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In a few generations, that is. The Orthodox don't yet comprise one-in-ten American Jews, though they will soon and their representation will continue to increase from there. In many respects, non-Orthodox Jews view the Orthodox like liberal whites view white Trump supporters--as deplorables. Orthodox Jews voted for Trump by a 2-to-1 margin. But while the... Read More
The percentages of GSS respondents, by political orientation and by year of participation, who responded they had "no religion" when asked about their religious affiliation: The religious are more fecund than the irreligious. With eccentric but ultimately marginal exceptions like the Shakers, this has been the case for as long as records have been kept.... Read More
The following graph shows, by political orientation and over time, the ideal number of children GSS participants think a family should have and the actual number of children they do have: There are a lot of intersections on the graph that make it more challenging to follow than it should be. The light colors trace... Read More
The inverse correlation between total fertility rate and per capita CO2 emissions at the national level is a modest but not insignificant .35. I've little insightful to add to that result, a result more modest than I imagined it would be, but since it was a slog to calculate, it may as well be shared.
The inverse relationship between fertility and educational attainment is more pronounced among people of color than among whites and more pronounced among women than among men: When it comes to educational attainment the inverse correlation with fertility is barely detectable among white men, while it is quite pronounced among non-white women. If hypergamy is real,... Read More
The following graphs show the mean number of children by frequency of religious worship service attendance. The survey period covered is from 2000 to 2018 covering adults aged 30 through old age, so TFRs are higher across the board than they are among people in their reproductive primes today: There is nothing to the color... Read More
From the large 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study: Total fertility rates of non-Orthodox Jews are below replacement. TFRs for the Orthodox are hard to pin down, but they are well above replacement, with estimates ranging from anywhere between 3-8 children per woman. By the time Donald Trump's Orthodox Jewish grandchildren are his age, Jews will... Read More
For close to a decade it has been reported that Americans under the age of 18 are "majority-minority", yet non-Hispanic white births continue to constitute a majority of the country's newborns. The reason for the discrepancy is methodological. The CDC tracks race by that of the mother exclusively, so babies who will be categorized in... Read More
From 2000 onward for contemporary relevance, among women aged 40 or older for completed fertility, and restricted to non-Hispanic whites to avoid racial confounding, we have TFRs by educational attainment and religious service attendance: Religiosity is a strong correlate with fertility. Nothing quite trumps the inverse correlation fecundity has with female educational attainment, a robust... Read More
Rosie writes: The GSS routinely asks respondents what the ideal number of children to have is. The survey also asks respondents how many children they actually have. The following graph shows women's responses, by educational attainment, to the ideal number of children for a woman to have and the number of children those women have... Read More
The preliminary birth figures for 2017 are in. The following graph and table show the percentages of births by state that were to non-Hispanic white babies:   State Wht% 1) Vermont 90.8 2) West Virginia 90.7 3) Maine 89.1 4) New Hampshire 86.8 5) Kentucky 80.9 6) Montana 79.4 7) Wyoming 78.6 8) Iowa 78.1... Read More
On The Daily Shoah the big-brained Z-Man brought up an important question white identitarians have to find a satisfactory answer to--are based Jews part of Heritage America or always potential wolves in sheep's clothing? Mike Enoch's dodgy reply was that they are not, they have to go back to Israel, and Israel can suffer the... Read More
++Addition++Heartiste reacts in detail. --- The Derb on how the kids don't rut like they used to: The following graph is sourced from a
The inestimable Sid: How worried are the Chinese about African fertility? The Han don't suffer from the same self-destructive universalistic, egalitarian impulses that Northwestern Europeans (WEIRDOs) do. China's a big country. They'll keep the dumb Africans outside the walls and everything will be fine. Illegal invasion from Africa into China is nearly impossible. The infiltrators... Read More
Using data from the CDC for 2016, Cicerone calculated total fertility rates (TFR) by state and by race for US: Look at the black figures for Maine and Minnesota. Somalis and other Wakandans are doing what Americans won't do--replicate themselves. Utah and North Dakota are above replacement for whites. South Dakota, Idaho, Nebraska, Hawaii, Alaska,... Read More
I recently asked if Mormons are alone among sizable population subgroups in the US in experiencing eugenic fertility patterns. I failed to even evaluate Jews (there go my alt right credentials!). My thought process was the orthodox have lots of kids while secular Jews don't and the former are dullards while the latter have the... Read More
The following graph compares mean number of children, by intelligence as measured by Wordsum*, among whites (n = 13,492), among blacks (n = 3,858), and also among Mormons (n = 342). To avoid language fluency issues, only those born in the US are considered: This is astounding. Are Mormons the only group in the US... Read More
