”American will be an expert in “climate change”, “political correctness”, “diversity”,”gender studies”, “equality”, etc, etc.’

    You forgot the ‘holyhoax’.

    • Agree: Dannyboy
  75. @Lin

    Lin,

    You left out the previous sentence and the first word OF the sentence you quoted.

    Let’s take a hypothetical example to understand this. Suppose China produced 127 trillion yuan’s worth of goods and services in 2017. ”

    Please read weller… ;^)

  76. onebornfree says: • Website
    @GeeBee

    You are that easily fooled by this particular pseudo-intellectuals, “we need more government interference in the economy”, commie apologizing, never ending line of statist B.S.?
    Well, shame on you! 🤮

    “Regards” onebornfree

    • LOL: bluedog
  77. @Rabbi Zaius

    This was a very stupid comment.

    • Disagree: Jett Rucker
  78. @nsa

    This is a real threat. How the Chinese govt handles this will determine their future.

    This is basically parasites attempting to latch onto a new host.

    • Agree: Mefobills
  79. Anon[279] • Disclaimer says:
    @Elementarium

    China’s most significant advantage in becoming an economic powerhouse is that it doesn’t have parasitic Jews bleeding it to death.

    China has its own parasitic elites who are every bit as ruthless and unscrupulous as the Jews, if not more so. The only difference is they don’t also hunger for power like the Jews. Rest assure though that the damage they inflict on China is just as great. They have been stealing and plundering from their own people for two decades. Many are now escaping to greener pastures, i.e. the West, with their ill gotten gains, for “freedom” (before they get thrown in jail for corruption) and “clean air”, even though it was them who fouled up the air and the rivers with their highly polluting factories to begin with, or accept bribes for factory owners to do so.

    • Agree: Jett Rucker
  80. Mefobills says:
    @GeeBee

    Gee bee, I was in the vanguard of having to train Chinese our jobs. The first American technology company to go to China. I observed the economics first hand and subsequent destruction of American industry. Even with my warnings company management continued on the destructive path. Management and finance were in the grip of false constructs making them malfunction. Mostly it was trained incompetence learned in college.

    So I took on the task of learning the dismal profession in order to understand. It is engineers like Soddy and Douglas that get to the economic truth of things.

    The dismal profession is aptly named. Usury funds a lot of deception.

  81. Suvorov says:

    Hillary Clinton gave China access to her email server that held everything she did, State Department, all the Committees, all her private affairs with the Clinton Foundation.

    https://truepundit.com/fbi-lisa-page-dimes-out-top-fbi-officials-during-classified-house-testimony-bureau-bosses-covered-up-evidence-china-hacked-hillarys-top-secret-emails/

    The FBI knew, and they did nothing.

    https://dailycaller.com/2018/07/12/ig-clinton-foreign-emails/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=site-share

    James Clapper, Peter Strozk, Christopher Wray, the entire Swamp was complicit. They knew, and did nothing. The FBI did nothing. The DOJ did nothing. Your CIA did nothing. How much money were they receiving from China?

    Yet you blame Russia and hate Russians.

    The Chinese-owned company, based in Washington, D.C., reportedly inserted code into Clinton’s email server, located in upstate New York, that would send the company virtually all her emails in real-time, The Daily Caller reported Monday. This allegedly took place throughout her tenure as Secretary of State, until 2013.

    Yet you blame Russia for your problems.

    Maybe the United States really could be great again, if it stopped the hurricane of betrayal, and political, economic and military treason that have been cutting it to pieces for decades.

    Maybe then Russia and America could contain China.

    They cheat just as much in Russian universities, and the same class of people turn a blind eye.

  82. @John Arthur

    The US has been growing faster on a per-capita basis at PPP for the last 10 years, with the absolute gap between the US on a per capita basis and China on a per capita basis growing.

    Maybe that reflects the fact that China was a capital-intensive economy in the past 10 years. The share of infrastructure-building was probably disproportionately high during that period. Once China transforms into a consumer economy, the growth of per capita income and personal consumption will start to accelerate.

    • Replies: @John Arthur
  83. @John Arthur

    The gap between the per capita GDP of American Whites and Han Chinese is massively larger than the current gap between all Americans and all Chinese.

    The question is, how long that gap will last? The relative growth of China’s per capita PPP seems to be faster in recent years. For example, the per capita GDP of China was approximately 19% of America’s in 2010. In 2018, it was about 29%. If you look farther, in 1990, the per capita PPP of China was only about 4% of America’s.

    • Replies: @John Arthur
  84. @last straw

    Last-Straw,
    Perhaps this could be the case. I can see it happening. However, it is far easier to grow in the beginning stages of a country’s development than in the latter stages. This is due to the fact that most innovation/technology is transferred. China, barring major reform, isn’t going to grow any faster than this, and is likely to slow down due to their old age.

    Of course, nothing is preventable, so take this analysis with some skepticism, but my point was that if you judge the economic profile of China and the US over the last decade, the US has done better. Of course, given the demographic stupidity of the US and the fiscal irresponsibility of the government, this may very well end in the future.

  85. @Andrei Martyanov

    I usually agree with the analysis of some China watchers on this website, including GodFree Roberts, but disagree strongly with this.

    Essentially, your argument is that the purchasing power of the US is inflated, and is based on fake worth, and soon will dissipate. Not only that, but that the real economy of the US is far lower than what is currently estimated.

    Now if what you are saying is true, then the American people received trillions of dollars worth of consumer goods from China, while giving them meaningless dollar bills in return, while their actual real purchasing power is dramatically lower, in what is the biggest scam in world History. Why would those sensible Chinese elites allow for this to happen?

    Not only that, given that a dramatically lower real economy, it would imply that Americans are receiving extreme amount of value for little input, making them the most productive people on the entire planet.

    The reality is that America’s economy is really $21 trillion, and China’s economy is $27 trillion. China is growing faster than America, and has a good chance of making the world bipolar from the American dominated unipolar world.

    But claiming that America is on the verge of a massive collapse is highly doubtable. Stagnation like Japan is plausable, which had an even greater deindustralization and a *vastly* higher debt-to-GDP ratio than the US, but collapse is just a silly fantasy in my opinion.

    • Replies: @Andrei Martyanov
    , @Erebus
  86. @last straw

    The Chinese certainly have the resources and capabilities to close the gap.

    However, I doubt this. It is easier to grow from the bottom in absolute terms than it is to grow for the top, so it is easy for countries like China to catch up in relative terms.

    It has always been easy for countries to close the relative gap, Solow’s curve is what they call that phenomenon.

    Given China’s vastly better demographic picture than the US, if they aren’t going to close the absolute gap now, then I don’t think they will anytime soon, since their picture is rapidly degrading.

  87. Anon[328] • Disclaimer says:
    @Paul holland

    Tremendous amounts of money are lost in useless investments in the MILITARY INDUSTRIAL complex. Meanwhile, the education system is kept obsolete, power plants leaking tritium stay unrepaired, infrastructure, roads, bridges, dams are crumbling.

    Are the following ”services” among those ”exported” by the US: Bombing a country or assassinating a general (an act of war), threatening countries with military invasions, gross intimidation through sanctions? Are these among the services exported by the US?

  88. Yet another China-worshiping article.

    The extent to which any economy is built on theft, lies and distortions, is in inverse proportion to how long that economy will last before it crashes and burns. It’s also never obvious what kind of thing will light off the fuse. Since it’s almost impossible to determine the percentage of truth from the lies, it’s always a surprise when the whole thing collapses.

    My China prediction: expect crash-and-burn within the next ten years, instigated by some non-economic event. If the CCP survives, China will be a greatly diminished “world power”.

  89. @John Arthur

    The reality is that America’s economy is really $21 trillion

    The reality of American “economy” is 75%+ of FIRE (that is Service Economy producing zero real value) and is dwarfed by China’s manufacturing capacity. It is easier to count fields in which the United States retains at least some leadership and expertise than where it fell dramatically behind. Here is a bit of “insight” for you.

    Inadequate U.S. Skilled Labor Supply

    The U.S. machine tools sector lacks assured access to a sufficiently large pool of skilled labor. Many skilled workers are exiting the workforce due to age, and there are too few technical educational programs to train those who could take their place. Without concerted action that provides both a ready workforce and a continuously-charged pipeline of new employees, the U.S. will not be able to maintain the large, vibrant, and diverse machine tools sector needed to produce the required number and types of products when needed. Market Forces Decreasing Domestic Capabilities The U.S. machine tools sector has been shrinking since at least the 1980s due to a number of primary and contributing factors with the U.S. standing dropping significantly since 2000. In 2015, China’s global machine tool production skyrocketed to $24.7B accounting for 28% of global production, while the U.S. accounted for only $4.6B, after China, Japan, Germany, Italy, and South Korea. According to the U.S. Census Bureau data, in 2015 there were 1,028 machine tool firms employing 27,919 people.

    I suggest you get acquainted with this Interagency Report to POTUS.

    https://media.defense.gov/2018/Oct/05/2002048904/-1/-1/1/ASSESSING-AND-STRENGTHENING-THE-MANUFACTURING-AND-DEFENSE-INDUSTRIAL-BASE-AND-SUPPLY-CHAIN-RESILIENCY.PDF

    If you didn’t do it yet, it is a good time to start–it is a good primer for handling cognitive dissonance. I am sure you never heard the news that the United States doesn’t have actual commercial shipbuilding industry, while China has a gigantic one. Hell, Russia’s commercial shipbuilding makes the US look like amateurs. I am sure you heard of Boeing and GE and how they are still being killed. Other than that–sure, everything is peachy. I am sure armies of US lawyers, literary critics, insurance agents, realtors and car dealers are hard at work developing plan for US economic revival.

    • Agree: Biff
    • Thanks: Miro23
  90. Mefobills says:

    Yet another China-worshiping article.

    The extent to which any economy is built on theft, lies and distortions, is in inverse proportion to how long that economy will last before it crashes and burns.

    The sub-title of Walsh’s article is “Ignorance or Denial by the U.S. Poses Grave Dangers”

    I contend that American’s (I’m one) are in deep Denial, or are Ignorant. It’s embarrassing actually to be surrounded by hypnotized and degraded people. But, then again, if all you ever hear is bad narrative, then you will not know any better. Garbage in and Garbage out. Humans are little different than computers, unless they get new programming. Hollywood and the owned media have done quite a number on American brain-space, and by extension, the Western World. Thanks Jews.

    America, mostly led by Wall Street, sold America’s patrimony for wage arbitrage. Patrimony comes from the past, and includes intellectual property and crown jewels of a nation state – including hard won know how. Wage arbitrage is the delta between wages.

    Lifting of industry from America (and other Western Countries) was done by sneaky underhanded methods by the (((usual suspects)) who think that only prices matter.

