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Avoiding World War III in the Caucasus
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“The Caucasus is Ground Zero in the New Cold War between the U.S. and Russia.”

I wrote that several years ago, and it’s still true, particularly after Christian Armenia decisively repulsed a mid-July attack by Muslim Azerbaijan.

Perhaps dozens of Azeris died in the battles, including a major-general, colonel, and two majors. Armenia reported far fewer deaths and captured a new defensive position, even though Azerbaijan possesses a bigger arsenal, quadruple the GDP, and more than triple Armenia’s population.

Azerbaijan attacked Armenia’s northeastern border and has done so before. Typically, though, Azerbaijan attacks Artsakh (Karabagh), the de facto-independent Armenian-majority region that voted some thirty years ago for freedom from Azerbaijan, which rejects that vote.

Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin deceitfully annexed Artsakh and the ancient Armenian region of Nakhichevan to Azerbaijan in the 1920s. Far from being ancient itself, Azerbaijan was invented only in 1918.

Why should any of this matter to the rest of the world?

Why It Matters

  • Major gas and oil pipelines originate in Azerbaijan. They cross Georgia and NATO member Turkey with fuel bound for Europe and elsewhere. Georgia and Azerbaijan are thereby linked to the West. These pipelines are at risk as they pass only about 12 to 30 miles from the July fighting and from Artsakh.
  • The Caucasus is the US/NATO/EU’s doorway (via Turkey) into the energy-rich Caspian Sea Basin and then into Russia’s vulnerable Turkic-Muslim underbelly in Central Asia. Russia regards this as an existential threat.
  • Armenia enjoys excellent relations with the US/NATO/EU. But for security reasons it aligns itself with the nearest major Christian power: Russia. In sympathy with its Turkic Azerbaijani ally, Turkey has closed its border with Armenia since 1994. Armenia, therefore, has become the geopolitical pivot point for whoever wishes to dominate the Caucasus.
  • Turkey has long threatened Armenia, and has placed itself squarely on Azerbaijan’s side in the recent conflict. That may produce a Turkish confrontation with Russia, in addition to those in Syria and Libya.
  • Azerbaijan is threatening to bomb Armenia’s Metsamor nuclear power plant. This would spread deadly radiation to Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran, Turkey, and elsewhere.

Armenian-Western relations go back thousands of years. The US/NATO/EU (we’ll term it the “Western Bloc”) has been very friendly to Armenia and Artsakh and aided them economically for decades.

Landlocked Armenia, however, depends on Russia for most of its gas and weapons. Moscow also controls much of Armenia’s energy network.

Armenia (pop. 3 million), nevertheless, remains under threat from Azerbaijan (pop. 10 million) and Turkey (pop. 82 million) since the USSR’s dissolution in 1991.

Armenia under Siege

Turkey committed genocide against Armenians in 1915-23. The Armenian Highlands and everything else Armenian, particularly in what are now eastern and southern Turkey, were destroyed or confiscated. Azeris joined in that genocide in the Caucasus.

The Armenian Genocide isn’t mere history. The threat of Genocide 2.0 always looms.

Turkey and Azerbaijan (motto: “two countries, one nation”) won’t come to terms with Armenia’s existence. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev says all of Armenia should be part of Azerbaijan — without Armenians, of course.

The July 19 cover of the Turkish newspaper Diriliş Postası (Resurrection Post), headlined “Karabagh or Death,” portrays Azerbaijan as encompassing Artsakh and southern Armenia.

Turkey is still enamored with pan-Turkism, just as during WWI and the Armenian Genocide. Turkey envisions leading a federation that includes Azerbaijan and the Turkic-Muslim countries of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) — all the way to China’s Xinjiang Province.

Soldiers in Turkish-Azerbaijani military drills last year wore arm patches depicting such a pan-Turkic entity.

Participants in recent worldwide anti-Armenian demonstrations flashed the Grey Wolves (Bozkurtlar) hand signal. Grey Wolves is a neo-fascist, pan-Turkist organization responsible for hundreds of assassinations and murders.

