Reuters-Ipsos’ interactive polling explorer site has just added state filters back into the mix after pulling them a couple of years ago. This finally allows a look at non-Hispanic white vote share by state for the 2016 US presidential election. The sample size is huge, with 84,210 whites who either voted for Trump or Clinton included. The following map and subsequent table shows Trump’s white voter share by state in a two-way race:
|6) South Carolina||70.8|
|8) South Dakota||70.3|
|10) West Virginia||68.7|
|15) North Dakota||64.7|
|17) North Carolina||62.2|
|27) New Mexico||56.5|
|36) New Jersey||50.4|
|40) New York||48.9|
|45) New Hampshire||44.9|
|47) Rhode Island||43.1|
|51) District of Columbia||36.3|
Reuters has a pretty consistent left-leaning bias in its polling. Nationally, it shows Trump getting 56.8% of the two-way white vote compared to the 61.0% reported by the officially commissioned exit poll on election night. Add a compensating four points to Trump’s state shares and he picks up Maine, Minnesota, New York, Illinois, Connecticut, Washington, and California. Just an extra 137 electoral votes–no big deal!
The exact hypothetical margin of victory in the 2016 ethnoUnited States presidential election isn’t as important as the fact that the Republican victory would be overwhelming both in the popular vote and in the electoral college.
Keep in mind that McMuffin’s presence in Utah filches a lot of Trump’s margin of white victory from him and that in this rendering McMuffin probably also steals Minnesota from Trump to give to Clinton.
If the vote were restricted to white men (forgive my not taking the time to shade accordingly–this is purely winner-take-all fantasy fun):