    American industry was attacked by the finance class with green mail techniques, shorts, and outright coercion, to go to China and get the China price. Also, there was skiff and skim paid as bribes to dock workers and retail. China goods would be put on the shelf at retail eye-level, to then displace existing American main-street labor. (Labor makes goods as prices).

    I contend that American economy is based on lies, thefts, and distortion. I actually don’t contend – I know. It is a reality that most American’s don’t want to face up to and look at squarely.

    Soy boys and women are emotionally driven, and they especially don’t want to square up to facts on the ground.

    Any and all civilizations have hierarchy, and western hierarchical elites are hidden. Hidden finance elites are controlling things; NOT POLITICAL ELITES working for the people. Demon-ocracy politicians are no more than sock puppets.

    China by contrast, has a political class that is firmly in charge. This political class uses poling and data for feedback rather than votes. China’s political class is working for its people. Deal with it.

    China uses a superior type of money that doesn’t “take” for its right to exist, and this in turn means that China is PERMANENTLY EFFICIENT. If a nations money siphons off to a predatory group, then prices must go up. The American worker is carrying a parasite in his brain and on his back.

    With the rake-off that predator finance class is taking on U.S labor, as compared to China’s labor being improved year on year, then it is a foregone conclusion: China wins

    The patrimony that was sold off by Wall Street, was sold off for pennies. The hard won past was sold for arbitrage today. The arbitrage funneled into wall street, pushing 401Ks, and making Wall Street as heroes… for a time. But, the future came and now main street is Zeroes, as they have lost any potential gains had wall street off-shoring gambit never happened.

    Economics… especially neo-liberal false economy does not codify time. The equal sign is not up to the challenge, so unlike swaps across the equal sign is rampant. Loss of Patrimony was a tremendous loss, a generational loss.

    In addition, infinity immigration of brown people from turd world causes wage depression, causes economic insecurity, and causes border/cultural insecurity. American’s vote against this, yet it persists. Do you need any more proof that the political class does not work for you?

    These insecurities do not have a monetary price. Patrimony did not have a monetary price. You cannot have a cohesive nation state, when giant hoaxes of this kind are on-going, all under the guise that it is good economics, when the opposite is true. It is only good for a “class” of people, everybody else has a hidden hand deep in their pocket squeezing away at their testicles.

    The gift economy, or non-monetized economy in China is NOT CALCULATED IN GDP numbers. But, we can be sure that it is much larger than in U.S., which has been almost entirely monetized by finance class. U.S. suckers only think in terms of dollars now, as their brain space has been colonized. This then forecloses on other aspects of what it is to be a human. American degradation will continue because the underlying usury system of the West, has not been replaced.

    Money prices are not the be-all and end-all for economic health. Use your eyes and don’t believe false narratives spewing from Teevee and know-nothing paid for pundits. China is on the rise, and U.S. is on the decline. There is no making America great again, if all economic gains channel through finance plutocracy, and most of U.S economy is fake finance engineering, which in turn is another form of usury. Wall Street is not the real economy.

    Boeing is a perfect analogy of U.S. today. Imported low value Indian labor writing code for the MCAS system. Boeing executives pushing their stock options with new bank credit, but not investing in new plant and equipment (replace the 737 rather than re-engine). Move headquarters away from Seattle, and then give instructions from the remote location, and from on high. Finance makes decisions based on EBITDA, as if earnings before interest taxes and depreciation are the only metric that matters.

    This kind of giant hoaxing can only be done with usury flows out of finance, because anything that is anti-logos is unnatural, and unnatural must be funded to exist.

    • Replies: @Biff
    , @Erebus
  91. niceland says:

    Why would China worry about ‘debt’? It’s an internal matter, mostly by state run banks under the control of the government. As long as the foreign account is in order they can do what they want with ‘debt’. It’s just fiction, internal bookkeeping, can be created and cancelled at will IF you have the power to do so. And the Chinese .gov has that power. This is something western financial pundits don’t seem to understand.

    Commenter Mefobills is spot on in his analysis.

    • Agree: Ron Unz
  92. Biff says:
    @Mefobills

    Well done sir. Especially this:

    Boeing is a perfect analogy of U.S. today. Imported low value Indian labor writing code for the MCAS system. Boeing executives pushing their stock options with new bank credit, but not investing in new plant and equipment (replace the 737 rather than re-engine). Move headquarters away from Seattle, and then give instructions from the remote location, and from on high. Finance makes decisions based on EBITDA, as if earnings before interest taxes and depreciation are the only metric that matters.

  93. Smith says:

    Only failure and civil war can wake the US up.

    China will fall when they are at the top, just like what US is now.

    • Replies: @HallParvey
  94. Erebus says:
    @John Arthur

    The reality is that America’s economy is really $21 trillion…

    The reality is that GDP is a tally of transactions, and transactions do not create wealth. They at best reflect an activity which may or may not have produced wealth. Wealth, of course is measured in things, and if the activity didn’t produce, or help produce some thing, it added not a jot to wealth.

    … claiming that America is on the verge of a massive collapse is highly doubtable… a silly fantasy in my opinion.

    I too doubt that a massive collapse is likely, so long as certain conditions prevail.

    Principal amongst these is the USD’s ability to maintain its reserve currency role. Should that falter in an uncontrolled fashion, the fact that there is a vastly greater amount of USDs held internationally than is held domestically would mean that a flood of USDs would rush home to buy whatever physical assets it can as its international utility collapses.

    That puts hyper-inflation on the menu, and the only way to counter it would be to put currency controls in place and let the international USDs die as orphans. Either way, an internal “massive collapse” will ensue. Unable to buy components in the international market, America’s remaining factories (in reality, just assembly plants) would close in days. Inability to buy energy (oil, gas & electricity) internationally, would further result in a massive lowering of economic activity as energy prices would skyrocket and shortages ensue.

    How far are we away from the USD losing its reserve status? Well, it’s being discussed at the highest levels of the IMF and Central Banks have been told to prepare for a post-USD world. In fact, Mark Carney, head of the Bank of England made a speech on that very topic recently at Jackson Hole. I suggest you look into it.

    If the people who run the world’s reserve system think the USD’s demise as the world’s reserve currency is inevitable, and are talking about it publicly it’s not only inevitable but quite likely imminent.

    Be that as it may, the USD’s demise is certainly not a “silly fantasy”, and so neither is the “massive collapse” that will inevitably follow.

    • Agree: Mefobills
    • Replies: @Biff
    , @Smith
    , @John Arthur
    , @Miro23
  95. Erebus says:
    @Mefobills

    Great series of posts Mefobills. I would’ve liked to have typed them myself.

  96. Biff says:
    @Erebus

    Principal amongst these is the USD’s ability to maintain its reserve currency role. Should that falter in an uncontrolled fashion, the fact that there is a vastly greater amount of USDs held internationally than is held domestically would mean that a flood of USDs

    Another analogy for it is writing a series of IOU’s or checks for people to trade with, and then one day everybody at once wants to cash their checks, and BAM! You’re holding the bag.

    Money = Debt = Money = Debt = Money = Debt

    “We’re giving you your debt back – good luck.”

  97. Smith says:
    @Erebus

    Ah, Erebus, the usual chink shill.

    You would have a point if the USA and the America continent itself isn’t blessed up by having huge resources.

    Unlike Russia and China who are selling resources, they are buying resources with money (i.e. paper) so they can stock their own. Money i.e. paper can be propped up simply by trust and violence.

    America collapse will not be about money or resources, it will be about the death of american society and an ethnic conflict/civil war. And that would lead to a rebirth with true nationalists taking charge.

    • Troll: Blinky Bill, d dan
    • Replies: @Erebus
  98. Erebus says:
    @Smith

    You would have a point if the USA and the America continent itself isn’t blessed up by having huge resources.

    It had a great deal more resources in 1920. In fact, the remaining resources are high hanging fruit. Difficult and expensive to extract, and in some cases also severely depleted. The easily extracted resources are gone, and the almost free energy available then that drove America’s industrialization is also gone.

    How long did it take to start using 1920’s resources at the present rate? Hint: 4 generations
    Doubtless America will recover, but how long will it take to start using what’s left at the present rate this time?
    One generation?
    Two?
    Three?
    What happens in the interim?

    Hint: It’s called “collapse”.

    • Replies: @Smith
  99. Blankaerd says:
    @Just passing through

    The US is committed to liberalism, whether it’s autocratic or democratic liberalism it does not really matter. The dictators they supported – despite often being called fascists – have invariably been economically liberal. Dictators like Pinochet and Franco didn’t involve themselves much in the economies of their countries and opened it up to foreign (usually American back in the day) influence. They usually left the economies to technocrats to run. That’s why Spain transitioned so smoothly into a liberal democracy after Franco died, because the technocrats already planted the roots of the poison that is liberalism.

    It’s also the reason why the US tolerated their presence even if they were socially conservative like Franco was.

  100. Smith says:
    @Erebus

    America has a shitton of oil, coal, minerals and gas available in both land and nearby sea (Texas, Canada, Alaska), that’s not counting the treasure troves in South America.

    The collapse can happen, and will happen if the course is not changed. But America will not stay lazy for long, because if not americans harvesting these resources, other people will cross the sea to do that.

    Also, no, the resources in America are barely used, as said, because America prefers to BUY resources with money instead.

  101. @Erebus

    Erebus,
    I agree that the USD may lose its reserve status at some point, though the chances are far less than people on this site generally think.

    However, I am not convinced that that would lead to a collapse or even enduring issues for the US. There are plenty of countries that have had collapses in their currency and some had stagnation, and some had recession, but none of them had collapse. Venezuela is getting close, but that is due to US sanctions and nationalization of industry not collapse in Venezuelan currency.

    I agree that Chinese elites are more meritocratic than US elites and far more competent, but the reality is that at worse the US will stagnate. There is a chance of collapse, but it is no more than that of Chinas or Russias. Every developed country has those tail end risks.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Erebus
  102. @Godfree Roberts

    Off topic.

    Haven’t seen an article from you lately sir. I much enjoyed the Toyota factory comparison made in your https://www.unz.com/article/trade-war-iii/ article. Do you have any more of such gems?

    Best.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  103. @TG

    Yes Mr. Kissinger was not registered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA).

  104. A123 says:
    @John Arthur

    the USD may lose its reserve status at some point, though the chances are far less than people on this site generally think. … However, I am not convinced that that would lead to a collapse or even enduring issues for the US.

    What almost everyone misses is that reserve currency status is a penalty. The USD has a premium over its utility in trade. The Reserve Premium effectively:

    — Subsidizes every import
    — Penalizes every export

    A substantial number of real jobs in manufacturing would be *created* by ending the USD reserve premium.

