The Unz Review: An Alternative Media Selection
A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media
Show by  
Email This Page to Someone

 Remember My Information



=>
 BlogAudacious Epigone Archive
/
Presidential Race '12

Bookmark Toggle AllToCAdd to LibraryRemove from Library • BShow CommentNext New CommentNext New ReplyRead More
ReplyAgree/Disagree/Etc. More... This Commenter This Thread Hide Thread Display All Comments
AgreeDisagreeThanksLOLTroll
These buttons register your public Agreement, Disagreement, Thanks, LOL, or Troll with the selected comment. They are ONLY available to recent, frequent commenters who have saved their Name+Email using the 'Remember My Information' checkbox, and may also ONLY be used three times during any eight hour period.
Ignore Commenter Follow Commenter
A SurveyUSA poll on the upcoming gubernatorial election in Georgia asked respondents about who they planned on voting for and also about their opinions on eight policy questions. What jumps out immediately from the results is how much wider the racial disparity is on the question of who to vote for than it is on... Read More
The correlation between gun ownership rates at the state level and Romney's share of the presidential vote in 2012 was a robust .78. Late last year into early this year, Reuters-Ipsos ran a poll on gun ownership with a 2016 presidential vote filter included for cross-tabbing. Trump won the gun owner vote 71%-29%. Though exit... Read More
Agnostic regularly offers unique insights that are not found elsewhere. With thought-provoking takes so often unconventional, he can be forgiven for not bowling 300. But I'm compelled to take issue with his reading of the DACA showdown. Several months ago he asserted matter-of-factly that DACAmnesty was a foregone conclusion and that it would be bad... Read More
An innocuous canine asks: Non-whites are the ringers they're really after, and you should want them here, too, you reprllent racist filth:
Here's one to file neatly under the blog's tagline. The following graph shows the electoral behavior of foreign-born voters--mostly voting legally--in US presidential elections since 1992*:
Commenter Random Dude on the Internet turns a light bulb on in my head: While I spend an inordinate amount of time mining the GSS, I still miss things. Big things, sometimes, and this is one of them. In three iterations the survey has asked respondents if they are citizens or not. Across these three... Read More
When it comes to Israel the US, Ben Shapiro is color-blind. He explains: Well darn. How about blacks and whites opposed to income redistribution: This is getting embarrassing. Maybe when the ideology is more abstract, like the idea that government does too much and is too large. Surely blacks and whites in agreement on that... Read More
The following map and table show the change in the margin of victory in the 2016 presidential election relative to 2012, by state, with positive (negative) figures indicating an improvement (deterioration) in the margin for Republicans. That is, the colors do not indicate who won the state in 2016, but show how much better (worse)... Read More
In the previous post it was noted that according to exit polling data the entire increase in Hispanic turnout in the 2016 election compared to the 2012 election was accounted for--and then some--by an increase in California's Hispanic turnout. Pithom doesn't buy it: I didn't make it clear enough that I'm skeptical of the veracity... Read More
With the caveats about the reliability and precision of exit polling data kept in mind, consider that Hispanics went from 10% to 11% of the national electorate between 2012 and 2016, an increase of about 10%. In California, Hispanics went from 22% to 31% between 2012 and 2016, an increase of about 40%. Some 30%... Read More
The following table and map show Trump's electoral performance relative to RCP's two-way polling averages, by state. The poll results were averaged except for the few cases where no polling had been conducted since October 1--in those states, the most recent poll was used as the RCP 'average'. There was no polling data available at... Read More
++Addition++Cicatrizatic on why Trump should narrowly win Nevada and North Carolina as well. --- Through Friday, Republicans held a slim lead in early voting in Florida:
A SurveyUSA poll has Trump up by seven in the tar heel state. The poll contains a few potentially huge indicators of a Trump winning the presidency if they scale nationally.- Among blacks, Hillary's lead is only 84%-14%, and 72% of Trump's blacks supporters say they are voting for him "enthusiastically"; 65% of Hillary's blacks... Read More
The following table shows how each state's percentage of the Reuters-Ipsos' national polling sample running from 7/28 through 10/25 compared to its percentage of the nationwide vote in the 2012 presidential election. In other words, it shows how over- and under-weighted each state is in determining R-I's nationwide polling results. Figures over 100% indicate that... Read More
I'm not able to make the time to do the digging I'd like to at the moment, but playing around with the R-I interface that allows users to toggle cross-tabs, I noticed that since September 1st, R-I has sampled just 376 likely voters in Texas to 565 likely voters in Virginia. The 50 states and... Read More
How self-identified political liberals voted in the 2012 presidential election, by race:
Again, what isn't? How self-identified political conservatives voted in the 2012 presidential election, by race:
