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Countering the fairly strong correlation between coronavirus cases and the size of the ethnically Chinese population at the state level come a pair of polls from SurveyUSA (N = 1,850). The organization asked respondents if anyone they know–a friend, a relative, a colleague, or a neighbor–has been diagnosed with coronavirus. The percentages who responded in the affirmative, by race:

Whites — 4.0%
Blacks — 8.5%
Hispanics — 8.5%
Asians — 7.0%

For those with numinous numeracy, it immediately jumps out. This suggests over 5% of the American population knows someone who has been diagnosed with coronavirus. That’s unbelievable. The country’s total diagnosed caseload as of this evening is ‘only’ 32,722.

For this to be accurate, the average size of the social network of those who know someone who has been diagnosed is an incredible 5,642 people! And that’s a conservative estimate of the size of the network. One of these surveys was taken a couple of days ago and the other last week, when the total caseload count was much lower and much, much lower, respectively.

Like so much else with this pandemic, these numbers are questionable, to put it mildly. When people panic, they see pandemonium everywhere. Histrionics and hysteria are on full display.

Speaking of questionable, it’s impossible not to be with regards to the US response up to this point. There are 37,000 automobile fatalities in the country each year. Half occur at night. By enacting a nationwide nighttime driving curfew, with exemptions for things like OTC trucking and emergency vehicles, upwards of 18,000 American lives could be saved. That’s forty times the number of people who’ve died from coronavirus in the US up to this point. Would that be more disruptive than indefinitely shutting the economy down?

It’s a tough situation. One of the kids gets sick on Saturday evening. Your wife wants to take her in to the children’s ER, just to be sure. Her temperature is almost 103, after all! You know it’s nothing the ER can do anything about. You don’t really want to get hit with the $200 co-pay. But what if you’re wrong? You’re probably not. You know you’re probably not. But what if you are? It’s untenable, so you relent and she takes your daughter in. When the bill comes, your I-told-you-so routine gets an indignant “$200 to make sure our daughter is okay is worth it every time” response. You’re the jackass, your wife’s a heroine.

The thing is that in this case, we’re not talking about a $200 bill. We’re talking about a $2 million bill that will wipe out your savings, cause you to lose the house, and lead to the repossession of all your stuff.

 
• Category: Culture/Society, Economics, Science • Tags: Economics, Health, Science 
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  1. MBlanc46 says:

    Yeah, $200 is doable (at least for many of us). When Mme B wanted to take the cat, who had clearly injured a rear leg and was in some discomfort, to the emergency vet on a Saturday afternoon, I didn’t hesitate. They did prescribe an analgesic, and Mme was pacified. Just under $200. But closing down the US economy for no one knows how long, with consequences that no one can conceive. Either garden variety lunacy, or TDS-inspired lunacy. It will not end well.

  2. The relevant Biblical text is the story of Joseph, and how, as the Pharaoah’s grand vizier, he commandeered the entire economy of Egypt and manipulated it in such a way that the entire nation were forced to sell themselves into slavery, just to eat.

    A canonical text-lesson for Fellow Americans, whose national hero lied to his dying father and swindled his own brother, and they admired these actions so much, they named their country after him.

    Hmmm….

    • Replies: @gate666
  3. There are 37,000 automobile fatalities in the country each year. Half occur at night.

    That comparison is just as lame as the one with the flu. Deaths from car accidents are a tragedy, but they don’t bring a modern health care system to collapse, like this Covid-19 epidemic conceivably could. It seems to me a lot of people who are already whining about lockdowns and similarly restrictive measures haven’t given much thought to what a wrecked health care system could mean, not only in human terms, but also in economic terms…how many people will just not turn up at work, when they’re running the risk of falling sick with a potentially very dangerous disease, while there isn’t a working health care system anymore? A lot of people seem to imagine it’s just a matter of shunting off a few thousand annoying pensioners (who should just hurry up dying anyway and not be a burden on the young and healthy), to croak in some secluded hospital room, while the rest of society can go on with its business like before…imo this is not only morally questionable, it’s also totally naive about the possible consequences, if this epidemic runs its course unimpeded.
    “indefinitely shutting the economy down” is also a straw man. Yes, the study from Imperial college London recommends something like that, for two thirds of the next 18 months, and that won’t be sustainable. But imo there’s a lot that could be done between those extremes. 1-2 months shutdown should at least make it possible to stop the escalation in the spread of the virus, and ramp up production of protective gear like face masks, expand hospital capacities and prepare a mass testing regime. Ideally it would then be possible to keep the epidemic at manageable levels without total lockdowns, until effective treatments or a vaccine have been found. Of course there would have to be strong restrictions on international travel and possibly also internal quarantines and movement restrictions as well. But at least the former would actually be a good thing anyway imo, not least from a perspective of immigration restrictionism.
    The pathetic response by Western societies to this crisis so far has been really illuminating. Not only are elites in pretty much every Western society (whether they’re nominally left or right) totally incompetent, it’s also shocking how many Westerners would apparently prefer a mass death of the elderly to even temporary restrictions, or have already adopted a “Nothing can be done anyway” defeatist attitude. It’s pretty disturbing when the Chinese, with their reputation for uncaring amorality, and the CCP come off looking so much better by comparison.

  4. Well, I already pasted in my bit about my feeling that this is the Socialists’ 9/11. They are chomping at the bit to go all-out Socialist with this Kung Flu. I agree that this has been way overblown – see The Kung Flu – SHTF or Infotainment Panic-Fest?.

    I appreciate your anecdote (or general tale) of the ER, and the way the women put things. I was in one of these long-distance we-need-to-have-a-talk conversations with a girlfriend on my cell phone way back when you paid for time. This was a 3-hour call. If I had interrupted to say “hey, listen, can we finish this later, I gotta watch my minutes”, well, you know the result of that.

    After the call, I immediately called T-Mobile (they were really cool back then) to ask where I stood on “my minutes”. “Oh, you’re fine, you’ve got ___.” “No, but that doesn’t include the 3-hour call I just made, does it?” I explained the girlfriend thing to this guy. “Oh, no, it doesn’t, but I understand, let me spot you 100 extra minutes.” ;-}

    Speaking of women, before Rosie can start typing, I will say that both Ann Coulter and Heather MacDonald agree with you and me on this overkill regarding the Kung Flu.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    , @Ash Williams
  5. Twinkie says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Speaking of women, before Rosie can start typing, I will say that both Ann Coulter and Heather MacDonald agree with you and me on this overkill regarding the Kung Flu.

    None of you works in medicine and knows how fragile our nation’s intensive care system is to a pandemic threat.

    Because of consolidation in the healthcare industry in the past decades, many hospitals have shut down, especially in rural areas and small towns. These communities are woefully ill-equipped to deal with a pandemic. Yes, they get car accidents too, but those don’t happen all at once or in a short period of time. When it does happen once in a while, they try their best to stabilize and then can put the patient on a helicopter and transport him to the closest level 1 trauma center (massive blood transfusion, trauma surgeon, sometimes neuro surgeon, burn unit, etc.) or level 2, if no need for a burn unit.

    When a pandemic hits a town such as this suddenly, those elderly folks and those with comorbidity over a handful that can be treated intensively (if that) are going to be in a bad way. It’s going to be like a school bus accident every week, only with a different demographic, not an odd drunk driver or two every couple of weeks over the whole year.

    I don’t know what the ICU coverage is like internationally, but Japan and South Korea have 12-13 hospital beds per 100,000 people. We have 2.5 or so. Italy has 3.

    That’s the price for getting rid of redundancy and having “just in time” supply system. It’s efficient, but is very vulnerable to an unexpected shock to the system.

  6. 216 says: • Website

    Defamation

    If it was Senator Harris, you’d be banned for saying this

    • Replies: @songbird
    , @Grahamsno(G64)
  7. songbird says:
    @216

    Someone said that they think he will replace Trebek. Guess he is sending the right political signals, but, in the end, I think he’s too Aryan-looking, and has a kind of WASPy name.

  8. indocon says:

    New York (mostly the city, not upstate) has about half the cases right now and third of the deaths, looking ahead to the end of trumps 14 day march down next Sunday, I would not be surprised to see the rest of the country starts to calm down while New York is still burning.

    This is the best site for up-to-date information, all volunteer run, probably by liberal white programmer types, they do come in handy every once in a while:
    https://infection2020.com

  9. @Twinkie

    We’ll see, Twinkie. I don’t think those numbers on hospital beds are right, unless you mean specifically ICU spots (even then?) Where we live, I just calculated 1 hospital bed for every 250 residents of the metro area.. That’s 400 per every 100,000. Even for ICU spots, it’s gotta be higher than those single-digits. Are your numbers per 1,000 people perhaps?

    • Replies: @Twinkie
  10. Blacks and Hispanics don’t even know what a coronavirus is. They are just following the trends. This is turning into a social media phenomenon with every celebrity hitting Twitter to announce their positive test results. It’s now #CoronaBucketChallenge.

    We haved a dumbed-down, scientifically illiterate population of social media junkies who now have no job and will shortly get paid to sit at home and do nothing but follow the Facebook groups and obsess about the pandemonium. Once they figure out they can get paid even more for contracting corona, the number of “cases” will explode higher again.

    • LOL: Mr McKenna
  11. songbird says:
    @German_reader

    I know someone who owns a small business and has to pay commercial rent. I suppose the US government will just print money or something, but what really interests me as a test of constancy is the schools.

    Pozzed society absolutely needs its schools like a drug. A lot of them have shut down for three weeks, but what after that? You can’t develop a vaccine in three weeks. But how much longer can they stay closed? To my mind, that is the interesting test beyond any economics. I’ll be very surprised if they don’t reopen at the end of that time, or stay closed for anything other than an extra week.

    It’s also occurred to me that one could put this in diversity terms. Could we all take lengthy annual vacations like this, without losing wealth, if we weren’t paying the diversity tax?

