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Election 2016

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The sample was drawn from the San Diego metropolitan area so sentiments by partisan affiliation skew a little further to the left than they would in flyover country, but the pattern must be broadly in line with that of the country as a whole:
Washington, Oregon, and Colorado conducted all mail voting in 2016 and in 2020. Absolute vote totals at the time of this posting were up by state as follows between 2016 and 2020: Washington -- 22.5% Oregon -- 18.5% Colorado -- 17.1% The combined increase across that three-state bloc was 19.7%. The national vote total increased... Read More
Google Trends search interest three weeks after the 2016 presidential election Donald Trump won: As lame duck, Barack Obama generated a small fraction of the interest the incoming president did. Trump's opponent couldn't hold a candle to him, either. Three weeks after the 2020 presidential election he appears to have lost, then, we would expect... Read More
The claim that Biden's edge in 2020 relative to Clinton's in 2016 is larger in the major urban centers of the five potential flip states than in other urban areas in the rest of the country is dubious. Here they are, bolded, comparatively included in a list of geographically and politically dispersed urban counties in... Read More
Though the corporate media won't have Donald Trump to kick around much longer, he's still giving them black eyes on the way out. After five years of portraying him as a misogynistic racist relentlessly implementing white supremacy to benefit white men at the expense of everyone else, Trump improved his electoral performance among women of... Read More
State polling averages paint an abysmal picture of president Trump's reelection prospects: The counter to this are the 2016 state polling averages. They predicted a Clinton win, albeit by a much narrower margin: In 2016, RCP missed Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump was favored to win Nevada but lost it, while Clinton was favored... Read More
Using the The Cook Political Report's nifty Swingometer, 2020 Electoral College results if only whites without college degrees voted: To those lacking both melanin and credentials, a reminder you didn't need that the establishment really, really hates you: In 2016, college-educated whites narrowly favored Trump over Clinton, 48%-45%, but polling suggests Biden will be able... Read More
The following graph shows the change in Donald Trump's advantage or disadvantage against his Democrat opponent by various demographics from 2016 to 2020. In 2016, Hillary Clinton had a one-point edge among those aged 45-64. In 2020, Trump has a one-point lead over Joe Biden among that age group. The change is thus represented in... Read More
Despite every aspect of the nationwide psyop falling apart over the course of the last four years, the collusion hoax was still largely successful. Four-in-five Americans with an opinion think the Russians have their heavy thumbs positioned to press hard on the electoral scales in November: A couple of things potentially check that dim view... Read More
A minimum of 35% and a maximum of 65% of Democrats say the GOP-controlled Senate should've considered Merrick Garland in 2016 but that the GOP-controlled Senate should not consider Amy Coney Barrett now. A minimum of 17% and a maximum of 40% of Republicans say the Senate was correct in not considering Obama's nominee but... Read More
From the large 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study: Cubans and Filipinos, among Hispanics and Asians respectively, are generally considered to be the most assimilated into the American way of life and so they, like white Americans, exhibit a great deal of political diversity among their ranks. Koreans and Filipinos are considerably more likely to be... Read More
From the large 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study: Total fertility rates of non-Orthodox Jews are below replacement. TFRs for the Orthodox are hard to pin down, but they are well above replacement, with estimates ranging from anywhere between 3-8 children per woman. By the time Donald Trump's Orthodox Jewish grandchildren are his age, Jews will... Read More
The racial distribution of those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 but for a Democrat congressperson in 2018: Those who presumably experienced voter's remorse are whiter than the electorate as a whole is. That is not the case for those who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 but for a Republican congressperson in 2018:... Read More
The simplest explanation for why a gentle blue wave washed over the country in the 2018 mid-terms is because over twice as many people who supported Donald Trump in 2016 voted Democrat in 2018 (8.3% of Trump voters switched) as people who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 voted Republican in 2018 (3.4% of Clinton voters... Read More
From the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study we see that outside the progressive wing of the Democrat party, there is little desire to defund the police: Body cameras are even more popular on the left than on the right. Whether or not this holds remains to be seen. Rhetorically, it'll be tough for the left... Read More
Using the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we create a white privilege reality index using responses to a question from the racism module about whether or not white people enjoy inherent advantages in American society. Index values are computed by (2*%strongly agree)+(%somewhat agree)-(%somewhat disagree)-(2*%strongly disagree): Think the Democrat indices were off the charts way back... Read More
