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Trump's Enthusiasm Advantage
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Though strict polling results foreshadow a Democrat presidential victory this year, one possible reason the betting markets see the race as a coin toss is that voters who approve of Trump are considerably more enthusiastic about voting than those who disapprove of him are. The following graph shows net enthusiasm by electoral category, calculated by taking “extremely/very enthusiastic (net)” and subtracting from it “not too/not at all enthusiastic (net)”:

The Russia Hoax was a dud. The impeachment sham is another dud. The Democrat nomination process has been soporific, with abysmal ratings for the last several debates after the nominating process got off to a reasonably strong start (15.3 million viewers for the first debate compared to 7.4 million for the most recent one). It’s little wonder the Democrat electorate is underwhelmed by what their party has offered them over the last three years.

Additionally, the Republican party is perceived as being considerably more united than the Democrat party is. The following graph shows perceived net party unity by partisan affiliation, calculated by taking the percentages who think each party is currently more united than normal and subtracting from that the percentages who think each party is currently less united than normal:

Even among Democrats, the perception is that the Democrats are modestly less united than the GOP (+9% net and +13% net, respectively). Independents perceive the Democrats as being significantly less united than the GOP (-22% to +16%) and Republicans see the Democrats in disarray while their own party is united (-46% to +41%).

With the DNC and its elite entourage setting their sights on Bernie Sanders and some of his more intense campaign supporters pledging to engage in civil unrest if he doesn’t get the nomination, discord in the Democrat party is likely to grow greater still in the coming months.

• Category: Culture/Society, Ideology • Tags: Election 2020, Politics, Polling 
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  1. As long as their top candidates keep talking about binary cabinets and DACA kids being more “american” than american kids . . .


    I am not concerned.

    • Replies: @MBlanc46
  2. I hope that Project Veritas follows up with those Bernie guys after he doesnt win and they don’t actually burn anything down, just to clown on them for being all talk. That would be way better content than the original videos.

  3. Nodwink says:

    James O’Keefe is a serial liar, you must be desperate to smear Bernie if that’s all you’ve got.

    Bernie has the grassroots support to take down Trump; the hard part will be getting past Biden, with the Dem establishment’s zombie army of suburban winemoms & “low info” Southern primary voters. As much as I want Bernie to win, I am also an accelerationist. Watching Gropey Joe lose to Trump would be hilarious, a win-win for me.

  4. @Nodwink

    I’ve had a soft spot for Sanders for years. That weakened when he buckled to Vox, BLM, Hillary Clinton, the DNC, etc in 2016.

    The one Trump rally I went to in 2016 was violently disrupted by people who without exception were (professed) Sanders supporters, though. I understand these undercover videos are anecdotal, but this is a real archetype, one that exists in substantial numbers among his grassroots campaigners.

  5. I ain’t voting again for Trump and all my enthusiasm is for destroying the Republican Party and destroying the Democrat Party and for destroying the two-party totalitarian system in the USA.

    Joe Biden will win the Democrat Party presidential nomination and millions of voters who didn’t support Biden will march over to the Green Party. Sanders can’t overcome Biden’s lock on the AUNT JEMIMA STRATEGY and the GREEDY WHITE GEEZER STRATEGY and that’s that.

    Trump has backstabbed and betrayed his voters on immigration and foreign policy and trade policy and censorship and free speech and other issues and millions of his former voters will join millions of other voters in the new political party called White Core America. These voters will be inspired by all the millions of voters who head for the Green Party and they will give their allegiance to a political party — White Core America — that will explicitly advance the interests of Whites as Whites.

    Hillary Clinton seems to be doing her best to advocate for the Green Party by bashing Bernie Sanders and Tulsi Gabbard and I think baby boomer globalizer Hillary Clinton is deliberately sabotaging Joe Biden by saying and doing things to make it easier for voters to screw out from underneath the Democrat Party ruling class and vote for and support the Green Party.

    My triple bank shot prediction is wild I know but when March 3 rolls around and Biden is the presumptive nominee you’ll see the Green Party surge in support and then White Core America will make its bold and brave move to advance the interest of Whites as Whites.

    Ralph Nader Tells Hillary Clinton To Go To Hell In His Own Way:

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  6. This data means nothing if the groups polled aren’t equal by age.

    If there were more young people (always less enthusiastic about voting) polled in the democrat pool, that could explain much of the difference. So whether you think that I’m just a myth, the riff, the lift, the gift, the if, the fifth, the shift, the spliff, that’s in control, to hold, to fold, to bold and make an ache and take and fake. Wooh! And I’m still too great. And as the author points out, Democrats don’t even have a candidate yet. Republicans already have an iconic one.

  7. @Charles Pewitt

    For all I care, Hillary and Ralph Nader can pull a Thelma & Louis in a 1965 Corvair. If the Grand Canyon is too far from Washington, FS, perhaps the New River Gorge would do.

