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Biden’s back. He won the largest primary contest of the season up to this point by the widest margin of the season up to this point, making him the leader in popular votes through the nomination’s opening month of elections (with 99.73% of South Carolina reporting at the time of this posting):

The power of being president Obama’s loyal lieutenant for eight years trumps accusations made by white progressives to black Democrats that Biden is a racist. White voters focus on what people say. Black voters focus on what they do:

The good news for Sanders is he showed he does have real support among young blacks (aged 18-29) which he edged Biden among by 38% to 36%.

The bad news is Sanders continues to do poorly with older voters, even white ones. Biden got twice as much support as Sanders did among whites aged 45-59 (29% to 15%) and he got three times as much support as Sanders among whites aged 60 and older (45% to 15%).

Framing the presidential election as a clash between socialism and capitalism may sound like the country is rehashing yesterday’s battles, but presidential elections are largely determined by yesterday’s people. Older moderates who came of age during the Cold War are not going to look favorably on Sanders’ history of comments about communism, communist Cuba, and the Soviet Union. And unlike the case with Obama’s Jeremiah Wright connections, mainstream conservative media will not be afraid to highlight them over and over again.

Though the “Bernie Bros” smear is cheap, it does get at another reason the establishment doesn’t like Sanders. They view his supporters as leftist versions of Trump’s deplorables–disproportionately white men without degrees whose ranks are substantially underrepresented by white women with degrees:

Tom Steyer, who test ran the Bloomberg strategy in a single state, sputtered out underwhelmingly. He spent tens of millions of dollars humiliating himself to come away with a forgettable third-place finish. Whether or not Bloomberg gets the same sort of lackluster support on super Tuesday is yet to be seen, but Steyer’s showing doesn’t bode well for the former mayor.

That’s just as well for Biden, who now looks to be the Democrat establishment’s best chance of stopping Sanders. Ironically, Bloomberg’s last minute bid as a viable ‘centrist’ to replace a putatively moribund Biden may end up being the thing that allows Sanders to get over the top by siphoning off votes that would otherwise mostly go to Biden. Steyer’s exit modestly helps the non-Sanders cause, but not as much as Bloomberg’s presence hurts it.

 
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  1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/29/yes-joe-biden-won-big-south-carolina-where-is-he-going-win-big-super-tuesday/

    Yes, Biden had a big win on Saturday in South Carolina. He’s catching up to Sanders in the delegate race, because South Carolina has a lot of delegates, and he will probably have a big fundraising night. He should have a nice tail wind heading into Super Tuesday. But where is he going to win big on Tuesday?
    Looking at the polls in those states, I’d expect him to take Florida, Georgia and probably North Carolina. But is a big win in a state he was already widely expected to carry really going to push him over the top in Texas, where he is running eight points behind Sanders and where the Democratic electorate is heavily Latino? Or Virginia, where the D.C. wonketariat is gaga for the technocratic stylings of Warren, Buttigieg and Bloomberg, and where a large youth vote is clearly in the Sanders camp?

    Biden, in other words, seems to be doing really well in what Flannery O’Connor dubbed the “Christ-haunted” south. But that’s the place where Sanders is particularly bad at campaigning. I heard some of his surrogates onstage working stilted religious references into their speeches and looked around at a crowd that clearly wasn’t overly familiar with the Bible and thought, why are they bothering? They just don’t speak fluent Church Lady and neither does anyone else here.

    Biden, by contrast, speaks easily and naturally of his own faith and connects it with that of his likely voters here. He has been telling a story about how he shared his own suffering at the death of his son with the survivors of Dylann Roof’s horrific attack on the Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston. It makes a big impression at the rally I attended on Friday night, and illustrates why Biden carried voters who regularly attend religious services by more than 40 percentage points while Sanders won those who never attend.

