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The betting markets by state have looked a bit better for Trump than polling averages by state have for several months, but the differences between the two have widened recently. Polling presages an electoral blowout:

But skin in the game thinks it will be a considerably closer run contest:

The most obvious reason for this divergence is tomorrow’s scheduled presidential debate between Trump and Biden. I was mistakenly incredulous that it would take place. The reason for that incredulity is shared by many others, though, as the differences between these two hypothetical electoral maps illustrate. The calculation is Biden will take a Nixonian hit that current polling cannot anticipate.

For Biden, there is a lot of potential downside for little apparent potential gain. Perhaps the ridiculous trial balloon Nancy Pelosi floated immediately crashed into the floor and the campaign determined that skipping out would come at too high a price to Biden’s credibility. Maybe the chemical concoction the former vice president gets injected with before debates is foolproof. The nominee handled himself well enough in the last primary debate one on one with Bernie Sanders, after all. In fact he has consistently performed acceptably at debates throughout this presidential cycle even as he’s stumbled badly in speeches and interviews.

We’ll find out soon.

 
• Category: Culture/Society, Ideology • Tags: Election 2020, Polling 
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  1. Anonymous[103] • Disclaimer says:

    Biden will win, through fraud.

    Anti white policies like in South Africa will become normal. Whites will no longer be allowed to own guns. There will be a great flood of 3rd world immigrants like the world has ever seen.

    You think it’s bad… then imagine that x100. Turner diaries is coming to life.

    • Troll: Corvinus
  2. nebulafox says:

    OT take:

    Interesting.

  3. songbird says:

    Joe came across pretty poorly to me 8 years ago.

  4. My personal observation of people with mild dementia or simple age-related cognitive decline is that (a) there are good days and bad days so that past behavior cannot predict future events reliably, and (b) there is some amount of being to get “up” for special events, even aside from questions of medication.

    I hope Trump has the self-discipline to drive the conversation in such a way that Biden can get himself tangled in verbal weeds. Trumpian strange or obtuse speech will be much less a negative for him than Bidenian same.

  5. 1. Biden will be high as a kite on Adderall and B-12 injections, will have live-feed information and prompts secretly fed to him, as well as softball questions and velvet handling by the Lugenpresse. Trump will basically be debating not Edgar Bergen, but Charlie McCarthy. Under sustained artillery fire. It’s going to be ludicrous. This is really going to be embarrassing to watch, and will really show you quite starkly who your slave-masters and your enemies are.

    2. The Dems will win through massive mail fraud, prolonged election results delay, mail fraud, organized riot strong-arming, mail fraud, the blackmail threat of endless chaos if Trump does not concede, mail fraud, a unified Jewish media megaphone blasting non-stop at “eleven”, mail fraud, mail fraud, and mail fraud.

    This will be the last election of the sinking ship formerly known as the Republic.

    • Disagree: Corvinus
    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    , @Realist
  6. I am entirely confident that Trump is going to win this election. He will win it on election night; there won’t be any protracted court fights. Biden will concede. This result will be accepted with surprising passivity by all. There will be very few riots. The only people truly upset will be a few idiots in the media.

    When this happens there will be a lot of soul-searching all over the Left and the Right and the Alt-Right. People will ask how? why? what did we miss? And the answer is that the permanent opposition can never win anything. They only know how to be the opposition, so they will scuttle themselves in the end.

    • Replies: @Jay Fink
    , @V. K. Ovelund
  7. Jay Fink says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    Do you really think of Democrats as the permanent opposition? I see them as the ruling class…they control media, education etc. It’s amazing to me that they ever lose,. As time goes by we will eventually become a one party state unfortunately.

    • Agree: iffen
    • Replies: @RoatanBill
  8. @The Germ Theory of Disease

    Agree with everything except the last sentence. Elections, or “elections”, will continue as they lend an air of legitimacy, but nothing important will be at stake in them.

    Separably, I note that both the polls and the betting markets give MI and PA—the two states that tipped 2016 to Trump—to Biden.