Dan comments: One of the consequences of modern contraception is the historically unprecedented decoupling of fornication and procreation. More of the former no longer means more of the latter. To the contrary, there is an inverse correlation between notch count and fertility (once the number of partners reaches one, of course!), a trend that is... Read More
This isn't breaking news, but it could use a little search engine optimization. Find something concise and easily digestible proved difficult, so here it is. The following table shows, by theistic orientation, the mean number of children non-Hispanic whites, aged at least 40 when the question was asked, have ever had. For contemporary relevance all... Read More
++Disclaimer++The 2015 data assigns a racial/ethnic classification to 99.7% of all recorded births, while the 2016 data only assigns one to 97.0% of all recorded births. I am unsure why the discrepancy is so large between the two years, but it creates the appearance of a larger decline in births by race/ethnicity across the board... Read More
++Disclaimer++The 2015 data assigns a racial/ethnic classification to 99.7% of all recorded births, while the 2016 data only assigns one to 97.0% of all recorded births. I am unsure why the discrepancy is so large between the two years, but it creates the appearance of a larger decline in births by race/ethnicity across the board... Read More
++Disclaimer++The 2015 data assigns a racial/ethnic classification to 99.7% of all recorded births, while the 2016 data only assigns one to 97.0% of all recorded births. I am unsure why the discrepancy is so large between the two years, but it creates the appearance of a larger decline in births by race/ethnicity across the board... Read More
The following graph shows average (mean) number of children by race and intelligence*. For contemporary relevance, all responses are from this millennium. To avoid language fluency issues, only those born in the US are considered. To allow time for family formation to occur, responses from those under the age of 35 are excluded: The dysgenic... Read More
Since 2008 the GSS has explicitly asked respondents about their sexual orientations. About one-in-seven homosexual men (13.8%) report having at least one biological child (among men over thirty years old to allow the chance for procreation to have occurred). Homosexuality is a Darwinian death sentence. About the only thing worse from a reproductive standpoint is... Read More
Feryl: In 2014 the GSS asked respondents how tall they were. Mean height for Jewish and Goy men (n = 15 and 555, respectively): Height Jewish 5'9.5" Goyim 5'10.1" Mean height for liberal, moderate, and conservative men (n = 108, 215, and 111): Height Liberal 5'9.7" Moderate 5'9.5" Conservative 5'11.0" The sample sizes and differences... Read More
Several years ago I looked at fertility among whites by sex and intelligence (as measured by Wordsum scores) and found that to the extent that the trend is dysgenic, it is almost exclusively so among women. Among whites, high IQ men have as many children as low IQ men do. That's not the case for... Read More
The CIA world factbook recently added a field listing of the mean age of women at first birth for several countries. In Chad and Niger, most women are getting pregnant before they turn 18. Sexual relationships that violate laws on statutory rape in the US are commonplace in sub-Saharan Africa, where the age of first... Read More
Heartiste's take on the coming sexbot revolution is probably an accurate auguring of what will come to pass: It's not inconceivable, though, that the development instead turns out to be a saving grace, putting the West's native stock back on the path to replacement fertility. Here's how it might look. Not only is the female... Read More
The reports of white death have been slightly exaggerated! Five years ago the US Census, in an announcement that was joyfully picked up by a host of media outlets, announced that non-Hispanic white (from hereon just "white") births constituted a minority of all births in the US for the first time ever. The claim came... Read More
From the GSS, responses from white survey participants on the ideal number of children for a household to have, by year of participation in the survey: Even as our TFR has been sub-replacement, our collective assessment of what we should be doing hasn't changed. We know replacement should be the floor. Fewer than 1-in-20 white... Read More
With Heartiste's recent post entitled "Childlessness And Mass Female Hysteria" as an impetus, the percentage of childless middle-aged women in the US, by decade (n = 13,549): 1970s: 7.9% 1980s: 13.4% 1990s: 17.6% 2000s: 17.9% 2010s: 18.0% The female labor force participation ratcheted up beginning in the mid-seventies before peaking around 2000 and steadily but... Read More
In the previous post showing the inverse correlation between fertility and pro-abortion views, Jayman asserted the following: It's a reasonable assumption, and there is of course an effect from political orientation that is distinct--in the sense that we understand these things as being distinct, not necessarily distinct in terms of causation for which our understanding... Read More
Feminism is putatively about gender equality, yet granting "reproductive rights" exclusively to women is anything but. That unrestricted access to abortion is the issue that motivates so many mountains to move is more than a little macabre. Biology has a way of sorting things out, though. The women who are so motivated are the least... Read More
The following table shows the mean number of children by religious identification. For contemporary relevance and to allow for family formation to have occurred, data are from 2004 onward and from those aged 35-65 at the time the survey was conducted*:ReligionKidsIslam2.69Catholicism2.28Protestantism2.20Judaism1.76None1.65Buddhism1.44If never born, they'll never suffer!And, using the same time period and age parameters, an... Read More
Evelyn, a behemoth at 10 lbs 4 oz, has arrived! Treading water, which would be enough if we asserted control of our borders. Posting will be light for awhile.