    • Agree: Lot
  8. @Nodwink

    How’s James O’Keefe a serial liar? I didn’t even hear him say a word in those last couple of videos I watched on VDare. Each was nothing but one of those young Commies running his Commie mouth. It looks like these young Sanders staffers skipped the whole nice easygoing Socialism step.

    As Peak Stupidity explained in “Socialism – stuff you should have learned by Kindergarten”:

    Now, socialism is often thought of as just Communism-light, a friendly, nice, compassion version. No, no cultural revolutions planned, no mass graves (planned). it’s gonna be neighborly, dontcha know, like in the nice little towns in Vermont or Sweden (before the invasion). We’re gonna all discuss things, over lattes; we’re going to keep it calm and soothing, like National Public Radio, but sure, yeah, at some point we’ve gotta to redistribute some of your stuff. No, no, no, nothing like that, just some taxes that you pay … well, yeah you’ve gotta pay ‘em… sure…. the tax people are our people… very friendly… what do you mean, “what if I don’t?”… I mean sure, eventually they’ll call guys with guns… but we don’t expect that … we don’t even LIKE guns!.. Ewwww.

    • Replies: @Nodwink
  9. A123 says:

    And as the author points out, Democrats don’t even have a candidate yet. Republicans already have an iconic one.

    Right now every Dem is personally enthusiastic for their choice. When the DNC finally gets one candidate, enthusiasm will be lower among those that backed the losing side. Worse yet, the 2016 DNC nomination process was corrupt. If Sanders does not get the top slot, the Bernie Bros will feel shafted. At that point, negative consequences are inevitable.

    To grasp the enthusiasm gap, look at rallies:

    — MAGA is a positive message. Trump is overflowing even large venues.
    — The angry Dems project a negative image. Turnout is well below what Trump is generating.

    Look at this line attempting to get into a Trump rally.

    The fake impeachment over “Obstruction of Nothing” has unified the Republicans. Even those that do not like Trump realize they have to:

    Hang together — or be — Hung individually

    PEACE 😇

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @LoutishAngloQuebecker
  10. Arclight says:

    Glad to see this covered, as this is what will determine the election. The polls always have to be taken with a grain of salt because a) some portion of respondents will tell the questioner what they think they want to hear (ie that they aren’t voting for Trump) and b) just because you reached someone on their couch by phone doesn’t mean that person is going to bother to go to the polling station on election day.

    My suspicion is that if Trump wins again, it will because a lot of black voters stay home. I am skeptical that Trump will get more than than a point or two bump from his 2016 numbers from blacks, but I do think enough of them are content with their personal situation that they don’t feel motivated to go out and vote against him. I think the Dems feel the same way and the impeachment charade is an attempt to turn off white suburban women about Trump to offset black underperformance for the Dem nominee.

    • Replies: @MBlanc46
  11. “Additionally, the Republican party is perceived as being considerably more united than the Democrat party is. ”

    This is in part due to the Democratic field being the most diverse it ever had been. That was a mistake. There were too many identity candidates trying to share the identity vote. So I imagine once an identity candidate was clearly finished, many of that candidate’s supporters checked out of the race altogether, especially since the only real contenders remaining are really old white (one fake) people. A big portion of supporters for Komodo, The Lizard King, Butt Guy, Booker, Gabbard, Big Wang, the other old fake white lady, etc, supported them because of their identities, not their policies. All of their policies are pretty much the same anyway; a dozen copies of the same book with merely different covers. But identity politics are personal, and the emotional response is to not read the book if you can’t get the one with the cover you like.

    It is also reasonable to assume that the incumbent party always appears more unified at this point in the election process.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  12. Thomm says:

    It remains to be seen if the enthusiasm advantage can overpower the a) NeverTrump cuckservatives, and b) cuckservative proclivity to surrender to the left and then feel good about it.

  13. Trump voter enthusiasm is more than negated by Democrat vote rigging.

    has AE already forgotten that ‘somehow’ the Democrats won every single close election in 18? it must have been over 20 races where miraculously, more Democrat votes were discovered a week later that ‘surprisingly’ put the Democrat over the top. every single time. in state after state.

    that was a test run for full rigging in 20. what was the response from the Trump people? a spectacular epic fail. Trump will allow full vote rigging in 20. so forget the enthusiasm advantage. the guy is way too boomer to be fully effective.

    worse for Trump, Brad Parscale has no idea at all what he’s doing or what he’s talking about. he’s running Bob Dole’s campaign or something.

    it’s possible that after Trump gets clobbered in November, he’ll start his usual retarded twitter protest routine about the vote rigging being the reason he lost and that it’s “Not Fair!”

    the only interesting question then is whether Jack Dorsey will allow the Twitter mods to delete Trump’s account literally the day after the election, or will they wait until next January when he’s officially out of office. because, they’ll be deleting his account, that’s 100% for certain.

  14. Michael S says:

    Polls don’t favor Democrats anymore; that information is out of date. Even the New York Times is now publishing polls showing Trump edging out the Democrat front runners.