  12. @songbird

    This will never happen, but my practical (viz, factoring in woke quotient) pick to replace Trebek would be Lucy Liu.

    Mature but still telegenic, smart and personable, gives off the proper vibe of “the game show for smart people,” and of course, female POC — but not the type of “of color” that would insult the audience by forcing them to sit there with clenched teeth and politely pretend that Wanda Sykes is smart enough to host the show.

  13. @songbird

    Pozzed society absolutely needs its schools like a drug.

    The one good I could see coming from this crisis is a reduction in pozzed nonsense, a hard problem like an epidemic (which was spread not least through a dogmatic commitment to open borders) and the resulting economic downturn should discredit the pozzed left with its obsessions over trannies, homos and people of color, also incompetent centrists like Germany’s Merkel (who has now been put under quarantine herself, lol). But unfortunately that’s probably too optimistic, could just as well reinforce the stranglehold on power by existing elites.

    • Replies: @Lockean Proviso
    , @songbird
  14. Twinkie says:
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Are your numbers per 1,000 people perhaps?

    Yes, I meant per 1,000.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds

    Where we live, I just calculated 1 hospital bed for every 250 residents of the metro area.

    There is pretty significant disparity between areas in the U.S. I live in an area that is very hospital dense. My second home on the hills doesn’t. You get into a mass casualty situation there, the chance of dying is pretty high.

    • Replies: @SFG
  15. Twinkie says:
    @Twinkie

    Japan and South Korea have 12-13 hospital beds per 100,000 people. We have 2.5 or so. Italy has 3.

    Per 1,000, not 100,000. Sorry about the error.

  16. Thomm says:

    OT, Speaking of black celebrity men and other public figures.

    I was struck by how many famous black men of the mid-to-late 20th century have a huge number of children. A quick visit to Wikipedia reveals :

    Elijah Muhammad : 23
    George Foreman : 10
    Ray Charles : 12 (!!!)
    Sammy Davis Jr. : 4
    Harry Bellafonte : 4
    James Brown : 13
    Sidney Poitier : 6
    Fats Domino : 8
    Louis Farrakhan : 9
    MLK : 4 (would have had more)
    Ralph Abernathy : 5
    Jesse Jackson : 6
    Muhammad Ali : 9
    Berry Gordy : 8
    Jermaine Jackson : 7
    Stevie Wonder : 9
    Quincy Jones : 7
    Barry White : 9
    Bob Marley : 9 (not an American, technically, but still).
    Philip Bailey : 7
    Bill Cosby : 5
    Larry Holmes : 5
    Morgan Freeman : 4
    Eddie Murphy : 10
    Kareem Abdul-Jabbar : 5
    Michael Jordan : 5

    I could go further, but you get the idea.

    Damn…..

    The unfortunate thing is, given that overall black TFR was still only 2.5-3.0 during the period in question, that means a disproportionate share of young blacks today are the children or grandchildren of famous men. Yet, somehow this isn’t doing anything for them.

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
    , @Dumbo
    , @SafeNow
    , @Thomm
  17. @Thomm

    Dude! That’s just the ones they admit to. Recalc!

  18. Dear Mr Amorphous: Since you made a big point about innumeracy in your essay, would you possibly reconsider the following?

    There are 37,000 automobile fatalities in the country each year. Half occur at night. By enacting a nationwide nighttime driving curfew, with exemptions for things like OTC trucking and emergency vehicles, upwards of 18,000 American lives could be saved.

    Perhaps you intended it as humor? Otherwise why not prohibit driving in the daytime, since by your lights it’s just about even? Daytime is safer? Read on..

    Why not consider that most of the driving you prohibit in one half of the diurnal cycle would simply shift to the other half, vastly (and likely disproportionately) increasing its fatality rate?

    • Replies: @res
    , @Audacious Epigone
  19. iffen says:

    If we survive, some of us are going to remember those that advocated for just letting it tear through.

    And yes, I will be taking names.

    • LOL: Twinkie
  20. iffen says:

    RE: NY coronavirus

    Cuomo and de Blasio both stalled on closings and social distancing for critical weeks. Now they are back in the fold with the Trump blamers and the Borg says nothing.

    Nobody in here but us chickens.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
  21. “Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard predicted the U.S. unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the coronavirus, with an unprecedented 50% drop in gross domestic product.”

    The highest unemployment rate to date in the US was 24.9% in 1933 in the early stages of the Great Depression. And while quarterly GDP statistics don’t exist for the early 1930s, there almost certainly was never a quarterly drop anywhere near this large.

    Even assuming Bullard’s numbers are significantly overstated, what is about to hit the fan appears unprecedented.

    • Agree: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @GU
  22. Twinkie says:
    @iffen

    Put me on your death squad. I can finally make one of my mentors proud (he cut his teeth in the Salvadoran counter-insurgency).

  23. SFG says:
    @Twinkie

    I kinda wonder if rural America will make a comeback now. NYC seems to have tried to deal with this pretty quickly and is still suffering the inevitable consequences of its density. They fled the city fearing crime, that went away and people went back, now maybe they’ll flee fearing disease…

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    , @Achmed E. Newman
  24. Twinkie says:
    @SFG

    Medical care is worse and people are older and sicker in rural areas, in general.

    • Replies: @iffen
    , @John Johnson
  25. If we win this war on coronavirus, the most cowardly germophobes will be the heroes. We should institute a new Congressional Medal of Cowardice.

  26. iffen says:
    @Twinkie

    Do you know if there is substance to the comments at AK’s blog to the effect that close to 100% of ventilated patients are dying anyway? What is the efficacy of ventilators?

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
    , @Twinkie
  27. @Intelligent Dasein

    “We haved a dumbed-down, scientifically illiterate population of social media junkies”

    True, but that description also fits the entire government apparatus.

  28. @songbird

    Developing a vaccine to end a pandemic is the Hollywood version of a tale. When has a vaccine stopped an epidemic outside of a movie or TV show? Vaccines show up after an epidemic is over, in real life. Also, the vaccine usually causes further illness and bestows no permanent immunity.

  29. iffen says:
    @Twinkie

    Death squad? Heavens no!

    I am a partisan of The Enlightenment. We must be civilized and honorable and use the guillotine on the deserving.

    • LOL: Talha
    • Replies: @Talha
    , @Kratoklastes
  30. Realist says:

    Like so much else with this pandemic, these numbers are questionable, to put it mildly.

    Exactly…most government data is wrong…intentionally or not.

  31. Dumbo says:
    @Thomm

    Problem is, they do have kids, just don’t take care of them. That’s the baby mama’s role!

    • Replies: @Thomm
  32. We were right on the edge of Trump doing the right thing

    National shutdown

    Suspend all debt obligations

    Emergency cash for everyone

    Now, things have gotten much worse (!) and all
    The sudden mass shilling for this is no big deal and just shut up and pay your mortgage on time.

    What the fuck is going on

    • Replies: @A123
  33. @German_reader

    Here’s a think piece in Politico where many of the 34 “big thinkers” (primarily establishment intellectuals) predict that post-COVID “we” will defer to [establishment] experts more, put aside our selfish individualism, and abandon partisan rancor in favor of unified opinion and the common good (no doubt as decided for us).

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/19/coronavirus-effect-economy-life-society-analysis-covid-135579?cid=apn

    Nada on raising standards or rejecting diversity due to institutional incompetence. However, state and local power is expected to grow due to central government failures.

  34. @German_reader

    “it’s also shocking how many Westerners would apparently prefer a mass death of the elderly to even temporary restrictions, or have already adopted a “Nothing can be done anyway” defeatist attitude.”

    It’s a tradeoff. Recall that you are writing from a society that pays for healthcare for all, while in the USA the young and poor and working pay for the medical care of the old and rich and not working. And now the young and poor without $400 for an emergency are being mass-unemployed to save the old and rich.

    There’s also a pollyannish view of the ability of the economy to recover. Businesses have to be run by entrepreneurs, who need to be able to take account of possibilities. One future possibility is that your functioning business can be shut down to save lives near their end, and that will now have to go into the calculus. Dead businesses are as hard to revive as dead people.

    I think plenty can be done, and in a way that doesn’t set interests of the healthy young against the wealthy old. Let the young and resilient go back to work. Build a moat around the old and sick, and use unemployed young people to provide services to them while we burn out the virus. That makes a lot more sense and might actually draw the society together.

  35. For those with numinous numeracy, it immediately jumps out. This suggests over 5% of the American population knows someone who has been diagnosed with coronavirus. That’s unbelievable. The country’s total diagnosed caseload as of this evening is ‘only’ 32,722.

    32,777/327,000,000 = 0.00010006727

    That is slightly more than one hundredth of one percent of the total U.S. population.

    I don’t know anyone who has been diagnosed with coronavirus.
    But, unlike the average American, I do not have 5,642 friends.

    PanicFest2020 is hysterical. Too bad it’s contagious.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  36. @Achmed E. Newman

    I was in one of these long-distance we-need-to-have-a-talk conversations with a girlfriend on my cell phone way back when you paid for time. This was a 3-hour call. If I had interrupted to say “hey, listen, can we finish this later, I gotta watch my minutes”, well, you know the result of that.

    …I hope you learned your lesson! XD

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  37. Talha says:
    @iffen

    “ Bring the Guillotine Back to Death Row
    A quick, painless, gruesome way to carry out capital punishment”
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/05/the-case-for-bringing-back-the-guillotine/361569/

    Peace.