  9. @Intelligent Dasein

    I am entirely confident that Trump is going to win this election.

    We shall see.

    Opinion polls are usually approximately right, and excited citizens who insist that the polls are specially slanted or suffer from improper sampling are usually wrong, so one supposes that a Biden victory is likely; but really, it seems hard (at least to me) to guess what will happen.

    The great quadrennial anticipation has arrived.

    • Replies: @Cloudbuster
  10. Dr. Doom says:

    I still say Trump will win. Biden will crash at the debate tonight.

    The Leftists and antifa will riot and Trump will have to put it down.

    Civil War II will get hot after this Last Election.

    I do not expect there to be any more of this “voting” after this.

    Power will be gained through FORCE, and the “peaceful transfers” will be kaput.

    I expect there to be a dictator that follows Trump.

    Donald J. Trump is the Last President of the USA…

    • Replies: @Yawrate
  11. Realist says:

    Remember Chris Wallace is a Jew and there is plenty of Jewish pressure at Fox News…as has been demonstrated recently.

  12. Realist says:
    @The Germ Theory of Disease

    This will be the last election of the sinking ship formerly known as the Republic.

    The last meaningful election happened decades ago…but I agree with your comments. Biden’s brain is no longer with us…such as it was, and he will be doped up on Adderall.

  13. unit472 says:

    Without the likely mail in ballot fraud, I’m optimistic. The electoral college decides presidential elections so it doesn’t matter to Trump if Biden gets 90% of the vote in California and New York. He’s just got to protect the states he won in 2016.

    Ironically, from Biden’s POV, covid may help Trump do just that. Cities like Miami, Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee have had a disproportionate number of cases and deaths in these battleground states. A 75 year old negro woman dying in Philadelphia or Detroit is a vote lost to Biden. There are a few thousand of these in every city I mentioned. There is also the economic impact which has also fallen disproportionately on Biden’s base ( white and black). If you are a white twenty something who has had to move back home to your parents basement in Ohio from San Francisco or New York your mail in ballot there isn’t going to do you much good in Columbus or Dayton.

    I was surprised Trump allowed the Feds to extend the eviction moratorium as allowing landlords to throw deadbeat tenants out would have greatly expanded the number of voters no longer living where they are registered to vote but we should not assume that this number is negligible either. Trying to reregister this mass of voters and get them to the polls is a big problem for the Democrats which is why they are so intent on committing mailin ballot fraud.

    • Replies: @Yawrate
  14. Arclight says:

    As long as Joe doesn’t soil himself on TV, he will be considered the winner. As others have noted, those suffering from dementia have good and bad days and they will have him hopped up on whatever mind clarifying drug is at hand.

    Trump has to a) call him out for misstatements and make him defend them, since he will probably get confused or say something strange, and b) try to remind viewers that Joe has been out of sight for much of the last few months while Trump is actually working.

    Just anecdotal, but I do have a few Dem relatives/friends who are considering not casting a ballot for president based on Biden’s decrepitude. Trump doesn’t need to flip a lot of people, just plant enough doubt that a lot of Dem-leaning voters don’t bother to vote.

    • Replies: @unit472
  15. unit472 says:
    @Arclight

    I couldn’t bring myself to vote for John McCain so even committed voters do skip the presidential race when their party nominates an unacceptable candidate. Biden is surely that for health reasons and, depending on what information comes out between now and election day, he may also be facing a criminal investigation a lot more serious than Robert Mueller.

    Either situation might make Kamala Harris president. We had a president who was getting BJs in the Oval Office and that didn’t turn out well. Don’t think a president giving BJs in the Oval Office would turn out any better but that is really Kamala’s only qualifying attribute.

  16. Catdog says:

    Dementia- if Biden does have it- is like a staircase, not a steady slope. A demented person might seem like they’re levelling off and then the next day they forget the difference between hot and cold or how to stand up. It’s possible that Biden might suffer such a major decline in the next month. His handlers must be sweating. And Trump does have Trump’s Luck. Lightning could strike twice, just as HRC collapsed on camera on 9/11.

