The betting markets by state have looked a bit better for Trump than polling averages by state have for several months, but the differences between the two have widened recently. Polling presages an electoral blowout:
But skin in the game thinks it will be a considerably closer run contest:
The most obvious reason for this divergence is tomorrow’s scheduled presidential debate between Trump and Biden. I was mistakenly incredulous that it would take place. The reason for that incredulity is shared by many others, though, as the differences between these two hypothetical electoral maps illustrate. The calculation is Biden will take a Nixonian hit that current polling cannot anticipate.
For Biden, there is a lot of potential downside for little apparent potential gain. Perhaps the ridiculous trial balloon Nancy Pelosi floated immediately crashed into the floor and the campaign determined that skipping out would come at too high a price to Biden’s credibility. Maybe the chemical concoction the former vice president gets injected with before debates is foolproof. The nominee handled himself well enough in the last primary debate one on one with Bernie Sanders, after all. In fact he has consistently performed acceptably at debates throughout this presidential cycle even as he’s stumbled badly in speeches and interviews.
We’ll find out soon.