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The Crisis of the Third Decade
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UK’s COTW:

Yes, it is fundamentally immoral (a word I do not use ever) that the S&P 500 should be so fully secured by the state that it can be at its record high from equity super-boom October of just last year.

It really is a case of playing at the casino, keeping your winnings and the government paying for your losses.

Those stocks include companies that are currently barely operating (airlines, hotels, restaurant chains), and almost none that are even close to being in the same financial shape as they were. But then why sell? After all, every time the price drops, the US state steps in to keep prices pegged to ever increasing expectations.

Just as when a state fixes their currency, the stock market will go up as long as confidence remains in the state’s will and ability to maintain their pegging.

This is very sad as the stock market is actually, at root, a wonderful mechanism for democratising ownership and helping with the efficient distribution of capital. It is not meant to be a way for the state to funnel money to big corps and increase the asset values of the richest people.

The problem is that the state won’t allow it fall and stay fallen. It is too scared of knock-on consequences, but the knock-on consequences will never be rolled out without either a fall or a 10, maybe 20 year period of zero growth in prices. And because yields are so low, a long period of stock market stagnation would inevitably turn into a rout anyway…so ever upwards it is…until they run out of ammunition or people think they really have.

We live in the negative interest rate society. It is ADHD and self-destructive, even as it enjoys watching itself burn. Ironic that all those people who decry “usury” never got how positive interest rates are fundamentally both a reflection and a cause of key values like frugality, long-term planning and productivity.

This temporary market recovery is entirely Fed-induced. If Jerome Powell announced tomorrow the federal funds rate is going up a measly 25 basis points, the Dow Jones would plummet 3,000. The Fed will NEVER be able to raise rates without crashing the market. Negative nominal rates are not sustainable. Maybe -0.25% is manageable for a time, but to goose the market, rates will have to keep going down. Rather than lender of last resort, the Fed will become the buyer of only resort. It will become obvious to everyone, everywhere that default or aggressive monetization is the only way out, and the dollar will fall.

Financial catastrophe is just one aspect of the crisis of the third decade. A few reactions to America on fire:

– Gun rights are secure for the foreseeable future. The police won’t even protect themselves. They’re sure as hell not going to protect you:

– Several videos of blacks brutalizing whites have emerged over the last few days. This is visceral footage. Were the races reversed in any of these incidents, they’d get corporate media coverage comparable to the video that putatively launched these riots in the first place:

– When someone as reflexively anti-white as Matt Walsh is losing his composure, it’s an indication that even with all the pop culture and educational propaganda layered on thick, middle Americans are still capable of Noticing:

It may also be an indication that we are reaching an inflection point. I suspect we will see an increase in white consciousness at the expense of white color blindness. The effect will be polarizing. White leftists will become more ashamed of and apologetic for their pallor; white centrists and white rightists will become more assertive in and more conscious of attacks upon their identity.

 
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  1. Daniel H says:

    This temporary market recovery……..

    Really, shudder to think what will happen when the Fed’s little tricks don’t work anymore. What will be safe? Ten acres of rural land, with a decent house on it? Who knows. I know that I – as are 90% of Americans – am totally unprepared financially for a complete wipeout. I live week to week as it is.

  2. Twinkie says:

    You know who wasn’t assaulted by the mob? This guy:

    Not everything he did was advisable or tactically sound, but he’s alive and unhurt.

    Gun rights are secure for the foreseeable future. The police won’t even protect themselves. They’re sure as hell not going to protect you

    But they will arrest you for defending yourself. Cross your T’s and dot your I’s even under stress. Train, train, train. Be prepared.

    • Replies: @LoutishAngloQuebecker
  3. How long till war versus China pops off? When does the dollar collapse?

    Any takers?

    America is a disaster zone right now.

    • Replies: @botazefa
    , @SunBakedSuburb
  4. utu says:

    “…the stock market is actually, at root, a wonderful mechanism for democratising ownership and helping with the efficient distribution of capital. ” – How naive. Stocks have no relation to capital. Their value is speculative only. Stocks that do not promised paying dividend should be banned. Taxing stock trade should cut down on speculations.

  5. Biden and the Democrats are with Antifa. Burning government buildings, churches, and whatever. Black folks are beginning to realize that white Antifa (Democrats) is burning shit down and they are being used/blamed. Trump has designated Antifa (Democrats) a domestic terrorist organization. This is indeed an inflection point. Antifa (Democrats) is out in the open now. The battle has begun in earnest.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-05-31/antifart

    Urban dwellers who have something to defend can’t help but realize that they are on their own against the mob. Local authorities (Democrats) will order the police to stand down. It’s time to get the fuck out of Dodge. I predict a steady stream of refugees seeking shelter in Red America.

    • Replies: @Pericles
    , @The Alarmist
  6. anon[370] • Disclaimer says:

    Gasoline is cheap. Buy a high mileage car and commute from a ring county outside whatever major city you live in. Get out. Let them have the cities. The lefties deserve to be stuck with the people they love. Get politically active locally and push for zoning that forbades any apartment buildings. That will keep Section 8 out of your county. Push to work from home if you job allows it, overachieve at work, and move even further away.

    I hope Portland and Seattle whites see all their working class whites move outside their counties and commute using economy cars. They can build little subdivisions and communities too far out to intrest the minorities in those cities. Let the left have those towns and the minorities therein. They can try to make their social experiment work without interference from any “normies” like us.

    • Replies: @Znzn
  7. SafeNow says:

    Whites will NOT become more assertive. Quite the opposite: Those able to do so will flee; a new wave of self-segregation. The cities had become problematic anyway, because of Covid, and this feral outburst clinches it. Whites will move farther out, preferably to places 5 to 10 miles from an interstate or other major highway. Residences and businesses unable to relocate will rely upon private security and upon South-Africa-like fortress architecture.

    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
    , @SFG
  8. anon[395] • Disclaimer says:

    The Fed will NEVER be able to raise rates without crashing the market.

    But why? My guess is that the core white American demographic — the one that does all the work and actually keeps the lights on (literally, 90% of nuclear power plant operators + a large majority of line workers, etc.) is aging out and being replaced with a smaller, less capable white generation. The Fed can use financial tricks, but it cannot delay the day of reckoning. We are heading for a permanent lost decade similar to Japan circa early 1990s. Immigration can’t fix that because there just aren’t enough talented people to move here anymore. Increasingly, foreigners wish to stay in their own countries. Chinese students, for instance, opt to return home after graduation. There are several factors for this, some of which I’m sure you can guess.

    • Replies: @LoutishAngloQuebecker
  9. Daniel H says:

    It’s easy enough to get a lot of people worked up against the top 1%, but those in the top 10% will never agree that they are very much the problem too (along with government employees). It is the investment portfolio (equity, bond, real estate, 401K, pension) of the top 10% that the plutocrats are terrified of impairing. Absolutely terrified of this cohort.

    • Replies: @SunBakedSuburb
  10. Pericles says:
    @WorkingClass

    Black folks are beginning to realize that white Antifa (Democrats) is burning shit down and they are being used/blamed.

    Thought bubble while carrying a TV out of a smashed-up Target.

  11. Pericles says:

    I’m kicking myself for not predicting this, because it seems kind of obvious in retrospect. Okay, so with this the left probably throws the election, which they were about to lose anyway, but on the other hand flex their muscles and show that the authorities are faggy wimps who don’t dare to act. Unresisted street violence. That’s how you gain real political power.

    I guess this was what they were afraid the alt-right would do. Ha.

    Meanwhile, at the retirement home, “Don’t make me get the key to my weapons locker. You wouldn’t like me if I opened my huge weapons locker. I’m getting up now, I’m warning you.”

    In another sense, the whole thing also radiates ridiculousness and LARPing, with no shots fired. At the moment it’s all just a space to destroy and have some exciting fun for the politically privileged, and the rich insurance companies will surely make us all whole in a short while.

  12. iffen says:

    I asked this question before: What is the limit for how much money we can lend ourselves? Until we reach that point everything else is commentary.

  13. Znzn says:
    @anon

    You know that many of these antifa are working class minimum wage whites who lost their jobs right? Lawyers and surgeons do not go rioting.

  14. nebulafox says:
    @Pericles

    >Okay, so with this the left probably throws the election, which they were about to lose anyway

    Don’t be delusional. Riots only work in your political favor if you are running as the opposition on promises to restore law and order, i.e, Nixon in 1968. Trump is in the Oval Office right now. Churches and small businesses-supposedly his people in 2016, who he has consistently, constantly betrayed in office in favor of plutocratic parasites-are going up in flames, while he listens to Jared Kushner in his bunker insisting that he needs to focus on winning the black vote and not immediately take decisive, harsh federal action. This is not only wrong, but condescending: black business-owners want the rioters put down as much as anybody.

    It’s just like the pandemic: there’s no way this reflects positively on his leadership.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Pericles
  15. Anyone facing these thugs that isn’t holding a pistol or shotgun is a fool and is going to get what all fools get. Anyone holding a pistol or shotgun when facing these thugs had better be prepared to use it to protect life and property as common sense dictates.

    The ‘law’ works for the vicious in the society to the detriment of the peaceful individual.

  16. peterike says:
    @Znzn

    You know that many of these antifa are working class minimum wage whites who lost their jobs right?

    I think you will find that a significant number of them are wealthy, Jewish trust fund babies. And certainly, the higher up the leadership ladder you go, the over-representation of Jews will only increase.

    Funding is close to 100% Jewish.

    This is a return to early 20th century Bolshevik tactics, that’s all. Nothing new here other than the cell phones and the dark hordes.

  17. peterike says:

    I suspect we will see an increase in white consciousness at the expense of white color blindness.

    Nah!

  18. @utu

    The banking dynasties like the Rothschild family should be made penniless with their accumulated wealth used to restart an obvious failing economy. Corporations should get new charters that make them tax free enterprises while simultaneously limiting their ‘speech’ rights so that lobbying by them is illegal; no taxation means no representation. The casino on Wall Street should be reigned in by simply setting a lower limit of one year of ownership before a stock can be sold or used as collateral.

    I could go on but you get the general idea.

    • Agree: utu
  19. @Twinkie

    If you’re gonna defend yourself… defend yourself.

    The whites who were unfortunately attacked, often wielding less than deadly weapons, are idiots.

    That said, I’m thankful we can see the images. They contribute to worsening race relations.

    • Replies: @Znzn
  20. Znzn says:

    Why don’t leftist have guns unlike rightists?

    • Replies: @Neuday
  21. Znzn says:
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    Maybe they should take pointers on how to clear things house by house by looking at urban warfare videos? Or look up to the meaning of suppressing fire and fire and maneuver on the dictionary? In order to deal with rooftop riflemen? Just a thought, not that I have anything here.

  22. @anon

    Some experience in an “essential” industry like that in Canada…

    Every person in charge, from CEO, to engineering managers, to planners, are white Boomers. Intelligent, no-nonsense Boomers (not all are stupid cucks).

    The junior engineers are mostly durka durka imports. They are stupid and incompetent. Young white people are pretty useless, and fewer are going into blue collar work or STEM.

    This scenario is playing out across industries. Healthcare, utilities, manufacturing, etc.

    We have 10 more years or so until the 3rd worldization hits our industries. Any remaining white talent will likely flee to Europe or Asia. It won’t be pretty.

  23. Ironic that all those people who decry “usury” never got how positive interest rates are fundamentally both a reflection and a cause of key values like frugality, long-term planning and productivity.

    The traditional definition of “usury” does not refer to all interest-bearing loans, but specifically to unsecured loans. So a credit card company is engaging in usury, but a bank giving a (non-recourse) mortgage so someone can pay for a house is not. Intuitively, you can think of it like this: the mortgage is financially equivalent to a monthly rent + payment plan where both parties share ownership.

    The moral reasons behind prohibiting usury are numerous, but the easiest reason to understand is that it functions like a lesser version of slavery; instead of sharing ownership of a house or a car, you share ownership of someone’s life.

