The Unz Review: An Alternative Media Selection
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Presidential Race '08

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The 2008 numbers are virtually complete for the 50 states, DC, and the four American territories that hold nominating contests. The 2016 numbers include 26 states. For 2016, Texas, Florida, and New York are included but California is not because Hillary Clinton had already secured the nomination by the time California's Democrat primary voters had... Read More
A decade ago, immigration was a fringe issue, even among Republican voters. The following graph shows the percentages of registered voters in 2008 and today, by partisan affiliation, who identified (or identify) "immigration" as the most important issue facing the country:
Agnostic regularly offers unique insights that are not found elsewhere. With thought-provoking takes so often unconventional, he can be forgiven for not bowling 300. But I'm compelled to take issue with his reading of the DACA showdown. Several months ago he asserted matter-of-factly that DACAmnesty was a foregone conclusion and that it would be bad... Read More
An innocuous canine asks: Non-whites are the ringers they're really after, and you should want them here, too, you reprllent racist filth:
Here's one to file neatly under the blog's tagline. The following graph shows the electoral behavior of foreign-born voters--mostly voting legally--in US presidential elections since 1992*:
The Derb cringes in response to Trump's ebullient praise for China's president: China can be China as far as I'm concerned. There's no country more advantageous for the US to be in the relative good graces of, and if it takes an extra application of verbal lather to get there, so be it. I certainly... Read More
Commenter Random Dude on the Internet turns a light bulb on in my head: While I spend an inordinate amount of time mining the GSS, I still miss things. Big things, sometimes, and this is one of them. In three iterations the survey has asked respondents if they are citizens or not. Across these three... Read More
As Obama gives his farewell address leaving the party he's lead for eight years in shambles, now is as good a time as ever to point out how much more interest the Trump phenomenon garnered than the Obama one ever did. From Google Trends, search volumes over time since the beginning of 2007: You
A SurveyUSA poll has Trump up by seven in the tar heel state. The poll contains a few potentially huge indicators of a Trump winning the presidency if they scale nationally.- Among blacks, Hillary's lead is only 84%-14%, and 72% of Trump's blacks supporters say they are voting for him "enthusiastically"; 65% of Hillary's blacks... Read More
We've seen Hillary's problem with whites. In the 26 state primaries and caucuses where exit polling was conducted in both '08 and '16, this time around she received fewer white votes in 23 of them than she did when she lost the nomination to Obama in '08.But the Democrats have a black problem, too. Across... Read More
The following table shows the change in the number of white votes Hillary Clinton received in the 2016 Democrat primaries and caucuses compared to the 2008 Democrat primaries and caucuses for states where exit polling was conducting in both years (with the exception of Iowa, whose entrance polls in '08 didn't record respondent race):State%chngWest Virginia-75.9Vermont-65.4Mississippi-51.4Oklahoma-42.0Indiana-36.9Arkansas-34.3Pennsylvania-31.2North... Read More
Three battleground state polls were released today by Quinnipiac:
The trickle of attention we observed from New Hampshire has turned into a torrent, as established voices on the right are taking notice of how Trump is turning out YUGE numbers of primary voters. And not just registered Republicans, either--unaffiliated voters who have their choice of primary are far more likely to choose the Republican... Read More
Hillary dominated South Carolina last night because nearly two-in-three primary voters were black:
Today I was explaining the 2016 electoral cycle to my dad. He follows cable news and talk and public radio casually. After slogging through the Hillary-is-the-new-Obama strategy (or how you don't win the Democrat nomination without blacks) that will win her the nomination and explaining how I became so confident that I could clean up... Read More
In the 2008 Democrat presidential nomination campaign, Hillary beat Obama among whites and among Hispanics, but he crushed her among blacks and ultimately ended up as president for eight years as a consequence. This time around Hillary is the new Obama and Bernie Sanders is the new Hillary. These Nevada entrance poll results illustrate the... Read More
New Hampshire's primary is not closed. People who are not registered with either major party are able to vote in either side's primary, but they are only allowed to vote in one or the other, not both.In 2008, 54.6% of all New Hampshire primary votes were cast on the Democrat side, to 45.4% for the... Read More
John Derbyshire got his hands on a campaign support email for and from Jeff Bell. Bell is the Republican challenger for the New Jersey Senate seat currently held by Democrat Cory Booker. Some snippets from the Derb's excerpts: Mitt Romney is too much of a restrictionist for Bell's tastes. The Derb has a devastating take... Read More
