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The people who collect the wealth we extort from the rest of the world have NO desire to relinquish it. They know that the profits derived from the Triffin Paradox go away if we don’t spend a ridiculous amount on “defense” to enforce Ledeen’s threat. That they earn without labor disconnects them from reality, and their politics drifts further and further left, as NYC has done as it moved from the manufacturing center of the US economy to a place that mostly shuffles symbols in a virtual world.
It should come as no surprise that defense and intelligence have contributed mightily to hobbling Trump’s efforts to end wars, and come to terms with Russia.
Since the connected/protected benefit from profit without labor, someone has to labor without profit to supply them. That has meant that the profit Must depart manufacturing, and American workers simply refused to work to funnel profits up to the predatory Professional/Managerial class, so their jobs were sent overseas for the lower classes; with everyone below the PMC now happily Zooming in from home, the outsourcing of their jobs to preserve the income of the stock option class is next.
There is a big difference between this extorted wealth and the productive capacity that deteriorates as a consequence of receiving it. Swiping your credit card in return for consumer goods and services is a nice way to live while it lasts, but it induces a habituation of living beyond your means. When the card declines and the collector comes, it’s accompanied by a seismic lifestyle reckoning. Even if you have the means to credibly tell the collector to go pound sand because he’s not getting his money back, you don’t have the ability to generate the wealth to sustain the lifestyle you’ve grown accustomed to.
Tom’s last excerpted sentence is one we’ve discussed previously. The idea is highlighted again here because it’s worth emphasizing what a body blow this is going to be to the middle American way of life. It’s great to trade the half hour drive into the city for a thirty second commute down the bedroom stairs–great until the suits realize that if the work can be done remotely from the other end of the city then it can be done from the other end of the world, and for a lot less, that is.
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Wonder how the prevalence of a “U.S. Person” only requirement on so much of the Defence Industry will spin the motivations?
Outsourcing was already well established, the problem has been that the people at the other end of the world are largely useless. At the Investment Bank I worked at the outsourcing to India or regional cities had reached its limit, the dynamic was instead robotics and automation which was actually ending the jobs in India with highly competent supervisors based in London instead to oversee the robotics. Jobs like personal trainer, surely the growth industry of recent times, can’t be outsourced.
I always told my younger colleagues to document their gains and benchmark them in such a way that shows they are consistent market leaders. That they truly add value. Most never bothered and lately have been cut loose or asked to take a pay cut; I was not. It helps to have really big numbers, but every little helps.
I joked with my board when I submitted my outrageous travel budget last year that I can do my job anywhere in the world, but I prefer to be in the room for most meetings because our local colleagues can only be trusted as far as they can be thrown, and when I am in the room I can throw them out the window. I told them about a company I used to work for that outsourced a shit-load of back office work to India, and later found that the locals were using our investments to run the same sort of work for other companies on the sly, pocketing all the profits for themselves. It always helps to have a good story or two to help folks into seeing the value you add.
Think global, act local.
Thank in advance. I'm just looking for anecdotes to add to my rhetorical quiver.Replies: @The Alarmist
….But a lot of things *can’t* be done from the other end of the world.
Yeah, I think some jobs such as phone customer service have been outsourced, and that has been mostly a disaster, you have to talk to someone with an unintelligible Indian accent who doesn’t give any more information that you already found online. Other jobs, I am not sure they can be outsourced, although they may be automated, also, maids and servants will always be needed, therefore immigration is preferred to outsourcing. Anyway, it’s the same, they win, you lose.
And most of them doing jobs that don't need to be done. The main reason for having servants is to demonstrate one's wealth. Having servants is a form of conspicuous consumption. Consoicuous, useless consumption. It's all about status. How can you be sure that people will know you're rich unless you have servants?Replies: @Dumbo
Yes, any job that could be outsourced at sufficient quality already has been.
Some Western workers may choose to live elsewhere, while working online, but talent, even mediocre talent, has long been the limiting factor in most white collar jobs; not corporate inability to imagine outsourcing.
Instead, software automation is the newest destructive force. Will it make everyone become Tik Tok clowns, in a mixed dystopian/utopian world of everyone working creatively/as entertainers, or are ever newer professional roles developed? I’m not sure. Hopefully not the latter, with just endless diversity indoctrination from sunrise to sunset.
I second Gordo’s Thanks, but I’m having a little trouble parsing the second paragraph.
“I prefer to be in the room for most meetings” refers to “local” (i.e., globally distributed) meetings, not to the board meeting, correct?
Does this mean that the company you used to work for paid to build a back office shop in India, but the Indian back office also took paid work from other customers who hadn’t paid for the build, presumably in contravention of some sort of exclusivity contract? If so, I presume this is also an indictment of Indian courts’ failure to enforce contract law?
Thank in advance. I’m just looking for anecdotes to add to my rhetorical quiver.
Civilization, life in cities, has never been about the “citizen”, it has always been about the elites and resources. Revolutions can create new elites, but revolutions will never eliminate the elite as a class within civilization.
The more interchangeable one is, the less valuable one is. If one contributes, one is an asset. If not, one is a liability – no matter one’s class.
Civilization today is awash in liabilities.
The credit expansion has been hiding these hard truths behind a facade of plenty. No matter who takes over, the hard truth will remain. The normal course of civilization is that when expansions end, liabilities are shed.
You may disagree. We make our choice and take our chance.
While they might have a utilitarian justification for their foundation, they also make it easier to funnel wealth from the χώρα and μεσόγεια to the ἄστυ .
They eventually always morph into a mechanism for politically-driven wealth concentration[1], with wealth again funnelled from demos to the polis (polis denotes the administrative centre of the city, and/or the political class: it's not just the city as a whole, or city-dwellers as a class).