    As far as the polls, I automatically add +5 to Trump’s number to get a more realistic figure. Even then it still looks like he’s losing.

  17. Predictit is a penny stakes meme site, not really skin in the game

    The polls are fake period

    Watch what Biden campaign is doing

    They are not acting like they have a 10% lead in PA, OH, etc etc

    I think the predictions of “No debate” will turn out to be close to correct.

    The Biden camp has the whole debate script in advance, he’s been sleeping all day, waking up near debate time, heavily medicated and electronic assistance. It’s a setup. The spin will be that he won so convincingly he doesn’t need to debate again. If general Flynn was still around we could have the NSA provide us with the already written articles discussing the pre-planned viral moments.

  18. Title of blog post by Mr. Epigone:

    The Divergence

    Portion of poem The Road Not Taken by Robert Frost:

    Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
    And sorry I could not travel both
    And be one traveler, long I stood
    And looked down one as far as I could
    To where it bent in the undergrowth;

    Fireworks and bells and whistles and most memorable bit from The Road Not Taken:

    Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
    I took the one less traveled by,
    And that has made all the difference.

    https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/44272/the-road-not-taken

    I say:

    Two roads diverged in an American Empire wood and that fat ass baby boomer Trumpy sold us out like a sonofabitch on election night 2016 and then the day after he defeated Hillary Clinton with our votes he put all those Goldman Sachs globalizer goons and Republican Party hacks and apparatchik bastards in his administration and Trumpy went along with Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell and all the rest of the rancid treasonous scum in the vile and disgusting Republican Party.

    Two roads diverged in an American Empire wood and Trump stabbed his voters in the back by pushing all the policies that the Republican Party donors and the Republican Party politician whores wanted.

    Trump now pushes for the USA to be flooded with foreigners and mass legal immigration “in the largest numbers ever” and Trump refuses to deport the upwards of 30 million illegal alien invaders in the USA.

    Vote CHARLES PEWITT as a write-in candidate for president on November 3.

    Pewitt Pledge:

    1) Implement an immediate moratorium on all legal immigration and deport all illegal alien invaders.

    2) All eligible Americans will grab ten thousand dollars a month by means of the Pewitt Conjured Loot Portion(PCLP).

    Pewitt Conjured Loot Portion(PCLP) further explained:

    The Pewitt Conjured Loot Portion(PCLP) will pay each American who has all blood ancestry born in colonial America or the USA before 1924 a cool ten thousand dollars a month. The US Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank shall work together to conjure up the cash out of thin air, just like the ruling class is doing now.

    IT’S OKAY TO BE WHITE

    GOD BLESS AMERICA

  19. @V. K. Ovelund

    It’s dispiriting to grant that opinion polls are usually right. To do so is to admit that a majority of the population supports putting a dementia patient into one of the most powerful offices in the world over a man who has effectively ruled as a conscientious moderate. By conscientious moderate, I mean he has bowed to the powers of the other branches of government, neither violating the law nor ignoring judicial orders.

    Pull away all the hair-on-fire hyperbole and Trump is a reasonable guy doing a reasonable job. Any president is going to disappoint a significant portion of the electorate with any given decision in this polarized environment. I can’t think of a single decision of his that “shocked the conscience.” Sure, you may not agree with all his decisions politically, but there’s absolutely nothing radical about the guy’s actual decisions and orders. If you are driven to madness by his tweets, that’s on you, not him.

  20. J1234 says:

    Biden will win, through fraud.

    It would be interesting to know if the betting markets that AE referenced take voter fraud into consideration when determining their odds. If so, it would be even more interesting to know if that’s the main reason Trump is still behind even in the closer betting odds numbers.

