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Dfordoom wants to abolish the intelligence agencies:

Shutting down the CIA and the FBI and all the other “national security” agencies is something that needs to be done. They serve no useful purpose so, in order to justify their existence, they create new enemies. They have played a major part in creating totally unnecessary new Cold Wars against Russia and China, embroiling the US in stupid unnecessary wars and they have created totally imaginary new domestic enemies. They need to be shut down.

They do a lot of bad things, like violate civil liberties, assassinate foreigners, frame citizens, and lie countries civilization-destroying wars.

On the other hand, they’re woke. You’re not a white supremacist, a sexist, a nativist, a homophobe, an anti-Semite, and an ableist are you? Then you’ll stand in solidarity with all the blue checkmarks and cable news talking heads in believing whatever the CIA or the FBI tells you to believe. There there, that’s a good liberal.

Arclight relays firsthand experience from the field suggesting big, long-term projects are beginning to lose steam on account of treasury yields inching up:

In my world (real estate development) we are seeing soaring costs/shortages of material and a slow but steady rise in interest rates, which largely go off the 10 year Treasury. We are starting to see larger single family builders and market rate apartment developers starting to cancel or shelve planned projects because the numbers just don’t work like they did even 6 months ago.

Housing starts tumbled almost 10% in April. That yields are moving up despite the TreasureFed’s commitment to buy up every last one of them necessary to keep rates down–and if keeping rates down is the objective, that commitment is absolutely necessary because nobody else is going to buy–indicates either that the Fed is bluffing and will actually allow rates to rise (hah!) or that confidence in the viability of the financial system is getting shakier.

Mark G. channels my own assessment so well there is nothing I’m able to add but an endorsement:

Gold is normally considered a safe store of value. It hasn’t started going up so far because there is still a general belief the Fed will raise interest rates if inflation gets out of control, as Volcker did forty years ago. It’s not likely to happen, though, because the situation is much worse now. The government has run up a huge debt and can’t afford to pay high levels of interest on that debt. The massive stock bubble would also collapse. All the woke capitalists like Zuckerberg or Bezos who have a majority of their wealth coming from these stock price increases have a lot of influence in Washington and would oppose this.

Once everyone realizes the Fed is going to do nothing to stop inflation you should see gold and silver going up. Very recently international stock prices have been going up faster than U.S. stock prices as it becomes obvious the long term economic prospects of the U.S. are not good. Countries that will be the best off will be European countries that didn’t adopt the euro, countries with lots of natural resources and a relatively small population, and countries which pursue free market policies with low levels of taxes, regulation and government spending.

Responding to the assertion that UBI is “the worst idea in the history of mankind” on account of paying people not to work, V. K. Ovelund correctly notes that isn’t quite the case:

UBI pays people whether or not they work. So there is a difference.

A non-means-tested UBI means that, sans income taxation, every dollar earned through gainful employment provides a full dollar of marginal utility for the person earning it. This is different than other benefit transfers like unemployment.

If a prospective worker finds a $10 an hour job under a system of UBI, he earns $400 per week more than his UBI payment alone affords him. If a prospective worker finds a $10 an hour job while on unemployment that pays him $320 a week, he earns only an additional $80 per week–$2 an hour in a 40-hour workweek–than he had been making on unemployment since he loses unemployment upon becoming employed.

This is a simple, stylized comparison. When Charles Murray wrote In Our Hands, he proposed UBI as a replacement for the current welfare state. What is happening now is UBI is being glommed on top of the existing structure. That is going to cause a lot of additional problems that swapping out the current structure to install UBI would not. It’s another straw–a big one, made of iron–on the dollar’s back.

Twinkie on the social catastrophe set to occur when JIT turns to shit:

People don’t realize how dependent they are to highly complex, “just in time,” (low redundancy) supply chain for all manners of goods, including not just food, but also lifesaving medicine, which keeps literally millions of people alive without much thought today.

A couple of years ago, an Amazon warehouse on the East Coast was damaged by a tornado and much of the region experienced shipping delays lasting up to several weeks. That was a SINGLE warehouse. A highly complex, “efficient” supply and storage system optimized for extracting every penny is extremely vulnerable to external shocks. That’s why governments of yore that had experienced disasters and wars believed in redundancy and procured accordingly. Those days are gone. We are all on our own now – some of you just don’t know it yet.

Greta Handel relays a prescient prognostication from UR’s own Linh Dinh–written seven months before Donald Trump was sworn in as president:

In 2008, Obama was touted as a political outsider who will hose away all of the rot and bloody criminality of the Bush years. He turned out to be a deft move by our ruling class. Though fools still refuse to see it, Obama is a perfect servant of our military banking complex. Now, Trump is being trumpeted as another political outsider.

A Trump presidency will temporarily appease restless, lower class whites, while serving as a magnet for liberal anger. This will buy our ruling class time as they continue to wage war abroad while impoverishing Americans back home. Like Obama, Trump won’t fulfill any of his election promises, and this, too, will be blamed on bipartisan politics.

Thorfinnsson notes an encouraging trait about Florida governor Ron DeSantis–he learns and then calibrates based on what he learns:

Rather than denying the seriousness of the pandemic, DeSantis viewed official recommendations skeptically and sought out other expert advice to tailor his approach. Relative to the leaders in Asia, Florida’s response was of course a catastrophe. But within the USA, DeSantis’ approach produced a modest death rate without major economic or social disruption in what is America’s second oldest state.

This serious approach also augurs well for addressing other matters.

DeSantis delved deep into the data and shifted Florida’s statewide response accordingly through the Summer of 2020. The rest of the country is now in the process of following Florida’s lead. Despite the ebullient praise the corporate media heaped on the governors of California and New York and the scorn it spit at the governor of Florida throughout the Covid crisis, DeSantis has emerged as the most favorably viewed political figure in the country while Gavin Newsom and Andrew Cuomo are fighting not to be thrown out of office.

Parenthetically, I’m unconvinced of Thor’s “of course”. More than a year removed from the onset of the pandemic, it’s well nigh impossible to detect different health outcomes between states that locked down, mandated masks, and pushed vaccines hard from states that didn’t lock down, didn’t mandate masks, and didn’t rush out the shots. Give it a try.

 
• Category: Arts/Letters, Culture/Society, Economics, Science • Tags: COTW 
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  1. “Shutting down the CIA and the FBI and all the other “national security” agencies is something that needs to be done. They serve no useful purpose so, in order to justify their existence, they create new enemies. They have played a major part in creating totally unnecessary new Cold Wars against Russia and China, embroiling the US in stupid unnecessary wars and they have created totally imaginary new domestic enemies. They need to be shut down.”

    i can see why a reasonable person would believe this. but isnt the russian experience instructive? putin was almost entirely a creature of the USSR ‘deep state’. these agencies dont need to be eliminated; they need reform. their competent and patriotic elements need to be empowered.

    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @ravin' lunatic

    That's because the FBI and the CIA are not actually running anything. They're apolitical, and work for others.

    The KGB growing large and running everything is exactly what made Putin. Intelligence requires... intelligence, and intelligence says, that the stronger your country, the stronger you are.

    Replies: @Wency

  2. Gold is up from 1200 to 1900 already, charting out a perfect cup and handle formation which points to $3000 gold in a few years. Interest rates will rise, killing much else, but will remain negative in real terms. Commodity price rises will eat up what little disposable income people have. Need a new fence put in, I wonder what the quote will be compared to last year.

    After the far more dangerous Spanish flu there were stubborn supply problems and inflation. The green nonsense is also an issue now, the disastrous impact of this is beginning to have is being studiously ignored.

    Here we brought in universal credit, much to the left’s fury, the purpose of which was to ensure working was always the better financial choice, this isn’t to be conflated with UBI. Has been a success despite the inevitable teething problems when it was introduced.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/iain-duncan-smith-s-speech-on-welfare-reform---full-text

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @LondonBob


    Need a new fence put in, I wonder what the quote will be compared to last year.
     
    One of my neighbors is a vice president with a national home builder. She told me that lumber price has tripled for her company in one year. I didn't believe her until I talked to the carpenter I often hire for my own house projects and he told me exactly that - tripling of the lumber prices.

    Replies: @Arclight, @Bill Jones, @Audacious Epigone

    , @Mulga Mumblebrain
    @LondonBob

    Anyone who is an apologist for the loathsome thug IDS deserves utter contempt.

  3. Inflation helps the rich and hurts the poor, so obviously the US reserve bank is going to want more of it.

  4. While I share dfordoom‘s view that the CIA and FBI should be shut down, I do not share the naivety that the Federal government acts in our interest, and so the CIA and FBI will not be shuttered. Rather the contrary: their roles and powers will be expanded, particularly their power over private citizens domestically. These agencies may “serve no useful purpose” for us citizens, but they are extremely useful for the covering up and committing of crimes by the government. They are now the American NKVD. Ordinary citizens will be seeing more of them. Much more.

    Yes to Greta Handel / Linh Dinh that Obama and Trump were both billed as political outsiders against the corruption of DC, yet there is an important distinction. Obama’s “outsider” label was a lie. Trump’s wasn’t. As Sailer’s biography of Obama showed, Obama was almost literally bred by the deep state and attentively cultivated and curated by the most rancid and nefarious elements of the political culture. Trump, on the other hand, had only the cynical ties to politics of any large businessman. Obama’s “outsider” label was a psy-op. Trump’s was a frightening reality. Final proof? The powers that be—the media foremost among them—slavishly lauded and welcomed Obama, but they hysterically reviled and resisted Trump. Ultimately, Trump failed. Obama “failed” only if you were foolish enough to believe his scam; he succeeded spectacularly if you understood what he actually was.

  5. @LondonBob
    Gold is up from 1200 to 1900 already, charting out a perfect cup and handle formation which points to $3000 gold in a few years. Interest rates will rise, killing much else, but will remain negative in real terms. Commodity price rises will eat up what little disposable income people have. Need a new fence put in, I wonder what the quote will be compared to last year.

    After the far more dangerous Spanish flu there were stubborn supply problems and inflation. The green nonsense is also an issue now, the disastrous impact of this is beginning to have is being studiously ignored.

    Here we brought in universal credit, much to the left's fury, the purpose of which was to ensure working was always the better financial choice, this isn't to be conflated with UBI. Has been a success despite the inevitable teething problems when it was introduced.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/iain-duncan-smith-s-speech-on-welfare-reform---full-text

    Replies: @Twinkie, @Mulga Mumblebrain

    Need a new fence put in, I wonder what the quote will be compared to last year.

    One of my neighbors is a vice president with a national home builder. She told me that lumber price has tripled for her company in one year. I didn’t believe her until I talked to the carpenter I often hire for my own house projects and he told me exactly that – tripling of the lumber prices.

    • Replies: @Arclight
    @Twinkie

    This is accurate - my company has also seen the same 300% plus increase in random length lumber, which affects framing, exteriors, doors, etc. Plastic pipe is twice as expensive, there is a shortage of drywall and mud, OSB sheathing is up 7x and is a 6 week lead time item, and the shipping containers it all arrives in from China are up 3x.

    There is some hope that things will loosen up a bit in Q4, but there is going to be a new and much more expensive normal all the same. Our leaders obviously are hoping to inflate away our massive borrowing, and they will also be under enormous pressure to keep sending checks to the plebs as the temporary sense of prosperity induced by sending out stimmy checks fades away and the public starts to feel the bite of rising costs across the board on their non-inflated take home pay.

    Replies: @Twinkie

    , @Bill Jones
    @Twinkie

    Wholesale prices here.
    https://www.macrotrends.net/futures/lumber

    This is dollars per 1000 board feet of random length studs.

    Note the logarithmic scale.

    Replies: @res

    , @Audacious Epigone
    @Twinkie

    Yep, I've seen it at Home Depot. A 2x4 was a couple of bucks a year ago. Now it's almost $8.

  6. @Twinkie
    @LondonBob


    Need a new fence put in, I wonder what the quote will be compared to last year.
     
    One of my neighbors is a vice president with a national home builder. She told me that lumber price has tripled for her company in one year. I didn't believe her until I talked to the carpenter I often hire for my own house projects and he told me exactly that - tripling of the lumber prices.

    Replies: @Arclight, @Bill Jones, @Audacious Epigone

    This is accurate – my company has also seen the same 300% plus increase in random length lumber, which affects framing, exteriors, doors, etc. Plastic pipe is twice as expensive, there is a shortage of drywall and mud, OSB sheathing is up 7x and is a 6 week lead time item, and the shipping containers it all arrives in from China are up 3x.

    There is some hope that things will loosen up a bit in Q4, but there is going to be a new and much more expensive normal all the same. Our leaders obviously are hoping to inflate away our massive borrowing, and they will also be under enormous pressure to keep sending checks to the plebs as the temporary sense of prosperity induced by sending out stimmy checks fades away and the public starts to feel the bite of rising costs across the board on their non-inflated take home pay.

    • Thanks: Twinkie
    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @Arclight


    There is some hope that things will loosen up a bit in Q4, but there is going to be a new and much more expensive normal all the same.
     
    In the region where I live, the housing prices have gone insane again. Prices are up 10-20% over last year and expected to increase another 10% in the coming year. There is some building of new homes, but there are constraints to new supply, because half of the county is reserved for green space and can't be built upon (a large part of my own backyard is under a county conservation agreement).

    A nurse I know recently sold her townhouse and had 30+ offers the first day (she and her realtor raised the price and re-listed and still sold it within days). Of course, she then had trouble buying her "upgrade" single family home. Every one she looked at under $1 million had dozens of offers, often cash, all waiving contingencies. She finally bought one from an old widow moving to live with her daughter - the house hadn't been maintained for years and she is basically going to rip out everything and re-do it. She wasn't going to find one in "move-in" condition for her budget and location of choice.
  7. @ravin' lunatic
    "Shutting down the CIA and the FBI and all the other “national security” agencies is something that needs to be done. They serve no useful purpose so, in order to justify their existence, they create new enemies. They have played a major part in creating totally unnecessary new Cold Wars against Russia and China, embroiling the US in stupid unnecessary wars and they have created totally imaginary new domestic enemies. They need to be shut down."

    i can see why a reasonable person would believe this. but isnt the russian experience instructive? putin was almost entirely a creature of the USSR 'deep state'. these agencies dont need to be eliminated; they need reform. their competent and patriotic elements need to be empowered.

    Replies: @Svevlad

    That’s because the FBI and the CIA are not actually running anything. They’re apolitical, and work for others.

    The KGB growing large and running everything is exactly what made Putin. Intelligence requires… intelligence, and intelligence says, that the stronger your country, the stronger you are.

