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Donald Trump

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There is no way for the GOPe to rig the primaries hard enough to overcome pro-Trump sentiment among Republican--and many independent--voters. There is no electoral support for the Cheney charnel house or the Lincoln Project perverts. No matter how hard the corporate media tries to manufacture it, they can't even get through the fabrication stage:... Read More
The following graph shows net support for former president Donald Trump being allowed back on to Facebook by the social media platform: If you come in search of optimism, find a flicker of hope in the results by age cohort. Zoomers are by this measure the generation most opposed to the corpotocracy silencing the citizenry.... Read More
There is no battle for the hearts and minds of the GOP electorate being waged. Trumpism has won decidedly. The idea that there is a McConnell/Romney/Cheney wing on one side and a Cruz/Hawley/Greene wing on the other among voters is fake news. The merchants of mendacity are lying when they frame it this way. The... Read More
TomSchmidt suggests a spot check for circumstantial evidence of Dominion Voting Systems chicanery in New York: Both counties broke Democrat in 2016 and 2020. In 2016, Clinton won Westchester by 33.7 points; in 2020, Biden won by 36.3 points. Democrats improved 2.6 points there from 2016 to 2020. In 2016, Clinton won Nassau by 6.2... Read More
Support for QAnon by selected demographics: It is a boogey man on the left. While only 7% of Democrats have not ever heard of QAnon, 29% of Republicans are unaware of it. QAnon is the MAGA movement's Prester John. The red hat crusaders' last stand is less than a week away. If he doesn't come... Read More
The results from the annual Gallup survey of the top 10 men and women Americans admire most tracks fairly closely to the demographics of the country itself. Blacks are overrepresented, Hispanics underrepresented, whites and Asians proportionally so. If we count Pope Francis as white, which we probably should since he is a second-generation Italian immigrant... Read More
Sensing the assertion that Trump underperformed Republicans down ticket was overstated at best, we looked at nationwide House votes and compared them to nationwide presidential votes for 2020. In two-way races, congressional Republicans did 0.7 points better than Trump did. And the Senate, Jamie asked: The assertion goes from overstated to non-existent. Putting votes earned... Read More
Favorability distributions of Donald Trump and of the Republican party among the over 74 million people who voted for Trump: While 73% of the 74 million people who voted for Trump have a "very favorable" opinion of him, only 32% of those people have a "very favorable" of the Republican party. One-in-five Trump voters have... Read More
More than a month after the election was held and just days before the results are set to be certified, 4-in-5 Republicans and nearly 9-in-10 Trump voters think fraud flipped the election to Joe Biden: The corporate media's initial position that no evidence of voter fraud existed has been abandoned by most Americans: The incredible... Read More
Google Trends search interest three weeks after the 2016 presidential election Donald Trump won: As lame duck, Barack Obama generated a small fraction of the interest the incoming president did. Trump's opponent couldn't hold a candle to him, either. Three weeks after the 2020 presidential election he appears to have lost, then, we would expect... Read More
If House votes determined which presidential candidate won each state, the Electoral College map would've looked like this: North Carolina is only blue on account of its 12th district. Incumbent Alma Adams ran unopposed, but if a Republican sacrificial lamb had received even half the paltry vote the 2018 challenger did, North Carolina would be... Read More
Per a request from our Uralic correspondent, a distribution of sentiment towards Trump's approach to Russia, to China, and to North Korea from the perspective of his voters: Unsurprisingly, the Goldilocks assessment is most common in all three cases. Even with the relentless lying about Trump's alleged cozy relationship with Russia, his voters are 7x... Read More
The 21st century American oligarchy hates the class traitor Donald Trump for the same reason the 2nd century BC Roman oligarchy hated the Gracchi brothers: Separated by millennia, the oligarchy has a similar response: Apropos Steven Pinker, their methods have become less brutal, but the energy is the same:
Though the corporate media won't have Donald Trump to kick around much longer, he's still giving them black eyes on the way out. After five years of portraying him as a misogynistic racist relentlessly implementing white supremacy to benefit white men at the expense of everyone else, Trump improved his electoral performance among women of... Read More
The corporate media is in collusion with the Biden campaign--it's hard to describe Biden reading from a teleprompter during media interviews any other way--so it's safe to assume the former vice president had the questions ahead of time. Biden delivered his rehearsed answers satisfactorily to a general audience and extremely well to people who think... Read More
Though the betting markets suspect it will be Joe Biden: The people expect it to be Donald Trump: This result comes from a sample supporting Biden by 9 points over Trump. Not only is Trump's party more certain of his impending triumph than Biden's party is of his, independents find a Trump victory more probable... Read More
Trump is the war weary end of an increasingly war weary Republican electorate; Biden is the war waging end of an increasingly war mongering party: With propitious prospects for Biden in November, the late John McCain is smiling as he gazes upward. He may be gone, but the warfare state he championed indefatigably lives on... Read More