While the European Allies (and, implicitly, America) militarily opposed Ottoman Turkey’s pan-Turkism in WWI, the Western Bloc implicitly supports pan-Turkism today.

Armenia is a geopolitical impediment to pan-Turkism. That’s a key reason Russia needs Armenia. Russians are too proud to admit it though.

However, Russia has increasingly been cozying up to Azerbaijan and Turkey. Therefore, despite the Armenian-Russian mutual defense treaty and a Russian base in Armenia near the Turkish border, Armenia isn’t always certain of Russian support, particularly against Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijani Threats

Azerbaijan has violated the ceasefire agreement between it and Armenia/Artsakh thousands of times since 1994. Armenian forces are in defensive mode. They have little reason to violate the ceasefire. Azerbaijan rejects proposals for installing autonomous gunfire-detection equipment on the line of contact.

President Aliyev refuses even to negotiate with Artsakh, a stable democracy. That’s hardly a recipe for peace.

Armenia is democratic and reformist. Azerbaijan is autocratic. It imprisons journalists and human rights activists at an astonishing rate. Europe’s Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) named Aliyev its 2012 “Organized Crime and Corruption Person of the Year.” U.S. diplomatic cables described him as a mafia-like figure.

Aliyev‘s “Azerbaijani Laundromat” bribed European officials and laundered billions.

In 2004, Azeri serviceman Ramil Safarov axed to death an Armenian lieutenant in his sleep at a NATO exercise in Hungary. He was sentenced to life and imprisoned. Hungary eventually released him to Azerbaijan which welcomed him as a national hero. Armenian civilians have been tortured and beheaded by invading Azeri soldiers.

To ‘prove’ Armenians never lived in Nakhichevan, in 2005 the Azerbaijani military used pickaxes and dump trucks to destroy thousands of iconic headstones in a ninth century Armenian cemetery. It was caught on video.

During the twentieth century, Azerbaijan emptied Nakhichevan of its Armenians and was doing similarly in Artsakh before Armenians put a stop to it.

No wonder Artsakh says it will never again submit to Azeri rule.

Turkish threats

Turkey was set to invade Armenia in 1993 during a coup against Russian President Boris Yeltsin led by Ruslan Khasbulatov, the pro-Turkish Chechen and Supreme Soviet speaker. Fortunately, the coup failed.

In 1993, Turkish President Turgut Ozal threatened Armenia “in case they had not learned their lesson in 1915.”

Turkish President Erdogan recently menaced Armenia using a backhanded reference to the 1915 Genocide: “We will continue to fulfill this mission, which our grandfathers have carried out for centuries, in the Caucasus again.”

Turkey is supplying Azerbaijan with Bayraktar drones (based on Israeli designs), T-129 ATAK helicopters, and TRG-300 Tiger rocket systems. Turkey has sent F-16 jets to Azerbaijan for joint military exercises.

Yet the Western Bloc has said and done nothing to restrain Turkey.

Turkey denies reports it will send jihadists to fight for Azerbaijan. In the past, however, Turkey has sent its Grey Wolves, and Azerbaijan has recruited Afghan/Pakistani/Chechen mujahedin, to battle Armenians.

The Azerbaijani-Israeli-Jewish Axis

President Aliyev once compared Azerbaijan–Israeli relations to an iceberg: “Nine-tenths of it is below the surface.”

Israel sells Azerbaijan billions in advanced weapons (many used against Armenia and Artsakh) while Israel gets 40% of its oil from Azerbaijan and facilities to spy on and counter Iran.

Azerbaijan’s “lobby in the U.S.,” revealed Aliyev, “is the Jewish community.”

The American Jewish Committee’s Executive Director David Harris (aka Jews’ “foreign minister”), for instance, received Aliyev’s “Order of Friendship” award.

Numerous principled Jewish/Israeli writers are friendly to Armenians. Still, the Israeli- Azerbaijani alliance has induced many Jewish/Israeli writers to gleefully malign Armenia. Examples include Brenda Shaffer and Nurit Greenger.