    • Replies: @Wency
    @Svevlad

    The problem with any KGB and CIA comparisons is that the KGB recruited the cream of the crop in Russia, which is a big factor in why one of its people now runs the country. I just don't think the CIA is nearly that good, they don't draw good people. I actually knew a smart and ambitious guy in high school who wanted to go down that path. But somewhere along the line he got a better idea and became a very successful dentist. I don't think it's that he couldn't get in; I just think he realized that becoming a Federal bureaucrat was a loser of an idea.

    By all appearances the CIA legitimately believed that Saddam's nonexistent WMD program was real. There's a lot of Hanlon's Razor going on here, with people refusing to believe that anything as supposedly shadowy as the CIA could possibly make that big a mistake. But I believe it fully.

    Replies: @anon

  8. People don’t realize how dependent they are to highly complex, “just in time,” (low redundancy) supply chain for all manners of goods, including not just food, but also lifesaving medicine, which keeps literally millions of people alive without much thought today.

    I can attest to this important point from Twinkie. I work in quality control at a pharmaceutical manufacturing plant, and our release dates (to send the product to the shipping department once all testing has been completed) are usually within a few days of the out of stock date. This means if we have a delay of even a few days that particular product dosage will be unavailable in pharmacies. Considering that my company’s main products are statins, blood pressure treatments, and thyroid treatments, a lot of people could be in trouble if we miss our delivery dates. It would definitely be smart to have a bigger buffer there- and it would make my job less stressful!

    • Thanks: Twinkie
    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Magic Dirt Resident


    Considering that my company’s main products are statins... a lot of people could be in trouble if we miss our delivery dates.
     
    or not.
    , @Rosie
    @Magic Dirt Resident


    I can attest to this important point from Twinkie. I work in quality control at a pharmaceutical manufacturing plant, and our release dates (to send the product to the shipping department once all testing has been completed) are usually within a few days of the out of stock date.
     
    I too have noticed this. Being a SAHM, I obviously make it a point to save money where I can. What has become clear to me is that the inexpensive retailers I rely on are keeping their prices low, in part, by avoiding overstocks. There are, as a result, recurring sellouts and difficulty buying things.

    This can be really annoying, even in situations that are nowhere near as serious. Say you bought a new bed for one of your kids from Ikea. You like it, so you decide you want the matching dresser. Good luck. It could be years before you happen to be anywhere near an Ikea right when they happen to have it in stock.

    Covid obviously made things worse, but it has always been that way to an extent. It's almost enough to make you say to hell with it and shop elsewhere.
    , @Twinkie
    @Magic Dirt Resident

    And all that is in the absence of panic-buying and hoarding behavior, which often exacerbate shortages in the event of an external shock. Witness the recent disruption of gasoline supply on the East Coast and the attendant behaviors by some people:

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/wp-content/uploads/Gasoline-Hoarder-Gas-Cans-Back-of-Car-Unsourced-Image-052021.jpg

    https://am22.mediaite.com/tms/cnt/uploads/2021/05/pipeline-gas-shortage-hoarding-plastic-bags.jpg

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

  9. Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jay Powell is a filthy whore prostitute for evil globalizer billionaire plutocrats such as Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg.

    Jay Powell is the evil frontman for the organized crime syndicate called the Federal Reserve Bank. The privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank uses its monopoly power over monetary policy to concentrate loot and political power in the greedy clutching claw hands of the globalizer plutocrat billionaires and the vicious and avaricious money-grubbing White Upper Middle Class Snot Brats.

    I wrote this in April of 2021:

    Asset Bubble talk might be better than dollar breaking in political messaging because you can more easily tie the asset bubble rhetoric into explaining the rancid Finance and Insurance and Real Estate FIRE sector currently running amok due to the monetary extremism of the privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank.

    Fed Organized Crime Syndicate Boss Jay Powell goes to Jeff Bezos’s massive compound estate in Swamp City DC for dinner and takes his orders from Bezos and other billionaires and Jay Powell only serves billionaires and the nasty skanks in the Upper Middle Class and corporate managerial slobs and foreigners. The Fed is the globalized organized criminal syndicate that pauperizes regular people and enriches the greedy, money-grubbing plutocrat slobs.

    SECESSIONISM and MONETARY EXTREMISM and EXPLICIT WHITE IDENTITY POLICS and the JEW/WASP RULING CLASS of the American Empire and monetary policy madness and mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration and anti-White propaganda endlessly emanating from the corporate propaganda apparatus and the only thing holding the American Empire together is monetary policy extremism from the privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank.

    Don’t listen to corporate propaganda whore douchebags such as the rodentine Ross Douthat who sniff on about WHITE IDENTITY POLITICS being “toxic.” The Reagan/Bush/Trump Republican Party is toxic and the JEW/WASP Ruling Class of the American Empire is toxic and the NY Times and the Wall Street Journal are toxic and Explicit White Identity Politics is exactly what will start the dislodgement process of the rancid JEW/WASP Ruling Class of the American Empire.

    Ruling Class Decapitation Will Save The Nation

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/cogs-in-an-evil-machine/#comment-4618160

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    @Charles Pewitt

    $200B friends and that slug on the left can't even be bothered to put on a tux. I wonder what champagne Bezos serves at his parties. I love champagne, but in the last decade, I think the quality has dropped across the board. I suspect it is due to the Asian market. China is eating our lunch and drinking our champagne. Bastards!

    Replies: @Charles Pewitt, @Supply and Demand, @Bill

    , @Realist
    @Charles Pewitt

    Ninety percent of U. S. citizens are taking it in the ass, while the ten percent live it up. How long will the stupid population put up with it?

    Replies: @Daniel H

    , @The Alarmist
    @Charles Pewitt

    Guy on the left looks like security, or maybe a low-level Congress Critter... I can’t quite make out the lapel pin.

    Replies: @Bill

  10. @Charles Pewitt
    Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jay Powell is a filthy whore prostitute for evil globalizer billionaire plutocrats such as Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg.

    Jay Powell is the evil frontman for the organized crime syndicate called the Federal Reserve Bank. The privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank uses its monopoly power over monetary policy to concentrate loot and political power in the greedy clutching claw hands of the globalizer plutocrat billionaires and the vicious and avaricious money-grubbing White Upper Middle Class Snot Brats.

    I wrote this in April of 2021:

    Asset Bubble talk might be better than dollar breaking in political messaging because you can more easily tie the asset bubble rhetoric into explaining the rancid Finance and Insurance and Real Estate FIRE sector currently running amok due to the monetary extremism of the privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank.

    Fed Organized Crime Syndicate Boss Jay Powell goes to Jeff Bezos’s massive compound estate in Swamp City DC for dinner and takes his orders from Bezos and other billionaires and Jay Powell only serves billionaires and the nasty skanks in the Upper Middle Class and corporate managerial slobs and foreigners. The Fed is the globalized organized criminal syndicate that pauperizes regular people and enriches the greedy, money-grubbing plutocrat slobs.

    SECESSIONISM and MONETARY EXTREMISM and EXPLICIT WHITE IDENTITY POLICS and the JEW/WASP RULING CLASS of the American Empire and monetary policy madness and mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration and anti-White propaganda endlessly emanating from the corporate propaganda apparatus and the only thing holding the American Empire together is monetary policy extremism from the privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank.

    Don’t listen to corporate propaganda whore douchebags such as the rodentine Ross Douthat who sniff on about WHITE IDENTITY POLITICS being “toxic.” The Reagan/Bush/Trump Republican Party is toxic and the JEW/WASP Ruling Class of the American Empire is toxic and the NY Times and the Wall Street Journal are toxic and Explicit White Identity Politics is exactly what will start the dislodgement process of the rancid JEW/WASP Ruling Class of the American Empire.

    Ruling Class Decapitation Will Save The Nation

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/cogs-in-an-evil-machine/#comment-4618160

    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1298923379001614338?s=20

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Realist, @The Alarmist

    $200B friends and that slug on the left can’t even be bothered to put on a tux. I wonder what champagne Bezos serves at his parties. I love champagne, but in the last decade, I think the quality has dropped across the board. I suspect it is due to the Asian market. China is eating our lunch and drinking our champagne. Bastards!

    • Replies: @Charles Pewitt
    @Chrisnonymous

    $200B friends and that slug on the left can’t even be bothered to put on a tux. I wonder what champagne Bezos serves at his parties. I love champagne, but in the last decade, I think the quality has dropped across the board. I suspect it is due to the Asian market. China is eating our lunch and drinking our champagne. Bastards!

    I say:

    As a bald man it's obvious to me that Powell has sold his soul to the Devil for that thick mop of hair and ain't that sonofabitch Powell look raffish with that disheveled mop of hair and he goes to the SWAMP CITY DC ESTATE COMPOUND of Jeff Bezos and Powell got his marching orders to keep the asset bubbles bubbling so Bezos can clam rake more loot out of the stock market bubble.

    Champagne swilling Fed swells can go to hell but decent people may sip the bubbly at their leisure.

    Bezos must be financially liquidated, but I would say that because I don't want anyone getting more radical than me when the asset bubble implosion hits.

    , @Supply and Demand
    @Chrisnonymous

    The Chinese appreciate champagne. Americans don't. Thankfully I learned the essentials here.

    , @Bill
    @Chrisnonymous

    You have to pay extra to buy your bodyguard a tux. The Fed has other priorities.

  11. Everything has to go. Fourth Turning comes hard when coupled with Armstrong’s 309-year civilizational paradigm cycle.

  12. @Magic Dirt Resident

    People don’t realize how dependent they are to highly complex, “just in time,” (low redundancy) supply chain for all manners of goods, including not just food, but also lifesaving medicine, which keeps literally millions of people alive without much thought today.
     
    I can attest to this important point from Twinkie. I work in quality control at a pharmaceutical manufacturing plant, and our release dates (to send the product to the shipping department once all testing has been completed) are usually within a few days of the out of stock date. This means if we have a delay of even a few days that particular product dosage will be unavailable in pharmacies. Considering that my company's main products are statins, blood pressure treatments, and thyroid treatments, a lot of people could be in trouble if we miss our delivery dates. It would definitely be smart to have a bigger buffer there- and it would make my job less stressful!

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Rosie, @Twinkie

    Considering that my company’s main products are statins… a lot of people could be in trouble if we miss our delivery dates.

    or not.

  13. UBI pays people whether or not they work. So there is a difference.

    I say:

    Universal Basic Income or Federal Reserve Bank Guaranteed Monthly Income or Pewitt Conjured Loot Portion, it don’t matter what you call it, it should be framed as a POLITICAL TOOL to dislodge the Ruling Class of the American Empire. UBI is about RAW POLITICAL POWER and not economics. Politics first and always and the power to create money and detonate nukes is POLITICAL POWER.

    The Fed is now electronically laundering conjured up currency through the FIRE sector — Finance, Insurance, Real Estate — and the Fed has created massive soon-to-pop asset bubbles in stocks and bonds and real estate.

    The Fed should be nationalized and the Fed funds rate raised to 6 percent and that will pop the asset bubbles in a split second and the Fed should be doling out the cash directly instead of laundering the loot through the banks and the FIRE sector and the debt-based fiat currency system needs restraining anyways.

    I wrote this in August of 2020:

    UBI or the Pewitt Conjured Loot Portion(PCLP) is about raw power and who has it. A UBI or PCLP will allow the historic American nation or the European Christian ancestral core the ability to dislodge from power the evil and treasonous JEW/WASP ruling class from power.

    The Pewitt Conjured Loot Portion(PCLP) will pay each American who has all blood ancestry born in colonial America or the USA before 1924 a cool ten thousand dollars a month. The US Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank shall work together to conjure up the cash out of thin air, just like the ruling class is doing now.

    Sam Francis said it’s all about the ruling classes and Sam was right. A UBI or PCLP will create the conditions whereby tens of trillions of dollars and land and property and licenses and other assets can be severed from the ownership and control of the current corrupt and illegitimate JEW/WASP ruling class members of the American Empire and doled out to the patriotic and honorable old stocker members of the European Christian ancestral core.

    UBI or PCLP is about raw political power; it’s not about economics.

    The ability to control the central bank is the true power and it must be contested by the old stocker members of the historic American nation.

    The Federal Reserve Bank must be nationalized and the JEW/WASP ruling class and its minions must be financially liquidated and its members must be forcibly exiled to a hot and humid and nasty part of sub-Saharan Africa. All this must be done legally, of course.

    William the Conqueror thought he got screwed out of his rightful inheritance, and the JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire is screwing over the decent and patriotic members of the old stocker historic American nation. Of course, horrible treasonous sleazebag old stockers like those in the Bush Organized Crime Syndicate are examples of old stocker evil globalizer treasonite ruling class nation-wreckers.

    Repudiate All Debt and Financially Liquidate The Plutocrats And Their Stooges.

    GOD BLESS AMERICA!

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/shaking-the-money-tree/#comment-4134922

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Charles Pewitt

    UBI can be the great equalizer or the biggest chain to the monetary-financial system.

    Getting paid and saving in precious metals have a better return than fiat or CBDC UBI (which value can also be inflated away with all the money-printing needed), and it's firmly outside the eyes of the state. Crypto too, but more volatile.

  14. @Chrisnonymous
    @Charles Pewitt

    $200B friends and that slug on the left can't even be bothered to put on a tux. I wonder what champagne Bezos serves at his parties. I love champagne, but in the last decade, I think the quality has dropped across the board. I suspect it is due to the Asian market. China is eating our lunch and drinking our champagne. Bastards!

    Replies: @Charles Pewitt, @Supply and Demand, @Bill

    $200B friends and that slug on the left can’t even be bothered to put on a tux. I wonder what champagne Bezos serves at his parties. I love champagne, but in the last decade, I think the quality has dropped across the board. I suspect it is due to the Asian market. China is eating our lunch and drinking our champagne. Bastards!

    I say:

    As a bald man it’s obvious to me that Powell has sold his soul to the Devil for that thick mop of hair and ain’t that sonofabitch Powell look raffish with that disheveled mop of hair and he goes to the SWAMP CITY DC ESTATE COMPOUND of Jeff Bezos and Powell got his marching orders to keep the asset bubbles bubbling so Bezos can clam rake more loot out of the stock market bubble.

    Champagne swilling Fed swells can go to hell but decent people may sip the bubbly at their leisure.

    Bezos must be financially liquidated, but I would say that because I don’t want anyone getting more radical than me when the asset bubble implosion hits.

  15. @Charles Pewitt
    Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jay Powell is a filthy whore prostitute for evil globalizer billionaire plutocrats such as Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg.