    But the practical reasons are just as compelling. If all loans are property secured without recourse, the entire concept of personal bankruptcy becomes unnecessary. Usurious loans massively destabilize the entire financial sector for obvious reasons–people can obtain money without any clear means to repay it. I don’t think it would be an exaggeration to say that the prevalence of usury is the #1 problem with the current world economy; it is certainly a direct cause of both the 2008 crisis (as “subprime” mortgages would have been too risky as no-recourse loans) and, even more obviously, today’s college lending bubble.

    So usury is both evil and highly distortive, and banning it would be a no-brainer if it didn’t serve as an easy cash cow for financial elites. That being said, I agree with the rest of your comment about the stock market.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @UK
  24. @SafeNow

    You’re a moron. The vast majority of white people already live more than 10 miles from an interstate highway. The “white” minority in big cities are all Jews, Italians, Irish, Cubans, etc.

  25. Znzn says:
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    Because most people who aren’t autists or on the spectrum frankly find math and coding boring and too abstract? Anyway reading reading the Anabasis on Alexander is much more fun than reading up on quadratic equations. I am sure only a minority on educated people in 1900 studied STEM courses back then.

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
    , @nebulafox
  26. @Znzn

    “Lawyers and surgeons do not go rioting.”

    Haven’t a couple of corporate lawyers been arrested in NY?

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  27. @Znzn

    STEM graduates build the world you live in.

    People that find math and coding boring are really too stupid to understand their significance.

    • Agree: Mark G.
  28. anon[361] • Disclaimer says:

    Ok, ok, how about we send them to reservations where all the police and judges are black and they can have all the fried chicken and malt liquor they want. BUT they have to renounce their US citizenship and anyone caught trying to re-enter the US will be shot. Or we could start a fund to offer free one-way trips to Liberia, a la Ari Shaffir:

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
  29. 128 says:
    @RoatanBill

    Thucydides, Livy, and Arian aren’t stupid people.

  30. The stock market is THE indicator mistakenly, of course of the state of the economy, so the Fed will do anything to prop it up. In spite of the fact as noted it’s a fool’s game! Main street where the REAL economy is never a consideration!

  31. nebulafox says:
    @Znzn

    The only reason men find mathematics complicated is because they fail to understand how complicated other human beings are.

    • Agree: UK
    • Replies: @Buzz Mohawk
  32. Realist says:

    If Jerome Powell announced tomorrow the federal funds rate is going up a measly 25 basis points, the Dow Jones would plummet 3,000.

    Exactly and it should already be down, at least, that much.

    The problem is that the state won’t allow it fall and stay fallen.

    There, will soon, be a time the state can do nothing.

    – Gun rights are secure for the foreseeable future. The police won’t even protect themselves. They’re sure as hell not going to protect you:

    Over the weekend Leland Vittert, of Fox news, got his ass in a jam. He and his video crew ran down the street with rioters in hot pursuit. After a couple blocks they found a police car with two cops inside…the hapless crew beat on the window begging for help…but were ignored. When the story was told later…the part of the police car and being ignored was left out. It didn’t fit the narrative of cops are your friends. Just plain goddamn hypocrisy.

  33. @RoatanBill

    Yes, people like that will criticize “science and math” and then turn around and wonder where all the middle class jobs went, and why are Indians and Asians the ones with them?

    • Replies: @Mr. Rational
  34. UK says:

    Thanks! I sold my oil at $37.50 or thereabouts. I feel another economic “correction” is coming soon. The list of things that really could go worse is long, and all assets fall somewhat in such a scenario, while opportunities become clearer.

    On the riots, goodness knows how this will play out, but it does seem that, while the left are just outright backing them, the much bigger centre left are against them even while blaming everything on anybody but the perpetrators. This means that the centre still holds and that gravity still works in a moderating direction.

    Nonetheless, the centre left seem unable to feel, or at least admit to themselves to feeling, any negative emotions towards the rioters, which leaves them with fairly uncomplex excitement (glee?) over the riots as events.

    Is their “progressive” ideology forcing them to repress their fear and hatred of the people burning their cities down? Quite possibly.

    Remember, these are people who have been absolutely authoritarian in response to COVID-19. They do not lack anxiety nor the will to make others validate it.

    Often, suppressed fear and hatred in a very anxious person = generic excitement. That energy has to go somewhere…

    It’ll be interesting to therefore see how the governmental response plays out. Those in positions of power over the rioters, blue state/blue city politicians, either support or are at least excited by the looting. And, at another minimum, if they’re white, don’t seem like they’ll ever be able to bring themselves to crush said looting – it would be openly crushing poor brown/black people.

    This means that the Federal government will step in and blue politicians will need to choose between Trump and #BlackLivesMatters. A choice they are so unready to make that they’ve now convinced themselves that the rioters are really Russian KGB Nazis.

    Maybe they can crush the riots while keeping this pretense up? It would be utterly dementing, but then the violence that smart people will do to themselves to protect their egocentric worldview is tremendous.

    I suppose another play would be to shut the riots down because COVID. This would be an easy thought to sustain, but it would also require a further lockdown and that would likely lead to a number of disasters; all of which the centre left don’t actually want.

    Meanwhile, the right are also uncertain. The centre/mainstream part of this wing are relatively weak already and the strident section are drifting into the desire for a generic #reckoning.

    Trump has often been fun but if he is the absolute best they can hope for then the status quo offers them very little of what they want and even less hope for the future if things continue.

    What the right absolutely don’t want however is to be the aggressors. Their conception of being good people doesn’t allow it. It barely allows for it even as overheated internet rhetoric. Those on the very far right, who don’t care, find this very frustrating but arguing with someone’s conception of being a good person is a complete waste of time. The ego will defend itself far more effectively than some keyboard warrior will ever overcome.*

    I’d watch for 3 potential turning points:

    1. Federal versus local/state government tension, forcing the centre left to choose between the people burning down their cities and Trump. This could really go either way, to turmoil or to peace.

    2. The advance of seemingly dementing blue conspiracy theories about the “real” people behind the riots. This would lead to peace but would be yet another step into a world of only illusion.

    3. An external shock – COVID resurgence, stock market crash, trade war, Lehman-like event – that would infuse everything with even more energy, which could then throw the situation in almost any direction.

    There is also a sort of fourth turning point. Trump could do like pseudo-Sinophiles wanted the CCP to do with HK. He could let them suffer. I can’t see it happening but even thinking it through may give some interesting insight into why the CCP did not choose that path, even as they didn’t crush the protests either.

    *A lot of the Jew stuff on the far right seems to be an unconscious recognition of this fact, but it tends to utterly alienate those who don’t suffer from borderline psychosis, regardless of its veracity. Then again, since I think it is total nonsense, perhaps I am biased against its effectiveness? To me it is as equally dementing as thinking Putin is the lead store smasher in Minneapolis. It is a “good” person’s way out of not wanting to be an aggressor while also wanting to aggress.

  35. @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    Increasingly, White Americans cannot get science and math jobs, period.  They cannot afford the student loans to become scientists because the few science jobs don’t pay enough to pay them off, and once a company has an Indian hiring manager no White man can get a coding job there; they all go to H-1Bs, who are hired on the basis of regional origin rather than competence.

    This is why Windows has become such a disaster; practically all of its code is now designed and written by Indians, who simply don’t have the brainpower required to write solid stuff.

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
  36. @Znzn

    Of course not – it´s the pampered keedz of samesaid lawyers and surgeons that are the problem;
    the Actually Working Class ™ is a bit wanting in revolutionary fervour, and always have been.

  37. @utu

    The trillions traded in the stock market didn’t materialize out of nowhere. All that money represents the difference between what you have to pay for a commodity and what it costs to produce, together with the valued created by workers’ labor that is taken by the owners rather than shared more equitably among the workers. This is Socialism 101 – see now why those who own the stocks and the proverbial means of production spend so much time and money telling `you how evil socialism is? Of course you don’t.

    • Replies: @utu
    , @scrivener3
  38. botazefa says:
    @AD70titusrevenge

    How long till war versus China pops off? When does the dollar collapse?

    Any takers?

    America is a disaster zone right now.

    Isn’t what we are seeing now, riots in 140 cities – THIS is what MODERN WAR looks like.

    Drop a virus on America. Boom!

    Who can disprove that we are currently under Chinese attack? All because they want Hong Kong. Maybe the CIA should stop meddling in Chinese affairs.

    We are at war.

  39. @Mr. Rational

    Increasingly ALL Americans cannot get science and math jobs because they are plainly too stupid given their mis-education and a culture that elevates those that produce the most income with the least effort. Everyone wants to become a ball player, stock broker, politician, musician, actress or Internet ‘influencer’. Very few want to study hard and actually build something.

    We have whole ‘professions’ that are just the opinions of their members with little to nothing backing up their bogus assertions. The venerated ‘law’ changes from one jurisdiction to the next and we’re all supposed to salute it as a noble enterprise. Psychiatrists haven’t a single empirical test for any of their bogus diagnosis. Cosmologists make up black holes, neutron stars, dark matter, etc with not a shred of empirical evidence. The society is full of BS artists all earning a high standard of living while producing rubbish.

    The US in particular is on a trajectory to 3rd world status once the existing builders of everything die off because there are very few to take their place.

  40. SFG says:
    @SafeNow

    Right. You’ll see a repeat of the white flight (now with yellow!) of the 60s.

  41. @utu

    Sigh.

    If a company has strong growth prospects, then I don’t even want it paying a dividend, because the odds are it can invest those funds more profitably than I can.

    Yeah, it’s “speculative,” but so what? No one’s putting a gun to your head and forcing you to own non-dividend-paying stocks.

    • Agree: UK
    • Replies: @utu
    , @TomSchmidt
  42. AaronB says:
    @RoatanBill

    Keynes almost a century ago predicted humanity was on the cusp of solving the production problem.

    What your examples mean is that its been solved.

    Everyone can live well on very little work, but everyone is afraid to admit that so we invent unnecessary work. Probably 70% of work we do is unnecessary. We also invent work for status.

    The unsolved problem now is social organization. We’ve built this incredible engine of production that requires a fraction of the work we are doing to sustain all of humanity.

    Money right now is tied to status, so for some people to be high status you have be very poor. The poorer you are, the higher status they are. This is a lot of the opposition to a decent minimum wage. While money will always be tied to status, it would be better to have a mixed system with knighthoods, and the like, to relax some of the pressure to impoverish others to cement your status. Maybe.

    In Norway, a McDonald’s worker makes minimum $22 an hour with full benefits and 6 weeks paid vacation a year. Baseline McDonald’s workers there buy their own homes. That’s obviously not possible in the US.

    It is a social problem, not an economic problem. How do we satisfy some peoples desire for status without impoverishing others.

    Another aspect of the issue is the desire for slavery and the degradation of others on the part of status seekers. To have someone work for you on minimal pay in degrading conditions under total control makes them feel good.

    Dmitry on one of Karlins threads describes how middle class workers actually do very little work most days, often as little as two hours, even in technology jobs. I can confirm this is true.

    There just isn’t that much to do.

  43. @RoatanBill

    Increasingly ALL Americans cannot get science and math jobs because they are plainly too stupid given their mis-education and a culture that elevates those that produce the most income with the least effort. Everyone wants to become a ball player, stock broker, politician, musician, actress or Internet ‘influencer’. Very few want to study hard and actually build something.

    Keen observation, but then you outed yourself as mis-educated and uncultured:

    Cosmologists make up black holes, neutron stars, dark matter, etc with not a shred of empirical evidence.

    Neutron stars are confirmed by heaps of data.  The density required for a stellar-mass object to spin at millisecond rotational periods requires something on the order of an atomic nucleus:  IOW, a neutron star.  The observed orbital periods and speeds of objects close to galactic cores, including our own, requires the primary body to be even denser.  As these primaries are dark (unlike pulsars, which are bright from radio to X-ray wavelengths) and matter falls into them, “black hole” is the obvious label.