It’s reminiscent of how Jewish American organizations — ADL, AIPAC, AJC, and others — have colluded with Turkey and Israel (in friendlier days) to hypocritically deny/diminish the Armenian Genocide and defeat Armenian Genocide resolutions in Congress.

Thus, the Azerbaijani-Israeli-Jewish axis is a clone of the disreputable Turkish-Israeli-Jewish one.

What’s Needed

Under relentless pressure and against all odds, Armenia and Artsakh continue to hold out against foreign actors who wish to deny them their very existence.

Regardless, from a practical, if not moral, standpoint, the Western Bloc and Russia should rein in Azeri and Turkish aggression unless they wish to see the region explode.

Much of the author’s work can be found at www.armeniapedia.org/wiki/David_Boyajian.

 
• Category: Foreign Policy, History • Tags: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Caucasus, Russia 
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  1. the “western bloc” is controlled by a sanhedrin

    of Zionist banksters and billionaires. (((They)))

    will do nothing for Armenia. Either Putin’s Russia

    will rescue Armenia as it did Syria, or by and by

    Armenia – and Armenians – will be extincted. This is,

    after all, what the Jews and their Black, Brown, Yellow, and Muslim

    hired killers

    plan for all Whites and Christians.

    • LOL: 36 ulster
  2. gT says:

    If Russia wanted Azerbaijan gone Azerbaijan would be gone. Russia can set up irregular forces much more potent and effective than NATO’s ISIS drama queens ever were, but Russia is just not interested. Even in Afghanistan Russia could make things extremely difficult for the Americans but as usual Russia is just not interested.

    Russia is just doing enough to stalemate matters and then sitting back and waiting for the inevitable collapse of the US dollar and its hegemony.

    So Armenia will always exist because no-one can steamroller the Red Army.

  3. This article provided an overview of events at a 10,000-foot level.
    On the ground, events leading up to the current flareup between Armenia and Azerbaijan are strange, and we are left to explain the losses uncured by Azerbaijan. The best data available shows that on July 12, an Azerbaijani UAZ military jeep was approaching an Armenian military post — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rb8uBuKVWEI. The vehicle was warned off with the Azerbaijani soldiers fleeing the scene. They returned with reinforcements and repulsed. Fighting escalated from this point in time.

    Since Armenia proper was attacked, Armenia called for an emergency meeting of the CSTO. It soon became apparent that Armenia was able to manage the situation without dragging Russia and perhaps other CSTO member states into the fighting.

    Something seemed very odd in these series of events. It appeared as though the Azerbaijani jeep that approached the Armenian post might have been accidental, calling into question Azerbaijani command and control. Worse, with 48 hours, Azerbaijan lost a Major General, a Colonel, two Majors, and scores of soldiers. Many of the Azerbaijanis deaths were the result of two attempts by elite Azerbaijani forces to re-take highland real estate re-captured by Armenians. What high-ranking Azerbaijani officers were doing at the front boggles one’s mind. A leading hypothesis is Azerbaijani military incompetence.

    The Armenians shot down a $30M Israeli-built Hermes 900 reconnaissance drone. The Azerbaijani president, Aliyev, fired his foreign minister on charges of pandering to Armenians. In reaction to Azerbaijani losses, tens of thousands of Azerbaijanis protested on the streets of their capital, Baku, chanting “Allahu Akbar,” “Death to Armenia,” and “Take us to War.” Azerbaijan prevented a significant call-for-autonomy demonstration by its Talysh minority. Aliyev called all exiled Azerbaijani writers and artists Armenian spies and jailed his former defense minister on treason charges.

    The situation was bad enough in Azerbaijan that Turkey, its big brother, came to its psychological rescue by holding war games next to Armenian borders with Azerbaijan. Turkey subsequently sold attack drones to Azerbaijan. These war games appear almost finished.

    Yerevan, Armenia

    • Thanks: Denis
  4. Anonymous[376] • Disclaimer says:

    Boyajian’s timely and succinct article is early warning that if Turkey and Azerbaijan continue their bellicose policy towards Armenia the conflict can spread beyond the Caucasua. Agreed.