Over the last three decades, US birth rates among women under 25 declined while birth rates among women over 30 increased, dramatically so among women over 40. It's well known that mean maternal age at birth has increased substantially in the West over the last 60 years. What might not be as widely recognized--I previously... Read More
Created using preliminary data on US births in 2014: A few years ago the Census bureau announced that (non-Hispanic) whites no longer comprised a majority of newborns in the US, the implication being that in (less than) five years' time they would no longer constitute a majority of kids under the age of five, in... Read More
Riffing off Steve Sailer's prime example of an instance where a picture is worth a thousand words, in 1950 sub-Saharan Africa's population density was on par with that of contemporary Idaho (8 people per square kilometer). By the turn of the next century, UN population projections predict that Africans will be packed in more tightly... Read More
The percentages of GSS respondents who say that a woman should be allowed to have an abortion for any reason she wants to, broken down by sex and also by the number of children respondents have had. The question is dichotomous, with "yes" and "no" as the only two answers permitted. For contemporary relevance, responses... Read More
... than that a black woman wants contraception to be covered by health insurance providers, with 94% in favor and 6% opposed. Doing a little algebra, it looks like black men supported it about 80%-20%. By a slim margin, even white men were in favor, 53%-47%. The advisory measure passed with broad public support in... Read More
A few months ago, Jayman put up a post entitled Idiocracy Can Wait?. He found what I'd found, and with a lot more evidence marshaled in the affirmative than I had assembled. Namely, past performance does not necessarily predict future results. We reactionary curmudgeons often presume that things are deteriorating. The rot in our popular... Read More
Heartiste does a little shadowboxing in the cognitive stratification ring: As he correctly asserts, it's likely not as dire a situation as many on the dissident right who haven't looked at the relevant data assume. Rather than accentuating the putative dysgenic problem, as he insinuates the GSS does, though, survey data actually attenuate it. The... Read More
An assortment of reactions and responses (calling it a review would be way too pretentious) to Nicholas Wade's A Troublesome Inheritance follow. First, a couple of minor quibbles: - In the context of the eugenics movement in the US in the early 20th century, Wade equates "restrictive immigration laws" (p38) with the actions of state... Read More
Using six centuries of data from England, Gregory Clark shows in A Farewell to Alms that from the years 1200-1800AD, the wealthier a person was, the more descendents he tended to have. This long-running, naturally eugenic trend is often presumed to have come to an end in the West with the onsets of the Industrial... Read More
Dennis Mangan links to a study finding positive relationships between greater reproductive success and higher extraversion, lower conscientiousness, and lower openness to experience, as well as a more attenuated positive correlation with higher agreeableness. The GSS dipped its toe in big five waters back in 2006, asking survey participants ten questions, two per trait (which... Read More
Heartiste, turning his powers of perspicacity on what may be an emerging bifurcation in the sexual culture of these formerly united states, makes one factual error in so doing. Its impact on his broader argument is marginal, but it is worth considering: Fortunately, teen pregnancy has been steadily declining over at least the last couple... Read More
Thanks to Jokah for pointing out this sign of our times: White men (non-Hispanic) are four times as likely as Hispanic men and eight times as likely as black men (non-Hispanic) to undergo male sterilization. I suspect that in very few cases they do so for the same reasons Origen allegedly did, however! White women... Read More
Understanding that pill-based contraceptives increase estrogen levels as a means of essentially tricking a woman's body into thinking she's already pregnant and that studies have shown changes in female mate preferences when on the pill compared to when off of it (relatively more interested in betas when on and in alphas when off), I wonder... Read More
As a prerequisite, please see Heartiste's post on a study positing criminal behavior as an alternative mating strategy that potentially increases evolutionary fitness. It's paygated, so we're just working with the abstract here. Perhaps it is correctly identifying a meaningful phenomenon. Since the magnate threw down the gauntlet, though, there are reasons we might be... Read More
Via Heartiste, recent research on female fertility found the following: I'll check my audacity enough to admit that I'm not certain I understand either, but I'll hazard a seemingly obvious though politically incorrect