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
  44. Being one who writes code and produces stuff, I can tell you this, there are a few types of coders:

    1. Imports – they strive to the letter of the spec, have no concept of purpose, nor does the code they produce.
    2. Cubers – big corp/government, they exist to fill a budget, they might even actually have some coding work they’re responsible for too, usually one person on a team of ten does the work, the other 9 do something related to the work of the one.
    3. Offshore – cheaper imports with less results
    4. Interns – these are people (sometimes with life’s worth job history) that love the newest shinny thing they’ve learned and everything is solvable by their shinny new toy (which will change next week) – they’re very, very draining.
    5. Developers – They have a specialty, they’re good at that, they can make that tool sing whatever tune you need it to – the best ones know the limits of their tools and punt outside of that.
    6. Full stack – They’re able to do everything, I mean, everything. Job hires LOVE these people. Except, they do everything shitty. But the boss loves hiring one instead of two or three experts in their fields.
    7. Savants – What bosses think they’re getting when they hire full stack, except these people aren’t dumb enough to work for someone else because they can do everything for real. I’ve met one in my 30 years of coding experience.

    I’d say in my experience over 30 years, across super large organizations down to small shops, I’ve encountered mostly cubers and interns (when I’m not dealing with imports or offshores) – I’ve yet to see a reasonable full stack person know enough to be proficient in the full stack, a hand full of developers (me included) and the one savant.

    I saw a meme the other day which explains a lot:
    The more about science you know, the less afraid you are of it; the opposite is true about software development.

  45. @Mr. Rational

    All you’re doing is repeating the assertion, without empirical evidence, for the existence of observations that have been wrongly attributed. Plasma physics has a completely different take on these objects and they do have lab experiments to back up their interpretations.

    Now, please explain how my ‘keen observation’ can in any way lead you to state that I’m uncultured. Another assertion with no proof on your part.

    • Replies: @Mr. Rational
  46. Neuday says:
    @Znzn

    Why don’t leftist have guns unlike rightists?

    Guns are dangerous and scary, especially to girls. Guys who own guns are often deplorable clingers. It’s too risky to have a gun in the house. To use a gun, you have to practice, which means either going to a gun range, which is probably filled with wife-beating racists, or out into the boonies, which is far away, scary, and probably filled with wife-beating racists. Also, guns have to be cleaned, which is like, work, and involves icky solvents and oil. Ammo is expensive, as are guns, and it’s hard to come across enough disposable income what with the college loan and paying for vacations and restaurants and rent in the city is high. Besides, if someone wants something I have that bad, they can just have it and I’ll just get another.

  47. utu says:
    @silviosilver

    “I don’t even want it paying a dividend, because the odds are it can invest those funds more profitably than I can.” – In buying their own stocks.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
  48. martin_2 says:

    I am in the UK so not really qualified to speak but from what I see on the Internet there is a problem with police brutality, or just plain callousness and negligence, in the USA. The most egregious case, however, worse than Floyd, is the case of the white man who was shot whilst lying on the floor and pleading for his life. So this is not necessarily a racial issue. The Floyd arrest and death would have been a marvellous opportunity for black Americans to stand up against police brutality on behalf of EVERYONE. For once, they would have been doing something for white people, and not having or expecting white people to do something for them. Unfortunately, however, it has been made into the usual tedious “blacks oppressed, whites oppressors” narrative by the media, liberal establishment, and the blacks themselves.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
    , @res
  49. utu says:
    @Observator

    “The trillions traded in the stock market…” – Do not really exist.

  50. @utu

    I know you’re not really this clueless.

  51. @nebulafox

    That’s funny.

    Listen, foxy, I humored a recent response from you because I agreed with it. All well and good, but here you sound ridiculous.

    Math is simply harder than most other human activities. How good are you at math? How much math have you studied?

    Contra to what you wrote, the truth is: The only reason men find mathematics complicated is because they are not intelligent enough — or self-disciplined enough — or educated and practiced enough — to understand it or to actually DO IT.

    Sincerely,

    Husband of a Mathematician.

    PS: I am pretty sure you are not a mathematician and don’t know what the hell you are talking about.

  52. @RoatanBill

    Plenty of math people I know study hard. But they don’t go into Math per se. They go to Wall Street because we have become about nothing except money in the USA.

    Smart people respond to incentives. Even dumb ones do, eventually. You’re not going to get a native class programming if the costs are consistently more than the benefits.

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
  53. @WorkingClass

    I predict a steady stream of refugees seeking shelter in Red America.

    Yes, but prior empirical evidence suggests they tend to bring their blue-state social-welfare tendencies with them.

    I am reminded of a second-world country where I lived a couple decades back, which chose to stretch the public’s money by running sewage and fresh water through the same pipes, but with a divider between the two, and the many subsequent boil-water orders that were issued due to inevitable breakdowns of that protective wall. Such is the balance between Red-State and Blue-State America today: Fresh water doesn’t really improve sewage to drinking quality water, but sewage quickly reduces drinking water to sewage.

  54. @silviosilver

    Ah, yes, the growth mania. There are a few companies that are true growers. But the vast majority of stocks are pseudo-growth stocks, with financial engineers using tricks to make EPS growth appear from added debt.

    Generally, though, you do want companies that are true growth stocks to reinvest earnings. Microsoft, by contrast? Stop the buybacks and pay out dividends.

    • Replies: @silviosilver
  55. Hacienda says:

    It may also be an indication that we are reaching an inflection point. I suspect we will see an increase in white consciousness at the expense of white color blindness.

    How about another option. An increasing white consciousness along with an increase in white’s ability to see other colors. I think the stock market recovery is real and we are living in the Age of Aquarius.
    Really, CV19 and these “riots” are minor. You’ve been swallowing Sailer’s autistic racialism too long. You do realize that unz.com is a humor site, right?

  56. @Observator

    When you buy a hamburger the price you pay for the “commodity” (interesting choice of words) is more than the cost to produce it, including the salaries and benefits of the employees, the rent and utilities of the physical plant, the insurance expense, the taxes, the cost of capital, etc of the business.

    If it were not why would anyone bother to produce it for you? I mean we could all form hamburger co-ops where you buy in a “share” to fund the capital equipment and then can purchase hamburgers there at a price that just covers the other costs with no nasty profits. But there would be no incentive for innovation or increased efficiency. If their burgers are cheaper they can only sell to their owners anyway. And if you want to shop at a grocery store, well you have to join a grocery store co-op, and fund that capital cost too, and a car dealer co-op, and you cant get a burger at the neighbor’s hamburger co-op because he might have invested more in better capital equipment.

    Of course you could have the co-ops sell to non members at a higher price, but then you pretty much have the joint stock corporation of capitalism.

    Or you could have the government own everything, and we see how that works.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  57. anon[125] • Disclaimer says:

    Ramzpaul has a really good take on the situation. I’ve made fun of the guy a couple of times here, but I’m willing to acknowledge when he’s right.


    PS. lockdowns didn’t bring on a dictatorship. They didn’t in homogeneous countries like South Korea. They merely exposed the faults that were already there. Also, a lot of the guys p***ed at Trump over Covid-19 were simply mad at the guy — a culmination of sorts — for being a do nothing bull****ter. Same with this situation where a lot of people are realizing Trump has failed.

  58. bro3886 says:

    “Gun rights are secure for the foreseeable future. The police won’t even protect themselves. They’re sure as hell not going to protect you:”

    What the hell does that have to do with anything? Gun and speech control will be brought about by immigrant votes, they don’t give a damn about your safety. The care about disarming you because they know what they’ve done to you and intend to do to you. Everything is downhill from immigration, including these riots. You don’t see the Democrats shaking in their boots about an electoral reaction to this violence like you did in ’92. That’s because they can count on solid racial bloc voting from non-whites, who now make up enough of the electorate to allow the left to ignore the so-called white “Silent Majority.”

    • Agree: Alfa158
    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  59. @TomSchmidt

    I agree with you completely.

    The incentives in the US are perverse. The US’s chief exports are death & destruction (military) along with regime change (CIA) and sanctions (State Dept) . It imports consumer goods because the financialization of the economy means no one wants to get their hands dirty actually building anything. Shuffling and ever increasing mountain of papers is supposed to lead to a health economy, and for a while it seemed to work.

    Now that SHTF time has arrived leading to the greatest depression, a new normal will evolve. I suspect it will involve massive violence from the gov’t down as well as from the people up.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  60. @TomSchmidt

    I hardly think what I said amounts to describing a growth “mania.” Growth is simply a fact of economic life. Companies invest in assets on which they can often earn a return greater than an individual investor could by investing the same funds elsewhere, so the that investor would be better off with the company retaining the earnings. That was my only point.

    True enough, some companies are run by shady operators who realize that the market often overpays for growth and they sometimes resort to “creative accounting” in order to manufacture it. That’s a more unfortunate fact of economic life, but I don’t believe it outweighs the beneficial fact mentioned earlier (as utu would apparently have it).

  61. @Buzz Mohawk

    PS: I am pretty sure you are not a mathematician and don’t know what the hell you are talking about.

    Yes. You are correct. Nebula Fox is an expert in the Byzantine Empire, and undoubtedly some other topics in the humanities (I am guessing a Ph.D., but I do not recall an explicit admission.)

  62. Arclight says:

    Does anyone doubt that if these rioters were made up of angry Tea Partiers or 2A advocates that the mayors would have brought the hammer down in less than a day? Although there are still plenty of good whites who won’t get the message until some looter literally has them and their girlfriend up against a wall, the authorities will give the ‘right’ people plenty of space to steal, loot, and break whatever they can and the rest of us will have no protection.

    I think a lot of middle of the road whites are going to check out after this mess – the writing is on the wall, and the left is not going to wait a few more decades before showing its hand in terms of what it has in store for the hated majority in this country. The politics of racial vengeance are headed our way ready or not.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  63. UK says:
    @Elmer's Washable School Glue

    The traditional definition of “usury” does not refer to all interest-bearing loans, but specifically to unsecured loans.

    I’m pretty sure, and a quick look on the internet has confirmed it, that “usury” was traditionally defined as subjectively “high” interest rates in general.

    E.g US state self-described “usury laws” ban loans (secured and unsecured) with interest rates above a certain threshold.

    The moral reasons behind prohibiting usury are numerous, but the easiest reason to understand is that it functions like a lesser version of slavery; instead of sharing ownership of a house or a car, you share ownership of someone’s life.

    But the practical reasons are just as compelling. If all loans are property secured without recourse, the entire concept of personal bankruptcy becomes unnecessary.

    These points are contradictory. The possibility of personal bankruptcy means that a personal loan is not actually a share in their life.

    Usurious loans massively destabilize the entire financial sector for obvious reasons–people can obtain money without any clear means to repay it.

    The people lending them money must think that they’ll get repaid, which is good enough for me. At least if it is never made my problem through the government bailing out the lenders.

    It also needs to be recognised that many, many people are not capable of understanding what they are getting into with all sorts of loans. I therefore assume protecting the innumerate is why usury laws are still in place. The prohibitions are set at levels at which no informed person would borrow.

    Obviously, as you recognise (-;, my point on mentioning “usury” was not to defend subjectively high loans but rather to highlight how a moral reaction against them can lead to people misunderstanding the equally strong moral hazard in interest rates that are too low.

  64. @AaronB

    Since economics is THE premier fraudulent profession, it’s practitioners, especially those of high caliber like Keynes, are frauds of the first order and shouldn’t be listened to even to determine if it’s night or day.

    ‘Everyone can live well on very little work’

    Yes, no one has to produce anything, stuff will just appear when someone just thinks of any particular want. Food, housing, consumer goods, everything will be supplied by the gods of the Federal Reserve.

    Please let me know what you’re smoking.