  38. Nodwink says:

    Forget about the US, the place to watch right now is the UK:
    https://twitter.com/search?q=London%20Underground&src=typeahead_click

  39. A123 says:
    @Not my economy

    Now, things have gotten much worse (!) … What the fuck is going on

    The DNC elites want hand outs to their buddies. (1)

    “It’s incredibly frustrating,” said Cassidy in an interview on SiriusXM’s Breitbart News Sunday with host Joel Pollak. “Democrats and Republicans broke down into five working groups. They came to agreement on all five areas — appropriations, for example, tax law changes upon health and welfare issues, etcetera — we put them into a package, and now we had a vote tonight that would just allow us to continue to debate it for the next 30 hours. Keep in mind, all this negotiation has taken place between Democrats and Republicans. Pelosi came over with Schumer after having agreed to everything, and then said no, they that wanted something different, far different.”

    And, because voters chose anti-Americans for office, the process is grinding to halt. The Elite Globalist DNC hates U.S. citizens.

    PEACE 😷
    _______

    (1) https://www.breitbart.com/radio/2020/03/22/sen-bill-cassidy-pelosi-and-schumer-put-relief-for-americans-on-hold/

    • Replies: @Not my economy
  40. res says:
    @Mr McKenna

    Perhaps you intended it as humor? Otherwise why not prohibit driving in the daytime, since by your lights it’s just about even? Daytime is safer? Read on..

    There is the small (/sarc) detail of how the amount of driving varies by time of day. (this is especially ironic given your innumeracy comment)

    Not sure how representative this sample is, but notice how much miles and hours traveled fall at night.
    https://www.transportation.gov/connections/estimating-vehicle-hours-travel

    Then compare to the fatality rates by time of day.
    https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/overview/crashes-by-time-of-day-and-day-of-week/

    For those who are unable to figure it out on their own, here are some reasons driving at night tends to be less safe.
    https://www.nsc.org/road-safety/safety-topics/night-driving

    P.S. By no means would I advocate banning night driving, but hopefully you understand that AE was presenting a thought experiment?

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
  41. Thomm says:
    @Dumbo

    Remember that a lot of the women that these men had children with are white.

    Quincy Jones, in particular, only reproduced with white women.

  42. @Ash Williams

    I learned that there’s no winning sometimes, is about all. ;-}

  43. @Adam Smith

    Thank you!

    Great comment.

    • Thanks: Adam Smith
  44. Bill says:

    “Panic” is hardly an apt characterization of the lethargic, lackadaisical, nearly non-existent US response to ncovid-19. The survey results are explained by the fact that 5% of survey respondents routinely don’t understand the questions they are being asked.

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
  45. @SFG

    SFG, did you see Paul Kersey’s latest column, regarding a big rally back in early February in NYC, against the virus? “What do you think about this Corona Virus out of Wuhan?” “I’m against it!” Yes, lots of people in Manhattan Chinatown rallied together, pretty close together, as a show of strength against this godless virus.

    Peak Stupidity had a hearty virtual-belly-laugh with this one, in the post “Be Strong, Wuhan!”. (Caution: occasional KIZZ music, NSFM! – Not Safe For Millennials)

  46. @Bill

    As I’ve been saying, it’s not panic, it’s theater. The Western politicians are using this to posture, to grandstand, the attack political enemies, to advance hobbyhorses, and to engage in pointless dick-wagging contests. Witness the Democrats shutting down the stimulus vote in the Senate as we speak.

    In other words, it’s business as usual for them. They don’t mind crashing the economy and putting millions of people out of work as long as they can use it for some narrow partisan goal. They won’t personally suffer from shortages and joblessness, so what the hell do they care? The cynicism on display is breathtaking.

  47. Michael S says:

    Truck driving fatalities are (mostly) linear. Virus spread is exponential.

    Truck driving fatalities are counted annually. Virus has been out of containment for less than 1 month.

    I thought you were good at math.

  48. @TomSchmidt

    Recall that you are writing from a society that pays for healthcare for all

    Not sure I would phrase it like that, the German health care system is insurance-based, it’s not like Britain’s NHS. But I get your point. There are similar debates in Germany and Europe though about the economic viability of lockdown measures and for long they can be sustained.

    Build a moat around the old and sick, and use unemployed young people to provide services

    That sounds nice in theory, but this will also be a huge logistical challenge, given the age structure and number of risk groups in Western societies. Such an approach over many months will also entail high costs and unless it’s implemented perfectly, there could still be many deaths among risk groups.
    The other issue is that Covid-19 isn’t entirely non-dangerous to younger age groups either. Even for the youngest mortality is higher than with the flu, and for those over 50 (that is well within working age) it already seems to be over 1%. So even if you let it only spread through the entire population under 60 (and how to implement that? Quarantine everybody over 60? And many people over 60 are also still working and can’t always be replaced that easily), the aggregated number of deaths won’t be completely negligible.
    But unfortunately there aren’t any really good options now, so I suppose we’ll just have to wait and see how this turns out.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  49. @iffen

    What is the efficacy of ventilators?

    Why does anyone think that pumping oxygenated air into a lung filled with fluid, is a sensible thing to do?

    Why are is the first step not thoracentesis? It’s possible that there’s a valid reason for it, but fucked if I can think of it.

    On the face of it, it really seems that the ~0.04% of the population at genuine risk – the ones requiring ICU beds – are probably being subjected to a therapy that is doomed to fail.

    .

    Anyhow – as I’ve said elsewhere for weeks now… it’s great that this bullshit hysteria has helped identify the gullible – it will be awesome to be able to use it against them once this bullshit is proved to be a nothingburger.

    Future comments to Chicken Littles (on any subject whatsoever)

    Chicken Little: Buk-buk-buk 4D chess. Buk-buk-buk border wall. Buk-buk-buk HBD, Buk-buk-BukAAAAK!!!!

    Human: Fuck off, idiot. You fell for the coronahoax – the easiest thing to be right about in the 21st century to date.

    • LOL: Twodees Partain
    • Replies: @The Wild Geese Howard
  50. @A123

    That doesn’t explain the mass surge in “right wing” personalities shilling for “we need to just get back to work and pay your bills, deadbeat”

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  51. @German_reader

    Such an approach over many months will also entail high costs and unless it’s implemented perfectly, there could still be many deaths among risk groups.
    I’d wager that the costs are much lower than the current approach. As to perfect? We don’t achieve that in this lifetime. We can drive down the transmission rate. It might be necessary to have healthy younger workers live in concentrations of older people; disruptive, to be sure, but it would allow the whole society to continue unimpeded in the under-50 set (which I’m no longer a member of…)

    Even for the youngest mortality is higher than with the flu
    From here: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eci.13222

    The most complete data come from Diamond Princess
    passengers, with CFR=1% observed in an elderly cohort; thus, CFR may be much lower than 1%
    in the general population; probably higher than seasonal flu (CFR=0.1%), but not much so.

    Of all the deaths attributed in NYC so far, none were of people under 45, and the majority were over 70. The over-70 fatality rate is something dreadful to behold, however.

    how to implement that? Quarantine everybody over 60?
    Yes. Keeping older people from getting sick means that you lose a lot fewer lives in that cohort, and you also save respirators for the exposed young. This was actually proposed in the Imperial College paper, but rejected. Interesting fact is that your Dutch neighbors seem to be taking this approach to the problem.

    My guess is that the Dutch wind up out of this with a not-too-bad death rate and a much lower cost. We will have to see; at least we have another dataset to challenge the approach taken by the USA and UK.

    But unfortunately there aren’t any really good options now, so I suppose we’ll just have to wait and see how this turns out.
    That’s the sad reality. We could change shortly to a quarantine the elderly approach, but we will not. I hope Germany continues its excellent results so far, and hope NY tracks Germany and not Italy. Stay well.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  52. @TomSchmidt

    I hope Germany continues its excellent results so far

    I very much doubt that tbh, imo so far Germany has been just lucky (epidemic here started probably relatively late, and seems to be concentrated in younger age groups so far). There are a lot of reports about stunning incompetence and severe shortages of crucial equipment like even basic protective gear for medical personnel. So I expect this to get a lot uglier in the coming weeks.

    Stay well.

    Thanks, all the best to you as well.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  53. @Michael S

    HOW exponential is the issue? From here:
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eci.13222

    Exaggerated exponential community spread: At face value, the epidemic curve of new
    cases outside China since late February is compatible with exponential community spread.
    However, reading this curve is very difficult. … China data are more compatible with close contact rather than wide community spread being the main mode of transmission.

    If true, that means that most of the “extreme measures” have been wasted. The author continues:

    Evidence is lacking for the most aggressive measures. A systematic review on measures
    to prevent the spread of respiratory viruses found insufficient evidence for entry port screening
    and social distancing in reducing epidemic spreading.10 Plain hygienic measures have the
    strongest evidence.10,11 Frequent hand washing and staying at home and avoiding contacts when
    sick are probably very useful. Their routine endorsement may save many lives. Most lives saved
    may actually be due to reduced transmission of influenza
    rather than coronavirus.

    Interesting paper.

  54. @German_reader

    There are a lot of reports about stunning incompetence and severe shortages of crucial equipment like even basic protective gear for medical personnel.

    Man, you can always count on Germans for an overly-pessimistic assessment. I’ve advised employers to keep a German on board for that purpose; you guys seem unable to obfuscate given “the recent unpleasantness.” My guess is it’s one reason why your CFR is more than an order of magnitude less than Italy. And will continue to be so.

    At least some sense has come from this:
    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-stops-accepting-refugees-over-coronavirus/a-52826716

    • Replies: @German_reader
  55. @iffen

    And the flip side?

    When[1] the Chicken Littles are wrong, do their cognitive superiors get to execute them? (Humanely, of course).

    Chance would be a fine thing.

    The key observable thing about millenarian ‘End of Days’ forecasts is that when they fail to materialise, the gullible fuckwits who fall for them just wipe their minds and wait for the next trigger.

    .

    Your side of the argument is also representative of people who only think about the surface: complete ignorance of Bastiat’s TWINS (That Which Is Not Seen).

