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Trump Dumps the Sailer Strategy
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The following graph shows the change in Donald Trump’s advantage or disadvantage against his Democrat opponent by various demographics from 2016 to 2020. In 2016, Hillary Clinton had a one-point edge among those aged 45-64. In 2020, Trump has a one-point lead over Joe Biden among that age group. The change is thus represented in the graph as +2:

It should be noted these polls weren’t taken at the exact same point in the election cycle. YouGov switched to the current cross-tab format for its last round of polling in early November of 2016 but not before then. The 2020 poll employed here is from the beginning of October 2020, a month earlier in the cycle than the 2016 poll.

These results are striking. They show Trump improving by a net of 11 points among non-whites but declining by a net of 10 points among whites from 2016 to 2020. Because whites still comprise nearly three-quarters of the voting electorate, this is not a wash for the president. It represents an apparent decline in total support, albeit arrived at in exactly the opposite way the major media Narrative would have us believe. Trump is not doubling down on white men at the expense of everyone else. To the contrary, he’s making inroads with everyone else as he concedes support among white men.

The sex shift is probably at least partly attributable to his having run against Hillary last time and Biden this time.

But the racial dynamic isn’t as easily accounted for. I suspect there is a Boy-Who-Cried-Wolf aspect to this. In the lead up to 2016, people were screaming about how Trump was going to put black people in chains, deport brown people on cattle cars, and throw gays in concentration camps. When none of these things happened, hysteria gave way to something more like moderate disapproval or even begrudging respect.

As for conjecture on the white shift, some must be laid at the feet of the president. He promised a wall, a renaissance in American manufacturing, and an end to foreign wars–and all we got were these lousy tax cuts.

Another aspect, though, is one we’ve emphasized repeatedly here. The reason we keep bringing it up is because it’s a part of the story that has gone largely unremarked upon in coverage and analysis of the election, even among dissidents. That is just how much better a candidate Biden is than Clinton was.

In 2016, when it was one-v-one, Clinton beat Sanders 55%-45%. When it was one-v-one in 2020–after four years of the Vermont senator’s star rising–Biden beat Sanders 65%-35%. While Clinton had to claw and scrape to triumph over Sanders in the Democrat primaries, Biden blew him out of the water once the other boats had docked. And Biden managed to do so while still maintaining a greater appeal to independents than Clinton could manage.

Beyond the big question marks over how mail-in voting, Covid, and civil unrest will influence things, Trump’s one unambiguous improvement from 2016 is found among traditional Republicans. Many 2016 Never Trumpers have since climbed aboard the Trump train. The rock-ribbed conservatives who defended Ted Cruz’s shanking Trump at the Republican National Convention four years ago are now the president’s most ardent supporters. Are they enough to make up for the politically disaffected whites who took a chance on the outsider in 2016 but won’t be reupping this time around?

 
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  1. Anonymous[316] • Disclaimer says:

    From what I’ve seen, most Trumpers in 2016 are still Trumpers. His loss in white support is actually just continuing a decade long trend, of educated urban whites completely abandoning conservatism and the Republicans. The white managerial class is now firmly Democrat. Upper middle class white people are totally detached from reality and becoming more leftist and insane. perhaps as a survival strategy (so they think).

    My guess: the official national polls are nonsense. If Biden were really up by 16% nationally, he wouldn’t be campaigning in Nevada and Ohio. He would be in Texas, Montana, South Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri.

    Trump has NC, FL, AZ, OH, ME-2, and IA. He needs one rust belt – MI, MN, PA, or WI. I believe internal polling shows these states are a toss up. The election will be won in court. Can the Republicans prevent the mail-in voting dates from being extended? The Dems will not have enough time to manufacture ballots if they don’t, imo.

    Prepare for riots, lawsuits, and a long drawn-out process. RGB’s death is disastrous for the Dems – but as we’ve seen just because it’s an R judge doesn’t mean they will vote in R favour! The theme will be – rule in favour of Biden, or the riots will continue and destroy the country. Let’s pray.

  2. Anonymous[387] • Disclaimer says:

    Here is my prediction for November’s events.

    – Trump wins on election night. He pulls at least one rust belt state + NC, AZ, FL and declares victory.
    – The legality is disputed by the Dems – are they allowed to count ballots after election day? The legal wrangling begins.
    – Meanwhile, the antifa rioting starts in earnest. The USA is pummeled every night by antifa rioters, yes, even the suburbs. Violent clashes become the norm. The message is clear – judges support Dems or else we destroy the country.
    – In a final Washington F.U. to Donald Trump, Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh side with Breyer, Sotomayor and Kagan to ultimately hand over the presidency to Joe Biden.
    – The vote rigging extends to Senate races; Pelosi changes the 25th amendment rule and gets rid of Trump before January.
    – Left wing violence escalates, against Trump supporters and suburbanites. Trump and his family will either flee the country or be assassinated. Tucker Carlson, Ted Cruz, Ann Coulter, etc, will be assassinated by leftist mobs.
    – There is some organized violence by right wing militias; these are ultimately put down by the Natl Guard or other LEOs. Most Americans put their heads down and try to knuckle under and survive.

    —————————————————————————-

    I don’t know what comes in January. It’s safe to say there will be a complete globalist takeover of the United States of America. Their people are in the military, churches, businesses, bar associations, media, tech, etc.

    As the military globalist state gains more power, we may see things calm down. Leftist rioters will be liquidated by the new order, as will any right wing uprisings. 2A is gone, PR becomes a state, and an immigration wave so massive will come it will wipe out any last traces of heritage America.
    After this, the global elites will have carte blanche to carry out whatever whacky plans they have – likely sounding like its from Alex Jones’ conspiracies over the past 2 decades. Depopulation, bug sandwiches, who knows.

    Point is, it’s over. I wish I wasn’t blackpilled but this is the future. Total global tyranny, one world government. Trump is far too little, far too late. If it didn’t happen in 2020, it would happen in 2024 due to demographics. There was a chance to stop this with Buchanan in the 90s, but we lost. Go out and vote, the polls are fake, but white America will never be forgiven for sticking its finger at the globalists.

    Cherish your memories of the before times, because a new world order is coming in 2021.

  3. SIMP simp says:

    The populist vote was important in the Rust Belt swing states, getting more conservative votes in red states is about as smart as Hillary campaigning in New Orleans.

  4. LondonBob says:

    YouGov is garbage in, garbage out. Trump is still very popular with the white working class, despite Kushner’s best efforts.

  5. “In the lead up to 2016, people were screaming about how Trump was going to put black people in chains, deport brown people on cattle cars, and throw gays in concentration camps. When none of these things happened, hysteria gave way to something more like moderate disapproval or even begrudging respect.”

    This would lose him support amongst whites of the sort who take that Owen Benjamin joke seriously: “I used to like Hitler, but then I read that he didn’t do the holocaust.”

    But, yes, he gave GOP Inc. their tax cut without any serious strings and lost most of his leverage. And most of his hires were Never Trumpers.

    • Replies: @Ash Williams
  6. You can’t trust polls when you might be on the receiving end of violence for your answer.

    People will most likely not respond, or give the opposite answer out of spite (to give their enemies a false sense of security).

    Ask yourself: If you were a Trump supporter, and some rando called you asking who you were going to vote for, would you trust them to not take down your name and put you on a Glorious Antifascist Workers Revolution hit list?

    It’s going to be a historic blowout for Trump.

  7. @jimmyriddle

    This would lose him support amongst whites of the sort who take that Owen Benjamin joke seriously: “I used to like Hitler, but then I read that he didn’t do the holocaust.”

    So, 0.02% of the population. Who are going to stay home, or vote for him anyway.

    But, yes, he gave GOP Inc. their tax cut without any serious strings and lost most of his leverage. And most of his hires were Never Trumpers.

    Most? As for the rest, keep your friends close, and your enemies closer?

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  8. “That is just how much better a candidate Biden is than Clinton was.”

    This remains true. Frankly, the Biden of 1991, who let Clarence Thomas through to the Supreme Court, would be a better President than Trump for White Working Class folks. He at least understands their lives, while Trump and, especially, Jared, have NO understanding of what is important to them, having not had to worry about paying for food or rent at the same time.

    Of course, the Biden of 2020 is just a stalking horse for the candidate SO unpopular with voters she couldn’t even win her own state’s primary. The more you can get white men to focus on how unlikeable Harris is, the better Trump does.

    • Agree: L. Guapo
  9. A123 says:

    Trump never adopted the Sailer Strategy, so he cannot dump it. The 2016 myth about WN was a manufactured hit piece by the Fake Stream Media.

    The YouGov 2020 poll oversamples Biden voters (+8%) and, includes non-voters (also 8%). Thus, for a more accurate read on Likely Voters, add at least +10% to each column. Trump is up (or flat) in almost every category.

    As for conjecture on the white shift, some must be laid at the feet of the president. He promised a wall, a renaissance in American manufacturing, and an end to foreign wars

    Trump’s wall building has been blocked by the courts at every turn (1). This has cost the President some support from “Give Me Wall -or- Give Me Death.” single issue voters. His late delivery on H1B visa reform is also a problem among a different group of single issue voters.

    Trump ended Obama’s jobless recovery and blue/pink collar jobs were surging. This was benefiting every U.S. Citizen group until the shutdowns began. China negligently (or intentionally) inflicted WUHAN-19 on the world. Only #NeverTrump acolytes believe wacky conspiracy theories about other sources.

    Trump is the first President in modern history who refused to start a new war. White NeoCon ultra-hawks (Kristol, Bolton) have taken their followers to the DNC. Perhaps Trump’s commitment to peace is hurting him with Whites who believe in Manifest Destiny theology.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ninth-circuit-court-trump-cant-divert-military-funds-border-wall

  10. I’m seeing a lot of white faces at Trump rallies. A lot. So what if the wall hasn’t been completed. I think around 400 miles is done which is 400 more miles than any other candidate would have attempted. His “remain in Mexico” refugee policy is the bigger story, one that most people don’t even know about. Would any other President have done that?