  65. @AD70titusrevenge

    The war with China has been a cold war, recently turned hot with the virus. But this war is more accurately described as a war with the Chinese elite and the American elites who have made a fortune in China.

  66. @Daniel H

    The financialization of the economy enriched the blood-sucking insect class and punished the productive. You too can live like Donald Trump! (before he became President Blumpft!)

  67. AaronB says:
    @RoatanBill

    Its 3% of the workforce to feed the nation.

    There was a serious movement to create 3 day weekends and 4 hour workdays. It’s technically feasible.

    In my job, there are many days when I work only 2-3 hours, but I have to be here 8. (To be fair, there are days or even weeks where I work hard).

    Hard work is from the technical viewpoint a thing of the past. And with automation, even more so.

    To be honest, the hard work thing was mostly an Industrial Revolution thing that was temporary and overcome with its own tools. In the Middle Ages people only worked half the year, and we know hunter-gatherers work less than 5 hours a day.

    Of course, there will always be people willing to put in 70 hour weeks for some grand project of theirs, but that’s a different story.

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
  68. @UK

    Thanks! I sold my oil at $37.50 or thereabouts.

    Great! Now you can afford to buy

    [MORE]

    MORE

  69. @RoatanBill

    AaronB is completely right here and it doesn’t require an economist to understand why–just simple common sense. The more labor-saving machines we invent, and the more efficient they get, the less work is necessary to produce the same amount of goods. Living standards have increased only slightly, and in some ways even decreased, since the 1980s. This implies total production has remained relatively flat even as the potential for production has skyrocketed due to the digital revolution.

    40 years ago people were predicting a 15 hour workweek as technology improved. And yet their predictions were actually too conservative when compared to the actual efficiency gains we have seen (around 1-2% per year for the past 40 years). So what are all these people actually doing? Non-productive work.

    Note I’m not implying that a 10 or 15 hour workweek is necessarily a good thing–it’s reasonable to believe that work is “good” for people–only that it is social rather than productive concerns that prevent it.

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
  70. @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    One reason that few young white people go into STEM is that there are fewer today who are capable of it. The birthrate of whites in the U.S. has been below replacement level since 1972, and perhaps earlier than that for college graduates. And as many have noted, even among whites, birthrates decline as education levels increase. Two generations of trends like this mean that the number of young white people with IQs above 120 is probably smaller today – in absolute terms – than it was 50 years ago, even as the total U.S. population has increased by about 130 million.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
  71. @Pericles

    We’re heading for financial disaster. These riots could continue on for a long time.

    • Replies: @Daniel H
    , @Shawn Returns
  72. @Elmer's Washable School Glue

    “The map is not the territory.” – Alfred Korzybski

    Theory is one thing, reality is something else. When machines produce goods, they are better than hand made goods via precision and repeatability. Goods can become less expensive and better simultaneously. Goods previously impossible to produce become commonplace. Automation has produced new wants by producing whole new categories of products.

    As workers are displaced, who pays for their upkeep? Currently there’s a huge welfare population of mostly lazy slobs or people so stupid they’re unemployable. The gov’t prevents them from starving by running up debt as part of the deficit spending which is right now coming to an end. If you haven’t noticed, the US economy is on life support and the prognosis is bad.

    Why would working people, regardless of hours worked, keep paying to keep others on the dole? Your utopia of machines taking over most labor means the bulk of the society is on the dole. That can’t work because those not on the dole will eventually decide to join them.

  73. @YetAnotherAnon

    Yep.

    I think they are archetypal antifa–the downwardly mobile children of elites, a consequence of an overproduction of elites.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
  74. @UK

    Having been cooped up, having little work or education to attend to, and being given close to free reign, it seems unlikely to me that these riots will burn themselves out soon.

  75. @AaronB

    Your 3% doesn’t include the truckers, mill operators, grocery clerks, food processors, restaurant workers, cashiers, etc. Your cherry picking of numbers doesn’t bolster your case.

    Although hard manual labor may be waning the new jobs are more cerebral. I’m a retired professional software developer. I know what it’s like to work through the night on a tough problem and realize what I’ve done when the sun informs me of the time.

    Why is it that your 3 day weekend and 4 hour work day never happened? I suspect it’s because people need to be productive. Those who like being on the dole will shortly discover they have a problem as their checks are going to purchase less as the economy winds down. The current rioting is just a small taste of what’s to come.

    There’s an old saying about keeping oneself off the streets and out of trouble. That’s what work does. Once people have no purpose they become problems. We don’t need any more problems.

  76. @AaronB

    I’ve heard the Office Space take on white collar work, and I’ve experienced some anecdotal support for it but most has been against. It’s hard to square with the obsessive drive for short-term profitability.

  77. nebulafox says:
    @Indiana Jack

    That’s baloney. You need an above average IQ to succeed in hard STEM, but not an insanely so one. An IQ of 115 puts you in the top 15% of the population, and I’d say that’s more than enough to succeed at most things in STEM if you are willing to put in the grinding. You’ll have to work harder than someone with an IQ of 130, but the real differentiating factor is hard work once you pass a basic level of intelligence.

    The real issue is that America has chosen to massively de-incentivize its own children from going into those fields. Why would you, when you could make way more money as a BS spewing MBA or lawyer that carries more social prestige: for far less work, on top of that? We’ve become a society that prefers to deal in words rather than deeds, focused on the next quarter rather than the next decade, and it shows.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Indiana Jack
    , @Znzn
  78. @bro3886

    Agreed. It was merely an observation.

  79. @Arclight

    Does anyone doubt that if these rioters were made up of angry Tea Partiers or 2A advocates that the mayors would have brought the hammer down in less than a day?

    More vitriol was directed at the peaceful re-openers than these violent destroyers. It’s not a rhetorical question–we know the answer, because both just happened.

    • Agree: UK, iffen
    • Replies: @res
  80. Daniel H says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    We’re heading for financial disaster. These riots could continue on for a long time.

    Do you think that this will be a disaster that will not only take down the lower 90% but will also reach deeply into that top decile and maybe into the 1% even? I dream.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  81. nebulafox says:
    @Buzz Mohawk

    Heheh. I am a failed theoretical physicist. That statement does betray the bias of what society has chosen to label “high-functioning autism”, and I’ve been indulging in way too much alcohol recently. So, OK, I concede that you are right: what I said is only strictly speaking true for me, and I make no claims for anybody else. And no, I flamed out thanks to addiction and mental issues that I have only recently addressed. I am just lucky to be alive and be getting another chance at all at this point. So, I will not claim to be an authority on the level of your wife who actually succeeded in getting her PhD.

    But nonetheless, yeah, I actually do know a decent bit of math. 😉

    You need a basic IQ level to truly master certain branches of mathematics, or go into STEM career feels. The more abstract it becomes, the higher it gets. No, a kid with an IQ of 95 is not going to become a successful engineer or scientist whatever you try, and no, the overwhelming majority of people even on higher IQ levels are frankly not interested in learning about fiber bundles, nor should you force them to be. But people are overestimating how important hard work relative to brilliance is in being able to learn math: you need more effort if you have a lower IQ, but that’s not the same as saying it is impossible until you go below a certain point. And that applies as much to learning basic probability in school as it does in learning college level mathematics. Insisting that basic mathematics and science is wasted on the average populace is dangerous. An innumerate populace is much easier to control and manipulate, and one wonders with our elites if that isn’t part of the point.

    (We have this strange attitude in the United States that if you cannot be at the top of a given field, you shouldn’t bother putting any effort into it. That’s one more manifestation of the general societal trend toward winner-take-all mechanisms that is proving to be so destructive.)

    I’m not accusing you of this, but people here act as though IQ is this immutable dharma that you cannot alter. This is just as dangerous as blank-slatism. With the right practice and training, people can be made to be 15, 20% brighter than they would be normally. Repeated enough on a society-wide basis, it could make a tremendous cumulative difference. This is the case even for lower-level professions. Just compare traveling in and out of airports in East Asia to dealing with the TSA: it makes a *massive* quality of difference in life if the people doing this aren’t functionally retarded. And with the current dysgenic trends we’ve got, it’s going to be much more important to stabilize the situation as much as we can while we work on longer term recovery.

    • Agree: AaronB
    • Thanks: Buzz Mohawk
    • Replies: @iffen
  82. @UK

    I’m pretty sure, and a quick look on the internet has confirmed it, that “usury” was traditionally defined as subjectively “high” interest rates in general.

    E.g US state self-described “usury laws” ban loans (secured and unsecured) with interest rates above a certain threshold.

    By “traditional” I was referring to Medieval and Renaissance Europe, not just 100 years ago in America. Should have been clearer. Extremely high interest rates are also immoral, but for totally different reasons. In any case, if you insist on calling the traditional definition of usury by some different name, by all means go ahead (the semantics aren’t really important).

    These points are contradictory. The possibility of personal bankruptcy means that a personal loan is not actually a share in their life.

    Any full recourse loan entails buying a share in the future value (e.g. productivity) of a person. That is, the debt is identified with the person, and not a possession. Since there is no property involved, what else could it be? The fact that a legal safety valve exists doesn’t change the implicit nature of usury any more than temporary instead of perpetual servitude changes the implicit nature of slavery. It limits the amount of evil, but doesn’t change the essence of the evil that is still committed.

    The people lending them money must think that they’ll get repaid, which is good enough for me. At least if it is never made my problem through the government bailing out the lenders.

    This is exactly the point. We can argue over whether the constant government bailouts are really needed to prevent financial collapse, but usury laws would prevent much of that instability in the first place. The bailouts are in large part a direct consequence of usurious lending.

    Obviously, as you recognise (-;, my point on mentioning “usury” was not to defend subjectively high loans but rather to highlight how a moral reaction against them can lead to people misunderstanding the equally strong moral hazard in interest rates that are too low.

    Yeah, and I don’t think our positions are ultimately all that far apart. It’s just quite annoying to me that the term usury has come to simply mean “high interest rates” because I find the original meaning much more insightful. And making all loans non-recourse would probably lead to higher interest rates FWIW.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @UK
  83. nebulafox says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    The decline of Qing China in the 19th Century is pretty instructive history because they had the same problem of elite overproduction. China had multiple vicious, severe civil wars during that time period, but the most costly of all-the single most deadly civil war of all time-was led by a failed Hakka exam candidate who had a mental breakdown.

    The Qing really should have fallen then. Who knows, maybe no CPC today if they did.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
  84. @Znzn

    “Lawyers and surgeons do not go rioting.”

    Er …

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/31/nyregion/nyc-protests-lawyer-molotov-cocktail.html

  85. nebulafox says:
    @Almost Missouri

    You remember those leaks showing the NPYD specifically being ordered to target right-wing groups and to ignore Antifa? It’s not shocking that in such a milieu, you get “respectable” people toying with street fighting, because they know that the consequences will always have a certain safety net.

    The tacit protection and support Antifa has in several blue cities from local authorities invariably reminds me of-Godwin’s Law-what the Nazi Party enjoyed starting out in Munich, particularly from the police, despite engaging early and often in acts of open terrorism. It was necessary for them even to get started. Hitler wasn’t even a German citizen at that point: they could have legally deported him to Austria anytime before 1925, when he chose to become stateless.

    If they are serious about anything (and they aren’t), the “alt-right” really should look more into the history of underground late 1800s/early 1900s left-wing radicals who didn’t enjoy the sympathy of local authorities, rather than fascists who did. That’s what their practical situation resembles.

    • Agree: iffen
  86. MBlanc46 says:
    @Pericles

    I’m far from convinced that the Dems are going to lose in NOV. But you may well be correct about the street-fighting Left. They now know that they have the riot immunity that blacks have had for fifty years.

    • Replies: @Pericles
  87. @LoutishAngloQuebecker

    This scenario is playing out across industries. Healthcare, utilities, manufacturing, etc.

    You mostly nailed it.

    I would only add that I’m seeing this same phenomenon all over the defense industry.