The larger the number of inhabitants a city has, the greater the bucket of money on offer for ticket-clippers of various types. The citizenry is a combination of feedstock and livestock.
[1] Wealth concentration that derives from private action is not a problem - it is a natural consequence of differences in talent, effort, and luck across individuals. Conversely, when it derives from the political means, wealth concentration is a deep problem. Most modern wealth concentration is not occurring naturally, and hasn't been for a couple of centuries: it is a system of patronage.
This is already happening right now by the way. I work in a niche technology. I get recruiters messages every week on LinkedIn. Everything is now “full remote” and I’m seeing salaries that are 15 to 30% lower. Luckily we’re still talking muh 6 figures… for now. This is in the very early stages, it’s going to get so bad.
It may strike you as off-topic, but the way to turn the political economy around starts with realigning incentives from the ground up in cities — by privatizing them. When that happens there is an incentive to make the polities smaller because it gives the stakeholders more control over the value of their real-estate. It’s also extremely efficient and much less democratic.
My UK employer in a fit of utter madness negotiated a deal with an Indian company to build an all-embracing, rules-driven administration system – on the basis of the projected cost savings, they then bid successfully do the admin for a number of other companies.
The (to me) remarkable feature of the deal was that the code would be a black box – the people commissioning and paying for it could never look under the bonnet.
The system was not good. I did a bit of testing to help out and the error count was gigantic. Worse, new code releases would suddenly re-introduce errors that had been fixed three iterations ago. And at our end we had literally hundreds of contract analysts, bright people, on £450 a day, who could probably have got their hands dirty and built it themselves quicker.
The director and the guy who negotiated the contract left, the system was dropped after several years and hundreds of millions spent.
But in the meantime, the company had signed contracts to do other people’s admin at a cheap rate. So the admin staff got zero or tiny pay rises for the forseeable, because the company were losing a lot of money on the contracts, as well as the money they’d wasted on the project.
Don’t ever make the assumption that private companies can’t be at least as wasteful as governments.
Thank in advance. I'm just looking for anecdotes to add to my rhetorical quiver.Replies: @The Alarmist
Correct on both counts. Nobody’s travelling nowadays, so I’m kind of coasting on years of personal relationships built up over dinners, drinks, golf, sporting events, etc. Someone starting out cold using video or telecons can only dream to be as effective and will miss all the backchannel comms that steer where things are really going.
What was galling about India is that it was a sub, but nobody thought to install an inpat from HQ to keep an eye on things because back office is never really taken seriously as mission critical, and besides, expat packages are expensive … it is cheaper to visit once in a while, right? I like to joke that with that sort of attitude, we should simply fire the back office and put a bag on the door for the customers to leave the money they owe us and the vendors to take what we owe them.
One thing that's made Zoomworld work is prior connections, as you point out. Once those social bonds fray we have a problem. How do you onboard a new employee (if we ever do that again) in this environment? Virtual Zoom team meeting isn't going to do it.
If anyone knows of people on boarded,I'd love to hear how it was done.Replies: @Dan
De-Ba’athification eliminated nearly 100% of the Professional / Managerial class in Iraq. This turned out very badly. Many in the Professional / Managerial class provide needed skills.
Most problems are created by the Executive / Elite class. They push commandments down to the non-elites. White collar and blue collar employees often share similar outcomes.
PEACE 😇
A lot of former Mukhabarat guys got ISIS off the ground as a direct result of Shi'ite thuggery.
>Most problems are created by the Executive / Elite class. They push commandments down to the non-elites. White collar and blue collar employees often share similar outcomes.
I do think America's problems start with the elites, but managerial/HR culture has messed up every social strata of American society. We're no longer a nation that does things, we're a nation that tries to get the boss to say the words we want.
When the comet streaked down from the sky and left a 100 mile crater in the Yucatan, the dinosaurs were complacently unaware that they too were witnessing and extinction event. A few of the lucky ones who were better adapted eventually transformed the species into modern day birds. But the majority endured death and destruction on a biblical scale.
The managerial class can be replaced by an automatic script that generates variations on “I’ll make it happen” to the elite class, and “I know it sucks, but that’s your job” to their subordinates. Code it to be unavailable regularly due to “strategy meetings” and nobody will ever know the difference. After 5-10 years, reprogram it to be a freelance consultant script and it will support itself.
It would be a great time to review jobs are resistant to outsourcing. Most of these jobs never went on lockdown.
– the building trades such a plumber, electrician, carpenter, HVAC, physical Internet and cable installation
– medical: doctors, nurses and technicians
– EMS
– teachers, given that schools will one day reopen
– police and security (many are actually making more than ever with record overtime)
– transport of goods for online retail
– warehouse operations for online retail
– auto mechanics
– machinery repair and maintenance of all types, from trucks to farm equipment to machines used in order fulfillment, manufacture and much more
– gardening and landscaping
– energy, such as oil production and refining
– food production (farming, meatpacking) where you can find such jobs
– road crews
– park service / rangers
– almost all government employment (nearly all of which requires US citizenship)
– real estate agents
– commercial property management
– work for utilities: water companies, electric companies, gas companies
– power plants (this is different from electricity delivery)
– forestry and mining
– waste management
– scrapping and refurbishing
– elder care
– child care
– air BnB and landlording (i.e. private property management)
– longshoremen
– trucking (self driving systems are a relative bust, and in any case you need someone to navigate cities, load and unload, maintain the vehicle and protect the good from theft along the way)
This list is just off the top of my head without consulting any sources. There are a lot of blue collar jobs here and it should also be noted that for most of these jobs there are manager and supervisor jobs that are white collar or college degree-appropriate.