    At the most cursory level, the Chicken Little argument ignores that there will be suicides as a result of these ‘precautionary’ clampdowns. The longer the clampdown goes on, the more suicides there will be: nothing will exacerbate the mental-health aspects of financial difficulty more reliably, than encouraging people to shut themselves inside.

    People do stupid shit when their businesses fail; farmer suicides are a good example (and a likely uncounted social cost of trade war against China).

    Quite apart from that, there will be people who hear stupid shit like ‘5% of people will die’, and abandon all hope.

    I might think both those things are fucking retarded, but the average individual is an imbecile, so it’s difficult to gauge how they will react to weeks’ or months’ worth of massively-inaccurate stories of Armageddon being shoved down their throats on TV.

    Suicides will be concentrated much closer to the median – age- and health-wise – and so have a vastly higher average social cost.

    Each suicide brought on by despair directly related to this histrionic government response to a nothingburger, will cost about 40 years of quality-adjusted lifespan.

    Contrast that with the overwhelming evidence that deaths from coronavirus cost much much less (if the average age of the victims is 80, then the centre-mass of the distribution of the quality-adjusted years lost is about 6 months).

    So a single suicide will cost between 40 and 80 times as much ‘life energy’ as the average coronavirus death.

    100 additional suicides will cost the same – in quality-adjusted years of life – as at least 4000 representative coronavirus deaths.

    That’s on you – even if the scale of the coronavirus problem is what you’ve been convinced to believe[2].

    .

    Virtue-signalling ‘World Improvers’ often criticise ‘numbers people’ (like me) because we are supposedly brutally indifferent to individual suffering… and then those same people will push a solution where a moment’s thought makes it clear that the proposed solution has predictable side effects that are orders of magnitude more severe.

    But fuck – if it means there are ICU beds available for people already within 6 months of death? Totally worth it, if your mind is a blank.

    [1] When, not if.

    [2] It isn’t though.

  56. songbird says:
    @German_reader

    Merkel (who has now been put under quarantine herself, lol). But unfortunately that’s probably too optimistic, could just as well reinforce the stranglehold on power by existing elites.

    I thought that recent corona speech Merkel made was pretty weird. I mean, I probably didn’t see the whole text, but I felt that there was something very alien and superficial about it. It felt like her primary goal was to tear down the boundaries of power, and she, being a globalist, didn’t know how to appeal to Germans on any cultural or ethnic level, except by referring to historical permutations of power in Germany.

    I believe Macron also mentioned war. From my standpoint, since modern European politics seem to be dominated by shadows of WW2, it seems kind of bizarre and unhealthy and vapid to evoke war, in lieu of actual identity, but, maybe, I’m making too much of it.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  57. @TomSchmidt

    At least some sense has come from this:
    https://www.dw.com/en/germany-stops-accepting-refugees-over-coronavirus/a-52826716

    Not true according to what I’ve read, borders aren’t closed for asylum seekers. The borders in the east and south are closed de facto, because Poland, the Czech Republic and Austria have all sealed their borders. But if some Somali tried to enter Germany via France and claimed asylum, he would be granted entry…whereas French or other EU citizens would be turned away (yes, Germany really is that crazy).
    Regarding medical equipment: Germany probably has an advantage in that the number of ventilators is relatively high and that the health care system hasn’t been impacted quite as severely by budget cuts as in Italy. But according to many reports even basic protective gear like face masks is in very short supply even for medical personnel. The minister of health Spahn (a homosexual careerist with a degree in political science) was warned as early as 5 February by industry representatives about possible shortages (partly caused by China buying massive quantities of such equipment/stopping exports of them). But he did basically nothing for weeks. Now there are claims that some hospitals could run out of protective equipment as early as the end of this month, when the epidemic hasn’t even really begun yet. Total political failure.

    • Replies: @TomSchmidt
  58. @songbird

    I thought that recent corona speech Merkel made was pretty weird.

    I didn’t watch it, according to what I’ve read it was just her usual sermon, with her trying to deflect attention from the failures of her own government (apparently she didn’t say anything about what she actually intends to do about the crisis, she clearly doesn’t have any coherent strategy) and putting all the responsibility on citizens. She’s always been rhetorically challenged, but that probably works to her advantage, since many people mistake her platitudes for moderation and good sense, and her total lack of charisma and oratorical power makes her sort of an anti-Hitler.
    German politicians are completely unable to appeal to any sort of national solidarity, since all they’ve been doing for the last 20 years or so is incessant lecturing about the evils of racism, nationalism, Islamophobia etc. It’s interesting that Italy seems to be very different, even a vaguely left-wing populist like Di Maio writes things like siamo una grande nazione to motivate Italians during this crisis.

    I believe Macron also mentioned war.

    Have mixed feelings about that, on some level it feels like posturing, but on the other hand, it at least conveys that this is a serious crisis. Too bad that Macron contradicted his own words somewhat when he let the municipal elections on 15 March go ahead, which was quite irresponsible imo (same thing happened in Bavaria on the same day btw, although it was already clear by that time that many vacationers had brought the virus back to Bavaria from Italy and Austria).

    • Replies: @songbird
  59. @res

    For whatever reason, you missed the point. It follows my suggestion “Read on…”

    • Replies: @res
  60. @songbird

    Wtf are you babbling about? There is not a single ‘Aryan’ feature in his person and the surname ‘Trebek’ is ethnik as fuck. Is it sarcasm or is songbird a coping ethnik?

  61. Twinkie says:
    @iffen

    What is the efficacy of ventilators?

    Ventilators are not a treatment for Covid-19. What seems to happen with critical patients with Covid-19 is that there is significant inflammation of their lungs and they are not able to breathe on their own. So intubation and ventilators (with positive pressure) are used to keep them breathing (and alive) while their own immune system fights off the virus and they – hopefully – recover.

    I don’t know the exact causes of the deaths in Italy, but I suspect that it’s not that “ventilators are not working,” but that the patients are not recovering and suffering further life-threatening complications (lungs, heart, etc.).

    • Thanks: iffen
  62. @Twinkie

    Rural America is a lot more spread out and I would trust rural Whites to wash their hands more than New Yorkers. The other big factor is public transportation.

    If it gets out of hand then Trump will have to cut flights to New York.

    I could even see it making sense to military quarantine all of NYC.

    Sounds like a movie but if you look at a map of NYC it is completely doable.

    We can’t squash it on other areas only to have New Yorkers fly all over the place.

    • Replies: @anon
  63. @Intelligent Dasein

    I’m all for cash assistance in this scenario but the pols still don’t understand Black people.

    If you give them checks there will be a spike in crime from increased robberies which will lead to more hospital beds being used.

    It probably makes more sense to extend sick pay or unemployment benefits for certain industries but our dumb government would probably take another 2 weeks trying to figure that out.

    Trump and Pelosi actually had a deal last week on the relief bill but liberal Democrats now want diversity quotas and 10k in student debt forgiveness.

    So just hand out the Trump bucks. Maybe it will be a lesson for the “universal income” left. I’ll be buying a gun with mine.

    • Agree: West Reanimator
  64. anon[213] • Disclaimer says:
    @John Johnson

    If it gets out of hand then Trump will have to cut flights to New York.

    Florida leads the way.

    https://www.newsday.com/news/nation/florida-new-york-quarantine-1.43407093

    TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday he is issuing an executive order mandating that anyone arriving on a flight from New York City and the surrounding area submit to self-quarantine for two weeks.

    DeSantis said in an address from his Tallahassee office that more than 100 such flights arrive daily in the state and he believes each contains at least one person infected with the new coronavirus.

  65. Lot says:

    The harm isn’t reflected by the loss in GDP.

    Many of us would like to work less but can’t. A forced vacation isn’t ideal as a solution, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t offsetting benefits from more leisure time, less pollution, cheaper gas, etc.

    Even the crap GOP bill reduces economic inequality, the Dem version even more so. That’s another benefit.

  66. @John Johnson

    I’ll be buying a gun with mine.

    Excellent. I’ve got enough, but I’d have gone to the gun show a few weeks back anyway, but I was sure they’d cancelled it. Whatever money I get will be already slated to pay tax remaining for ’19. I guess I could invest it in something safe with a good return in the meantime, and …

  67. Those numbers make complete sense, if you realize that some blacks consider Idris Elba a colleague and some Hispanics consider Placido Domingo a personal friend.

  68. @Kratoklastes

    You know K-Man, there are some things you and I definitely disagree about, but I just have to say your posts throughout this coronavirus nonsense have been stellar.

  69. @German_reader

    But if some Somali tried to enter Germany via France and claimed asylum, he would be granted entry…whereas French or other EU citizens would be turned away (yes, Germany really is that crazy).

    Ah. There are FAR too many level-headed Germans to say this of the country, but your leadership has gone to (my favorite German word) Wolkenkuckkucksheim.

    Since I’d REALLY like to get back to Bayreuth some day, please hold it together.

  70. dfordoom says: • Website
    @iffen

    If we survive, some of us are going to remember those that advocated for just letting it tear through.

    And yes, I will be taking names.

    Boris Johnson would have to be at the top of your list.

    I don’t disagree with you, but unfortunately it is necessary to do a balancing act. If the economy is destroyed the elderly and the vulnerable will be worse off (and the eventual death toll could be much higher).

    The worst possible response was the Boris Johnson response. Do nothing at all for weeks until the virus is well and truly established, then turn on a dime and go for such draconian measures that social and economic ruin are almost certain.

    What we’re seeing is the complete inability of western liberal democracy to cope with an actual crisis. In liberal democracies politicians will always put political expediency first and when that leads to disaster they will always panic.

    We’re also witnessing the total failure of free markets. The US is the mightiest empire in history but can’t produce simple face masks.

    • Replies: @iffen
    , @iffen
  71. @John Johnson

    If you give them checks there will be a spike in crime

    And if you don’t give them checks there will be a spike in crime.