    And is Biden really a stronger candidate? Bernie was easier to beat in 2020 than in 2016 — he was no longer a fresh-faced septuagenarian insurgent, he was an older, more tired cut-out of that guy. Also his base remembered well how he sold out for 30 pieces of silver in 2016 and endorsed the neocon witch. Biden is a very poor candidate, like Dukakis bad.

    • Agree: Manfred Arcane
    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
  11. These results are striking. They show Trump improving by a net of 11 points among non-whites but declining by a net of 10 points among whites from 2016 to 2020.

    Apparently, those that told us that Republicans could never win in a brown U.S. were wrong.

    This is an encouraging development—though not because it benefits Republicans. It is encouraging because it is necessary to the health of the Republic. Unfortunately, some U.S. whites will probably draw the wrong lesson from it, but the main thing is that Trump is demonstrating that alternatives to the Sailer Strategy exist.

    Personally, I wish that Republicans would follow the Sailer Strategy and the Trump Strategy simultaneously.

    • Replies: @Rosie
    , @Catdog
    , @Anonymous
  12. fnn says:

    People need to put pressure on their local GOP hacks who ordinarily care only about serving the economic interests of the business community:

  13. @Anonymous

    Other than that, how did you enjoy last night’s thrilling National Football League contest?

    • LOL: Truth
  14. Rosie says:
    @V. K. Ovelund

    This is an encouraging development.

    How so?

    • Replies: @V. K. Ovelund
  15. Catdog says:
    @V. K. Ovelund

    Uhhhh but he’s not winning and Browns still vote Dem by a huge majority.

    • Agree: V. K. Ovelund
  16. The sex shift is probably at least partly attributable to his having run against Hillary last time and Biden this time.

    I wonder if good data on this exists. On the one hand, in my own experience, women tend to dislike and distrust other women—as Bernie Sanders tried to explain during the 2016 Democratic primaries. On the other hand, as far as I can tell, Hillary Clinton lacks the sort of personality that typically sets other women’s teeth on edge. Contrast Kamala Harris, who as far as I can tell has that kind of personality.

    I have never much credited the tiresome media narrative that female candidates attracted female votes. I doubt that female candidates do as a rule. Indeed, I am inclined to suspect rather the opposite, especially when the office in question is that of the presidency. Undoubtedly, the issue is complex and I fail to understand some of the complexities.

    On the other hand, this data seems vaguely to contradict my sense of the matter, so what do I know?

    • Replies: @Wency
    , @dfordoom
  17. Catdog says:

    There is a very common kind of conservative Boomer (ie anyone over 30) who cannot feel actualized unless they know a token black person who agrees with them. Contrary to the narrative of white supremecist domininance, a clean-cut black man who’s anywhere right of John McCain can walk into a white evangelical church and will quickly become the most popular person there. I’ve seen it.

    These boomers are truly perplexed when the media accuses them of racism- they go on missions trips to the 3rd world, donate and volunteer at homeless shelters, and feel a warm glow inside when white families leave the pews so that brown families move in. Many of them adopt non-white children. They talk about how they’re proud of whatever token non-white ancestry they think they have. They are smugly satisfied when their children date or marry non-whites. I am not exaggerating or trying to be black-pill. I have met MANY of these people. I can think of at least 5 or 6 people I personally know for each of the behaviors I’ve mentioned. Again, these are otherwise super-conservative white evangelicals.

    This is not the same impulse that drives leftist whites, who are merely status seeking or else trying to fit in. Conservative boomers actually have a spiritual need for non-whites validation.

    With this in mind, the Sailer Strategy is “damned if you do, damned if you don’t”. Direct appeals to non-whites will not attract enough of them to win the election. Direct appeals to whites may actually reduce white turnout, even among the most conservative whites.

    • Replies: @Talha
    , @L. Guapo
    , @Lace
  18. Dr. Doom says:

    Biden is using the Sailer Strategy. His black votes beat Bernie.

    The D-party is the black party now. Look at Harris as VP.

    Trump doesn’t have to use it, Biden already is married to it.

    Biden is counting all the minority votes before they get tallied.

    I have to wonder how many will show for this clown.

    He just held a rally that nobody showed up for.

    Biden may be the least popular favorite in political history.

    Never Trump and voting against Trump voters aren’t really excited by Slow Joe Biden.

  19. @Rosie

    This is an encouraging development.

    How so?

    I am glad that you have asked. I distrust the national political dynamic that otherwise seems to be taking shape: Republicans as the white party; Democrats as the antiwhite party. For one thing, the typical Republican officeholder would rather put his own eyes out than advance white interests, despite relying on white voters to supply 90 percent of his votes at election time. Many Democrats obviously hate whites but their party, as a party, is more transactional: the Democratic Party might cynically do something for whites if its leaders thought that it would benefit the party to do that.

    I never wanted tens of millions of brown people to settle in the United States, the land of my fathers; but I also understand that those people live here now, have put down roots to a nontrivial depth, and mostly are not leaving. For my children’s sake, I shall need to get along with those people, which means that I want to see those people in both of our national political parties. For what is the alternative? Us versus them, forever?

    No thanks. Fred Reed colorfully overstates the case, but he and Ron Unz are basically right about this.

    I don’t believe in pursuing the irrational, barbaric black vote, but I can count. If I won’t pursue the black vote, and if the white vote is inexorably declining as a share of the total, then the brown vote must be the target. The way the Democrats combine mestizos, blacks and homosexuals within the same party is absurd. I want Republicans to wrest the mestizo vote from the Democrats. That will force Democrats to compete for the white vote.

    That is how I tend to see it, at any rate. If you’ve another view, I would be glad to hear of it.

  20. Lowe says:
    @Anonymous

    Dude, that is not going to happen. If Donald Trump has a clear victory then Biden will concede, and vice versa. If there is no clear victory it will be resolved in under a week in the courts.

    The situation you paint implicitly assumes that elites are fine blowing themselves up. They are not fine with that.

    What you described would land a major, lasting blow to the prestige and safety of gov’t officials and US elites generally. I know the Left seems crazy, but people have a way of getting sane when their property, position, and lives are put on the line.

    • Replies: @Catdog
  21. @V. K. Ovelund

    There is so much obtuse media disinformation that it becomes nearly impossible to use ordinary words to express ordinary thoughts. I wrote:

    I want Republicans to wrest the mestizo vote from the Democrats.

    The media has since the 1990s been propagandizing that U.S. mestizos wanted immigration and official/commercial Spanish. However, to those of us that would tune out media blather and pay attention to the actual behavior of living, breathing U.S. mestizos, it has since the 1990s grown clearer and clearer that—at least in some ways—U.S. mestizos dislike immigration and official/commercial Spanish more than anyone else.

    Didn’t anyone notice in 2015 that actual Mexicans never seemed very offended by the so-called Mexican Rapist speech?

    The media would like us to see “U.S. Hispanic” (a largely fake category in my opinion) as a sociopolitical analogue to “U.S. black.” But it isn’t.

    For some reason, too few non-Hispanic whites in the U.S. grasp that many or most U.S. mestizos see themselves as white. Whether U.S. mestizos actually are white in a U.S. context can be debated—but, really, why debate it? If U.S. mestizos are willing to let Republicans identify them as ordinary whites and court their vote on this basis, then can Republicans not just accept the happy state of affairs?

  22. Rosie says:
    @V. K. Ovelund

    That is how I tend to see it, at any rate. If you’ve another view, I would be glad to hear of it.

    Yes, White people should put themselves first for a change. You put non-Whites first, to wit:

    but I also understand that those people live here now, have put down roots to a nontrivial depth

    Why do White people have to forfeit our future for someone else’s “roots”? I have never gotten a sensible answer to this question.

    • Replies: @V. K. Ovelund
  23. @Rosie

    Why do White people have to forfeit our future for someone else’s “roots”? I have never gotten a sensible answer to this question

    I have no sensible answer. Sorry.

    If you can show me a plausible future in which those people leave the United States more or less amicably, without mass bloodshed, I’ll probably promote it.

    • Replies: @Rosie
    , @Mr. Rational
  24. Rosie says:
    @V. K. Ovelund

    If you can show me a plausible future in which those people leave the United States more or less amicably, without mass bloodshed, I’ll probably promote it.

    Indians have reservations. Given that there is no lack of space, why not Whites? The answer is clear. The elites are terrified of Whites and want us destroyed.

    • Replies: @TG
  25. Anonymous[721] • Disclaimer says:
    @LondonBob

    Are you a White working class American, LondonBob? If not, don’t pipe up. You can see Trump shift from dog whistling White working class Americans to outright hostility the moment his warmongering against Syria was rejected. His campaign and administration never had any other goals with regard to White Americans but trying to dupe them back into the PNAC orbit with a paper thin veneer of fake nationalism. The jig-nat is up.

    • Troll: LondonBob
  26. Anonymous[721] • Disclaimer says:
    @V. K. Ovelund

    It’s only encouraging if you think the Republican platform has a shred of value. It doesn’t. Securing israel-first free trade with a plurality of Hindustanis and Mexicans who enjoy affirmative action privilege over White Americans is a hellish future. Says a whole lot about you that you’re jazzed about it. Another shill exposed.

  27. A123 says:

    Trump Leads in Florida

    President Donald Trump is leading former Vice President Joe Biden in Florida, according to a poll conducted this week by InsiderAdvantage. Pollster Matt Towery Sr. said the data shows Trump leading Biden by three points among likely voters in the Sunshine State; however, a significant number of those polled remain undecided at 10%.