From the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, positions of primary voters on five immigration issues: Note that primary supporters of "Another Democrat" (whatever became of Jim Webb?) were more hawkish on every question than John Kasich's primary voters. Several of those endangered Blue Dogs crossed over to Trump's GOP. The Ohio governor has a speaking... Read More
In an election year, everything is political, including methods of voting. The question of whether a person plans to go to the ballot box or drop an envelope into the mailbox has partisan contours: Republicans assume vote by mail will permit the leftist power structure to fabricate Democrat votes. The Secretary of State or equivalent... Read More
State-level polling doesn't bode well for president Trump's reelection chances, at least as of May 19, 2020: But how did Donald Trump's election chances look at the same point in time during the 2016 campaign? Only modestly better: On the eve of election night, polling prognostications appeared much better for him than they had six... Read More
RCP state polling averages as of May 19, 2020: state favorites as of May 19, 2020: Polling shows Biden winning Ohio and Florida. Bettors think Trump will hold onto both of them. The states both polling and greenskin in the game see flipping from 2016 to 2020 are Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The... Read More
Bernie Sanders, former track athlete, could not quite clear his low bar. On the eve of Super Tuesday we wrote: Unlikely indeed. Elizabeth Warren is allegedly in talks with Sanders about how to combine their progressive energies to take on the establishment's centrism. Sounds like a face-saving ploy to me. With Bloomberg out, Warren staying... Read More
is a lot lower than the blue state rate. From The Council for Community and Economic Research: The following table ranks states, colored in accordance with their 2016 US presidential vote, in ascending order by their cost of living indices: COL index 1) Mississippi 2) Oklahoma 3) Arkansas 4) Missouri 5) Michigan 6) Alabama 7)... Read More
The following graphs compare the last YouGov poll taken on the eve of the 2016 election with the most recent YouGov poll in mid-January of 2020 by race. One major distinction, of course, is that the 2020 Democrat candidate has yet to be determined. We are thus making a Clintons-to-Generics comparison. From a Trumpian perspective,... Read More
Last week, YouGov included a couple of interesting but clumsy questions about jobs and trade. The organization has released a new poll this week with a much cleaner question that cuts to the chase. It asks respondents if "free trade is good or bad" for the US. The following graph shows, for selected demographics, the... Read More
Comments on the 2020 presidential electoral maps as they would appear if election day results were in line with the latest RCP polling averages included several along these lines: The corporate media pegged Clinton's chance of victory at some place well north of 90%. Nate Silver--who had been wrong about Trump again and again and... Read More
Ben Shapiro, smiter of strawmen: Shapiro asserts that race and ethnicity have no bearing on how people vote. He allows that culture does, though, because culture "is about how people think". Neat if true. But people who think the same way, sharing conservative positions on various things, vote in radically different ways--depending on their race... Read More
First the percentages of Americans who believe Russia interfered in the 2016 US presidential election and then the percentages of Americans who think the US has ever interfered with an election in any other country (!). Belief in Soviet sabotage: Belief in American interference:
Rumors of campaign Biden's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Okay, maybe just slightly exaggerated. But he hasn't lost any support over the last several months, let alone the last couple weeks. Here is his Democrat primary support over the last 77 polls, extending back to mid-June, the same time in the 2020 cycle that Trump... Read More
The GSS surveyed 95 people who voted for Obama in 2012 and for Trump in 2016. The sample is obviously suboptimally small. Still, the demographic characteristics of this contingent of people whose modest size will have a disproportionately large impact on the annals of The Decline and Fall of the American Empire that the Sinitic... Read More
The 2018 iteration of the GSS is out, which means Wordsum scores by candidate vote are out, too. Mean IQ for Trump and Clinton voters as converted from Wordsum results assuming a white mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15 (N = 822): Trump voters -- 100.1 Clinton voters -- 99.7 Read a... Read More
Nobody wanted--needed!--it to be true more than white liberals did: A few of the most zealous believers will cling to the attendant statement that while two years, a bazillion dollars, and a gazillion investigatory man-hours couldn't turn up a shred of evidence of collusion between Trump and Russia, the orange man hasn't been formally exonerated... Read More
After it was all said and done, the partisan swapping of working-class whites for college-educated whites was the only remarkable electoral demographic realignment revealed in the 2016 presidential election. A couple of years into Trump's first term, another realignment appears to be occurring, and it is occurring among all non-Hispanics. That seminal realignment is occurring... Read More