    PEACE 😇

    • Replies: @John Arthur
  105. @Hiram of Tyre

    “In mid-1913 the United Kingdom became the first country to promote the use of the yuan in Europe. Germany, France, Switzerland and Luxembourg entered the competition through the installation of OCB to facilitate the use of the «people’s currency» (‘renminbi’). ”
    Prescience?

  106. @A123

    Exactly. Some other form of equilibrium would be achieved.

    • LOL: d dan
  107. @Just passing through

    Most of the population don’t live in rural China and density is much lower, so communicable diseases don’t spread as quickly. The overwhelming density of urban centers is one of the major challenges, in fact, but it is also one of the easier places to control disease.

  108. Miro23 says:
    @Erebus

    The reality is that GDP is a tally of transactions, and transactions do not create wealth. They at best reflect an activity which may or may not have produced wealth.

    You’ve got a point there. If all Americas insurance companies disappeared overnight , would it be the end of the world? Or would a sick person manage to find a doctor and pay them?

    Equally, the overnight disappearance of all US lawyers wouldn’t be all bad. Many less court cases and more informal settlements.

  109. @Smith

    China will fall when they are at the top, just like what US is now.

    No. They have one big advantage. Their people. They are susceptible to outside political pie in the sky influence, but they seem to have the ability to recover from such deviancy.

    • Replies: @Smith
  110. Smith says:
    @HallParvey

    Lol, you don’t know chinks and their deviancy.

    There is a reason they got humiliated by barbarians all over history.

    The average chinese dynasty has an expired date of 200 years at best.

    • Troll: d dan
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  111. @Smith

    Your understanding of history, like your grasp of numbers, is extraordinarily poor. China “lost” twice to barbarians – the first time after an incredibly long war with Mongols and Jurchens, the same Mongols who essentially curbstomped everyone else. And that lasted a very short period of time before the Chinese restored themselves under the Ming.

    The Ming itself would last almost three hundred years, fighting pretty much endlessly during the period, and ultimately collapse not because of any special “deviancy” but typical bureaucratic corruption and inefficiencies which allowed the Manchu to prevail, after internal revolts had weakened the Ming.

    As for being “humiliated”, the Chinese actually tamed the Tarim Basin, wiped out the Xiongnu, essentially exterminated the Mongol identity, and gradually overtook lands once occupied by the steppe barbarians. The size didn’t come from nowhere, you know.

    But your ignorance and incapability is a blessing in many ways, I suppose.

    • Replies: @Smith
  112. Erebus says:
    @John Arthur

    I agree that the USD may lose its reserve status at some point

    How mealy mouthed can you get? Of course it will. No reserve currency lasted forever. “Forever” is a very long time

    The question here is whether the word “imminent” can be applied to America’s collapse. To me, in the case of currency collapses, “imminent” means within the next 2 business cycles. The White Papers published by the IMF and speeches of Central Bankers indicate that they so too. How would you argue against them?

    There are plenty of countries that have had collapses in their currency and some had stagnation, and some had recession, but none of them had collapse.

    Oh? You mean Weimar Republic? Perhaps Zimbabwe? I’d call them collapses. What would you call them?

    • Replies: @John Arthur
  113. @Erebus

    Well I am not suggesting that US power is enduring. I am just saying that the notion of a collapse is far exaggerated, and I expect a soft crash of the dollar, which is what I was implying. Two business cycles leading to a collapse of the dollar is possible, and certainly in the realm of possibility, but it won’t lead to a collapse of the US.

    With respect to the Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe, one country was military defeated and forced to accept horrid edicts, with most of its prime age population dead or infirmed, and Zimbabwe got rid of their entire smart fraction, and literally slaughtered their economically successful people. The US has serious issues, but nothing like those, which are sheer existential issues. They didn’t collapse because their currency lost power…

    Look I agree with the notion of an ascendant China and a stagnating US. But the notion of collapse is just a stupid fantasy. If Japan, which had a far worse deindustrialization and a debt to GDP ratio far worse than the US didn’t collapse, then America isn’t going to. Countries aren’t bitcoin, they dont collapse out of the blue. That has never happened in modern history.

    Btw none of those papers indicate a US collapse, so none of it proves your point. Indeed the IMF estimates that America’s GDP per capita will continue to grow faster than Chinas and for the gap between the two countries to grow… The same people who you cited believe exactly what I say.

    All they say is given the fact that US makes an decreasing share of the world population and economy, there is a reasonable chance for the sheer power of the dollar to fade, especially with China aggregate GDP increasing.

    • Replies: @John Arthur
    , @Erebus
  114. @John Arthur

    One more thing, you should check out this chart by the World Bank and the IMF, which indicates that the US has increased the gap between itself and China in per capita terms over the last 20 years, while you and everyone had been crowing about America’s complete shadowing by China:
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=US-CN

    If you check the IMF’s estimates for the future, the same people that wrote your papers estimate the US to continue to increase its gap with respect to China.

    Since the US is only 4% of the world population, of course its dollar isn’t going to hold sway forever. The same is true for Singapore’s currency, which only enjoys middling power, yet Singapore is the most succesful and wealthiest country in the world on a per capita basis. No collapse there either.

    You guys are confusing a 105 IQ country having moderate success in getting to middle income, when many countries with lower IQs attaining far higher heights, and saying this is the result of 4-D chess. You guys have taken China’s growth from going from below Africa’s level of standards to livable, extrapolated the growth rates, and assumed that China will blow past all the developed countries in the world. It just looks ridiculous quite frankly.

    Just as the mainstream media are fanatic Chinese bears, you guys are fanatic Chinese bulls. I think China will become the dominant economic power, but the US isn’t going to collapse or any of that nonsense. Nor will China blow past US standards of living, though it might, given another 50 years, catch up and suprass the US in per capita terms, anything is possible.

    Remember, the US system of governance has allowed it to live at the technological frontier for its entire existance, whereas China has been so improvished, it has been on a Malthusian edge for 2000 years. I wouldn’t count the US out anytime soon.

    • LOL: d dan, Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @Vidi
  115. Vidi says:
    @Just passing through

    As with nearly everything in China, the important question is, When?

    If you don’t specify a date for when you saw a thing you didn’t like, then I’ll assume that what you saw was the old, dirt poor China.

  116. Alden says:
    @Just passing through

    Don’t forget Richard Blum, Dianne Feinstein’s husband who was negotiating with Chinese as early as the mid 19 sixties. I’m sure there were plenty more like him.

  117. Mefobills says:
    @Astuteobservor II

    Isn’t that just a pipe dream? As automation is right around the corner.

    Easy enough: Use a Mefobill like device if you want to direct credit at industry. Bills are three parties, and specify the payer the payee and drawee.

    (Schacht used Mefobills and Oeffa bills in Germany starting in 33-34 to do the very thing I state above. But you know- we cannot study National Socialism because of Nazi’s and other hypnosis.)

    Basically, you create new purchasing power and point it at industry, then examine the bills to make sure new goods and services are produced. If new goods and services were produced, then the bill is allowed to be discounted. Discounting is a fancy word for redeeming.

    Somehow, I find myself as one of the few people alive with answers on how to monetize the future? Why is that? I’m not bragging – it is more of a sad commentary about how ignorant people are with regards to money.. and the ignorance extends to those who should know better.

    Once you have built out your industrial infrastructure, then you use Douglas Social Credit to account for robotic and automated production.

    In this way, you end up with first class infrastructure, a trained population, and money in hands of said population to buy the product of automated and skilled labor production.

    There has always been a gap between goods as prices, and the ability of labor to buy their output.

    We (humans) have known about gap theory since the interwar years. Usury pays for deception, so economists are not taught reality. They have trained ignorance, and hence cannot answer sophisticated questions like yours.

    If you get both fiscal and monetary policy correct, there is no need to worry about an automated future.

    The bad: Neoliberal plutocracy makes its nut by usury, and they have no intention of letting go of their money control. Likely it will take force to pry their fingers off of the levers of power.

    The tree of liberty needs watering.

    • Agree: bluedog
  118. One more thing, you should check out this chart by the World Bank and the IMF, which indicates that the US has increased the gap between itself and China in per capita terms over the last 20 years, while you and everyone had been crowing about America’s complete shadowing by China:
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=US-CN

    If you check the IMF’s estimates for the future, the same people that wrote your papers estimate the US to continue to increase its gap with respect to China.

    That chart is quite misleading. Go to Bloomberg, and trace the lines in the diagram labeled “Most Chinese people are still much poorer than the average American”, then you will clearly see how China is closing the per capita GDP gap with the U.S. Notice that the diagram at Bloomberg is virtually identical to the chart to which you linked, except it shows the ratio of American per capita GDP to Chinese per capita GDP.

    I’m not sure which IMF estimate you are referring to, because as I pointed out above, it seems to me that China is inexorably closing the per capita GDP gap with the U.S.

    I don’t think China will blow past anyone. But it won’t stop growing at 5-6% a year anytime soon either.

    Remember, the US system of governance has allowed it to live at the technological frontier for its entire existance, whereas China has been so improvished, it has been on a Malthusian edge for 2000 years. I wouldn’t count the US out anytime soon.

    The West has been on the forefront of science and technology in the past two hundred and fifty years. The U.S. was established by Europeans. China did not have such luck. On the other hand, if China barely survived for two thousand years, it would be a little bit hard to imagine how China managed to be the world’s longest continuous civilization. Two hundred fifty years is a relative short period in Chinese history, and its stagnation during this period seems to have been an abnormality. I think China will catch up the West and restore its historic norm in the next 30-50 years.

  119. denk says:
    @Anon

    A trade deal with China is the last thing the US needs. We need a complete decoupling from China

    The Chinese didnt force uncle sham at gun point to invest,
    ITS THE US that offered to ‘couple’ ,
    its your right to de-couple any time you wish.

    But what you are doing is to force a global de-coupling from China,

    The trade war is designed to trigger a flight of foreign industries out of China, which’s already happening.

    The main thrust tho, is to nip ‘Made in China 2030‘ in the bud.

    I heard [[[they]]] are mulling to amend the ‘25% made in USA law’ to forbid any country selling eqpt which has 10% or more US content to China.
    This is the latest attempt to kill off Huawei, after all the previous shenanigans have failed to do so.

    On the critical chip industry, [[[they]]] are arm twisting Holland to stop supplying chip making machinery to China, fact is, TW’s TSMC, the world’s largest chip fab plant, is under increasing pressure to stop doing biz with the mainland.

    Extreme pressure is also applied on Ukraine to block the sale of jet engine technology to China, etc etc etc…….

    These are just the Tip of an iceberg.

    Even Chinese infrastructure projects like railways , airport, electricity, harbor port etc etc in Africa, Asia and the Pacific are being sabotaged and derailed, to be taken over by murkkans or their vassals such as Oz, Jp, India…

    This is nothing short of a Global Chinese Exclusion Act dictated from Washington.

