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Rusted Wardrobe? Rotted Retailville? Coin something as memorable and pithy as the phrase “Rust Belt” and you’ll have made a lasting contribution to the lexicon, because the service sector shuttering is upon us. The desolation of the country’s brick-and-mortar retail spaces, including bars, restaurants, botique shops, and the like will change the face of the American landscape in ways more profound, and probably even more devastating, than the hollowing out of the country’s manufacturing base has.

Drug abuse, listlessness, alcoholism, depression, suicide–the drivers of deaths of despair–are going to get worse. They’re going to metastasize all over the country. Work opportunities in suburbs everywhere have gone away and many are never coming back. Many of the 17 million and growing Americans out a job aren’t returning to work anytime soon, if ever.

 
• Category: Culture/Society, Economics • Tags: Coronavirus, Economics 
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  1. Ghost Malls.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    That's been a phenomenon for a couple of decades now, but this will be different. Strip malls are more common than traditional malls--it's hard to live in suburbia and be within a couple miles of one. The domino effect in many of these places is going to be quite sad.
  2. The desolation of the country’s brick-and-mortar retail spaces,

    False. American devotes six times as much land per customer to brick and mortar retail than other advanced economies, even without counting the massive wastage of land in parking lots.

    https://futurist.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83452455969e201b7c919c54a970b-320wi

    The shift to e-commerce is a necessary correction to this gross malinvestment.

    Many of the 17 million and growing Americans out a job aren’t returning to work anytime soon, if ever.

    False. This is very Malthusian/Luddite thought.

    Plus, this directly precludes your belief that we are on the brink of hyperinflation (which has already been proved wrong and for which you have to eat the massive Terror Bird).

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    I don't disagree with the thrust of your point regarding American retail space, but that doesn't change the reality of the pain that is coming.

    Stop moving the goal posts. I've never said we were "on the brink of hyperinflation". My prediction is we are going to see a sharp increase in consumer prices, my guess is pushing double-digit year-over-year. Food increased 0.3% in March even with restaurants closed. That annualizes to almost 4%. Energy and travel were way down, of course, so the total CPI declined, but there are effectively shortages in energy and travel at the moment, and shortages are the only way to avoid price inflation when there is a supply crunch.

    Don't butter up the terror bird just yet. Keep it in the cage and feed it well if you want, but I'm not stuffing it down yet!

  3. Such a ray of sunshine you are.

    I don’t see it. People still have to eat. You can’t outsource that to China yet. Everything will be open in a month and the places will be packed.

    • Disagree: Stan d Mute
    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    People are eating now and the restaurants are closed, but I hope you're right.
    , @JohnPlywood
    " I don't see it" <-- Imagine talking like this much of a dimwitted fucking cuck.
    , @Truth
    ...uh...No.
  4. “Dead malls” has been a thing for quite a while.  The curse of “cibil rites” for thuggish “yoots” has killed malls engulfed by “diversity”, which had their customer base driven away by implicit or explicit threat and store profitability killed by said cut in business plus thug shoplifting (that they are unable to prevent by banning said “yoots” from entry).

    I’ve seen more than a few dead malls just in the metro area where I grew up.  Temperate, pleasant indoor spaces or “diversity”:  pick ONE.

    • Replies: @Alfa158
    There is a famous one near where I live that has been closed for 20 years.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawthorne_Plaza_Shopping_Center
    The city used to be almost all White, middle and working class. Most of The Beach Boys attended one of the high schools. At the time the mall was built the decline had already started and the mall didn’t stay open long.
    I remember shortly after it opened there was a crime report about armed robbery in the parking structure. (Mall parking structures are notoriously happy hunting grounds for criminals.) The police got a report of a shopper having been robbed at gunpoint in the parking structure. They responded in time to arrest the perpetrator carrying out his sixth consecutive holdup. It was amazing; the guy was still there, simply strolling around the structure, holding people up as if he had a license for it and hadn’t bagged his legal limit yet.
    The city has had a comeback thanks to SpaceX having its headquarters there in the former Northrop plant, but last I heard the city was still looking for a developer for the mall site willing to cough up the major money needed to demolish something this big.
  5. When things get worse economically the country may turn to social conservatism. The country became more socially conservative in the Great Depression than it was in the Roaring Twenties and the Stagflation Seventies ended the Swinging Sixties. Movies may turn away from sex towards romance and escapism as people try to escape for a few hours from the dismal reality of daily life.

    The coronavirus itself will hang around for awhile and the memory of it for even longer. This will help along the new puritanism. People will not want to engage in activities where they come into close physical contact with lots of strangers. Strip clubs and massage parlors will lose customers and shut down. More people will engage in long term exclusive relationships.

    Religious belief may increase. People will become less materialistic as the possibility of achieving riches become out of reach for many of them and they will turn to religion for solace in their difficulties. You could also have a form of Stoicism become popular. Stoicism encourages people not to worry about things outside their control and there will be many more things outside their control in the future.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Stress to strength, pressure to power.
    , @dfordoom

    Strip clubs and massage parlors will lose customers and shut down.

     

    Strip clubs might survive, as long as they preserve social distancing. Always stay six feet away from the strippers!

    Massage parlours and brothels may be in trouble. Maybe Trump will have to bail out the prostitution industry. Hook-up culture may take a major hit as well.

    People might be afraid to have casual sex but they'll still be interested in watching sex. The porn industry will boom. There could be an incel pandemic.

    More people will engage in long term exclusive relationships.
     
    Logically they should. But there are reasons why long-term relationships have declined, and why men in particular are reluctant to engage in them. Maybe people will avoid casual hook-ups but have more short-term relationships. Will marriage make a comeback? That depends on how much economic insecurity there is. It also depends on whether the fallout from the virus hysteria enables employers to reduce permanent workforces and replace them with more casual staff. That will make marriage less attractive.

    It's possible birth rates will increase. Personally I suspect they'll plummet but it's hard to predict.

    Religious belief may increase.
     
    Possibly, but I doubt that mainstream Christian churches will benefit. It's possible that it will be fringe religions that will attract more people. Again, very hard to predict.
    , @YetAnotherAnon
    "the Stagflation Seventies ended the Swinging Sixties"

    From a UK perspective, that's nonsense. The Seventies were far more 'permissive' than the Sixties and the Eighties more so still. Cutting edge Sixties culture spread through universities in the 70s and went mainstream in the 80s. And it's not stopped yet.
  6. Malls are doing a lot worse than strip malls. The only mall in my hometown shut down permanently in the 09 recession and is completely vacant still. Probably a bad investment since it was built in the 1980s and went downhill in the 00s, so really only had 20 good years.

    The strip malls are doing fine though. One had a string of 5 small stores combined into a gym. The old ones have gone downscale with thrift stores and dingy ethnic grocery stores, but are still operating. The better tenants moved to new strip malls further out in new suburbs, and have Kohls/Target type anchor tenants. Dollar store chains are growing rapidly and almost always in strip malls.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Thanks for articulating the distinction between traditional malls and strip malls. The terms sound similar but they're distinct kinds of retail operations. Malls have been dying for decades. We're in the beginning stages of the death of strip malls, though this death will in retrospect look more like an asteroid hit than a gradual extinction.
    , @JohnnyWalker123
    Lots of people (especially teenagers) used to hang out at the mall, as a form of social activity. Now that smart phones are so popular and people are so socially reclusive, malls really aren't focal points for socialization anymore.

    People may occasionally go to the mall to browse, but hanging out at the mall regularly isn't really so common these days. Back in the 80s, people used to swarm the malls. You'd see hordes of teens everywhere, just shooting the breeze and having fun. The difference between then and now is like night and day. It's interesting how anti-social so many people are these days, especially younger people.

    If strip malls are less affected, it's probably because strip malls never were that dependent on people looking to hang out with their friends. So this trend towards social hibernation is less important for them. However, strip malls are still affected by declining consumer purchasing power, as well as competition from online retailers.
    , @Oo-ee-oo-ah-ah-ting-tang-walla-walla-bing-bang
    Gyms are going to be interesting to follow. Obviously, you can’t outsource them and fitness is an important aspect to many people’s lives, but the short and medium term germophobia will certainly do a number on them as a business. Hot moist area where tons of people are heavily sweating and respirating? That’s not a good look for the 2020’s
    , @Wency
    "Probably a bad investment"

    I don't think commercial real estate developers have that long a time horizon. Projects need to pay for themselves a lot quicker than 20 years to get those guys interested.

    It might be a bad investment for the bank, though I think CRE loan terms normally aren't longer than 10 years. So it would be the third bank to hold the loan that took the hit.
  7. The economy will eventually recover as long as there is demand for something. Most of the jobs that have been lost can’t simply be outsourced as manufacturing has been. If fact, most of those jobs can’t even be outsourced out of state or out of city. How many people will drive across state or city lines for a beer or a hamburger? Those are the jobs that have been lost, many of them anyway. They’ll be back in some form at some point in time.

    In the worst case scenario, the government could always provide a jumpstart to the economy through public works projects like an expansion of Amtrak, minerals mining, road projects, etc. In the long run, this could also turn out to be a good thing. Eliminating some gig jobs means more competition for those that remain, thus crowding out legal and illegal immigrants and waking up the public to the inevitable post-Covid amnesty and increased legal immigration calls.

    In any case, the trend you note was already upon us. Covid just accelerated it. That’s good. Otherwise, there would have been a slow burn until everything collapsed through technological innovation anyway. Imagine a USA in the future alternate timeline, one with another 60 million immigrants in it, many low wage with no potential for advancing beyond that. The economy implodes as the dollar fades away as the global reserve currency and automation finishes off the service sector. That country is in a far worse position than this one is now, which is already pretty dire. At least now there is a whisper of a hope.

    If I controlled the deepstate, I’d massively exaggerate Covid-19 as an excuse to permanently seal the southern border in a manner that can’t easily be reversed by future democrats: landmines. That’d go a long way to stabilizing the demographics such that the USA isn’t totally destroyed by mid century. You should take this as an opportunity to lobby for change. Make it loud and maybe someone listens. Think of how things were going before. You yourself worried about getting a Sulla. Maybe that’s inevitable now — but maybe not by quite as much. It certainly was before.

    [MORE]

    Good things that could eventually come from this:

    Better quality movies and television as companies fight over scarcer dollars, forcing them to produce superior content. Do I even need to list some of what was planned for future Hollywood movies before Covid-19? Search at your psychological peril.

    Deplatforming of SJWs from companies as they return to market-based fundamentals; no more manuscript sensitivity reviews, no more politically correct gatekeepers in books, movies, games, and comics because those guys are now all out of the job.

    The closure of numerous divisive click bait rags like Salon and Buzzfeed. The national mood could return to a more agreeable state once that pool of bigotry dries up (Salon: “Hallmark is Fascist Propaganda”).

    Fewer useless college degrees.

    A national healthcare service like the UK’s NHS. That would require more doctors, meaning more overall opportunities for white kids unduly discriminated against by Affirmative Action and professional school salary gatekeeping.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Coronavirus was the pin that pricked the economic bubble, but something was bound to be. There was a hope that maybe we could keep the bubble inflated long enough for some revolutionary technology--CRISPR 2.0, viable nuclear fusion, successful SENS, etc--to rocket humanity forward, but if that isn't forthcoming soon, I agree we're better off swallowing the bitter medicine now because it's only going to taste even worse the longer we put off taking it.
    , @Daniel H
    The economy will eventually recover as long as there is demand for something. Most of the jobs that have been lost can’t simply be outsourced as manufacturing has been.

    Yeah, some/most of those jobs may/will comeback, but most restaurant, small time service jobs, the type at strip malls, are shitty jobs anyway, and it won't come as some great relief if a large number do return, just business going back to the shitty normal. And I don't mean to disparage by calling them shitty jobs. I have done plenty of these jobs and am doing one right now, doing so because I'm desperate and broke, but hope springs and my anticipation is to move into a job more agreeable, but, that said, America seems to be overweighted with shitty jobs now, and the truth is for many of those doing these jobs there will be no progression up and out, but with this thing even those shitty jobs are valuable (again, I know, because I'm doing one) and it really sucks that many of these jobs have been cratered, because you don't know 21st century American fear until you are a week away from homelessness. I live in a city where to become homeless is to walk to death's door. Homelessness is scary.

    Again, though, before this thing the plutocracy was unperturbed about creating an America where so many adult American men and women languish in these shitty jobs, decade after decade, with little hope into shifting into something, anything more fulfilling. The 1% and their 10% hatchet men really hate you. They really do. I understand now the incendiary class hatred that endured in Russia 1918. I can really understand it. I wonder if 90% of America will come to this hatred? Well, 90% won't, because 17% of Americans work for the government, and government workers will ALWAYS back the state status quo, but 90-17= 73 and that is a very large number. 73% of American imbued with a zealous hatred of the top 10? We can dream.
  8. Here in East Tennessee, quite a few formerly-empty medium-sized malls are now occupied by churches.

    • Replies: @Daniel H
    Here in East Tennessee, quite a few formerly-empty medium-sized malls are now occupied by churches.

    And that's a good thing? Sorry, don't want to offend, but Protestantism was a turn into a dead end for human civic/social development. These holly-roller Protestant sects pretty much deliver the message that your lesser status in life is just God's will and you just must endure it. American ex-urban Protestantism trains the mind and souls of it's votaries to be the house ni**ers of the plutocracy. If you are going to take up the Christian faith, go Orthodox (Catholic/Eastern no matter) or don't do it at all. Christianity needs no reform, never did, but American social and economic relations sure do.
  9. RBB, ruined by blacks. First they destroyed the cities then they destroyed suburban malls. What next?

    • Agree: MBlanc46
    • Replies: @Truth

    First they destroyed the cities then they destroyed suburban malls. What next?
     
    Country Music?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2Ov5jzm3j8
  10. @Almost Missouri
    Ghost Malls.

    That’s been a phenomenon for a couple of decades now, but this will be different. Strip malls are more common than traditional malls–it’s hard to live in suburbia and be within a couple miles of one. The domino effect in many of these places is going to be quite sad.

    • Replies: @Neoconned
    My dads friend owns a corner store in the old "hood" i used to live in. The area is now 80% black. There's a dollar store and 2 gas stations. He owns the strip mall his corner store is in. He has 3 units there and 1 is luckily for him a liquor store.

    He tells me though the idiots in his city are trying to jack up his property taxes. Rents are so low in the south that if his taxes go up by even 2-3k$ his strip mall becomes unprofitable. His corner store is already near bankrupt.

    The next 2 decades will be bleak in many parts of the country.....
  11. @Thomm

    The desolation of the country’s brick-and-mortar retail spaces,
     
    False. American devotes six times as much land per customer to brick and mortar retail than other advanced economies, even without counting the massive wastage of land in parking lots.

    https://futurist.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83452455969e201b7c919c54a970b-320wi

    The shift to e-commerce is a necessary correction to this gross malinvestment.

    Many of the 17 million and growing Americans out a job aren’t returning to work anytime soon, if ever.
     
    False. This is very Malthusian/Luddite thought.

    Plus, this directly precludes your belief that we are on the brink of hyperinflation (which has already been proved wrong and for which you have to eat the massive Terror Bird).

    I don’t disagree with the thrust of your point regarding American retail space, but that doesn’t change the reality of the pain that is coming.

    Stop moving the goal posts. I’ve never said we were “on the brink of hyperinflation”. My prediction is we are going to see a sharp increase in consumer prices, my guess is pushing double-digit year-over-year. Food increased 0.3% in March even with restaurants closed. That annualizes to almost 4%. Energy and travel were way down, of course, so the total CPI declined, but there are effectively shortages in energy and travel at the moment, and shortages are the only way to avoid price inflation when there is a supply crunch.

    Don’t butter up the terror bird just yet. Keep it in the cage and feed it well if you want, but I’m not stuffing it down yet!

    • Replies: @Tulip
    BLS report on CPI:

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf

    Processed goods, food and feed down -0.8% in March 2020. Total change for processed goods down -3.7% for 12 month period. Unprocessed goods down -15.4% for 12 month period. (Carbon steel scraps apparently doing well, up 3.8%).

    Now imagine April with lockdowns in force across the world. Not finding the Audacious rise in March food prices in the data.

    There may be some food inflation going forward, because most food in the developed world is not picked by the natives, and COVID-19 may impact labor markets. Of course, it would be hypocritical for nationalists to complain about food inflation as a result of immigration restrictions imposed from "above" as it were. There is little connection between declining food prices and the COVID stimulus, other than trying to insure people have money to buy food.

    Declining petro prices are going to have a major deflationary effect on prices, and they won't recover until there is some natural selection in the petroleum market. Saudi Arabia and Russia are not minor players, and until they put their differences aside, things will be difficult for petro producers. Long-term interest rates are trending negative. 10 year T-Bill offers .88% interest. German long term interest rates are -.47%, you are paying the German government to take your money.

    , @Mr. Rational
    I just got back from a grocery run.  An item that was $8.99 a few weeks ago is now $10.49.  This is a staggering rate of inflation.
  12. @Bragadocious
    Such a ray of sunshine you are.

    I don't see it. People still have to eat. You can't outsource that to China yet. Everything will be open in a month and the places will be packed.

    People are eating now and the restaurants are closed, but I hope you’re right.

    • Replies: @Bragadocious

    People are eating now and the restaurants are closed.

     

    True, but this is getting on people's nerves. There are a lot of people who really hate shopping and making their own food. I know some folks like this who literally never use their kitchens. They love eating out and they're miserable right now.
  13. @Mark G.
    When things get worse economically the country may turn to social conservatism. The country became more socially conservative in the Great Depression than it was in the Roaring Twenties and the Stagflation Seventies ended the Swinging Sixties. Movies may turn away from sex towards romance and escapism as people try to escape for a few hours from the dismal reality of daily life.

    The coronavirus itself will hang around for awhile and the memory of it for even longer. This will help along the new puritanism. People will not want to engage in activities where they come into close physical contact with lots of strangers. Strip clubs and massage parlors will lose customers and shut down. More people will engage in long term exclusive relationships.

    Religious belief may increase. People will become less materialistic as the possibility of achieving riches become out of reach for many of them and they will turn to religion for solace in their difficulties. You could also have a form of Stoicism become popular. Stoicism encourages people not to worry about things outside their control and there will be many more things outside their control in the future.

    Stress to strength, pressure to power.

  14. @Lot
    Malls are doing a lot worse than strip malls. The only mall in my hometown shut down permanently in the 09 recession and is completely vacant still. Probably a bad investment since it was built in the 1980s and went downhill in the 00s, so really only had 20 good years.

    The strip malls are doing fine though. One had a string of 5 small stores combined into a gym. The old ones have gone downscale with thrift stores and dingy ethnic grocery stores, but are still operating. The better tenants moved to new strip malls further out in new suburbs, and have Kohls/Target type anchor tenants. Dollar store chains are growing rapidly and almost always in strip malls.

    Thanks for articulating the distinction between traditional malls and strip malls. The terms sound similar but they’re distinct kinds of retail operations. Malls have been dying for decades. We’re in the beginning stages of the death of strip malls, though this death will in retrospect look more like an asteroid hit than a gradual extinction.

    • Replies: @iffen
    Malls have been dying for decades.

    Not least because they became hangouts for disorderly utes.
  15. @Divine Right
    The economy will eventually recover as long as there is demand for something. Most of the jobs that have been lost can't simply be outsourced as manufacturing has been. If fact, most of those jobs can't even be outsourced out of state or out of city. How many people will drive across state or city lines for a beer or a hamburger? Those are the jobs that have been lost, many of them anyway. They'll be back in some form at some point in time.

    In the worst case scenario, the government could always provide a jumpstart to the economy through public works projects like an expansion of Amtrak, minerals mining, road projects, etc. In the long run, this could also turn out to be a good thing. Eliminating some gig jobs means more competition for those that remain, thus crowding out legal and illegal immigrants and waking up the public to the inevitable post-Covid amnesty and increased legal immigration calls.

    In any case, the trend you note was already upon us. Covid just accelerated it. That's good. Otherwise, there would have been a slow burn until everything collapsed through technological innovation anyway. Imagine a USA in the future alternate timeline, one with another 60 million immigrants in it, many low wage with no potential for advancing beyond that. The economy implodes as the dollar fades away as the global reserve currency and automation finishes off the service sector. That country is in a far worse position than this one is now, which is already pretty dire. At least now there is a whisper of a hope.

    If I controlled the deepstate, I'd massively exaggerate Covid-19 as an excuse to permanently seal the southern border in a manner that can't easily be reversed by future democrats: landmines. That'd go a long way to stabilizing the demographics such that the USA isn't totally destroyed by mid century. You should take this as an opportunity to lobby for change. Make it loud and maybe someone listens. Think of how things were going before. You yourself worried about getting a Sulla. Maybe that's inevitable now -- but maybe not by quite as much. It certainly was before.



    Good things that could eventually come from this:

    Better quality movies and television as companies fight over scarcer dollars, forcing them to produce superior content. Do I even need to list some of what was planned for future Hollywood movies before Covid-19? Search at your psychological peril.

    Deplatforming of SJWs from companies as they return to market-based fundamentals; no more manuscript sensitivity reviews, no more politically correct gatekeepers in books, movies, games, and comics because those guys are now all out of the job.

    The closure of numerous divisive click bait rags like Salon and Buzzfeed. The national mood could return to a more agreeable state once that pool of bigotry dries up (Salon: "Hallmark is Fascist Propaganda").

    Fewer useless college degrees.

    A national healthcare service like the UK's NHS. That would require more doctors, meaning more overall opportunities for white kids unduly discriminated against by Affirmative Action and professional school salary gatekeeping.

    Coronavirus was the pin that pricked the economic bubble, but something was bound to be. There was a hope that maybe we could keep the bubble inflated long enough for some revolutionary technology–CRISPR 2.0, viable nuclear fusion, successful SENS, etc–to rocket humanity forward, but if that isn’t forthcoming soon, I agree we’re better off swallowing the bitter medicine now because it’s only going to taste even worse the longer we put off taking it.

  16. Drug abuse, listlessness, alcoholism, depression, suicide–the drivers of deaths of despair–are going to get worse.

    No they won’t. They’ll peak in the West in a couple years and decline. “Deaths of despair” was a passing fad driven by greater drug supply. It actually started in the late 1990s, which should tell you something.

    Work opportunities in suburbs everywhere have gone away and many are never coming back.

    Unemployment was at record lows a month and a half ago. It can come back to that level in a couple years.

    Many of the 17 million and growing Americans out a job aren’t returning to work anytime soon, if ever.

    That’s a rather pessimistic view both of the recuperative abilities of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve’s competence.

    I’ve never said we were “on the brink of hyperinflation”. My prediction is we are going to see a sharp increase in consumer prices, my guess is pushing double-digit year-over-year.

    Would be a very good thing if true. It would indicate the Fed isn’t completely full of idiots.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    The unemployment rate was low, but the labor participation rate was middling. It just got a loss worse and I don't think it's coming back to 63%:

    https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2019/~/media/Images/research/economics/2019/0219/0219c1.png
  17. Mass furlough and layoff of service sector employes without any impact on the Ruling Cla$$ exposes the lie the Ruling Cla$$ told us from the 1970’s on, the lie that service sector work- the so-called “service sector economy” – was a suitable, even preferable replacement for the solid jobs lost due to the Ruling Cla$$ profiting enormously from its outsourcing of American industries, jobs, and careers to foreign powers.

    I expect, Audacious Epigone, that you’re right about millions of service sector jobs not returning and about the consequential permanent loss of service sector employment to scores of millions of Americans. The only benefit to come to Americans from that might be – and that’s a big “might” – that illegal aliens and maybe even foreigner legal residents may also find their services no longer employable, so that they might return to their own countries. The potential for an exodus of foreigners may also come as a result of their being ineligible for those great big (woo-hoo!) $1,200 bailout checks.

    • Replies: @Brian Reilly
    Auntie, Much as I would like to believe that there will be a significant re-patriation of the immigrants (illegal and not) in the US, I just don't think it is likely. As bad as things get in the US (and I have a feeling they will really suck for a whole lot of people) it is still far preferable to things in rural Mexico/Central America or (coming soon!) Africa. You can bet there will be a lot of available shipping that will be hired to bring Africans to the US. Give them a few more months.

    Our political representatives are ALL (both parties, local, state, and Federal, without significant exception) open borders progs, so we won't get any help from them either. We are going to see construction sites and landscape crews, as well as what hotel.restaurant services returns, staffed almost exclusively by Hispanic illegals, with black and white citizens on the dole.

    I sure hope I am wrong.
    , @Audacious Epigone
    Yeah, the place--our home--might take such a drubbing that no one has a reason to come here anymore!
  18. @Audacious Epigone
    People are eating now and the restaurants are closed, but I hope you're right.

    People are eating now and the restaurants are closed.

    True, but this is getting on people’s nerves. There are a lot of people who really hate shopping and making their own food. I know some folks like this who literally never use their kitchens. They love eating out and they’re miserable right now.

    • Replies: @Anon
    Your talking about MOTs right?
  19. @Divine Right
    The economy will eventually recover as long as there is demand for something. Most of the jobs that have been lost can't simply be outsourced as manufacturing has been. If fact, most of those jobs can't even be outsourced out of state or out of city. How many people will drive across state or city lines for a beer or a hamburger? Those are the jobs that have been lost, many of them anyway. They'll be back in some form at some point in time.

    In the worst case scenario, the government could always provide a jumpstart to the economy through public works projects like an expansion of Amtrak, minerals mining, road projects, etc. In the long run, this could also turn out to be a good thing. Eliminating some gig jobs means more competition for those that remain, thus crowding out legal and illegal immigrants and waking up the public to the inevitable post-Covid amnesty and increased legal immigration calls.

    In any case, the trend you note was already upon us. Covid just accelerated it. That's good. Otherwise, there would have been a slow burn until everything collapsed through technological innovation anyway. Imagine a USA in the future alternate timeline, one with another 60 million immigrants in it, many low wage with no potential for advancing beyond that. The economy implodes as the dollar fades away as the global reserve currency and automation finishes off the service sector. That country is in a far worse position than this one is now, which is already pretty dire. At least now there is a whisper of a hope.

    If I controlled the deepstate, I'd massively exaggerate Covid-19 as an excuse to permanently seal the southern border in a manner that can't easily be reversed by future democrats: landmines. That'd go a long way to stabilizing the demographics such that the USA isn't totally destroyed by mid century. You should take this as an opportunity to lobby for change. Make it loud and maybe someone listens. Think of how things were going before. You yourself worried about getting a Sulla. Maybe that's inevitable now -- but maybe not by quite as much. It certainly was before.



    Good things that could eventually come from this:

    Better quality movies and television as companies fight over scarcer dollars, forcing them to produce superior content. Do I even need to list some of what was planned for future Hollywood movies before Covid-19? Search at your psychological peril.

    Deplatforming of SJWs from companies as they return to market-based fundamentals; no more manuscript sensitivity reviews, no more politically correct gatekeepers in books, movies, games, and comics because those guys are now all out of the job.

    The closure of numerous divisive click bait rags like Salon and Buzzfeed. The national mood could return to a more agreeable state once that pool of bigotry dries up (Salon: "Hallmark is Fascist Propaganda").

    Fewer useless college degrees.

    A national healthcare service like the UK's NHS. That would require more doctors, meaning more overall opportunities for white kids unduly discriminated against by Affirmative Action and professional school salary gatekeeping.

    The economy will eventually recover as long as there is demand for something. Most of the jobs that have been lost can’t simply be outsourced as manufacturing has been.

    Yeah, some/most of those jobs may/will comeback, but most restaurant, small time service jobs, the type at strip malls, are shitty jobs anyway, and it won’t come as some great relief if a large number do return, just business going back to the shitty normal. And I don’t mean to disparage by calling them shitty jobs. I have done plenty of these jobs and am doing one right now, doing so because I’m desperate and broke, but hope springs and my anticipation is to move into a job more agreeable, but, that said, America seems to be overweighted with shitty jobs now, and the truth is for many of those doing these jobs there will be no progression up and out, but with this thing even those shitty jobs are valuable (again, I know, because I’m doing one) and it really sucks that many of these jobs have been cratered, because you don’t know 21st century American fear until you are a week away from homelessness. I live in a city where to become homeless is to walk to death’s door. Homelessness is scary.

    Again, though, before this thing the plutocracy was unperturbed about creating an America where so many adult American men and women languish in these shitty jobs, decade after decade, with little hope into shifting into something, anything more fulfilling. The 1% and their 10% hatchet men really hate you. They really do. I understand now the incendiary class hatred that endured in Russia 1918. I can really understand it. I wonder if 90% of America will come to this hatred? Well, 90% won’t, because 17% of Americans work for the government, and government workers will ALWAYS back the state status quo, but 90-17= 73 and that is a very large number. 73% of American imbued with a zealous hatred of the top 10? We can dream.

    • Replies: @Twinkie

    Yeah, some/most of those jobs may/will comeback, but most restaurant, small time service jobs, the type at strip malls, are shitty jobs anyway
     
    They may be “shitty” to you and me, but they provide valuable entry level work to young people and the undertrained who have trouble gaining a foothold in the workforce.

    I suspect restaurant will reopen and be more amenable to having delivery service than before, which was previously the purview of Asian takeouts and pizza parlors. One thing I really like and miss about South Korea is the ubiquity of delivery service - you can pretty much have delivered almost any kind of food (often very high quality) to just about any location. I always wished more restaurants in the U.S. delivered and that may happen in the future.

    https://youtu.be/3SYQcJpEjIY

    https://youtu.be/ghiPN1hNBao
    , @Audacious Epigone
    As nodwink has noted, living wages for low-skilled but competent work is the compromise. Failing to make it is asking for unrest.
  20. @PhilK
    Here in East Tennessee, quite a few formerly-empty medium-sized malls are now occupied by churches.

    Here in East Tennessee, quite a few formerly-empty medium-sized malls are now occupied by churches.

    And that’s a good thing? Sorry, don’t want to offend, but Protestantism was a turn into a dead end for human civic/social development. These holly-roller Protestant sects pretty much deliver the message that your lesser status in life is just God’s will and you just must endure it. American ex-urban Protestantism trains the mind and souls of it’s votaries to be the house ni**ers of the plutocracy. If you are going to take up the Christian faith, go Orthodox (Catholic/Eastern no matter) or don’t do it at all. Christianity needs no reform, never did, but American social and economic relations sure do.

    • Disagree: Alden
    • Replies: @Diversity Heretic
    Catholic? With this pope and Catholic Charities being a major conduit for race-replacing immigration? Sorry, I'll pass. Maybe the Catholic churches that follow the teachings of French Archbishop Marcel Lefebvre are worth trying but how many congregations are there?

    I have attended a couple of Orthodox services but they are strange to someone raised in an austere Presbyterian church.
    , @PhilK
    And that’s a good thing?

    I'm pretty sure the property owners think it's a good thing. My point wasn't about religion, but about real estate usage.

    But anyways, thanks for your suggestion that I adopt Catholicism or Orthodoxy. In turn, I'd like to recommend that you check out Swedenborgianism.
    , @Alden
    What a bigoted comment. Churches offer many non religious wonderful things such as children and teen activities, clubs for men and women, fiestas, seasonal celebrations. Church is a great way to meet nice respectable people and friends for your kids.

    Those southern Protestant churches also do a lot of support and help for members who need help. Such as taking care of kids when single parent is in hospital, visiting and helping with housework, for shut in old and disabled, arranging funerals, a room of donated clothes for those who need them, job referrals, housing referrals. It may not be Catholic Charities billion dollar budget, but those small congregations do a lot of good.
    The church clubs also are ready to chip in helping with natural disasters.
  21. Just as I don’t think that things are as good as they look in good times, I don’t believe that things are as desperate as they seem in bad times. People in general tend to swing too much to extremes under stress and overshoot reality in their mental constructs.

    In other words, be pessimistic in good times and be optimistic in bad times.

    Drug abuse, listlessness, alcoholism, depression, suicide–the drivers of deaths of despair–are going to get worse. They’re going to metastasize all over the country. Work opportunities in suburbs everywhere have gone away and many are never coming back. Many of the 17 million and growing Americans out a job aren’t returning to work anytime soon, if ever.

    I think this is much too pessimistic.

    Germany, Japan, Korea, and for a more recent example, former Yugoslavia were utterly wrecked by war, but people rebuilt and moved on. We are still a country with lots of ingenious and hard working people. We will adapt to changing circumstances and persevere.

    Renewal is possible. And sometimes the worst of times brings out the best in people.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Daniel H
    I think this is much too pessimistic.

    Come to Las Vegas, you may change your opinion.
    , @BlackC
    During those post-war rebuildings, Germany was still mostly German, Japan was still almost entirely Japanese, and Korea was still almost entirely Korean.

    Yugoslavia was multi-ethnic so it had to break up into more homogenous parts which then could work together as more or less unified tribes to recover and rebuild.

    This poses the question of which model applies to America, and I expect it will be the Yugoslavia model. After all, how can America work together to recover as a unified tribe when Diversity Is Our Strength? Of course there will be some recovery from the ultimate lows, but it will not be uniform, likely leading to another ten or so years of increasing internal tensions and balkanization; i.e. the Yugoslavia route. How the various parts emerging from the breakup will fare will depend entirely on the character and cohesiveness of the respective cohorts.
    , @dfordoom

    Just as I don’t think that things are as good as they look in good times, I don’t believe that things are as desperate as they seem in bad times. People in general tend to swing too much to extremes under stress and overshoot reality in their mental constructs.
     
    That's a good point. It's also impossible to predict even the short-term future with any degree of accuracy. Nobody knows what the economic consequences of this will be. They might be catastrophic, they might be minor, they might be somewhere in between. Some sectors of the economy will almost certainly be devastated. Other sectors may boom.
    , @Oo-ee-oo-ah-ah-ting-tang-walla-walla-bing-bang
    “Korea” ABSOLUTELY did not “move on”. SOUTH Korea may have, sure, but that’s ~50%. Korea, to mean the Korean Peninsula, is aggregated to 3rd world.
    And I’m not sure how much you know about the Yugo example. Croatia and Slovenia have moved on, and almost everywhere else is subjectively worse off. Places like Kosovo and Macedonia are objectively worse off, often even at face value w/o counting for price adjustment due to inflation
    , @Truth
    Admittedly I don't know much about your religion, Big Twinx, but it is my understanding that even Catholics believe in the end times.

    ...Guess what, you're in it.
  22. @Mark G.
    When things get worse economically the country may turn to social conservatism. The country became more socially conservative in the Great Depression than it was in the Roaring Twenties and the Stagflation Seventies ended the Swinging Sixties. Movies may turn away from sex towards romance and escapism as people try to escape for a few hours from the dismal reality of daily life.

    The coronavirus itself will hang around for awhile and the memory of it for even longer. This will help along the new puritanism. People will not want to engage in activities where they come into close physical contact with lots of strangers. Strip clubs and massage parlors will lose customers and shut down. More people will engage in long term exclusive relationships.

    Religious belief may increase. People will become less materialistic as the possibility of achieving riches become out of reach for many of them and they will turn to religion for solace in their difficulties. You could also have a form of Stoicism become popular. Stoicism encourages people not to worry about things outside their control and there will be many more things outside their control in the future.

    Strip clubs and massage parlors will lose customers and shut down.

    Strip clubs might survive, as long as they preserve social distancing. Always stay six feet away from the strippers!

    Massage parlours and brothels may be in trouble. Maybe Trump will have to bail out the prostitution industry. Hook-up culture may take a major hit as well.

    People might be afraid to have casual sex but they’ll still be interested in watching sex. The porn industry will boom. There could be an incel pandemic.

    More people will engage in long term exclusive relationships.

    Logically they should. But there are reasons why long-term relationships have declined, and why men in particular are reluctant to engage in them. Maybe people will avoid casual hook-ups but have more short-term relationships. Will marriage make a comeback? That depends on how much economic insecurity there is. It also depends on whether the fallout from the virus hysteria enables employers to reduce permanent workforces and replace them with more casual staff. That will make marriage less attractive.

    It’s possible birth rates will increase. Personally I suspect they’ll plummet but it’s hard to predict.

    Religious belief may increase.

    Possibly, but I doubt that mainstream Christian churches will benefit. It’s possible that it will be fringe religions that will attract more people. Again, very hard to predict.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    UBI, some form of which I think is coming, may actually be a boon for marriage (or at least cohabitation). Two subsistence 'incomes' under one roof are better than one.
    , @Mark G.

    Strip clubs might survive, as long as they preserve social distancing. Always stay six feet away from the strippers!
     
    Palm readers may be in trouble in the near future. Maybe they can read palms while looking through a pair of binoculars.
    , @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    Make it possible for working class white men to have a better future than clerk at Wal-Mart and you will see more marriage! Middle class and Upper Class people still get married and have long term relationships. It's just not financially possible for lower class men anymore.

    Ban: Tinder, Sugar Daddy websites, and pornhub. Make men and women go out in person and meet each other again.

    Change: Divorce laws, permit financial abortion, and make sure every man signs a prenup.

    Marriage and long term relationships will increase again.
  23. @Daniel H
    The economy will eventually recover as long as there is demand for something. Most of the jobs that have been lost can’t simply be outsourced as manufacturing has been.

    Yeah, some/most of those jobs may/will comeback, but most restaurant, small time service jobs, the type at strip malls, are shitty jobs anyway, and it won't come as some great relief if a large number do return, just business going back to the shitty normal. And I don't mean to disparage by calling them shitty jobs. I have done plenty of these jobs and am doing one right now, doing so because I'm desperate and broke, but hope springs and my anticipation is to move into a job more agreeable, but, that said, America seems to be overweighted with shitty jobs now, and the truth is for many of those doing these jobs there will be no progression up and out, but with this thing even those shitty jobs are valuable (again, I know, because I'm doing one) and it really sucks that many of these jobs have been cratered, because you don't know 21st century American fear until you are a week away from homelessness. I live in a city where to become homeless is to walk to death's door. Homelessness is scary.

    Again, though, before this thing the plutocracy was unperturbed about creating an America where so many adult American men and women languish in these shitty jobs, decade after decade, with little hope into shifting into something, anything more fulfilling. The 1% and their 10% hatchet men really hate you. They really do. I understand now the incendiary class hatred that endured in Russia 1918. I can really understand it. I wonder if 90% of America will come to this hatred? Well, 90% won't, because 17% of Americans work for the government, and government workers will ALWAYS back the state status quo, but 90-17= 73 and that is a very large number. 73% of American imbued with a zealous hatred of the top 10? We can dream.

    Yeah, some/most of those jobs may/will comeback, but most restaurant, small time service jobs, the type at strip malls, are shitty jobs anyway

    They may be “shitty” to you and me, but they provide valuable entry level work to young people and the undertrained who have trouble gaining a foothold in the workforce.

    I suspect restaurant will reopen and be more amenable to having delivery service than before, which was previously the purview of Asian takeouts and pizza parlors. One thing I really like and miss about South Korea is the ubiquity of delivery service – you can pretty much have delivered almost any kind of food (often very high quality) to just about any location. I always wished more restaurants in the U.S. delivered and that may happen in the future.

    • Replies: @Daniel H
    They may be “shitty” to you and me, but they provide valuable entry level work to young people and the undertrained who have trouble gaining a foothold in the workforce.

    Duh-uh, isn't that what I said/implied? But shitty jobs are not enough, and it seems that we have an overabundance of them.
    , @Alden
    Those shitty jobs go nowhere. The only way a young person can advance from a shitty job is to leave it for a decent career job.

    Unless there’s a good union. For instance grocery stores. The big chains are unionized and pay decent wages so the workers can buy homes own cars and have kids. The non union ones are minimum wage except for the stores that employ illegal aliens.

    Restaurant managers are often on monthly salary rather than hourly minimum wage. Sounds good until you divide weekly salary by the 60-70 hours worked a week and realize their hourly wage is less than minimum wage.

    In my state, teen and young Whites are never hired for shitty jobs. It’s all immigrants many illegal whose basic support comes from their children’s welfare benefits and government housing.

    It’s not 1920.
  24. @Twinkie

    Yeah, some/most of those jobs may/will comeback, but most restaurant, small time service jobs, the type at strip malls, are shitty jobs anyway
     
    They may be “shitty” to you and me, but they provide valuable entry level work to young people and the undertrained who have trouble gaining a foothold in the workforce.

    I suspect restaurant will reopen and be more amenable to having delivery service than before, which was previously the purview of Asian takeouts and pizza parlors. One thing I really like and miss about South Korea is the ubiquity of delivery service - you can pretty much have delivered almost any kind of food (often very high quality) to just about any location. I always wished more restaurants in the U.S. delivered and that may happen in the future.

    https://youtu.be/3SYQcJpEjIY

    https://youtu.be/ghiPN1hNBao

    They may be “shitty” to you and me, but they provide valuable entry level work to young people and the undertrained who have trouble gaining a foothold in the workforce.

    Duh-uh, isn’t that what I said/implied? But shitty jobs are not enough, and it seems that we have an overabundance of them.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
    The problem is not the retail jobs in and of themselves so much as they are *way* too dominant in the bottom sector of the economy. You can make all the fancy neoliberal arguments you like, an economy that primarily relies off the service sector as opposed to actually producing valuable stuff is not going to be as durable when shit hits the fan. The service and retail sector should be a way of getting American teenagers into the workforce: not a place where increasing amount of Americans are confined to, if they can even break into it at all.

    (If I could do it again, I'd go to electrician school and spend my nights studying physics, but...)

    And due to multiple factors, mass low-skilled immigration flooding the labor market being one of them (I've met plenty of employers who refuse to hire non-illegals), even these kinds of jobs are harder to get than they were 40 years ago. You increasingly need to know somebody or have unpaid experience beforehand to get many blue-collar jobs. I should know: I was lucky enough to benefit from this nepotism. When I was working as a house painter, my boss was not only a family friend, we had a deep common connection point.

  25. @Twinkie
    Just as I don’t think that things are as good as they look in good times, I don’t believe that things are as desperate as they seem in bad times. People in general tend to swing too much to extremes under stress and overshoot reality in their mental constructs.

    In other words, be pessimistic in good times and be optimistic in bad times.


    Drug abuse, listlessness, alcoholism, depression, suicide–the drivers of deaths of despair–are going to get worse. They’re going to metastasize all over the country. Work opportunities in suburbs everywhere have gone away and many are never coming back. Many of the 17 million and growing Americans out a job aren’t returning to work anytime soon, if ever.
     
    I think this is much too pessimistic.

    Germany, Japan, Korea, and for a more recent example, former Yugoslavia were utterly wrecked by war, but people rebuilt and moved on. We are still a country with lots of ingenious and hard working people. We will adapt to changing circumstances and persevere.

    Renewal is possible. And sometimes the worst of times brings out the best in people.

    I think this is much too pessimistic.

    Come to Las Vegas, you may change your opinion.

    • Replies: @Big Dick Bandit
    lolling at the response to somebody saying "i face existential dread from the inescapable meaninglessness of labor forced upon me by a corrupt system" being "ack-shully, those jobs are just fine and delivery food is delicious"
  26. anon[324] • Disclaimer says:

    The desolation of the country’s brick-and-mortar retail spaces, including bars, restaurants, botique shops,

    Very emotional statement. Think for a while.
    Physical retail space in large air conditioned malls with huge overhead is in decline, but brick and mortar retail not so much. All the grocers that I shop in are in strip malls, for example.

    Bars? Restaurants? Botique shops? Those change hands but they rarely just vanish.

    Think in terms of function rather than emotional reminiscence. The indoor shopping mall traditionally has been anchored by 2 or 3 big stores. Sears, Penny’s, WalMart, etc. A mix of mid range, some low end, and some high end stores. Really big malls are still working on that model, but midrange are finding that the Gen X doesn’t really care if Lady Kenmore is in town or not. They buy appliances at Best Buy, Home Depot, Lowe’s or even online.

    In the small to medium mall, high end is gone. Mid range and lower range is still there. Online is beating them. “The Mall” as an experience of 1980’s – 2000 is pretty much gone. oh, well.

    No, you won’t get to hang at the mall with your buds checking out girls in the food court, before hitting up the game store and looking at CD’s in the music shop but so what? Is there no other way to socialize? Maybe the current “coffee shop” trend is part of that? Nobody sells CD’s much anymore anyway.

    Not too many years ago a lot of flyover towns did not have a “coffee shop”, until Starbucks showed up. Now it’s a thing, so every campus area has multiple ones. Guess what, they are social centers for people under 30 and there’s no real reason teenagers can’t go there as well.

    Malls are maintenance intensive. Stripmalls are not. Stand alone commercial RE is not as expensive. Online is much cheaper.

    Things change. Why do we need a name for “excess commercial RE”? It’s not that important.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Why do we need a name for “excess commercial RE”? It’s not that important.

    Because it's going to have similar economic consequences to what has happened to the rust belt over the last thirty years. Manufacturing automobiles in America isn't economically efficient, either. Why do we need a name for excess former manufacturing capacity?
  27. @Twinkie
    Just as I don’t think that things are as good as they look in good times, I don’t believe that things are as desperate as they seem in bad times. People in general tend to swing too much to extremes under stress and overshoot reality in their mental constructs.

    In other words, be pessimistic in good times and be optimistic in bad times.


    Drug abuse, listlessness, alcoholism, depression, suicide–the drivers of deaths of despair–are going to get worse. They’re going to metastasize all over the country. Work opportunities in suburbs everywhere have gone away and many are never coming back. Many of the 17 million and growing Americans out a job aren’t returning to work anytime soon, if ever.
     
    I think this is much too pessimistic.

    Germany, Japan, Korea, and for a more recent example, former Yugoslavia were utterly wrecked by war, but people rebuilt and moved on. We are still a country with lots of ingenious and hard working people. We will adapt to changing circumstances and persevere.

    Renewal is possible. And sometimes the worst of times brings out the best in people.

    During those post-war rebuildings, Germany was still mostly German, Japan was still almost entirely Japanese, and Korea was still almost entirely Korean.

    Yugoslavia was multi-ethnic so it had to break up into more homogenous parts which then could work together as more or less unified tribes to recover and rebuild.

    This poses the question of which model applies to America, and I expect it will be the Yugoslavia model. After all, how can America work together to recover as a unified tribe when Diversity Is Our Strength? Of course there will be some recovery from the ultimate lows, but it will not be uniform, likely leading to another ten or so years of increasing internal tensions and balkanization; i.e. the Yugoslavia route. How the various parts emerging from the breakup will fare will depend entirely on the character and cohesiveness of the respective cohorts.

  28. This has been said up-thread, but I think a politician with enough vision and guts could start employing all those people with manufacturing and infrastructure projects. It’s a golden opportunity to kill two birds with one stone if you grasp it right.

  29. >This poses the question of which model applies to America, and I expect it will be the Yugoslavia model.

    For all of our sakes, we should hope not…

  30. @Daniel H
    They may be “shitty” to you and me, but they provide valuable entry level work to young people and the undertrained who have trouble gaining a foothold in the workforce.

    Duh-uh, isn't that what I said/implied? But shitty jobs are not enough, and it seems that we have an overabundance of them.

    The problem is not the retail jobs in and of themselves so much as they are *way* too dominant in the bottom sector of the economy. You can make all the fancy neoliberal arguments you like, an economy that primarily relies off the service sector as opposed to actually producing valuable stuff is not going to be as durable when shit hits the fan. The service and retail sector should be a way of getting American teenagers into the workforce: not a place where increasing amount of Americans are confined to, if they can even break into it at all.

    (If I could do it again, I’d go to electrician school and spend my nights studying physics, but…)

    And due to multiple factors, mass low-skilled immigration flooding the labor market being one of them (I’ve met plenty of employers who refuse to hire non-illegals), even these kinds of jobs are harder to get than they were 40 years ago. You increasingly need to know somebody or have unpaid experience beforehand to get many blue-collar jobs. I should know: I was lucky enough to benefit from this nepotism. When I was working as a house painter, my boss was not only a family friend, we had a deep common connection point.

    • Agree: Mark G.
  31. @Lot
    Malls are doing a lot worse than strip malls. The only mall in my hometown shut down permanently in the 09 recession and is completely vacant still. Probably a bad investment since it was built in the 1980s and went downhill in the 00s, so really only had 20 good years.

    The strip malls are doing fine though. One had a string of 5 small stores combined into a gym. The old ones have gone downscale with thrift stores and dingy ethnic grocery stores, but are still operating. The better tenants moved to new strip malls further out in new suburbs, and have Kohls/Target type anchor tenants. Dollar store chains are growing rapidly and almost always in strip malls.

    Lots of people (especially teenagers) used to hang out at the mall, as a form of social activity. Now that smart phones are so popular and people are so socially reclusive, malls really aren’t focal points for socialization anymore.

    People may occasionally go to the mall to browse, but hanging out at the mall regularly isn’t really so common these days. Back in the 80s, people used to swarm the malls. You’d see hordes of teens everywhere, just shooting the breeze and having fun. The difference between then and now is like night and day. It’s interesting how anti-social so many people are these days, especially younger people.

    If strip malls are less affected, it’s probably because strip malls never were that dependent on people looking to hang out with their friends. So this trend towards social hibernation is less important for them. However, strip malls are still affected by declining consumer purchasing power, as well as competition from online retailers.

    • Replies: @grim prognosis
    People may occasionally go to the mall to browse, but hanging out at the mall regularly isn’t really so common these days. Back in the 80s, people used to swarm the malls. You’d see hordes of teens everywhere, just shooting the breeze and having fun. The difference between then and now is like night and day. It’s interesting how anti-social so many people are these days, especially younger people.

    Before that they would go to ball games, swimming holes, playgrounds,someone's party, rec rooms. The mall didn't represent sociability or the last era of it, it was the beginning of the decline in sociability and a retreat from the truly open and public to the cloistered and commercialized. I hated them as a teenager in the 80's. I wanted to be out doing stuff. Huckleberry Finn would have died there.

    Seriously, until then, kids created their space a lot of the time- secret forts and hangouts by the river and whatnot. Children consider the free and open some terra incognita now. All that 80's satanic panic in the woods media hype- just another excuse for parents to hovercraft and for children to retreat back into the screen. I could see it coming even then and knew it was screwy.

    , @Patricus
    I wonder if the death of malls is related to the large number of foot paces required to get to a destination within the mall. At a strip mall one can park 20 or 30 paces from the desired store. The traditional mall may require hundreds of paces. Where I live there are quite a few very successful strip malls. There are some dying large shopping malls.
    , @SIMP simp
    Being a hang out spot for broke, hyperactive teenagers is not a plus for a mall because even your average behaved teenagers are loud, destructive and they annoy the customers who actually have money to spend.
    I've seen this in the documentary Complicated by Avril Lavigne.
    Add hobos and gangbangers to the mix and it's easy to see why indoor malls are following the same trajectory as other public spaces across the US.
    , @billywalker

    Back in the 80s, people used to swarm the malls. You’d see hordes of teens everywhere, just shooting the breeze and having fun.
     
    Oh, there are still hordes of teens swarming the malls these days, they're just all of a certain complexion and they're busy looting the stores.
  32. @Twinkie
    Just as I don’t think that things are as good as they look in good times, I don’t believe that things are as desperate as they seem in bad times. People in general tend to swing too much to extremes under stress and overshoot reality in their mental constructs.

    In other words, be pessimistic in good times and be optimistic in bad times.


    Drug abuse, listlessness, alcoholism, depression, suicide–the drivers of deaths of despair–are going to get worse. They’re going to metastasize all over the country. Work opportunities in suburbs everywhere have gone away and many are never coming back. Many of the 17 million and growing Americans out a job aren’t returning to work anytime soon, if ever.
     
    I think this is much too pessimistic.

    Germany, Japan, Korea, and for a more recent example, former Yugoslavia were utterly wrecked by war, but people rebuilt and moved on. We are still a country with lots of ingenious and hard working people. We will adapt to changing circumstances and persevere.

    Renewal is possible. And sometimes the worst of times brings out the best in people.

    Just as I don’t think that things are as good as they look in good times, I don’t believe that things are as desperate as they seem in bad times. People in general tend to swing too much to extremes under stress and overshoot reality in their mental constructs.

    That’s a good point. It’s also impossible to predict even the short-term future with any degree of accuracy. Nobody knows what the economic consequences of this will be. They might be catastrophic, they might be minor, they might be somewhere in between. Some sectors of the economy will almost certainly be devastated. Other sectors may boom.

  33. anon[139] • Disclaimer says:

    Suppose manufacturing of consumer goods is repatriated from China/elsewhere. What does that do to online retail?

    Shopping online is generally a confusing and frustrating experience unless you know precisely what you want, in which case you simply find whoever’s selling it cheapest.

    Can retailers compete solely on price without cheap foreign manufacturing? What if they can’t?

    Even if you don’t think “internet killed the brick-and-mortar star” is half-bunk, I’d say the future’s a little brighter for brick-and-mortar. More so if the current ructions kill universities and future generations no longer think themselves too good for retail.

  34. Aren’t we forgetting something?

    The (((White genocide agenda))) isn’t going away regardless of economic vagaries.

    How we deal with it will largely determine our future.

    • Agree: V. K. Ovelund
    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    We're forgetting how to make these discussion threads places influencers like Mrs. Malkin (yes, the term suggestion above is from the real deal herself) will frequent with loony comments like these.

    Outmarriage rates among non-Orthodox Jews approach 50%. Non-Orthodox Jews have fewer children than even white gentiles do. Whatever they're allegedly doing to white gentiles, they're doing even more so to themselves, I guess.

  35. I think the Titans of Wall St are in for a surprise too. With Central Banks setting the price for financial assets there isn’t going to be much need for a lot of people securitizing crap and trading it. Its all going to end up on the balance sheet of Central Banks so that Fed put Wall St. has relied on is going to PUT a lot of them out of business

  36. @Daniel H
    Here in East Tennessee, quite a few formerly-empty medium-sized malls are now occupied by churches.

    And that's a good thing? Sorry, don't want to offend, but Protestantism was a turn into a dead end for human civic/social development. These holly-roller Protestant sects pretty much deliver the message that your lesser status in life is just God's will and you just must endure it. American ex-urban Protestantism trains the mind and souls of it's votaries to be the house ni**ers of the plutocracy. If you are going to take up the Christian faith, go Orthodox (Catholic/Eastern no matter) or don't do it at all. Christianity needs no reform, never did, but American social and economic relations sure do.

    Catholic? With this pope and Catholic Charities being a major conduit for race-replacing immigration? Sorry, I’ll pass. Maybe the Catholic churches that follow the teachings of French Archbishop Marcel Lefebvre are worth trying but how many congregations are there?

    I have attended a couple of Orthodox services but they are strange to someone raised in an austere Presbyterian church.

    • Replies: @RSDB

    Maybe the Catholic churches that follow the teachings of French Archbishop Marcel Lefebvre are worth trying but how many congregations are there?
     
    I don't think Abp. Lefebvre had any distinctive teachings exactly (?), but you can find a list of SSPX locations here if you want: https://sspx.org/en/mass-locator

    The Catholic churches you will find most conformant to your ex-Presbyterian aesthetic (probably not the SSPX or FSSP) are generally the most liberal, so that might be a problem from your point of view.
  37. @Lot
    Malls are doing a lot worse than strip malls. The only mall in my hometown shut down permanently in the 09 recession and is completely vacant still. Probably a bad investment since it was built in the 1980s and went downhill in the 00s, so really only had 20 good years.

    The strip malls are doing fine though. One had a string of 5 small stores combined into a gym. The old ones have gone downscale with thrift stores and dingy ethnic grocery stores, but are still operating. The better tenants moved to new strip malls further out in new suburbs, and have Kohls/Target type anchor tenants. Dollar store chains are growing rapidly and almost always in strip malls.

    Gyms are going to be interesting to follow. Obviously, you can’t outsource them and fitness is an important aspect to many people’s lives, but the short and medium term germophobia will certainly do a number on them as a business. Hot moist area where tons of people are heavily sweating and respirating? That’s not a good look for the 2020’s

  38. @Audacious Epigone
    Thanks for articulating the distinction between traditional malls and strip malls. The terms sound similar but they're distinct kinds of retail operations. Malls have been dying for decades. We're in the beginning stages of the death of strip malls, though this death will in retrospect look more like an asteroid hit than a gradual extinction.

    Malls have been dying for decades.

    Not least because they became hangouts for disorderly utes.

  39. @Twinkie
    Just as I don’t think that things are as good as they look in good times, I don’t believe that things are as desperate as they seem in bad times. People in general tend to swing too much to extremes under stress and overshoot reality in their mental constructs.

    In other words, be pessimistic in good times and be optimistic in bad times.


    Drug abuse, listlessness, alcoholism, depression, suicide–the drivers of deaths of despair–are going to get worse. They’re going to metastasize all over the country. Work opportunities in suburbs everywhere have gone away and many are never coming back. Many of the 17 million and growing Americans out a job aren’t returning to work anytime soon, if ever.
     
    I think this is much too pessimistic.

    Germany, Japan, Korea, and for a more recent example, former Yugoslavia were utterly wrecked by war, but people rebuilt and moved on. We are still a country with lots of ingenious and hard working people. We will adapt to changing circumstances and persevere.

    Renewal is possible. And sometimes the worst of times brings out the best in people.

    “Korea” ABSOLUTELY did not “move on”. SOUTH Korea may have, sure, but that’s ~50%. Korea, to mean the Korean Peninsula, is aggregated to 3rd world.
    And I’m not sure how much you know about the Yugo example. Croatia and Slovenia have moved on, and almost everywhere else is subjectively worse off. Places like Kosovo and Macedonia are objectively worse off, often even at face value w/o counting for price adjustment due to inflation

    • Replies: @songbird
    And Germany, at least in a psychological sense, certainly hasn't moved on. They have a very deep psychosis about the war.
  40. @Bragadocious
    Such a ray of sunshine you are.

    I don't see it. People still have to eat. You can't outsource that to China yet. Everything will be open in a month and the places will be packed.

    ” I don’t see it” <– Imagine talking like this much of a dimwitted fucking cuck.

    • LOL: Big Dick Bandit
  41. @Bragadocious

    People are eating now and the restaurants are closed.

     

    True, but this is getting on people's nerves. There are a lot of people who really hate shopping and making their own food. I know some folks like this who literally never use their kitchens. They love eating out and they're miserable right now.

    Your talking about MOTs right?

  42. This is a God-send to most major mall owners and a lot of strip mall owners who were already teetering on the brink and will now be bought out of total write-offs for far more money than they would have received in a free market workout. Seriously, go buy up a couple strip malls for pennies on the dollar and hold on for the great bailout. You can use them in the meantime to run social-distancing appropriate Strip Clubs.

  43. Brick and mortar retail stores that continue to exist will now want more space to allow for less crowding. That increased space hopefully will be available cheaply.

  44. @Audacious Epigone
    I don't disagree with the thrust of your point regarding American retail space, but that doesn't change the reality of the pain that is coming.

    Stop moving the goal posts. I've never said we were "on the brink of hyperinflation". My prediction is we are going to see a sharp increase in consumer prices, my guess is pushing double-digit year-over-year. Food increased 0.3% in March even with restaurants closed. That annualizes to almost 4%. Energy and travel were way down, of course, so the total CPI declined, but there are effectively shortages in energy and travel at the moment, and shortages are the only way to avoid price inflation when there is a supply crunch.

    Don't butter up the terror bird just yet. Keep it in the cage and feed it well if you want, but I'm not stuffing it down yet!

    BLS report on CPI:

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf

    Processed goods, food and feed down -0.8% in March 2020. Total change for processed goods down -3.7% for 12 month period. Unprocessed goods down -15.4% for 12 month period. (Carbon steel scraps apparently doing well, up 3.8%).

    Now imagine April with lockdowns in force across the world. Not finding the Audacious rise in March food prices in the data.

    There may be some food inflation going forward, because most food in the developed world is not picked by the natives, and COVID-19 may impact labor markets. Of course, it would be hypocritical for nationalists to complain about food inflation as a result of immigration restrictions imposed from “above” as it were. There is little connection between declining food prices and the COVID stimulus, other than trying to insure people have money to buy food.

    Declining petro prices are going to have a major deflationary effect on prices, and they won’t recover until there is some natural selection in the petroleum market. Saudi Arabia and Russia are not minor players, and until they put their differences aside, things will be difficult for petro producers. Long-term interest rates are trending negative. 10 year T-Bill offers .88% interest. German long term interest rates are -.47%, you are paying the German government to take your money.

    • Replies: @Tulip
    Sorry PPI, trying to correct but timed out. Don't see how PPI goes down 15% without an impact on CPI downward.

    Here is CPI data:

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm?mod=article_inline



    All items.................. .1 .2 .2 .2 .1 .1 -.4 1.5
    Food...................... .2 .2 .1 .2 .2 .4 .3 1.9
    Food at home............. .1 .2 .1 .0 .1 .5 .5 1.1
    Food away from home (1).. .3 .2 .2 .3 .4 .2 .2 3.0


    CPI is down -.4 percent in March 2020. Total food up .3% in March 2020, which is 1.9% annualized. (Last column is annualized, second to last March 2020, going backwards by month from there.)

    Not seeing a lot of inflationary pressure, but then the stimulus money hasn't hit.

  45. @Tulip
    BLS report on CPI:

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf

    Processed goods, food and feed down -0.8% in March 2020. Total change for processed goods down -3.7% for 12 month period. Unprocessed goods down -15.4% for 12 month period. (Carbon steel scraps apparently doing well, up 3.8%).

    Now imagine April with lockdowns in force across the world. Not finding the Audacious rise in March food prices in the data.

    There may be some food inflation going forward, because most food in the developed world is not picked by the natives, and COVID-19 may impact labor markets. Of course, it would be hypocritical for nationalists to complain about food inflation as a result of immigration restrictions imposed from "above" as it were. There is little connection between declining food prices and the COVID stimulus, other than trying to insure people have money to buy food.

    Declining petro prices are going to have a major deflationary effect on prices, and they won't recover until there is some natural selection in the petroleum market. Saudi Arabia and Russia are not minor players, and until they put their differences aside, things will be difficult for petro producers. Long-term interest rates are trending negative. 10 year T-Bill offers .88% interest. German long term interest rates are -.47%, you are paying the German government to take your money.

    Sorry PPI, trying to correct but timed out. Don’t see how PPI goes down 15% without an impact on CPI downward.

    Here is CPI data:

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm?mod=article_inline

    All items……………… .1 .2 .2 .2 .1 .1 -.4 1.5
    Food…………………. .2 .2 .1 .2 .2 .4 .3 1.9
    Food at home…………. .1 .2 .1 .0 .1 .5 .5 1.1
    Food away from home (1).. .3 .2 .2 .3 .4 .2 .2 3.0

    CPI is down -.4 percent in March 2020. Total food up .3% in March 2020, which is 1.9% annualized. (Last column is annualized, second to last March 2020, going backwards by month from there.)

    Not seeing a lot of inflationary pressure, but then the stimulus money hasn’t hit.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    .3% a month is annualized to 3.6%, not 1.9%. That's with job losses, before unemployment, before stimulus checks, and before production took a real hit. It's going up from here, I suspect.
  46. Partly agree. High end malls will come back, but the average Cheesecake Factory-anchored mall (a company that is currently stiffing all of its landlords) is in deep trouble. Mall space is not cheap, and a lot of retailers even in the nicer malls were finding that the space for their product was too crowded before the pandemic hit.

    Also getting crushed are the array of farm-to-table and higher end restaurants that have sprung up in the last decade. Another sector where the space was too crowded, and where a lot of mid-sized (2M-3M metro) cities had already hit their saturation point before all this happened. Restaurants will eventually re-open but my guess is that their permitted occupancy will be reduced to allow for more distancing and places that rely on packing in people to be able to pay the rent are done. Which is a shame, because as opposed to malls I actually like going out to eat any don’t mind dropping the money to spend time out with the spouse and friends.

    Unemployment is going to rise and stay up there for awhile, but inevitably the economy always finds some way to employ most of them again – it just won’t be in retail for the most part.

  47. @Lot
    Malls are doing a lot worse than strip malls. The only mall in my hometown shut down permanently in the 09 recession and is completely vacant still. Probably a bad investment since it was built in the 1980s and went downhill in the 00s, so really only had 20 good years.

    The strip malls are doing fine though. One had a string of 5 small stores combined into a gym. The old ones have gone downscale with thrift stores and dingy ethnic grocery stores, but are still operating. The better tenants moved to new strip malls further out in new suburbs, and have Kohls/Target type anchor tenants. Dollar store chains are growing rapidly and almost always in strip malls.

    “Probably a bad investment”

    I don’t think commercial real estate developers have that long a time horizon. Projects need to pay for themselves a lot quicker than 20 years to get those guys interested.

    It might be a bad investment for the bank, though I think CRE loan terms normally aren’t longer than 10 years. So it would be the third bank to hold the loan that took the hit.

  48. Mall Pall.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Buck
    Strip Sunset is more American.

    Bricks and mortal?

    , @Reg Cæsar
    Retailspin.

    https://hbr.org/resources/images/article_assets/2016/09/sept16-08-182679518.jpg

    , @Truth
    Well I'll be a goose fried in chicken fat Audie... You have real C-lebrities as fans!
  49. @JohnnyWalker123
    Lots of people (especially teenagers) used to hang out at the mall, as a form of social activity. Now that smart phones are so popular and people are so socially reclusive, malls really aren't focal points for socialization anymore.

    People may occasionally go to the mall to browse, but hanging out at the mall regularly isn't really so common these days. Back in the 80s, people used to swarm the malls. You'd see hordes of teens everywhere, just shooting the breeze and having fun. The difference between then and now is like night and day. It's interesting how anti-social so many people are these days, especially younger people.

    If strip malls are less affected, it's probably because strip malls never were that dependent on people looking to hang out with their friends. So this trend towards social hibernation is less important for them. However, strip malls are still affected by declining consumer purchasing power, as well as competition from online retailers.

    People may occasionally go to the mall to browse, but hanging out at the mall regularly isn’t really so common these days. Back in the 80s, people used to swarm the malls. You’d see hordes of teens everywhere, just shooting the breeze and having fun. The difference between then and now is like night and day. It’s interesting how anti-social so many people are these days, especially younger people.

    Before that they would go to ball games, swimming holes, playgrounds,someone’s party, rec rooms. The mall didn’t represent sociability or the last era of it, it was the beginning of the decline in sociability and a retreat from the truly open and public to the cloistered and commercialized. I hated them as a teenager in the 80’s. I wanted to be out doing stuff. Huckleberry Finn would have died there.

    Seriously, until then, kids created their space a lot of the time- secret forts and hangouts by the river and whatnot. Children consider the free and open some terra incognita now. All that 80’s satanic panic in the woods media hype- just another excuse for parents to hovercraft and for children to retreat back into the screen. I could see it coming even then and knew it was screwy.

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    Anti-loitering laws have made it much more difficult for young people to hang out outside. Other than skate parks, you don't really see young people out in public places.

    House parties are much more difficult organize these days because of anti-noise ordinances and stricter policing.
  50. @JohnnyWalker123
    Lots of people (especially teenagers) used to hang out at the mall, as a form of social activity. Now that smart phones are so popular and people are so socially reclusive, malls really aren't focal points for socialization anymore.

    People may occasionally go to the mall to browse, but hanging out at the mall regularly isn't really so common these days. Back in the 80s, people used to swarm the malls. You'd see hordes of teens everywhere, just shooting the breeze and having fun. The difference between then and now is like night and day. It's interesting how anti-social so many people are these days, especially younger people.

    If strip malls are less affected, it's probably because strip malls never were that dependent on people looking to hang out with their friends. So this trend towards social hibernation is less important for them. However, strip malls are still affected by declining consumer purchasing power, as well as competition from online retailers.

    I wonder if the death of malls is related to the large number of foot paces required to get to a destination within the mall. At a strip mall one can park 20 or 30 paces from the desired store. The traditional mall may require hundreds of paces. Where I live there are quite a few very successful strip malls. There are some dying large shopping malls.

    • Replies: @Arclight
    Operating costs per square foot are a lot higher for indoor shopping malls than strip malls. Think of what the utilities, maintenance, cleaning and administrative costs are for a space with that volume versus what amount to a series of apartments for retail businesses. The universe of retailers that can afford to pay the rent to cover all that and the maintenance charges of these massive spaces is much more limited and a lot of them are getting killed by e-commerce. Once a shopping mall gets sort of down-market in an effort to stay open, it attracts a lot of people who go to socialize/get in trouble and who don't buy much.

    Some of these malls will try to stagger on by being repurposed, but in the end I think over the next 20-30 years half of them are going to be razed and totally redeveloped.
  51. @Patricus
    I wonder if the death of malls is related to the large number of foot paces required to get to a destination within the mall. At a strip mall one can park 20 or 30 paces from the desired store. The traditional mall may require hundreds of paces. Where I live there are quite a few very successful strip malls. There are some dying large shopping malls.

    Operating costs per square foot are a lot higher for indoor shopping malls than strip malls. Think of what the utilities, maintenance, cleaning and administrative costs are for a space with that volume versus what amount to a series of apartments for retail businesses. The universe of retailers that can afford to pay the rent to cover all that and the maintenance charges of these massive spaces is much more limited and a lot of them are getting killed by e-commerce. Once a shopping mall gets sort of down-market in an effort to stay open, it attracts a lot of people who go to socialize/get in trouble and who don’t buy much.

    Some of these malls will try to stagger on by being repurposed, but in the end I think over the next 20-30 years half of them are going to be razed and totally redeveloped.

  52. @Diversity Heretic
    Catholic? With this pope and Catholic Charities being a major conduit for race-replacing immigration? Sorry, I'll pass. Maybe the Catholic churches that follow the teachings of French Archbishop Marcel Lefebvre are worth trying but how many congregations are there?

    I have attended a couple of Orthodox services but they are strange to someone raised in an austere Presbyterian church.

    Maybe the Catholic churches that follow the teachings of French Archbishop Marcel Lefebvre are worth trying but how many congregations are there?

    I don’t think Abp. Lefebvre had any distinctive teachings exactly (?), but you can find a list of SSPX locations here if you want: https://sspx.org/en/mass-locator

    The Catholic churches you will find most conformant to your ex-Presbyterian aesthetic (probably not the SSPX or FSSP) are generally the most liberal, so that might be a problem from your point of view.