    Of course, the odds or polling numbers are largely irrelevant until after the debates, but something tells me that the “legitimate” polls are something less than legitimate. My sense is that confidence in Biden’s abilities are sliding down a pretty steep slope daily. When he named the freakish KH as his running mate, my Democrat wife said, “he just lost.”

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  21. @Jay Fink

    The (s)elections are theater. There already is a one party state. No matter who gets elected, the deep state always wins.

    • Replies: @Jay Fink
  22. Yawrate says:
    @Dr. Doom

    That’s assuming Biden shows up for the debate. His people won’t let him on the stage if he’s not well toward the end of the day. They’ll claim some on their staff tested positive for CV19 and Biden was in their proximity.

    They’ll lie if they need to.

  23. Yawrate says:
    @unit472

    I’ve got a black tenant living in a place I own west of Detroit. He’s about 55 and personally knows a dozen people that died from CV19. I’m his age and I don’t know anyone that died.

    He says that black folks were not following social distancing and masking guidelines. They held private parties instead of going to a bar. Friends of friends would then show up and nobody was masking.

    • Thanks: Mark G.
  24. Jay Fink says:
    @RoatanBill

    I very much agree in general but think Trump was an exception. He threatened the deep state which is why they were so hysterical about him. He didn’t come from a political background and the themes he ran on in 2016 where off the acceptable deep state path. I think more than anything they were worried about him improving relations with Russia.

    Soon after Trump was elected it became apparent he was obeying the deep state. Note how quickly members of his cabinet with a nationalist-populist bent were replaced with establishment types. He was so different than his 2016 GOP primary opponents but in the end governed similar to the way they would have, tax cuts for the rich etc. The only difference is his tweets and blunt way of speaking. Even if his governing hasn’t deviated much from any generic Republican I still don’t think they trust him and they would be more comfortable with Biden/Harris.

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
    , @A123
  25. Yawrate says:

    Undoubtedly the polls are directionally correct. And by that I mean the change in voter sentiment.

    But given what happened in 2016 coupled with the fact of the shy Trump voter it’s likely much closer than polling indicates.

    I for one, never participate in polls. It’s none of their damn business. And I’m certainly not the only quiet Trump voter that dislikes pollsters.

    • Replies: @Mr. Rational
  26. @Jay Fink

    Trump has accomplished exactly nothing. The US is still Israeli occupied territory and as long as the dollar holds, will remain in charge of the entire gov’t. The military gets more and more money to kill more and more people as directed by Israel.

    A Biden win will accelerate the process the deep state wants implemented, but even with a Trump win, the end result will be the same. Pick either puppet and the string puller will make them dance to his tune.

    The Republic died in 1913. The corpse of the USA has been falling the entire time and very soon will hit the floor. When the dollar turns into toilet paper, it’s over.

  27. A123 says:
    @Jay Fink

    In two huge ways, Trump has changed the dynamics from the McCain/Romney GOP(e) to a Populist GOP:

    -1- Trump has not started any new foreign misadventures and pulled back on several he inherited. Number of troops in Afghanistan have been reduced and are headed to zero.

    -2- Trump refused to obey Globalist “Free Trade” dogma and is closing the door on various forms of bad behaviour. He replaced NAFTA and made significant gains in the Phase 1 bilateral negotiations.

    Trump is not an Ayatollah or an Emperor. He made significant gains within the system, but could not do everything simultaneously. Trump’s 2nd term, with friendlier courts, will be more productive in term of results.

    PEACE 😇

    • Agree: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @Jay Fink
  28. Wency says:

    The calculation is Biden will take a Nixonian hit that current polling cannot anticipate.

    Following your link and watching part of the 1960 debate again, Nixon’s “failure” involved a level of reasoned, courteous eloquence that no longer seems like it belongs on this planet. No matter who comes out ahead in tonight’s debate, I anticipate that a juxtaposition of the 1960 video against tonight’s proceedings will be highly edifying to future historians studying the decline and fall of the American Republic.