    This the 21C murkkan mantra,
    If you cant compete, kill the [email protected]#$%^& !!!

    P.S.
    Dont get me started on Tibet, Xinjiang, HK, SCS, TW, ECS………

  120. Vidi says:
    @John Arthur

    One more thing, you should check out this chart by the World Bank and the IMF, which indicates that the US has increased the gap between itself and China in per capita terms over the last 20 years, while you and everyone had been crowing about America’s complete shadowing by China:
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=US-CN

    The World Bank’s numbers aren’t saying what you think they are saying.

    (I believe I drew your attention to those numbers a while back, so I am quite familiar with them.)

    What you should be focusing on is the ratio in per-capita GDP between the US and the PRC. In 1990, the average American was 24 times as rich as the average inhabitant of China. By 2018, the ratio had shrunk to 3.4. China has been catching up very quickly.

    If you only subtract the per-capita GDPs of the same year, arriving at what I call the year’s “absolute gap”, you could be fooled into thinking that the gap between the U.S. and the PRC is growing. That’s because the absolute gap is initially so large that China would have to grow ridiculously fast in order to prevent the gap from seeming to increase. (If you want the math, the note below should satisfy you.)

    When you cite the absolute gap, you are basically claiming that China isn’t growing 100% a year, and you are wasting everyone’s time. Of course China isn’t doing that — nobody is doing that.

    So the significant conclusion is that the gap between the U.S. and the PRC is actually narrowing, not widening.

    —-

    Note for those who want to see some simple math.

    For a given year, let U be the U.S. number, and C be the corresponding Chinese number. In 1990, according to the World Bank, those figures would be U=$23,888.60 and C=$987.64 respectively. Thus U=24*C, approximately (where “*” means “multiply”).

    Now let Ug be the U.S. growth rate in 1990, and Cg be the Chinese growth rate that year. Then for the absolute gap to shrink, we want

    >>>  U*Ug – C*Cg < U – C

    (where ">>>" marks an equation.) Recall that U=24*C. Thus we want

    >>>  24*C*Ug – C*Cg < 24*C – C = 23*C .

    Divide by C throughout (this works because C is positive):

    >>>  24*Ug – Cg 24*Ug – 23

    or

    >>>  Cg > 24*Ug – 23 .

    If the U.S. grows by just one percent, we would need Cg > 24*1.01 – 23 = 1.24.
    That is, China would have to grow by 124% just to keep the absolute gap from increasing.

    If the U.S. grows by three percent, we would need Cg > 24*1.03 – 23 = 1.72.
    China would have to grow by 172% just to keep the absolute gap from increasing.

    You are not saying much when you are claiming, basically, that China isn’t reaching these impossible rates of growth. Like saying that no high jumper on Earth can clear 40 feet unaided — which is true, but so what?

    • Replies: @John Arthur
  121. Smith says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    China history is complex but it can be sum up in two phases:

    – Before Song: endless civil war and kinstrife.
    – After Song: endless humiliation by barbarians from all direction.

    Even the good era like Tang and Ming had huge civil war and the later half of Ming court were ruled by eunuchs and were so bad that the border general opened the gate for Manchu to come invade.

    Ironically, the times when China territory were the biggest is when Han chinese were being ruled by mongols (Yuan) and the Manchu (Qing). Also, the Xiongnu, Jurchen were effectively defeated and absorbed by the mongols, not chinks. And this also extends to various kingdoms like Western Xia, Dali and Yin during the Song-Yuan dynasties that are now just boring chink provinces. Glad Vietnam and Japan resisted the mongo-chinks.

    • Troll: d dan
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  122. @Vidi

    I agree with some of your points, but I think you are missing something here. Everyone closes the relative gap with a richer country, that is just how the numbers work out.

    First countries dont grow in exponential factors, that is just how their growth is characterized. Remember, as I pointed out in the other thread, due to Chinas constant reform, its growth was actually accelerating due to reforms, but due to the higher bases it had than in 1990 or even 2000, it looked like it was slowing down. The Chinese are very happy that the economy is adding 1000+ to wages and GDP per capita yearly then adding 100+ like it was in the 90s, even if that growth was characterized as higher. China is developing faster than it was in the 90s, but due to the low bases, was seen as developing faster in the 90s than it was today.

    It’s actually harder for a country at the technological frontier to grow, which is why the exponential argument that you are basing your arguments on make no sense, otherwise it would be impossible for any country to play catch up. It is much easier for China to add an additional dollar than it would be for the UK and it would be easier for UK to add an additional dollar than the US. That is how technological transfers work. That’s why developed countries with low population growth like Japan grow something like 0.1% a year and African countries maintain like 10.9% a year growth.

    What your point’s math implies to be is that it is easier for developed countries to grow than underdeveloped countries, which would validate the argument that it would be impossible for China to close the gap if the US grew at some 3-4%. But that is just not how it works, they even call it Solows Curve.

    If you actually take a look at that worldbank statistics I showed, China has actually converged in absolute terms with Japan, France, United Kingdom, and Italy. So it is very possible, not impossible, as you claim. The US is just an economic powerweight, which is why the gap as increased. If you compare Singapore and China, you will see that one has closed the relative gaps, but has made absolutely no progress on closing the absolute gaps.

    Thanks for taking the time for responding to my comment.

    • Replies: @last straw
  123. augusto says:
    @Lin

    False reasoning mr Lin.
    The indian poor barber could easily buy much more of LOW COST indian food than the ‘merican
    equal service provider (such as a barber) with FIVE or ten percent of his earnings that the ‘merican one.
    Of course the problem for India is not at the barbers level but in the 60% misery poors in the subcontinent.
    But India grows continually at 5 or 5.5 pct a year whereas the exceptionalist use across the board LIE in their statistics every single day and everysingle TV news services.

    • Replies: @Lin
  124. @Smith

    Wrong.

    1) Tang was the furthest era of Chinese expansion, including much of South Asia and stretching into Central Asia.

    2) Jurchens were only defeated by Mongols because of Chinese intervention. In isolation, Song was slowly defeating the Jin and indeed forsaked an opportunity to retake China due to pure court politics.

    Yue fought a long campaign against the invading Jurchen in an effort to retake northern China. Just when he was threatening to attack and retake Kaifeng, corrupt officials advised Emperor Gaozong to recall Yue to the capital and sue for peace with the Jurchen. Fearing that a defeat at Kaifeng might cause the Jurchen to release Emperor Qinzong, threatening his claim to the throne, Emperor Gaozong followed their advice, sending 12 orders in the form of 12 gold plaques to Yue Fei, recalling him back to the capital. Knowing that a success at Kaifeng could lead to internal strife, Yue submitted to the emperor’s orders and returned to the capital, where he was imprisoned and where Qin Hui would eventually arrange for him to be executed on false charges.

    3) The Yuan/Mongol dynasty was so short-lived to almost be irrelevant, with their final victory in 1279, the Red Turbans rising in 1356 and founding the Ming by 1356. The Yuan lasted less than 80 years, and their remnants were wiped out and added to China.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ming_conquest_of_Yunnan

    4) The Ming in particularly despised eunuchs with the Hongwu Emperor attempting to eliminate their court presence in total. They would never control the court; Ming issues were from a separate provenance.

    5) The Ming fought over three hundred years in their era, almost all of them victorious(obviously, thus their continued existence). They intervened in the Imjin War and defeated Japan, and had so continuously crushed the Mongols that the Manchus came to exist – essentially the unified remnants of Mongols, Jurchens and other steppe people who managed to finally conquer a Ming weakened by internal rebellion.

    Manchu is now so utterly wiped out that China struggles to keep the language alive by paying stipends to the last remaining stipends.

    In summation: You are just very, very, very wrong. On everything. Which in someone as stupid as you, is probably a good thing, as it keeps you from harming anything worthwhile(it hurts yourself, but you are obviously worthless).

    • Replies: @Smith
    , @Alden
  125. Lin says:
    @augusto

    My original statement:

    The poorer the people, the bigger % of the household budget is spent on food and US farmers have lower production cost of bulk food…because of higher degree of mechanization

    Here I’m talking about production cost. Ever wonder why murica is the biggest exporter of food?
    (And it’s also well known as % of price, indian grains are more subsidized than those of American. Of course there’s also the issue of state/quality of bulk grain sold in india)

    The indian poor barber could easily buy much more of LOW COST indian food than the ‘merican equal service provider (such as a barber) with FIVE or ten percent of his earnings that the ‘merican one.

    Honestly I’m not sure what’s your point comparing 5 % of a murican barber’s income to 30% of that of an indian barber. 5 % of a murican barber’s income could buy good amount of meat which Indians consume very little. 30% of an indian barber’s income will be spent mostly on grains+some beans.
    As I said before PPP GDP has the problem of not considering consumption pattern. Which country, india or murica, has lower prices for:
    —Gasoline, chicken breast, laptop computer,
    —Domestic servant salary, service ‘providers’…
    (BicMac index might not be appropriate because BicMac in india are chicken sandwich which are cheaper than beef ones)

  126. Smith says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    I don’t think anything you said changed anything I said.

    The Tang territory comes not close to either the Yuan or Qing.
    The Song is still humilated by barbarians.
    The Ming is still humiliated by barbarian.
    The so-called civil strife happens because the emperor is corrupted, the court is corrupted and eunuchs run the show, as it is in every ending of chinese dynasties from Qin to Qing.

    It is ironic that you call mongols as wimps when northern asians are physically more imposing and stronger than chinks.

    • Troll: d dan
  127. @Smith

    Dude stop calling them Chinks. You can make an argument without resorting to such vulgarity.

    Anyways, as I have pointed out, China was the poorest people in the world for the last 2000 years, which is why they have been under such Malthusian pressure for intelligence.

    So while they made have had the world’s largest economy, it was only due to having the world’s largest population by far, which explains why they have had so much trouble dealing with the barbarians. But by the 18th century, the barbarians throughly were beaten by the Chinese, once population pressures started to abate.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
  128. @Smith

    It is ironic that you call mongols as wimps when northern asians are physically more imposing and stronger than chinks.

    And essentially eradicated between Russia and China.

    Seems like it wasn’t very helpful, was it?

    • Replies: @Smith
  129. @John Arthur

    Anyways, as I have pointed out, China was the poorest people in the world for the last 2000 years, which is why they have been under such Malthusian pressure for intelligence.

    Self-evident nonsense. China’s GDP per capita was consistently higher than England’s until the 1300s.

    https://voxeu.org/article/japan-and-great-divergence-725-1874

    Should also be self-evident that one does not get high population and an organized nation simply by being poor; high levels of mortality would take away from the losses. The disconnect between poverty and infant morality has only been fairly recent.