    The important thing is to look at polls with specific candidates, not “Trump vs. generic Democrat”. The one Democrat who actually does well against Trump (but still loses by a small margin) in polls is Buttigieg, and he has no chance of winning the nomination.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  15. MBlanc46 says:

    It doesn’t matter. The sides are already picked.

  16. MBlanc46 says:

    Every black revrum will be using tens of millions in donor-class dollars to hire buses to get their flocks to the polls. The vote-stealing apparatus will be cranked up to the max. The dead will be rising from their graves to pull the D lever. Turnout will not be a problem for the Dems.

  17. MBlanc46 says:
    @prime noticer

    Absolutely. They will leave no stone unturned in getting the vote out, but they won’t stop at that. There will be massive fraud.

    • Agree: Achmed E. Newman
  18. Jay Fink says:

    Trump in 2016 was the only time I had enthusiasm voting. It was refreshing to vote for someone I was excited about instead of the lesser of two evils. Unfortunately Trump has governed as a mainstream Republican instead of a populist/nationalist so I have lost my enthusiasm. I will probably still vote for him just because he upsets Democrats and establishment types so much. It would give me some joy to see them go nuts again and for them to fully realize all their anti-Trump hysteria didn’t work.

    I doubt the DNC would allow Bernie Sanders to be the nominee but if he was I might vote for him even if I disagree with him on just about everything. I want a shake up from the status quo. Trump didn’t give it to me . I am so hungry for sweeping changes that I would take a shake up in the opposite direction of what I believe in just to get it.

  19. Nodwink says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    OK OK, I admit it: Kyle Jurek should not be a staffer for Bernie Sanders. Kyle Jurek should be President.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  20. On the subject of the “betting markets”, it was once common knowledge that an honest bookie wouldn’t take bets on pro wrestling matches or political campaigns. Those were both generally recognized as sucker bets because the outcomes were predetermined.

    There ain’t a lot of common knowledge around these days.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  21. @Nodwink

    That’s the funniest thing I’ve read all day, but I’m only on the 3rd comment so that could change. You seem to labor under the delusion that votes are counted and the guy with the most votes wins. Turn off the TV before it’s too late.

  22. @Nodwink

    Accelerationsism… I get it.

  23. Roger says:
    @prime noticer

    Well, you may be right about all this, but we’ll have to wait and see. You should be careful, though, not to say that something about which you have no control (whether Dorsey deletes Trumps Twitter account) is 100% guaranteed. You might be proven wrong. In fact, if for some reason, Trump does manage to hold on to his Twitter account, then your assertion is completely invalid. Trump’s account MAY be shut down, but it is not 100% certain, unless you have absolute control over Jack Dorsey, which I am quite certain you don’t.

  24. A123 says:
    @prime noticer

    the only interesting question then is whether Jack Dorsey will allow the Twitter mods to delete Trump’s account literally the day after the election, or will they wait until next January when he’s officially out of office. because, they’ll be deleting his account, that’s 100% for certain.

    It’s a bit early to make predictions about January 2025 when Trump leaves office after his second term.

    The DNC can only rig the election to the extent they can get judicial backing. Given Trump’s success in getting judges appointed there is not a great deal of belief that Obama appointees will be effective in overthrowing the Constitution.

    ⏫ TRUMP 2020 ⏫

  25. @A123

    Also notice the relative mix of old and young. Romney and McCain were full of old people. Trump’s rallies have a good number of young folks, alongside the usual old folks. More of an inter-generational event, of Americans who want to keep their country.

    His rallies are more distinctly working and middle class, too.

    Still all white, though. I guess record black, Asian, and Hispanic unemployment isn’t drawing them to his rallies lol.

  26. @prime noticer

    The AGs in most of the states that matter are Ds, too. These are relevant points.

  27. @MikeatMikedotMike

    Right. The only thing I’m able to tease out a difference on is health care.

  28. @Michael S

    Buttigieg? He does terribly against Trump. Biden does the best, closely followed by Sanders. That’s really bad news for Warren and Buttigieg. The less known candidates should do better in hypothetical matchups, since their negatives are less known. Remember how much Kasich would’ve allegedly beat Hillary Clinton by? It was in the 10-12 point range. I didn’t buy it for a moment.

  29. @Twodees Partain

    I’m glad the 2016 version of me didn’t listen to you!

    That said, your general point is well taken.

  30. eah says:

    voters who approve of Trump are considerably more enthusiastic

    These people are known as Trumptards.

    Look at this line attempting to get into a Trump rally.

    I guess all those white people want to be among the lucky ones to hear Trump say “fake news”, or maybe “enemy of the people”, for the millionth time — or be told yet again about the “lowest black unemployment ever” — perhaps something about new washing machines? — are they longing to hear how Trump wants immigrants (nearly all non-white) to come in the “largest numbers ever”? — how Democrats are the real anti-Semites? — they’ll probably all go home happy if they can just hear him gloat one more time about the extra-judicial murder (at the behest of Jews) of a prominent foreign national.

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