    The results will not be pretty for US military hegemony.

  88. @anon

    Ari Shaffir, truly a classic.

  89. @nebulafox

    I actually agree with all of the points that you raised. But they do not contradict anything that I wrote. In the 1969/70 school year, 2,889,000 young people graduated from high school. I do not know what their demographics were, but the total U.S. population at the time was 83.5% non-Hispanic white. If the demographics of the students graduating high school that year was the same, that would mean there were 2,412,315 non-Hispanic whites who graduated.

    For the 2019/2020 school year, it is estimated that there will be 3,700,000 young people graduating high school. The U.S. population today is 62.8% non-Hispanic white. If the current high school graduating class has the same demographics, there will be 2,323,600 young white people graduating from high school this year. In fact, since minorities are on average younger than whites, the actual number is almost certainly lower than that. I do not know the exact figure, but the school age population as a whole is only about half white.

    Even if there were no dysgenic trends at all, there are fewer young white people in America today than there were in 1970, in both absolute and relative numbers. Since this is true for the entire graduating class, the number is smaller whether we are talking about people with an IQ above 115 or above 130.

    https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d07/tables/dt07_100.asp

    https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=372

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_racial_and_ethnic_demographics_of_the_United_States#Historical_data_for_all_races_and_for_Hispanic_origin_(1610%E2%80%932010)

    • Replies: @nebulafox
  90. @UK

    It also needs to be recognised that many, many people are not capable of understanding what they are getting into with all sorts of loans. I therefore assume protecting the innumerate is why usury laws are still in place.

    If we were serious about that we’d provide a basic financial education in public schools rather than years of liberal brainwashing and indoctrination.

    • Replies: @Pericles
  91. nebulafox says:
    @Indiana Jack

    Yeah, I’m sorry if I’m coming off as overly defensive here. I just really have a thing about this notion that you need to a genius to understand physics or math. That’s just not true: I’m living proof. I was tested as having an IQ around 115-ish (I think, it’s been over a decade since I was evaluated). Solidly above average, but nothing even remotely approximating actually being gifted. I managed to learn quantum field theory, algebraic topology, exterior calculus, etc nonetheless. I was persistent and went after it, albeit extremely stupidly and with no systematic discipline at the time. And I’m going to do it again as I get my life out of the gutter. Having a higher IQ is equivalent to having abnormal processing power in your CPU. It’s cool to have, it can be helpful if deployed wisely, but it really should not be made into this holy altar, let alone define who you are: and that processing power just gives you the *ability* to comprehend things faster. It doesn’t necessarily mean you will, whether due to lack of creativity, lack of work ethic, or whatever. In mathematical terms: necessary but not sufficient.

    One thing I am curious about is how modern technology is altering our neural chemistry: and what effect this has on someone’s intelligence. You can control immigration, but you can’t control that.

    • Replies: @res
  92. @martin_2

    1) This is an excellent idea.

    2) This has never happened.

    Why not?

    Dunno. No percentage in anything other than identity politics for the leaders, I guess.

  93. “Gun rights are secure for the foreseeable future.”

    Biden and the Democrat House and Senate will begin disarming Americans immediately in February 2021 or so.

    so get what you can now. May 2020 had 3 million background checks, which is the third highest month ever. March 2020 had 3.2 million.

  94. @Almost Missouri

    New left vs old left.

    The old J left is in for a treat when they realize their pet minorities are not going to stay controlled, and their kids are just retarded looters.

  95. @prime noticer

    Trudeau recently banned all “assault” weapons, in the middle of the COVID lockdown. No response but from a few Libertardians whining on Facebook.

    On the plus side, the Conservatives have actually undone retarded Liberal gun grabs before (long gun registry).

    However we’ve also lost 10 or 15% of our white share since then.

    Non whites see guns as a scary tool whites might use to defend themselves. So they vote to take them away.

    Whites will continue to be punished until we stick up and act as a tribal group.

  96. Twinkie says:
    @prime noticer

    so get what you can now.

    Buy person-to-person if legal in your state. Get some PVC pipes.

    • Replies: @Rattus Norwegius
  97. UK says:
    @Elmer's Washable School Glue

    Do you have any source to back up your assertion that “traditionally” usury means a secured loan?

    Any full recourse loan entails buying a share in the future value (e.g. productivity) of a person. That is, the debt is identified with the person, and not a possession. Since there is no property involved, what else could it be

    What’s your position in negative equity in mortgages?

  98. Pericles says:
    @nebulafox

    So you will vote … Biden? Time to go with the strong, if senile, horse and smash some windows in solidarity with BLM?

    In times of chaos, people tend to want more law and order. I’d say the Democrats have a teeny tiny positioning problem in that the law and order types have nowhere to go except, maybe, Trump.

  99. iffen says:
    @nebulafox

    it’s going to be much more important to stabilize the situation as much as we can while we work on longer term recovery.

    Who’s working on this?

  100. Pericles says:
    @MBlanc46

    If nothing else, they have plenty of dirty tricks and don’t mind using them.

  101. Pericles says:
    @The Wild Geese Howard

    I think it would be a net win for society to standardize many sorts of contracts.

  102. @nebulafox

    You remember those leaks showing the NPYD specifically being ordered to target right-wing groups and to ignore Antifa?

    No, but I’d like to. Can you point me to some?

    the “alt-right” really should look more into the history of underground late 1800s/early 1900s left-wing radicals who didn’t enjoy the sympathy of local authorities

    Who do you have in mind here? Some of those of those supposedly outcast “late 1800s/early 1900s left-wing radicals” turn out to have had much more official backing than any fascists ever did.

  103. Znzn says:
    @nebulafox

    Minimum vs good? Minimum IQ to be good lawyer is 115, if you want to be the next Harvey Specter you need more than that, way more, minimum IQ to pass the CFA is probably 120 or more, if you want to make anything more than spaghetti code you more than an IQ of 115, minimum IQ to be mediocrely competent programmer is 130 or above, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk has an IQ of 150, so if you to be the next them you need an IQ of that level, if you want to be a decent specialist, such as a neurologist, or a cardiologist, you probably need a 130 at a minimum, a data scientist needs an IQ of about 135 or maybe 140 minimum, so to get a decent wage nowadays requires you to have an IQ of 130 at least, or preferably 140, so to get a decent wage requires a genius IQ, or something approaching genius IQ, just like the people here who say that if you are healthy, you do need to worry about coronavirus virus have a definition of healthy that means someone who runs a marathon or a half every week and has a 10 percent body fat, with physical fitness akin to Bruce Wayne, a Formula 1 driver or a professional athlete, who lifts 500 pounds at the gym everyday.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
  104. I am both black and sympathetic to BLM and it pains me to say this but it’s time for Trump to call in the military and instigate martial law to get these cities and riots under control.

    • Replies: @UK
    , @Audacious Epigone
  105. res says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    Did anyone in the MSM call the re-opening protests “riots”? If so, that would be great meme fodder to compare and contrast with the current “peaceful protests.”

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  106. res says:
    @nebulafox

    I was tested as having an IQ around 115-ish (I think, it’s been over a decade since I was evaluated).

    Did you take the SATs and/or GRE? If so, were those results (especially the math) in line with a 115 estimate for your IQ?

    Was the IQ test before or after the problems which ended your theoretical physics career? Do you remember which IQ test you took? I would be curious about the verbal/math/spatial balance of it.

    P.S. Good luck to you in the process of rebuilding your life. I know a bit about that experience.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
  107. res says:
    @martin_2

    My cynical side wonders if the way these cases are handled is designed to discredit the whole idea of reforming the police. Which would certainly explain what you are observing.

  108. @RoatanBill

    All you’re doing is repeating the assertion, without empirical evidence, for the existence of observations that have been wrongly attributed.

    An assertion you make, ironically, with zero evidence.

    Plasma physics has a completely different take on these objects and they do have lab experiments to back up their interpretations.

    ORLY?  What precisely IS the plasma physics explanation for an object pulsing at a 1.4 msec rate, across the EM spectrum, at the power level observed (note that VLBI provides extremely accurate parallalax distance measurement and thus absolute luminosity)?  Note that the Crab Nebula pulsar has been observed pulsing by telescope, using a stroboscope and the Mark 1 eyeball.  What IS the plasma physics explanation for stars being held in very tight orbits at high speeds in galactic cores, including our own?  What provides the required centripetal force?  Put it in your own words to prove you actually understand it.  (Hint:  you don’t.)

    Now, please explain how my ‘keen observation’ can in any way lead you to state that I’m uncultured. Another assertion with no proof on your part.

    You haven’t even a nodding acquaintance with the culture of science.  You found some charlatan pushing a bunch of nonsense and decided that you’d sound cool and contrarian if you repeated it.  You’re a fool.

    • Replies: @RoatanBill
  109. @Mr. Rational

    I see you like to use the ad hominem to make your case.

    “When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the losers.” – Socrates

    I’m an electrical engineer / professional software developer. I discovered the thunderbolts.info site over a decade ago and it has a completely different take on how cosmology works using plasma physics as opposed to gravity as the prime mover. They’re predictions of what was to be found on comet and other missions has been consistently accurate and the cosmologists have been consistently wrong.

    But I won’t continue this conversation with someone that considers name calling and personal attacks culturally OK.

    • Replies: @Mr. Rational
  110. UK says:
    @Thatsfuqqed

    I am sympathetic to them too.

    They are obviously both suffering and channeling their communities’ suffering, but I don’t think they have the slightest clue as to the real sources of that pain.

    Instead they externalise it onto the (still less than ideal) police, and this leads them to the ridiculous position of demanding the “defunding of [those] police”.

    If that were to happen then their suffering would multiply many times over, as these riots will potentially prove.

    • Agree: AaronB
    • Replies: @AaronB
  111. @Twinkie

    What is PVC pipes usefull for?

    • Replies: @Twinkie
  112. @UK

    Do you have any source to back up your assertion that “traditionally” usury means a secured loan?

    I assume you made a typo and meant “unsecured loan.” Here is St. Thomas Aquinas on the subject:

    To take usury for money lent is unjust in itself, because this is to sell what does not exist, and this evidently leads to inequality which is contrary to justice… On the other hand, there are things the use of which does not consist in their consumption: thus to use a house is to dwell in it, not to destroy it. Wherefore in such things both may be granted: for instance, one man may hand over to another the ownership of his house while reserving to himself the use of it for a time, or vice versa, he may grant the use of the house, while retaining the ownership. For this reason a man may lawfully make a charge for the use of his house, and, besides this, revendicate the house from the person to whom he has granted its use, as happens in renting and letting a house.

    So loaning “money” is wrong, but “making a charge for use of a house” (financially identical to a mortgage) is ok.

    What’s your position in negative equity in mortgages?

    If a loan is truly tied to an asset and not to a person, then the value of the loan will decrease if the value of the property does. So “negative equity” will never occur (hence the housing bubble would have been much less of an issue.)

  113. @RoatanBill

    Our number one export is dollars. we live beyond our means because we have the global reserve currency. We have the global reserve currency because we developed nukes first, a tremendous return on investment, which allows us to send dollars overseas in return for stuff. This destroys the industrial economy in favor of fluff, but it makes people who have access to that currency first fabulously wealthy. (This is known as Triffin’s Paradox I assume you know it; click the link if not.) They REALLY do not want the unearned gravy train to end, so they wind up burning all the furniture to keep the fires of the economic engine burning. First we burned through the stable employment and high wages of the working class; next we started chipping away at the lower middle class. Now with the lockdown we’ve “proved” we don’t need centralized office space in cities like NYC; the next step is to move the work from being done at home in the NYC suburbs to being done in Bulgaria and Poland. Then the upper middle class gets to revolt, but they won’t.

    If we give up the global reserve currency, we are instantly poorer as we have to pay for all the shit we get now in return for debt/dollars. If we don’t give up the global reserve currency, we gradually immiserate a larger and larger segment of the population while maintaining higher average (but lower median) wealth, and we get a revolution.