    — 46% –Donald Trump
    — 43% — Joe Biden
    —  1% — Jo Jorgenson
    — 10% — Undecided/No Opinion

    “Once again, based on poor data and or weighting, many of the polls we are seeing simply are not picking up the actual level of support for President Trump,” said Towery, founder of InsiderAdvantage. “What stands out in this poll is that Trump is actually picking up 12% of the African American vote in the Sunshine State.”

    https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-35-exclusive-insideradvantage-poll-gives-trump-3-point-edge-over-biden-in-florida

    PEACE 😇

    • Thanks: Manfred Arcane
  28. Arclight says:

    My own personal bubble is such that all my friends/family who voted Clinton in 2016 are voting Biden, and those that voted Trump in 2016 are doing so again, with a few reluctant 2016 Trump voters having more conviction about it this time around. However, I live in a state that whose outcome really isn’t in doubt, so that probably influences the likelihood of some people changing their minds.

    Maybe I am drinking the Kool-Aid the media is ladling out, but it looks to me like Trump is facing enough attrition in his support from 2016 that he’s going to fall short of winning key battlegrounds by about the same margin he won them last time around. Based on conversations with friends or family in two midwestern battleground states, they are unanimous that they think Biden will win their states this time around. My spouse and various others are insistent that the silent majority is bigger than we think and will bail him out, but I just don’t see/feel it. That said, I was convinced Clinton was going to win in 2016 and hit the liquor store immediately after voting.

    • Replies: @Wency
  29. TG says:
    @Rosie

    I don’t think that the elites are terrified of “whites” per se, it’s just that they want to play divide and conquer: let the proles fight for crumbs while the billionaires get the whole loaf. Whites, who still quaintly identify with the nation as a whole, are being attacked simply because they identify with the nation as a whole. I mean, when one witnesses blacks actively demanding that more third-world refugees be imported to replace black workers, blacks are no obstacle to ‘globalism.’ Black workers should make common cause with white workers on many issues, but they won’t. Most recent third-world refugees (‘hispanics’, ‘asians’) are focused on their own ethnic and family groups, they have no touchy-feely illusions and are just going to get as much as they can for themselves and their clans.

    Nationalism may sometimes be taken to an extreme: even as there can be criminal families, though I’d not argue that families are bad. But nationalism is the one thing that can cause people to identify with and care about more than their own tribal families and ethnic groups, but with the nation as a whole. NOT globalism: if someone says that they care about everyone equally, what they are really saying is that they don’t care about you. So nationalism is an obstacle to the strip-mining of countries by a corrupt oligarchy, and American whites just have the bad luck to be the main obstacle here.

    • Replies: @Rosie
  30. Rosie says:
    @TG

    So nationalism is an obstacle to the strip-mining of countries by a corrupt oligarchy, and American whites just have the bad luck to be the main obstacle here.

    I think what you’re failing to appreciate is that the elites know that, objectively, what they have done and continue to do has been very bad for Whites. They fear reprisal. You don’t bring economic and demographic ruin down on a people and then leave holdouts to take revenge. This is the logic of genocide.

  31. Catdog says:
    @Lowe

    Dude, that is not going to happen. If Donald Trump has a clear victory then Biden will concede, and vice versa. If there is no clear victory it will be resolved in under a week in the courts.

    The situation you paint implicitly assumes that elites are fine blowing themselves up. They are not fine with that.

    What you described would land a major, lasting blow to the prestige and safety of gov’t officials and US elites generally. I know the Left seems crazy, but people have a way of getting sane when their property, position, and lives are put on the line.

    A couple days ago I asked the smartest man I know if he sees a civil war coming after the election. He used the same logic as you: the stock market is up and rates of return are extremely low, so obviously the very wealthy don’t see any problems on the horizon and therefore nothing will be allowed to happen.

    That’s a convincing argument, if you believe that everything is Fake and Gay, Nothing Ever Happens and They Won’t Let Us.

  32. Talha says:

    One thing the Orange One has to do is get a handle on the optics of his supporters:

    That dude on the right is sporting the symbol of the Thelemites – a movement founded by Alister Crowley.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Realist
  33. “Trump Dumps the Sailer Strategy”

    he mostly has.

    in response, i need to up my estimate for the size of his Electoral College loss. previously for 2 years here i had Trump losing by about 100 EC votes – a solid win for the Democrat but not a blowout.

    now i’m gonna have to increase that to 150 votes. could be more, depending on how badly Trump does in the last month here. things are moving in the direction of a Democrat sweep. under neutral, objective observations using historical standards, i don’t think we’re looking at a “Mandate” for the Democrats after the election. although they will take it that way with a narrow win of the Senate.

    conditions for a Democrat takeover, and the beginning of one party, Democrat monopoly rule over America, are in place.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  34. anon[372] • Disclaimer says:

    These results are striking. They show Trump improving by a net of 11 points among non-whites but declining by a net of 10 points among whites from 2016 to 2020. Because whites still comprise nearly three-quarters of the voting electorate, this is not a wash for the president.

    It represents an apparent decline in total support, albeit arrived at in exactly the opposite way the major media Narrative would have us believe. Trump is not doubling down on white men at the expense of everyone else. To the contrary, he’s making inroads with everyone else as he concedes support among white men.

    100% accurate. I know, because I am one of them.

    First to the oversampling argument of one comment. You have to over-sample Democrats because they are a larger party with a significantly larger voter base than the Repubs. Holding this up as a red-herring is nonsense, unless its very far askew from the state norm.

    Secondly, the Republican party is divided between Boomer retirees / High income-assets voters, the former of whom are net consumers of Govt largess at this point,

    and working class people who are largely white and have recently watched as they were volunteered as donor servants to any other racial or ethnic group that the Repubs wanted to assimilate.
    Near omni-present, shameless, overtly ethnic / racial appeals were constantly advertised at every other group, while the only mention allowed of white americans were distasteful allusions to potential racists or ‘supremacy’.

    The surprise is not that Trump bled the white working class who went through a pandemic disaster totally capitulated by Trump/Kushner, and spent down all their assets to survive, but that Boomer retirees who never saw a missed check also turned away in significant numbers.

    Trump is really doubling-down on alienating even that Boomer sector of support by celebrating the Post-Covid victory parade, in which a wise person would not want to draw attention to the fact that almost anyone can survive this virus if you are swept into a govt chopper and given special treatments that exist only for the elite, but have been held back from almost everyone else who fell ill with the infection.

    Slap people in the face brazenly, and they tend to respond in kind. Almost everyone at this point, what ever their ideology, seems to forget that Trump began office by promising Amnesty to all ‘Dreamers’, after promising his voters the opposite during the election. This was studiously ignored at the time by basically everyone except Malkin and Coulter, who were among the few notables to stand their ground. His appointments have been a nightmare to his voter base- warmongers and corporate republicans many of whom vigorously opposed his election.

    Trumps path to victory led through re-assigning Jared and Ivanka as non-policy, UNICEF Goodwill Ambassadors who were told YOU WILL do this for me after I set Jared up with a Security Clearance he could not qualify for, and jeopardized my office while his Billion $ debts seem to have ‘magically’ cleared.

    The path forward is NOT through the Republican guest-worker party. I am advocating an ‘America Reformed’ Party that would go beyond simply another 3rd party launch. The party first and foremost builds in a Term Limits agreement for its candidates that ensures the reps serve the constituent instead of the office becoming the property of the elected official. This is a measure that the duopoly cannot match, because their business model rely on entrenchment of their office holders.

  35. Wency says:
    @Arclight

    I too am seeing a lot of attrition.

    I don’t know a single Hillary voter who has warmed up even slightly to Trump. Others might know these people, but it just feels like it must be a very small group. Because a huge part of the problem was always his personality, and his personality is more of a liability now than 4 years ago. Back then people thought he might learn to act Presidential, and it was easier to look past when it was still a novelty. But after 4 years of zero improvement, it just gets old, week after week.

    I really see this hurting him among educated middle-class evangelicals. Trump has done a lot to try to hold onto the evangelical vote, but the truth is that if he would just act like a civilized person, it would count for more than 9 Scalias. But instead, my wife’s extended family (conservative evangelicals in a critical swing state) looks like it’s going to vote write-in or third-party this time around after giving Trump a shot in 2016, and it sounds like this is a common sentiment in their circles.

    I also know multiple Trump 2016 voters who are now dead. Meanwhile young people who will be voting for the first time seem to mostly hate Trump. And I know a couple of third-party 2016 voters who couldn’t stand Hillary or Trump but think Biden is tolerable enough to get their vote in 2016.

    So I really struggle to see how he might have a chance. The sometimes unpredictable nature of turnout, and problems with mail-in voting, are the only things that could save him.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @Arclight
  36. Dr. Doom says:

    White people are beginning to learn to take their own side.

    The freaks of antifa notwithstanding.

    Trump has momentum. He has loyalists.

    Biden does not seem to excite his base much.

    The Anti-Trump groups are voting against Trump.

    I do not believe anyone is actually voting FOR Biden.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
    , @Anonymous
  37. @Ash Williams

    Most?

    Yeah, and how many times has he had to KEEP replacing one guy with the next to get a guy who supports him (his freakin’ boss!)

    As for the rest, keep your friends close, and your enemies closer?

    Yeah, but as your employees, hired to get an important job done?

    I’ll vote for the guy, but this President Trump is like an HR Department on dope.

    • Agree: Ash Williams
  38. Talha says:
    @Catdog

    I can think of at least 5 or 6 people I personally know for each of the behaviors I’ve mentioned. Again, these are otherwise super-conservative white evangelicals.

    The Orange One’s candidate for the open Supreme Court seat probably fits neatly into a few (if not most) of your categories.