    Jay Powell is the evil frontman for the organized crime syndicate called the Federal Reserve Bank. The privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank uses its monopoly power over monetary policy to concentrate loot and political power in the greedy clutching claw hands of the globalizer plutocrat billionaires and the vicious and avaricious money-grubbing White Upper Middle Class Snot Brats.

    I wrote this in April of 2021:

    Asset Bubble talk might be better than dollar breaking in political messaging because you can more easily tie the asset bubble rhetoric into explaining the rancid Finance and Insurance and Real Estate FIRE sector currently running amok due to the monetary extremism of the privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank.

    Fed Organized Crime Syndicate Boss Jay Powell goes to Jeff Bezos’s massive compound estate in Swamp City DC for dinner and takes his orders from Bezos and other billionaires and Jay Powell only serves billionaires and the nasty skanks in the Upper Middle Class and corporate managerial slobs and foreigners. The Fed is the globalized organized criminal syndicate that pauperizes regular people and enriches the greedy, money-grubbing plutocrat slobs.

    SECESSIONISM and MONETARY EXTREMISM and EXPLICIT WHITE IDENTITY POLICS and the JEW/WASP RULING CLASS of the American Empire and monetary policy madness and mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration and anti-White propaganda endlessly emanating from the corporate propaganda apparatus and the only thing holding the American Empire together is monetary policy extremism from the privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank.

    Don’t listen to corporate propaganda whore douchebags such as the rodentine Ross Douthat who sniff on about WHITE IDENTITY POLITICS being “toxic.” The Reagan/Bush/Trump Republican Party is toxic and the JEW/WASP Ruling Class of the American Empire is toxic and the NY Times and the Wall Street Journal are toxic and Explicit White Identity Politics is exactly what will start the dislodgement process of the rancid JEW/WASP Ruling Class of the American Empire.

    Ruling Class Decapitation Will Save The Nation

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/cogs-in-an-evil-machine/#comment-4618160

    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1298923379001614338?s=20

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Realist, @The Alarmist

    Ninety percent of U. S. citizens are taking it in the ass, while the ten percent live it up. How long will the stupid population put up with it?

    • Replies: @Daniel H
    @Realist


    Ninety percent of U. S. citizens are taking it in the ass, while the ten percent live it up. How long will the stupid population put up with it?
     
    That's an important point you made. It's not 1% or 0.001% that benefit very much off the current regime, it is approximately 10%. In that 10% I would include not just the possessors of vast sums of capital but also the factotums of capital (bankers, lawyers, "management consultants", banker back office, ALL government workers (local, state, fed), et. al). This 10% is a formidable adversary. Basically, government serves their interests and at best ignores the rest of us, at worst conspires to harm us. The 10% are doing well. They see no reason for fundamental change and they punch way above their proportionate weight. I don't see a way out.

    Replies: @Realist

  16. … single family builders and market rate apartment developers starting to cancel or shelve planned projects because the numbers just don’t work like they did even 6 months ago.

    Wow, I remember making investments in these sorts of projects work with the 10-Year Treasury somewhat north of 8%, with nothing near the LTV allowed today. Sorry folks, but this is just pathetic.

    Since TPTB can’t seem to launch the inflation they need to crush the middle and merchant classes with the flood of money they have poured into the system, the next step is to increase the velocity of money, which means zero yields could be in the works despite market rate pressures to the upside. Fisher is on life support, because TPTB are willing to suffer severely negative yields to shake out the annoyances from the markets. Who knows, we might get digital dollars with expiration dates too.

    Gold prices are being artificially repressed to make gold look like an unattractive store of value. The BIS might just pull the rug out from under the banks doing this, once the central banks that matter are in a place to profit from cutting the legs out from under the commercial banks.

    • Replies: @V. K. Ovelund
    @The Alarmist


    Gold prices are being artificially repressed ...
     
    How, please?

    Replies: @Arclight, @The Alarmist

  17. “The Fed Is Going to Do Nothing to Stop Inflation”

    A reminder :

    “The Federal Reserve System is not Federal; it has no reserves; and it is not a system at all, but rather, a criminal syndicate.” Eustace Mullins

    Regards, onebornfree
    http://onebornfreesfinancialsafetyreports.blogspot.com/

  18. @Charles Pewitt
    Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jay Powell is a filthy whore prostitute for evil globalizer billionaire plutocrats such as Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg.

    Jay Powell is the evil frontman for the organized crime syndicate called the Federal Reserve Bank. The privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank uses its monopoly power over monetary policy to concentrate loot and political power in the greedy clutching claw hands of the globalizer plutocrat billionaires and the vicious and avaricious money-grubbing White Upper Middle Class Snot Brats.

    I wrote this in April of 2021:

    Asset Bubble talk might be better than dollar breaking in political messaging because you can more easily tie the asset bubble rhetoric into explaining the rancid Finance and Insurance and Real Estate FIRE sector currently running amok due to the monetary extremism of the privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank.

    Fed Organized Crime Syndicate Boss Jay Powell goes to Jeff Bezos’s massive compound estate in Swamp City DC for dinner and takes his orders from Bezos and other billionaires and Jay Powell only serves billionaires and the nasty skanks in the Upper Middle Class and corporate managerial slobs and foreigners. The Fed is the globalized organized criminal syndicate that pauperizes regular people and enriches the greedy, money-grubbing plutocrat slobs.

    SECESSIONISM and MONETARY EXTREMISM and EXPLICIT WHITE IDENTITY POLICS and the JEW/WASP RULING CLASS of the American Empire and monetary policy madness and mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration and anti-White propaganda endlessly emanating from the corporate propaganda apparatus and the only thing holding the American Empire together is monetary policy extremism from the privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank.

    Don’t listen to corporate propaganda whore douchebags such as the rodentine Ross Douthat who sniff on about WHITE IDENTITY POLITICS being “toxic.” The Reagan/Bush/Trump Republican Party is toxic and the JEW/WASP Ruling Class of the American Empire is toxic and the NY Times and the Wall Street Journal are toxic and Explicit White Identity Politics is exactly what will start the dislodgement process of the rancid JEW/WASP Ruling Class of the American Empire.

    Ruling Class Decapitation Will Save The Nation

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/cogs-in-an-evil-machine/#comment-4618160

    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1298923379001614338?s=20

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Realist, @The Alarmist

    Guy on the left looks like security, or maybe a low-level Congress Critter… I can’t quite make out the lapel pin.

    • Replies: @Bill
    @The Alarmist

    Look at his ear.

    Replies: @The Alarmist

  19. @The Alarmist

    ... single family builders and market rate apartment developers starting to cancel or shelve planned projects because the numbers just don’t work like they did even 6 months ago.
     
    Wow, I remember making investments in these sorts of projects work with the 10-Year Treasury somewhat north of 8%, with nothing near the LTV allowed today. Sorry folks, but this is just pathetic.

    Since TPTB can’t seem to launch the inflation they need to crush the middle and merchant classes with the flood of money they have poured into the system, the next step is to increase the velocity of money, which means zero yields could be in the works despite market rate pressures to the upside. Fisher is on life support, because TPTB are willing to suffer severely negative yields to shake out the annoyances from the markets. Who knows, we might get digital dollars with expiration dates too.

    Gold prices are being artificially repressed to make gold look like an unattractive store of value. The BIS might just pull the rug out from under the banks doing this, once the central banks that matter are in a place to profit from cutting the legs out from under the commercial banks.

    Replies: @V. K. Ovelund

    Gold prices are being artificially repressed …

    How, please?

    • Replies: @Arclight
    @V. K. Ovelund

    Not sure what he has in mind, but I have seen others observe that crypto (particularly Bitcoin) is probably attracting a lot of capital that would have otherwise gone into gold. Only anecdotal, but the biggest goldbug I have as a friend has been really into the crypto space over the last year or so.

    , @The Alarmist
    @V. K. Ovelund

    Don’t take my word, take Forbes’ ...


    Gold Suppression: It’s Not a Question of IF but to WHAT EXTENT

    First of all, let me say that gold price suppression (“fixing,” “rigging,” “manipulating” or however else you want to think about it) is not just a conspiracy theory. It’s a well-documented phenomenon, with real actors and real ramifications. In 2014, Barclays was fined nearly $44 million for failing to prevent traders from manipulating the London gold “fix.” Late last year, a former JPMorgan trader pleaded guilty to manipulating the U.S. metals markets. Remember the gold futures “flash crash” of 2014?

    The best people to speak to about this subject are the folks at the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, or GATA. For 20 years now, Chris Powell and others at GATA have made it their mission to expose collusion by international financial institutions to control the price and supply of gold.
     
    source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/05/20/yes-gold-is-being-manipulated-but-to-what-extent/

    If you want to go down the rabbit hole, there’s no shortage of commentary and analysis on the suppression of gold prices for years.
  20. @Chrisnonymous
    @Charles Pewitt

    $200B friends and that slug on the left can't even be bothered to put on a tux. I wonder what champagne Bezos serves at his parties. I love champagne, but in the last decade, I think the quality has dropped across the board. I suspect it is due to the Asian market. China is eating our lunch and drinking our champagne. Bastards!

    Replies: @Charles Pewitt, @Supply and Demand, @Bill

    The Chinese appreciate champagne. Americans don’t. Thankfully I learned the essentials here.

  21. @V. K. Ovelund
    @The Alarmist


    Gold prices are being artificially repressed ...
     
    How, please?

    Replies: @Arclight, @The Alarmist

    Not sure what he has in mind, but I have seen others observe that crypto (particularly Bitcoin) is probably attracting a lot of capital that would have otherwise gone into gold. Only anecdotal, but the biggest goldbug I have as a friend has been really into the crypto space over the last year or so.

    • Thanks: V. K. Ovelund
  22. Way too many topics for a readable thread AE.

    • Replies: @anon
    @WorkingClass

    Way too many topics for a readable thread AE.

    Clickbait does not have to be readable.

    , @Audacious Epigone
    @WorkingClass

    These Sunday comment of the week posts are quasi open threads.

  23. @Svevlad
    @ravin' lunatic

    That's because the FBI and the CIA are not actually running anything. They're apolitical, and work for others.

    The KGB growing large and running everything is exactly what made Putin. Intelligence requires... intelligence, and intelligence says, that the stronger your country, the stronger you are.

    Replies: @Wency

    The problem with any KGB and CIA comparisons is that the KGB recruited the cream of the crop in Russia, which is a big factor in why one of its people now runs the country. I just don’t think the CIA is nearly that good, they don’t draw good people. I actually knew a smart and ambitious guy in high school who wanted to go down that path. But somewhere along the line he got a better idea and became a very successful dentist. I don’t think it’s that he couldn’t get in; I just think he realized that becoming a Federal bureaucrat was a loser of an idea.

    By all appearances the CIA legitimately believed that Saddam’s nonexistent WMD program was real. There’s a lot of Hanlon’s Razor going on here, with people refusing to believe that anything as supposedly shadowy as the CIA could possibly make that big a mistake. But I believe it fully.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @anon
    @Wency

    There’s a lot of Hanlon’s Razor going on here, with people refusing to believe that anything as supposedly shadowy as the CIA could possibly make that big a mistake.

    Do not have the reference handy, but the CIA consistently overestimated Soviet industrial capacity and capabilities for decades. When the Berlin Wall came down and anyone could see just what the Warsaw Pact looked like, it was a real shock to many people.

    "Hyper-competent CIA" is a myth. Maybe it was true 70+ years ago, but I'm skeptical.

    Replies: @Mark G.

  24. @V. K. Ovelund
    @The Alarmist


    Gold prices are being artificially repressed ...
     
    How, please?

    Replies: @Arclight, @The Alarmist

    Don’t take my word, take Forbes’ …

    Gold Suppression: It’s Not a Question of IF but to WHAT EXTENT

    First of all, let me say that gold price suppression (“fixing,” “rigging,” “manipulating” or however else you want to think about it) is not just a conspiracy theory. It’s a well-documented phenomenon, with real actors and real ramifications. In 2014, Barclays was fined nearly $44 million for failing to prevent traders from manipulating the London gold “fix.” Late last year, a former JPMorgan trader pleaded guilty to manipulating the U.S. metals markets. Remember the gold futures “flash crash” of 2014?

    The best people to speak to about this subject are the folks at the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, or GATA. For 20 years now, Chris Powell and others at GATA have made it their mission to expose collusion by international financial institutions to control the price and supply of gold.

    source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/05/20/yes-gold-is-being-manipulated-but-to-what-extent/

    If you want to go down the rabbit hole, there’s no shortage of commentary and analysis on the suppression of gold prices for years.

    • Thanks: V. K. Ovelund
  25. A123 says:

    People don’t realize how dependent they are to highly complex, “just in time,” (low redundancy) supply chain for all manners of goods,

    A highly complex, “efficient” supply and storage system optimized for extracting every penny is extremely vulnerable to external shocks. That’s why governments of yore that had experienced disasters and wars believed in redundancy and procured accordingly. Those days are gone.

    The shift from restaurant to at-home dining highlighted this problem. Industrial buyers purchase milk in bags not labelled for retail sale. The lack of capacity to ramp up production of 1-gallon plastic jugs meant there was no way to expand quantity going to the retail market.

    Any business dependant on containers carried by the Ever Given is in serious trouble. The vessel is still impounded by the Egypt government.
    ______

    A short supply chain rebounds much faster than a lengthy one. This requires expanding domestic:
    • Raw material extraction
    • Manufacturing

    USMCA is better than NAFTA, but much more needs to be done. Right now, the biggest problem distorting supply chains is CCP exploitation. And, you can be sure that the Harris/Biden regime will make things worse.

    PEACE 😇

    • Troll: Mulga Mumblebrain
    • Replies: @Charles Pewitt
    @A123

    The shift from restaurant to at-home dining highlighted this problem. Industrial buyers purchase milk in bags not labelled for retail sale. The lack of capacity to ramp up production of 1-gallon plastic jugs meant there was no way to expand quantity going to the retail market.

    I say:

    Extrusion plastic container creation is omnipresent and most rinky dink factory dairy facilities make their own.

    USMCA is better than NAFTA, but much more needs to be done. Right now, the biggest problem distorting supply chains is CCP exploitation. And, you can be sure that the Harris/Biden regime will make things worse.