    In order to be taken seriously to hold on to the reserve currency, we have to spend enough money to go boss around other countries; that $1trln we spend on defense, intelligence, veterans affairs, and interest on military debt each year goes to prop up the system so we can continue to harvest reserve currency profits from the rest of the world for the benefit of the people who get the money first. Except we are now at the point in the USA where the interest on the Federal Debt is equal to the annual deficit, so there’s no net funds flowing from borrowing. (One way to get around that: shock borrow $3trln like we did this year) That threatens to constrain the overall budget, as the interest begins to eat other items in the national account. SS and Medicare are statutory, and NO politician is going to cut them at risk of ending his career. By contrast, the $750bln for “defense” plus the $90bln for “intelligence” COULD, in theory, be cut, and the people who receive the gravy from that gravy train know it.

    Enter Donald Trump, who mentioned in 2015 at a Republican debate that he thought that the $4trln we spent on Iraq was a colossal waste of money, and wouldn’t we be better off if we had spent that money HERE, on infrastructure. This constitutes a threat to the military-industrial complex which already knows it’s going to bear the brunt of budget cuts, and they need to find a way to keep him from leaving the middle east. Cue three years of Russiagate. Trump agrees to INCREASE defense spending by $50bln, and I think they back off.

  114. AaronB says:
    @UK

    They are obviously both suffering and channeling their communities’ suffering, but I don’t think they have the slightest clue as to the real sources of that pain

    I think the majority of people in our hyper-competitive, late stage capitalist society are suffering right now, but no one really understands why.

    So everyone has their pet solution. China should be our model (it’s actually worse than us). It’s the blacks. Its the Jews. Its white supremacy. It’s the existence of Israel. Etc, etc.

    But its late stage global technological capitalism that we suffer from, which is now global. It says we must be extremely tense and tightly wound up all the time, try and control things, be intensely serious, be extremely competitive, focus on work and not enjoy life, focus on the future, develop our egos.

    The pressure just builds and builds. The elites can never rest on their laurels but constantly earn and do more. They are more miserable than the poor.

    The good thing is that nothing really needs to happen to burst this giant bubble of pressure – it is an illusion. It is only as real as you let yourself think it is. You could, at any moment, just laugh at it all.

    These riots are a rejection of the tightly wound up and high strung attitude civilization wants you to have – Floyds death was only a catalyst for simmering discontent.

    All civilizations necessarily experience this kind of thing periodically – there has never been a high civilization in the history of the world that did not experience periodic civil unrest, civil wars, or external wars.

    Read the history of China or Japan or Europe. Periodic civil discontent, civil war, or war.

    Its the nature of civilization itself to breed discontent – Freud analyzed this. It led him to suggest a Thanatos instinct.

    Civilization involves repression – take that too far, and every civilization always does, and people become miserable and unfree, even in the midst of abundance and no compelling injustice in the system. They need the outlet of foreign wars or adventures, of religion and retreat from the mundane world. Or, they need a less repressive civilization, which simply means a more relaxed and balanced one, which does occur, but never lasts.

    We thought our unprecedented material abundance would pacify people and break this pattern. We now know material abundance is not the only thing people want.

    • Replies: @iffen
  115. @nebulafox

    The tacit protection and support Antifa has in several blue cities from local authorities invariably reminds me of-Godwin’s Law-what the Nazi Party enjoyed starting out in Munich, particularly from the police, despite engaging early and often in acts of open terrorism.

    That’s not the way it was observed by the right-wing anti-Nazi author of the book Defying Hitler. He describes a situation where Red terrorists harass and intimidate the burghers in the street in Germany, and the police do nothing to clamp down on the Red menace. The Nazis with the Brownshirts, by contrast, were very happy to brawl with the Reds on behalf of the burghers. That’s how a party of losers gradually gains the support of normal, middle-class people.

    Watching Antifa run wild since 2016, that has been my biggest worry about the USA. As Alinsky wrote, the action is the reaction. The crackdown on left wing violence by right wing toughs because of the discipline gap from lack of effort by the current government means you actually could get a Nazi-style takeover in the USA. Except this time the Nazis will have nukes and be unassailable.

    • Replies: @iffen
    , @nebulafox
  116. @TomSchmidt

    Plausible.

    However, the rest of the world is no longer that interested in doing business with the US $ as the intermediary trading vehicle, so the need for US $ is diminishing over time. Those US $ eventually and rather quickly get repatriated to the US where more US $ chase a rather fixed amount of goods and services resulting in price inflation.

    This is inevitable. With the Fed creating new currency at a record rate, hyperinflation is the logical outcome with a burst of deflationary activity as the appetizer. Stuff will be sold at record low prices as people dump their junk (boats, exotic cars, planes, 2nd homes, etc) looking for cash and their next meal. Once that burst of panic selling subsides, the hyperinflation becomes the dominant factor.

    This story has played out so often surely everyone has heard the tune.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  117. iffen says:
    @TomSchmidt

    The crackdown on left wing violence by right wing toughs

    Where and when was this? I missed it.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  118. @TomSchmidt

    ….that $1trln we spend on defense, intelligence, veterans affairs, and interest on military debt each year goes to prop up the system…

    Great, except that 75-80% of that $1T goes to waste and graft every year.

    Source: Have worked in the defense industry for 2 decades.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  119. @Daniel H

    I don’t think so. I expect an increase in consumer prices as wages stagnate and the dollar weakens. If the necessities double in price, that means nothing to the 1%. For the bottom quintile, though, it’s ruinous.

  120. @Thatsfuqqed

    The political problem is that doing so bails Democrat mayors out and it’s an election year. It’s rotten, but it’s real.

  121. @res

    Heh, probably. Matt Walsh had a good thread bringing several of the media descriptions of the re-open protests together and comparing them to the silence or solidarity from the media with regards to these fatal riots.

  122. @RoatanBill

    I see you like to use the ad hominem to make your case.

    Knew you’d refuse to even make a token attempt at a real answer.  All you “alternative physics” clowns are the same.

    I’m an electrical engineer / professional software developer.

    Much the same here, but I’m not cut from the typical mold.  I’ve seen lots of crank stuff from engineers, since the days of Usenet (talk about embarrassing).  You seem to be following that track though.

    I discovered the thunderbolts.info site over a decade ago and it has a completely different take on how cosmology works using plasma physics as opposed to gravity as the prime mover.

    Pretty sure I’ve heard of them before.  I went to check them out again, and lo and behold, they deal in YouTube videos rather than written papers.  A video is time-consuming to watch, very difficult to reference for rebuttal (you have to do your own transcription), and is the preferred means of media consumption for people who don’t read.

    This recent post is typical of the genre.  Titled “Electric Asteroid Breaks the Rules”, it would take 10 minutes to watch and at least an hour to transcribe and rebut the nonsense claims in it.  They post as video because (a) it uses flashy, hypnotic images to mesmerize the audience, and (b) it places ridiculous burdens on anyone who’d try to refute them; if they posted as text, it would be the work of a few seconds to cut/paste and cite sources proving them wrong.  How do you check the math and follow the citations in a video?  They probably don’t have any.  Did you notice that that video names 4 executive producers?  Whole bunch of money producing propaganda.  Why?  Turn out a population that’s been mentally crippled and can’t think straight to save their lives.  Easily fooled is easily controlled.

    They’re predictions of what was to be found on comet and other missions has been consistently accurate and the cosmologists have been consistently wrong.

    Now I know what kind of crank you are, at least.

  123. nebulafox says:
    @Almost Missouri

    Derb covered it in late 2018. I wish I could give you more, but it seems Google memory-holed the stuff I remember reading at the time.

    Or, alternative, you can read the NYT, whose version of events (thought Antifa doesn’t talk to police…) lampshades the barely veiled admiration for Antifa found among media and political cognoscenti in urban areas.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/08/nyregion/proud-boys-antifa-trial.html

    >Who do you have in mind here? Some of those of those supposedly outcast “late 1800s/early 1900s left-wing radicals” turn out to have had much more official backing than any fascists ever did.

    The Bolsheviks were not granted that kind of official state backing until well into WWI, and the Germans planned on turning around and moving in to crush them like a bug after the Western Front was concluded: Lenin was a disabling agent, nobody seriously expected he’d actually take power until they did. Had the US not intervened, that’s probably what would have happened.

    As I’ve mentioned in previous comments, they Bolsheviks were on the verge of nearly collapsing before the war rescued them, but they managed to survive nonetheless. If I were on the alt-right, I’d say it is worth taking a look at what they did, and more importantly, what not to do: one of the reasons left-wing movements tended to have a hard time was vicious infighting over petty ideological matters. And they were just one faction out of many in the dissident Russian left at the time: it’s hard to remember, because the Bolsheviks suppressed ideological rivals just as much (search for Nestor Makhno for one example-they turned on him immediately after defeating the Whites) as much as ideological enemies when they took power. Lenin had no time for anybody not on board with his program 100%.

    China’s another great example: Chiang Kai-Shek allied with the Shanghai underworld as well as local plutocrats to launch some very nasty purges that nearly exterminated the CCP before anybody outside the USSR and China heard of it. How they survived-including their emphasis on building favorable ties with peasants over the next decade-is worth a look.

    • Replies: @Almost Missouri
  124. nebulafox says:
    @Almost Missouri

    Derb covered it in late 2018. I wish I could give you more, but it seems Google memory-holed the stuff I remember reading at the time.

    Or, alternative, you can read the NYT, whose version of events (thought Antifa doesn’t talk to police…) lampshades the barely veiled admiration for Antifa found among media and political cognoscenti in urban areas.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/08/nyregion/proud-boys-antifa-trial.html

    >Who do you have in mind here? Some of those of those supposedly outcast “late 1800s/early 1900s left-wing radicals” turn out to have had much more official backing than any fascists ever did.

    The Bolsheviks were not granted that kind of official state backing until well into WWI, and the Germans planned on turning around and moving in to crush them like a bug after the Western Front was concluded: Lenin was a disabling agent, nobody seriously expected he’d actually take power until they did. Had the US not intervened, that’s probably what would have happened.

    As I’ve mentioned in previous comments, they Bolsheviks were on the verge of nearly collapsing before the war rescued them, but they managed to survive nonetheless. If I were on the alt-right, I’d say it is worth taking a look at what they did, and more importantly, what not to do: one of the reasons left-wing movements tended to have a hard time was vicious infighting over petty ideological matters. And they were just one faction out of many in the dissident Russian left at the time: it’s hard to remember, because the Bolsheviks suppressed ideological rivals just as much (search for Nestor Makhno for one example-they turned on him immediately after defeating the Whites) as much as ideological enemies when they took power. Lenin had no time for anybody not on board with his program 100%.

    China’s another great example: Chiang Kai-Shek allied with the Shanghai underworld as well as local plutocrats to launch some very nasty purges that nearly exterminated the CCP before anybody outside the USSR and China heard of it. How they survived-including their emphasis on building favorable ties with peasants over the next decade-is worth a look.

  125. nebulafox says:
    @Almost Missouri

    Derb covered it in late 2018. I wish I could give you more, but it seems Google memory-holed the stuff I remember reading at the time.

    Or, alternative, you can read the NYT, whose version of events (thought Antifa doesn’t talk to police…) lampshades the barely veiled admiration for Antifa found among media and political cognoscenti in urban areas.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/08/nyregion/proud-boys-antifa-trial.html

    >Who do you have in mind here? Some of those of those supposedly outcast “late 1800s/early 1900s left-wing radicals” turn out to have had much more official backing than any fascists ever did.

    The Bolsheviks were not granted that kind of official state backing until well into WWI, and the Germans planned on turning around and moving in to crush them like a bug after the Western Front was concluded: Lenin was a disabling agent, nobody seriously expected he’d actually take power until they did. Had the US not intervened, that’s probably what would have happened.