I don’t know how large a share of total jobs this is, but I purposefully off things like in-store retail, restaurants, hotels and airlines that are obviously in steep employment decline.
The economy will muddle on. There is a lot of ruin in a nation. Young people, and parents wondering what there will be anything for their kids to do should keep all these jobs in mind. All real, important essential work that is resistant to outsourcing.
Between jobs like this, frugal habits and faith to get you through emotional trials, any hard-working and reasonably intelligent person should be able to find their way to something like a middle class life.
A minority of smart and connected people will find ways to take advantage of all sorts of arbitrage opportunities and make a killing. But this post is not for those people. This post is for the common man (American flag buffets slowly in the background). God I love those people.
Audacious Epigone, I think this is worth a COTW or separate post, no?
– the building trades such a plumber, electrician, carpenter, HVAC, physical Internet and cable installation
Union, $30-40/hour with health. Non union $20-30/hour no health.
– medical: doctors, nurses and technicians
Still well paid. Should be good.
– EMS
Government job. $60-80K/year, full health and retirement.
– teachers, given that schools will one day reopen
Government job $60-80-120K(principals, supervisors)/year, full health and retirement.
– police and security (many are actually making more than ever with record overtime)
Government job $60-120(lieutenant with 20 years)-150(captains, inspectors)K/year, full health and retirement
– transport of goods for online retail
OTR CDL driver. The absolute worst job in the country. $30-50K per year. Work 11/hours per day, 10 hours sleep at night (yeah, in trucking business 24-11 does equal 10). Sometimes 6 days per week. Days off are in the middle of nowhere. Days without load means no pay. No life. Lousy diet. No exercise. Nasty, brutish and short.
– warehouse operations for online retail
$15/hour, limited health benefits.
– auto mechanics
Interesting work. Must hustle. If you own your own place can make decent money, maybe $100K per yearl
– machinery repair and maintenance of all types, from trucks to farm equipment to machines used in order fulfillment, manufacture and much more
Interesting work. Probably 30-50K per year. Limited health benefits.
– gardening and landscaping
Great work if you like it. Must hustle. Have your own business. In well-to-do suburbs can make a decent living, maybe $100K per year, that is if you own your own business.
– energy, such as oil production and refining
interesting work. Good, hard, physical labor. Can earn $80K/peary
– food production (farming, meatpacking) where you can find such jobs
Meatpackers earn $15/hour for a job that is dangerous, difficult and disgusting. Immigrants only now, but then again we are all immigrants now.
– road crews
Government job. $60K per year. Full health and retirement.
– park service / rangers
Government job. $60-100K per yer. Full health and retirement.
– almost all government employment (nearly all of which requires US citizenship)
Bingo.
– real estate agents
Tedious sales job, but some people love it. Generally, $50-100K per year.
– commercial property management
80K per year. Health but for retirement you are on your own.
– work for utilities: water companies, electric companies, gas companies
Quasi-government job. 60-120-150K per year. Full health and retirement.
– power plants (this is different from electricity delivery)
Quasi-government job. 60-120-150K
– forestry and mining
Government job
– waste management
Government and private. 50-80K per year. Full health and retirement for government. Just health for private.
– scrapping and refurbishing
Junk yard. Can make a lot of money with a junk yard. Must be entrepreneurial.
– elder care
$12/hour. No benefits.
– child care
$12/hour. No benefits.
– air BnB and landlording (i.e. private property management)
Forget about it. You will lose money.
– longshoremen
Great union job. $80-150K. Full health, benefit. Have to know somebody to get in this union.
– trucking (self driving systems are a relative bust, and in any case you need someone to navigate cities, load and unload, maintain the vehicle and protect the good from theft along the way)
Again, the absolute worst job in America, and about 1 million Americans do it. You work 11 hours per day, and must be ready to work 10 hours after you have signed off. Then you may be stuck in the middle of nowhere with no load for 1, 2, 3, 4 days, not earning a dime. No exercise. Lousy diet, just coffee, soft drinks, hot dogs and other crap. And, no, you don't see the country. Just see the same boring stretch of interstate over and over and over and over and over......Nasty, brutish and short.Replies: @DanHessinMD, @dfordoom
AE — Your dire pessimism brings out my optimism. I usually regard myself as a pessimist but I fold.
I declare that economy has areas of tremendous strength.
Some of the most important economic sectors are 100% local
– Energy independence recently for the first time in more than a generation
– Massive food overproduction and export
– All utilities, repair and building are done locally
– The Amazon and Walmart and Home Depot supply chains get you any product in existence that you need for the best price available in the world instantly, with little effort. This makes manufacturing a brutally competitive sector with small margins. At the risk of sounding like a Libertarian the American consumer is helped by our market. If you can’t manufacture something, the next best option is to be able to get it for the cheapest price.
A strong case can be made that food and energy and utilities are even more important than manufacturing to make sure people keep a decent standard of living. Plus we can trade food and energy to anyone who manufactures. It is tolerable to make your manufactured goods last longer or get used things on Craigslist or autotrader.com. You can hold on to your existing stuff for a long time if you have to. It is not tolerable to have insufficient food, energy or utilities. Japan runs a big trade surplus with us but they are also food – insecure. Also things are far more expensive there. China, too is food and energy insecure.
China engaged in a brutal race to the bottom on manufacturing, absorbing horrible pollution, terrible working conditions and low wages to gain market share. We are turning this into a win by absolutely crushing them on price. With Amazon and Walmart and our ability to pay the lowest world price, they have no pricing power and low margins.
