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Election 2020

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After a month in office, flip a coin to see if an American is convinced Biden is not a pretender: One-third believe the election was stolen from President Trump and the remaining one-sixth are not sure. The certified vote total has Biden beating Trump by less than 5 points but the YouGov survey respondent pool... Read More
Net favorable (unfavorable) ratings of nine prominent US congressional members, by partisan affiliation: The new GOP women have hastily stepped in to address leftist TDS withdrawals. Republicans haven't instinctively rallied behind them in response yet. I suspect they will, but maybe these ladies will play the Goldstein role the empire so desperately needs someone to... Read More
From Pew Research comes an interesting survey on who the perceived demographic winners and losers will be under the Biden/Harris administration. Among Republicans: Republicans are being red-pilled. Four-in-five Republican voters are white, and they understand that the influence awarded to non-Asian minorities will come at their expense. Especially encouraging are the dual perceptions that the... Read More
The sample was drawn from the San Diego metropolitan area so sentiments by partisan affiliation skew a little further to the left than they would in flyover country, but the pattern must be broadly in line with that of the country as a whole:
One of the worst boomercon takes during the runup to the 2020 presidential election was that Joe Biden was the antifa and BLM candidate. It may have been an electorally useful tactic--though not useful enough--but in terms of truth value, there isn't much. To assume they have a candidate is to fundamentally misunderstand what those... Read More
The graphic from the previous post updated to include three more Republican senators and a Democrat with a stellar political future in front of her: While Mitch McConnell doesn't get much love from anyone, at least he directionally aligns with the voter sentiments of the party he allegedly represents. Republicans scarcely like Romney more than... Read More
McConnell wants the GOP to dump Trump but the voters would prefer to ditch Mitch: It's hard not to sympathize with the independents' bipartisan negative assessments across the board. Julian Assange continues to rot in inhumane captivity and Edward Snowden remains exiled in a land admittedly less oppressive to the human spirit than our own.... Read More
The establishment hates that there is no organic interest in the conspiracy theories they approve of and enormous interest in the conspiracy theories they disapprove of: These are the same people who lied to us over and over and over again about WMDs in Iraq. They have the blood of hundreds of thousands and the... Read More
Other companies will stop spreading money around to politicians of either party: It's hard to have any hope for the Republican party, but if any can be had it is this. Despite the Democrat party having vastly outraised the GOP in corporate donations since 2004, the hapless GOP continues to allow itself to be portrayed... Read More
TomSchmidt suggests a spot check for circumstantial evidence of Dominion Voting Systems chicanery in New York: Both counties broke Democrat in 2016 and 2020. In 2016, Clinton won Westchester by 33.7 points; in 2020, Biden won by 36.3 points. Democrats improved 2.6 points there from 2016 to 2020. In 2016, Clinton won Nassau by 6.2... Read More
This sloppiness creates a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach: These two results obviously cannot simultaneously be accurate, yet they are being reported in the same exit poll with an identical sample. Salt in hand, we soldier on. Interestingly, Republicans express more confidence in the integrity of the vote count than Democrats do:... Read More
Trump's best looooong shot chance to win his reelection bout in a controversial TKO decision is for the Georgia Republicans to lose tonight. That aligns the GOPe's interests with his own. If they really do want the Senate but Loeffler and Perdue lose tonight, they can still get the upper chamber through a Biden defenestration... Read More
Support for QAnon by selected demographics: It is a boogey man on the left. While only 7% of Democrats have not ever heard of QAnon, 29% of Republicans are unaware of it. QAnon is the MAGA movement's Prester John. The red hat crusaders' last stand is less than a week away. If he doesn't come... Read More
What were the three biggest red pills of the year? The top three from our vantage point: - The corporate media permitting Joe Biden to use a teleprompter for interviews. The most common reaction to these revelations was, well, yuk yuk, there's even more evidence Biden is a senescent, doddering old codger! What they actually... Read More
Sensing the assertion that Trump underperformed Republicans down ticket was overstated at best, we looked at nationwide House votes and compared them to nationwide presidential votes for 2020. In two-way races, congressional Republicans did 0.7 points better than Trump did. And the Senate, Jamie asked: The assertion goes from overstated to non-existent. Putting votes earned... Read More
Trump did only marginally worse than Republican House members did. In two-way races, Biden beat Trump 52.3%-47.7% while congressional Democrats beat congressional Republicans 51.6%-48.4%. The Republican House outperformed Trump by 0.7 points. So while it is officially technically true that the party outperformed the president, it's hard to read much into its significance. For those... Read More