  5. A.R. says:

    Hehehe what utter garbage…

  6. Jake says:

    Jews always will ally with Turkic peoples against any nation perceived to be even loosely Christian. Jews also will ally with any Arabic nation against whatever is perceived to be Christian.

    And Jews also will ally with any Turks or Arabs against Iranians.

    Iran better figure out that it needs to be proactive in neutralizing its Turkic problem so it does not have to face it and its Arabic problem at the same time, with world Jewry and its Anglo-Protestant lap dog backing the pincer destruction of Iran.

    That proactive position requires Iran to become a full ally of Russia and Armenia, against any other Moslems with a bone to pick with Iran. And the ethnic bones of hatred against Iran by Turks and Arabs are even more fierce than the hatred of Shia.

  7. It should matter to the rest of the world. Regional disputes have global dimensions. Those global connections can lead to world war: twice in the last century; and the pattern of history now points to a third.
    https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/

  8. Patlamish says:

    This is useful and accurate information about the region and politics leading up to present times. It is refreshing to see reporting that is independent of — and therefore not tainted by — the oil lobby. Thank you.

  9. Exile says:

    The Armenian-Turkish conflict is entirely the business of regional powers including Russia, Turkey and Armenia.

    The United States has no legitimate interests in this region no matter how loudly Armenians lobby and how lavisly Armenians bribe America’s swamp-lord politicians.

    Armenia is just another well-moneyed, overly-influential and perpetually agitating ethnic minority that seeks to buy U.S. money and Janissary military force.

    This comment section is and will continue to be full of raucous Armenians telling Americans on the other side of the planet why our blood and treasure must be spent to save them.

    Jews, Ukrainians (but I repeat myself), Armenians, Uyghurs, Tibetans, Hong Kong, Belarus – this garbage never ends.

    After a year of total domestic chaos in the U.S., it’s an utter joke that more entitled aggrieved foreigners are still demanding we solve their problems for them.

  10. @Exile

    Funny. This region is ALWAYS of interest to the US, UK, France, Germany when they want it to be. Remember WWI? Baku? Cilicia? Incirlik? Oh, Please.

    • Replies: @Exile
  11. @Jake

    Hey Jake,
    It is perhaps in your best interest to remain quiet and let others believe that you’re a fool, than to open your mouth and prove to others that you are one, indeed. For the following reasons:
    Iran’s closest allies are Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, forming what they call the axis of resistance, and all are Arab nations with large Shia populations. Furthermore, Iran is already an ally of Russia and China, and on good terms with Turkey.

  12. Exile says:
    @Me Too, Three and Four

    Every one of those entanglements was a mistake and a huge net loss for Americans and our national interests.

  13. anon[160] • Disclaimer says:

    … decisively repulsed a mid-July attack by Muslim Azerbaijan.

    Can’t help but think again of the Invade-The-World-Invite-The-World neo-con chickenhawk “Dubya” and his wind-up robot cliche, “The Religion of Peace”.
    Also I hope Trump regains distance from the neo-con chickenhawks. Trump needs to follow his instinct to avoid war, bring more forces home.
    Biden+(his invisible handlers) would vigorously inflict Invade-The-World-Invite-The-World policies on innocent nations, as did “Dubya”.

  14. @Exile

    The American political system is completely compromised by almost unimaginable wealth accumulated by gamers of the system and their fiat printing presses. Through in the blackmail by the Mossad pedophile operation and voila, there is no real government. Yes Armenians have their favored politicians as do the Turks and Azeris (the latter mostly joos). It is how the government operates now.. It stinks and it is irreversible without collapse (which may be sooner than later).

  15. Denis says:
    @Exile

    After a year of total domestic chaos in the U.S., it’s an utter joke that more entitled aggrieved foreigners are still demanding we solve their problems for them.

    America grants military support and allegiance to the Turks through the NATO alliance. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to ask America to withdraw that support in light of Turkey’s unacceptable, serially violent behaviour.

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