The Unz Review: An Alternative Media Selection
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
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The inverse correlation between favoring stricter gun laws and Donald Trump's share of the 2016 presidential vote is a remarkable .95. That is a staggeringly strong relationship for the social sciences. Indeed, it is effectively a perfect correlation after sampling noise is accounted for. More than abortion, immigration, taxation, race relations, war, or any other... Read More
COTW from 216: It's a variation on the prediction often echoed here that Sulla is on the way. On the other hand, a popular groundswell of anger--the manifestation of which will dwarf the size and scope of both the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street combined--is on the horizon. Its primary target will be the... Read More
Bold Brian or Callous Kemp? Mostly the latter, though it depends on who you're asking. If it's people who voted for the Georgia governor, there's an elevated chance for the former, but the odds are still long. The following graph shows the percentages of Americans who believe it will be safe to fire things back... Read More
Correlations with coronavirus death rates as of April 11, 2020 at the state level are weak across the board: Obesity rate -- (.13) Median age -- .09 Clinton's 2016 vote share -- (.04) Population density -- .13 White population % -- (.18) Black population % -- .20 Asian population % -- .13 Hispanic population %... Read More
As of April 3rd, the peak rate of growth in confirmed coronavirus cases is in the rearview mirror of every American state and territory. This welcome news comes in spite of greatly increased nationwide testing capacity that makes it less likely than before that symptomatic cases go undiagnosed. Absent a resurgence following the relaxation of... Read More
Confirmed coronavirus cases per 100,000 people as of March 31, 2020: State Cases/100k New York 389.7 New Jersey 210.5 Louisiana 112.7 Massachusetts 95.2 Michigan 76.4 Connecticut 72.1 District of Columbia 70.1 Washington 68.1 Illinois 47.0 Rhode Island 46.1 Colorado 45.6 Vermont 41.0 Pennsylvania 38.8 Nevada 36.1 Georgia 35.3 Delaware 32.8 Indiana 32.1 Mississippi 31.5 Florida... Read More
Last week we found: Six days later, with the confirmed nationwide caseload approaching 20,000, the respective correlations have increased from .40 to .58 and from .09 to .16. Correlation does not necessarily mean causation, of course. When increasing the sample size also increases the strength of the correlation, though, it suggests we're onto something real.... Read More
When the corona dust settles, there may not be a single state where a majority of public schools are not closed for an extended period of time. If a handful do end up remaining open for the duration, though, NAEP (National Assessment of Educational Progress) comparisons between 2019 and 2021 will provide a great experiment... Read More
Elizabeth Warren on how sexism sunk her campaign (just listen for eight seconds): A bazillion, huh? Among women who participated in a Democrat primary or caucus through Super Tuesday, more than 4-in-5 voted for a man, while fewer than 1-in-5 voted for a woman. There is not a single state where anything close to a... Read More
The inverse correlation between a state's housing affordability ranking and the percentage of its population that is foreign-born is a rigorous .62. This is not because bringing people in boosts demand for and thus the cost of housing, of course. That would be xenophobic. It is the unaffordable housing that in fact attracts the immigrants... Read More
The following table and map show estimated mean Asian IQ by state from 2019 NAEP mathematics and reading results among Asian eighth grade public school students. Estimates are computed by averaging mathematics and reading scores and then converting those to IQ scores, assuming a national average IQ of 96 and a standard deviation of 15.... Read More
The map below depicts demographic majorities of 4th grade public school students by state: Most states remain majority-white, but the four most populous states do not. Consequently, the nationwide elementary public school population is now majority-minority. Assuming current demographic trends continue, the country will likewise have become majority-minority by the time these students reach middle-aged... Read More
The following table and map show estimated mean Hispanic IQ by state from 2019 NAEP mathematics and reading results among Hispanic eighth grade public school students. Estimates are computed by averaging mathematics and reading scores and then converting those to IQ scores, assuming a national average IQ of 96 and a standard deviation of 15.... Read More
The following table and map show estimated mean black IQ by state from 2019 NAEP mathematics and reading results among non-Hispanic black eighth grade public school students. Estimates are computed by averaging mathematics and reading scores and then converting them to IQ scores assuming a national average IQ of 96 and a standard deviation of... Read More
The following table and map show estimated mean IQ by state from 2019 NAEP mathematics and reading results among non-Hispanic white eighth grade public school students. Estimates are computed by averaging mathematics and reading scores and then converting them to IQ scores assuming a national average IQ of 98 96 and a standard deviation of... Read More
The following table and map show estimated mean IQ by state from 2019 NAEP mathematics and reading results among eighth grade public school students. Table coloring corresponds to how states voted in the 2016 US presidential election. Estimates are computed by averaging mathematics and reading scores and then converting them to IQ scores assuming a... Read More
The following map and table show the number of articles in The New York Times mentioning each of the fifty states and Washington, D.C., per 10,000 people in population, over the last decade: State Mentions Vermont 133.1 Alaska 104.0 New York 103.6 Washington, D.C. 76.9 Maine 65.3 New Hampshire 65.2 Delaware 63.1 Wyoming 57.1 Montana... Read More
