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Trump's best looooong shot chance to win his reelection bout in a controversial TKO decision is for the Georgia Republicans to lose tonight. That aligns the GOPe's interests with his own. If they really do want the Senate but Loeffler and Perdue lose tonight, they can still get the upper chamber through a Biden defenestration... Read More
Trump did only marginally worse than Republican House members did. In two-way races, Biden beat Trump 52.3%-47.7% while congressional Democrats beat congressional Republicans 51.6%-48.4%. The Republican House outperformed Trump by 0.7 points. So while it is officially technically true that the party outperformed the president, it's hard to read much into its significance. For those... Read More
Relevant res allows me to beat a dead democracy: In a SurveyUSA poll released yesterday, Perdue and Loeffler are reported to be losing their respective Senate runoff races by 5 and 7 points. There is an obvious problem, though. Some 44% of the sample reported voted for Donald Trump last month while 48% voted for... Read More
In the previous post on interracial and intersexual homicide distributions in the US, Kratoklastes and Buzz Mohawk point out these distributions deal with absolute numbers, not rates. By rate, blacks are 11.4 times more likely to perpetrate interracial homicide than whites are, and others--a mishmash category including Asians, American Indians, and many people of mixed... Read More
Mr. Unz recently instituted a new rule on commenting that permits a per-hour maximum of three comments on any single post and ten comments anywhere on The Unz Review. Some of the regulars here have the celerity of mind and dexterity of digits to brush up against those parameters, so if they may apply to... Read More
[edit: The first comment made by a specific handle will have to be manually approved. I'm in the process of setting up regular commenters with the auto-approval funciton. If I missed you, please leave a comment and I'll get you added in. For the purposes of these comment sections, dehumanizing language is anything that refers... Read More
VDare carried the previous post containing some reactions to the 2018 congressional midterms, highlighting the finding that the vast majority of Democrats think it important that fewer whites and fewer men be elected to public office: An NPC, putatively sympathetic to VDare's mission, immediately and publicly cried foul: He was of course blatantly incorrect. The... Read More
The civic nationalists want to believe it. A part of me would like to believe it, too. I've mostly shed that part of myself over the last couple of years as it has become obvious that Trump's Authentic American (whites and blacks) vs Fake American (invaders) paradigm isn't going to materialize, but I'm a pragmatist.... Read More
Vox Day recently disputed the notion that ZOG is a result of high Jewish IQ. In so doing, he's drawing swords with the likes of Gregory Cochran, Charles Murray, and Stephen Pinker. To atrociously mix metaphors, that prices me way out of the cognitive market, so I won't comment on the merits or demerits of... Read More
  These are not unreasonable objections based on what was presented in the previous post. If the general tendency was for people to become more supportive of free speech as they aged, in fact, it could even be misleading. That, however, is not the case, as is illustrated below. People tend to become more conservative... Read More
Ann Coulter picked up the previous post on twatter. In her wake followed a flotilla of what Vox Day derisively refers to as "midwits". Some of the 'criticism' was cringe-inducingly terrible: But some of it was reasonable enough: Yes, following the link would've revealed that it applied to less than one-quarter of all responses, but... Read More
Agnostic regularly offers unique insights that are not found elsewhere. With thought-provoking takes so often unconventional, he can be forgiven for not bowling 300. But I'm compelled to take issue with his reading of the DACA showdown. Several months ago he asserted matter-of-factly that DACAmnesty was a foregone conclusion and that it would be bad... Read More
Steve Sailer, via James Flynn, reports that the (credited) namesake's effect could be a thing of the past. Specifically, scores at the top aren't rising and may actually be declining. This presents a good enough opportunity to point out what has caused me some low-level cognitive dissonance for years now--there isn't much evidence in the... Read More
He is seriously misleading at best: Charitably, "often" isn't intended to be synonymous with "tend to", "usually", or any other word or phrase that indicates liberals are more likely to live 'family values' than conservatives do. Instead, Kristof is taken to be merely stating the bland and obvious fact that there are some liberals who... Read More
Commenter Candide III: Here is the graph he's referring to: The sentiment is well received. The main reason it was presented as such in this particular case is because the questions considered were dichotomous ones without "don't know", "no opinion", etc as possible responses. To have visually expressed this across a fully displayed y-axis would've... Read More
The previous post generated a lot of "correlation does not equal causation" responses on the ping pong ball forum. Jayman is fond of the mantra, and for good reason, but most of the people chanting it are tedious to deal with. I understand as much, and that all traits are heritable. I could've as easily... Read More
A decade ago I did a series of posts showing, in short, that the "hate crime" designation is a way to get to bizarro world validate The Narrative, with designated victim classes actually looking like victims and designated oppressor classes actually looking like oppressors. The FBI hasn't yet released data on hate crimes for 2016,... Read More