    The problem is that once you get outside of the South, and particularly in the big states, the Democratic electorate looks more like the people who have been voting for Sanders than it does like conservative southern black voters. If Biden runs the tables in the South on Tuesday, and Sanders wins everywhere else, is the party going to nominate the guy who carried California and Texas and Michigan, or the guy who won all the states that are virtually guaranteed to vote for a Republican come November?

    • Agree: Jim Christian
    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
    • Replies: @Jim Christian

    The problem is that once you get outside of the South, and particularly in the big states, the Democratic electorate looks more like the people who have been voting for Sanders than it does like conservative southern black voters. If Biden runs the tables in the South on Tuesday, and Sanders wins everywhere else, is the party going to nominate the guy who carried California and Texas and Michigan, or the guy who won all the states that are virtually guaranteed to vote for a Republican come November?
     
    Correct, Twinks. Dead on. In Democratic Primary races this cycle, you have to fight the 'last war', as it were. He who wins what most recently were the swing states, the states you mention, has to be the nominee in November. Because the demographics change so quickly, you can only follow one strategy because there's too much confusion and there are too many variables so far. Then there are the artificial variables, the crooked-factor. Chicanery against Bernie, undermining Biden and Bloomie in favor of Warren, who knows how it goes before and immediately after Tuesday? Behind the scenes, Hillary, directing, devising, constructing the picture as fits her desires, a draft at the election, a VEEP-ride or Kingmaker status she can sell. The sneaky fingers of this clawing old broad aren't done yet. Clinton Foundation is burning cash. She needs to be able to sell some influence and quickly. Maybe her benefactors will put her in "Show Me" mode, that is, no money until you're actually IN office, not on the come. And the last benefactors are going to be looking for payback for 2016. They spent big money she didn't deliver influence on.

    Hillary is a huge variable in this. Until that woman is in jail or dead, the Democratic Party is askew.

    , @AP

    If Biden runs the tables in the South on Tuesday, and Sanders wins everywhere else, is the party going to nominate the guy who carried California and Texas and Michigan, or the guy who won all the states that are virtually guaranteed to vote for a Republican come November?
     
    Texas and California aren't in play in the general election either, though.

    Also "carrying" a state during a contest with 2 "progressives" vs. 4 "centrists" doesn't means much if the front-runner belongs to a faction whose votes are split two ways rather than four ways. So in Michigan, the latest polls gives the progressives (Sanders plus Warren) 42.5% and the centrists 49%:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/michigan/

    Sure, slightly less than 1 in 3 Democrats voted for Sanders and its enough to make him the leader, but will this make him more likely to win in the general than the most popular of the centrists, Biden?
    , @Hypnotoad666

    Ironically, Bloomberg’s last minute bid as a viable ‘centrist’ to replace a putatively moribund Biden may end up being the thing that allows Sanders to get over the top by siphoning off votes that would otherwise mostly go to Biden.
     
    The delegate math is all about the interplay between the number of viable non-Bernie candidates and the Dems 15% threshold rule -- especially in California.

    California by itself represents about 21% of the delegates needed to get a majority. (415/1,991).

    Biden, Bloomberg and Warren are all hovering around 15% in California. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/california/ If none of them cross the threshold, Bernie hauls in all the delegates and is a lock to get over 50%. But if at least two, or even three, of the non-Bernie candidates can cross the 15% threshold Bernie would only get around half the California delegates.

    This is a humonguous swing in delegates that may be determined by razor thin vote margins. California is controlled by the Democrat machine and there is zero integrity in determining whether votes are real or manufactured. Plus California takes forever to report results thereby opening the door to fuckery after the polls close. If the DNC is serious about kneecapping Bernie, watch how one of the candidates just barely crosses the 15% threshold with a bunch of late ballots that magically appear after the polls close.
  2. From here on out Biden will win states with high black populations and Bernie will win states that are mostly white or Hispanic…especially the later as we saw in Nevada. South Carolina proved that blacks do not like Buttleig.