    What to do, what to do..

  72. Brett says:

    You aren’t counting the presumptive positives. There are many more tests done on both state levels and through university labs. But they haven’t been CDC confirmed.

  73. Update: Trump is apparently getting pretty pissed off about the self-styled heldendoktoren like Fauci thinking that they can hold the economy hostage while they engage in their War of the Worlds cosplay.

    In any case, the following soundbites indicate that Trump appears to have made up his mind:
    “This is a medical problem. We are not going to let it turn into a long-lasting financial problem.”
    “You look at automobile accidents. Which are far greater than any numbers we’re talking about. That doesn’t mean we’re going to tell everybody no more driving of cars.”
    “If it were up to the doctors, they may say let’s keep it shut down — let’s shut down the entire world.”
    “You can’t do that with a country — especially the No. 1 economy anywhere in the world, by far. … You can’t do that. It causes bigger problems than the original.”
    “I will be listening to … experts. We have a lot of people who are very good at this. It’s a balancing act. You know the expression, we can do two things at one time.”

    Read the whole thing here: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/1-3-americans-ordered-stay-inside-global-covid-19-infections-pass-350k-live-updates

    And here once again is a link to the Wattsupwiththat daily updated epidemiology page: https://wattsupwiththat.com/daily-coronavirus-covid-19-data-graph-page/

    • Thanks: Audacious Epigone
  74. songbird says:
    @German_reader

    Remarkable how Italy, one of the most artificial nations in Europe on an ethnic level, displays a stronger nationalism than most other European countries.

    I suppose that the EU is in many ways a failed project, but I’ve wondered if there were some accidental benefits from the strange union of Northern Europe and Southern Europe. Maybe, it’s just my imagination – I mean, how many migrants have been waved through over the years? But still I wonder if there isn’t some positive aspect that might be more apparent in the future.

    • Replies: @LoutishAngloQuebecker
  75. Rosie says:
    @TomSchmidt

    And now the young and poor without $400 for an emergency are being mass-unemployed to save the old and rich.

    If I am not mistaken, part of the danger of the virus is that, with an overloaded health care system, you can wind up dying of something that has nothing to do with the virus itself, like an allergic reaction to a bee sting.

    I’m not saying this isn’t an overreaction. It may well be, but I suspect that we’ll never really know for sure.

    • Agree: Twinkie
  76. Thomm says:
    @SafeNow

    Yes, but Wilt did not have many children (perhaps none).

    Magic Johnson also supposedly had sex with thousands of women, but didn’t have that many out of wedlock children.

  77. Thomm says:
    @Thomm

    I have to add more to the list. Mainly because I failed to include Isaac Hayes with his 14 children :

    Elijah Muhammad : 23
    George Foreman : 10
    Ray Charles : 12 (!!!)
    Sammy Davis Jr. : 4
    Harry Bellafonte : 4
    Richard Pryor : 7
    James Brown : 13
    Sidney Poitier : 6
    Fats Domino : 8
    Louis Farrakhan : 9
    MLK : 4 (would have had more)
    Ralph Abernathy : 5
    Jesse Jackson : 6
    Muhammad Ali : 9
    Mike Tyson : 8
    Evander Holyfield : 11
    Berry Gordy : 8
    Jackie Jackson : 4
    Jermaine Jackson : 7
    Stevie Wonder : 9 (!!!)
    Quincy Jones : 7
    Barry White : 9
    Isaac Hayes : 14
    Bob Marley : 9 (not an American, technically, but still).
    Philip Bailey : 7
    Bill Cosby : 5
    Larry Holmes : 5
    Fred Williamson : 6
    Morgan Freeman : 4
    Yaphet Kotto : 6
    Eddie Murphy : 10
    Wesley Snipes : 5
    Doug Williams : 8
    Kareem Abdul-Jabbar : 5
    Michael Jordan : 5
    Scottie Pippen : 5
    Karl Malone : 7
    Shaquille O’Neal : 5
    Emmitt Smith : 4
    William ‘Fridge’ Perry : 4
    Deion Sanders : 5
    P Diddy : 6
    Master P : 7
    Ice Cube : 4

  78. @216

    Senator Harris isn’t a mindless libertarian freak.

  79. @songbird

    The poz ignored Italy because the real threat comes from the northern euros. Italians will never do shit, or be relevant on a global scale.

    Also their clannish cultures, combined with increased chutzpah gives them better immunity.

    Italy also has quite little to be ashamed of. Ie. Little colonization, no nazi past, etc. Most white nations have a national founding guilt narrative to keep the whites in line.

  80. iffen says:
    @dfordoom

    I don’t disagree with you, but unfortunately it is necessary to do a balancing act. If the economy is destroyed the elderly and the vulnerable will be worse off (and the eventual death toll could be much higher).

    I agree. Since I’m older, I was being facetious. I think that we need to make decisions as we get better information. The economy will recover from 2-3 weeks of shut-down, but there should be a limit. It may turn out that us boomers will just have to self-isolate and let the others get on with their lives.

    The worst possible response was the Boris Johnson response.

    I was disappointed that he reversed course. I wanted to see what the effect would be, even though the extreme variations among the many countries have not been explained. Anyway, Britons are well acquainted with death panels, aka health care rationing, so they shouldn’t have been too much alarmed.

    What we’re seeing is the complete inability of western liberal democracy to cope with an actual crisis.

    It’s been that way here in the US since the ’70’s. I’m not sure that it will make any difference in the populace. Democrats are playing politics as usual, so evidently they don’t see a downside for themselves.

    We’re also witnessing the total failure of free markets. The US is the mightiest empire in history but can’t produce simple face masks.

    Hopefully this will catch the eye of many, but who knows?

  81. iffen says:
    @dfordoom

    The US is the mightiest empire in history but can’t produce simple face masks.

    It can certainly be viewed as reaping what we have sown as we boomers were on watch when it all slipped away.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
  82. gate666 says:
    @The Germ Theory of Disease

    stop believing the rubbish written in the bible.

  83. @German_reader

    Deaths from car accidents are a tragedy, but they don’t bring a modern health care system to collapse, like this Covid-19 epidemic conceivably could.

    I’ve seen it posted somewhere else in UR comments, but US hospitals are challenged to handle Fridays and Saturday evenings. An ER nurse I once knew used to also crack jokes about being swamped during full moons. Corona-Chan is not big, but it is likely to be big enough in the short-term to tax a marginally functional critical care system.

    The 2018 US all-cause mortality rate was roughly 724 per 100k. Of that, the NVSS attributes 40 per 100k to chronic lower respiratory diseases, but that is a very specific subset. By comparison, the UK stats attribute roughly 10% to 13% of their weekly death stats to all respiratory diseases. This would suggest that the equipment and people to handle what is essentially a wicked respiratory disease simply aren’t there, as a rational healthcare system would have just enough to cover the knowable flow of cases plus some (likely thin) margin for prudence; but that’s not news to anyone since we are seeing it play out. The current death-rate from Corona-Chan is enough to tax the current system, but will likely settle down to some manageable number as it works through the low-hanging fruit and as healthcare facilities for respiratory problems are beefed up.

    • Replies: @Tusk
  84. @iffen

    Cuomo and de Blasio both stalled on closings and social distancing for critical weeks.

    Maybe they saw this as an opportunity to take back control of New York.

  85. @Talha

    “ Bring the Guillotine Back to Death Row
    A quick, painless, gruesome way to carry out capital punishment”

    Is it painless? Go on, you go first 😉

    Anyway, the problem isn’t the means of execution, it is the willingness to carry it out and to do so in an expeditious manner.

    • Replies: @Talha
  86. @Talha

    Whatever did anyone decide was so wrong with hanging? Done properly it should be broken neck and instant death, without the grizzly decapitation (and don’t give me the ‘it’s hard to get right’ BS; what, calculating the proper height based on body weight isn’t something easy like perfectly balancing and timing the chemical cocktail of a lethal injection for the many possible body weights/resistances to the drug?).

    • Replies: @Talha
  87. Most Americans can’t even spell their own last names, and you’re going to trust a poll like this??

    What a maroon!

  88. Talha says:
    @Athletic and Whitesplosive

    Don’t know man. Hanging seems pretty cheap compared to whatever they do now also. Though…if you get the height to body weight ratio wrong you may well be dealing with a decapitation situation anyway…just sayin’

    Peace.

  89. Talha says:
    @The Alarmist

    Read the article…he’s the one making the points. And yes, if I was to be executed, I wouldn’t mind decapitation to be honest. It’s probably at my top two preferred methods to go versus the bottom of my list which includes being flayed alive, set on fire and tossed into a pit with these homeboys* (which seem to be large jaws with legs):

    Peace.

    *Speaking of which…this is sound advice for anyone ever caught in this situation:
    “One thing is for certain: When given the choice of surrendering or taking chances in a crocodile-infested swamp, choose surrender. Don’t mess with mother nature.”
    “Of the 1,000 troops who entered the swamp on Ramree Island, only a reported 480 survived…However, death toll estimates vary. What the British do know for sure is that 20 men came out of the swamp alive and were captured. These Japanese troops told their captors about the crocodiles.”
    https://allthatsinteresting.com/ramree-island

  90. Virus or no virus three times a week at least it’s out for a brisk walk —-

    Virus or no virus I only avoid people because I don’t trust their motives when walking alone at night which when I walk.

    Virus or no virus I remain as prudent as ever about these rumors of wars and actual wars —

    What is sucking the country dry are needless military interventions that have outstripped the country’s ability to pay

    Lousy government accounting

    And economic system that is increasingly operating of financials not linked to tangible products.

    And the mechanisms used to measure the same in which debt, overhead and expenses are counted as profits or assessts.

    Failure of accountability . . .

    My suspicions, we could address the virus issue ans with most of these by spending far less

    more government money . . . more debt in the system . . .