Then again, what isn't? How self-identified political moderates voted in the 2012 presidential election, by race:
The Mercatus Center at GMU recently released a report on the fiscal health of each of the states--or more precisely, the fiscal health of each state's government. The methodology looks sophisticated and reasonable. Since the report wasn't commissioned to be evaluated on the factors I'm evaluating it on, I'm comfortable using it as a plausible... Read More
Three battleground state polls were released today by Quinnipiac:
Today I was explaining the 2016 electoral cycle to my dad. He follows cable news and talk and public radio casually. After slogging through the Hillary-is-the-new-Obama strategy (or how you don't win the Democrat nomination without blacks) that will win her the nomination and explaining how I became so confident that I could clean up... Read More
We've seen that Trump cleans Hillary's clock among independents by a more than 2-to-1 margin, while against Cruz she actually holds a modest lead with them. What about Democrat likely voters in November? Turns out Trump does better than Cruz here as well. Hillary vs Trump: Hillary vs Cruz: If Trump is able to beat... Read More
New Hampshire's primary is not closed. People who are not registered with either major party are able to vote in either side's primary, but they are only allowed to vote in one or the other, not both.In 2008, 54.6% of all New Hampshire primary votes were cast on the Democrat side, to 45.4% for the... Read More
Heartiste writes: The evidence is overwhelming and indisputable among women unmoored by the oppressive patriarchal institution of marriage. The electoral intentions of never married women on election day, 2012:
A recent Associated Press headline reads "Democratic insiders rate Rubio, Kasich as tough to beat, not Trump or Carson". The AP asked Democratic superdelegates who they thought potentially presented Hillary Clinton her toughest electoral challenge. Rubio came out on top with 37%. Kasich was second at 26%, and ¡Jabe! was third with 20%. Trump got... Read More
Albeit modestly so. The 2014 GSS data are out. Converting wordsum results to IQ scores with an average wordsum of 6.11 and a standard deviation of 1.83 wordsum points, the mean IQ of 2012 presidential election voters by who they voted for (n = 988): Voted for IQ Obama 99.0 Romney 100.8 3rd party 105.3... Read More
John Derbyshire got his hands on a campaign support email for and from Jeff Bell. Bell is the Republican challenger for the New Jersey Senate seat currently held by Democrat Cory Booker. Some snippets from the Derb's excerpts: Mitt Romney is too much of a restrictionist for Bell's tastes. The Derb has a devastating take... Read More
Steve Sailer, touching on the tendency for presidential elections to bring out marginal voters who don't participate in mid-term elections: That seems a plausible working assumption, though trying to quantify the electoral differences between mid-term and presidential election cycles has revealed it to be less obvious than I would have assumed it would be. Taking... Read More
As one of the most demographically representative states in the country, and one with an enormous amount of American history packed into it to boot, the gubernatorial results out of Virginia this week are worth examining as a way of better understanding America's contemporary social landscape. - Cuccinelli, the Republican, won among whites by a... Read More
Although the 2012 GSS did not include any questions on presidential voting plans for the same year, the survey did sneak in a question on presidential approval, querying respondents on whether they approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the job of president. Because it's fun and often causes people to make... Read More
Randall Parker points to a CNBC article focused on unfunded pension liabilities at the state level that is packed with quite a bit of data on the financial condition of the fifty. I've been after something like this for several years. There are multiple ways to view the numbers, but probably the most broadly informative... Read More
Writes Jack Hunter: Ever the proverbial fool, after seeing that pithy rhetorical ploy I knew I had to say something. The Herostratus effect must be an order of magnitude larger than any further attempts to restrict the public's access to guns could hope to be. A decade their senior and having never toked up in... Read More
Jack Cashill, who is always putting forward interesting and controversial (in an accurate sense of the word) ideas, is one of my favorite writers, not least of all because he plugged me into the local political scene. His recent contention that early voting was a key to Obama's reelection victory is hardly an exception to... Read More
Reflecting on the 2012 presidential election, Half Sigma writes:The Edison exit polls, paid for and reported on by the major media, didn't query voters on abortion at the state level, but Reuters has the information. The following shows the public split on the legality of abortion in the nine tightest swing states as well as... Read More
There's been a palpable shift among those in the Establishment towards openly, without the air of furtiveness, subjugating the concerns and well being of heterosexual white men to those and that of all our assorted 'minorities'* since Obama's reelection earlier this month. The "new normal" was prominently on display today on NPR's Morning Edition, in... Read More