    • Replies: @iffen
    Biden will win states with high black populations and Bernie will win states that are mostly white or Hispanic

    This means that the woke, who are cosmically sincere in their ideology, will give the nomination to the candidate that blacks prefer--uplift, affirmation, reparations, etc.--LOL.

    , @nymom
    If that is true then Sanders will probably win as there appears to be more hispanic 'likely' voters than black 'likely' voters. It's all about who is most likely to vote since many people don't bother voting so who or what they support is meaningless.

    I understand that's why Trump was so underrated in most polls. They kept asking everyone whether or not they supported him as opposed to actually polling people who voted in the past and were likely to vote again.
  3. @Jay Fink
    From here on out Biden will win states with high black populations and Bernie will win states that are mostly white or Hispanic...especially the later as we saw in Nevada. South Carolina proved that blacks do not like Buttleig.

    Biden will win states with high black populations and Bernie will win states that are mostly white or Hispanic

    This means that the woke, who are cosmically sincere in their ideology, will give the nomination to the candidate that blacks prefer–uplift, affirmation, reparations, etc.–LOL.

  4. “They view his supporters as leftist versions of Trump’s deplorables…..”

    Bernie’s Bros and Trump’s Deplorables have a lot in common. Both are working class. Both are white. Both are marked for destruction by the current regime precisely because they are white and working class.

    Perhaps in future the American working classes will discover class distinctions and class political dynamics and thereby discover the power of solidarity. Until then they will continue to be a one legged man in an ass kicking contest.

  5. Credit where it’s due–they apparently killed off the fag candidate.

    • Troll: HammerJack
    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Buttigieg was a huge winner in this presidential election cycle, probably the biggest winner of all in terms of where he ended up relative to where he started. He's not even 40. He will run again in 2024 or 2028, that is almost certain.
  6. @Jay Fink
    From here on out Biden will win states with high black populations and Bernie will win states that are mostly white or Hispanic...especially the later as we saw in Nevada. South Carolina proved that blacks do not like Buttleig.

    If that is true then Sanders will probably win as there appears to be more hispanic ‘likely’ voters than black ‘likely’ voters. It’s all about who is most likely to vote since many people don’t bother voting so who or what they support is meaningless.

    I understand that’s why Trump was so underrated in most polls. They kept asking everyone whether or not they supported him as opposed to actually polling people who voted in the past and were likely to vote again.

  7. The fact that anyone votes for any of the goddamn idiots running for the Democrat primaries is a testament to the sad condition of this country.

  8. Unless you are academically inclined —

    the very term socialism is akin to communism for most US citizens. That may change as those generations that lived during the cold war pass away — but until. It takes a brave soul to openly admit you have an agenda that is socialist.

    And I suspect that Sen Sanders knows that all too well.

    ——————————–

    “Credit where it’s due–they apparently killed off the . . . candidate.”

    That anyone running as he is is doing as well as he is . . . is concern for the future.

  9. @AE,

    Political predictions at this stage of the game are crazy but…

    …If we are in the midst of a true, full-blown public health crisis this time next year, might Americans give a look at a well-funded third party candidate? With proven experience in managing complex organizations? With brains and money to spare?

    Compared to one semi-senile old goat, and one who seems to veer between lunacy and bare competence on his best days?

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    A financial catastrophe seems the more likely catalyst to me--though the coronavirus may have been the pin that pricked the bubble.
  10. “Ironically, Bloomberg’s last minute bid as a viable ‘centrist’ to replace a putatively moribund Biden may end up being the thing that allows Sanders to get over the top by siphoning off votes that would otherwise mostly go to Biden. Steyer’s exit modestly helps the non-Sanders cause, but not as much as Bloomberg’s presence hurts it.”

    Filed under There Is No Inner Party.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
  11. Sometimes, I think AE should pen the titles of blaxploitation films. Some other times, I think he should pen the titles of Japanese anime films.