    Russian roulette of financial management.

  91. res says:
    @Mr McKenna

    Are you really this dumb? (but keep on doubling down, I enjoy watching what happens when people finally realize what they said was stupid) Here is the rest of your comment:

    Why not consider that most of the driving you prohibit in one half of the diurnal cycle would simply shift to the other half, vastly (and likely disproportionately) increasing its fatality rate?

    Given that there is much less driving at night–and the reasons I linked for why driving at night is less safe–why would you expect the displaced driving to do anything other than substantially lower the overall fatality rate? As well as the absolute number of fatalities–which is after all the number that really matters.

    Would it help if I gave some hypothetical numbers? You were criticizing others for innumeracy, weren’t you?

    • Replies: @Mr McKenna
  92. @iffen

    The main problem I see with boomers is that they are all stuck firmly in race denial. So we don’t have a party or ideology that is open to looking at the biology of race and how it might affect culture or policy. Both sides engage in their own forms of bulls–t.

    Boomer conservatives are some of the worst. They seem completely incapable of thinking critically about race. I really don’t get it. Perhaps before the internet but today I really don’t see how anyone can have access to Google and still believe that we can turn Detroit into paradise with the right mixture of Christianity and Randian economics. It only takes an evening on Google to see that your liberal profs were lying about race merely being a social construct.

    Boomer libs at least seem aware that they are a bit fuzzy on race and wisely avoid serious discussion. Boomer conservatives annoy the crap out of me because they walk around making comments about how libs are emotional and uncomfortable with facts.

    Talking to boomers about race is like talking to flat earthers about satellites. It’s bizarre that we are expected to address them at such a puerile level and pretend all arguments are equally valid.

    • Agree: Mr. Rational
    • Troll: Corvinus
  93. Mark G. says:

    Yesterday the governor of Indiana gave a stay at home order. I work for the army in accounting and today the Attorney General of the U.S. sent us all a memo saying we can still work and to carry the memo and our federal ID around with us in case we are stopped by the local police. I hope it doesn’t get to a point where the police are actually stopping people and challenging their right to be on the road but this action by the federal government seems to indicate that might happen.

    Police stopping people might actually help to spread the disease as numerous people have to roll down their car windows and talk to a police officer a few feet away. If me or the police officer possibly have coronavirus and we are passing papers back and forth and are standing a few feet away from each other while doing so is that really a good idea? Police stops might keep more people off the road but people who have to be on the road are put more at risk by such a policy. This includes both people working essential jobs and people performing essential tasks like going to the grocery store to get food, along with the police themselves.

    • Replies: @GU
  94. GU says:
    @for-the-record

    How much of this unemployment will be realized by immigrants (legal or otherwise) living in America? The distribution of the “pain” matters. COVID-19 is a once in a lifetime opportunity to flatten the “browning curve” in the U.S.

    Mandatory job preferences for US citizens. Stimulus payments only go to citizens. H1-b is on hold for the next few years. No asylum for x years. Tax repatriation payments (I.e., money sent from USA to people in foreign countries). Make it harder to become a citizen. Etc.

  95. Corvinus says:
    @Twinkie

    “None of you works in medicine and knows how fragile our nation’s intensive care system is to a pandemic threat.”

    EXACTLY!

  96. GU says:
    @Mark G.

    Anyone who leaves their home should be wearing a mask.

    • Replies: @Mark G.
  97. @Kratoklastes

    Why are is the first step not thoracentesis? It’s possible that there’s a valid reason for it, but fucked if I can think of it.

    I noticed this as well.

    Totally agree that it is strange this is not the first step. I would also think the pros would place high priority on trying to break up and remove mucus while suppressing further production. I can’t remember seeing any discussion of that perspective either.

  98. Mark G. says:
    @GU

    Anyone who leaves their home should be wearing a mask.

    Right now hospitals are facing shortages of masks. You can’t provide masks for everyone. You can ramp up production of face masks but by the time there is enough to go around for everyone the peak of the epidemic is likely to have passed. Medical personnel and the elderly should be prioritized as far as receiving masks since they are the ones most at risk. If you try to give people driving to the grocery store or to work masks, i.e. practically the entire adult U.S. population, then you won’t have enough in areas where they are really needed.

    • Replies: @GU
  99. GU says:
    @Mark G.

    Agree. The mask shortage is indefensible (but not the fault of normal people).

  100. @res

    Right, and we all enjoy people who throw puerile insults rather than address the actual points someone has made. Why, you help elevate the tone around here, don’t you.

    If you engaged your brain half as readily as you do your ego, you might have figured this out by now. Though it’s increasingly clear that time spent on you is wasted, I’ll point you even more carefully to what you continue to miss: the meaning of the word ‘disproportionately’.

    Traffic from the nighttime, much of which is OTR trucking by the way, would add tremendously to congestion if shifted to the daytime.

    If you’re even half as smart as you keep claiming, you can figure out the rest from that. I’m through trying to spoon-feed you. Bye now.

    • Replies: @res
  101. Tusk says:
    @The Alarmist

    An ER nurse I once knew used to also crack jokes about being swamped during full moons

    Oddly enough multiple health care workers have mentioned this to me too. Apparently dementia patients can be especially weird during full moons. If anywhere here has some explanation of this I’d like to know, but the people who mentioned it to me are all extremely rational and grounded so I don’t believe they’d say it lightly if it weren’t true to them.

    • Replies: @John Johnson
  102. res says:
    @Mr McKenna

    Right, and we all enjoy people who throw puerile insults rather than address the actual points someone has made. Why, you help elevate the tone around here, don’t you.

    It should be obvious that I am both addressing your points as well as throwing puerile insults. As for your tone policing, see the PS.

    It might also help if you backed up your points in more detail, rather than just asserting them.

    If you engaged your brain half as readily as you do your ego, you might have figured this out by now. Though it’s increasingly clear that time spent on you is wasted, I’ll point you even more carefully to what you continue to miss: the meaning of the word ‘disproportionately’.

    I guess I do have to spell things out in more detail for you. Let me know if I should use even smaller words or simpler math.

    Back in comment 41 I gave links for traffic and fatalities by time of day (remember what I said about addressing your points just above). Roughly eyeballing the traffic in the PDF linked there:
    https://www.volpe.dot.gov/sites/volpe.dot.gov/files/docs/Estimating-Vehicle-Hours-of-Travel.pdf
    And taking day to be 8AM-7PM (an approximation, feel free to provide data which allows a better assessment of day/night). We see about 9.2e9 vehicle miles at night (8PM-7AM) and 20e9 vehicle miles during the day (8AM-7PM). So call that 2x the traffic during the day.
    Looking at the crash link for fatal crashes:
    https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/overview/crashes-by-time-of-day-and-day-of-week/
    we see about 16,000 fatal crashes from 8PM-7:59AM and about 18,400 fatal crashes from 8PM-7:59AM for a total of 33,400 fatal crashes.

    Now let’s assume we eliminate nighttime driving. This prevents 16,000 fatal crashes while increasing daytime traffic a little under 50%. Assuming no increase in daytime fatality rate this would give 18,400 * 1.5 = 27,600 fatal crashes or a decrease of 6,800 fatal crashes (just over 20%)

    It is unclear to me how to estimate the increase in daytime fatal accident rate due to increased congestion. It would take an increase of just under 25% (in the rate) to bring the deaths back to parity. Which I find implausible. (keep in mind here as well that those high nighttime accident rates are happening at lower volumes)

    Here is a recent paper discussing accidents and congestion (with many further references):
    Current Understanding of the Effects of Congestion on Traffic Accidents
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6766193/

    The understanding of how congestion maps to accidents is surprisingly limited at present. It is also worth noting we are talking about fatal accidents here. Here is an excerpt from the paper. We can discuss it more if you like.

    Contrary to the Greek results, Shefer [17] hypothesized that when considering only fatal accidents, a bell-shaped curve would result from the relationship between v/c ratio and fatal accident frequency. Initially, as traffic density increases but a high rate of speed is still maintained, the number of fatal accidents rises at an increasing rate. As density increases further, speed is compromised and fatal accidents increase at a decreasing rate, before decreasing as congestion continues to reduce speeds [17]. While results from Frantzeskakis and Iordanis [14] do not appear to support this hypothesis, the small dip in accident rates at high traffic volumes observed by Raff [8], as well as the curve found by Veh [7] give plausibility to the idea.

    Let’s also keep in mind that you made a very specific statement in comment 18. Which was a big part of what caused me to react so strongly: “Daytime is safer? Read on..”

    And since you appear to have missed it the first time, here is the link for reasons driving at night is less safe. Plus a summary.
    https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/overview/crashes-by-time-of-day-and-day-of-week/
    Compromised Night Vision
    Fatigue
    Rush Hour (in particular, evening winter rush hour)
    Impaired Drivers

    If you’re even half as smart as you keep claiming, you can figure out the rest from that.

    Physician, heal thyself. And FWIW, I am not claiming that I am smart, just that you are being dumb here. (though SOME of your points are reasonable, it might be worth seeing if we can come up with a set of points we both agree on)

    I’m through trying to spoon-feed you. Bye now.

    LOL! Looking forward to seeing your math. What was that about you calling people innumerate again?

    P.S. This all started with your comment 18. You definitely took the high road in that one. Hypocrite.

    Dear Mr Amorphous: Since you made a big point about innumeracy in your essay, would you possibly reconsider the following?

    • Replies: @Audacious Epigone
  103. Sorry, too many comments to read, so the point may have already been raised. That said –

    I think there are a lot of “wishful self-diagnoses”. I have lost track of the number of my friends, including some otherwise statistically sophisticated and “grounded” ones, who suspect or believe they already lived through Corona in January or some other implausibly early date. I myself happened to have my first flu in three years this year in mid-January, and while thinking this makes me immune to Corona would be a “cope”, realistically I know that the chances of that being true are somewhere in the region of winning the lottery.