    I say:

    Mexico should be quarantined and all Mexican illegal alien invaders should be extruded back to Mexico and Mexican Ma-key a-doritas foreign assembly and manufacturing areas should be bombed by the US Air Force -- all people must be removed safely before rubblization of course -- and any and all goods made in Mexico should be banned from the USA and the Canadians should be watched very carefully, especially Canadian interloper Teddy Cruz -- Trump was concerned about talk of Teddy Cruz's father being somehow involved in the assassination of the son of the guy who got out of the stock market bubble of the late 1920s before it popped.

    Mitch McConnell and Rick Scott and Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are all in bed with the Chinese Communist Party.

    , @Mulga Mumblebrain
    @A123

    The Sabbat Goy racist returns to smear China. It must get boring, but servitude is servitude, and its Zionazi Masters hate and fear the Chinese, who have the audacity to treat Jews as fellow human beings, not the Gods Upon the Earth that they believe themselves to be.

    , @Yellowface Anon
    @A123

    Why would you want supply chains fully within the US when it's being Balkanized into NY and Cali marching on WEF's tune, Texas and Florida being what remains of old Americana, and the rest chaos?

    Ideally the supply chains should start out to be short enough to be contained within a locality (a county). If any industrial material and product can't be done, use more primitive substitutes. Then, as things stabilize between each locality, extend it without creating nodes that can be centralized. But never a global supply chain.

    Replies: @A123

  26. @WorkingClass
    Way too many topics for a readable thread AE.

    Replies: @anon, @Audacious Epigone

    Way too many topics for a readable thread AE.

    Clickbait does not have to be readable.

  27. anon[152] • Disclaimer says:
    @Wency
    @Svevlad

    The problem with any KGB and CIA comparisons is that the KGB recruited the cream of the crop in Russia, which is a big factor in why one of its people now runs the country. I just don't think the CIA is nearly that good, they don't draw good people. I actually knew a smart and ambitious guy in high school who wanted to go down that path. But somewhere along the line he got a better idea and became a very successful dentist. I don't think it's that he couldn't get in; I just think he realized that becoming a Federal bureaucrat was a loser of an idea.

    By all appearances the CIA legitimately believed that Saddam's nonexistent WMD program was real. There's a lot of Hanlon's Razor going on here, with people refusing to believe that anything as supposedly shadowy as the CIA could possibly make that big a mistake. But I believe it fully.

    Replies: @anon

    There’s a lot of Hanlon’s Razor going on here, with people refusing to believe that anything as supposedly shadowy as the CIA could possibly make that big a mistake.

    Do not have the reference handy, but the CIA consistently overestimated Soviet industrial capacity and capabilities for decades. When the Berlin Wall came down and anyone could see just what the Warsaw Pact looked like, it was a real shock to many people.

    “Hyper-competent CIA” is a myth. Maybe it was true 70+ years ago, but I’m skeptical.

    • Replies: @Mark G.
    @anon


    “Hyper-competent CIA” is a myth. Maybe it was true 70+ years ago, but I’m skeptical.
     
    Sixty years ago was the CIA-led Bay of Pigs Invasion. That wasn't "hyper-competent".

    Replies: @Wency

  28. I’m not sure how the topic of the necessity and scope of FBI and CIA charters impacts the Federal Reserve charter and inflation. I do agree these institutions are out of control and require competent leadership and Congressional oversight. Unfortunately the only two types of politicians capable controlling these institutions either like what they are doing or are afraid of them and unwilling to intervene. FBI labs have been misused to achieve the convictions of innocent people. While J Edgar Hoover considered Martin Luther King to be the most dangerous man in the United States and applauded his assassination, today every major city has a street named after MLK. The crimes of the CIA require a book to fully explain. They can possibly be reformed, but not eliminated. International Treaties to halt State sponsored hacking would be an excellent place to start. But the USA, believing it has the upper hand has consistently refused to enter any such agreements. Elimination of nuclear weapons would be even better.

    We have been in a period of debt driven deflation for a long time, though recent spikes in wood, gasoline and housing mask this trend. Whether these spikes are a short term consequence of work slowdowns caused by the pandemic or a long term irreversible trend is not clear. By keeping interest rates low Powell is protecting the value of real estate loans for the bankers. This is how our Oligarchy operates, regardless who is in charge. Free market theory and policy (aka Bullshit) continues to concentrate wealth.

  29. DeSantis delved deep into the data and shifted Florida’s statewide response accordingly through the Summer of 2020.

    Yep. Data-driven deliberate government is one of the many casualties of perpetual revolution and the polarization that goes along with that. Since revolutionaries never known when to stop, most all revolution is perpetual.

    • Replies: @bayviking
    @Rosie

    It does seem strange at first that blue and red States with opposite policies have similar outcomes. But pandemic control requires a national policy because of our open borders. Many Asian countries, New Zealand and a few African countries have gained control quickly of the outbreak, when compared to the United States with harsh national policies. The only change that has improved outcomes here has been the vaccines. This is controversial, strangely because the same people that love Trump appear to hate his fast tracked vaccine and have almost certainly been vaccinated for polio, smallpox and other diseases, just to attend school.

    DeSantis's policies are driven exclusively by what's best for business, not human health or pandemic control. The latest release of AARP’s Nursing Home COVID-19 Dashboard shows that Florida is trending higher than the national average for new reported cases of the virus. Vaccination rates among Florida’s long-term care workers remains very low at 38%,” said AARP Florida State Director Jeff Johnson. “With new AARP data indicating Florida is trending higher than the national average for new COVID-19 cases. So DeSantis’s policies are having a negative impact on the large elderly population in Florida. It is ridiculous to pretend that DeSantis is on to some higher level of data driven scientific thinking. Republican control of Florida is a long running tragedy based on gerrymandering, voter purging, software tampering and ballot invalidation.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Jtgw

  30. @Magic Dirt Resident

    People don’t realize how dependent they are to highly complex, “just in time,” (low redundancy) supply chain for all manners of goods, including not just food, but also lifesaving medicine, which keeps literally millions of people alive without much thought today.
     
    I can attest to this important point from Twinkie. I work in quality control at a pharmaceutical manufacturing plant, and our release dates (to send the product to the shipping department once all testing has been completed) are usually within a few days of the out of stock date. This means if we have a delay of even a few days that particular product dosage will be unavailable in pharmacies. Considering that my company's main products are statins, blood pressure treatments, and thyroid treatments, a lot of people could be in trouble if we miss our delivery dates. It would definitely be smart to have a bigger buffer there- and it would make my job less stressful!

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Rosie, @Twinkie

    I can attest to this important point from Twinkie. I work in quality control at a pharmaceutical manufacturing plant, and our release dates (to send the product to the shipping department once all testing has been completed) are usually within a few days of the out of stock date.

    I too have noticed this. Being a SAHM, I obviously make it a point to save money where I can. What has become clear to me is that the inexpensive retailers I rely on are keeping their prices low, in part, by avoiding overstocks. There are, as a result, recurring sellouts and difficulty buying things.

    This can be really annoying, even in situations that are nowhere near as serious. Say you bought a new bed for one of your kids from Ikea. You like it, so you decide you want the matching dresser. Good luck. It could be years before you happen to be anywhere near an Ikea right when they happen to have it in stock.

    Covid obviously made things worse, but it has always been that way to an extent. It’s almost enough to make you say to hell with it and shop elsewhere.

  31. @Rosie

    DeSantis delved deep into the data and shifted Florida’s statewide response accordingly through the Summer of 2020.
     
    Yep. Data-driven deliberate government is one of the many casualties of perpetual revolution and the polarization that goes along with that. Since revolutionaries never known when to stop, most all revolution is perpetual.

    Replies: @bayviking

    It does seem strange at first that blue and red States with opposite policies have similar outcomes. But pandemic control requires a national policy because of our open borders. Many Asian countries, New Zealand and a few African countries have gained control quickly of the outbreak, when compared to the United States with harsh national policies. The only change that has improved outcomes here has been the vaccines. This is controversial, strangely because the same people that love Trump appear to hate his fast tracked vaccine and have almost certainly been vaccinated for polio, smallpox and other diseases, just to attend school.

    DeSantis’s policies are driven exclusively by what’s best for business, not human health or pandemic control. The latest release of AARP’s Nursing Home COVID-19 Dashboard shows that Florida is trending higher than the national average for new reported cases of the virus. Vaccination rates among Florida’s long-term care workers remains very low at 38%,” said AARP Florida State Director Jeff Johnson. “With new AARP data indicating Florida is trending higher than the national average for new COVID-19 cases. So DeSantis’s policies are having a negative impact on the large elderly population in Florida. It is ridiculous to pretend that DeSantis is on to some higher level of data driven scientific thinking. Republican control of Florida is a long running tragedy based on gerrymandering, voter purging, software tampering and ballot invalidation.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @bayviking

    It's because COVID mortality average out to be close to normal flu season mortality. Blue state (and more or less those adopted by Canada, the EU, most other countries in the American camp) strategies predicated on reduction of transmission and overemphasis on vaccines above all else, harm living standards in the middle run and creates a segregated and polarized population. And finally many don't lose sight of the role of WEF and WHO in using the crisis to undermine national sovereignty n health policy, not just in the US but everywhere.

    , @Jtgw
    @bayviking

    Good point about open borders. Explains ultimately why so much policy gets nationalized - states and localities really can’t enact their own policies without affecting neighbors that have no legal authority to control their borders, so they have to call in the federal authority to adjudicate and lay down a common policy.

  32. This will go in one of two ways:

    1. Complete techno feudalism.:

    The mass inflation completely wipes out the middle and working classes and reduces them to penury. Mass bankruptcies occur. What little remains of small businesses are wiped out by the depression and big corporations like Amazon and walmart take control of 100% of the market share.

    Wages fall to nothing and most of the land and property are bought up by the banks and finace sharks. Most people now own nothing and rent everything.

    Degeneracy goes into overdrive as all drugs are de facto legalized, alcoholism and suicide skyrockets. The last sensible white people flee to Latin Ameirca and Europe before the mass violence begins. Blacks are fully unleashed by the central state on the popluation in order to keep in a state of terror and mayhem.

    You are not allowed to touch the black rapist, arsonit or marauder lest you be thrown in prison by the local Jewish DA for terrorism and hate crime.

    2. End of Empire

    The situation gets so bad that law and order fall apart. The ability of the government to control the country collapses as people switch to bartering, self sufficient local economies and community policing. The US military ceases to be a fighting force as its paid shit and all the good men leave and the vacant positions are filled trannies, antifa druggies, black criminals and cartel members.

    Gov salaries across the board fall and the state stops functioning. The over-financialized economy is wiped out and due to the fall of the dollar, the import baed economy crumbles. Unemployment rises to 30-40%.

    Gov has no ability to fix this with UBI. In the chaos, parts of the US secede to escape the chaos. Local counties band together and secede from the union to escape ever more punishing taxes and FBI/police state repression.

    The US military in a state of shambles due to demoralization and anarchy is unable to stop it. Large part of the US elite no longer want any part of this ruin.

    The US falls apart as parts of it secede. DC is forced to call its armies home and slash the military as the Empire ends.

    • Thanks: BlackFlag
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Caspar von Everec

    Why not the worst of both scenarios - total societal destruction?

    And while the WEF is at it, why leave the EU, the other Western offshoots and most of Latin America intact?

    America wanted to be a New Rome - and now its empire sees what comes after Rome.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

  33. @A123

    People don’t realize how dependent they are to highly complex, “just in time,” (low redundancy) supply chain for all manners of goods,

    A highly complex, “efficient” supply and storage system optimized for extracting every penny is extremely vulnerable to external shocks. That’s why governments of yore that had experienced disasters and wars believed in redundancy and procured accordingly. Those days are gone.
     

    The shift from restaurant to at-home dining highlighted this problem. Industrial buyers purchase milk in bags not labelled for retail sale. The lack of capacity to ramp up production of 1-gallon plastic jugs meant there was no way to expand quantity going to the retail market.

    Any business dependant on containers carried by the Ever Given is in serious trouble. The vessel is still impounded by the Egypt government.
    ______

    A short supply chain rebounds much faster than a lengthy one. This requires expanding domestic:
    • Raw material extraction
    • Manufacturing

    USMCA is better than NAFTA, but much more needs to be done. Right now, the biggest problem distorting supply chains is CCP exploitation. And, you can be sure that the Harris/Biden regime will make things worse.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Charles Pewitt, @Mulga Mumblebrain, @Yellowface Anon

    The shift from restaurant to at-home dining highlighted this problem. Industrial buyers purchase milk in bags not labelled for retail sale. The lack of capacity to ramp up production of 1-gallon plastic jugs meant there was no way to expand quantity going to the retail market.

    I say:

    Extrusion plastic container creation is omnipresent and most rinky dink factory dairy facilities make their own.

    USMCA is better than NAFTA, but much more needs to be done. Right now, the biggest problem distorting supply chains is CCP exploitation. And, you can be sure that the Harris/Biden regime will make things worse.

    I say:

    Mexico should be quarantined and all Mexican illegal alien invaders should be extruded back to Mexico and Mexican Ma-key a-doritas foreign assembly and manufacturing areas should be bombed by the US Air Force — all people must be removed safely before rubblization of course — and any and all goods made in Mexico should be banned from the USA and the Canadians should be watched very carefully, especially Canadian interloper Teddy Cruz — Trump was concerned about talk of Teddy Cruz’s father being somehow involved in the assassination of the son of the guy who got out of the stock market bubble of the late 1920s before it popped.

    Mitch McConnell and Rick Scott and Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are all in bed with the Chinese Communist Party.

  34. The Fed Is Going to Do Nothing to Stop Inflation

    The Federal Reserve Bank is a privately-controlled financial entity that exists solely to funnel loot and power to the globalizer billionaire plutocrats and the multi-millionaires and the greedy, money-grubbing Upper Middle Class Snot Brats.

    The Federal Reserve Bank is an organized crime syndicate that works with other globalized central banker shysters to concentrate loot and power in fewer and fewer hands while using mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration to attack and destroy cultural cohesion and nation-state sovereignty.

    The Federal Reserve Bank electronically conjures up dollars out of thin air and the common usage of printing for that act of electronic currency creation could also be called digitally creating the dollars.

    • Replies: @Bill
    @Charles Pewitt

    Jay doesn't look that good these days.

    Replies: @Charles Pewitt

  35. I continue to be amazed and thankful for the Unz review, probably the freest and most honest forum on the net today. Don’t know if Ron Unz is exclusively behind its inscrutable reputation but his own contributions are fantastic and I’ve read and learned a lot from Ron., a man who is remarkable among our so called “intellects” today, because of his intellectual honesty and brave attitude. God bless the Unz review for continuing to do a tough job..