It's previously been pointed out here that Reuters-Ipsos--among other polling organizations--has a history of oversampling self-identified Democrats at the expense of independents and sometimes Republicans. In the case of presidential approval polling, the 'trick' is to poll the adult population rather than "likely voters". Likely voters skew more Republican than the adult population does, in... Read More
The Hispanic Heritage Foundation's 2016 presidential primary survey asked participants about their "attitude[s] towards politicians". Other than the no opinion/don't know answers, there were five possible responses. Three fit into one bucket. The remaining two fit into another. They've been separated accordingly below. The distribution of high school student responses on attitudes towards politicians in... Read More
Sid, detecting a switch from Hitler to Stalin as the Most Evil Person in History: That would be one hell of a rhetorical contortion for the zeitgeist to undergo if Stalin becomes the new Hitler. If it comes to pass I'll have to shelve one of my favorite normie-triggering Steve Sailer quotes: "Lenin, Stalin, and... Read More
Reuters-Ipsos presidential approval polling results from last week: Yikes, looks bad. They all do, excepting Rasmussen--the outfit that nailed the popular vote margin perfectly in 2016--which is mediocre rather than just plain bad for Trump. R-I's sample raises suspicions, though. The partisan breakdown among those surveyed: Democrat -- 45% Republican -- 33% Independent/other -- 21%... Read More
In addition to asking respondents to racially self-identify from among 16 categories, including "White", "Hispanic", and "Other", the GSS separately asks respondents if they are "Spanish, Hispanic, or Latino/Latina". The following graph shows the percentages of those who racially identified as "White" (rather than as "Hispanic" or "Other") who, when asked whether or not they... Read More
In a characteristically perspicacious Taki's Magazine article, Steve Sailer writes: A couple of clarifying comments I should've fleshed out more fully in previous posts: - For the cohort having attended college in the 2010s, 100.0 may be more than 2 points above the population mean. The total sample is based on an assumption of a... Read More
The previous post on the apparent decline in the average IQ of college graduates in the US over the last fifty years used the GSS' 10-question Wordsum vocabulary test as a basis for those IQ estimates. As was pointed out, vocabulary tends to increase with age (through the late fifties before peaking and then beginning... Read More
While the US is not and has never been a "nation of immigrants", Israel was almost from the beginning. In the 1950s, around half--maybe more, it's tough to tell with certainty--of those living in the country were immigrants. Still today a larger share Israel's population is foreign-born than has ever been the case throughout the... Read More
The reports of white death have been slightly exaggerated! Five years ago the US Census, in an announcement that was joyfully picked up by a host of media outlets, announced that non-Hispanic white (from hereon just "white") births constituted a minority of all births in the US for the first time ever. The claim came... Read More
- Multiple people have balked at Trump's apparent Mormon support. This comment at Heartiste's is illustrative: Keep in mind the results were in the context of a two-way race. Evan McMullin, the Mormon who was futilely pushed by cuckservatives in a ridiculously far-fetched attempt to send the election to the House of representatives, sucked up... Read More
The following table and map show Trump's electoral performance relative to RCP's two-way polling averages, by state. The poll results were averaged except for the few cases where no polling had been conducted since October 1--in those states, the most recent poll was used as the RCP 'average'. There was no polling data available at... Read More
The following table shows how each state's percentage of the Reuters-Ipsos' national polling sample running from 7/28 through 10/25 compared to its percentage of the nationwide vote in the 2012 presidential election. In other words, it shows how over- and under-weighted each state is in determining R-I's nationwide polling results. Figures over 100% indicate that... Read More
The Reuters-Ipsos interactive interface for the organization's national presidential tracking poll is a composite of the results obtained from the 50 states and DC. The national sample of likely general election voters totals 22,846; the sum of the states over this same period of time comes to 23,310. It's unclear where those additional 464 participants... Read More
I'm not able to make the time to do the digging I'd like to at the moment, but playing around with the R-I interface that allows users to toggle cross-tabs, I noticed that since September 1st, R-I has sampled just 376 likely voters in Texas to 565 likely voters in Virginia. The 50 states and... Read More
Gregory Cochran descended to say a few things about political polling and elections outcomes. It is by default worth reading because it's written by him, but commenter pyrrhus' dissenting remark is what really caught my eye: In the primaries we saw polling in the earlier state contests regularly overestimating Trump's performance while polling in later... Read More
On multiple occasions an anonymous commenter has pointed out the Trump campaign's missed opportunity with regards to registering unregistered white voters over the last year: The thought is that without additional white voters, Trump will have to do about 3 points better than Romney did among whites in 2012. Trump will have to get 62%... Read More