    What is accurate is that China has had immense organizational issues in an effort to maintain a centralized government. Such difficulties have had consistent consequences, not so much as “bad emperors” as much as a consistently in-fighting and fractious court(it got as bad as during the Imjin War, elements would outright lie to the emperor to his face, making it hard for him to make any decisions).

    If the emperor was a genius, like Taizong, everything was fine. For everyone else, the emperor would either be driven to tyrannical methods like the Yongle Emperor – which angered and disaffected his court further; or the emperor(especially if he was not inclined to cruelty) would essentially give up and “go on strike” such as the Wanli Emperor, who essentially ceased to rule on anything besides warfare, apparently deciding that herding cats was not in the job description.

    A fundamental problem resulting from this was that later dynasties would have difficulties collecting taxes; the Ming in particular struggled throughout, as any large scale tax efforts were stymied by local powers. Similar to King Charles in the English Civil War, the Imperial court simply had no good way of financing that was not overwhelmingly burdened and limited by the very people who wanted to keep the centralized power over them weakened. Some emperors, like Hongwu, overcame this by keeping the court spartan and expecting the mandarins to accept honor rather than wealth – but this just made them more suspectible to corruption.

    No good solution ultimately was found for this, and constantly wars and intervention drained the treasury; eventually such stresses would lead to the fall of the dynasty. It wasn’t because of particular poverty of the population – but essentially corruption and issues of scale that were not solved.

    Such centralization issues with modern day techniques are much different. The notion of local powers having such authority is hard to even think nowadays.

    • Replies: @John Arthur
    , @Jeff Stryker
  130. @Godfree Roberts

    China’s state controlled banking system has created $21 trillion of new money since 2009. That’s more than Japan, the EU, and the USA combined. A massive fraction of Chinese debt is non-performing and the economy is loaded with enormous loss making companies.

    China is in a huge bubble and will have a hard landing. They’ll probably dust themselves off be the #1 power in my lifetime, but there’s no way they get through this decade without a huge economic crisis.

  131. @Daniel Chieh

    Daniel,
    These numbers sharply differ with historical reality and Angus Maddisons own estimates. He is the premier on these issues. Check out his website. Instead of calling all my stuff nonsense while citing only one number for the pre 1000 ad UK with your link, you should check out the main guy on this, who has the most comprehensive data on this subject.
    On the data that he has, the Chinese were some of the poorest people on the planet. Not only that, larger populations tend to have larger per capita incomes, which indicates that a vast number of Chinese experienced horrific poverty unseen anywhere else.
    http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htm
    Ron even wrote an article on Chinese selection pressures, how would have that worked if they were richer than the British?

    • Replies: @John Arthur
    , @Daniel Chieh
  132. @bobbybobbob

    They won’t collapse, but stagnate like the Japanese, which followed that exact path, but it won’t happen for another 12-15 years.

  133. @John Arthur

    Oh well. These numbers from Angus cannot be really precise either, so I guess whatever I said can also be counted as guesswork. But one critique that I had was that China in your numbers was at the wealth cutoff point that the authors found was necessary for modern development for around 600 years, but never sprung the way forward. How likely would have that really been? Chinese are really smart, so it seems unlikely.
    Thanks for the comment nevertheless.

  134. @John Arthur

    These numbers sharply differ with historical reality

    What historical reality? China was indicated to be wealthy by visitors.

    When Marco Polo returned to Europe in 1295, his account of China (Cathay) as the largest, wealthiest, and most populous land in the world was not believed by many of his contemporaries. While his factual description gradually gained credibility, the Europeans of his day and long after continued to cherish a belief in the mysterious and exotic East.

    THE early sixteenth-century European accounts of China were prepared mainly by Portuguese merchants who stressed the material wealth, technological skills, and complex organization of Chinese society.

    etc. Derogatory comments were on the lack of courage of the Chinese, not their poverty.

    and Angus Maddisons own estimates. He is the premier on these issues.

    This is also the Cambridge core reader:

    Placing these results for China in an international comparative framework sheds new light on the timing of the Great Divergence. Our estimates indicate that Northern Song China was richer than Domesday Britain circa 1090, but Britain had caught up by 1400.

    Selecting and picking a random author doesn’t make it any more valid.

    Ron even wrote an article on Chinese selection pressures, how would have that worked if they were richer than the British?

    I’m familiar with the Clark-Unz selection theory, you can look it up yourself.

    https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/how-social-darwinism-made-modern-china-248/

    It does not require poverty, obviously. That’s not how evolution works. Selection only requires a trait to be selected for in reproduction. It just required the literati to have more children.

    In it, it specifically mentioned that Chinese agricultural techniques only fell behind in the 19th century.

    Chinese agricultural methods had always been exceptionally efficient, but by the 19th century, the continuing growth of the Chinese population had finally caught and surpassed the absolute Malthusian carrying-capacity of the farming system under its existing technical and economic structure

    The beauty of this, in fact, is that you can ask Unz himself here and he would almost certainly disagree with your very questionable assessment of history.

    • Replies: @Ron Unz
  135. First of all, Marco Polo visted the wealthiest area of China, also the most populous and assumed that the reality was the same everywhere else, that obviously wasn’t the reality.

    While the Angus Maddison statistics aren’t perfect, they are far better than the ones you listed, and they have China’s overall level of development as being low-medicore for most of the last 2000 years, lower than other Asian nations, and even Latin American societies.

    Even the statistics that *you posted* have Italy’s level of development was far higher of China’s during the period when Marco Polo visited. Relying on ancedotes that clash with your fundamental data hardly makes your image look better here. Marco Polo was obviously speaking in a grand style, and since the Chinese are obviously intelligent people, it makes sense that their richest area was one of some development. But Italy had a 50% higher standard of development by 1300 than China, per your own data, so either Marco Polo was blind as a bat, or he was speaking in grandiose terms, like most European writes are tend to do. Additionally, from that period onward, China’s would lose about half its GDP per capita, so Marco Polo’s observations were missing the mark there.

    With respect to the point about the Clark-Unz thesis, I do not follow your statement. Selection only works if poverty exists, otherwise then nothing will be selected for. In every society in the world, the poor have more children than the wealthy. The only time the opposite would occur if poverty was in sufficient form that it would quickly make the marriagable and future prospects of the poor deadly, which is what happened in contemporary China. If China was richer than Britian, which is the claim you made, then why did extreme selection occur over the last 1000-2000 years in China, but not in early Britain?

    I know that Ron mentioned to Peter Frost that the selection pressures in China were *vastly* greater than selection pressures in the UK, and the UK was even then, highly dense. If it was poorer than China, then it would have almost certainly undergone the same selective pressure.

    I get the feeling that you think that I am insulting the Chinese people here, when I have great respect for them. But the facts are that given China’s extreme population density, and the fact it had a low per-capita GDP for a country of its size, that explains why the barbarians were able to cause so much damage at the northern border. In the 1800s, China’s population pressures subsided, its economy grew into its apex, and it finally destroyed the barbarian hordes for good. All frameworks of China’s economy admit it grew into its apex in 1830, with the Song Dynasty, and the Chinese had its largest share of the world economy. That is what your data showcases, and what all the textbooks state. So I am really confused what you are trying to argue here.

    • Replies: @John Arthur
  136. @John Arthur

    Sorry I mean the Qing Dynasty instead of the Song Dynasty.

  137. Smith says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    Well, millions of them yet live in Mongolia, northern China and a part of Russia.

    Be careful on sating your bloodlust though, else you might piss up your russian backers.

    • Troll: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Daemon
  138. @bobbybobbob

    China’s debt burden is one-third of America’s right now, in 2020.

    Last week, Beth Hammack, a senior Goldman Sachs banker who chairs a US government advisory group known as the Treasury Bond Advisory Committee, dispatched a letter to Steven Mnuchin, Treasury secretary, with a bombshell at the bottom.

    According to TBAC calculations, America will need to sell an eye-popping $12tn of bonds in the coming decade, sharply more than it did in the past 10 years.

    This will “pose a unique challenge for the Treasury”, Ms Hammack warned, even “without factoring in the possibility of a recession”.

    In plain English, the Wall Street luminaries on the committee were asking who on earth — or in global finance — will buy this looming mountain of Treasuries?

    The question is highly timely, if not ironic, given that Mr Mnuchin is heading to Beijing for yet another round of US-China trade talks.

    In recent decades China has been a reliable source of demand for American debt, as the country amassed vast defensive foreign exchange reserves and its export boom left it with dollars to invest.

    But now a shift is in the air: between May and November last year, China’s holdings of US Treasuries quietly shrank from $1.18tn to $1.12tn, well below the levels seen just three years ago, when China’s holdings topped $1.25tn. –Gillian Tett, FT.

    • Replies: @bobbybobbob
    , @Mefobills
  139. Erebus says:
    @John Arthur

    The underpinnings of a nation’s currency achieving and maintaining international reserve currency status cannot be reduced to statistics. They are as much political as they are economic.

    The USD’s reserve status stood on 3 legs:

    – The world’s largest economy. Size and productive output matter…
    – The world’s most powerful military. Size and capability matter…
    – A deep, transparent, and well run financial/taxation system. Size and political trust matter.

    None of those holds today, and so the USD’s reserve status is running on the fumes of inertia.

    The fact that no single country stands on all 3 legs and can take its place is the primary “support” that continues to keep it where it is. There is no mechanism to transition away from the USD, and there’s nothing to transition to. As soon as a solution to that is found, the USD’s reserve status falters.

    That the US & USD are now unbacked by any of the 3 legs is widely recognized, and so a lot of people are working on currency baskets & swaps, SDRs and various digital currency schemes looking for a solution. Presumably in the hope that a solution is found before an exogenous event blows the problem sky high, China does more now to support the USD’s reserve status than the US itself.

    China’s ancillary, but important, support comes from what can be called the “network effect” of the USD’s permeation through the world as a unit of exchange and store of value. As the world’s largest trader, China’s acceptance and use of the USD in international trade is critical to its maintenance.

    In banknotes alone (aka: physical paper FRNs), some $250B of the $375B total circulates overseas. $6.2T of a total of $16.1T in UST paper is held by foreigners, mostly Central Banks. So, another support the USD enjoys is that foreigners hold a lot of USDs. China could kiss off their remaining $1.1T without skipping a beat, but could a Kenya, a Zimbabwe, a Brazil or any developing country that has been forced by IMF treaty to hold USDs kiss off their foreign currency reserves and not fall into chaos? No.

    Nobody likes chaos, least of all China. However, if the US continues to misbehave politically and financially, its view can be expected to change to “Chaos if necessary, but not necessarily chaos.” It’s a short step from there to “Let it burn”.

  140. Daemon says:
    @Smith

    Those chinks will always be your big older brother.