  12. @Twinkie
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/29/yes-joe-biden-won-big-south-carolina-where-is-he-going-win-big-super-tuesday/

    Yes, Biden had a big win on Saturday in South Carolina. He’s catching up to Sanders in the delegate race, because South Carolina has a lot of delegates, and he will probably have a big fundraising night. He should have a nice tail wind heading into Super Tuesday. But where is he going to win big on Tuesday?
    Looking at the polls in those states, I’d expect him to take Florida, Georgia and probably North Carolina. But is a big win in a state he was already widely expected to carry really going to push him over the top in Texas, where he is running eight points behind Sanders and where the Democratic electorate is heavily Latino? Or Virginia, where the D.C. wonketariat is gaga for the technocratic stylings of Warren, Buttigieg and Bloomberg, and where a large youth vote is clearly in the Sanders camp?

    Biden, in other words, seems to be doing really well in what Flannery O’Connor dubbed the “Christ-haunted" south. But that’s the place where Sanders is particularly bad at campaigning. I heard some of his surrogates onstage working stilted religious references into their speeches and looked around at a crowd that clearly wasn’t overly familiar with the Bible and thought, why are they bothering? They just don’t speak fluent Church Lady and neither does anyone else here.

    Biden, by contrast, speaks easily and naturally of his own faith and connects it with that of his likely voters here. He has been telling a story about how he shared his own suffering at the death of his son with the survivors of Dylann Roof’s horrific attack on the Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston. It makes a big impression at the rally I attended on Friday night, and illustrates why Biden carried voters who regularly attend religious services by more than 40 percentage points while Sanders won those who never attend.

    The problem is that once you get outside of the South, and particularly in the big states, the Democratic electorate looks more like the people who have been voting for Sanders than it does like conservative southern black voters. If Biden runs the tables in the South on Tuesday, and Sanders wins everywhere else, is the party going to nominate the guy who carried California and Texas and Michigan, or the guy who won all the states that are virtually guaranteed to vote for a Republican come November?
     

    The problem is that once you get outside of the South, and particularly in the big states, the Democratic electorate looks more like the people who have been voting for Sanders than it does like conservative southern black voters. If Biden runs the tables in the South on Tuesday, and Sanders wins everywhere else, is the party going to nominate the guy who carried California and Texas and Michigan, or the guy who won all the states that are virtually guaranteed to vote for a Republican come November?

    Correct, Twinks. Dead on. In Democratic Primary races this cycle, you have to fight the ‘last war’, as it were. He who wins what most recently were the swing states, the states you mention, has to be the nominee in November. Because the demographics change so quickly, you can only follow one strategy because there’s too much confusion and there are too many variables so far. Then there are the artificial variables, the crooked-factor. Chicanery against Bernie, undermining Biden and Bloomie in favor of Warren, who knows how it goes before and immediately after Tuesday? Behind the scenes, Hillary, directing, devising, constructing the picture as fits her desires, a draft at the election, a VEEP-ride or Kingmaker status she can sell. The sneaky fingers of this clawing old broad aren’t done yet. Clinton Foundation is burning cash. She needs to be able to sell some influence and quickly. Maybe her benefactors will put her in “Show Me” mode, that is, no money until you’re actually IN office, not on the come. And the last benefactors are going to be looking for payback for 2016. They spent big money she didn’t deliver influence on.

    Hillary is a huge variable in this. Until that woman is in jail or dead, the Democratic Party is askew.

  13. AP says:
    @Twinkie
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/29/yes-joe-biden-won-big-south-carolina-where-is-he-going-win-big-super-tuesday/

    Yes, Biden had a big win on Saturday in South Carolina. He’s catching up to Sanders in the delegate race, because South Carolina has a lot of delegates, and he will probably have a big fundraising night. He should have a nice tail wind heading into Super Tuesday. But where is he going to win big on Tuesday?
    Looking at the polls in those states, I’d expect him to take Florida, Georgia and probably North Carolina. But is a big win in a state he was already widely expected to carry really going to push him over the top in Texas, where he is running eight points behind Sanders and where the Democratic electorate is heavily Latino? Or Virginia, where the D.C. wonketariat is gaga for the technocratic stylings of Warren, Buttigieg and Bloomberg, and where a large youth vote is clearly in the Sanders camp?