    That’s the first factor.

    The second factor is that people tend to overestimate in general. E.g., IIRC, Americans believe gays are something like 25% of their population, whereas in reality it is 3%.

  104. ““None of you works in medicine and knows how fragile our nation’s intensive care system is to a pandemic threat.”

    If the virus becomes so endemic that it becomes an epidemic . . . neither masks, nor distance are going to prevent a run on emergency care. There are not designed or intended to be stop gaps for such emergencies and even if there were they would still be unable to manage the numbers.

    ——————-

    I don’t wear a mask when I walk.

  105. @German_reader

    Parenthetically, with the car comparison I did try to think of something that has a not insignificant impact on the healthcare system as is. Reducing thousands or tens of thousands of fatal crashes presumably means reducing thousands or tens of thousands of driver and passenger hospital visits.

    • Replies: @German_reader
  106. nebulafox says:
    @Anatoly Karlin

    But aren’t there a fair amount of people who are asymptomatic? For all we know, there are a lot of people who have had or currently have the coronavirus without even knowing it.

    I’ve been feeling somewhat run-down as of late, but I don’t have a fever or other explicit symptoms, so the local hospital won’t test me. It’s understandable given that they need to allocate resources to those who need it, but I’d rather do my part and preemptively be one less person transmitting it, if by some chance I do have the virus already.

    >The second factor is that people tend to overestimate in general. E.g., IIRC, Americans believe gays are something like 25% of their population, whereas in reality it is 3%.

    It’s not just Americans. I’ve met plenty of people abroad who think that the US is far more black than it actually is: like, 1/3rd of the populace or something like that. In reality, they are something like 12, 13%, around the same percentage that Malays are in Singapore. (I think the official statistics are a bit less, but the government tends to be cagey about releasing exact demographics, so taking that into account…) Non-trivial, but definitely nowhere near as many as you’d infer from popular culture and media.

  107. @Twinkie

    Without feeling compelled to go into detail–though you’re of course welcome to–what’s your cost-benefit analysis regarding the current situation, particularly in the US? It feels like there are no easy answers.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
  108. @Mr McKenna

    Most driving–and even more ‘productive’ driving–takes place during the day. The traffic fatality rate is higher at night during the day.

    The reduction in fatalities wouldn’t be the total number of current nighttime fatalities, true, but it would presumably sizable. I didn’t intend it to be an especially rigorous example, just an illustration of how there are a lot of things that could be done to make society safer with much less economic disruption yet we collectively elect not to do them for various reasons. It’s not, as they say, who we are!

  109. @iffen

    *Gulp*

    I’m agnostic on our course of action.

    I’m confident, though, that the economic catastrophe we’re in the beginning stages of is far worse than most people imagine it will be. Far, far worse.

    • Agree: iffen
  110. @Michael S

    The virus spread in South Korea and China has ceased being exponential for several weeks now (if official reports are to believed).

  111. @Not my economy

    It’s beginning to dawn on people who are running the numbers that we are not merely staring down recession here but are looking at the collapse of the international credit system and a corresponding drastic decline in the American monetary standard of living.

  112. @Kratoklastes

    The suicide concern is not merely hypothetical:

    Suicide calls are up in Portland during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to police.

    Police chief Jami Resch says officers are seeing a 41 percent increase in suicide threats compared to 2019 and an increase of 23 percent compared to 10 days before the state of emergency.

    “This statistic is concerning and there are resources for those who are struggling,” Resch said. “I ask everyone to reach out by text, phone or video chat to family, friends and neighbors.”

    The chief clinical officer for Lines For Life says the organization is starting to see more calls from people experiencing high amounts of fear.

  113. @res

    Thanks for doing the heavy lifting on this one, pal!

  114. @Audacious Epigone

    Reducing thousands or tens of thousands of fatal crashes presumably means reducing thousands or tens of thousands of driver and passenger hospital visits.

    The comparison doesn’t work though, as pointed out by various commenters above car accidents just don’t have the potential for explosive growth that could break a health care system, like Covid-19 apparently could. You’re also forgetting the danger posed by it to hospital personnel which is another aggravating factor that doesn’t exist with something like car accidents. In China, Italy and Spain (presumably Iran as well) many doctors and nurses have gotten infected, with some of them dying from it (even a few people in their 20s and 30s btw, who probably got exposed to especially high viral loads). At the very least this means that affected health care personnel would have to be put under quarantine for weeks, increasing the strain on the rest of their co-workers. It could also mean that some health care workers eventually just quit out of self-preservation, all the more so if they’ve gotten the impression that political elites don’t care about their situation and regard them as expendable.
    I can understand the desire for a return to normalcy which imo is behind many calls for an end to restrictive lockdown measures, but imo there’s a lot of wishful thinking involved, letting this epidemic run its course unimpeded won’t restore anything like normalcy and could have absolutely horrifying consequences.

    • Agree: Twinkie
  115. Twinkie says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    cost-benefit analysis regarding the current situation, particularly in the US? It feels like there are no easy answers.

    You got that right. This is one of those situations in which there is no good option.

    My take on this is that the cost of overreaction is mostly economic, but the cost of underreaction is in lives.* And that’s why the cost benefit analysis is so hard, because we are weighing the material against human lives. Of course as a society we routinely make those trade offs, but usually such choices can be made deliberately. With a pandemic, the range of lesser evil choices narrows the longer there is indecision.

    I would rather we erred on the side of caution – money can be earned again and made up, however difficult that may be. Lost lives cannot be regained on this earth (unless the actual Apocalypse arrives).

    *There is also the chance that the underreaction not only creates a bigger pandemic and many more lives perish, but also generates a greater panic and brings forth a greater overreaction down the line that leads to worse economic impact than that brought by an early overreaction.

  116. @Twinkie

    In times like these, the soundest advice comes from the one-eyed poet Robert Creeley…

    I KNOW A MAN

    As I sd to my
    friend, because I am
    always talking, — John, I

    sd, which was not his
    name, the darkness sur-
    rounds us, what

    can we do against
    it, or else, shall we &
    why not, buy a goddamn big car,

    drive, he sd, for
    Christs sake, look
    out where yr going.

  117. Jay Fink says:
    @Twinkie

    I am in a city of 100k and one of our two hospitals went bankrupt and closed a couple of months ago. What perfect timing. The remaining hospital is a state of panic right now saying they will run out of equipment by April 8 and will have to choose which patients they can treat or let die. They made the NY Times a few days ago.

  118. iffen says:

    Well, duh, it’s dark at night.

    Anyway, when the corona virus finishes thinning the Boomer, the night driving accidents will go down significantly because we all have night blindness.

  119. iffen says:
    @Audacious Epigone

    Why does he get a bigger gulp?

    Just because I haven’t advertised my preparedness?

    I have cousins who have been buying ammo by the case for the last 30 years.

    You can’t even find large diameter PVC pipe at my local Lowe’s.

    Boomers stay home.

    Everyone else goes back to work and keeps paying his payroll taxes.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
  120. dfordoom says: • Website
    @Twinkie

    My take on this is that the cost of overreaction is mostly economic

    True, assuming that the economic damage is temporary. It might not be. In which case the cost of overreaction could possibly be a great deal of human misery, and perhaps even in the long term more lives lost. The problem is we just don’t know if we can put the economy into complete cardiac arrest and then get the heart restarted later. We’ve never tried it. This could, and I emphasise could, be worse than the Great Depression. And with a society that is a lot less functional in other ways than it was then.

    We just don’t know. We’re in uncharted waters.

    I’m not disagreeing with you that economic costs should be considered secondary to human life, but it is just conceivable that economic collapse could cost more lives. Economic collapse means the total collapse of the health system.

  121. @Tusk

    Oddly enough multiple health care workers have mentioned this to me too. Apparently dementia patients can be especially weird during full moons. If anywhere here has some explanation of this I’d like to know, but the people who mentioned it to me are all extremely rational and grounded so I don’t believe they’d say it lightly if it weren’t true to them.

    I’ve heard that women are more likely to go into childbirth during a full moon.

    Not sure if it is true but there is certainly a phenomenon in hospitals where birthing women show up in batches.

    I know this because my wife had to leave the maternity ward early to make space because one such batch had arrived.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
  122. @John Johnson

    It’s simple. That big moon’s gravity just pulls those babies right out the chute. SCIENCE!

  123. @Twinkie

    I would rather we erred on the side of caution – money can be earned again and made up, however difficult that may be. Lost lives cannot be regained on this earth (unless the actual Apocalypse arrives).

    No, lives can be lost in lots of ways, Twinkie. This trashing of the economy, resulting in a, what $6,000,000,000,000 push of Socialism, will have the effect of shorting many people’s lives. When you have to work 5 extra years to pay taxes to for what your forefathers borrowed, well, that’s a big chunk of your life, is it not?

    (Or we can just hyperinflate it all away into fairy dust, with the slight side effect of, well, the SHTF and turning 3rd world. Please read the fine print.)

  124. I think it’s definitely time to stop talking about the virus itself. The evidence is pretty overwhelming that the virus is a nothingburger and that the resposne has been political theater. I know there are people here who take the opposite position or who believe the jury is still out, but those sentiments will fade pretty quickly. It’s time to start talking about what’s going to happen moving forward, economically, electorally, socially, and so forth.

    Economically, I think the stock market is going to come roaring back here shortly. Once the stay at home orders are lifted and the stimulus trickles through, it will be just like any other QE only moreso. I don’t agree with this on principle any more than I agree with other QEs on principle; my point is only that it will happen and it will make everyone feel better about things in the short term. Some of the shuttered small businesses and restaurants will have difficulty bouncing back, but there will also be a huge pent up demand for services and nonessential goods that will be unleashed, and the animal spirits will pulsate like it’s morning in America. Heading into November, the economy will be looking damn good.