At the time of his first inaugural, president Obama had a net approval rating of +54. That is unthinkable today. When president Trump was sworn in, by contrast, his net approval rating was -2. We may have entered a stage in our terminal national decline where no president will ever enjoy positive net favorability for... Read More
At least in the state of Georgia: The sample sizes for Hispanics and Asians are small but the general philosophical preference for simple measures to protect election integrity is clear. Despite Democrat pols and their allies screaming bloody murder about voter ID requirements, a slight majority of their actual voters--and most of the independents they... Read More
Relevant res allows me to beat a dead democracy: In a SurveyUSA poll released yesterday, Perdue and Loeffler are reported to be losing their respective Senate runoff races by 5 and 7 points. There is an obvious problem, though. Some 44% of the sample reported voted for Donald Trump last month while 48% voted for... Read More
During the crisis of the third decade, every political event is centrifugal: The 330 million people living within the borders of the American empire are aware of it. The following graph shows net optimism (pessimism) that "Americans of different political views can still come together and work out their differences": Democrats are enjoying a small,... Read More
In response to the data showing much stronger support for Trump than for the Republican party among Trump voters, AP makes an eminently reasonable assertion: But the trend holds among self-described Republicans as well, albeit not so starkly: Even among Republicans, Trump trumps the Republican party, and Trump's tent is larger than the GOP's is.... Read More
Favorability distributions of Donald Trump and of the Republican party among the over 74 million people who voted for Trump: While 73% of the 74 million people who voted for Trump have a "very favorable" opinion of him, only 32% of those people have a "very favorable" of the Republican party. One-in-five Trump voters have... Read More
I have a feeling support for the political dissolution we've long pushed for just became a lot more popular. It's obviously not scientific but no TradCon influencer would've been caught dead entertaining the idea of separation a year ago: The Supreme Court rejected Texas' straightforward suit against four states that chose their electors by means... Read More
More than a month after the election was held and just days before the results are set to be certified, 4-in-5 Republicans and nearly 9-in-10 Trump voters think fraud flipped the election to Joe Biden: The corporate media's initial position that no evidence of voter fraud existed has been abandoned by most Americans: The incredible... Read More
He will graciously inform us if my memory fails me, but I believe Blinky Bill nearly perfectly predicted the 2020 electoral college map. His only miss was Georgia, the state set to have the narrowest margin of victory in the country. Unfortunately, the image link he provided in the comments section of the election prediction... Read More
The following map and table show the degree to which Trump and Biden outperformed the RCP polling averages at the state level: State Trump (Biden) over West Virginia 21.8 Wyoming 15.7 New York 14.3 South Dakota 13.2 Kentucky 10.4 Oklahoma 9.6 Tennessee 9.3 Missouri 8.6 Utah 8.0
Washington, Oregon, and Colorado conducted all mail voting in 2016 and in 2020. Absolute vote totals at the time of this posting were up by state as follows between 2016 and 2020: Washington -- 22.5% Oregon -- 18.5% Colorado -- 17.1% The combined increase across that three-state bloc was 19.7%. The national vote total increased... Read More
Respectfully disagree. As long as the dollar doesn't break, the system is sustainable. There has been a consolidation of power by the neo-liberal corporate wing of the Democrat party over the last four years. This is a reality that goes widely unnoticed and unremarked upon, but it is undeniable. Bernie Sanders got 45% of the... Read More
Google Trends search interest three weeks after the 2016 presidential election Donald Trump won: As lame duck, Barack Obama generated a small fraction of the interest the incoming president did. Trump's opponent couldn't hold a candle to him, either. Three weeks after the 2020 presidential election he appears to have lost, then, we would expect... Read More
It is difficult to describe a situation in which four-in-ten people view the electoral process as fraudulent in any other way: A common assertion among dissidents is that we're not voting our way out of this. That dissident perspective is one of the things that make a dissident just that, a dissident. Most people do... Read More
If House votes determined which presidential candidate won each state, the Electoral College map would've looked like this: North Carolina is only blue on account of its 12th district. Incumbent Alma Adams ran unopposed, but if a Republican sacrificial lamb had received even half the paltry vote the 2018 challenger did, North Carolina would be... Read More
Republicans overwhelmingly want Donald Trump to continue to fight the perceived vote fraud in an election they view as crooked: From these graphs we can deduce that something like 10% of Republicans and independents doubt the election was on the up-and-up but want Trump to concede anyway. "For the good of the country", it is... Read More
Single women were ridin' with Biden by a nearly 2-to-1 margin: The gap in net support between married women and unmarried women was a staggering 31 points. The difference between married and unmarried men was 20 points. Across both sexes, the marriage gap in net support was 28 points. The gender gap was a more... Read More