    • Agree: Mark G.
    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  29. The effect of mail-in voting on the election results this year will be interesting. Trump and many Republicans have criticized mail-in voting, and the general consensus seems to be that an increasing number of mail-in ballots will help Biden. Personally, I am not so sure. Nationwide, over 550,000 ballots were disqualified in the primaries this year because they were filled out incorrectly, and there will doubtless be large numbers of ballots disqualified in the general election as well. Minority voters are more likely than average to have their ballots thrown out than White voters are, and Democrats are far more likely to vote by mail than Republicans this year.

    It should not be forgotten that this has already affected elections in the past. In 2000, more voters in Florida intended to vote for Gore than for Bush, but so many Gore voters filled out their ballots incorrectly that they were thrown out, giving Bush the state of Florida and thus the Presidency.

    One possible scenario is that most voters will vote for Biden this year, but that so many of them will have their ballots disqualified that Trump will win the election. This possibility seems to be worrying some Democrats:

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/democrats-frantically-move-away-from-pushing-mail-in-voting-to-in-person

    • Replies: @Chrisnonymous
    , @dfordoom
  30. Jay Fink says:
    @A123

    Good points. He certainly has my vote.

  31. @Indiana Jack

    Fraudulent ballots will not be filled out incorrectly.

    • Replies: @ChrisZ
  32. ChrisZ says:
    @Chrisnonymous

    That’s one negative sentence, Chris. Reminds me of this one:

    “The Juwes are the men that Will not be Blamed for nothing.”

    Attributed to Jack the Ripper (or a witness), 1888.

  33. gman says:

    I think prediction markets are over estimating trump.

    I would add the Nate Silver was more right in 2016 than prediction markets. Nate Silver had Trump at about 28% vs. ~20% for prediction markets.

    • Replies: @res
  34. res says:
    @gman

    I would add the Nate Silver was more right in 2016 than prediction markets. Nate Silver had Trump at about 28% vs. ~20% for prediction markets.

    Remember that he boosted Trump’s chances at the last moment. He was predicting 11.9% on 10/17.
    You can see the June-Nov history of the predictions at
    https://web.archive.org/web/20160929013026/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    • Replies: @gman
  35. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Indiana Jack

    One possible scenario is that most voters will vote for Biden this year, but that so many of them will have their ballots disqualified that Trump will win the election.

    That sounds like a very likely scenario. If Trump wins in that way (and loses the popular vote again) it doesn’t seem likely that Dems or the media will accept the result as legitimate. And they will have a point. Trump essentially winning on a technicality will provoke a firestorm. 2000 was twenty years ago. The political climate is much nastier and much more hysterical today.

  36. Tulip says:

    The economy has been struggling, the House tried to pass a stimulus bill this summer (which would have provided some uplift by now), people are hurting, and the Senate Republicans said no. The consequence is that Biden is highly likely to win the Presidency, and the Senate will flip Blue. You can rag on the MSM and the hate-Trump contingent all you want, but this one is a pure exercise in why the GOP is the party of stupid. Frankly, stupid deserves to lose. A lot of those non-college white people who voted for Trump in 2016 were getting those fat unemployment checks @$$holes.

    • Replies: @A123
    , @nebulafox
  37. A123 says:
    @Tulip

    You have your facts backwards.

    The GOP Senate tried to pass a bill. DNC Minority Leader Schumer said “No”. (1)

    Senate Democrats united Thursday to block the roughly $500 billion Republican COVID-19 stimulus package from advancing.

    The final vote on the bill, which needed 60 votes to move forward, was 52 to 47

    The consequence is that Trump is highly likely to win because of DNC obstructionism in DC.

    PEACE 😇
    _______

    (1) https://www.masslive.com/coronavirus/2020/09/senate-democrats-block-republican-covid-stimulus-package-from-advancing.html

    • Replies: @Tulip
  38. @Yawrate

    I do the same.  I’ve dropped a bunch of calls from (alleged) pollsters this year.  No sense painting a target on my back for Pantifa to aim at.