Alerted by Steve Sailer of the ability to cross tab exit polling data for free via Reuters, I thought it'd be a fun challenge to try and paint an electoral map red--entirely--to contrast with the easy-to-create blue one. Perhaps married white men earning at least six figures annually (though in honor of Jokah Macpherson, I... Read More
Upon realizing that for cost-cutting reasons there were insufficiently sized exit polling operations carried out in 19 safe states and the District of Columbia, I'd resigned myself to the actualization that it wouldn't be possible to create hypothetical electoral maps based on select demographic characteristics for the 2012 Presidential election. Damn. But the media consortium... Read More
The WSJ has a typical, intentionally misleading companion graphic to the 4,134th article in this year's election cycle about the growing, increasingly determinative role of the Hispanic vote in deciding who will become President next January and every four years after that until the earth crashes into the sun:
The Romney/Obama split on individual campaign contributions from current employees of Bain Capital over the last year through the end of the latest FEC reporting period is 77.7%/22.3%. Among those who listed the federal government as their employer, it's 17.0%/83.0%. It's obvious an Obama administration will do everything in its power to keep the beast... Read More
++Addition++Inductivist looks at predictors of support for and opposition to same-sex marriage. --- I didn't get around to looking at the exit polling on North Carolina's recently passed Amendment 1 defining marriage as exclusively existing between one man and one woman last week after the vote had taken place. Finally getting around to doing so... Read More
Not satisfied (nor fully convinced) by looking at a few select exit polls, I calculated the total number of self-described tea partiers, defined as those who either "support" or "strongly support" the movement, who have voted for the four Republican Presidential candidates up through the Alabama and Mississippi primaries that took place earlier this week,... Read More
In a previous post, I tried to convey that self-described tea party members are essentially uber conservative (in the contemporary American political context) rather than being decidedly libertarian in their emphasis. I didn't articulate the point too well, because, well, verbal articulation isn't my forte. So let's turn to the Arizona exit poll results for... Read More
The fact that Ron Paul blows the rest of the GOP presidential field out of the water when it comes to campaign contributions from military personnel is one that the Republican establishment can't profitably address. This isn't 1975. In 2012, US military personnel are among the most respected and honored people in the country. Consequently,... Read More
++Addition++Noah offered some much needed guidance as to what geographic areas constitute "the beltway". Due diligence has now been done. I've cleaned up the FEC zip code areas to better reflect what the post was trying to show (and now more accurately does).---We hear plenty of grumbling from the conservative 'grassroots' about those referred to... Read More
Having a little more fun at the FEC website, I calculated the total dollar amounts received by presidential candidate through the end of November 2011 from individuals* who listed "lobbyist" as their occupations:Presidential candidateLobbyist $1. Rick Perry$25,5002. Tim Pawlenty$11,7703. Newt Gingrich$11,5004. Mitt Romney$8,0005. Rick Santorum$3,0006. Herman Cain$2,5007. Barack Obama$1,1508. Jon Hunstman$5009. Michelle Bachmann$25010. Charles "Buddy"... Read More
Reading Mangan's recent post contrasting the top sources of campaign contributions for the Romney and Paul presidential campaigns, I was surprised to find that the Texas congressman's three largest boosters are the Army, Air Force, and Navy. As Dennis points out, the lists compiled by OpenSecrets.org are comprised of donations from employees, family members, and... Read More
The strategy is as simple as it is obvious as it is disingenuous. Continue to urge Republicans to abandon immigration restrictionism and instead Hispander at full bore. It's inevitable that Hispanics are going to continue growing not only in absolute numbers but also as a share of the US population, so best not to do... Read More
Apparently reeling a bit from a publicizing of the uptick in deportations that have taken place under the Obama administration, the department of homeland security announced that it will abnegate deportation proceedings against some 215,000 El Salvadorans illegally present in the US through at least late 2013, citing damage from earthquakes--earthquakes that occurred in the... Read More
++Addition++Razib explains why the quest for the representative state is doomed to fail.I should point out that I'm not arguing much of anything in this post but instead have created a list that does just what it is purported to do--show by what amount each state deviates from the national mean when it comes to... Read More
With Herman Cain out, race isn't an issue in the Republican presidential nominating process. It never was among voters, of course, as GOP voters are overwhelmingly white. Age, educational attainment, income, sex, and religious affiliation are still there, but of the polling data I've combed through, the only characteristic outside of political orientation (is the... Read More