  36. That Harvard guy out in Sausilito who goes on and on about liquidity driving markets and asset bubbles reminds me of that song where that guy warbles on about on and on and he keeps on crying and I guess it’s on and on and the computers keep on buying and the Fed keeps on trying to coordinate its balance sheet with the S & P 500 heading north northeast forever and all the rest and the Federal Reserve Bank is a plaything for the globalizer plutocrats and the Upper Middle Class Snot Brats.

    Didn’t Van Damme and Andrew Jackson warn us about these globalizer banker plutocrats and how they treat the rest of us like slaves and peasants?

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
  37. Gold is up 6x since 2002, from $300 to $1800, a 500% increase. Prices have gone up 46% in that span.

    So gold is already way up.

    This is an interesting chart:
    https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

    Gold is near the high end of its range in inflation-adjusted terms. That doesn’t make it especially appealing I think.

    Real assets that also earn a yield seem to be better. A rental house, like gold, is also a physical asset whose price floats upward with inflation. But the house throws off rental income at the same time.

    Stocks too are claims on assets whose price floats upward with inflation and which throw off income at the same time.

    If one must buy gold, it should be physical and not a fund for 3 reasons:

    (1) Taxes you have to pay on phantom gains (gains due to inflation that aren’t real gains)

    (2) Management fees on the fund. Even if the fund fee is 0.5%, that is a big chunk of 3 or 4% inflation.

    (3) In a true crisis — financial system collapse in other words — it seems possible that there will be delays or failures affecting your ability to get the money back out.

    Can folks reply with ideas of physical assets that also give you a yield? That seems like a great thing to think about. Farmland?

    • Replies: @Catdog
    @DanHessinMD

    The CDC declared that renters didn't have to pay for a year. Does buying land to rent still looks good to you? If you are wealthy enough to own rental properties without going into debt, maybe.

    Replies: @Wency

    , @DanHessinMD
    @DanHessinMD

    I key aspect is that yields put a floor under the price of assets. An asset with a yield should never be worthless.

    Bitcoin on the other hand, has no yield. It could potentially go to zero if a better coin comes along.

  38. @DanHessinMD
    Gold is up 6x since 2002, from $300 to $1800, a 500% increase. Prices have gone up 46% in that span.

    So gold is already way up.

    This is an interesting chart:
    https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

    Gold is near the high end of its range in inflation-adjusted terms. That doesn't make it especially appealing I think.

    Real assets that also earn a yield seem to be better. A rental house, like gold, is also a physical asset whose price floats upward with inflation. But the house throws off rental income at the same time.

    Stocks too are claims on assets whose price floats upward with inflation and which throw off income at the same time.

    If one must buy gold, it should be physical and not a fund for 3 reasons:

    (1) Taxes you have to pay on phantom gains (gains due to inflation that aren't real gains)

    (2) Management fees on the fund. Even if the fund fee is 0.5%, that is a big chunk of 3 or 4% inflation.

    (3) In a true crisis -- financial system collapse in other words -- it seems possible that there will be delays or failures affecting your ability to get the money back out.

    Can folks reply with ideas of physical assets that also give you a yield? That seems like a great thing to think about. Farmland?

    Replies: @Catdog, @DanHessinMD

    The CDC declared that renters didn’t have to pay for a year. Does buying land to rent still looks good to you? If you are wealthy enough to own rental properties without going into debt, maybe.

    • Replies: @Wency
    @Catdog

    Residential real estate notoriously has the worst tenants of any real estate category (though it's also the easiest sort of real estate to get into, but that might just mean more competition). The tenants take bad care of the property and also have the most government protections. Of course, it's also a category that's evergreen, that we know for sure isn't going away -- e-commerce and work-from-home can continue to take share, but everyone needs to live somewhere (though not necessarily in the place where you built housing).

    The people I know who made fortunes off of real estate (without being developers or otherwise in the industry themselves) just speculated intelligently on relatively undeveloped land in good locations near Interstates outside of growing metropolises and held it for decades. Of course, oftentimes this might not include much of a yield (if any), though in some cases it might be farmland or timberland and do something for you.

    Timber has been a crappy investment in recent years (unlike farmland) but it has the advantage that the overhead is basically zero and it can be cleared (for profit) and developed at a moment's notice.

  39. @DanHessinMD
    Gold is up 6x since 2002, from $300 to $1800, a 500% increase. Prices have gone up 46% in that span.

    So gold is already way up.

    This is an interesting chart:
    https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

    Gold is near the high end of its range in inflation-adjusted terms. That doesn't make it especially appealing I think.

    Real assets that also earn a yield seem to be better. A rental house, like gold, is also a physical asset whose price floats upward with inflation. But the house throws off rental income at the same time.

    Stocks too are claims on assets whose price floats upward with inflation and which throw off income at the same time.

    If one must buy gold, it should be physical and not a fund for 3 reasons:

    (1) Taxes you have to pay on phantom gains (gains due to inflation that aren't real gains)

    (2) Management fees on the fund. Even if the fund fee is 0.5%, that is a big chunk of 3 or 4% inflation.

    (3) In a true crisis -- financial system collapse in other words -- it seems possible that there will be delays or failures affecting your ability to get the money back out.

    Can folks reply with ideas of physical assets that also give you a yield? That seems like a great thing to think about. Farmland?

    Replies: @Catdog, @DanHessinMD

    I key aspect is that yields put a floor under the price of assets. An asset with a yield should never be worthless.

    Bitcoin on the other hand, has no yield. It could potentially go to zero if a better coin comes along.

    • Agree: V. K. Ovelund
  40. @Realist
    @Charles Pewitt

    Ninety percent of U. S. citizens are taking it in the ass, while the ten percent live it up. How long will the stupid population put up with it?

    Replies: @Daniel H

    Ninety percent of U. S. citizens are taking it in the ass, while the ten percent live it up. How long will the stupid population put up with it?

    That’s an important point you made. It’s not 1% or 0.001% that benefit very much off the current regime, it is approximately 10%. In that 10% I would include not just the possessors of vast sums of capital but also the factotums of capital (bankers, lawyers, “management consultants”, banker back office, ALL government workers (local, state, fed), et. al). This 10% is a formidable adversary. Basically, government serves their interests and at best ignores the rest of us, at worst conspires to harm us. The 10% are doing well. They see no reason for fundamental change and they punch way above their proportionate weight. I don’t see a way out.

    • Replies: @Realist
    @Daniel H


    They see no reason for fundamental change and they punch way above their proportionate weight. I don’t see a way out.
     
    But there is strength in numbers...if only the 90% wake up.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

  41. In response to prescient nonsense

    https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-biggest-accomplishments-and-failures-heading-into-2020-2019-12

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/11/opinion/fact-check-trump.html

    https://townhall.com/columnists/waynegrudem/2020/08/24/30-good-things-president-trump-has-done-for-america-n2574849

    I won’t debate these, suffice it to say

    1. some I agree with some I don’t
    2. in our system it usually takes two terms to have made deep long lasting accomplishments that
    significantly change the same

    we are light years in pushing back killing children in the womb. That I for pone applaud the president’s efforts that came at no small political cost
    — campaign promise —

    purported prescient commentary — nonsense

  42. @Catdog
    @DanHessinMD

    The CDC declared that renters didn't have to pay for a year. Does buying land to rent still looks good to you? If you are wealthy enough to own rental properties without going into debt, maybe.

    Replies: @Wency

    Residential real estate notoriously has the worst tenants of any real estate category (though it’s also the easiest sort of real estate to get into, but that might just mean more competition). The tenants take bad care of the property and also have the most government protections. Of course, it’s also a category that’s evergreen, that we know for sure isn’t going away — e-commerce and work-from-home can continue to take share, but everyone needs to live somewhere (though not necessarily in the place where you built housing).

    The people I know who made fortunes off of real estate (without being developers or otherwise in the industry themselves) just speculated intelligently on relatively undeveloped land in good locations near Interstates outside of growing metropolises and held it for decades. Of course, oftentimes this might not include much of a yield (if any), though in some cases it might be farmland or timberland and do something for you.

    Timber has been a crappy investment in recent years (unlike farmland) but it has the advantage that the overhead is basically zero and it can be cleared (for profit) and developed at a moment’s notice.

  43. Of course they don’t. Impoverishing the American people is deeply lucrative for them.

  44. @Daniel H
    @Realist


    Ninety percent of U. S. citizens are taking it in the ass, while the ten percent live it up. How long will the stupid population put up with it?
     
    That's an important point you made. It's not 1% or 0.001% that benefit very much off the current regime, it is approximately 10%. In that 10% I would include not just the possessors of vast sums of capital but also the factotums of capital (bankers, lawyers, "management consultants", banker back office, ALL government workers (local, state, fed), et. al). This 10% is a formidable adversary. Basically, government serves their interests and at best ignores the rest of us, at worst conspires to harm us. The 10% are doing well. They see no reason for fundamental change and they punch way above their proportionate weight. I don't see a way out.

    Replies: @Realist

    They see no reason for fundamental change and they punch way above their proportionate weight. I don’t see a way out.

    But there is strength in numbers…if only the 90% wake up.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @Realist

    I think the 90% are awake. But adrift. They're a rabble without leaders. The last one did nothing for them but didn't crap on them.

    You'd need to be a minor billionaire, say, 10billion, with a goal to use that money to fight for the rabble in the hopes of taking over. It's all too obvious what happens to the tyranny-receiving end of anarchy-tyranny, so unless they're suicidal, they'll wait for a champion. If a real one with skin in the game arises for them, he will have an army. The switch from 1928 to 1932 is illustrative.

  45. @Chrisnonymous
    @Charles Pewitt

    $200B friends and that slug on the left can't even be bothered to put on a tux. I wonder what champagne Bezos serves at his parties. I love champagne, but in the last decade, I think the quality has dropped across the board. I suspect it is due to the Asian market. China is eating our lunch and drinking our champagne. Bastards!

    Replies: @Charles Pewitt, @Supply and Demand, @Bill

    You have to pay extra to buy your bodyguard a tux. The Fed has other priorities.

  46. @The Alarmist
    @Charles Pewitt

    Guy on the left looks like security, or maybe a low-level Congress Critter... I can’t quite make out the lapel pin.

    Replies: @Bill

    Look at his ear.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    @Bill

    Good spot ... I needed to zoom in to see it.

  47. @Charles Pewitt
    The Fed Is Going to Do Nothing to Stop Inflation

    The Federal Reserve Bank is a privately-controlled financial entity that exists solely to funnel loot and power to the globalizer billionaire plutocrats and the multi-millionaires and the greedy, money-grubbing Upper Middle Class Snot Brats.

    The Federal Reserve Bank is an organized crime syndicate that works with other globalized central banker shysters to concentrate loot and power in fewer and fewer hands while using mass legal immigration and mass illegal immigration to attack and destroy cultural cohesion and nation-state sovereignty.

    The Federal Reserve Bank electronically conjures up dollars out of thin air and the common usage of printing for that act of electronic currency creation could also be called digitally creating the dollars.

    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1396903110371643401?s=20

    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1396891864511533060?s=20

    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1390345067811024898?s=20

    Replies: @Bill

    Jay doesn’t look that good these days.

    • Replies: @Charles Pewitt
    @Bill

    Jay doesn’t look that good these days.

    I say:

    Sometimes Jay Powell seems despondently sad about all the propaganda and lies he has to resort to to somewhat cover up the fact that the privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank is responsible for widening the wealth gap and the income gap and the fact that the Fed is deliberately implementing monetary policies that concentrate loot and power in fewer and fewer hands and that the Fed is rewarding the billionaires and the multi-millionaires and the Upper Middle Class Snot Brats with ill-gotten gains from all the asset bubbles the Fed is creating.

    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1393642082674298884?s=20

    Othertimes Jay Powell seems happy as a butcher's dog.

    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1390299977973309449?s=20

  48. @Bill
    @The Alarmist

    Look at his ear.

    Replies: @The Alarmist

    Good spot … I needed to zoom in to see it.

  49. @LondonBob
    Gold is up from 1200 to 1900 already, charting out a perfect cup and handle formation which points to $3000 gold in a few years. Interest rates will rise, killing much else, but will remain negative in real terms. Commodity price rises will eat up what little disposable income people have. Need a new fence put in, I wonder what the quote will be compared to last year.

    After the far more dangerous Spanish flu there were stubborn supply problems and inflation. The green nonsense is also an issue now, the disastrous impact of this is beginning to have is being studiously ignored.

    Here we brought in universal credit, much to the left's fury, the purpose of which was to ensure working was always the better financial choice, this isn't to be conflated with UBI. Has been a success despite the inevitable teething problems when it was introduced.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/iain-duncan-smith-s-speech-on-welfare-reform---full-text

    Replies: @Twinkie, @Mulga Mumblebrain

    Anyone who is an apologist for the loathsome thug IDS deserves utter contempt.

  50. @A123

    People don’t realize how dependent they are to highly complex, “just in time,” (low redundancy) supply chain for all manners of goods,

    A highly complex, “efficient” supply and storage system optimized for extracting every penny is extremely vulnerable to external shocks. That’s why governments of yore that had experienced disasters and wars believed in redundancy and procured accordingly. Those days are gone.
     

    The shift from restaurant to at-home dining highlighted this problem. Industrial buyers purchase milk in bags not labelled for retail sale. The lack of capacity to ramp up production of 1-gallon plastic jugs meant there was no way to expand quantity going to the retail market.

    Any business dependant on containers carried by the Ever Given is in serious trouble. The vessel is still impounded by the Egypt government.
    ______

    A short supply chain rebounds much faster than a lengthy one. This requires expanding domestic:
    • Raw material extraction
    • Manufacturing

    USMCA is better than NAFTA, but much more needs to be done. Right now, the biggest problem distorting supply chains is CCP exploitation. And, you can be sure that the Harris/Biden regime will make things worse.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Charles Pewitt, @Mulga Mumblebrain, @Yellowface Anon

    The Sabbat Goy racist returns to smear China. It must get boring, but servitude is servitude, and its Zionazi Masters hate and fear the Chinese, who have the audacity to treat Jews as fellow human beings, not the Gods Upon the Earth that they believe themselves to be.

  51. One thing our Democratic friends maybe haven’t taken into account is that Republican presidents no longer even-keel the economy for them so they can hit the throttles when they take power.

    For instance, in mid 2019 there was an inverted Treasury yield curve but Trump bullied the Fed into lowering interest rates. And then came COVID.

    None of the Democrats in high places today have been around when someone had to make hard choices. So we can expect them to flub the coming emergency, big time. They will make the mistakes of Little Ben Bernanke, who flubbed the Lehman Bros. failure, look like a walk in the park.