One curious aspect of hate crime, which we are told is on the rise in Trump's America, is how it is predominantly a blue state phenomenon. The inverse correlation between Trump's share of the vote and the rate of reported hate crime incidents is .60. That strikingly robust relationship is buoyed by the District of... Read More
The following three things strike me as necessary (if not necessarily sufficient): 1) A moratorium on immigration lasting at least a generation 2) The repatriation of non-citizens unauthorized to be in the country 3) The return of native fertility to at least replacement level If these things do not happen--and it seems unlikely that any,... Read More
The following graphs show two-way partisan affiliation among whites and total fertility rates among whites by state. The state-level results correlate at an impressive .73. States where whites still have a few babies here and there are red ones: The future belongs to those who show up, so if you're looking for comfort where some... Read More
The Imperial Capital is the only 'state' in the country that has, since 1970, lost non-whites and gained whites, in both absolute numbers and in percentage-terms. Funny how the political power center driving the Great Replacement has itself not only remained impervious to that replacement, it has--alone among the states--actually reversed the trend. The following... Read More
Reuters-Ipsos has a poll tracking partisan affiliation that has been running since the beginning of 2016. It now has a total sample standing at 457,215 responses. The explorer allows for all kinds of filters to be applied, including state of residency, educational attainment, race, and 2016 presidential vote. So here are the results with those... Read More
The indefatigable Ron Unz stirred the pot by publishing his formerly private missive from last year addressed to those on the alt right. Ron points out that even as California has become considerably less white over the last fifty years, white racial consciousness has even less purchase in the state now than it did then.... Read More
Reuters-Ipsos has a poll tracking partisan affiliation that has been running since the beginning of 2016. It now has a total sample standing at 457,215 responses. The explorer allows for all kinds of filters to be applied, including state of residency, educational attainment, race, and 2016 presidential vote. So here are the results with those... Read More
From Trends' state-level analytics, internet search interest in the term "Holocaust": The Murk Dwellers of the Imperial Capital, many of whom spill over into Virginia and Maryland, are a lot more interested in keeping the industry memory alive than the subjects they rule over are. Backing DC and its suburban states of Virginia and Maryland... Read More
Jig Bohnson on why Kamala Harris won't be president: Because of gerrymandering and the stubborn refusal of non-blacks to live around blacks if they can help it, the Democrat bench has few authentically black blacks on deck for the national batter's box. This contrasts sharply to the congressional level, where many heavily black urban districts... Read More
From Reuters-Ipsos polling, the percentages of non-Hispanic whites, by state, who identify politically as Republicans in a two-party distribution follow. The poll ran from January of 2016 through November of 2018 so it serves as a good measure of partisan affiliation among whites in the Trump era. The total sample for the extended survey runs... Read More
Looking through past polling on Calexit over the last couple of years led to a poll from SurveyUSA with some interesting results. The range of questions the organization puts forward is laudable, though the sample sizes are small. Reuters-Ipsos' huge samples have spoiled me. In this particular survey, questions focus less on perceptions of Trump... Read More
Political dissolution is an idea whose time has come. Advocating it a decade ago was met with mockery even from many of those on the dissident right. No longer. A few years ago, Pat Buchanan began talking about it. Now it's entering mainstream discourse. From New York Magazine (via IHTG): There is no longer any... Read More
The canine crusader pointed to a website maintained by the US Interagency Council on Homelessness--now I can't say I don't get some utility out of federal government agencies!--that tracks homelessness by state. The site itself inexplicably does not include per capita filters for graphical representations, which makes the map outputs so misleading that they're not... Read More
The 2008 numbers are virtually complete for the 50 states, DC, and the four American territories that hold nominating contests. The 2016 numbers include 26 states. For 2016, Texas, Florida, and New York are included but California is not because Hillary Clinton had already secured the nomination by the time California's Democrat primary voters had... Read More
As Ted Cruz fights for his political life in Texas--and the day the state flips reliably blue at the presidential level draws nearer--it's worth noting that even had he lost Texas, Trump would've had a plurality of the electoral college:   I'm fond of saying he would've won even without Texas. In actuality, that's not... Read More
Commentary coming from the outside is really bad. Punditry on the modern left has largely devolved into little more than histrionic virtue signalling and moral posturing. Though the relevant data is seconds away, 0.4 minutes for verification is too much to ask as the same nonsense shows up over and over in the mouths of... Read More
Pairing up with the failing Kansas City Star, ProPublica deployed an "October surprise" attempt to snatch the Kansas Republican gubernatorial nomination from Kris Kobach. Several national outlets like Ralph Maddow, Single Mother Jones, and Daily Poz simultaneously deployed articles on it. As we've long argued here, this race has ramifications extending far beyond this middle... Read More
  August 7th, six days from now. Tap your social networks. Make it easy for them.