    Peace.

    • Agree: dfordoom
    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Anonymous
  39. @Ash Williams

    It’s going to be a historic blowout for Trump.

    Even a senile Joe Biden can win New England (except maybe New Hampshire), the DC Beltway states, California, and Illinois, so a “historic blowout” is not possible.

    That said, I believe Trump will have a draw in the popular vote and add a few electoral votes to 2016.

    Then the rioters will riot in the usual Democratic strongholds where they know they can get away with it.

    If they try it in areas with Republican mayors the rioters will get beaten to a pulp.

    And–that will be that.

  40. I have been overhearing just now my wife’s phone with Trump’s voice speaking loudly at a rally. He’s an inspiring dude, but man, I keep hearing “Puerto Rico” and “the Latino police association”, etc. I’m just sick of all of that. Maybe it’ll get him a few more votes from these groups, but white people who may have more to do than I will on that particular Tuesday are not going to be so motivated, in my opinion.

    You are right that he is not down with the Sailer Strategy if he ever has been. That is, consciously, I mean. I realize that it was the working and middle-class whites that got him important votes in important States in the Rust Belt. I don’t know how much he thinks about it. He sounds like he just likes to please everyone with his talk at the rallies. Does Trump realize that he kinda pisses people off by giving away 1/2 a Trillion dollars of people’s children’s money, with interest, to wasteful black causes?

    Is he listening to Javanka again regarding his campaign? Do they even want to win, or do they really work for someone else?

    • Replies: @Realist
  41. @Anonymous

    I’m nowhere near as black-pilled as that, #387. However, there’s not much of that stuff that I couldn’t see happening. As the replier to your replier Lowe (Catdog) wrote (or I think that’s what he meant), people think nothing really bad will ever really happen. You can’t be forever blessed, sang Paul Simon, 45 years ago (just a bit early):

  42. No dyed-in-the-wool uncucked white man supports Donald Trump or the Republicans anymore.

    The only people supporting Trump now (besides Russian and Chinese state-financed trolls) are fat Jewish/nonwhite cucks and female small business owners; i.e. the average Unz commentator.

    Every white guy I know is voting for Biden. They all told me Trump was only a protest vote against Hillary and the “truly disastrous” effect a white woman in power would bring. Nobody ever actually supported Donald Trump and his retarded plans.

    Since Covid already put all the women and minorities out of work and shut the border down anyway; it’s clear who the intelligent white men are voting for: Kamala Harris.

    Anyone predicting a Trump victory on election night is shamelessly smoking PCP. He will be slaughtered in the polls. You’re assuming the worst in humanity if you actually believe that the people who exist outside of the prison that ia your mind are willing to vote for this fucking retard.

    • LOL: usNthem
    • Replies: @John Johnson
  43. A123 says:
    @Wency

    I have yet to see any Trump attrition. He has a clear enthusiasm advantage.

    Just the opposite, there has been a huge drop in support for the Blue ticket. Biden is obviously damaged. Harris is a huge negative. DNC turnout is going to fall off the edge of a cliff.

    Weeks of capitulation to rioters. Oppressive restrictions on the peaceful. Biden’s hypocrisy is actively motivating Swing Voters to turn out for Trump.

    PEACE 😇

  44. L. Guapo says:

    He tried to thread the needle, and it might work. Blacks like his “big man” persona and see him as a player ala Slick Willie. I can’t explain the apparent decline in white support.

    • Replies: @Truth
  45. Arclight says:
    @Wency

    Same things I see/hear. My friends in WI say that they know GOPers that are just exhausted by Trump’s behavior and are done with him.

    I understand perfectly well that he is who he is, but to be honest even I thought he might mature just a bit…but no, while he can be effective on the attack he is also too easy to bait. In my view, if he was just a slightly more likeable or gracious person, he’d be crushing Biden right now.

    • Agree: V. K. Ovelund
    • Replies: @Talha
  46. @LondonBob

    Thanks for the video LondonBob, the parts I watched were pretty interesting and I was pleasantly surprised (as a Pennsylvanian) by how my intuition on the issues lined up their results. I think right-leaning pollsters are really useful, regardless of whether they’re more or less accurate than leftists ones, because they allow for some genuine self reflection in a group which is very dismissive of mainstream polls.

    My main takeaways:

    1) The GOP has a big advantage when it comes to the Supreme Court. Judicial restraint is very popular, ACB personally is quite popular, and above all, court packing is hugely unpopular. “Biden refuses to renounce court rigging” should be the blaring headline of every Republican billboard and advertisement.

    2) Conversely, Dems have a big advantage in healthcare. The Conservative, Inc./Libertarian wing of the GOP has totally buried their heads in the sand by refusing to acknowledge how fantastically popular Obamacare is. Almost certainly the most popular policy decision of the 21st century. In fact, I would even venture to say that the core of Obamacare has net positive support among Republicans. The states suing to get it dismantled are making one of the most boneheaded legal actions ever, almost political suicide.

    3) The other significant Dem advantage is Coronavirus. This is where the right-leaning pollsters’ results are especially useful imo, as they put a serious dent in the conservative delusions of a “silent majority ready to rise up against unjustified restrictions.” Nope, most swing voters support them. The good news is that this issue gets less and less attention as time goes on, so Republicans should just let it die. Political attacks over “lockdowns” are basically Democrat ads paid for by the GOP.

    4) Besides the Supreme Court, immigration and policing are solid issues for Trump. And trade is REALLY solid. Biden’s support for the TPP is a disastrous position and the general lack of GOP attacks over it is a serious missed opportunity, though it’s not too late. I think some specific, targeted ads about factories that moved overseas during the Obama years could be brutally effective, and combine pathos with real policy choices.

    • Replies: @dfordoom
  47. L. Guapo says:
    @Catdog

    “anyone over 30” is not a boomer you cunt.

    • LOL: Truth, Lace
    • Replies: @dfordoom
    , @Catdog
  48. Talha says:
    @Arclight

    Game changer…

    Peace.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
  49. @Dr. Doom

    I have yet to see any Trump attrition. He has a clear enthusiasm advantage.

    No one really likes Biden but I’m still concerned he will win.

    • Replies: @usNthem
  50. nebulafox says:

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/why-some-early-maga-adopters-went-against-trumps-virus-doctrine

    Yes, yes, Vanity Fair. But they got it right.

    “But the simplest answer may be that Trump, if he was ever Trumpist to begin with, became something else once he came to Washington. It was Trump’s late adopters who came to prevail in most of the power struggles in the White House. Cutting taxes, worrying about Iran more than China, easing up on the border hawkishness, and siding more with business than workers—these are some of the preferences of the later adopters. By contrast the early Trump adopters are mostly on the outside today. Whether you think that’s a good or bad thing overall will depend on your ideology—whether you find the outlook of the early supporters or the late supporters easier to take. What’s clear is that on the issue of this pandemic, though, we’d all have been better off if Trump had listened to the former.”

    I personally think ascribing any sort of coherent ideology to Trump at all is pointless: the one consistent position he’s had since the 1980s is Hamiltonian views on trade, which he’s accordingly gone to stronger lengths to implement in office. Everything else, he’s doing on the spur of the moment, and that means he’ll inevitably default to the people around him.

    That’s not to say Trump didn’t share in some of the common-sense “WTF” moments that many Americans all over the political spectrum were having in 2016-particularly on foreign policy, the area where the divergence between the political class and everybody else is most obvious-but the man’s pretty stochastic: it was back to word salad the next day rather than pressing that. Biden’s just not as disagreeable or “epitome of everything wrong” as Clinton was, and that’s his downfall. It speaks volumes of how much of a turn-off institutionalized woke capital is that he has a chance at all.

    • Agree: Lace
    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
  51. @anon

    almost anyone can survive this virus if you are swept into a govt chopper and given special treatments that exist only for the elite, but have been held back from almost everyone else who fell ill with the infection

    Only the bold bits of that excerpt are necessary.

    The chopper and the woo-woo ‘treatments’ were a massive strategic fuckup by Trump, and completely fucked my forecast of how good a positive test plus complete recovery would be for Trump.

    It may well be that he was ‘advised’ (i.e., snookered) into the trip to Walter Reed, by people whose actual objective was precisely to enable a narrative like “Trump only got better because of preferential treatment… just like a typical rich kid“.

    What Trump ought to have done is nail his colours to the mast, and let everyone else run to Nursie – like that fat prick Christie.

    He could have said “I’m going to have a section of the White House cordoned off to protect my staff, but I will remain at my post and continue to do my job until I recover – and I am confident I will recover. I’ll keep you updated.

    Instead, CNN got to paint Trump’s trip to Walter Reed as a “Saigon Embassy, 1975” moment.

    As I’ve said before, I don’t really give a shit which career-opportunist gets to be King of the US as it circles the drain: the person on the Throne contributes little of any consequence, and largely does the bidding of people who are notionally his underlings.

    (If RBG had stayed alive, I would have preferred a (D) win just to prevent Opus Dei from getting to dictate US jurisprudence for the next 40 years – but she didn’t, so it’s moot.)

    Still, it’s moderately annoying to see Cheeto Jesus either make, or be tricked into, such an obvious fuckup. He handed the field to CNN by running to Nursie like a scared little bitch.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
    , @A123
    , @anon
  52. @anon

    The party first and foremost builds in a Term Limits agreement for its candidates that ensures the reps serve the constituent instead of the office becoming the property of the elected official. This is a measure that the duopoly cannot match, because their business model rely on entrenchment of their office holders.

    This may actually have the opposite of the effect you intend. There’s good evidence that term limits increase the power of lobbyists and special interest groups because they accrue institutional power that would otherwise go to veteran politicians. It’s pretty obvious that new, inexperienced representatives still trying to “figure things out” would be more easily influenced by their knowledgeable tempters than old stalwarts.