  39. Tulip says:
    @A123

    No, the House passed a 3.3 Trillion bill on May 15, 2020. Trump and his boys tried to talk them down to 1.5 Trillion. September 10, 2020, Senate tries to pass a $500 billion bill, about .16 cents on the dollar, with no funding on any of the House’s priorities, basically a f.u. exercise in grandstanding.

    Just because the GOP is stupid doesn’t mean voters who might vote for the GOP are stupid. No, they f’d the poodle on the stimulus, and its not going to go well for them, and the Ben Shapiro talking points are not going to get them out of it. The GOP bleach drinkers already died.

    • Replies: @A123
  40. A123 says:
    @Tulip

    The low-IQ DNC expressed their poor impulse control by loading up a bill with special interest subsidies that had nothing to do with WUHAN-19.

    Because the DNC is stupid, greedy, and incompetent — voters will cast their ballots for Trump. No amount of Bernie Bros extremism can get them out of this. The SJW Globalist DNC sheeple blocking real WUHAN-19 relief are following Chuck Schumer to their imminent doom.

    PEACE 😇

  41. gman says:
    @res

    Thanks

    The prediction markets also had him really low after Access Hollywood which was published on 10/7/16

    Post yesterday’s debate – Trump is losing ground in the prediction markets

    You can track the markets with the following table: https://www.politicalalertengine.com/analytics/market-overview/general-2020-select

    • Replies: @res
  42. res says:
    @gman

    Thanks. Interesting numbers, and having the time history available in the charts makes it even better. Do you know how they generate their numbers? Which sites do they aggregate?

    I wonder how much cash is involved in these markets. If I were someone like Soros it would be tempting to try to move things by placing bets. Any idea if arbitragers are active trying to even out differences between the sites or between related bets? Or are the spreads to large for that to work well?

    P.S. Do you know of any similar sites showing the progress of the 2016 election markets?

    • Replies: @gman
  43. gman says:
    @res

    Political Alert Engine is based on PredictIt and has data from June 2019. PredictIt has an $850 per market limit and fees make arbitrage a challenge.

    For the 2016 data, RCP has a chart that cites PredictWise
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2016_president/
    https://markets.predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner

    ElectionBettingOdds.com I believe is PredictIt/Betfair combo
    https://www.electionbettingodds.com/WIN_chart_maxim_lott_john_stossel.html

  44. nebulafox says:
    @Tulip

    Even if Trump were to be reelected, I don’t think a blue Senate changes much for him. All a red one has gotten him are impeachment inquiries and unsolicited tax cuts.

    Of course, this assumes that Trump cares that much about policy in general, which I don’t buy. His enemies and supporters alike give the man too much credit. He’s Berlusconi with weirder hair, always has been, nothing more or less.

    >You can rag on the MSM and the hate-Trump contingent all you want, but this one is a pure exercise in why the GOP is the party of stupid.

    We have an Evil Party that thinks the Stupid Party is Evil and a Stupid Party that thinks the Evil Party is Stupid.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  45. @J1234

    The betting markets are, well, entirely market-driven. People putting money in can take whatever they want to into account.

  46. @Wency

    You turned out to be more correct than even you probably thought you’d be when you wrote this!

  47. @nebulafox

    Even if Trump were to be reelected, I don’t think a blue Senate changes much for him. All a red one has gotten him are impeachment inquiries and unsolicited tax cuts.

    Respectfully disagree. If Democrats control the House and Senate but Trump narrowly wins the EC while losing the popular vote by even more than in 2016, it becomes highly likely he is successfully impeached and removed from office during his second term. As long as Republicans retain control the Senate, he won’t be removed.

    • Replies: @iffen
  48. iffen says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    removed from office during his second term.

    It takes a 2/3 vote for removal, very unlikely.

  49. The pressure dynamic will be much different if the GOP doesn’t control the chamber though. I suspect all the Republicans who are publicly standing by Trump but always eagerly looking for an excuse to bolt will do so in such a scenario.

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