Two-dimensional political orientations (right-left, conservative-liberal, etc) don't tend to map well onto one country from another, even when the populations of the countries under consideration share large swaths of identity in terms of language, history, religion, and culture. Corresponding party affiliations map even more poorly still from country to country. In the US, secession is... Read More
Steve Sailer, touching on the tendency for presidential elections to bring out marginal voters who don't participate in mid-term elections: That seems a plausible working assumption, though trying to quantify the electoral differences between mid-term and presidential election cycles has revealed it to be less obvious than I would have assumed it would be. Taking... Read More
One of my more instructive (and favorite, personally) posts shows hypothetical electoral maps from the 2008 presidential election when varying selected demographic restrictions are introduced. I'll do the same this November and as a refresher for doing so, here is a look at how things would've shaken out if only those from households earning at... Read More
Following up with thoughts from the previous post, that the electoral tendencies of moderates are defined in large part by the political atmospheres of the states they live in doesn't necessarily mean the same holds true for their more ideologically committed cohorts. Conservatives are sparse in California, but the state still produces hard-liners like Tom... Read More
Do liberals, moderates, and conservatives respectively vote Democratic, split, and Republican in roughly equal proportions across states, the difference being that the Wyoming breakdown is 14%/47%/39% while Vermont's is 32%/44%/24%? Or do Vermont's liberals, moderates, and conservatives all tend to be more liberal than Wyoming's liberals, moderates, and conservatives tend to be? To formulate an answer, let's... Read More
I'll justify ripping off VDare's recurrent article naming theme by segueing into congratulating the site for getting a much needed aesthetic makeover, and I'll even do so upon discovering that this humble blog has apparently been dropped from VDare's roll as, I hope, an incidental consequence of the revamp. Anyway, I wanted to publish a... Read More
The 2010 GSS data have been released. As Inductivist noted, this is a fun time for quant bloggers. There will be a lot of sifting through special modules for the 2010 battery of questions, but of broader interest are converted IQ averages of voters in the 2008 election. With the post-racial man who putatively put... Read More
Commenting on the post suggesting that exit polling appears to systematically underrepresent Asians as well as whites, Steve Sailer expressed a desire for data on Asians in red states. Because of population size and concentration, Hawaii and California are the only two states for which they are currently available. Consequently, it is difficult to determine... Read More
If my mom has ever voted for a Democrat, it was before I'd become a twinkle in my dad's eye. She's not especially political, but was so disgusted by McCain's "rush back to Washington" that she sold her vote to me (vote 199,314 for Baldwin/Castle). Yet at the Republican caucus last February, she reacted as... Read More
Steve Sailer has repeatedly pointed out that election-time exit polling consistently overstates the Hispanic share of the vote. Just as consistently, this tendency putatively provides evidence of the rapidly increasing importance of courting Hispanic voters. Inevitably, the more thorough and reliable Census phone survey of some 50,000 people released months later downwardly adjusts Hispanic representation... Read More
Steve Sailer has pointed out on multiple occasions that race trumps sex in the contemporary world of identification politics:In the Democratic primaries last year, Hillary Clinton was confronted by the same reality. The insight needs some qualification, though, in that it applies much more strongly to non-whites, especially blacks, than it does to whites.These high... Read More
++Addition++Radio Derb transcripts are accessible here.---Because I am a laggard who relatively recently began to finally equip myself with podcasts wherever I go, instead of relying on radio, I am only this week discovering John Derbyshire's weekly half-hour broadcast entitled "Radio Derb", a middlebrow commentary on the events of the previous seven days with a... Read More
The Pew Research Center recently put out a report entitled "Dissecting the 2008 Electorate: Most Diverse in US History". This translates as the white percentage of total voters being the lowest it ever has been in a Presidential election. Recognizing the slow but steady relative reduction in the size of the white vote is nothing... Read More
++Addition++The Wordsum distributions for Portuguese-Americans and non-Hispanic whites follow respectively. The P-A average is a slightly more than .4 standard deviations below n-H whites, suggesting an average IQ of around 93 or 94. So if those in Hawaii tend toward the lower end of the SES scale, as Jason asserts, 90 seems to fit as... Read More
++Addition++Professor Gelman responds by referencing RS,BS. He does not appear especially inclined to look beyond the graphical representations of his data included in the book, and the data are not publicly available, so I'm still unable to compare the white PMD in '00 and '04 to '08 with any precision.He also makes a point that... Read More