    Another concern: term limits would create an over-sized (2 year) “lame duck” period for all representatives at the end of their term, during which there is zero accountability to their constituents. To me it sounds like the perfect time to pass juicy but unpopular laws (read: “immigration reform”) with zero repercussions.

    • Replies: @anon
  53. nebulafox says:
    @Kratoklastes

    >As I’ve said before, I don’t really give a shit which career-opportunist gets to be King of the US as it circles the drain: the person on the Throne contributes little of any consequence, and largely does the bidding of people who are notionally his underlings.

    Regardless of who wins, we are going to have a corrupt, mentally fading septuagenerian, neither of whom were Original Ideas guys even in their younger days. I do not think Trump vs. Biden itself changes much, one way or another. and as always, the media has a vested interest in making people think the world is going to end if X happens.

    The real potential impact of this election is whether the Democrats can succeed in getting a Harris Presidency down the line, and entrench full-on SV-style micromangerial petty totalitarianism. Harris is not unintelligent, but nowhere near as bright as she thinks she is (same for everybody in DC-the place attracts narcissists like schoolyards attract pedophiles), and isn’t likeable, so it is possible she’ll over-reach and court backlash, but I’d rather not find out. It’s funny because Pence is way too religious and connected with the GOPe for my tastes in just about any other situation, but he doesn’t visibly hate my guts, like Harris does…

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
  54. Talha says:
    @John Johnson

    I guess his defense these days would be; “What?! What’s that you say? I don’t remember anything? Now – as I was saying about my hairy legs…”

    Peace.

  55. @JohnPlywood

    Every white guy I know is voting for Biden. They all told me Trump was only a protest vote against Hillary and the “truly disastrous” effect a white woman in power would bring. Nobody ever actually supported Donald Trump and his retarded plans.\

    Where are you located? I’m in rural America and Trump signs are everywhere.

    Electing Biden most likely means president Harris in 4 years at the most and that would be worse than Hillary. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if Biden quits in 3 years so he can be the guy that made a woman president.

    I would be fine with Trump losing if the opposition wasn’t a Manchurian candidate that reads teleprompts like Ron Burgundy.

  56. A123 says:
    @Kratoklastes

    It may well be that he was ‘advised’ (i.e., snookered) into the trip to Walter Reed, by people whose actual objective was precisely to enable a narrative like “Trump only got better because of preferential treatment… just like a typical rich kid“.

    Voluntary medical treatment is common and accepted. Woody Harrelson even ran an “Oxygen Bar” for 100% healthy people… Errrr… Assuming that I can say 100% healthy for anyone in Hollywood.

    There was negligible impact for Trump walking to Marine One under his own power. Having beaten WUHAN-19, it is a clear win for the U.S. over Chinese aggression.

    PEACE 😇

  57. usNthem says:
    @John Johnson

    The Biden vote is being driven by Trump hatred as much as anything else. We’ve had several enthusiastic rallies in our blue city. There is no excitement for the Biden ticket. His supporters would vote for anyone or anything as long as it isn’t Trump, period. Trump comes across as a rough character because he’s not a f****** professional politician. Anyone who holds that against him, when he’s had the entirety of the swamp and media complex continuously arrayed against him isn’t being serious. How can one pull the lever for a 3/4 sentient (at best) fool is beyond me. Trump probably isn’t going to save the republic – too late for that now – but he may be the only chance for some or many of the treasonous resistance bastards & b****** to be held to account.

  58. Trump Dumps the Sailer Strategy

    Which is good, because the Sailer strategy does not work. I wrote about this over a year ago and then again nine months ago.

    It really does get tiresome being consistently right about everything all the time while simultaneously being ridiculed and called every name under the sun by people who persist in idiotic errors for which they never repent. But I was right about Covid-19, and Sailer was wrong. I am right about HBD, and Sailer is wrong. Now I have completely demolished his single claim to political acumen, the so-called Sailer Strategy.

    So I am predicting, right here and right here and right now, that Trump is going to win on election night, that Joe Biden will concede, and that there will be minimal riots or other public disturbances. If I am right about this, it just cements a long track record of me being right while Sailer is wrong. If I am right about this, I am putting Ron Unz and everyone else here on notice that they must give credit where credit is due.

    When Donald Trump is reelected to the presidency on November 3rd, I demand a contributor’s spot on this website.

    I demand to replace Steve Sailer.

    • LOL: iffen
    • Replies: @Twinkie
  59. Something is clearly wrong with the polls. The recent Rassmussen poll that showed the President down by 12 points nationally also had him only getting 76% of Republicans, which is laughable. He got 88% in 2016 and has done nothing but shore up his Republican support since then.

    I smell a rat.

  60. anon[717] • Disclaimer says:
    @Elmer's Washable School Glue

    ‘First and foremost’ being the operative element..

    i am under no illusion that allowing reps to take payoffs would be corrected by term limits alone, which is why this is the central feature, but only A feature.

    I have been speaking with a guy who owns an event center locally, and like me is pretty conservative and a former Trump supporter. We both broke from Trump finally over the same issue –

    The Bush style speculator bailout that got approved with no debate and full consensus of both corrupt parties, and with Trumps giddy agreement. Open ended trillions to scammers and gamblers to allow the claim that the ”market was roaring back” when it was rigged even before the bailout, and completely SOCIALIZED after the bailout. At that point, I said that this makes the Bone Saw Alliance look mild comparatively, and could no longer go along with this anymore.

    We were talking about a local summit to discuss the party platform once the Repubs buy the farm, and he is offering free use of the very large premises, as well as access to some advertising, and basic supplies.

    The containment elements of the platform would consist of voluntary restrictions on ‘donations’, limits on even meeting donors from outside of your district, total abolition of 3rd party lobbyists, and refusal of pensions which instead would be rolled into the party as budget / initial funding.
    Candidates sign a resignation letter that would be forwarded if they violated the terms of their office. The summit is to get ideas from others, in the form of a modern convention.

    Anyone who previously earned a living from/through politics would be the only individuals excluded from party membership, providing that all others agree to the anti-corruption terms, since the entire goal is to remove the business element from the system which has now completely betrayed us.

    If we can get multiple summits going, and wisely construct a enforceable corruption-containment system, it would take advantage of a rare opportunity which is the collapse of one of the corrupt parties that is now unpopular with both the left and the right.

    The party is by admission, so it sidesteps court rulings / citizens united corruption inducements. You can voluntarily join and abide by the rules, or choose not to join.

    I dont control this because I do not possess the events center or assets to pull it off, so I am simply offering a option that I have discussed to others – sitting around waiting for those who already sold you out to change is a waste, as is voting in the Dems, so I would borrow the phrase –

    What have you got to lose?

  61. anon[110] • Disclaimer says:
    @Kratoklastes

    What Trump ought to have done is nail his colours to the mast, and let everyone else run to Nursie – like that fat prick Christie.

    He could have said “I’m going to have a section of the White House cordoned off to protect my staff, but I will remain at my post and continue to do my job until I recover – and I am confident I will recover. I’ll keep you updated.”

    I had Covid, and I can tell you that given how poorly he looked, he would still be in bed today, coughing constantly until his ribs ached, and unable to speak for more than a sentence without breaking out in another cough session.

    He still sounds fairly poorly to my ear, but I do agree with you that if you wanted to brag later, pull a Melania, stay at home in bed and tough it out. Then if 5 days later you can hit the campaign trail you really have something to brag about.

    In my case I could not even get a simple Covid test because the requirements were to already have symptoms, and once I had symptoms I still had no insurance which even the local Health Dept wanted before they would perform a test, which warned that its not free in the paperwork.

    Trump tool elite treatment while avg americans could not even get a basic test, let alone special drugs or steroids or private medical suites. Most severe cases got a ventilator which made money for the hospital and blew out their alviolar sacs.

    As I’ve said before, I don’t really give a shit which career-opportunist gets to be King of the US as it circles the drain: the person on the Throne contributes little of any consequence, and largely does the bidding of people who are notionally his underlings.

    I have no concern for the two parties, I dont want to waste the opportunity to bring about a useful alternative, which cannot happen while the Repubs still rule. The alignment of celestial bodies is a one time opportunity.

  62. Twinkie says:
    @Anonymous

    – Trump wins on election night. He pulls at least one rust belt state + NC, AZ, FL and declares victory.
    – The legality is disputed by the Dems – are they allowed to count ballots after election day? The legal wrangling begins.
    – Meanwhile, the antifa rioting starts in earnest. The USA is pummeled every night by antifa rioters, yes, even the suburbs. Violent clashes become the norm. The message is clear – judges support Dems or else we destroy the country.
    – In a final Washington F.U. to Donald Trump, Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh side with Breyer, Sotomayor and Kagan to ultimately hand over the presidency to Joe Biden.
    – The vote rigging extends to Senate races; Pelosi changes the 25th amendment rule and gets rid of Trump before January.
    – Left wing violence escalates, against Trump supporters and suburbanites. Trump and his family will either flee the country or be assassinated. Tucker Carlson, Ted Cruz, Ann Coulter, etc, will be assassinated by leftist mobs.
    – There is some organized violence by right wing militias; these are ultimately put down by the Natl Guard or other LEOs. Most Americans put their heads down and try to knuckle under and survive.

    You forgot this.

    -Aliens invade the Earth and we all die.

    • LOL: Johann Ricke
  63. Twinkie says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    But I was right about Covid-19

    Totally!

    Why did you stop posting those graphs of comparing Covid-19 deaths to flu deaths? At first it was “It’s just a bad flu season!” Then it was, “It’s only like a really bad flu season contracted in one month!” Then it was “It’s only a a couple of bad flu seasons in one month.”

    Then you just stopped. Why, man?