Another small bridge connecting the races together was burned in the virtual world last week. A black guy I went to high school with, Brandon, wrote the following in response to the Charlotte shooting: The line about "the sins of your ancestors" is particularly remarkable because if whites ever lose the religiously-tinged sense of racism... Read More
The poll has come under criticism for oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans and independents. That suggests Trump will outperform Reuters-Ipsos' expectations. In response to a reader's inquiry, I looked at the respondent polls from August 1st through September 23rd to see about the educational distribution. The poll has drawn 53% of its responses from those... Read More
Steve Sailer's been asking about the feasibility of Hillary stepping down. Around 20 states have already finalized their ballots so such an action would require an enormous amount of rule-breaking. That's her forte so maybe it's a viable option anyway. What seems more 'problematic' from Team Clinton's perspective is the assumption everyone considering Hillary stepping... Read More
Last Friday (7/22), Trump and Hillary both posted shareable graphics for facebook users to showcase who they're voting for in November. As of Monday (7/29) at 9pm, this is what they showed: Trump's photo has been liked and shared by over 50% more people than Hillary's has been even though Hillary's specifically asks users to... Read More
We've spent some time looking at the bizarrely skewed Reuters-Ipsos general election polling that has, over the last couple of months, included survey samples that are often more than 50% self-identified Democrats, about one-third Republican, and the residual being independents or third-party backers.The latest R-I poll is a staggering 56% Democrat, 39% Republican, and 5%... Read More
It may seem like I'm beating a dead horse here, but I'm not. The night mare is very much alive. Today Reuters/Ipsos formally released the results of its latest five-day tracking poll headlined "Clinton extends lead over Trump to 13 points". The national poll of likely general election voters, which was administered entirely online, was... Read More
Cicatrizatic notices that nearly half of those who participated in the latest formal Reuters-Ipsos presidential preference poll are Democrats while just one-third are Republicans. Reuters-Ipsos tracks the figures daily. It has done so for a head-to-head match up between Hillary and Trump since May 1. The following graph shows the partisan affiliation of "likely general... Read More
The following is a response to a friend who wondered about my reaction to this. It's germane to subjects that have dominated the blog for the last several months so it's worth sharing, keeping in mind that it's more free-wheeling than I generally (try to) allow myself to be here. I've added a few relevant links.---So... Read More
George Gilder discusses this in his book Men and Marriage but the data he uses is three decades old. There may be a way to get at the question via US Census data on households but the questions differ from survey to survey and tend to report household totals without breaking down individual income contributions.Fortunately, there are... Read More
Nate Silver is tormented by Trump's success. He's offered multiple kinda-sorta explanations and excuses as to why he so wildly and spectacularly missed the mark on Trump before, but a couple of days ago he let loose with a massive post that is still, well, a kinda-sorta explanation on why he was so wrong. Here's... Read More
The Trump phenomenon has basically taken over here. It's quite fascinating. In anticipation of a lull in quantitative material related to the presidential campaign over the next couple of months, here are a few general thoughts: - In the debates Trump will be playing with house money. Primary turnout has been record-setting on the Republican... Read More
In a post attempting to explain why voters choose Trump, Nate Silver--who was wildly off the mark on Trump's chances (see here, here, here, and here to observe a rank amateur kicking him up and down the road)--offers nothing close to a genuine mea culpa for having gotten the Republican nomination so wrong.He did concede... Read More
Google Trends search results for the phrase over the last several years: And the top seven (Trends' display number, not mine) states by search index share: The political and punditry classes are becoming aware of a new game-changing cultural force that is shifting the intellectual landscape under their feet. As Trump smashes one PC taboo... Read More
++Addition3++Steve Sailer takes note. It's worth pointing out that this overperformance is, to some extent, expected since undecided likely voters are excluded. That is somewhat offset by the votes for people no longer actively campaigning who aren't inquired about in polls but who still end up getting votes (Cruz lost to Ben Carson in one... Read More
The markets have Trump winning the GOP nomination at 60% and the likelihood of a contested convention at 57%, or a 43% chance the nomination is decided on the first ballot. It's inconceivable that Cruz wins in the first round. Consequently, we're looking at an 17% chance accorded to Trump if it goes into extra... Read More
Turnout in Colorado's Republican caucus on March 1 was likely down from 2012 in an election cycle where every other state's turnout was way up from four years ago. The following graph shows turnout changes between 2012 and 2016 in the Super Tuesday states for Republicans (in red) and Democrats (in blue): As is now... Read More
Let's assess Colorado. In August of 2015, the Colorado Republican party announced that it would be cancelling its scheduled presidential preference caucus set for the Spring of 2016. The party did this in response to national party rules requiring delegates awarded to candidates through preference caucuses and primaries--that is, elections where candidates are directly voted... Read More