    Always.

    • Replies: @Smith
  141. @Godfree Roberts

    Yes, the USA is rapidly careening towards a fiscal crisis. As are Japan and most European nations. This has little bearing on the point at hand: the banking system in China has conjured up 2X more money than the rest of the world combined in recent years, and invested most of it non-productively. Your sources indicating otherwise are misleading. We have seen how this “helicopter money” strategy plays out over and over again throughout history. There’s no way China is special.

    China will have a financial crisis of some sort first. This in turn will probably pull the other countries into crisis, but it’s set to kick off in China.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  142. Alden says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    From what I know about Chinese history, you’re right.

  143. Alden says:
    @Smith

    North Han Chinese are very tall, like 6 ft or more for men 5’6 women.

    We westerners think Han Chinese are short because for hundreds of years the diaspora came from the small southern Chinese. Difference might be caused by northerners eating high protein wheat southerners eating low protein rice. I don’t know, doesn’t matter why.

    The biggest diaspora comes from south China, canton after the Taiping rebels of Canton were defeated 1850???. Thinking all Han are the small Cantonese is like thinking all Europeans are tall Russians or short Sicilians.

    I don’t think mongols are all that big compared to the Han.

    Historically, the Chinese were very Nationalist ethnicist chauvinist didn’t want contamination by the lesser breeds. Plus it’s so big China never needed to conquer the neighbors. China basically has everything a country needs. I don’t know all that much about it. But I have the impression China was always just defensive. China repelled invaders if it could but didn’t need to conquer and expand geographically.

    The Han eventually overthrew the Manchu.

    • Replies: @Smith
  144. @John Arthur

    If you actually take a look at that worldbank statistics I showed, China has actually converged in absolute terms with Japan, France, United Kingdom, and Italy. So it is very possible, not impossible, as you claim. The US is just an economic powerweight, which is why the gap as increased. If you compare Singapore and China, you will see that one has closed the relative gaps, but has made absolutely no progress on closing the absolute gaps.

    You miss the whole picture if you concentrate on the absolute gap between per capita GDP only. To fully appreciate the relative effect of the gap, you have to take China’s per capita GDP into consideration. For example, a gap of $40,000 will have a greater relative effect if China’s per capita GDP is $20,000, when compared to, say, if China’s per capita GDP is $80,000. Once you take China’s per capita GDP into consideration, you will realize that the gap has decreased, instead of increased, effectively.

    As for converging with the U.S. or Singapore, with a growth rate of 3-4 times (combined effects of economic growth and China’s currency appreciation) faster, it’s a mathematical certainty that China’s per capita GDP will approach the former two. Insisting otherwise sounds illogical to me.

  145. @Daniel Chieh

    …If China was so poor, why could they afford to dismiss Marco Polo’s offer? And later that of the British? It is not as if China was interested in the Silk Trade and definitely was not interested in Opium.

    …If China is so undeveloped, why is crime there lower than in the West? Of course some Hong Kong casinos are the stalking grounds of Triads but in general China is not beset by street violence and infested by gangs like America or even UK.

    …Why did Hong Kong improve after the Brits left in 1997? Of course there is political turmoil but the poverty and lawlessness of the so-called “Wild East” no longer exists in Hong Kong.

    …Why is China less corrupt than the Philippines or even the US? I’m not saying corruption does not exist but it is not as rampant as Manila or Los Angeles.

    …Why is China safer than Detroit or Los Angeles?

    …Why is there less homelessness in China than in America?

  146. @bobbybobbob

    Do you have any facts to back up your statements or are you just remembering Fox News?

    • Replies: @bobbybobbob
  147. denk says:

    I heard the US IS on decline while China is ascending…

    BUt you cant put a good man down for long,

    The world’s no 1 ‘shit stirrer‘ has been on Stanozolol lately….

    Violent color rev in HK.

    ‘five liars’ concerted smear campaign on ‘Chinese spies in
    Oz and TW..’

    The above combined help Washington’s bitch Cai Yin Wen
    to sweep to a big victory in prez election.

    Washington scheming to ‘upgrade’ the so-called Amerkkan Institute in TW to ’embassy’ status, followed by ambassador posting.

    THIS IS CHINA’S DECLARED RED LINE,

    Intensive smear campaign on Xinjiang.

    Stoking fire in SCS…

    numerous skirmishes bet VN and PRC,

    Now even the hitherto neutral Indonesia, which has no territorial dispute with China, has joined the fray.

    Swine flu in China which almost wipe out the domestic pork supply,

    Now a mysterious SARS like epidemic is spreading in Wuhan,

    Now you know why PRC is building its navy like there’s no tomorrow,

  148. @Desert Fox

    Thanks for the two book recommendations.

    • Replies: @Desert Fox
  149. @Mefobills

    Thanks for your comment; many valid points.

    I don’t however understand the relevance of Zion here. Zion was created by the people running the City but that’s for another discussion. My reference to “long plan” was about the City of London, only. It was the City who brought up the USA and is now taking it down. History seems to repeat with China. I am wary of Kissinger’s decade-long involvement in China. Just recently again, he met with Xi.

    • Replies: @Mefobills
  150. Ron Unz says:
    @Daniel Chieh

    In it, it specifically mentioned that Chinese agricultural techniques only fell behind in the 19th century…The beauty of this, in fact, is that you can ask Unz himself here and he would almost certainly disagree with your very questionable assessment of history.

    Yes, I’d generally be much closer to your own position on these issues.

    I’m hardly a specialist in these historical economic comparisons, but my impression is that the traditional consensus view had been that the standard of living of ordinary Europeans only pulled noticeably ahead of that in China around the end of the 18th century, though there were obviously huge geographical variations in both regions.

    For example, back about seven or eight years ago, I read Kenneth Pomeranz’s The Great Divergence (2000), which I found extremely impressive and certainly supported this perspective. Pomeranz also provided a seemingly persuasive analysis of how the successful European colonization of the Americas had been a key factor behind Europe’s later economic rise.

    However, last year there was an enormously long thread on this website in which several commenters disputed when Europe had surpassed China, with one of them claiming that more recent scholarly research suggested that the economic/technological cross-over had actually occurred something like a century earlier, maybe around 1700.

    Frankly, all those individuals seemed far more knowledgeable than myself, so those interested in the question might just want to review the debate and decide for themselves:

    https://www.unz.com/article/why-harvard-is-right-to-discriminate-against-asians/?showcomments#comment-3465250

    (I’m not sure about Maddison’s specific sources, but my impression is that since his economic tables cover the entire world and the last thousand years or so, they tend to be much less reliable with regard to specific regions than the analyses of leading academic specialists. But perhaps I’m mistaken.)

    • Thanks: Daniel Chieh
  151. @Hiram of Tyre

    I would like to recommend these also, The Committee of 300 by ex MI6 officer John Coleman and By Way of Deception by ex Mossad Victor Ostrovsky and The Secret Team by Col. L. Fletcher Prouty, I have these books, they can be had on amazon.com.

    • Replies: @Hiram of Tyre
  152. @Desert Fox

    Thanks for that. I read the first two but not the last one (which seems great).

  153. @Godfree Roberts

    The Chinese banking system is now over $40.1 trillion dollars. More than 37% of *global* GDP. All your analysis is either glossing over or incorrectly tallying the totally historically unprecedented state controlled Chinese banking system balance sheet expansion. A deflationary default crisis is baked into the cake.

    Yes, the USA is over extended and headed for problems. That’s also not the imminent problem. It’s the insanity in the Chinese banking system.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
    , @Vidi
  154. Smith says:
    @Daemon

    Aye, but bigger doesn’t necessarily mean better.

    In fact, a tiger can be taken apart by a pack of monkeys.

    • Replies: @Daemon
  155. Smith says:
    @Alden

    The North “Han chinese” are basically mutt that mix with mongols, jurchen and the northern asian, which explain why they look very different than southern Han chinese, and stronger too.

    And China did ATTEMPT to conquer and vassalage its neighbors, like Korea or Vietnam. Korea is basically China’s dog in this case while Vietnam times and times again defeat China. Japan meanwhile is too far away, and despite muh best navy in Asia (at the times), China can’t even hope to invade Japan (the mongols certainly tried with very dubious results).

    Ironically, it was the mongols and their burn-rape-kill tactics that destroyed Western Xia and Dali that gave China such huge territories.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  156. @bobbybobbob

    You’re only looking at one side of the ledger.

    Yes, liabilities have expanded, but China’s banking assets more than offset their liabilities.

    A deflationary default crisis is baked into the cake?
    1990. China’s economy has come to a halt. The Economist
    1996. China’s economy will face a hard landing. The Economist
    1998. China’s economy’s dangerous period of sluggish growth. The Economist
    1999. Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. Bank of Canada
    2000. China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. Chicago Tribune
    2001. A hard landing in China. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas
    2002. China Seeks a Soft Economic Landing. Westchester University
    2003. Banking crisis imperils China. New York Times
    2004. The great fall of China? The Economist
    2005. The Risk of a Hard Landing in China. Nouriel Roubini
    2006. Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? International Economy
    2007. Can China avoid a hard landing? TIME
    2008. Hard Landing In China? Forbes
    2009. China’s hard landing. China must find a way to recover. Fortune
    2010: Hard landing coming in China. Nouriel Roubini
    2011: Chinese Hard Landing Closer Than You Think. Business Insider
    2012: Economic News from China: Hard Landing. American Interest 
    2013: A Hard Landing In China. Zero Hedge 
    2014. A hard landing in China. CNBC
    2015. Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing. Forbes 
    2016. Hard landing looms for China. The Economist
    2017. Is China’s Economy Going To Crash? National Interest
    2018. China’s Coming Financial Meltdown. The Daily Reckoning.
    2019 China’s Economic Slowdown: How worried should we be? BBC

    • Replies: @Smith
    , @Mefobills
  157. Smith says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    They say the same thing about the USSR too.

    Then boom, one day the USSR imploded.

    • Replies: @bobbybobbob
  158. Daemon says:
    @Smith

    It’s not about being bigger or being better.

    You either follow the Confucian traditions of your ancestors and pay respects to your elders or you spit on everything your forebears stood for and throw in your lot with the barbarians.

    But then again, seeing your handle I guess I know what side you’ve already chosen.

    • Replies: @Smith
  159. Smith says:
    @Daemon

    My elders and ancestors are vietnamese, I am following them.

    For them, the chinks are the invaders.

    • Replies: @Lin
  160. @Smith

    USSR collapsed when oil prices collapsed and they couldn’t ramp up production. USA quality of life metrics flat-lined when the conventional oil fields peaked in the early 1970s.

    In substantial part, China’s rise was based on their ability to massively ramp up coal mining. They’re now running out of coal. I think the peak was a few years ago. It might be “now-ish”.