    • Agree: V. K. Ovelund
  52. @Charles Pewitt
    UBI pays people whether or not they work. So there is a difference.

    I say:

    Universal Basic Income or Federal Reserve Bank Guaranteed Monthly Income or Pewitt Conjured Loot Portion, it don't matter what you call it, it should be framed as a POLITICAL TOOL to dislodge the Ruling Class of the American Empire. UBI is about RAW POLITICAL POWER and not economics. Politics first and always and the power to create money and detonate nukes is POLITICAL POWER.

    The Fed is now electronically laundering conjured up currency through the FIRE sector -- Finance, Insurance, Real Estate -- and the Fed has created massive soon-to-pop asset bubbles in stocks and bonds and real estate.

    The Fed should be nationalized and the Fed funds rate raised to 6 percent and that will pop the asset bubbles in a split second and the Fed should be doling out the cash directly instead of laundering the loot through the banks and the FIRE sector and the debt-based fiat currency system needs restraining anyways.

    I wrote this in August of 2020:

    UBI or the Pewitt Conjured Loot Portion(PCLP) is about raw power and who has it. A UBI or PCLP will allow the historic American nation or the European Christian ancestral core the ability to dislodge from power the evil and treasonous JEW/WASP ruling class from power.

    The Pewitt Conjured Loot Portion(PCLP) will pay each American who has all blood ancestry born in colonial America or the USA before 1924 a cool ten thousand dollars a month. The US Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank shall work together to conjure up the cash out of thin air, just like the ruling class is doing now.

    Sam Francis said it’s all about the ruling classes and Sam was right. A UBI or PCLP will create the conditions whereby tens of trillions of dollars and land and property and licenses and other assets can be severed from the ownership and control of the current corrupt and illegitimate JEW/WASP ruling class members of the American Empire and doled out to the patriotic and honorable old stocker members of the European Christian ancestral core.

    UBI or PCLP is about raw political power; it’s not about economics.

    The ability to control the central bank is the true power and it must be contested by the old stocker members of the historic American nation.

    The Federal Reserve Bank must be nationalized and the JEW/WASP ruling class and its minions must be financially liquidated and its members must be forcibly exiled to a hot and humid and nasty part of sub-Saharan Africa. All this must be done legally, of course.

    William the Conqueror thought he got screwed out of his rightful inheritance, and the JEW/WASP ruling class of the American Empire is screwing over the decent and patriotic members of the old stocker historic American nation. Of course, horrible treasonous sleazebag old stockers like those in the Bush Organized Crime Syndicate are examples of old stocker evil globalizer treasonite ruling class nation-wreckers.

    Repudiate All Debt and Financially Liquidate The Plutocrats And Their Stooges.

    GOD BLESS AMERICA!

    https://www.unz.com/anepigone/shaking-the-money-tree/#comment-4134922

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    UBI can be the great equalizer or the biggest chain to the monetary-financial system.

    Getting paid and saving in precious metals have a better return than fiat or CBDC UBI (which value can also be inflated away with all the money-printing needed), and it’s firmly outside the eyes of the state. Crypto too, but more volatile.

  53. @A123

    People don’t realize how dependent they are to highly complex, “just in time,” (low redundancy) supply chain for all manners of goods,

    A highly complex, “efficient” supply and storage system optimized for extracting every penny is extremely vulnerable to external shocks. That’s why governments of yore that had experienced disasters and wars believed in redundancy and procured accordingly. Those days are gone.
     

    The shift from restaurant to at-home dining highlighted this problem. Industrial buyers purchase milk in bags not labelled for retail sale. The lack of capacity to ramp up production of 1-gallon plastic jugs meant there was no way to expand quantity going to the retail market.

    Any business dependant on containers carried by the Ever Given is in serious trouble. The vessel is still impounded by the Egypt government.
    ______

    A short supply chain rebounds much faster than a lengthy one. This requires expanding domestic:
    • Raw material extraction
    • Manufacturing

    USMCA is better than NAFTA, but much more needs to be done. Right now, the biggest problem distorting supply chains is CCP exploitation. And, you can be sure that the Harris/Biden regime will make things worse.

    PEACE 😇

    Replies: @Charles Pewitt, @Mulga Mumblebrain, @Yellowface Anon

    Why would you want supply chains fully within the US when it’s being Balkanized into NY and Cali marching on WEF’s tune, Texas and Florida being what remains of old Americana, and the rest chaos?

    Ideally the supply chains should start out to be short enough to be contained within a locality (a county). If any industrial material and product can’t be done, use more primitive substitutes. Then, as things stabilize between each locality, extend it without creating nodes that can be centralized. But never a global supply chain.

    • Replies: @A123
    @Yellowface Anon

    Creating a supply chain free of NY and California would be desirable. However bringing it down to county level is impractical. There are too many things that have to be sourced nationally.

    Even weaning off of China is something that cannot be done instantaneously. It would better for both the U.S. and China to bring trade down to zero over a decade.

    PEACE 😇

  54. @bayviking
    @Rosie

    It does seem strange at first that blue and red States with opposite policies have similar outcomes. But pandemic control requires a national policy because of our open borders. Many Asian countries, New Zealand and a few African countries have gained control quickly of the outbreak, when compared to the United States with harsh national policies. The only change that has improved outcomes here has been the vaccines. This is controversial, strangely because the same people that love Trump appear to hate his fast tracked vaccine and have almost certainly been vaccinated for polio, smallpox and other diseases, just to attend school.

    DeSantis's policies are driven exclusively by what's best for business, not human health or pandemic control. The latest release of AARP’s Nursing Home COVID-19 Dashboard shows that Florida is trending higher than the national average for new reported cases of the virus. Vaccination rates among Florida’s long-term care workers remains very low at 38%,” said AARP Florida State Director Jeff Johnson. “With new AARP data indicating Florida is trending higher than the national average for new COVID-19 cases. So DeSantis’s policies are having a negative impact on the large elderly population in Florida. It is ridiculous to pretend that DeSantis is on to some higher level of data driven scientific thinking. Republican control of Florida is a long running tragedy based on gerrymandering, voter purging, software tampering and ballot invalidation.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Jtgw

    It’s because COVID mortality average out to be close to normal flu season mortality. Blue state (and more or less those adopted by Canada, the EU, most other countries in the American camp) strategies predicated on reduction of transmission and overemphasis on vaccines above all else, harm living standards in the middle run and creates a segregated and polarized population. And finally many don’t lose sight of the role of WEF and WHO in using the crisis to undermine national sovereignty n health policy, not just in the US but everywhere.

  55. @Magic Dirt Resident

    People don’t realize how dependent they are to highly complex, “just in time,” (low redundancy) supply chain for all manners of goods, including not just food, but also lifesaving medicine, which keeps literally millions of people alive without much thought today.
     
    I can attest to this important point from Twinkie. I work in quality control at a pharmaceutical manufacturing plant, and our release dates (to send the product to the shipping department once all testing has been completed) are usually within a few days of the out of stock date. This means if we have a delay of even a few days that particular product dosage will be unavailable in pharmacies. Considering that my company's main products are statins, blood pressure treatments, and thyroid treatments, a lot of people could be in trouble if we miss our delivery dates. It would definitely be smart to have a bigger buffer there- and it would make my job less stressful!

    Replies: @Chrisnonymous, @Rosie, @Twinkie

    And all that is in the absence of panic-buying and hoarding behavior, which often exacerbate shortages in the event of an external shock. Witness the recent disruption of gasoline supply on the East Coast and the attendant behaviors by some people:

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @Twinkie

    Good lord. I cannot even begin to imagine the inferno those people were risking. Keep one five gallon can for emergencies and work around the rest. Don't turn your SUV into Dresden, 1945.

    Replies: @V. K. Ovelund

  56. @Arclight
    @Twinkie

    This is accurate - my company has also seen the same 300% plus increase in random length lumber, which affects framing, exteriors, doors, etc. Plastic pipe is twice as expensive, there is a shortage of drywall and mud, OSB sheathing is up 7x and is a 6 week lead time item, and the shipping containers it all arrives in from China are up 3x.

    There is some hope that things will loosen up a bit in Q4, but there is going to be a new and much more expensive normal all the same. Our leaders obviously are hoping to inflate away our massive borrowing, and they will also be under enormous pressure to keep sending checks to the plebs as the temporary sense of prosperity induced by sending out stimmy checks fades away and the public starts to feel the bite of rising costs across the board on their non-inflated take home pay.

    Replies: @Twinkie

    There is some hope that things will loosen up a bit in Q4, but there is going to be a new and much more expensive normal all the same.

    In the region where I live, the housing prices have gone insane again. Prices are up 10-20% over last year and expected to increase another 10% in the coming year. There is some building of new homes, but there are constraints to new supply, because half of the county is reserved for green space and can’t be built upon (a large part of my own backyard is under a county conservation agreement).

    A nurse I know recently sold her townhouse and had 30+ offers the first day (she and her realtor raised the price and re-listed and still sold it within days). Of course, she then had trouble buying her “upgrade” single family home. Every one she looked at under $1 million had dozens of offers, often cash, all waiving contingencies. She finally bought one from an old widow moving to live with her daughter – the house hadn’t been maintained for years and she is basically going to rip out everything and re-do it. She wasn’t going to find one in “move-in” condition for her budget and location of choice.

  57. @anon
    @Wency

    There’s a lot of Hanlon’s Razor going on here, with people refusing to believe that anything as supposedly shadowy as the CIA could possibly make that big a mistake.

    Do not have the reference handy, but the CIA consistently overestimated Soviet industrial capacity and capabilities for decades. When the Berlin Wall came down and anyone could see just what the Warsaw Pact looked like, it was a real shock to many people.

    "Hyper-competent CIA" is a myth. Maybe it was true 70+ years ago, but I'm skeptical.

    Replies: @Mark G.

    “Hyper-competent CIA” is a myth. Maybe it was true 70+ years ago, but I’m skeptical.

    Sixty years ago was the CIA-led Bay of Pigs Invasion. That wasn’t “hyper-competent”.

    • Replies: @Wency
    @Mark G.

    Not only that, but the CIA actually backed Castro during the 1950s. And then later it tried and failed repeatedly to kill him.

    The total failure of CIA operations against Cuba, right off the US shore, should tell you that when the CIA succeeded at coups, it was pushing against an open door most of the time. At least some number of coups for which the CIA gets credit probably would have happened anyway. And note that the US could passively aid the overthrow of its enemies by simply making it understood that it would lavish foreign aid on any anti-Communist who overthrows someone the US doesn't like -- you don't necessarily need a CIA for this.

    Replies: @nebulafox

  58. Shadowstats has a track record, unlike every rando commenter / poaster. Instead of reading what Joe said to Bob who said something to Powell…

    http://www.shadowstats.com/

    Read and learn.

  59. @Caspar von Everec
    This will go in one of two ways:

    1. Complete techno feudalism.:

    The mass inflation completely wipes out the middle and working classes and reduces them to penury. Mass bankruptcies occur. What little remains of small businesses are wiped out by the depression and big corporations like Amazon and walmart take control of 100% of the market share.

    Wages fall to nothing and most of the land and property are bought up by the banks and finace sharks. Most people now own nothing and rent everything.

    Degeneracy goes into overdrive as all drugs are de facto legalized, alcoholism and suicide skyrockets. The last sensible white people flee to Latin Ameirca and Europe before the mass violence begins. Blacks are fully unleashed by the central state on the popluation in order to keep in a state of terror and mayhem.

    You are not allowed to touch the black rapist, arsonit or marauder lest you be thrown in prison by the local Jewish DA for terrorism and hate crime.

    2. End of Empire

    The situation gets so bad that law and order fall apart. The ability of the government to control the country collapses as people switch to bartering, self sufficient local economies and community policing. The US military ceases to be a fighting force as its paid shit and all the good men leave and the vacant positions are filled trannies, antifa druggies, black criminals and cartel members.

    Gov salaries across the board fall and the state stops functioning. The over-financialized economy is wiped out and due to the fall of the dollar, the import baed economy crumbles. Unemployment rises to 30-40%.

    Gov has no ability to fix this with UBI. In the chaos, parts of the US secede to escape the chaos. Local counties band together and secede from the union to escape ever more punishing taxes and FBI/police state repression.

    The US military in a state of shambles due to demoralization and anarchy is unable to stop it. Large part of the US elite no longer want any part of this ruin.

    The US falls apart as parts of it secede. DC is forced to call its armies home and slash the military as the Empire ends.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Why not the worst of both scenarios – total societal destruction?

    And while the WEF is at it, why leave the EU, the other Western offshoots and most of Latin America intact?

    America wanted to be a New Rome – and now its empire sees what comes after Rome.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @Yellowface Anon


    now its empire sees what comes after Rome.
     
    Byzantium? They were around as a serious force for about 600 years after Rome fell in the West, and 977 years in total.

    Replies: @nebulafox

  60. @Mark G.
    @anon


    “Hyper-competent CIA” is a myth. Maybe it was true 70+ years ago, but I’m skeptical.
     
    Sixty years ago was the CIA-led Bay of Pigs Invasion. That wasn't "hyper-competent".

    Replies: @Wency

    Not only that, but the CIA actually backed Castro during the 1950s. And then later it tried and failed repeatedly to kill him.

    The total failure of CIA operations against Cuba, right off the US shore, should tell you that when the CIA succeeded at coups, it was pushing against an open door most of the time. At least some number of coups for which the CIA gets credit probably would have happened anyway. And note that the US could passively aid the overthrow of its enemies by simply making it understood that it would lavish foreign aid on any anti-Communist who overthrows someone the US doesn’t like — you don’t necessarily need a CIA for this.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
    @Wency

    Cuba, like Israel and the former East Germany, also really punches above its geographic weight when it comes to effective intelligence. More often than not, the really nutty exiles in South Florida were on the DGI's rolls.

    >And note that the US could passively aid the overthrow of its enemies by simply making it understood that it would lavish foreign aid on any anti-Communist who overthrows someone the US doesn’t like — you don’t necessarily need a CIA for this.

    It's important to not overestimate the US role in the domestic politics of 3rd World countries during the Cold War. Every now and again, you did have coups that were mostly American pushed, but they were the exception, not the rule.

    Replies: @Twinkie

  61. A123 says:
    @Yellowface Anon
    @A123

    Why would you want supply chains fully within the US when it's being Balkanized into NY and Cali marching on WEF's tune, Texas and Florida being what remains of old Americana, and the rest chaos?