Reuters-Ipsos has a poll tracking partisan affiliation that has been running since the beginning of 2016. It now has a total sample standing at 457,215 responses. The explorer allows for all kinds of filters to be applied, including state of residency, educational attainment, race, and 2016 presidential vote. So here are the results with those... Read More
Reuters-Ipsos has a poll tracking partisan affiliation that has been running since the beginning of 2016. It now has a total sample standing at 457,215 responses. The explorer allows for all kinds of filters to be applied, including state of residency, educational attainment, race, and 2016 presidential vote. So here are the results with those... Read More
In response to the observation that self-identified political ideology is relatively unimportant in explaining black electoral behavior, tcjfs pointed to a paper suggesting that most blacks don't know what the labels "liberal" or "conservative" mean in an American political context. As a consequence, the political identity blacks assign themselves is random. They are reliably partisan,... Read More
A theme visisted and revisited here is that political ideology matters a lot to whites, a middling amount to non-black non-whites, and very little to blacks. The 2016 US presidential election iteration: While Trump was the least ideological Republican candidate since Nixon or maybe even Eisenhower, the ideological divide was virtually identical to the more... Read More
Looking through past polling on Calexit over the last couple of years led to a poll from SurveyUSA with some interesting results. The range of questions the organization puts forward is laudable, though the sample sizes are small. Reuters-Ipsos' huge samples have spoiled me. In this particular survey, questions focus less on perceptions of Trump... Read More
Shocking. Unconscionable. Despicable. Retrograde. Embarrassing. Hidebound. Anachronistic. Bigoted. Troubling. Problematic. These are just a few words that spring to mind upon discovering the gross overrepresentation of white men among Democrat leadership. The first graph shows the distribution of the Democrat electorate in the 2016 presidential election among white men and among minorities*: The second graph... Read More
Agnostic: Perspicacity or delusion? The latter, I'll argue. Agnostic again: How long will restrictionists have to wait for Democrats to make even the most non-committal, mild gesture in the direction of immigration restriction? Rhetorical, of course. The only plausible answer is "indefinitely". There's no talk of it whatsoever among any Democrats, anywhere. The Bernie Sanders... Read More
Gillespie is a longtime murk dweller who was part of Dubya's presidency and of Romney's failed 2012 candidacy. He's been in the lobbying 'business' for decades. As physiognomy confirms, he's the epitome of cuckservative boomer nationalism. The only reason to pull for him was because, during the gubernatorial campaign, he feigned to care about the... Read More
Looking at the Voting and Registration Supplement to the Census current population survey for the 2016 election, I expected to find that part of the low turnout rates among Asians and Hispanics relative to whites and blacks could be accounted for by differing age profiles. Older people vote more than younger ones do, and the... Read More
Steve Sailer has been pointing out since at least the 2004 presidential election that the marriage gap is a bigger deal than the much more media salient gender gap. The GSS reveals that Steve's perspicacity has been descriptive extending much farther back than that, since at least 1968. Parenthetically, this is often the case with... Read More
In the previous post it was noted that according to exit polling data the entire increase in Hispanic turnout in the 2016 election compared to the 2012 election was accounted for--and then some--by an increase in California's Hispanic turnout. Pithom doesn't buy it: I didn't make it clear enough that I'm skeptical of the veracity... Read More
With the caveats about the reliability and precision of exit polling data kept in mind, consider that Hispanics went from 10% to 11% of the national electorate between 2012 and 2016, an increase of about 10%. In California, Hispanics went from 22% to 31% between 2012 and 2016, an increase of about 40%. Some 30%... Read More
Trebek: For $1000, blacks, liberals, and Democrats were more likely to vote for Donald Trump and less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton than this group of people. Trebek: Yes, Pepe? Pepe: Who are residents of Washington DC? Trebek: That is correct.
When Ted Cruz melted down in the face of impending disaster for his campaign in Indiana, I thought it would render a future run exceedingly difficult for him if Trump ended up joining the Republican party pantheon alongside Reagan and Lincoln. If referring to oneself as a "Trump Republican" became comparable to what "Reagan conservative"... Read More
The electoral emphasis given to Hispanics and to a lesser extent Asians is exaggerated because voter participation rates among members of these groups are lower than they are for whites and for blacks. That's not the only reason their putative importance is exaggerated, though. It is also exaggerated because the swing states are whiter and... Read More
Gavin Bledsoe via Twitter: Sigh. Here we go again. Results from tonight (with 99% of votes in), first among college graduates: And then among those earning at least six-figures: And from Reuters-Ipsos' most recent national daily tracking poll among Republican college graduates earning at least $100,000 per year: