While I have a fairly clear mental map of the geography of white intelligence, socio-political, and cultural distributions in the US, I tend to think of black populations–at least concentrated black populations–as, well, black populations. If you’ve listened to one local hip hop station, you’ve listened to them all.
Steve Sailer periodically snaps me out of that lazy thinking by noting the especially poor performance of contemporary blacks in the Upper Midwest, with Milwaukee and its history through the 20th century as a prime case study.
As luck would have it, NAEP results are available for 21 metro areas in the US, including Milwaukee. The following table shows estimated average IQ among black 8th graders taking the NAEP math and reading assessments in 2013 by jurisdiction. The scores for both tests are on a 500 point scale, with a standard deviation of 37 on the math assessment and 34 on the reading assessment. In the subsequent table, these are converted into IQ estimates with a mean of 98–corresponding to the national average NAEP scores of 283.62 for math and 266.02 for reading–and a standard deviation of 15. The math and reading scores are weighted equally. The data are insufficient for Albuquerque, but the other 20 cities the NAEP sampled are all included:
|3. New York City||90.9|
|4. Hillsborough County (FL)||90.9|
|11. San Diego||88.4|
|14. Jefferson County (KY)||87.5|
|15. Los Angeles||86.7|
|16. District of Columbia||85.4|
Milwaukee can be thankful for Detroit. Detroit, in turn, might be thankful for, uh, East St. Louis, though the last bit is just speculation on my part. Cleveland, another Upper Midwestern city, also fares poorly. The birthplace of the Crips and the Bloods outperforms all of them. Chicago is the best the region is able to boast, and it’s still in the bottom half of the jurisdictions considered.
Steve’s perspicacity can hardly be overstated. Generous welfare programs are going to, ceteris paribus, attract welfare recipients. The tactics to ‘gentrify’ a jurisdiction include restricting the amount of land available for certain kinds of development (whether it be through zoning or merely the physical terrain), instituting municipal and county minimum wages significantly higher than the national minimum wage, and curtailing welfare program payouts as aggressively as possible. Because the last two are each generally supported by different political factions, there is currently an opportunity for either red state or blue state America to gentrify on a systematic, nationwide scale by, in the case of red staters, dropping their opposition to increasing legal minimum wage rates and in the case of blue staters, dropping their opposition to curtailing welfare benefits. While it seems like a tough sell to red state America, it’s an even more difficult sale to close with blue staters.
This game of hot potato is, nationally, a zero-sum endeavor, but the cracks in the national foundation are increasing in number and intensity by the day, just as the dead weight costs that the underclasses impose increases. The stakes are getting higher.