  53. Stores come and stores go. Remember PanAm airline, featured in 2001, A Space Odyssey. Remember Sears, Roebuck. The fact is that the closing of any store, factory or any other employing entity causes grief for the people who worked there. Just as old employers go out of business, new ones pop up.

    Sooner or later, everybody has to move on. It’s the source of much sadness and disruption, but it’s the way of the world. The problem is that America workers cannot compete with low wage employees in other countries.

  54. @Michelle Malkin
    Mall Pall.

    Strip Sunset is more American.

    Bricks and mortal?

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
  55. Post-White Structural Race Realism?

    How about Post Consumption Waste Products?

    Or, The Great Mall Fall?

    I like Retail Apocalypse myself.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
  56. From service sector to service spectre.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
  57. @Mr. Rational
    "Dead malls" has been a thing for quite a while.  The curse of "cibil rites" for thuggish "yoots" has killed malls engulfed by "diversity", which had their customer base driven away by implicit or explicit threat and store profitability killed by said cut in business plus thug shoplifting (that they are unable to prevent by banning said "yoots" from entry).

    I've seen more than a few dead malls just in the metro area where I grew up.  Temperate, pleasant indoor spaces or "diversity":  pick ONE.

    There is a famous one near where I live that has been closed for 20 years.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawthorne_Plaza_Shopping_Center
    The city used to be almost all White, middle and working class. Most of The Beach Boys attended one of the high schools. At the time the mall was built the decline had already started and the mall didn’t stay open long.
    I remember shortly after it opened there was a crime report about armed robbery in the parking structure. (Mall parking structures are notoriously happy hunting grounds for criminals.) The police got a report of a shopper having been robbed at gunpoint in the parking structure. They responded in time to arrest the perpetrator carrying out his sixth consecutive holdup. It was amazing; the guy was still there, simply strolling around the structure, holding people up as if he had a license for it and hadn’t bagged his legal limit yet.
    The city has had a comeback thanks to SpaceX having its headquarters there in the former Northrop plant, but last I heard the city was still looking for a developer for the mall site willing to cough up the major money needed to demolish something this big.

  58. anon[273] • Disclaimer says:

    A big box store like a former Penny’s or Sears in a shopping mall makes a dandy laser tag arena, at least for a few years. Sweat equity with the plywood walls / halls / ramps plus some lighting and lasertag gear does the job. Charge about the same as for a first run movie.

    • Replies: @PhilK
    a former Penny’s or Sears in a shopping mall makes a dandy laser tag arena

    In a town not far from here, somebody did this with an unused store -- not in a mall, but right down on Main Street, and they were even able to use some of the old signage. The old letters read "PARKS BELK" -- the new letters read "PAINT BALL". Unfortunately, it wasn't a success, and the building is vacant again.
  59. @Oo-ee-oo-ah-ah-ting-tang-walla-walla-bing-bang
    “Korea” ABSOLUTELY did not “move on”. SOUTH Korea may have, sure, but that’s ~50%. Korea, to mean the Korean Peninsula, is aggregated to 3rd world.
    And I’m not sure how much you know about the Yugo example. Croatia and Slovenia have moved on, and almost everywhere else is subjectively worse off. Places like Kosovo and Macedonia are objectively worse off, often even at face value w/o counting for price adjustment due to inflation

    And Germany, at least in a psychological sense, certainly hasn’t moved on. They have a very deep psychosis about the war.

  60. @Daniel H
    I think this is much too pessimistic.

    Come to Las Vegas, you may change your opinion.

    lolling at the response to somebody saying “i face existential dread from the inescapable meaninglessness of labor forced upon me by a corrupt system” being “ack-shully, those jobs are just fine and delivery food is delicious”

    • LOL: Twinkie
  61. If quinine and zinc work as preventatives against this virus, America will bounce back faster than expected.

    In the next few months we may find effective treatments and prophylactics to reduce the risk of contracting CV. So it is too early to try and predict the future during the worst week of the pandemic.

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    The fate of the open retail spaces isn't contingent upon how the coronavirus pandemic plays out. This was going to happen--had already started happening--but the economic distortions the shutdown have already caused are going to greatly accelerate it.
  62. @Auntie Analogue
    Mass furlough and layoff of service sector employes without any impact on the Ruling Cla$$ exposes the lie the Ruling Cla$$ told us from the 1970's on, the lie that service sector work- the so-called "service sector economy" - was a suitable, even preferable replacement for the solid jobs lost due to the Ruling Cla$$ profiting enormously from its outsourcing of American industries, jobs, and careers to foreign powers.

    I expect, Audacious Epigone, that you're right about millions of service sector jobs not returning and about the consequential permanent loss of service sector employment to scores of millions of Americans. The only benefit to come to Americans from that might be - and that's a big "might" - that illegal aliens and maybe even foreigner legal residents may also find their services no longer employable, so that they might return to their own countries. The potential for an exodus of foreigners may also come as a result of their being ineligible for those great big (woo-hoo!) $1,200 bailout checks.

    Auntie, Much as I would like to believe that there will be a significant re-patriation of the immigrants (illegal and not) in the US, I just don’t think it is likely. As bad as things get in the US (and I have a feeling they will really suck for a whole lot of people) it is still far preferable to things in rural Mexico/Central America or (coming soon!) Africa. You can bet there will be a lot of available shipping that will be hired to bring Africans to the US. Give them a few more months.

    Our political representatives are ALL (both parties, local, state, and Federal, without significant exception) open borders progs, so we won’t get any help from them either. We are going to see construction sites and landscape crews, as well as what hotel.restaurant services returns, staffed almost exclusively by Hispanic illegals, with black and white citizens on the dole.

    I sure hope I am wrong.

  63. @Audacious Epigone
    I don't disagree with the thrust of your point regarding American retail space, but that doesn't change the reality of the pain that is coming.

    Stop moving the goal posts. I've never said we were "on the brink of hyperinflation". My prediction is we are going to see a sharp increase in consumer prices, my guess is pushing double-digit year-over-year. Food increased 0.3% in March even with restaurants closed. That annualizes to almost 4%. Energy and travel were way down, of course, so the total CPI declined, but there are effectively shortages in energy and travel at the moment, and shortages are the only way to avoid price inflation when there is a supply crunch.

    Don't butter up the terror bird just yet. Keep it in the cage and feed it well if you want, but I'm not stuffing it down yet!

    I just got back from a grocery run.  An item that was $8.99 a few weeks ago is now $10.49.  This is a staggering rate of inflation.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
  64. Why would there be a permanent decline in restaurants? Are people going to permanently prefer cooking at home? If its replaced by delivery from restaurants, that creates more jobs.

    Economic wealth comes from production, not from spending or trade. Focus on that. If malls are shuttered and the alternative is no consumption of their products, that is a decline in economic wealth. If all the products are still bought, just delivered directly to one’s door, society is just as wealthy as before.

    • Replies: @Thomm

    If all the products are still bought, just delivered directly to one’s door, society is just as wealthy as before.
     
    Correction, society is MORE wealthy than before, since there was greater productivity generated through the ecommerce transaction than the brick and mortar one. All the frozen capital in the vast land wastage of the derelict strip mall must be unlocked and repurposed.
    , @Audacious Epigone
    The entire retail space has been financed by debt, ie by input for production that wasn't being paid for. That has allowed everything to be cheaper than it 'should' be. The credit system underwriting it is in the process of collapsing, and the real costs of producing the restaurant experience are going to start being felt. It's going to take a lot more dollars to get the same thing you could get last year.
  65. The desolation …

    Yes, sad times — it’s a good thing the government is here to help.

    Oh wait, they’re the ones largely responsible for the “desolation”.

    Never mind.

  66. @Daniel H
    Here in East Tennessee, quite a few formerly-empty medium-sized malls are now occupied by churches.

    And that's a good thing? Sorry, don't want to offend, but Protestantism was a turn into a dead end for human civic/social development. These holly-roller Protestant sects pretty much deliver the message that your lesser status in life is just God's will and you just must endure it. American ex-urban Protestantism trains the mind and souls of it's votaries to be the house ni**ers of the plutocracy. If you are going to take up the Christian faith, go Orthodox (Catholic/Eastern no matter) or don't do it at all. Christianity needs no reform, never did, but American social and economic relations sure do.

    And that’s a good thing?

    I’m pretty sure the property owners think it’s a good thing. My point wasn’t about religion, but about real estate usage.

    But anyways, thanks for your suggestion that I adopt Catholicism or Orthodoxy. In turn, I’d like to recommend that you check out Swedenborgianism.

  67. @anon
    A big box store like a former Penny's or Sears in a shopping mall makes a dandy laser tag arena, at least for a few years. Sweat equity with the plywood walls / halls / ramps plus some lighting and lasertag gear does the job. Charge about the same as for a first run movie.

    a former Penny’s or Sears in a shopping mall makes a dandy laser tag arena

    In a town not far from here, somebody did this with an unused store — not in a mall, but right down on Main Street, and they were even able to use some of the old signage. The old letters read “PARKS BELK” — the new letters read “PAINT BALL”. Unfortunately, it wasn’t a success, and the building is vacant again.

  68. @Alexander Turok
    Why would there be a permanent decline in restaurants? Are people going to permanently prefer cooking at home? If its replaced by delivery from restaurants, that creates more jobs.

    Economic wealth comes from production, not from spending or trade. Focus on that. If malls are shuttered and the alternative is no consumption of their products, that is a decline in economic wealth. If all the products are still bought, just delivered directly to one's door, society is just as wealthy as before.

    If all the products are still bought, just delivered directly to one’s door, society is just as wealthy as before.

    Correction, society is MORE wealthy than before, since there was greater productivity generated through the ecommerce transaction than the brick and mortar one. All the frozen capital in the vast land wastage of the derelict strip mall must be unlocked and repurposed.

  69. i have the Simon Property group, one of the largest mall operators, as down 62% over the last year.

    stock went from 184 this time last year all the way down to 44 last week, with a small bounce up to 65 presently.

    by my calculations that makes them about the number 4 to 6 worst hit stock in the entire country (barring small irrelevant companies). that is to say, only a few other companies in America took a bigger hit than this big mall operator. and those were all oil and gas companies, or airlines.

    Simon took a bigger hit than Boeing, without making any huge, company destroying mistakes like Boeing was. that about says it all for the future of big indoor malls.

  70. @E. Harding

    Drug abuse, listlessness, alcoholism, depression, suicide–the drivers of deaths of despair–are going to get worse.
     
    No they won't. They'll peak in the West in a couple years and decline. "Deaths of despair" was a passing fad driven by greater drug supply. It actually started in the late 1990s, which should tell you something.

    Work opportunities in suburbs everywhere have gone away and many are never coming back.
     
    Unemployment was at record lows a month and a half ago. It can come back to that level in a couple years.

    Many of the 17 million and growing Americans out a job aren’t returning to work anytime soon, if ever.
     
    That's a rather pessimistic view both of the recuperative abilities of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's competence.

    I’ve never said we were “on the brink of hyperinflation”. My prediction is we are going to see a sharp increase in consumer prices, my guess is pushing double-digit year-over-year.
     
    Would be a very good thing if true. It would indicate the Fed isn't completely full of idiots.

    The unemployment rate was low, but the labor participation rate was middling. It just got a loss worse and I don’t think it’s coming back to 63%:

  71. @Auntie Analogue
    Mass furlough and layoff of service sector employes without any impact on the Ruling Cla$$ exposes the lie the Ruling Cla$$ told us from the 1970's on, the lie that service sector work- the so-called "service sector economy" - was a suitable, even preferable replacement for the solid jobs lost due to the Ruling Cla$$ profiting enormously from its outsourcing of American industries, jobs, and careers to foreign powers.

    I expect, Audacious Epigone, that you're right about millions of service sector jobs not returning and about the consequential permanent loss of service sector employment to scores of millions of Americans. The only benefit to come to Americans from that might be - and that's a big "might" - that illegal aliens and maybe even foreigner legal residents may also find their services no longer employable, so that they might return to their own countries. The potential for an exodus of foreigners may also come as a result of their being ineligible for those great big (woo-hoo!) $1,200 bailout checks.

    Yeah, the place–our home–might take such a drubbing that no one has a reason to come here anymore!

  72. @Daniel H
    The economy will eventually recover as long as there is demand for something. Most of the jobs that have been lost can’t simply be outsourced as manufacturing has been.

    Yeah, some/most of those jobs may/will comeback, but most restaurant, small time service jobs, the type at strip malls, are shitty jobs anyway, and it won't come as some great relief if a large number do return, just business going back to the shitty normal. And I don't mean to disparage by calling them shitty jobs. I have done plenty of these jobs and am doing one right now, doing so because I'm desperate and broke, but hope springs and my anticipation is to move into a job more agreeable, but, that said, America seems to be overweighted with shitty jobs now, and the truth is for many of those doing these jobs there will be no progression up and out, but with this thing even those shitty jobs are valuable (again, I know, because I'm doing one) and it really sucks that many of these jobs have been cratered, because you don't know 21st century American fear until you are a week away from homelessness. I live in a city where to become homeless is to walk to death's door. Homelessness is scary.

    Again, though, before this thing the plutocracy was unperturbed about creating an America where so many adult American men and women languish in these shitty jobs, decade after decade, with little hope into shifting into something, anything more fulfilling. The 1% and their 10% hatchet men really hate you. They really do. I understand now the incendiary class hatred that endured in Russia 1918. I can really understand it. I wonder if 90% of America will come to this hatred? Well, 90% won't, because 17% of Americans work for the government, and government workers will ALWAYS back the state status quo, but 90-17= 73 and that is a very large number. 73% of American imbued with a zealous hatred of the top 10? We can dream.

    As nodwink has noted, living wages for low-skilled but competent work is the compromise. Failing to make it is asking for unrest.

    • Agree: Alden
  73. @dfordoom

    Strip clubs and massage parlors will lose customers and shut down.

     

    Strip clubs might survive, as long as they preserve social distancing. Always stay six feet away from the strippers!

    Massage parlours and brothels may be in trouble. Maybe Trump will have to bail out the prostitution industry. Hook-up culture may take a major hit as well.

    People might be afraid to have casual sex but they'll still be interested in watching sex. The porn industry will boom. There could be an incel pandemic.

    More people will engage in long term exclusive relationships.
     
    Logically they should. But there are reasons why long-term relationships have declined, and why men in particular are reluctant to engage in them. Maybe people will avoid casual hook-ups but have more short-term relationships. Will marriage make a comeback? That depends on how much economic insecurity there is. It also depends on whether the fallout from the virus hysteria enables employers to reduce permanent workforces and replace them with more casual staff. That will make marriage less attractive.

    It's possible birth rates will increase. Personally I suspect they'll plummet but it's hard to predict.

    Religious belief may increase.
     
    Possibly, but I doubt that mainstream Christian churches will benefit. It's possible that it will be fringe religions that will attract more people. Again, very hard to predict.

    UBI, some form of which I think is coming, may actually be a boon for marriage (or at least cohabitation). Two subsistence ‘incomes’ under one roof are better than one.

  74. UBI, some form of which I think is coming, may actually be a boon for marriage (or at least cohabitation). Two subsistence ‘incomes’ under one roof are better than one.

    Yes, there’s some truth in that.

    I suspect a UBI is coming as well. Of course it depends on how miserly it is (and the Republicans will do everything they can it set it at starvation level). If it’s really miserly it won’t improve things much. You’ll still have an underclass living lives of desperation and squalor.

    It needs to be set at a level that would allow people to live decent lives. It needs to be set at a level that would offer people hope. If you do that you might have people not just getting married but even raising families.

    And there’s no point in people complaining that it’s bad for people not to work. Within the next ten years virtually all retail jobs will disappear. That was going to happen anyway. COVID-19 will merely accelerate the process. The few manufacturing jobs left will decline as factories become more and more automated. I don’t see any way you can have a future in which everybody has a job. I don’t think service industries can provide the number of jobs that would be required.

    People will find to find other ways to give their lives meaning, other than having a job. That might be a very good thing or a very bad thing. We have to hope that we can make it work.

    • Replies: @iffen
    (and the Republicans will do everything they can it set it at starvation level)

    It should be at starvation level and severely restricted.
    , @Audacious Epigone
    If the GOP was electorally savvy, it'd go the Charles Murray route--push for rolling all the current welfare programs into a UBI. No special treatment, no deadweight loss through bureaucracy, no restrictions on the benefits--free money for every citizen.
    , @TheJester
    I saw a recent reference regarding the Feds distributing stimulus money during the 2008/2009 economic downturn. Then, I scratched my head wondering why I didn't remember anything about it. Then, I saw another reference that the $250 dole had been sent to people on Social Security, Supplemental Security Income (SSI), Railroad Retirement Board (RRB), and disabled veterans ... absolutely ineffective for stimulating the economy or affecting people's lives. No wonder I had to have my memory jogged.

    Although an adamant conservative, I'm all for a UBI in spite of the fact that I know people who will spend their UBIs sitting on the front porch smoking marijuana. As a minimum, a UBI will force us to close our borders and enforce rational immigration policies.

    However, it will be interesting to see how the USG can structure a meaningful UBI in amounts more than the cost of eating out four times a month. The challenge: How can a bankrupt country afford a meaningful UBI costing trillions of dollars ... layered on top of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the largest military budget in the world?

    Print more money? Have the Treasury continue to issue seemingly endless reams of government bonds that the Federal Reserve buys and puts on "account" to camouflage the fact the Federal Reserve is running the printing presses on overtime. (This is euphemistically called monetizing debt.) Oops, there are no printing presses. All it takes is a finger hitting a computer key. How easy can this get?

    A meaningful UBI? I suspect something has to give to avoid the United States becoming a new "Argentina" ... lest we forget that Argentina was a wealthy country at the beginning of the 20th Century until cycles of inflation destroyed its economy.

    The bad news might be that the United States can no more afford a meaningful UBI than Mexico or Argentina. I fear we are doomed to continue doing what we are doing (recognizing that it doesn't work) in the hope that something will change. You know the aphorism for insanity.
  75. @anon
    The desolation of the country’s brick-and-mortar retail spaces, including bars, restaurants, botique shops,

    Very emotional statement. Think for a while.
    Physical retail space in large air conditioned malls with huge overhead is in decline, but brick and mortar retail not so much. All the grocers that I shop in are in strip malls, for example.

    Bars? Restaurants? Botique shops? Those change hands but they rarely just vanish.

    Think in terms of function rather than emotional reminiscence. The indoor shopping mall traditionally has been anchored by 2 or 3 big stores. Sears, Penny's, WalMart, etc. A mix of mid range, some low end, and some high end stores. Really big malls are still working on that model, but midrange are finding that the Gen X doesn't really care if Lady Kenmore is in town or not. They buy appliances at Best Buy, Home Depot, Lowe's or even online.

    In the small to medium mall, high end is gone. Mid range and lower range is still there. Online is beating them. "The Mall" as an experience of 1980's - 2000 is pretty much gone. oh, well.

    No, you won't get to hang at the mall with your buds checking out girls in the food court, before hitting up the game store and looking at CD's in the music shop but so what? Is there no other way to socialize? Maybe the current "coffee shop" trend is part of that? Nobody sells CD's much anymore anyway.

    Not too many years ago a lot of flyover towns did not have a "coffee shop", until Starbucks showed up. Now it's a thing, so every campus area has multiple ones. Guess what, they are social centers for people under 30 and there's no real reason teenagers can't go there as well.

    Malls are maintenance intensive. Stripmalls are not. Stand alone commercial RE is not as expensive. Online is much cheaper.

    Things change. Why do we need a name for "excess commercial RE"? It's not that important.

    Why do we need a name for “excess commercial RE”? It’s not that important.

    Because it’s going to have similar economic consequences to what has happened to the rust belt over the last thirty years. Manufacturing automobiles in America isn’t economically efficient, either. Why do we need a name for excess former manufacturing capacity?

    • Replies: @anon
    Because it’s going to have similar economic consequences to what has happened to the rust belt over the last thirty years.

    C'mon, be serious. Retail is retail, not manufacturing. An indoor shopping mall is a big barn full of retail spaces. Most of the jobs are minimum wage for a reason - minimal knowledge / skill is required, just as in any strip mall or convenience store. Ditto the management. Property management is a little more complex than a strip mall, maybe on a par with a block of apartments.

    Retail sales in a mall is entry level, unskilled labor. It is not critical, because any normal human can be trained to do it in less than a day. Commercial real estate is very easy to repurpose. I know contractors who do it as their main gig. Converting a restaurant space to a dental office isn't all that difficult, really. Just one example.

    One trend in the southwest is a pseudo-village; a cluster of semi-detached buildings with retail spaces inside. Park on the periphery as with a traditional mall, walk through the "village streets" like a Disney park, stop at stores. Some are outlet malls. The overhead has to be lower than with the fully enclosed mall, and the customer experience is different. They seem to be doing ok in terms of vacancies. One could demo a 1980's mall and replace it with one of these in less than a year, probably in 6 months.

    Every auto factory in the US comes with a complex set of skills, often a building full of engineers, and a lot of supporting sub manufacturers. Line workers don't get trained in a day, neither do the logistics people.

    Manufacturing automobiles in America isn’t economically efficient, either.

    Sez who? The auto manufacturers disagree, and they might know more about their business than you do, ya think?

    Try this search term "automobile assembly plants in the us"

    I'll save you time, here are some results:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automotive_assembly_plants_in_the_United_States
    https://infogalactic.com/info/List_of_automotive_assembly_plants_in_the_United_States

    There's a lot of overlap, but not 100%. Interesting. Notice how widely dispersed the plants are? It's almost as though there's more than a couple of auto plants in the US. Don't tell CNN, they'd be disappointed and have teh sadz.

    Why do we need a name for excess former manufacturing capacity?

    We don't. That's just a riff the MSM runs during elections to beat up on the R's. Don't fall for it.

    Retail is just a middleman. Manufacturing, mining, agriculture: these all take raw materials and convert them to something else. They matter more than retail.

    Stop letting the MSM inject black pills into your brain!
    , @iffen
    Americana is Dying!

    Nail Salons, Wig & Hair Weave Shops & Payday Loan Services Hardest Hit!
    , @James Speaks
    Empty glass.

    That’s what a vacant storefront looks like.

    Neo-cocooning causes empty glass.

  76. @Pat Kittle
    Aren't we forgetting something?

    The (((White genocide agenda))) isn't going away regardless of economic vagaries.

    How we deal with it will largely determine our future.

    We’re forgetting how to make these discussion threads places influencers like Mrs. Malkin (yes, the term suggestion above is from the real deal herself) will frequent with loony comments like these.

    Outmarriage rates among non-Orthodox Jews approach 50%. Non-Orthodox Jews have fewer children than even white gentiles do. Whatever they’re allegedly doing to white gentiles, they’re doing even more so to themselves, I guess.

    • Disagree: neutral
    • Replies: @Pat Kittle
    If you think the (((White genocide agenda))) is a "loony" figment of my imagination, you must have a real problem with far more than me at the Unz Report.

    Do you think Michelle Malkin hasn't already familiarized herself with what to expect here?

    She knows Ron Unz is serious about free speech. She knows, for example, we are free to rigorously debate the "Holocaust" here. She's smart & intellectually curious, which means she likely realizes the official version of 9-11 is absurd. Do you think she doesn't know about Lucky Larry Silverstein, the Dancing Israelis, the blatantly obvious controlled demolition of WTC-7, and on & on?

    If she, like you, chooses not to "go there" that's understandable. But many here do. Here we are free to expose Jewish supremacism in all its manifestations -- and we are equally free to provide evidence to the contrary.

    Isn't that as it should be?