    Ideally the supply chains should start out to be short enough to be contained within a locality (a county). If any industrial material and product can't be done, use more primitive substitutes. Then, as things stabilize between each locality, extend it without creating nodes that can be centralized. But never a global supply chain.

    Replies: @A123

    Creating a supply chain free of NY and California would be desirable. However bringing it down to county level is impractical. There are too many things that have to be sourced nationally.

    Even weaning off of China is something that cannot be done instantaneously. It would better for both the U.S. and China to bring trade down to zero over a decade.

    PEACE 😇

  62. @Bill
    @Charles Pewitt

    Jay doesn't look that good these days.

    Replies: @Charles Pewitt

    Jay doesn’t look that good these days.

    I say:

    Sometimes Jay Powell seems despondently sad about all the propaganda and lies he has to resort to to somewhat cover up the fact that the privately-controlled Federal Reserve Bank is responsible for widening the wealth gap and the income gap and the fact that the Fed is deliberately implementing monetary policies that concentrate loot and power in fewer and fewer hands and that the Fed is rewarding the billionaires and the multi-millionaires and the Upper Middle Class Snot Brats with ill-gotten gains from all the asset bubbles the Fed is creating.

    Othertimes Jay Powell seems happy as a butcher’s dog.

  63. @Twinkie
    @Magic Dirt Resident

    And all that is in the absence of panic-buying and hoarding behavior, which often exacerbate shortages in the event of an external shock. Witness the recent disruption of gasoline supply on the East Coast and the attendant behaviors by some people:

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/wp-content/uploads/Gasoline-Hoarder-Gas-Cans-Back-of-Car-Unsourced-Image-052021.jpg

    https://am22.mediaite.com/tms/cnt/uploads/2021/05/pipeline-gas-shortage-hoarding-plastic-bags.jpg

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

    Good lord. I cannot even begin to imagine the inferno those people were risking. Keep one five gallon can for emergencies and work around the rest. Don’t turn your SUV into Dresden, 1945.

    • Agree: Twinkie
    • Replies: @V. K. Ovelund
    @TomSchmidt


    Don’t turn your SUV into Dresden, 1945.
     
    Funny you should mention it. I've been restoring a '45 Dresden. The Dresden is in my garage and still needs an original radiator cap. Have you got one I can buy off you?

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

  64. @Realist
    @Daniel H


    They see no reason for fundamental change and they punch way above their proportionate weight. I don’t see a way out.
     
    But there is strength in numbers...if only the 90% wake up.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

    I think the 90% are awake. But adrift. They’re a rabble without leaders. The last one did nothing for them but didn’t crap on them.

    You’d need to be a minor billionaire, say, 10billion, with a goal to use that money to fight for the rabble in the hopes of taking over. It’s all too obvious what happens to the tyranny-receiving end of anarchy-tyranny, so unless they’re suicidal, they’ll wait for a champion. If a real one with skin in the game arises for them, he will have an army. The switch from 1928 to 1932 is illustrative.

    • Thanks: Realist
  65. @Yellowface Anon
    @Caspar von Everec

    Why not the worst of both scenarios - total societal destruction?

    And while the WEF is at it, why leave the EU, the other Western offshoots and most of Latin America intact?

    America wanted to be a New Rome - and now its empire sees what comes after Rome.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

    now its empire sees what comes after Rome.

    Byzantium? They were around as a serious force for about 600 years after Rome fell in the West, and 977 years in total.

    • Agree: Twinkie
    • Replies: @nebulafox
    @TomSchmidt

    I take Peter Heather's line that, practically speaking, the Byzantine empire was more another successor state than anything else. (Don't dare tell a Byzantine that, though!) They still had a better claim on Romanness than anybody else did-fundamental Roman political structures survived in Constantinople, for example, and of course, the unbroken line of emperors back to Augustus-but it was really quite a different cultural construct by the Middle Ages.

    But even if you take this line, that still means the Roman Empire survived in its "classical" form for 150 more years after the West fell. It was an increasingly Christianized empire, but for all intents and purposes, Constantinople under Justinian was still very much an "East Rome" place. And it took a succession of truly destabilizing, unprecedented shocks for the collapse of the 7th Century to happen: Justinian's overexpansion, the counter-productive pummeling with Persia, economic collapse, and above all else, bubonic plague, all right in time for Arab society to restructure itself under new social arrangements simultaneously with Slavic migration into the Balkans. Most states wouldn't have survived that at all.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @Yellowface Anon

  66. @TomSchmidt
    @Twinkie

    Good lord. I cannot even begin to imagine the inferno those people were risking. Keep one five gallon can for emergencies and work around the rest. Don't turn your SUV into Dresden, 1945.

    Replies: @V. K. Ovelund

    Don’t turn your SUV into Dresden, 1945.

    Funny you should mention it. I’ve been restoring a ’45 Dresden. The Dresden is in my garage and still needs an original radiator cap. Have you got one I can buy off you?

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @V. K. Ovelund

    No, but I might be able to get access to a CNC if you've got specs. I'd need to trade favors.

    What is a Dresden 45?

    Replies: @V. K. Ovelund

  67. @Wency
    @Mark G.

    Not only that, but the CIA actually backed Castro during the 1950s. And then later it tried and failed repeatedly to kill him.

    The total failure of CIA operations against Cuba, right off the US shore, should tell you that when the CIA succeeded at coups, it was pushing against an open door most of the time. At least some number of coups for which the CIA gets credit probably would have happened anyway. And note that the US could passively aid the overthrow of its enemies by simply making it understood that it would lavish foreign aid on any anti-Communist who overthrows someone the US doesn't like -- you don't necessarily need a CIA for this.

    Replies: @nebulafox

    Cuba, like Israel and the former East Germany, also really punches above its geographic weight when it comes to effective intelligence. More often than not, the really nutty exiles in South Florida were on the DGI’s rolls.

    >And note that the US could passively aid the overthrow of its enemies by simply making it understood that it would lavish foreign aid on any anti-Communist who overthrows someone the US doesn’t like — you don’t necessarily need a CIA for this.

    It’s important to not overestimate the US role in the domestic politics of 3rd World countries during the Cold War. Every now and again, you did have coups that were mostly American pushed, but they were the exception, not the rule.

    • Agree: Twinkie
    • Replies: @Twinkie
    @nebulafox


    It’s important to not overestimate the US role in the domestic politics of 3rd World countries during the Cold War. Every now and again, you did have coups that were mostly American pushed, but they were the exception, not the rule.
     
    Third world taxi drivers were always blaming the CIA for local bridge collapses.

    Most of the time, the CIA - and the USG in general - reacted to coups and large political changes in the Third World rather than being causal agents. But it was in the interests of the former to retconn a strong hand.

    A book title on the U.S.-South Korea relations during the Carter years says it all - “Massive Entanglement, Marginal Influence.” We are just awesome at pouring money in and getting little back in return (see Afghanistan for a recent example - I call it “bricks of cash as foreign and military policy”).

    Replies: @nebulafox

  68. @TomSchmidt
    @Yellowface Anon


    now its empire sees what comes after Rome.
     
    Byzantium? They were around as a serious force for about 600 years after Rome fell in the West, and 977 years in total.

    Replies: @nebulafox

    I take Peter Heather’s line that, practically speaking, the Byzantine empire was more another successor state than anything else. (Don’t dare tell a Byzantine that, though!) They still had a better claim on Romanness than anybody else did-fundamental Roman political structures survived in Constantinople, for example, and of course, the unbroken line of emperors back to Augustus-but it was really quite a different cultural construct by the Middle Ages.

    But even if you take this line, that still means the Roman Empire survived in its “classical” form for 150 more years after the West fell. It was an increasingly Christianized empire, but for all intents and purposes, Constantinople under Justinian was still very much an “East Rome” place. And it took a succession of truly destabilizing, unprecedented shocks for the collapse of the 7th Century to happen: Justinian’s overexpansion, the counter-productive pummeling with Persia, economic collapse, and above all else, bubonic plague, all right in time for Arab society to restructure itself under new social arrangements simultaneously with Slavic migration into the Balkans. Most states wouldn’t have survived that at all.

    • Agree: Twinkie
    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @nebulafox

    One recalls the admonition that they never monkeyed with the coinage, like the West did. A lot of resiliency in that. I know the Japanese emperor is the oldest ruling line in the world, but the 1100 years of Byzantium has to be the longest that a state survived in history, from 330 to 1453.

    I don't want a Roman collapse for USG. I want Berlin, 1945. Trials. Executions. Destruction of the ruling party.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    , @Yellowface Anon
    @nebulafox

    That'll be some of the states which are trying to keep the old federal vision alive, e.g. Florida, Texas, Idaho, in a new chaotic environment.

    You still have (techno-)feudalism outside these territories, or outright demodernization.

  69. @nebulafox
    @Wency

    Cuba, like Israel and the former East Germany, also really punches above its geographic weight when it comes to effective intelligence. More often than not, the really nutty exiles in South Florida were on the DGI's rolls.

    >And note that the US could passively aid the overthrow of its enemies by simply making it understood that it would lavish foreign aid on any anti-Communist who overthrows someone the US doesn’t like — you don’t necessarily need a CIA for this.

    It's important to not overestimate the US role in the domestic politics of 3rd World countries during the Cold War. Every now and again, you did have coups that were mostly American pushed, but they were the exception, not the rule.

    Replies: @Twinkie

    It’s important to not overestimate the US role in the domestic politics of 3rd World countries during the Cold War. Every now and again, you did have coups that were mostly American pushed, but they were the exception, not the rule.

    Third world taxi drivers were always blaming the CIA for local bridge collapses.

    Most of the time, the CIA – and the USG in general – reacted to coups and large political changes in the Third World rather than being causal agents. But it was in the interests of the former to retconn a strong hand.

    A book title on the U.S.-South Korea relations during the Carter years says it all – “Massive Entanglement, Marginal Influence.” We are just awesome at pouring money in and getting little back in return (see Afghanistan for a recent example – I call it “bricks of cash as foreign and military policy”).

    • Replies: @nebulafox
    @Twinkie

    Re: Byzantine history, I forgot environmental shifts. I know that's not popular here, understandably given that our current administration is filled with people who'd love to withdraw east of Wake Island in exchange for on paper promises from Beijing on global warming, but they could really wreak particular havoc on pre-modern, agricultural societies. A year where the sun didn't shine as bright as it usually did...

    I think that this dynamic was less because US intelligence was incompetent-that's not to say they never were-than the fact that these countries had politics of their own that ultimately drove things.

    Another irony: for all the image the CIA gets as this bastion of hard-right conservatism, the reality was very different. The dominant political ideology seems to be mainstream Establishment thought, whatever that happens to be at the time. This doesn't have to be coherent, then or now. NVA flags in Langley in 1970 weren't an uncommon sight at the height of the protests over the Cambodian operation in 1970, even when there was no issue backing right-wing dictators in Latin America at the same time. Reminds one of 1990s/2000s-era attempts to export democracy coinciding with MFN status for China.

    >We are just awesome at pouring money in and getting little back in return (see Afghanistan for a recent example – I call it “bricks of cash as foreign and military policy”).

    Nothing in return except maimed teenagers and early 20-somethings in Walter Reed, sadly. Didn't we pour more money into Afghanistan than the country's actual GDP at one point? We've come a long way from the Marshall Plan.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

  70. @Twinkie
    @nebulafox


    It’s important to not overestimate the US role in the domestic politics of 3rd World countries during the Cold War. Every now and again, you did have coups that were mostly American pushed, but they were the exception, not the rule.
     
    Third world taxi drivers were always blaming the CIA for local bridge collapses.

    Most of the time, the CIA - and the USG in general - reacted to coups and large political changes in the Third World rather than being causal agents. But it was in the interests of the former to retconn a strong hand.

    A book title on the U.S.-South Korea relations during the Carter years says it all - “Massive Entanglement, Marginal Influence.” We are just awesome at pouring money in and getting little back in return (see Afghanistan for a recent example - I call it “bricks of cash as foreign and military policy”).

    Replies: @nebulafox

    Re: Byzantine history, I forgot environmental shifts. I know that’s not popular here, understandably given that our current administration is filled with people who’d love to withdraw east of Wake Island in exchange for on paper promises from Beijing on global warming, but they could really wreak particular havoc on pre-modern, agricultural societies. A year where the sun didn’t shine as bright as it usually did…

    I think that this dynamic was less because US intelligence was incompetent-that’s not to say they never were-than the fact that these countries had politics of their own that ultimately drove things.

    Another irony: for all the image the CIA gets as this bastion of hard-right conservatism, the reality was very different. The dominant political ideology seems to be mainstream Establishment thought, whatever that happens to be at the time. This doesn’t have to be coherent, then or now. NVA flags in Langley in 1970 weren’t an uncommon sight at the height of the protests over the Cambodian operation in 1970, even when there was no issue backing right-wing dictators in Latin America at the same time. Reminds one of 1990s/2000s-era attempts to export democracy coinciding with MFN status for China.

    >We are just awesome at pouring money in and getting little back in return (see Afghanistan for a recent example – I call it “bricks of cash as foreign and military policy”).

    Nothing in return except maimed teenagers and early 20-somethings in Walter Reed, sadly. Didn’t we pour more money into Afghanistan than the country’s actual GDP at one point? We’ve come a long way from the Marshall Plan.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @nebulafox


    We’ve come a long way from the Marshall Plan.
     
    That was temporary aid to functioning economies. It never fixed the South of Italy, for example.

    There was no chance of aid fixing Afghanistan. The elites probably knew that and set it up like Biden's billion dollars in aid to Ukraine so long as Hunter got a chance to wet his beak.

    Replies: @nebulafox

  71. @V. K. Ovelund
    @TomSchmidt


    Don’t turn your SUV into Dresden, 1945.
     
    Funny you should mention it. I've been restoring a '45 Dresden. The Dresden is in my garage and still needs an original radiator cap. Have you got one I can buy off you?

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

    No, but I might be able to get access to a CNC if you’ve got specs. I’d need to trade favors.

    What is a Dresden 45?

    • Replies: @V. K. Ovelund
    @TomSchmidt


    What is a Dresden 45?
     
    My lame attempt at humor in questionable taste, sorry. I'll do better, cleaner next time.
  72. @nebulafox
    @TomSchmidt

    I take Peter Heather's line that, practically speaking, the Byzantine empire was more another successor state than anything else. (Don't dare tell a Byzantine that, though!) They still had a better claim on Romanness than anybody else did-fundamental Roman political structures survived in Constantinople, for example, and of course, the unbroken line of emperors back to Augustus-but it was really quite a different cultural construct by the Middle Ages.