If we can’t win in manufacturing, this is the next best thing.
Chin up, things are better than you think, and I say this as someone who sees the glass darkly.
Agree, however one point about that concept, “the suits.”
For years, I wore a suit to work every day and worked very hard to do the best I could financially for my customers. There were thousands of people like me doing jobs like that, and we didn’t know or see the overlords that AE really means when he refers to “the suits.” (Well, I had occasion to meet some of them a few times…)
During the 2008 “collapse” (organized financial extortion) I lost my job — and I did jujutsu on my employers, “the suits.” I turned around and took a handful of my customers away from them. They were perfectly happy to benefit from my services at literally half the price. Without the massive, corporate overhead, I have been charging approximately 1/2 for the same thing I did as an employee.
Guys like me don’t work “remotely.” We work for ourselves and our customers. I only need to charge enough in fees to pay my bills and ensure a decent retirement for myself and my wife. The assholes I worked for can’t do that, and I really don’t think they are smart enough to.
So, let’s get this clear: Everybody in a modern world needs financial services to some degree. (You do want a comfortable home, good food at the store, central heat and clean water, don’t you?) Stable currency and available credit have been our lifeblood for a very long time. The trick is to use these things without allowing anyone to get too much control over them.
Sure, there will always be fraud. That’s why we have a justice system. Yes, I realize even that is corrupt now. Did I ever claim that anything now is functioning normally?
Obviously, nothing is normal now. Otherwise, how could I make my living wearing shorts and a T-shirt?
- the building trades such a plumber, electrician, carpenter, HVAC, physical Internet and cable installation
- medical: doctors, nurses and technicians
- EMS
- teachers, given that schools will one day reopen
- police and security (many are actually making more than ever with record overtime)
- transport of goods for online retail
- warehouse operations for online retail
- auto mechanics
- machinery repair and maintenance of all types, from trucks to farm equipment to machines used in order fulfillment, manufacture and much more
- gardening and landscaping
- energy, such as oil production and refining
- food production (farming, meatpacking) where you can find such jobs
- road crews
- park service / rangers
- almost all government employment (nearly all of which requires US citizenship)
- real estate agents
- commercial property management
- work for utilities: water companies, electric companies, gas companies
- power plants (this is different from electricity delivery)
- forestry and mining
- waste management
- scrapping and refurbishing
- elder care
- child care
- air BnB and landlording (i.e. private property management)
- longshoremen
- trucking (self driving systems are a relative bust, and in any case you need someone to navigate cities, load and unload, maintain the vehicle and protect the good from theft along the way)
This list is just off the top of my head without consulting any sources. There are a lot of blue collar jobs here and it should also be noted that for most of these jobs there are manager and supervisor jobs that are white collar or college degree-appropriate.
I don't know how large a share of total jobs this is, but I purposefully off things like in-store retail, restaurants, hotels and airlines that are obviously in steep employment decline.
The economy will muddle on. There is a lot of ruin in a nation. Young people, and parents wondering what there will be anything for their kids to do should keep all these jobs in mind. All real, important essential work that is resistant to outsourcing.
Between jobs like this, frugal habits and faith to get you through emotional trials, any hard-working and reasonably intelligent person should be able to find their way to something like a middle class life.
A minority of smart and connected people will find ways to take advantage of all sorts of arbitrage opportunities and make a killing. But this post is not for those people. This post is for the common man (American flag buffets slowly in the background). God I love those people.
Audacious Epigone, I think this is worth a COTW or separate post, no?Replies: @Daniel H, @Excal, @Audacious Epigone
It would be a great time to review jobs are resistant to outsourcing. Most of these jobs never went on lockdown.
– the building trades such a plumber, electrician, carpenter, HVAC, physical Internet and cable installation
Union, $30-40/hour with health. Non union $20-30/hour no health.
– medical: doctors, nurses and technicians
Still well paid. Should be good.
– EMS
Government job. $60-80K/year, full health and retirement.
– teachers, given that schools will one day reopen
Government job $60-80-120K(principals, supervisors)/year, full health and retirement.
– police and security (many are actually making more than ever with record overtime)
Government job $60-120(lieutenant with 20 years)-150(captains, inspectors)K/year, full health and retirement
– transport of goods for online retail
OTR CDL driver. The absolute worst job in the country. $30-50K per year. Work 11/hours per day, 10 hours sleep at night (yeah, in trucking business 24-11 does equal 10). Sometimes 6 days per week. Days off are in the middle of nowhere. Days without load means no pay. No life. Lousy diet. No exercise. Nasty, brutish and short.
– warehouse operations for online retail
$15/hour, limited health benefits.
– auto mechanics
Interesting work. Must hustle. If you own your own place can make decent money, maybe $100K per yearl
– machinery repair and maintenance of all types, from trucks to farm equipment to machines used in order fulfillment, manufacture and much more
Interesting work. Probably 30-50K per year. Limited health benefits.
– gardening and landscaping
Great work if you like it. Must hustle. Have your own business. In well-to-do suburbs can make a decent living, maybe $100K per year, that is if you own your own business.
– energy, such as oil production and refining
interesting work. Good, hard, physical labor. Can earn $80K/peary
– food production (farming, meatpacking) where you can find such jobs
Meatpackers earn $15/hour for a job that is dangerous, difficult and disgusting. Immigrants only now, but then again we are all immigrants now.
– road crews
Government job. $60K per year. Full health and retirement.
– park service / rangers
Government job. $60-100K per yer. Full health and retirement.
– almost all government employment (nearly all of which requires US citizenship)
Bingo.
– real estate agents
Tedious sales job, but some people love it. Generally, $50-100K per year.