++Addition2++Agnostic calculated the Spearman correlation. Using the 'standard' Pearson correlation (which I default to unless otherwise noted), and median family income for '06-'07, a correlation of .48 between the political money divide and a state's median income. So I was wrong in asserting that Republican states show more of a political money divide than poor... Read More
Last week, the French national anthem was booed at a soccer match against Tunisia in Paris. A recent NPR story is full of predictable lamentations of how France is struggling to assimilate the same immigrants and their offspring who rioted three years ago (and continue to burn cars at a steady pace), given plenty of... Read More
In response to Ramesh Ponnuru's comment that even had McCain maintained Bush's white share of the vote at the state level, he would've come up 28 electoral votes short, I compared the '04 and '08 Presidential elections based on national exit polls, showing that the white vote was flat, while the black and Hispanic votes... Read More
Half Sigma's contention that the GOP is losing the intelligent faction is disconcerting, but the more I look at it, the more inclined I become to put stake in his assertion.GNXP's Razib has created a convenient comparative table of the white vote by state (including DC) in '04 and '08, showing Kerry's and Obama's respective... Read More
++Addition++John Derbyshire finds this worth pointing out on The Corner at NRO. Ramesh Ponnuru suggests little emphasis is given to the fact that even had McCain maintained Bush's share of the white vote, he still would've lost the election. Does that indicate an attempt to appeal to white voters (or at least not to actively... Read More
In Steve Sailer's latest VDare column discussing, among other things, John McCain's self-imposed handicaps and the state of exit polling, he tabulates the percentage shifts from Bush in '04 to McCain in '08 by race:20042008GOP declineVotes lostWhites58%55%-3%2.8 millionBlacks11%4%-7%1.1 millionHispanics40%31%-9%0.9 millionAsians44%35%-9%0.2 millionOthers40%31%-9%0.2 millionI've added an extra column showing what each percentage decline translates to in absolute... Read More
++Addition2++The vote totals continue to grow slowly in some states, presumably due to write-ins and recounts. The table in the first addition has been updated to reflect the most current counts.++Addition++Wikipedia's election page has some errors in voter totals (as reported three days after the election; it may have been subsequently edited yet again by... Read More
Half Sigma sees the cultural populism of 'themes' like Joe the Plumber and the choice of Sarah Palin as VP as bad for the Republican party because it is turning the most intelligent voters against the GOP. He has argued that smarter states are flipping to the Democratic party because of this.The latter assertion appeared... Read More
In refuting a defense of Sarah Palin based on the presumption that educational attainment is relatively rare in Alaska, Half Sigma asserted (with evidence) that Alaska actually fares slightly better than the national average when it comes to the percentage of the population with a bachelor's degree or higher. This spurred the creation of an... Read More
Conservative pundits complain not of, say, the NYT's leftist op/ed board, but that it bleeds into paper's hard news stories. An article by Jonathan Weisman demonstrates the same at the WSJ. He relays Kimberly Strassel's narrative of GOP fortunes on the front page:Strassel made the same argument more than a year ago, and rehashed it... Read More
With McCain's likely impending defeat next week, I suggest the Republican party's national leadership consider the following:- McCain's campaign imposed an omerta on anything that could be even tangentially perceived as bringing Obama's blackness into play. Nineteen months after Steve Sailer made known the Illinois Senator's focus on taking white wealth and giving it to... Read More
Razib reviews Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do at his SB site. It appears the authors delve deeply into what's been pointed out and discussed here: While Republican voters are on average wealthier and (slightly) more educated* than Democratic voters are, blue states are wealthier and... Read More
For those interested in whether Obama's Dreams was ghostwritten, "Tommy" takes a fairly thorough look at one of Obama's self-described favorite books, Moby Dick, as well as the texts of a few of the Senator's biggest speeches, in attempt to ascertain if either share an affinity for the nautical metaphors found in the autobiography: "Murky"... Read More
The market descension and Obama's ascension are clearly linked. The conventional take is that when people see their 401(k)s and IRAs losing one-third of their valuations in a span of two weeks, they become angry and direct that anger at whoever is in the Whitehouse. As Randall Parker has reminded us on several occasions, the... Read More
++Addition++Steve Sailer reminds his readers why an Obama ghostwriter is unlikely: Steve's probably spent more time with Dreams than anyone else has. Jack will need to produce a smoking gun, not just suggestive circumstantial evidence, to definitively make his case. He tells me he's sure he is right, and that he has more coming soon.... Read More