Democrats are destined to dominate the mail in vote: Many of those ballots will not have been received and processed by election night. When the time comes to start calling states, will the corporate media extrapolate the results of the yet-to-be-received votes based on the mail in ballots that have been counted up to that... Read More
The following graphs show the perceived sentiments of Joe Biden and Donald Trump towards various major demographic groupings by partisan affiliation of those doing the perceiving: A few noteworthy things: - That Democrats perceive evil orange man as caring about whites, men, and the wealthy does not reflect positively on Trump, it reflects poorly on... Read More
Sleepy Joe is soporific. It's directionally good but weak, the phoning it in nickname. Creepy Joe sounds nefarious. There is something attractive about a highly successful super villain. And it's been a meme for years. People are already aware. Honing in on the cognitive decline saliently manifesting itself every time Biden speaks publicly is an... Read More
White progressives like pointing out that by nominating Biden over Sanders, the party has ensured no one is going to vote for the Democrat presidential nominee. Instead, they'll vote against Trump. Well, that ignorance is spoken from a place of privilege. It otherizes the lived experience of black bodies that have been eager to support... Read More
Revisiting a post from late in 2018: This was before the coronavirus catastrophe knocked the economy on its ass and 40 million people--disproportionately younger people--out of work, and knocked many more out of school. With vanishingly few arrests made and most of the arrestees given a slap on the wrist citation if charged with anything... Read More
State-level polling doesn't bode well for president Trump's reelection chances, at least as of May 19, 2020: But how did Donald Trump's election chances look at the same point in time during the 2016 campaign? Only modestly better: On the eve of election night, polling prognostications appeared much better for him than they had six... Read More
RCP state polling averages as of May 19, 2020: state favorites as of May 19, 2020: Polling shows Biden winning Ohio and Florida. Bettors think Trump will hold onto both of them. The states both polling and greenskin in the game see flipping from 2016 to 2020 are Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The... Read More
What other than Who? Whomism? could explain why 54% of Democrats say if allegations of sexual assault against Donald Trump are proven, they disqualify him from the presidency while just 30% of Democrats say the same regarding Joe Biden? A subconscious conversion of "if allegations against X are proven true" to "do you think the... Read More
The following graph shows the percentages of people, by selected demographic characteristics, who say if the sexual assault allegations against Joe Biden and/or Donald Trump are proven true, the guilt of each "disqualifies him from the presidency": Inconsistency in verdicts in consequences are almost exclusively partisan in nature. To make these distinctions clearer, the next... Read More
From Civiqs, perspectives on American race relations over time during Donald Trump's presidency: Charlottesville set American race relations back... three months? As the severity and prolonged nature of the econoclysm sinks in, the trend towards greater racial comity will reverse. Until last month, the US economy had ostensibly been good and getting better throughout Trump's... Read More
A YouGov survey released this week contains a battery of questions concerning which presidential candidate is perceived to be "better for" members of several different groups. The results among self-identified Republicans: When Republicans carry on about the good things they've allegedly done for people who will never vote for them (blacks), it's more than just... Read More
The percentages who approve and disapprove of "the travel ban between the U.S. and Europe", with residuals representing "not sure" responses: Maybe not better dead than 'racist' after all. On the other hand, the ban applies to Europe, so even though they're more cultured etc than we are, they're still white and therefore okay to... Read More
Donald Trump sensed the system was on the brink of collapse in 2015 and single-handedly beat both sides of the Establishment by pointing it out again and again. When the Establishment realized it couldn't stop him, it set about co-opting him. Things he criticized during the campaign became things he championed in office. The "big,... Read More
If there is one person dissidents on the left and the right alike should celebrate, it's Hillary Clinton. She is the reason Donald Trump was able to win the presidency and the reason Bernie Sanders was able to get within sniffing distance of becoming the Democrat party's standard bearer. So bad a candidate is she... Read More
COTW is originally from SSC but made it's way here via Anatoly Karlin, the silver standard in journalism on human intelligence. Scott Alexander wrote this in the Fall of 2016: One more warning for conservatives who still aren’t convinced. If the next generation is radicalized by Trump being a bad president, they’re not just going... Read More
Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria were costly blunders. They cost America lots of men, money, and prestige. A war with Iran could cost the US more of all of these things than the other elective regime change wars did. Iran has many more people and is much larger than the other theaters are: The US won't... Read More
Most Americans report being better off now than they were four years ago. The following graph shows the percentages of people who rate their lives as better today than four years ago subtracted by the percentages who rate their lives as worse today than four years ago. "Not sure" responses are not shown: Pluralities of... Read More
The impeachment charade isn't working: Having followed general election polling involving Donald Trump for the better part of five years now, I don't think we've ever seen a result that looks this good for him.