    Biden, in other words, seems to be doing really well in what Flannery O’Connor dubbed the “Christ-haunted" south. But that’s the place where Sanders is particularly bad at campaigning. I heard some of his surrogates onstage working stilted religious references into their speeches and looked around at a crowd that clearly wasn’t overly familiar with the Bible and thought, why are they bothering? They just don’t speak fluent Church Lady and neither does anyone else here.

    Biden, by contrast, speaks easily and naturally of his own faith and connects it with that of his likely voters here. He has been telling a story about how he shared his own suffering at the death of his son with the survivors of Dylann Roof’s horrific attack on the Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston. It makes a big impression at the rally I attended on Friday night, and illustrates why Biden carried voters who regularly attend religious services by more than 40 percentage points while Sanders won those who never attend.

    The problem is that once you get outside of the South, and particularly in the big states, the Democratic electorate looks more like the people who have been voting for Sanders than it does like conservative southern black voters. If Biden runs the tables in the South on Tuesday, and Sanders wins everywhere else, is the party going to nominate the guy who carried California and Texas and Michigan, or the guy who won all the states that are virtually guaranteed to vote for a Republican come November?
     

    If Biden runs the tables in the South on Tuesday, and Sanders wins everywhere else, is the party going to nominate the guy who carried California and Texas and Michigan, or the guy who won all the states that are virtually guaranteed to vote for a Republican come November?

    Texas and California aren’t in play in the general election either, though.

    Also “carrying” a state during a contest with 2 “progressives” vs. 4 “centrists” doesn’t means much if the front-runner belongs to a faction whose votes are split two ways rather than four ways. So in Michigan, the latest polls gives the progressives (Sanders plus Warren) 42.5% and the centrists 49%:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/michigan/

    Sure, slightly less than 1 in 3 Democrats voted for Sanders and its enough to make him the leader, but will this make him more likely to win in the general than the most popular of the centrists, Biden?

  14. Here are Tuesday’s contests with their delegate count and current leader in the polls:

    Alabama (52) (Biden), American Samoa (6) (Biden), Arkansas (31) (Biden), California (415) (Sanders), Colorado (67) (Sanders), Democrats Abroad (13) (Biden), Maine (24) (Sanders), Massachusetts (91) (Sanders), Minnesota (75) (Klobuchar),North Carolina (110) (Biden), Oklahoma (37) (Biden), Tennessee (64) (Biden), Texas (228) (Sanders), Utah (29) (Sanders),Vermont (16) (Vermont), Virginia (99) (Sanders)

    Now, delegates are awarded proportionately in most states. The caucus states have their own weird math, but all but one of these are primary states. That means Sanders winning 30% of a state will get 30% of the delegates.

    Right away, you see the problem. Sanders will win the bulk of the delegates on offer Tuesday. The math right now says Sanders tops out at around 400. Biden can maybe get 300 and Bloomberg get 150 if he can keep from saying anything stupid before Tuesday.

    The thing is, candidates that fall below 15 get zero delegates and those are then put back into the pool to be divided among the candidates getting above 15% of the vote. That means Sanders can walk away with 500+ delegates, Biden 400+ delegates and Bloomberg 300+ delegates.

    Presumably, the rest of the field drops out on Wednesday, thus giving Dementia Joe and Mini-Mike some room to maneuver. If Bloomberg flops on Tuesday like we saw with Steyer, then he probably drops out making it a two-septuagenarian race.

    There is a path to 1991 for Sanders, but he needs Biden to have a senior moment probably. If Dementia Joe can hold it together for a few more weeks and keep walking away with close second in the March primaries, he can keep Sanders from reaching the magic number.