    You remind me of that other guy on Unz who kept writing that Covid-19 only affected Asians. Then it was only Asians and Persians. Then Asians and Persians and Italians (but only because the Chinese living there, even though those areas suffered far less than the really stricken areas). Then just nothing.

    being ridiculed and called every name under the sun by people

    Here is a clue. People who claim that they are ALWAYS right are either ridiculously arrogant or suffering very badly from Dunning-Kruger (or both).

    If I am right about this, it just cements a long track record of me being right while Sailer is wrong.

    Oh, lordee. If you were even moderately intelligent, you’d realize that EVEN IF you were right about ONE prediction, it doesn’t prove that you would be right about every prediction. Even if you were right about one topic, it doesn’t mean that you would be about other topics.

    called every name under the sun by people who persist in idiotic errors for which they never repent.

    Question: have you ever “repented” anything you’ve written here? Or have you always been right in a God-like, omniscient fashion?

    You strike me as an autodidact in a low intellect environment who have read some books on your own, but have not been challenged intellectually (in person) or known anyone smarter. That’s usually a recipe for a neglected genius fantasy.

    • Agree: Johann Ricke
  64. Anonymous[409] • Disclaimer says:
    @Ash Williams

    “The polls are all lies” is a tempting and pleasant thing to believe, sure.

    But wheres the evidence? I predict the election results will match the polls reasonably closely.

    • Replies: @Ash Williams
  65. Twinkie says:
    @Anonymous

    From what I’ve seen, most Trumpers in 2016 are still Trumpers. His loss in white support is actually just continuing a decade long trend, of educated urban whites completely abandoning conservatism and the Republicans. The white managerial class is now firmly Democrat.

    I don’t know about the rest of your predictions, but this analysis is spot on. There has been a complete collapse in support for Trump among suburban, college-educated voters. These were traditionally very center-right, Republican voters, but they are now overwhelmingly for the Democrats. Meanwhile, rural and blue-collar whites whose support in the past were split have become very Trumpist.

    As for Trump’s moderately increasing support among non-whites, this too is nothing surprising. He garnered slightly more non-white vote in the last election than the previous Republican candidate (Romney) did in the presidential contest prior.

  66. Lace says:
    @Catdog

    Your comment seemed worth something, except that you don’t even know what a boomer is–you blew it.

  67. Truth says:
    @L. Guapo

    I can’t explain the apparent decline in white support.

    Well, let me take a shot…

    He’s a complete prick at every opportunity.

    He’s broke, and is reputation as a businessman is fraudulent.

    He can’t go 3 days without making a fool of himself.

    And he payed less taxes than you.

    • Agree: V. K. Ovelund
    • LOL: Talha
    • Replies: @Talha
  68. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Elmer's Washable School Glue

    This is where the right-leaning pollsters’ results are especially useful imo, as they put a serious dent in the conservative delusions of a “silent majority ready to rise up against unjustified restrictions.” Nope, most swing voters support them.

    It seems that the coronavirus restrictions and lockdowns really are hugely popular. Not just in the United States, but they’re hugely popular throughout the Anglosphere.

    The silent majority got Nixon and Reagan elected, but that silent majority is now dead.

  69. dfordoom says: • Website
    @L. Guapo

    “anyone over 30” is not a boomer you cunt.

    Boomer is now just another all-purpose word for “people I don’t like.” Or, more accurately, it’s an all-purpose word for “people who disagree with me.”

    • Replies: @Lace
  70. Lace says:
    @dfordoom

    You mean for you personally? Because you have not singlehandedly changed people’s understanding of ‘boomer’. Or did you even know that. Talk to your navel about it.

  71. @Anonymous

    Point is, it’s over. I wish I wasn’t blackpilled but this is the future. Total global tyranny, one world government.

    Amen brother.

    Obviously we are going to see mandatory vaccines for travel and corporate employment.

    What do you think the goal of the vaccine will be?

    1) Tracking nanites
    2) Sterilization
    3) DNA mutation
    4) Terminal cancer 1-3 years after vaccine administration
    5) Other?

    • Replies: @Anonymous
  72. Talha says:
    @Truth

    I heard Orange Camacho wanted to tear open his shirt and reveal a Superman suit underneath at his I-beat-Covid press conference, but someone convinced him otherwise.

    It’s pretty sad that, even taking everything you said into account, he still maybe a better option than the other side.

    What a complete mess.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Truth
  73. @V. K. Ovelund

    For what is the alternative? Us versus them, forever?

    Yup.

  74. @nebulafox

    (same for everybody in DC-the place attracts narcissists like schoolyards attract pedophiles)

    By now, it should be obvious DC attracts plenty of the latter type as well.

  75. Talha says:
    @Talha

    Speaking of…yaaaassss queen…

  76. It’s more like he’s taking the SS for granted. He figures the white working class is with him, so he has to expand out to others.

  77. LondonBob says:
    @V. K. Ovelund

    Trump is doing a lot better with Cubans and Venezualans in Florida than in 2016, I think Latins are the people moving.

    • Agree: V. K. Ovelund
  78. @V. K. Ovelund

    For what is the alternative? Us versus them, forever?

    Works for me.

    • Replies: @V. K. Ovelund
  79. iffen says:
    @V. K. Ovelund

    Us versus them, forever?

    Us has problems choosing up sides, them doesn’t, which is why they are winning.

    • Replies: @V. K. Ovelund
  80. @Bill Jones

    For what is the alternative? Us versus them, forever

    Works for me.

    Well, come to think of it, you may have a point.

    Still, I do not trust the Hispanic-as-an-enemy stance. I cannot credit it. Jews are the enemy. Blacks are disorderly, irrational, violent and generally useless. Mexican-Americans are as a rule industrious and assimilable, are moderate in their demands, and anyway behave like neither blacks nor Jews.

    Which would you rather have? Say, a million Chinese or a million Mexicans? Neither, right? Meanwhile, both have their positive points. Mexicans are less arrogant. The Chinese aren’t leaving, either.

    No one has yet shown me why we can’t just live with the Mexicans. It’s not perfect. In theory, I liked it better when the Mexicans lived in Mexico, but I liked it better when the Italians lived in Italy and the Irish in Ireland, too. I liked it better when I was 21 years old and my back wasn’t sore. I liked a lot of things better; but meanwhile, it seems to me that Mexicans are generally all right.

    Cubans and Venezuelans are all right, too. A few other Hispanics are not, but since “Hispanic” (as earlier observed) is probably a fake category, anyway, I have no further conclusions to draw from that vein.

    Jews and blacks are the problems. Everything else is a distraction.

    • Replies: @Bill
  81. iffen says:

    They show Trump improving by a net of 11 points among non-whites but declining by a net of 10 points among whites from 2016 to 2020.

    Just when some non-whites begin to reject what they are told to think by the Borg, more whites fall in line.

  82. Bill says:
    @V. K. Ovelund

    The Chinese aren’t leaving, either.

    They kind of are, though. They don’t reproduce, and when they do, it’s frequently with whites. As long as they stop coming pretty soon, they will just disappear over a few generations.

    • Thanks: V. K. Ovelund
  83. Anonymous[721] • Disclaimer says:
    @Dr. Doom

    White people are beginning to learn to take their own side.

    If that were true, they wouldn’t be backing Trump. You can’t be pro-White and pro-israel. You can’t be pro-White and pro-America in the postwar order, either. You can’t be pro-White and pro-capitalism.

  84. Realist says:
    @Talha

    One thing the Orange One has to do is get a handle on the optics of his supporters:

    What the hell does that mean?

    • Replies: @Talha
  85. Wency says:
    @V. K. Ovelund

    I think a big part is generational. Millennial/Zoomer women see every day that they’re doing better than their same-age male peers and don’t feel the pressure to vote for a woman. If they buy into “privilege” language, they see white women as a privileged group and don’t feel it’s especially virtuous to back a fellow white woman just because she’s a woman.

    • Thanks: V. K. Ovelund
  86. Realist says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Do they even want to win, or do they really work for someone else?

    They work for the Deep State…as I have been saying for years.

  87. Talha says:
    @Realist

    It means maybe talk to some guys so that they aren’t taking photo-ops with guys wearing occult emblems.

    Peace.

    • Replies: @Realist
  88. Talha says:
    @Talha

    I-beat-Covid press conference

    Speaking about commitment to the Orange One, I don’t think anyone beats this guy.

    He gave his life so that his god could live…
    “Bussa Krishna, a farmer who called President Trump his god, stopped eating after Mr. Trump became infected with the coronavirus, his family said. He died on Sunday….When Mr. Trump announced he had tested positive for the coronavirus, it devastated Mr. Krishna. The farmer posted a tearful video on Facebook, in which he said: ‘I feel very sad that my god, Trump, has contracted the coronavirus. I ask everyone to pray for his speedy recovery.’

    He stopped eating to show solidarity with his idol’s suffering from Covid-19, his family said. He fell into a deep depression. On Sunday, he died of cardiac arrest.”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/world/asia/india-trump-fan-dies.html

    Why wouldn’t Trump want to import millions of guys from India who literally worship him?!

    Taking stock…he is now; 1) very orange, 2) has literal worshipers that will die for him…the next step is to merge with sand trout…

  89. Trump stabbed his White Core American voter base in the back and the White Core American voters will refuse to vote for Trump or any other Republican Party politician whore.

    Trump has refused to deport the upwards of 30 million illegal alien invaders in the USA and Trump has called for the USA to be flooded with mass legal immigration “in the largest numbers ever” and Trump has not called for a complete and total immigration moratorium.

    Trump is electoral toast on November 3 and the rest of the rancid and putrid politician whores in the rotten Republican Party will be going down with Trump in a fiery electoral Hindenburg conflagration.

    WHITE CORE AMERICA RISING!