– commercial property management
80K per year. Health but for retirement you are on your own.
– work for utilities: water companies, electric companies, gas companies
Quasi-government job. 60-120-150K per year. Full health and retirement.
– power plants (this is different from electricity delivery)
Quasi-government job. 60-120-150K
– forestry and mining
Government job
– waste management
Government and private. 50-80K per year. Full health and retirement for government. Just health for private.
– scrapping and refurbishing
Junk yard. Can make a lot of money with a junk yard. Must be entrepreneurial.
– elder care
$12/hour. No benefits.
– child care
$12/hour. No benefits.
– air BnB and landlording (i.e. private property management)
Forget about it. You will lose money.
– longshoremen
Great union job. $80-150K. Full health, benefit. Have to know somebody to get in this union.
– trucking (self driving systems are a relative bust, and in any case you need someone to navigate cities, load and unload, maintain the vehicle and protect the good from theft along the way)
Again, the absolute worst job in America, and about 1 million Americans do it. You work 11 hours per day, and must be ready to work 10 hours after you have signed off. Then you may be stuck in the middle of nowhere with no load for 1, 2, 3, 4 days, not earning a dime. No exercise. Lousy diet, just coffee, soft drinks, hot dogs and other crap. And, no, you don’t see the country. Just see the same boring stretch of interstate over and over and over and over and over……Nasty, brutish and short.
A lot of these things from energy to online retail warehouses to any of the utilities to waste management to roads have engineers who have to have a physical presence but are paid much better than basic workers.
For a lot of others, you can do much better by being a manager or running a small operation.
With elder care or child care for instance, you can own one or more group homes or daycare centers (even out of a residences) and make a middle class income.
With AirBnB I know empty nesters who get a nice boost from spare rooms in their house.
Regarding AE's fear that all jobs that can be done remotely are going away, I am really not so sure and the reason why those jobs should stay here is right here on this blog:
The average IQ of an American college graduate is, say 104. That is pretty good on the global scene. If the global average is something like 85, it is going to be very hard for companies to get very far with that. Where are there giant pools of high IQ English speakers overseas who don't already have 1st world wages? With India we've been scraping the cream off the top for a long time, but below that the human capital is not looking too hot.
Actually things are looking up for American workers IMO.
AE -- here is something that hasn't been talked about. Is Google going to be hiring a bunch of people in countries where the average is 85 and the smarties are at 100?
In fact "hire American" is a great excuse for Google to continue practicing the IQ discrimination they are so fond of.
Among lower wage, high-IQ types overseas: Eastern European, Russian and East Asians have had low fertility for a very long time and there just isn't the huge number of underpaid smarties in those places that there once was. India I already mentioned.
That is to say, I don't think those remote office jobs are going away any time soon!!
In the future seeing a doctor will mean logging on to an automated software program, or talking to a doctor in India remotely.
A lot of routine legal work could also be automated or offshored. It will be the same as medicine - those at the top of the heap will still be OK but those doing the routine donkey work should not be surprised when they're replaced.
– the building trades such a plumber, electrician, carpenter, HVAC, physical Internet and cable installation
Union, $30-40/hour with health. Non union $20-30/hour no health.
– medical: doctors, nurses and technicians
Still well paid. Should be good.
– EMS
Government job. $60-80K/year, full health and retirement.
– teachers, given that schools will one day reopen
Government job $60-80-120K(principals, supervisors)/year, full health and retirement.
– police and security (many are actually making more than ever with record overtime)
Government job $60-120(lieutenant with 20 years)-150(captains, inspectors)K/year, full health and retirement
– transport of goods for online retail
OTR CDL driver. The absolute worst job in the country. $30-50K per year. Work 11/hours per day, 10 hours sleep at night (yeah, in trucking business 24-11 does equal 10). Sometimes 6 days per week. Days off are in the middle of nowhere. Days without load means no pay. No life. Lousy diet. No exercise. Nasty, brutish and short.
– warehouse operations for online retail
$15/hour, limited health benefits.
– auto mechanics
Interesting work. Must hustle. If you own your own place can make decent money, maybe $100K per yearl
– machinery repair and maintenance of all types, from trucks to farm equipment to machines used in order fulfillment, manufacture and much more
Interesting work. Probably 30-50K per year. Limited health benefits.
– gardening and landscaping
Great work if you like it. Must hustle. Have your own business. In well-to-do suburbs can make a decent living, maybe $100K per year, that is if you own your own business.
– energy, such as oil production and refining
interesting work. Good, hard, physical labor. Can earn $80K/peary
– food production (farming, meatpacking) where you can find such jobs
Meatpackers earn $15/hour for a job that is dangerous, difficult and disgusting. Immigrants only now, but then again we are all immigrants now.
– road crews
Government job. $60K per year. Full health and retirement.
– park service / rangers
Government job. $60-100K per yer. Full health and retirement.
– almost all government employment (nearly all of which requires US citizenship)
Bingo.
– real estate agents
Tedious sales job, but some people love it. Generally, $50-100K per year.
– commercial property management
80K per year. Health but for retirement you are on your own.
– work for utilities: water companies, electric companies, gas companies
Quasi-government job. 60-120-150K per year. Full health and retirement.
– power plants (this is different from electricity delivery)
Quasi-government job. 60-120-150K
– forestry and mining
Government job
– waste management
Government and private. 50-80K per year. Full health and retirement for government. Just health for private.
– scrapping and refurbishing
Junk yard. Can make a lot of money with a junk yard. Must be entrepreneurial.
– elder care
$12/hour. No benefits.
– child care
$12/hour. No benefits.
– air BnB and landlording (i.e. private property management)
Forget about it. You will lose money.
– longshoremen
Great union job. $80-150K. Full health, benefit. Have to know somebody to get in this union.
– trucking (self driving systems are a relative bust, and in any case you need someone to navigate cities, load and unload, maintain the vehicle and protect the good from theft along the way)
Again, the absolute worst job in America, and about 1 million Americans do it. You work 11 hours per day, and must be ready to work 10 hours after you have signed off. Then you may be stuck in the middle of nowhere with no load for 1, 2, 3, 4 days, not earning a dime. No exercise. Lousy diet, just coffee, soft drinks, hot dogs and other crap. And, no, you don't see the country. Just see the same boring stretch of interstate over and over and over and over and over......Nasty, brutish and short.Replies: @DanHessinMD, @dfordoom
Thanks for the feedback!
A lot of these things from energy to online retail warehouses to any of the utilities to waste management to roads have engineers who have to have a physical presence but are paid much better than basic workers.
For a lot of others, you can do much better by being a manager or running a small operation.
With elder care or child care for instance, you can own one or more group homes or daycare centers (even out of a residences) and make a middle class income.
With AirBnB I know empty nesters who get a nice boost from spare rooms in their house.
Regarding AE’s fear that all jobs that can be done remotely are going away, I am really not so sure and the reason why those jobs should stay here is right here on this blog:
The average IQ of an American college graduate is, say 104. That is pretty good on the global scene. If the global average is something like 85, it is going to be very hard for companies to get very far with that. Where are there giant pools of high IQ English speakers overseas who don’t already have 1st world wages? With India we’ve been scraping the cream off the top for a long time, but below that the human capital is not looking too hot.
Actually things are looking up for American workers IMO.
AE — here is something that hasn’t been talked about. Is Google going to be hiring a bunch of people in countries where the average is 85 and the smarties are at 100?
In fact “hire American” is a great excuse for Google to continue practicing the IQ discrimination they are so fond of.
Among lower wage, high-IQ types overseas: Eastern European, Russian and East Asians have had low fertility for a very long time and there just isn’t the huge number of underpaid smarties in those places that there once was. India I already mentioned.
That is to say, I don’t think those remote office jobs are going away any time soon!!
It’s great to trade the half hour drive into the city for a thirty second commute down the bedroom stairs–great until the suits realize that if the work can be done remotely from the other end of the city then it can be done from the other end of the world, and for a lot less, that is.
And eventually the suits will realise that most of these jobs don’t need to be done at all.
The few that do need to be done can be done by machines which is even cheaper and more convenient than having them done overseas.
>De-Ba’athification eliminated nearly 100% of the Professional / Managerial class in Iraq. This turned out very badly. Many in the Professional / Managerial class provide needed skills
A lot of former Mukhabarat guys got ISIS off the ground as a direct result of Shi’ite thuggery.
>Most problems are created by the Executive / Elite class. They push commandments down to the non-elites. White collar and blue collar employees often share similar outcomes.
I do think America’s problems start with the elites, but managerial/HR culture has messed up every social strata of American society. We’re no longer a nation that does things, we’re a nation that tries to get the boss to say the words we want.
We may be returning to the world of the 19th century, with a vast servant class. Disorganised, disunited, non-unionised and very poorly paid.
And most of them doing jobs that don’t need to be done. The main reason for having servants is to demonstrate one’s wealth. Having servants is a form of conspicuous consumption. Consoicuous, useless consumption. It’s all about status. How can you be sure that people will know you’re rich unless you have servants?
– the building trades such a plumber, electrician, carpenter, HVAC, physical Internet and cable installation
Union, $30-40/hour with health. Non union $20-30/hour no health.
– medical: doctors, nurses and technicians
Still well paid. Should be good.
– EMS
Government job. $60-80K/year, full health and retirement.
– teachers, given that schools will one day reopen
Government job $60-80-120K(principals, supervisors)/year, full health and retirement.
– police and security (many are actually making more than ever with record overtime)
Government job $60-120(lieutenant with 20 years)-150(captains, inspectors)K/year, full health and retirement
– transport of goods for online retail
OTR CDL driver. The absolute worst job in the country. $30-50K per year. Work 11/hours per day, 10 hours sleep at night (yeah, in trucking business 24-11 does equal 10). Sometimes 6 days per week. Days off are in the middle of nowhere. Days without load means no pay. No life. Lousy diet. No exercise. Nasty, brutish and short.
– warehouse operations for online retail
$15/hour, limited health benefits.
– auto mechanics
Interesting work. Must hustle. If you own your own place can make decent money, maybe $100K per yearl
– machinery repair and maintenance of all types, from trucks to farm equipment to machines used in order fulfillment, manufacture and much more
Interesting work. Probably 30-50K per year. Limited health benefits.
– gardening and landscaping
Great work if you like it. Must hustle. Have your own business. In well-to-do suburbs can make a decent living, maybe $100K per year, that is if you own your own business.
– energy, such as oil production and refining
interesting work. Good, hard, physical labor. Can earn $80K/peary
– food production (farming, meatpacking) where you can find such jobs
Meatpackers earn $15/hour for a job that is dangerous, difficult and disgusting. Immigrants only now, but then again we are all immigrants now.
– road crews
Government job. $60K per year. Full health and retirement.
– park service / rangers
Government job. $60-100K per yer. Full health and retirement.
– almost all government employment (nearly all of which requires US citizenship)
Bingo.
– real estate agents
Tedious sales job, but some people love it. Generally, $50-100K per year.
– commercial property management
80K per year. Health but for retirement you are on your own.
– work for utilities: water companies, electric companies, gas companies
Quasi-government job. 60-120-150K per year. Full health and retirement.