Rumors of campaign Biden's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Okay, maybe just slightly exaggerated. But he hasn't lost any support over the last several months, let alone the last couple weeks. Here is his Democrat primary support over the last 77 polls, extending back to mid-June, the same time in the 2020 cycle that Trump... Read More
Put them on a screen for the whole world to glean, lighting up the night sky: The first of these accounts is a bot, the other is some retired guy with a couple hundred followers. The president clearly didn't even give over a few seconds to vetting these accounts (or any of several others on... Read More
Remember when having misgivings about the results of an American election was the mark of a dangerous lunatic? From a recent YouGov survey, the percentages of respondents who have only a little or no confidence at all in the legitimacy of the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election, with respondents who were either "not... Read More
YouGov released the results of in-depth opinion polling a few days ago. It contains quite a few items of interest, so what follows is a brief discussion of them. - Hispanics express the most satisfaction with the direction the US is going. Net positive direction scores--computed by taking the percentages who say the US is... Read More
The GSS surveyed 95 people who voted for Obama in 2012 and for Trump in 2016. The sample is obviously suboptimally small. Still, the demographic characteristics of this contingent of people whose modest size will have a disproportionately large impact on the annals of The Decline and Fall of the American Empire that the Sinitic... Read More
Remittances from the United States to Mexico totaled nearly $32 billion last year. Exporting social problems in return for tens of billions of dollars and political influence in another country is an impressive bit of statesmanship. Too bad the US doesn't have someone able to artfully pull off a masterful kind of deal like the... Read More
There is some evidence that support for Trump appears to be stronger among younger blacks than among older ones. To the extent that is true, though, it does not appear to be carrying over to the GOP more broadly. From, self-identified partisan affiliation among American blacks, by age, in a two-option format (Republican or... Read More
Here's one last delusional, fantastical gasp at how Trump will follow in his predecessor's footsteps and be the president the deplorables hoped from the beginning he would be: Just as Romney won the challenging party's nomination after placing second in the election that gave Obama his first term, Sanders wins the 2020 nomination. Putatively on... Read More
The 2018 iteration of the GSS is out, which means Wordsum scores by candidate vote are out, too. Mean IQ for Trump and Clinton voters as converted from Wordsum results assuming a white mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15 (N = 822): Trump voters -- 100.1 Clinton voters -- 99.7 Read a... Read More
Nobody wanted--needed!--it to be true more than white liberals did: A few of the most zealous believers will cling to the attendant statement that while two years, a bazillion dollars, and a gazillion investigatory man-hours couldn't turn up a shred of evidence of collusion between Trump and Russia, the orange man hasn't been formally exonerated... Read More
Predicting Kamala Harris years before she was recognized as a legitimate contender was fun. As she has become a top-tier candidate however, my confidence in the success of her candidacy has actually weakened rather than strengthened. It's mostly on account of my not doing my homework earlier. When I first started making the prediction, I'd... Read More
The only reason there is a modest correlation between age and support for Donald Trump among men is because older generational cohorts are whiter than younger ones are. Once race is taken into account, the relationship vanishes among whites, is revealed to be weak among Hispanics and Asians, and acutely inverts among blacks and Jews.... Read More
One curious aspect of hate crime, which we are told is on the rise in Trump's America, is how it is predominantly a blue state phenomenon. The inverse correlation between Trump's share of the vote and the rate of reported hate crime incidents is .60. That strikingly robust relationship is buoyed by the District of... Read More
From R-I, percentages who blocked a "family member or close friend on social media for reasons related to" the 2016 presidential election: It's conceivable that non-white Trump supporters have taken even more abuse from their social circles than white Trump supporters have. That may go some way in explaining that high figure. Or it could... Read More
Was president Trump's assertion that Bernie Sanders' time had passed in 2016 on the money? By riffing off the MLK legacy as conventionally understood, Sanders is revealing himself to be woefully out of sync with the POC ascendancy: Sanders is not merely incorrect, he is morally wrong. Some might say his divisive rhetoric borders on... Read More