  90. • Agree: Talha
    • Replies: @Manfred Arcane
  91. @V. K. Ovelund

    many or most U.S. mestizos see themselves as white.

    I guess that’s why they tote Mexican flags and La Raza banners to all their protest marches, eh?

    I live in 91405, which last I looked was 78% Hispanic and is probably higher than that now. Mexicans tolerate us like one tolerates a dog entering your yard, but there’s no question this is now their neighborhood, not mine. I’m a guest, which is why I’m permanently moving to AZ on election day. I don’t belong here. I know it, and they know it. Oh, and Sacramento knows it.

    Just 5 minutes ago I had to get another worker on the line to help me translate for one of our workers who speaks no English. None, after at least a decade in America.

    If you think Hispanics are integrating, I can only assume you’re typing from Idaho or N. Dakota.

    • Thanks: V. K. Ovelund
    • Replies: @V. K. Ovelund
  92. Truth says:
    @Talha

    Talha, it’s astonishing that we’ve come to this point. You have two presidential candidates, one strongly appears to be in the early stages of senility, and more than half the country, at this point, prefers that he be president.

    • Agree: Talha
    • Replies: @Talha
  93. Realist says:
    @Talha

    It means maybe talk to some guys so that they aren’t taking photo-ops with guys wearing occult emblems.

    You want Trump to talk to these guys???

    • Replies: @Talha
  94. Talha says:
    @Realist

    Well, I guess you have a good point there – can’t argue with that.

    Peace.

  95. Talha says:
    @Truth

    When I look at Biden, I think of the lines from Don Henley’s song:

    They’re beating plowshares into swords
    For this tired old man that we elected king

    Peace.

  96. @Anonymous

    Just curious. You seem to have the perspective of an American, but yet you spelled it “favour.” Twice, militating in favor (favour?) of the presumption that it was not a typo. Are you an American? If not, why your interest in our political contretemps?

    It is my hope that this inquiry does not constitute a violation of the new warning concerning personal identifying information. I seek none beyond the detail sought by question posed. Like I said, I’m just curious.

    My comments typically spend twelve hours or more in moderation. Now that it’s a schoolmarm at the gate instead of “Steve at whim,” I wonder if my wait time will change one way of the other.

  97. Anonymous[153] • Disclaimer says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    A fellow blackpiller

    Blackpill = reality I’m afraid.

    I’ve wondered the same myself. I would put sterilization as a front runner, the elites have been heavily pushing anti-natalism for years and it has ramped up lately. Most young women don’t want kids these days.

    Death in 3 years seems too drastic. People would figure it out quickly and probably just trash the place.

    But “oops, turns out you’re sterile now. Totally sorry about that, but you still get to enjoy this super rad childfree lifestyle we were promoting before anyways” might go down easier with millenials (who are terrified of death).

    Of course, nobody really knows at this point. Things will be VERY different by 2022.

    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
  98. Anonymous[153] • Disclaimer says:
    @Talha

    Liberal states with legal abortion have seen plummeting black birth rates in the past decade. Meanwhile, Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia are getting blacker than ever.

    I’m convinced that white people have some defective gene that is being exposed and taken advantage of by the left.

    Her family represents the ideal Civ-Nat future. A whole lot of blacks and retarded children who couldn’t be aborted.

    • Replies: @Truth
    , @dfordoom
  99. Anonymous[153] • Disclaimer says:
    @dfordoom

    Ironically, the silent majority is now the loud minority… think of how much noise the hard-right makes online… and all the people going out to Trump rallies and Muh 2A etc.

    These people are now a small minority and are getting smaller each year.

  100. @Charles Pewitt

    Fitzpatrick is either an idiot or a liar with a demoralization agenda; he’s been falsely burying Trump since the 2016 Wisconsin primary, so I suspect the latter. He fails to mention the success of the Remain in Mexico policy, the improved Public Charge rule, the progress on the wall, the refusal to start any new wars, the draw-down of troops and de-escalation of existing wars, the scrapping of NAFTA, the tariffs and push to bring back manufacturing, and any number of other Trump follow-through on his campaign agenda. He also ignores unfortunate political reality; Trump can’t kick the Republicans to the curb the way Fitzpatrick and the rest of the Vdare bunch fantasise about, or he’d have been out of office long ago. Trump does the best he can within a hopelessly corrupt and broken system, and for that should be supported, not armchair-quarterbacked by journalists and ranting shitposters.

  101. @Ash Williams

    All bold predictions should be bookmarked. The correct ones will be highlighted in November. The incorrect ones, other than the blog’s own, won’t be unless the respective authors request it.

    • Agree: Ash Williams
  102. @Anonymous

    I’ve wondered the same myself. I would put sterilization as a front runner, the elites have been heavily pushing anti-natalism for years and it has ramped up lately. Most young women don’t want kids these days.

    That’s the irony. Why go to all this trouble for sterilization when we already know-

    On the social front, the elites have programmed young women in many countries to avoid a life path that leads to children, thus lowering TFR.

    Also on the social front, lockdowns have killed off many gyms, bars, restaurants, churches, concerts, festivals, cafes, and other events and activities that were normal, healthy venues for young people to meet and strike up relationships potentially leading to marriage and child-bearing, ultimately lowering TFR.

    On the environmental front, the air, food, and water are rife with all manner of chemicals that are destroying male testosterone levels and sperm counts, factors that will clearly drive TFR down.

    All of these, and more factors, were already leading to a crash in birth rates. Why bother with all this new mess? Are the elites just that impatient?

  103. @dfordoom

    It seems that the coronavirus restrictions and lockdowns really are hugely popular. Not just in the United States, but they’re hugely popular throughout the Anglosphere.

    From where I’m sitting the cucks and Karens appear to have won handily.

    • Replies: @dfordoom
  104. @iffen

    Us has problems choosing up sides, them doesn’t, which is why they are winning.

    Too true. Unfortunately, our side’s leaders are reluctant to promote our interests. This is why I too have problems choosing up sides.

    • Replies: @iffen
  105. Truth says:
    @Anonymous

    Abortion is legal in every state, dumbo.

  106. dfordoom says: • Website
    @V. K. Ovelund

    in my own experience, women tend to dislike and distrust other women

    An extraordinary number of women felt a really visceral hatred towards Hillary Clinton. Not really surprising. Women know how women like Hillary operate.

  107. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Anonymous

    I’m convinced that white people have some defective gene that is being exposed and taken advantage of by the left.

    It’s a basic defect in modernity. You take capitalism and combine it with democracy, urbanisation, consumerism, mass media saturation and social media and the result is a death sentence for any society. It has nothing to do with race. East Asian societies are heading for self-destruction even faster than white societies because they’ve been infected with the worst features of modernity.

    • Agree: Talha
    • Disagree: iffen
    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Audacious Epigone
  108. dfordoom says: • Website
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    From where I’m sitting the cucks and Karens appear to have won handily.

    Don’t underestimate the immense effect that Karens have had in driving coronavirus hysteria. It was a God-given opportunity for them to do what they like doing – telling other people what to do.

  109. Talha says:
    @dfordoom

    Anybody who drinks the koolaid will end up the same. No one is immune. The genetic explanation leaves much to be desired, two or three generations ago whites were quite racist and pretty violent towards others – so much so that they even ethnically cleansed each other on their own continent. A tectonic shift within such a short time has few coherent biological explanations.

    Peace.

    • Disagree: iffen
    • Replies: @Yahya K.
    , @dfordoom
  110. @Nancy Pelosi's Latina Maid

    I live in 91405, which last I looked was 78% Hispanic and is probably higher than that now. Mexicans tolerate us like one tolerates a dog entering your yard, but there’s no question this is now their neighborhood, not mine. I’m a guest, which is why I’m permanently moving to AZ on election day. I don’t belong here. I know it, and they know it. Oh, and Sacramento knows it.

    I have been thinking overnight about your tale. If 91405 has long been your neighborhood then the change is regrettable. I wish that the change had not ocurred. Besides being unpleasant and alienating, the change is unfair to you and yours.

    What can fellow citizens like me do to help?

    Meanwhile, for my information, since you live there and I do not, how hostile/unassimilable is 91405 compared, say, to a typical 78% black neighborhood?

    I assume that the Hispanics of 91405 are mostly Mexican. Is this correct?

    Any further remarks you chose to add would be read with interest.

  111. iffen says:
    @V. K. Ovelund

    our side’s leaders are reluctant to promote our interests.

    Understanding this is a necessary first step.

  112. Yahya K. says:
    @Talha

    The genetic explanation leaves much to be desired, two or three generations ago whites were quite racist and pretty violent towards others – so much so that they even ethnically cleansed each other on their own continent. A tectonic shift within such a short time has few coherent biological explanations.

    Which is why it’s important not to overemphasize HBD when it comes to explaining human systems. It’s a useful model to have, indispensable even, but the people who bring it up all the time are like the man with a hammer who to him everything looks like a nail. Not a good way to think.

    Regarding materialism, I think the Golden Mean principle applies here. Too little material wealth isn’t a good thing. Its easy to go all hipster and bash on “muh materialism” and idealize the noble savage and such, but when push comes to shove, all of us would rather be rich than poor. Who here would reject a million dollars if it was offered to them with no strings attached?

    But on the other end, if your sole focus in life is on the material, your life will be empty and devoid of meaning, and on a broader societal level alienation will result. Some combination of spiritual and material wealth is needed.

    • Disagree: iffen
    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Talha
    , @dfordoom
  113. @V. K. Ovelund

    If you can show me a plausible future in which those people leave the United States more or less amicably, without mass bloodshed, I’ll probably promote it.

    It’s going to come to blood anyway.  The left won’t allow anything else.