– power plants (this is different from electricity delivery)
Quasi-government job. 60-120-150K
– forestry and mining
Government job
– waste management
Government and private. 50-80K per year. Full health and retirement for government. Just health for private.
– scrapping and refurbishing
Junk yard. Can make a lot of money with a junk yard. Must be entrepreneurial.
– elder care
$12/hour. No benefits.
– child care
$12/hour. No benefits.
– air BnB and landlording (i.e. private property management)
Forget about it. You will lose money.
– longshoremen
Great union job. $80-150K. Full health, benefit. Have to know somebody to get in this union.
– trucking (self driving systems are a relative bust, and in any case you need someone to navigate cities, load and unload, maintain the vehicle and protect the good from theft along the way)
Again, the absolute worst job in America, and about 1 million Americans do it. You work 11 hours per day, and must be ready to work 10 hours after you have signed off. Then you may be stuck in the middle of nowhere with no load for 1, 2, 3, 4 days, not earning a dime. No exercise. Lousy diet, just coffee, soft drinks, hot dogs and other crap. And, no, you don't see the country. Just see the same boring stretch of interstate over and over and over and over and over......Nasty, brutish and short.Replies: @DanHessinMD, @dfordoom
Most doctors do jobs that could quite easily be done by machines. Specialists will be OK but doctors in general practice could easily be replaced. What do they do? They do paperwork. Write prescriptions for minor ailments. Order tests to be done. Any real diagnosing of serious illnesses is done by specialists. It’s also a job that could easily be offshored.
In the future seeing a doctor will mean logging on to an automated software program, or talking to a doctor in India remotely.
A lot of routine legal work could also be automated or offshored. It will be the same as medicine – those at the top of the heap will still be OK but those doing the routine donkey work should not be surprised when they’re replaced.
Never a truer word spoken.
While they might have a utilitarian justification for their foundation, they also make it easier to funnel wealth from the χώρα and μεσόγεια to the ἄστυ .
They eventually always morph into a mechanism for politically-driven wealth concentration[1], with wealth again funnelled from demos to the polis (polis denotes the administrative centre of the city, and/or the political class: it’s not just the city as a whole, or city-dwellers as a class).
The larger the number of inhabitants a city has, the greater the bucket of money on offer for ticket-clippers of various types. The citizenry is a combination of feedstock and livestock.
[1] Wealth concentration that derives from private action is not a problem – it is a natural consequence of differences in talent, effort, and luck across individuals. Conversely, when it derives from the political means, wealth concentration is a deep problem. Most modern wealth concentration is not occurring naturally, and hasn’t been for a couple of centuries: it is a system of patronage.
- the building trades such a plumber, electrician, carpenter, HVAC, physical Internet and cable installation
- medical: doctors, nurses and technicians
- EMS
- teachers, given that schools will one day reopen
- police and security (many are actually making more than ever with record overtime)
- transport of goods for online retail
- warehouse operations for online retail
- auto mechanics
- machinery repair and maintenance of all types, from trucks to farm equipment to machines used in order fulfillment, manufacture and much more
- gardening and landscaping
- energy, such as oil production and refining
- food production (farming, meatpacking) where you can find such jobs
- road crews
- park service / rangers
- almost all government employment (nearly all of which requires US citizenship)
- real estate agents
- commercial property management
- work for utilities: water companies, electric companies, gas companies
- power plants (this is different from electricity delivery)
- forestry and mining
- waste management
- scrapping and refurbishing
- elder care
- child care
- air BnB and landlording (i.e. private property management)
- longshoremen
- trucking (self driving systems are a relative bust, and in any case you need someone to navigate cities, load and unload, maintain the vehicle and protect the good from theft along the way)
This list is just off the top of my head without consulting any sources. There are a lot of blue collar jobs here and it should also be noted that for most of these jobs there are manager and supervisor jobs that are white collar or college degree-appropriate.
I don't know how large a share of total jobs this is, but I purposefully off things like in-store retail, restaurants, hotels and airlines that are obviously in steep employment decline.
The economy will muddle on. There is a lot of ruin in a nation. Young people, and parents wondering what there will be anything for their kids to do should keep all these jobs in mind. All real, important essential work that is resistant to outsourcing.
Between jobs like this, frugal habits and faith to get you through emotional trials, any hard-working and reasonably intelligent person should be able to find their way to something like a middle class life.
A minority of smart and connected people will find ways to take advantage of all sorts of arbitrage opportunities and make a killing. But this post is not for those people. This post is for the common man (American flag buffets slowly in the background). God I love those people.
Audacious Epigone, I think this is worth a COTW or separate post, no?Replies: @Daniel H, @Excal, @Audacious Epigone
Some jobs can be outsourced.
For other jobs, such as the ones listed here, the workers can be imported.
The two methods are not really so different.
And most of them doing jobs that don't need to be done. The main reason for having servants is to demonstrate one's wealth. Having servants is a form of conspicuous consumption. Consoicuous, useless consumption. It's all about status. How can you be sure that people will know you're rich unless you have servants?Replies: @Dumbo
Yes, I should have written “wanted” and not “needed”.
In Brazil, even today, mostly in buildings associated with politics or government offices, but also in some very large corporations, they still have elevator operators, mostly young women, whose job is simply to sit in the elevator and press the button of the requested floor. It’s a perfectly useless job; they are there only to make politicians and big shots feel even more important (they shouldn’t even press a button by themselves – reminds me of Haredim Jews who can’t press elevator buttons during the Shabbat) and have someone to order about. Also I suppose it is an artificial creation of jobs by the government.