    You certainly do know how to cherry pick your stats:

    Outmarriage rates among non-Orthodox Jews approach 50%. Non-Orthodox Jews have fewer children than even white gentiles do. Whatever they’re allegedly doing to white gentiles, they’re doing even more so to themselves, I guess.
     
    Why do you exclude outmarriage rates among Orthodox Jews?

    Let's guess -- because Orthodox Jews are rapidly breeding themselves into majority status among Jews, and they increasingly call the shots. And Orthodox Jews are strictly forbidden to marry the goyem. It says so right there in their holy book (the Talmud). Correct me if I'm mistaken -- "outmarriage" is actually ILLEGAL in Israel.

    BTW -- Ultra-Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn continue to congregate in groups of hundreds for social & religious functions & they are NOT "distancing" -- and the police don't dare bust them -- and (((the media))) refuse to connect their blatant law-breaking to New York's dire coronavirus outbreak.

    Let me conclude by thanking you, Audacious Epigone, for your contributions at the Unz Report, and for making me look up the definition of "epigone."
    , @neutral
    The secular international jew is ultimately produced from the Orthodox jew, give or take a few generations and you will have plenty lapsed types produced. This myth of the jews being in the same boat as the dwindling whites is a narrative that jews have created for places like this site, to try make it is look silly that jews are not interested in replacing the white race.
  77. @Tulip
    Sorry PPI, trying to correct but timed out. Don't see how PPI goes down 15% without an impact on CPI downward.

    Here is CPI data:

    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm?mod=article_inline



    All items.................. .1 .2 .2 .2 .1 .1 -.4 1.5
    Food...................... .2 .2 .1 .2 .2 .4 .3 1.9
    Food at home............. .1 .2 .1 .0 .1 .5 .5 1.1
    Food away from home (1).. .3 .2 .2 .3 .4 .2 .2 3.0


    CPI is down -.4 percent in March 2020. Total food up .3% in March 2020, which is 1.9% annualized. (Last column is annualized, second to last March 2020, going backwards by month from there.)

    Not seeing a lot of inflationary pressure, but then the stimulus money hasn't hit.

    .3% a month is annualized to 3.6%, not 1.9%. That’s with job losses, before unemployment, before stimulus checks, and before production took a real hit. It’s going up from here, I suspect.

    • Replies: @eah
    .3% a month is annualized to 3.6%, not 1.9%.

    Apparently you've never heard of compound interest: an increase of 0.3%/month every month for a year means a total rise of 4% after one year (i.e. +11% as compared to 3.6).

    , @Tulip
    The annualized rate is computed by BLS by taking monthly changes, because as you can see from the data, there is a certain amount of Brownian motion from month to month.

    As far as the roaring inflation, we shall see. I wish there was some way that I could get betting odds off the libertarian crowd on this website. Its been deflationary all the way since 2008, and any time we do a stimulus, most of it goes to insuring a floor on financial markets to prop up the prices of (over-valued) assets, rather than doing much to stimulate consumption or investment in producing things in the real economy, which would be the first step toward growing a real economy, and might produce inflation if things got overheated.

    But I think you are correct that there will be some inflation in food prices, because I suspect there will be a shortage of migrant agricultural workers this season. On the other hand, a lot of the price of food reflects transportation costs, and with oil in the basement, it might offset all or most of the increased costs of production. Further, I suspect the Chamber of Commerce and the Republican Party will do everything to insure that any fall in the availability of migrant labor is a temporary blip. MAGA 2020!

  78. Ross Perot was right when he said you cannot be a world power through consumption.

    Manufacturing and building things built the West. China just copied it.

    This multicultural mess will collapse of its own stupidity.

    Quite soon. Keep saying Nazis. See if it matters at The End.

    WHAT CANNOT GO ON, WON’T.

    The System is already crumbling. They CANNOT bail themselves out with this MESS,

  79. anon[133] • Disclaimer says:
    @Audacious Epigone
    Why do we need a name for “excess commercial RE”? It’s not that important.

    Because it's going to have similar economic consequences to what has happened to the rust belt over the last thirty years. Manufacturing automobiles in America isn't economically efficient, either. Why do we need a name for excess former manufacturing capacity?

    Because it’s going to have similar economic consequences to what has happened to the rust belt over the last thirty years.

    C’mon, be serious. Retail is retail, not manufacturing. An indoor shopping mall is a big barn full of retail spaces. Most of the jobs are minimum wage for a reason – minimal knowledge / skill is required, just as in any strip mall or convenience store. Ditto the management. Property management is a little more complex than a strip mall, maybe on a par with a block of apartments.

    Retail sales in a mall is entry level, unskilled labor. It is not critical, because any normal human can be trained to do it in less than a day. Commercial real estate is very easy to repurpose. I know contractors who do it as their main gig. Converting a restaurant space to a dental office isn’t all that difficult, really. Just one example.

    One trend in the southwest is a pseudo-village; a cluster of semi-detached buildings with retail spaces inside. Park on the periphery as with a traditional mall, walk through the “village streets” like a Disney park, stop at stores. Some are outlet malls. The overhead has to be lower than with the fully enclosed mall, and the customer experience is different. They seem to be doing ok in terms of vacancies. One could demo a 1980’s mall and replace it with one of these in less than a year, probably in 6 months.

    Every auto factory in the US comes with a complex set of skills, often a building full of engineers, and a lot of supporting sub manufacturers. Line workers don’t get trained in a day, neither do the logistics people.

    Manufacturing automobiles in America isn’t economically efficient, either.

    Sez who? The auto manufacturers disagree, and they might know more about their business than you do, ya think?

    Try this search term “automobile assembly plants in the us”

    I’ll save you time, here are some results:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automotive_assembly_plants_in_the_United_States
    https://infogalactic.com/info/List_of_automotive_assembly_plants_in_the_United_States

    There’s a lot of overlap, but not 100%. Interesting. Notice how widely dispersed the plants are? It’s almost as though there’s more than a couple of auto plants in the US. Don’t tell CNN, they’d be disappointed and have teh sadz.

    Why do we need a name for excess former manufacturing capacity?

    We don’t. That’s just a riff the MSM runs during elections to beat up on the R’s. Don’t fall for it.

    Retail is just a middleman. Manufacturing, mining, agriculture: these all take raw materials and convert them to something else. They matter more than retail.

    Stop letting the MSM inject black pills into your brain!

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    It's the rapidity with which this is happening that concerns me most. The structural changes to the US economy that are going to come from a dethroned dollar and a sounder system of international credit will be good over the long term. But it's going to be a painful decade getting there.
  80. @Audacious Epigone
    .3% a month is annualized to 3.6%, not 1.9%. That's with job losses, before unemployment, before stimulus checks, and before production took a real hit. It's going up from here, I suspect.

    .3% a month is annualized to 3.6%, not 1.9%.

    Apparently you’ve never heard of compound interest: an increase of 0.3%/month every month for a year means a total rise of 4% after one year (i.e. +11% as compared to 3.6).

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Hah, yes, true, as I've noted elsewhere. I was just trying to get the point across as simply as possible.
  81. @Mark G.
    When things get worse economically the country may turn to social conservatism. The country became more socially conservative in the Great Depression than it was in the Roaring Twenties and the Stagflation Seventies ended the Swinging Sixties. Movies may turn away from sex towards romance and escapism as people try to escape for a few hours from the dismal reality of daily life.

    The coronavirus itself will hang around for awhile and the memory of it for even longer. This will help along the new puritanism. People will not want to engage in activities where they come into close physical contact with lots of strangers. Strip clubs and massage parlors will lose customers and shut down. More people will engage in long term exclusive relationships.

    Religious belief may increase. People will become less materialistic as the possibility of achieving riches become out of reach for many of them and they will turn to religion for solace in their difficulties. You could also have a form of Stoicism become popular. Stoicism encourages people not to worry about things outside their control and there will be many more things outside their control in the future.

    “the Stagflation Seventies ended the Swinging Sixties”

    From a UK perspective, that’s nonsense. The Seventies were far more ‘permissive’ than the Sixties and the Eighties more so still. Cutting edge Sixties culture spread through universities in the 70s and went mainstream in the 80s. And it’s not stopped yet.

    • Replies: @Mark G.

    The Seventies were far more ‘permissive’ than the Sixties and the Eighties more so still. Cutting edge Sixties culture spread through universities in the 70s and went mainstream in the 80s.
     
    Good point. David Frum argued in his book "How We Got Here" that the sixties counterculture continued to spread in the seventies and offered a lot of supporting evidence.

    I was thinking more about the culture of the seventies and the nostalgia boom for the more conservative fifties. In movies this started with "American Graffiti" and led to thirty movies placed in the fifties during this decade. You also had movies like "Star Wars" which were like fifties sci-fi movies. On the stage you had the musical "Grease". In music Elton John was singing "Crocodile Rock". The punk rockers weren't considered conservative but Elvis Costello looked like Buddy Holly and the Ramones wore leather jackets like Elvis, James Dean and Marlon Brando. Life Magazine had a 1972 article on the fifties craze on college campuses with college kids going to Sock Hops, dressing like Marilyn Monroe, and buying Hula Hoops.

    This extended into politics. The U.S. elected a socially conservative Democrat, Jimmy Carter. Then they followed him with a socially conservative Republican, Reagan. You might say, though, that underlying all this was a continued infiltration of the sixties counterculture. This is especially the case, as you say, in the universities.
    , @dfordoom


    “the Stagflation Seventies ended the Swinging Sixties”
     
    From a UK perspective, that’s nonsense. The Seventies were far more ‘permissive’ than the Sixties and the Eighties more so still. Cutting edge Sixties culture spread through universities in the 70s and went mainstream in the 80s. And it’s not stopped yet.
     
    I agree. That was certainly the case here in Australia. I suspect it was largely the case in the US as well.

    In the 60s most people still got married, bought a house and raised kids.

    The Roaring Twenties and the Swinging Sixties were almost entirely middle-class urban phenomena. They only affected a very small minority of the population.

    The large-scale spread of "permissiveness" and its associated phenomena (the Sexual Revolution, feminism, Gay Liberation, the collapse of censorship, the beginnings of the major porn explosion) actually coincided almost precisely with the economic crisis of the 70s. As the economy got worse degeneracy increased exponentially.
  82. @Audacious Epigone
    Why do we need a name for “excess commercial RE”? It’s not that important.

    Because it's going to have similar economic consequences to what has happened to the rust belt over the last thirty years. Manufacturing automobiles in America isn't economically efficient, either. Why do we need a name for excess former manufacturing capacity?

    Americana is Dying!

    Nail Salons, Wig & Hair Weave Shops & Payday Loan Services Hardest Hit!

  83. @dfordoom

    UBI, some form of which I think is coming, may actually be a boon for marriage (or at least cohabitation). Two subsistence ‘incomes’ under one roof are better than one.
     
    Yes, there's some truth in that.

    I suspect a UBI is coming as well. Of course it depends on how miserly it is (and the Republicans will do everything they can it set it at starvation level). If it's really miserly it won't improve things much. You'll still have an underclass living lives of desperation and squalor.

    It needs to be set at a level that would allow people to live decent lives. It needs to be set at a level that would offer people hope. If you do that you might have people not just getting married but even raising families.

    And there's no point in people complaining that it's bad for people not to work. Within the next ten years virtually all retail jobs will disappear. That was going to happen anyway. COVID-19 will merely accelerate the process. The few manufacturing jobs left will decline as factories become more and more automated. I don't see any way you can have a future in which everybody has a job. I don't think service industries can provide the number of jobs that would be required.

    People will find to find other ways to give their lives meaning, other than having a job. That might be a very good thing or a very bad thing. We have to hope that we can make it work.

    (and the Republicans will do everything they can it set it at starvation level)

    It should be at starvation level and severely restricted.

    • Replies: @dfordoom


    (and the Republicans will do everything they can it set it at starvation level)
     
    It should be at starvation level and severely restricted.
     
    Because poor people deserve to suffer? Imagine the nightmare of poor people being able to live decent lives.
  84. Has “Mall Morgue” been done yet (I haven’t looked at other comments yet).

    Perhaps “Mall Mausoleum” (or Mall-soleum KEK)…

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Saint Louis
    There's a dead mall near me that we all call the mallsoleum.
  85. @Audacious Epigone
    We're forgetting how to make these discussion threads places influencers like Mrs. Malkin (yes, the term suggestion above is from the real deal herself) will frequent with loony comments like these.

    Outmarriage rates among non-Orthodox Jews approach 50%. Non-Orthodox Jews have fewer children than even white gentiles do. Whatever they're allegedly doing to white gentiles, they're doing even more so to themselves, I guess.

    If you think the (((White genocide agenda))) is a “loony” figment of my imagination, you must have a real problem with far more than me at the Unz Report.

    Do you think Michelle Malkin hasn’t already familiarized herself with what to expect here?

    She knows Ron Unz is serious about free speech. She knows, for example, we are free to rigorously debate the “Holocaust” here. She’s smart & intellectually curious, which means she likely realizes the official version of 9-11 is absurd. Do you think she doesn’t know about Lucky Larry Silverstein, the Dancing Israelis, the blatantly obvious controlled demolition of WTC-7, and on & on?

    If she, like you, chooses not to “go there” that’s understandable. But many here do. Here we are free to expose Jewish supremacism in all its manifestations — and we are equally free to provide evidence to the contrary.

    Isn’t that as it should be?

    You certainly do know how to cherry pick your stats:

    Outmarriage rates among non-Orthodox Jews approach 50%. Non-Orthodox Jews have fewer children than even white gentiles do. Whatever they’re allegedly doing to white gentiles, they’re doing even more so to themselves, I guess.

    Why do you exclude outmarriage rates among Orthodox Jews?

    Let’s guess — because Orthodox Jews are rapidly breeding themselves into majority status among Jews, and they increasingly call the shots. And Orthodox Jews are strictly forbidden to marry the goyem. It says so right there in their holy book (the Talmud). Correct me if I’m mistaken — “outmarriage” is actually ILLEGAL in Israel.

    BTW — Ultra-Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn continue to congregate in groups of hundreds for social & religious functions & they are NOT “distancing” — and the police don’t dare bust them — and (((the media))) refuse to connect their blatant law-breaking to New York’s dire coronavirus outbreak.

    Let me conclude by thanking you, Audacious Epigone, for your contributions at the Unz Report, and for making me look up the definition of “epigone.”

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    It's not the content, it's the context. It's the commentariat equivalent of Cato ending each Senate speech with Carthago delenda est, except in this case there is no speech, just the phrase.
  86. @JohnnyWalker123
    Lots of people (especially teenagers) used to hang out at the mall, as a form of social activity. Now that smart phones are so popular and people are so socially reclusive, malls really aren't focal points for socialization anymore.

    People may occasionally go to the mall to browse, but hanging out at the mall regularly isn't really so common these days. Back in the 80s, people used to swarm the malls. You'd see hordes of teens everywhere, just shooting the breeze and having fun. The difference between then and now is like night and day. It's interesting how anti-social so many people are these days, especially younger people.

    If strip malls are less affected, it's probably because strip malls never were that dependent on people looking to hang out with their friends. So this trend towards social hibernation is less important for them. However, strip malls are still affected by declining consumer purchasing power, as well as competition from online retailers.

    Being a hang out spot for broke, hyperactive teenagers is not a plus for a mall because even your average behaved teenagers are loud, destructive and they annoy the customers who actually have money to spend.
    I’ve seen this in the documentary Complicated by Avril Lavigne.
    Add hobos and gangbangers to the mix and it’s easy to see why indoor malls are following the same trajectory as other public spaces across the US.

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    Non-Black teenagers aren't that bad. They also have a lot of money to spend on food, clothing, and other items. When they can't afford something, they'll often bring in their parents to take a look, which is another source of revenue.

    If you see a disturbance at the mall, Blacks are the perpetrators during the overwhelming majority of the incidents.
    , @Big Dick Bandit
    11 y.0. Big Dick Bandit used to get furious boners over that documentary.

    did you know (((they))) replaced the real Avril Lavigne with a phony clone? it's true, look it up!
    , @Audacious Epigone
    Millennial check!
  87. @Audacious Epigone
    .3% a month is annualized to 3.6%, not 1.9%. That's with job losses, before unemployment, before stimulus checks, and before production took a real hit. It's going up from here, I suspect.

    The annualized rate is computed by BLS by taking monthly changes, because as you can see from the data, there is a certain amount of Brownian motion from month to month.

    As far as the roaring inflation, we shall see. I wish there was some way that I could get betting odds off the libertarian crowd on this website. Its been deflationary all the way since 2008, and any time we do a stimulus, most of it goes to insuring a floor on financial markets to prop up the prices of (over-valued) assets, rather than doing much to stimulate consumption or investment in producing things in the real economy, which would be the first step toward growing a real economy, and might produce inflation if things got overheated.

    But I think you are correct that there will be some inflation in food prices, because I suspect there will be a shortage of migrant agricultural workers this season. On the other hand, a lot of the price of food reflects transportation costs, and with oil in the basement, it might offset all or most of the increased costs of production. Further, I suspect the Chamber of Commerce and the Republican Party will do everything to insure that any fall in the availability of migrant labor is a temporary blip. MAGA 2020!

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    The question is whether or not the asset bubble can be re-inflated without the Fed's ability meaningfully lower interest rates and without breaking the dollar. I don't think it can be.

    As far as betting odds go, gold is a pretty good measure. I bet a fairly prominent member of the twitterati in August of 2019 that in the coming year the GLD ETF would outperform the DJIA. We're still several months out, but it's almost unthinkable that I'm not going to beat him by a huge margin.

    He's free to comment if he feels so inclined!
  88. @dfordoom

    Strip clubs and massage parlors will lose customers and shut down.

     

    Strip clubs might survive, as long as they preserve social distancing. Always stay six feet away from the strippers!

    Massage parlours and brothels may be in trouble. Maybe Trump will have to bail out the prostitution industry. Hook-up culture may take a major hit as well.

    People might be afraid to have casual sex but they'll still be interested in watching sex. The porn industry will boom. There could be an incel pandemic.

    More people will engage in long term exclusive relationships.
     
    Logically they should. But there are reasons why long-term relationships have declined, and why men in particular are reluctant to engage in them. Maybe people will avoid casual hook-ups but have more short-term relationships. Will marriage make a comeback? That depends on how much economic insecurity there is. It also depends on whether the fallout from the virus hysteria enables employers to reduce permanent workforces and replace them with more casual staff. That will make marriage less attractive.

    It's possible birth rates will increase. Personally I suspect they'll plummet but it's hard to predict.

    Religious belief may increase.
     
    Possibly, but I doubt that mainstream Christian churches will benefit. It's possible that it will be fringe religions that will attract more people. Again, very hard to predict.

    Strip clubs might survive, as long as they preserve social distancing. Always stay six feet away from the strippers!

    Palm readers may be in trouble in the near future. Maybe they can read palms while looking through a pair of binoculars.

  89. The flow of monies to the top will and must result in deflation of prices unless the bottom 99% gets more money. UBI is one idea being floated to keep “consumer confidence” up. Otherwise there will be massive bankruptcies and more retail failures.

    Consumption is not an economy. Its the result of massive offshoring of manufacturing and production. The inshoring of cheap labor has crushed the consumer also.

    UBI and bailouts is all the straws they have to grasp at this point. The debts just get passed around as no real profits or progress is being made. The Stock Market is no Blue Chips and all Bull Chips.

    This “System” is made to fail. It cannot exist at a functional level.

    Some form of socialism is now inevitable. Dictatorships usually follow the folly called “democracy”.

    International socialism is being given a bad name by this pandemic.

    National Socialism is the model that can right this sinking ship.

    The Jewish Cabal knows this, and FEARS its rise. You don’t need a Hitler. You just need to End the Federal Reserve, take control of the money supply, strip the Corporate Media of their FCC licenses and put American workers first by ENDING all H-1b and H-2 visas. This “diversity” crap has got to end also.

    The best man for the job should get the job…

  90. @Alden
    RBB, ruined by blacks. First they destroyed the cities then they destroyed suburban malls. What next?

    First they destroyed the cities then they destroyed suburban malls. What next?

    Country Music?

    • Agree: Pat Kittle
  91. @Bragadocious
    Such a ray of sunshine you are.

    I don't see it. People still have to eat. You can't outsource that to China yet. Everything will be open in a month and the places will be packed.

    …uh…No.

  92. @Twinkie
    Just as I don’t think that things are as good as they look in good times, I don’t believe that things are as desperate as they seem in bad times. People in general tend to swing too much to extremes under stress and overshoot reality in their mental constructs.

    In other words, be pessimistic in good times and be optimistic in bad times.


    Drug abuse, listlessness, alcoholism, depression, suicide–the drivers of deaths of despair–are going to get worse. They’re going to metastasize all over the country. Work opportunities in suburbs everywhere have gone away and many are never coming back. Many of the 17 million and growing Americans out a job aren’t returning to work anytime soon, if ever.
     
    I think this is much too pessimistic.

    Germany, Japan, Korea, and for a more recent example, former Yugoslavia were utterly wrecked by war, but people rebuilt and moved on. We are still a country with lots of ingenious and hard working people. We will adapt to changing circumstances and persevere.

    Renewal is possible. And sometimes the worst of times brings out the best in people.

    Admittedly I don’t know much about your religion, Big Twinx, but it is my understanding that even Catholics believe in the end times.

    …Guess what, you’re in it.

  93. @YetAnotherAnon
    "the Stagflation Seventies ended the Swinging Sixties"

    From a UK perspective, that's nonsense. The Seventies were far more 'permissive' than the Sixties and the Eighties more so still. Cutting edge Sixties culture spread through universities in the 70s and went mainstream in the 80s. And it's not stopped yet.

    The Seventies were far more ‘permissive’ than the Sixties and the Eighties more so still. Cutting edge Sixties culture spread through universities in the 70s and went mainstream in the 80s.

    Good point. David Frum argued in his book “How We Got Here” that the sixties counterculture continued to spread in the seventies and offered a lot of supporting evidence.

    I was thinking more about the culture of the seventies and the nostalgia boom for the more conservative fifties. In movies this started with “American Graffiti” and led to thirty movies placed in the fifties during this decade. You also had movies like “Star Wars” which were like fifties sci-fi movies. On the stage you had the musical “Grease”. In music Elton John was singing “Crocodile Rock”. The punk rockers weren’t considered conservative but Elvis Costello looked like Buddy Holly and the Ramones wore leather jackets like Elvis, James Dean and Marlon Brando. Life Magazine had a 1972 article on the fifties craze on college campuses with college kids going to Sock Hops, dressing like Marilyn Monroe, and buying Hula Hoops.

    This extended into politics. The U.S. elected a socially conservative Democrat, Jimmy Carter. Then they followed him with a socially conservative Republican, Reagan. You might say, though, that underlying all this was a continued infiltration of the sixties counterculture. This is especially the case, as you say, in the universities.

  94. @dfordoom

    Strip clubs and massage parlors will lose customers and shut down.

     

    Strip clubs might survive, as long as they preserve social distancing. Always stay six feet away from the strippers!

    Massage parlours and brothels may be in trouble. Maybe Trump will have to bail out the prostitution industry. Hook-up culture may take a major hit as well.

    People might be afraid to have casual sex but they'll still be interested in watching sex. The porn industry will boom. There could be an incel pandemic.

    More people will engage in long term exclusive relationships.
     
    Logically they should. But there are reasons why long-term relationships have declined, and why men in particular are reluctant to engage in them. Maybe people will avoid casual hook-ups but have more short-term relationships. Will marriage make a comeback? That depends on how much economic insecurity there is. It also depends on whether the fallout from the virus hysteria enables employers to reduce permanent workforces and replace them with more casual staff. That will make marriage less attractive.