    • Thanks: V. K. Ovelund
  114. Talha says:
    @Yahya K.

    but the people who bring it up all the time are like the man with a hammer who to him everything looks like a nail. Not a good way to think.

    That’s how I see it. There is a feedback loop with culture and genetics; for instance, I cited (a while back) how the Church was instrumental in breaking down the tribes and clans of Europe by instituting laws interdicting cousin marriage. That leads people down a certain genetic path, but that was also a change in culture instituted from the ruling class (like monarchs that wanted to collaborate with the Church in tempering rival power structures to their rule). Neither always invoking HBD nor always ignoring HBD seems to give a coherent picture.

    More below…

    Wa salaam.

    [MORE]

    I mean, let’s look at the UAE, for example; their TFR has plummeted and is below many European countries. Now, sure, they have a ton of immigrants, but many of those people are also various Muslims from different parts of the Muslim world (which, in their home countries are still having families and kids). Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar…all going down a similar path, but UAE is the trail blazer. This kind of stuff is showing up:

    Too little material wealth isn’t a good thing.

    Bingo! The issue is that, with modernity, human beings have been thrust into a completely different world that is so vastly incongruent with how we have lived as a species for thousands of years. I may have said this before, but do yourself a favor and get this book (or audiobook):

    It is a must read. It is imperative that the Muslim world do its best to not cross the line between turning from a “tool using” culture into a technocracy and remain straddling that brink without crossing over as much as possible. As Postman points out, once a society becomes a technocracy, it is impossible to avoid becoming a technopoly in time.

    But on the other end, if your sole focus in life is on the material, your life will be empty and devoid of meaning, and on a broader societal level alienation will result. Some combination of spiritual and material wealth is needed.

    If we are fortunate, we may have fail-safes built within the religion that prevent us from doing so – like 5 daily prayers that break apart your day and fasting for a month out of the year and such. A general positive regard for asceticism or zuhud is also built into the religion. Asceticism is not poverty, it is a willful abstention from acquiring or consuming material in spite of one’s capability in order to not be distracted from one’s purpose.

    We are fortunate to have a religion that provides man with a path to live a dignified, distinct and noble existence despite his paucity of material possessions:

    We still have our hidden awliyah.

    • Replies: @Yahya K.
  115. Yahya K. says:
    @Talha

    The issue is that, with modernity, human beings have been thrust into a completely different world that is so vastly incongruent with how we have lived as a species for thousands of years.

    Yes. E.O Wilson summed it up nicely: “The real problem of humanity is the following: We have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions and godlike technology.”

    It is imperative that the Muslim world do its best to not cross the line between turning from a “tool using” culture into a technocracy and remain straddling that brink without crossing over as much as possible.

    I agree. I think Malaysia provides a good model for us to emulate. If you take Malays as a group, I think they could very well be the happiest people on Earth, on average. A good part of that is because they have combined spiritual and material wealth in the manner we talked about above. Their GDP per capita ($30,000) is right around midway between the First World and the Third (i.e they are in the golden mean zone). And they’ve maintained the family structures and religiosity of the Third World.

    But of course some of that economic prosperity is due to the hard work and industry of the ethnic Chinese minority. The Malays don’t really need to do much work themselves. They also had the good fortune to be ruled by the British for some time in their history, which left them with admirable Anglo governance structures (which I think other Muslim countries should try to adopt as much as possible as well).* But overall I think Malaysia should be the country we strive to become more like, not the Gulf or some western country.

    *Side note: my childhood education took place in a British institution, a vestige of the colonial era, so I have a high opinion of British culture in general. Opinions may differ though.

    [MORE]

    I cited (a while back) how the Church was instrumental in breaking down the tribes and clans of Europe by instituting laws interdicting cousin marriage.

    Yeah. Part of the reason why Europe developed trusting, democratic societies was because of their outbreeding marriage patterns. And part of the reason why the Muslim world is still tribal is because of the opposite. I personally think we would benefit from reducing the prevalence of consanguineous marriage in the Islamic world. Thankfully, it’s already happening to a certain extent in places like Egypt:

    Asceticism is not poverty, it is a willful abstention from acquiring or consuming material in spite of one’s capability in order to not be distracted from one’s purpose.

    We are fortunate to have a religion that provides man with a path to live a dignified, distinct and noble existence despite his paucity of material possessions

    Alhamdullilah.

    I recently began studying Imam Ghazali (ra) and came across this relevant passage:

    There are two states of poverty: one is covetousness and the other is contentment—and the latter is praiseworthy. There are two states for the covetous: one is greed with respect to people and the other is to earn with one’s own hand—and the latter is praiseworthy. There are two states for the wealthy: one is miserliness and retention, the other is giving and generosity. There are two states for the giver: one is extravagance and the other is economy. Of these two states, one is censured and the other mixed. Learning all of these is important.

    In summary, wealth is not devoid of benefits, nor of detriments. It is a religious obligation to know both in order to guard against the detriments (of wealth) and (yet) to pursue a sufficient amount of it.

    Salam.

    • Replies: @Talha
  116. Talha says:
    @Yahya K.

    E.O Wilson summed it up nicely

    Very nice! Though one could argue whether our institutions are still medieval.

    Wa salaam.

    [MORE]

    Malaysia is a good example. Turkey is a another relatively good one. Iran wouldn’t be doing to bad if not for political and financial isolation. Though I don’t mind where Morocco is or Indonesia or some others. Political stability and transparency in things like justice and markets is more important than being materially or technologically caught up with the West. Besides, with the number of Muslims there are, it would be a massive drain on the world if they were all using up the same amount of energy/resources as someone in Western Europe.

    And if the various Muslim cultures take up the same path the West took, will we lose the cultures that live in yurts and have a culture of falconry? What about the desert-faring nomads? What of the grand mosques made of mud brick that have stood for centuries? And again, what of the saints of the deserts and villages and the small pockets in the outskirts of Damascus and Cairo…will we lose them too?

    I personally think we would benefit from reducing the prevalence of consanguineous marriage in the Islamic world.

    Totally agree – too much of anything is not good. I personally think a healthy level around 10-15% in a given populace. Once you go over 20%, I don’t think that is a good idea. Though it was readily an option for him, the Prophet (pbuh) really only married one cousin out of his many wives.

    I recently began studying Imam Ghazali (ra) and came across this relevant passage

    Excellent statement. Definitely recommend Imam Ghazali (ra) in these sorts of matters; he does a great job of intertwining the understanding of the rulings along with the spiritual aspects and wisdom behind them. And balance…balance and moderation are key.

  117. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Talha

    The genetic explanation leaves much to be desired, two or three generations ago whites were quite racist and pretty violent towards others – so much so that they even ethnically cleansed each other on their own continent. A tectonic shift within such a short time has few coherent biological explanations.

    That is the big weakness of biological explanations and ideas like HBD – human behaviour can change extraordinarily quickly.

    The Japanese were militaristic, expansionist and imperialist in the 1930s. And their behaviour in war was brutal and even cruel. Within a few years of the end of the war there was virtually no trace whatsoever of such behaviours. This was clearly a mostly cultural change. And it seems to have been permanent. No-one would describe modern Japan as even remotely militaristic, expansionist and imperialist.

    I’m not convinced that this can be explained by the theory that all the militaristic, expansionist and imperialist Japanese were killed. The change has been too complete and too spectacular.

    Human behaviour can also change very rapidly in the wake of a religious revolution. Rome certainly changed under the influence of Christianity. The sadistic gladiatorial contests and wild beast shows were considered to be good clean fun for all the family in pagan Rome. Roman entertainment became a lot less sadistic under Christian influence. Sure, chariot racing (which became the new entertainment craze) was dangerous but it wasn’t sadistic, and Romans had changed so much that they even had forms of mutual help societies to aid chariot racers who were injured and to look after the families of any who got themselves killed.

    Sexual behaviour (which one might imagine to be fundamentally biological) has changed dramatically at various times in history under the influence of religious or ideological revolutions. The hyper-conservative sexual mores of the Puritans marked a fairly dramatic break from pre-Reformation European sexual mores.

    Human behaviour seems to be remarkably malleable.

    • Agree: Talha
    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Audacious Epigone
  118. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Yahya K.

    Regarding materialism, I think the Golden Mean principle applies here. Too little material wealth isn’t a good thing. Its easy to go all hipster and bash on “muh materialism” and idealize the noble savage and such, but when push comes to shove, all of us would rather be rich than poor.

    I agree.

    You have to keep in mind that the dramatic increase in prosperity beginning in the 19th century and continuing into the 20th century did not happen in isolation. It happened at the same time as other profound social and cultural changes – the change from mostly agrarian societies to industrial societies, dramatic increases in urbanisation, mass literacy and compulsory education for the masses, the development of mass media, etc.

    So it’s almost impossible to isolate the actual effects of prosperity. It’s certainly impossible simply to assert that prosperity leads to decadence or to degeneracy or to nihilism. Or to any of the other ills that often get blamed on prosperity.

    We can’t even say for certain that prosperity is a major contributing factor.

  119. Talha says:
    @dfordoom

    Human behaviour seems to be remarkably malleable.

    A conclusion which should be met with quite a lot of enthusiasm, I should think, because it grants a lot of room for optimism about the future despite the current state of affairs.

    Peace.

    • Agree: dfordoom
  120. @dfordoom

    Asserting it has nothing to do with race might be an overstatement, but South Africa’s TFR is 2.2. That’s strikingly low for sub-Saharan Africa. The question is what will happen as South Africa continues to de-white–will its TFR go back up as it reverts back to the sub-Saharan African norm?

  121. @dfordoom

    Yes, one of the defining characteristics of homo sapiens is our adaptability. What other species has colonized every environment on earth? Everything else has had to speciate to do it. Not us.

    • Agree: Yahya K., Talha

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