“Even if you have the means to credibly tell the collector to go pound sand because he’s not getting his money back, you don’t have the ability to generate the wealth to sustain the lifestyle you’ve grown accustomed to.”
Kudos for that sane statement.
The rich have been using excessive immigration to boost population growth massively higher, at the same time that they have been de-industrializing the nation and wasting capital on pointless overseas wars. More and more people, less and less domestic productive capacity, all being paid for with the balance of payments deficit.
“Conservatives” claim that the problem is printing too much money. Not really. If we were only printing too much money and had a lot of external debt, but had plenty of factories and farms relative to the population, a way could be found to survive a monetary crash. But if we don’t have enough production for our large and growing population, and external inputs are cut off, no amount of symbol-moving will fix that.
I feel like I’m on the deck of the Titanic. I know that I’m doomed, but for now the band is playing and the drinks are flowing. Right now the only rational thing to do is to enjoy the party while it lasts.
o/t
https://www.cleveland19.com/2020/08/18/goodyear-employees-say-new-zero-tolerance-policy-akron-hq-is-discriminatory/
That last paragraph really drives it home. So far it’s mostly been grunt work that’s been done remotely from Asia. When they go a grade or two up the chain, it will devastate the West.
I’m kind of coasting on years of personal relationships built up over dinners, drinks, golf, sporting events, etc. Someone starting out cold using video or telecons can only dream to be as effective and will miss all the backchannel comms that steer where things are really going.
One thing that’s made Zoomworld work is prior connections, as you point out. Once those social bonds fray we have a problem. How do you onboard a new employee (if we ever do that again) in this environment? Virtual Zoom team meeting isn’t going to do it.
If anyone knows of people on boarded,I’d love to hear how it was done.
Yes, I have wondered a lot about this. I was trained in person, and got to know everyone I work with that way. I don't have any friendships or close working relationship with anyone I didn't know in person first.
One thing that's made Zoomworld work is prior connections, as you point out. Once those social bonds fray we have a problem. How do you onboard a new employee (if we ever do that again) in this environment? Virtual Zoom team meeting isn't going to do it.
If anyone knows of people on boarded,I'd love to hear how it was done.Replies: @Dan
“One thing that’s made Zoomworld work is prior connections, as you point out. Once those social bonds fray we have a problem. How do you onboard a new employee (if we ever do that again) in this environment? Virtual Zoom team meeting isn’t going to do it.”
Yes, I have wondered a lot about this. I was trained in person, and got to know everyone I work with that way. I don’t have any friendships or close working relationship with anyone I didn’t know in person first.
Impunity
https://twitter.com/daveyalba/status/1296222748948287490
You don’t know the half of it. You weren’t declared surplus most of a decade ago.
Someone I knew years ago declared that management could be replaced by a trained dog. It would go from desk to desk and declare, “woof, woof.” The employee would say, “yes, I know but… ah, yeah that’s the solution” and the dog would move on.
It’s great having the perspective of a top-tenth (or top-hundredth or top-thousandeth) here. The vast middling is still going to get swallowed up, though.
Swallowed up? Nah, they are going to be crushed into humiliating serfdom. This whole COVID and BLM circus is the big test of how much humiliation and oppression they can get away with without inducing overwhelming rebellion from the armed majority, hoping they can continue to turn up the heat while they further lock us down.
- the building trades such a plumber, electrician, carpenter, HVAC, physical Internet and cable installation
- medical: doctors, nurses and technicians
- EMS
- teachers, given that schools will one day reopen
- police and security (many are actually making more than ever with record overtime)
- transport of goods for online retail
- warehouse operations for online retail
- auto mechanics
- machinery repair and maintenance of all types, from trucks to farm equipment to machines used in order fulfillment, manufacture and much more
- gardening and landscaping
- energy, such as oil production and refining
- food production (farming, meatpacking) where you can find such jobs
- road crews
- park service / rangers
- almost all government employment (nearly all of which requires US citizenship)
- real estate agents
- commercial property management
- work for utilities: water companies, electric companies, gas companies
- power plants (this is different from electricity delivery)
- forestry and mining
- waste management
- scrapping and refurbishing
- elder care
- child care
- air BnB and landlording (i.e. private property management)
- longshoremen
- trucking (self driving systems are a relative bust, and in any case you need someone to navigate cities, load and unload, maintain the vehicle and protect the good from theft along the way)
This list is just off the top of my head without consulting any sources. There are a lot of blue collar jobs here and it should also be noted that for most of these jobs there are manager and supervisor jobs that are white collar or college degree-appropriate.
I don't know how large a share of total jobs this is, but I purposefully off things like in-store retail, restaurants, hotels and airlines that are obviously in steep employment decline.
The economy will muddle on. There is a lot of ruin in a nation. Young people, and parents wondering what there will be anything for their kids to do should keep all these jobs in mind. All real, important essential work that is resistant to outsourcing.
Between jobs like this, frugal habits and faith to get you through emotional trials, any hard-working and reasonably intelligent person should be able to find their way to something like a middle class life.
A minority of smart and connected people will find ways to take advantage of all sorts of arbitrage opportunities and make a killing. But this post is not for those people. This post is for the common man (American flag buffets slowly in the background). God I love those people.
Audacious Epigone, I think this is worth a COTW or separate post, no?Replies: @Daniel H, @Excal, @Audacious Epigone
The drastic decline in purchasing power is going to have huge consequences on the American way of life. The end of cheap money will mean actual productive jobs like most of the ones you listed will fare much better than the outsourceable or BS administrative positions will, but everyone is going to take a big lifestyle haircut.
“Insourcing” was a term for a time but it’s not one I see or hear much anymore.