    It's possible birth rates will increase. Personally I suspect they'll plummet but it's hard to predict.

    Religious belief may increase.
     
    Possibly, but I doubt that mainstream Christian churches will benefit. It's possible that it will be fringe religions that will attract more people. Again, very hard to predict.

    Make it possible for working class white men to have a better future than clerk at Wal-Mart and you will see more marriage! Middle class and Upper Class people still get married and have long term relationships. It’s just not financially possible for lower class men anymore.

    Ban: Tinder, Sugar Daddy websites, and pornhub. Make men and women go out in person and meet each other again.

    Change: Divorce laws, permit financial abortion, and make sure every man signs a prenup.

    Marriage and long term relationships will increase again.

    • Replies: @anon

    Ban: Tinder, Sugar Daddy websites, and pornhub. Make men and women go out in person and meet each other again.


    Change: Divorce laws, permit financial abortion, and make sure every man signs a prenup.

    OK Boomer!

    Should be easy ! How about you start by showing us how its done! Get that going up in Canada as soon as you're able to. Provide regular updates here.

    Be seeing you!
  95. @Kratoklastes
    Has "Mall Morgue" been done yet (I haven't looked at other comments yet).

    Perhaps "Mall Mausoleum" (or Mall-soleum KEK)...

    There’s a dead mall near me that we all call the mallsoleum.

  96. @JohnnyWalker123
    Lots of people (especially teenagers) used to hang out at the mall, as a form of social activity. Now that smart phones are so popular and people are so socially reclusive, malls really aren't focal points for socialization anymore.

    People may occasionally go to the mall to browse, but hanging out at the mall regularly isn't really so common these days. Back in the 80s, people used to swarm the malls. You'd see hordes of teens everywhere, just shooting the breeze and having fun. The difference between then and now is like night and day. It's interesting how anti-social so many people are these days, especially younger people.

    If strip malls are less affected, it's probably because strip malls never were that dependent on people looking to hang out with their friends. So this trend towards social hibernation is less important for them. However, strip malls are still affected by declining consumer purchasing power, as well as competition from online retailers.

    Back in the 80s, people used to swarm the malls. You’d see hordes of teens everywhere, just shooting the breeze and having fun.

    Oh, there are still hordes of teens swarming the malls these days, they’re just all of a certain complexion and they’re busy looting the stores.

  97. @Michelle Malkin
    Mall Pall.

    Well I’ll be a goose fried in chicken fat Audie… You have real C-lebrities as fans!

    • LOL: Truth
    • Troll: Audacious Epigone
  98. anon[101] • Disclaimer says:
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    Make it possible for working class white men to have a better future than clerk at Wal-Mart and you will see more marriage! Middle class and Upper Class people still get married and have long term relationships. It's just not financially possible for lower class men anymore.

    Ban: Tinder, Sugar Daddy websites, and pornhub. Make men and women go out in person and meet each other again.

    Change: Divorce laws, permit financial abortion, and make sure every man signs a prenup.

    Marriage and long term relationships will increase again.


    Ban: Tinder, Sugar Daddy websites, and pornhub. Make men and women go out in person and meet each other again.

    Change: Divorce laws, permit financial abortion, and make sure every man signs a prenup.

    OK Boomer!

    Should be easy ! How about you start by showing us how its done! Get that going up in Canada as soon as you’re able to. Provide regular updates here.

    Be seeing you!

    • Replies: @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    Based on your typing style you're much more of a Boomer than I am.

    Porn needs to be banned immediately. Not only is it Jewish owned, it enables incels and less sexually endowed men to jerk off in their basement all day. White men should be angry, not pacified through porn.

    Tinder needs to be banned because it allowed women to easily and anonymously be sluts. It allows the top 20% of men to fuck at their will. Again, white men should be angry as fuck not pacified through these types of hookups.

    Sugar Baby websites need to be banned because it's creepy and takes many attractive young women out of the dating pool, to the detriment of said younger men, and hooks them up with a rich old creepy dude who could never get laid without his wallet.

    So yeah, based on the combination of incels, hookups, and sugar daddies it's not surprising that the white birth rate keeps tumbling.

  99. @grim prognosis
    People may occasionally go to the mall to browse, but hanging out at the mall regularly isn’t really so common these days. Back in the 80s, people used to swarm the malls. You’d see hordes of teens everywhere, just shooting the breeze and having fun. The difference between then and now is like night and day. It’s interesting how anti-social so many people are these days, especially younger people.

    Before that they would go to ball games, swimming holes, playgrounds,someone's party, rec rooms. The mall didn't represent sociability or the last era of it, it was the beginning of the decline in sociability and a retreat from the truly open and public to the cloistered and commercialized. I hated them as a teenager in the 80's. I wanted to be out doing stuff. Huckleberry Finn would have died there.

    Seriously, until then, kids created their space a lot of the time- secret forts and hangouts by the river and whatnot. Children consider the free and open some terra incognita now. All that 80's satanic panic in the woods media hype- just another excuse for parents to hovercraft and for children to retreat back into the screen. I could see it coming even then and knew it was screwy.

    Anti-loitering laws have made it much more difficult for young people to hang out outside. Other than skate parks, you don’t really see young people out in public places.

    House parties are much more difficult organize these days because of anti-noise ordinances and stricter policing.

  100. @anon

    Ban: Tinder, Sugar Daddy websites, and pornhub. Make men and women go out in person and meet each other again.


    Change: Divorce laws, permit financial abortion, and make sure every man signs a prenup.

    OK Boomer!

    Should be easy ! How about you start by showing us how its done! Get that going up in Canada as soon as you're able to. Provide regular updates here.

    Be seeing you!

    Based on your typing style you’re much more of a Boomer than I am.

    Porn needs to be banned immediately. Not only is it Jewish owned, it enables incels and less sexually endowed men to jerk off in their basement all day. White men should be angry, not pacified through porn.

    Tinder needs to be banned because it allowed women to easily and anonymously be sluts. It allows the top 20% of men to fuck at their will. Again, white men should be angry as fuck not pacified through these types of hookups.

    Sugar Baby websites need to be banned because it’s creepy and takes many attractive young women out of the dating pool, to the detriment of said younger men, and hooks them up with a rich old creepy dude who could never get laid without his wallet.

    So yeah, based on the combination of incels, hookups, and sugar daddies it’s not surprising that the white birth rate keeps tumbling.

    • Agree: Tusk
    • Replies: @anon
    Based on your typing style you’re much more of a Boomer than I am.

    Whatever, Boomer.

    Porn needs to be banned immediately.

    Do it! Lead the way! Contact your local ISP and get Pornhub blacklisted!

    Tinder needs to be banned

    Do it! Start by contacting Google and Apple, get Android and IOS changed so Tinder no longer works on phones!

    Sugar Baby websites need to be banned

    Do it! Same as PornHub!

    lol.

    One more thing: get porny books banned too. There's no 1st Amendment in Canada so it should be easy for you. Start with 50 Shades of Grey.

    Looking for those progress reports, dude! I'm sure you're not just another combox gasbag!

    LOL!

    , @dfordoom

    So yeah, based on the combination of incels, hookups, and sugar daddies it’s not surprising that the white birth rate keeps tumbling.
     
    But the white birth rate has been tumbling for along time. The "Baby Boom" was a temporary aberration. The trend has been downhill for a century.

    I'm not saying incels, hookups, and sugar daddies aren't bad things. Of course they're bad things. But they didn't cause the decline in birth rates.

    Three things caused the decline in birth rates - the contraceptive pill (at the beginning of the 60s), consumerism (the inevitable by-product of capitalism) and urbanisation. These things would be very very difficult to undo. There are no easy solutions.
  101. @SIMP simp
    Being a hang out spot for broke, hyperactive teenagers is not a plus for a mall because even your average behaved teenagers are loud, destructive and they annoy the customers who actually have money to spend.
    I've seen this in the documentary Complicated by Avril Lavigne.
    Add hobos and gangbangers to the mix and it's easy to see why indoor malls are following the same trajectory as other public spaces across the US.

    Non-Black teenagers aren’t that bad. They also have a lot of money to spend on food, clothing, and other items. When they can’t afford something, they’ll often bring in their parents to take a look, which is another source of revenue.

    If you see a disturbance at the mall, Blacks are the perpetrators during the overwhelming majority of the incidents.

  102. @SIMP simp
    Being a hang out spot for broke, hyperactive teenagers is not a plus for a mall because even your average behaved teenagers are loud, destructive and they annoy the customers who actually have money to spend.
    I've seen this in the documentary Complicated by Avril Lavigne.
    Add hobos and gangbangers to the mix and it's easy to see why indoor malls are following the same trajectory as other public spaces across the US.

    11 y.0. Big Dick Bandit used to get furious boners over that documentary.

    did you know (((they))) replaced the real Avril Lavigne with a phony clone? it’s true, look it up!

  103. anon[196] • Disclaimer says:
    @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    Based on your typing style you're much more of a Boomer than I am.

    Porn needs to be banned immediately. Not only is it Jewish owned, it enables incels and less sexually endowed men to jerk off in their basement all day. White men should be angry, not pacified through porn.

    Tinder needs to be banned because it allowed women to easily and anonymously be sluts. It allows the top 20% of men to fuck at their will. Again, white men should be angry as fuck not pacified through these types of hookups.

    Sugar Baby websites need to be banned because it's creepy and takes many attractive young women out of the dating pool, to the detriment of said younger men, and hooks them up with a rich old creepy dude who could never get laid without his wallet.

    So yeah, based on the combination of incels, hookups, and sugar daddies it's not surprising that the white birth rate keeps tumbling.

    Based on your typing style you’re much more of a Boomer than I am.

    Whatever, Boomer.

    Porn needs to be banned immediately.

    Do it! Lead the way! Contact your local ISP and get Pornhub blacklisted!

    Tinder needs to be banned

    Do it! Start by contacting Google and Apple, get Android and IOS changed so Tinder no longer works on phones!

    Sugar Baby websites need to be banned

    Do it! Same as PornHub!

    lol.

    One more thing: get porny books banned too. There’s no 1st Amendment in Canada so it should be easy for you. Start with 50 Shades of Grey.

    Looking for those progress reports, dude! I’m sure you’re not just another combox gasbag!

    LOL!

  104. @Audacious Epigone
    Why do we need a name for “excess commercial RE”? It’s not that important.

    Because it's going to have similar economic consequences to what has happened to the rust belt over the last thirty years. Manufacturing automobiles in America isn't economically efficient, either. Why do we need a name for excess former manufacturing capacity?

    Empty glass.

    That’s what a vacant storefront looks like.

    Neo-cocooning causes empty glass.

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
  105. @Travis
    If quinine and zinc work as preventatives against this virus, America will bounce back faster than expected.

    In the next few months we may find effective treatments and prophylactics to reduce the risk of contracting CV. So it is too early to try and predict the future during the worst week of the pandemic.

    The fate of the open retail spaces isn’t contingent upon how the coronavirus pandemic plays out. This was going to happen–had already started happening–but the economic distortions the shutdown have already caused are going to greatly accelerate it.

  106. @Alexander Turok
    Why would there be a permanent decline in restaurants? Are people going to permanently prefer cooking at home? If its replaced by delivery from restaurants, that creates more jobs.

    Economic wealth comes from production, not from spending or trade. Focus on that. If malls are shuttered and the alternative is no consumption of their products, that is a decline in economic wealth. If all the products are still bought, just delivered directly to one's door, society is just as wealthy as before.

    The entire retail space has been financed by debt, ie by input for production that wasn’t being paid for. That has allowed everything to be cheaper than it ‘should’ be. The credit system underwriting it is in the process of collapsing, and the real costs of producing the restaurant experience are going to start being felt. It’s going to take a lot more dollars to get the same thing you could get last year.

  107. @dfordoom

    UBI, some form of which I think is coming, may actually be a boon for marriage (or at least cohabitation). Two subsistence ‘incomes’ under one roof are better than one.
     
    Yes, there's some truth in that.

    I suspect a UBI is coming as well. Of course it depends on how miserly it is (and the Republicans will do everything they can it set it at starvation level). If it's really miserly it won't improve things much. You'll still have an underclass living lives of desperation and squalor.

    It needs to be set at a level that would allow people to live decent lives. It needs to be set at a level that would offer people hope. If you do that you might have people not just getting married but even raising families.

    And there's no point in people complaining that it's bad for people not to work. Within the next ten years virtually all retail jobs will disappear. That was going to happen anyway. COVID-19 will merely accelerate the process. The few manufacturing jobs left will decline as factories become more and more automated. I don't see any way you can have a future in which everybody has a job. I don't think service industries can provide the number of jobs that would be required.

    People will find to find other ways to give their lives meaning, other than having a job. That might be a very good thing or a very bad thing. We have to hope that we can make it work.

    If the GOP was electorally savvy, it’d go the Charles Murray route–push for rolling all the current welfare programs into a UBI. No special treatment, no deadweight loss through bureaucracy, no restrictions on the benefits–free money for every citizen.

    • Agree: iffen
    • Replies: @dfordoom

    If the GOP was electorally savvy, it’d go the Charles Murray route–push for rolling all the current welfare programs into a UBI. No special treatment, no deadweight loss through bureaucracy, no restrictions on the benefits–free money for every citizen.
     
    I agree totally.

    When you say, "If the GOP was electorally savvy" I presume you mean, "if the GOP weren't whores to their billionaire donors."
  108. @eah
    .3% a month is annualized to 3.6%, not 1.9%.

    Apparently you've never heard of compound interest: an increase of 0.3%/month every month for a year means a total rise of 4% after one year (i.e. +11% as compared to 3.6).

    Hah, yes, true, as I’ve noted elsewhere. I was just trying to get the point across as simply as possible.

  109. @anon
    Because it’s going to have similar economic consequences to what has happened to the rust belt over the last thirty years.

    C'mon, be serious. Retail is retail, not manufacturing. An indoor shopping mall is a big barn full of retail spaces. Most of the jobs are minimum wage for a reason - minimal knowledge / skill is required, just as in any strip mall or convenience store. Ditto the management. Property management is a little more complex than a strip mall, maybe on a par with a block of apartments.

    Retail sales in a mall is entry level, unskilled labor. It is not critical, because any normal human can be trained to do it in less than a day. Commercial real estate is very easy to repurpose. I know contractors who do it as their main gig. Converting a restaurant space to a dental office isn't all that difficult, really. Just one example.

    One trend in the southwest is a pseudo-village; a cluster of semi-detached buildings with retail spaces inside. Park on the periphery as with a traditional mall, walk through the "village streets" like a Disney park, stop at stores. Some are outlet malls. The overhead has to be lower than with the fully enclosed mall, and the customer experience is different. They seem to be doing ok in terms of vacancies. One could demo a 1980's mall and replace it with one of these in less than a year, probably in 6 months.

    Every auto factory in the US comes with a complex set of skills, often a building full of engineers, and a lot of supporting sub manufacturers. Line workers don't get trained in a day, neither do the logistics people.

    Manufacturing automobiles in America isn’t economically efficient, either.

    Sez who? The auto manufacturers disagree, and they might know more about their business than you do, ya think?

    Try this search term "automobile assembly plants in the us"

    I'll save you time, here are some results:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automotive_assembly_plants_in_the_United_States
    https://infogalactic.com/info/List_of_automotive_assembly_plants_in_the_United_States

    There's a lot of overlap, but not 100%. Interesting. Notice how widely dispersed the plants are? It's almost as though there's more than a couple of auto plants in the US. Don't tell CNN, they'd be disappointed and have teh sadz.

    Why do we need a name for excess former manufacturing capacity?

    We don't. That's just a riff the MSM runs during elections to beat up on the R's. Don't fall for it.

    Retail is just a middleman. Manufacturing, mining, agriculture: these all take raw materials and convert them to something else. They matter more than retail.

    Stop letting the MSM inject black pills into your brain!

    It’s the rapidity with which this is happening that concerns me most. The structural changes to the US economy that are going to come from a dethroned dollar and a sounder system of international credit will be good over the long term. But it’s going to be a painful decade getting there.

  110. @Pat Kittle
    If you think the (((White genocide agenda))) is a "loony" figment of my imagination, you must have a real problem with far more than me at the Unz Report.

    Do you think Michelle Malkin hasn't already familiarized herself with what to expect here?

    She knows Ron Unz is serious about free speech. She knows, for example, we are free to rigorously debate the "Holocaust" here. She's smart & intellectually curious, which means she likely realizes the official version of 9-11 is absurd. Do you think she doesn't know about Lucky Larry Silverstein, the Dancing Israelis, the blatantly obvious controlled demolition of WTC-7, and on & on?

    If she, like you, chooses not to "go there" that's understandable. But many here do. Here we are free to expose Jewish supremacism in all its manifestations -- and we are equally free to provide evidence to the contrary.

    Isn't that as it should be?

    You certainly do know how to cherry pick your stats:

    Outmarriage rates among non-Orthodox Jews approach 50%. Non-Orthodox Jews have fewer children than even white gentiles do. Whatever they’re allegedly doing to white gentiles, they’re doing even more so to themselves, I guess.
     
    Why do you exclude outmarriage rates among Orthodox Jews?

    Let's guess -- because Orthodox Jews are rapidly breeding themselves into majority status among Jews, and they increasingly call the shots. And Orthodox Jews are strictly forbidden to marry the goyem. It says so right there in their holy book (the Talmud). Correct me if I'm mistaken -- "outmarriage" is actually ILLEGAL in Israel.

    BTW -- Ultra-Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn continue to congregate in groups of hundreds for social & religious functions & they are NOT "distancing" -- and the police don't dare bust them -- and (((the media))) refuse to connect their blatant law-breaking to New York's dire coronavirus outbreak.

    Let me conclude by thanking you, Audacious Epigone, for your contributions at the Unz Report, and for making me look up the definition of "epigone."

    It’s not the content, it’s the context. It’s the commentariat equivalent of Cato ending each Senate speech with Carthago delenda est, except in this case there is no speech, just the phrase.

    • LOL: Twinkie
  111. @SIMP simp
    Being a hang out spot for broke, hyperactive teenagers is not a plus for a mall because even your average behaved teenagers are loud, destructive and they annoy the customers who actually have money to spend.
    I've seen this in the documentary Complicated by Avril Lavigne.
    Add hobos and gangbangers to the mix and it's easy to see why indoor malls are following the same trajectory as other public spaces across the US.

    Millennial check!

  112. @Tulip
    The annualized rate is computed by BLS by taking monthly changes, because as you can see from the data, there is a certain amount of Brownian motion from month to month.

    As far as the roaring inflation, we shall see. I wish there was some way that I could get betting odds off the libertarian crowd on this website. Its been deflationary all the way since 2008, and any time we do a stimulus, most of it goes to insuring a floor on financial markets to prop up the prices of (over-valued) assets, rather than doing much to stimulate consumption or investment in producing things in the real economy, which would be the first step toward growing a real economy, and might produce inflation if things got overheated.

    But I think you are correct that there will be some inflation in food prices, because I suspect there will be a shortage of migrant agricultural workers this season. On the other hand, a lot of the price of food reflects transportation costs, and with oil in the basement, it might offset all or most of the increased costs of production. Further, I suspect the Chamber of Commerce and the Republican Party will do everything to insure that any fall in the availability of migrant labor is a temporary blip. MAGA 2020!

    The question is whether or not the asset bubble can be re-inflated without the Fed’s ability meaningfully lower interest rates and without breaking the dollar. I don’t think it can be.

    As far as betting odds go, gold is a pretty good measure. I bet a fairly prominent member of the twitterati in August of 2019 that in the coming year the GLD ETF would outperform the DJIA. We’re still several months out, but it’s almost unthinkable that I’m not going to beat him by a huge margin.

    He’s free to comment if he feels so inclined!

    • Replies: @eah
    The question is whether or not the asset bubble can be re-inflated without the Fed’s ability meaningfully lower interest rates and without breaking the dollar.

    The NASDAQ composite (IXIC) closed yesterday at 8,515.74, which is only 13% below its all time closing high of 9,817.18 (Feb 19), and above its 200 DMA (the 50 DMA is still above the 200 DMA) -- one caveat: AMZN is a heavily weighted component of the NASDAQ composite, and it is hitting all time highs because of the government authoritarian stupidity that eliminated a big slice of its competition shut "brick and mortar" stores.

    What is the alternative to the USD?
  113. @YetAnotherAnon
    "the Stagflation Seventies ended the Swinging Sixties"

    From a UK perspective, that's nonsense. The Seventies were far more 'permissive' than the Sixties and the Eighties more so still. Cutting edge Sixties culture spread through universities in the 70s and went mainstream in the 80s. And it's not stopped yet.

    “the Stagflation Seventies ended the Swinging Sixties”

    From a UK perspective, that’s nonsense. The Seventies were far more ‘permissive’ than the Sixties and the Eighties more so still. Cutting edge Sixties culture spread through universities in the 70s and went mainstream in the 80s. And it’s not stopped yet.

    I agree. That was certainly the case here in Australia. I suspect it was largely the case in the US as well.

    In the 60s most people still got married, bought a house and raised kids.

    The Roaring Twenties and the Swinging Sixties were almost entirely middle-class urban phenomena. They only affected a very small minority of the population.

    The large-scale spread of “permissiveness” and its associated phenomena (the Sexual Revolution, feminism, Gay Liberation, the collapse of censorship, the beginnings of the major porn explosion) actually coincided almost precisely with the economic crisis of the 70s. As the economy got worse degeneracy increased exponentially.

    • Replies: @Saint Louis
    You say that as the economy got worse, the culture became more degenerate. But the permissiveness of the '20s didn't extend into the '30s when the economy tanked. To the contrary, hemlines got lower. The Great Depression isn't known as a time of widespread cultural degeneracy.

    I'm not saying you're wrong about the '60s and '70s, just wondering why it turned out so differently the second time around.

    Perhaps the Great Depression was just that much worse than the stagflation of the '70s. Perhaps certain groups had gained more influence in society. Perhaps in the '30s Christianity was still the cultural default. I don't really know. I'm just throwing out ideas.
  114. @iffen
    (and the Republicans will do everything they can it set it at starvation level)

    It should be at starvation level and severely restricted.

    (and the Republicans will do everything they can it set it at starvation level)

    It should be at starvation level and severely restricted.

    Because poor people deserve to suffer? Imagine the nightmare of poor people being able to live decent lives.

    • Replies: @iffen
    Imagine the nightmare of poor people being able to live decent lives.

    Poor people need to work, too. Everybody needs a job. That's everybody as in everybody.

    The last resort could be WPA style community service, but a good economic model would not really require many those.

    Tariffs! Autarky!

  115. @Audacious Epigone
    We're forgetting how to make these discussion threads places influencers like Mrs. Malkin (yes, the term suggestion above is from the real deal herself) will frequent with loony comments like these.

    Outmarriage rates among non-Orthodox Jews approach 50%. Non-Orthodox Jews have fewer children than even white gentiles do. Whatever they're allegedly doing to white gentiles, they're doing even more so to themselves, I guess.

    The secular international jew is ultimately produced from the Orthodox jew, give or take a few generations and you will have plenty lapsed types produced. This myth of the jews being in the same boat as the dwindling whites is a narrative that jews have created for places like this site, to try make it is look silly that jews are not interested in replacing the white race.

    • Thanks: Pat Kittle
    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Will Mormons and the Amish become the secular white gentiles of 2100?

    Younger and Orthodox (overlap here of course because of differential birthrates) Jews are more conservative and more favorable to immigration restrictionism than older and secular Jews are. The inverse relationship between age and right wing political affiliation is unique to Jews.
  116. @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    Based on your typing style you're much more of a Boomer than I am.