How people voted by the issue they identified as the most important one facing the country. Note the percentages of all voters identifying an issue as most important on the horizontal axis; Covid was top of mind for many: The president may have physically beaten the virus, but it pummeled him politically. The polarization in... Read More
Over sixty million voters think the presidential election turned on voter fraud: That's the more sensationalist reading of the results, anyway. Presumably, "influenced the outcome" should necessarily be interpreted as "changed the outcome", else the "influence" is immaterial. But it is conceivable some of these voters think fraud tipped one state or kept another state... Read More
Net support for the Black Lives Matter movement among voters from the national exit poll: Is the position of blacks as first among equals in the POC ascendancy turning Hispanics away? Even among Hispanics who voted for Biden, an astonishingly high percentage reported having an unfavorable view of BLM: That is not the artifact of... Read More
The generational gap is a red herring, at least politically. It's largely an artifact of racial differences by age cohort in the US: Younger generations are less white than older generations. That's why younger generations vote left and older generations vote right. White millennials vote like their grandparents do. Not like their grandparents did when... Read More
In Wisconsin, the Democrat party successfully kept the Green Party off the 2020 ballot on a technical filing infraction. As of this writing, Biden has a 20,000 vote lead over Trump in the state. In 2016, the Green Party's Jill Stein received over 30,000 votes. But the Green's candidate this year, Howie Hawkins, drastically underperformed... Read More
The Bidens' alleged corruption, Trump's indefatigable last week barnstorming across the country, and a potential reason for the polls tightening modestly as the election approached:
The claim that Biden's edge in 2020 relative to Clinton's in 2016 is larger in the major urban centers of the five potential flip states than in other urban areas in the rest of the country is dubious. Here they are, bolded, comparatively included in a list of geographically and politically dispersed urban counties in... Read More
How fortuitous, less than a week after the presidential election Pfizer publicly announces what Trump had promised and been mocked for over the last several weeks. They must have received some extraordinarily results in the testing process of the last few days. No way the $200b+ market cap company had an inkling this was coming... Read More
It wouldn't be a return to normalcy without a reassertion of the neo-liberal establishment's neo-connery: The presumption is a China-friendly/compromised Biden administration wouldn't contest a Chinese conquest--or reunification, opinions differ--of Taiwan. Maybe not. Then again, maybe so. Time isn't on the American empire's side. If it's not there, it'll be somewhere. One thing certain to... Read More
I do not think it means what you think it means: It's almost as if putting all your focus into doing well by the people who didn't elect you while neglecting those who did isn't the most effective reelection strategy in the world.
The war machine is revving up. A Biden administration promises a return to the military adventurism of the Clinton/Bush/Obama era, all presidents--including both Bushes--who got the US involved in new wars. Trump broke that streak, but as the Establishment is so fond of telling us, he was an embarrassing aberration. Soon it will be back... Read More
Libertarians and Greens did relatively well with them as well: Why? Not because the blog's raison d'etre is assessing the validity or invalidity of stereotypes, but because they're people, too, and they don't otherwise get any attention in our heteronormative cisgenderarchy.
Trump treaded water with Protestants, modestly bled Catholic support, gained a lot of ground with Jews and Mormons, and lost ground among the growing number of religiously unaffiliated Americans, who increased from 15% of the electorate in 2016 to 21% of the electorate in 2020: The Mormon increase is due to CIA spook Evan McMullin... Read More
Why didn't the Edison Research national exit poll ask about religious affiliation this election cycle? It did so in 2016. This time, it only asked about "white evangelical or white born-again Christian" support, something that was also included in 2016 alongside a general breakdown by religion. As was the case with whites in general, Trump's... Read More
- There is no reason for Donald Trump to concede. The next presidential swearing in is over two months away. They've spent the better part of four years contesting the 2016 election on flimsier evidence than what has materialized over the last few days. We can spend four weeks ensuring election integrity. - Another indication... Read More
Nothing particularly shocking, though taken on the whole they are a bit of a Narrative buster. A majority of Biden voters are white and a not insignificant one-in-five Trump voters are non-white. Trump's support is split evenly among men and women. LGBT representation in Biden's coalition is only twice what it is in Trump's. Consequently,... Read More
Please provide links to videos, stories, and data on instances of American democracy dying in darkness in 2020 in the comments. We'd like to curate as exhaustive a post on *ahem* irregularities as possible in a forthcoming release. This is a non-partisan request. Post them irrespective of which candidate or party they appear to benefit.... Read More