    But even if you take this line, that still means the Roman Empire survived in its "classical" form for 150 more years after the West fell. It was an increasingly Christianized empire, but for all intents and purposes, Constantinople under Justinian was still very much an "East Rome" place. And it took a succession of truly destabilizing, unprecedented shocks for the collapse of the 7th Century to happen: Justinian's overexpansion, the counter-productive pummeling with Persia, economic collapse, and above all else, bubonic plague, all right in time for Arab society to restructure itself under new social arrangements simultaneously with Slavic migration into the Balkans. Most states wouldn't have survived that at all.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @Yellowface Anon

    One recalls the admonition that they never monkeyed with the coinage, like the West did. A lot of resiliency in that. I know the Japanese emperor is the oldest ruling line in the world, but the 1100 years of Byzantium has to be the longest that a state survived in history, from 330 to 1453.

    I don’t want a Roman collapse for USG. I want Berlin, 1945. Trials. Executions. Destruction of the ruling party.

    • Agree: Bill Jones
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @TomSchmidt

    That still means lots of (more transitory) hardship when the Nazi war economy fell apart and new economic arrangement still needed to be sorted out post-war. And don't forget the German expulsion from Eastern Europe, and quasi-genocide - a lot will perish.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

  73. @TomSchmidt
    @nebulafox

    One recalls the admonition that they never monkeyed with the coinage, like the West did. A lot of resiliency in that. I know the Japanese emperor is the oldest ruling line in the world, but the 1100 years of Byzantium has to be the longest that a state survived in history, from 330 to 1453.

    I don't want a Roman collapse for USG. I want Berlin, 1945. Trials. Executions. Destruction of the ruling party.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    That still means lots of (more transitory) hardship when the Nazi war economy fell apart and new economic arrangement still needed to be sorted out post-war. And don’t forget the German expulsion from Eastern Europe, and quasi-genocide – a lot will perish.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
    @Yellowface Anon

    There's no question that a lot of people will die in the USA when current arrangements end. I don't look forward to that. I don't think it's avoidable unless new arrangements are made now, and the elites aren't permitting those.

    One stunning fact about the decline of Rome: living standards ROSE after the rise of more local rulership because the burden of supporting the imperium and capital was removed, and the collapse in the West (excepting Britain: they really did collapse back to a level below the one they had before the Roman conquest) only really got underway with the rise of Islam and the end of trade with Syria. Relevant book: Mohammed and Charlemagne. Watching useless elites get it will be worth the suffering.

    There should be no need for expulsions. You can do Berlin, 1945, to the rulers without necessarily expelling people though the Chinese might want some territory beyond Taiwan.

  74. @nebulafox
    @TomSchmidt

    I take Peter Heather's line that, practically speaking, the Byzantine empire was more another successor state than anything else. (Don't dare tell a Byzantine that, though!) They still had a better claim on Romanness than anybody else did-fundamental Roman political structures survived in Constantinople, for example, and of course, the unbroken line of emperors back to Augustus-but it was really quite a different cultural construct by the Middle Ages.

    But even if you take this line, that still means the Roman Empire survived in its "classical" form for 150 more years after the West fell. It was an increasingly Christianized empire, but for all intents and purposes, Constantinople under Justinian was still very much an "East Rome" place. And it took a succession of truly destabilizing, unprecedented shocks for the collapse of the 7th Century to happen: Justinian's overexpansion, the counter-productive pummeling with Persia, economic collapse, and above all else, bubonic plague, all right in time for Arab society to restructure itself under new social arrangements simultaneously with Slavic migration into the Balkans. Most states wouldn't have survived that at all.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt, @Yellowface Anon

    That’ll be some of the states which are trying to keep the old federal vision alive, e.g. Florida, Texas, Idaho, in a new chaotic environment.

    You still have (techno-)feudalism outside these territories, or outright demodernization.

  75. Reading some of the articles in degrowth I’m reminded of how much our side of the political divide, particularly the agrarian and localist economic ones, have in common with “woke”-connected degrowth movements, especially the grassroot-based ones – both want to detach from the system & have the same goal of moving past modern capitalist development to return to a more local-based form of economic and social existence, except from different cultural and ideological understandings: we have “the state is corrupt and anti-tradition” and the left-wing ones have “late capitalism is alienating and anti-ecology”.

    Sad thing the rhetoric of the left-wing movements is co-opted by an elite who is planning the replacement of the current economic system since the critique of the state isn’t their focus and some of their intellectuals are shared with insane wokes. If we see thru the divide and recognize the political and economic systems are the 2 heads of the same beast, we’ll have a lot to learn from each other.

  76. @Twinkie
    @LondonBob


    Need a new fence put in, I wonder what the quote will be compared to last year.
     
    One of my neighbors is a vice president with a national home builder. She told me that lumber price has tripled for her company in one year. I didn't believe her until I talked to the carpenter I often hire for my own house projects and he told me exactly that - tripling of the lumber prices.

    Replies: @Arclight, @Bill Jones, @Audacious Epigone

    Wholesale prices here.
    https://www.macrotrends.net/futures/lumber

    This is dollars per 1000 board feet of random length studs.

    Note the logarithmic scale.

    • Thanks: V. K. Ovelund, Twinkie
    • Replies: @res
    @Bill Jones

    Thanks. That shows a 5x valley to peak change in just over a year. But realistically more like 3x from late February 2020 trend ignoring the early COVID crash and May 3, 2021 outlier.

    Any thoughts on where things go from here? Is there much potential for increased supply or material substitution?

    Replies: @V. K. Ovelund

  77. @TomSchmidt
    @V. K. Ovelund

    No, but I might be able to get access to a CNC if you've got specs. I'd need to trade favors.

    What is a Dresden 45?

    Replies: @V. K. Ovelund

    What is a Dresden 45?

    My lame attempt at humor in questionable taste, sorry. I’ll do better, cleaner next time.

  78. @Yellowface Anon
    @TomSchmidt

    That still means lots of (more transitory) hardship when the Nazi war economy fell apart and new economic arrangement still needed to be sorted out post-war. And don't forget the German expulsion from Eastern Europe, and quasi-genocide - a lot will perish.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

    There’s no question that a lot of people will die in the USA when current arrangements end. I don’t look forward to that. I don’t think it’s avoidable unless new arrangements are made now, and the elites aren’t permitting those.

    One stunning fact about the decline of Rome: living standards ROSE after the rise of more local rulership because the burden of supporting the imperium and capital was removed, and the collapse in the West (excepting Britain: they really did collapse back to a level below the one they had before the Roman conquest) only really got underway with the rise of Islam and the end of trade with Syria. Relevant book: Mohammed and Charlemagne. Watching useless elites get it will be worth the suffering.

    There should be no need for expulsions. You can do Berlin, 1945, to the rulers without necessarily expelling people though the Chinese might want some territory beyond Taiwan.

  79. Oh. Had read about some fantastic German technology in WW2, like a Volkswagen that ran on wood:
    http://strangevehicles.greyfalcon.us/HOLZBRENNER%20VOLKSWAGENS.htm

    Thought it might be in that category.

    You have to wonder: why isn’t there a wood-burning Volkswagen now? I could drive around on tree pruning.

  80. @nebulafox
    @Twinkie

    Re: Byzantine history, I forgot environmental shifts. I know that's not popular here, understandably given that our current administration is filled with people who'd love to withdraw east of Wake Island in exchange for on paper promises from Beijing on global warming, but they could really wreak particular havoc on pre-modern, agricultural societies. A year where the sun didn't shine as bright as it usually did...

    I think that this dynamic was less because US intelligence was incompetent-that's not to say they never were-than the fact that these countries had politics of their own that ultimately drove things.

    Another irony: for all the image the CIA gets as this bastion of hard-right conservatism, the reality was very different. The dominant political ideology seems to be mainstream Establishment thought, whatever that happens to be at the time. This doesn't have to be coherent, then or now. NVA flags in Langley in 1970 weren't an uncommon sight at the height of the protests over the Cambodian operation in 1970, even when there was no issue backing right-wing dictators in Latin America at the same time. Reminds one of 1990s/2000s-era attempts to export democracy coinciding with MFN status for China.

    >We are just awesome at pouring money in and getting little back in return (see Afghanistan for a recent example – I call it “bricks of cash as foreign and military policy”).

    Nothing in return except maimed teenagers and early 20-somethings in Walter Reed, sadly. Didn't we pour more money into Afghanistan than the country's actual GDP at one point? We've come a long way from the Marshall Plan.

    Replies: @TomSchmidt

    We’ve come a long way from the Marshall Plan.

    That was temporary aid to functioning economies. It never fixed the South of Italy, for example.

    There was no chance of aid fixing Afghanistan. The elites probably knew that and set it up like Biden’s billion dollars in aid to Ukraine so long as Hunter got a chance to wet his beak.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
    @TomSchmidt

    What it did was set the template for the greater trajectory of the Cold War, particularly after the Korean War got the military juggernaut going. The big mistake Stalin made in the Cold War was grossly underestimating American economic power and the USSR's chances in a long-term attritional economic and political contest. There were people high up in the Soviet hierarchy, usually in the KGB and its forerunner agencies, who did understand relative Russian structural weakness compared to the USA, but for various reasons, they never came to power (Beria-he had too many enemies to survive Stalin's death) or came to power too late and didn't last long enough (Andropov, Putin's ideological mentor in many ways).

    But I digress. More to the point: what's there to be "fixed"? Afghanistan is Afghanistan. We were trying to change it into something it fundamentally wasn't. Similarly, Iraq, like Yugoslavia before it, was a cobbled together construct divided between profound sectarian hatreds that only brute force kept together. Indeed, one of the most telling aspects of why that war went sour was the nonstop comparisons to Vietnam, rather than Yugoslavia.

  81. @TomSchmidt
    @nebulafox


    We’ve come a long way from the Marshall Plan.
     
    That was temporary aid to functioning economies. It never fixed the South of Italy, for example.

    There was no chance of aid fixing Afghanistan. The elites probably knew that and set it up like Biden's billion dollars in aid to Ukraine so long as Hunter got a chance to wet his beak.

    Replies: @nebulafox

    What it did was set the template for the greater trajectory of the Cold War, particularly after the Korean War got the military juggernaut going. The big mistake Stalin made in the Cold War was grossly underestimating American economic power and the USSR’s chances in a long-term attritional economic and political contest. There were people high up in the Soviet hierarchy, usually in the KGB and its forerunner agencies, who did understand relative Russian structural weakness compared to the USA, but for various reasons, they never came to power (Beria-he had too many enemies to survive Stalin’s death) or came to power too late and didn’t last long enough (Andropov, Putin’s ideological mentor in many ways).

    But I digress. More to the point: what’s there to be “fixed”? Afghanistan is Afghanistan. We were trying to change it into something it fundamentally wasn’t. Similarly, Iraq, like Yugoslavia before it, was a cobbled together construct divided between profound sectarian hatreds that only brute force kept together. Indeed, one of the most telling aspects of why that war went sour was the nonstop comparisons to Vietnam, rather than Yugoslavia.

  82. @Bill Jones
    @Twinkie

    Wholesale prices here.
    https://www.macrotrends.net/futures/lumber

    This is dollars per 1000 board feet of random length studs.

    Note the logarithmic scale.

    Replies: @res

    Thanks. That shows a 5x valley to peak change in just over a year. But realistically more like 3x from late February 2020 trend ignoring the early COVID crash and May 3, 2021 outlier.

    Any thoughts on where things go from here? Is there much potential for increased supply or material substitution?

    • Replies: @V. K. Ovelund
    @res


    Thanks. That shows a 5x valley to peak change in just over a year. But realistically more like 3x from late February 2020 trend ignoring the early COVID crash and May 3, 2021 outlier.

    Any thoughts on where things go from here? Is there much potential for increased supply or material substitution?
     
    I too would like an answer to this question, if any reader has one.
  83. @res
    @Bill Jones

    Thanks. That shows a 5x valley to peak change in just over a year. But realistically more like 3x from late February 2020 trend ignoring the early COVID crash and May 3, 2021 outlier.

    Any thoughts on where things go from here? Is there much potential for increased supply or material substitution?

    Replies: @V. K. Ovelund

    Thanks. That shows a 5x valley to peak change in just over a year. But realistically more like 3x from late February 2020 trend ignoring the early COVID crash and May 3, 2021 outlier.

    Any thoughts on where things go from here? Is there much potential for increased supply or material substitution?

    I too would like an answer to this question, if any reader has one.

  84. Jtgw says:
    @bayviking
    @Rosie

    It does seem strange at first that blue and red States with opposite policies have similar outcomes. But pandemic control requires a national policy because of our open borders. Many Asian countries, New Zealand and a few African countries have gained control quickly of the outbreak, when compared to the United States with harsh national policies. The only change that has improved outcomes here has been the vaccines. This is controversial, strangely because the same people that love Trump appear to hate his fast tracked vaccine and have almost certainly been vaccinated for polio, smallpox and other diseases, just to attend school.

    DeSantis's policies are driven exclusively by what's best for business, not human health or pandemic control. The latest release of AARP’s Nursing Home COVID-19 Dashboard shows that Florida is trending higher than the national average for new reported cases of the virus. Vaccination rates among Florida’s long-term care workers remains very low at 38%,” said AARP Florida State Director Jeff Johnson. “With new AARP data indicating Florida is trending higher than the national average for new COVID-19 cases. So DeSantis’s policies are having a negative impact on the large elderly population in Florida. It is ridiculous to pretend that DeSantis is on to some higher level of data driven scientific thinking. Republican control of Florida is a long running tragedy based on gerrymandering, voter purging, software tampering and ballot invalidation.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Jtgw

    Good point about open borders. Explains ultimately why so much policy gets nationalized – states and localities really can’t enact their own policies without affecting neighbors that have no legal authority to control their borders, so they have to call in the federal authority to adjudicate and lay down a common policy.

  85. @Twinkie
    @LondonBob


    Need a new fence put in, I wonder what the quote will be compared to last year.
     
    One of my neighbors is a vice president with a national home builder. She told me that lumber price has tripled for her company in one year. I didn't believe her until I talked to the carpenter I often hire for my own house projects and he told me exactly that - tripling of the lumber prices.

    Replies: @Arclight, @Bill Jones, @Audacious Epigone

    Yep, I’ve seen it at Home Depot. A 2×4 was a couple of bucks a year ago. Now it’s almost $8.

  86. @WorkingClass
    Way too many topics for a readable thread AE.

    Replies: @anon, @Audacious Epigone

    These Sunday comment of the week posts are quasi open threads.

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