    Porn needs to be banned immediately. Not only is it Jewish owned, it enables incels and less sexually endowed men to jerk off in their basement all day. White men should be angry, not pacified through porn.

    Tinder needs to be banned because it allowed women to easily and anonymously be sluts. It allows the top 20% of men to fuck at their will. Again, white men should be angry as fuck not pacified through these types of hookups.

    Sugar Baby websites need to be banned because it's creepy and takes many attractive young women out of the dating pool, to the detriment of said younger men, and hooks them up with a rich old creepy dude who could never get laid without his wallet.

    So yeah, based on the combination of incels, hookups, and sugar daddies it's not surprising that the white birth rate keeps tumbling.

    So yeah, based on the combination of incels, hookups, and sugar daddies it’s not surprising that the white birth rate keeps tumbling.

    But the white birth rate has been tumbling for along time. The “Baby Boom” was a temporary aberration. The trend has been downhill for a century.

    I’m not saying incels, hookups, and sugar daddies aren’t bad things. Of course they’re bad things. But they didn’t cause the decline in birth rates.

    Three things caused the decline in birth rates – the contraceptive pill (at the beginning of the 60s), consumerism (the inevitable by-product of capitalism) and urbanisation. These things would be very very difficult to undo. There are no easy solutions.

  117. @Audacious Epigone
    If the GOP was electorally savvy, it'd go the Charles Murray route--push for rolling all the current welfare programs into a UBI. No special treatment, no deadweight loss through bureaucracy, no restrictions on the benefits--free money for every citizen.

    If the GOP was electorally savvy, it’d go the Charles Murray route–push for rolling all the current welfare programs into a UBI. No special treatment, no deadweight loss through bureaucracy, no restrictions on the benefits–free money for every citizen.

    I agree totally.

    When you say, “If the GOP was electorally savvy” I presume you mean, “if the GOP weren’t whores to their billionaire donors.”

  118. @Daniel H
    Here in East Tennessee, quite a few formerly-empty medium-sized malls are now occupied by churches.

    And that's a good thing? Sorry, don't want to offend, but Protestantism was a turn into a dead end for human civic/social development. These holly-roller Protestant sects pretty much deliver the message that your lesser status in life is just God's will and you just must endure it. American ex-urban Protestantism trains the mind and souls of it's votaries to be the house ni**ers of the plutocracy. If you are going to take up the Christian faith, go Orthodox (Catholic/Eastern no matter) or don't do it at all. Christianity needs no reform, never did, but American social and economic relations sure do.

    What a bigoted comment. Churches offer many non religious wonderful things such as children and teen activities, clubs for men and women, fiestas, seasonal celebrations. Church is a great way to meet nice respectable people and friends for your kids.

    Those southern Protestant churches also do a lot of support and help for members who need help. Such as taking care of kids when single parent is in hospital, visiting and helping with housework, for shut in old and disabled, arranging funerals, a room of donated clothes for those who need them, job referrals, housing referrals. It may not be Catholic Charities billion dollar budget, but those small congregations do a lot of good.
    The church clubs also are ready to chip in helping with natural disasters.

  119. @Twinkie

    Yeah, some/most of those jobs may/will comeback, but most restaurant, small time service jobs, the type at strip malls, are shitty jobs anyway
     
    They may be “shitty” to you and me, but they provide valuable entry level work to young people and the undertrained who have trouble gaining a foothold in the workforce.

    I suspect restaurant will reopen and be more amenable to having delivery service than before, which was previously the purview of Asian takeouts and pizza parlors. One thing I really like and miss about South Korea is the ubiquity of delivery service - you can pretty much have delivered almost any kind of food (often very high quality) to just about any location. I always wished more restaurants in the U.S. delivered and that may happen in the future.

    https://youtu.be/3SYQcJpEjIY

    https://youtu.be/ghiPN1hNBao

    Those shitty jobs go nowhere. The only way a young person can advance from a shitty job is to leave it for a decent career job.

    Unless there’s a good union. For instance grocery stores. The big chains are unionized and pay decent wages so the workers can buy homes own cars and have kids. The non union ones are minimum wage except for the stores that employ illegal aliens.

    Restaurant managers are often on monthly salary rather than hourly minimum wage. Sounds good until you divide weekly salary by the 60-70 hours worked a week and realize their hourly wage is less than minimum wage.

    In my state, teen and young Whites are never hired for shitty jobs. It’s all immigrants many illegal whose basic support comes from their children’s welfare benefits and government housing.

    It’s not 1920.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    White and Asian kids who work at Chik-fil-A seem to do well, as far as entry level menial labor goes.

    The only way a young person can advance from a shitty job is to leave it for a decent career job.
     
    The latter often requires previous work experience/history, which the former provides.
    , @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    What do you mean, incel?

    I graduated high school in 1958, and got one of those "shitty" jobs at a grocery store. Couple years later, I was the manager and bought a car! Few years after that, I became the district's manager. I met my wife, and we bough a house for 25,000$! So sick of hearing these lazy and entitled millenials whining about stuff - they just need to pull up their bootstraps!

    And btw - look at this video of cool hip white people eating korean food! Haha see how on point I am I love foreign food too.
  120. @dfordoom


    (and the Republicans will do everything they can it set it at starvation level)
     
    It should be at starvation level and severely restricted.
     
    Because poor people deserve to suffer? Imagine the nightmare of poor people being able to live decent lives.

    Imagine the nightmare of poor people being able to live decent lives.

    Poor people need to work, too. Everybody needs a job. That’s everybody as in everybody.

    The last resort could be WPA style community service, but a good economic model would not really require many those.

    Tariffs! Autarky!

    • Replies: @Jedi Night
    "The last resort could be WPA style community service, but a good economic model would not really require many those."

    Why shouldn't the fedgov provide for a civilian work force? Unemployed people represent economic opportunity wasted as well as a drain on whoever is supporting them. Why not put them to use with job programs? It would increase our quality of life and help the economy.
    , @dfordoom

    Poor people need to work, too. Everybody needs a job. That’s everybody as in everybody.
     
    So what do you propose to do when the jobs just aren't there? The number of jobs that disappear in the next few years is likely to be much much larger than the number of jobs that are going to be created.

    It's a different world. It's not the 1950s. The idea that we can provide jobs for everyone looks increasingly unrealistic. Somehow we may have to adapt to a new world in which a very large proportion of the population has no prospect of employment.

    Resorting to moral arguments that work is good for the soul and that those who don't work must be punished is simply not viable. That's an argument that is popular among people who have nice comfortable middle-class jobs. Menial work is not good for the soul.

    We can't find solutions to current and future problems by retreating into the mental world of the 1950s.
  121. @Audacious Epigone
    The question is whether or not the asset bubble can be re-inflated without the Fed's ability meaningfully lower interest rates and without breaking the dollar. I don't think it can be.

    As far as betting odds go, gold is a pretty good measure. I bet a fairly prominent member of the twitterati in August of 2019 that in the coming year the GLD ETF would outperform the DJIA. We're still several months out, but it's almost unthinkable that I'm not going to beat him by a huge margin.

    He's free to comment if he feels so inclined!

    The question is whether or not the asset bubble can be re-inflated without the Fed’s ability meaningfully lower interest rates and without breaking the dollar.

    The NASDAQ composite (IXIC) closed yesterday at 8,515.74, which is only 13% below its all time closing high of 9,817.18 (Feb 19), and above its 200 DMA (the 50 DMA is still above the 200 DMA) — one caveat: AMZN is a heavily weighted component of the NASDAQ composite, and it is hitting all time highs because of the government authoritarian stupidity that eliminated a big slice of its competition shut “brick and mortar” stores.

    What is the alternative to the USD?

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
    Amazon and Netflix are viewed as safe harbors during a storm, but their P/Es are still absurdly high. Where does the future growth come from? They're overvalued and their market caps are huge. When the consequent collapse in real estate prices comes, and it's coming, a lot of people and institutions will have to sell just to fund their living and operational expenses.

    Tangentially, Amazon could be taken to the cleaners in coronavirus-related lawsuits.
    , @eah
    This kind of thing can happen when stores are forced to close and remain closed.

    Meanwhile, another new closing high for Amazon yesterday, and probably again later today --> AMZN

    https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1250627558749634562?s=20
  122. Some malls have suffered declining traffic due to racial demographic changes in the area or nearby, as well as other factors like access via public transit — here I’m specifically thinking of opposition to expanding MARTA in Atlanta; to some, MARTA = Moving Africans Rapidly Thru Atlanta — Gwinnett County north of Atlanta, which is still majority white, has consistently rejected an expansion of MARTA, most recently in 2019 — the big violence problem at Stonecrest Mall near Atlanta (due to Blacks of course) exists in part because they can reach the mall via MARTA and then a short bus ride — I’m sure there are many other examples, both cities and malls.

    But it can also be at least in part a chicken/egg problem — malls are developed around retail anchors that pull customers to the mall, and when these stores have problems, the mall has problems — and recently traditional anchors like Sears, JC Penney, Macy’s, etc, have all had BIG problems (JC Penney explores bankruptcy as recovery hopes fade) — the follow-on affects other retailers, e.g. GAP (GAP Is Closing 230 Stores Over The Next Two Years In Response To Declining Sales).

    The age of a mall can also be a problem — as the structure ages, and/or retail aesthetics change, a mall can seem outdated — when this happens to a sports stadium, they tear it down and build a new one, often at taxpayer expense — but the resulting traffic decline at a mall can set off a fatal domino effect.

    • Replies: @Alden
    RBB ruined by blacks. What a country that the positive common good of public transit is a cause of crime because blacks use it.
  123. @Alden
    Those shitty jobs go nowhere. The only way a young person can advance from a shitty job is to leave it for a decent career job.

    Unless there’s a good union. For instance grocery stores. The big chains are unionized and pay decent wages so the workers can buy homes own cars and have kids. The non union ones are minimum wage except for the stores that employ illegal aliens.

    Restaurant managers are often on monthly salary rather than hourly minimum wage. Sounds good until you divide weekly salary by the 60-70 hours worked a week and realize their hourly wage is less than minimum wage.

    In my state, teen and young Whites are never hired for shitty jobs. It’s all immigrants many illegal whose basic support comes from their children’s welfare benefits and government housing.

    It’s not 1920.

    White and Asian kids who work at Chik-fil-A seem to do well, as far as entry level menial labor goes.

    The only way a young person can advance from a shitty job is to leave it for a decent career job.

    The latter often requires previous work experience/history, which the former provides.

    • Replies: @Oo-ee-oo-ah-ah-ting-tang-walla-walla-bing-bang
    Positively not. Career track jobs will prefer “volunteered at a non profit” over “washed dishes” 9 times out of ten. Physically and socially isolating your kids from the Mark of the Deplorable is the new #1 job of parents. It’s not fair and it’s not eusocial but here we are
    , @anon
    White and Asian kids who work at Chik-fil-A seem to do well, as far as entry level menial labor goes.

    Chik-fil-A is not a typical fast food employer. No other fast food outlet closes on Sunday, for example.

    Yes, even a crummy job provides experience. If nothing else a young person can learn what they do not want to do in the future. Getting to work on time is a valuable skill.

    But let's not pretend that "checkout clerk at the cheap jewelry store" is an indispensable, critical part of the US economy, either.
  124. The strip malls within a 5 mile radius are all empty, businesses closed and customers non existent. Businesses include a chocolate store, dentist, medical walk in, smoke shop, mortgage broker, convenience store, book store etc. One small mall further away had a restaurant open but only for curbside takeaway. They close at 5 pm and had 2-3 customers all that day as all other employers in the area are closed. No workers = no customers. The owner says he is done this monthend and has already contacted a law firm to initiate bankruptcy proceedings. The mall owner is also tottering on the edge. If all his closed retail renters go belly up he must drop the keys off to the bank and walk away. Question is who will buy the mall and where will they get people to rent and open up small businesses ? I think the majority of strip malls are damaged for a long time.

    There is one large mall within a 10 minute drive but that is all closed up. Lots of problems with black immigrants mainly with the 2 jewellery stores. A posse walks in and while some harass the employees the others smash the display cabinets and take off with the contents. Same modus operandi with the sneaker store.

    There are a ton of clothing stores in said mall. Even before the lockdown they were mostly bereft of customers. Dont know how they pay their bills and there is high closure rate. One day a space is occupied by Company X and 4 months later they are gone, the space is empty and another clothing store Company Z turns up. Whether they sell one jeans or 100 jeans the landlord has to be paid !

    I think even at this stage the economy is badly damaged. It may recover but not in the near future and I hope I am wrong in this.

    In the meantime at the local supermarket where the social distance lineup stretches 50 years outside the entrance. There are now stickies on the floor denoting the correct social distance although the aisles are less than 6 feet. Cashiers are protected by glass cages and the manager looks like he is wearing some type of welding mask which he lifts up to talk to a pissed off customer. Yesterday two frail looking old ladies went at it with their shopping carts, walking sticks and profanity …over pack of toilet paper ! Store security showed but but almost got whacked by the three pronged walking sticks and then the police but what are they going to do ? Charge and jail a couple of 8 year olds. Yes it is an interesting time.

    We are all in this together folks…. and when it is over the fallout will be even more devastating than the fatalities of the virus itself.

  125. @Alden
    Those shitty jobs go nowhere. The only way a young person can advance from a shitty job is to leave it for a decent career job.

    Unless there’s a good union. For instance grocery stores. The big chains are unionized and pay decent wages so the workers can buy homes own cars and have kids. The non union ones are minimum wage except for the stores that employ illegal aliens.

    Restaurant managers are often on monthly salary rather than hourly minimum wage. Sounds good until you divide weekly salary by the 60-70 hours worked a week and realize their hourly wage is less than minimum wage.

    In my state, teen and young Whites are never hired for shitty jobs. It’s all immigrants many illegal whose basic support comes from their children’s welfare benefits and government housing.

    It’s not 1920.

    What do you mean, incel?

    I graduated high school in 1958, and got one of those “shitty” jobs at a grocery store. Couple years later, I was the manager and bought a car! Few years after that, I became the district’s manager. I met my wife, and we bough a house for 25,000$! So sick of hearing these lazy and entitled millenials whining about stuff – they just need to pull up their bootstraps!

    And btw – look at this video of cool hip white people eating korean food! Haha see how on point I am I love foreign food too.

    • Replies: @Alden
    That was in 1958. Nowadays you need a business degree to be a supermarket management trainee.

    Times have changed.
  126. @dfordoom

    UBI, some form of which I think is coming, may actually be a boon for marriage (or at least cohabitation). Two subsistence ‘incomes’ under one roof are better than one.
     
    Yes, there's some truth in that.

    I suspect a UBI is coming as well. Of course it depends on how miserly it is (and the Republicans will do everything they can it set it at starvation level). If it's really miserly it won't improve things much. You'll still have an underclass living lives of desperation and squalor.

    It needs to be set at a level that would allow people to live decent lives. It needs to be set at a level that would offer people hope. If you do that you might have people not just getting married but even raising families.

    And there's no point in people complaining that it's bad for people not to work. Within the next ten years virtually all retail jobs will disappear. That was going to happen anyway. COVID-19 will merely accelerate the process. The few manufacturing jobs left will decline as factories become more and more automated. I don't see any way you can have a future in which everybody has a job. I don't think service industries can provide the number of jobs that would be required.

    People will find to find other ways to give their lives meaning, other than having a job. That might be a very good thing or a very bad thing. We have to hope that we can make it work.

    I saw a recent reference regarding the Feds distributing stimulus money during the 2008/2009 economic downturn. Then, I scratched my head wondering why I didn’t remember anything about it. Then, I saw another reference that the $250 dole had been sent to people on Social Security, Supplemental Security Income (SSI), Railroad Retirement Board (RRB), and disabled veterans … absolutely ineffective for stimulating the economy or affecting people’s lives. No wonder I had to have my memory jogged.

    Although an adamant conservative, I’m all for a UBI in spite of the fact that I know people who will spend their UBIs sitting on the front porch smoking marijuana. As a minimum, a UBI will force us to close our borders and enforce rational immigration policies.

    However, it will be interesting to see how the USG can structure a meaningful UBI in amounts more than the cost of eating out four times a month. The challenge: How can a bankrupt country afford a meaningful UBI costing trillions of dollars … layered on top of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the largest military budget in the world?

    Print more money? Have the Treasury continue to issue seemingly endless reams of government bonds that the Federal Reserve buys and puts on “account” to camouflage the fact the Federal Reserve is running the printing presses on overtime. (This is euphemistically called monetizing debt.) Oops, there are no printing presses. All it takes is a finger hitting a computer key. How easy can this get?

    A meaningful UBI? I suspect something has to give to avoid the United States becoming a new “Argentina” … lest we forget that Argentina was a wealthy country at the beginning of the 20th Century until cycles of inflation destroyed its economy.

    The bad news might be that the United States can no more afford a meaningful UBI than Mexico or Argentina. I fear we are doomed to continue doing what we are doing (recognizing that it doesn’t work) in the hope that something will change. You know the aphorism for insanity.

  127. @Twinkie
    White and Asian kids who work at Chik-fil-A seem to do well, as far as entry level menial labor goes.

    The only way a young person can advance from a shitty job is to leave it for a decent career job.
     
    The latter often requires previous work experience/history, which the former provides.

    Positively not. Career track jobs will prefer “volunteered at a non profit” over “washed dishes” 9 times out of ten. Physically and socially isolating your kids from the Mark of the Deplorable is the new #1 job of parents. It’s not fair and it’s not eusocial but here we are

    • Agree: Alden
    • Replies: @Alden
    You’re right. Volunteering at a non profit is infinitely preferable to any kind of useful work.
    , @res
    I'd be interested in hearing more thoughts about this both from you and other people. I suspect there is some truth to that and it is one of the dramatic changes since Twinkie was that age (though IIRC he has children of an age to be concerned about things like that).

    There is also the issue of what kind of "career track jobs" you mean. And where they are (e.g. urban vs. rural).
  128. There is a lot more potential working through the internet right now. I’ve noticed this since the lock down…

    People have U-tube channels which explore every sort of topic from murder to space exploration and people will pay through various mechanisms to view these. I am right in the middle of a U-tube series right now going into every facet of the psychology of that Chris Watts who committed murder out in Colorado. From animals to homesteading (growing your own vegetables, chickens, etc.,) there is a channel for every interest.

    I’ve also made some online friends in Australia, South Africa and Great Britain…and finally learned to Skype.

    Now I also work at home part-time doing data input. Fortunately I was not impacted yet by this lock down as the company I work for does medical transportation and business is continuing…

    So I believe and hope that this might usher in a new age of working through the internet now. We might finally realize the potential for education, work, and outreach that people always talked about when TV was first introduced. But it never happened with TV as most of the programming just degenerated into mindless dribble. Now we have a moment, right now, where the internet might just reach that goal.

    Maybe.

    We’ll see…

  129. @dfordoom


    “the Stagflation Seventies ended the Swinging Sixties”
     
    From a UK perspective, that’s nonsense. The Seventies were far more ‘permissive’ than the Sixties and the Eighties more so still. Cutting edge Sixties culture spread through universities in the 70s and went mainstream in the 80s. And it’s not stopped yet.
     
    I agree. That was certainly the case here in Australia. I suspect it was largely the case in the US as well.

    In the 60s most people still got married, bought a house and raised kids.

    The Roaring Twenties and the Swinging Sixties were almost entirely middle-class urban phenomena. They only affected a very small minority of the population.

    The large-scale spread of "permissiveness" and its associated phenomena (the Sexual Revolution, feminism, Gay Liberation, the collapse of censorship, the beginnings of the major porn explosion) actually coincided almost precisely with the economic crisis of the 70s. As the economy got worse degeneracy increased exponentially.

    You say that as the economy got worse, the culture became more degenerate. But the permissiveness of the ’20s didn’t extend into the ’30s when the economy tanked. To the contrary, hemlines got lower. The Great Depression isn’t known as a time of widespread cultural degeneracy.

    I’m not saying you’re wrong about the ’60s and ’70s, just wondering why it turned out so differently the second time around.

    Perhaps the Great Depression was just that much worse than the stagflation of the ’70s. Perhaps certain groups had gained more influence in society. Perhaps in the ’30s Christianity was still the cultural default. I don’t really know. I’m just throwing out ideas.

    • Replies: @Mark G.

    Perhaps certain groups had gained more influence in society.
     
    YetAnotherAnon mentioned in comment 83 above that we had the universities spreading cultural liberalism in the seventies. They were a much smaller factor in American life in the thirties.

    There is often a bifurcation between high culture and popular culture. I went through above how the popular culture became more conservative in the seventies, as witnessed by fifties nostalgia in that decade along with social conservatives like Carter rather than McGovern types getting elected. When people in the seventies became nostalgic for the fifties, they were nostalgic for fifties popular culture not the fifties culturally liberal avant-garde culture. There wasn't a "Happy Days" tv show where the characters read Kerouac and Burroughs, listened to Parker and Coltrane, and put up reproductions of Jackson Pollack paintings on the wall.

    So you can say the seventies became more socially conservative in popular culture and politics while cultural liberals gnawed away like termites at the foundations of that society. It just depends on what aspects you are looking at.
    , @Auntie Analogue
    My dear Saint Louis, one idea you seem to have overlooked is that in 1924 immigration restriction became very strict, so that through the rest of the 1920's, through the 1930's all the way to 1965, Americans became melded into One People. It was after the disastrous 1965 Hart-Celler Open Immigration Act that our country, heritage, customs, culture, and social capital began to go - and to accelerate - to hell. With President Nixon's early 1970's opening of Red China the whole Globali$m racket of outsourcing American industries and Americans' solid jobs and sound careers began also to take off.

    I hope those two realities help you to grok what's been imposed upon us, because no American I know had ever voted for Open Immigration or the Globali$t $ellout that together culminated in today's Great Replacement of . . . us.
    , @dfordoom

    You say that as the economy got worse, the culture became more degenerate. But the permissiveness of the ’20s didn’t extend into the ’30s when the economy tanked. To the contrary, hemlines got lower.
     
    The permissiveness of the 20s may have been more superficial. Women wearing short skirts and dancing to jazz bands and drinking bootleg liquor in a speakeasy isn't quite the same as having group sex or open marriages or having casual sex with people you pick up in a bar.

    You have to remember one huge difference. In the 60s there was the contraceptive pill and by the 70s there was effectively abortion on demand. The consequences of sexual libertinism were nil (or at least the direct consequences were nil). In the 20s sexual libertinism meant babies. Abortion was possible but expensive, a lot of trouble, illegal and dangerous. The Flappers of the 20s may have been flirting madly but they still thought twice about actually having sex. I suspect that most still intended to get married.

    In the Roaring 20s homosexuality was mostly illegal and had social consequences. It may have been talked about more openly but it wasn't necessarily widely practised outside of tight-knit homosexual subcultures. By the end of the 60s it was de facto legal and there were no social consequences.

    So while the Swinging 60s was, like the Roaring 20s, mostly a middle-class and upper-class urban thing the sexual libertinism was much more for real. And the contraceptive pill made it very difficult to reverse.

    Perhaps in the ’30s Christianity was still the cultural default.
     
    There was certainly a backlash in the US in the 30s led by the Catholic Legion of Decency and they had real political muscle. When they threatened Hollywood with a boycott unless it cleaned up its act Hollywood knew it was no empty threat.

    The attempted Christian backlashes after the Swinging 60s, such as the Festival of Light in Britain (and its Australian counterpart), really were empty threats. Even the Moral Majority in the US (which came at the end of the 70s) achieved nothing of consequence.
  130. @Saint Louis
    You say that as the economy got worse, the culture became more degenerate. But the permissiveness of the '20s didn't extend into the '30s when the economy tanked. To the contrary, hemlines got lower. The Great Depression isn't known as a time of widespread cultural degeneracy.