    As I’ve mentioned in previous comments, they Bolsheviks were on the verge of nearly collapsing before the war rescued them, but they managed to survive nonetheless. If I were on the alt-right, I’d say it is worth taking a look at what they did, and more importantly, what not to do: one of the reasons left-wing movements tended to have a hard time was vicious infighting over petty ideological matters. And they were just one faction out of many in the dissident Russian left at the time: it’s hard to remember, because the Bolsheviks suppressed ideological rivals just as much (search for Nestor Makhno for one example-they turned on him immediately after defeating the Whites) as much as ideological enemies when they took power. Lenin had no time for anybody not on board with his program 100%.

    China’s another great example: Chiang Kai-Shek allied with the Shanghai underworld as well as local plutocrats to launch some very nasty purges that nearly exterminated the CCP before anybody outside the USSR and China heard of it. How they survived-including their emphasis on building favorable ties with peasants over the next decade-is worth a look.

    • Replies: @Johann Ricke
  126. nebulafox says:
    @res

    No idea if it accurately reflects anything. I’m just saying what happened. To take your questions one at a time:

    1) The IQ test came in high school, but the underlying problems were already there, so it doesn’t make much of a difference to me. I don’t remember anything specific about the IQ test’s brand or questions. I do remember a massive split (40-50 points) between verbal and performance: I don’t recall a mathematical section. I took it when I was being forcibly evaluated (had gotten into trouble) and none too happy about it, so I wasn’t paying attention much. One other complicating factor might have been broader immaturity and underdevelopment, mentally and emotionally. I was more or less on the level of an 12-13 year old when I was 18-19 years old. I wasn’t really a bad kid, or even spoiled in the classical sense, but definitely very, very behind where I needed to be.

    2) I lived in the interior of the US, so I took the ACT, not the SAT. Because I was an idiot, it never occurred to me to systematically study and work hard, but I don’t think prepping would have changed the score much given my underlying impulsivity issues. I’m not going to post my exact score here, but I’ll say that I scored somewhere above 30 and below 36. I do remember getting a higher score (near-perfect or perfect, I don’t recall exactly) on the math section, and a lower score on science that canceled that out. My English and reading scores were in between, and were around my total. It is worth pointing out that the science section on the ACT, something the SAT does not have, is mostly graph-reading and related stuff, not actual science. I had the attention span of a mosquito at the time, so the nature of the science section led to predictable stupid mistakes there in particular. On the other hand, though, the SAT docked you for stupid mistakes back in the day. So, I’m not sure how much my score would have changed if I took the SAT.

    The IQ test’s accuracy… I don’t know, and to be honest, I don’t really care, for two reasons. First, if it is something I can change at this point, then doing the stuff I actually like doing mentally rather than doping my brain out is going to improve it over the years. If not, then it isn’t something I can alter and therefore there is no point in thinking about further. Second, it’s not really relevant in everything in life outside of the rate and depth learning stuff, which is a huge part of what makes me happy, but hardly the whole of life. There’s working out, there’s getting laid, there’s making friends, there’s climbing mountains. Plenty to do, way too much to do to waste your time obsessing about questions of IQ. I’ve basically missed out on life so far. I can’t get the last decade back, but I can live life forward from now with maximal intensity, because any amount of pain or effort feels almost pleasurable compared to the half-dead feeling that has been the norm so far.

    >P.S. Good luck to you in the process of rebuilding your life. I know a bit about that experience.

    Thanks. A lot of what I’ve wanted to do has been postponed due to near constant personal issues, some beyond my control, some my own fault. But I’m finally starting to make progress.

    • Replies: @res
  127. nebulafox says:
    @Znzn

    Define “good”. I’ve mentioned in previous posts that for the really abstract, mathematically foundational stuff, you probably need a higher IQ than what I’ve mentioned. But the overwhelming majority of physicists don’t do that, even theorists, many of whom are more akin to computational specialists these days: knowing your way around a supercomputer is just as vital, perhaps moreso, than knowing your group theory. More broadly speaking, to be at the absolute top of your field in something like physics, you need both the work ethic and the intellectual firepower. All the greats worked insanely hard, often compulsively. To do decently in your field, you need the work ethic and a lesser degree of intellectual firepower.

    The problem is that we’ve created a world where being average earns you roughly the same return as being below average. Don’t be surprised when people who might make the top 20% if they work hard, but have little chance of making the top 5% regardless of what they try, pick up on that and draw the logical conclusion that trying hard is a sucker’s game.

    And nitpick: “data scientist” is, more often than not, just corporate-speak for programmers who happen to use numerical and AI packages, and have a basic understanding of probability and statistics. 😉

    • Replies: @Daniel H
  128. @iffen

    I gave you the reference. The Holocaust museum has a different take, while admitting that Nazis and Communists did in fact battle on the streets, but claiming the Nazis started everything.

    https://www.ushmm.org/propaganda/archive/poster-national-socialism/

    • Replies: @iffen
  129. @The Wild Geese Howard

    If 80% is waste, could we defend the country spending only 100bln a year? You’d lose your job, of course, and I might also, given the number of GI Bill students I’ve had. But the cut might save the system.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
  130. @RoatanBill

    I’ve long thought hyperinflation was the only way to get out from under the debts that encumber us all. Especially things like the IL pensions which cannot be abrogated. Recall that Trump signed the 2017 tax bill that explicitly said that Chained CPI would be the official measure of inflation. It understates inflation even more than the current measure. Let tax rates bracket creep up while SS payments do not rise as much (or IL pensions) and you can pay off a lot of debts.

    But the deflation from debt destruction and from declining velocity of money has stopped it. Maybe it will continue to do so: the Fed has been desperate to increase inflation for years.

    This article is a great read in this vein:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-stunning-chart-blows-all-modern-central-banking

    see chart 5, especially.

  131. nebulafox says:
    @TomSchmidt

    I never implied that there wasn’t a real left-wing radical issue in Germany that was partly responsible for the rise of the far-right. What was different was the level of tacit toleration/support they received from power structures relative to their right-wing counterparts. Ernst Pöhner-Munich’s police chief in the immediate postwar period-was particularly open in his support for both Organisation Consul and the fledgling National Socialist Party.

    In the contemporary US, it is largely the other way around, at least in coastal urban areas. It is what it is.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  132. Twinkie says:
    @Rattus Norwegius

    Inexpensive, weather-resistant material for caching.

  133. Twinkie says:
    @TomSchmidt

    the next step is to move the work from being done at home in the NYC suburbs to being done in Bulgaria and Poland.

    We should be so lucky. It’s not going to be Poland – it will be India and the like.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
  134. Twinkie says:
    @TomSchmidt

    We can start by having the DoD buy more off-the-shelf.

  135. iffen says:
    @AaronB

    So everyone has their pet solution. China should be our model (it’s actually worse than us). It’s the blacks. Its the Jews. Its white supremacy. It’s the existence of Israel. Etc, etc.

    You forgot the acute shortage of moonbeams in jars.

  136. iffen says:
    @TomSchmidt

    My mistake, when you wrote current government, I thought ….

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  137. nebulafox says:
    @Twinkie

    In more ways than one. Poland produces very high-quality programmers, especially in compilers or in GPU programming: lot of Polish guys working for NVIDIA. The guy to go for anything Haskell or category theory in CS related is a Polish ex-physicist who worked from Microsoft and then started up his own business. I saw him talk in Bellevue and Seattle a couple of times. Absolutely brilliant dude.

    Indians… are variable. To put it very, very mildly. But they’ll do just about anything to avoid being sent back to India, which is what counts for many, among other factors. (More likely to speak English.) You can’t pull that stunt with the Chinese like you could 20 years ago because China’s not a 3rd World craphole anymore and there are usually more opportunities there anyway, so I expect the focus of Big Tech on India is just going to increase even more.

  138. @iffen

    Yes, what I thought I wrote and what appeared in writing did not exactly correspond.

    • Replies: @iffen
  139. res says:
    @nebulafox

    Thanks for your reply! The IQ/ACT information was about what I expected. Verbally tilted IQ test given to someone with a high M lower V profile (and perhaps a memory not working well for the science?). My guess is that is a big part of the story behind Feynman’s 123/125 IQ score:
    http://www.eoht.info/page/Feynman%27s+IQ

    Did the test administrators do anything in reaction to your IQ test results? That verbal/performance split seems like it should have been a good clue towards helping you for a thoughtful psychologist.

    Just be aware that your profile is not typical. Just because you could do theoretical physics with a measured IQ of 115 does not mean others with the same measured IQ will have the same experience. Regardless of how hard they work. Hard work matters, but there is more to doing high level math/physics than that IMHO.

    Glad to hear you are making progress. That is a big deal. Positive feedback loops can help very much.

    P.S. For some perspective, here are ACT percentiles for both the subtests and composite:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)#Score_cumulative_percentages_and_comparison_with_SAT
    For the ACT composite 31 is 96th percentile and 35 is 99.9th percentile (of test takers, which means your percentile in the general population would probably be higher). In comparison, a 115 IQ is 1 SD or about 84th percentile. It seems clear you underperformed on that IQ test. This table gives 96% IQ as 126 and 99.9% IQ as 146:
    https://www.iqcomparisonsite.com/iqtable.aspx
    Also, 34-36 ACT math is 99th percentile.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
  140. @Audacious Epigone

    I have all my retirement in an S & P index fund. Many would consider this a bad move. Where would you suggest I put my money? 38, $70k in fund.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  141. Daniel H says:
    @nebulafox

    and have a basic understanding of probability and statistics. 😉

    Ha, ha. A basic understanding or probability and statistics is worse/more dangerous than none.

  142. @nebulafox

    Derb covered it in late 2018. I wish I could give you more, but it seems Google memory-holed the stuff I remember reading at the time.

    This?

    https://www.johnderbyshire.com/Opinions/RadioDerb/2018-10-19.html#03

  143. iffen says:
    @TomSchmidt

    Happens to me all the time.

  144. nebulafox says:
    @res

    But the weird thing was, Res, it was verbal that was way higher than performance. (Maybe that’s why category theory seems cool to me.) That’s why I have a hard time taking that test seriously. For Chrissakes, I couldn’t even speak in proper sentences until my parents sent me to a speech pathologist when I was 5. I still struggle with verbal communication to this day: that’s why writing on places like here is cathartic, I can communicate my thoughts via writing in a way I never can in speech.

    BTW: even if I’m willing to grant that the test result might not be accurate, I’m no Feynman. I’m not even remotely a Polymath or a PhysicistDave. 🙂

    >Did the test administrators do anything in reaction to your IQ test results?

    No.

    >Just be aware that your profile is not typical. Just because you could do theoretical physics with a measured IQ of 115 does not mean others with the same measured IQ will have the same experience. Regardless of how hard they work. Hard work matters, but there is more to doing high level math/physics than that IMHO.

    I’d say there’s a definite difference in IQ requirement between the heavy duty mathematical stuff-think general relativity or the foundations of quantum mechanics-and every other field, whether we’re talking about primarily computationally oriented theory or experiment. The bar for the latter is well above average, no question, but nowhere near genius.

    >Glad to hear you are making progress. That is a big deal. Positive feedback loops can help very much.

    Certainly hope so. I’m getting older and running out of time to rehaul my life. Not the first time I’ve tried this-crucial I get something going this time around.

    >For the ACT composite 31 is 96th percentile and 35 is 99.9th percentile (of test takers, which means your percentile in the general population would probably be higher). In comparison, a 115 IQ is 1 SD or about 84th percentile. It seems clear you underperformed on that IQ test. This table gives 96% IQ as 126 and 99.9% IQ as 146:

    Isn’t the SAT a relatively harder test? (They are both jokes compared to what I’ve seen in Asia…)

    I’m reading Karlin’s article on this topic, Idiocy of the Average. It’s interesting to think of how my own perspective is probably warped because I never really had any friends to compare myself to, and as a kid, you don’t really objective compare your own intelligence to your parents.