    A contested convention is the only way they avoid having a Bolshevik as their candidate.

    • Replies: @The Germ Theory of Disease
    "...the only way they avoid having a Bolshevik"

    True, except that the real problem is, they're ALL (((Bolsheviks))) in the more realistic meaning of the term. For all practical purposes, even Trump is a (((Bolshevik))).

    What we're really facing is the stark reality that no matter who wins, even if it's just Aunt Fritzi, the fact is the (((Bolsheviks))) will get whatever they want, and us humans will get Diddly squat.
    , @Nodwink
    This would be the political equivalent of the 1919 World Series. I don't think there would be any comeback for the Dems, their credibility would be shot to pieces.
  15. @The Z Blog
    Here are Tuesday's contests with their delegate count and current leader in the polls:

    Alabama (52) (Biden), American Samoa (6) (Biden), Arkansas (31) (Biden), California (415) (Sanders), Colorado (67) (Sanders), Democrats Abroad (13) (Biden), Maine (24) (Sanders), Massachusetts (91) (Sanders), Minnesota (75) (Klobuchar),North Carolina (110) (Biden), Oklahoma (37) (Biden), Tennessee (64) (Biden), Texas (228) (Sanders), Utah (29) (Sanders),Vermont (16) (Vermont), Virginia (99) (Sanders)

    Now, delegates are awarded proportionately in most states. The caucus states have their own weird math, but all but one of these are primary states. That means Sanders winning 30% of a state will get 30% of the delegates.

    Right away, you see the problem. Sanders will win the bulk of the delegates on offer Tuesday. The math right now says Sanders tops out at around 400. Biden can maybe get 300 and Bloomberg get 150 if he can keep from saying anything stupid before Tuesday.

    The thing is, candidates that fall below 15 get zero delegates and those are then put back into the pool to be divided among the candidates getting above 15% of the vote. That means Sanders can walk away with 500+ delegates, Biden 400+ delegates and Bloomberg 300+ delegates.

    Presumably, the rest of the field drops out on Wednesday, thus giving Dementia Joe and Mini-Mike some room to maneuver. If Bloomberg flops on Tuesday like we saw with Steyer, then he probably drops out making it a two-septuagenarian race.

    There is a path to 1991 for Sanders, but he needs Biden to have a senior moment probably. If Dementia Joe can hold it together for a few more weeks and keep walking away with close second in the March primaries, he can keep Sanders from reaching the magic number.

    A contested convention is the only way they avoid having a Bolshevik as their candidate.

    “…the only way they avoid having a Bolshevik”

    True, except that the real problem is, they’re ALL (((Bolsheviks))) in the more realistic meaning of the term. For all practical purposes, even Trump is a (((Bolshevik))).

    What we’re really facing is the stark reality that no matter who wins, even if it’s just Aunt Fritzi, the fact is the (((Bolsheviks))) will get whatever they want, and us humans will get Diddly squat.

    • Agree: HammerJack
  16. @The Z Blog
    Here are Tuesday's contests with their delegate count and current leader in the polls:

    Alabama (52) (Biden), American Samoa (6) (Biden), Arkansas (31) (Biden), California (415) (Sanders), Colorado (67) (Sanders), Democrats Abroad (13) (Biden), Maine (24) (Sanders), Massachusetts (91) (Sanders), Minnesota (75) (Klobuchar),North Carolina (110) (Biden), Oklahoma (37) (Biden), Tennessee (64) (Biden), Texas (228) (Sanders), Utah (29) (Sanders),Vermont (16) (Vermont), Virginia (99) (Sanders)

    Now, delegates are awarded proportionately in most states. The caucus states have their own weird math, but all but one of these are primary states. That means Sanders winning 30% of a state will get 30% of the delegates.

    Right away, you see the problem. Sanders will win the bulk of the delegates on offer Tuesday. The math right now says Sanders tops out at around 400. Biden can maybe get 300 and Bloomberg get 150 if he can keep from saying anything stupid before Tuesday.