    I'm not saying you're wrong about the '60s and '70s, just wondering why it turned out so differently the second time around.

    Perhaps the Great Depression was just that much worse than the stagflation of the '70s. Perhaps certain groups had gained more influence in society. Perhaps in the '30s Christianity was still the cultural default. I don't really know. I'm just throwing out ideas.

    Perhaps certain groups had gained more influence in society.

    YetAnotherAnon mentioned in comment 83 above that we had the universities spreading cultural liberalism in the seventies. They were a much smaller factor in American life in the thirties.

    There is often a bifurcation between high culture and popular culture. I went through above how the popular culture became more conservative in the seventies, as witnessed by fifties nostalgia in that decade along with social conservatives like Carter rather than McGovern types getting elected. When people in the seventies became nostalgic for the fifties, they were nostalgic for fifties popular culture not the fifties culturally liberal avant-garde culture. There wasn’t a “Happy Days” tv show where the characters read Kerouac and Burroughs, listened to Parker and Coltrane, and put up reproductions of Jackson Pollack paintings on the wall.

    So you can say the seventies became more socially conservative in popular culture and politics while cultural liberals gnawed away like termites at the foundations of that society. It just depends on what aspects you are looking at.

  131. anon[555] • Disclaimer says:
    @Twinkie
    White and Asian kids who work at Chik-fil-A seem to do well, as far as entry level menial labor goes.

    The only way a young person can advance from a shitty job is to leave it for a decent career job.
     
    The latter often requires previous work experience/history, which the former provides.

    White and Asian kids who work at Chik-fil-A seem to do well, as far as entry level menial labor goes.

    Chik-fil-A is not a typical fast food employer. No other fast food outlet closes on Sunday, for example.

    Yes, even a crummy job provides experience. If nothing else a young person can learn what they do not want to do in the future. Getting to work on time is a valuable skill.

    But let’s not pretend that “checkout clerk at the cheap jewelry store” is an indispensable, critical part of the US economy, either.

  132. @Oo-ee-oo-ah-ah-ting-tang-walla-walla-bing-bang
    Positively not. Career track jobs will prefer “volunteered at a non profit” over “washed dishes” 9 times out of ten. Physically and socially isolating your kids from the Mark of the Deplorable is the new #1 job of parents. It’s not fair and it’s not eusocial but here we are

    You’re right. Volunteering at a non profit is infinitely preferable to any kind of useful work.

  133. @LoutishAngloQuebecker
    What do you mean, incel?

    I graduated high school in 1958, and got one of those "shitty" jobs at a grocery store. Couple years later, I was the manager and bought a car! Few years after that, I became the district's manager. I met my wife, and we bough a house for 25,000$! So sick of hearing these lazy and entitled millenials whining about stuff - they just need to pull up their bootstraps!

    And btw - look at this video of cool hip white people eating korean food! Haha see how on point I am I love foreign food too.

    That was in 1958. Nowadays you need a business degree to be a supermarket management trainee.

    Times have changed.

  134. @eah
    Some malls have suffered declining traffic due to racial demographic changes in the area or nearby, as well as other factors like access via public transit -- here I'm specifically thinking of opposition to expanding MARTA in Atlanta; to some, MARTA = Moving Africans Rapidly Thru Atlanta -- Gwinnett County north of Atlanta, which is still majority white, has consistently rejected an expansion of MARTA, most recently in 2019 -- the big violence problem at Stonecrest Mall near Atlanta (due to Blacks of course) exists in part because they can reach the mall via MARTA and then a short bus ride -- I'm sure there are many other examples, both cities and malls.

    But it can also be at least in part a chicken/egg problem -- malls are developed around retail anchors that pull customers to the mall, and when these stores have problems, the mall has problems -- and recently traditional anchors like Sears, JC Penney, Macy's, etc, have all had BIG problems (JC Penney explores bankruptcy as recovery hopes fade) -- the follow-on affects other retailers, e.g. GAP (GAP Is Closing 230 Stores Over The Next Two Years In Response To Declining Sales).

    The age of a mall can also be a problem -- as the structure ages, and/or retail aesthetics change, a mall can seem outdated -- when this happens to a sports stadium, they tear it down and build a new one, often at taxpayer expense -- but the resulting traffic decline at a mall can set off a fatal domino effect.

    RBB ruined by blacks. What a country that the positive common good of public transit is a cause of crime because blacks use it.

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
  135. @Oo-ee-oo-ah-ah-ting-tang-walla-walla-bing-bang
    Positively not. Career track jobs will prefer “volunteered at a non profit” over “washed dishes” 9 times out of ten. Physically and socially isolating your kids from the Mark of the Deplorable is the new #1 job of parents. It’s not fair and it’s not eusocial but here we are

    I’d be interested in hearing more thoughts about this both from you and other people. I suspect there is some truth to that and it is one of the dramatic changes since Twinkie was that age (though IIRC he has children of an age to be concerned about things like that).

    There is also the issue of what kind of “career track jobs” you mean. And where they are (e.g. urban vs. rural).

  136. @iffen
    Imagine the nightmare of poor people being able to live decent lives.

    Poor people need to work, too. Everybody needs a job. That's everybody as in everybody.

    The last resort could be WPA style community service, but a good economic model would not really require many those.

    Tariffs! Autarky!

    “The last resort could be WPA style community service, but a good economic model would not really require many those.”

    Why shouldn’t the fedgov provide for a civilian work force? Unemployed people represent economic opportunity wasted as well as a drain on whoever is supporting them. Why not put them to use with job programs? It would increase our quality of life and help the economy.

  137. @Saint Louis
    You say that as the economy got worse, the culture became more degenerate. But the permissiveness of the '20s didn't extend into the '30s when the economy tanked. To the contrary, hemlines got lower. The Great Depression isn't known as a time of widespread cultural degeneracy.

    I'm not saying you're wrong about the '60s and '70s, just wondering why it turned out so differently the second time around.

    Perhaps the Great Depression was just that much worse than the stagflation of the '70s. Perhaps certain groups had gained more influence in society. Perhaps in the '30s Christianity was still the cultural default. I don't really know. I'm just throwing out ideas.

    My dear Saint Louis, one idea you seem to have overlooked is that in 1924 immigration restriction became very strict, so that through the rest of the 1920’s, through the 1930’s all the way to 1965, Americans became melded into One People. It was after the disastrous 1965 Hart-Celler Open Immigration Act that our country, heritage, customs, culture, and social capital began to go – and to accelerate – to hell. With President Nixon’s early 1970’s opening of Red China the whole Globali$m racket of outsourcing American industries and Americans’ solid jobs and sound careers began also to take off.

    I hope those two realities help you to grok what’s been imposed upon us, because no American I know had ever voted for Open Immigration or the Globali$t $ellout that together culminated in today’s Great Replacement of . . . us.

  138. @neutral
    The secular international jew is ultimately produced from the Orthodox jew, give or take a few generations and you will have plenty lapsed types produced. This myth of the jews being in the same boat as the dwindling whites is a narrative that jews have created for places like this site, to try make it is look silly that jews are not interested in replacing the white race.

    Will Mormons and the Amish become the secular white gentiles of 2100?

    Younger and Orthodox (overlap here of course because of differential birthrates) Jews are more conservative and more favorable to immigration restrictionism than older and secular Jews are. The inverse relationship between age and right wing political affiliation is unique to Jews.

  139. @eah
    The question is whether or not the asset bubble can be re-inflated without the Fed’s ability meaningfully lower interest rates and without breaking the dollar.

    The NASDAQ composite (IXIC) closed yesterday at 8,515.74, which is only 13% below its all time closing high of 9,817.18 (Feb 19), and above its 200 DMA (the 50 DMA is still above the 200 DMA) -- one caveat: AMZN is a heavily weighted component of the NASDAQ composite, and it is hitting all time highs because of the government authoritarian stupidity that eliminated a big slice of its competition shut "brick and mortar" stores.

    What is the alternative to the USD?

    Amazon and Netflix are viewed as safe harbors during a storm, but their P/Es are still absurdly high. Where does the future growth come from? They’re overvalued and their market caps are huge. When the consequent collapse in real estate prices comes, and it’s coming, a lot of people and institutions will have to sell just to fund their living and operational expenses.

    Tangentially, Amazon could be taken to the cleaners in coronavirus-related lawsuits.

    • Replies: @Pat Kittle

    Where does the future growth come from?
     
    The notion of endless growth in a finite place is absurd.

    The pursuit of it is insane.
  140. @iffen
    Imagine the nightmare of poor people being able to live decent lives.

    Poor people need to work, too. Everybody needs a job. That's everybody as in everybody.

    The last resort could be WPA style community service, but a good economic model would not really require many those.

    Tariffs! Autarky!

    Poor people need to work, too. Everybody needs a job. That’s everybody as in everybody.

    So what do you propose to do when the jobs just aren’t there? The number of jobs that disappear in the next few years is likely to be much much larger than the number of jobs that are going to be created.

    It’s a different world. It’s not the 1950s. The idea that we can provide jobs for everyone looks increasingly unrealistic. Somehow we may have to adapt to a new world in which a very large proportion of the population has no prospect of employment.

    Resorting to moral arguments that work is good for the soul and that those who don’t work must be punished is simply not viable. That’s an argument that is popular among people who have nice comfortable middle-class jobs. Menial work is not good for the soul.

    We can’t find solutions to current and future problems by retreating into the mental world of the 1950s.

    • Replies: @Mr. Rational

    The idea that we can provide jobs for everyone looks increasingly unrealistic.
     
    A large fraction of blacks (perhaps a substantial majority) are unemployable by any measure of actual merit.  They must be regarded as a failed species and allowed (forced, in civilization) to go extinct.

    And of course, forbidden to vote or otherwise influence government or society in general.

    , @iffen
    Menial work is not good for the soul.

    Everyone needs a "place" in our society and having a job is the main way of insuring that happens. Getting up, going to work on time and on the appointed days, learning to take instructions and abide by rules is very good for the soul.

    If we were able to control our borders, Americans would fill the jobs that the immigrants are now taking. That alone would get us through the next couple of decades.

    We need to re-establish our manufacturing base, especially in essential industries. That would give us another couple of decades.

    It can be done, but the political force and will is not there.

  141. @dfordoom

    Poor people need to work, too. Everybody needs a job. That’s everybody as in everybody.
     
    So what do you propose to do when the jobs just aren't there? The number of jobs that disappear in the next few years is likely to be much much larger than the number of jobs that are going to be created.

    It's a different world. It's not the 1950s. The idea that we can provide jobs for everyone looks increasingly unrealistic. Somehow we may have to adapt to a new world in which a very large proportion of the population has no prospect of employment.

    Resorting to moral arguments that work is good for the soul and that those who don't work must be punished is simply not viable. That's an argument that is popular among people who have nice comfortable middle-class jobs. Menial work is not good for the soul.

    We can't find solutions to current and future problems by retreating into the mental world of the 1950s.

    The idea that we can provide jobs for everyone looks increasingly unrealistic.

    A large fraction of blacks (perhaps a substantial majority) are unemployable by any measure of actual merit.  They must be regarded as a failed species and allowed (forced, in civilization) to go extinct.

    And of course, forbidden to vote or otherwise influence government or society in general.

    • Agree: EldnahYm
  142. @Audacious Epigone
    Amazon and Netflix are viewed as safe harbors during a storm, but their P/Es are still absurdly high. Where does the future growth come from? They're overvalued and their market caps are huge. When the consequent collapse in real estate prices comes, and it's coming, a lot of people and institutions will have to sell just to fund their living and operational expenses.

    Tangentially, Amazon could be taken to the cleaners in coronavirus-related lawsuits.

    Where does the future growth come from?

    The notion of endless growth in a finite place is absurd.

    The pursuit of it is insane.

  143. @Saint Louis
    You say that as the economy got worse, the culture became more degenerate. But the permissiveness of the '20s didn't extend into the '30s when the economy tanked. To the contrary, hemlines got lower. The Great Depression isn't known as a time of widespread cultural degeneracy.

    I'm not saying you're wrong about the '60s and '70s, just wondering why it turned out so differently the second time around.

    Perhaps the Great Depression was just that much worse than the stagflation of the '70s. Perhaps certain groups had gained more influence in society. Perhaps in the '30s Christianity was still the cultural default. I don't really know. I'm just throwing out ideas.

    You say that as the economy got worse, the culture became more degenerate. But the permissiveness of the ’20s didn’t extend into the ’30s when the economy tanked. To the contrary, hemlines got lower.

    The permissiveness of the 20s may have been more superficial. Women wearing short skirts and dancing to jazz bands and drinking bootleg liquor in a speakeasy isn’t quite the same as having group sex or open marriages or having casual sex with people you pick up in a bar.

    You have to remember one huge difference. In the 60s there was the contraceptive pill and by the 70s there was effectively abortion on demand. The consequences of sexual libertinism were nil (or at least the direct consequences were nil). In the 20s sexual libertinism meant babies. Abortion was possible but expensive, a lot of trouble, illegal and dangerous. The Flappers of the 20s may have been flirting madly but they still thought twice about actually having sex. I suspect that most still intended to get married.

    In the Roaring 20s homosexuality was mostly illegal and had social consequences. It may have been talked about more openly but it wasn’t necessarily widely practised outside of tight-knit homosexual subcultures. By the end of the 60s it was de facto legal and there were no social consequences.

    So while the Swinging 60s was, like the Roaring 20s, mostly a middle-class and upper-class urban thing the sexual libertinism was much more for real. And the contraceptive pill made it very difficult to reverse.

    Perhaps in the ’30s Christianity was still the cultural default.

    There was certainly a backlash in the US in the 30s led by the Catholic Legion of Decency and they had real political muscle. When they threatened Hollywood with a boycott unless it cleaned up its act Hollywood knew it was no empty threat.

    The attempted Christian backlashes after the Swinging 60s, such as the Festival of Light in Britain (and its Australian counterpart), really were empty threats. Even the Moral Majority in the US (which came at the end of the 70s) achieved nothing of consequence.

  144. @eah
    The question is whether or not the asset bubble can be re-inflated without the Fed’s ability meaningfully lower interest rates and without breaking the dollar.

    The NASDAQ composite (IXIC) closed yesterday at 8,515.74, which is only 13% below its all time closing high of 9,817.18 (Feb 19), and above its 200 DMA (the 50 DMA is still above the 200 DMA) -- one caveat: AMZN is a heavily weighted component of the NASDAQ composite, and it is hitting all time highs because of the government authoritarian stupidity that eliminated a big slice of its competition shut "brick and mortar" stores.

    What is the alternative to the USD?

    This kind of thing can happen when stores are forced to close and remain closed.

    Meanwhile, another new closing high for Amazon yesterday, and probably again later today –> AMZN

    • Replies: @eah
    "and probably again later today"

    AMZN is up 6% again today at the moment -- Jeff Bezos is probably writing a personal thank you note to Trump, as well as considering changing the (generally very anti-Trump) editorial stance of the WaPo.
  145. @dfordoom

    Poor people need to work, too. Everybody needs a job. That’s everybody as in everybody.
     
    So what do you propose to do when the jobs just aren't there? The number of jobs that disappear in the next few years is likely to be much much larger than the number of jobs that are going to be created.

    It's a different world. It's not the 1950s. The idea that we can provide jobs for everyone looks increasingly unrealistic. Somehow we may have to adapt to a new world in which a very large proportion of the population has no prospect of employment.

    Resorting to moral arguments that work is good for the soul and that those who don't work must be punished is simply not viable. That's an argument that is popular among people who have nice comfortable middle-class jobs. Menial work is not good for the soul.

    We can't find solutions to current and future problems by retreating into the mental world of the 1950s.

    Menial work is not good for the soul.

    Everyone needs a “place” in our society and having a job is the main way of insuring that happens. Getting up, going to work on time and on the appointed days, learning to take instructions and abide by rules is very good for the soul.

    If we were able to control our borders, Americans would fill the jobs that the immigrants are now taking. That alone would get us through the next couple of decades.

    We need to re-establish our manufacturing base, especially in essential industries. That would give us another couple of decades.

    It can be done, but the political force and will is not there.

    • Agree: Mark G.
    • Replies: @dfordoom

    Everyone needs a “place” in our society and having a job is the main way of insuring that happens. Getting up, going to work on time and on the appointed days, learning to take instructions and abide by rules is very good for the soul.
     
    Maybe, but you still haven't answered the question - what do we do when the jobs just don't exist?

    When you've worked at a menial job for a while with no hope of getting anything better get back to me on how good it is for the soul.

    We need to re-establish our manufacturing base, especially in essential industries.
     
    That simply won't provide the necessary number of jobs. Fully automated factories employ very few people.

    It can be done, but the political force and will is not there.
     
    There's also the problem that most people will not want to pay the much higher prices which will be a consequence of re-establishing the manufacturing base. In fact they won't pay those prices. Sales will plummet and more retailers will go bust.
  146. @eah
    This kind of thing can happen when stores are forced to close and remain closed.

    Meanwhile, another new closing high for Amazon yesterday, and probably again later today --> AMZN

    https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1250627558749634562?s=20

    “and probably again later today”

    AMZN is up 6% again today at the moment — Jeff Bezos is probably writing a personal thank you note to Trump, as well as considering changing the (generally very anti-Trump) editorial stance of the WaPo.

  147. @Audacious Epigone
    That's been a phenomenon for a couple of decades now, but this will be different. Strip malls are more common than traditional malls--it's hard to live in suburbia and be within a couple miles of one. The domino effect in many of these places is going to be quite sad.

    My dads friend owns a corner store in the old “hood” i used to live in. The area is now 80% black. There’s a dollar store and 2 gas stations. He owns the strip mall his corner store is in. He has 3 units there and 1 is luckily for him a liquor store.

    He tells me though the idiots in his city are trying to jack up his property taxes. Rents are so low in the south that if his taxes go up by even 2-3k$ his strip mall becomes unprofitable. His corner store is already near bankrupt.

    The next 2 decades will be bleak in many parts of the country…..

  148. Nothing good ol’ command economy can’t fix…

    Oh, wait

  149. @iffen
    Menial work is not good for the soul.

    Everyone needs a "place" in our society and having a job is the main way of insuring that happens. Getting up, going to work on time and on the appointed days, learning to take instructions and abide by rules is very good for the soul.

    If we were able to control our borders, Americans would fill the jobs that the immigrants are now taking. That alone would get us through the next couple of decades.

    We need to re-establish our manufacturing base, especially in essential industries. That would give us another couple of decades.

    It can be done, but the political force and will is not there.

    Everyone needs a “place” in our society and having a job is the main way of insuring that happens. Getting up, going to work on time and on the appointed days, learning to take instructions and abide by rules is very good for the soul.

    Maybe, but you still haven’t answered the question – what do we do when the jobs just don’t exist?

    When you’ve worked at a menial job for a while with no hope of getting anything better get back to me on how good it is for the soul.

    We need to re-establish our manufacturing base, especially in essential industries.

    That simply won’t provide the necessary number of jobs. Fully automated factories employ very few people.

    It can be done, but the political force and will is not there.

    There’s also the problem that most people will not want to pay the much higher prices which will be a consequence of re-establishing the manufacturing base. In fact they won’t pay those prices. Sales will plummet and more retailers will go bust.

    • Replies: @iffen

    Maybe, but you still haven’t answered the question – what do we do when the jobs just don’t exist?

    If that happens we should shorten the normal workweek, and more importantly, use the productivity gains to raise the UBI.


    When you’ve worked at a menial job for a while with no hope of getting anything better get back to me on how good it is for the soul.

    You sure seem to not know very much about the lives of actual working people. I guarantee you that there are tens of thousands of cleaning staff workers who are taking immense pride that they have done their part to keep the corona virus out of "their" nursing home and have done their part to keep "their" patients safe. I could go on with cashiers at the grocery, meat cutters in the plants, factory workers doing repetitive work for extra hours to turn out protective equipment, etc.


    There’s also the problem that most people will not want to pay the much higher prices which will be a consequence of re-establishing the manufacturing base.

    Tariffs. If the American made one is not more expensive, they will buy it.

  150. @dfordoom

    Everyone needs a “place” in our society and having a job is the main way of insuring that happens. Getting up, going to work on time and on the appointed days, learning to take instructions and abide by rules is very good for the soul.
     
    Maybe, but you still haven't answered the question - what do we do when the jobs just don't exist?

    When you've worked at a menial job for a while with no hope of getting anything better get back to me on how good it is for the soul.

    We need to re-establish our manufacturing base, especially in essential industries.
     
    That simply won't provide the necessary number of jobs. Fully automated factories employ very few people.

    It can be done, but the political force and will is not there.
     
    There's also the problem that most people will not want to pay the much higher prices which will be a consequence of re-establishing the manufacturing base. In fact they won't pay those prices. Sales will plummet and more retailers will go bust.

    Maybe, but you still haven’t answered the question – what do we do when the jobs just don’t exist?

    If that happens we should shorten the normal workweek, and more importantly, use the productivity gains to raise the UBI.

    When you’ve worked at a menial job for a while with no hope of getting anything better get back to me on how good it is for the soul.

    You sure seem to not know very much about the lives of actual working people. I guarantee you that there are tens of thousands of cleaning staff workers who are taking immense pride that they have done their part to keep the corona virus out of “their” nursing home and have done their part to keep “their” patients safe. I could go on with cashiers at the grocery, meat cutters in the plants, factory workers doing repetitive work for extra hours to turn out protective equipment, etc.

    There’s also the problem that most people will not want to pay the much higher prices which will be a consequence of re-establishing the manufacturing base.

    Tariffs. If the American made one is not more expensive, they will buy it.

    • Replies: @dfordoom


    Maybe, but you still haven’t answered the question – what do we do when the jobs just don’t exist?
     
    If that happens we should shorten the normal workweek, and more importantly, use the productivity gains to raise the UBI.
     
    Shortening the working week is a very good idea. Particularly for women - I'm sure a lot of women would like to work fewer hours. Mind you a lot of men currently working very long hours would doubtless like to work fewer hours as well.

    Back in the 70s there a widespread belief that the working week was going to get steadily shorter. Instead it mostly got longer in practice. But the good news is that corporate profits increased.
  151. @iffen

    Maybe, but you still haven’t answered the question – what do we do when the jobs just don’t exist?

    If that happens we should shorten the normal workweek, and more importantly, use the productivity gains to raise the UBI.


    When you’ve worked at a menial job for a while with no hope of getting anything better get back to me on how good it is for the soul.

    You sure seem to not know very much about the lives of actual working people. I guarantee you that there are tens of thousands of cleaning staff workers who are taking immense pride that they have done their part to keep the corona virus out of "their" nursing home and have done their part to keep "their" patients safe. I could go on with cashiers at the grocery, meat cutters in the plants, factory workers doing repetitive work for extra hours to turn out protective equipment, etc.


    There’s also the problem that most people will not want to pay the much higher prices which will be a consequence of re-establishing the manufacturing base.

    Tariffs. If the American made one is not more expensive, they will buy it.

    Maybe, but you still haven’t answered the question – what do we do when the jobs just don’t exist?

    If that happens we should shorten the normal workweek, and more importantly, use the productivity gains to raise the UBI.

    Shortening the working week is a very good idea. Particularly for women – I’m sure a lot of women would like to work fewer hours. Mind you a lot of men currently working very long hours would doubtless like to work fewer hours as well.

    Back in the 70s there a widespread belief that the working week was going to get steadily shorter. Instead it mostly got longer in practice. But the good news is that corporate profits increased.

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