    Without artificially cheap coal powered electricity, China does not offer much in the modern global economy. (Same true of USA, as the totally fake fracking boom dies out.)

    • Replies: @Smith
  161. Smith says:
    @bobbybobbob

    Meh, USA and China are both globalized consumerist shitholes with manufactured culture, so I wouldn’t be missing them.

    I just hope Europe and Asia aren’t much affected. No one is going to be missing the rap music and cheap plastic crap.

  162. Anonymous[214] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anon

    American stupid unions and lazy workers vs. Chinese workers

    • LOL: bluedog
  163. Lin says:
    @Smith

    SoCal,

    My elders and ancestors are vietnamese, I am following them.

    For them, the chinks are the invaders.

    My sympathy, you inherited the genetics from your agent orange damaged elders and ancestors.
    No country on Earth has ever inflicted more deaths on VN than the yanks&allies during the Vietnam war.
    Your elders and ancestors are phoney viet nationalists who fled with great desperation to countries that bombed/poisoned the fcuk out of their homeland

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
    , @Smith
  164. @Lin

    Well it isn’t like Communist China offered them anything, is it?

    Take the Philippines. China is responsible for the drug war and all the businesses are owned by Chinese-born tycoons and America has to donate food and AID while all the money goes back to China.

    China will never do anything humanitarian for anyone. Africa is similar. Black refugees pour into Europe while China strip mines Africa’s precious minerals.

    Then when the natives occasionally riot-and they will again in Africa sooner because blacks are not low-T laidback Malays-Chinese will blame the US.

    • Troll: Vidi
  165. China produced 127 trillion yuan’s worth of goods and services in 2017. Using an exchange rate of 6.37 yuan per dollar, that amounts to US $11.97 trillion.

    Aheum… How the hell do you come to this result? in my book, 127/6.37 gives 19.94, not 11.97.

  166. @Smith

    “Vietnam times and times again defeat China”… Vietnam was a part of China for centuries. For all intents and purposes – they were “southern Chinese” – which is why someone who doesn’t know will think someone in Guangxi and Vietnam are the same. In many cases – they are the same ethnic groups. French colonization changed Vietnam. But even then – they requested help from their supposedly hated “Chinese” neighbors. The Qing dynasty did fight the French on their behalf. They didn’t evict the French as they were already weak (though they did win some battles). The relationship is much more complicated than just hate.

    • Replies: @Smith
  167. Smith says:
    @Lin

    Really doubt the yanks top the score of oppression of 1000 years of chink occupation and then yearly chink invasion on top of that.

    Sorry, but viets aren’t cannon fodder for you chinks against the yanks. And born and raised in Vietnam, we all remember 1979.

    • Replies: @Lin
    , @DB Cooper
  168. Lin says:

    Take the Philippines. China is responsible for the drug war and all the businesses are owned by Chinese-born tycoons and America has to donate food and AID while all the money goes back to China.
    China will never do anything humanitarian for anyone. Africa is similar. Black refugees pour into Europe while China strip mines Africa’s precious minerals.

    Questions:–How much drug pinoy drug money,if any,went to china? I’m sure the Chinese govt would be quite glad to help the pinoy govt to solve such drug money cleansing. I personally don’t consider late gen ‘ethnic Chinese’outside China Chinese. A recent US ambassador to Chinese is ‘ethnic’ Chinese and I doubt if anyone in china considered him a kin.
    Chinese mining minerals in Africa is quite alright if 1)The africans are paid market prices for the commodities 2)Pay no less attention to ecological issues than the western coorperations operating there 3)Give the African soft loans for infrastructure projects

    • Replies: @Jeff Stryker
  169. Lin says:
    @Smith

    And born and raised in Vietnam, we all remember 1979

    You have my sympathy of being in such antagonized mental state.
    Agent orange definitely is a mind bending and addictive drug.
    To ease your pain, you should campaign for another viet invasion of Laos.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Vietnamese_invasion_of_Laos

    • Replies: @Smith
  170. @Lin

    According to a Chinese-Filipino drug dealer living in my Cebu subdivision all of it “Goes back to Taiwan laboratories”.

    This particular Chinese-Filipino was a gambling addict who never touched drugs. I was curious about the meth trade and asked him.

    You have expenses down the supply chain, however. Importers, suppliers, distributors. Locally in the Philippines. But most of the money ends up back in Taiwan. Not mainland China. The factories are in Taiwan.
    .

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  171. DB Cooper says:
    @Smith

    You Vietnamese shit is the most aggressive people in southeast Asia. Just ask your neighbors, the Thais, the Cambodians, the Laos what they think of Vietnam. The 1979 invasion is well deserved. Vietnam has been lobbing RPG across the borders constantly and China has been telling Vietnam to stop to no avail. This is one of the reasons of the invasion (there are also other geopolitical reasons). To tell your country to cut that nonsense. And it works. After the brief invasion Vietnam got the message loud and clear and peace and tranquality is restored along the borders that persist to this day.

    The invasion is totally justified. As Deng remarked then, “Sometimes if kids don’t behave you need to spank them.”

  172. Mefobills says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    You’re only looking at one side of the ledger.

    Yes, liabilities have expanded, but China’s banking assets more than offset their liabilities.

    Godfree,

    Most people cannot understand double entry ledger mechanics, where there are offsetting liabilities and assets.

    It is an alien concept and takes some time to grasp. Economists do not really understand banking and the double entry ledger. It took Bank of England to issue a whitepaper on how bank debt creates bank credit, to then stop the infighting. BOE whitepaper shows how the ledger mechanics works. Most economists thought that banking inter-mediated money rather than creating/destroying.

    So, if supposedly educated people get it wrong, then we have to go easy on the layman.

    • Agree: Godfree Roberts
  173. Mefobills says:
    @Hiram of Tyre

    It was the City who brought up the USA and is now taking it down. History seems to repeat with China. I am wary of Kissinger’s decade-long involvement in China.

    It was finance capitalist Jews (Sephardim) who had become rich maneuvering the stock market in Amersterdam, who then maneuvered the bank of england into being.

    In 1694, the first debt spreading bank, the BOE came into existence.

    Goldmen from Amsterdam promised X amount of gold, and also promised english goldmen stock in the bank. Of course, the Jews out of Amsterdam screwed over the English.

    Later, Rothschild got his claws into the BOE, and control further consolidated into Jewry’s hands.

    In the late 1800’s Rothschild got on board with Zion at first Zionist conference. In effect, ZION IS FINANCE INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL. Zion is a direct lineal descendant of Jewry and Usury method going back thousands of years.

    Debt spreading and usury are the family business of Zion.

    Zion made London its home, when it jumped from Amsterdam to London. It then tried to infect the U.S. over the ensuing years, culminating in victory by 1912. ZOG now includes the anglosphere.

    The election of 1912 was a bankster funded affair, and the american publik was duped and maneuvered by the money powers.

    The city did not bring up the USA. The American System of Economy of Henry Clay was operative from 1869 to 1912. Mostly the two economic system were at war with each other i.e. industrial capital vs “international” finance capital. The war of 1812 was one of the first attempts of London to install a bank under their control (or rather punishment for their failing).

    Kissinger was only triangulating power politics in China.

  174. Mefobills says:
    @Godfree Roberts

    In plain English, the Wall Street luminaries on the committee were asking who on earth — or in global finance — will buy this looming mountain of Treasuries?

    It is suicidal to listen to wall street luminaries.

    Treasury has to be staffed with government economists, and not a revolving door from wall street.

    This revolving door crowd of neo-liberal economists do not have the answers. They are stuck in false paradigms.

    The Treasury will have to issue debt free money to cancel old TBills as they come due. The debt free will be either sovereign dollars good for the mainland, or a different kind of dollar for external circulation.

    Also, returning overseas dollars will have to be converted to this new form of money, so they cannot buy up American assets. Let’s call them Eurodollars. Do not sell off your patrimony for a false identity of money, to then screw the future for your offspring.

    The whole “reserve currency” idea and allowing the rest of the World to use America’s money was a massive screw up. As overseas dollar trading zones collapse, as foreign banks stop using dollars as reserve, surplus dollars on the world market will want to travel to the only place that dollars are redeemed.. the mainland.

    It is not really even America’s money, it is Federal Reserve Notes, the debt issuance of private corporate banks.

    It will take good governance and law changes to overcome the coming storm, and wall street jackals are not in charge of the law. That is reserved to the people. It was the same finance crowd that got us into trouble, and they don’t have what it takes to get us out of trouble.

    Wall Street economists don’t even know that money is law, and the concept of converting money to a new type would never occur to them in a million years.

    • Agree: bluedog
  175. Vidi says:
    @bobbybobbob

    The Chinese banking system is now over $40.1 trillion dollars.

    Link to a credible source?

    A deflationary default crisis is baked into the cake.

    Why? Who will be calling in the loans? The Chinese have a lot of debt, but nearly all of it is strictly an internal matter. That is, one Chinese entity is loaning its renminbi to other Chinese entities, which may loan their money to even smaller entities, and so on down the line. To start the process, China’s government creates a few trillion renminbi out of thin air, gives them to the huge state banks, and is in no rush to get the money back. So who will be calling in the loans?

    Of course, few countries can increase their economic growth rate — safely — by creating massive quantities of money. The new money stimulates demand for natural resources, for manufactured goods, and so on. If the country is not nearly self-sufficient in these things, it needs to import them from elsewhere, in exchange for exports, or, in the American case, by swapping foreign goods for petro-dollars. If the country needs to import but can’t, the new money merely stokes internal inflation. Fortunately, China has many ways to pay for its imports.

    China is among the few countries that can still grow rapidly with little need to borrow from abroad. The Middle Kingdom isn’t in a debt trap.

    • Replies: @Godfree Roberts
  176. Smith says:
    @Lin

    Huh, that’s just communist solidarity though, the coomie Lao was asking for Viet help, so Viet helped. Said coomie Lao also got the support from China, so I guess if Vietnam is guilty, so is China.

    @DB Cooper
    Yes, Vietnam is so aggressive that it has to endure yearly chink invasion. Good thing they got spanked every times.

    The Lao and Cambodian have a high opinion of vietnamese too, no matter what their government says.

    And we spanked the chinks well in 1979, considering Pol Pot (a chink and USA ally) got dethroned while the chink army stomped out a bit and ended up leaving after getting beaten up by vietnamese MILITIA (the actual NVA was busy in Cambodia, dethroning Pol Pot).

    Come to Vietnam again and get your well-deserved spank again.

  177. Lin says:

    Huh?

    that’s just communist solidarity though, the coomie Lao was asking for Viet help, so Viet helped. Said coomie Lao also got the support from China, so I guess if Vietnam is guilty, so is China

    You want to quote a web of politics which is a lot more complicate than the fate of agent orange babies and millions of death to prove your point? You’re just mentally disturbed.