    The thing is, candidates that fall below 15 get zero delegates and those are then put back into the pool to be divided among the candidates getting above 15% of the vote. That means Sanders can walk away with 500+ delegates, Biden 400+ delegates and Bloomberg 300+ delegates.

    Presumably, the rest of the field drops out on Wednesday, thus giving Dementia Joe and Mini-Mike some room to maneuver. If Bloomberg flops on Tuesday like we saw with Steyer, then he probably drops out making it a two-septuagenarian race.

    There is a path to 1991 for Sanders, but he needs Biden to have a senior moment probably. If Dementia Joe can hold it together for a few more weeks and keep walking away with close second in the March primaries, he can keep Sanders from reaching the magic number.

    A contested convention is the only way they avoid having a Bolshevik as their candidate.

    This would be the political equivalent of the 1919 World Series. I don’t think there would be any comeback for the Dems, their credibility would be shot to pieces.

  17. The women’s vote in the democratic primaries is consistent with the greater part of the reason they vote more leftwing being their greater conformism rather than greater socialism.

  18. @Twinkie
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/29/yes-joe-biden-won-big-south-carolina-where-is-he-going-win-big-super-tuesday/

    Yes, Biden had a big win on Saturday in South Carolina. He’s catching up to Sanders in the delegate race, because South Carolina has a lot of delegates, and he will probably have a big fundraising night. He should have a nice tail wind heading into Super Tuesday. But where is he going to win big on Tuesday?
    Looking at the polls in those states, I’d expect him to take Florida, Georgia and probably North Carolina. But is a big win in a state he was already widely expected to carry really going to push him over the top in Texas, where he is running eight points behind Sanders and where the Democratic electorate is heavily Latino? Or Virginia, where the D.C. wonketariat is gaga for the technocratic stylings of Warren, Buttigieg and Bloomberg, and where a large youth vote is clearly in the Sanders camp?

    Biden, in other words, seems to be doing really well in what Flannery O’Connor dubbed the “Christ-haunted" south. But that’s the place where Sanders is particularly bad at campaigning. I heard some of his surrogates onstage working stilted religious references into their speeches and looked around at a crowd that clearly wasn’t overly familiar with the Bible and thought, why are they bothering? They just don’t speak fluent Church Lady and neither does anyone else here.

    Biden, by contrast, speaks easily and naturally of his own faith and connects it with that of his likely voters here. He has been telling a story about how he shared his own suffering at the death of his son with the survivors of Dylann Roof’s horrific attack on the Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston. It makes a big impression at the rally I attended on Friday night, and illustrates why Biden carried voters who regularly attend religious services by more than 40 percentage points while Sanders won those who never attend.

    The problem is that once you get outside of the South, and particularly in the big states, the Democratic electorate looks more like the people who have been voting for Sanders than it does like conservative southern black voters. If Biden runs the tables in the South on Tuesday, and Sanders wins everywhere else, is the party going to nominate the guy who carried California and Texas and Michigan, or the guy who won all the states that are virtually guaranteed to vote for a Republican come November?
     

    Ironically, Bloomberg’s last minute bid as a viable ‘centrist’ to replace a putatively moribund Biden may end up being the thing that allows Sanders to get over the top by siphoning off votes that would otherwise mostly go to Biden.

    The delegate math is all about the interplay between the number of viable non-Bernie candidates and the Dems 15% threshold rule — especially in California.

    California by itself represents about 21% of the delegates needed to get a majority. (415/1,991).

    Biden, Bloomberg and Warren are all hovering around 15% in California. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/california/ If none of them cross the threshold, Bernie hauls in all the delegates and is a lock to get over 50%. But if at least two, or even three, of the non-Bernie candidates can cross the 15% threshold Bernie would only get around half the California delegates.