    Still, but there’s another way to interpret that: by practicing and grinding, you do better on IQ or standardized tests. There’s hard limits on this, to be absolutely sure: a kid with a base score of 20 isn’t going to be scoring perfectly no matter how you coach him. But he can improve his score. Same thing with IQ tests. How much of that is coaching vs. genuinely getting smarter as you practice discerning patterns in math or reading?

    This goes both ways: I’m sure my IQ is a lot lower right now after years of addiction and generally doing nothing. How much it can improve remains to be seen.

    • Replies: @iffen
    , @res
  145. iffen says:
    @nebulafox

    Quit worrying about your IQ. It’s kind of like pecker length. You are born with it and it declines as you age.

  146. res says:
    @nebulafox

    But the weird thing was, Res, it was verbal that was way higher than performance.

    That is weird. I assumed the opposite because (I think) you did not say clearly one way or the other. The verbal/performance split makes it sound like the test was the WAIS
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wechsler_Adult_Intelligence_Scale
    Looking more closely at the subtest composition it makes a bit more sense seeing arithmetic and digit span under verbal.

    If you are interested and haven’t done so already, it might be worth asking about this in James Thompson’s blog. He (and some of the commenters, especially some of the occasional commenters) have deeper background in IQ tests than I do.

    I’d say there’s a definite difference in IQ requirement between the heavy duty mathematical stuff-think general relativity or the foundations of quantum mechanics-and every other field, whether we’re talking about primarily computationally oriented theory or experiment. The bar for the latter is well above average, no question, but nowhere near genius.

    I’m having trouble following the references. Which do you mean by “latter”? My background is engineering which I would expect to have (relative to those) less demanding math, but even there you would see some people with ~130 IQs having trouble with the more math-centric upper level classes–even if they were willing to work hard.

    Isn’t the SAT a relatively harder test? (They are both jokes compared to what I’ve seen in Asia…)

    I’m not sure about right now. This page indicates ACT scores of 33/34/35/36 are top 1.41/1.14/0.78/0.195% respectively.
    https://blog.prepscholar.com/how-many-people-get-a-34-35-36-on-the-act-score-breakdown
    This page indicates the 2400 point version of the SAT had a bit more ceiling and resolution.
    https://blog.prepscholar.com/on-the-sat-how-many-people-get-2200-2300-or-above-2400

    The pre-1995 SAT had significantly more ceiling–only about 10 people a year scored 1600.

    I’m reading Karlin’s article on this topic, Idiocy of the Average. It’s interesting to think of how my own perspective is probably warped because I never really had any friends to compare myself to, and as a kid, you don’t really objective compare your own intelligence to your parents.

    That would be difficult. As an adult, do you have any sense if either of your parents had math ability (or other intellectual traits) like yours?

    One thing worth considering about Karlin’s article is mapping the US results to the percentage of people attending college. I find that makes for a depressing perspective.

    P.S. Something to be said for iffen’s take (don’t worry about your IQ), but I think it is worthwhile trying to understand one’s strengths and weaknesses and how they relate to those of other people.

  147. @nebulafox

    China’s another great example: Chiang Kai-Shek allied with the Shanghai underworld as well as local plutocrats to launch some very nasty purges that nearly exterminated the CCP before anybody outside the USSR and China heard of it. How they survived-including their emphasis on building favorable ties with peasants over the next decade-is worth a look.

    How they survived, was the Japanese invaded China, and Chiang Kai-shek had to take his eye off the ball, re eliminating the Communists. Chiang not only lost 10x the men the Communists did in fighting the Japanese, he lost the cream of his men, including an entire class of Republican China’s West Point, the Whampoa Academy. I read somewhere that the Japanese also deliberately built up the Communists after their surrender, but before the actual transfer of power to the Nationalists. If Tokyo is ever nuked by Communist China, you might say what goes around, comes around.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
  148. nebulafox says:

    >Which do you mean by “latter”?

    Experimentalists and theorists with a heavy computational bent: which are the overwhelming majority of physicists. I get the sense in pop culture most physicists are portrayed as doing string theory. That’s like saying most programmers do cutting-edge compiler work or algorithm design.

    >My background is engineering which I would expect to have (relative to those) less demanding math, but even there you would see some people with ~130 IQs having trouble with the more math-centric upper level classes–even if they were willing to work hard.

    It’s a different kind of math, as well. J. Robert Oppenheimer was infamous for being terrible at basic computations even as he used the most exotic mathematical techniques he could find. I don’t think he would have done well as an engineer.

    >That would be difficult. As an adult, do you have any sense if either of your parents had math ability (or other intellectual traits) like yours?

    Nothing from my parents, but I was told I had a lot in common with my late grandfather, in terms of looks and personality as well as interests. Genetics are funny sometimes: you can get kids that resemble your own parent more than you.

    I did get a good, nice sense of bull-headedness from my parents that has kept me going, though. 🙂

    >P.S. Something to be said for iffen’s take (don’t worry about your IQ), but I think it is worthwhile trying to understand one’s strengths and weaknesses and how they relate to those of other people.

    Iffen’s take is my own position: I mentioned it in my first response. But it is interesting to talk to someone well-versed in this topic, so why not?

    • Agree: iffen
    • Replies: @res
  149. nebulafox says:
    @Johann Ricke

    The Japanese invasion of China is the Asian version of the Nazis setting out to exterminate Bolshevism and instead bringing it to the heart of Europe, and it’s entirely true that Mao would have been a historical footnote if that never happened. The war gave him a chance to hoard his strength while Chiang not just took on the IJA, but dealt with a host of other issues. Some were of his own making, particularly after 1945, but some weren’t: although corruption always did exist within the KMT, for example, it only reached state-paralyzing levels when the economy in KMT-controlled China collapsed once and for all with resulting hyperinflation in 1943. That wasn’t the KMT’s fault: that was the Japanese’s fault.

    (South Vietnam fell into the exact same trap 30 years later with the oil shocks: you have an underlying level of corruption which sucks, but is par for the course on developing world standards and is functional. Then it suddenly explodes due to economic contraction at the same time the state is facing an intensified ideological challenge.)

    Nevertheless, strokes of immense luck are useless if you don’t pounce on them and utilize them. I don’t mean this in a military sense: the only real offensive the Communists launched against the IJA ended spectacularly badly when the Japanese responded with what the Chinese call the “Three Alls” Policy. (“Kill All, Loot All, Burn All”.) But politically, the CCP utilized the dislocation and social disruption that the war created in the countryside very effectively.

    > I read somewhere that the Japanese also deliberately built up the Communists after their surrender, but before the actual transfer of power to the Nationalists.

    I don’t think that happened much in China because the way-too-Japanophile-for-his-own-good Chiang treated the surrendered Japanese with notable leniency, something Tokyo would show its gratitude for later in their support of Taiwan. But in Vietnam, there were a bunch of Japanese who stayed behind to train the Viet Minh.

  150. res says:
    @nebulafox

    Nothing from my parents, but I was told I had a lot in common with my late grandfather, in terms of looks and personality as well as interests. Genetics are funny sometimes: you can get kids that resemble your own parent more than you.

    Maternal or paternal grandfather? Maternal grandfather of a male is an interesting case because of the way the X chromosome works.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
  151. nebulafox says:
    @res

    Maternal.

    I have a fair amount of traits in common with the paternal grandfather, too, but the sharp similarities with the maternal one is the one that everybody in the extended family invariably comments on.

    • Replies: @res
  152. res says:
    @nebulafox

    If you are interested (and don’t know all of this already), this page gives a decent overview of X chromosome inheritance.
    http://smithplanet.com/stuff/x-chromosome.htm

    Because males only have a single X chromosome recessive traits show up as if they were dominant.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X-linked_recessive_inheritance

    The X chromosome is about 150 million base pairs long:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X_chromosome

    Using a recombination rate of 1 cM/Mb we would expect 1.5 recombination events per female generation. I can’t find distribution information, but if there are a decent number of 0 and very asymmetric 1 recombination cases and assume half of those are dominated by the father’s copy you can see how an unusual resemblance to the male’s maternal grandfather could occur for X chromosome based traits.

    A much more detailed review of X chromosome genetics.
    https://personal.broadinstitute.org/sfs/nrg_Xchrom.pdf

    P.S. There are of course the 22 autosomal chromosomes to consider as well, but those genetic contributions are muted by the duplicate chromosomes.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
  153. nebulafox says:
    @res

    I wouldn’t have engaged you this long if I already knew this stuff. Thanks!

  154. @TomSchmidt

    Our number one export is dollars. we live beyond our means because we have the global reserve currency. We have the global reserve currency because we developed nukes first, a tremendous return on investment, which allows us to send dollars overseas in return for stuff.

    There are multiple reserve currencies. The dollar is just one of them, forming $6.7T out of $11.7T worth of foreign exchange reserves worldwide:

    http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4

    We’re not taxing the world. When the dollar’s exchange rate falls, dollar prices increase.

    Reserve currency status is overrated. The Swiss certainly fought it every chance they got, because it made their export goods unaffordable and increased unemployment. At one point, they imposed a 41% tax on foreign deposits.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-22/swiss-history-of-negative-interest-rates-is-ugly

    They’re still fighting it today, with a -0.75% central bank rate.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-swiss-snb-rates/swiss-central-bank-defends-negative-interest-rates-idUSKCN11L0N7

    If you’re interested, a Quora essay explains why having a currency that is the biggest component of other countries’ rainy day funds is not a benefit at all:

    https://www.quora.com/What-happens-if-the-U-S-dollar-loses-its-status-as-the-worlds-major-reserve-currency/answers/82129987

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  155. @nebulafox

    Haffner is writing about Berlin. It’s entirely possible that the Street communists had government support there, but not elsewhere.

    You might like the vignette in Church of Spies where the political operative to the premier of Bavaria advises him to arrest and execute Himmler. The premier fled to Switzerland, but the political operative told Himmler to his face that he had advised the premier to arrest him. Himmler decided the guy was trustworthy, but he went on to be part of the Catholic Resistance to Naziism that tried to assassinate HItler on several occasions.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
  156. nebulafox says:
    @TomSchmidt

    Plausible. Berlin’s heavily working-class influenced political culture has always had strong left-wing overtones belying its status as the Prussian capital: even the local Nazi party apparatus in the 1920s had strongly anti-capitalist overtones. And like everybody else, the SPD had paramilitary organizations to engage in the violence that had become normative in German political culture. I can certainly see some tacit support for that from the city government.

    That said, I’m not certain there was ever an explicit degree of support for the KPD itself in the same way. The KPD never could quite overcome the stigma of being a party at the beck and call of a foreign power in the eyes of local officials. Almost by definition, you had to be some degree of German nationalist to get anywhere in local governments and police (not the same as the Reichstag), no matter how otherwise left-wing you were: German political culture in the 1920s is not the same as today, the correlation between being nationalist and being right-wing everywhere else was not nearly as strict. That said, I’m no expert, and I could be wrong.

    > Himmler decided the guy was trustworthy, but he went on to be part of the Catholic Resistance to Naziism that tried to assassinate HItler on several occasions.

    The world should be thankful that someone competent like Heydrich never bumped off Himmler and assumed control of the SS for himself.

  157. @Johann Ricke

    Oh, I’m arguing that the reserve currency has destroyed the working and soon middle classes, and also required us to bestride the planet. It’s a disaster, but it benefits some people, and they don’t want to give it up.

    Thanks for the Quora link.

  158. @Shawn Returns

    Giving specific investment advice carries with it the risk of liability so I’m not doing that. If you’re of the mind that the dollar reign is nearing its end and an increase in dollar-denominated prices is coming, the S&P isn’t the worst place to be. What you don’t want to be in are bonds or treasuries of any kind. If you think Asia is the future, Asian/Pacific growth funds are better places to be.

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