The most important gubernatorial primary in the country takes place on Tuesday, August 7th, right in the middle American heartland. When Trump tapped Sam Brownback to convert the heathens, then-lieutenant governor Jeff Colyer inherited the spot. Colyer is an open borders cuck. He's in the farm lobby's back pocket. Under Sebelius, Brownback, and now Colyer,... Read More
Agnostic's assertion that higher wages through left-economic populism--free college tuition, free health care, guaranteed jobs and wages for everyone (including criminals and aliens), etc--will ultimately lead to a reduction in immigration is one we can take a contemporary empirical look at. At the state level, the correlation between the minimum wage and the percentage of... Read More
SurveyUSA is one of my favorite polling organizations because of the unique questions it poses. A few weeks ago a representative survey of 1,100 Californians statewide was commissioned. Respondents were presented with a hypothetical--if they could retain their current job and salary, would they be willing to move to selected other places if it meant... Read More
The preliminary birth figures for 2017 are in. The following graph and table show the percentages of births by state that were to non-Hispanic white babies:   State Wht% 1) Vermont 90.8 2) West Virginia 90.7 3) Maine 89.1 4) New Hampshire 86.8 5) Kentucky 80.9 6) Montana 79.4 7) Wyoming 78.6 8) Iowa 78.1... Read More
The following map and subsequent table show percentages by state who, according to a 2014 Reuters-Ipsos poll, support "the idea of your state peacefully withdrawing from the USA and the federal government" ("don't know" responses are excluded; N = 12,734):   State Secede 1) Alaska 58.3% 2) New Mexico 45.2% 3) Texas 40.4% 4) Illinois... Read More
Reuters-Ipsos' interactive polling explorer site has just added state filters back into the mix after pulling them a couple of years ago. This finally allows a look at non-Hispanic white vote share by state for the 2016 US presidential election. The sample size is huge, with 84,210 whites who either voted for Trump or Clinton... Read More
Using data from the CDC for 2016, Cicerone calculated total fertility rates (TFR) by state and by race for US: Look at the black figures for Maine and Minnesota. Somalis and other Wakandans are doing what Americans won't do--replicate themselves. Utah and North Dakota are above replacement for whites. South Dakota, Idaho, Nebraska, Hawaii, Alaska,... Read More
The following map shows mean average IQ by state using 2013 NAEP scores from eighth graders in math and reading: And this map shows the average credit scores by state, according to 2017 data from VantageScores: Despite the War on Noticing, indefatigably astute readers will detect a similarity between the maps. This is on account... Read More
In this week's edition of The Z Blog Power Hour, Z riffs off Moynihan's Law of the Canadian Border, noting that the closer a state is to our northern neighbor, the more its residents tend to blather on about things like racism and white privilege. From Google Trends, the top ten US states by percentage... Read More
++Disclaimer++The 2015 data assigns a racial/ethnic classification to 99.7% of all recorded births, while the 2016 data only assigns one to 97.0% of all recorded births. I am unsure why the discrepancy is so large between the two years, but it creates the appearance of a larger decline in births by race/ethnicity across the board... Read More
++Disclaimer++The 2015 data assigns a racial/ethnic classification to 99.7% of all recorded births, while the 2016 data only assigns one to 97.0% of all recorded births. I am unsure why the discrepancy is so large between the two years, but it creates the appearance of a larger decline in births by race/ethnicity across the board... Read More
++Disclaimer++The 2015 data assigns a racial/ethnic classification to 99.7% of all recorded births, while the 2016 data only assigns one to 97.0% of all recorded births. I am unsure why the discrepancy is so large between the two years, but it creates the appearance of a larger decline in births by race/ethnicity across the board... Read More
There are a couple more miles yet to get out of the Hispanic Heritage Foundation's huge presidential preference survey administered to high school students across the US in the Fall of 2016. The following map* shows, by state, how much more (less) Trumpish Gen Z 'voters' were than the actual electorate was. The subsequent table... Read More
The percentages of San Franciscan adults who favor the place continuing to be a sanctuary city for illegal aliens, by sex and by race (n = 500): The SurveyUSA poll doesn't provide cross tabs for both race and sex (or data on marriage at all), but given that white marriage rates are higher than non-white... Read More
Google Trends on search volume for "intersectionality": The program analyzes words or phrases as a percentage of all searches at any given period of time, so these results show searches relative to all search activity, not just the absolute number of searches. This is far more useful than if the program returned absolute numbers of... Read More