From a Civiqs tracking poll with an enormous total respondent pool (N = 393,130), president Trump’s net approval among non-Hispanic white registered voters by state:
|5) South Carolina||+40|
|7) West Virginia||+33|
|12) North Dakota||+29|
|15) South Dakota||+22|
|16) North Carolina||+18|
|31) New Mexico||-4|
|35) New York||-12|
|38) New Jersey||-16|
|43) New Hampshire||-27|
|47) Rhode Island||-31|
Texas and Georgia are going to be the first states in the country where whites vote heavily one way but end up being ruled by governors and represented by senators who come from the opposition to that voting, something that has never happened at the state level in the nation’s history so far as I’m aware.
Whites in New England and the West Coast vote Democrat. While there are intra-party tensions in those places, political divisions don’t map directly onto racial divisions like they do in the South. Gavin Newsome and Andrew Cuomo have something to lose if they stick it to whites in their states. In Stacey Abrams’ Georgia, that’s not the case. She isn’t coy about her electoral plans, either. She advocates for a new Democrat strategy that makes an end run around whites and appeals directly and without apology to people of color. That strategy is about to bear fruit. Non-whites in Georgia have been voting blue but getting red for decades. They can hardly be blamed for wanting to turn the tables to have statewide representation of their own for once.
If net white approval gave the state to Trump and negative net white approval gave it to Biden, Trump would comfortably win the Electoral College, though his margin would be smaller than it was in 2016:
Biden isn’t going to interact directly with Trump at all. Tactically, it’s all risk and no reward for the Biden campaign to do so. Corporate media will spin Biden’s strategic cowering as a statesmanlike demonstration of self-restraint in the face of a resurgent coronavirus. Expect them to talk about what a selfless sacrifice this is for Biden to make for the good of the country since he is a more accomplished and experienced debater than Trump, and so would beat the president in the debates if they were allowed to happen. They’re that shameless.