    This is a humonguous swing in delegates that may be determined by razor thin vote margins. California is controlled by the Democrat machine and there is zero integrity in determining whether votes are real or manufactured. Plus California takes forever to report results thereby opening the door to fuckery after the polls close. If the DNC is serious about kneecapping Bernie, watch how one of the candidates just barely crosses the 15% threshold with a bunch of late ballots that magically appear after the polls close.

    • Replies: @iffen
    how one of the candidates just barely crosses the 15% threshold with a bunch of late ballots that magically appear after the polls close.

    Heretic!

    This is America.

    Stuff like that doesn't happen here.
  19. @Hypnotoad666

    Ironically, Bloomberg’s last minute bid as a viable ‘centrist’ to replace a putatively moribund Biden may end up being the thing that allows Sanders to get over the top by siphoning off votes that would otherwise mostly go to Biden.
     
    The delegate math is all about the interplay between the number of viable non-Bernie candidates and the Dems 15% threshold rule -- especially in California.

    California by itself represents about 21% of the delegates needed to get a majority. (415/1,991).

    Biden, Bloomberg and Warren are all hovering around 15% in California. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/california/ If none of them cross the threshold, Bernie hauls in all the delegates and is a lock to get over 50%. But if at least two, or even three, of the non-Bernie candidates can cross the 15% threshold Bernie would only get around half the California delegates.

    This is a humonguous swing in delegates that may be determined by razor thin vote margins. California is controlled by the Democrat machine and there is zero integrity in determining whether votes are real or manufactured. Plus California takes forever to report results thereby opening the door to fuckery after the polls close. If the DNC is serious about kneecapping Bernie, watch how one of the candidates just barely crosses the 15% threshold with a bunch of late ballots that magically appear after the polls close.

    how one of the candidates just barely crosses the 15% threshold with a bunch of late ballots that magically appear after the polls close.

    Heretic!

    This is America.

    Stuff like that doesn’t happen here.

  20. @iffen
    Credit where it's due--they apparently killed off the fag candidate.

    Buttigieg was a huge winner in this presidential election cycle, probably the biggest winner of all in terms of where he ended up relative to where he started. He’s not even 40. He will run again in 2024 or 2028, that is almost certain.

    • Replies: @iffen
    He will run again in 2024 or 2028, that is almost certain.

    After Biden takes over the party apparatus, Iowa and NH will be removed and replaced with states with a greater % of blacks in the population. That means he will be up against the black church ladies from the start instead of the 4th contest. The only thing that might prevent this would be the lack of support for changes from the black party apparatchiks, media personalities and academics, who I believe are homo infested at a higher rate than their woke white compadres. They deny that the black church ladies are fag averse even when they know it to be factual, so they might drag their feet in rigging the calendar against homos.

  21. @Jane Plain
    @AE,

    Political predictions at this stage of the game are crazy but...

    ...If we are in the midst of a true, full-blown public health crisis this time next year, might Americans give a look at a well-funded third party candidate? With proven experience in managing complex organizations? With brains and money to spare?

    Compared to one semi-senile old goat, and one who seems to veer between lunacy and bare competence on his best days?

    A financial catastrophe seems the more likely catalyst to me–though the coronavirus may have been the pin that pricked the bubble.

  22. @Audacious Epigone
    Buttigieg was a huge winner in this presidential election cycle, probably the biggest winner of all in terms of where he ended up relative to where he started. He's not even 40. He will run again in 2024 or 2028, that is almost certain.

    He will run again in 2024 or 2028, that is almost certain.

    After Biden takes over the party apparatus, Iowa and NH will be removed and replaced with states with a greater % of blacks in the population. That means he will be up against the black church ladies from the start instead of the 4th contest. The only thing that might prevent this would be the lack of support for changes from the black party apparatchiks, media personalities and academics, who I believe are homo infested at a higher rate than their woke white compadres. They deny that the black church ladies are fag averse even when they know it to be factual, so they might drag their feet in rigging the calendar against homos.

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