    Electorally, Americans are getting antsy and ready to get back to work. Trump will get ahead of this feeling as he usually does. By summer, he will be able to point (truthfully) to the fact that he was saying the virus fears were overblown and calling for a return to normalcy at a time when all the other politicians in the world were still cowering in their pee-soaked undies. Trump’s luck will strike again, and he will stride to substantial victory. He will throw Fauci, the CDC, and the WHO under the bus where they should have been all along.

    Socially, I think a lightbulb just went on above a whole lot of people’s heads regarding how incompetent, cynical, and full of crap the governing establishment is, especially crony Democrats like Cuomo. I have to say, I’m delighted by the fact that the Spring Breakers decided to continue partying instead of heeding the social distancing orders. Not that I condone Spring Break-style partying per se (which in and of itself partakes of the worst and trashiest elements of American dysfunction), but I’m glad to see that they prioritized their own lives and ignored the government’s BS. This will be a very formative moment seared into the memory of a whole generation, and the next time a similar stunt is tried they will be even more ready to igniore it.

  125. @Intelligent Dasein

    By the way, this is the last straw. I am switching browsers because I am freaking sick and tired of Microsoft Edge not catching my typos. Enough is enough.

    • Replies: @anon
    , @Achmed E. Newman
  126. songbird says:

    They’re now closing public schools in my state until at least May 4th – I’m surprised.

  127. Twinkie says:
    @iffen

    Why does he get a bigger gulp?

    Because I am scarier when I decide to go full-on death squad? Did you miss the part about one of my mentors being the man who ran the Salvadoran counter-insurgency?

    You don’t want to cross me in real life. 😉

    • Replies: @iffen
  128. anon[125] • Disclaimer says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    “intelligent” and “Microsoft Edge” are not words that generally go together, absent coercion.

    Switch to Brave immediately. It’s Brandon Eich’s reply to his defenestration from Mozilla.

  129. @Intelligent Dasein

    Except for the stock market prediction (cause I just don’t know), I agree very much with this comment. I noted in Peak Stupidity the other day that even the “Fight Club” Tyler Durdens at what used to be my favorite site, Zerohedge have turned into sniveling pussies. “Tyler” was all upset about the young people going out and living their lives.

    I wonder how many people got how many venereal diseases in the mud at Woodstock, NY, but you didn’t see the old people at the time telling them they’d better SHELTER IN PLACE instead.

  130. iffen says:
    @Twinkie

    You don’t want to cross me in real life.

    After seeing several trails of destruction that you have left behind, I’m skeered to even cross you in the virtual world of a comment thread.

    • LOL: Talha
  131. @Twinkie

    Put me on your death squad. I can finally make one of my mentors proud

    And this is what happens when the Tiger Mom fails and Sum Ting Wong can’t get into med school. Now he thinks he’s Bruce Lee and trying to get a job as a hired killer. Yet he seems to be missing the point that, should any Africans survive the China Flu pandemic, they might want to speak with our Sum Ting Wong about they mama (or auntie or baby mama) who succumbed to the yellow disease.

    I don’t think it’s going to be a good idea to be oriental anywhere near an “urban” area anytime soon. Our Ninja Twinkles might want to rethink his “toughest (censored) on the internets” persona assuming it occasionally reveals itself in real life. And should Bubba or Tex lose some dear people, the rural corners of the country may not be any safer.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
  132. Twinkie says:
    @Stan d Mute

    And this is what happens when the Tiger Mom fails and Sum Ting Wong can’t get into med school.

    I had zero interest in going to med school. I studied history. My wife is the STEM person.

    I was joking about the death squad thing. I’m a faithful Catholic, so I obviously don’t believe in, and in fact abhor, death squads.

    And, yes, one of my mentors ran the USMILGP in El Salvador and commanded the 7th SFG. So the topic of the Salvadoran government death squads – whose members raped and murdered American Catholic nuns – came up during our conversations.

    And should Bubba or Tex lose some dear people, the rural corners of the country may not be any safer.

    No, dummy, Bubba is going to ask me and my wife to get his dad on a ventilator, pretty, pretty, please. And he is going to be eternally grateful for saving his life.*

    As for blacks, they are something like 1% of the population where I live, and are physicians, executives, and government officials. They are not going to get into fights like ghetto hoods.

    *Because of who my wife and I are, suddenly we seem really popular. Everyone is texting or calling us for advice and supplies.

    • Agree: Johann Ricke
    • Replies: @Johann Ricke
    , @nebulafox
  133. @Twinkie

    Because of who my wife and I are, suddenly we seem really popular. Everyone is texting or calling us for advice and supplies.

    In a time of irreligion and pandemic, doctors are the new clergy.

    • Replies: @nebulafox
    , @Twinkie
  134. nebulafox says:
    @Twinkie

    >And, yes, one of my mentors ran the USMILGP in El Salvador and commanded the 7th SFG. So the topic of the Salvadoran government death squads – whose members raped and murdered American Catholic nuns – came up during our conversations.

    “Blowtorch Bob”.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
  135. nebulafox says:
    @Johann Ricke

    I’ve occasionally wondered whether shrinks have taken over some of the social functions that priests and their counterparts would have performed in a less secularized, more rural, and more intimate social environment.

    If true, no wonder we’re so screwed up.

    • Replies: @dfordoom
  136. dfordoom says: • Website
    @nebulafox

    I’ve occasionally wondered whether shrinks have taken over some of the social functions that priests and their counterparts would have performed in a less secularized, more rural, and more intimate social environment.

    Shrinks, social workers and “experts” have taken over all of the social functions of priests. And celebrities have taken over the functions of gods.

  137. Twinkie says:
    @Johann Ricke

    Our friends have been pretty respectful, but acquaintances – some who had not contacted us for years and, in one case, almost a decade – have been texting, emailing, and calling us nonstop about everything from medical advice to obtaining PPEs/masks/gloves to “reserving a spot in the ICU.”

    Some people are not cool and quite distatefully brazen.

    • LOL: Johann Ricke
  138. Twinkie says:
    @nebulafox

    To be crystal clear, my mentor was deployed to El Salvador AFTER the rape and murder of the nuns. He did not train the perpetrators (and if the perpetrators had been his trainees, he’d have shot them all).

    That dreadful incident happened during the end of the Carter years. President Reagan then sent my mentor and other Special Forces/CIA personnel to help the Salvadoran forces to become more effective and professional, an endeavor that is considered a success.

  139. Twinkie says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    I think it’s definitely time to stop talking about the virus itself. The evidence is pretty overwhelming that the virus is a nothingburger and that the resposne has been political theater.

    You are starting sound like the guy who kept doubling down on whites being immune to Covid-19.

    “Nothingburger”? Have you seen what ICUs at NYC hospitals look like?

    Read this article on what COVID-19 does to the lungs of the severely afflicted: https://www.propublica.org/article/a-medical-worker-describes–terrifying-lung-failure-from-covid19-even-in-his-young-patients

    People scoffed at this article when it first came out, because Louisiana had relatively few cases. Well, it has more than a few now.

    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
  140. @Twinkie

    Here’s the latest log-scale chart of cumulative deaths from Wattsupwiththat. It looks like Italy and Spain are starting to level off without yet breaking above the flu zone. Although Italy seems likely to do so soon, it won’t exceed flu mortality by very much. Even longsuffering Iran, with its substantially weaker capacity to react, has not even breached the flu zone from the lower bound.

    It still seems a lot like a nothingburger to me. What’s not a nothingburger, however, is our response. We just dumped $2.5 trillion of funny-money into the economy, mostly with the rapt approval of all and sundry. Even if corona turns out to be ten times deadlier than the flue (which I doubt), that’s still a nothingburger compared to the fact that we’ve gone to full blown bread and circuses and nobody batted an eye.

    • Replies: @Twinkie
    , @Twinkie
  141. Twinkie says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    without yet breaking above the flu zone

    Flu deaths are not over 30 days. Flu didn’t overwhelm the ICUs in Italy (or Spain). Do you understand that those Italian covid-19 patients over the age of 65 are now being refused ventilators, because of scarcity?

    We don’t even know what’s going to happen with future waves of covid-19 if any.

    If it’s a “nothingburger,” what don’t you go visit NYC and drop by some hospitals. For bonus points, don’t wear any masks.

    You are incorrigible.

    • Replies: @Robert Dolan
    , @iffen
  142. Twinkie says:
    @Intelligent Dasein

    By the way, those numbers likely represent a significant undercounting. We won’t know the true death toll until enough time has passed and we can count the excess deaths, because the current, incomplete figures only represent the confirmed cases. I suspect the death toll in the US will spike once the virus reaches the small towns and rural areas with sparse ICU coverage (I sincerely hope not…).

    I don’t ever remember hospitals doing this with the flu: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/a-new-york-hospital-desperate-for-ventilators-is-treating-two-patients-on-a-device-intended-for-one/2020/03/27/21c8ae7c-702a-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html

    A New York hospital is putting two patients at a time on ventilators intended for one, a stopgap move that reflects the desperate shortage of lifesaving breathing devices during the coronavirus pandemic.

    The procedure has never been studied in humans. It was briefly pressed into service in the emergency room of a Nevada hospital that ran short on ventilators during the 2017 mass shooting in Las Vegas and, according to an image on Twitter, in the past few days in Italy.

  143. @Twinkie

    In 2018 80K people died from the flu.

    Nobody cared.

    Today Anthony Fauci published a paper in the New England Journal of Medicine,
    says that Covid is a severe flu, death rate about the same as the flu at 0.1%.

  144. iffen says:
    @Twinkie

    those Italian covid-19 patients over the age of 65 are now being refused ventilators, because of scarcity?

    I keep reading that 97-98% of patients who are ventilated die. If that is true, then a scarcity of ventilators is not a contributing factor to the number of deaths.

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