    The Lao and Cambodian have a high opinion of vietnamese

    The Laotians I communicate on the web hate viets with passion.

    Come to Vietnam again and get your well-deserved spank again.

    Huh? Your chest thumping really shows your insecurity

    • Replies: @Smith
  178. Smith says:
    @showmethereal

    Vietnam were never a part of China. Vietnam was colonized by China.

    And yes, Vietnam times and times again defeat China. The Qing did jackshit against the french.

    • Replies: @GammaRay
    , @showmethereal
  179. US GDP is mostly made of hot air like its financial system of trading back and forth that outputs nothing of value. How much does US produce? A small wodden house in the US costs $1 million while that $1 million would get you a brick mansion in places like china. While the US adds $1 mil to its GDP output in the useful figure.. Now with flippers you have $3 millions there.. A Russia S400 costing $2.5 Billions is equivalent to a $20 Bil US system that the saudi’s paid for.. It does less but they did pay for that so again an inferior non working industrial productive output that costs 10 times as much but basically worthless junk.. The Saudi’s did pay that much but they used something worthless, the Oil which they paid someone to pump out and pay for.. They sure did not work for it.. Makes its value only as much as someone is willing to pay for.. So like monopoly money buying expensive worthless junk and it all added to the GDP numbers..

    • Replies: @showmethereal
  180. melpol says:

    Total war with China has become unthinkable. Cooperation is necessary to have both nations live in prosperity. But the US is burdened by useless baggage that need to be supported. It is not fair that the useless are counted as US nationals. In the need to be friendly to China and be as an equal the US has to unload those that are an eyesore and drag on its economy. The prosperous of both nations have to stand up and be counted, the downtrodden have to be thrown under the bus.

  181. GammaRay says:
    @Smith

    the fact that you are so persistent about vocalizing your dislike of “chinks” betrays the immense amount of butthurt and insecurity you feel with regards to them. You unconsciously display your own weakness and impotence everytime you post something outrageous and vitriolic about china or chinese people.

    as the old saying goes: “doth protest too much”

  182. Realist says:
    @Just passing through

    Although it is true Chinese cities are very clean, the more rural areas are not and I say this from experience.

    They don’t have blacks or hispanics .

  183. Smith says:
    @Lin

    How exactly am I mentally disturbed? China also supported the coomie Lao in said very struggle, does that mean China is also guilty?

    Also, Lao and cambodia have a shitton of viets in here. Chinks might buy the government but solidarity persists between Lao-Cambodia-Viet.

    @GammaRay
    The fact you are butthurt at the word chink amuse me, chink.

    • Replies: @Lin
    , @GammaRay
  184. Lin says:
    @Smith

    SoCal, you’ve such silly rhetorics

    How exactly am I mentally disturbed?

    Self explanatory. And I ain’t the only person with that impression

    China also supported the coomie Lao in said very struggle

    I see nothing wrong with it.

    solidarity persists between Lao-Cambodia-Viet

    As I said many Laotians, cambodians don’t share that passion
    Rather I would rephrase it:

    solidarity persists between China and Vietnam

    Guess what, Vietnam has been importing electricity from china for many years,not just recently.
    Be reminded that VN is a strip of land on the eastern coast of indo-china. North VN coastline is within 400 km of china’s Hainan island. Central VN is entirely within 400 km of Hainan.

    • Replies: @Smith
  185. @Smith

    Do you even have a clue of how Vietnam formed???

    And you are obviously very very ignorant if you don’t know Vietnam asked the Qing Dyansty – and received – help to push out the French. Whether they succeeded or not is not the issue. But I know some people prefer ignorance.

  186. @Igor Bundy

    You are correct… Aside from PPP – when you measure the “real economy” versus the “financial economy” – China’s size vs the US economy becomes even more apparent. Same thing with China’s R&D and military spending… China’s R&D almost matches the US in US dollar terms… But because a dollar goes much further in China – it’s no surprise the things we see now. Military wise – you brought up a good point about the S400. The same goes for all military spending. Compare the cost of one of China’s brand new destroyers versus the cost of a US one. As a US tax payer – it makes me get a headache… Not because of “fear”… But because my money is wasted.

    • Agree: Godfree Roberts
  187. @Jeff Stryker

    Well I can’t say I know the current situation you speak of but if you go back in history – Taiwan had a history as a drug factory back during Japanese colonization. That was one of the main money makers for Japan. Of course most organized crime fled the CCP and ended up in Hong Kong and Taiwan – so they had their drug dealing connections… Of note – during the “Air America” CIA campaigns – some KMT officers and soldiers “trapped” in the Golden Triangle were making big money off the opium trade. Of course that money was to be used to fight the communists while the US looked the other way (But we know drug dealers don’t like to give up lucrative rackets). The last part is in the book “China Hands” but an ex CIA

  188. GammaRay says:
    @Smith

    The fact you are butthurt at the word chink amuse me, chink.

    im not the one who goes in the comments of every article related to china and spams “chink this and chink that”. You obviously are very butthurt and very insecure, its pretty sad man.

    also im not chinese 😉

    • Replies: @d dan
  189. d dan says:
    @GammaRay

    Most of us come here to argue, debate, convince, be convinced or to learn. “Smith”s behavior indicates none of the above desire. His obvious objective is to irritate, insult and provoke.

    Added to the fact that he keeps advertise his “Vietnamese” ethnicity, even when nobody was asking and has no iota of interest, we probably can deduce his deeper mission as a paid troll: to spread hatred and conflicts among Chinese and Vietnamese.

    Further, his handle may be used with multiple persons (due to subtle variation of the styles of writing), and being switched with different names. He doesn’t know nor care what those info reveals. In one instance, “Smith” claims to be in Brazil. In another, he defends white people against the invasion of Indio from Bolivia. Clearly not a very smart nor careful person.

    • Replies: @GammaRay
  190. GammaRay says:
    @d dan

    thanks for the heads up, I didnt realize these facts before.

  191. It’s true, of course; China has already surpassed the United States in all the really important economic measures. Apart from the fact that the US dollar is still the no. 1 global currency – which is the only thing that lets the Americans maintain their current lifestyle at all at this point.

    Donald Trump is going through the motions of a trade war, since he promised his voters one. But nothing is going to come of it, as both the United States and China know that:

    1) The US has too little domestic manufacturing ability left to stand on its own without cheap Chinese imports, and

    2) China owns so many dollar-denominated assets that a crash in the US economy would crash their economy as well.

    https://www.twilightpatriot.com/2019/09/nobody-will-win-trade-war.html

    So the status quo will continue for now, since even though China has a greater economic output than the United States (not that surprising when you consider how it has 4x more people), both countries are heavily dependent on the other for their economies to function.

  192. Erebus says:

    2) China owns so many dollar-denominated assets that a crash in the US economy would crash their economy as well.

    Disagree.

    The ~U$1.1T held in China’s reserves make up about ~35% of the PBoC’s U$3.1T total official reserves. However, unofficially China has been buying gold with both hands for at least the last decade. For the most part, that gold hasn’t shown up on the PBoC’s ledger.

    Though there is no telling how much “non-monetary” gold they hold, credible estimates based on gold import and transaction data indicate the amount could be as high as 20kT. If so, replacing their collapsing USD holdings by moving non-monetary gold into official reserves would be a matter of some ledger entries.

    In the event, one could expect the gold price to jump substantially, but even at the current gold price the USD could blow up tomorrow and there’d be little impact on the PBoC’s reserve holdings. As the US absorbs ~18% of China’s exports, if that trade blew up along with the USD China’s economic activity would definitely take a hit. It is likely that China’s economy would go into recession, but collapse would remain a long way from that.

    China’s export markets are now so diversified, its domestic economy so robust, its currency swap agreements sufficiently widespread that collapse would take a lot more than the demise of the USD.

  193. Smith says:
    @Lin

    How exactly is it silly though? So you are saying Vietnam was bad for “invading” Laos when China was also supporting the same Lao movement that asked for Viet invasion? And no, I don’t think you know the influence of Vietnam in Laos and cambodian.

    And China and Vietnam trade extensively, but so does China and Japan, and China and the US. I guess China should stop shit-talking US and Japan and US and Japan should stop shit-talking China? Nope, problems exist and political correctness solves nothing.

    And yes, Vietnam is a tiny a strip of land off the coast that has times and times again countered chink invasion. Chinks to this day do not even DARE to even invade Vietnam again, they can only occupy the sea and islands.

    @showmethereal
    Vietnam was formed by vietnamese. Does chink history teach you differently?

    And yes, Vietnam asked the Qing dynasty, in fact, the Nguyen dynasty chose to isolate itself like the Qing dynasty, and surprise, the Qing dynasty, being a corrupt shithole, couln’t do shit against the french. And no, right back at you, the fact Vietnam asked Qing dynasty for help isn’t the issue here, when Qing dynasty couldn’t do jackshit to protect itself, let alone Vietnam.

    @GammaRay:
    Well, bruv, sound like you are a bit obsessed.

    You can be a spiritual chink.

  194. @Vidi

    China’s $40 Trillion Banking System Learns a Lesson on Risk …
    Jul 21, 2019 – http://www.bloomberg.com › news › articles › china-s-40-trillion-banking-s…

  195. FRMS says:
    @Jason Liu

    If certain Chinese values and sociological understandings were packaged in the right way, conservatives in this country would gobble it up. I don’t think it WILL ever be properly packaged, and to do so would probably violate the gentlemen’s agreements between the leaders of our respective countries, but there are so many people here intellectually drowning in egalitarian jive, and desperate for a breath of oxygen, that it could be a big hit.

    Every culturally left-wing American should have the opportunity to live in China and be told, “Ha, ha! We had all those -isms here too back in the 70’s. It was a lot of fun, but no one ever really believed in it.”

  196. ritchiet says:
    @A123

    when I noted that Zerohedge has Gordon Chang as a regular contributor on China issues I decided Zerohedge was not worth my time. Next I came across this https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-01/zero-hedge-permanently-suspended-from-twitter-for-harassment Ok Zerohedge is out!

  197. Erzberger says:
    @eah

    “the migration flow, as opposed to the tourist flow, is still pretty much unidirectional.”

    Please keep in mind that China has already built the wall, a long time ago, and does not want Westerners, or any non-Chinese to live there (I think there are no more than 200 000 white people living in China, if that, and most of them are married to a Chinese person). That is the main reason why the immigration flow is unidirectional. In the US, it would be called racism – because the US, unlike most of the rest of the world, is, nativism notwithstanding, a country of immigrants, or of “laws, not men “ (i.e. people of any particular ethnicity or religion). China is pure “blood and soil” like virtually all Asian countries

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